School Bus Drivers Keep Driving Into Dangerous Floods

Dash cam image from inside a bus that was driven into Texas floodwaters.
The driver and the student riding the bus were saved, but the bus driver
was fired and faces criminal charges.

Heavy rain is likely over many parts of the eastern third of the United States and in the Pacific Northwest over the next week or so.

Some areas could experience flooding. 

Which got me thinking about school buses. The Mike Smith Enterprises Blog had a very worthy read recently about the shocking number of school bus drivers who drive into flood waters. Even when there's signs that say "High Water" or "Road Closed."

Smith documented at least eight instances so far this school year. In each case, he reports, children were on the buses and they had to be rescued. There've been no serious injuries so far, but these are close calls, and the potential for fatalities in these situations is high.

This is an international problem. Just this past week there was a tragedy in Jordan, when a flood swept away a school bus, killing 18 people, mostly children. 

By the way, check out the scary video at the bottom of this post that shows one recent incident in Texas.

It doesn't take much water to push a vehicle downstream, even if said vehicle is a big yellow school bus.

Why are bus drivers taking such risks with children? Smith has a theory:

"There is the possibility bus drivers are put under sufficient pressure to make schedules that it causes them to toss good judgement aside and attempt to make it through flooding in spite of the fact that drivers involved in many of these instances are fired."

School districts nationwide should read Smith's blog post and make sure strict rules are in place concerning buses and flooded roads.

As far as I'm concerned the rule should be: If the road is flooded, the bus doesn't go through. If this messes up schedules, makes kids late or is otherwise disruptive, too bad. Deal with it.

Other media is picking up on this phenomenon, so I hope this issue gets drummed into school bus service operators' heads.

Below is a scary video of the most recent case: A school bus with one kid on board drove into floodwater and was swept away. The driver, Nathan DeYoung, 57, was fired and police charged him with child endangerment and driving through a barricade.  A dash cam video in the bus captured the whole thing.

Notice in the video the barricades are well marked, but he drove through anyway. When he encountered the creek, you can see it was rushing fast, but he drove in anyway. The bus was carried quite a way downstream. Somehow, the bus didn't overturn. The driver and kid on board likely would have drowned it that happened.

The middle school student onboard the bus called his mother in hysterics when he was on the flooded bus because he thought he was going to die. No child should go through that. Excellent work by local first responders got the kid and the driver out quickly.

Watch:

Wet Week Here In Vermont, But A Full Flood In Italy

Tornado damage on Fishers Island, New York.
Photo by Matt Edwards

More rain fell on Vermont Monday, as you know. October is turning out to be a rather wet month.

As October closes and November begins, a lot more rain is on the way.

There's been a lot of gloomy, wet weather lately around here, which is bad for a lot of us. But the U.S. Drought Monitor says we still haven't gotten rid of the drought in northern Vermont, so this incessant rain is a good thing, I guess.

Where I live in St. Albans, Vermont, the Drought Monitor says I'm still in drought, but as I dig in the garden, the soil moisture is much better than it was a month ago. Although if I dig down far enough and I occasionally find some dry earth. But we're getting there.

This week will help. Most of us are going to get at least an inch of rain, probably more. Today will be mostly dry but chilly.  There might be a few light showers of rain or snow in the mountains, but that's it.

Shower chances will increase Wednesday as a cold front stalls nearby. Little disturbances and packets of moisture will travel northward along the front, keeping the showers going through Thursday. A final, stronger storm will ride northward along the this front Thursday night and Friday, and that's when most of the rain will fall.

Even though some of us will get up to two inches of rain, rivers and streams are still low enough so that flooding is not anticipated.

That's not to say that areas outside of Vermont won't have rough weather in the coming days. It actually started Monday. New England, which I now half-jokingly call the new "Tornado Alley" had another twister yesterday.

A waterspout came ashore in Woods Hole, Massachusetts as a tornado, causing minor damage. Another relatively weak tornado touched down in North Stonington, Connecticut. Yet another somewhat stronger tornado hit Fishers Island, New York, just off the coast of southeastern Connecticut, damaging buildings and knocking down a bunch of trees.

So far in 2018, New England has had 17 tornadoes. Quite a few for this region, doncha think?

Flooding in Venice, Italy Monday. Photo by Michael
Silvestri/Reuters

This stormy pattern looks destined to unleash some severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes in Texas tomorrow.  Over the next couple of days, flooding is possible in some spots in a broad stripe from Texas to Pennsylvania.

It looks like an active pattern will continue across much of the nation through mid-November, so expect lots more storminess for awhile.

ITALY FLOOD

High winds and flooding have killed nine people in Italy in the past couple of days, the Associated Press reports. Venice, Italy was about 70 percent flooded by an exceptionally high tide caused by the storm. This was the worst inundation in Venice in a decade.

A marathon was held in Venice and runners had to splash through ankle deep water through parts of the course.

Weird Square Iceberg Turns Out To Be Not As Weird As You'd Think

An odd rectangular iceberg recently broke
off the Larsen C ice shelf in Antarctica.

When you think of icebergs, you probably envision a jagged pile of ice sticking up from the water, with most of the iceberg still lurking underwater, ready to sink another ship like the Titanic.

This universal vision of icebergs is what recently made an Antarctic iceberg newsworthy.  It was a perfect rectangle. Flat on top, with straight vertical sides with sharp corners without any sign of imperfect geometry.  

According to LiveScience, the wonderfully rectangular gigantic piece of ice is called a tabular iceberg. LiveScience interviewed Kelly Brunt, an ice scientist with NASA and the University of Maryland.  Here's how she explained it.

Tabular icebergs like this one that made the news are always wide and flat and long, like a sheet cake. They split off from the edges of ice shelves, which are large blocks of ice connected toland but floating in the water surrounding places like Antarctica.  This particular iceberg came from the Larsen C ice shelf.

The Larsen C ice shelf made news last year, too, when an iceberg the size of Delaware broke awau from it. Many scientists saw this and the diminishing Larsen C ice shelf an ominous sign of global warming.

The recent rectangular iceberg isn't nearly as big as that giant Delaware sized one last year, so it isn't by itself much of a concern.

"What makes this one a bit unusual is that it looks almost like a square," Brunt said. Other scientists said it's common to see icebergs with relatively straight edges but it's rare to have a tabular iceberg with two corners at such right angles 

You can see a more typical, smaller, irregularly shaped tabular iceberg to left of the square one in the photo in this post.

