Matt's Weather Rapport is written by Vermont-based journalist and weather reporter Matt Sutkoski. This blog has a nationwide and worldwide focus, with particular interest in Vermont and the Northeast. Look to Matt's Weather Rapport for expert analysis of weather events, news, the latest on climate change science, fun stuff, and wild photos and videos of big weather events. Also check for my frequent quick weather updates on Twitter, @mattalltradesb
Lake Champlain waves crash onto Route 2 in Grand Isle in April, 2011 as
the lake was rising toward a record crest a few weeks later.
The first good thaw and rain of the spring came Thursday and Friday, which meant the first good rush of water into Lake Champlain since February.
This is the time of year when we'll begin to watch the water level of Lake Champlain creep upward.
As of Friday, the start of the melt season, the lake level was more than 3.5 feet below flood stage.
It might or might not get to the flood stage of 100 feet above sea level this spring. It depends on how much rain we get, and how fast the snow melts.
Flood stage on Lake Champlain is not a bad thing at all. The ecosystem of the lake needs its annual rise and fall to maintain itself. The floods help the natural cycle of wildlife. The lake doesn't reach flood stage every year, but even if it gets close, it helps with ecology of the lake.
Us humans, of course, don't like flooding, because we build things that can get wrecked too close to the shore. If the lake barely reaches flood stage - say it rises to between 100 and 100.5 feet above sea level, that really isn't a big deal. Which is good, because spring lake levels of just over 100 feet are pretty damn common.
At that level, some roads very close to the lake get flooded, the park at Perkins Pier in Burlington goes underwater and waves can cause some shoreline erosion around summer camps and such. But such flooding is just a routine part of spring.
As for this year, it doesn't look like we'll come anywhere close to those levels in 2011, unless there are unprecedented rains, even beyond the record downpours of April and May, 2011. In other words, no worries.
It's unclear as to whether we'll even make it to the minor flood stage of 100 feet above sea level. It could, because there's still plenty of snow in the mountains and an active jet stream means we have the potential for relatively frequent rains and snows - at least through the first half of April.
On the other hand, if the storms are small and the snow melt is gradual, the lake level won't rise all that much.
As we see the lake level slowly rise in April, take it this way - it's a sign spring is really taking hold. We still might need to wait a little while for full on spring. But on a snowy early April day when you notice the lake is a bit higher than it was a week earlier, you can still have confidence warmer days are ahead.
Some progress in getting rid of the snow in my St. Albans yard.
This first photo was taken a week ago Thursday -- on March 22.
It kind of feels like spring got here, sort of .
Temperatures got into the low 50s Thursday and we managed to get through a storm system that just had rain, not snow overnight. Much of the snow in the valleys has melted (though we definitely have more to go).
We turn the calendar over to April on Sunday. Ahhhh.. Spring. Right?
Um, no.
The weather pattern is now setting up so that we'll need our parkas and boots for awhile yet, and you can totally forget about spring blossoms anytime soon.
This state of affairs is true through most of the entire third to half of the nation, and it will probably continue into mid-month. I'm a bucket of spring cheer this morning, aren't I?
Already, the forces of winter's resurgence are gathering. Winter storm warningsare now in effect across much of North Dakota, a good chunk of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. It's really lovely in North Dakota, if for some reason you're planning a trip there.
In parts of that state, the temperatures were in the single digits this morning, it was windy with snow and blowing snow, and forecasts indicate North Dakota will remain continuously below freezing at least for a week, likely more.
It won't end up being as bad as that here in Vermont as we head into April, but it will be bad enough. I hope you didn't put away your snow shovel, for example.
...and this photo was taken in the same place, a week later - yesterday March 29.
Still a ways to go, though
There looks to be several outbreaks of Arctic air coming into the northern Plains over the next week or two, and each of them will spread east toward us.
Obviously, these Arctic blasts won't be as intense as they are in January, but you can see why it will stay so cold in the Northern Plains, with some nights getting below zero out there.
In Vermont, it will remain relatively mild today and Saturday. Nothing super warm, but definitely tolerable for this time of year. (Highs in the 40s to around 50 both days.)
The first in a series of cold fronts and chilly storms will come through Saturday night. Easter Sunday looks rather unpleasant, I'm afraid. There might be some snow showers around, especially early in the day. There will be a cold northwest wind and temperatures for most of us will remain at or below 40 degrees during the day.
A stronger system looks like it wants to come in Tuesday into Wednesday. At this point, it looks like it will be mostly rain here in Vermont, but it will be close. We could get surprised by some snow with this. I'll just cross my fingers and say rain for now.
On Wednesday, a cold front that really means business will sweep through, keeping us definitely cold.
Beyond that, it's hard to tease out the strength, position, temperature and moisture content of fast moving cold fronts and storms that will come through into mid-Apri.
It's spring, so there might be brief attempts by warm air to come in during that time before being slapped down by repeated cold fronts. It will snow during the first half of April here in Vermont, but right now it's impossible to tell if it will be a little or a lot.
Just don't plan on picking any daffodils for awhile. Remember, though. Spring WILL get here.
On Tuesday, about a quarter inch of rain fell on Amarillo, Texas.
Stuck weather patterns: Western Oklahoma has had almost no rain so far this year. Southeastern Oklahoma has nearly drowned in two feet of precipitation since January 1.
That's not a big deal, not a lot of rain, and for most of us, we'd consider it just routine, ho-hum showers.
But Amarillo celebrated this light rain storm in a big way. It was the first time there was any appreciable rain there in 163 days.
During that time, there were a few sprinkles, and one day in February managed to squeeze out a whopping 0.01 inches of rain -- barely enough to wet the pavement, if that.
The result has been drought, and dangerous rangeland fires that have swept right up to the edges and even into Amarillo subdivisions. The rain might temporarily alleviate the wildfire threat, but there's a long way to go before the drought is over.
