We Always Seem To Get At Least One Winter Storm In The Spring. Update Here

The latest, dreaded National Weather Service snow prediction map
for this storm.  Southern areas look to be under the gun but
northern areas will just get a glancing blow Click on the map
to make it bigger and easier to see. 

We're a few days into spring now, but par for the course, a good chunk of New England is in for a winter storm later today and tonight.

How hard you're hit will depend on where you are.

This storm will focus most forcefully on New York's Catskill Mountains, far southern Vermont, southern and central New Hampshire, southwestern Maine and western and central Massachusetts.  All these places are under winter storm warnings for an expected five to 10 inches of heavy, wet snow.

South of those places and in lower elevations away from the Catskills, a lot of rain will mix in, so it won't be that big a deal. North of the winter storm warning areas, the snow won't be as heavy.

After the crystal clear skies we had on Sunday, it has already clouded up in Vermont and most of the rest of New England as of 7 a.m. this morning. Those clouds will yield snow starting this afternoon and continuing on into tonight. In some of the warm valleys, including the Champlain Valley, precipitation might start as rain, but will quickly change to snow.

I know a lot of you are working from home, but those who aren't can expect some iffy road conditions at best this evening. That'll be especially true in southern Vermont and other areas that are under the winter storm warning.

Overnight, the areas under the warning could receive enough heavy, wet snow to break branches an power lines, so keep that in mind. (Spring snowstorms in New England usually feature heavy, wet snow, so there you go).

As it stands now, total accumulation looks to be in the six inch range, give or take, in the southern third of Vermont. Areas between Route 4 and Route 2 should see two to four inches, with lesser amounts possible in the Champlain Valley.

North of Route 2, it looks like this will amount to two inches or less, except in the Northeast Kingdom where totals might be closer to three inches.

If the storm is a tiny bit colder than forecast, snow totals would go up a little.

Late tonight, the snow will taper to scattered areas of freezing drizzle, says the National Weather Service.  Roads will probably be a little slick in many areas Tuesday morning.

This storm is a quick mover, and will be out of our hair by Tuesday. There might even be a little sun in the afternoon to start melting that newly fallen snow.

As mentioned yesterday, the rest of the week looks unsettled, with frequent chances of light rain or a little snow, but for now, none of these storms seem like they will be blockbusters.

Monday Morning Storm Update: Forecast Accurate So Far!

Additional snow forecast for today from the National Weather
Service. No big deal, except in far southern Vermont, where
another six inches or more could come down. 

Kudos to the National Weather Service and other meteorologists for so far very accurately predicting this huge winter storm affecting the Northeast.

If you're in far northern Vermont like me, you're asking, "What huge winter storm?"

Exactly.

As expected, the initial period of snow with a warm front from the parent low pressure system to the west faded as it moved northward through Vermont last night.  You could see the radar returns petering out last evening as the front ran of of gas and dissipated.

Burlington managed to get an inch of snow. Further north at my house in St. Albans, I got a whopping 0.2 inches of snow.  Further south, this warm front had a bit more oomph, with two to four inches of new snow generally falling in central Vermont, roughly between Route 4 and Route 2.

Meanwhile, as a new storm began to take over south of Long Island, the snow really picked up in central New England and the Hudson Valley of New York. In the southern tip of Vermont, Readsboro has already picked up 18 inches of snow. Parts of Saratoga County, New York are also closing in on a foot and a half of snow.

All this played out overnight as the NWS and most other meteorologists said they would.'

I have no reason to doubt the forecasts of how the rest of this will play out.  A dry slot has moved into the areas that had heavy snow, so it was just cloudy there early this morning with patches of light snow and freezing drizzle.

This state of affairs will continue for much of this morning before more moisture from the storm works in. That will make the snow pick up again.  The areas that got a foot or more of snow in far southern Vermont, eastern New York and some parts of central New England can expect another six inches of snow today, locally even more than that.

So yes, this is a blockbuster storm for many.

In central Vermont, around Rutland and White River Junction for instance, some of that new burst of moisture will come in, and that means there's a good potential for another two to four inches of snow.

That moisture will be working against some very dry air from Canada, and the battleground is in Vermont, at least partly.  Right now, it looks like the Canadian dryness will win out in areas north of Route 2, so little if any snow will fall during the day today there.  Meanwhile, in places like Montpelier, Middlebury and Warren, there will probably be some occasional light snow, no biggie.

The only potential surprise I see is if the surge of wet air from the main storm is more vigorous than forecast. If that happens, parts of central Vermont could see additional snow. I wouldn't hold my breath on that, though.

After this storm goes by, it looks like a series of cold fronts will zip on through between now and Friday, with each tossing down a handful of snowflakes to keep things at least vaguely wintry through the end of the week.  Some mountains, especially in the northern half of the state, could gradually accumulate several inches of snow by the end of the week from these little weather fronts.

Yet Another Overperforming Snowstorm Socking Vermont, Surrounding Areas

A long line of cars slogs through heavy, wet snow at Exit 19 of
Interstate 89 in St. Albans late this afternoon. 

Well, this is certainly turning into a doozy of a snowstorm for Vermont and adjacent areas, isn't it.

The first half of the storm, roughly into early afternoon, really hit east facing slopes of the Green Mountains.

Some areas definitely got more snow than expected. Some examples: Marshfield reported 16 inches, Walden, 15 inches, Moretown, 14 inches.

That's a lot of snow.

While it is still snowing along those eastern slopes, it's coming down lighter now. And it probably won't get particularly heavy in those places overnight.

There will be more accumulation there, but it won't pile up nearly as fast as it did earlier today.  The mountain summits, which got tons of snow the first half of today, will continue to pile it up fast, so we'll see some pretty amazing totals up there.

We're now in the second half of the snowstorm,  The wind has shifted and increased from the north and northwest, so it's the western slopes of the Green Mountains that are getting clobbered. Road conditions deteriorated fast late this afternoon in the Champlain Valley as the snow finally started to accumulate.

For several hours at least this evening, the snow will come down at a good clip even in the Champlain Valley. Elevation will still be a factor:

Forecasters think totals will range from as little as three inches along the immediate shore of Lake Champlain, to six inches or so a few hundred feet higher in elevation and a few miles inland from the lake, to a foot or more along the western slopes well east of Burlington -- towns like Underhill, Jericho, Huntington, Bakersfield, East Enosburg, all those types of places.

These are storm totals, taking into account what already fell plus what's expected to accumulate.

Who knows, the way this storm has been behaving, there might be more surprises with even deeper snow in these communities. After all, right along the western slopes, most forecasters think the snow will keep going into Saturday morning.

Winter storm warning have been extended westward to include all of Franklin and Chittenden Counties.

Basically, don't travel anywhere tonight. Also postpone travel until Saturday afternoon, when things will have definitely improved.

It's been bad enough all day. NECN reports roughly 100 crashes and slide offs in Vermont during the day. This includes a fatal crash on Vermont 22A and several multi-vehicle pileups. Interstate 89 near Montpelier was impassable for a time due to crashes.

