Severe Thunderstorms Could Overshadow Heat On First Day Of Long Hot Spell

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says they'll likely issue
 a severe thunderstorm watch for the area outlined in blue.
Still, a layer of warm air might prevent the storms from
forming this evening. It's nearly a 50-50 proposition.

UPDATE 6 PM SATURDAY:

As of this evening, it's a battle over whether a disturbance coming in from the northwest will be enough to trigger storms, or will a layer of stable air in the atmosphere prevent those anticipated storms from forming?

I think it will be one or the other and not some muddled middle ground in northern Vermont and the rest of the North Country this evening.

Either the layer of stable air wins out, preventing the kind of updrafts that lead to big storms, or anything widespread for that matter, or the weather disturbance coming in will erase that stable layer, and storms will develop explosively from there.

I doubt we'll have just middling light showers out of this.

Some widely scattered storms did pop up today in northern New York, northern Vermont, the upper tip of New Hampshire and southern Quebec. They all died out very quickly, though some became briefly strong. That indicates the potential for bad storms is there, but the stable layer in the atmosphere prevented the storms from really getting going. We have to get rid of the stable air to really get a bad outbreak this evening

One strong thunderstorm has developed late this afternoon east of Ottawa, Canada, but as of 5:30 p.m. I don't see anything widespread developing yet. However, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center remains fairly bullish on big storm development in southeastern Canada in the next couple of hours.

The Storm Prediction Center has given themselves a 60 percent chance they'll soon issue a severe thunderstorm watch for northern New York, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire and western Maine soon. The time frame is pretty brief. I'd say if things get going, this region will be under the gun from about 7 p.m. to midnight. Then the storm threat will quickly wane.

Enhanced risk of severe storms (in orange) has popped up in northern
New England, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. A large area
in the center of the nation is also at risk.

Usually, when there's this little storm activity, I would abandon the idea that we'd get any severe storms. But when it's this hot, and this humid, and there's a pretty strong disturbance coming in to destabilize the atmosphere, I think differently.

If things develop this evening, it will be sudden. If it plays out as I think it might, weather radar might show pretty much nothing, as it does as of 5:30 p.m., then a half hour later, the radar lights up like a Christmas tree.

For what it's worth, the HRRR short term radar animation has a batch of strong thunderstorms plunging southward across Vermont and New Hampshire after dark this evening, with the strongest storms from the Green Mountains east.

The storms would then rapidly weaken over central Vermont and central New Hampshire. We'll see how that plays out.

Of course, that stable layer I talked about might just win out. If I don't see thunderstorms developing in southeastern Canada by 8:30 or 9 p.m. this evening, I'll just call it a missed forecast.

Until then, keep a close eye out on the hot, hazy skies in the North Country this evening. Just in case.

UPDATE: 1 PM SATURDAY:
The severe thunderstorm threat over northern areas of the region later today looks higher than it did this morning.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the severe risk in the northern tip of New York, Vermont north of Route 2, northern New Hampshire and parts of western Maine to "Enhanced"

Enhanced risk is in the middle ground for the SPC's storm risk scale. It goes from marginal, to slight, then enhanced, then moderate, then high. So Enhanced Risk is nothing to sneeze at.

And frankly, I never trust the weather pattern we're in today. It's a somewhat unusual pattern, but one that often spells trouble for northern New England in particular when it sets up.

The heat and humidity we're in now provides fuel for strong or severe thunderstorms. High overhead, the air flow is coming in fast from the west-northwest. Little disturbances are embedded in that air flow. When the upper wind are from the west-northwest like this, that tends to favor the development of severe storms, and those little disturbances trigger the storms.

The biggest risk from today's storms continue to be damaging straight line winds. Of special concern is the possibility of something called a bowing echo. That's a term for a line of strong storm arrange in a line that resembles a backwards "C". At the apex of the backward "C" winds get particularly strong, and widespread damage often occurs at this point along the path of a bowing echo.

One or more bowing echoes are possible late this afternoon and evening. Also, given the fast wind flow aloft, the thunderstorms can "grab" those strong winds and bring them to the surface.

Again, not everybody in the Enhanced Risk zone will have damaging thunderstorms. It will be hit or miss, with some towns or neighborhoods being blasted, but most areas in the zone will have little or no damage from the storms. It's luck of the draw.

There's a very low, but not zero chance of a tornado or two in the Enhanced Risk zone. If a thunderstorm can get to rotating, you could get at least a brief spin up.

Despite the high humidity we're experiencing on the Earth's surface, there's also a dry layer way up there. That encourages the formation of hail, so a few gardeners in the North Country are at risk of having their tomatoes and hostas shredded. Again, not everyone will see that, but a few of us will.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

Lots to talk about today. Heat here. Heat over there, in the UK. Heat in Colorado. Severe storms possible here. Severe storms in a lot of other places. Let's get going:

STEAMY, STORMY SATURDAY IN VERMONT:

Although we know a heat wave is beginning today, the sky early this morning over northern Vermont did not scream "hot spell."

I looked up roiling clouds,  and a breeze was keeping the air feeling pretty reasonable out there.

This was largely because we're on the edge of the massive high pressure area that is creating the heat baking the eastern half of the nation.

Along the edges of hot high pressure systems like this, you get clusters of storms, those MCSs that I described yesterday.
One such MCS early this morning caused severe weather in Ontario, Canada early today We were close enough to the thunderstorm complex that clouds were washing over us.
These type of storm clusters usually weaken after dawn and before the heating of the day really takes hold. The Ontario storms headed toward northern New York and Vermont, but washed out on their way there. At most, northwest Vermont might get a sprinkle before noon, if that. 
The sun is coming out at least partially, and the heat should take hold this afternoon. So will the humidity. You will get uncomfortable if you're outdoors later this morning and especially this afternoon.

Remember, though, we're close to the edge of the heat wave. During the day, the sun's heating helps create more thunderstorm clusters, and we're under the gun later this afternoon and this evening. Especially in northern Vermont.

It's hard to say if storms later today will arrive in one concentrated cluster or be more scattered in nature. But during hot spells, any thunderstorm can develop explosively and quickly become severe.

I'm almost positive that there will be some reports of wind damage and/or large hail over southern Quebec, northern New York, northern Vermont and maybe into New Hampshire.

Obviously, not everyone will get a severe storm with damaging winds, but a few towns will get nailed. As always, it's hit or miss. If you live in northern Vermont especially, you might just get a rumble of thunder and a light shower, or you might get some decent lightning, wind gusts and a heavy downpour, or, in a few cases, some of your trees will blow over.

The clouds this morning and the storm threat this afternoon might keep some areas in northern Vermont and New York below 90 degrees, but most of us should get there.

HEAT WAVE OUTLOOK

As has been said over and over all week, tomorrow and Monday look to be the worst days, with temperatures of near 90 degree weather probably continuing for most of the upcoming week. This will mean we'll experience one of the longest stretches of Vermont heat on record.

