"Potential" Tropical Storm Is Really Being Hyped

Just one of many potential tracks for Wannabe Isias.  Expect
forecasts to shift around a lot in the coming days.

If I were to believe some media and social media posts, I'd thing a Category 999 hurricane was about to blow Florida out of existence.

Before we got on with this post, some facts to clear up.

I hope you understand that I know that hurricanes only go up to Category 5; there's no such thing a "Category 999."

Category 5 is the worst hurricane you can get.  There is currently no Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.   In fact, there are no hurricanes anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

It's possible a tropical system of some sort could affect Florida over the weekend, but we don't know for sure if that will happen, and if it does, how big a deal it would be.

So here's the non-hype version, as best as I understand it.  If you want more information beyone what I'm about to describe, check out what real live scientists are saying over at the National Hurricane Center. 

The hype you're hearing is prompted by something called "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine." As of this morning, it was causing really crappy weather way out there in the Lesser Antilles, and will probably do the same to Haiti and the Dominican Republic tomorrow.

They haven't given "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine" a name yet because it hasn't developed a well defined circulation.  It's just a mass of gusty thunderstorms that overall have some spin, but haven't congealed into a storm yet. But as of early this morning, it was getting close to that level.

When it does (or even if) it gets its act together, it will be named Isaias.  If you're curious, it's pronounced "ees-ah-EE-ahs."

As you're probably sick of hearing from me by now, forecasting the strength of direction of any tropical system can get tricky.

It's especially so with Wannabe Isaias.  It's a huge clump of thunderstorms, and where a center eventually forms will determine its path and strength.  Right now, even the folks at National Hurricane Center are throwing up their hands a bit with this one.

But they're giving it a try, because that's what they do.

If Wannabe Isaias gets it act together today, it might get punched down to a wannabe again if it hits the Dominican Republic directly.  The mountains there will screw it up.

If Wannabe Isaias detours around that mountainous island, it could keep getting stronger.

This is where the Florida hype comes in. Wannabe Isaias  could  cause trouble in places like Puerto Rico, the Virgin Island, maybe Cuba or the Bahamas.

Forecasts tracks as of this morning take this thing toward Florida, but remember what I just said: Where the center of Wannabe Isaias eventually establishes itself will determine a lot about its future path.

It could pass south of Florida and go into the Gulf of Mexico.  Maybe it will hit Florida. Or it'll curve north and then east and miss the United States entirely.  Note to Donald Trump: We don't know if Wannabe Isaias will affect Alabama. 

We just don't know any of this for certain yet.  Don't believe anyone who tells you they know for sure where this is going. They don't. At least not yet.  And don't even get me started with questions on whether Wannabe Isaias will affect Vermont and if it does, how so?  Use your Magic 8 ball for that one.

As mentioned above, we also don't know what kind of strength or lack thereof Wannabe Isaias will have.

So here's what you SHOULD do regarding Wannabe Isaias:

1. Continue monitoring the storm, especially if you live in or have interests in the Virgin Islands, Hait, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and Florida.  No need for any kind of panic, by the way.

2. It's early in the hurricane season.  If you live in hurricane prone areas, or flood prone areas, now is a great time to pop down to Home Depot or Lowe's or whatever to pick up your hurricane preparedness supplies. This is whether or not Wannabe Isaias amounts to anything. Wear your mask  into the stores, please!

3. Have a plan in case Wannabe Isaias or any other tropical storm or hurricane comes along.  If told to evacuate, where would you go?  Make it easy to grab important documents and medications and such if you have to go.  Think about what you would do with pets.  Add in some extra planning because of this Covid pandemic.

4.  If this thing does get close to you and the National Hurricane Center and local emergency managers start barking orders, like prepare or even evacuate, do what they say. It'll make it easier on everyone. Including yourselves.

Wintry Rest Of The Weekend For Vermont, Much Of Rest Of Nation

This is just one model of the potential storm on Sunday and Monday.
This run of the European model dumps a foot and a half of snow
on the Albany, New York Capital District and interior southern
New England. CAUTION: This is just one run and one model. I pretty much
guarantee the storm won't play out like this, but it gives an idea of
where the early thinking of where the storm might focus. Note
that it could go further north or south than this, or be stronger
or weaker than this.  Time will tell.

The well-heralded second, stronger storm of the Thanksgiving week is gathering strength this morning over the western half of the nation as part of a coast-to-coast ride that is providin and will continue to provide lots of ugly weather for most of the nation.

 It's a wide ranging, large storm, so almost everybody gets in on the action. 

After coming ashore in Oregon the other day as a powerful, deep windstorm, this one settled into the Southwest on Thanksgiving, dropping lots of rain, firing up strong thunderstorms and flash floods in southern California and Arizona.

There was even a tornado warning early this morning for parts of the Phoenix metro area.

This storm is also dumping boatloads of snow in higher elevations. Some snow even came down in not-so-high elevations.

Interstate 5 - The so called Grapevine in the mountains east of Los Angeles, shut down yesterday due to heavy snow and many stuck cars.

The storm is gathering itself, and will cause major trouble today and tomorrow through a huge area of the western and central United States.

Winter storm and blizzard warnings extend from Arizona, through the central Rockies and into a big, big portion of the northern Plains.

To its south, severe weather and possible tornadoes could break out in and around Louisiana Saturday.

This type of storm track usually has the action going by to our west and we Vermonters get a squirt of warm air ahead of the storm before the inevitable cold front with the storm comes through.

Not this time. The storm will take an unusual path. Instead of continuing on toward the Great Lakes, it seems the storm will take an abrupt right turn once it gets to about Nebraska. Then it will head east or even a little south of east  toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, where a new storm will develop, and turn into a pretty typical nor'easter.

There will be a nasty stripe of snow and ice north of the storm's path. It's not a fast mover, either, so there could be time to drop a lot of precipitation where it concentrates itself. 

It's unclear how far north the snow will get given the storm's kind of strange path Southern and central New England have the potential at least to get quite a dump.

Here in Vermont, the south could get a lot and the north would largely miss out.  Computer trends with this storm have trended a bit south, so if that prediction sticks, northern Vermont would only get a little snow Sunday night and Monday.

But, that's no guarantee.  If the storm jogs just a little north, the whole state could get a good dump of snow out of this. No promises yet either way.

OTHER ISSUES

Before we get to that, note that there's areas of freezing drizzle in Vermont this morning. If you've headed out to the silly Black Friday store buster deals, don't hurry too much. Roads are slick in spots.

Plus, whether or not we get snow in Vermont later Sunday into Monday, it's going to be wintry cold again. After a brief break in the days leading up to Thanksgiving, we're stuck back in the early start to winter.   It's going to be a long one, folks.

Snowstorm On Track To Hit Vermont, Surrounding Areas, Especially Mountains

Once again, here's that ever-present snow forecast map from
the National Weather Service in South Burlington, VT.
Click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see.
Yellow areas are forecast to get at least six inches of new snow.
The darkest shades of orange and red could see a foot.
As always, this forecast is subject to change. 