Power failures with the heavy, wet snow have been a problem in some areas all day. At last check, around 6 p.m. there were about 1,250 homes and businessses without power across Vermont.

I have a feeling these numbers will go up through the evening as the heavy wet snow really starts to pile up in populated areas of Franklin, Chittenden and Addison counties. Gusty winds now blowing aren't helping. If anything, those winds will increase overnight.

At least the snow will turn more powdery as we go through the night, so the chances of further heavy, wet accumulations will go down.

It's still supposed to be cold Saturday. After a mild-ish Sunday, it will be cold again Monday and Tuesday. The late week still promises to turn at least somewhat warmer. Long range forecasts are iffy, but many forecasters are dangling the prospect of highs in the 50s a week from today.

I'll believe it when I see it.

Vermont Snow Really Piling Up On Hills. Deeper Valleys Not So Much -- Yet

Not as much snow in many Vermont valleys as feared this morning,
but the snow is on the way. Updated National Weather Service
forecast map still shows more than six inches coming in the
yellow and orange areas, three to five inches, generally in
the blue. Snow accumulations still look really dependent on elevations

1 p.m. FRIDAY STORM UPDATE

So far today, the snowstorm is behaving largely as expected, although there are some picky details that are altering things a bit.

As expected, the lowest elevations are getting a rain/snow mix. Web cams in the Champlain Valley, for instance, show little if any accumulation.

Go up just a couple hundred feet in elevation, and it's sticking.

Run uphill another couple, or few hundred feet, and the snow is sticking to the roads. Web cams out of Berlin, Vermont showed a snow covered, slippery Interstate 89 at that relatively high elevation.

The web cams also show sagging trees under the weight of the heavy, wet snow, so it looks like power failures will be an increasing problem as we go through the day into tonight.  We were closing in on 3,000 outages or so as of shortly before 1 p.m. in Vermont.

Those outages will spread to new areas as it gets colder later today and this evening. Rain/snow mixes in the lowlands will change to all snow, and the trees and lines will get weighted down there, as well.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington added Washington and Caledonia counties to the winter storm warning, as more snow than expected seems to be coming down in those areas. Especially in the higher elevations.

There's already some relatively impressive snow totals out there so far in the mid and high elevations. By noon, Cabot had accumulated nine inches, and Middlesex had eight inches. Lots of places had two to five inches.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Storms like the one currently harassing us Vermonters have a high bust potential, as noted yesterday, and here we go with that.

The good news for most of us who have to get to work is, this Friday morning isn't nearly as bad as we thought it would be last night.

Even so, the precipitation became heavier just in time for this morning's rush hour. Which the National Weather Service in South Burlington said would happen.

So road conditions did deteriorate as we were headed to work this morning. On my trip from St. Albans to Burlington at around 8 a.m., light rain had just changed to heavy wet snow, but the road wasn't snow or slush covered - yet.

The bad news (or more good news if you're a die-hard winter freak) is most of us still have a BUNCH of snow on the way.  Yes, even in the valleys.

Overnight and early this morning, it has been snowing in the mid and high elevations, while valleys have had a cold, light rain, or a mix of light, wet snow and rain.   As of 6 a.m. roads in the Champlai Valley were good, as temperatures hovered a few degrees above freezing. Elsewhere in Vermont, it depends on where you are. Roads are good to bad, depending on elevation.

The morning will continue with the mix of rain and snow, with all snow above 1,000 feet. You'll probably notice in the valleys that it will often be more likely rain when the precipitation is lighter, and snow when it gets heavier. That's the nature of the beast.

It now looks like the most "interesting" part of this storm comes in late this afternoon and tonight. The nor'easter will strengthen as it moves, well, northeastward into the Maine coast.

When this happens, there is often added lift, or rising motion in the air to the west of the storm. Rising air encourages precipitation, and we in Vermont will be west of the storm. So precipitation will start to come down more heavily later today. 


Wet snow falling in Winooski, Vermont this morning. It was warm
enough at the time that it was not sticking to the road.

At the same time, north winds will be strengthening as the storm deepens, and that will pull down some colder air from Canada. Everybody in Vermont and northern New York will transition to snow.

The mountains still look like they will get blasted. The western slopes of the Green Mountains, the summits, the Northeast Kingdom and parts of north-central Vermont north of Route 2 will get six to 12 inches, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.  All of those spots are still under a winter storm warning until noon Saturday.

The Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley of New York can also expect six to 12 inches. Some mountainous areas look like they will get as much as a foot and a half of snow, especially in the High Peaks of the Adirondacks and the ski areas and highest elevations in the northern half of Vermont.

Lower elevations, like the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys and maybe deeper river valleys like right along the Winooski River, will get three to eight inches of snow, says the NWS. Again, this will be really dependent on elevation, with amounts rapidly increasing the more uphill you go. All these areas are still under a winter weather advisory. 

Winds will really pick up by tonight, so the wet snow and the wind will weigh down trees and power lines. Expect at least some power outages across the state overnight and Saturday morning. There could be quite a few outages, if things get bad.  Gusts will reach 40 mph in many spots. Roads will be lousy overnight and Saturday morning.

Remember, wet snow on roads is even more slippery than the powdery stuff. Slush is deceptive. It's almost always is worse than it looks.

The snow will become more and more confined to the western slopes of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks during Saturday morning then finally taper off.

Some sun will appear in many areas during Saturday afternoon, but like I said yesterday, so what, it will still be wintry. Temperatures will make it into the low 30s at best in most locations, and that stiff north wind will continue.

Sunday still looks better, but that next Arctic front looks like it's moving a little faster. Clouds will creep in across the north after a sunny start Sunday, and there might be a light rain shower toward the end of the day as temperatures briefly make it into the 40s.

Monday and Tuesday still look miserably wintry, windy and cold with subfreezing highs and lows in the unseasonable single numbers and low teens. A temporary warming trend still looks to arrive during the second half of the week, and that will melt some of the new snow, at least in the valleys.

Thursday Evening Update: Fine Tuning Messy Vermont Winter Storm Forecast

The National Weather Service in South Burlington updated
their snow forecast map this afternoon. More of the area would
get more than six inches of snow than in the earlier map.
(Yellow is six inches of more. Dark orange and red is over a foot.
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, and surrounding NWS offices, have spent this cloudy Thursday afternoon fine-tuning their forecasts for this messy winter storm that's coming in later tonight. It will last into Saturday, with a lull of sorts Friday afternoon.

(Pardon any typos: I had to crank this one out fast because of a busy evening schedule.)

What follows is how the National Weather Service thinks this will play out. But remember, temperatures are marginal, so there is still a bust potential.

There might be more snow than expected, or less, depending upon if the temperature during much of this thing is a degree or two warmer or colder than expected.

The nor'easter was soaking New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland and environs with a soaking, flood-threat rain late this afternoon. The leading edge of the precipitation was also approaching southern Vermont around 4 p.m. today.

The precipitation will overspread the area tonight, and that's when it gets tricky. It'll be snow in the upper elevations. With that in mind, there's a winter storm warning for the entire Green Mountain chain, the Northeast Kingdom, parts of north-central Vermont and the Adirondacks.

