Here We Go Again: Distant Wildfire Smoke Hazing Up Our Skies

Smoke from wildfires in Alberta gave a brassy hue to
the evening skies over St. Albans, Vermont Thursday. 

Did it seem hazy to you here in Vermont yesterday afternoon?

You were on to something. Smoke from wildfires in Alberta was high overhead, introducing yet another summer in which clear blue skies are marred by smoke.

To be fair, Thursday wouldn't have been a pure bluebird sky day anyway. High and mid level clouds were coming in ahead of a cold front that was to our north and a storm system scooting by to our south.

But smoky haze gave a brassy hue to the atmosphere, especially yesterday evening. With a northwest flow aloft occasionally coming through over the next week, I wouldn't be surprised if we have other hazy days.

It still seems sort of hazy out there this morning behind that cold front.

It's not just us. Those Alberta fires are pushing smoke into much of the United States. Smoky skies have affected much of the northern Plains states  and southern Canadian prairies as well.

The smoky skies have been occasionally spreading to far-flung places like Vancouver, Minneapolis, Toronto, Detroit and Kansas City.  Smoke has also been spreading north to the Arctic Circle and into northeastern Alaska. There's a great smoke map that allows you to track the smoke by hitting this hyperlink. 

The fires up in Alberta are huge and out of control. At least 10,000 people in the remote region have been evacuated, and there's little sign that they fires will be under control any time soon.

Wildfires do seem to be on the increase and the season is lasting longer, due in large part to climate change. Unfortunately, we've had to get used to hazy, smokey skies in recent years as large fires repeated pump smoke into the atmosphere.

Springtime wildfires in the North are increasing because the snow melts earlier in the season, things dry out faster so fires can start. There have also been substantial wildfires in Siberia this spring.

While the smoke is rarely dense enough in Vermont to cause health problems, any level of particulate pollution in the atmosphere isn't good for us.

Mostly, it's just a let down when you want a brilliant blue sky and you get a sickly haze. It's not that we won't have bluebird days this summer or in future summers. It's just that we'll have to get used to experiencing fewer of them.

On the bright side, I suppose, the wildfire smoke can create more colorful and interesting sunrises and sunsets. You always have to find the positive somewhere, right?

Tornado Onslaught Was One Of The Busiest Of The Decade

As you can see in this map, lots of tornado reports have
come in this month across the country. While most of them
have been in the southern and central Plains and Midwest,
some have been reported anywhere between California
and New Jersey. The map shows here in Vermont,
we've continued our long tornado-free streak. The
last Vermont tornado was in 2014.

Several days ago, I say that the number of tornadoes hitting the United States was definitely higher than normal, but not too, too far out of the ordinary.

But the tornadoes kept hitting. And hitting. Now, we're up to more than 470 preliminary reports of tornadoes in the past 30 days. There  have been only four other occasions in the past 15 years or so with that many tornadoes in such a short period of time. Those were in 2003, 2004, 2008 and 2011.

During May, the nation is typically, on average, hit by about 275 tornadoes. 

We're still not yet in record territory for the number of tornadoes within just a few weeks, but it's been busy, busy, busy.

Seven people have died in tornadoes over the past week, which is a terrible toll. But given the number of tornadoes, that number of casualties is strikingly low.  It's a testiment to great warnings by the National Weather Service and local media meteorologists. And it's a sign that people headed warnings and fled to basements, closets and storm shelters as the tornadoes approached.

Another good thing. Most of the tornadoes were relatively weak to moderately strong, not EF4s or EF5s, which are the strongest and most dangerous. Those higher end tornadoes generally cause the most deaths, because often, hiding in a closet or basement isn't good enough to survive the real biggies.

Finally, we're about to catch a break. The stalled weather pattern that has kept a clash of hot air over the Southeast, chilly air in the western United States and relentless storminess in the middle is breaking down.

This Linwood, Kansas house was wrecked by one of 475 or so tornadoes
that have struck the nation this month. Photo by Chris Neal of
the Topeka Capital-Journal

A more gentle, somewhat west to east air flow will come across the nation over the next several days. Which means, going forward into next week, there might be a few severe storms and even tornadoes here and there, not many will form. No big new outbreaks are in the offing.

Serious flooding remains a big problem, though, even as all that rain tapers off. I'm headed to South Dakota Friday, and I notice so many rivers there are in flood stage, even major flood stage. The water will be receding (I hope!) while I am there, as mostly dry weather is forecast next week.

Elsewhere, it's worse. Parts of Missouri are running a whopping 18 inches above normal for rainfall this month, says the National Weather Service in Kansas City. Some places in the Corn Belt have received an incredible 30 inches of rain in the past month. During that time, four or five inches would have been normal.

As you can imagine, the soggy, flooded fields means spring crop planting is way behind schedule. Less than 60 percent of the anticipated Midwest corn crop has been planted. More than 90 percent of the seeds should have been in the ground by now, says the USDA.

While rainfall will be less intense over the coming week in the hardest hit flood zones, there will still be bouts of unneeded rain that could dump a couple more inches of water in places like Missouri and Kansas.

The bottom line: The weather pattern has finally gotten a little friendlier, but the damage is done. And who knows whether this is a real long lasting break, or just a brief respite from the destructive weather in the middle of the nation?

TV Meterologist Gloriously Goes After Whiners Complaining About "Bachelorette" Interruption

Fox 45 meteorologist Jamie Simpson goes off on viewers
who complained his tornado warnings interrupted "The
Bachelorette." I'm so glad he did this. 

Large, dangerous tornadoes were descending on the Dayton, Ohio metro area two nights ago. The National Weather Service issued tornado warnings.

Television stations interrupted regular programming to put their meteorologists on the air to tell everybody where the tornadoes were, what to do, and generally keep the public well informed.

The effort worked. Despite the tornadoes destroying dozens of occupied houses, only one death in the region was reported. That's because the National Weather Service and those television meteorologists saved lives by providing excellent warnings.

Was everybody happy with this effort? Of course not! Fox45 in Dayton interrupted an episode of "The Bachelorette" so that meteorologist Jamie Simpson could go on air with live tornado coverage.

This enraged fans of "The Bachelorette" who are convinced that the goings on in this "reality" drama is much more important than knowing whether a large tornado was heading toward their houses.

This outrage ended up outraging Simpson, who went on a glorious tirade against these put upon fans of "The Bachelorette."  The great video is at the bottom of this post.

"No, we're not going back to the show, folks. This is a dangerous situation, OK? Think about if this was your neighborhood. I'm sick and tired of people complaining about this. Our job here is to keep people safe and that is what we're going to do," an exasperated Simpson said on air.

He was just getting started. He went on: "Some of you complained that this is all about my ego......Stop. It's not. I'm done with you people. I really am, this is pathetic."

Complaints about television stations interrupting regular programming for severe weather alerts happen all the time and they're showing no sign of diminishing.

Remember, these are broadcast stations. They can't just air a tornado warning in one county, and continue on with airing "The Bachelorette" in some other county that doesn't happen to be under a weather warning.

People really do need to chill. I get it that it's frustrating that I might be sitting in northwestern Vermont watching TV with clear skies outdoors and Tom Messner from WPTZ is squawking about severe thunderstorms in New Hampshire.

Really, though, screw my frustration and anybody else's. What Messner and all the rest of the television meteorologists are doing is likely saving lives. As Simpson in Dayton said, think about the people under the dangerous weather threat.

I'd much rather not know who won this season's "The Voice" if it means some television meteorologist somewhere warned a family to get into their basement just in time to save their lives before the tornado hit.

Meteorologists and their weather warnings are really, truly must-watch TV. Your life might depend upon it.

Here's the video from Dayton:

Dayton, Ohio Latest City To Be Blasted By A Tornado

UPDATE 3:30 PM TUESDAY

Areas in the red circles are at particular risk of tornadoes
and severe thunderstorms today. 

There is now one confirmed death in Ohio from yesterday and last night's tornado outbreak. There are also numerous injuries.

As noted in the previous discussion, though, that's a remarkably low toll considering the strength and long tracks o the tornadoes, and the fact they occurred mostly at night in Ohio.

Nighttime tornadoes are dangerous because people are less likely to be aware of warnings, and they don't see the bad weather coming.

Some of the tornadoes were indeed quite strong. At least two of the tornadoes in the suburbs of Dayton were catagorized as EF-3, with winds of at least 140 mph.

I've added an ABC news report of the tornadoes to the bottom of this post. It gives you a good sense of how terrifying and devastating this was.

Today is proving to be a dangerous day as well. A string of tornado and severe thunderstorm watches extends from Kansas to Pennsylvania and New Jersey. 

As of 3:45 p.m., at least three tornado warnings - meaning a tornado has been spotted or radar indicates a tornado - were up in Pennsylvania and there will surely be more.

The Kansas City, Missouri, area is bracing for possibly strong tornadoes later today. Torrential rains this afternoon are worsening flooding in Missouri, Iowa, Kansas and Oklahoma.

For those of us in Vermont who are wondering, we are far removed from any threat of severe storms. We are on the cold side of the storm, so we're just experiencing another cold, drenching rain. Burlington, Vermont had picked up another 0.38 inches of rain as of 3 p.m., contributing to what is turning into a very wet, but not record wet May.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Details are emerging this morning of widespread damage around Dayton, Ohio after a large tornado stayed on the ground, apparently for miles through a populated area in and around Dayton, Ohio.

Last night's Dayton disaster was part of one of the largest tornado outbreaks of the year so far in 2019. There were 60 preliminary reports of tornadoes Monday in an area stretching from Colorado to Ohio.

Hard to see at night but you can
make out the tornado hitting
the Dayton, Ohio area
last night in this photo

So far, there are miraculously no reports of deaths, which is probably because the large and dangerous tornado was well-warned by the National Weather Service and local media outlets.

However,  early indications are that many homes, apartments and businesses were destroyed in Ohio.  About 5 million people in the state had no electricity.  Snowplows were called out to remove tornado debris blocking Interstate 75 around Dayton.

The Dayton tornado was part of a series of storms in the past week that produced destructive tornadoes after dark.  They're especially dangerous at night, because people might be in bed sleeping and not hear tornado warnings.

Nightime tornados also caused two deaths and a lot of damage in El Reno, Oklahoma two days ago, and tons of damage in Jefferson City, Missouri last week.

As an aside, the El Reno tornado was weird because it had a very  narrow path for a tornado of that strength. It was an EF3, which means it had winds of between 136 to 165 mph, but its width was only about 75 yards wide.

That might be a record for the narrowest strong tornado on record. Ironically, El Reno, Oklahoma is where the nation's widest tornado on record hit. That tornado in 2013 was 2.6 miles wide.

The tornado threat continues today, with twisters a fairly good bet in parts of Kansas, Missouri and Iowa, with maybe a couple more tornadoes in Pennsylvania. There might be a few more tornadoes tomorrow, especially around eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.

The weather pattern that has brought numerous tornadoes to the middle of the nation is expected to settle down later this week. Although there might be pockets of severe weather after midweek, they won't be as extensive and persistent as they have in recent days.

.....But Those Floods Are Anything BUT Normal

This aerial view shows many homes already flooded in Oklahoma
by the Arkansas River. Photo via Twitter from the Tulsa World newspaper.

Yesterday, I remarked upon our nation's busy tornado year. I said that as tragic as it has been, it's not that far from what is regarded as "normal," at least so far.

What's really, really abnormal this year is the flooding. I've been saying this since March, when the opening salvos of severe flooding hit the Midwest. Since then, it's only been getting worse and worse.

This is more and more reminding me of 1993, which is considered the epic, worst year of Midwest flooding. That year, broad areas of the middle of nation, basically from Wisconsin south and down along much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys, spend months in the spring and summer dealing with devastating floods.

So far this year, the flooding has been going on for more than two months and shows few signs of stopping. The Weather Channel reports 70-year-old earthen levees are just barely holding back the record high Arkansas River in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and parts of that city might flood.

In Fort Smith, Arkansas, the Arkansas River is expected to crest at a level four feet higher than the previous record high crest, set in 1945.

This same general areas, from Iowa down to Missouri and Oklahoma and Arkansas, can expect another three to six inches of rain in the next seven days, with locally higher amounts.

Some rivers have been above flood stage since March, and this forecast is sure to prolong this agony.

In Louisiana, officials expect to open the Morganza Spillway for only the third time in history, beause the Mississippi River remains so high, and is expected to be at major flood stage into early June at least.

The spillway, built in 1954, diverts excess Mississippi River floodwater onto an expanse of farmland. It's a last ditch effort as the water coming through the open spillway ends up in the Atchafalaya River to the west, which of course would worsen flooding there.

The last time the spillway was open, in 2011, it flooded about 4,600 square miles of rural Louisiana near the Atchafalaya River, says the Category 6 blog. So as you can see, there are no really great solutions to dealing with this large amount of water.

Flooding does seem to be becoming more frequent and serious in recent years and decades. Part of that has to do with land use. More parking lots, roofs, roads, houses, etc. mean water can't soak into the ground so much. So it runs off, worsening flooding.

Part of it has to do with climate change. Warmer air can hold more water vapor, and if the right kind of storm comes along, that extra water vapor gets released as extra heavy downpours, which makes floods worse than they otherwise would be.

After this week, it's unclear whether the relentless rains in the Midwest will finally taper off. The weather pattern is changing somewhat, which could cut down on the amount of rain drenching the middle of the nation.

Terrible Tornadoes This Year Are "Normal," But Of Course That's Not Good

This chart is a little hard to read so click on it to make it bigger
and easier to see, but it shows the building number of
tornadoes each year since 2005. The black line is this year,
and we are off to the fastest first half of tornado season
since 2011.

It seems every day lately we get news of another terrible tornado. Deaths. Neighborhoods destroyed. Farms blown to pieces.

So it was last night when yet another tornado slammed into El Reno, Oklahoma, killing at least two people. A motel was blown apart, as was a good chunk of a mobile home park in El Reno, which is about 25 miles west of Oklahoma City.

If the words "El Reno" and "tornado" sound familiar, that's because the widest tornado on record 2.6 miles wide - hit El Reno in 2013, killing eight people, including storm chaser Tim Samaras.

There are unconfirmed reports of somewhat smaller tornadoes last night right in Oklahoma City, and in the southern part of Tulsa.

Preliminary reports indicate there have been 820 tornadoes in the United States so far this year, as of May 24. That sounds like a lot, and it is. But it's actually not anywhere near a record. Still, it's the most tornadoes as of this time of year since 2011.

By May 24 of the terrible tornado year of 2011, there had already been 1,252 twisters. In another awful year, 2008, there had been 1,139 tornadoes.

So far this year 34 people have died in United States tornadoes. On average about 75 or so people die in tornadoes annually. Last year, only ten people died in tornadoes, one of the lowest annual tolls on record. By contrast, 2011 saw 553 tornado deaths, the second worst year on record. In 1925, 774 people died.

It's still only midway through the tornado season, so it remains to be seen whether the year will keep trending busier than recent ones, and whether there will be more deaths.  The busy season could keep going, or the activity can abruptly shut down. You never know.

In the short term, the tornado forecast isn't really good. Tornadoes are forecast daily in the middle of the nation through Wednesday, and there could be quite a few of them on Tuesday, at least according to latest forecasts.

Indications are that the threat of severe weather and tornadoes will start to wane somewhat toward the end of the week.

Summer (Unofficially) Here! Don't Go In The Water - Yet

Lake Champlain in the summer of 2016. People who want to  re-create
this nice scene over the Memorial Day weekend should remember
the lake is still very cold. Be safe! 

When I got up this Saturday morning and looked up the National Weather Service website like I always do first thing, I noted most of northern New England, including all of Vermont was covered by a Special Weather Statement.

"What fresh hell is this?," I wondered. Often, a special weather statement from the NWS means they're worried about some impending storm but haven't quite pulled the trigger on watches or warnings yet.

Or it means there's some sort of localized hazard which would mean getting out and driving on the roads will be a nightmare.    

However, today's special weather statement was none of those things. It is, however, a very wise warning to those venturing out to enjoy the first unofficial weekend of summer.  Basically it said that the weekend would be fairly nice, and temperatures would warm up into the 70s.

That means people would be tempted to go to the lake, maybe brave a dip, or even more likely go out for an excursion on their boats.   The special weather statement told us to beware, though:

"The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia to anyone immersed in the water. According to the U.S. Coast Guard, when the temperatures are below 50 degrees, the chance of immediate incapacitation due to cold shock is extremely high. 

Anyone on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly if recreating this weekend, and use extreme caution to avoid the threat. Paddle smart from the start and always wear your life jacket."

Especially on larger lakes, like Champlain, winds will gust to 25 mph at times, increasing the risk of overturning small boats.

Not everybody will heed the warnings: For example, last Sunday, I saw some people swimming in frigid Lake Bomoseen as thunder rumbled in the distance. A double whammy of dangerously cold water and lightning strikes. Lovely.

Another big event this weekend for the Green Mountain State is the Vermont City Marathon and Relay. Conditions will be great for spectators, but maybe a bit much for some of the runners.

Rain tonight will largely have ended by the time the race starts a little after 7 a.m. Sunday. Skies will at least partially clear during the race, so the sun's heat will be a factor. So will the humidity. Dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. It won't be oppressive, but runners will feel it.

Temperatures at the start of the race will probably be near 60 degrees and reach the mid-70s by early afternoon. There is a remote chance of a shower or thunderstorm, so there's a slight risk lightning could be a hazard. But that chance is pretty low.

At least this year will be better than 2016, when extreme heat and humidity injured several runners and forced organizers to suspend the marathon just under four hours into it.

Global Heat Goes On: April Was World's Second Hottest On Record

Canada, the ocean off the west coast of Australia and parts of the
Mideast were a bit cool in April, but most of the rest
of the world was warm. Again. It was globally
the second warmest April on record 

Once again in April, parts of the United States and Canada didn't get the memo:

While a few sections of North America were a little on the cool side, the world as a whole had its second hottest April on record, says NOAA's Centers for Environmental Information.

Only April 2016 had a toastier global temperature in records that date back to 1880.

The warm April follows March, which was also the second warmest on record for Earth.

For those of you keeping track, this was the 43rd warmer than average April in a row. It was also the 412th consecutive month with above normal global temperatures. If you're younger than 34 years old, you've never seen a cooler-than-average global month.

In April, the hottest spots, relative to average, were Greenland, Scandinavia and northern and central Asia. Relative cool spots were mostly limited to Canada, areas near the Great Lakes, and the southern Ocean near Australia.

(Here in Vermont, April's temperatures were pretty close to normal.)

Arctic sea ice extent was also the lowest on record in April, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

That doesn't necessarily mean this summer will be the most ice-free on record way up at the top of the Earth. It all depends on weather and ocean currents. There have been some springs in recent years with very low Arctic ice extent, followed by summers in which the ice was puny, but not at record lows.

These monthly updates on global climate come out about two weeks or so after the month closes. We'll see how May went when the next report appears in mid-June.

Tornado Outbreak Escalated Wednesday On Annivesary Of Epic, Tragic Joplin Tornado

A lightning flash illuminates a huge tornado going through
Jefferson City, Missouri last night. Photo via Twitter by Jaclyn Morrow.

Monday was the anniversary of the 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado that killed 24 people and caused $2 billion in damage. That area was on high alert for a repeat: There was a high risk of more big tornadoes on Monday.  

That didn't fully pan out, luckily, as the tornadoes weren't as strong or as numerous as expected.

Luck ran out Wednesday elsewhere, though. On the ninth anniversary of an even worse tornado disaster, this one that destroyed much of Joplin, Missouri and killed 161 people, another giant twister touched down on the outskirts of Joplin Wednesday evening.

The good news is Wednesday night's tornado did not slam through the city of Joplin, sparing its surely freaked out residents. The bad news is the tornado hit other towns just north of Joplin,  killing at least three people. The parent supercell thunderstorm kept marauding northeastward from there, dropping more big tornadoes.

Those included a devastating one that hit Missouri's capital of Jefferson City. So far, we have reports of 20 injuries there and lots of damage. Houses have collapsed, roofs are gone from schools and other buildings in Jefferson City.

On top of all that, the Missouri River in Jefferson City is expected to crest at its highest level in 24 years,  which will flood some downtown streets.

Wednesday night's tornadoes are part of an ongoing series of severe weather that I talked about yesterday. There's no rest of the weary. Some more tornadoes are forecast in various locations in the middle of the nation daily through at least next Tuesday.

I imagine flooding in the middle of the country, already very bad, will worsen, too, with moderate to high risks of new flooding from heavy rain ongoing at least today through Saturday.  This is a long running disaster, with no signs of quitting.

Occasionally, this awful weather extends its tentacles outside the Midwest. Today, the Northeast is under the gun with the threat of severe weather, and even maybe a few tornadoes in Pennsylvania and New York, and parts of surrounding states.

Some of those storms that get going in New York could hold together by the time they reach western Vermont later today.  That means a couple places could see strong, gusty thunderstorm winds and maybe some small hail.

The severe threat in Vermont isn't nearly as high as it is in New York and Pennsylvania, but it's something to be watched. If you get any kind of severe thunderstorm warning later today, get inside a sturdy building and wait it out. The storms will be moving fast, so it won't last long.

Another dose of severe thunderstorms is likely Saturday, though those storms will go south of Vermont. We'll just get rain and maybe some rumbles of thunder.

"Amplified" Weather Pattern Keeps The Severe Storms, Weird Weather Going

Satellite view of a storm system in the middle of the nation on
Tuesday. It's rare to get a storm this well developed and
wound up this late in the spring. 

It's true that the current extreme weather pattern in much of the nation did not produce the expected huge tornado outbreak in the southern Plains Monday.

That's great, of course. But the current weather pattern is keeping a large part of the nation in a
daily grind of flooding, spots of severe thunderstorms, almost daily tornadoes somewhere in the nation, and other bad stuff.

Storm systems coming across the country this week are stronger than they normally would be this time of year.

It's an incredibly weird, stormy May in large swaths of the nation, and that's not going to change anytime soon. Some videos at the bottom of this post illustrate some of the damaging weather.

It's hard to get precise as to what will happen where beyond three days from now, so we'll stick to what's happening now, and what will occur in the next couple of days.

Here in Vermont, there might be a couple moments of "interesting" weather over the next week or so, but it won't be a wild as other parts of the nation.

The weather pattern is what weather geeks would call amplified.  That just means the dips and upward bumps in the jet stream are bigger than usual.

Generally in the winter, the jet stream is amplified, meaning there are deep southward pushes in the jet stream matched by big bulges northward.

By this time of year, the jet stream is normally much less "amplified" as we head toward summer. The dips in the jet stream aren't that big, and the northward bulges aren't impressive, either. Plus the entire jet stream tends to shift northward into Canada, leaving most of us here in the United States with relatively few extremes in the weather department.

The jet stream this week has clearly not gotten the memo that winter is over. It sinks way down deep into the western United States, created odd snowstorms and an unusual chill. Meanwhile, a strong ridge of high pressure is over the Southeast, which will create a heat wave there over the next few days.

The battle zone between the cold west and the hot southeast runs diagonally from roughly and broadly from Texas to the Northeast. That battleground is where the repeated storms and possible flooding will occur.

TEMPERATURE EXTREMES

The cold out west is incredibly impressive for this time of year.  High temperatures this time of year are normally in the low 90s in Las Vegas. Today's expected high temperature there is just 64 degrees, which is chillier than the expected high way up north in Burlington, Vermont, where it's supposed to get up to 67 degrees today.

The snow across parts of Colorado, Wyoming and the Black Hills of South Dakota has been impressive, too. Some higher elevations in Colorado got up to 20 inches of new snow over the past couple of days. There's massive tree damage in some towns, like Colorado Springs, as several inches of wet, heavy snow clung to the leaves on the trees, weighing them down so branches snapped.

Meanwhile, record heat will grip the Southeast. High temperatures near 100 degrees are likely over the Memorial Day weekend in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas and some Gulf Coast states. Some of these readings would be all-time high temperature records for the entire month of May.

THE STORMY BATTLE ZONE

As mentioned the Midwest, and occasionally parts of the Northeast are in a storm zone in part because of the temperature contrasts between the west and Southeast.

To give you one example of this weird contrast: It snowed in western Nebraska Tuesday, but in the eastern part of the state, there were tornadoes.

Severe thunderstorms and perhaps a few tornadoes are possible
tomorrow in areas shaded in yellow and orange.

There were actually more tornadoes reported Tuesday - a preliminary count of 38 - in the midde of the nation than on what was to have been the great big outbreak on Monday, when the preliminary count was 22 twisters. (These numbers are subject to change as the National Weather Service investigates tornado reports.)

More tornadoes are possible today in parts of northeastern Oklahoma, Missouri and eastern Kansas.  On Thursday, the interesting weather heads to the Northeast, where severe thunderstorms are possible.

The greatest risk on Thursday of severe weather is in Pennsylvania, where there could even be a few tornadoes out of this. Some strong to severe storms could develop in northern New York and move into western Vermont late in the afternoon or the evening.

Though there won't be widespread bad storms, a couple spots in western Vermont especially could have thunderstorm winds strong enough to knock down some trees or branches. It could also hail.

Another round of severe storms looks like it could strike the Northeast Saturday. Early indications are Vermont will get a good slug of rain, but we will be too far north to get the severe thunderstorms.

There will also be almost daily chances of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the southern Plains through the weekend.

Flooding will continue to be a threat, as if there hasn't been enough of it in the middle of the nation already. Flood warnings remain in effect across a broad area of Missouri, southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma.

Flooding has been extreme in Oklahoma, with one creek rising from six feet to 36 feet deep within a day.

Flood warnings and watches are also up for western South Dakota.

The stormy spring continues on....

Some videos:

Television station KTVQ aired this tornado video from Oklahoma on Monday:



CBS News report really shows the great extent of Oklahoma flooding:



NBC News shows a woman in Oklahoma being rescued from rushing water:



And a news report of the snow and tree damage in the Denver/Colorado Springs area:

Tornadoes Didn't Hit Big Towns, But Extreme Weather Continues

News9 in Oklahoma City captured these twin tornadoes
north of Oklahoma City Monday. Photo via Matt Mahler
on Twitter. 

That highly anticipated tornado outbreak in Texas and Oklahoma did roar into being on Monday, but thankfully, none of the larger tornadoes went right through major towns.

There was plenty of damage from the 22 tornadoes reported in the region so far, but no deaths. A particularly nasty tornado hit the outskirts of Magnum, Oklahoma, causing lots of damage.

Tornado warnings are still going out in eastern Oklahoma this morning, and more twisters are a definite possibility, especially in Missouri and Arkansas later today.  

FLOODING WORSE THAN TORNADOES

As I alluded to yesterday, the flooding in the region is actually worse than the tornadoes. There is widespread, serious flooding going on in Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri, and the rains keep falling.

Areas in red can expect several inches more of rain over
the next seven days with continued serious flooding. 

The weather pattern is "stuck" again, with a ridge of hot high pressure in the Southeast and a deep dip in the jet stream in the West. This is creating a parade of storms moving diagonally southwest to northeast in the middle of the nation.

This is, of course, very bad news, as the severe storm risk will continue all week in the Midwest.  Worse, repeated bursts of heavy rain will fall on already flooded areas, worsening the situation Parts of Oklahoma got six inches or more of rain just yesterday.

Parts of Interstate 40 west of Oklahoma City were closed by flooding this morning. Water was invading the Ponca City, Oklahoma police station. Cars were swept off roads by flooding in Joplin, Missouri, says the Weather Channel.

Parts of Missouri, Iowa and Kansas can expect at least six inches more rain in the next seven days. This is on top of serious flooding going on already in those states.

COLORADO SNOW, AGAIN

In the cold air to the west of the storminess, odd late season snow continues to fall in Colorado, Wyoming and in the Black Hills of South Dakota. Denver reported three inched of new snow, one of only seven times since 1882 that an inch or  more of snow has fallen in the city.

Unfortunately, the wet, heavy snow was snapping branches on trees that had already leafed out. Car crashes on snowy highways led to the temporary closure on Interstate 70 through the mountains.

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA

In one more unusual weather event in a week of odd weather, Subtropical Storm Andrea formed yesterday well off the Southeast U.S. coast. It's weak and will probably dissipate tomorrow, but this is yet another year in which a tropical or tropical type storm formed ahead of the normal hurricane season, which starts June 1.

VERMONT/NEW ENGLAND UPDATE

The Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in
a marginal risk zone for severe thunderstorms
Thursday, with a somewhat greater chance off to our west

Luckily, little in the way of severe weather developed in New England Monday, despite much of the region being under a severe thunderstorm watch. Storms did cause some tree damage in and around Providence, Rhode Island.

Here in Vermont, we were lucky that most places didn't get any additional torrential downpours during the day Monday.

The storms Sunday night dumped up to three inches of rain in a few hours in parts of central Vermont, leading to minor flooding and road washouts.

Sunday night's heavy rain will prolong the Lake Champlain flooding. By Sunday, the lake had fallen to 100.25 feet, which is just four inches or so above flood stage. It looked like the very long, but minor flood that began on April 20 would end soon.

But the lake is temporarily rising again, getting up to around 100.4 feet by this morning. It'll start to fall again soon, unless we get more heavy rain.

The next shot of rain is Thursday, when another round of showers and thunderstorms will blow through. There's even a marginal chance of perhaps a few more severe storms. We'll see.

All those storms in the Plains will keep ejected northeastward toward us over the next week, so we'll get frequent bouts of rain with just short intervals of dry weather in between. Luckily, they won't be as intense as they were in the Plains by the time they get here, but we'll still have to watch occasionally for locally heavy rain through next week.

Today: Some Severe Risk New England; Ominous Tornado Threat Southern Plains

Areas in dark green have a chance of a
few isolated severe thunderstorms today.
Area in yellow has a somewhat greater
chance of severe storms, but this won't
be nearly as widespread as the dangerous
weather in the southern Plains today. 

1:15 p.m. Update

Maybe it's because I'm from rather tornado-free Vermont, but I'd be scared right now if I lived in Oklahoma.

As of this writing the National Weather Service was just about to issue a rare "Particularly Dangerous Situation" tornado watch for western and central Oklahoma.

Supercells are expected to explosive develop there in the next couple of hours in an atmosphere that has a rare combination of extreme factors that can form violent and long lasting tornadoes.

This kind of thing happens only once every few years, so forecasters are right that this is a very dangerous situation. Everyone in this region should be on high alert for the rest of this afternoon and evening. 

Here in the Northeast, things still aren't too bad as of 1 p.m. There are a couple of broken lines of storms forming, the most well developed one so far in east central New York and starting to run into southwestern Vermont.

This line will continue to develop and might cause some severe storms later this afternoon.  Other storms will develop, and some might still become severe, especially from the Green Mountains east.

Some storms were already developing near Burlington and near the Canadian border as of 1 p.m. Keep a watchful eye to the skies this afternoon for scattered strong to locally severe storms. We're still in line to get this.

At least it's not remotely comparable to the situation in Oklahoma.

UPDATE 10:15 a.m. Monday:

The first hints of a line of storms looks like they are about to form in the northwestern Adirondacks and then head east. There's still a chance of some scattered severe thunderstorms in Vermont and the rest of New England, starting in the northwest in about an hour or two.

The storms should be through Vermont by late afternoon, with the greatest but still uncertain risk of strong to severe storms in the eastern half of Vermont.

I'm thinking the Champlain Valley should be through the brief window of severe thunderstorm risk by about 3 p.m. or so.

Meanwhile, that high risk zone of potentially dangerous tornadoes today has been expanded slightly east to encompass the Oklahoma City metro area.

Earlier, Oklahoma City was still in a serious, but ever so slightly less dire Moderate Risk. People in Oklahoma and Texas should be ready to seek shelter at a moment's notice today. It's still a dangerous situation out there today.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

The chances of some very, very dangerous tornadoes is high in the southern Plains today as the atmospheric conditions are almost off the charts to create such an ominous hazard.

That, of course, is the big weather headline of the day, and I'll get into the major threats in Oklahoma and Texas in a bit. But since we're in New England, I'll talk about a lesser, but still real threat of severe thunderstorms in our neck of the woods today.

I was surprised by the amount of severe weather in New York and Pennsylvania yesterday.  There were quite a few tornado warnings, though I don't know yet if any touched down in those states.

The severe weather made a run at southwestern Vermont, but the storms weakened a little just before reaching the Green Mountain State.

But it was a close call. There are no reports of significant damage in Vermont, but just over the western border into Fort Edward, New York and the Glens Falls area, it was something! Tornado warning went up west of Glens Falls, a roof blew off a house in South Glens Falls, and there was a ot of damage in Fort Edward.

Some of the storms in Vermont overnight produced torrential downpours, with up to three inches of rain reported near Worcester. That caused minor flooding and some areas of road washouts.

It's possible some of today's storms, if they're persistent, could cause some local flash flooding, but that problem won't be widespread.

We're still in a severe thunderstorm threat today in Vermont and the rest of New England. As always, only a few people will receive any severe storms, but stay weather alert.

A cold front will be intruding on warm, humid air in place right now. There was a round of thunderstorms early this morning, which often tends to stabilize the air and reduce the chances of severe weather.

But there will be some sun during the rest of this morning, and that will destabilize the air again enough to raise the threat of storms.

While anyplace in Vermont and the rest of New England could get a strong storm today, the best chances seem to be in the southeastern third of Vermont, most of New Hampshire, and western Massachusetts and Connecticut. 

The biggest threat from today's storms would be strong straight line winds. There is actually a very minimal but still real threat of a brief tornado in southeastern Vermont, western Massachusetts and New Hampshire. But nothing like what the southern Plains will experience today.

Conditions in Vermont will quickly calm down this evening and in the early part of tonight further east into New England.

So just go about your business, and if you hear a severe thunderstorm warning, just get into a sturdy house or building and wait it out. It won't last long.

SOUTHERN PLAINS DANGER

A rare high risk zone (in pink) today for potentially strong,
violent, long-lived tornadoes. Areas in red, including
Oklahoma City are at nearly as high of risk as the pink zone.

I can certain understand why a lot of people are worried about the weather today in northern Texas and Oklahoma. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has declared a pretty rare high risk zone for significant and very dangerous tornadoes in much of that region, including the cities of Lawton, Altus and El Reno, Oklahoma.

This is the first high risk alert the Storm Prediction Center has issued for anywhere in the nation since May 18, 2017.

The much larger metro area of Oklahoma City is just outside the edge of the high risk zone, but still in a moderate risk zone for big tornadoes, which is something to take super seriously.

A lot of schools are closed in the Oklahoma City metro area today so that kids are not stuck in potentially unsafe schools, or worse, out on the road in school buses when dangerous weather hits.

Tornado outbreaks often peak around the time of the evening rush hour, so I imagine a lot of people in that region are calling in "sick" to work today, so they're not caught out on jam packed roads if dangerous weather hits.

Nobody knows for sure whether Oklahoma City and its populous suburbs wil get nailed today, but somebody will probably see a very bad tornado. Everyone hopes, of course, the worst tornadoes stay out in open country.

The wording on the Storm Prediction Center's advisory this morning isn't pretty: "This event should result in a significant threat to life and property," says the advisory. It adds that conditions are favorable for "long-track strong tornadoes and possibly violent tornadoes."

There will be at least two rounds of bad storms with this unusually strong storm system. The first is already creating severe thunderstorms in western Texas and those should grow and sweep across northern Texas and Oklahoma this morning and early afternoon. These storms will carry the risk of some tornadoes and large hail.

There have already been reports of baseball sized hail early this morning in northwestern Texas. Usually, you don't see hailstones that big with early morning thunderstorm. That gives you an idea of how volatile this situation is.

Then the second, most serious round gets going this afternoon into the evening. That's when the region I described is under the gun for violent tornadoes, hail up to the size of softballs and straight line winds of 80 mph or even more.

Not everybody in this area will get some extreme weather, but a few places probably will. This will be in the news headlines tonight and tomorrow.

Tornadoes obviously capture attention, but another big threat is looming with these storms, especially up in Oklahoma and in particular the Oklahoma City area.

It's been wet there, and extreme amounts of rain will accompany these dangerous, tornadic thunderstorms. There's a high risk of flash flooding in central Oklahoma today, says NOAA's Weather Prediction Center.

It's only somewhat more common to have a high risk zone for flash floods than a high risk zone for tornadoes. Whatever the case, Oklahoma and some surrounding areas are in for a very, very rough day.

Quick Taste Of Summer: Humidity, Storms Briefly Come To Vermont

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms in the Northeast
Monday, including Vermont (dark green shading). That big
red blob in the Plains represents a decent chance of
tornadoes on Monday, some of which might be quite strong. 

Our first real taste of summer is coming, briefly to the North Country later today through Monday in the form of noticable humidity and the threat of thunderstorms.

A warm front was approaching Vermont early this morning. With it are showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Most of the rain today will come this morning and early afternoon and mostly in northern parts of the state.  

It's going to be tricky figuring out high temperatures today. It depends upon how far north the warm front gets. At least in southern sections, though, you'll notice warmth and a touch of summer humidity.

With that, there is a risk of scattered thunderstorms this evening, again especially in southern Vermont. A couple storms in this region have a chance of being a bit on the strong side, with gusty winds, lightning and downpours.  Scattered heavy downpours are likely across central Vermont today as well.

If that's not a sign of summer, nothing is.

Tonight will be the first warm, humid night of the year. It might not be a great idea to leave the windows open, though, because there will be a continued risk of showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two,

Monday could be an interesting day. Before a cold front arrives in the evening or overnight, warm, humid air will be in place. If you're working outside, you'll feel the humidity. Especially because we're not used to it yet. Drink plenty of fluids.

A series of disturbances in the atmosphere, plus that approaching cold front, will interact with that humidity to touch off more showers and storms. This will bring our first real chance of severe thunderstorms to Vermont this season.

I said chance because this isn't cast in stone. If skies clear during the day more than expected, that would add some instability to the air, increasing the chance of strong to severe storms. Even without the clearing, there could still be a strong storm or two. For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal risk zone for severe storms on Monday.

If there are severe storms, they won't be all that widespread. A few towns could get some damaging wind gusts, but most of us won't. Just be weather aware. Go inside if you hear thunder. If a severe thunderstorm warning goes up in your area, do the usual thing and get into a sturdy building.  Consider postponing a drive until the storm passes.

Even if a thunderstorm that hits your area isn't severe, there still could be very heavy downpours, local street flooding and plenty of cloud-to-ground lightning. Again, just be aware of what's coming down the pike in terms of storms.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says the best chance of strong storms on Monday will come between 11 a.m. and 7 p.m. Monday. Things will settle down quickly by sunset.

At least our severe weather threat in the Green Mountain State isn't extreme. A separate, strong storm is setting up a good chance of a big tornado outbreak in and around Oklahoma on Monday. Some tornadoes might end up being particularly strong, so that bears watching.

Monday is also the anniverary of the deadly EF-5 Moore, Oklahoma tornado of 2013, which killed 24 people, injured hundreds and caused about $2 billion in damage.

This same area is under the gun for possible strong tornadoes Monday.

Yes, Vermont Has Had Much Worse Weather In May Than This Year

It's true that this May in Vermont has been cool, damp, cloudy and
rainy, but the weather has definitely been worse in other Vermont Mays

After yet another round of rain Friday morning, the sun came out in Vermont's Champlain Valley during the afternoon. The temperature in Burlington sneaked up to 77 degrees, the warmest reading so far this year.

The nice weather was welcome, as lots of people have been grumbling about the cool, damp, cloudy nature of May, 2019.

I've had a few people ask if this is the worst May for weather in memory. I can't speak for the rest of the cloudy Northeast, but we've had much, much, MUCH worse weather in Vermont this time of year.

I've got lots of examples. We run to David Ludlum's Vermont Weather Book, which tells plenty of tales of May misery.

On May 15, 1834, for instance. snow fell at a rate of one inch every 10 minutes for two hours in Newbury, Vermont, reaching a depth of three feet(!!) In low elevation Rutland, a foot of snow accumulated.

May, 1966 was probably the worst modern May on record. On May 3 that year, it reached 24 degrees in Burlington, which is still the coldest May temperature on record in the Queen City. It was 18 degrees that morning in Bloomfield and Chelsea.

Then, on May 8-10, 1966, Vermont had three consecutive days of snow. It accumulated to 3.5 inches in Burlington, 5.2 inches in Newport and 11 inches in Peru, Vermont.

My subjective vote for the worst May weather in my lifetime was in 1997. It wasn't the coldest May on record, but it was quite chilly, and constantly cloudy. Snowflakes made it all the way down into the Champlain Valley on May 7. It was 27 degrees on May 5, so anything that was trying to grow early got zapped by frost.

Under the persistent overcast, the temperature never made it above 70 degrees until May 28 in 1997, and the trees didn't leaf out until the end of the month. Ugh.

The first half of May, 1996 was at least as bad, with a general snowfall hitting most of the state, including the Champlain Valley on May 12 that year. Even Burlington got 0.3 inches of snow, which I think is the last time measureable snow fell in Burlington during May. (The weather got much better during the second half of May, 1996.)

This May surely won't be among the wettest on record, even as rainfall has been running above average. It does seem as though most recent Mays have been wet. The soggiest Mays on record in Burlington are 2013 (8.74 inches); 2011 (8.67 inches) and May 2006 (7.10 inches).  Those three wet Mays were not chilly, however. They were all warmer than average.

Looking ahead, the weather pattern looks like it will stay active, but maybe not as persistently overcast as it has been. Temperatures will bounce around a fair amount, but overall it won't be too far from average for this time of year.

Severe Weather Outbreak To Draw A Big Crowd, Including Scientific Researchers

A severe thunderstorm looms over Indiana on Thursday. Teams of
scientists will be on the Plains over the next month studying
severe storms and tornadoes. Photo via
Twitter by Kyle Lockhart, @eas3964

There have been pushes over the years to really study severe weather and tornado outbreaks in the Midwest and South, resulting in forecasts and warnings that are much better and more timely than they used to be.

Those better forecasts have helped lead to days of anticipation this week that a severe weather outbreak in the Plains would begin in earnest today and last for several days. That is turning out to be the case. 

Which gives scientists a chance to poke and prod these storms even more, in the hopes of improving forecasts even more.

As the Category 6 blog notes, the largest experiment in years to study supercells and tornadoes kicks off this week, coinciding with the start of this severe weather outbreak. The study was long planned. The timing of the severe weather this weekend was just a lucky break.

Says Category 6:

"The TORUS project (Targeted Observation by Radars and UAS of Supercells) is drawing on a $2.4 million grant from the National Science Foundation plus about $1.5 million from NOAA."

One area of focus is rotating thunderstorms, which sometimes produce tornadoes. Here's the problem:  There's often thunderstorms with enough rotation to prompt tornado warnings, but most of these rotating storms ultimately don't produce tornadoes.  Up to 70 percent of tornado warnings are false alarms, which means there's a real risk people will ignore tornado warnings since there "always" is no tornado.

Scientists want to better understand which rotating storms are not much to worry about and which ones will produce tornadoes. That would reduce the number of "false alarms."

Unlike past big tornado studies in the 1990s and early 2000s, there is a new tool this time: Drones.

Drones will take video, like that famous one of a drone's eye view of an Oklahoma tornado earlier this year. But the main purpose of the drones, says Category 6,  is to take data just above ground level, to an elevation of up to 2,500 feet. That will help the scientists better understand just what is happening in the clouds of storms that produce tornadoes, and those that don't.

A hurricane hunter will also be deployed to check out the Plains storms. It's not hurricane season, so the plane is available.

This all sounds like an update of the movie "Twister," and I'm sure the graduate students in this study have a bit of a giddy feeling that they're advancing science while at the same time being awestruck by the sight of Plains supercells.

There will also be hordes of other storm chasers out there over the next few days. Let's hope they stay safe, and don't take too many reckless chances in the name of getting spectacular too-close tornado videos.

A life is not worth a few extra clicks on social media

Weather Pattern Change: No Snow And Hints Of Summer

Even the National Weather Service office in South Burlington seems a bit excited.

The eight to fourteen day forecast from the National Weather
Service Climate Prediction Center hints at above
normal temperatures to end the month in
the eastern United States. It stays cold in the Rockies.

On their home page this morning, they touted the national eight-to-fourteen day general national weather forecast from the NWS's Climate Prediction Center. 

All long range forecasts are uncertain, but this particular one calls for greater than even chances of warmer than normal temperatures in the East, including in Vermont, for the closing ten days of May. (Their six to ten day forecast has basically the same scenario.)

This would mean a change from the persistently dreary, cool and sometimes snowy weather we've had this month. It would also mean our first consistent taste of summer.

High temperatures this time of year are usually in the upper 60s to around 70. And those normal highs continue to climb as we make our way through the month.

Which means warmer than normal temperatures, if they happen, would definitely feel like summer. I'd expect we'd have some days under this long range forecast to be well into the 70s or even 80s. If the forecast is accurate, that is.

It's been a wet month and that trend will continue in the short term. A series of storms that is expected to bring several days of severe weather to the middle of the nation will also send a series of warm fronts towards us.

Warm fronts do bring warmer air in general (duh!), so that fits the Climate Prediction Center forecasts. The fronts also tend to bring rain. The first batch will come through Friday morning. It won't be a tremendous storm, not even close. But it will continue our wet trend.

It will stay on the cool side at least through Saturday, too. But seasonably cool, not cold and snowy like earlier this week. Those days are over, finally. About time, too. The snow depth at the summit of Mount Mansfield is back up to 58 inches, which is a lot for mid-May.

The next warm front looks like it will come along Sunday. Meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South Burlington know that will bring showers, but they understandably don't yet know where most of the showers will set up. It all depends upon the placement of the front.

Temperatures Sunday will be tricky, too. It'll be cool north of the front and warm and maybe a little sticky (summer!) south of the front. We just don't know where the front will be.

Enough warm and humid air might come along by Monday to set off some summer-like thunderstorms, but it's too soon to speculate on how extensive those storms might be, if they develop.

That long range forecast I opened with in this blog post also calls for even chances of above or below normal rainfall at the end of the month. That's a hint that May could close out not only warm, but maybe a little sunnier and drier than it's been.

Why You Need To Heed Warnings: Mild Storm Escalates To Tornado In Seconds

An enormous tornado nears a man's house as he films the twister
in 2015. The tornado ended up hitting his house, severely
injuring him and killing his wife. The outcome was less
tragic, but nearly as scary in the video at the bottom of this post.

I'm not sure where the video at the bottom of this post was shot, but it was somewhere in the South recently.

As it starts, you see what looks like a fairly benign thunderstorm. It doesn't even look all that dark or ominous.

At about 20 seconds in, you hear tornado sirens in the distance start to moan. The woman keeps filming. The weather doesn't seem to be getting any worse. Until it does.

With shocking swiftness, what is apparently a tornado turns everything upside down in just a few seconds. Somehow, the woman manages to retreat inside as the tornado rips her house apart.  Spoiler: She survives.

And just as suddenly, the tornado is gone, and everything has calmed down again. Except now everything is in ruins.

The woman was extremely lucky. There surely was a tornado warning in her area, which a weather radio or local media would have mentioned if she was listening for it. And while you shouldn't rely on tornado sirens, they do give you an alert.

As incredible as the video is, she should have taken shelter at the first notice of a tornado warning.

These kinds of tornado films have ended in tragedy. In 2015, a man filmed a large tornado from an upstairs bedroom in his Fairdale, Illinois home. He thought the tornado would go by a little ways fto his west, but it swerved right into it, severely injuring him, killing his wife and destroying his house.

The only bright side to the tragedy is tornado scientists regarded the film as an excellent twister research tool.

So don't film.

I'm saying this because it still looks like the middle of the nation is in for quite a tornado outbreak over several days, starting Friday. Heed those warnings!

Here's the video:

Vermont Weather To Go From Wild To Mild, But For Rest Of Nation, Just The Opposite

A spring snowman in Peacham, Vermont today. Photo via
Twitter from Tim Scott Real Estate.

As expected, snow was falling in the higher elevations of northern New England, including here in Vermont.

Web cams from the ski areas all show snow covered slopes. According to National Weather Service reports this morning,
Greensboro and Woodford reported four inches. Danville, Vermont has seen 3.5 inches of new snow, with 3.3 inches on a hill above Ludlow; 2.5 inches in a high spot in Plainfield, and 2 inches at the 1,600 foot elevation in Marshfield.

After today, the weather in Vermont will improve through the rest of the week as we head toward near normal temperatures, we think, by the weekend. The weather will probably remain unsettled, but the snow will be over by Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile, big trouble is brewing in much of the rest of the nation. It's peak tornado season. We're in a bit of a lull with the severe storms, which is great, but that's not going to last. Things might get very bad in the middle of the country by the weekend.

It looks like there will be a multi-day outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes in the middle of the nation. It will begin Friday and last through at least Monday. Weather pundits are saying this could well be the most impressive and potentially dangerous weather pattern in the Plains since 2003 or 2004.

It could also possibly be the worst outbreak of severe weather for the nation as a whole since 2011 or 2012, but that remains to be seen. The potential is there.

Details of how this possible outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes plays out is TBA, but I think you will be seeing such weather on the news by the weekend.

Vermont Agency of Transportation web cam image along
Interstate 89 in Brookfield at mid-morning today. 

The stormy weather will also dump a lot of rain on the Mississippi River Valley and surrounding things. Not good, considering all the flooding that's been going on in the region since March.

Meanwhile, on the West Coast, an unseasonably cold and wet storm is expected to come in this week.  By this time of year, the kind of storm that brings inches of rain to the lowlands of northern California and feet of snow to the Sierra Nevada mountains is pretty much over.

But that's exactly what they're going to get. Several inches of rain could fall in northern California over the next week. Winter storm watches are already up for the Sierra Nevada above about 6,000 feet in elevation.

California already had a wet winter, and there's still plenty of snow still on the ground in the mountains to keep already full reservoirs filled to the top. I guess these storms are the icing on the cake.

All of the weather drama I've described above is all related to each other. A deep dip in the jet stream is about to carve itself out along the West Coast. That'll drive the big storms inland into California and Oregon.

Then, pieces of storm energy will eject through the Rockies into the Plains. This will draw warm, wet air northward into the Plains. This will also cause strong wind shear in the atmosphere. (Wind shear is  wind direction and speed changing with height, which is one necessary ingredient for tornado outbreaks.)

The dip in the jet stream out west will build a northward bulge in the jet stream in the East. That will be one way to keep the warm, wet air flowing into the potential tornado zone, and it will warm much of the eastern United States up to summertime levels.

But that warm outlook is super uncertain here in Vermont. We'll be on the northern edge of that northward bulge in the jet stream, which means we'll be close to the border between summer like air to the south and springtime chill to the north.

Weather disturbances will zip along this boundary, whipping it up and down like a rope. That makes it impossible to time out when it will rain in Vermont over the next week and when it won't rain. It also makes it almost impossible to tell more than a couple days in advance how warm or cold it will be coming up.

As usual, what will happen next with Vermont's weather is anybody's guess.