We Always Seem To Get At Least One Winter Storm In The Spring. Update Here

The latest, dreaded National Weather Service snow prediction map
for this storm.  Southern areas look to be under the gun but
northern areas will just get a glancing blow Click on the map
to make it bigger and easier to see. 

We're a few days into spring now, but par for the course, a good chunk of New England is in for a winter storm later today and tonight.

How hard you're hit will depend on where you are.

This storm will focus most forcefully on New York's Catskill Mountains, far southern Vermont, southern and central New Hampshire, southwestern Maine and western and central Massachusetts.  All these places are under winter storm warnings for an expected five to 10 inches of heavy, wet snow.

South of those places and in lower elevations away from the Catskills, a lot of rain will mix in, so it won't be that big a deal. North of the winter storm warning areas, the snow won't be as heavy.

After the crystal clear skies we had on Sunday, it has already clouded up in Vermont and most of the rest of New England as of 7 a.m. this morning. Those clouds will yield snow starting this afternoon and continuing on into tonight. In some of the warm valleys, including the Champlain Valley, precipitation might start as rain, but will quickly change to snow.

I know a lot of you are working from home, but those who aren't can expect some iffy road conditions at best this evening. That'll be especially true in southern Vermont and other areas that are under the winter storm warning.

Overnight, the areas under the warning could receive enough heavy, wet snow to break branches an power lines, so keep that in mind. (Spring snowstorms in New England usually feature heavy, wet snow, so there you go).

As it stands now, total accumulation looks to be in the six inch range, give or take, in the southern third of Vermont. Areas between Route 4 and Route 2 should see two to four inches, with lesser amounts possible in the Champlain Valley.

North of Route 2, it looks like this will amount to two inches or less, except in the Northeast Kingdom where totals might be closer to three inches.

If the storm is a tiny bit colder than forecast, snow totals would go up a little.

Late tonight, the snow will taper to scattered areas of freezing drizzle, says the National Weather Service.  Roads will probably be a little slick in many areas Tuesday morning.

This storm is a quick mover, and will be out of our hair by Tuesday. There might even be a little sun in the afternoon to start melting that newly fallen snow.

As mentioned yesterday, the rest of the week looks unsettled, with frequent chances of light rain or a little snow, but for now, none of these storms seem like they will be blockbusters.

Enjoyed Vermont Taste Of Spring? Good! Back To Winter!

The National Weather Service snow map is back! Click on it to
make it bigger and easier to see. As you can see, the current
forecast has highter snow totals, more than six inches, in the
higher elevations, with less in the valleys, where a mix
with rain is more likely 

Well, that was a nice couple of spring days in Vermont, wasn't it?

Certainly more than warm enough to play in the snow.

If you don't like the snow, you got rid of some of it, especially in the valleys.  Plus, I believe sugarmakers got some early runs in for this year's maple syrup harvest.

This taste of spring is just about over now, and it's back to winter.  We're only in late February, so that's to be expected.  

Given the kind of winter we've had, you'd think we're overdue for another one of many mixed precipitation winter storms. You would be right, and such a storm is on its way.

This time, it doesn't look like there will be a big amount of sleet and freezing rain. But it will rain and it will snow.  Where what falls and when is the challenge.

Pretty much all the storms we've had this winter were a nightmare to forecast, given the temperatures in each one were near 32 degrees. Plus each storm brought complex temperatures to different layers of the atmosphere. If you were off slightly in temperatures, even a degree or so, the forecast would be a bust.

The upcoming storm, in anything, is going to be the most difficult of all to forecast. True, sleet and freezing rain are mostly, but completely out of the picture. But when the heaviest precipitation hits, will it be rain or snow?  Again, being off by a degree in temperature will throw the whole forecast off.

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington sees it, this will be an elevation dependent storm.  This type of scenario becomes more likely as we head into late February or March.  Overall temperatures have begun to warm up toward spring, so valleys tend to be more likely to support a cold rain.

But not always.

Anyway, it looks like there's going to be sharp differences between what goes on in the valleys and up the road 800 or so feet higher.

Here's how the NWS in South Burlington thinks things will play out.

The rest of today will be much cloudier and somewhat cooler than it's been for the past couple of days, but still on the mild side for this time of year. There will be a few spits of wet snowflakes and rain drops around, but it won't amount to anything, really.

There will probably be areas of light sleet and snow around tonight, causing a few slick spots as temperatures fall to near or below freezing.

On Wednesday, things will pick up a bit with somewhat steadier light snow, with a little rain in the valleys. It won't rain and snow all day, but it will be dank and wet and somewhat slushy.

Wednesday night and Thursday morning will bring the main show.  And the part of the forecast that is by far the trickiest

As heavier precipitation arrives, that will tend to cool the atmosphere, which favors snow. But slightly warmer air will trying to come in from the south and east, favoring rain, at least in the valleys.

National Weather Service meteorologist believe it will be cold enough for wet snow, even in the valleys. But it will be so slushy, and possibly mixed with rain, that the warmer low elevations will only get a couple inches of soggy snow.

Go up a few hundred feet in elevation and it would be a completely different scenario, forecasters believed as of this Tuesday morning. If you're up at an elevation of 800 or 1,000 feet, you could easily see four to eight inches of wet snow.  The mountain summits could see a foot or more.

Then there will be the local effects. On the immediate lee of the Green Mountains, on the eastern side, strong maybe even damaging downslope winds seem like they want to get cranking later Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Those winds could cause local power line problems and bring down a few trees. The downslope winds also tend to dry the atmosphere right up against the west side of the mountains, so precipitation could, maybe, be much lighter there.

Since this will be wet, heavy snow, there's definitely the risk of power failures.  If you live in areas out of the valleys, be prepared for that. The heaviest snow will come down on the eastern and southeastern slopes of the mountains.

Things will taper off Thursday afternoon.  Then, Thursday night and into the weekend, it will turn much colder.  Persistent snow showers will continue, especially in the northern and central Green Mountains, where several more inches of snow could pile up betweeen Thursday afternoon and Saturday.

This bodes well for the ski areas.  There, the warm, but rather dry weather over the past couple of days didn't cause much damage to the snowpack.  Plus, by the time the weekend hits, it looks like there will be a decent addition to the snow on the slopes.

By the way, I said it will turn much colder, but it's late enough in the winter in which cold snaps often don't have the bite they did in January.

This means highs on Friday and Saturday will be within a few degrees of 20, and lows will be in the single numbers. Cold, yes, but not unbearable.

It'll start to warm up again somewhat toward Sunday and Monday.

Bottom line, get ready for another messy storm that will probably make your commutes to and from work annoying  on Thursday and maybe cut your power.  And, unless you live in a warmer valley, you face a backbreaking chore of clearing heavy, wet snow after the storm is over.

Also, definitely be ready for surprises.  The valleys that are now forecast to get an inch or two of slush could end up getting much more, if the temperature is a degree or two colder than now forecast.  Or, the rain could creep a little further up the hillsides if it's just a degree or two on the warm side.

I'm sure there will be a few refinements and changes to the forecast before we get to Wednesday evening. We'll monitor!

Big Storm Winding Down Tonight In Vermont

It seemed like my house and truck in St. Albans, Vermont were gradually
 disappearing beneath deepening snow today despite my futile
efforts to keep shoveling. 