Snow there late tonight and early Friday will come down hard, and the roads will get very nasty very fast. Elsewhere, it looks like a rain/snow mix, trending to snow in many areas early Friday morning.

When the precipitation comes down the hardest early Friday, that's when the first half of this one-two punch storm will most likely bring snow, even in the Champlain Valley. It's unclear if it will go to all snow or a mix everywhere in the Champlain Valley, but I'm thinking at least some accumulationg snow.

To be safe, expect a tricky Friday morning commute pretty much everywhere. Wouldn't you know, the worst and heaviest snow looks like it wants to come through perfectly for the morning commute.

There is a winter weather advisory for the valleys late tonight through Saturday to cover the periods of snow.

It looks like there will be something of a lull in the precipitation during the later morning and afternoon Friday. There still will be light rain and snow around. Some areas that will have had a burst of snow early Friday will go over to light rain, but the higher elevations will stay snow.

A second moderate to locally heavy precipitation will come in after dark Friday night and continue into Saturday. The mountains will continue to pick up snow. Pretty much everybody that will see some rain Friday will go over to snow.

As it looks now - again this could easily change - another one to three inches of snow could accumulate in the Champlain Valley with much more the higher up you go.  If you can postpone travel plans until Saturday afternoon, do that.

Total accumulations look like they will be really impressive in the northern and central Adirondacks with 12 to 18 inches expected. The high elevations of the Green Mountains, especialluy north, look to have something similar.

Mid elevations, including places like Montpelier, Barre, Morrisville and the valley floor in Stowe could get as much as four to eight inches out of this storm. The Champlain Valley perhaps will get two to six inches total, the most north toward St. Albans.

Much of this snow will be wet, and strong winds will develop, so there remains a risk of power failures with this.

Snow will taper off Saturday and some sun might break out in the mid and late afternoon. Don't expect much melting, though as temperatures stay at or below freezing for most of us with a gusty cold northwest wind.

Sunday looks awesome for winter sports with that fresh, deep snow cover in the mountains. Highs then will reach the 40s in the valleys and 30s in the mountains under sunny skies.

It still looks like more snow showers, then mid-winter cold Monday and Tuesday - highs below freezing again for most of us. A warming trend looks like it might start midweek. Fingers crossed!

Tuesday Update: Today And Tonight's Winter Storm About To Strike

Tuesday morning's National Weather Service forecast map. Darker orange areas
get the most snow, around a foot, if this map comes to pass
Blue and yellow areas get the least snow and sleet, around 5-6 inches.

As of mid-morning Tuesday, clouds were lowering, thickening and turning darker as the well-anticipated winter storm is now on our doorstep.

The forecast hasn't changed too much since last evening's updates, but there's still a high bust potential in the predictions.

THE DETAILS:

The front part of the storm is pretty certain. Snow will spread from southwest to northeast across Vermont between 1 and 5 p.m today. When the snow hits, it'll go from just flurries to fairly heavy snow quite quickly, at most within an hour or two.

So, if you see flurries start in your location and think you'll leave work at that point to beat the heavier snow and the slick roads home, it won't work, unless you live less than five minutes from where you live. Snowfall rates in this first initial heavy band will probably be one to two inches per hour, with locally higher amounts.

That's pretty impressive, and is close to the heaviest snow rates possible in this neck of the woods. The National Weather Service in Albany suggests there's a slim but real possibility of thunder snow with this initial band as far north as far southern Vermont. We'll see.

Don't let the chilly temperatures this morning fool you. There will be plenty of warm air aloft for this, so mixed precipitation definitely enters the picture. And temperatures will slowly and steadily rise now through Wednesday morning, from the single numbers this morning to low 30s by Wednesday morning.

Forecasters are also sure that sleet will follow the snow this evening from southwest to northeast across at least a portion of Vermont. That's where the bust potential in the forecast comes in.

The last bit of sun glow in the southeastern sky over St. Albans,
Vermont this morning as the next winter storm approaches.
Look for plenty of snow and sleet starting this afternoon. 

As we said yesterday, the main storm is going by to our west, while another storm forms along the Northeast U.S. coast.

When that coastal storm gets going, it'll cut the northward progress of the sleet off at the pass. But where will that be?

Where the northward advance of the sleet stops depends entirely on how fast and how strongly the coastal low develops. If forecasters are off by just a tiny bit, the current forecasts will be wrong. How wrong at this point is anybody's guess.

At this point, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is thinking the sleet tonight will get as far north as the central Adirondacks and very roughly up to Route 2 in Vermont. North of that, the thinking is precipitation through the whole storm will be almost exclusively snow, with just the chance of a few brief ice pellets thrown in overnight.

Of course, when and where the sleet comes in depends on much accumulation we'll get.  In places where little or no sleet falls, the snow accumulation will obviously be the most. Those places look like it will be about a foot by Wednesday.

Here's where that is most likely: The thinking remains the big winners in the snow department for New York will be the St. Lawrence Valley and  a few places in the Adirondacks.

In Vermont, the deepest accumulations will be way up in northwestern Vermont in places like North Hero, Alburgh, St. Albans and Highgate. That's the third time this winter a big storm dumped the most snow in these locations. More often than not, far northwestern Vermont misses out on the biggest snow accumulations.

The far northern Green Mountains also look like they will be snow winners.

Southern Vermont is at risk for freezing rain with this, too.  I would say freezing rain could get as far north as Route 4, but again, this could be off by a fair amount. Far southern Vermont could get enough freezing rain to ice up trees enough to break a few branches and power lines.

Strong winds are still expected to be a factor along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, especially in central and southern Vermont. Winds there could gust to or over 50 mph. That also could bring down a few trees and power lines, especially in areas that get freezing rain.

As noted yesterday, the strong downslope winds on the western slopes will cut down on precipitation.  Between the sleet and the drying effects of those winds, parts of Rutland and Addison counties, for instance, might only get four or five inches of snow and sleet. Even that might be generous.

The Connecticut River Valley from White River Junction south look like they will get six inches of snow or sleet - or less out of this.

As the coastal low takes charge tomorrow morning, mixe precipitation will go back to snow, then taper off across most of the area.

The bottom line is this afternoon's commute, and the one Wednesday morning will be tricky regionwide.

Across northern and central Vermont, the snow looks like it might pick up in intensity again for a time Wednesday afternoon and evening, which would prolong the risk of slippery roads in the region.

ELSEWHERE

This storm is creating a mess from the Midwest to Maine.  Lots of places have already gotten a ton of freezing rain and sleet, and that trend will continue the rest of today. ]

For the second time this month, Chicago was under an ice storm warning early this morning. Roads are a mess out there, with trees and power lines weighted down by a lot of ice. It's going to turn windy later today in Chicago, meaning, more icy trees and branches might come down.

Southern Michigan is experiencing the same problem as Chicago this morning. A lot of freezing rain with its associated damage is likely tonight in places like Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southern New York and parts of southern New England.