It's been a fairly mild morning around much of Vermont. Here in St. Albans, Vermont it's been in the low 40s, the smell of mud and boiling maple sap is in the air.

Spring, right?

Not so fast. Yesterday, when I said there's a snowy interruption to spring, I meant it, and that forecast hasn't changed. Most of us should get ready for at least some snow between tonight and Saturday afternoon.

Some of us, especially if you're in the higher elevations, could get lots of it.

I'll go over expected amounts in a bit, but do understand there's an extremely high bust potential here. Temperatures through much of the storm, especially tonight and through the day Friday, will be marginal enough where it could go either way between rain and snow.

That means for most of Vermont outside the higher elevations, if it's just one to three degrees cooler than expected, we'll get a lot more snow than forecast. If it's a couple degrees warmer than forecast, there will be less snow.

On top of that, the second half of the storm will feature a windflow that will bring heavier snow to the western slopes of Green Mountains, the summits and a good part of the rest of northern Vermont north of Route 2, away from Lake Champlain and other deeper valley floors.

The end result will be a wide range of snow totals from this storm in Vermont, New York and New Hampshire. Here's the current thinking, with an enormous assist from the National Weather Service in South Burlington. 

For instance, we can probably expect anywhere from one to 20 inches of new snow, depending upon where you are in Vermont. OK, we should narrow that down.

The least amount of snow looks like it will be in the lower Connecticut River Valley below White River Junction. There, it will probably be two inches or less.

Almost everywhere else is a wildcard. If things go according to plan - and chances are they won't - the Champlain Valley and the lowlands of Rutland and Bennington Counties will get off with only maybe three inches of snow, give or take. (Again, a couple degrees colder and these areas get into the snowstorm game.)

The northern Champlain Valley, say around St. Albans, and north-central Vermont, say around Montpelier, Barre and Northfield are a real tossup. These communities might get as little as three inches of snow or as much as 10 inches.

In fact, different elevations in the same town will have wildly varying amounts of snow. I can see a possible scenario out of this where, for instance, St. Albans gets an inch of snow on the shore of St. Albans Bay and eight inches atop St. Albans Hill. That's a change in elevation of only about 800 feet.

The mountains, of course, will have mostly snow out of this. Some of the ski areas in central and northern Vermont could easily get a foot or more of snow.  The ski areas look like they will stay open a while longer, huh?

The Adirondacks will make out like a bandit with this storm, too. The way it looks now, many areas getting a solid foot of snow from this storm. Central New York could get six inches of wet snow, too. Coastal areas will get a quick bout of heavy rain. It was already raining hard in places like New Jersey this morning from this storm, and flood watches are up for that neck of the woods.

Back here in Vermont, the bulk of the snow will come down while temperatures are not far from 32 degrees. That means the snow will be wet and heavy.  That, combined with the fact winds will become strong from the northwest later Friday night and Saturday, raises the risk of power failures.

The snow will taper off Saturday, starting in southern valleys in the early morning and reaching the northern mountains by nightfall or thereabouts. It will be quite wintry Saturday, with snow showers for many areas, blowing snow and temperatures staying near or below freezing.

After a seasonable day Sunday (40s), it will get wintry cold again early next week with maybe an inch or two of new snow in spots Sunday night and Monday with the cold front. It might start to warm up again late next week. (I'll believe it when I see it.)

There does seem to be an increased risk of spring flooding in and around Vermont with this situation. True, there's not much snow left in the valleys, at least before this upcoming storm, but that's deceptive.

The snow is one to two feet deep in the mid-elevations. For example, Greensboro had 24 inches on the ground this morning and Waterbury had 20 inches. The amount of water locked in this snow is higher than you'd expect, with perhaps the equivalent of four to eight inches of rain. 

Go up in elevation just a bit further to 3,000 feet or so and there's the equivalent of 10 inches of rain that has to run down from the mountains. This storm will add to these totals, for sure.

The spring thaw is delayed further by the cold early next week. In a little more than a week, we'll be in to the very end of March and April will dawn. By then, there's the risk it could get quite warm. There could also be a nice big rain storm, who knows? If that happens, flooding would be a serious threat around the Green Mountain State.

That's by no means guaranteed, but it's something to watch.

Winter Hangs Tough, At Least Until Around March 10

A burst of snow adds another dusting of snow to my St. Albans yard
last week. We're on the cusp of March, but winter weather will
last into the new month.  

Friday is the start of meteorological spring, when weather geeks, climatologists and that sort of crowd say the new season begins.

It's arbitrary. Considering the period March 1 to May 31 as spring is a convenient way to compare and constrast current and past seasons. Since records are kept month to month, it makes sense.

Climatologists be damned, don't count on spring weather arriving this Friday, here or in most places in the nation.

A very large blast of Arctic air will be just beginning to enter the nation via the northwestern Great Plains on Friday. This great gush of frigid air will engulf most of the nation east of the Rockies, except maybe Florida.

Granted, this Arctic outbreak will be far from the Worst Ever. It will be the kind of cold wave that often occurs in early March. There might be some daily record low temperatures broken in the northern Plains and perhaps a few other places, but it's not coming close to be historic.

Here in Vermont, the Arctic air won't have arrived yet by Friday, so the optimists among us might feel a subtle taste of spring as temperatures rise into the seasonable upper 20s and low 30s. That won't last.

Before we get to Friday we've got enough winter weather to get through. A small storm is scooting by to our south, and it's about to snow in much of Vermont. You'll notice as of mid-morning today that the overcast is lowering and thickening.

It'll start this afternoon. By tomorrow new snow accumulation in Vermont will be modest: It looks like it will be a dusting to an inch north of Route 2; about 1 to 3 inches between Route 2 and Route 4, and three to five inches south of Route 4.

January-like cold will hang on into Thursday. It'll be in the single numbers above or below zero tonight and tomorrow night, and in the upper teens and low 20s Thursday.

Things get murky with the forecast going into the weekend. Storminess seems likely, but how it will shake it out is not easy to tease out. There seems like there will be some snow, possibly mixed with a little rain Saturday afternoon and night. It's too soon to talk accumulation.

There's even more question marks come later Sunday and Monday. There's some indications there could be a pretty good snowstorm, but the forecast models are all over the place with this. Some say a lot of snow, some say a little, some say nothing.

So, here in Vermont, right now the best I can do is say between Sunday and Monday we'll get between a trace and two feet of snow. That's worthless, right?

That Arctic air that I talked about will flood into Vermont Sunday or Monday and stay around for a good part of next week. The cold won't be as intense as it will be in the northern Plains. The sun angle is higher now than it was in December and January, so the air will modify under that sun on its trip to the Northeast.

Still, it will be colder than normal by both March and January standards.