Remember, heat waves become more and more dangerous for people the longer they last. A week of 90 degree days, with oppresive warm, humid nights, wear people down, and those with pre-existing health issues are really at risk. If you know anybody like that - anyone who is frail or elderly, make sure they get air conditioning breaks.

Take them to the movies, or the mall, or anywhere that has some air conditioning blasting. Some towns here in the North Country are setting up cooling centers where people can go and hang out in air conditioned rooms.

As if the heat were not enough, there's always the risk of a strong afternoon or evening thunderstorm during hot spells like this. Most of us won't get 'em, but a few of us might, starting Tuesday and continuing daily through Friday.

It's looking more and more like a glorious cold front will come through sometimes Friday night or Saturday. If this happens the way we think and hope, we'll be back down to normal temperatures next weekend. A high temperature of "only" 80 degrees sounds awesome, huh?

OTHER U.S. HEAT

The heat built near the eastern slopes of the Rockies this week and is spreading east. Denver, Colorado on Thursday tied its all time record high temperature of 105 degrees. 

No doubt other heat records will be set in the eastern half of the nation during the week. This won't be the worst heat wave on record for the nation as a whole, but it will be a doozy. An unusually huge area of nation is under heat advisories and warnings.

By the way, heat is not a photogenic disaster like tornadoes, but torrid conditions are one of the most deadly weather hazards. About 150 to 300 people die directly as a result of heat in the United States each year.

Basically the heat alert zones run from Oklahoma to New Hampshire and Wisconsin to North Carolina. Those of us that will be complaining about the heat in Vermont have a lot of company elsewhere in the nation. And overseas. 

Record heat melted the tar on this Irish road this week.

UK HEAT 

The United Kingdom - including England, Scotland and Ireland - are experiencing some of the hottest weather on record there. 

It was so hot in Glasgow, Scotland that the membrane of the roof of a science center melted. At 89 degrees, it was the hottest day on record in Glasgow.

Belfast, Northern Ireland also had its all time record high this week, with a reading of 85 degrees. Tar on some roads in England and Ireland melted.

SEVERE STORMS:

It's not just Vermont under threat for severe storms. On Thursday, three separate, large thunderstorm complexes hit different areas of the United States. One batch of storms dropped at least five tornadoes on western South Dakota.

Another bunch of storms cut power to tens of thousands of people around St. Louis, Missouri. Some people there are still without power as temperatures threaten to climb to near 100 degrees.

Yet more storms swept the Southeast as a derecho swept through.

So, everyone, enjoy the heat and the storms.

Heat Wave Update: Will It Be One Of Worst On Record? Also, Severe Storms Saturday?

The areas of the nation covered by heat advisories and warnings
(most of the orange and purple areas) has expanded since
yesterday and now includes Vermont and New York. 

We've been advertising the big heat wave all week and here it comes. It's muggy this Friday morning and today will be warm and humid.

Today's weather will be nothing special in terms of summer toastiness, with highs in the 80s.

The real show begins Saturday. And there's a new twist to the beginning of this heat wave. I'll get into that in a bit.

All of Vermont and New York are now under heat advisories. The one in Vermont seems to go on forever - from noon Saturday to 10 p.m. Monday. And even that might get extended beyond Monday. We're only a small fraction of a huge expanse of the nation now under heat advisories and warnings.

Here comes the twist: After the first of a long string of 90 degree days Saturday, northern parts of New York and Vermont might be affected by something called an Mesoscale Convective System, or MCS.

An MCS is a large cluster of thunderstorms that often form in the late afternoon and evening and continue well into the night. They are very common in the Plains and Midwest, but under certain circumstances can hit us, too.

Within an MCS, there are often severe thunderstorms embedded within it,  with strong straight line winds usually the biggest threat.

The system that might affect us later Saturday will form in Ontario and Quebec, then possibly skirt northern New York and Vermont. There's a chance it might weaken by the time it gets here, but that's uncertain.

I do know that when you're on the northern edge of a strong heat ridge, like we will be on Saturday, there's the risk that thunderstorms can develop explosively if there's a trigger. This could be the trigger, but as always, that's uncertain.

For the record, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a slight risk zone for severe thunderstorms Saturday because of this potential MCS.

After that, the heat grinds on. There have been subtle changes in the hot spell forecast. It was thought that Sunday would be the hottest day of the streak, but it's beginning to look like Monday might be the most extreme. (Both days will be almost equally hot, and terrible.)

This slight change in the forecast is because the weak cold front that was due to be approaching us later Monday looks even wimpier than first thought. And slower. So it won't produce any clouds of note, or thunderstorms to put a lid on the heat. It'll just be blazing sunshine on Monday, just as it will on Sunday.

There's been a lot of speculation here in this blog thingy and in many other places whether Burlington  will get to 100 degrees for only the fifth time on record. If that happens, it's now a bit more likely that this would happen on Monday instead of Sunday.

The Very Wimpy Cold Front will wash out before it really gets here, so the heat will go on all of next week. Which means this could easily be one of Vermont's worst heat waves on record.

This could change, but right now, the National Weather Service is calling for at least six consecutive days with temperatures in the 90s at Burlington. Only four heat waves since the 1880s have lasted that long. This heat wave will arguably rival the two gold standards for extreme heat in Vermont, which are huge hot spells in July, 1911 and August, 1944.

There's always the chance a subtle disturbance in the atmosphere could trigger a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms during any part of this heat wave, but right now, that doesn't look like it's in the cards. However, forecasters usually don't see these coming until a day or two before they happen.

By the way, we're not the only ones that will suffer through this heat wave. Most of the nation east of the Rockies is sharing in this as well.

Back here in Vermont, I don't see any real cold fronts ending the heat wave until around Saturday, July 7. If you don't like heat, here's a glimmer of good news. At least one computer model has us in a fairly long stretch of generally cooler than normal weather through the middle of July.

Time will tell if that comes true. I would like it to.

Oncoming Heat Wave Could Last A Week Or Even More

All that orange in the middle of the country on the National Weather
Service home page is heat warnings and advisories. (The red in
the Rockies is fire weather alerts) Those heat advisories and
warnings will spread east and will likely include
Vermont by Saturday or Sunday. 

After last night's rain, you can feel the humidity out there for sure. It's still not all that warm today - only in the 70s - but that will change over the next day or two.

Here marks the start of a miserable stretch of humid, hot weather here in Vermont. And it might go on longer than we thought it might.

The worst of it still looks to come on Sunday and Monday, but it will linger beyond that, despite the prospects of a "cold front" (Ha!) Monday night or Tuesday.

Before we get to the heat,  today looks like an interesting day, especially the further south and east you go in Vermont and New England. As you know, it rained last night. Thank you, we needed it.

But now, the air is very humid, and any showers and thunderstorms that get going today will move quite slowly. This sets the stage for local torrential downpours, and the possibility of isolated pockets of flash flooding.