Brunt guessed the iceberg was more than a mile across. Like most icebergs of all stripes, the majoritu of this one is hidden beneath the water's surface.

This one had to be newly-formed, she said, because the edges of it hadn't been rounded off by wind, waves and weather.

The top of the iceberg looks like a great place to go cross country skiing or something, but it's better to look at it from a distance. There are probably cracks and crevices opening or about to, and it would be dangerous to stand on this thing.

So, we'll admire it from a distance.

Worst Hurricane Of The Year Just Hit The United States

The island of Titian completely swallowed up within the eye of
Typhoon Yutu last week. 

You might not have seen it on the news, but the worst hurricane of the year just hit the United States this week.  

Usually, there's wall-to-wall media coverage of such a thing, as we saw with Hurricanes Michael and Florence.

But this worst-case hurricane that I'm talking about was a typhoon that hit the northern Mariana Islands, particularly Saipan and Titian last week. These islands are American territory.

Peak winds of Typhoon Yutu were an astonishing 180 mph as the storm swept over Saipan. Compare that to what I though was the incredible 150 mph or so winds in Michael, and you really have something.

As you can imagine, the devastation is pretty complete. One death has been reported so far. It will take months, probably, to restore power.  There's quite a video at the bottom of this post.

Because the Mariana Islands are prone to typhoons, building codes there are very tough. Even so, houses were no match for such incredible winds. Most buildings there are damaged. FEMA is on its way with food and water, the Weather Channel reports.

There was a witness account in the Category 6 weather blog, illustrating what such strong winds can do, even making water infiltrate sturdy buildings:

"My fourth floor north-facing window and door flooded my place badly. Streaming in from the air conditioner, my door, perculating in from my aluminum windowsill. Even my empty hole in the wale from a removed power outlet! My air conditioner nearly blew inside my rood, shoved THAT violently by 120+ mph winds. From 3 to 6 a.m. were the worst. The interior walls...pulsed, is the word I'd use. I put my fingertips on the wall, and it was like the plaster walls were "breathing."

Images and video showed homes torn apart and cars blown around like toys. By the way, Typhoon Yutu is tied for the strongest tropical storm for 2018.

Wreckage after Typhoon Yutu in the Mariana Islands. 

Typhoon Yutu is still out there and still a beast. It is heading toward the island of Luzon in the Philippines, which is that nation's most populous island. The typhoon should largely miss the metropolis of Manila.

Yutu currently has top winds of 150 mph. Those winds might weaken some by the time it hits the Philippines, but wind, incredible rains and landslides are all coming to parts of Luzon.

Meanwhile, earlier this month, Hurricane Walaka wiped a small, remote Hawaiian island off the map, according to The Guardian. 

East Island was an 11-acre in the French Frigate Shoals, a big, huge protected marine environmental protection agency northwest of the main Hawaii Islands.

The island had probably been there for 1,000 or 2,000 years. Scientists had just begun studying the island as part of climate change research and now it's gone. Some would say because of climate change (rising sea levels and the risk of stronger hurricanes.)

The island had been an important habitat for Hawaiian monk seals and sea turtles, according to the Guardian, so there is a real environmental loss or at least risk here.

By the way, there is a late season semi-surprise out in the central Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Storm Oscar formed out there in recent days and is expected to turn into a  hurricane soon. It poses no real threat to land.

Here's that video of Typhoon Yutu

What To Expect From Today's Messy Nor'easter In Vermont, Elsewhere

Some areas of Vermont might see some slippery, snowy roads for a time
as snow will fall near the onset of today's nor'easter. Most places that
see snow will have a chaneover to rain this afternoon.

Today will be the first winter driving challenge for a lot of people in Vermont and some other areas of the interior Northeast today as a nor'easter continues to push in.

Oh sure, some mountain towns and northern New Hampshire and Maine already had tough winter driving back on  Wednesday, but a lot more of us will experience it today.

Plus, there's strong winds, a cold rain and maybe even some freezing rain to talk about with this storm.

SNOW ALERT

The shield of precipitation with this nor'easter was just moving into far southern Vermont as of 6:30 a.m. today and moving steadily northward.

As the rain moves into relatively dry air over Vermont, it will cool the air enough so that the rain will very quickly change to snow for a time. Or, in some places it will just start as snow.

Depending on where you are this morning and early afternoon,  the snow will come down pretty hard for awhile. That's especially true away from the Champlain Valley.

A winter weather advisory has been posted for most of Vermont away from the Champlain Valley. One to four inches of wet snow is likely in the advisory area. Since the snow will come down pretty hard for awhile, even the main roads in somewhat higher elevations will get slippery for a time.

A lot of us don't have our snow tires on yet, and we haven't driven on icy roads since April, so I'm anticipating plenty of traffic accidents today. I'd stay home if you can.

The winter weather advisory is also up for the Adirondacks.

The Champlain Valley will be a bit warmer, so there's likely to be much less snow there. Roads should stay wet. However, a BIG caveat. I've been sometimes surprised by how much the air can cool  at the onset of a storm like this. I'd be on alert for a slippery road surprise later this morning  even in the Champlain Valley. It's not guaranteed, but it's something to watch.

Pretty much everywhere in Vermont except in the  highest elevations, the snow will change back to rain during this afternoon.

STRONG WINDS 

Many nor'easters bring strong downslope winds to the western slopes of the Green Mountains, and this one will be no exception.

Many areas outside the Champlain Valley face an inch or two of
wet snow today. 

The strongest winds look like they will be in eastern Rutland and eastern Addison counties. The wind there will really pick up later this afternoon as precipitaton lightens up a bit.

Although today won't be nearly as bad a windstorm as some classic ones, like what happened last October, this one has its special risks.

Some leaves are on the trees and they will be burdened by that wet snow that is coming in. Add wind gusts to 55 mph or so and you've got a real risk of some power failures in the areas with the highest winds.

Elsewhere in Vermont, expect some raw, gusty winds but nothing too extreme. Just an unpleasant day, for sure.

FREEZING RAIN

Nor'easters sometimes bring freezing rain, but it's extremely rare to get freezing rain in October. But some areas face that risk, believe it or not. As it cools down tonight, light rain will likely start to freeze in parts of the Adirondacks, and also maybe in the eastern half of Vermont. Especially in mid and higher elevations.

