Caribbean Dust, And New England The New Miami-Dade

Same two views on the island of St Barthelemy, before
the dust, top, and during the current outbreak of
Sarahan dust.  Photos by Mirco Ferro, via Twitter

We've got a this n' that post for you today, as the weather always fascinates.  Or at least gets weird pretty often.

So let's get started

SAHARA DUST

Time to head to a nice Caribbean island to enjoy the dust storms.

Wait, what?

I'm exaggerating when I'm calling the current weather in the tropical Atlantic a dust storm, but it is pretty damn dusty down there.

A huge plume of dust from the Sahara Desert in Africa has blown westward and is crossing the Atlantic Ocean.

Visibility on some islands was down to three miles or so, a sharp contrast to the deep blue skies and long views that residents and vacationers are accustomed to.

The dust will reach the U.S. Gulf Coast this week, causing hazy skies, beautiful sunrises and sunsets and maybe suppressing thunderstorms.

This cloud of dust from the Sahara desert actually isn't all that weird. These plumes of dust cross the Atlantic frequently from late spring to early fall.  This episode is just more intense than usual. Some observers are saying this plume is the thickest in five decades.

In one important respect, the dust clouds are a good thing, even if it does reduce visibility and hurt people with pre-existing respiratory problems.

The dust clouds suppress the thunderstorms needed to give birth to tropical storms and hurricanes. Such dangerous storms are much less likely when there is a plume of Sahara dust over the Atlantic.

It's early in the hurricane season now, so there probably wouldn't have been any tropical storms anyway this week, but if more dust clouds form and move out over the Atlantic, there's a chance it could reduce what is expected to be a busy hurricane season.

Don't count on that, though. Just because there's a big cloud of dust now doesn't mean it will keep happening with the same intensity all summer. and fall.  This just happens to be a random big outburst.

FLORIDA MOVES NORTH

Tropical style thunderstorm erupting Satiurday in Florida  oops
I mean Vermont. Things are a bit topsy turvy

The weather in New England has consistently been just like what you'd expect in Florida during the summer the past few days.

Heat waves hit New England almost every summer, of course. But this one has taken on the characteristics of a Florida summer.

In the Deep South, there are typically few major weather systems coming through in the summer. Cold fronts from Canada don't make it that far south, and no big storm systems come across the country to stir up the weather.  

Which means local conditions rule the roost when it comes to the weather.

In Florida's hot, humid weather sea breezes push inland, and form little weather fronts separating the marine air from the hotter conditions over land. These little weather fronts create just enough lift for daily thunderstorms in Florida during the summer.

Meanwhile, local updrafts  create more thunderstorms over interiror Florida.

Up here in New England, we're usually far enough north so that the usual roughly west to east flow of weather systems continues.  A cold front will come through with a burst of thunderstorms, followed by coolish, dry sunny weather, then a bout of hot, humid conditions, followed by another cold front, rinse and repeat.

You know the drill.

The past several days, and today, are featuring a pattern much more like Florida. There's no weather systems moving through, just a dome of hot, humid air over New England and southeastern Canada.

Which means New England is temporarily the new Miami-Dade. One of those sea breeze fronts created scattered thunderstorms a little inland from the coast in Massachusetts yesterday.

Meanwhile, local updrafts continued the daily rounds of scattered storms in interior New England. Unlike Florida, we have mountains, which are more than enough to create the initial updrafts to create those slow moving thundersetorms. They pop up, dump a big downpour on a small area, then dissipate. Then a few more form and do the same thing until the sun sets.

We'll finally revert back to typical northern weather patterns starting Tuesday.  The west to east flow of systems will resume.  A couple weak cold fronts will come through, creating a better chance of showers and storms later Tuesday and Wednesday.

The heat will then diminish, at least for awhile, starting at the end of the week.

Speaking of heat, Burlington has a shot of tying the record for the most 90 degree days in the month of June. The record is seven, set in 1949.

We've had five such days this June, and we are on track to tie the 1949 record. High temperatures in Burlington are expected to reach 90 degrees today and tomorrow.

Long, Drawn Out Vermont Hot Spell Starts Today

Blue skies as far as the eye could see yesterday in Vermont as
a spell of very warm weather starts. This is looking north from
St. Albans, Vermont. You can make out hills in the distance
near Montreal. 

In those relatively rare occasions when Vermont goes for days on end of very warm to hot often humid weather, these spells almost always wait until July and August to happen. June hot spells usually last a day or two, then fade away pretty quickly.

Not this time.

Starting today, we are in for an early version of a lenghty hot spell, one that could conceivably last until next Wednesday.

At first, the humidity won't feel too bad at all. Notice how refreshing it felt early this morning.  By this afternoon, most of us will be well into the 80s.

Humidity levels will slowly come up. By the weekend and early next week, it will feel quite oppressive.

All his is part of a larger weather pattern that will keep a very warm dome of air - a high pressure system - especially over much of New England and southeastern Canada.

Some record highs are possible in parts of northern Maine and southern Quebec.

Here in Vermont, it doesn't really look like we'll have record highs -- with daily daytime readings expected to be well into the 80s to around 90 through early next week. Forecast highs in Burlington, for instance are between 86 and 88 degrees today through next Tuesday.

The fact that it has been so dry will help afternoon temperatures get warmer than they otherwise would.

If there were a lot of ground moisture from heavy rains, that moisture would percolate into the atmosphere, making it even more humid, but suppressing temperatures a bit.  The pre-existing dryness will help boost temperatures.

The dryness will be an increasing problem for most of us during this spell of very warm weather.  Starting Friday, then ramping up a little bit over the weekend and early next week, the warm, humid air will help fire up some scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Most of these storms would be in the higher terrain. They'll be slow movers, so those lucky enough to get hit by one of these things will get some needed downpours. The trouble is, most of us will miss out, or get so little rain from the edges of these storms that it won't make a difference.

What I regard as a developing drought will only get worse during this hot spell.

It's unclear when any kind of cold front will sweep through with some refreshing air.  The best guess now is next Wednesday. If we're lucky, the cold front come come a day or so sooner than that. If we're unlucky, we'll need to wait until the end of next week to see any relief.

Tropical Trouble And A Cold New England

A big area of ugly weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico might
become Tropical Storm Cristobal

They told us this year would be an incredibly active Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season ad it's already off to a busy start.

True, the first tropical systems of the season have not been super strong, but that's typical.

The official Atlantic hurricane season didn't begin until yesterday, but there have been two tropical storms already, Arthur and Bertha, both of which had relatively minor effects on the U.S. Southeast coast during May.

There's now another tropical system bubbling in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It's a tropical depression, which means it has a real circulation like a tropical storm, though it's too weak to be considered one.