There are preliminary signs that things might move toward spring in much of the nation around March 10 or so. The flow of Arctic air look like it wants to get largely cut off after that date. There's no guarantees on this, and it's hard to tell how warm it will get. It is reason for hope, though.

Meteorological spring or not, milder weather is inevitable as we move through March, so the chances of welcome thaws are going to increase, whether or not the weather pattern cooperates or not.

Signs point to continued storminess well into March, so things could be a pretty wild wide through much of the month.

Quickie Update On Weekend Winter Storm

The latest schematic on where the expected storm will be
on Sumday. Without getting complicated for you, areas
with a lot of black lines close together will
likely be windy

Yes, it's already Wednesday, but we still can't totally pin down what will happen with the heralded, advertised, hyped storm we'll get this weekend here in Vermont.

As is usual four days ahead of a storm, we're in what I call windshield wiper forecast mode. That's when the computer forecast models, and many meteorologists, go back and forth, and back and forth, on where the storm will go.  

It's going inland! That means heaviest snow in Vermont. No, wait! Further east! Not as much snow for us then.  Oops! New forecast model, we're in the snow crosshairs again.  Then we've got a new forecast model. The storm is further east again.

On and on it goes until we get closer to the actual day of the storm.

As an aside, computer forecast models usually get the gist of how a storm will behave days before the action actually occurs. But something went horribly off the rails with one computer model last night. It forecasted no snow in Vermont, but three inches or so in Miami, Florida, a couple inches perhaps in Havana, Cuba, and as much 18 inches of fresh, powdery snow in Bermuda.

Don't worry. The actual Sunday forecast for Miami, Havana and Bermuda are highs of 79, 81, and 70 degrees respectively, so it won't snow in those places. People taking tropical vacations in these places can relax.

Something went horribly wrong with a computer forecast
model yesterday. This one is predicing accumulating
snow in Miami and Havana, and as much a
a foot and a half of snow in Bermuda.
Needless to say this definitely won't happen. 

Because of the windshield wiper effect I described above, nobody is sure how much snow we'll get out of this Saturday night and Sunday. Here's what we know about the effects of this storm on Vermont so far:

1. It's going to snow Saturday night and Sunday.

2. We don't yet know how much accumulation we'll get, but there's a high potential of at least a plowable snow.

3. The snow will probably have a high fluff factor, because it's going to be cold.

4. That cold will be miserable during the storm, with high temperatures Sunday, especially in the north, hovering near 10 degrees. And the wind will pick up.

5. After the storm goes by, Sunday night through Tuesday will be brutal, with easily the coldest air so far this winter. High temperatures Monday will probably be near 0, and there's a very good chance lows during this period will be mostly in the teens and 20s below zero. Strong winds Sunday night and Monday will create dangerous wind chills.

6. No thaws are in sight for at least the next 10 days.

Before we get to the weekend storm snow showers and maybe a snow squall or two will zip by with an Arctic cold front today, so watch out for that on the roads.

After a cold Thursday,  a weak storm will toss a dusting to three inches of snow on us Friday. Then, after that, the main show arrives.

Two Very Tricky Storms To Hit Vermont, Surrounding Areas

High elevations in Vermont could look this wintry by Saturday morning
It's possible there could be scenes like this even in the
valleys by the middle of next week. 

This is the kind of week that gives meteorologists headaches.

Two strong, but very tough to forecast storms are heading our way, and things are almost guaranteed to not work out exactly how meteorologists think they will.

But they're making the attempt to predict things, and we'll see how they do.

The first storm comes in Friday.  We're in the midst of a cooling trend, and by the time the precipitation is getting ready to start during the day, temperatures will be close to 40 degrees in most areas.

No problem, you'll say. That just means we'll have a cold rain.

Not so fast. As the National Weather Service in South Burlington points out, the precipitation at the start will be falling into dry air. As the air moistens from the precipitation, it will cool. So the rain will change to snow. Or at least could, if it gets cold enough. That seems like almost a sure bet in the mountains, but it's unclear if it will get cold enough in the valleys for snow.

The early betting is the rain will change to snow briefly in the valleys before the air begins to turn just warm enough to switch it back to a cold rain Friday night.

Up a little higher, above 1,000 feet or so, it's even trickier. Temperatures will be near freezing through much of the atmosphere, and that temperature profile will be complex with layers of subfreezing and above-freezing air.

That means there could be a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain above 1,000 feet Friday night. Computer models are trending a bit colder, so it might be more snow than ice up high. Time will tell. The Adirondacks are most likely to stay cold enough for snow.

Another factor that makes this upcoming storm so hard to forecast is that it will have a lot of moving pieces. One storm will get going quickly near the Great Lakes Friday and move into Quebec. A secondary storm looks like it will get going along the coast. And an upper level low pressure system will play round with temperatures several thousand feet above us, so that adds to uncertainty as to what exactly will fall from the sky.

Whatever falls, there will be quite a bit of it. The two storms will force air from different directions to collide near us. When that happens, air rises. When air rises, it wrings out moisture and does a great job of dropping that moisture as precipitation.

Which means we stand a good chance of getting another half inch to inch of rain or melted snow and ice.

The storm will move off toward the Northeast into Canada Saturday leaving us with a windy, cold day with snow showers in the mountains. Lake effect snow off of Lake Ontario might enhance the snow a bit in the Adirondacks and maybe the northern Green Mountains.  I guess the early season skiers will be happy.

One forecast map for next Tuesday. It's uncertain exactly where
that storm along the East Coast will  be, but it
could provide a snowstorm for inland areas of the Northeast.

Sunday looks quiet, but frigid by November standards. It will likely be the first day this winter that fails to get above freezing all day. Normal high temperatures this time of year, by the way, are in the upper 40s.

Next up, another strong storm due Tuesday and Tuesday night. It looks like it will be a coastal storm, or it will track up through central New England. Or, it could even go further west. It's definitely uncertain.

If it goes along the coast, that would bring Vermont the first big snowstorm of the season. Even in the valleys. If it goes more inland, it would be a mix of precipitation and/or another shot of cold rain. Time will tell.

What you've read in this entire post is subject to some adjustments. As I said, it's a complex weather scenario Friday through next week. As more information comes in, forecasts will be adjusted.

Whatever happens, it will stay wintry cold through most of next week. That doesn't mean winter is permanently here. It looks like it will warm up somewhat toward the end of the month. But the first shot of a Vermont winter over the next week looks like a messy doozy.

East Coast Should Start Watching, But Not Panicking Over Unpredictable Florence

Satellite map shows Florence in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean,
two strong disturbances that will become tropical storms in
the eastern Atlantic and the wet remains of Gordon
lurking over Arkansas. 

Hurricane Florence, now, temporarily Tropical Storm Florence, is one of those storms that make meteorologists bald from pulling out their hair so much.  

The storm, still in the central Atlantic Ocean, keeps surprising forecasters with its variable strength and uncertain direction.

Worse, the overall weather pattern over North America and the Atlantic Ocean is very strange, making forecasting all the more difficult.

