Hanna, Now A Hurricane, Steals The Show. Also: Vermont Heat AGAIN!

Radar of Hurricane Hanna east of Corpus Christi, Texas this
morning. Powerful winds and storms now completelu
encircle Hanna's eye, which means further
strenthening is likely until the storm
makes landfall this afternoon. 

A few days ago, it looked like we would spend the rest of the week talking about a would-be hurricane named Gonzalo, while ignoring a nothingburger in the Gulf of Mexico.

As more proof that the tropics can be unpredictable, the "nothingburger" is now Hurricane Hanna, and it's about to strike southern Texas. And cause lots of problems.

Satellite views of Hanna overnight showed it organizing quite well, forming an eye with curved bands of intense thunderstorms surrounding that center.

The National Hurricane Center confirmed that as of around 7 a.m. this morning, top sustained winds in Hanna had reached 75 mph, enough to be the first Atlantic hurricane of the season.

It looks like Hanna will keep strengthening until it hits the southern Texas coast this afternoon.  The only thing keeping Hanna from become an even bigger monster is it doesn't have much time to get more powerful before it makes landfall.

However, powerful thunderstorms managed to completely surround the eye of Hanna as its central air pressure lowered. That's certainly a great recipe for further strengthening. Some observers  this morning were wondering if top winds could reach 90-100 mph.

Don't think for a minute so called "weaker" Category 1 hurricanes don't cause a lot of problems. This one will create a lot of difficulties, as most Cat 1's do.  It will cause wind damage. Even worse, storm surges of three to five feet above normal sea levels are expected around and south of Corpus Christi.  It's a low coast line, so that will cause lots of flooding.

Worse still, Hanna will dump between six and 12 inches of rain on far southern Texas, which will cause a lot of flash flooding.

There's more bad news with this:  A hurricane that is growing stronger as it nears the coast is especially bad because it catches people off-guard.  Some people in southern Texas might have been saying yesterday, "Oh, a tropical storm. I guess we won't have a beach day on Saturday."

Now, they have little time to get out of the way of wind, storm surgest and inland flooding.  I was, however, heartened to see news video of LOTS of cars driving away from the southern Texas coastline Friday evening.

Additionally, as we've all heard on the news, Texas is enduring a terrible spike in illnesses, deaths and hospitalizations due to the Covid-19 pandemic.  So on top of the extreme health crisis, southern Texas has to deal with a hurricane.

How do you socially distance in evacutation centers?  What if people are hurt or need to be rescued during Hurricane Hanna when medical and emergency teams are already stretched so thin?

They told us way back in the spring this would be a difficult hurricane season.  This is the opening salvo, and it's certainly not a good one.

Going back to the other tropical storm, Gonzalo, it's falling apart.  It will bring tropical storm conditions to some of the Windward Islands, and it's still expected to dissipate in the Caribbean Sea.  You never know what will happen to Gonzalo's remnants in a few days, so its currently disorganized mass of clouds could come back from the dead in a week or so.

VERMONT HEAT OVERPERFORMS AGAIN

Speaking of things that keep rising from the dead, another hot spell is coming to Vermont, especially Sunday and Monday.

There had been hope earlier in the week, that temperatures would stay pretty close to normal, continuing a trend that started Tuesday and continued through Friday. All four of those days were only slightly warmer than average, instead of torrid.

It's back to hot again for a few days. Today won't be too bad, because humidity levels are pretty comfortable. Still, afternoon highs will get into the 80s pretty much statewide.  The broader, wider valleys will probably get into the upper 80s

The humidity will increase by Sunday, along with the temperatures. Burlington could easily see its 16th 90 degree reading of the year tomorrow, and we might make it to #17 on Monday.

It doesn't look like there will be any cooling thunderstorms Sunday. However, on a very muggy Sunday night, and early Monday, some weather disturbances riding over the northern edge of the Northeast U.S. heat ridge could bring showers and thunderstorms to Vermont. If they happen, it's most likely north of Route 2.