If this thing does become a tropical storm, they'll name it Cristobal.  If wannabe Cristobal does become a tropical storm by June 5, it will be the earliest on record to have three tropical storms in the Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center says the forecast for wannabe Cristobal is uncertain, as it's trapped in a broader circulation in the Bay of Campeche.  It might even dissipate in favor of a new storm, or wannabe Cristobal could just smack into land and dissipate down ther.e

Or, it could be drawn north toward the United States Gulf Coast. If that happens, it's possible the storm could feed off very warm Gulf of Mexico waters and approach hurricane strength, or even possible become a hurricane. Which would be odd for early June. That type of thing normally waits until later in the summer.

Few, if any forecasters expect this thing to get super strong, but that doesn't really matter. Tropical storms, especially slow movers like wannabe Cristobal, can dump torrential rains and cause some pretty extreme flooding.

On the other side of Central America, on the Pacific side, a relative weak tropical storm named Amanda just caused immense flooding and landslides in El Salvador and Guatemala that killed at least 17 people.

The remnants of Amanda are one ingredient that is helping form wannabe Cristobal, by the way.

NEW ENGLAND CHILL

I guess opposites attract in northern New England.

After last week's record heat, record chill descended on Maine, especially in the north. Houlton, Maine this morning got down to 26 degrees, which is that town's all-time record low for the month of June. It was 91 degrees in Houlton on May 27.

Caribou, Maine got to 31 degrees, which was good enough to break a record for the date, but not the entire month.

Clouds sort of kept temperatures up overnight in Vermont last night. However, some gardens in the Green Mountain State were wrecked by frosts yesterday. For instance, it was 29 degrees in Gallup Mills, way up in the Northeast Kingdom, 30 degrees in Island Pond and 31 degrees in South Lincoln.

It'll keep gradually warming up through the rest of the week.






El Salvador and Guatemalaen

Flash Drought? N. New England Not There Yet, But.....

Irrigating my raised beds last evening in St. Albans, Vermont. The
weather has been gorgeous, but if this keeps up for a few
more weeks, we could find outselves in a drought. 

We are continuing along with our spell of gorgeous late spring weather.  What's not to like? Day after day of wall to wall sunshine, comfortably warm temperatures, a decent breeze to keep the black flies at bay.  It's all good, right?

Well, leave it to me, the prince of weather darkness, to cast a negative light on all this bright sunshine.  

The ground is rapidly drying out in northern New York and the northern half of New England. That includes Vermont, mostly north of Route 4.

We're certainly not there yet, but this weather pattern has the feel of the early stages of a flash drought.

We all know flash floods, right?  In torrential rainstorms, streams and rivers go from perfectly fine to dangerous, raging water in a flash. Hence the name for this type of flood.

Droughts come on much more slowly, over a period of months, seasons, even years.  But sometimes, the water situation is fine, and then you get a spell of just a few weeks in which Ma Nature turns off the water tap, atmospheric conditions cause rapid evaporation of what moisture you have and you suddenly find yourself in a drought.  It can take just a few weeks, which is well, a flash if you're timing drought development.

I want to emphasize here that the North Country is NOT currently in a flash drought.  The latest weekly Drought Monitor shows an area depicted as abnormally dry over northern New York. That's a step below a minor drought. Otherwise, all of New England is OK with the amount of water in the ground and the aquafers.

A lot of that is because we had a very soggy autumn, and adequate precipitation over the winter. As we got into April ground water amounts were at or above normal. April was wet enough over southern Vermont, but dry in the northwest.  Still, no alarm bells with that. It wasn't terrible.

Here's why I've gotten more concerned about a rapid decline into drought. May has been dry.  We've also had a lot of sunny, breezy days. Many of those came before the trees leafed out, so the sunshine and better able to reach forest floors and dry them out.

This past six days have been a remarkable run of very dry weather. I don't remember the last time we had six days in a row with relative humidities in the 15 to 30 percent range. This state of affairs should last into early next week.

This is already having some negative effects. Some forest fires broke out in Maine this week, for instance.

Near constant sunshine on these long May days are further drying things out.  If it rains at all over the next week, which is iffy, it will be light.

The weather will probably turn more humid by the middle of next week, but no big storms are coming. There might be a few hit and miss showers and thunderstorms next week. However, no soakers are in the forecast.

Right now things are great for planting and outdoor work, and your garden should be just fine if you irrigate it.  However, if this keeps up, well drillers will be busy, and some households on wells might run out of water over the summer.

That would be especially bad this year, because the coronavirus pandemic dictates that we must wash our hands, and everything else for that matter, very frequently. That's hard to do without water.

Don't get me wrong, I've been greatly enjoying this string of beautiful days.  However, I would love to hear the drum of some nice overnight downpours every once in awhile to keep the very Green Mountain State that color.











Normal rains could return in a couple weeks and we'll be fine. However, a lot of factors are combing to rapidly dry us out

Worst Storms Were In Central New York/New England; Unknown If Tornadoes

Radar image of a dangerous storm heading into southwestern Vermont
last evening. Where the blue line and arrow is drawn in, the apex
of the backward "C' shape likely had damaging straight line
winds.  The red box was a tornado warning as radar
detected some spinning in the northern part of this storm. 

The severe weather in the Northeast materialized pretty much as expected yesterday, cutting a swath through western and central New York and finally through central New England.

A tornado watch was in effect for this event, and some of the storms were definitely rotating. However, it's unknown whether any tornadoes touched down.

 I'm sure National Weather Service offices in Albany, New York and in Massachusetts and New Hampshire will look into this.

The most interesting and dangerous cluster of storms got going north of Utica, New York. It promptly triggered a tornado warning.  A house in the path of this tornado warning lost its roof in the storm, but it's unclear if it was a twister or straight line winds.

The storm continued to cause damage, and occasional tornado warnings as it moved eastward into Saratoga, Washington and Warren counties of New York, just west of the Vermont border.  There were a lot of trees down, some damaged houses and roads blocked by debris. At least 36,000 people lost power in that area, according to the Glens Falls Post Star. 

The Post Star posted a photo of what they said was a tornado in Wilton, New York, but I'm not convinced by the photo. It could also be a downburst or a hail shaft, in my opinion.

The Glens Falls Post Star displayed this photo taken by Adam Colver
of what they said is a possible tornado in Wilton, New York. (Behind
the red brick part of the building). This feature in the storm could
also be a shaft of falling hail or a microburst. 

The line of storms then moved through Bennington and Windham counties, triggering tornado warnings around Sunderland, in southwestern Vermont, and the Brattleboro/Dummerston area in the southeast.

Again, it's unclear whether there were any actual tornadoes. The rotation on radar images in this storm did not look particularly intense. But this area is pretty distant from radar sites, so the quality of the storm images wasn't great.

There were reports of trees and wires down along the path of this storm and particularly where the tornado warnings went off. But this damage could easily have been caused by straight line winds and not anything tornadic.  If it was a tornado (which I kind of doubt) it would have been a fairly weak one.