There won't be a tremendous amount of ice, but it will be enough to make roads locally slippery again. And in isolated spots, a few branches might come down if they are loaded with remaining leaves and ice. The Champlain Valley should escape the iee and just deal with a cold overnight light rain.

THE STORM ELSEWHERE

As is usual with nor'easters, the coast gets hammered. High wind warnings and coastal flood alerts are up all along the coast from Maryland north.

The greatest storm surge with this storm will coincide with high tide later this morning in parts of coastal New Jersey and Long Island. Some pretty major and damaging coastal flooding seems like a good bet in these locations.  Big time beach erosion is also in the cards.

The coastal flooding isn't expected to be quite as bad further north in New England, but the winds along the shoreline will be worse. Winds as high as 60 mph will down trees and power lines along the coast. Flash flood watches are also up in parts of southern New England because the rain will be quite heavy down there, much heavier than up here in Vermont.

Up in Quebec, snow, ice and rain will affect travel later today and tonight, says Environment Canada.  There could be some flooding near Quebec City on Sunday during high tide,

THE OUTLOOK

Back here in Vermont, the temperature will gradually creep back up toward near normal temperatures over the next week but the pattern looks active. Showers remain in the forecast through Monday. After a brief break around Tuesday, showers return, with maybe some steadier, heavier rain Thursday.

Believe it or not, after a wet October, soil moisture in northern Vermont is still definitely on the dry side. All this precipitation is a good thing

A Warm Vermont Weather Record In The Middle Of A Cold Snap

Thin sheets of ice from Wednesday's snow began sliding off my roof in
St. Albans, Vermont then froze in place Thursday afternoon as
temperatures dipped below freezing. Pretty odd for an
afternoon in October. 

No doubt we in Vermont know it's been cold lately. A couple weeks after we endured or enjoyed humid, record warmth in the 80s, it's been generally cold, drizzly and at times snowy.

But yesterday, on what was the coldest day of this chilly period so far, Burlington, Vermont set yet another warm record. The city somehow made it through the day without getting below freezing.

The temperature dipped to 32 degrees in Burlington early this morning, making it the latest first freeze of the autumn on record. Or at least the latest since 1941, when weather record keeping moved away from warmish Lake Champlain to the Burlington International Airport.

The relative warmth also tied the record for the most number of days between the last spring freeze and the first autumn freeze. That's 184 days, tying the record set just last year.

Most of Vermont, most of New England for that matter, has had freezes already. Burlington hung in there above freezing in recent days due to both its proximity to Lake Champlain and an overabundance of cloudy nights. Cloudy nights tend to be warmer than clear ones.

I had to laugh a bit as Burlington set that "warm" record. The "high" temperature at my house in St Albans barely rose above freezing and only briefly. Much of the afternoon was a bit below freezing. Some snow that fell Wednesday lingered on the ground and on my roof all day.

I was surprised by a thin crust on the top of the soil in my raised beds late yesterday afternoon. Yes, the top layer of that soil froze yesterday afternoon here in St. Albans. I don't remember if I've ever seen frozen ground like that in October, especially in the afternoon.

Today will be a bit better, with some sun boosting temperatures to the upper 30s to low 40s. That's still really chilly for this time of year, but an improvement over yesterday.

Then, on Saturday, we'll still have to contend with that nor'easter coming up the coast. Near the onset of the precipitation Saturday morning, it will probably snow in many locations, even in the valleys.

 It will change to rain pretty much everywhere during the afternoon, but there will probably be a period of slippery roads for a time Saturday as it snows fairly hard, and accumulates on roadways, especially in higher elevations.

There's little if any chance of truly sunny weather at least into the middle of next week, but at least it's going to warm up slightly. By midweek, highs will reach the low 50s. Not totally impressive, but at least that's close to normal for this time of year and an improvement over my frozen raised beds and icy walkway.

"Snoliage" Day Past; Still Cold, Future Snow Threat Diminished

A bush in my back yard in St. Albans, Vermont gets dusted with
snow Wednesday morning. 

As of 8:15 this morning, most of the 0.7 inches of snow that fell on my St. Albans, Vermont property yesterday had melted.

The early shot of winter isn't quite over, as I noted a special weather statement from the National Weather Service in South Burlington alerting us to spotty freezing drizzle (ugh!) in the northeast quarter of the state.

Except in the Northeast Kingdom, yesterday's snowfall, while pretty, was not substantial. I did see a report of 5.1 inches in Derby Center and 4.5 inches in Holland, with a smattering of six inch totals over some high elevations.

Northern New Hampshire and Maine were the big "winners' in this storm. Upton, Maine had a foot of snow, and Berlin, New Hampshire was close with 11 inches.

Sugar maple leaves dusted in snow
yesterday in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Some New England ski areas are already in operation. Killington opened nearly a week ago. Mount  Snow in southern Vermont plan its earliest opening in its 64-year history this coming Saturday.

Also coming Saturday is that nor'easter type storm we've been talking about.  As forecasts keep getting adjusted, it doesn't look like it will be a huge snow producer, except possibly on the highest peaks.

It looks like there might be some snow and sleet at the onset of the storm Saturday, even on some valley floors. But warmish air will move in aloft, and we'll have a cold rain instead for most of Saturday night.

Another storm might get going midweek, but nobody's sure if it will come close enough to give us substantial precipitation, and what form that precipitation might take.

In any event, scroll through the photos of the "snoliage" yesterday in this post, because it does have its beauty. I even did a short pano of the snow falling around my house yesterday, which is included below.

The skies cleared for a time in the late afternoon, which quickly melted a lot of the snow, but added some to the beauty around me.

Snow meling in my garden in late afternoon sun yesterday amid
fall foliage.

The sun came out late Wednesday afternoon but my back deck in St.
Albans, Vermont was not as inviting as usual, given that it was
coated in snow 

Here's a very short video of the snow falling around my house in St. Albans, Vermont yesterday:

Snowy Northern New England Might Get Even Snowier Over The Weekend

Snoliage in my St. Albans, Vermont yard this morning. 

New England's first winter storm warning of the season was in effect last night and this morning in much of northern and central Maine, as a strengthening storm moved northeastward in the Gulf of Maine.

The snow extended westward into Vermont and northern New York. As of 9 a.m. a dusting of snow, measured at 0.6 inches had accumulated at my St. Albans, Vermont house.

