Hanna, Now A Hurricane, Steals The Show. Also: Vermont Heat AGAIN!

Radar of Hurricane Hanna east of Corpus Christi, Texas this
morning. Powerful winds and storms now completelu
encircle Hanna's eye, which means further
strenthening is likely until the storm
makes landfall this afternoon. 

A few days ago, it looked like we would spend the rest of the week talking about a would-be hurricane named Gonzalo, while ignoring a nothingburger in the Gulf of Mexico.

As more proof that the tropics can be unpredictable, the "nothingburger" is now Hurricane Hanna, and it's about to strike southern Texas. And cause lots of problems.

Satellite views of Hanna overnight showed it organizing quite well, forming an eye with curved bands of intense thunderstorms surrounding that center.

The National Hurricane Center confirmed that as of around 7 a.m. this morning, top sustained winds in Hanna had reached 75 mph, enough to be the first Atlantic hurricane of the season.

It looks like Hanna will keep strengthening until it hits the southern Texas coast this afternoon.  The only thing keeping Hanna from become an even bigger monster is it doesn't have much time to get more powerful before it makes landfall.

However, powerful thunderstorms managed to completely surround the eye of Hanna as its central air pressure lowered. That's certainly a great recipe for further strengthening. Some observers  this morning were wondering if top winds could reach 90-100 mph.

Don't think for a minute so called "weaker" Category 1 hurricanes don't cause a lot of problems. This one will create a lot of difficulties, as most Cat 1's do.  It will cause wind damage. Even worse, storm surges of three to five feet above normal sea levels are expected around and south of Corpus Christi.  It's a low coast line, so that will cause lots of flooding.

Worse still, Hanna will dump between six and 12 inches of rain on far southern Texas, which will cause a lot of flash flooding.

There's more bad news with this:  A hurricane that is growing stronger as it nears the coast is especially bad because it catches people off-guard.  Some people in southern Texas might have been saying yesterday, "Oh, a tropical storm. I guess we won't have a beach day on Saturday."

Now, they have little time to get out of the way of wind, storm surgest and inland flooding.  I was, however, heartened to see news video of LOTS of cars driving away from the southern Texas coastline Friday evening.

Additionally, as we've all heard on the news, Texas is enduring a terrible spike in illnesses, deaths and hospitalizations due to the Covid-19 pandemic.  So on top of the extreme health crisis, southern Texas has to deal with a hurricane.

How do you socially distance in evacutation centers?  What if people are hurt or need to be rescued during Hurricane Hanna when medical and emergency teams are already stretched so thin?

They told us way back in the spring this would be a difficult hurricane season.  This is the opening salvo, and it's certainly not a good one.

Going back to the other tropical storm, Gonzalo, it's falling apart.  It will bring tropical storm conditions to some of the Windward Islands, and it's still expected to dissipate in the Caribbean Sea.  You never know what will happen to Gonzalo's remnants in a few days, so its currently disorganized mass of clouds could come back from the dead in a week or so.

VERMONT HEAT OVERPERFORMS AGAIN

Speaking of things that keep rising from the dead, another hot spell is coming to Vermont, especially Sunday and Monday.

There had been hope earlier in the week, that temperatures would stay pretty close to normal, continuing a trend that started Tuesday and continued through Friday. All four of those days were only slightly warmer than average, instead of torrid.

It's back to hot again for a few days. Today won't be too bad, because humidity levels are pretty comfortable. Still, afternoon highs will get into the 80s pretty much statewide.  The broader, wider valleys will probably get into the upper 80s

The humidity will increase by Sunday, along with the temperatures. Burlington could easily see its 16th 90 degree reading of the year tomorrow, and we might make it to #17 on Monday.

It doesn't look like there will be any cooling thunderstorms Sunday. However, on a very muggy Sunday night, and early Monday, some weather disturbances riding over the northern edge of the Northeast U.S. heat ridge could bring showers and thunderstorms to Vermont. If they happen, it's most likely north of Route 2.

Scattered hit and miss  showers and storms could punctuate the heat and humidity Monday.  A cold front slowly sagging south through northern New England will gradually bring relief to us later Tuesday and especially Wednesday, when temperatures will fall - and I use that term loosely - to readings that are similar to what we've had the past three or four days.

Will Vermont See A Rare 100 Degree Day Today?

Will it get to 100 degrees today in Burlington, Vermont?

As we said yesterday, today is going to be terribly hot across Vermont and surrounding areas.  Pretty much everybody will be in the 90s, and the whole state is under a heat advisory, except the extreme northeast corner of the state.

The speculation has started on this one: Will Burlington, Vermont reach a rare 100 degrees today?

It's only been 100 degrees in Burlington four times since they started keeping track of this stuff in the late 1800s.

Those times were:

100 degrees, July 3, 1911
101 degrees, August 11,1944
100 degrees June 19, 1995
100 degrees July 14, 1995.

Will today join this list?

The National Weather Service in South Burlington decided to pull the trigger and predict a high of 100 degrees today.  However, meteorologists at the NWS office note that some factors might prevent us from getting that hot.

It might "only" get to between 97 and 99 degrees.

Following are the factors that would encourage a reading of 100 degrees and factors that argue against it.

FOR 100 DEGREES

Computer forecast models that show a good layer of the atmosphere can support such temperatures down here near the ground.

Southwest winds that can compress the air coming down the slopes of the Adirondacks, thereby heating the air more than it would otherwise.

The air will mix well in the lower several thousand feet of the atmosphere. That would bring the humidity down a bit.  If the humidity is lower, then it can get hotter.

There should be a lot of sun this afternoon, which obviously encourages heating.

It's been dry.  Wet ground adds humidity to the air, and as noted, actual temperatures have a harder time reaching their maximum temperature with higher humidity.  All four cases in which it was 100 degrees in Burlington came during dry periods, like the one we're in.

AGAINST 100 DEGREES

Forecast models this morning indicate the airmass will be marginally cooler than forecasts issued yesterday, but by all means remain hot.

A dying mass of showers and thunderstorms in southern Quebec early this morning was keeping clouds across northern Vermont.   If clearing is delayed later this morning, it could prevent temperatures today from maxing out at their highest potential.

Will the southwest winds pick up just enough influence from Lake Champlain to cool things to just below 100 degrees?

It's also simply damn hard for temperatures to get to 100 degrees. Everything has to come together perfectly.  A few rogue fair weather cumulus clouds in the afternoon could easily kill chances of it getting to 100 degrees.

BEYOND TODAY

There are encouraging signs that it might stay as warm for the next week or so as initially thought.  There's going to be an ahhhhh factor here and there over the coming days.

Tonight will humid and stuffy as hell ahead of an oncoming cold front. To make sleeping more difficult, this cold front is likely to bring some scattered showers and storms overnight, especially north and west.

Storms ahead of this cold front will likely be severe this afternoon and evening across southern Ontario and western New York, but will weaken as they move into Vermont.