The vast majority of us will see no problems with this today. But a few locations, bullseyed by downpours, could get into a dangerous flash flood situation. The highest risk of that happening, such as it is, comes in southeastern Vermont, much of New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Connecticut, southern Maine, and parts of southeastern New York.

Obviously we hope that no flooding occurs at all, but enjoy any further rain you get today. Chances of rain are pretty low over the next week. (The best chances of thunderstorms during the heat wave appear to be over northern New England, but even there, it will be hit and miss.)

Tomorrow, Friday, will be a typical hot summer day in Vermont. Temperatures will get into the 80s to around 90, and the humidity will be up there. Uncomfortable, yes, but a decent beach day as it won't be too extreme.

Saturday still looks worse, with highs in the 90s across most places in Vermont, with high humidity to make it even more fun. Burlington's record high of 93 degrees that day is threatened.

The main show continues to look like it will be Sunday. I doubt Burlington will make it to 100 degrees that day, but it's still possible. (Some computer models, and some human weather forecasters, continue to hold out the possibility of 100 on Sunday.) The record high for the date in Burlington is 96, and I would not be at all surprised if that record is broken with a 97 or a 98 degree reading.

Monday stays hot, (mid 90s) but you'd think we'd look forward to what will be going on up in Ontario and Quebec. A cold front will be lurking up there and approaching us later in the day. I still think that could set us up for some scattered, but strong thunderstorms later in the day Monday or in the evening. We'll see.

The good news, if you can call it that, is that it now looks like that cold front will actually sweep through the North Country by Tuesday. The bad news is that temperatures behind the front will "plunge" to "bitterly cold" readings in the upper 80s to around 90 Tuesday and Wednesday.

Yep, that front won't have any oomph at all. A small bubble of warm high pressure behind the front will just merge with the heat ridge that will stay over the eastern United States and keep us hot and humid.

At this point, I don't see any signs of a real cold front coming through until sometime after next Thursday. For what it's worth the American computer model doesn't have any kind of decent cold front coming through  until Sunday, July 8. Yep, a week from Sunday. Ugh.

By the way, a heat wave in Burlington, and the rest of Vermont for that matter, is defined as at least three consecutive days with highs of 90 degrees or above. By my count, there have only been 73 heat waves in Burlington since the 1880s.

The longest and worst heat wave came on August 10-17, 1944 when Burlington endured eight consecutive days in the 90s. One of those days during the 1944 heat wave got to 101 degrees, which is the still the hottest day on record for the Queen City.

Do know nights will stay uncomfortably warm through the period, so if you don't have air conditioning, prepare for a definite lack of sleep.

If overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s with a lot of humidity sounds bad, it's because it is. But it could always be worse. There's a report from a city in Oman, on the Arabian Peninsula, only fell to 108.7 degrees. Yikes!    That would be a new world record for hottest overnight low temperature anywhere on the planet.

Stay safe in the upcoming heat!

Great Stretch Of Weather Ending In Rain, Dangerous Heat, Storms

Will the upcoming heat wave be over in time for next Tuesday's fireworks
display in Burlington, Vermont? Will there be thunderstorms around
to interfere? Those questions are as of yet unanswered. 

I've always said that great weather in Vermont never goes unpunished. There's always karma, in a negative way.

So it goes this month. June, 2018 has for the most part been lovely in Vermont.

Now we pay the price. First, some drenching rains (which we actually need so that's not too bad.) Then we have to deal with that heat wave we've been anticipating. Then there's the possibility of strong storms after that.

Add in some uncertainties to the forecast going into the Fourth of July holiday and you will really long for days like yesterday. (70s, sunshine and low humidity.)

First the rains. It turns out the storm system coming in for later today and especially tonight is juicier than many people first thought it would be. Which means it looks like we'll get a boatload of rain overnight and into Thursday morning.

Many of us will have gotten close to an inch of rain by noon Thursday, with some areas getting more than that. You'll hear the roar of the rain on your roof tonight, I bet. Although some might find the rain unpleasant, at least a lot of it is coming at night so as not to disrupt outdoor plans too much.

We also need the rain, at least in parts of Vermont. In northern Vermont, it has barely rained at all since the downpours of June 18. In southern Vermont, there were some pretty good drenchers this past Saturday, but more is needed.

Also, there won't be enough rain to cause any real flooding concerns overnight and Thursday.

Next up is that heat. The forecast hasn't changed from what I outlined yesterday. You'll notice Friday will definitely be warmer and more humid. That's just a foretaste.

The blowtorch arrives Saturday with temperatures up in the 90s. Sunday still looks like the worst day, with temperatures at least well into the 90s with oppressive humidity. The official forecast from the National Weather Service gives Burlington a high temperature of 96 degrees Sunday, but it's still possible it could hit 100 degrees.

The few times it has been 100 in Burlington, the heat has come during periods of dry weather. It's easier for it to get hotter if there's not as much moisture around. It's possible tonight's rain will keep the actual temperature down a bit, though it will raise the humidity during the heat wave. So either way it will be awful.

On the other hand, I asked the South Burlington National Weather Service office about this, and they said Thursday's rains will have largely dried up by Sunday, so it could still reach 100 degrees for only the fifth time on record in the Queen City.

In any event, we're a lock Sunday for heat indexes around 105 degrees, or possibly hotter.

Big heat waves, especially if they're accompanied by high humidity, can trigger fast developing, strong to severe thunderstorms. All you need is a little trigger, like a subtle area of cooler air aloft that can provide lift to the atmosphere.

On Saturday and Sunday, it looks like there will be no such triggers, so I don't expect any thunderstorms those days. (Maybe later in the day Sunday there might be something over northwest New York or Quebec, but don't count on it.)

On Monday, a cold front edging into Ontario and Quebec could be enough to trigger afternoon and evening thunderstorms. It will still be very hot. Maybe a couple degrees cooler than Sunday. But the humidity will be even higher on Monday than Sunday, so it will feel just as bad.

Then more uncertainty arises. By Tuesday, us Vermonters will be very, very hungry for that cold front. Forecasters still don't know when, or even if, the front will make it through.  It'll be nearby on Tuesday, so showers and storms look pretty likely, but the timing and extent of those storms is anybody's guess at this point.

Tuesday is July 3, which is Burlington's big fireworks night. You'll want to keep an eye out for future forecasts if you're going to that event.

On Wednesday, July 4, nobody yet knows where that cold front will be. If we're lucky, it will have moved through, and the sun will come out amid somewhat cooler and less humid conditions. That's only if we're lucky. The front might still be hung up over or near us, which would keep conditions potentially stormy.

If we're really unlucky, the front will stall just to our north, so we'd still be in the heat and humidity, and the risk of strong storms would remain.

Don't make definitive Fourth of July plans yet if those plans depend upon the weather. Because what will happen that day in the meteorology department is anybody's guess.