This mess would just be an esoteric exercise for weather geeks except for one thing: Florence could cause real, scary trouble somewhere along the East Coast. Nobody is sure yet. So no panicking, please.

Also, definitely ignore the clickbait that's out there on social media that says The End Is Nigh.

It's not.

Instead, check out the National Hurricane Center or sane meteorologists you trust to get the best information on Florence. Or any other hurricane or storm for that matter.

Before you start panicking, remember: Florence is still way out over the central Atlantic and people have plenty of time to prepare. As the next few days go by, we'll have a clearer picture of whether Florence will score a devastating blow on the East Coast, or turn harmlessly out to sea, or do something between those two extremes.

WHAT TO DO NOW

It is the middle of hurricane season. Which means Florence is a great excuse for people everywhere along the East Coast to consider what they would do if threatened by a major hurricane.

Where would you go if told to evacuate? What stuff would you take with you if told to evacuate? How would you protect your home and/or business?  Where are your important papers and documents, and can you easily protect those? Are there copies of those documents in another safe space? What about the stuff you have saved on your computer? Is that stored in some sort of backup or the cloud?

What would you do with your pets? Do you have an emergency stash of nonperishable food and water if told to shelter in place? (Remember, stores will be closed and electricity will be out long after a bad hurricane has passed.)

If you need supplies for any future hurricane that comes along next week, this year, or next year or five years from now, this weekend is a great time to head down to Home Depot and the grocery store to get some of these items. Nobody's panicking now, so you'll be able to get in and out of these stores just fine, and what you're looking for will still be in stock.

So what about Florence?

WHAT FLORENCE IS DOING

The European compuer models seem to want to take Florence into
the Southeast or Middle Atlantic States. These potential tracks
are all various versions of the European. Note these are
NOT definitely predictions and more speculation.
Take this map with a big grain of salt. 

Florence, against all odds, rapidly strengthened into a major Category 4 storm a couple days ago, despite strong upper level winds that should have kept it in check.

Then those high level winds finally ripped into Florence over the past 24 hours and it has weakened into a tropical storm with top winds estimated at 65 mph, and I think that's generous. Florence looks pretty disorganized as of this morning.

Forecasters think the strong upper level winds peaked early this morning and will gradually relax as Florence heads generally westward. That means the storm will likely start strengthening again. On top of that, Florence is going to move over warmer water. The hotter the water, the more likely a hurricane will strengthen.

Nobody knows how much Florence will strengthen, and given its history, nobody dares make a precise guess.

The future path of Florence is even more tricky to figure out. A couple days ago, Florence was in a spot in the Atlantic Ocean that keeps hurricanes from the East Coast. Every prior hurricane that had been in that area in known history curved north and away from the East Coast.

But there's that weird weather pattern I talked about. It's pretty much the same one we had all summer, with a strong ridge of high pressure near or off the southeastern Canadian coast.

American computer models want to take Florence more
toward New England. Again, this is just one run
of a computer model with potential tracks and NOT an
official forecast. This map is basically
speculation at this point. 

That ridge will block Florence if tries to turn north. However, there will be occasional weaknesses in that otherwise strong high pressure to the north of Florence.

Those weakenesses just might allow Florence to turn north and miss the United States, or at least turn north soon enough so it stays just offshore, so the impacts wouldn't be quite so bad.

Other computer models smash Florence directly into the East Coast. If this happens, nobody is sure where.

Here's another problem: Ocean water temperatures off the East Coast, all the way past Maine and into the Canadian Maritimes, is near record warm.  Hurricanes heading north past the Mid-Atlantic states tend to start weakening because of the chilly ocean water.

If Florence heads north of say, Virginia, it has the potential to stay stronger longer because of the toasty water.

All this is still speculation, so we're just going to have to wait it out until forecasts become more clear.

REMEMBER GORDON?

You probably remember Tropical Storm Gordon a few days ago coming ashore along the northern Gulf Coast, causing some wind and flood damage.

Gordon's remains still lurk out there. It was sitting around Arkansas this morning spreading heavy rain around.  The ghost of Gordon is going to cause huge trouble today and over the weekend, with a serious potential for flooding in places like Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. These areas have gotten lots of rain in recent weeks. The soil is saturated, and heavy rains could easily cause flooding.

A huge area from Arkansas to Iowa to Ohio is under a flash flood watch today. Atmospheric conditions will only make the chances for heavy rain increase later today and tonight, so this could be bad.

The good news, at least for us Vermonters, is that a storm that contains the remains of Gordon is expected to come through Monday and early Tuesday. We have a shot of receiving the first widespread, steady rain in the Green Mountain State since at least June.

Since much of the state is in drought or abnormally dry conditions, this will help. Us Vermonters might be lucky in getting Gordon's silver lining.

OTHER TROPICAL TROUBLE

Two strong weather disturbances have moved westward off the African Coast and into the Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricance Center says both disturbances are extremely likely to turn into tropical storms, and soon.

It's way, way too early to think about where those two storms will go. We have our hands full with Florence, so let's deal with that first.

Bad Storm Likely On East Coast By Friday, But What Exactly Will It Do?

It looks like there will be some sort of big storm
near the Northeast coast on Friday, but exactly
where and how bad is still up in the air. 

As of this Monday morning, the computer weather forecasting models have come to a consensus: There will be a big, bad storm somewhere near the northeastern United States coast on Friday.

Earliest indications are the track of the storm might go from the central or southern Plains to the Ohio Valley, then it would redevelop strongly on or off the New Jersey coast.

However, that forecast track could change dramatically as we get new information later this week.

As you can imagine, there's a lot we don't yet know: What will be the exact track of the storm? Will it rain, snow or mix? How heavy will the precipitation be? Who will get the heaviest precipitation? It also seem likely there will be a lot of wind and probably some coastal flooding. Who gets nailed and who gets spared?

So yeah, there's a lot more questions than answers, but that's pretty typical on occasions when we know there's likely to be a big storm, but it'll happen four or five days from now.

Many of the ingredients for this storm were still off or near the British Columbia coast as of Monday morning. It's hard for forecasting computers to get good data for things that are over the ocean. Weak data, weak results. That explains the lack of clarity with this storm.

Still, we can begin to look at some of the things that could easily happen. Given that the storm will probably be big, most of these things will not be good. I'll pick them apart starting with:

HIGH WINDS

As I said, this will be a strong storm. Big storms have high winds, and it's beginning to appear the orientation of the storm will bring strong northeast gales to somewhere along the coast. Things could shift, but the worst of it looks like it will be somewhere between the central and southern New England coast down to the Mid-Atlantic states.

COASTAL FLOODING

Astronomical tides higher than average are scheduled for around Friday, so the timing of this storm is really bad. Storm surges and battering waves have the potential to be really destructive, as there will be a broad flow of winds off the water, which could really gather up those surges and waves.