The actual cooler air lags well behind the cold front, so Monday will still be very warm and kind of humid, with temperatures in the 80s to possibly near 90.

Then we get into the better weather.  Dew points, a measure of how comfortably or uncomfortably humid it is out there, are expected to drop into the low 50s Tuesday.

That's the lowest they've been in weeks and definitely in the comfortable zone.

It'll probably turn vaguely humid midweek but nothing extraordinary.  The core of the nation's heat will be centered further west for awhile, temperatures will probably stay pretty close to normal for the next week or so after today's heat.

That Flash Flood Threat Materialized For Some Of Us - Dangerously

While New Hampshire and eastern Vermont were flooding, incredible
hail piled up this morning near Wells, Maine. Photo by Shawna Marie
Druin via Twitter 

While those of us in northwestern Vermont had a quiet weather night and early morning, it was anything but in eastern Vermont and New Hampshire.

That flash flood threat I spoke of yesterday materialized in some of those spots. Thunderstorms, a few of them severe, and torrential showers and thunderstorms developed over night and are continuing in those regions this morning.

All this is a developing situation, but here's what we have as of mid-morning.

Flash flood warnings are up for most of central and northern New Hampshire and bits and pieces of eastern and northeastern Vermont.  

The trouble in New Hampshire is particularly severe, with reports of life threatening flooding in Woodsville, New Hampshire, just across the Connecticut River from Wells River, Vermont.

Water was said to be pouring into the local hospital in Woodsville. Rainfall rates further north in Sugar Hill, New Hampshire were as high as five inches per hour for brief periods.  Flash flood warnings were up this morning in Vermont near Woodsville, in towns like Wells River and Bradford.

As of 8:30 a.m. today, another big are of of  concern in Vermont is a stretch along Route 2 and surrounding hill towns between Marshfield and Danville. 

That flash flood warning near Route 2 was later extended further east and north to include St. Johnsbury and Lyndonville.  There is a river bank mobile home park along the Passumpsic River that is prone to flooding. I worry about that neighborhood this morning.

The rain has really come down hard there and was still pouring as o 9 a.m. Some spots were already up to 3 inches of rain in short order, with more falling. That gush of water is no doubt sweeping down steep hills and mountains, causing a potentially dangerous flash flood situation.

Ominously, the heavy rain appeared to be sitting nearly stationary on radar images over northeastern and eastern Vermont and western New Hampshire through mid-morning. This could get really, really bad.

The storms also look pretty intense, with plenty of lightning strikes in northern Vermont east of the Greens and northern New Hampshire. There's still the risk of severe storms, too, especially further east in New Hampshire and Maine. Hail completely covered the ground near Wells, Maine this morning. The dangerous weather could extend into northern Massachusetts as well.

The flood threat will continue today in those regions through the day, while those of us who were begging for a little piece of the action to the west in the Champlain Valley will see little or nothing.

The main culprit in the troublesome weather east of the Green Mountains is sometning I just talked about here in this blog thingy a couple weeks ago: A mesoscale convective system, or MCS. 

They're common in the Midwest and Plains.  They are much less frequent in New England, but certainly do happen, often with damaging results.

It's too early to really assesswhat kind of damage, ias happened in the area hit by this New England MCS.  I do know there were some severe thunderstorm warnings early this morning in addition to the flood threat.

Vermont is prone to flooding. Different parts of the state have been declared federal disaster zones 13 times in the past decade due to flooding.  I have no idea if today's possible flooding will rise to that level.

People outside the storm zone, like in the Champlain Valley, could see a great lightning show off to the east before dawn today.

In the New Hampshire flash flood warning zone, rainfall rates were/are at times one to three inches per hour, certainly enough to produce a flash flood.

The threat from this MCS, and upper level low pressure system will continue through much of the day as this mess slowly heads east.  Additonal showers and storms will form on the western edges of this in Vermont, mostlly east of the Green Mountains today, which could cause more high water problems.

The danger is even higher in New Hampshire and western Maine, since this mass of storms will keep firing up all day as the upper level low slowly moves overhead.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center says the heavy rain and storms will persist and actually expand in  areal coverage going into this afternoon. Already, as of 10 a.m., a few showers had expanded into the central Champlain Valley.

In western Vermont, there likely won't be enough activity to cause flood trouble, but this forecast shows that anything east of the Green Mountains in particular might well be in continued trouble for the rest of the days.

Looking forward, we get a sort of break from the humidity tonight and Wednesday before it returns big time by the weekend.  There will be more threats of showers and storms with locally heavy rain occasionally between now and early next week.

Which probably means some areas of the region that are too dry will stay that way, but areas that are too wet face the risk of more water trouble.

Fast Start To Tropical Storm Season, But No Biggies - Yet

Hurricane Katrina in the devastating tropical storm season of 2005.
So far in 2020, there have been more storms than normal, but all
weak. That will change as we head further into hurricane season

If you blinked, you missed it.

But Tropical Storm Edouard formed in the Atlantic Ocean well off the United States East Coast Sunday and dissipated in less than 24 hours. Top winds were a paltry 40 mph.

The only impressive thing about Edouard was it's the earliest we've gotten to the letter "E" for an Atlantic tropical storm on record. (Tropical storms come in alphabetical order, so Edouard was the fifth tropical storm of the season).

The last time we'e seen anything like this was the previous record breaking early season in 2005, when Emily formed on July 12, 2005.

That year was when the infamous Hurricane Katrina hit.  We also had destructive hurricanes Rita and Wilma, among others.

Like most years, the early storms so far this summer have been relatively weak, with none of them becoming full-blown hurricanes. The early season of 2005 was remarkable because storms like Dennis became a Category 4 monster near Cuba and Emily in the Atlantic turned into the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record. Both storms formed in July that year.

Category 5 storms are the strongest and worst of the bunch.  

In an average year, the first full hurricane of the season gets going around August 10. The season peaks in September.

According to Dr. Jeff Masters, writing in the Yale Climate Connection, noted the early 2005 storms formed deep in the tropics. That pattern is usually a harbinger of a severe hurricane season and 2005 was certainly that.

So far, all but one of this year's tropical storms have formed further north, which is less of a sign that this year will be tough.  There might actually be another northern, weak tropical storm in our future. There's a weather disturbance over Georgia this morning.  If it emerges out into the werm waters off the coast of the Carolinas, it could turn into Tropical Storm Fay in a few days.

But don't relax.  There are plenty of other signs we could be in trouble with hurricanes later this summer and fall.

The tropical Atlanttic waters are mostly much warmer than average.  Hot water is fuel for hurricanes, as long as there's not a lot of strong upper level winds to tear thunderstorms apart. Overall water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are actually a little warmer than the toasty levels see in 2005.

The overall weather pattern, and relatively warm water tempertatures in the eastern Pacific, influence the air over the Atlantic tropical region.  Upper level winds are forecast to be relatively light in the Atlantic, which would encourage hurricanes to form.

Additionally, a region in Africa south of the Sahara Desert has been wet and stormy in the late spring and early summer.