Eastern Canada Can't Catch Break From Winter; Blowtorch Set To Hit Vermont, Northeast

Reference this photo to cool down during the expected
heat wave this weekend. Photo is of Corner Brook,
Newfoundland this morning. Yes, this morning. 

This cool morning will probably be the last of the bunch for awhile.

Northern New England, and especially eastern Canada, got another late season cold blast this morning.

It was one of a series that has swept through all spring and early summer. Here in New England and northern New York, the cool air has been mostly just refreshing all season, with little harm done, except in the cold hollows.

And overall temperatures for June are coming out just a bit cooler than average, nothing special.

Still, it was 31 degrees in Saranac Lake, New York this morning, the second time in four days they had a frost.

Things were even more "special" up in Canada. Newfoundland, not exact a tropical destination in the best of times, got yet another snowstorm. Yep. On June 26. That's totally off the charts, even for them.

This, after a huge snowstorm on May 24 and destructive June frosts further south in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick that ruined plenty of crops.

Summer will finally come to Newfoundland and surrounding areas this weekend. They'll be on the edge of a big, big heat wave that will affect the eastern United States within a few days. By Sunday, the snow zone in Newfoundland could see temperatures as warm as the upper 80s.

Back down here in Vermont, I hope you're enjoying this cool morning. It was in the 40s pretty much everywhere in the Green Mountain State this morning, with some 30s in the normally colder spots.

Another photo of Newfoundland this morning, again
to reference during the upcoming heat wave.

The blowtorch for this weekend is still on the way. The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont is already calling the expected heat wave "dangerous" and I really must agree with them.

It's not just the hot temperatures. It's not just the humidity. The length of the heat wave matters a lot, too. The longer a heat wave grinds on, the greater the toll it takes on the human body. Especially human bodies that don't have access to air conditioning.

The temperature is expected to rise above 70 degrees and not fall below that level until Tuesday night at the very earliest. So nights will be stifling. Daytimes Saturday through at least Monday will be well into the 90s and the humidity will be quite high.

Sunday at this point looks like it might be the worst days. It's possible, though not likely, that Burlington, Vermont will have an actual temperature of 100 degrees for only the fifth time since records began in the 1880s.

Heat indexes - how the air feels - on Sunday will be in the 105 to possibly 110 degree range. This is not normal in Vermont, that's for sure. We're not used to it.

If you can, make plans now to take air conditioning breaks during the upcoming weekend. There's some great movies out there this time of year. Maybe take in a matinee at some chilly theater near you.

Watch the elderly and make sure they're cool. They can get ill or sick in the heat very quickly. I've already ordered my 89 year old mother into her basement this weekend. Yeah, it sounds mean, but she has no air conditioning, but her basement always stays cool.

My house also has no air conditioning. So I will be sleeping in the basement, too. We have dogs, which reminds me: Be VERY careful with your dogs during the heat wave. They can't stand the heat.

Keep them in cool places, and make sure they have LOTS of water to drink. Don't take them for walks on pavement or concrete. It'll burn their paws.

If you have heavy physical work to do outside during the heat wave, try to postpone it. Even if you're healthy, or think you are. You could easily get heat stroke.

And here's the most important tip: Put a sticky note on the dashboard of your car reminding you to check to make sure all the kids and the pets are out of the car when you leave it. It's surprisingly easy to forget and that has resulted in tragedies.

When you park the car, actually look in and under the back seat. Is everybody out? No living beings in there?

Less important but still good to consider: Remove electronic equipment, cell phones, pens, aerosol cans, sunscreen, soda, beer, wine and medications from your car during hot weather. All could be ruined by the heat.

Someday, it will cool off again, and life will go on as normal. In the meantime, enjoy the relatively cool air today, Wednesday and Thursday. You'll look back on these days with fondness by the time the weekend rolls around.

Enormous Heat Wave Poised To Hit Vermont, Rest Of Northeast

Water shoots from a lawn sprinkler in my St. Albans, Vermont yard
a couple of summers ago. You'll want to get under such sprinklers to
cool off starting this upcoming weekend as a nasty heat wave
looks set to strike. 

When I was a kid, I used to love summertime heat waves. It meant time in the swimming pool and at the beach, lazy evenings chasing fireflies, and the smell of the night woods coming through the windows on muggy nights.

I don't like such weather anymore. I often have to work outside, and I melt in the heat. A medication I take forces me to overheat, sweat excessively and dehydrate in hot weather.

Which is why I have liked this summer so far. We haven't had any prolonged spells of heat and humidity, and we've had a fair share of cool, breezy days.

My luck is about to run out. But if you like heat waves you finally will get your chance soon. After a few more nice, cool-ish days at the beginning of this week, it looks more and more likely we'll be in the throes of a big heat wave by next weekend.

This one looks like it could be a doozy, too. It will probably last several days, and temperatures won't merely be close to 90. It's possible they'll zoom well past 90 degrees into near record territory by Sunday or Monday. And there's even a very slight chance - if strong thunderstorms don't develop near the International Border - that Burlington could see its first 100 degree reading since 1995.

The upper level ridge of high pressure that will set up over the eastern United States by the weekend is forecast to be stronger than the typical summertime heat ridge. That explains the risk of near record temperatures in parts of the Midwest and the East.

Up here in northern New England, we'll be close to the northern edge of this heat ridge. Usually when these heat waves set up, batches of thunderstorms, often strong ones, ride along the northern edge of these heat zones.

If these develop, the storms might temper the heat ever so slightly in the northern reached of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, but don't count on that yet. And, like I said, the storms could be strong, which would lead to a new problem, of course.

On the bright side, while fleeing to the outdoors on the upcoming stifling nights, you might see decent displays of heat lightning to the north in Quebec toward Sunday or Monday. (Heat lightning is just regular lightning that's so far away you can't hear the thunder.)

It's hard to say how long the heat locally here in Vermont will last, but at this point, I don't see signs of any significant relief until a week from this coming Thursday. Which means the heat and humidity could last close to a week. We'll see about that.

Before the heat arrives, enjoy another nice cool day today and a pleasant Tuesday. There might even be frost tonight in the coldest mountain hollows, just like there was on Friday. (I'm thinking places like Saranac Lake, New York and Island Pond, Vermont. The rest of us will be fine.)

It looks like we'll get a decent slug of rain coming in Wednesday night into Thursday. Then we'll start to feel the heat Friday, and really get into it Saturday and Sunday.

Sorry To Be Gone For Two Days; Was Weatherman At Sister's Wedding

My husband, Jeff, hunkered down against the rain, tries gamely to sweep
water away from the spot in Shrewsbury where my sister, Laurie, would
marry Bennie shortly after. The heavy rain stopped just before
the ceremony. I had assured Laurie the worst of the rain would be
over by 4 p.m. and it was. Photo by David Jenne. 