My guess is if there's destruction from this storm, the coastal flooding will be the worst of it. At this point, I would pinpoint the New Jersey coast as most at risk, but coastal problems could arise anywhere from Maine to North Carolina.

RAIN/SNOW

Usually, when a late February or early March storm tracks just off the coast and a little south and east of New England, the interior Northeast can expect to be buried in snow. (See: the "Pi Day" Blizzard last March 14 that dumped more than three feet of snow on parts of Vermont, New York and Pennsylvania.)

This time, there's not a lot of cold air for the storm to work with. So the question of rain or wet snow is really up in the air. Even though there is not much cold air to work with strong storms like this potential one manufacture their own cold pool of air aloft.

Heavy precipitation helps bring that cooler air downward. The atmosphere over the western and northwestern side of the storm cools, and you get snow, despite the lack of large masses of cold air from Canada.

Somebody will probably get a lot of rain and/or snow from this, but who gets it is a huge question.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Nobody really knows the effects of this likely storm in Vermont, either. As of now at least, it seems like the storm wants to track well to our south, meaning southern Vermont would get the biggest effects of the storm on Friday.

People in northern Vermont shouldn't dismiss this one yet, though. If the track of the storm is more to the north of what people are thinking now, the north will get into the action as well.

If it snows in Vermont with this thing, the snow is pretty likely to be wet and heavy. It'll be windy, too, during the storm. So if wet snow does happen, we'll have to deal with power failures. That's a big if, an we'll have to wait and see.

This storm is part of a blocky weather pattern that's bringing frigid weather to Europe and an unseasonable thaw to the Arctic.  When weather patterns are this far off the rails, forecasting becomes tricker.  That makes the predictions for this storm even murkier than usual.

As I always say, stay tuned for updates.

Finally Some Gorgeous June Weather, But Interesting Things Still Coming (Maybe)

Clouds with a severe thunderstorm in Colchester, Vermont
last week. More strong storms are possible late in the
weekend and early next week.

It was so nice to get up this morning and go outside into a genuinely gorgeous June dawn here in St. Albans, Vermont.

Everything - the trees and gardens - were dripping wet and fragrant from yesterday's soaking rain. The sky above was gorgeous blue, and the day promises to be sunny and dry and perfect.

Yes, most of you were in dense fog early this morning, but you should be in the clear by the time you read this. Or almost everybody, anyway.

Enjoy today, because more "interesting" weather might be on the way. Don't worry, we're not talking about a cold June gloom again, but the weather pattern for the next few days is looking kinda active.

Thursday should be half way decent, too, though we can't rule out an isolated afternoon shower or thundershower.

On Friday, a nor'easter of all things will be lurking off the New England coast. At this point, it's looking like it just might be far enough off the coast to avoid another super cold soaker, but we're still watching it.

In any event, the nor'easter's upper level support will be over New England, so expect a fair number of showers in Vermont and the rest of New England and northern New York Friday into Saturday morning.

Then -- summer returns. However, it won't necessarily be all clear skies.

A "heat ridge" basically a northward bulge in the jet stream, will set up shop over the eastern third of the nation Sunday through at least Tuesday.

That means a surge of very warm and humid air into our area then. Forecasters are very confident of this. Expect 80s, maybe even a 90 or two Sunday afternoon, Monday and Tuesday.

But here's the tricky part. Sometimes, when a heat ridge sets up like this, strong to severe thunderstorms originate in the Great Lakes region and ride along the northern edge of these heat ridges.

We will be on the northern edge of the heat ridge. There is a possibility of strong to severe storms, especially in northern New England, Sunday through Tuesday.  The center of the ridge could be just a wee bit to our west, so the thunderstorms, if they form, might end up blasting down from the northwest on the front side of the ridge.

In these situations, the storms coming in from the northwest, rather than the southwest, can be particularly strong, at least in my experience.

This idea of strong storms is still a HUGE maybe.  I'd still take the idea of big storms Sunday and onward with a big grain of salt.

Perhaps the storms will go further to the north than we think now. Or, enough hot air will "cap" the atmosphere, discouraging the strong updrafts that are necessary for thunderstorms. Or there won't be a "trigger" a weak disturbance in the upper level air flow to get the storms going. It's all a delicate dance as to whether the storms form or not.

We won't know any more specifics until the day of.  In other words, check the forecasts each morning Sunday through Tuesday to see if we're in for any kind of rough weather.

Just count on continued iffy weather here and there going forward.

But enjoy today. Once the fog lifts, it will be the finest possible June day.

Quick Cold And Snowy March Update

This is just one of many snowfall predictions
generated by various computer models for a possible
storm Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas in pink and very light
blue in the Northeast get  10 to 20 inches of snow
in this map's scenario. However, given the storm is
several days away, this map could be exaggerating
things a lot. We'll wait and see.

Everybody's talking about a potential snowstorm Tuesday and Wednesday, so I might as well take that head on, even though there's still a LOT of uncertainty on how this will play out.

Actually, I'll get to that storm in a minute, but first, the intense cold.

The cold today through Monday is actually the easy part of the weather forecast and it's playing out about as planned.

Burlington, Vermont this morning got to zero degrees for the first time since December 16.

That's an accomplishment, since it was never below zero in January and February, when that often happens, and now it's mid-March, when we usually start escaping the deep icy clutches of winter.

Not this year.

I suppose it could be worse. There's a nasty blizzard going on up in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada today. Here in New England, just flurries.

As I mentioned yesterday, those of you heading out to do anything outside today, including the big Mardi Gras parade in Burlington, Vermont ought to bundle up.

Temperatures will barely get to 10 degrees, and the wind is going to pick up again, gusting as high as 25 to 30 mph at times. That means wind chills in the teens below zero.

Speaking of below zero, much of northern New England will go back below zero tonight and temperatures will remain far below normal throught Tuesday.

That's when things might really get interesting

HUGE NOR'EASTER?

Computer models are not completely unanimous, but most are bucking for a pretty big nor'easter somewhere along or just off the Northeast U.S. coast Tuesday and Wednesday.

Take specific forecasts on this storm with a grain of salt for now, since it's still a few days away and a lot can change. But here's the situation at this point, giving what we understand as of Saturday morning.

What We Know:

1. It's very likely - not definite - that it's going to snow, possibly a lot, somewhere in the northeastern United States, including parts of New England, around Tuesday and Wednesday.

2. This is probably going to be a strong storm, which also means a lot of wind and maybe coastal flooding from New Jersey north through New England into Canada's Maritime Provinces.

3. Whatever snow does fall will probably stick around for awhile because it'll stay cold during and after this storm, and I don't see any big warm ups in the foreseeable future.

What We Don't Know:

1. Where will the heaviest snow set up? Some computer models bring the storm very close to the coast or even inland a bit. That would bring the heaviest snow -- could be a foot or more - into interior areas, like northern and western New England, including Vermont and the Hudson Valley of New York.