The Texas and Oklahoma panhandles are normally pretty dry, but this is ridiculous. That quarter inch of rain so far this year in Amarillo is a drop in the bucket. They should have had 2.5 inches of rain just since January 1 - three months ago. A quarter inch of rain in almost half a year is terrible.
It's even worse in the Oklahoma panhandle, where extreme drought has dug in. The light rain that hit Amarillo missed the Oklahoma panhandle, so the dusty, crop-wilting mess goes on.
The eastern parts of Texas and Oklahoma are normally much wetter than the west, but the precpitation gradient between the two halfs of these states is ridiculous. Eastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas seem to constantly fall under flood alerts so far this year (as do adjoining states to the east.)
We just can't seem to shut off the water in the east or redirect it to the west.
Oklahoma is a wild example. So far this year, some towns in far western Oklahoma have had only a tenth of an inch of rain - basically nothing. Meanwhile, in southeastern parts of that state, up to 28 inches of rain have been reported since January 1.
This stuck weather pattern in the southern Plains doesn't look like it will end anytime soon. Over the next seven days, no rain is in the forecast for the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Over that same period, an additional one half to one inch of rain is in the forecast for the eastern parts of those states.
By the way, we up here in Vermont are heading into spring in good shape, water-wise. The slowly melting snow has a water content that's pretty high, and it's seeping into the ground as it erodes. Ground water amounts are above normal, and there are several periods of rain and snow in the forecast over the next week.
In fact, some minor flooding is possible later tonight and tomorrow in Vermont due to rain, warm temperatures and snow melt.
I get it that weather warnings and watches from the National Weather Service are serious, but all I could think of when I saw this map Tuesday evening was a dinosaur pooping on central Texxas. Yes, I'm a bad, bad person.
The home page features a color-coded map of the entire United States, and shows all the weather warnings, watches, alerts and statements in every county in the nation.
The map is color coded, so you can easily pick out the flood watches, winter weather alerts, severe thunderstorm statements, etc.
Last evening, a large area from northeast Texas to central Illinois was under a flood watch, depicted in dark green. Meanwhile, west-central Texas was under a severe thunderstorm watch, depicted in purple, with a couple of severe weather warnings and statements showing up in the middle of that purple in the colors orange and beige.
Serious stuff, yes. But all I could think of when I saw that map was a dinosaur pooping on west-central Texas.
You can see it in the photo in this post. And yes, I'm a bad, bad, childlike person who should feel ashamed.
What would have been Nor'easter #5 this month spins intensely well east of the New England coast yesterday. Had it been a few hundred miles further west, it would have caused more bigtime havoc. Beautiful satellite photo, though.
It seems I spent the entire month of March discussing nor'easters, since these storms were constantly either menancing us, hitting us, or we were digging out from them.
There was a grand total of four that hit at least parts of New England, so it was a busy month in that department.
The overall weather pattern has shifted only a bit in the past week. The shift has been enough to put us in somewhat warmer air. The snow is beginning to melt now.
Still, a fifth nor'easter of sorts did manage to get going over the past couple of days. I'm not sure if you can officially call it a nor'easter, since it didn't hit the coast or come particularly near it.
But otherwise, this fifth storm did pretty much what the previous four did: It emerged off the southeastern U.S. coast as a weak system, then blew up into a monster, huge storm. Only this time it was much further offshore than the ones that came before it.
You can see by the satellite picture of this storm that it was a beaut, way offshore.
Which is great, because this Nor'easter #5 is, or at least was, arguably the strongest of the bunch. It is generating sone big waves and dangerous surf up and down the East Coast, but nothing extreme. There are hazardous seas advisories for offshore waters of New England.
The good news is this Nor'easter #5, while moving erratically, It's now weakening and moving north, way off the coast. It looks like it will clip Newfoundland and harass Iceland, but leave us here in New England alone.
Of course, that doesn't mean another snowy nor'easter can't come along. We can get them in April, you know. And the weather pattern is potentially favorable for a nor'easter or even two sometime between April 4 and 12. I don't know whether one will develop, but it's worth watching.
Still looked like mid-winter in my St. Albans, Vermont yard yesterday, March 26, but a lot of this snow will disappear this week. Which is good, because there's a perennial bed under the snow in the foreground.
For skiers and riders in Vermont, March is a wildcard. In some years, like the torrid 2012, record warmth ends the season way too early for some enthuisasts.
Other years, like this one, are glory days for skiers and riders. The mountains pretty much had nice midwinter conditions almost all month, without the slush and puddles and melting snow like many Marches.
The snow was deep, the temperatures were comfortable, what was not to love? Us valley dwellers who aren't as into winter sports were complaining, but oh, well.
Those happy days of winter sports will start to diminish today, as the first significant spell of seasonable warm weather arrives in the North Country.
Don't worry, some ski areas will surely continue will into spring. A few likely past Mother's Day. But the thaw is commencing.
Yesterday and today, I'm betting the sap was, and is, flowing like gangbusters from the sugar maples. Good news for the maple industry. It ain't over yet, as the general weather pattern forecast favors temperatures that won't premature end the sugaring season.
Still, we've got several days of warm-ish temperatures and periods of rain to get through. In places like the Champlain Valley, most of the snow will disappear, so you'll have to put those cross-country skis away.
The first round of rain, tonight, will come down lightly. And actually change to snow for a time in the mountains. But accumulations will be light, and the warmth will resume tomorow.
Temperatures will range in the upper 30s and 40s in the mountains daily through Friday with 50s in many valleys. Another, somewhat bigger round of rain is likely to come in Thursday afternoon and night to wash more snow away. It won't be an extreme storm, but it also won't snow.