Those of you who regularly read this blog thingy might have noticed I've been offline for the past two or three days.

I was down in Shrewsbury, Vermont, for my sister Laurie's wedding. Which was held outdoors.

This being Vermont, weather complicated the situation.  Because I am such a weather geek, I quickly became the de facto wedding weather crisis consultant.

It rained Saturday in Vermont. We knew it was coming, but forecasts called for showers. We were prepared to dodge the showers, and work the wedding ceremony in between any periods of rain.

The National Weather Service and other forecasters said the rain would be off and on. And they said the better atmospheric forcing would go by to our south, so any rain that fell would be quite light. We'd be OK.

Gawd, did it ever pour in Shrewsbury Saturday afternoon! The better atmospheric forcing seemed to go right overhead. I'd estimate an inch of rain fell in just three hours or so. The nearby Rutland Airport received 0.70 inches of rain in two hours during Saturday afternoon.

Plus, the temperatures plummeted during the rain. It went from 65 to 53 at Rutland as the rain moved in. Shrewsbury is at a higher elevation, so I wouldn't be surprised if the temperature dipped below 50 up there. In the middle of the afternoon in June.

The rain stopped just in time, which allowed Laurie and Bennie to say their vows

The wedding was scheduled to begin at 3 p.m. or so. It was still pouring. All eyes turned to me, the weather geek.

What to do?  I kept studying National Weather Service radar. There seemed to be some hope at the end of this rainy tunnel.

It looked like the heaviest rain was moving toward the northeast awfully fast. An area of no rain, or just drizzle lurked down near Albany, New York. This relatively rain-free area was coming our way. Would it arrive in time?  

I asked the bride, Laurie, if the wedding could be postponed until 4 p.m. or so. She said yes. (It was the first of two big yesses she would say that day.) The heaviest rain bands should have moved by to our northeast by then. There might be some lingering drizzle at 4 p.m., I said, but the heavy rain would be gone.

I just prayed that I would be right.  Thank goodness I was! The downpour abruptly turned into sprinkles and drizzle right before 4 p.m. Patches of fog formed pretty lacy patterns on the scenic mountains behind us. The wedding was on!

Almost. First, we had to do something about the river that formed right where the vows would take place. My husband Jeff went out and started breaking up sod that blocked the flowing water and sweeping the water away.

A wedding guest spied Jeff, with a battered broom, hunkered down under a gray sweatshirt, forlornly sweeping the water.

"Why are you doing this?," the guest asked, confused.

My husband replied, "What, give up show business?"

Jeff got most of the water out of there, but Laurie said her vows barefoot so she wouldn't get her nice shoes soaked.   It was absolutely beautiful. The weather was no match for the love between Bennie and Laurie and the family members all gathered on that beautiful Shrewsbury hilltop for the wedding.

Sometimes, weather problems can be defeated pretty easily.

As Expected, A Chilly Vermont Summer Morning, And Those Floods Just Keep Coming

A large rose bush enjoys wall to wall sunshine on the longest day
of the year, the Summer Solstice yesterday in Burlington, Vermont. 

It was great to have a Summer Solstice, as we did Thursday that was wall-to-wall clear skies and sunshine here in Vermont. That's certainly not something that happens every year.

And here's the weirder thing. I was out late working in the yard because visibility stayed great past 9 p.m. I finally went inside, not because it was too dark but because I was getting too cold. Ahh, summer in Vermont.

There were reports of readings of 33 and 34 degrees up in the Northeast Kingdom this morning. Similar readings were reported in northern New Hampshire. It was 30 degrees over in Saranac Lake, New York, so they had another June frost over there. They just had one last week, too.

It will warm up today, and after a showery, coolish weekend, and a somewhat cool start to the week, things will get warmer and more humid by the second half of the upcoming week. There are even some signs we could get a strong heat wave somewhere around the week of July 4.

Elsewhere in the nation, the floods I've been speaking of go on and on. They're never that widespread, but they are intense.

Flooding at the Richmond, Virginia airport
this morning. 

The latest victim was Richmond, Virginia, where more than seven inches of rain came down early this morning. A whopping 4.55 inches of that rain come in just one hour --- that's incredible. The rainfall rate at one point was five inches per hour.

As you might imagine, the flooding in and around Richmond is severe. The Richmond International Airport was closed this morning because swaths of the airfield, the parking lots and the roads leading to the airport were under water. Parts of Interstate 64 were also closed for a time.

Areas further north in Virginia, including Charlottesville and Fredericksburg, also had significant flooding. This is Charlottesville's second nasty flood within a month.

By the way, this will be the second consecutive month in Richmond with over ten inches of rain. That's also completely off the charts.

Meanwhile, coastal Texas is still trying to recover from flooding this week. Port Aransas, devastated by Hurricane Harvey last year, drowned under 15 inches of rain from the tropical downpours this week.

Flood warnings were widespread this morning in southeastern South Dakota, northwestern Iowa and southwestern Minnesota after three to eight inches of rain this week.

Today, further flash flooding is a fairly good bet from the Mid-Atlantic states to the Ohio Valley. The threat spreads back to parts of the Plains over the weekend.

We have more videos:

McAllen, Texas, ground zero for the national crisis over immigrant children separated from parents, is also dealing with very severe flooding:



Earlier this week, there was some destructive flooding in and near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Here's the scene in Bethel Park, Pennsylvania:

A Slightly Autumnal Feel To The First Day Of Summer

It's officially astronomical summer, and time to enjoy the great outdoors
This photo was taken during a heat wave a few years ago. But this year,
the first day of summer is actually on the cool side in Vermont.

Today's the first day of astronomical summer, the longest day of the year. It feels, however, just a bit like the autumnal equinox. It is a slightly chilly start to summer here in Vermont.

But don't worry! That doesn't mean the entire summer will be cold.

Actually, this cool first day of summer is quite pleasant from my perspective.

You can do anything outdoors and not melt from the heat. The sun is out, so it's not that cold, but the humidity is low, and there's a breeze. What's not to love?

Highs today will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s, which actually is only a little bit below normal for this time of year and certainly nothing all that unusual.

The coolness will linger off and on into the weekend and early next week. Tonight, temperatures will get down into the 40s across the entire region. So a good night for sleeping. Some of the cold hollows in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom of Vermont could get into the 30s. I wouldn't even be surprised to see a touch of first night of summer frost in places like Saranac Lake, New York.

Temperatures will rebound nicely to normal summer levels Friday, but clouds and eventually showers moving in for Saturday and Sunday will keep temperatures on the cool side. On Sunday, another cold front arrives, which will keep temperatures a bit on the coolish side early next week before it warms up again.

Of course, we're talking about astronomical summer. Meteorological summer is considered to run from June 1 through August 31. For the record, June so far in Vermont has had temperatures averaging pretty close to normal.

Flash Flooding, Other Storms Continue To Plague Nation

Good Samaritans rescue a 70 year old man from a flooded car in
Rockford, Illinois Monday.