Other computer models keep the storm offshore, which would bring the heaviest snow to coastal cities like maybe Philadelphia, New York, Providence, Boston and Portland. Lighter snow would fall inland in places like Vermont.

2. How long will this last?  Different computer models move the storm along at different paces. The longer the storm lingers over the Northeast, the more snow will fall.

3. How much moisture will this thing bring? Again that will determine how much snow falls. The worst case scenario is it brings TONS of moisture, lingers around for a long time near or just far offshore, which could bring up to two feet of snow to somebody. Again, no need to panic, it's just a scenario

4. Will this be a big forecasting bust? The formation of this storm depends upon how a disturbance moving in from the west and north, and another moving up from the south off the southeastern United States coast.

The nor'easter depends on these two systems "phasing," or basically colliding with one another. If the two weather disturbances miss each other,the situation won't be nearly as dramatic as some forecasts.

So sit tight, stay warm and wait for further forecasts.

It's Game On Again For Nor'easter - For Some People Anyway

From Pivotal Weather, one forecast
for the unpredictable nor'easter tonight and tomorrow.
Pink zones depict the heaviest snow.  

One of the most frustrating storms to forecast I've seen in awhile is approaching New England now, and I'm sure it will give parts of eastern New England quite a bit of late season snow.

Prospects for snow have been on again, off again and then on again for parts of central New England, as computer forecasting models continue to struggle with how close to the coast the nor'easter will get.

How close to shore is important because that tells you how far inland the snow will get.

Some indications Thursday had it covering all of New England. By Saturday morning, it looked like the storm would be far enough off the coast to just graze eastern New England.

Now the predictions have swung somewhat closer to the coast, so more of New England, Long Island and southeastern New York could get snow.

Computer forecasting models generally don't predict  nor'easters well, especially in the spring. Still, its unusual to have this many questions about a snowstorm just 12 to 18 hours before it hits.

Yeah, happy first day of astronomical spring to you, too.

Expect some of the following to be wrong, but here's the general idea as of early Sunday morning.

Areas to the east and south of a New London, Connecticut to Boston, Massachusetts line look like they're in for six to 10 inches of snow, and winter storm warnings are up there.

The snow tonight and tomorrow morning will probably be heavy and wet, so there will be problems with broken trees and power lines in the winter storm zone. That's especially a concern because the storm will bring gusty winds, as most nor'easters do.

Out over the Cape and Islands, the snow might mix with  or change to rain, so there's a winter storm watch, not a more dire warning, due to the question marks.

Northern Connecticut and central Massachusetts are under a winter storm watch tonight and tomorrow.  It's possible the heavy snow could get that far west, but nobody is sure yet. They might get four to seven inches of snow.

There's still a lot of question marks about the New York City metro area, too. Just 12 hours before the start of the storm there early Sunday estimates ranged from a dusting of snow up to eight inches.

Eastern Long Island is under a winter storm warning, and most of the rest of Long Island is under a winter weather advisory. Nothing in New York City yet in terms of weather alerts, but stay tuned.

The northwestern flank of the storm will have a sharp cutoff between several inches of snow and nothing.

That line will between snow and pretty much nothing looks as if it will be somewhere from Albany, New York though southeastern Vermont and up through western New Hampshire.

But that forecast could be a bust, too. It's totally unclear to me whether the extent of the snow will be a little west, or a little east of the rough line we've drawn here.

If you're way up to the northwest, like in Burlington, Vermont or the Adirondacks, chances are pretty damn low you'll see any snow out of this. But there's a tiny, tiny chance even those areas could get a surprise light snow. But I doubt it.

Unfortunately, the forecast for New England after the storm departs Monday is also as clear as mud.

Some sort of weather front will set up much of the week, starting Tuesday night somewhere over or just south of New England. It'll eventually come north as a warm front Thursday night, maybe.

Moisture streaming from the south and rising up and over the stalled front, plus weather disturbances rippling along that front, appear to be poised to bring precipitation to most of New England

But it's totally unclear how much and what kind, especially north across Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and over in northern New York.

Expect it to be unsettled Tuesday night through Friday, with possible periods of snow, ice, rain, or all of the above during that time frame.

I have no frickin' clue how much accumulation of snow or ice will come during that time or if it rains, how much we'll get.

This time of year, though, in general, the chances of snow and ice increase during the night, and a mix or change to rain is more likely, but no guaranteed during daylight hours.

Most people, including myself, want a degree of certainty in their weather forecasts. We often get just that. Not this week. It's going to be a tough week to be a New England meteorologist.

Thursday Morning Joaquin Update: Bahamas Screwed, East Coast Worries

Thursday morning visible satellite view of
major Hurricane Joaquin trashing the Bahamas. 

Hurricane Joaquin continued to strengthen steadily yesterday and overnight and now it's a powerhouse major hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph.

It could strengthen a little more today as it pounds the Bahamas. It's going to be a terrible disaster for them. A slow moving, major hurricane is shredding those islands today.

For the U.S. East Coast, the future of Joaquin is still totally uncertain, and there seems to be some major shifts going on in its forecast track.

I do know Joaquin is evolving into something very, very different than we thought several days ago.

Before we get into the details, three important things:

1. Anyone in the Bahamas should already have gotten their hurricane preparations done. This is going to be a terrible disaster there, with extreme wind damage, giant storm surges and torrential rain.

Yes, I know predictions of forecast tracks of
hurricanes looks a little like this, but the
science of understanding everything about hurricanes
like Joaquin is still ot fully formed.  

2. The forecast for the Mid-Atlantic concerning Joaquin is more uncertain than ever, but what is certain is the area from North Carolina to southern New Jersey is in for torrential rains between now and Monday, no matter what Joaquin does. Expect some major flooding

3. Everybody along the coast from North Carolina all the way up through New England and southeastern Canada ought to keep a close eye on Joaquin.

It's a dangerous storm and there's a chance anybody in these areas could get clobbered. Plus, again with or without Joaquin, most of these areas are in for several days of high tides and beach erosion.

OK, so yesterday all of us weather geeks were talking about the European computer forecasting model, which was telling us Joaquin would stay out to sea and avoid the United States.

Most of the other models turned Joaquin northwestward and had it smashing into the coast somewhere between North Carolina and southern New Jersey.

This morning, the computer forecasting models, fed with oodles of new data provided by a bunch of weather balloon launches, satellite analysis and other cool nerdy stuff, have decided the European model might have been on to something.

That doesn't necessarily mean the Euro was completely right, which presents a serious conundrum for the East Coast. Maybe Joaquin won't go nearly as far east as the Euro was suggesting. For what it's worth, since Monday, the European has been a little better at forecast Joaquin's track than most other models, but that doesn't always mean it will stay correct.

Flooding in Portland, Maine Wednesday. I pretty
much guarantee similar scenes from the Mid-Atlantic
states over the weekend, with or without Joaquin

Some of the models are still insisting Joaquin will smash into North Carolina or Virginia.