Further south, the rain is coming down in torrents. Flood watches and warnings extend from Tennessee to the southwestern corner of Pennsylvania.

It's been a particularly stormy winter nationwide, from Hawaii to Maine, and this is the latest assault. An active weather pattern is likely to continue through the end of the month, but of course, it's hard to tease out more than a few days in advance the particulars of how each storm will behave.

Vermont's Winter Storm Warning Continues, But As Usual, Some Forecast Adjustments

An updated storm forecast map from the National Weather Service in
South Burlington, Vermont. Generally speaking, central and
northern Vermont could still see eight to 12 inches of snow.
There will likely be less along the western slopes of the Greens.
If forecasts later today indicate more warming aloft, snowfall
totals might be cut back because more sleet would mix in. We'll see.

Vermont and most of the rest of the Northeast is still definitely on track for a messy winter storm Tuesday into Wednesday.

I'll focus on Vermont in this update, with some info on other areas of the Northeast further down.

As expected while we head toward this storm, there are some changes to the forecast. This involves mixed precipitation, and some interesting things along the west slopes of the Green Mountains.

As mentioned yesterday, this winter event consists of one storm heading through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes and then starting to fade. Another storm will form along the New Jersey coast and head into New England.

There will be plenty of moisture, so in most of the region, whatever comes from the sky will come down pretty hard. There will still be quite a bit of snow involved, but unfortunately, it's beginning to look like sleet and even some freezing rain might become more of a factor than first thought.

In their forecast discussion, the National Weather Service in South Burlington notes the upper level part of the storm going by to our west looks like it would hold together fairly well, and for a somewhat longer period of time than earlier forecasts.

That would allow more warm air to sneak in over Vermont aloft. It now looks like sleet will work its way north into at least central Vermont. If forecast trends continue,  at least a little sleeet would make it all the way to the Canadian border.

The mixed precipitation will be more of a factor the further south you go into Vermont. Everybody in the Green Mountain State will get a good thump of snow at the onset of the storm. Then chances of sleet or even freezing rain start to ramp up overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

I give it at least a 50/50 chance of some sleet, if not more, from Route 2 south. Sleet and possibly freezing rain is a given from Route 4 south. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has a very slight chance of freezing rain all the way to the Canadian border in Vermont, and a greater than 50 percent chance of freezing rain along the Massachusetts border.

Wind flow with this storm is going to be strong from the southeast.  The wind will go up the east slopes of the Green and White mountains and then downhill on the west slopes. That means south and east facing slopes of the Green Mountains will have the heaviest precipitation. Eastern slopes of the southern Greens could easily see a good 10 to 12 inches of snow and sleet with this storm.

Downhill flowing air tends to dry out, so precipitation will be lighter along the west slopes of the Green Mountains, and in parts of the Northeast Kingdom in the "shadow" of New Hampshire's Whtie Mountains.

While official forecasts still call for eight to 12 inches of snow and maybe sleet accumulation in most of central and northern Vermont, accumulations could easily be cut back to five or six inches in a narrow band along the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

This would include Rutland, Middlebury, the eastern suburbs of Burlington, and rural towns in eastern Franklin County. Parts of the Northeast Kingdom, including St. Johnsbury and Lyndonville, would also have the snow totals cut back.

Along those western slopes, the winds could get quite strong as the head downhill. A wind advisory for gusts of 50 mph is up for this area Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. The strongest winds would come through between 8 p.m. Tuesday and 3 a.m. Wednesday.

I wouldn't be surprised if some spots go well over 50 mph, with isolated gusts of 60 mph or more. So that spells trouble with a few trees and power lines.

That eight to 12 inch forecast in the northern half of Vermont might be cut back a bit if later forecasts indicate more sleet than current expectations. Expect a lousy commute Tuesday evening. Wednesday morning probably won't be a picnic, either.

The snow will taper off and become much lighter Wednesday. Some of the warmest valleys could see a few rain drops mix in, as temperatures go into the low and mid 30s. Snow showers will linger into Wednesday night with light accumulations.

Further south, this storm looks like it could spell really icy trouble, especially in southern Michigan, much of Pennsylvania, southeastern New York and into parts of southern New England. Travel will obviously be seriously hampered in these areas.

The worst hit areas are also going to have problems with trees, branches and power lines coming down Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Don't go to Pennsylvania and surrounding areas Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Another pretty substantial storm looks like it will hit us with more mixed precipitation and maybe plain rain Friday and Saturday, but we'll wait on more details before we get into that too much.

Vermont Snowstorm On Track; Big News Is Midwest Icebox

The latest snowfal prediction map for the region. The blue
in northern New York and Vermont depicts less snow,
around 5 inhes, while most of central and southern Vermont
can expect six to nine inches. 

Good Tuesday to you all!

I'll get into what's up here in Vermont first. (Spoiler: Snow, then cold.) Then I'll address the frozen elephant in the room, which is that intense Midwest and Plains Arctic blast that's making headlines.

HERE IN VERMONT

Light snow was falling here and there across Vermont and surrounding areas this morning, and that state of affairs should continue the rest of the day. That's coming from a fading storm coming in from the west.

Forecasters are still very confident a developing storm along the East Coast will spread moderate snow across Vermont later this afternoon, tonight and early tomorrow morning.

This still looks like a mid-sized, run-of-the-mill snowfall for the Green Mountain State. Most of the state should get four to ten inches out of this, with the least up in the northwest corner and the most in the high elevations and in eastern Vermont.

Winter storm warnings are up for most of Vermont, and winter weather advisories are in effect for western portions of the state.

It will be a powdery snow, so there's no worries about trees and power lines getting weighed down by heavy sludge. You'll need extra time to make it home this evening on the roads, and you'll need to leave early tomorrow morning for work and school because the roads won't be in great shape then, either.

You know the drill. You've done it plenty of times this winter.

That Arctic blast from the Midwest will start to come in on Wednesday.  Temperatures will slowly fall in the afternoon, and we're stuck in the ice box through Saturday.

As I mentioned yesterday, this cold wave will certainly be quite unpleasant in Vermont, but not nearly as bad as out west. I'll get into that in a moment.

The last half of the week will feature overnight lows from 0 to 15 below, depending upon whether you're in Vermont's banana belts or cold hollows. Highs will range from 0 to 15 above through the period. Wind chills could sink to as low as 30 below, especially Thursday.

A dramatic warmup still looks to be in the cards starting Sunday -- highs in the 30s! The forecast is a bit vague and uncertain beyond that. From this vantage point, Vermont looks like it will be relatively mild early next week, with risks of some snow, mixed precipitation and/or rain.

MIDWEST ICEBOX TO SET SOME RECORDS, BUT....

This credit union in Minot, North Dakota was
exaggerating things a bit yesterday. A sensor
broke in the sign, causing the wrong reading.
Still it was 19 below with a 45 below wind chill
in Minot this morning. 

The widely advertised intense cold wave has blasted into the middle of the nation, and they are feeling the chill big time.