Given that the big storm we had today in Vermont was a nightmare to forecast, I'm impressed by how close the National Weather Service and other area meteorologists were able to predict accurately, well in advance, what would happen with this thing.

As forecast, the snow moved in from northwest to southeast starting early this morning and continuing through the day.

The band of heaviest snow came through in the late morning to mid afternoon, which several reports of one to three inch per hour snowfall rates.

As of 4 p.m. today, I measured 11 inches of new snow at my place in St. Albans, Vermont today. Combined with the 2.1 inches of snow that fell yesterday, the storm total so far is 13.1 inches. It was still snowing at that hour, though somewhat less intensely than it did earlier. The bottom line is I'll come very close to the roughly 18 inches of new snow the National Weather Service office in South Burlington said I would get.

As of 4:55 p.m., the National Weather Service in South Burlington reported 11.5 inches of snow just today so far, for a two day total of 14.1 inches. I guess the Champlain Valley had some pretty uniform storm totals, although down toward Middlebury, there was definitely less snow than further north.

Snow totals taper off a lot as you head south and east across Vermont, as expected.

The only slight things off with the forecast were that ice accumulation was a bit heavier than expected last night in parts of the Champlain Valley. And the changeover to snow in the northwestern half of Vermont came just a wee bit earlier than expected, but not by much.

It appears the ice was also more destructive east of the Green Mountains than originally anticipated.  As of 5 p.m. Friday, Vermont Outage Map was reporting at least 13,000 homes and businesses without power, with most of those problems along and east of the Green Mountains from Caledonia County southward.

It looks like freezing rain, followed by snow that was initially wet and heavy, plus gusty northwest winds did a number on trees and power lines there.  

A snow covered car guns up equally snowy Fairfield Hill Road
in St. Albaans on Friday. 

As happy as I am with the accurate, user-friendly job the National Weather Service and area meteorologists did with this storm, I have a really serious bone to pick with some employers in Vermont.

Outfits like the University of Vermont and the state of Vermont government - at least parts of it - made people come to work this morning.

Then, when, as expected, the snow got intense and the roads became almost impassable, these idiot employers said, "Hey, Guess what?!? We're sending you home now. The storm is bad." 

Well, duh!

So, people had to drive home on unsafe roads in minimal visibility during the height of the storm.  Why did UVM and other not just have people not come to work this morning? Don't use the excuse, "Well, the roads weren't that bad at 8 a.m.!"

Never mind that every single Vermont weather forecast I came across this morning - all the TV meteorologists in Vermont, Eye On the Sky, the National Weather Service - were basically screaming that things would get out of hand with the weather by mid-morning. And that's exactly what happened.

I guess these employers don't give a crap about their employees' safety.

Kudos, by the way, to my supervisor at Gardener's Supply, where I work, who called me before 8 a.m. and told me not to come to work because of the weather.  Which meant I avoided a terrible, potentially dangerous commute back and forth between St. Albans and Burlington, Vermont.

 (I asked UVM about all this by responding to their Twitter message about the midday closure, but  as of late this afternoon, Twitter was refusing to let me post anything or receive messages and notifications. I don't know why.)

This evening, if you're home, stay there. Yes, the storm is winding down, but it will probably keep snowing until around midnight. True, it won't come down nearly as heavily as it did earlier today, but the flakes will keep flying. Gusty winds through the night will keep the snow blowing around too.

On top of that, this was a pretty big snowfall, at least in northwestern Vermont. It's also icy further south. Road crews were working pretty damn hard as of late Friday afternoon, but it will take a while to clean up this mess.

Vermont Emergency Management today did give one good reason why you might want to leave the house this evening.  That would be to check on your elderly neighbors.  Do they have heat? Do they need a path out of house through the snow? Are they OK?

After you're done with that, just go back inside and binge watch Netflix or something.

Also, in areas where the snow is pretty deep now, clear the powder away from vents. You don't want carbon monoxide backing up into the house. That oderless gas is a killer, you know.

In the wake of the storm, we'll have some pretty chilly air to deal with. It'll get close to zero tonight, with wind chills well below zero. It'll only get into the teens at best Saturday, and by Sunday morning, it'll be 5 to 15 below in most areas of the state.  That's the coldest it's been all winter, although that's not extreme by Vermont standards.

A brief warmup Monday means many valley locations will have some minor thawing. Say goodbye to the powder, though as the snow settles and gets wetter then freezes up a bit.

More periods of snow and snow showers will continue on and off all of next week, but there won't be any major storms or blockbuster accumulations.

It's February, deal with it.

Nasty Weather, But Lucking Out So Far In Northwest Vermont

An icy pine bough on my St. Albans, Vermont property this morning.
Ice is much less thick than expected and I'm happy to see that
so far, there's no storm damage at or near my home. 

If I am wrong about something, this is the way I want to be wrong. At least wrong so far.

It turns out, so far at least as of 6:30 a.m. , the freezing rain in northwest Vermont and northern New York is indeed bad, but not as bad as forecasts as recently as Saturday night said it would.

ICE SO FAR

Ice was definitely accumulating on the trees outside my St. Albans home as of 6:30 a.m., but so far at least, damage is very minor.

Power outages are not widespread yet in Vermont, with only scattered localized problems reported. Vermont Outage Map as of 8 a.m. had about 500 homes and businesses in Vermont without power, but that number has slowly been creeping up early this morning.

Most of the 30,000 or so outages in New York State as of 6 a.m. were in far western New York, where wind, not ice is the main problem.

We're not totally out of the woods yet, because many areas of northern New York and northern Vermont have a couple or few more hours of freezing rain to go.  That will further weigh down trees and power lines that are already starting to sag, so we should still anticipate some problems as the morning and early afternoon wear on.

Winds have started to increase as of 8 a.m. and will continue to do so.  That means some ice laden trees or branches might break, increasing the risk of power failures. But it still won't be as bad as we feared yesterday.

Ice is many areas is getting close to the point where it can start causing damage. Ice was  0.30 in hes thick in Clinton, New York; 0.22 inches thick in Plattsburgh, New York as of 6 a.m. and  0.17 inches thick in Burlington, Vermont.  At 0.25 inches,you start to see minor damage, and damage becomes pretty widespread at 0.5 inches.

At my place in St. Albans, I was relieved to see ice only 0.15 inches thick on trees so far as of 7:30 a.m. Even if we get a little more ice, I don't anticipate much damage around my property. The worries I had for my trees before the storm yesterday turned out to be unnecessary.

Of course as conditions change this morning, I'll update this post, or put up additional breaking storm news.

Still, it looks like ice accumulations for most people in the ice storm zone have a good chance of turning out to be less than expected.  The less ice the better, obviously.

Small differences in temperature made big differences as to what is happening out there. Saturday evening, temperatures crashed rapidly from the 50s to the 30s just as expected. But then, temperatures held just above freezing for a longer time period  than anticipated. That delayed the onset of the freezing rain.

For instance, Plattsburgh, New York didn't touch 32 degrees until around 1 a.m. this morning.  That was a good three or more hours later than expected. Which meant Plattsburgh "missed out" on three hours of freezing rain. I'm sure few people are disappointed by that.