Others have a dangerous hurricane heading into heavily populated Long Island and southern New England. Still others have it clipping Cape Cod, while others have it plowing into southeastern Canada.

If it heads north, the winds will weaken with Joaquin as it hits cooler ocean water and strong upper level winds, but it would still be a formidable threat.

The bottom line: Keep watching this thing. If you have coastal property anywhere between North Carolina and southeastern Canada,  batten down the hatches and be ready for coastal flooding and severe beach erosion starting now and lasting through the weekend.

If you're in the Middle Atlantic States, be ready for nasty flooding well in advance of Joaquin, starting today.  Remember, this flooding is going to happen even if Joaquin stays 1,000 miles away.

For thr rest of the East Coast, it is frustrating that still nobody knows where Joaquin will go. That's the nature of hurricane forecasting. Predicting these things has gotten a LOT better in recent years, but we still have much more to learn to forecast these things more accurately and much more in advance.

Wednesday Evening Update: Joaquin And The Euro

Strengthening Hurricane Joaquin Wednesday afternoon
with sustained winds of 85 mph. 

The talented guys and gals at the National Hurricane Center must be pulling their hair out, if they have any left.

They're struggling with battling forecast models on what the future of Hurricane Joaquin is going to be.  

Plus, the stakes are high: Joaquin could cause a HUGE disaster somewhere on the U.S. East Coast if it makes landfall there, which it well might.

PLUS, at this point, with such an uncertain forecast, when and how does the National Hurricane Center basically press the button and issue warnings for the United States, and how do you do it without causing either panic or complacency?

PLUS PLUS, There's already dangerous weather occuring and brewing on the East Coast, whether or not Joaquin arrives or not. One batch of torrential rain is exiting the northeastern United States, causing patches of nasty flooding in spots from the Gulf Coast of Alabama to Downeast Maine.

More bouts of flooding rains are due along the East Coast, again, with or without Joaquin, over the coming days. If people have to prepare for a hurricane how best to do it amid very inclement weather, or worse, weather that is already causing a disaster?

PLUS PLUS PLUS: Most forecasting models want to forecast Hurricane Joaquin to make landfall somewhere between North Carolina and New Jersey.

The outlyer in this is the European model, Euro for short. It's usually quite reliable. You might remember the Euro as the one that told us that Hurricane Sandy would take a sharp left turn and hit New Jersey. The Euro told us this days before it would happen, and during a time when most of the other forecasting models said Sandy would cruise by off the coast and we shouldn't think it was a big deal.

Of course, Sandy was a big, BIG deal.

Now, The Euro is arguing with many of the forecasting models again. The Euro keeps Joaquin well off the coast, and has it heading northeastward out to sea instead of hitting the United States.

Yes, the Euro is reliable. But it doesn't mean it's right this time. Nobody knows whether its right or not.

The National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center is trying to get as much data as possible on weather patterns. In fact they're going through extreme efforts. The more data the forecasting computer models have, the better the chances they'll come up with an accurate forecast.

Hurricane hunter planes have been buzzing Joaquin. Local National Weather Service offices in the eastern half of the United States have been frantically launching weather balloons, so we can get data upwind from the hurricane, to see how the trough of low pressure and weather fronts and such will affect Joaquin's motion.

Most of the computer models think the big trough of low pressure, which is a big dip in the jet stream over the East Coast, will grab Joachin and suck him north and west toward the East Coast.

The Euro model is noticing Joaquin is currently headed toward the southwest, with his eye on the Bahamas. Apparently, the Euro thinks Joaquin will dip far enough south that it will be out of reach from the pesky trough further north over the eastern United States.

Instead a frontal system and the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida would pull Joaquin toward the northeast and way from the United States, the Euro is thinking.

Don't ask me or anybody else to read the minds of these murky computer models. All we can do is let forecasters keep crunching the data, and maybe by tomorrow we'll have a better guess on where Joaquin is going. Maybe.

The bottom line: If Joaquin misses, parts of the eastern United States are in for some major flooding regardless of missing out on a hurricane.

If Joaquin hits, we're in for a major natural disaster.

If you're anywhere in the eastern United States, especially from southern New England to the Carolinas, you really, really want to keep an eye on this.

New England Storm Forecast Update: Damn Tricky Business Here

The National Weather Service in South Burlington,
Vermont has taken an initial stab at forecasting
how much snow is coming, but this map is
BIG Time subject to change. (Click on the image to
make it bigger and easier to read.)  

Up here in Vermont, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has this evening opted to hold off on upgrading a winter storm watch for Sunday night and Monday into a warning.

They have good reason to be hesitant. This storm has a super high forecast bust potential. Vermonters hoping for a good dump of snow better not start celebrating yet.

There's still a very good chance of four to 10 inches of snow in Vermont, but there are a lot of complicating factors.

The National Weather Service forecast discussion is illuminating as to why the entire staff in South Burlington will be bald by Monday because they're pulling their hair out over this one.

Here are the problems:

1. Temperatures will be margional for snow, especially during the first part of the storm. It looks like many areas will start off as rain. But will the precipitation change over to snow as soon as the heavier precipitation comes in?

If not, who gets rain, and which areas stay cold enough for snow?  The higher elevations, of course, would be more apt to get snow, but what about the Champlain Valley? The valleys around Rutland?
How far do you have to go east of the Green Mountains before you encounter mostly rain?

A degree or two off in the forecast for any layer of the atmosphere, not just the surface, and current forecasts would be wrong.

2. Where will the heaviest precipitation be? There's a sharp cutoff expected between heavy snow or rain to the east, and very light precipitation to the west. Right now, it looks like the heaviest precipitation will be from the Champlain Valley east.

Even if forecasters are off by as little as 20 miles as to how far west the heavy precipitation will get, some areas will miss out on the heavy snow, or, in the case of eastern New York, unexpectedly get dumped on.

By the way, a 20 mile error in this regard is practically inevitable at this point.

3. These kinds of storms often form what is called a deformation zone, which is an area of heavier precipitation on the western edge of a storm that stays put for a few hours. Will a deformation zone set up? If so where?

4. Will mountains block the moisture feed in some areas? That's especially a risk west of the Green Mountains and even more so in Vermonts Northeast Kingdom, where New Hampshire's White Mountains could block the moisture.

You can see why Vermont is still under an uncertain winter storm watch. Who the hell knows what this storm is going to do?

The going forecast now, definitely subject to change, calls for about a foot of snow in the high-ish elevations in far north central Vermont, especially around Jay Peak.

Northwestern Vermont, especially areas at least five miles east of Lake Champlain, are pegged to get 6 to 10 inches of snow.

The Champlain Valley south of Franklin County, and central Vermont are up for four to eight inches.

Southwestern Vermont would get 1 to 4 inches of snow, and only an inch or two will come down in the Connecticut River Valley south of St. Johnsbury

As I noted, this snow forecast is BIG TIME subject to change.

By the way, things are just as uncertain in northern New Hampshire. They might get a big snowstorm, they migh not.