The cluster of storms moved on into southwestern New Hampshire. I think slightly flatter ground there helped the storm intensify, and damage to trees and even buildings was greater than in Vermont.

On the southern end of this cluster of storms, high winds tore the roof off an apartment building in Holyoke, Massachusetts, displacing about 140 people. Again, it could have been straight line winds. I imagine weather experts will examine the damage in Holyoke to determine what caused it.

Further north in Vermont, there were strong to severe storms from about Middlebury to Montpelier to Bradford and points south, exactly as forecasters expected. There were reports of some trees and wires down with these storms. The storms in central Vermont were not tornadic. No tornado warnings were issued for this area, and there is no evidence of any kind of spin up that I could see.

Further north, in the quote, unquote more stable air, the parent storm system created a pretty good punch.  The line of heavy downpours, with some embedded thunder, managed to produce a wind gust to 47 mph in South Burlington. That's not severe, but still was kind of impressive.

The same storm system did more good than harm around my area in St. Albans, Vermont.  I got 0.88 inches of rain, with most of it coming within an hour during gusty showers.  We needed the rain, so I'm grateful that came through.

There's no severe storms in the forecasts now, but the predictions are pretty uncertain as to what will happen with our weather over the next few days.

A storm system will set up and sort of sit and spin over the central Appalachians over the next few days.  An early season subtropical storm seems to be forming off the coast of Florida and will get absorbed by that sitting and spinning storm

Meanwhile, fair weather high pressure will want to sink into northern New England from Quebec.  This will want to clear the skies over us.  So which wins? The rain to the south or the fair weather tothe north? Hard to tell, but as it looks now, we might get a period of rain Monday, then things will start clear out for the rest of next week. No promises, though.

Also, don't worry about any new outbreaks of late season chill if the Canadian high pressure system wins. Yes, it is from Canada, but it's not a cold batch of air.  Also, this fair weather system is, or will be, sitting over southern Quebec.

That's far enough south so that the warm May sun will keep raising the temperatures within this zone of fair weather, The upshot for us is we'll get near normal,  to perhaps slightly above normal temperatures by the end of the upcoming week.

Wintry Blast Heading To New England; Southern Tornadoes

Daffodil blooming in my St. Albans, Vermont this morning.
Let's hope this little fella survives temperatures in the low to
mid 20s Wednesday night! 

As expected tornadoes and severe weather rocked the South yesterday, though thankfully this one wasn't as bad as the outbreak a week earlier.

There were several tornadoes, and reports of one particularly large, strong one in Mississippi.

It appears that tornado mostly went through rural and pretty unpopulated areas, so not too many houses got wrecked this time. And thankfully, so far, no deaths have been reported.

It looks like there will be one more threat of some severe weather in the South, midweek, and then there will be a brief break lasting several days, in which there will be relatively few reports of severe weather and tornadoes.  At least that's the way it looks at the moment.

Up here in Vermont, we don't expect anything dramatic like tornadoes, of course. But after an early spring, winter still wants to regain control.  Watch out for wind gusts, and then a hard freeze.

We have another system coming in similar to what we've seen a few times this month already: A very dynamic, energetic disturbance will come in from the west and northwest.  Like the previous systems, recipitation amounts won't be overwhelming at all. Still,  you'll notice the weather on Tuesday.

Out ahead of the storm's strong cold front, gusty south winds will blow Tuesday morning, especiall in the Champlain Valley, where winds could go over 40 mph at times.

Crocuses like these blooming in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens
look fragile, but they're pretty tough. We'll see how well they do in
a really hard freeze expected Wednesday night. 

A band of showers, and maybe some thunderstorms will accompany the cold front, which at this point  looks like it will enter western Vermont in the early afternoon and then sweep east.

The front might be energetic enough to set off a few thunderstorms, especially in southern Vermont.  NOAA's Storm Prediction  Center has much of the Northeast in a marginal risk zone for severe thunderstorms and that zone extends into the southern half of Vermont.

There might be a few isolated thunderstorms that manage to create damaging wind gusts. In Vermont, if this happens at all, the damaging gusts will be few and far between.

The real story will be the intense cold behind the cold front, at least by April standards. After snow showers dust a few areas Tuesday night, high temperatures Wednesday will stay in the 30s in many northern areas, with a stiff northwest wind. The Champlain Valley and southern Vermont could squeak into the low 40s, but that's a far cry from the mid and upper 50s that are normal for this time of year.

Unfortunately, it looks like we're going to lose some of the early blooms that are out there right now.  Temperatures Wednesday night will bottom out between 15 and 25 degrees, with the teens up in the mountains and colder hollows.

Early flowers like daffodils and crocuses are pretty tough, but early varieties that are blooming now might not fare that well in that level of cold.  The plants themselves will be fine, but the some of the blooming daffodils and other flowers could wilt and die in those temperatures.

It depends upon how hardy yours are, but the prospect of even losing a few is a bit depressing.

Temperatures will kind of, sort of warm up later in the week and into the weekend, but still remain below normal, unfortunately.

Two Destructive Storms Affecting U.S.; Some Effects Here In Vermont

Latest National Weather Service forecast snow map. Yellow and
orange areas, mostly in the Northeast Kingdom and high elevations
depict more than six inches of new snow. 

The storm that's going to sock Maine later today with a major snowstorm and us Vermonters with our share of rain and snow, has really packed a punch in other parts of the nation already.

Or at least the ingredients feeding into this storm have.

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms swept large areas of the Midwest and South yesterday.  This was  part of the energy feeding into the storm, which I will call Storm #1.  That's because a Storm #2 will create its own big havoc Sunday and Monday. More on that in a bit.

One of yesterday's tornadoes passed very close to Jonesboro, Arkansas, which was hit by a destructive tornado on March 28.  Yesterday's tornado formed southwest of Jonesboro, which is bad because more often than not, twisters head toward the northeast.

This one went east and southeast, though, damaging or destroying more than two dozen homes around Harrisburg, Arkansas, which is a little south of Jonesboro.

Other possible tornadoes were scattered yesterday across the Midwest and South.

As the storm heads east to consolidate over New England, the system's cold front will probably set off more severe thunderstorms along the East Coast from the Carolinas to southern New England, with a zone from Washington DC to New York City being the best focus for damaging straight line winds.

The storm will rapidly organize into a big nor'easter along the coast of Maine tonight. The National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine is calling this an extremely impressive storm for mid-April. More than two feet of snow could smother Mount Katahdin, and many lowland areas in interior Maine could easily close in on 18 inches of heavy, wet snow. Snowfall rates in some parts of Maine tonight will go at two to three inches per hour, which is wild.

VERMONT EFFECTS

We'll get nothing like that here in Vermont, but it will still get unpleasant in a hurry today and stay that way at least through Friday.

The storm will start with a good slug of chilly rain, possibly starting out mixed with a few wet snowflakes in the high spots.