In those rare instances when temperatures get into the minus 20s here in the Champlain Valley of Vermont, I really fall into a mode of dread. We should feel fortunate. High temperatures - Highs! today in northern Minnesota and northeastern North Dakota will be in the minus 20s.

It'll get into the minus 40s tonight.

Couple that with wind chills in the minus 60s and you know people are hibernating up there.

It's true this is probably the Midwest's most intense cold snap in a generation. It already is, in fact. There have been record low tempeatures in several cities and there will be more. On Sunday the was an unofficial report of an actual temperature getting down to 57 below in Cotton, Minnesota, which is close to the statewide record low of 60 below in 1996.

Minneapolis got below zero very early this morning and probably won't get above zero again until Friday morning. Lows Thursday morning could flirt with 30 below in the Twin Cities. Chicago could get into the minus 20s.

This is likely the worst cold wave in the Midwest since 1996.

The warnings to take care against the chill and be safe are well-placed. But to put it in perspective, if you want to avoid the hype, this cold snap will fall well short of the most intense, worst cold waves in U.S. history.

Cold waves of this magnitude are increasingly rare as global warming takes hold. Past cold waves make this one seem like just a cool, breezy day.

Some examples courtesy of The Weather Channel, which largely cited weather historican Christopher Burt:

The year 1899 featured what was probably the worst cold wave in U.S. history. It was 61 below in Montana and 2 below in Tallahassee, Florida. The nation had 45 states at the time, and all of them fell below zero.

A snow ball fight in Tallahassee, Florida during
the history cold wave of 1899. 

It was 16 below in Louisiana, 39 below in Ohio and 47 below in Nebraska, which still stand as the coldest temperatures on record in those states. It was 9 below in Atlanta. Parts of the St John's River around Jacksonville, Florida froze over and people walked out on the ice.

Ice floes emptied out of the Mississippi River into the  Gulf of Mexico.

So yeah, this cold wave is a piece of cake.

This cold wave won't last all that long. By the weekend. Temperatures across the ice box region will be near or above normal.

Minneapolis is expecting a high of 38 on Saturday, which would be 66 degrees warmer than the expected low on Thurday morning.

Past cold waves have lasted far longer than this. In the winter of 1935-36, the temperature stayed continuously below zero for 41 in Langdon, North Dakota.

In 1976-1977 the temperature stayed continuously below freezing in Burlington, Vermont for 52 days.

So yeah this cold wave is bad, but it could be so much worse. That's, ahem, cold comfort I realize, but take what you can get.

Back To Winter As Snow Alerts Go Back Up In New England

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont has this
best early guess for snowfall from the storm tonight and Tuesday
Areas shaded in yellow and orange, mostly in the higher
elevations, can expect more than six inches of new snow. 

12:30 PM UPDATE:

The onset of the precipitation is a little quicker than first thought. If it's not raining or snowing where you are as of early this afternoon, it will any minute now.

There are still no winter weather advisories or warnings in the Champlain Valley as of noon, because for now, forecasts are sticking with three inches or less.

Here's a BIG however, however.

There are some indications that a band of heavier precipitation might set up over or near the Champlain Valley Tuesday morning.

If that happens, the air will cool further and there could be a period of fairly heavy snow.

This is a maybe, maybe not scenario. It's hard to tell at this point if it will actually happen, so don't count on it. But since it's a possibility, I wanted to mention it.

If you live in the Champlain Valley, get up earlier than usual and peek out the window and check for updated forecasts. If we do get a snowy surprise, you'll want to leave earlier for school or work. If there's no unexpected extra snow, you can kick back and have an extra cup of coffee.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The way this month has been going, yesterday was an absolutely gorgeous beach day here in Vermont.

Yes, it was overcast, wet and damp, and temperatures stayed chilly-ish, hovering a few degrees either side of 40.

But it was the first warmer-than-average day, at least in Burlington, Vermont since November 8. That's 16 consecutive days of below normal readings, which I think is the longest stretch this year.

I hope you enjoyed it, because it's back to winter tonight and tomorrow. It won't get particularly cold, but it will get snowy. Only somewhat snowy in the warmest valleys, but wicked snowy up in the mountains.

Here's the deal: A storm which unleashed the first November blizzard since 1959 on parts of Kansas, Iowa and Illinois is headed toward the area around Buffalo, New York by this evening.  A new storm will get going somewhere near New York City then head up along the New England coast tonight. The storm near Buffalo will begin to fade, and the new coastal storm will take over as the main player.

Rain will break out across the region this afternoon. Any snow that falls at first will only come down on the tippy top of the mountains. But as the night wears on, the snow will advance downward in elevation, so that by dawn Tuesday, even the valleys will probably be getting snow.

This is a tricky forecast because the timing of when a particular spot goes from rain to snow tonight will determine how much accumulation results.

The scenario is subject to change, but right now it looks like the Adirondacks and central and southern Green Mountains will turn out to be the big winners. This area is under a winter storm warning, with accumulations of four to eight inches by Tuesday evening. The deepest snow will be at elevations of over 1,000 feet.

Northern Vermont away from the Champlain Valley looks like they're in for three to six inches of snow. The Champlain Valley will get anywhere from a slushy dusting to three inches of snow, with the most being up north near St. Albans.

The way the storm is setting up also means there will probably be some strong, gusty winds on the western slopes of the Green Mountains, especially from Addison County south. Gusts between late this afternoon and early Tuesday could easily reach 50 mph.

With all this wet snow and wind, power failures will be a good bet. Be ready tonight and tomorrow morning for such an event, especially in those areas that are going to be especially snowy and windy.

The storm's upper level support will sit and spin over us or at least nearby during the middle of the week, which will keep the snow showers going. The valleys could get another couple or few inches of wet snow out of this setup.

The mountains will be the big winners, with the Adirondacks and Green Mountains picking up a good foot or two of snow between now and Thursday.

This storm is also going to thump northern New Hampshire and much of Maine with close to a foot of snow Monday night through Wednesday.

At least we won't have any more subzero cold for at least the next 10 days. We'll take anything we can get, right?

Tuesday Evening Snow/Nor'easter Update Westward Jog, More Snow Vermont

I hope you like snow. Because you're going to get it.   

The National Weather Service has upt the ante for
the snowstorm expected Wedneday afternoon into
Thursday. Most of us can expect a solid six to 12
inches of snow with locally up to 20 inches
in the Southern Green Mountains. 

The expected track of Wednesday and Thursday's nor'easter has nudged a little bit westward according to computer forecasting models today, which means we can expect even more snow for Vermont than earlier forecasts.

I alluded to this westward shift in this morning's post, and that trend has continued this Tuesday afternoon. 

The winter storm warning this morning had covered all of Vermont except the far northwest corner. That winter storm warning has not been shifted westward to include the far northwest, including St. Albans and Alburgh and Grand Isle. 

The winter storm warning covers pretty much all of the Andirondacks in New York, too, as well as the New York side of the Champlain Valley.

National Weather Service forecasting centers throughout the Northeast have increased the amount of snow expected from this comimg very wet nor'easter, and some places are going to get buried. 