There are starting to be reports of much more snow in higher elevations, especially further east in Ne England. Norton, Vermont reported 5.5 inches of fresh snow at an elevation of 1,660 feet. Orleans, Vermont reported 4.5 inches. Randolph, New Hampshire reported 11 inches.

By the way, the storm, as it was forming over New England yesterday, was pretty dynamic. It spun off a tornado in Lincoln, Rhode Island, another in Sandwich, Massachusetts (the first Cape Cod tornado since 1977) and strong thunderstorms were reported across much of central and southern New England. Definitely an odd day yesterday.

The snow should taper off this afternoon, and we'll remain in our cold regime with some mountain snow showers continuing into Wednesday.. However, if you like snow, there's a chance that you'll love this coming weekend.

A riot of snow and fall foliage in my St. Albans, Vermont
yard this morning. 

This dynamic weather pattern is continuing. A deep dip in the jet stream will inspire the formation of a nor'easter.

The remnants of Hurricane Willa will help juice this system, but it won't be the main ingredient for the storm. There's plenty of energy and moisture with the weekend system as it heads north.

Temperatures are going to be marginal here in the interior Northeast, so it's going to be hard to figure out if it will be mostly rain, mostly snow, other mixes or what.

At this point, there's the potential for a heavy wet snow in parts of Vermont and surrounding areas. If this wet snow develops, it is obviously most likely in the  higher elevations.

Heavy, wet snow often leads to power failures, so keep that in mind. Plus, there's leaves remaining on a few trees here and there, so that could make it worse.

On top of that, yet another nor'easter looks like it will be a good possibility next Tuesday. That has the potential to dump more heavy wet snow, or a cold rain on us once again.

I suppose we need the moisture. Although it's been a wet month, we still need the rain. A drought is ongoing in northern Vermont, despite the wet weather. If I dig down into the soil around my house in St. Albans, I encounter dry soil.

But this early in the season, I'd rather the precipitation come at us at rain, not snow, but I don't get to choose, do I?

Another Hurricane Abruptly Turns Into Monster. And Will Nor'easter Result

Satellite image of what was Category 5 Hurricane Willa off
the western Mexican coast on Monday. 

Following a dangerous and increasing trend in recent years, Hurricane Willa blew up into a monster off the west coast of Mexico between Sunday and Monday.

It's going to come ashore today in southwestern Mexico, and I imagine we're going to hear a lot of news about destruction in that neck of the woods in the next few days. It'll come ashore north of Puerto Vallarta.

Willa went from a humdrum tropical storm to a Category 5 monster in just two days. That's incredibly rapid intensification.  Waters off the Mexican coast are running one to two degrees warmer than normal, and that certainly helped with the intensification.

That type of explosive development seems to be a trend in tropical systems.

Willa might be an indication that rapidly intensifying hurricanes will likely become more common with global warming. There won't necessarily be more hurricanes than there used to be, but a greater proportion of them will intensify really quickly.

There's more research on this trend. A 2016 paper from MIT examined this.

Reports the Category 6 weather and climate blog:

"MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel explained that not only will global warming make the strongest hurricanes stronger, it will also increase how fast they intensify."

That's especially dangerous when the intensification comes just as the hurricane is getting ready to make landfall. We saw that with Hurricane Harvey in Texas last year and Hurricane Michael earlier this month in the Florida Panhandle.

Emanuel's argument makes sense. If the overall atmospheric conditions are favorable for a hurricane, warmer water will more efficiently feed the hurricane, making it intensify more quickly. Warmer ocean water is widely expected to be around as climate change continues to take hold.

When a hurricane intensifies greatly just before coming ashore, these monsters would catch people in the storm zone off guard. They might be expected a so-so storm and instead getting something more powerful. That happened with Michael this month on the Florida Panhandle.

According to the Category 6 weather and climate blog:

"The analysis found that the odds of a hurricane intensifying by 70 mph or greater in the 24 hours just before landfall were about once every 100 years in the climate of the late 20th century. But in the climate of the year 2100, these odds increased to once every five to ten years."

That might sound like a whole lot. But as we saw with Hurricane Michael, this type of intensification is beyond catastrophic.

In the case of Willa, the explosive intensification occured when the storm was a fair distance offshore. It looks like it peaked yesterday with top winds of 160 mph. As is typical with hurricanes, Willa has rearranged the thunderstorms around the eye of the storm. This tends to weaken the top winds, but spreads strong, dangerous winds over a wider area, and can make the storm surge worse.

Willa was down to 130 mph this morning, and wind speed will probably drop a little more before landfall. But it will still be a serious, life-threatening hurricane.

The remnants of Willa will cross through Mexico and into southern Texas, spreading more unwelcome rain in an area of the Lone Star State that has had far too much rain and flooding lately.

The ghost of Willa will then run eastward across the Gulf Coast and become an ingredient to the formation of what looks like the season's first nor'easter.  It will make a run up the East Coast over the weekend.

It's too soon to determine what exactly that nor'easter will do, but it could have implications here in Vermont later Saturday and especiallly Sunday.   We have a good chance of a cold rain, maybe some wind, and maybe some snow in the higher elevations. We don't yet how far to the east the storm will go, so we don't know how heavy the precipitation might be.

We'll know more by about Thursday.

This nor'easter will come just about on the anniversary of last October's nor'easter, which brought one of the worst and destructive windstorms on record to parts of Vermont. We're quite sure whatever this weekend's nor'easter does, it won't be as bad as last year's.

A "New" Weather Alert This Winter: Snow Squall Warning

A big pileup in Toronto, Canada in 2015 was caused by a snow squall.

Snow flurries dusted much of Vermont yesterday. None were heavy, and none came in the form of the more dangerous heavy snow squall.

But snow squalls are inevitable, and they'll happen this winter. They're basically intense, short-lived localized bursts of very heavy snow.

They are dangerous because they can lead to sudden white outs and suddenly iced over roads on highways. You can go from clear and dry to icy and very blurry in an instant.

Seven National Weather Service offices, including the one here in Vermont, tested a new snow squall warning system last winter, and now everywhere in the nation that can get snow squalls will be subject to snow squall warnings.

The snow squall warnings are much like severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings. They'll usually cover a small area, such as a county or small collection of counties. The warnings will tell you where the snow squall is, where it's heading, which highways it will affect, and what to do about it.