The rain will go over to snow this evening, first in the high elevations then going down to valley floors overnight in Vermont. Far northeastern Vermont is under a winter storm warning because six to 10 inches of wet snow is likely there through Friday.

Much of north central Vermont away from Lake Champlain  has got a winter weather advisory for two to six inches of snow.  The high peaks of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks could get six to 12 inches of snow, locally more out of this.

Even in the Champlain Valley, we'll wake up to a coating of snow Friday morning.

Friday is going to be a nasty day in Vermont by April standards. Snow showers will come down in many areas much of the morning, mixing with cold raindrops in the valleys as temperatures "warm" into the upper 30s.  Strong northwest winds will make it feel even more wintry.

It's still be chilly Saturday, but brighter. Sunday looks OK before the next storm hits which I will get into in a bit.

STORM #2

Forecasters are getting increasingly worried about what will become of a storm that's been meandering around southern California for days.

It'll finally eject into the southern Plains of the United States this weekend. Ingredients seem to be coming together or a big severe weather outbreak in the Deep South by Sunday.

Details are hard to tease out at this point, but the potential is at least there for strong, long lasting tornadoes from Louisiana to Florida.  This still might or might not happen, as a few factors could limit the severe weather. But at this point, things don't look good, and  people in the Deep South ought to be thinking about where they would go in a huge jiffy if these big tornadoes do develop. It's looking like a distinct possibility.

Storm #2 will turn into a strong system as it heads into the Great Lakes Monday.  Up here in Vermont, the early indications are we'll get a relatively mild day with a good chunk of wind and rain Monday, followed by an extended period of March-like temperatures following the storm.

"Wrong Way" Ocean Storm To Give Vermont Usual April Yuck

One forecast map of the storm which is expected to be
off the New England coast late tonight. Normally, you'd
expect a storm like this to move northeastward toward
Atlantic Canada. Instead, it will move in the opposite
direction, then south, then southeast to the middle
of the Atlantic Ocean. 

On the bright side, a very strong, enormous storm in the Atlantic Ocean is far enough away from the East Coast that it won't cause a weather disaster.

On the not so bright side, yuck is the word for New England weather today and to a lesser extent tomorrow.

The cold rain, mixed with snow expected in Vermont is nothing out of the ordinary for the Green Mountain State in early April.

It does dampen spring spirits, however.  But - spoiler alert - we should be back in relatively springlike conditions starting Saturday, when temperatures will rebound into the 50s. That kind of mild-ish weather will last well into next week.

The storm has already caused some problems. When it was developing over the Southeastern United States a couple days ago, it unleashed some tornadoes that damaged or destroyed several homes in Alabama and Georgia.

Surf and gusty winds emanating from the offshore storm will cause beach erosion, and minor coastal flooding in spots from Florida to Maine.

ODD STORM

The massive ocean storm is expected to remain weird. I told you the other day how weather is coming in from the east and heading west over us, which is opposite of what normally happens.

The storm is also expected to do an odd loop. It was headed northeastward in the open Atlantic, like a normal storm would. Then it's going to turn west and then southwestward past New England.  So it will - for a time at least - essentially be a southwestward moving nor'easter.  Exactly opposite of normal.

Figure that one out. I guess we'll call this the Great Wrong Way Storm Of 2020, right?

Eventually, over the weekend, the storm will move south, than southeastward well out into the Atlantic and over warm ocean waters that are even warmer than normal for this time of year.  There's talk that the storm could become subtropical, which is really weird for April.

A subtropical storm is one that develops a warm core, like a tropical storm, but still retains some characteristics of a regular storm.

In any event, any kind of tropical or subtropical storm out in the Atlantic is definitely unusual.

Atlantic hurricane season goes from June 1 to November 30, but tropical storms have been seen out there every month of the year, at least occasionally. But April is the least likely month for such a thing.

There was Tropical Storm Arlene with top winds of 50 mph back on April 19-21, 2017 way out in the Central Atlantic Ocean. and Tropical Storm Ana on April 20-24, 2003.  There was also a subtropical storm way out in the Atlantic in 1992, but that's about it for this time of year in data going back to the 1920s.

There is speculation that with climate change ongoing, ocean temperatures will continue to rise, making these off-season tropical systems more likely.

WHAT'S IN IT FOR VERMONT?

Way before the storm has even a chance of becoming a subtropical storm, it will be just the usual Atlantic storm heading in that backward direction I spoke of.  As it makes its most northern approach then turns southwestward, a band of moisture is crossing New England, again backward, from east to west today and tonight while weakening.

Coastal New England will get gusty winds and more than an inch of rain out of this. Here in Vermont, many places are starting as snow this morning, but valley locations should switch over to rain or  mostly rain as the day wears on.

More snow will mix in tonight. Some valleys in Vermont will get a coating of snow this morning and again tonight. The mountains might pick up a few inches of snow. The total amount of rain and melted snow in Vermont will be mostly a quarter to a half inch. A decent wetdown, but nothing extreme.

As the storm starts to sink southward, Friday's weather will gradually start to improve, starting north and heading south.  Northern Vermont will actually be warmer than the south Friday as clouds closer to the Canadian border begin to thin out

Winds will gust to 30 mph today, tonight and Friday, adding some chill to the air.

Saturday looks nice. The storm will be out of our hair, at least in Vermont. Winds will be lighter, there will be at least some sun and temperatures will pop up into the low 50s, which is a bit milder than normal for this time of year.

"Backward" Weather Coming To Vermont/New England

A computer model map for Wednsday. Strong high pressure
over far northern Canada causing a strong east to west flow (the rather
tightly packed lines in Canada. A strong storm well off the coast
is contributing to the east to west flow. That green stripe
from New England into central Quebec is a band of
moisture, essentially a weather front, moving westward
from the Atlantic 

Almost all of time, our weather comes from a general west to east directions.  Cold fronts attack us New Englanders from the northwest, while surges of milder air come in from the southwest.

Or, little weather systems zip across overhead, racing due west to east. That's just the way it's done in the Northern Hemisphere.

Sometimes, especially in the spring, things get weird.  The weather starts coming from the east.  And when it does, more often than not we get a cooling trend, a reverse from the normal spring trend of gradual milder weather.

For both those reasons, we get into something called a backward spring.

We have an episode of that coming in the next few days. Fortunately, there are no worries about any extreme weather, which is also pretty common in backwards spring episodes.

In the early spring, weather systems often get blocked up in the North Atlantic. Things slow down or stall, or move in odd directions. In this case a strong high pressure system over far northern Canada and near Greenland s helping to gum up the works and get the air flow in southeastern Canada and the Northeast coming from the east, rather than the west.

Next, a storm is crossing the southeastern United States today, and will probably cause some strong thunderstorms and maybe a couple tornadoes down there. This storm will move off the Carolina coast and turn into essentially a huge nor'easter off the coast.