Flash flooding is turning into a big problem in many different parts of the nation this week. Other storms have produced big hail and even a couple New Hampshire tornadoes.

I mentioned the Houghton, Michigan flood the other day. Other hard hit areas include Rockford, Illinois.

Many homes and businesses, including a hospital, were flooded there, and motorist were rescued from stranded cars. Three to five inches of rain fell in Rockford in just a few hours.

Parts of Texas, such as Port Arthur, hit so hard by Hurricane Harvey flooding last year, went under water again.

Snow plows clear heavy accumulations of hail from a highway
in Colorado this week. 

Today, the greatest risk of additional flooding includes coastal Texas and Louisiana, and an area around southeastern South Dakota and Iowa. (I hope the sump pumps are working great in my mother-in-law's house in Yankton, South Dakota!)

Meanwhile, the problem in Colorado was hail, especially in Greeley, Boulder and the Denver suburb of Aurora.

Some of the hailstones were the size of tennis balls, so you can imagine how many cars and roofs were damaged in these heavily populated areas.

Finally, we talked yesterday about those tornado warnings Monday in New Hampshire and Massachusetts.  

It turns out two tornadoes were confirmed in New Hampshire. A hiker in the White Mountains took a photo of a weak tornado skipping across the hills and forests around Lincoln, New Hampshire. Another tornado, and EFO with 75 mph winds, took a nine mile path near Bath, New Hampshire.

Here's some videos:

First,  a rescue from a flooded car in Rockford, Illinois:



Here water in Rockford gushes into a hospital:



Here's an intense hail storm in Greeley, Colorado:



In Greeley, hail washed into a low spot in one neighborhood and ended up being two to three feet deep, as this news clip shows:

New England's Newly Tornadic Reputation Got Another Boost Monday

A storm near Barre, Vermont Monday. Photo via Twitter, Geoff Marion

The other day, I mentioned in this blog thingy that the Northeastern United States is having an unusually tornadic year, even if the nation as the whole is relatively quiet on the twister front.

New England's tornadic reputation was burnished Monday when more tornado warnings were issued in central Massachusetts, and in of all places, the rugged White Mountains region of northern New Hampshire.

It remains to be seen as to whether any of the rapidly rotating storms detected on radar Monday actually produced tornadoes that touched down. But they might have. I imagine National Weather Service meteorologists might be looking for evidence of that today.

But certainly, funnel clouds were sighted in northern New Hampshire, and what appeared to be a rapidly rotating wall cloud was filmed over Granby, Massachusetts.

Certainly, there was plenty of wind damage to trees and power lines and such across much of New England. That includes here in Vermont, though there were no tornado warnings and no obvious signs of  twisters in the Green Mountain State.

Some of highlights of the Vermont damage included a damaged barn and numerous snapped off trees in Waitsfield, trees down on Interstate 89 near Waterbury and Interstate 91 in Orange County. Part of Route 7A near Shaftsbury were closed by downed trees and power lines.

Possible funnel cloud in Durham, New Hampshire Monday. Photo
 by Julie Smith

At least we got some needed rain. In some cases lots of it. In a few cases, almost too much. Burlington, got 2.29 inches of rain Monday, a record high precipitation level for the date.

I have to check but I think Monday was Burlington's wettest day in at least a year, if not more.

Flash flooding was reported in northwestern New York. And I'm sure there were some washed out or eroded road edges and driveways in parts of the Champlain Valley and down the Winooski River Valley in central Vermont as big rains fell in short periods of time.

Jericho reported 1.44 inches of rain from just one thunderstorm. The same initial thunderstorm Monday afternoon dumped 1.81 inches of rain on Middlesex. We did need the rain. It was super dry around my house in St. Albans before Monday.

Then, a pair of downpours blustered through in the afternoon, and then we had several hours in the evening in which it rained constantly, sometimes fairly heavily.

The rest of the week looks nice, with plenty of sun and comfortable temperatures and humidity levels. It looks like it will rain again this coming weekend. At this point, it doesn't look like we're in line for any severe thunderstorms, but there might be locally heavy rain again.

Heat, Strong Storms, Local Flash Floods. It's Summer

Some thunderstorms today in Vermont could have torrenetial rains,
and might cause local flooding like this storm did last
August in Burlington

After a night that proved increasingly muggy, we've got a classic Vermont summer day coming up today. Not classic as in beautiful, like, say Friday afternoon and Saturday were.

I'm talking oppressively hot, with lots of afternoon showers and thunderstorms around. Forecasters still think some of the storms might be strong to severe, and there is a risk of one or two towns getting a flash flood today.

First, the heat. Temperatures won't be too extraordinary, but hot enough. The humidity is what's going to make today nasty. There is a heat advisory up for the Champlain Valley and southeastern Vermont. Afternoon readings before the storms will get up to near 90 degrees, but the humidity will make it fell like it's in the upper 90s.

Today is not the day you want to move that big rock pile or run a marathon. Save it for another day, bub.

There is a cold front coming in from the northwest, which means this heat and humidity is here just for today. It'll be gone tomorrow. Of course, we have to get through lots of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front this afternoon and evening.

Most of us will just get garden variety storms, except many of the storms will have some torrential rain.

Early this morning, there were already some showers and storms in the Northeast Kingdom, and also just north of the Canadian border above Highgate, Vermont.

The storms will increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon. Some storms will contain microbursts, which, as I described yesterday, are intense blasts of wind and rain coming down from a collapsing thunderstorm. Microbursts cover only a small area, but the wind in these things is dangerous, and can cause a lot of damage.

We could use the rain, as it has been dry. Yet, forecasters still say one or two towns could get a flash flood out of today's weather pattern.

Most of the storms will be moving right along, so they won't sit over any particular area for a long time. That means they won't have time to dump enough rain to cause much more than some minor street flooding and a bit of erosion on your hilly driveway.

However. There's always a however. A few places might get what are known as training thunderstorms. The storms will be lined up like boxcars on a railroad track. Which means one storm after another would hit a particular place. That would be enough to cause flash flooding in the spots where the training thunderstorms hit.

The weird thing about training is one town might have some damaging flash floods while communities just a couple miles away, outside the storms, are just fine. You don't know much in advance where this will hit.

So, the best thing to do today is take it easy. Stay in the AC if you can. Listen for severe thunderstorm  and/or flash flood warnings today, and if you're area is covered by one of these alerts, get inside a nice sturdy building. Unless the nice sturdy building is in a flood prone area. Then go up to higher ground.

At least the storminess we're getting today is not nearly as bad as it was in places like Wisconsin and Michigan. There, the flash flooding was pretty extreme. As an example, here are some scenes from hilly Houghton, in the Upper Penninsula of Michigan:



Another dramatic video from Michigan:

Cape Town, South Africa Rejoices In Flash Floods; U.S., Not So Much

Reservoirs near Cape Town, South Africa are beginning to refill with
recent heavy rains, meaning a water crisis is at least temporarily averted.