For instance, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington might issue something roughly like this:

"Snow Squall Warning for Chittenden and Franklin Counties. At 1:30 p.m a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from Alburgh, Vermont to Plattsburgh and Port Kent, New York, moving east at 40 mph.
Hazard: Heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts to 35 mph. Source: Radar indicated. Impact: Dangerous, life-threatening travel.
This snow squall will be near St. Albans at 1:40 p.m., South Hero by 1:45 p.m and Burlington at around 1:55 p.m. Consider avoiding or delaying travel until the snow squall passes your location. If you must travel, use extra caution and allow extra time. Rapid changes in visibillity and slick road conditions may lead to accidents."

Your weather radio or other weather warning device will go off when a snow squall warning is issued for your area, just like it does when a severe thunderstorm is bearing down on you.

The NWS in Burlington, as I recall, issued one snow squall warning last winter during the experimental phase of this program. I'm sure we'll hear more this winter.

Weather radar has gotten much better at picking up localized hazards like snow squalls. There's better satellite data, improved Doppler radar, and more accurate weather models that help the National Weather Serice detect snow squalls and other hazards.

Snow squalls are a big cause of often fatal and large scale highway crashes. With all these things in mind, the National Weather Service decided snow squall warnings make sense. I wholeheartedly agree.

Will This Autumn's Baked Alaska Gives Us Vermonters A Frigid Winter?

Will a weird autumn Alaska heat wave give us Vermonters a frigid
winter? It's possible. This photo shows a frigid January day in 2015,
in St. Albans, Vermont, the last time a warm northeastern
Pacific Ocean influenced the weather, It was really cold here.. 

There are all sorts of predictions for what this winter will be like, ranging from warm and dry to frigid and snowy and everything in between.

It's always hard to forecast a winter. It's even tougher this year, with a weak El Nino possibly influencing things, and weather patterns in the Arctic still making up their minds

One intriguing clue to this winter is the return of "The Blob."  

No, it's not a horror movie. But for those who don't like frigid winters, it could be somewhat horrible.

Here's what I'm trying to explain: There's been a huge and persistent and warm ridge of high pressure over and near Alaska throughout this autumn. This has caused record warmth across that region. An autumn Baked Alaska.

Fairbanks, Alaska has yet to see so much as a flake of snow so far this year. That's by far a record for the latest first snow. Nome, Alaska should have had about 20 freezes so far this autumn. This year, they've had one. So far this month, Anchorage is running ten degrees warmer than normal.

This warm high pressure system has heated up the northeastern Pacific Ocean. This area of toasty water has come to be known as The Blob. As the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang points out, this can really chill us in the eastern United States.

The Blob last made an appearance in the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15. You remember the talk of "Polar Vortexes" those winters, and how cold it was over Vermont and the rest of the Northeast. The winter of 2015 was also when Boston had its epic snow siege. 

Those extreme winters were created in part by "The Blob."  The warm northeastern Pacific Ocean forced the jet stream over western North America northward. That caused a big dip in the jet stream downstream, over the eastern United States. That led to repeated Arctic outbreaks in the winters of 2014 and 2015.  It also led to the hottest year on record in the Pacific Northwest, under that warm ridge.

Snow siege in Boston, Massachusetts, 2015. Warm northeastern
Pacific Ocean water helped cause an intense winter in
the Northeast. Photo by Charles Krupa/AP

The Capital Weather Gang assures us The Blob might not hang on like it did in the winters of 2014 and 2015. In 2016, it looked like The Blob was reasserting itself, but it dissipated. This year, the huge warm high pressure ridge over Alaska is showing signs of breaking down.

If it does break down and stay broken down, that will open the door to big Pacific Ocean storms. The storms will mix up the water in The Blob zone, bringing cold water up from down below. The warm blob will disappear and no longer be a factor in our winter.

There's no way to tell for sure whether this will happen or not. It's just one piece of the puzzle for a complicated winter forecast.

For the next week here in Vermont, it will sure be wintry. Temperatures will stay 10 to 15 degrees below normal most days, and the threat of snow showers will be almost ever-present, especially in the high elevations.

Beyond that, who knows?

Believe It Or Not, A Dust Storm In Greenland

Satellite view of a dust storm in Greenland of all places. Yep, they
can happen there and it's NOT global warming

We all think of Greenland as an incredible cold, forbidding place. It's basically an enormous pile of ice.

But as the Weather Channel points out, you can actually get dust storms up there. A satellite passing overhead recently took a photo of one.

These dust storms aren't anything huge like you see in the Desert Southwest or near the Sahara Desert or something like that. But they do get cranking up in Greenland.

They get going close to the coast, where snow and ice usually melt away during the summer.

Here's how it all happens:

Water from melting glaciers flows into a flood plain, then either recedes or evaporates. The sediment left behind consists of a very fine powder called glacial flour, which is created by the grinding of glaciers and pulverizing rock.

When the glacial flour dries out, strong winds can send it airborne, creating these far northern dust storms.

Unlike seemingly everything else that goes on in Greenland, which seems to be the go-to bellwether for climate change, the dust storms have nothing to do with global warming.

These little Greenland dust storms have been reported over many decades. Satellite photos rarely capture them because it's usually too cloudy to see them. This time, the skies cleared and the satellite got a nice shot of this dust storm.

Tornadoes Are Appearing Farther East Than They Used To

Part of a rotating mini supercell looking north from Sheldon, Vermont on
May 4. This storm did NOT produce a tornado, though a tornado
watch was in effect at the time and a twister hit New Hampshire
that day. Tornaodes are increasing in the eastern U.S.

In this here blog thingy, I've remarked about the unusual number of tornadoes in the Northeast in 2018.

There's certainly no additional ones on the immediate horizon, but this year's Northeast mini-tornado alley might be part of a larger thing.

Scientists have concluded that over the past few decades there are somewhat fewer twisters in "Tornado Alley"-- places like Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas -- and more tornadoes east of the Mississippi River.

According to the Associated Press:

"Tornado activity is increasing most in Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa and parts of Ohio and Michigan, according to a study in Wednesday's journal Climate and Atmopheric Science."

Tornado frequency in the Northeast is low, but it has ticked upward.

"The study looked at changes since 1979. Everywhere east of the Mississippi, except the west coast of Florida, is seeing some increase in tornado activity. The biggest increase occurred in states bordering the Mississippi River," reports the AP.