This big ocean storm won't come nearly close enough to cause any big weather in New England.  But it  will accentuate the odd east to west air flow over the Atlantic Ocean.  It means that what amounts to a cold front is moving from a position south of Greenland and move from coastal New England to New York Thursday.

This "front" for the lack of a better word, will be weakening as it crosses through.  It all means we're in for a spell of chilly light, but frequent rain showers, mixed with some snow. The snow would be especially prevalent at night and in the mountains, but it won't come down heavily.

We are in a cooling trend, too.  It'll only be in the 40s today despite sunshine, which is about average for this time of year. We'll only make it to the low 40s tomorrow, and some places won't get past 40 n Thursday.

That's not particularly cold for this time of year, but it is an interruption to our early spring.

That big ocean storm will begin to grudgingly move east or southeast at the end of the week, and the weather patterns will revert to its normal west to east flow. That will bring warmer temperatures ot us by the weekend. Forecasts calls for temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s during the weekend, which is a bit on the mild side for this time of year.

Nice Early Spring Thundery Light Show In New England Last Night

Those of you New Englanders who like warm season thunderstorms got a treat last evening, even if it wasn't particularly warm.

As I'm sure many of you saw and heard, a number of thunderstorms rolled through New York and New England on Sunday, thanks to a strong storm system.

It's the same system that brought tornadoes to the Midwest on Saturday. Luckily for us, no tornadoes.  

There were actually severe thunderstorm warnings in parts of southern New England and northwestern New York during this episode.

A few of those warnings verified in terms of hail size.  Golf ball sized hail came down in Worcester, Massachusetts and there were several reports of quarter sized hail in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Here in Vermont, several areas reported smaller hail in the storms, mostly pea sized or just marginally bigger. But still, that's impressive for a March thunderstorm.

True to form for New England, not every part of the region had thunderstorms.  Western and northern Maine was enduring a winter storm of wet snow and sleet.

Screen grab of lots of lightning activity in
New England Sunday evening. Image from
lightningmaps.org

The thunderstorms erupted because the strong storm system that was over the Great Lakes Sunday  created strong instability.  That means temperatures dropped quickly as you went up in elevation, so that allowed air currents to rise into towering clouds that produced thunderstorms.

Additionally, the storm was causing a general lift in the atmosphere anyway, so with all that upward motion in the air, thunderstorms were able to blossom.  One key ingredient for thunderstorms is strongly rising air, so there you go.

These were known as elevated storms. There was a thin layer of cool air near the Earth's surface. That's why it was only in the 30s and 40s when the storm rolled through.

But there was a warmer layer above. That warm layer was essentially the base of the storms. Then the air cooled dramatically from that warm layer on upward.  That was the instability that helped trigger the thunderstorms.

These storms contrasted with the kinds of thunderstorms we usually get in the summertime, which are commony surface-based, not elevated. Surface based means that the sun has warmed the lowest levels of the atmosphere, where we live. From there rising air currents create thunderstorms without any low level layer of chillier air.

That parent storm system that caused the thunderstorms is still pestering New England today. Here in Vermont, I doubt there will be any thunderstorms, but it will be showery and cool, although this morning will be on the dry side.  There migtht be some snow or mixed precipitation way up in the mountains.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has southern New England in a marginal risk zone for severe storms, though. The threat would be isolated reports of large hail again.

It's been an interesting winter and early spring for New England and New York thunderstorms. Just before New Year, there was a bizarre storm that created both freezing rain and thunderstorms with large hail in central and southern New England, as far north as southern Vermont.

On March 20, strong storms caused straight line wind damage in northern New York and far northwestern Vermont, which is awfully early in the season for that to be happening.

We Always Seem To Get At Least One Winter Storm In The Spring. Update Here

The latest, dreaded National Weather Service snow prediction map
for this storm.  Southern areas look to be under the gun but
northern areas will just get a glancing blow Click on the map
to make it bigger and easier to see. 

We're a few days into spring now, but par for the course, a good chunk of New England is in for a winter storm later today and tonight.

How hard you're hit will depend on where you are.

This storm will focus most forcefully on New York's Catskill Mountains, far southern Vermont, southern and central New Hampshire, southwestern Maine and western and central Massachusetts.  All these places are under winter storm warnings for an expected five to 10 inches of heavy, wet snow.

South of those places and in lower elevations away from the Catskills, a lot of rain will mix in, so it won't be that big a deal. North of the winter storm warning areas, the snow won't be as heavy.

After the crystal clear skies we had on Sunday, it has already clouded up in Vermont and most of the rest of New England as of 7 a.m. this morning. Those clouds will yield snow starting this afternoon and continuing on into tonight. In some of the warm valleys, including the Champlain Valley, precipitation might start as rain, but will quickly change to snow.

I know a lot of you are working from home, but those who aren't can expect some iffy road conditions at best this evening. That'll be especially true in southern Vermont and other areas that are under the winter storm warning.

Overnight, the areas under the warning could receive enough heavy, wet snow to break branches an power lines, so keep that in mind. (Spring snowstorms in New England usually feature heavy, wet snow, so there you go).

As it stands now, total accumulation looks to be in the six inch range, give or take, in the southern third of Vermont. Areas between Route 4 and Route 2 should see two to four inches, with lesser amounts possible in the Champlain Valley.

North of Route 2, it looks like this will amount to two inches or less, except in the Northeast Kingdom where totals might be closer to three inches.

If the storm is a tiny bit colder than forecast, snow totals would go up a little.

Late tonight, the snow will taper to scattered areas of freezing drizzle, says the National Weather Service.  Roads will probably be a little slick in many areas Tuesday morning.

This storm is a quick mover, and will be out of our hair by Tuesday. There might even be a little sun in the afternoon to start melting that newly fallen snow.

As mentioned yesterday, the rest of the week looks unsettled, with frequent chances of light rain or a little snow, but for now, none of these storms seem like they will be blockbusters.

New Year's Eve Road Alert, And New England's Weirdest Winter Storm

National Weather Service map from Monday afternoon shows a bizarre
combinayion of a ice storm warnings (in purple) and a severe thunderstorm
warning (in orange).  Usually these two warnings are in different
seasons, not together on the same day/

Hi, I'm back after a one day hiatus in which I was traveling from the blizzardy snows of South Dakota toward the very weird storminess over New England on Monday.

And what a strange storm it was!  I don't see anything the record books in which a nasty winter storm of snow, freezing rain, sleet and wind combined simultaneously with severe thunderstorms with damaging hail.

That was the situation in New England yesterday, folks!  There's a couple videos at the bottom of this post.

I'll get into more of that in a minute, but first, we're not even quite done with the storm yet.

This thing was a sprawling mess which kept sprouting new centers and new bouts of rough weather from California to Maine.

The last of these storms is near Downeast Maine, and is dumping heavy snow on the northern and western parts of that state.