Thawing can mean flooding, but in this case, it doesn't look very worrisome. The warmth isn't extreme - it can get into the 70s this time of year, but this time it won't anywhere close to that. And the rain later this week won't be heavy. Most of us will get less than half an inch.
Rivers will rise around Vermont and the rest of the North, but any flooding looks like it will be minor.
As far as you skiers and riders go, we might be finished with powder days, but don't worry, your season is not over. There will be quite a lot of snow left over in the mountains after this thaw. And it looks at this point like the first ten days or so of April will generally be colder and wetter than normal in the Northeast
That almost certainly means additional snowfalls, especially in the mountains during the first half of April. And the remaining mountain snowpack during the opening days of April likely won't diminish much more.
Sharp cutoff between snow and no snow over Indiana after Saturday's narrow snowstorm. Photo via @reubenlidster on Twitter. https://twitter.com/reubenlidster
As expected, a very narrow band of snow set up across parts of the Midwest on Saturday.
Actually the band of snow extended from North Dakota southeast to Virginia and North Carolina.
The unusual aspect of the storm, aside from the oddity of getting a late March snowstorm in North Carolina, was the narrow strip of snow. It was only perhaps 50 to at most 100 miles wide.
Some places in the snow band got nailed with more than a foot of snow. Indianapolis, Indiana received 10.2 inches of snow, the second snowiest March day in that city's history.
But just a short drive southwest or northeast of these very snowy places on Saturday would bring you to bare or nearly bare ground.
That diagonal streak of what across the center of this satellite photo taken Sunday is snow cover from an odd, narrow storm on Saturday.
The first photo in this post shows an aerial view of Indiana, near Indianapolis. (Click on the photo to make it bigger and easier to see)
You can see the farmfields on the left are covered in snow, while the ones on the right are bare. Some individual farms have what appear to be several inches of snow on one side of the properties with nothing on the other side.
The second photo is a visibile satellie image showing the northwest to southeast snow streak across the middle of the photo. That streak is all snow cover (The white on the lower left hand corner of the satellite photo is cloud clover.
You don't often see snowstorms like this!
It's all melting in most of that region now as warmer air and rain moves in.
Unlike many avalanches, which very often quickly and fatally overwhelm people and everything in their paths, this avalanche was relatively slow, at least when it got to the parking lot of the ski area. That meant everybody was able to get out of the way, even if they couldn't save their cars.
It also meant people were able to take photos and videos of the event. Like I said, I complained about having to dig my truck out from heavy, wet snow. In this case, heavy wet snow just shoved the cars across the parking lot and down the hill.
And oh, by the way, the avalanche smashed the cars against each other, and I'm sure many, if not most of them were totaled. Fortunately, the avalanche, aside from not hurting anyone, also did not destroy any major buildings or roads, though you do see in the video a small building getting smushed.
Another video shows the avalanche blocking in some cars, but not actually moving or crushing them. Still, would you like to dig out that snow so you could actually drive away. I thought not. Here's that video:
In an attic in Cullman, Alabama this week. All those spots of light
you see are holes punched through the roof by hailstones at
least the size of baseballs a few days ago.
Earlier this week, severe weather hit parts of the Southeast, spewing damaging tornadoes and giant hail, especially in Alabama and Georgia.
We're just entering severe weather season, so we'll have plenty more outbreaks like this, especially as we head into April and May.
I mentioned in the last post a car dealership that suffered at least $4 million in damage when hail up to the size of softballs ravaged the area.
Here is surveillance video of the giant hail dinging all the cars and busting out the windows in the vehicles. I would have hated to be outdoors in that!
Next, we go to Russelville, Alabama, where a tornado definitely caused some damage. In the video, the people are in a car, approaching a rain-wrapped tornado.
Some tornadoes are encased in an area of downpours, so you don't really see a distinctive funnel. These rain-wrapped tornadoes are dangerous, because a lot of people see it and think it's just a nasty zone of downpours and wind. What they don't realize is that within all that is a dangerous tornado.
As you can see in the video, when the people in the car get close, they can see the tornado as it begins to peel off roofs and shred signs right in front of them. They understandably whip the car into reverse.
Kindergartener Carden Corts, 6, gets blown away and blows the rest of us away with his televised weather report.
For those of us wanting spring, we all need something to smile at.
I don't have full-on spring to give you.
However, we present Carden Corts, 6, who gave us a viral video of his own weather report. The video is at the bottom of this post and really is a great thing to watch.
At first, Carden forecasts bad weather, including a hurricane (Charlie Corts used a leaf blower to add to the effect.) Then there was a blizzard, then a tornado, but then, thank God, Carden gives us a forecast perfect for spring break - complete with dancing on the beach.
The viral video racked up 1.1 million hits in just over a day on YouTube. So, meet our viral weather sensation, Carden Corts:
Satellite views of each of the four nor'easters this month. Click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see.
For the first time in what seems like a month at least, this post won't contain a forecast for an upcoming nor'easter.
There's not one in our immediate future anyway. But, of course, this being an ultra-reluctant spring, I do have to talk about snow, winter storms, a post mortem of the last nor'easter, and winter cold.
It's not all bad, though. Just mostly bad.
The last departing nor'easter really clobbered Long Island, parts of the New York City metro areas, New Jersey, parts of eastern Pennsylvania and Maryland.
There were many, many reports of a foot or more of wet snow in this area. Parts of Long Island seemed to be the big winner, with 20.1 inches reported at Potchogue and 19.3 inches at Bay Shore, both on New York's Long Island.
New York City managed to avoid having its latest foot-deep snowstorm on record, with "only" 8.4 inches in Central Park.
Pretty view of Central Park, New York yesterday. Photo by Michael Brochstein/Getty Images
Reagan Airport, near Washington DC, picked up 3.7 inches of snow with this. That was more snow than the total that fell for the entire winter of 2017-18. So more than half their snow came in the spring.