If this pattern continues. some of that storminess would move westward off the coast of Africa into the Atlantic Ocean and spawn hurricanes.

Hurricanes forming from these disturbances coming from Africa are often the most dangerous. They have time to get strong as they move westward toward the Caribbean, and ultimately, sometimes the United States.

Even if this year turns out to be a busy one with hurricanes, everything depends on their paths.  If all of them manage to stay well out to sea, well, then who cares? It's all good.

But chances are, at least one biggie, if not more will threaten Caribbean islands and the United States. Basically, everyone even remotely near the coast from Brownsville, Texas to Eastport, Maine should keep an eye on the tropics through the autumn, just in case.

Enjoy Vermont's Last Nice Summer Day For Quite Awhile

Today is everything you want in Vermont summer day.

Any place depicted in orange is expected to have above
normal temperaturs at mid-month, according to this 8-14
day forecast. The darker the orange, the greater the chances
of warmer than normal temperatures. Only a tiny part of
the Pacific Northwest (in blue) will be coolish

There's plenty of sunshine.  It's going to be warm, with most of us getting to 80 degrees or a little above.  It won't be humid.

It's hot enough for a day at the beach and comfortable enough for a hike in the Green Mountains. You won't get rained on. Apply some sun screen and maybe some bug spray and away you go.

This will be your last chance to enjoy the Vermont outdoors for awhile.  We have another long period of hot, humid, oppressive weather that will last right into the weekend at least.

I know that a few of you like hot, humid weather, so sorry for insulting you by complaining about it.  But most of us, frankly, are not enthused about this.

It'll start tomorrow. Last night was a refreshing night for sleeping, and tonight won't be bad either.  The humidity blasts in tomorrow, and by late afternoon you'll feel it.

That warm front bringing us this nasty spell could cause a few scattered showers and tbunderstorms, but most of us won't get wet.  Another little disturbance could trigger some showers and storms here and there on Wednesday, but, again, not all of us will get wet.

The partial cloudiness will keep daytime temperatures "cooler" Tuesday and Wednesday with highs "only" in the mid and upper 80s most places around here.

The heat seems, at least at this point, as if it will peak Thursday and Friday with higha in aome of the valleys reaching the mid-90s. Ugh!  The humidity will be higher than during that big heat wave we had in late June, so it will feel even worse than it did back a couple weeks ago.

Overnight lows will stay in the 70s in many areas, so getting a good night's sleep will be difficult without air conditioning.

There are signs that it could turn a little wetter again by next weekend.  That would drop temperatures a little bit, but the humidity would stay awful.  At least we'll have a shot of getting some badly needed rain five or six days from now.  Of course, the way this summer is going, the prospects of rain next weekend could evaporate before we get there.

The epicenter of the heat will shift gradually from the Northeast and Great Lakes to areas of the Plains and Midwest as the week goes on. That will continue for the following week as well.

Long range forecasts are tricky, as I always point out.  As it stands now, though, a torrid, dangerous heat wave will settle into the central United States.  We in Vermont will likely be out of the main heat zone by about a week from now. However, temperatures will remain warmer than averaage, with very likely some genuinely hot days thrown in.

It's too dry here, but at least the repositioning of the heat toward the west will slightly increase rain chances here in the Northeast starting next weekend, as noted.

This is very bad news for the middle and western parts of the nation, however, Much of the Rockies and Plains are in an increasingly bad drought.  The heat dome that will set up over the Plains will shut off pretty much all precipitation chances out there.

Plus the intense, sunny heat will make the drought intensify much faster.  Wildfires in the Rockies and elsewhere will intensify, too.

The super hot weather will also drive people indoors into air conditioned spaces.  Research into the coronavirus pandemic suggests that air conditioned air, if there's inadequate outside air intake, can make the spread of the virus worse in offices, factories, apartment buildings, restaurants and such.

This summer's weather pattern is consistent with what climate experts have been watching.  Heat waves and hot spells in general across most of the globe have been getting longer and more intense. 

As an aside, I was talking with my mother, age 91, and a lifelong Vermonter.  She said she doesn't remember such consistent and long and frequent hot spells when she was younger. Sure, there were heat waves, but they didn't practically last all summer.

That's an anecdotal story, of course, but telling.

During the upcoming week, try to get into cool places as much as possible. Don't overexert yourself, even if you are healthy.  Drink plenty of liquids and check in frequently with elderly relatives and freinds, because they are especially prone to illness and death during heat waves.

That's especially true with the hot spell coming in over the next few days, because the expected muggy nights won't give ua a reprieve from the effects of the heat.

Bay Of Bengal Cyclone Could Turn Very Deadly

Cyclone Amphan, that swirl i the southwestern Bay of Bengal, is
expected to hit near the area colored in pink on Wednesday.

While we in the United States are watching weak Tropical Storm Arthur, and a semi-related flood threat in the Carolinas, a much more dangerous storm is brewing in the Bay of Bengal.

Cyclone Amphan strengthened rapidly to a Category 5 storm Sunday with top winds of 160 mph.  A cyclone is what they call a hurricane in the Bay of Bengal.  

As the storm heads north, it's pushing a storm surge ahead of it. The upside down "V" shape of the Bay of Bengal tends to worsen and pile up storm surges up higher. Where Amphan is expected to make landfall, somewhere near the India-Bangladesh border, is flat and low, making the effects of onrushing storm surges all the more deadly.

Cyclone Amphan will probably weaken somewhat before landfall on Wednesday, but that's too little, too late. The cyclone is already pushing a lot of water north, and will continue to do so, even if it becomes somewhat weaker.

A somewhat similar cyclone in 1999 killed about 9,000 people in this area. 

As Bob Henson in the Weather Underground Category 6 blog writes:

"Warning systems have been greatly improved in India and Bengladesh over the 20 years since the Odisha cyclone. However, the region's geography and high population means it is still exceptionally vulnerable, and Amphan will need to be taken seriously by all concerned. The novel corornavirus pandemic will no doubt complicate evacuation and sheltering in myriad ways."

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Arthur had maximum winds of just 45 mph this morning. It'll brush eastern North Carolina with breezes and just a couple inches of rain today.  It will then turn toward the east, away from the United States and then largely dissipate.

A second nearly stalled storm, the cut-off low that I referenced in this here blog thingy yesterday, will crawl southeastward after causing flooding around Chicago, Michigan and other areas near the Gerat Lakes. As the storm heads toward the Southeastern United States, it will interact with tropical moisture and cause potentially flooding rains in western North Carolina and southwestern Virginia over the next few days.

Up to seven inches of rain is expected near Ashville, North Carolina this week.

Meanwhile, up here in Vermont, that blocked up stalled high pressure system in southern Quebec will keep moisture away from us pretty much all week, meaning you'll really have to water your gardens.

Because of mostly clear skies at night early this week, early morning temperatures will be a bit cool for this time of year tomorrow and Wednesday.   It'll be cold enough in the valleys of the Northeast Kingdom for some frost, but that's typical for this time of year.