Down in Massachusetts, the NFL Patriots vs. Indiana Colts game, scheduled to start at 6:40 p.m. Sunday, promises to be a really unpleasant slog in the weather department.

Rain could come down pretty hard, and temperatures will only be in the low 40s. There's even a chance of thunder. However, there's still a chance the heaviest weather could wait until after the Patriots game. We'll wait and see on that one.

After the storm, the weather looks very easy to forecast, at least by comparison. It'll be a little colder than normal through most of next week, with just chances of light snow here an there across northern New England

El Nino Forecast: Maybe Not Such A Big Deal After All

El Nino is characterized by unusually warm water
in the Eastern Pacific near the west coast of South America.  

Us weather geeks earlier this year were getting our pants in a knot because climate scientists were predicting - with quite a bit of confidence -a big El Nino later this year.

El Ninos are periodic spells of unusually warm water in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

You might say "Who cares?" to that until you realize an El Nino, especially a strong one, can really mess with weather worldwide.

One thing El Ninos so is give a boost to worldwide temperatures, at least on average. Combine a big El Nino with global warming and you'd get the hottest year on record.

Some forecasters had been saying 2015 could be by far the globe's toastiest year, if the strong El Nino developed.

Now, however, this Big Bad El Nino might turn out to be a wimp, after all. Or it might even turn out to be nonexistent.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has lowered the chances of an El Nino late this fall or winter to about 65 percent. They had been touting an 80 percent liklihood earlier this year.

That's still a good chance that El Nino will come around after all. There are indications that the eastern Pacific will make another attempt to warm up later this year.

If the El Nino is strong, chances are California would be socked with some torrential winter storms, which would be great news given the epic drought there.

If the El Nino is weak, or doesn't happen, then the California drought, already the worst since about 1160 according to some scientist, would drag on.

All this uncertainty goes to show you that climate scientists definitely have the broad picture nailed when it comes to global warming and global weather, ocean and wind patterns.

But the details are tricky, so we'll just have to wait and see if an El Nino arrives, and brings us a bout of global weirding in the weather department.


Now, the

Almost A Sure Bet That Tropical Storm WILL Form

As of Saturday morning, most computer forecasting
models likely take what is to become Tropical
Storm Cristobal into Florida the southeastern U.S., or
recurve it out to see to totally miss the U.S.. Stay tuned.  

That area of storminess in the Caribbean that the National Hurricane Center has been watching for the past few days looks like it will turn into a tropical storm, or maybe eventually a hurricane.

As expected, the storminess is getting better organized, but still hadn't formed a real circulation, the kind you get in a true tropical storm. That will likely happen today or tomorrow, says the Hurricane Center.

So where will it hit. First of all, remember the outcry last week over that obnoxious weather enthusiast, named K-Mart (yeah, I know) who started a panic because he was posting images that suggested a major hurricane would wash New Orleans away?

Everybody piled on that guy for being a dufus and trying to cause a false panic, and it's looking like everybody, including The Weather Channel, Weather Underground, the National Hurricane Center and most legitimate forecasters were right to do so.

It appears unlikely this wannabe storm, which would be named Cristobal, will go into the Gulf of Mexico, though a few outlying computer forecasting models still take it there.

Instead, there's an excellent chance it will go through at least part of the Bahamas. I bet they'll issue tropical storm warnings or watches for at least parts of the Bahamas later today or tomorrow.

Then what? Again, nobody's sure. As I noted the other day, forecasts for hurricanes and tropical storms  for several days in advance are pretty unreliable.

However, the best bets are it will either touch the southeastern United States coast, or recurve off to the northeast, going out to sea and not bothering anybody after harassing the Bahamas.

If I were a betting man, I'd say it'll go out to sea and pretty much miss the United States,  but definitely DON'T take my word on that bet. There's more than enough uncertainty in the forecasts to still keep an eye on this sucker.

Nobody is really sure how strong the tropical storm or hurricane will be by the time it gets near the coast, or doesn't get near the coast.

A few notable and destructive past hurricanes, like Betsy in 1965, developed rapidly once they reached the Bahamas like this one will, but many other storms in that region didn't amount to much. Again, just stay tuned and we'll know more in a couple days.

So, if you live in an area between Miami and Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, I'd definitely pay attention to forecasts for the wannabe Cristobal, and act accordingly if forecasts indicate it will head toward you.

But I wouldn't head for the hills quite yet.

Northern New England Snowstorm Friday? Well, Maybe....

OK, everybody seems to be abuzz about a rumored big snowstorm on Friday, so I'll put my two cents in, for what it's worth. (Probably not much more than two cents)

The sun came out Monday morning after
an inch or two of fluffy snow fell overnight
in St. Albans, Vermont. It's still unclear
if more snow will come down at the end of the week.  

Here's what I know: There will be some sort of storminess on or off the East Coast of the United States Friday.

That is a vague and weak statement, and I mean it to be.

As of Monday, nobody knows exactly if and where a snowstorm will develop at the end of the week. Don't let anybody tell you otherwise.

To get a good nor'easter going along the coast, a whole bunch of factors have to come together.

The biggest one is this: There's usually two branches of the jet stream this time of year. A jet stream is high level river of air that generally steers weather systems.

The southern branch of the jet stream has to coordinate with the northern branch of the jet stream to get a good storm going. Kind of like two school girls calling each other ahead of time to see what each other is wearing today.

So the two jet stream branches have to "phase" to get a good storm. That means they have to dip southward at the same longitude as each other. Plus, the dip has to be in just the right place, usually just inland from the East Coast, to give northern and western New England a good snowstorm.

Have the two branches of the jet stream been "talking" to each other yet?  We don't know. The factors that will determine whether the jet streams phase were still out in the Pacific Ocean Monday morning, or just coming ashore.

We don't have good data out in the Pacific to feed in the computer forecasting models, so those models are all disagreeing with each other on the size and strength of any East Coast storm at the end of the week.  Garbage in, garbage out.

Once the potential energy for the storms comes inland, we'll be able to get a much better idea of whether the jet streams are going to phase. (Kind of like if the NSA tapped into the phone lines of our school girls who are coordinating outfits)

I think by Wednesday, we'll have a much better idea of it'll just snow a little across northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire at the end of the week, or whether we'll be talking about another powder day.

Meanwhile, we do know, as the weather systems start getting themselves together, there's a high potential over the next couple of days of another super duper messy snow and ice storm across the southeastern United States. (Oh joy!)

Winter weather advisories, watches and warnings now extend from Texas to the Carolinas, including the Atlanta metro area. If you like traffic jams, head to Atlanta now in case there's a redux of the January disaster when they got two or three inches of snow. 

And, as expected, northern New York and northern New England did manage to pick up a fluffy one to three inches of snow last night to make everything fresh and pretty looking.

Stay tuned and I'll try and get a better picture as the week goes on whether we get another decent snowfall or not.