Southern New England got lucky. Dry air feeding south from dry, cold high pressure over Quebec suppressed the snow, so other than in parts of Connecticut, that region got four or fewer inches of snow.
By the way, meteorologists in southern New England are taking heat for an incorrect forecast. Most had predicted much more snow than they got. The whiners are saying that meteorologists "always" get it wrong.
There's truth to that, but not in a way that insults meteorologists. As Crankyweatherguy (@crankywxguy) notes on Twitter,some people want absolute precision on what will happen in their back yard, and the science isn't there. Then they howl bitterly when the forecast doesn't come out quite right.
Every storm will "misbehave" in such a way where somebody will get less or more snow, rain, wind or whatever than forecast.
Bottom line: When you hear a forecast from a meteorologist, and they tell, you, say, we're going to get four to eight inches of snow, don't just accept we're going to get exactly six inches and complain when that doesn't come true.
The four to eight inches is a best estimate, and the intricacies of the atmosphere being what they are, you could end up with less or more than forecast. Use the predictions as a guide, not gosepl.
VERMONT SNOW (NOT MUCH)
That dry air from Quebec meant that it didn't really snow in Vermont, either. Instead of a couple inches in far southern Vermont, there were only flurries.
Of course, there's snow in the forecast, not just much.
Today, a bit of wrap around moisture from that offshore nor'easter, combined with a favorable wind flow, will probably squeeze out a few snow showers or flurries, mostly in the northern Green Mountains and the western slopes. It won't amount to much of anything.
Other little disturbances Friday, Saturday and Sunday morning will probably result in more snow showers in Vermont from time to time, but accumulations each time will be a dusting to an inch, with perhaps a tad more than that in the mountains. No big deal.
It'll stay colder than normal through Sunday, so what snow is on the ground, and the little bit we'll get over the next few days will continue to melt only very slowly. At least daytime highs in the valleys will make it into the low to mid 30s, so with a little sun getting through the clouds, the snow will continue to settle a bit.
There are definite signs of a brief warmup next week to interrupt a cold pattern that should continue well into April. But we will get that break Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 40s to perhaps near 50 degrees. That'll clean up some of the snow, at least in the valleys.
Unfortunately, it looks like we revert to chilly weather, with occasional wet snow and cold rain risks after next Wednesday. But by then it will be April, so it won't be as cold as March, only because the sun angle keeps going up and up.
WEIRD SNOWSTORM COMING TO U.S.
Forecast map shows a weird, narrow band of heavy snow will track from North Dakota southeastward to Virginia over the next few days.
The weather pattern, as I said, generally favors chill, and there's a weird snowstorm in the works for a narrow band in the middle of the country.
Usually snowstorms go west to east, or southwest to northeast as they travel. This one is diving down toward the southeast.
It'll start in North Dakota tomorrow, then head across parts of eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota, northern and eastern Iowa, north-central Illinois, central Indiana, southern Ohio then into the western Virginias.
Yeah, odd. And it's going to be a narrow band. Some areas will get eight to 12 inches of snow, while others just a couple dozen miles north or south of the band will get little.
And you know that discussion above about "wrong" forecasts? This one has wrong written all over it. If this snowband sets up just a little north or south of current predictions, or the temperature is a a wee bit warmer or colder, the forecast will be a total bust. This is really a meteorologist's headache.
Be prepared for whines about extra snow or not enough snow anywhere from Minnesota to Virginia in the next couple of days.
CALIFORNIA SCREAMING
Today will be the rainiest stretch this week in southern California, and will be the peak of the rough weather today. Some debris flows have been reported, but it hasn't been too bad - yet.
After today, things will dry out in California again, and little rain is forecast in southern California next week.
Here's one of a variety of forecasts for snow totals
with the latest nor'easter. Areas in pink could get
up to a foot of snow. Most forecasting indicates
this will mercifully be mostly a miss for Vermont.
To me, the sky over Vermont looks a bit ominous, which might surprise other people who are looking at that same sky.
Spoiler alert: Don't worry, I'm still thinking we won't get much snow out of this late season nor'easter in Vermont. Still, it's the type of sky that says "snow."
That's because the nor'easter - the fourth big one this month - is still lurking to our south. It's the type of sky that comes in the hours before a snowstorm:
A high, thin overcast that keeps gradually thickening, making the sun go dimmer, dimmer dimmer until it's pretty much gone.
Despite the signs from the sky, forecast guidance still tells us the nor'easter will be largely a miss for Vermont. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is going for a dusting to an inch south and east of a line roughly from St. Johnsbury to Rutland, with pretty much nothing north and west of that line.
The far southern Green Mountains could still pick up a couple, maybe three inches of un-needed snow from this tonight.
Still, that's better than the one to three feet of snow many of us got last week, right?
Somebody in Massachusetts is trying to coax spring
along as best as they can.
The accumulation will be hard to measure. This time of year, some solar radiation gets through the clouds during periods when the snow isn't coming down that hard, leading to some settling and melting. Then the accumulation picks up again when the snow starts coming down hard.
It still seems like it's a good possibility that the New York City metro area, parts of Long Island, much of New Jersey and pieces of eastern Pennsylvania could get 12 to 18 inches of snow out of this.
Washington DC which should be right into spring by now, is expecting four to eight inches of heavy, wet snow.
This sign pretty much sums up the mood
with repeated nor'easters and snowstorms
hitting much of the East
All this wet, heavy snow in populated areas is causing a rising number of power failures, which will only get worse as the day wears on. Repair crews were still trying to fix the mess left over by the previous three nor'easters when this one hits.
As I noted yesterday, coastlines in New Jersey, New York, especially including Long Island are going to be battered with this. High tides, storm surge flooding, high winds and battering waves will add to the damage that has piled up all this month.
Yeah, it's all pretty depressing if you ask me.