The vast majority of us will be fine and frost free during this spell of fair weather. Daytime highs will be mostly in the 60s early this week, but climb into the 70s during the second half of the week.

Roofers Slammed By Storm; Heed Those Severe Warnings, Folks!

Screen shot of construction workers hunkering down on a roof
as sheets of plywood fly by during a severe thunderstorm in
Nashville, Tennesee on Sunday. 

A month or so after a terrible tornado, a wicked severe thunderstorm rolled through Nashville, Tennessee on Sunday.

There wasn't a tornado this time, but it didn't matter. The National Weather Service office there recorded a wind gust of 72 mph during the storm, and I'm sure a couple places around the metro area reported winds of around 80 mph.

So yes, it was very dangerous.

National Weather Service in Nashville saw the storm coming and issued warnings well in advance, telling people to get indoors or else.

Anyone should have been wise to heed the warnings.  The storm proved once again that a severe thunderstorm warning is as serious as a tornado warning.

At least one person died in the storm, and there was a lot of property damage. The Tennessean reported at least 100,000 people were left without electricity from the storm, which is nearly double the number left without power in the tornadoes awhile back.

Quite a few buildings and houses were damaged or destroyed, and it seems like a zillion trees blew down.

Then there were the four roofers. I don't know if they didn't hear the storm warnings or just didn't heed them but they kept working as the dangerous storm approached.

A house was under construction in South Nashville, and the roofers were hammering plywood on what would become the three-story structure's roof.

They must have seen and heard the storm coming, as everyone in the neighborhood scurried inside as the skies darkened. But the roofers kept working, apparently wanting to get this Sunday job done as fast as possible.

As you can see in the video at the bottom of this post, that was a mistake.

According to television station WSMV, a neighbor, Tiffany Holt was filming the approaching storm from inside her home, near a window.

The storm hit in dramatic fashion with a wall of wind and rain. Several large sheets of plywood flew off the construction site, narrowly missing the roofers. One of those sheets of plywood might have actually hit one of  them, judging from the video.

The roofers lay down, and at least one of them fell through an opening in the unfinished roof ito the room below.   Meanwhile, blinding sheets of rain, mixed with roofing shingles, pieces of gutters and siding and tree branches continued to race by in the wind.

Holt said she could hear the men screaming in terror,

Luckily the storm was a fast mover and soon tapered off. She saw the men climb down after the storm eased and they were OK.

'We talked to them they were right here and said do you want to come in and take shelter. They wanted to get in the car and get out. So they were fine," Holt told WSMV. 

Yeah, but they were lucky they didn't get clobbered by one of those sheets of plywood. Coulda killed them.

When you hear a severe thunderstorm warning (None expected this week in Vermont, that's for sure!) get indoors and stay there until the danger passes.  These storms can be super dangerous.

Watch:

No, All These Tornado Outbreaks In The South Are Not Normal

A tornado safety closet that a family huddled in is the only thing
left of a home swept away by a tornado last week in Mississippi.
The family survived. More dangerous tornadoes are expected
today in the same region.

Another outbreak of tornadoes appears likely in the Deep South today, continuing a terrible winter and spring down there of heartbreaking twisters, severe storms and repeated, devastating flooding, all amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Today looks especially bad across the northern half of Louisiana and the southern halves of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has this area on level 4 of 5 in terms of risk level today.  So it's pretty serious.

Already, as of mid-morning, a tornado watch was up for eastern Texas and western Louisiana, including the Houston metro area. Some straight line wind and hail damage had already been reported in parts of the South as of 10 a.m. It will get worse as we go through the day.

Many of these areas are just coming off a terrible tornado outbreak exactly a week ago, so this is definitely bad news.

A few tornadoes today in this region might once again be especially strong, especially if supercell thunderstorms get going without interference from larger clusters of thunderstorms moving in from the west.

Even that larger cluster of storms from the west wil cause trouble with their own batch of tornadoes, strong winds, hail and flooding rains.

We obviously won't completely know until tomorrow how many tornadoes will form, how big they will be and whether they hit any heavily populated areas. But once again, people in the Deep South are hunkering down and praying the tornadoes miss their houses.

We are heading into the peak of tornado seasons and April tornadoes are rather normal, especially in the southeastern quarter of the United States.  Yes, tornadoes are normal, but the number of them this year, and the deaths they are causing, is anything but normal.

It turns out the tornado outbreak last Sunday and Monday yielded 132 twisters, which is a huge number for two days of severe weather.  Preliminary research indicates this is tied for the fifth-most numher of tornadoes in a two day outbreak on record in the United States.

The tie is with an April 15-16, 2011 southeastern United States outbreak. The record biggest outbreak for two days was 271 on April 26-27, 2011. So you can see 2011 was the benchmark for a horrendous tornado season, and one we don't want to repeat.

In addition to the tornado risk, flooding is a big concern in the Deep South, as it has been frequently for months now. Potentially life threatening areas of flash flooding are expected today in the same areas with the greatest tornado risk.

Not good.

The weather pattern will remain bad in the South in the upcoming week or more. Severe weather threats look like they will ramp up again Wednesday, then after, that, probably next weekend.

Storm Update: Today Still Looks Dangerous South; East Coast Danger Monday

Opening salvo: Huge hail in Del Rio,
Texas Saturday.  Tornadoes, high winds,
floods, etc are risks in the South
and East today and Monday. 

We're getting into the thick of the storm in the Deep South this morning and it will only get worse as the day wears on.

As expected, it started in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas yesterday, mostly with scattered reports of huge hail.  One supercell crossed the border from Mexico into Del Rio, Texas, throwing hail almost the size of grapefruit  down on that city last night. Baseball sized hail blasted a few towns in Kansas.

Tornado warnings were already flying this morning in northeastern Texas. This is the beginning of several waves of thunderstorms going across the Deep South this morning.

All of these storms will be dangerous, but forecasters are in particular watching central and southern Mississippi early this afternoon. There, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, supercells are expected to develop, the move across Alabama later in the afternoon and Georgia toward evening.

These are the storms that are most likely to set off strong, especially dangerous long lasting tornadoes. It's not certain whether these strong tornadoes will actually happen. But there is that risk.

Amid all this,  torrential rains and flooding are a very good bet across much of Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. There's going to be a lot of damage and heartache in the South this Easter Sunday, unfortunately.

It's now becoming apparent Monday won't be that much better. The rough weather will have ended in the Deep South, but there will be trouble along the entire East Coast from Maine to Florida.

Severe thunderstorms are likely with a risk of tornadoes, will run from Pennsylvania to Florida, with the highest risk of stronger, longer lasting twisters in Virginia and the Carolinas, along with southeastern Georgia.  There's a chance that some of the Carolina tornadoes could be as bad, or nearly as bad as the ones expected in the Deep South today.

Even in pretty big severe weather outbreaks like this, most people in the affected zone will come out of this fine with little or no property damage. But people need to be weather aware in these zones, so if they are unlucky enough to be in the target of a severe storm or tornado, they can take cover.