For the third time this month, a major cold front smasing  into the area around Cape Town, South Africa, promising heavy rain and gusty winds.

Sounds miserable, especially after a rather wet and gloomy May, but a lot of people in and around Cape Town are delighted with the stormy weather.

CAPE TOWN RELIEF

When last we left Cape Town in this here blog thingy, the major city in South Africa was about to run out of water.

Sometime this spring, (which is autumn in the southern hemisphere, where Cape Town is) the city of about 3.7 million would run out of water due to a long, punishing drought. The plan was to haul in water from elsewhere, and give everyone a measly 25 liters per person every day at distribution sites, which is logistically very tricky. And 25 liters isn't really much water for a person's needs.

Thank goodness the rains came. Cape Town is by no means out of the woods, but reservoirs have partly refilled with the recent rains. And more precipitation is forecast this week. Again, it won't solve all the problems there, but it's a good start. Disaster has been averted for now.

Some of the storms have been heavy enough to produce some flash flooding in and are Cape Town this month. But given the apocalyptic warnings of no water this year, it seems people there are accepting the local bouts of high water on city streets.

UNITED STATES FLASH FLOODS

As usual back here in the United States, summer storms have created some pretty nasty flash floods in the past couple of days. Ground zero so far seems to be northern Minnesota, parts of Wisconsin and pieces of northwestern Michigan.

Two to 12 inches of rain fell in much of northern Wisconsin since yesterday, and flash flooding was widespread. Major highways in the region are washed out, says Minnesota Public Radio, and flash flood emergencies were in effect this morning.

Highway 23 in Minnesota was washed away by flash flooding last night. 

Thing are still ominous out there today. As of early afternoon, the flash flood region in Minnesota and Wisconsin was under a tornado watch. The storms that could cause those tornadoes will also likely unleash more heavy rain, so more flooding is still a big risk.

VERMONT STORMS?

Monday could be an interesting day in parts of Vermont with the risk of strong storms, and despite the recent very dry conditions, the slight possibility of flash floods exists around here, too.

You might have noticed this Sunday afternoon it's gotten pretty damn hot, with temperatures well into the 80s in many spots in Vermont by 1 p.m. The humidity isn't too bad -- yet.

But the humidity will dramatically increase later today and tonight, and as I mentioned yesterday, water in the atmosphere will be at near record highs across Vermont Monday.

Meanwhile, a cold front is sagging south from Canada. Before it arrives, Monday will become a miserable day, with afternoon temperatures approaching 90. That'll be combined with unbearable humidity levels.

The humidity and the approaching cold front will trigger plenty of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A few could be severe. The biggest threat is from local microbursts. Individual microbursts rarely affect an area more than a couple miles in circumference, but they are very dangerous. 

They come when strong updrafts in a thunderstorm keep lots and lots of rain and hail suspended in the atmosphere. Then the thunderstorm loses the updraft and all that rain and hail comes crashing down to Earth in a giant gust of wind, blinding rain and hail. Microbursts can cause lots of damage, because the winds are so strong and the incredible amount of rain that can accompany them sometimes create flash floods.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma currently has all of Vermont in a slight risk zone for severe storms on Monday.

Forecasters also have us in a slight risk zone for flash flooding. As noted, it has been dry, so it would take lots of rain to cause a flash flood. There's no chance that there will be widespread flooding in Vermont with the expected downpours on Monday. There is a big however, however.

If a few torrential storms go over the same area, a couple local towns could get some dangerous flash floods along small streams, creeks, ditches and what not.

As a result, NOAA has northern New England and northern New York, including all of Vermont in a slight risk zone for flash flooding on Monday. 

We'll have updates to this on Monday morning.

After A Chilly Thursday, A Shot Of Steamy Summer Heat Coming. Storms Too?

Well, Thursday was kind of a bleak one in northern Vermont wasn't it? Overcast, patches of drizzle, temperatures in the low 60s.   

The cool weather over the past couple of days has let my peonies hang
on in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens, but a spell of hot, humid
weather will likely make them go past their prime this weekend. 

It was even worse in northern Maine. Up in Caribou, the high temperature Thursday got all the way up to 50 degrees. Yeah, chilly. It set a record for the date for the lowest high temperature on record. 

The cool, clammy air hung on into this morning, with patches of light rain here and there.

At least if you don't like hot weather, you were happy, right?

If so, you won't be. We haven't had too much in the way of oppressive humidity so far this late spring and summer, but a spell of sticky, rather hot air is coming in for Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures could get up to 90 degrees in a few Vermont spots Sunday afternoon, with most places well up into the 80s. The humidity, which is low today and won't be so bad Saturday, will get increasingly awful Sunday afternoon.

Sunday night will be a terribly oppressive night for quote, unquote sleeping, and Monday will be a miserably sticky day, too. This won't last long, but as temperatures and humidity will settle back down. 

To give you an idea of how humid it will be, precipitable water levels in the air over Vermont - one measure of moisture - will be at near record high levels late Sunday through Monday.

That sets the stage for some potentially torrential rain with some thunderstorms through that period. The first batch of storms could cross the border from Canada as soon as late Sunday afternoon or evening, but most of the activity will probably hold off until Sunday night and Monday. 

Terrific. In addition to all that humidity Sunday night, the potential is for it be quite loud out there. Don't plan on much sleep then. 

On one hand, we could use the rain. The cold front that came through Wednesday night didn't really produce a lot of heavy thunderstorms. The rain that came yesterday through this morning was quite light, so it's still pretty dry out there. 

On the other hand, it's possible the storms Sunday night and Monday might be a too much of a good thing. It's too soon to tell for sure, but despite the dry soils and the very low river levels currently across Vermont, there's still a chance of local flash flooding. Not a huge chance at this point, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

Here's why: With such high precipitable water levels in the atmosphere, thunderstorm rains could really be extremely heavy. And there are some signs there could be "training" thunderstorms, which means a line of storms each going over the same spot, like boxcars traveling down a set of train tracks 

Training storms are a great way to produce a flash flood. 

Again, no reason to panic now.  At this point anyway, if any flash flooding occurs, and that's a HUGE if, it would be pretty localized.

Most of us will just end up with wetter gardens, which right now is a good thing. 

Latest Weird Tornado Location: Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania

The wrecked interior of a Panera Bread restaurant in
Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania after an apparent
tornado roared through last night. 

The number of tornadoes that have hit the United States so far in 2018 is definitely below average, but one area that has seen more than its share of twisters is the northeastern United States.

The latest apparent victim of a Northeastern tornado is Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. There was major damage to a commercial district in town, and at least three people were injured.

As of early this morning, the National Weather Service in Binghampton, New York has yet to confirm whether the Wilkes-Barre storm was a tornado. They'll make that determination later today.