The amount of precipitation was well forecast.  As of 7 a.m. Plattsburgh had collected about 1.5 inches of rain and melted ice, which is exactly in line with forecasts.

Outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont, temperatures have hovered around 31 or 32 since after midnight. It's not that far below freezing, so things don't turn to ice quickly.  As of 6 a.m., I was having a freezing rain downpour.   It was coming down so hard that a lot of the water was running off trees and power lines before it could freeze.

It has since tapered off to a freezing sprinkle.

Needless to say, though, the roads are quite icy. Stay off them until the freezing rain stops and crews have a chance to clear them.

Not everybody seems to be escaping the ice. In parts of Ontario, Canada, there is an inch of ice on everything, and there's a LOT of damage as a result.

Maybe people will say this storm was hyped here in Vermont and New York and we were all crying wolf.  But like I said, one or two degrees in temperature has so far made a big difference.

We'll see if things hold up well for the tail end of the storm.

FLOODING, RAIN, ODD TEMPERATURES

Flooding is still a concern as well, especially in northern and central Vermont. The hours of non-freeing rain was already pushing the Mississquoi River to flood stage early this morning. Many smaller creeks and streams are really high.

Other rivers, like the Lamoille, Winooski, Mad and Otter Creek, are still expected to reach flood stage, if they're not already there now.

The temperature contrast in southern Vermont continues to be amazing. At 6 a.m. Rutland was down to 34 degrees but Bennington was still at 62 degrees.  And 62 degrees at dawn anywhere in Vermont in January is something to behold, for sure.

The rain and freezing rain in Vermont this morning will turn to a period of snow in many areas by or during this afternoon, but it won't amount to much. Maybe an inch or so here and there.

The weather will remain active through the upcoming week, but any systems that come through will be weak with only light precipitation.

A more substantial storm seems like it wants to hit around here next weekend, but it's too soon to say what that means for us.

DOWN SOUTH

While we might not have been hit as hard as expected with the storm in Vermont, the anticipated severe weather and tornadoes certainly hit the South. At least eight people died in the storms, and many homes and businesses were destroyed or damaged from  Texas to Georgia.

At least 16 tornadoes touched down in the South since Friday although that number will probably rise as meteorologists inspect damage to determine if heavily hit areas had tornadoes or straight line winds.

A couple videos:

Damage from a violent tornado in Alabama Saturday. Notice how far debris and entire homes have been thrown:



More damage around Bossier City, Louisiana

Forecast Worsens In NW Vermont; Lots Of Damage In South, Midwest

Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see. The Saturday
morning update to expected ice accumulations.Expect some
ice damage in areas shaded in red. Purple areas can expect
a lot of damage and power outages. 

Northern New York and northwestern Vermont are screwed.

These areas now appear all set to receive a damaging ice storm.   By Sunday morning, a lot of homes and businesses will be without power, and a lot of trees and branches will be on the ground in what will likely be the worst ice storm since 1998.  

As of this morning, the National Weather Service in South Burlington had extended the ice storm warnings that were already in effect for northern New York eastward to encompass Grand Isle county and the western half of Franklin County in Vermont.

In northern New York, ice accumulations are expected to be over an inch in spots. That's more than enough to cause severe damage to trees and power lines. In the ice storm warning zone in Vermont, ice is forecast to be a half to three quarters of an inch thick by Sunday morning.  That's also more than enough to cause a lot of damage.

(As noted yesterday, the criteria for an ice storm warning is if a half inch or more of ice from freezing rain is likely to accumulate. If less than a half inch of freezing rain ice will accumulate, the National Weather Service will go with a winter weather advisory.)

The only real reason this won't be as bad as 1998 is because the freezing rain won't last as long. Instead of a three day affair, the freezing rain will all come within a 12 hour period, give or take, tonight and tomorrow morning.

VERY WET AIR

What this storm has in common with 1998 is the extreme availability of moisture for this time of year.

One common way meteorologist use to determine how much moisture is available for a storm is something called Precipitable Water, or PW.  The measurement doesn't necessarily tell you how much precipitation is going to fall, but it goes like this: If there is one inch of PW, then if all the moisture above that location condenses out, they'd get one inch of rain. You never get all of the moisture condensing out of the atmosphere, but PW is still a good guide for expected rainfall.

Precipitable Water in the atmosphere over northern New York and much of northern Vermont will be at or near record highs for January tonight.  That means rain or freezing rain will come down hard, extremely hard for January.

Total rain or melted ice in northern New York with this storm is expected to be around two to three inches. In northern Vermont, slightly less will fall, with totals expected by NWS South Burlington to be in the one to two inch range.

For comparison, total precipitation for the entire month of January is usually between two and 2.5 inches of rain.

FORECAST STILL TRICKY

As we've been describing, this storm is bringing wet and record warm air up the East Coast.  Places from central New England on down through the Middle Atlantic States and maybe points south will have a lot of record highs today and Sunday.  It could get as high as 80 degrees in West Virginia and the upper 60s in southeastern New England.

Meanwhile, just as the heaviest rain is expected to move into northern New York and Vermont that shallow cold front will come down from Quebec.  Warm air will still roar northward above this cold front, so the precipitation will come down as rain and freeze on contact down on the North Country.

Cold air is more dense than warm air and tends to sink toward valley floors, so this cold air will creep southward more easily where it isn't blocked by mountains. That means it will get cold tonight in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys pretty easily

In Vermont, the cold air has got an open shot to get down as far as Rutland, but it remains to be seen how far the chilly air does get.  There will be a sharp temperature contrast in Vermont, with 20 degree temperature differences late tonight and early Sunday with miles of each other.

Sunday morning, it will probably be in the 20s in far northwestern Vermont and near 60 in the southeast corner.

The varying temperatures so close to each other means its hard to determine who will get ice and how much when you get south and east of Franklin County, Vermont.

Burlington is a wild card. It's the most populated area of the state. It's hard to say if there will be enough ice there to cause a fair amount of damage or will the ice be not that bad? It's almost imposssible to tell.

A weather front will sweep west to east across the region Sunday morning and afternoon, mercifully ending the freezing rain as a brief period of snow, with little accumulation.  Gusty winds with and behind the front will probably cause more damage and power outages and ice-laden trees in the north sway and possibly collapse in the breeze

FLOODING WORRIES

Expected precipitation (rain and melted ice) for the upcoming storm
Areas in yellow and orange can expect to at least 1.5 inches of
precipitation, which is an awfully lot for January. 

Notice I mentioned the precipitable water, above. Areas in northern and central New York and northern and central Vermont that don't get a lot of ice will get a lot of rain.

 Flood watches are still up for all of Vermont except near the Canadian border, and the far southern two counties, where it won't rain nearly as hard as further north.

Very mild air today across all of Vermont and tonight in all but northern Vermont will quickly melt what snow we have out there. All this rain will add the runoff with the melting snow will set probably set up some floooding.  

The first problem will be small streams and creeks tonight, which could wash out parts of roads, driveways and culverts.

The water will then flow in to more major rivers. As it stands now,  forecasts call for moderate flooding on parts of the Winooski and Mad Rivers and Otter Creek, with minor flooding elsewhere.

You've heard the terms minor and moderate flooding bandied about, and here's what they mean:

Minor flooding means few, if any buildings will get flooded, and just some roads, fields, parklands and flood plains will go under water.