In New England, there will be few if any severe thunderstorms, but strong, damaging winds will come through. Wind gusts could easily reach 70 mph in the New York City metro area and in the southern half of New England.

Further west, gusts in the 70 mph range are also expected in western New York. These kinds of winds will bring down lots of trees and power lines in heavily populated areas.  There's going to be a lot of power outages, and probably more than a few houses and buildings smushed by falling trees.

Southwest winds will be so strong that Lake Erie will tilt, with water piling up on the northeast corner of the lake near Buffalo.  Water levels will fall as much as seven feet on the western end of the lake, and rise by at least five feet near Buffalo. Battering waves will make things worse.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Vermont will be a relative island of calm amid all this but that doesn't mean we'll avoid trouble. While the highest winds will probably go by to our west and east, we will still get strong gusty winds.

Ahead of the powerful storm's strong cold front, gusty south winds will strike especially the Champlain Valley. We'll all get a pretty good slug of rain, with still a risk of some flooding up in the Northeast Kingdom.

When the cold front sweeps through in the afternoon, we'll get heavier, but relatively brief downpours, with maybe some scattered thunderstorms embedded.

The worst winds will come in right after the cold front. In Vermont, many places will have winds gusting to near 50 mph.  That's enough to topple some trees, especially since the soil is wet and loose this time of year, and with all the rain expected Monday. Branches and power lines could go, too, so be ready for that!

Things will calm down somewhat by Tuesday. It'll still be kind of windy on Tuesday, but not gusty enough to cause more problems.

Here's a video of the hail in Del Rio, Texas. I like the comment from someone in the video, "Insurance adjusters, beware." Indeed!

Tornado And Severe Weather Threat Still Big Risk In South

The question of the weekend in the Deep South is where there
be more of these types of highly visible but also highly
destructive tornadoes, or.....

Meteorologists around the nation, but especially in the Deep South are still watching what could be a terrible severe weather outbreak unfold this weekend.

Not to be glib in a situation like this, but it's an April classic, at least as the overall weather set up is.

A strong - and strengthening storm will move from the Plains to the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday.  There's going to be another snowstorm on its northwest flank from the central Plains up into Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.

Strong, destructive winds and shoreline flooding are forecast for most of the Great Lakes.

But the real, most worrisome situation is the threat for tornadoes, some maybe long lasting and strong, especially Sunday. As readers of this blog thingy know, forecasters have been watching this situation for days now, and there are no signs so far that anybody can rest easy.

The first hint of trouble came Friday with a swarm of supercell thunderstorms in western Texas that produced some gigantic hail stones, as loud and enthusiastic storm chaser Reed Timmer discovered.

The trouble will begin to really blossom today. as most of Texas and a large chunk of Oklahoma fall under a severe storm threat. Tornadoes and destructive straight line winds are real threats today, but large hail is once again the predominant hazard today and tonight in this area.

The Sunday threat covers a huge area from eastern Texas to the Carolinas and from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio River.  The main bullseye for the worst of it continues to look like it will be Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi, at least as things stand now.

The question is not whether severe weather develops, it's what form it will take. The worst way it could develop if a bunch of rotating supercells form, with each one being on its own, not part of any squall lines.

If that happens, you get these wide, long lasting and intense tornadoes that cause the most extreme damage, and are the most life-threatening since they are so strong.

....or something like this not quite as strong, but still dangerous
and also hard to see coming rain-wrapped spinup tornadoes 

Things could instead develop into messy lines and cluster of thunderstorms. That's still really bad, because there would be embedded tornadoes and very serious straight line winds.

But most of the time, the tornadoes in this scenario, while still extremely dangerous, are not the high end super bad ones you get with those more isolated supercells I talked about above.

The tornadoes in these "messy" clusters have their own hazard, however. These are usually hidden within curtains of rain. Human nature sometimes prompts people to look for the tornado that's threatening them before taking shelter. Usually, you can't see this type of tornado coming.

Though there are guesses, I don't think anyone really knows how this will develop until it gets going. There will probably be those messy lines and clusters of storms, and discreet, big tornado ones,  but nobody is sure which style will predominate.

Some of the same areas most at risk for tornadoes and damaging winds also have a substantial flood risk.  At last check, most of Tenneessee and the northern halves of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia in particular are under the gun for heavy downpours and flash floods on Sunday.

It's already been a tremendously wet year in these areas and the expected three to six inches of rain Sunday and Sunday night will only trigger more flooding.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Here in Vermont, there will certainly be no tornadoes, but the storm will give us a few problems, albeit minor compared to what will go on in the South.

The storm will bring a quick slug of fairly heavy rain through on Monday. The National Weather Service is foreasting perhaps a half inch to an inch of rain.

That doesn't make me too frightened about any flooding, but we'll have to watch the Northeast Kingdom.  The mid elevations and mountains got quite a bit of snow from that last storm Thursday night and Friday. Averill, way up in the northeast corner of the state, got a foot of snow out of that one.

The lingering snow, and snow from previous storms on the mountains in the Northeast Kingdom, will do a lot of melting amid the rains coming up Monday, so there is the risk of some high water. They'll need to watch the flood prone Passumpsic River for this one.

The big story in and near Vermont with this one will be the wind. There will be gusts over 40 mph ahead of the cold front Monday morning and early afternoon.  Once the cold front passes, the winds will really crank, especially in northern New York, the northern Champlain Valley, and I think eastern slopes of the Green Mountains.

Winds could easily be strong enough to damage trees and power lines Monday, so we should keep that in mind.

Snow Update, And Humdinger Severe Weather Risk In South

Snow accumulating this morning on this soon to be blooming daffodil
in my St. Albans, Vermont yard makes it look like an
elaborate but disgruntled bird. 

I woke up at dawn in St. Albans, Vermont this morning and was delighted to see it didn't snow overnight at my place.

That was short lived when I checked the radar and a swirl of moisture, in the form of a band of snow, was on my doorstep and heading toward me.  Sure enough, a half hour later, it was snowing.

At least at my place, the snow will only briefly accumulate for a few hours this morning, then melt, probably amounting to an inch or less. But we'll see.  

However, again, sure enough, forecasts were right. It appears several inches of snow fell across many towns in north central Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom. It was still snowing in these spots as of 7 a.m.

As April snowfalls go, this really isn't so unusual for Vermont. But until now, spring was running early, so it's a little disheartening to see the snow. In the valleys, most snow showers will change to, or at least mix with rain this afternoon.  By Saturday, the snow will be forgotten, except in parts of northern Vermont where there will still be some on the grouid.

Us Green Mountain Boys and Girls should thank our lucky stars that today's weather is merely unpleasant. And that the next storm coming along Sunday night and Monday looks merely inconvenient, and not super dangerous.

We can't say the same for Maine, which is buried in snow this morning, as expected. We also can't say the same for the Deep South, where ingredients are really coming together for a bunch of tornadoes on Easter Sunday. Some of those tornadoes could be biggies.