This eastward trend in tornadoes is bad because the more eastern twisters are hitting in places that are more heavily populated than "Tornado Alley."  Also, people are more likely to live in mobile homes east of the Mississippi, and those homes are particularly vulnerable to tornadoes.

When you get a tornado warning, you shouldn't look for the tornado. You should get into a shelter. But people naturally do look for the twister, even though it's a dangerous idea. In the East, it's harder to see a tornado coming because there are so many more trees in the way. That could make tornadoes deadlier, too.

The eastern tornadoes are also more likely to happen at night, when people might sleep through warnings or otherwise be unaware a twister is approaching.

Scientists aren't sure why there's an eastward shift in tornadoes and can't specifically pin it on global warming. But, say authors of this study, the shift if consistent with climate change.

Tornadoes often form along or near a "dry line" which is a sharp usually north to south line with very humid air to the east and very dry air to the west. Climate change seems to be shifting the average location of this dry line eastward, so it makes sense that tornadoes would form more to the east as well.

Scientists want to do more research to see if the eastern tornadoes are indeed part of global warming's effects, or whether something else is going on.

Winter In October To Last Awhile

Many Vermont webcam images this morning showed snow on the ground,
including here, with an image from Lincoln Peak at the
Sugarbush Ski Resort in Warren.

While working in a client's garden in Charlotte, Vermont yesterday, I saw and felt our plunge into an early winter like state.

I started a little after noon when the skies cleared and a warm sun popped out. I started working in a t-shirt.

Then, I worked through the afternoon adding layers of shirts as the temperature dropped. I finally gave up and went home in the late afternoon when it started to sleet.

A little sleet fell on Burlington, Vermont yesterday, too, making October 17 the first day of the winter season with frozen precipitation. It was just a trace. Nothing accumulated. But it's coming.

Vermont and most of the Northeast are in this spell of cold for awhile. Yes, we will get a nice squirt of mild air Friday afternoon into Saturday morning between cold fronts, but that's it for awhile. A relentless, quick series of cold fronts will come through Saturday through the first half of next week, keeping our temperatures well below normal.

I can certainly say the growing season is over. The immediate shore of Lake Champlain has stayed above freezing so far, but that's it. Otherwise, we're pretty much done gardening until spring.

If you like snow, you'll like this weather pattern. This morning, many areas of Vermont had at least a dusting of snow on the ground. We even heard a few reports of locally slick roads.

Coming up. there will be little or no accumulation in the valleys through this period, but snow flurries will reach valley floors from time to time. Especially Sunday. A light snow pack will continue to build in the mountains. Also, some of the more aggressive ski areas are making snow.

Killington Ski Resort always tries to be the first to open in the season. Usually that hits in October. True to form, Killington announced they are open for business for the season starting tomorrow, October 19.

Killington and other resorts will be able to make a lot of snow over the next few days, which might insulate them from any late season Indian Summers come November. We'll see on that one.

The cold fronts coming through will only throw light precipitation our way. There are hints of a somewhat more decent storm around October 26 or 27. Just for laughs and giggles, one computer model suggested that storm would dump a good foot or more of snow across most of Vermont.

Don't worry. That computer model looked like it was totally out of whack. My first guess - and at this point it's only a guess - that we'll get a middling rain storm around that time period, with maybe a little snow in the mountains. It's really too soon for snow shovels and snow days at school.

1,000+ People Still Missing More Than Week After Hurricane Michael

A NOAA aerial shot of Bay County, Florida after Hurricane Michael shows
"HELP" spelled out on a lawn. A man created the SOS sign out of fallen
trees. A niece found the aerial photo on line, leading to the rescue of
the uncle, his wife and a friend. 

Where are they?

About 1,100 people are still missing more than a week after Hurricane Michael smashed ashore in the Florida Panhandle, Reuters reports.

Most of those missing live in or near Panama City, and many of them are elderly, disabled, impoverished or live alone.

In other words, those are the very people who are paricularly vulnerable in hurricanes and even more vulnerable in a hurricane aftermath. They are more likely to have a harder time finding food, water, fuel, medicine and medical care after such a terrible storm.

That's why it's imperative to find them. Chances are they survived the hurricane but are at risk of dyin from the aftermath. Assuming they're still alive.

Reuters says:

"Teams made up of hundreds of volunteers with the Houston-based CrowdSource Rescue organization were seaching for more than 1,135 peopel who lost contact with friends or family."

A big part of the problem is a continued lack of cell phone service in the worst of the hurricane zone. Many of the missing people might be fine and are taking shelter with local neighbors or organizations. But worried friends and loved ones can't reach them because the cell phones aren't working.

That's the optimistic look. Who knows what kind of trouble some of them might be in?

So far, at least 27 people are confirmed dead from Hurricane Michael. We probably won't know for weeks the fate of those 1,100 people with whom we've lost contact.

Rural areas in the hurricane zone are still a tangled mess of fallen trees and debris. Roads are still blocked and people who live there can't be reached yet.

In the hardest hit coastal community, Mexico Beach, the number of missing has fallen to 3, down from dozens a few days earlier. Two confirmed deaths were reported in Mexico Beach, which normally has a population of 1,200. Many residents had wisely fled before the storm hit.

One rescue from the aftermath of Hurricane Michael had a very high tech and low tech happy ending. 

Amber Gee was scrolling through NOAA aerial images of the hurricane zone,  hoping to get a hint of how badly damaged homes belonging to friends and family were. She stopped in her tracks when she spotted an image that was clearly her grandmother's house, with the word "HELP" spelled out on the lawn.

The grandmother had fled, but Gee's uncle, his wife and a friend stayed at the house during the hurricane. They were stranded and isolated by fallen trees, so the uncle used some of the fallen trees to spell "HELP" on the lawn.

Gee called county emergency services, who hacked their way through the fallen trees to the house. The uncle, woman and neighbor are all OK.

Earlly Wintry Blast Means Strong Winds, Remarkably Chilly Days

A windy, chillyday with snowcapped mountains in tbe background
along Lake Champlain in Charlotte Vermont in October, 2016. Over the next
several days, it will be even chillier than the day depicted in this photo/

The weather pattern across much of the United States is remarkably wintry for mid-October.

For many, including us here in Vermont, that means gusty winds and a smattering of December like days strewn in with the lingering foliage.

The first good cold front of this weather regime was surprisingly windy overnight here in the North Country.