Moderate flooding means some buildings might start to flood, roads will be closed by flooding and a few spots might have to be evacuated.

SAFETY:

I'll re-up some tips I put out yesterday here in this space:

1. Today is the day to buy batteries, bottled water and other supplies you'll need to get through power outages that could easily last hours, and perhaps a few days in some spots, especially in northern New York. Remember, especially if you have well water, the pump for the water won't work without electricity.

2. Charge your devices today and this evening, too, so they'll have a full charge in case you need them tomorrow. Remember, Vermont's spotty cell service might be even spottier in areas that get freezing rain, as power outages can affect things, too.

3.  Grab some cash from your bank or ATM, and fill up the car's gas tank. If there's power failures, gas pumps won't work, and stores won't be able to process debit or credit card purchases.

4. If you have a generator, please, please make sure the exhaust is at least 15 feet from the house if posssible and pointed away from the house. You don't want to die of carbon monoxide poisoning.

5.  This should go without saying, but stay away from fallen wires, even if they don't seem like they have electricity flowing through them. Stay out from under ice-laden trees, too. You never know if or when they'll collapse.

6. Check on the elderly and ill, and make sure they're warm enough. If not, and if possible, bring them to someplace that IS warm.

7.  This should be another "Duh!" tip, but don't drive through flooded roads.  It doesn't take much water to sweep a car away.  An additional hazard is the water this time of year is cold, making your chances of dying of drowning and/or hyperthermia greater and quicker.

8.  When this is over and you need to drive somewhere get all the ice off all of your car or truck. Ice flying off your vehicle on the highway can hit the car behind you, breaking their windshield or causing them to lose control and create a crash.  Store your vehicle in a garage if you can. If not, and to make things easier, cover as much of your vehicle with a tarp as you can and secure the tarp down so it doesn't blow away.

After the freezing rain ends, carefully remove the tarp and your vehicle should largely be ice-free.

DANGEROUS NATIONAL WEATHER

As expected, there's widespread damage from severe thunderstorms and some tornadoes in the South, a lot of flooding in other spots, and a bunch of freezing rain and ice damage in the Midwest.

So far, there have been reports of three deaths in Lousiana due to either tornadoes or severe storms.

In Logan, Arkansas, a tornado destroyed a house but the family who lived there was not hurt because they were in a storm shelter, the National Weather Service reported. Damage from the severe thunderstorms was reported from Texas to Tennessee.

Severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes were ongoing early this morning from Kentucky to the Gulf Coast.

Alabama and parts of Mississippi and Georgia are under the gun today for severe storms and possible tornadoes.

A huge area encompassing much of Missouri and Illinois and substantial chunks of adjacent Arkansas and Oklahoma were under flood warnings this morning.

The ice storm that will affect northern Vermont tonight and tomorrow has already brought widespread  icing from Oklahoma to the Great Lakes.

Here We Go Again: More Vermont Winter Weather

This morning's take from the National Weather Service in South Burlington
as to how much snow they think will fall tomorrow. Central and northeastern
Vermont seem to be in for the most. Expect this map to change,
as it's a tricky storm forecast.

Skiers and other winter sports fans will be happy, people holding out a slim hope ot finish fall chores will not:  Another bout of stormy winter weather is about to hit Vermont.

It's been an nearly unrelenting, remarkably early winter, and the next episode consists of a very hard to forecast storm expected to hit Vermont Sunday.

When forecasters looked at the situation on Friday, it seemed the storm would go far enough to the south such that only the southeastern half of Vermont would be affected and even then, most places would come out with not too much snow.

This morning, the National Weather Service in South Burlington says overnight guidance has shifted everything to the north and west.  That means it appears even the northwest corner of Vermont will probably get a least a little bit of snow and schmutz.

At this point, a good chunk of central and northeastern Vermont will get the worst of it. These areas are now under a winter storm watch for most of the day Sunday.  In those spots, predictions call for four to eight inches of heavy, wet snow, possibly mixed with some icing.  That winter storm  also extends into  northern New Hampshire and western Maine.

Most winter storms in New England are hard to predict and never come out exactly the way meteorologists predict.   Sunday's storm has an even higher bust potential than most storms.

There's a lot of things that can screw up the current forecast, so take any prediction with a bit of a grain of road salt. First of all, temperatures through a pretty thick layer of the atmosphere from the surface to a few thousand feet overhead look like they're going to be right near 32 degrees for most of the storm and in most of Vermont.

Freezing rain or even a bit of plain rain could mix in especially in the valleys of southern Vermont, perhaps from very roughly Route 4 south. NWS Burlington thinks the heaviest snow will come down along the spine and east slopes of the Green Mountains from about Killlington north.

The snow is likely to be wet and heavy, which raises the fear of more power outages where the snow comes down the hardest late Sunday morning and afternoon.

The Champlain Valley is a wild card with this storm. Earliest guesses call for one to four inches of wet snow in that area.  However, if the storm keeps trending even a bit further northwestward, we could get a lot more. Or, if the temperature is a degree or two warmer than expected, rain might mix in.

Computer models still have not settled on a precise storm track, either.  It could go a little more to the north and west, causing more snow up north, or bringing in more warm air to change some areas to rain or freezing rain. Or, we could go back toward Friday's scenario, which would have far northwestern sections escape most of this.  So yeah, it's iffy.

The bottom line is to expect some lousy weather nearly statewide Sunday. Lousy, that is, unless you're into skiing or riding, because many of the ski resorts seem to be in for another installment of snow.

Wet snow is especially slippery to drive on, so you might want to consider postponing travel on Sunday, or taking off today instead.

And remember, I almost guarantee the storm won't play out exactly how I laid it out in this post.  This just gives you a general idea of where this is going.  There will be changes and surprises with this one.

There's no rest for the weary. Another storm will come along for the big travel day on Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving. At this point, it looks like that one will be mostly rain locally, but you never know.

Much colder air and snow showers will arrive Wednesday night and Thanksgiving, so I'm sure there will be some travel issues during that time frame, too.

Nor'easter Slams New England; Vermont Very Wet And Windy

Lots of damage from last night's nor'easter in Lynn, Massachusetts
Photo via Twitter, @marshallhook.

Boy, this nor''easter really packed a punch in southern New England overnight!

It's a mess down there, with fallen trees everwhere. No wonder, with reported gusts of 90 mph in Provincetown, 89 mph in Wellfleet and 88 mph in Fairhaven, all in Massachusetts.

The Weather Channel reported that more than 500,000 people were without electricity in different parts of the Northeast overnight.

The nor'easter then moved inland and early this morning was on the New Hampshire/Vermont border, a little below White River Junction. 

That means we in Vermont, as expected are in for a miserable day.

The worst of it will be in western Vermont and eastern New York, as a pretty good rain band has set up there, and could linger for a good part of the day.  In eastern Vermont, the rain might be more showery.  Strong storms like this often ingest a band of drier air into the system, leaving parts of the storm area with less rain.

Rain in the western half of the area could be enough to cause some mostly minor flooding, especially along the Ausable River in New York and possible a little bit along the Otter Creek, Mad and Winooski rivers and maybe a couple others.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington  has flood watches up for most of Vermont, except the Northeast Kingdom.