More on that in a moment, but first, Maine.

SNOWY MAINE MESS

Heavy snow and tree damage in Bangor, Maine this morning. Photo via
Twitter by Ben Sprague @bensprague. 

It was still snowing up there early this morning, but a lot of places already had more than a foot of snow.  Wellington, Maine reported 20 inches so far. Carmel, Maine, both towns in the north, by the way, had already picked up 18 inches of new snow.

Some places, especially in and near Baxter State Park, can expect more than two feet of snow by the time this tapers off. This is just an incredible storm, even by Maine standards.

Maine's heavy, wet snow has caused some terrible power failures, according to television station WMTW in Portland. More thank 200,000 homes and businesses in the state had no power this morning.  That's almost a third of Maine without power.

The coronavirus is hampering power restoration.  Utility workers are arriving at power outage sites separately, so they're not too close together, and they need to practice social distancing on site to reduce the risk of virus transmission. So yeah, it's complicated.

New power failures will surely develop as snow and gusty continue this morning. Fortunately, the snow will taper off later today.  The trouble going forward is that Monday storm I talked about will be warm in Maine. So warmth, melting snow and pretty heavy rain expected Monday is a bad combination if you don't want flooding.

SOUTHERN TORNADO ALERT

Ingredients definitely seem to be coming together for a nasty outbreak of tornadoes in the Deep South. If things develop as forecasters think they will (no guarantees, thankfully), this could be one of the worst, or the worst, tornado outbreaks of the year. We've already had a couple terrible ones, too.

The atmosphere in the Deep South Sunday will feature very humid air from the Gulf of Mexico near the surface. Strongs winds will scream a few thousand feet overhead, and those winds will change directions with height. The air will be highly unstable, making it easy for towering thunderstorm clouds to form.  Dry air coming in from the west high overhead would also help trigger storms.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says there's a real risk of strong, long lasting tornadoes in the Deep South on Easter Sunday, and people ought to be thinking now of where they would take shelter if a tornado is approaching.

Granted, this hopefully won't be as bad as the Super Outbreak of April 25-28, 2011, which hit mostly in the South. That outbreak spawned 362 tornadoes causing 321 deaths.  This weekend won't be nearly that bad, thank goodness, but bad enough.  Possibly very dangerous.

I suppose there could be an Easter miracle in which some storm ingredient gets fouled up and makes things not as bad as predicted. But that could be just wishful thinking. We'll see.

Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season Ahead?

Satellite view of Hurricane Dorian trashing large parts of the
Bahamas last year.  Colorado State University researchers think
the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will be busy. 

Yesterday,  I speculated about the possibility a subtropical storm forming in the Atlantic, born out of the storm that gave us Vermonters the dreary weather yesterday and today.

That's still a big question mark, but the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project added fuel to the seasonal tropical expectations this year.  They're predicting a busier than normal hurricane season this summer and autumn.

They're predicting 16 named storms, compared to the normal of 12. Colorado State University says eight of those storms will be hurricanes against an average of six annually. Four of the hurricanes are predicted to be real biggies, compared to a normal of three major hurricanes.

The devil is the details, of course. Even if their forecast turns out to be spot on, Colorado State University meteorologists, or anybody else for that matter, have no idea where all these storms will form or go.

If they all somehow stay harmlessly out to sea, then it's obviously no big deal. If a lot of them start crashing onshore, especially the major hurricanes, then we have huge trouble to face.

I'm guessing you're aware there's a huge, tragic, highly disruptive pandemic going on now, and all kinds of emergency services are stretched to the breaking point. Even if the pandemic wanes over the summer - a big if - imagine trying to evacuate hundreds of thousands of people from say, Florida as a dangerous hurricane approaches.

Then deal with the aftermath - dead and injured, massive property damage, infrastructure such as roads, electricity, internet all wrecked in a big area. You can see how challenging that is in better circumstances. This is the year you really don't want to deal with this.

Last year, the United States was relatively lucky with hurricanes, even if other parts of the Atlantic Basin were clearly not so lucky.  Hurricane Dorian, which leveled parts of the Bahamas, only skirted the United States and made landfall in a weaker state in North Carolina.

Dorian did cause a lot of damage in the United States, but it could have been immensely worse. The only other highly destructive storm was Tropical Storm Imelda in Texas.  There wasn't much wind with that one, but it caused massive flooding.

We don't want years like 2017 and 2018, when destructive hurricanes hit hard in America.

One of many factors that will influence hurricanes this year is El Nino or La Ninas in the eastern Pacific. El Ninos feature warm water in parts of the eastern Pacific which help squelch Atlantic hurricanes. La Ninas, cooler water in the eastern Pacific can encourage Atlantic hurricanes.

The signals are kind of mixed this year, but feature either a situation in which there won't really be an El Nino or a La Nina. Or maybe there will be a weak La Nina.

Ocean temperatures are broadly warmer than average in the Atlantic Ocean. If that trend continues into the summer and fall, that could also encourage more and stronger tropical storms and hurricanes.

We really have to watch the Gulf of Mexico.  It's now incredibly toasty, almost at record high levels. That could change by hurricane season, but if not, that area could be a hotbed for storm development.

In the shorter term, the hot Gulf of Mexico is a potential tornado trouble maker. We're heading into peak tornado season.  A very warm Gulf would encourage warmer and more humid air than usual to make its way north into the middle of the nation.

Warmer, more humid air is one critical ingredient for severe storms.  If other conditions come together just right on occasion over the next couple of months, then tornadoes could be more destructive and frequent than usual.

Tornado season this year is already off to a bad start. So far this year there have been at least 180 tornadoes, causing 33 deaths, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Getting back to hurricanes, the Colorado State hurricane forecast, issued Thursday, is just that, a forecast.  It's not set in stone, and like all weather predictions, especially long range forecasts, this one will surely be a little off one way or another.

Forecasters will refine tropical storm expectations as we head toward the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

Don't Count On Summer Warmth To Squelch Coronavirus

Coronavirus has spread to most nations (blue shading) and will
continue to envelope the world  Viruses often wane in the
 summer, but don't count on that with th coronavirus. 

As all of us know, the coronavirus pandemic we're enduring is much worse than seasonal flu we get every year.  Many more people will die from this than the regular flu, which is why we are all in a panic.

This virus has some simularities to the flu virus though.  The usual flu the world gets every year tends to wane in the summer, as warm weather seems to hinder its spread.  That begs the question: Will we get a similar warm weather break with the coronavirus?

The answer seems to be: Don't count on it, but maybe. Even if it does wane in the summer, that won't solve our problems.

As National Geographic reports, recent research indicates many viruses are more likely to stay intact and travel further in cold, dry air.  These viruses tend not to spread well in warm, humid air.   Some scientists think that low humidity, - you know the dry indoor air we deal with in the winter - makes mucus in the nose function less efficiently.