It's a remnant piece of a previous part of this storm that we Vermonters have to worry about today and tonight.  In case you haven't noticed, it's pretty mild out there this New Year's Eve.

In many, but not all Vermont valley locations, yesterday's ice is melting off the trees. That's a good thing, as you don't want to have the branches weighed down by the ice and risk more tree and power line damage.

One reason it's mild out is there is a cold front of sorts attached to that remnant piece of the storm near the eastern Great Lakes.

This sort of cold front has a lot of energy with it.  There was even more lightning to report this morning in Ohio.  This front will generate some heavy snow showers as it approaches tonight.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says the timing suggests that the heavier snow showers will come through northern New York between 4 and 8 p.m. today. They'll get into the Champlain Valley between about 7 and 10 p.m. and into the eastern half of Vermont between 9 p.m. and midnight.

This obviously means trouble for people out partying for New Year's Eve. A quick one to three inches of snow, combined with some wind, will sharply reduce the visibility on the roads, and get them slippery fast.

Probably more important is the temperature. When temperatures are near the freezing mark in this snow squally situation, it's a lot worse on the roads than if readings were far below 32 degrees. In very cold weather, a lot of the snow just blows off the roads. It does compact into some ice, but it's not too, too bad when it's super cold.

However, when the temperature is warmish, like today and this evening, water on the road freezes as the temperatures fall during the onset of the snow.  The snow will be relatively wet. Wet snow compacts into thick layers of slippery ice beneath car tires. There will still be a little water on top of all this mess, which makes things even more slick.

Arrived home from a trip to find the trees in my St. Albans, Vermont\
yard were mercifully not too weighed down by ice from Monday's storm.

Combine this with drunk drivers on New Year's Eve and you have a real mess on your hand. I get it that I'm being a New Year's Eve Debbie Downer with this news. But it's all in an effort to help you plan ahead.  

Or stay home. That's what me and my husband Jeff do every New Year's Eve.  Tonight is amateur hour. It's more fun to sip Champagne at home.

In any event, this snow tonight is good news for the ski areas. It'll be kinda powdery up there. Groomers can mix this in with the slop from yesterday, leaving the slopes in pretty good shape for welcoming 2020 with some skiing and riding

MONDAY'S WEIRDNESS

Monday wasn't the first time there's been lightning and thunder during a New England ice storm.  But these were definitely the strongest storms I and anyone else has seen with an ice storm.   For those of you in northern and central Vermont who wonder what I'm talking about, the thundersleet storms passed well south of you.

A New England ice storm is often a recipe for some thunder.  Usually, an ice storm features a very strong punch of very warm air from the south coming into New England several thousand feet overhead.

Meanwhile, low level cold air drains in from Quebec. Rain from the overhead warm air freezes on the way down to form sleet, or freezes on contact with the ground to accumulate some dangerous ice. This is exactly the situation New England faced on Monday.

This warm air above can be quite unstable and create elevated thunderstorms that form above the temperature inversion that is keeping the cold air locked in at the surface. For instance, there were thunderstorms in Vermont during the Great Ice Storm of 1998.

On Monday, the storms turned out to be quite strong, and formed into a system we normally and often see during severe thunderstorm outbreaks in the summer.

One thunderstorm formed ahead of the main line of storms and went through western and central Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut.  This storm very much resembled a supercell thunderstorms, the kind that can produce large hail and even tornadoes.

Supercells usually form ahead of the main band of storms that form along a squall line or ahead of a cold front. That's how Monday's initial storm behaved. It probably was technically a supercell, since it was rotating and had a radar presentation that resembled a supercell.

Because the storm was elevated above the cold layer near the surface, it would have never been able to spin down a tornado toward the ground. (The rotation with this storm was insufficient to produce a tornado even if that low level cold air wasn't around.)

However, supercells and that type of storm that formed Monday in central New England can produce large hail and this one certainly did. Rising and falling air currents in the storm grabbed raindrops and sleet pellets and formed large hail stones.

Some of the hail stones were an inch or more in diameter, as big or bigger than quarters and enough to dent vehicles. Certainly, these were the biggest hailstones on record for December in New England.

The main line of thunderstorms came through later, dumping more hail, and triggering more lightning and thunder across much of southern and central New England. Some of storms extended into southern Vermont.

On top of all this, the freezing rain was bringing down trees and power lines in the Adirondacks, southern Vermont and New Hampshire and much of Massachusetts.

Most, but not all of the power is back on in New England and New York as of early this afternoon.

Videos:

Security cameras caught the noisy thundersleet and large hail in Westfield, Massachusettts. And also the reaction from a stunned occupant of the building:



The freezing rain affected Ontario, Canada, too, as this enthusiastic motorist tells and shows us:

Dangerous Ice Storm Likely In Parts Of New England, New York

Areas in red are expected to be most likely to get enough freezing
rain to damage trees and power lines Monday. 

The forecast for New England and New York is coming into better focus, and it looks like parts of that region are in for a dangerous ice storm.

Areas surrounding the worst of the expected ice won't have a picnic with this, either.

The big storm in the northern Plains is still unleashing lots snow, ice and rain as of Sunday morning.  The snow and rain since yesterday has made 2019 the wettest year on record in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. The old record was set just last year.  

Total snowfall amid near blizzard conditions in parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota should go over a foot in many places

This storm is dumping, or will dump, a lot of rain and create a severe weather risk today in the South a the system draws lots of moisture fron the Gulf of Mexico.

If all this makes you think the storm has a lot of moisture to work with, you're right.  And that's one key ingredient toward making life miserable in New England and New York on Monday.

That huge influx of moisture will ride up and over a warm front coming at us from the southwest. The problem is, the warm front won't make it through the northern half of New York and New England because of a stubborn chilly high pressure system in Quebec.

The warm air from the south will ride up and over the cold air near the surface that will be draining down from Quebec, setting the region up for the icy mess.

The weather setup has a few simularities to the Great Ice Storm of 1998, but luckily, this one won't be as intense and it won't last nearly as long.  So we won't have a disaster like that.

Areas in yellow are likely to get at least six inches of snow
and sleet accumulation.  Blue areas will get two to four
inches of sleet, snow and some freezing rain 

Still, at this point, it looks like a zone from the Adirondacks, southward into New York's Hudson Valley, southern Vermont, southwestern New Hampshire, western and central Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut are under the gun for a potentially damaging ice storm.

Ice on trees and power lines really starts to cause damage when ice is a quarter inch thick or more. Some spots in the zone I've outlined could easily get more than half an inch of ice from freezing rain.

As you go north and east, more into Vermont and New Hampshire, the amount of freezing rain would decrease if the forecast comes true, but they would get more sleet and snow.

Northern areas, as it stands now, should start as snow, with sleet and a little freezing rain mixing in during the day Monday. Current forecasts indicate four to six inches of sleet and snow - but not much freezing rain - roughly along and north and east of Interstate 89.