Flood warnings are already up for the parts of the Capital District of New York, around Albany, as two inches of rain had already fallen as of early this morning and more downpours were coming.

In Vermont, it won't be a huge flood, but something to watch out for regardless.

The heavy rain will cause local street flooding, especially given that so many leaves have fallen to clog storm drains.

Strong winds might be the real story today.

Winds were really starting to pick up in Vermont before dawn this morning. This will be a problem for much of the day, especially over the western half of Vermont and especially between now and, say, mid-afternoon.

High winds have already blown throught southern and eastern Vermont overnight.  Winds gusted to 66 mph around Bennington, for instance. As of early this morning, about 10,000 homes and businesses were without power in the Green Mountain State. Most of those outages were in the southeastern half of the state.

However, those power outages will probably spread into the northwestern half of the state during the rest of the morning, as wind gusts could reach as high as 55 mph in a few spots. Shortly after dawn, the wind gusted to 54 mph at Thompson's Point in Charlotte, which is on Lake Champlain.

So yeah, bottom line is this is a pretty damn impressive storm.

Starting this evening, the storm will begin to wind down. Rain and wind will both diminish. It'll be a cool and somewhat cloudy day Friday.

Another soaking rain is possible during the middle of next week. We'll have to watch that one. Things are soaked down now, and a particularly heavy rain could cause flooding problems. It's too soon to say how hard it will rain next week, so we really can't be specific on whether a flooding risk will come up.

Vermont Snow Really Piling Up On Hills. Deeper Valleys Not So Much -- Yet

Not as much snow in many Vermont valleys as feared this morning,
but the snow is on the way. Updated National Weather Service
forecast map still shows more than six inches coming in the
yellow and orange areas, three to five inches, generally in
the blue. Snow accumulations still look really dependent on elevations

1 p.m. FRIDAY STORM UPDATE

So far today, the snowstorm is behaving largely as expected, although there are some picky details that are altering things a bit.

As expected, the lowest elevations are getting a rain/snow mix. Web cams in the Champlain Valley, for instance, show little if any accumulation.

Go up just a couple hundred feet in elevation, and it's sticking.

Run uphill another couple, or few hundred feet, and the snow is sticking to the roads. Web cams out of Berlin, Vermont showed a snow covered, slippery Interstate 89 at that relatively high elevation.

The web cams also show sagging trees under the weight of the heavy, wet snow, so it looks like power failures will be an increasing problem as we go through the day into tonight.  We were closing in on 3,000 outages or so as of shortly before 1 p.m. in Vermont.

Those outages will spread to new areas as it gets colder later today and this evening. Rain/snow mixes in the lowlands will change to all snow, and the trees and lines will get weighted down there, as well.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington added Washington and Caledonia counties to the winter storm warning, as more snow than expected seems to be coming down in those areas. Especially in the higher elevations.

There's already some relatively impressive snow totals out there so far in the mid and high elevations. By noon, Cabot had accumulated nine inches, and Middlesex had eight inches. Lots of places had two to five inches.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Storms like the one currently harassing us Vermonters have a high bust potential, as noted yesterday, and here we go with that.

The good news for most of us who have to get to work is, this Friday morning isn't nearly as bad as we thought it would be last night.

Even so, the precipitation became heavier just in time for this morning's rush hour. Which the National Weather Service in South Burlington said would happen.

So road conditions did deteriorate as we were headed to work this morning. On my trip from St. Albans to Burlington at around 8 a.m., light rain had just changed to heavy wet snow, but the road wasn't snow or slush covered - yet.

The bad news (or more good news if you're a die-hard winter freak) is most of us still have a BUNCH of snow on the way.  Yes, even in the valleys.

Overnight and early this morning, it has been snowing in the mid and high elevations, while valleys have had a cold, light rain, or a mix of light, wet snow and rain.   As of 6 a.m. roads in the Champlai Valley were good, as temperatures hovered a few degrees above freezing. Elsewhere in Vermont, it depends on where you are. Roads are good to bad, depending on elevation.

The morning will continue with the mix of rain and snow, with all snow above 1,000 feet. You'll probably notice in the valleys that it will often be more likely rain when the precipitation is lighter, and snow when it gets heavier. That's the nature of the beast.

It now looks like the most "interesting" part of this storm comes in late this afternoon and tonight. The nor'easter will strengthen as it moves, well, northeastward into the Maine coast.

When this happens, there is often added lift, or rising motion in the air to the west of the storm. Rising air encourages precipitation, and we in Vermont will be west of the storm. So precipitation will start to come down more heavily later today. 


Wet snow falling in Winooski, Vermont this morning. It was warm
enough at the time that it was not sticking to the road.

At the same time, north winds will be strengthening as the storm deepens, and that will pull down some colder air from Canada. Everybody in Vermont and northern New York will transition to snow.

The mountains still look like they will get blasted. The western slopes of the Green Mountains, the summits, the Northeast Kingdom and parts of north-central Vermont north of Route 2 will get six to 12 inches, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.  All of those spots are still under a winter storm warning until noon Saturday.

The Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley of New York can also expect six to 12 inches. Some mountainous areas look like they will get as much as a foot and a half of snow, especially in the High Peaks of the Adirondacks and the ski areas and highest elevations in the northern half of Vermont.

Lower elevations, like the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys and maybe deeper river valleys like right along the Winooski River, will get three to eight inches of snow, says the NWS. Again, this will be really dependent on elevation, with amounts rapidly increasing the more uphill you go. All these areas are still under a winter weather advisory. 

Winds will really pick up by tonight, so the wet snow and the wind will weigh down trees and power lines. Expect at least some power outages across the state overnight and Saturday morning. There could be quite a few outages, if things get bad.  Gusts will reach 40 mph in many spots. Roads will be lousy overnight and Saturday morning.

Remember, wet snow on roads is even more slippery than the powdery stuff. Slush is deceptive. It's almost always is worse than it looks.

The snow will become more and more confined to the western slopes of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks during Saturday morning then finally taper off.

Some sun will appear in many areas during Saturday afternoon, but like I said yesterday, so what, it will still be wintry. Temperatures will make it into the low 30s at best in most locations, and that stiff north wind will continue.

Sunday still looks better, but that next Arctic front looks like it's moving a little faster. Clouds will creep in across the north after a sunny start Sunday, and there might be a light rain shower toward the end of the day as temperatures briefly make it into the 40s.

Monday and Tuesday still look miserably wintry, windy and cold with subfreezing highs and lows in the unseasonable single numbers and low teens. A temporary warming trend still looks to arrive during the second half of the week, and that will melt some of the new snow, at least in the valleys.

Parts Of Vermont Still Snowbound, With No Electricity After "Wet Cement Snow"

A foot of cement like snow crushing a lilac bush and other
trees around my St. Albans, Vermont house this morning.
At least the power lines stayed up! 

The snow had mostly stopped falling across northern Vermont as of 10 a.m. Thursday after a two-day battle with heavy, wet snow.

I call it wet cement snow, and my sore back can attest to why I call it that after a couple days of shoveling this mess. And bonus! I've got plenty more shoveling to do today!