To make things more dreary for you, it's still not looking like any kind of full-on spring weather is coming any time soon.
Back here in Vermont, snow showers will probably add an occasional dusting of snow to some areas, especially the north and mountains tomorrow, and possibly again on Saturday. At this point, though, I'm not seeing any blockbuster snowstorms in our near future, so we can hang onto that.
North winds will increase here in Vermont later today and especially tomorrow because of our proximity to the offshore nor'easter. That will add a windchill and a bite to the air. More clouds over the next few days will limit melting of the existing snowpack.
Still, there's glimmers of minor hope. Daytime highs in the valleys of Vermont should get barely above freezing, or least near 32 degrees each day through Sunday, which will melt the snow in tiny little increments, at least.
And it will turn somewhat warmer, but not torrid early next week. But the more seasonable temperatures next week should accelerate the gradual erosion of our unwanted spring snowpack. (And yes, not everybody considers it unwanted. I know there are plenty of winter sports fans out there, so be happy.)
It's not just us who are suffering under the weather. A strong blast of wet air is hitting central and southern California, where flash flooding is a risk through Thursday.In areas where there were big wildfires last year, very dangerous debris flows are possible, since vegetation that would hold soil in place has burned away.
There was already one destructive debris flow that killed nearly two dozen people in early January. California risks a repeat this week. As a precaution, up to30,000 people have been asked to evacuatefrom their homes during this storm.
Here's the Weather Channel's take on how much snow will come out of this latest nor'easter
I knew it, I knew it, I knew it!
This past Saturday, when most of the weather forecasters were saying the nor'easter for this week would mostly be a miss, I said in this here blog thingy that I suspected that was wrong, that it would hit.
Not to gloat, but I was right. Winter storm warnings extend from North Carolina to New England today, and a lot of people are going to get a lot of snow, once again.
The good news, if you're not a snow lover this time of year and you live in Vermont, is it still looks like you won't get much snow out of this one. In fact, northern Vermont at this point looks like it will get none. I hope. More on that in a minute.
I'll also get to those awful tornadoes in the south in a bit, too. There were some weird aspects to some of those. Videos of the severe weather also at the bottom of the post.
Anyway, the forecast trends starting Saturday and continuing right into today track the nor'easter closer to the coast. It'll still go offshore, but will be close enough to give much of the eastern United States a pasting.
Most of the snow will come down Wednesday, and be accompanied by strong winds, producing near blizzard conditions in some spots on the first full day of spring. (The spring Equinox was at 12:15 p.m today, EDT)
As always, results may vary. This time of year, any East Coast snowstorm comes with marginal temperatures. A couple degrees warmer, and the snow totals would go down as it would mix with rain. A little colder, and the snow would get a little fluffier, increasing the totals.
There's little chance the snow will get much fluffier. It will be wet and heavy. Combined with the wind, there will once again be widespread power failures, just as there were in the last three nor'easters.
With all the damage over the past month, I think utility rates will rise across much of the East. Somebody is going to have to pay for all that repeated damage to the electric grid.
Once again, battered coastlines are going to be battered anew, with beach-eroding waves and more flooding along shorelines made much more vulnerable by the last three nor'easters. Winds were already increasing dramatically along parts of the Mid-Atlantic coast today and that should spread northward into Wednesday.
VERMONT IMPACTS
At this point, it still looks like it won't be too bad up here in the Green Mountain State. The far southern Green Mountains, which have gotten as much as six feet of new snow this month, are in for a little more.
This time, it looks like that region will be measuring the snow in inches, not feet. I still looks like they'll get six inches or less of snow in far southern Vermont, but that will have to be monitored.
So far, it looks like any light snow won't get any further north than Rutland and White River Junction on Wednesday and Wednesday night, but we'll of course have to continue monitoring the path of the storm. We don't want it to come further north, do we?
The Arctic air mass over us is slowly moderating, and each day since Saturday has been getting slightly warmer, though staying way chillier than average. At least a tiny bit of snow has melted in sunny corners.
Today, with lighter winds and clouds from the storm not really getting too strongly into Vermont, readings might go briefly above freezing this afternoon. Still cold for this time of year, but we'll take anything.
That nor'easter passing by will increase the north winds, throw a few clouds our way and slow the pace at which the air warms up over us during the second half of the week. So it will stay wintry. If any afternoon temperatures get above freezing between Thursday and Saturday, it will be just barely.
Winter is hanging on.
SOUTHERN TORNADOES
Meteorologists knew since Saturday at least that parts of the Southeast were at risk for severe storms and tornadoes by yesterday, and sure enough, things got bad very fast.
A reporter with the Cullman, Alabama Tribune holds one of the giant hailstones that fell near his house last night.
There wereat least 12 reports of tornadoes, pretty much all in northern Alabama, not far from the borders of Tennessee and Georgia.
One thing odd about this tornado outbreak, at least in my opinion, is how supercells creating the tornadoes, immense hail and damaging winds followed each other.
Usually, when a town gets hit by a tornado, emergency responders can get to the scene relatively safely, despite continuing lightning, flooding, heavy rain and sometimes hail.
Last night, one tornado hit the town of Jacksonville, Alabama, and first responders had to be warned that a second tornado (later confirmed) was hot on its heels. Even after that, a third circulation came into town, but I don't know yet whether that one touched down into a tornado.
At least one of those tornadoes hit Jacksonville State University, but thankfully the school was on spring break. There weren't that many students in the way to get hurt by the twister.
The supercell storms marched into Georgia later last night, and National Weather Service meteorologists there are investigating whether any of the damage around metro Atlanta and elsewhere in northwest Georgia was caused by tornadoes.
The storms also dumped huge hailstones on parts of Alabama. In Cullman, Alabama, hail as big as softballs caused widespread damage. One large car dealership alone suffered perhaps $4 million or more in damage. In some parts of town, hail was big enough to crash through roofs.