The more you head south and west of Interstate 89, the more likely you are to encounter freezing rain on Monday, though these southern areas will get some snow and sleet, too.

Another problem will be wind. Gusts will reach 30 mph, and closer to 40 or 45 mph in some of the western slopes of the Green and Adirondack mountains. Where these strong winds occur along with the freezing rain, the damage to trees and power lines would be magnified.

In the areas where the ice will accumulate the most, be ready for power outages that could last for a couple days. Even longer in more rural areas.

Those of us who will get sleet and snow can expect very difficult travel conditions all day Monday.

Some of this will last into Tuesday as mostly light snow, areas of freezing drizzle and perhaps a bit of plain non-freezing drizzle in the warm pockets continues.

The big caveat is this:  Computer models are in good agreement with how this storm will turn out.  But if the forecasts are off by only a degree or two either way anywhere in the Northeast, the outcome where you sit could turn out very different.

It's always possible that the worst of the freezing rain will set up north, east, south or west of where current forecasts put it. So keep paying attention for forecast updates.

The year 2019 was pretty stormy in the Northeast. The year is ending true to form.

Storm Update: Huge Plains Mess Today; New England Mess Monday

Ice covers trees in my St. Albans yard in 2017. Scenes like this
will be common in parts of the upper Midwest, Ontario and New York
and New England between now and Monday.

That ongoing, slow moving winter storm out in the middle of the nation is, as expected, creating a mess in the middle of hte nation and will continue to do so through the weekend.

This storm is a slow mover, especially compared to the usual fast pace of weather systems this time of year.

This makes the winter weather with this storm even more long-lasting, annoying and disruptive than usual. The storm will also be remembered as one that will have spread ice through large sections of the Plains and elsewhere.  

Then, the action will skip to New England by Sunday night and Monday, and there will be a huge mess there, too. More on that down below, but first we'll get into what's going on in the Plains.

A wide stripe from western Nebraska, central South Dakota, eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota is still getting or going to get socked by eight to 20 inches of snow.  Just east of that, in eastern Nebraska, northwestern Iowa southeastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota, they're in for rain, freezing rain, sleet, then snow, blowing snow and gusty winds, so it will be a real mess where I am in Yankton, South Dakota.

In parts of southwestern Minnesota, an ice storm warning is in effect.  Freezing rain could accumulated to as thick as a half inch, which is more than enough to bring down trees and power lines.

A little to the south in Iowa, a few areas could see enough rain to cause some localized flooding

All this precipitation in South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa is unwelcome for another reason. This year will roughly tie last year as the wettest year on record in this region.  Despite what has been until now a relatively dry December, the ground is still totally soaked from two years of unprecedented rain and other precipitation.

The snow and ice will have to eventually melt, which will just provide more excess water. The James River in South Dakota, unbelievably, has been constantly in flood stage since March.

Further south, broadly in the area where Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas and Oklahoma meet, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms and perhaps a tornado or two later today and tonight.

ON TO NEW ENGLAND

This is just one forecast among many varying ones regarding the
potential for ice Monday. This map depicts ice accumulation
of more than a half inch in darker pink areas. That's enough to
cause damage. I would emphasize this is just one computer run
on one model and results will likely be very different, and likely
not as bad as this forecast indicates. Still something to
with out for, though. 

As the strong storm center moves into the Great Lakes, its warm front will want to come in from the southwest, bringing plenty of moisture for steady precipitation with it.

Meanwhile, cold high pressure way up in Quebec will be stubborn as hell, and not let the warm air advance.

The warm air will try to go up an over the cold air, which sets much of New England and New York up for mixed precipitation. A large section of Ontario is under the gun for freezing rain and sleet, too.

The battle between the cold and warm looks like it will reach a stalemate right over or near northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and maybe Massachusetts, so tha'ts the zone we have to really watch for ice and sleet.

Early indications are the freezing rain would be the biggest problem from the northern Adirondacks, southeastward into far southern Vermont, and into central New England, say in a broad area around Worcester.

There's a risk -not a certainty! -  these areas could see a damaging ice storm. The prolonged nature of the freezing rain from perhaps Sunday night through Monday, could bring enough freezing rain accumulations to bring down trees and power lines.

Remember, this freezing rain zone could end up being a little north and east, or a little south and west of current forecasts, so everybody in and around Vermont will want to watch this one.

People just to the northeast of the most intense freezing rain zone could end up getting a lot of sleet. I suppose that's better, because sleet doesn't accumulate on power lines and trees, it just bounces off. But if you get a bunch of sleet, it's heavier than hell to shovel away.  Far northern New England, maybe northern New Hampshire and a good chunk of Maine stand to get at least several inches of snow.

A secondary storm will likely form south of New England and move northeastward.  That would eventually help colder air leach in through all layers of the atmosphere, which would change much of the rain to snow.

Meanwhile, the parent low over the Great Lakes will slowly weaken and drift toward New England. All this means that the ski areas of Vermont and surrounding states will get a long period of snow. This would go probably from Monday night well into Wednesday.

It won't snow super hard, butthe long duration means the ski slopes would get many inches of recovery snow.  Temperatures won't be very cold, so the light snow would mix with rain in some of the valleys. Plus precipitation will be even lighter in the valleys than in the mountains.

This whole New England forecast, especially for the ice Sunday night and Monday will almost definitely change. This whole essay just gives you an idea of what we might expect. Stay tuned for inevitable adjustments to the forecast.

Bottom line: Expect lousy travel throughout the region Monday, with a risk of spotty power outages and tree damage.

Stormy Winter (Continued) San Francisco Suffers Flood (Also Vermont Wind Update)

Flooding in San Francisco Saturday. Photo by Robert Evans

Winters tend to be stormy in the United States, and San Francisco tends to be wet but San Francisco really got it yesterday.

The rain came so fast and so hard that several neighborhoods flooded. Several houses suffered quite a bit of flood damage in the city's West Portal neighborhood.  There were several mudslides, and the wet soil prompted at least one  large tree to all on a house.

San Francisco got about an inch of rain, which isn't really that big a deal for coastal California in the winter.

However, about three quarters of an inch of it came within an hour, and all that water poured all at once down the city's hilly streets, collecting in the low spots, causing the flooding.  It usually doesn't rain quite that hard in San Francisco.

All good storms head east, and that's what this one is doing.  For the nation as a whole, this one won't be nearly as bad as the strongest ones we've had in the autumn and early winter. But the storm will cause its problems.

It is helping to drop yet more snow on the northern Plains and northern Great Lakes, which are parts of the country that have had a lot of snow so far this year.

The storm center is still far to Vermont's west, but it's working in tandem with that departing high pressure system to produce the rather strong and gusty winds today, especially in the Champlain Valley. It looks like it will stay windy well into Monday at least.