That mucus helps block viruses and bacteria from getting into your body, and the cold air might weaken that barrier, National Geographic notes. 

Additionally, summer tends to be sunnier than winter, and viruses usually don't do well in sunshine.

Of course, summer doesn't give complete protection from viruses. People still get sick in the summer.

This conronavirus now torturing us is new, so scientists really don't know whether it will wane in the upcoming warm weather in late spring and summer.  We are totally NOT off the hook, I can tell you that.

The current pandemic is seen around the world, including the Southern Hemisphere, where summer is just ending. (Actor Tom Hanks and his wife Rita Wilson recently announced they have the virus, and they caught it in summertime Australia).

It's unclear if the coronavirus will get worse in the Southern Hemisphere as their winter sets in.  The bottom line is scientists really don't know if the coronavirus will wax and wane with the seasons.  Plus, viruses circulate all year in the hot, humid tropics, so summer isn't exactly a disinfectant.

Dr. Marc Lipsitch, Director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, writes that  "new" viruses like the current coronavirus have an advantage.  Pretty much nobody is immune to it,  unlike "old" viruses that have been circulating for years.

New viruses can jump from host to host, person to person freely, without any interference from warm summer weather.  The new viruses like the one in the current pandemic have plenty of low hanging fruit to seize.

Older viruses, not so much.  Lipsitch writes: "Old viruses, which have been in the population longer, operate on a thinner margin - most individuals are immune, and they have to make do with transmitting among a few who aren't. In simple terms, viruses that have been around for a long time can make a living - spreading through the population - only when the conditions are the most favorable, in this case, in winter."

Even if summer gives us a slight break from the coronavirus,  it could easily come roaring back in the autumn.

Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University researcher on the flu-weather connection thinks that the virus will continue to rapidly expand in the United States and elsewhere through the month of April, and might finally start to decline in late May or June. This, according to a report by Bob Henson in the Category 6 Weather Underground blog. 

It we get lucky and the coronavirus does wane in the summer, that buys us a little time to get a handle on it. But even so, it would probably come roaring back in the autumn, before humanity has had a chance to develop a vaccine and innoculate people around the world.

One ominous precedent, according to Henson in the Category 6 blog, was the great pandemic of 1918. Sporadic cases popped up in March of that year, but seemed to subside.  Then the pandemic roared to life, killing 195,000 Americans in just the span of a month in October, 2018.  The pandemic would go on to kill many more.

Whether or not this coronavirus ends up being a seasonal thing, a lot of scientists say it's here to stay, and will circulate around the globe perhaps forever, always sickening and killing people.  That's why it's so important to develop a vaccine against this thing to limit the damage and prevent the vast majority of the world from continuing to all victim to the disease year after year.

Scientists are working intensely to develop a vaccine, but one that works is more than a year away, likely more than that.

I don't offer this report just because I want to scare people. It's just to tell you we are in this for the long haul.  Keep washing your hands, folks, and keep up the social isolation.

Will This Be A Bad Tornado Year? Lots Of Questions

A large nighttime tornado shown spreading death and destruction in and
near Nashville earlier this month. 

It's usually hard to anticipate whether a national tornado season will be a bad one or a mild one.

One thing's for sure, this year is not off to a good start. Those big tornadoes in Tennessee last week killed 24 people.

Through the end of February, there were 141 tornadoes in the United States, compared to the average up to that point of 104.   This, of course, does not include that fatal Tennessee outbreak on March 3.

Through the beginning of March, there had been 32 tornado deaths in the United States this year.
The United States has, on  occasion, gone through entire years without that many tornado deaths. On average about 80 people in the United States are killed by tornadoes annually.

Some years are extremely bad. For instance, 2011 saw 553 U.S. tornado deaths. We don't want a repeat of that.

Short term, the weather pattern for much of the rest of March favors some severe weather, though it's hard to predict if those favorable patterns will yield severe weather.  There were a few tornado warnings yesterday in California of all places, but so far, there's no reports of confirmed tornadoes.

Some strong thunderstorms and maybe a couple tornadoes are possible in the South today and especially tomorrow, but again, we don't know the extent to which that will develop.

The overall pattern features a dip in the jet stream in the western United States and a ridge, or northward bulge in the East.  That favors storms moving northeastward across the central United States.  That type of track can create severe weather in the South and Midwest. But would the severe weather be widespread or not.  It depends on the dance of atmospheric conditions on that particular day.

Beyond that, who knows?  According to the Washington Post's Capital Gang, some experts predict a near or above average season.  The experts say there will be bouts of intense activity, interspersed with lulls of little activity.  The peak of tornado season in the United States goes through much of April, May and early June.

Years with a La Nina weather pattern, in which the eastern Pacific Ocean is cool, tends to favor U.S. tornadoes in the spring and early summer. This year is kind of a neutral pattern.  The eastern Pacific Ocean is in sort of a Goldilocks pattern - not too hot, not too cold.

As we know well from Tennessee, where the tornadoes hit is a big wild card, too.  If a bunch of big tornadoes go across open, unpopulated fields and forests, then who cares, right?  Blast a tornado through a city and its suburbs like Nashville, and you have a tragedy on your hands.

That's the problem we had in 2011 when big, deadly tornadoes went through cities like Tuscaloosa, Alabama and Joplin, Missouri.

So, like every year, heed those tornado warnings if they come along to your neck of the woods and do everything you can to protect yourself if you do get such a warning.

Is Nashville Tornado Part Of A Long Term Trend? And Other Thoughts On Tennessee

A neighborhood leveled by the tornado in Tennessee this week. Photo by
Mark Humphrey/AP

They continue to pick up the pieces in central Tennessee after Tuesday morning's tornado or tornadoes that killed at least 25 people and caused destruction extending for dozens of miles.

This disaster has people wondering: Is this part of a trend?

The news is disconcerting. According to CNN:

"In recent years, scientists have noticed an increased frequency of tornadoes in the Southeast, carving a deadly path in what's called Dixie Alley.

The region includes portions of eastern Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee,Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia"

While the more traditional Tornado Alley in the Great Plains and parts of the Midwest still  have more tornadoes than the South, the numbers in the South seem to be growing.

Climate change might be a factor.  

Writing for CBS News back in October, 2018, Jeff Berardelli said storm systems are tending to push dry Southwestern desert air into the Southeast further east and more often. Meanwhile,  there is a tendency for more robust pushes of warm, humid, moist and unstable air moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

The leading edge of these impulses of arid air from the west are known as dry lines.  Supercell thunderstorms, which can produce tornadoes, tend to form in the humid air just ahead of the dry line. 

Dry air is less dense than wet air, so it rises more easily.  The dry air that's wanting to rise smashes into the wet air.  The rising air entrains some of that moisture, and you get those thunderstorms.

The tornado peeled apart this stop sign
in Nashville. 

You don't even need an official dry line to get these storms going.  If some dry air moves in from the west into humid air, supercell storms can easily develop in the conditions are right.  That's why these intrusions of dry air into the Southeast can be so problematic.