Here's a news video of hail damage at a Cullman, Alabama car dealership:
Here's what it was like inside the Cullman, Alabama Walmart during the hail. It was loud, and you can see pieces of the ceiling coming down during the onslaught:
Not confirmed as of this writing, but the damage in this video in Campbellton, Georgia had to have been caused by a tornado last night:
A snow drift in New Brunswick, Canada last week. Via
Ashley Ricard, Facebook
When I'm discouraged by weather I don't like, I perversely find places where conditions are even worse, just to console myself.
One place I found was Bathurst, New Brunswick, Canada. As you know, I've been whining about the deep mid-March snowcover from the recent nor'easters and the current January-like chill.
New Brunswick has also been dealing with the same nor'easters, and the snow drifts are worse, much worse than around here.
A woman named Ashley Ricard has been posting photos of her snow-buried neighborhood, and houses are nearly buried. A couple of her photos are in this post.
A New Brunswick, Canada house buried in snow. Via
Gail Harding/CBC
Like us here in Vermont, it's cold in New Brunswick, so most of the snow won't go anytime soon.
There have been reports of a couple buildings collapsing under the weight of the snow, and travel is still difficult in some spots in southeastern Canada because of the snow.
Speaking of nor'easters, we're still watching one for mid to late week. Current forecasts are still insisting the next one will have little or no impact on Vermont, but I'm still not counting it out.
The beginnings of this next storm swept across Texas Sunday, causing a couple of tornadoes, strong winds and numerous reports of giant hail, some the size of baseballs. (Once you start getting into March, storm systems are increasingly likely to bring severe weather to parts of the nation.)
The storm is still expected to head off the North Carolina coast. Some computer models continue to nudge the projected path of this next nor'easter a little closer to the coast. But it still - at this point at least - looks like it will pass relatively far off the New England coast Wednesday and Thursday.
Southeastern New England still looks like it will get a little snow and wind from this. It looks like the New York City area, New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland, including the Washington DC area, look to be in play for some snow out of this as well.
I expect it will throw some clouds back over Vermont. If the projected path holds, the Green Mountain State will get little if any snow out of this. If the storm track ends up being another 100 miles to the northwest than current projections, then it's -- ugh.
Meanwhile, it remains frigid. Widespread below zero temperatures were reported across the North Country this morning, though readings were a few degrees warmer than Sunday morning.
Still, I also always like to look for signs of hope during weather I don't like. The March sun angle is high, and temperature, while remaining well below normal, will gradually creep up a bit each day through Wednesday.
I noticed yesterday when I was in Rutland, Vermont, where the snow cover is thinner than it is up here in St. Albans, the sun was able to open up a few bare patches on steep south and west facing slopes. Not a pretty look, but a sign that the snow will want to try to melt. Some day, at least.
Dawn breaks on a frigid Vermont March morning today, as this webcam view from Nashville, Vermont depicts. Temperatures were 0 to 20 below across the region this morning.
Brrr!
As expected, this Sunday morning was very January-like, and even colder than some forecasts indicated.
Blame Arctic air, clear skies, and a deep snowpack.
There usually isn't this much deep snow in northern New England this time of year, at least in the valleys. Deep, fresh snowcover tends to make cold snaps worse when dry, cold Arctic air arrives from Canada.
That was certainly the case this morning. Just before dawn, it was 21 below in Saranac Lake, New York and Whitefield, New Hampshire. A 20 below reading was reported from Island Pond, Vermont. Montgomery, Vermont was at 16 below.
These temperatures might have gone down a degree or two from these frigid levels before the sun came up. I don't have the final stats yet.
At last report even "tropical" Burlington Vermont was down to 1 below, the first time it's gotten that cold since February 3.
The forecast hasn't changed any since last night, so if you like the Arctic cold, you'll love the forecast.
All these temperatures are approaching record lows, most of them on this date set in 1956. March, 1956 was another time we had three snowy March nor'easters.
Temperatures will only modify very slightly today and Monday. We might actually get to a little above 20 degrees this afternoon and the mid 20s Monday -- still far, far colder than normal this time of year.
Tonight's lows will be within a few degrees of zero again, with cold mountain hollows getting well below zero.
At least the wind won't be as bad as Saturday. During the morning and early afternoon, winds gusted as high as 45 mph in Burlington, and many other locations around the North Country. This, while temperatures were in the teens, so wind chills were below zero. The wind did manage to die down somewhat in the mid to late afternoon, which I suppose helped a bit.
I see no signs of any springlike weather for more than a week. Ugh.
As I expected, forecast models are starting to nudge that mid to late week nor'easter a bit closer to the coast. So far, the trend isn't bringing it close enough to give Vermont any snow, but we'll still have to keep an eye on it. As it stands now, coastal New England could get a bit of snow and gusty winds and maybe some more coastal flooding out of it.
A big snowbank on the edge of my St. Albans, Vermont
driveway this morning. Sky looks nice, but temperatures
were only in the upper teens, with winds gusting to 30 mph or so.
I've said this before, but I hope you like all the snow that's on the ground in Vermont and other parts of the Northeast and southeastern Canada.
It's going to stick around for awhile.
Here in Vermont, despite all the snow, you might be surprised to learn that March, up until yesterday at least, was warm.
At Burlington, Vermont, each of the first 15 days of the month were warmer than normal, and the first half of March was more than five degrees balmier than average.
Part of the reason was all the clouds. Overcast tends to keep nights warmer. All those slow moving storms gave us lots of cloudy weather. The result was nights that were much warmer than average. Daytimes were generally only slightly warmer than average,
Friday broke a remarkable streak of 30 consecutive days of warmer than normal temperatures in Burlington. Yeah, it's been relatively toasty since mid-February. It's quite rare to have that many days in a row above normal without a break.