This is actually fairly common in March. It's still cold enough for snow, but the atmosphere is warming as we head toward spring. Warmer air can hold more moisture, and thus can dump more precipitation. If it's cold enough to snow,  you can get some whopping totals. 

The Capital District of New York is under the
gun with this upcoming storm, with a good
12-20 inch thumping there. Some of these
areas got 30 to 40 inches of snow in the
storm last Friday. 

You remember the three feet of snow in the mid-March storm last year. And we here in Vermont have had epic two foot plus storms in 2011, 1993 and other Marches. So, here we go. 

Not everybody in Vermont is going to get two feet of snow.  I'd say the vast majority of us won't. But a few places might.  

Places I think might join the 20+ inch club with this upcoming storm include the Green Mountains of southern Vermont, somewhat higher elevations of western and central Massachusetts, southwestern New Hampshire, and the Hudson Valley of New York below Glens Falls, especially in the high elevations just west of the river.   

Areas of New York just south and west of Albany got 30 to 40 inches of snow last Friday, and a lot of that remains on the ground. Those same areas could easily get 20 new inches out of this storm. Yikes! 

The exception to the more snow is expected than previously thought rule is southeastern New England, near the coast. With a more westward track for the storm, hugging the coast, it will be too warm for snow during most of the event. So it will be mostly rain there, especially east of Interstate 95. 

But they will have their problems in southeastern New England with high winds, battering coastal waves and such, all in an area left particularly vulnerable from the last storm. 

I still think some of this snow will be rather wet, and some areas of New England, including some of the warmer areas of Vermont, could see some power failures as tree branches snap under the weight of the snow.  The snow will be more powdery in higher elevations, especially across the Adirondacks, Green and White mountains. 

As far as timing goes, the snow in Vermont will spread south to north during the day Wednesday. It'll probably get to the Canadian border by mid to late afternoon, but not come down all that hard. 

Since temperatures will be near or just above freezing in valleys during the afternoon, I don't think the roads will be too bad, except in the higher elevations. 

It'll really come down Wednesday night. The snow will be starting to lighten up Thursday morning, but the roads will be a total mess. Plan on a lousy commute. Or don't drive to work at all. A lot of schools that planned to be open Thursday probably will end up being closed. 

As I mentioned this morning, the snow will keep going Thursday and Friday, and into Saturday across the North Country, especially along the western slopes and spine of the central and northern Green Mountains. 

The snowfall totals I described above just take us into Thursday evening. Several more inches of snow will fall, especially in the higher elevations after that. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to hear of an additional foot of snow in some of the Green Mountain ski areas, like Stowe and Jay Peak, between late Thursday night and Saturday afternoon. 

Skiers and riders who thought the glory of powder days were over for the season are surely gleeful that they were mistaken. 

Early hints suggest another nor'easter early next week will go too far south to affect most of Vermont, but that's not guaranteed. We still have to watch that one. 

What looks more likely is we will get a relatively brief blast of Arctic air next Tuesday through Thursday with lighter snows and temperatures more typical of January than March. But it's March in Vermont, what do you expect?

Snowstorm Now Beginning In Vermont; Might Be Bit Bigger Than First Thought

The National Weather Service in South Burlington,
Vermont has tweaked the expected accumulation
of snow from today's storm up slightly. Generally
six to 12 inches statewide. 

As of 9:15 a.m. Wednesday, snow was spreading southwest to northeast across New York State and was beginning to reach into Vermont.

This marks the start of what promises to be a pretty decent snowstorm across the Green Mountain State.

Total snow accumulations now look like they will be a bit more than first thought.

The storm causing this isn't a real big powerhouse and it's not that organized, either. But it does have plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture to play with. And it's causing quite a surge of warm air to ride over some cold air near the surface.

No wonders there's winter storm warnings extending from northern Kentucky through Maine. There's lots of snow and ice flying out there. This storm is wet enough so that flood watches are up in the warmer air over southeastern Kentucky and in West Virginia. There's also an ugly mix of snow and freezing rain from this extending from the Mid-Atlantic states to southern New England.

Here in Vermont, the latest estimates are that the southern and central parts of the state will get a good 8 to 12 inch thumping of snow, with up to 15 inches in some favored mid and high elevations in and near the Green Mountains. Think Ludlow, Weston, Londonderry, Plymouth, Cavendish, Mount Holly, Shrewsbury, that neck of the woods.

Off to the northwest, in the Champlain Valley, there will probably be a respectable six to 10 inches of snow out of this. It's possible that far southeastern Vermont could get a mix of freezing rain for a little while, but don't hang your hat on that just yet.

The snow as it begins is rather light, so you'll look out the window before noon and say, "Meh, so what? This is it?"

But, as all the forecasters have been promising, things will really pick up this afternoon. Snow will come down at a rate of an inch or more per hour, which isn't record breaking but still pretty damn impressive.

That rate of snowfall is heavy enough so that road crews will have a hard time keeping up with it. Plus visibility out there will be awfully crummy.  That's why so many schools are closed today. Understandably, nobody feels like hauling the kids from school to home in such heavy snowfall.

My husband opted to work from home today in part so he doesn't have to deal with the heavy snow on the roads. I hope you were able to do the same.

One thing that is preventing this storm from being a huge blockbuster is that this thing will be rocketing past us. It ain't going to linger, folks. (Interesting that this storm is coming on the 40th anniversary of the Great Blizzard of 1978 in New England. The 1978 storm DID linger around here, to devastating effect.)

Anyway, the heavy snow from this current storm will rapidly shut down overnight as the storm zips on up to eastern Canada.

As promised, tomorrow will be a great time to either enjoy a powder day on the slopes or shovel away the snow from your driveway. Highs will be in the teens in the mountains, 20s in the valley. Winds won't be all that ridiculous, either, generally 10 mph, gusting to 15 mph in the valleys, and just a little stronger than that in the hills.

That's actually different than in most decent size storms. They normally crank up and give us strong, biting cold winds the day after the heavy snow. Not this time.

If this snowstorm isn't enough for you, there are chances for even more snow. Just not that much. A pretty lame system Friday still looks like it could give us anywhere from one to five inches of new fluff.

There's still another smallish storm Sunday that could give us snow, rain or a mix. No promises, but some of the computer models are starting to trend colder with the Sunday storm. If that comes true, we'll get more snow, and less rain. Or even no rain at all. We'll see.

Tuesday Update: Yep, It's Still Going To Snow Tomorrow

The National Weather Service in South Burlington,
Vermont is still telling most of us to expect eight, nine,
ten inches of snow from tomorrow's expected storm.

As expected, winter storm watches in Vermont have been upgraded to winter storm warnings as it becomes even more certain we're in for a midsized snowstorm tomorrow.

Watches in much of the rest of New England will almost surely be upgraded to warnings later today.

Part of the storm will be fairly dramatic, with snowfall rates during Wednesday afternoon often reaching one inch per hour, or even a little more. That's not extreme, but that's pretty damn heavy snow.

The peak of the storm will come just ahead of, or during the late afternoon commute on Wednesday.