Now, we can't say Tuesday's Tennessee's tornadoes were "caused" by climate change and the associated rejiggering of dances between different pieces of the atmosphere. After all, deadly tornadoes have always occured in the Southeast.  

For instance, a tornado outbreak in the Southeast in March, 1875 killed 96 people. Another tornado outbreak in 1884 killed scores of people in Alabama.   Tuesday's tornado was the third major tornado to slice through Nashville. The others were in 1933 and 1998.

So all we can say is Tuesday's tornadoes in and around Nashville were consistent with the trend scientists have been seeing.

Southeastern tornadoes are often deadlier for numerous reasons, most of which were present in the Nashville tornado.  Southeast tornadoes are a little more likely to occur early in the season, when jet stream winds make a tornado's forward speed go into overdrive.  Which means there's little time for warning.

Also, as CNN points out, Southeast tornadoes are more likely to occur late at night, instead of late afternoon or evening in Tornado Alley. That means people aren't awake to hear warnings. (The Nashville tornado came through a little after 12:30 a.m.)

The Southeast is more densely populated than the Great Plains, so the more occupied houses are likely to be hit in the South. There's a lot more trees that can topple onto homes, and those trees make it harder to see the twister coming.  Plus, Southeastern tornadoes are more likely to be wrapped in rain.  When that happens, they just look like nasty thunderstorms, and not deadly funnel shaped tornadoes.

TRUMP'S EXAGGERATION

The East End United Methodist Church in Nashvillle was
severely damaged. Photo by Mark Humphrey/AP

The following isn't as big a deal, given the loss of life and destruction in Tennessee. But it's still worth mentioning, as accuracy is important.

President Trump always has to make anything he's involved in the biggest and grandest. It makes him feel like he's handling unprecedented stuff with aplomb. That's nothing close to the truth, but whatevs.

Trump tweeted Wednesday that he's going to Tennessee to support tornado victims, which is of course nice. But he had to note the tornado had a "record size and velocity."

No and nope. The Tennessee tornadoes were certainly stronger than most.  There's a five point so called "EF" scale to measure the ferocity of tornadoes.  An EF-5 is the strongest possible.  The strongest Tennesee tornado was an EF-4 and other tornadoes, or other parts of one tornado path were at a high end EF-3, according to preliminary reports.  

Just five percent of tornadoes reported annually in the United States are EF3, EF4 or EF5 level (EF5's are rare and don't even happen every year. So yeah, the Nashville tornado was bad.

But highest winds in the Tennessee tornadoes were an estimated 165 mph or so.  The strongest known winds in a tornado reached about 305 mph in Oklahoma City and its suburbs on May 3, 1999.

The Tennessee tornadoes were probably no more than a half mile wide. Again, that's unusually large for a tornado. But it wasn't close to the record. That mark is held by a 2.6-mile wide tornado in El Reno, Oklahoma on May 31, 2013.

YES, THERE WERE WARNINGS

Some news reports said that the tornadoes "came without warning," which is false. The National Weather Service office in Nashville issued tornado warnings as the storms rapidly approached the metro area, then raced eastward into the suburbs and small towns for a few dozen miles east of Nashville.

The warnings went out about five to 10 minutes before the tornadoes struck.  That's not a lot of time to prepare, but you can at least get yourself to an interior room or basement. Tornado warnings generally don't have much lead time, especially when tornadoes have a fast forward speed, like the Tennessee tornadoes.

However, some people didn't hear warnings.  That's the difference.  NWS/Nashville did a top-notch job with the warnings, but if people didn't hear or see said warnings, they were worthless, at least to the people who didn't get them.

To get warnings, people should have multiple ways to get them.  For instance, some people rely on warnings from their cell phones. Which is a great way to receive warnings. However, in eastern parts of the tornado zone, some cell phones didn't go off, because the tornado had already wrecked cell towers.

However, weather radios, which broadcast tornado warnings immediately, worked just fine.  So people in tornado -prone zones should probably have two simultaneous ways to get warnings. Set up your phone app, but also buy an inexpensive weather radio. Weather radios cost between $25 and $100, depending on how many bells and whistles you want with it.

Don't rely on outdoor storm sirens.  Those are meant to alert people who are outdoors to take shelter. You won't necessarily hear them from inside your house.

Also, know where to go during a tornado warning and know how to do it quickly.  Basements are best. If you don't have one, go to a closet in the center of the house.  Have blankets and pillows ready there to cover yourself up as added protection.  Another good idea is to have bicycle or motorcycle helmets ready in your safe shelter to put on.  You want to protect your head if there's flying debris, so this would help.

"Storm Dennis" Is The Ultimate Beast And Potential Record Breaker

A storm in the North Atlantic, named "Dennis" by the British Met Office, is something to behold.

It could become the strongest storm on record in the North Atlantic, which is really saying something considering extremely powerful storms come a dime a dozen in the winter North Atlantic.

The lower the air pressure in the center of a storm, the stronger that storm is.  The record lowest air pressure for a North Atlantic storm was 913 millibars in January, 1993 near Scotland.  That storm broke apart the super oil tanker Braer on a rocky shoal of the Shetland Islands, causing a massive oil spill, the Weather Channel notes. 

Storm Dennis has a shot at breaking the record for the lowest air pressure in a North Atlantic storm, thus becoming more extreme than the 1993 disaster.

Needless to say, ships are advised to avoid the massive storm if possible, given the hurricane force winds and the gigantic waves associated with it

The storm will stay relatively close to Iceland over the next couple of days, but it will fling gales and towering waves all the way to Great Britain and northern Europe.  Wave heights of 50 feet are forecast near the coast of Ireland, and winds of up to 70 mph could hit coastal areas.

That means Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland in particular face the prospect of coastal flooding and extensive beach erosion by Saturday.

So far, the biggest effects from the storm, at least on land, are likely in Iceland.  The Iceland Met Office has issued its highest level weather warning for southwestern Iceland today, which is expecting hurricane like conditions, with winds of 75 mph gusting to 125 mph.  Blizzard conditions are forecast amid those powerful winds, and people there are urged to stay home during the storm.

However, before the storm  hits, residents are told to secure as many things as possible from the wind. Construction sites were also told to pin everything they can down.  Coastal flooding and damage is also likely in Iceland from this beast.

Conditions aren't expected to be quite as dramatic in Iceland's capital city of Reykjavik, but even there, conditions are likely to be dangerous today, with possible hurricane force gusts.

Icelandair is already offering to rebook passengers as flights are likely to be canceled due to "Dennis the Menace."

In both this storm, and the massive blizzard that hit Newfoundand back in January, an ingredient that helped form these two giant storms passed right over New England before causing havoc. But you'd never know it.

In January, a relatively weak storm dumped a few inches of snow on Vermont, then moved on to become the massive Newfoundland blizzard.  On Tuesday and Thursday, two weak storms blew past New England, which are helping energize Dennis into the monster it is.

We should be glad these storms didn't blow up anywhere near us, huh?