Of course, things do tend to even out. So I guess you have to expect some cold weather. Friday marked the start of what will be a long streak of colder than normal days. I hope it doesn't last 30 days, because that would take us into mid-April, which would be depressing.
I do know this just-starting cold streak will last at least a week, likely more, as we're locked into a cold northwest flow of air from way up in northern Canada.
The worst of the cold will come today through Monday. Another Arctic cold front is coming through this Saturday morning. It will bring us some snow showers, but accumulations will be mercifully light. Some places won't get any snow flurries at all. Lucky souls.
But many of us have already reached our high temperature for the day or close to it. (It was 24 degrees at 7 a.m. Saturday in Burlington.) Temperatures will remain steady or even slowly fall today. There might be a very slight uptick in temperatures early this afternoon as the sun comes out, but you won't notice it.
That's because winds from the northwest will gust in many places to over 30 mph, so wind chills will be at or below zero at times.
Tonight in Vermont, temperatures will rocket downward, and be between five below in the colder spots to five above in the "warmer" valleys. It would get even colder, but the wind will keep blowing, so the air will stay mixed. Of course, that adds a wind chill.
Sunday, the sun will be out much of the time (yay!) but it will be like January. Some of us won't even make it past 20 degrees in the afternoon, and that northwest wind will continue to crank Sunday night will be just as cold as tonight will be.
This is all a good 10 to 20 degrees colder than normal. For reference, normal highs this time of year are in the low 40s, with overnight lows typically around the mid-20s.
NOR'EASTER:
This forecast map for next Thursday shows
an intense nor'easter passing a little too
far east of Vermont to have much of an
effect, other than wind. Coastal areas may
see some snow. This forecast is subject to
change, and it's still possible this thing
could hit us. Just not likely at the moment.
That word scares you, doesn't it? Nor'easter. Shudder. Still, I have to give an update.
The forecast consensus at the moment is that nor'easter we're watching for next week will pass too far south and east of us here in Vermont to have much of an effect.
However, and this is a big however: Don't count this storm out yet. Some computer models do still bring it close enough to give us a decent snowfall.
And this next part is decidedly un-sciency:
My experience with March cold waves, like the kind we're embarking on now, tend to end with snowstorms. Not always, but often. These storms often come from nor'easter that forecasters initially tell us will miss, but then they don't.
I might change my mind, but at this point I give the nor'easter a 40 percent chance of hitting us Wednesday or Thursday.
Even if the storm does miss us, it will keep us in a cold northerly flow. Winds will pick up because of the offshore nor'easter around Thursday. By then, though, temperatures will have warmed up a bit. Still below normal, but better than this weekend.
If you don't like all this snow on the ground, you can take a tiny, tiny bit of heart in this: Despite the bitter cold, you might see a little snow melt in some corners of your property.
The March sun angle is high and the days are longer. Even with temperatures well below freezing, the sun will erode some of the tall snowbanks, and melt a bit of the snow in sunny, protecting corners, like the south side of your house, under pine trees and on some south and west facing slopes.
At least seven feet of snow has come down in Woodford,
Vermont, in the southern Green Mountains this month.
It seems like a paradox: Winters in Vermont have been generally trending warmer in recent decades.
Lately, they've also been getting snowier.
As you well know, many of us are buried in snow today in the lead up to the official start of spring next week.
So far this March, Burlington, Vermont has had 30.1 inches of snow. Even if not so much as one more flake falls this month (ha!) it'll still be the sixth snowiest March on record. Also, if it doesn't snow for the rest of March, April and May, this winter's snowfall will be above average.
Since 2001, 14 of the 18 winters had snowfall above that average. (Including the current winter, since we're already up to 84.5 inches for the season.)
It's hard to say whether climate change has anything to do with this. Storms are wetter in a warmer world. So if it's below freezing locally, any given storm could be wetter, which would boost the snowfall totals.
However, it could just as well be some sort of natural cycle. For instance, during the 13 winters from 1966 to 1979, only one winter's snowfall was below the average, and then, just barely.
Three of Burlington's snowiest winters have been since 2000, and another three of the snowiest winters were during that 1960s and 1970s snowy period.
The difference between the 1960s and 1970s and now is that the earlier snowy winters were also generally cold. Most, but not all of the snowy winters in the 2000s have been near normal or warmer than normal, temperature wise.
THE BIG PICTURE
One study that made news this week concluded that big spikes in winter temperatures around the Arctic since 1990 correlate with big winter storms in the northeastern United States.
I usually have a nice sunset view in the evening out my
St. Albans, Vermont windows, but accumulated snow
and snow that slid off the roof ends that idea for now
"Their study, published in the journal Nature Communications, links the increased frequency of extreme winter storms with the rapid and persistent warming of the Arctic since around 1990. When temperatures over the Arctic spike, especially high in the atmosphere, extreme winter weather is two to four times more likely in Boston and New York, while the U.S. tends to see warmer and drier conditions, they conclude."
This study doesn't prove that Arctic warmth is causing these northeastern winter storms, but suggests a possible link. Inside Climate News quotes Rutgers University climate researcher Jennifer Francis as saying this study reinforces previous studies that a declining temperature contrast between a fast-warming Arctic and somewhat slower warming mid-latititudes makes the jet stream more wavy.
A more erratic jet stream like this is more likely to cause extreme weather.
Climate change skeptics, like Joe Bastardi, on the other hand, say there have been weather patterns like this before. And he's absolutely right. March, 1962, for instance, featured Arctic warming and lots of winter storms in the northeastern United States.
However, the question is, are these warm spells in the Arctic becoming more frequent? The science suggests they are. Which would tend to indicate that we might have other very snowy winters in our Vermont future.