But all the signs point to a tornado. Radar indicated strong rotation over Wilkes-Barre last night and debris lofted at least 15,000 feet into the air.

The degree of destruction -- buildings destroyed, cars tossed across parking lots, U-Haul vans thrown on top of each other - definitely suggest a pretty intense twister.

The Wilkes-Barre Times Leader said the likely tornado struck at around 10 p.m. Wednesday in a busy commercial district. Luckily, it wasn't during the day when even more people might have been around than they otherwise would have. A Panera Bread, a strip mall, a Nissan dealership, a Barnes & Noble bookstore, an Ashley Furniture dealership and a U-Haul store all suffered major damage.

Another possible tornado touched down around Franklindale Township, Pennsylvania, southwest of Binghamton, New York. Social media showed pictures of a large funnel cloud in the area, and buildings were damaged.

Radar imagery from last night shows strong rotation with an
apparent tornado in Wilkes-Barre, Pa.  

As I mentioned, this has been quite a year so far for tornadoes in the Northeast. On May 4, a tornado took a 36-mile long path through western and central New Hampshire, making it one of New England longest tracked tornadoes on record.

Then on May 15, at least four tornadoes hit Connecticut and a least two others struck eastern New York, causing widespread damage. The tornadoes killed two people and damaged or destroyed hundreds of homes, especially in and around Hamden, Connecticut.

Last night's severe weather weakened overnight and swept out to sea east of New England as a cold front marched through.

In an unrelated tornado development, hordes of storm chasers are headed for souther Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Canada today for a likely fairly extensive outbreak of tornadoes. We'll see. I'm sure there will be videos.

A Few Severe Storms Possible Later Today, Not Widespread

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in the yellow sections
of this map today. Dark green areas have a marginal risk.

The weather pattern of late has not favored the formation of thunderstorms.

We've  haven't really seen any widespread outbreaks of storms since May 4 here in Vermont, though a few places got nailed on May 25.

For a change, there is a chance of some thunderstorms later today and tonight. The focus of any severe storms, if they develop, looks to be across Pennsylvania and New York, including the St. Lawrence Valley and the Adirondacks.

A couple strong to marginally severe thunderstorms might sneak into western Vermont this evening or tonight, but there won't be anything widespread.

You'll notice the air getting somewhat more humid today amid south winds. There's also a cold front approaching from the northwest. This should trigger thunderstorms, some of them strong to severe, mostly over Ontario and maybe down into Ohio this afternoon.

These storms should move briskly eastward, passing through New York and Pennsylvania during the afternoon and evening. Some of those storms might produce damaging winds and hail. This won't be a widespread outbreak, but a few places could really get hammered.

It'll be around sunset by the time most of the storms reach Vermont, so they will be starting to weaken by the time they get here. Especially across northwestern Vermont, it's possible a couple storms will be pretty gusty, but again, nothing extreme. And certainly nothing like the widespread severe weather outbreak on May 4. 

While severe weather wouldn't be great, I do hope my area in St. Albans,  and much of the rest of Vermont for that matter, get decent rain showers out of this. It's pretty dry out there. We could use the precipitation.

Summer weather will take a one-day hiatus behind the cold front on Thursday. It'll be breezy and rather cloudy with showers around, especially in the mountains. Temperatures won't get out of the 60s, and might stay in the 50s in higher elevations in the north.

Readings will begin a dramatic rebound on Friday, and by Sunday, it will almost feel hot, with increasing humidity and temperatures well into the 80s.

Hurricane Bud In Pacific, And Are Hurricanes Getting Even Wetter?

Hurricane Bud looking impressive in this satellite photo from Monday

The second Category 4 hurricane in a week is spinning off the west coast of Mexico this morning. Unlike last week's Aletta, this new one might actually do some damage.  Mostly from flooding.

And it could even wet some of the deserts of the American Southwest. Here are some details:

HURRICANE BUD

It's got an interesting name - Hurricane Bud - and it might sideswipe Cabo San Lucas later this week. By then, Bud's winds will have diminished to nothing too spectacular at all, but it could easily create a lot of heavy rain and flooding in southwestern Mexico, including the Baja Peninsula.

As of this morning, maximum sustained winds were 130 mph with Hurricane Bud, but it's moving northwest into cooler waters, which will start that weakening trend.

However, heavy rains often linger with the remains of hurricanes long after they weaken. Bud wil be no exception.  It will probably still be a tropical storm when it reaches Baja California, and then soak western Mexico with up to 10 inches of rain. Flash flooding is a very good bet in that neck of the woods.

It looks as if moisture from Bud will make it all the way up into Arizona and Mexico. On one hand, this is good. The Southwest has been plagued by wildfires pretty much the entire spring, and some nice rains will help. This system might give Tucson and Phoenix their first rains in three months. 

On the other hand, it doesn't take much rain in the deserts to set off flash flooding, and some of the downpours associated with the  remains of Hurricane Bud at the end of the week could cause some local high water in Arizona and New Mexico.

GULF OF MEXICO STIRRING

Hurricane experts are watching an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea east of Central America that is likely to eventually drift north. Once it hits the Gulf of Mexico, there is a chance - albeit rather slight at this point - that it could become a tropical storm.

Even if it doesn't, this storminess will bring a slug of heavy rain somewhere into the Gulf Coast toward the weekend or early next week. At this point the target area for the potential heavy rain seems to be Texas and/or Louisiana, but we'll have to wait and see on that.

While nobody is hitting the panic button over potential flooding yet, this kind of thing makes people in and around Houston nervous, given the catastrophe of last year's Hurricane Harvey flooding there.

HURRICANES GETTING WETTER?

Flooding from Hurricane Harvey in Port Arthur, Texas last year.
Photo by Marcus Yam/LA Times/Getty Images

Hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical depressions and the remnants of dead and dying tropical systems almost alway dump heavy rains wherever they go. Inland flooding is often the biggest risks of tropical systems. Note Harvey, mentioned above.

New research into hurricanes are leading to worries about heavier rains and worsening floods from future tropical systems.

The journal Nature reports on findings that hurricanes in general are traveling at a forward speed of 10 percent slower than 70 years ago.

That's bad because the longer a hurricane stays over an area, battering from wind and waves will also last longer. Worse, the heavy rains will go on in any one place for a greater period of time, resulting in worse floods than if the hurricane raced past a particular locations.

Some hurricanes have always slowed down and stalled. Again, witness Harvey in Texas last year. However, it looks like these stalls and decelerations with hurricanes are happening more often.

Once again, we can blame climate change. As NPR reports:

"Climate change is causing the poles to become warmer, which in turn affects the atmospheric pressure. There is less and less difference in pressure between the poles and the tropics, and that causes the big currents of wind between the two areas to slow down. 

Storms ride on those currents of wind, like a boat in a stream."

Which means if the winds carrying tropical systems slow down, so will the hurricanes. Just another reason to dread hurricane season, huh?