 If you can pull it off, try to work from home tomorrow. The roads during the morning won't be too bad, especially in northern Vermont where the snow probably won't start until mid or late morning. I imagine there might be some early school closings, too, which I'm sure will muck up your schedule.

However, there will certainly be problems with snow, low visibility and ice on the highways in the afternoon for sure.

The overall forecast scenario for this storm hasn't change at all, really. Hurray for consistency. Here in Vermont, we're still expecting a general five to 12 inch snowfall. The most will come down in the southern half of the state, the least to the northwest.

Forecasters are still thinking some mid and high elevations in south-central Vermont that really got hammered by Sunday's snow will be the big winners again. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we get reports of between 12 and 15 inches of snow in a few localized spots down there.

As noted yesterday, this storm will be zipping right along and will be pretty much out of our hair by early Thursday morning. Other than a few flurries, it won't snow at all Thursday, and daytime temperatures will be in the 15 to 25 degree range. The weather Thursday will be similar to Mondays  - not bad for snow shoveling, really.

Forecasters are still looking for a small system with limited moisture to scoot on through Friday with a little light snow.

There's still a lot of question marks for around Sunday, with some snow, rain or a mix possible. At this point, it doesn't look like whatever precipitation we get Sunday will be super heavy. And if it does get above freezing on Sunday, it doesn't look like that relative warmth will last long. It'll be back down to the seasonable 20s early next week.

A REALLY White Christmas Is Set For Vermont, Rest Of The Region

The National Weather Service in South Burlington,
Vermont is still forecasting a general four to eight inch
snowfall across Vermont on Christmas Day. A winter
storm warning is in effect. 

As of Sunday morning, it looks like the roads are getting cleaned up fairly well after the rain, freezing rain and snow of Saturday. That gets us a chance to do last minute stuff and travel before the next winter storm hits.

It's going to be a very, very white Christmas in Vermont. And this second half of December appears to be the opening weeks of what is increasingly looking like a harsh winter. We shall see.

It's certainly been somewhat harsh lately, with cold snaps and icy, snowy precipitation events coming fast and furiously for the past couple of weeks. And it's getting more harsh.

All that freezing rain, rain, followed by snow and rapidly falling temperatures late Saturday afternoon and evening caused lots of travel nightmares across much of Vermont. There were lots of slideoffs and accidents. Firetrucks couldn't even make it up a hill in Winooski to respond to problems.

OK, that's done. Now we're facing a Christmas Day winter storm warning for northeastern New York, northern Massachusetts and all of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. (Upgraded from yesterday's winter storm watch.)

Expect widespread accumulations of four to 10 inches across this region, with locally more as you head off into northeastern Maine.

This is all caused by storm that has laid down a stripe of snow across the central Plains and into the Ohio Valley. The storm will come out of the Ohio Valley and start getting into New England early Christmas morning.

From there, a nor'easter will rapidly form on the New England coast and take over before zipping on up into the Canadian Maritimes toward Christmas evening.

The snow will start after midnight tonight, so driving around this evening will still be OK. Christmas morning, not so much. The snow will taper off in the afternoon, so things might not quite as bad on the roads toward Christmas evening. However, you'll also have to contend with some blowing and drifting snow as winds pick up.

There's still ice on the trees in many parts of eastern Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, so the winds could knock down some more branches and power lines, but I don't think the problem will be too widespread. Luckily, the snow that comes with the Christmas storm will be light and powdery, so it will blow off tree branches rather than weigh them down further.

After this storm goes by the doors open for the long-advertised Arctic outbreak. It will get increasingly cold Tuesday, and be absolutely brutal Wednesday through Saturday a least. Look for highs barely getting to zero, if that, and lows in the teens below zero region wide. There will be some areas in the 20s below.

As noted yesterday, this cold will last awhile. It might moderate some, at least temporarily in about a week, but the overall pattern well into January favors colder than normal weather.   Yeah, as if we all love paying a billion dollars per second on our heating bills, right?

Whether this will be accompanied by any other substantial snowfalls is anybody's guess. On the one hand, the pattern well into January favors storm development along or off the Eastern Seaboard. On the other hand the Arctic air coming in from the north and west is so heavy and strong that it could easily keep any storms that do form well south and east of our region, so we would not get all that much snow.   We'll have to wait on that.

The lake effect snow machine will certainly go nuts for at least the next few days. Some areas of western New York, especially near and south of Watertown off of Lake Ontario, can expect three or four feet of lake effect snow, possibly locally even more than that, by Wednesday. Yikes!

Whether you like winter or not, we're going to get plenty of it. And whether or not you like winter, Merry Christmas!

Quick Friday Evening Update: Round Two Of Vermont Storm To Be Messier

A pleasant steady snow, fitting for the holiday season, fell on
Burlington, Vermont's Intervale Friday. Get ready for some
uglier winter weather starting Saturday. 

As I'm writing this, it's 6 p.m. Friday evening, and I trust a lot of you have made it home safely.  

We're nearing the end of the kinder, gentler Phase 1 of this two phase winter storm. Too bad we just can't stop at this. It's very Christmas-y out there.

That's true even though we had dozens of people slide off Vermont roads today amidst the snow. I'm sure in some cases it was nobody's fault, but there's a few of you out there that, ahem, have lived in Vermont for decades and still haven't figured out that ice is slippery.

Anyway, Friday featured a nice, light fluffy snow, and fairly calm winds. The snow has piled up on the trees and everything else, and it's very Currier and Ives out there.

But of course, we're talking Mother Nature, and she's going to destroy this idyllic scene. Or at least damage it. And she's still going to annoy us with ice and mixed precipitation on Saturday.

So far, we've generally gotten two to six inches of snow across most of Vermont. Burlington is closing in on six inches, but I just got home to my place in St. Albans, less than 30 miles north of Burlington, and I only have 2.1 inches of new snow. That's OK. Still pretty, and two inches of fluff is easy to shovel off the driveway.

The snow is tapering off, and will just come in light fits and starts tonight, and begin to mix with sleet overnight, too. That sets the stage for what could be a really ugly Saturday. Sorry.

The next, stronger wave of precipitation will sweep into Vermont Saturday morning and continue through the day. The anticipation stil is that the western half of the state will have sleet, freezing rain, then maybe a few hours of cold rain before things go back to snow in the afternoon or evening.

Many eastern areas might not get above freezing, which raises the alarm for quite a bit of ice accumulation from freezing rain. Most places east of the Greens will probably get only a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation. That makes the roads a dangerous skating rink, but not enough to bring down trees and power lines.

But a few places could still see a quarter to a third of an inch of ice accumulation, which could bring down some branches and power lines. Like I said this morning, nothing like the epic ice storm of 1998, but still not good.

At some point Saturday afternoon, colder air will start moving in, and the rain or ick will change to snow from west to east across the region. It's hard to say exactly when this will happen, but road conditions will rapidly deteriorate as this happens.