Short term, it looks like the wintry weather is here to stay in Vermont for awhile yet. Not much new snow will fall between now and Monday, with just scattered snow showers and possible brief squalls now and again as Arctic boundaries and disturbances pass through.
However, everybody is still watching out for the possibility of another snowy nor'easter during the middle of next week. It's still way too soon to determine whether that one will hit us, or mercifully slide out to sea too far south to give us more piles of snow to shovel.
I took this photo at about 9 a.m. this morning, March 15. 2018 in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. Lots of snow to shovel!
As you might have seen, I really couldn't post a decent post in this here weather blog thingy this morning because I had too much snow to shovel.
I spent four and a half hours out there shoveling today. I'm not nearly done, but I got some done. We can at least now easily get in and out of the driveway.
LOTS OF SNOW
After 18.5 inches of new snow, mostly rather wet and heavy during the latest storm here at my place in St. Albans, Vermont, it was a relief to only get flurries today.
It's relatively chilly out, but at least the sun struggling to get through the clouds is trying to melt the snow off my truck, off the pavement, etc.
This photo looks almost identical to the above photo, but I took it around 9 a.m. on March 15, 2017 - exactly one year ago. Then, we were getting over the "Pi Day" Blizzard. Today, in 2018, we're getting over another big March snowfall.
A little snow is continuing today and into this evening along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, so there might be a little more accumulation in some spots. But not much.
Not that we need more accumulation. The 18.5 inches of snow I got since early Tuesday morning here in St. Albans is impressive, but not the most reported in Vermont. Not even close. There's some big snow totals out there out of this one.
The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont, reports storm totals so far of 30 inches in Eden, Stowe, and Westfield, Vermont. Graniteville, Vermont, was close with 29.5 inches.
The deep, heavy snow extended into the Adirondacks. Saranac, New York reported 26 inches of new snow, and Ausable Forks was close behind at 25.7 inches.
There is so much snow in the mountains that the NWS in South Burlington, Vermont is still warning people to be careful with backcountry skiing and riding in the Green Mountains and Adirondacks. There's actually a risk of avalanches over the next several days in these regions.
SPRING FLOODING?
I speculated the other day as to whether the NWS in South Burlington would adjust their spring flood outlook given how much snow we've gotten lately.
The flooding Lamoille River near Cambridge, Vermont cascades through trees during severe spring flooding in April, 2011. It's possible - but not definite - that recent deep snowstorms and above normal soil moisture could bring damaging spring floods to the Green Mountain State this year.
The short answer is: Yep, they definitely changed the spring flood outlook and the news is worse.
A couple weeks ago, the NWS was saying the spring flood outlook this year was near to a little below normal.
At that point, ground water content and river flows were above normal, but there was definitely a below normal snow cover, with bare ground in the valleys.
The lack of snow foretold a lack of flooding.
As you might have guessed, all this new, deep snow cover has changed dramatically. The ground water and river flows are still above normal, but now the snow cover is near to above normal, too. There's quite a bit of water locked in this snowpack, which will eventually melt. Even in the lower elevations, there's two to five inches of rainwater locked in the snowpack.
The March sun angle is higher, so you will see over the next several days a tiny bit of melting, especially in low elevations, of some snowbanks and sunny hillsides. But the melting will be minimal, given forecasts of below normal temperatures for the next week or so.
Worse, yet another nor'easter is possible next week. If it comes to fruition, there would be a lot more snow added to the snowpack.
That means additions to the snowpack, and delayed spring melting. The spring flooding could get nasty if we get into April and the weather suddenly turns warmer than normal and the weather pattern remains active.
Heavy rainstorms and warm temperatures could defintely bring some damaging spring flooding to Vermont. On the other hand, we've been through this drill before. In 2001, late March snowcover was way, way above normal. They were guaranteeing flooding.
But the melt was gradual, and April precipitation was below normal. Flooding that year was relatively minor.
Weather dog Jackson, our cocker spaniel, is face flecked with snow from playing outside today, looks lost amid our giant snowbanks in our St. Albans, Vermont driveway today.
IMMEDIATE FORECAST: HOPE YOU LIKE WINTER
If you like winter, the forecast is great for you. Despite the incessant snow over the past couple of weeks, temperatures have actually been running above normal for the first half of March.
That is about to change.
First of all, a little more snow is in the forecast for tonight. Most of it will be in the northern and central Green Mountains where another one to three inches could fall. It'll probably be closer to a dusting in the valleys.
Highs were in the seasonable 30s again today, but will only reach the 20s Friday afternoon. Wind gusts as high as 30 mph will bring a nasty wind chill, which will remind you of January.
It gets a bit worse, actually, on Saturday. An Arctic cold front looks like it wants to come through, setting off some snow showers and maybe some snow squalls. Accumulations for most of us will probably be only a dusting. However a few places bullseyed by the squalls could pick up a quick inch or two.
With the cold front, temperatures Saturday afternoon will only get into the upper teens to mid 20s. The wind gusts might be even stronger than on Friday, maybe reaching 35 mph.
Weather dog Tonks inspects my shoveling job today in our St. Albans, Vermont driveway, and looks warily at the snow about to slide off our roof, which would necessitate additional shoveling. Even though I'm exhausted already.
Saturday night, get ready for temperatures colder than we've seen since early February. Relatively clear skies and deep snow cover and Arctic air will bring the "warmer" valleys of Vermont down to around 5 degrees by Sunday morning.
The colder valleys could end up as low as ten below by dawn Sunday.
Temperatures will stay January-like at least through Tuesday.
After that: Another nor'easter?
It's certainly possible. Computer forecasting models are all over the place for Tuesday through Thursday, but it's certainly possible we could get another nor'easter with heavy snow.
It's also possible this could be a total whiff, with nothing at all. We'll have to keep looking at the forecasts to see what will become of this.