I shouldn't complain. Some people in Vermont have been without electricity for up to two days because of the storm's damage to power lines. Countless branches and trees have snapped under the weight of the snow, and many power lines fell with them.

As of 10 a.m. Thursday, more than 20,000 homes and businesses across Vermont were still without electricity, according to Vermont Outage Map.  It will take days for everyone to get their power back.

That particularly sucks in the winter, when it's chilly. Several Vermont communities have opened warming shelters for all those cold, electricity-starved residents.

The power stayed on at my St. Albans, house, but the trees are not doing so well. My Korean lilac is flattened. I hope it recovers. While I was shoveling snow yesterday, I could hear branches snapping in the woods, and occasionally in my yard. A few snaps sounded like pretty big branches. It's just warming up as of mid-morning, so the snow is starting to fall off the trees, thank goodness.

There's a brief video at the bottom of this post that shows how crushed and burdened the trees looked around my house this morning.

Storm totals included 24.1 inches in Rochester, Vemront, 17.7 inches in Greensboro and 16.5 inches in Westfield.

Snow depths on the ground are also pretty impressive in parts of Vermont for so early in the season. Rochester has 29 inches on the ground, and Westfield has 24 inches.

Trees sag under the weight of heavy, wet snow in my St. Albans, Vermont
yard this morning. Somewhere under that snow a Korean lilac is
being crushed by the weight. I hope it survives!

Yeah, like I keep saying, winter is early.

After a couple days break, we have another storm to contend with on Saturday night and Sunday. It'll be another sloppy mix of snow, sleet, ice and rain, going completely over to a cold rain for most of us by Sunday afternoon.

Yuck.

Normally, with all this snow on the ground and the prospect of rain, I'd worry a bit about flooding.

At this point, it doesn't look like it will rain hard enough to cause that kind of problem, though I'm sure we'll have nuisance water problems from snow-clogged drains and the like.

For you winter sports enthusiasts, the rain might be a bit of a bummer, but the warmth won't last long and not all the snow will melt. Especially in the mountains. Think of this upcoming unpleasantness as base-building.

It will turn chillier again starting next Monday. It's hard to say how much or when or even if it will snow next week, but knock on wood, I don't see any more blockbuster snowstorms for a little while. But that's uncertain, and things could change!

ROUGH WEATHER ELSEWHERE

It's not just Vermont that's having weather trouble this week. The same storm that got us here in the Green Mountain State is raising havoc in Nova Scotia, Canada. At last check 245,000 people there were without power due to high winds and wet snow.

The storm also cut power to at least 25,000 people in Maine.

The next tempest that will get us on Sunday - and other storms are causing problems across much on the United States. Winter storm watches extend in an arc through Montana, northeastern Wyoming and on into parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and southern Minnesota as this storm gets cranking.

Those areas can expect snow, blowing snow, high winds and in some areas, ice.

The same storm is raising the risk of severe thunderstorms and maybe some tornadoes in and around Arkansas tomorrow.

Very welcome rain is falling on California, all the way into southern portions of the state. The only drawback to that is there's a risk of debris flows in places that had all those fires. There's nothing left to hold in the soil.

Ah, yes. Deal with it. Winter is definitely the season of stormy weather.

Here's the video of the snow trying to crush the trees around my St. Albans, Vermont house:

The Snow Keeps Flying; A Harsh Winter Before Winter Begins

You can tell by this plowed pile of snow in a Burlington, Vermont
parking lot that the snow has a dangerous consistency of wet cement.

It's still snowing early this morning across much of northern Vermont and that state of affairs will continue for the rest of the day. So keep shoveling, folks.

The fallling snow still has a wet and sticky consistency, so power failures are still widespread, despite the best efforts of repair crews. As of 5 a.m., more than 33,000 Vermont homes and businesses didn't have power. 

It's been awhile since I've seen such extensive power failures last that long. And as wet snow continues to fall across northern Vermont today - albeit lightly in most areas - it's going to be very challenging to get the juice flowing.

The Rutland Herald reported that repair crews have to be slow and methodical to avoid being injured by other trees falling around them. In some places, the constant bombardment of falling branches and trees forces repair crews to temporarily retreat. It will take days to get the power flowing in some areas. Some roads this morning continued to be blocked by fallen trees, wires and branches.

Around Burlington, Vermont, the snow mixed at times with rain early this morning, so the trees weren't too laden with the snow. But just a little north around my place in St. Albans, Vermont, trees were sagging dangerously as cement-like wet snow continued to pile up. I could hear branches breaking in the woods.

A lot of us will have another challenging trip to work and school this morning. I noticed while driving yesterday it was particularly slippery out there. Wet snow is worse than powder to drive on.

So far the deepest reported accumulations have been 18 inches in Rochester, 15 inches in Ludlow, 14.9 inches in Greensboro ad 12.2 inches in East Barre.

The snow will come down pretty hard on the western slopes of the Green Mountains today, so I still expect some new reports of some pretty high totals. In valley locations in northern Vermont, expect another one to five inches of new snow through tonight. Southern Vermont valleys will just get a dusting, at best.

Expected snowfall today in Vermont. Parts of the northern Adirondacks
and Green Mountains of Vermont could see six more inches.

If you think winter is off to a harsh start, even though it's not winter yet, you're absolutely right. Just take the stats from Burlington, Vermont.

As of midnight last night, the month was averaging 5.3 degrees colder than normal. Not a record, but still nippy. The city had 17.5 inches of snow so far this month, which would make it the seventh snowiest November. Plus, remember it kept snowing past midnight and will snow off and on today.

Also as of midnight, 5.07 inches of rain and melted snow has fallen on Burlington so far this month, creating a tie so far for the fifth wettest November. 

The Weather Channel reported on something called the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index, which takes into account the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the frequency and amount of snow and the persistence of snow on the ground. An organization called the Midwest Regional Climate Center keeps track of this.

The index rates the winter up to a given point as mild, moderate, average, severe or extreme.

As you might guess, all of New England is in the severe category. If misery loves company, there's plenty of it.  The Accumulated Winter Severity Index is also in the extreme category in much of the Plains and Midwest.

Of course, this could reverse itself. If the rest of the winter is mild, then the ratins will back off the severe category.

The next big storm after this one is done comes along Saturday night and Sunday. It looks messy, with mixed precipitation at the start, especially away from the Champlain Valley.

Then it will go to rain, and all this wet snow will partly melt and get slushier in the rain. We'll also have to be on the lookout for a little flooding if it rains hard and the snow melts too quickly.   The forecast for the storm will become more detailed and more accurate as we draw closer to the weekend, so stay tuned.

As Expected, Snowing In Vermont: Worse Storm Friday?

Heavy, wet, fallling snow create a rather abstract scene in
my St. Albans, Vermont back yard. 

Good morning, fellow Green Mountain Boys and Girls! Did you have fun driving to school or work this morning?

Yes, it was snowing pretty much everywhere in Vermont this morning, with just slushy light accumulation and not-so-bad roads in the Champlain Valley and other "warm" spots and a full-blown snowstorm in other sections of the state.

This morning into early this afternoon is the heart of this storm. The precipitation became heavier around dawn, and any rain in the Champlain Valley changed to snow, at least for awhile. Expect at least the risk of slick roads during this time.