Forecasters had anticipated gusts well over 30 mph, with winds even stronger across northern New Hampshire and much of Maine.

Vermont definitely got into the windy act overnight, and the result was more than 8,000 homes and businesses without power across the state as of 7 a.m. or so.

Winds aloft were screaming out of the west, and some of that mixed down to the surface. The mountain tops really got blasted. The summit of Mount Mansfield gusted to 89 mph, and up on Whiteface Mountain, New York, it got up to 79 mph.

At slightly lower elevations, where most of us live, the winds were gusty enough to bring down a lot of trees, branches and power lines. Brookfield and Wells gusted to 54 mph and Montpelier reached 48 mph. Many, many places gusted past 40 mph.

The wind will gradually diminish during the course of the day, but we are stuck in that wintry pattern for the next week or week and a half or so. That means several cold fronts from the northwest. None will have much precipitation, but we'll have light rain and snow showers every couple of days.

Some cold fronts will bring incredibly cold air for this time of year. It'll generally stay windy, though not as gusty as last night. The winds will hold temperatures sort of, kind of, up at nights. We'll have a fair number of nights that get down into the 20s, but that's not totally out of whack for this time of year.

A few afternoons will be downright December-like, though. Thursday's highs will only get into the 30s, which will challenge record low maximum temperatures for the date. We'll just start to warm up Friday when another cold front will plunge us back into a taste of early winter for the upcoming weekend.

Snow has been falling in weird places, and not falling in places where it should. It snowed as far south as northern Texas yesterday. Meanwhile, no measurable snow has yet fallen  in normally frigid Fairbanks, Alaska.  Their first measurement snow, on average, is around September 27.

Overall, snowcover across North America is well above normal for this time of year. It's uncertain, but the Weather Channel posits that all this early snow, mostly in Canada, could create a pool of particularly cold air in that country. If that happens, we in the United States, especially the Great Lakes and Northeast, would be prone to more frequent and more harsh winter cold waves than usual.

That idea is not cast in stone, but it definitely could happen.

I'm not done with fall cleanup, not by a long shot. So let's all hope for some sort of Indian Summer in November. Could happen, right?

Why Did This Florida Home Survive Michael While Those All Around Are Gone?

The "Sand Palace" that nice blue Mexico Beach, Florida house in the
foreground, survived Hurricane Michael nicely while all those
around it were destroyed. The home was designed to withstand
the worst hurricanes. 

The New York Times had an interesting story this weekend about a beachfront house in Mexico Beach, Florida that survived Hurricane Michael with barely a scratch.

The entire story is a great read. But I'll summarize here.

You might have seen the video taken from helicopters or drones: All the houses around are gone, except for one happy blue house that looks ready for a beach party today.

The house, dubbed the "Sand Palace" was just built last year. It's owned by a guy named Russell King and his nephew, Dr. Lebron Lackey. They wanted to make sure the house was hurricane-proof.

"We wanted to build it for the big one," Lackey said. "We just never knew we'd find the big one so fast."

Building codes for houses in the Florida Panhandle are not as strict as those in South Florida. If you build a house near Miami, it has to be able to withstand 175 mph winds. Build your dream house in the Florida Panhandle, it only has to withstand 120 to 150 mph winds.

Most buildings in Mexico Beach, where Hurricane Michael came ashore, didn't stand a chance against the wind and epic storm surge.  The surviving "Sand Palace," on the other hand, was built to withstand 250 mph winds.

According to the New York Times:

"The house was fashioned from poured concrete, reinforced by steel cables and rebar, with additional concrete bolstering the corners of the house. The space under the roof was minimized so that wind could not sneak in underneath and lift it off. The home's elevation, on high pilings, was meant to keep it above the surge of seawater that usually accompanies powerful hurricanes"

The stairway to get into the Sand Palace were ripped away by Hurricane Michael. That was by design. If the stairs easily go, they wouldn't rip off part of the house with them. That helped preserve   the house's strength against the storm. King, Lackey and the New York Times gained access to the house via a ladder.

In the end, the Sand Palace suffered a tiny bit of water damage and one cracked window. That's it. Repairs to the structure would take a month, at most, and not cost much.

Of course, all this reinforcement costs money, and many people don't have the means to protect their homes like King and Lackey did with their Mexico Beach vacation home.

A beach house on a lovely sandy ocean shoreline is not a necessity. But houses belonging to people who live and work in the area are prone to storms like Michael. We know that homes well inland from the beach were destroyed by wind and storm surge.  How can people afford to protect their property from the next Michael?

I surely don't have an answer. I don''t think anybody else does either. As storms get more ferocious as the climate changes, this is becoming a more and more important question.

All these hurricane protections are not flawless, either. One design mistake and the whole house goes. Most houses around the Sand Palace were completely gone. One next door was still sort of there, but its roof and many of its walls had caved in. That badly damaged house was also supposedly built to withstand big hurricanes.

Ominously, there were two renters in that largely destroyed house. While the New York Times interviewed King and Lackey in the Sand Palace,  FEMA searchers were going through the wreckage of that next-door house. Nobody knows if those two people fled, survived and can't yet be found, or died in the storm.

Summer To Winter In Just A Week

First snow of the season Saturday at the snow measuring
stake near the summit of Mount Mansfield Vermont
Photo by Scott Braaten via a National Weather
Service post on Twitter 

This year, like many previous years, summer extended well into autumn here in Vermont.  Just last week, it was in the low 80s and humid, pretty typical for July, not October.

As you noticed, it's more seasonable this weekend. But our normal fall weather will descend right into winter this week. By Thursday, highs will only be in the 30s, typical of early December.

That's quite a transition.

When weather patterns change, they do change don't they.?

We are stuck in chilly weather for awhile. As it stands now, it's likely there won't be a return to mild weather until maybe the closing days of the month. Oh sure, there might be a couple comfortable days thrown in, but it is going to like November for a couple weeks.

There will even be a little snow. The air flow will be from the northwest, so there won't be a lot of moisture around to play with. But repeated cold fronts will throw light rain and snow showers at us every couple of days for the next ten days or so. Wednesday's cold front is strong, so that will be our first chance to see snowflakes on Vermont's valley floors.

By the way, it's even colder and snowier elseewhere. It was snowing across quite a bit of South Dakota, Minnesota and northwestern Iowa this morning. Snow is in the forecast at points remarkably far south over the next couple of days. Parts of Kansas, western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle are in for snow over the next 24 hours.