Scattered hit and miss  showers and storms could punctuate the heat and humidity Monday.  A cold front slowly sagging south through northern New England will gradually bring relief to us later Tuesday and especially Wednesday, when temperatures will fall - and I use that term loosely - to readings that are similar to what we've had the past three or four days.

That Flash Flood Threat Materialized For Some Of Us - Dangerously

While New Hampshire and eastern Vermont were flooding, incredible
hail piled up this morning near Wells, Maine. Photo by Shawna Marie
Druin via Twitter 

While those of us in northwestern Vermont had a quiet weather night and early morning, it was anything but in eastern Vermont and New Hampshire.

That flash flood threat I spoke of yesterday materialized in some of those spots. Thunderstorms, a few of them severe, and torrential showers and thunderstorms developed over night and are continuing in those regions this morning.

All this is a developing situation, but here's what we have as of mid-morning.

Flash flood warnings are up for most of central and northern New Hampshire and bits and pieces of eastern and northeastern Vermont.  

The trouble in New Hampshire is particularly severe, with reports of life threatening flooding in Woodsville, New Hampshire, just across the Connecticut River from Wells River, Vermont.

Water was said to be pouring into the local hospital in Woodsville. Rainfall rates further north in Sugar Hill, New Hampshire were as high as five inches per hour for brief periods.  Flash flood warnings were up this morning in Vermont near Woodsville, in towns like Wells River and Bradford.

As of 8:30 a.m. today, another big are of of  concern in Vermont is a stretch along Route 2 and surrounding hill towns between Marshfield and Danville. 

That flash flood warning near Route 2 was later extended further east and north to include St. Johnsbury and Lyndonville.  There is a river bank mobile home park along the Passumpsic River that is prone to flooding. I worry about that neighborhood this morning.

The rain has really come down hard there and was still pouring as o 9 a.m. Some spots were already up to 3 inches of rain in short order, with more falling. That gush of water is no doubt sweeping down steep hills and mountains, causing a potentially dangerous flash flood situation.

Ominously, the heavy rain appeared to be sitting nearly stationary on radar images over northeastern and eastern Vermont and western New Hampshire through mid-morning. This could get really, really bad.

The storms also look pretty intense, with plenty of lightning strikes in northern Vermont east of the Greens and northern New Hampshire. There's still the risk of severe storms, too, especially further east in New Hampshire and Maine. Hail completely covered the ground near Wells, Maine this morning. The dangerous weather could extend into northern Massachusetts as well.

The flood threat will continue today in those regions through the day, while those of us who were begging for a little piece of the action to the west in the Champlain Valley will see little or nothing.

The main culprit in the troublesome weather east of the Green Mountains is sometning I just talked about here in this blog thingy a couple weeks ago: A mesoscale convective system, or MCS. 

They're common in the Midwest and Plains.  They are much less frequent in New England, but certainly do happen, often with damaging results.

It's too early to really assesswhat kind of damage, ias happened in the area hit by this New England MCS.  I do know there were some severe thunderstorm warnings early this morning in addition to the flood threat.

Vermont is prone to flooding. Different parts of the state have been declared federal disaster zones 13 times in the past decade due to flooding.  I have no idea if today's possible flooding will rise to that level.

People outside the storm zone, like in the Champlain Valley, could see a great lightning show off to the east before dawn today.

In the New Hampshire flash flood warning zone, rainfall rates were/are at times one to three inches per hour, certainly enough to produce a flash flood.

The threat from this MCS, and upper level low pressure system will continue through much of the day as this mess slowly heads east.  Additonal showers and storms will form on the western edges of this in Vermont, mostlly east of the Green Mountains today, which could cause more high water problems.

The danger is even higher in New Hampshire and western Maine, since this mass of storms will keep firing up all day as the upper level low slowly moves overhead.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center says the heavy rain and storms will persist and actually expand in  areal coverage going into this afternoon. Already, as of 10 a.m., a few showers had expanded into the central Champlain Valley.

In western Vermont, there likely won't be enough activity to cause flood trouble, but this forecast shows that anything east of the Green Mountains in particular might well be in continued trouble for the rest of the days.