As of 8 a.m., the heaviest reported snow in Vermont was 5.3 inches in Lyndonville. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington reported 0.5 inches, the first measureable snow of the season. These totals will certainly go up.

The northeast quarter of Vermont is still  under a winter storm warning, with snow possibly accumulating at a rate of an inch per hour. Web cam images from Lyndonville showed heavy snow still falling at 8 a.m. Total accumulations there will reach four to eight inches, easily.

Winter weather advisories remain up for most of the rest of Vermont, except the Champlain Valley and western Rutland County. Three to six inches of snow are due in in the advisory area.

An inch or two will probably accumulate in the Champlain Valley, with locally higher amounts.

The bottom line is this storm is so far behaving pretty much the way forecasters have said it would. Good job, meteorologists!

Do note the snow is wet and heavy, so we could be looking at some broken tree branches and power lines where the snow accumulates the most. As of 8:45 a.m., there were already at least 1,100 homes and businesses without power,  mostly in eastern Vermont north of White River Junction. The number of outages was increasing pretty fast.

Jackson the Weather Dog takes snowfall observations this
morning in St. Albans, Vermont 

Snow should taper off pretty quickly during the afternoon, except in the mountains, where snow showers will linger for awhile.

Today's snow is just the opening salvo in a remarkable stretch of winter weather that's going to grip Vermont - and much of the rest of the country for the next week at least.

Wednesday will be brutal by November standards. High temperatures will stay in the 20s, and northwest winds will gust as high as 35 mph. That would put wind chills in the single digits.

Wednesday night, skies in areas away from Lake Champlain will stay generally clear, which would invite temperatures to fall into the single digits. Actual temperatures, not wind chill.

Lake Champlain is still relatively warm. The contrast between the warm water and the cold air will keep light lake effect snows going Wednesday and Wednesday night on the Vermont side of the lake, mainly from Burlington south.

Then, more trouble looms. It's looking increasingly likely we'll get another snowfall Thursday night and Friday. This could change, but the Friday storm looks worse than today's. There's the potential for heavy, wet snow region wide, including the "warmer" valleys.

Chances are the whole area could get six inches of snow out of the late week system.  Then again, we could get lucky and the storm could, possibly, go too far to our east to really dump on us.

We'll have to watch that one closely to see if that pans out. I'll have more on that storm as forecasts become clearer.

A brief "thaw" of sorts might come in Saturday as temperatures, um, soar to near 40 degrees. But then readings go back to subfreezing for Sunday and Monday, as it looks now.

It's not just us dealing with an early winter. Snow flurries were reported this morning just northwest of Houston, Texas, which is very weird for this time of year. The storm we might be getting Friday could dump some decent snow as far south as Tennessee and Arkansas.

Up in northern Minnesota, it was around 10 below this morning in some of the cold spots.

No word yet if winter is really going to settle in, or whether we'll get a late November or early December break. It's a volatile, stormy, weather pattern, so enjoy the ride!

Earlly Wintry Blast Means Strong Winds, Remarkably Chilly Days

A windy, chillyday with snowcapped mountains in tbe background
along Lake Champlain in Charlotte Vermont in October, 2016. Over the next
several days, it will be even chillier than the day depicted in this photo/

The weather pattern across much of the United States is remarkably wintry for mid-October.

For many, including us here in Vermont, that means gusty winds and a smattering of December like days strewn in with the lingering foliage.

The first good cold front of this weather regime was surprisingly windy overnight here in the North Country.

Forecasters had anticipated gusts well over 30 mph, with winds even stronger across northern New Hampshire and much of Maine.

Vermont definitely got into the windy act overnight, and the result was more than 8,000 homes and businesses without power across the state as of 7 a.m. or so.

Winds aloft were screaming out of the west, and some of that mixed down to the surface. The mountain tops really got blasted. The summit of Mount Mansfield gusted to 89 mph, and up on Whiteface Mountain, New York, it got up to 79 mph.

At slightly lower elevations, where most of us live, the winds were gusty enough to bring down a lot of trees, branches and power lines. Brookfield and Wells gusted to 54 mph and Montpelier reached 48 mph. Many, many places gusted past 40 mph.

The wind will gradually diminish during the course of the day, but we are stuck in that wintry pattern for the next week or week and a half or so. That means several cold fronts from the northwest. None will have much precipitation, but we'll have light rain and snow showers every couple of days.

Some cold fronts will bring incredibly cold air for this time of year. It'll generally stay windy, though not as gusty as last night. The winds will hold temperatures sort of, kind of, up at nights. We'll have a fair number of nights that get down into the 20s, but that's not totally out of whack for this time of year.

A few afternoons will be downright December-like, though. Thursday's highs will only get into the 30s, which will challenge record low maximum temperatures for the date. We'll just start to warm up Friday when another cold front will plunge us back into a taste of early winter for the upcoming weekend.

Snow has been falling in weird places, and not falling in places where it should. It snowed as far south as northern Texas yesterday. Meanwhile, no measurable snow has yet fallen  in normally frigid Fairbanks, Alaska.  Their first measurement snow, on average, is around September 27.

Overall, snowcover across North America is well above normal for this time of year. It's uncertain, but the Weather Channel posits that all this early snow, mostly in Canada, could create a pool of particularly cold air in that country. If that happens, we in the United States, especially the Great Lakes and Northeast, would be prone to more frequent and more harsh winter cold waves than usual.

That idea is not cast in stone, but it definitely could happen.

I'm not done with fall cleanup, not by a long shot. So let's all hope for some sort of Indian Summer in November. Could happen, right?

Sunday Evening Snowstorm Update For Vermont And North Country

The area around a little brook that flows past
my St. Albans, Vermont house turned into a pretty
winter scene today  

As Sunday evening falls, the early seasons snowstorm across the North Country is continuing pretty much as expected.

We're still going to see some impressive accumulations up in the high country of New York and Vermont. Maybe northern New Hampshire, too.

The only thing the storm has done so far that was unexpected is the rain changed to snow earlier than expected in many areas of the region.

That just means the snow will be even a little deeper than first thought.

Just as I said this morning, though, the big winners still look to be New York's St. Lawrence Valley, the Adirondacks, and the spine of the Green Mountains. Plus the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

As of late afternoon Sunday, there have been reports of up to six inches of new snow in northern New York and up to four inches in Vermont. Here at my weather hacienda in St. Albans, Vermont, we were up to 1.7 inches of new snow as of 4:15 p.m.

A few trees still have leaves clinging to them.
Here a buckthorn with leaves leans towards power lines
and te road near my St. Albans, Vermont house 

Totals so far are even more impressive in high elevation towns in east central New York, the Berkshires of Massachusetts and high country in southern Vermont east of Bennington.

Some of these include 15 inches in Taborton, New York, 12 in Hoag Cornners and Canaan, New York, 9.7 inches in Lenox, Massachusetts and 9 inches in Woodford, Vermont.

The National Weather Service is still calling for four to each inches of snow in elevations above 1,000 feet, and I suspect that it will be closer to eight inches than four by the time things start to taper off Monday.

Ski resorts and summts and such could easily get 12 inches or more. I still think we'll still get a couple spot reports of two feet on some summits, such as Jay Peak.

The Champlain Valley can expect about an inch or a little less right on the Lake Champlain shore, but otherwise, a good 2 to 4 inches is likely.