That's especially true in areas that go to a plain, cold rain west of the Greens earlier Saturday. I'm writing off the areas east of the Greens as a travel nightmare all day. In the Champlain Valley, there might, maybe be a late morning/early afternoon window in which we'll get just a plain, cold rain, and the roads won't be too bad if you have late breaking Christmas errands.

But the roads will rapidly get bad as rain changes to snow, and a lot of people might be caught out on the roads as they get super slippery super fast. Again, I'm not sure exactly what time this will happen Saturday afternoon or early evening, but beware.

Needless to say, winter storm warnings remain in effect through Saturday evening across Vermont. 

The snow will taper to flurries later Saturday night. Sunday - Christmas Eve - still looks quiet. But we're still looking at snow to redevelop late Sunday night and continue through much of Christmas Day.

I'm still thinking the Christmas snow won't be a blockbuster, but perhaps there will be one to six inches of snow, the least off to the northwest, the most in the higher elevations in southern Vermont.

On top of that, it still looks like it will start to turn brutally cold Tuesday or Wednesday, and this will last awhile. At least beyond Friday. Though by no means will this be the worst cold wave Vermont has ever endured, it probably will be the most intense and longest such Arctic outbreak since at least February, 2015, or February 2014.

That Big Messy Christmas Weekend Winter Storm In Vermont Just Got Bigger, Messier

Updated forecasts call for generally six to 12 inches of
new snow and ice over the region by Sunday morning.
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see.

I hope you've got a strong back and a strong constitution: The storm coming in today and Saturday for Vermont and surrounding regions looks like it'll be a nasty one.

At least nastier than we originally thought. On the big bright side, we're now guaranteed a white Christmas.

The National Weather  Service for the past 12 to 18 hours or so have been busily upgraded the winter weather advisories in Vermont to winter storm warnings, which now cover the entire state.

Expect a storm total six to 12 inches of snow, along with some ice. Ick.

Winter storm warnings are also up for much of eastern New York and southern and central New Hampshire. 

This storm is coming in two waves. The first is sort of easy-ish to forecast, but the second phase is a bear.

Let's break it down. A surge of moisture today is causing snow to break out. It was already snowing through central New York and southern Vermont before dawn today, and that will work its way north. Through the day and into the evening, expect a general three to five inches of snow for most of Vermont. (As usual, a few towns might get slightly less, and a couple of other towns will probably hit the jackpot and receive more, but you get the idea.)

That snow will taper to areas of snow flurries and freezing drizzle late tonight, in anticipation of very messy Round 2 on Saturday.

I'm as amazed as the National Weather Service in South Burlington that computer models earlier in the week had us at 50 degrees with rain on Saturday, now, this. By this, I mean a complicated mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and maybe rain on Saturday, with temperatures during the day near the 32 degrees.

What exactly will fall from the sky in any particular spot at any particular time in Vermont and surrounding areas is almost impossible to say. Forcasters are trying, but I think it's just best to go with the broad brush: Mixed precipitation on Saturday wherever you are. Could be freezing rain one minute the next, sleet a minute later, maybe some snow, maybe some cold non-freezing rain.

Overall, the worst of the ice will be in the eastern half of Vermont and into New Hampshire. There, the temperature is less likely to sneak above freezing for any time at all, so freezing rain will pile up on cars, trees and power lines.

Bad roads are the main concern with this, but there might be enough ice in a few spots in eastern and central Vermont, much of New Hampshire and into parts of New York and northern Massachusetts were some branches and electrical lines could snap under the weight of the ice. I don't believe this will be a devastating, multi-day disaster with power failures, but it will be inconvenient for some, for sure.

Ice will be a problem all the way into Maine and parts of the Maritime Provinces of Canada, too. Maybe also parts of southern Quebec.

All this slop will change back to snow Saturday night, with a few more inches of accumulation.  As I said, the grand total of snow, sleet and ice accumulation looks like it will be in the six to 12 inch category.

It'll be pretty much over by Sunday morning, but the cleanup will be back-breaking, with all that wet snow, ice, slush and mess to get rid of.  If you're older and out of shape, put a teenager to work cleaning that up. This is not worth a Christmas heart attack.

Then there's Christmas. It's still uncertain, but current projections are that the expected new storm will be fairly weak and to the east. That said, it will very likely snow on Christmas Day, and the roads will turn slick again. At this point, anyway, we're not expecting a huge new accumulation, but it sees like we'll get a little additional snow, anyway.

If you're not exhausted from all that, the door opens to an Arctic blast next week. By Thursday, high temperatures will stay at or below zero, and nighttime lows will be in the minus teens. Then add the wind chill factor to that. Brrrr!!!!

By the way, it's too soon to get into details, but the weather pattern appears to favor very cold weather and possible bouts of storminess continuing right into the second week of January. Are we shaping up for a tough winter? Not sure yet but it's beginning to look like that.

Moderate Sized Snowstorm Due In Vermont, New England Tuesday

Here's what the National Weather Service in
South Burlington is currently expecting for snowfall
through Wednedsay. Click on the image to make
it bigger and easier to see.

As of early Monday morning, we're still on track for a mid-sized snowfall Tuesday and Wednesday here in Vermont, so we'll have to deal with the usual wintertime slick roads, snow shoveling, and playing in the fluff.

You knew this would come eventually.

Before we get into Tuesday's main event, note that it is snowing in much of northern Vermont and New York this morning. Accumulations in most spots are around an inch, locally more in the mountains. It's enough to make the roads slippery, so give yourself extra time going to work today.

You'll need to do the same tomorrow. This storm is an Alberta clipper, coming in from the west. Usually, these clippers are not that big a deal. They usually toss one or two inches of snow on us and then move on quickly.

This one, however, has got more oomph than most of them, and its track is just perfect for a good dose of snow in northern New York, the northern half of New England and southern Quebec.

There's actually going to be two waves of snow. The first, on Tuesday, will pretty much affect all of us with a general three to seven inches of snow, with maybe a bit more than that on some of the eastern slopes of the southern and central Green Mountains.

A lull in the snow will probably come later Tuesday afternoon or the first half of Tuesday night as the storm goes by. But then the storm will consolidate and start to intensify fast just to our east. That will throw snow back our way.

It'll mostly affect the Green Mountains of Vermont on Wednesday, and also slam northern New Hampshire and much of Maine with quite a bit of snow, too. As the storm gets strong, northwest winds will pick up. Gusts Wednesday will reach at least 30 mph, which is more than enough to cause quite a bit of blowing and drifting. I guess Wednesday's commute is going to be annoying, too.

The bottom line: Most valley dwellers in Vermont can expect a total of three to eight inches of snow through Wednesday. That's where a winter weather advisory is posted. Those of you who live on the western slopes of the Green Mountains or in the Green Mountains can expect six to 12 inches through Wednesday. Those areas are under a winter storm warning through most of Wednesday.

It looks like the St. Lawrence Valley of New York, parts of New Hampshire and a good chunk of Maine will also see a good six to 12 inches of snow out of this one.

Thursday will be the coldest day of the winter so far, with daytime temperatures in many areas staying in the teens, with lows flirting with 0 Friday night. Temperatures will moderate into the weekend.