Looking forward, we get a sort of break from the humidity tonight and Wednesday before it returns big time by the weekend.  There will be more threats of showers and storms with locally heavy rain occasionally between now and early next week.

Which probably means some areas of the region that are too dry will stay that way, but areas that are too wet face the risk of more water trouble.

Tornado And Severe Weather Threat Still Big Risk In South

The question of the weekend in the Deep South is where there
be more of these types of highly visible but also highly
destructive tornadoes, or.....

Meteorologists around the nation, but especially in the Deep South are still watching what could be a terrible severe weather outbreak unfold this weekend.

Not to be glib in a situation like this, but it's an April classic, at least as the overall weather set up is.

A strong - and strengthening storm will move from the Plains to the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday.  There's going to be another snowstorm on its northwest flank from the central Plains up into Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.

Strong, destructive winds and shoreline flooding are forecast for most of the Great Lakes.

But the real, most worrisome situation is the threat for tornadoes, some maybe long lasting and strong, especially Sunday. As readers of this blog thingy know, forecasters have been watching this situation for days now, and there are no signs so far that anybody can rest easy.

The first hint of trouble came Friday with a swarm of supercell thunderstorms in western Texas that produced some gigantic hail stones, as loud and enthusiastic storm chaser Reed Timmer discovered.

The trouble will begin to really blossom today. as most of Texas and a large chunk of Oklahoma fall under a severe storm threat. Tornadoes and destructive straight line winds are real threats today, but large hail is once again the predominant hazard today and tonight in this area.

The Sunday threat covers a huge area from eastern Texas to the Carolinas and from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio River.  The main bullseye for the worst of it continues to look like it will be Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi, at least as things stand now.

The question is not whether severe weather develops, it's what form it will take. The worst way it could develop if a bunch of rotating supercells form, with each one being on its own, not part of any squall lines.

If that happens, you get these wide, long lasting and intense tornadoes that cause the most extreme damage, and are the most life-threatening since they are so strong.

....or something like this not quite as strong, but still dangerous
and also hard to see coming rain-wrapped spinup tornadoes 

Things could instead develop into messy lines and cluster of thunderstorms. That's still really bad, because there would be embedded tornadoes and very serious straight line winds.

But most of the time, the tornadoes in this scenario, while still extremely dangerous, are not the high end super bad ones you get with those more isolated supercells I talked about above.

The tornadoes in these "messy" clusters have their own hazard, however. These are usually hidden within curtains of rain. Human nature sometimes prompts people to look for the tornado that's threatening them before taking shelter. Usually, you can't see this type of tornado coming.

Though there are guesses, I don't think anyone really knows how this will develop until it gets going. There will probably be those messy lines and clusters of storms, and discreet, big tornado ones,  but nobody is sure which style will predominate.

Some of the same areas most at risk for tornadoes and damaging winds also have a substantial flood risk.  At last check, most of Tenneessee and the northern halves of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia in particular are under the gun for heavy downpours and flash floods on Sunday.

It's already been a tremendously wet year in these areas and the expected three to six inches of rain Sunday and Sunday night will only trigger more flooding.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Here in Vermont, there will certainly be no tornadoes, but the storm will give us a few problems, albeit minor compared to what will go on in the South.

The storm will bring a quick slug of fairly heavy rain through on Monday. The National Weather Service is foreasting perhaps a half inch to an inch of rain.

That doesn't make me too frightened about any flooding, but we'll have to watch the Northeast Kingdom.  The mid elevations and mountains got quite a bit of snow from that last storm Thursday night and Friday. Averill, way up in the northeast corner of the state, got a foot of snow out of that one.

The lingering snow, and snow from previous storms on the mountains in the Northeast Kingdom, will do a lot of melting amid the rains coming up Monday, so there is the risk of some high water. They'll need to watch the flood prone Passumpsic River for this one.

The big story in and near Vermont with this one will be the wind. There will be gusts over 40 mph ahead of the cold front Monday morning and early afternoon.  Once the cold front passes, the winds will really crank, especially in northern New York, the northern Champlain Valley, and I think eastern slopes of the Green Mountains.