The storm's going by to our west, which means it's going to rain.  That'll be a change from this morning, which was the coldest so far this season. It was 5 above in Burlington, and as cold as 12 below in Island Pond, Vermont this morning.

The see-saw will continue. After the storm goes by, another cold snap, as chilly as the one we had overnight, is due here Wednesday, Thursday and into Friday morning before we start another warmup.

As the storm's cold front comes through New England, it might slow down for a time near the southern coast and into the Middle Atlantic states Wednesday morning. That might produce a few inches of snow in these areas.

Here in Vermont, there will only be light snow showers behind the storm, with little accumulation.

This storm will also cause strong winds, heavy rain and possible flooding in Atlantic Canada, too, by the way.

Here's a news clip of the San Francisco flooding:

New England Storm: Forecast Steady As She Goes

Areas in yellow can expect six inches or more of snow out this storm. Most
of the orange areas can expect a foot or more, at least according to
this National Weather Service forecast. Note the light blue
in far northern Vermont. That represents an inch or less of snow.

We continue on with our winter routine of watching and waiting on the next New England snow and ice storm and speculating as to whether forecasts will turn out to be accurate.

One thing that gives me confidence in the predictions for this latest storm is how consistent they are.  They are virtually unchanged from yesterday morning. This, of course, does not mean we won't be surprised.  

This will primarily be a central New England and central New York affair, with many of those spots still under the gun for a good foot of snow, with maybe some freezing rain thrown in for good measure.

The winter storm warnings for this storm go from northeastern Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey, up through most of southern and central New York, and on into southern Vermont and New Hampshire, and northern Massachusetts.

As of this morning, a dangerous ice storm was going on in southern Ontario, western New York and parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey.  Roads are a mess, there's already many reports of crashes, and people are worried about trees and power lines coming down.

That first wave of precipitation, in western New York, will slowly

Here in Vermont, it still looks like a tale of two climates, at least for a couple days. The southern end of the state is still in line for a good foot of snow. Up at the Canadian border, there will practically be nothing. We think.

In between, Rutland and Windsor counties have been upgraded to a winter storm warning, since a lot of that area has a good shot of seeing six inches or more of snow between now and Tuesday morning.

That ice out west probably won't make it to Vermont, aside from some freezing drizzle or light freezing rain possible overnight tonight in far southern parts of the state.

This storm will last a long time and winds will come from the east or northeast through most of it

That means the east slopes and summits of the Green Mountains from central Vermont south will be the big winners.  As mentioned yesterday, winds will be forced to rise up those slopes. Rising air cools. Cooler air can't hold as much moisture, so that wetness will come out of the sky as lots and lots and lots of snowflakes.

I could see a foot of snow falling as far north as Killington, and eight inches as far north as Sugarbush. No guarantees on this, but it's set up like that.

The first surge of snow will come at us during the day today, but it will gradually fade on its way into and through Vermont. By the time it reaches the Canadian border this evening,  expect basically flurries up there.

A stronger surge of snow will come down Monday as the storm consolidates along the New England coast. This is another tricky part, as the heaviest snow for these types of storms usually sets up north and west of the center.

But how far north and west of the storm's center?  The snow might concentrate a little further south and east in Massachusetts, or it could set up more in southern Vermont and eastern New York.  Or somewhere in between.

As the storm moves toward the northeast, this band of snow will be a moving target, so everybody in the winter storm warning area will get a decent blast of snow. It's just hard to tell who the big "winners" will be.

As the storm moves north, off the coast of Maine, I'm also wondering if that band of snow will move northward with it, coming into areas north of Route 2 in Vermont, especially east of the Champlain Valley. That's speculation at this point,  and a low chance of that happening, but something to watch.

There could still be some northern Vermont surprises, though the current forecasts of next to no snow on the Canadian border still looks good, and will probably be the outcome.

There's no big storms coming this week after this one goes by, but frequent disturbances will create chances for snow showers off and on through next weekend.

Wintry Rest Of The Weekend For Vermont, Much Of Rest Of Nation

This is just one model of the potential storm on Sunday and Monday.
This run of the European model dumps a foot and a half of snow
on the Albany, New York Capital District and interior southern
New England. CAUTION: This is just one run and one model. I pretty much
guarantee the storm won't play out like this, but it gives an idea of
where the early thinking of where the storm might focus. Note
that it could go further north or south than this, or be stronger
or weaker than this.  Time will tell.

The well-heralded second, stronger storm of the Thanksgiving week is gathering strength this morning over the western half of the nation as part of a coast-to-coast ride that is providin and will continue to provide lots of ugly weather for most of the nation.

 It's a wide ranging, large storm, so almost everybody gets in on the action. 

After coming ashore in Oregon the other day as a powerful, deep windstorm, this one settled into the Southwest on Thanksgiving, dropping lots of rain, firing up strong thunderstorms and flash floods in southern California and Arizona.

There was even a tornado warning early this morning for parts of the Phoenix metro area.

This storm is also dumping boatloads of snow in higher elevations. Some snow even came down in not-so-high elevations.

Interstate 5 - The so called Grapevine in the mountains east of Los Angeles, shut down yesterday due to heavy snow and many stuck cars.

The storm is gathering itself, and will cause major trouble today and tomorrow through a huge area of the western and central United States.

Winter storm and blizzard warnings extend from Arizona, through the central Rockies and into a big, big portion of the northern Plains.

To its south, severe weather and possible tornadoes could break out in and around Louisiana Saturday.

This type of storm track usually has the action going by to our west and we Vermonters get a squirt of warm air ahead of the storm before the inevitable cold front with the storm comes through.

Not this time. The storm will take an unusual path. Instead of continuing on toward the Great Lakes, it seems the storm will take an abrupt right turn once it gets to about Nebraska. Then it will head east or even a little south of east  toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, where a new storm will develop, and turn into a pretty typical nor'easter.

There will be a nasty stripe of snow and ice north of the storm's path. It's not a fast mover, either, so there could be time to drop a lot of precipitation where it concentrates itself. 

It's unclear how far north the snow will get given the storm's kind of strange path Southern and central New England have the potential at least to get quite a dump.

Here in Vermont, the south could get a lot and the north would largely miss out.  Computer trends with this storm have trended a bit south, so if that prediction sticks, northern Vermont would only get a little snow Sunday night and Monday.

But, that's no guarantee.  If the storm jogs just a little north, the whole state could get a good dump of snow out of this. No promises yet either way.

OTHER ISSUES

Before we get to that, note that there's areas of freezing drizzle in Vermont this morning. If you've headed out to the silly Black Friday store buster deals, don't hurry too much. Roads are slick in spots.

Plus, whether or not we get snow in Vermont later Sunday into Monday, it's going to be wintry cold again. After a brief break in the days leading up to Thanksgiving, we're stuck back in the early start to winter.   It's going to be a long one, folks.