Up toward St. Albans, away from the lake, the way things are going, I'm guessing three to five inches there.

The Monday morning commute still looks like it's going to be a disaster in much of New York and Vermont. Leave for work much earlier than usual, and take your time getting there, please.

The snow today is wet and sloppy, so power failures have been a problem. Vermont Outage Map has been near 2,000 people out today in Vermont. Some places get their power restored, while others lose it.

This will continue tonight, although I'm hoping it won't get too, too much worse. The snow will turn more powdery, and that type of snow would blow off tree branches and power lines better.

If you're like me and haven't gotten all your outdoor autumn yard chores done yet, I think you're screwed.

A state highway plow clears slush off the road
in fromt of my St. Albans, Vermont house Sunday
afternoon. Expect a slippery, icy, slow commute
Monday morning. 

The snow isn't going to go away very fast. It's going to stay cold all week, though there might be some minor thawing in the valleys Wednesday and beyond.  Plus, the snow fell on warm ground, so there will be a little melting from below.

But that minor melting is literally cold comfort.

On top of that, other storm systems are likely to affect northern New England early Thursday, Saturday and next Monday or Tuesday.

At this point, none of these storms look like they will be blockbusters, but they have the potential to drop more snow or mixed precipitation on all of us.

Stay tuned on that one.

Vermont Big Storms Moving Out; Autumn-Ish Weather Arrives As Planned

The Shelburne News in Shelburne, Vermont
had this photo of the burning Old Dairy Barn
this morning. The fire might have been
started by lightning. Photo from
Twitter via NECN and Shelburne News

Boy, that was a humdinger of a thunderstorm that went over my St. Albans, Vermont house around 4:30 a.m.

It wasn't severe, but there was TONS of lightning.

There was a severe thunderstorm warning out for my area during that storm, but there's no damage immediately around my house.  Trees were reported down, though, on power lines in Grand Isle and Franklin, towns that are pretty darn close to my house.

But there was damage. The worst - and saddest - might have been in Shelburne, Vermont.

The historic and beautiful Old Dairy Barn at Shelburne Farms, built in 1891,  burned to the ground this morning, the Burlington Free Press reports.

Though the cause of the fire has not yet been determined (It was still burning at 10 a.m. Sunday as I write this) the thought is the blaze might have been started by one of many hundreds of lightning strikes that hit Vermont this morning as the squall line went through.

More than 4,000 homes and businesses across Vermont had no electricity earlier this morning because of the storms. Fallen trees brieflly blocked roadways in Northfield and Jay, among other places.

Yesterday, it seemed like there was the possibility of a tornado or two forming in northwestern New York, especially in the St. Lawrence Valley, but I've seen no reports of twisters, so that's good.

Trees - some starting to turn color, bend in gusty, cool
winds this morning after a sharp cold front
moved through. Damaging thunderstorms hit
Vermont earlier in the morning. 

As I write this, the strong storms were moving into eastern New England and will no longer be a bother by this afternoon.

It was cloudy, breezy and much cooler across much of Vermont after the storms. September is finally here, a week and a half late.

Burlington already set its high temperature for today. It was still a whopping 81 degrees at 12:01 a.m. this morning. It's in the 60s now, and won't get much past 70 this afternoon, even as skies clear.

Tonight will get into the 40s for the first time since early June.

After a brief return to summer - 80 degrees on Tuesday - and even stronger cold front arrives Wednesday with more showers. After that, it'll be really cool for a couple days.

Just low to mid 60s Thursday afternoon, and the first frost of the season in sheltered cold mountain valleys in Vermont and surrounding states looks like an increasingly safe bet Friday morning.

Damaging Big Winds, Rain, Ugly Day in New England Today

Damage to a farm during a downslope windstorm
along the westenr slopes of Vermont's Green Mountains
in December, 2010.

Today's a GREAT day to stay inside and watch television in Vermont and the rest of New England, along with much of New York State.

That's assuming the power stays on.

A strengthening storm is moving up through the Great Lakes today. It's the same one that was partially responsible for a tornado last night that injured three people in Cape Coral, Florida.

This strong storm has a lot of screaming winds with it just a few thousand feet above the Earth's surface, and certain conditions will make some of this strong wind mix down to where people live, at least in some parts of New England.

One target area is the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

In today's sort of set up, there's going to be a strong east wind that will go up and over the Green Mountain range. Think of water in a brook going up and over a submerged rock and you can sort of get the picture of how the wind is behaving.

Often, a layer of colder air jus below the mountain summits might temporarily block the flow of air that wants to go up and over the mountains, then down the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

The air piles up and becomes pressurized, as if we built a dam just downstream from that rock in the brook.

After a while, the air behind that dam breaks through it, and roars down the western slopes of the Green Mountains. Which is why you get the bursts of strong, damaging gusts along those western slopes. It's like the rush of water you get if the brook bursts through that dam you built.

In the worst cases, I've seen these western slope gusts reach 90 mph or even a little more.

That's why Green Mountain Power is taking no chances. They've got trucks and people deployed and ready to go, because they're expecting power failures.  You can see some of what these western slope wind storms can do in Vermont in the video at the bottom of this post.

Winds late this morning and this afternoon could gust as high as 65 or 70 mph in a few spots along the immediate western slopes of the Green Mountains from Cambridge/Underhill Vermont all the way down into Rutland County around Mendon, Shrewsbury and that area. Even areas east and northeast of Bennington could get in on the action.

The western slopes of the Adirondacks could also get strong winds today as well, and a high wind warning is posted there.

In Massachusetts, high wind warnings are up for much of Cape Cod, the Islands, and Cape Ann. There will be a fairly brief period this afternoon of winds gusting past 60 mph there.  This is especially true as a cold front approaches.

There might be a few embedded thunderstorms, or at least towering shower clouds. These, too, could "grab" high level winds and bring them down to the surface.

Downeast Maine could also see some strong, damaging winds this afternoon and evening.

Coastal flood advisories and warnings are also up along Long Island and the New Jersey shore, too.

The rest of New England and New York will probably be fairly windy as well, with gusts in many areas in the 40 to 50 mph range.

There's going to be quite a bit of rain, too. Bad news for the ski industry, as the rain will fall even on mountain summits.

In fact, there's a flood watch out for much of New Hampshire and parts of western Maine because the one to two inches of rain, combined with melting snow could lead to some flood problems.

In the rest of New England and New York, there might well be some trouble with water ponding on roads, flooding in poor drainage areas, that type of thing.

During this brief burst of warm weather during the storm, a few towns and cities in New England could see some record high temperatures for the date.

Winter comes back tomorrow, and unlike the brief visit last week, it's going to stick around for awhile.

I don't see signs of extreme cold or extreme snows in the next week, but Northeast ski areas will recover from today's rain through almost daily periods of snow and good weather for snowmaking

In additon, the lake effect snow machine is going to get cranking, and some of the traditional western New York snow belts are about to get clobbered. Up to two feet of snow might fall under the more persistent squalls.

Here's that video of what one of those Vermont western slope wind storms look like. This one was in Williston, back in December, 2010.



At best, these western slope wind storms can just be loud and unpleasant, as shown in this video I took in Underhill, Vermont, December, 2012: