Matt's Weather Rapport is written by Vermont-based journalist and weather reporter Matt Sutkoski. This blog has a nationwide and worldwide focus, with particular interest in Vermont and the Northeast. Look to Matt's Weather Rapport for expert analysis of weather events, news, the latest on climate change science, fun stuff, and wild photos and videos of big weather events. Also check for my frequent quick weather updates on Twitter, @mattalltradesb
A big area of ugly weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico might
become Tropical Storm Cristobal
They told us this year would be an incredibly active Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season ad it's already off to a busy start.
True, the first tropical systems of the season have not been super strong, but that's typical.
The official Atlantic hurricane season didn't begin until yesterday, but there have been two tropical storms already, Arthur and Bertha, both of which had relatively minor effects on the U.S. Southeast coast during May.
There's now another tropical system bubbling in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It's a tropical depression, which means it has a real circulation like a tropical storm, though it's too weak to be considered one.
If this thing does become a tropical storm, they'll name it Cristobal. If wannabe Cristobal does become a tropical storm by June 5, it will be the earliest on record to have three tropical storms in the Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center says the forecast for wannabe Cristobal is uncertain, as it's trapped in a broader circulation in the Bay of Campeche. It might even dissipate in favor of a new storm, or wannabe Cristobal could just smack into land and dissipate down ther.e
Or, it could be drawn north toward the United States Gulf Coast. If that happens, it's possible the storm could feed off very warm Gulf of Mexico waters and approach hurricane strength, or even possible become a hurricane. Which would be odd for early June. That type of thing normally waits until later in the summer.
Few, if any forecasters expect this thing to get super strong, but that doesn't really matter. Tropical storms, especially slow movers like wannabe Cristobal, can dump torrential rains and cause some pretty extreme flooding.
On the other side of Central America, on the Pacific side, a relativeweak tropical storm named Amanda just caused immense flooding and landslides in El Salvador and Guatemala that killed at least 17 people.
The remnants of Amanda are one ingredient that is helping form wannabe Cristobal, by the way.
NEW ENGLAND CHILL
I guess opposites attract in northern New England.
After last week's record heat, record chill descended on Maine, especially in the north. Houlton, Maine this morning got down to 26 degrees, which is that town's all-time record low for the month of June. It was 91 degrees in Houlton on May 27.
Caribou, Maine got to 31 degrees, which was good enough to break a record for the date, but not the entire month.
Clouds sort of kept temperatures up overnight in Vermont last night. However, some gardens in the Green Mountain State were wrecked by frosts yesterday. For instance, it was 29 degrees in Gallup Mills, way up in the Northeast Kingdom, 30 degrees in Island Pond and 31 degrees in South Lincoln.
It'll keep gradually warming up through the rest of the week.
Today's satellite snapshot of Hurricane Florence depicts a
menacing, strengthening, dangerous storm.
Today, September 10, is often regarded as the exact peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. If you're going to have hurricanes, this is the date they are probably most likely.
This year, today, we've got three of them: Florence, Helene and Isaac. All full-fledged hurricanes.
Obviously, Florence is the one everybody really has their eyes on because it's such a threat to the East Coast. But we'll break things down one by one.
I'll get into Florence in a minute, but first, some more local weather for today:
EX-GORDON
The remains of Tropical Storm Gordon remain embedded in a storm system that was around Pennslyvania this morning. Much of that state is under flood warnings due to the heavy rain with this system. It's been a terrible summer in Pennsylvania. Every time I turn around, there's another flood there.
One example: Harrisburg, Pennsylvania has had about 47 inches of rain so far this year. That's about 19 inches more than they should have had by now.
Luckily for Pennsylvania, Ex-Gordon should start to move out of Pennsylvania later today. Luckily for us Vermonters, Ex-Gordon still looks like it's going to hit us later today and tonight.
We so desperately need the rain, and this will be a good one. Instead of short, sharp bursts of torrential rain we've had in scattered thunderstorms all summer, this storm will involve at least 12 consecutive hours of steady light to moderate rain.
That's the kind of rain that soaks into the ground nicely. Most of us here in Vermont can expect one to two inches of rain, with locally more in southern Vermont.
Enjoy the rain while you can. Despite this storm, we're still in the overall pattern we've had all summer, with a high pressure ridge in the upper atmosphere near or over us. After the rain tapers off Tuesday morning, expect no more precipitation at least through Sunday.
The expected path of Florencehasn't changed much since yesterday, and at the moment, North Carolina seems to be in Florence's crosshairs. The path could still shift to the north or south before we get to Thursday, when the hurricane is expected to make landfall.
Most forecasters expect Florence to still be a major, dangerous hurricane by the time it reaches North Carolina or thereabouts. There is a chance strong upper level winds could weaken Florence just before it reaches shore, but that won't matter much.
Sure, weakening, if it happens, will reduce wind damage somewhat. But the principal threat from Florence, and any other landfalling hurricane for that matter, is a coastal storm surge and inland flooding.
Weakening might or might not happen, but either way, coastal areas will see severe storm surges. Florence is also still expected to slow down or stall once it gets inland a bit, which will trigger massive amounts of rain with potentially catastrophic flooding.
People in the Carolinas are already preparing for this mess, as well they should be. Things are not looking good.
HURRICANE HELENE
Helene is expected to be comparatively well behaved.It's way out over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, with top winds of about 85 mph. Happily, Helene is expected to turn toward due north, far away from any major land areas. Once it goes north Helene will weaken and die by next week over colder North Atlantic waters. Buh-bye!
WILDCARD ISAAC
Hurricane Isaac, with top winds of 75 mph, is expected to strengthen, at least temporarily as it heads due west toward the Lesser Antilles islands and eventually the Caribbean Sea. Forecasters are prett confident that Isaac will keep heading nearl due west, but nobody can agree on whether it will strengthen or weaken, or when any of those trends might happen.
Isaac is small in size, so it's prone to rapid changes in intensity. Many computer models have it weakening to a tropical storm once it's in the Caribbean. Other models turn it into a monster. We'll see how that goes.
On top of all this, Hurricane Olivia is still threatening Hawaii in the Pacific Ocean. And a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico might or might not develop into something in the coming days.
Busy satellite map of the Atlantic. Click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see. From left to right: Mass of clouds over Midwest is former Tropical Storm Gordon The yellow X is a disturbance that's not expected to amount to much. Then we have Florence, then soon-to-be Tropical Storm Isaac, then Tropical Storm Helene near the African coast.
You'll have to forgive me, but this blog will be mostly about tropical storms and hurricanes for awhile as the peak of hurricane season has hit with a vengeance.
It was supposed to be a quiet year for hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, but for the time being, it's most certainly not.
There's all kinds of things to talk about. The eastern Pacific Ocean is a mess, too, with tropical storms and hurricanes buzzing around.
So let's get to it with our Saturday update:
EX-TROPICAL STORM GORDON
As I expected, the remains of Tropical Storm Gordon is causing a LOT more trouble than it did when it was an actual tropical storm along the Gulf Coast several days ago.
The former Gordon is dumping horrible amounts of rain in the Midwest, and this trend will continue big time today. A weather front associated with ex-Gordon is spreading downpours into the already soggy Middle Atlantic states too. This is bad, because that could be setting the stage for cataclysmic flooding if Hurricane Florence comes along later next week. (More on that in a minute.)
Four to eight inches of rain is expected today in much of this region, which has had repeated bouts of downpours over the past few weeks. Flooding is basically inevitable, and it could easily become severe and life threatening.
As noted yesterday, Ex-Gordon will actually be good for us here in Vermont. Forecasters are hopeful that it will dump one to two inches of rain on the drought landscape of central and northern Vermont Monday and Monday night.
The storm could also cause some gusty winds along the west slopes of the Green Mountains. That might cause a couple branches and maybe an isolated power failure or two, but with the rain, it will be worth it.
HURRICANE FLORENCE
As noted yesterday, high upper level winds did a number on Hurricane Florence, reducing it to a sloppy mess of a tropical storm with top winds of only 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Florence this morning. After being torn into a mess by upper level winds over the past couple of days, the storm is now looking more symmetrical, a sign that it will soon restrengthen, possibly rapidly.
Strong thunderstorms near the core of the storm are growing, and Florence is getting more organized again. It will almost certainly be a hurricane again by tomorrow.
Florence is heading westward into a zone with light upper level winds and hot ocean water. This is a perfect environment for hurricanes and Florence is expected to intensify quickly.
It could even achieve Category 5 status - the strongest and most dangerous hurricane type possible.
Which puts the East Coast in the United States in peril. Florence has certainly been unpredictable, but at the moment, all guidance wants to push Florence toward the East Coast. It's still impossible to know whether it will plow ashore or curve to the north and miss the United States for a close miss.
If it does crash ashore, nobody is sure where. The first guess right now is somewhere near the Carolinas but that's iffy. If it does threaten the United States, it won't be until near the end of this coming week. Stay tuned on this one, because it has the potential to turn into another hurricane nightmare for the United States.
Even after its winds die down, the risk for torrential rains on saturated soil makes me too nervous to think about
By the way, nobody has any idea whether Florence will have any effects here in Vermont.
TROPICAL STORM HELENE
This time of year, disturbances come off the west coast of Africa and then move westward into the open Atlantic. Often, a few days after they leave Africa, these disturbances become tropical storms or hurricanes.
It's very rare that a disturbance will turn into a tropical storm almost immediately after leaving Africa, but Tropical Storm Helene has done just that. It's still only got winds of 45 mph, but Helene is expected to strengthen rapidly into a hurricane.
The good news is early indications are the Helene will curve to the north far out over the Atlantic Ocean and miss most populated areas. Of course, we originally thought Florence would do that, so it's worth it to keep a watch on Helene.
This one really bears watching. It's expected to move pretty much due west over the next five days and approach the Lesser Antilles Islands in about five to six days as a hurricane. From there, it's anybody's guess, but this one could threaten ultimately threaten places like Puerto Rico again. (ugh!) and possibly the mainland United States.
It's too soon to speculate, but this could be a worrisome one. There is plenty of time for it to decide to miss land, so we don't have to panic over Isaac yet.
HURRICANE OLIVIA
Meanwhile, in the Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Olivia is spinning way out there with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph as of this morning. It's slowly weakening, but still could approach Hawaii early next week, so we'll have to watch that.
There's good agreement among computer forecasting models that Nate will come ashore over or near southeastern Louisiana, but the wild card is how strong it will be when it gets there.
The next American city to get slammed in this terrible hurricane season of 2017 might be New Orleans.
It's inevitable that Nate will hit the United States somewhere along the Gulf Coast over the weekend, but there are big questions on the exact path and especially the strength of Nate once it reaches the U.S.
Maximum sustained winds with Nate were 45 mph early this morning, which isn't too intense, but the storm should strengthen fairly rapidly over very warm waters north of Nicaragua today.
Nate will head north, and how the storm interacts with land when it passes over or near Mexico's Yucatan peninsula tonight will greatly determine how fierce a storm Nate will be once it reaches the United States.
If the land interaction seriously disrupts Nate's core, it won't have time to get its act together and, in a best case scenario, not even get to full hurricane strength. However, if Nate stays organized, or somehow misses the Yucatan altogether, it could strengthen rapidly into a dangerous powerhouse.
Hurricane forecasters are generally better at predicted a hurricane's path than they are at pinpointing its future strength. That's the nature of the science.
After dealing with Category 4 and 5 hurricanes this year, Category 1 doesn't seem so bad, yet it is. Up to a foot of rain might fall along the Gulf Coast in the path of Nate, and storm surges will very likely batter the coastline.
One hopeful piece of news is that Nate will be moving right along, so it won't rain heavily in New Orleans or elsewhere for a long time. It won't be like Hurricane Harvey, which pretty much stalled out over East Texas for days, which, as we all remember, caused immense floods.
Aftermath of severe flash flooding in Barre, Vermont in May, 2011. There remains a flash flood risk in Vermont and most of the rest of New England Monday, but let's hope it doesn't get as bad as in this photo.
The flood watch zone extends through much of New York, and from New Jersey up through all but southeastern New England.
This potential flood alert zone includes northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, all of Vermont, all but eastern New Hampshire and the all of Maine except a zone within roughly 40 miles of the coast
Not every town in this zone will get a flash flood today or tomorrow, of course, but some storms will repeatedly bulleye some towns and regions, resulting in flash floods.
Yesterday, I noted there would be some adjustments to the forecast position and timing of the strongest storms and sure enough there are.
Broadly, the forecast is on track. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has at least a slight risk of severe thunderstorms today along the entire western half of the Appalachian chain.
We're still expecting strong and severe thunderstorms to develop in New York State this afternoon, but they'll move a little faster toward the east than I thought yesterday.
This puts Vermont in play for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening, especially the western half of the state. (Had the storms come through later, after daytime heating had ended, the storms would have been weaker.
The upshot is across northern New York and Vermont, there could be some strong, damaging winds and torrential rains with the storms this afternoon and evening. The best shot of severe weather in Vermont is probably toward evening.
The only thing that could limit severe weather is that temperatures don't cool all that much with height. (That's called the lapse rate and would increase instability in the atmosphere.) That could get in the way of a lot of storms forming, which means this evening wouldn't be that big a deal.
But don't count on such a reprieve.
As the National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont notes, there are plenty of examples when conditions are like today's: A so-so lapse rate, but relatively strong upper level winds, hot and humid conditions and an incoming weather disturbance that have touched off a lot of severe storms. So beware.
And we ain't done after this evening.
I broader chance of severe thunderstorms exists in New England Monday. The flash flood threat rises Monday afternoon almost regionwide, too.
If enough sun breaks through for a time Monday morning, the storms in Vermont and eastern New York could quickly become severe by afternoon. At this point I think the biggest risk of severe thunderstorms, mostly with damaging winds, would be across the eastern half of Vermont, western New Hampshire and western Massachusetts.
I actually wouldn't be totally surprised if there were a brief tornado spin up in western or central Massachusetts.
The broader threat remains localized flash floods on Monday. The air in the Northeast has far more moisture in it than normal, and the deep moisture extends high up into the atmosphere.
That means any storms that do form could contain torrential rains that come down at a rate of one to two inches per hour.
Here in Vermont, the threat of severe storms might diminish during the course of the afternoon, but there will probably still be thunderstorms around with those torrential downpours.
Since the parent cold front is moving so slowly and the air flow is parallel with this weather disturbance, we'll get into that dreaded "training" that I've referred to in past spells of flash flood threats.
As a reminder of what training is, thunderstorms often form into a line. These lines usually move generally west to east perpendicular to the orientation of the line. That means any one spot would only get a thunderstorm for an hour or less. No biggie.
When training happens, thunderstorms within the line move parallel to that line, which often stalls out. The effect of this is one thunderstorm after another moves over the same spot, like a long line of box cars on railroad tracks.
This can last for a few hours, and can result in six inches or more of rain falling in that time, leading to a local flash flood.
Tropical Storm Matthew is still disorganized over
the Lesser Antilles as of Wednesday, but is
forecast to consolidate and strengthen.
As expected, Tropical Storm Matthew formed near the Lesser Antilles this morning.
Even though it has barely formed and is still disorganized, it's got sustained winds of 60 mph.
As it consolidates itself, it will likely strengthen into a hurricane as it initially heads westward into and through the Caribbean Sea.
It will be going over very warm water, record warm, in fact, so that's one big factor that favors strengthening.
There is potential Matthew, my namesake storm, could affect the East Coast, but before you panic, I'd hold off. The future path of this thing is highly uncertain from the point at which it gets to a position south of Hispaniola or Cuba.
It'll turn northward. Many of the forecasting computer models have a sharp northward turn, but when Matthew decided to head north is really open to question.
If it turns north sooner than expected, Matthew would slide east of Florida and probably head north out to sea, or at least far enough off the coast to not be a terrible thing for the East Coast.
OR, it could go east of Florida and then go directly north into New England from there, which would be really bad.
OR, if it turns north a bit laterit could smack right into Florida and cause big trouble there, then ride up along the East Coast as a weakening but still dangerous and flood-producing tropical storm,
OR if Matthew turns north even later than expected, the threat would be along the Gulf of Mexico.
So at this point, it's anybody's guess, so I suppose we'll all have to stay tuned, wait and see if Matthew will be disaster, or just another tropical puff of wind that evaporates before anything bad happens.
Cyclone Chapala last week, left, and Cyclone Megh, now, right seem like identical twins in the Arabian Sea.
Last week, we talked about rare Cyclone Chapala, which became the first tropical storm of hurricane strength to strike the coast of Yemen.
As expected, Chapala caused a huge disaster, mostly through flooding. Yemen is normally arid, and Chapala dropped the same amount of rain in a couple days as normally falls there over several years.
You do get the occasional cyclone (hurricanes as we call them in the good ole US of A) in the Arabian Sea, but not often. And they tend not to threaten to make landfall with any degree of huge strength.
But this year is different. This new cyclone, named Megh, if it indeed makes it to Yemen, might not be a full strength hurricane, but it will cause havoc by bringing lots more rain to a desert region already strangely saturated by the previous Cyclone Chapala.
Socotra was being battered again Sunday by this new Cyclone Megh as it travels towards Yemen, so things will only get worse.
Chapala and Megh were encouraged to develop by record high water temperatures in the Arabian Sea. Tropical cyclones are more likely to thrive the warmer the water gets.
A number of other factors are probably also contributing to the twin Arabian Sea cyclones, including global weather pattern called the Madden Julian Oscillation,which is an area of moisture and instability that often slowly circles the equatorial globe. When the MJO is in certain locations, it can encourage tropical storm development.
My guess is global warming contributed, but is not the only reason for the high Arabian Sea temperatures that contributed to the double cyclone disaster. Plus, there was just some bad luck involving weather conditions that favored tropical storm development.
As is the usual case, global warming could well be making what would have been a bad situation in Yemen worse.
It's possible a tornado could do this kind of damage this week somewhere in the middle of the country, but we can hope that any tornadoes that form are out in open country and miss towns.
The nation's most significant outbreak of tornadoes, big hail and severe thunderstorm winds so far this season is almost sure to develop this week.
Actually, large parts of the country, in a line from Texas to Nebraska on east to the East Coast will have the threat of some type of severe weather at some time during the next few days.
From my perspective, it's interesting to try to thread the needle between overhyping things and being complacent right before a pretty big outbreak of bad weather.
On one hand, as Dennis Morrisseau outlined inthe Gawker weather blog The Vane, there's a lot of screaming and yelling and pulling hair among the weather media and some of us weather geeks online
As bad as the Super Outbreak of April 27, 2011 when zillions died in tornadoes!!!! Zillions more across the nation at grave risk and we're all going to die this week of being blown away in unprecedented EF20 tornadoes!!!!!!!!! (Editor's note: There's no such thing as anything more powerful than an EF5 tornado)
So, reality check. Calm the hell down, will ya?
This tornado and severe storm outbreak will NOT be as bad as ones that happened on and around the April 27, 2011.That episode spun off something like 200 tornadoes that killed 313 people - a true, tragic, massive disaster.
While there's a chance that a couple neighborhoods could be totally trashed in this outbreak, which of course is bad news, this won't rise to the level of 2011.
And yes, technically, tens of millions of people are "at risk" of damaging and dangerous severe weather. However, for the overwhelming majority of these tens of millions of people, all they have to do is pay attention to forecasts and warnings, and get indoors when severe weather approaches.
A few of these people might end up cowering in basements as a tornado rips apart their houses above them, but for most people, the damage will be limited to maybe a brief power failure, a branch broken from the tree outside, or a little hail dent or two in Toyota Corolla parked in the driveway.
It's too bad we still can't predict the exact path of tornadoes more than a few minutes ahead of time.
On the other side is complacency. Some people hear a tornado warning, yawn, then go back to watching "The Big Bang Theory." And then complain bitterly and selfishly when the repeated tornado warnings pre-empt "The Big Bang Theory."
Or worse, when a warning is issued and the meteorologists tell you to go hide in the basement, people go outside to look for the funnel. Or even worse, get in their car and chase the damn tornado, even though they have no experience doing that and such a chase could be fatal.
After you watch this video of the ultimate stupidity, "Let's go for a leisurely walk amid falling baseball sized hailstones!" I'll get into the specifics of where, generally, and how extensive the severe weather might get.
Early this morning, a lone severe thunderstorm managed to pop up and roam across southeastern Kansas. That's the opening salvo.
A few, relatively isolated thunderstorms could get going this afternoon in and around Missouri, Iowa and Indiana today amid a general zone of showers, thunderstorms, rain and downpours. The tornado threat is quite low, but if one forms, the most likely area is southeastern Kansas. Several more spots will see some big hail and potentially damaging winds.
The real show starts tomorrow in Iowa, western Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma and maybe into parts of north Texas.
The forecasters at NOAA's Storm Prediction Center at this point are thinking the severe storms in this zone will be kind of widely scattered and certainly won't hit every place in this zone. But a few of the supercell storms that do form could be real doozies.
They'll grow explosively from just a cloud to a rotating supercell seemingly in minutes. Some of these supercells could spin off possibly a pretty strong tornado or two, a few weaker tornadoes, some gigantic hail and of course the ever present strong, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts.
The most active day will probably be Thursday and the focus will probably be in and around southern Wisconsin, Illinois, down the Mississippi Valley and through Arkansas, Missouri, Louisiana and northeastern Texas, says the Storm Prediction Center.
There will probably be a hodgepodge of supercell thunderstorms out ahead of a cold front with the risk of tornadoes, and a line of bad storms just ahead of that cold front. Those storms, some severe, will move east into the Ohio Valley Thursday evening and night.
With the risk of tornadoes and other thunderstorm damage in this rather heavily populated area of the country, people will want to pay attention to forecasts and do what reputable forecasters tell you to do.
In other words, don't panic, but if you happen to get a tornado warning where you live and work, take shelter.
The worst of the storms tend to happen around the evening rush hour. If you're ready to drive home from work but there's a supercell or squall line close by and heading your way with big hail, strong winds or even a tornado, it's best not to drive home. Wait it out, wait until the worst of it goes by, then go home when it's safer.
On Friday, the threat of severe storms shifts to the Mid-Atlantic coast, from Georgia, up through the Carolinas and as far north as New Jersey.
There's the risk of more severe weather in the middle of the country possibly next weekend or next week as the weather pattern has evolved into a classic spring time one.
Which is good in terms of widespread mild temperatures but bad if you don't like rambunctious thunderstorms in the middle of the country.
As expected, a huge tornado outbreak has hit the Midwest, so far especially in Illinois and Indiana.
Aerial view of severe
tornado damage Sunday
in Washinton, Ill.
At least four people have died so far in the twisters, and there's widespread property damage. As of 6:30 p.m. EST, there have been at least 77 reports of tornadoes, according to the National Severe Storms Prediction Center.
The tornado outbreak was still ongoing as of 6:30 p.m.. I fear the death toll and damage will rise. That's especially true because the forward speed of the tornadoes, 70 mph, doesn't give anyone much time to take shelter. And night has fallen, so you can't see them coming until they're right on top of of you.
The wild weather continues to trundle toward the east. I still expect we'll get in on the action here in Vermont and in surrounding states later tonight.
Don't worry, we won't get any tornadoes. In fact, there probably won't be that much thunder and lightning. The main threat will be a period of strong, gusty, maybe damaging winds as a squall line surges west to east across New York, Vermont and New Hampshire later tonight and before dawn Monday.
So you might expect to see some power failures and fallen trees. (Don't be surprised if your alarm clock doens't go off Monday morning when it's supposed to.)
It'll all clear out during the day on Monday, though winds will remain gusty. Look for a return to winter, too, with some occasional spells of snow showers starting Tuesday and going right into next weekend.
Hell, I'll take snow showers over the terrible tragedies going on in the Midwest today.
Here's a video of one of Sunday's tornadoes. This one is a particularly destructive twister in Washington Illinois.