Record cold temperatures are expected by Monday in a stripe from Wyoming and South Dakota south to northern Texas.

This cold second half of October doesn't mean anything for what this winter will be like. It's really impossible to say whether this winter will be cold or warm, snowy or not.

If you like a foretaste of winter, this will be your week. If not, I bet we'll have some sort of Indian Summer before winter really sets in.

Are Swept Away Building Sites Gravestones From Hurricane Michael?

Dozens upon dozens of homes and businesses swept away in
Mexico Beach, Florida after Hurricane Michael

SATURDAY P.M. UPDATE

Some rather hopeful news from Reuters:

Searchers are really beginning to dig deeper into the nook and crannies in the worst of the Hurricane Michael zone and finding plenty of survivors

More than 500 of the roughly 2,100 people reported missing have been found alive. Officials expect to find many more survivors over the weekend.

Many of the missing were simply cut off by debris, wrecked homes, and cellular service cut off  by the storm.

Roughly 1,700 search and rescue workers were combing the wreckage this weekend. When they find survivors, they take pictures of them and forward the photos to worried relatives to ease their minds, Reuters said. .

Some of the stories are still harrowing, though. As Reuters reports:

"Rescue crews heard cries for help and cut into a mobile home crumpled by the storm in Panama City, freeing survivors who had been trapped inside for two days, Matthew Marchetti, co-founder of the Houston-based CrowdSource Rescue, said on Saturday."

This tells me the search is still definitely a rescue mission more than a body recovery mission, which is a good thing. Unfortunately, the death toll is still expected to rise, however.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

One of the most haunting images I've been seeing from the areas of Florida wiped out by Hurricane Michael are the swept-clean concrete slabs.

Aerial photos and videos show dozens and dozens of these flat slabs in Mexico Beach, Florida and elsewhere.

Each slab is where a house, condo, business or other building stood. The winds and storm surge swept everything away. You'd never know buildings stood there, save for those thin, flat slabs.

I'm getting more and more worried those slabs are symbolic gravestones. How many people stayed behind along the coast as Hurricane Michael roared in? And how many died?

At last check the death toll from Hurricane Michael was 17. Those deaths hit from Florida to Virginia, where Michael's last swipe unleashed high winds, tornadoes and flash flooding. The death toll of 17 is terrible, but seems relatively modest for a storm that ferocious.

But there are increasing signs that possibly, a lot more people died, which makes this whole story even more tragic.

There is so much debris and destruction in Mexico Beach and surrounding towns that relief workers and searchers are only just beginning to arrive and poke through the rubble.  If people died, I'm not sure they will ever find the bodies. Were they swept out to sea in the departing storm surge toward the end of the hurricane? Are they lost in the broken logs and sticks that before Michael were dense pine forests just inland?

ABC News reported yesterday there are a "tremendous number" of people still unaccounted for after the hurricane. Perhaps some of them are safe, scattered in shelters across the Southeast with no decent post-storm cell phone service to tell relatives where they are. That would be the best case scenario.

There are extreme challenges in the search for the dead and injured, Bay County, Florida Emergency Services Chief Mark Bowen told ABC on Friday. 

"Fire stations are destroyed, police stations are destroyed... Public safety agencies are only taking highest priority calls right now -- heart attacks, you know, major trauma. An enormous amount of 911 calls are going unresponded to because we've got this priority to search and rescue. So it's a terrible thing."

The Associated Press reported that one body had been found in Mexico Beach. But in one glimmer of hope, the AP says authorities have canceled plans, at least for now, to set up a temporary morgue to handle casualties. That suggests there might not be a huge number of deceased.

This is one of the most grim weather blog posts I have written, but it is facts, and we have to deal with them.

Here's a heartbreaking Washington Post video of Mexico Beach, showing the destruction, interviews with shell-shocked residents, all with the haunting background sounds of dozens of alarms blaring in shattered buildings:

Back Here in Vermont, Weather News And Changes During Michael Disaster

A hosta that hasn't been nipped by frost yet shows its fall colors
in my St. Albans, Vermont garden. It'll shrivel up with the
upcoming cold weather.

While we were watching the jaw-dropping disaster that was Hurricane Michael, we here in Vermont had some interesting weather for this time of year. Next, big changes are on the way.

Of course, our interesting weather in the Green Mountain State is nothing  like the extremes of Hurricane Michael. Which I'm sure is fine with every one of us.

Here in Vermont, we had a couple more record highs this week.

On Tuesday, Burlington tied its record high of 80 degrees for the date. Then Wednesday, we broke the record high by reaching 82 degrees, besting the previous record by two degrees.

Massena, New York also broke a record high with 82 degrees and Plattsburgh tied its record high of 81 degrees.

The 80 degree weather this week in Burlington means we've had 84 days this year with temperatures of 80 degrees or more. I think that's the second most on record, behind last year. I'll have to double check.

We have a new trend it seems for 80 degree weather in October. Six of the past eight Octobers in Burlington have had temperatures at or above 80. Before that, such warm weather will hit in roughly one of every six or seven Octobers.

Thursday was cooler with all the rain, but still humid. Dew point, which tell you whether it's uncomfortably humid or not, were in the upper 60s. So yeah, it was uncomfortably humid.

Plus, we set a new record. Burlington had 1.46 inches of rain, a record for the date. The northern Vermont drought stubbornly continues to hang on, at least somewhat, despite some rainy weather in recent weeks. So this helped.

If you like warm weather, I hope you liked this week, because a long lasting, cold change is on the way. The weather pattern is shifting big time, and a cool regime looks to take over. This generally cooler than normal regime looks like it could last at least to the end of this month, if not beyond that. That is at least if some of the long range models are correct.

By next week, most daily high temperatures across Vermont will be in the 40s, which is about ten degrees below normal. The mountains will become snowcapped. For the first time this autumn, the National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont last evening mentioned snow in the forecast, even in the valleys.

Don't worry, if it snows, it won't amount to much. But much of northern Vermont, including the lowlands, face a chance of snow and rain showers Wednesday night and Thursday. There might even be a few wet snowflakes mixed with light rain showers tomorrow morning.

There will be no heavy precipitation, either in the form or rain or snow, is coming anytime soon. The northwesterly flow that is bringing in this colder regime blocks moisture from the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico, so we'll have to wait some time for another burst of decent precipitation.