Winds could easily be strong enough to damage trees and power lines Monday, so we should keep that in mind.

Interesting Big Storms Around, But Vermont Mostly Spared

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Harold smashed into parts of Vanuatu
in the South Pacific Sunday and Monday 

The past day or so, and the forecast, calls for a few odd - and strong - storm systems both in the United States and elsewhere, especially in the South Pacific.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD

The nation of Vanuatu in the South Pacific comprises about 80 islands stretched out over 800 miles. Part of that island chain was hit by an immense hurricane named Tropical Cyclone Harold.

Hurricanes are called tropical cyclones in that part of the world and this was an extreme one.

Tropical storm Harold hit Vanuatu's largest island with winds estimated at 145 mph.  According to the Category 6 blog, the island has about 40,000 residents, mostly scattered in small villages across the island.

Harold had earlier killed 27 people in the Solomon Islands, the Weather Channel reports.

The coronavirus pandemic is going to complicate relief efforts in Vanuatu.  The island nation had not yet reported any cases of Covid-19, thanks in large part to restrictions at international borders and on tourism.

However, relief workers won't be allowed to come to Vanuatu to assist, unless they do a 14-day quarantine first, notes the Weather Channel. The economic and social toll of the pandemic will probably also interfere with relief efforts.

Harold is still out there, and is threatening the island nations of Fiji and Tongo.

BLIZZARDY MAINE?

A winter storm watch is up for western and central, and parts of northern Maine Thursday into Friday for what could be a doozy of a storm.

A storm system and cold front will move through New England Thursday, including here in Vermont.  The good dynamics with this storm will create plenty of showers, gusty winds, maybe a rumble of thunder and then some snow showers here in the Green Mountain State Thursday and Friday.

Once the storm gets to the Maine coast, Pow! It looks like it will blow up rapidly into a late blooming nor'easter.  Even the normally staid meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine are wowed with the storm's potential.

"This is an impressive winter storm for any winter month, let along mid-April," they wrote in this morning's forecast discussion.

The storm will be pretty compact, at least at first, so the big storminess will focus mostly on Maine, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and the far southeastern corner of Quebec.

Maine and adjacent Quebec will be on the colder northwest side of the storm. Current forecasts call for a good seven to 10 inches of heavy, wet snow, along with strong winds. If that comes to pass, there will certainly be some nasty power outages in that neck of the woods.  Luckily the storm won't hang around for a long time, so conditions in Maine will start to improve later Friday.

Even so such a nasty winter storm is a bit of a shock to the system in April, even by Maine standards.

SOGGY S. CALIFORNIA

The winter rainy season in southern California is usually ending by now, but don't tell that to residents down there now. Flood watches are up for southern and southeasternn California, mostly south and east of Los Angeles.

A slow moving storm will dump heavy showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the usually dry deserts inland from the southern California coast. Those storms could easily cause some flash flooding.

Los Angeles got into the act yesterday with 1.22 inches of rain, the most for that date on record. It's a cold storm, so winter storm warnings are up for the mountains east of the city.

Forecasters are carefully watching what this storm does once it ejects out into the southern Plains of the United States toward Saturday.  If conditions come together right, the storm could produce a nasty tornado outbreak in the Southeast.

However, forecasting models are all over the place with this system, so nobody yet knows if the storm will turn into a monster or a nothing burger once it gets out into the south and middle of the nation.

Wicked Ugly Weather Friday In Vermont. Stay Home!

Storm total map for snow accumulation, updated early Friday
morning. Snow could reach a depth of more than a foot
across the northwest.  Strong winds will blow
the snow around, too. This comes after freezing rain
and sleet early this morning. 

On this February Friday in Vermont we're faced with a storm in which forecasts issued early this morning for your area will probably be at least a little wrong.

However, any little inaccuracies don't really matter with this storm.

The bottom line is, it's a very ugly out there an it will get even uglier as the day wears on.  This is totally a day that you will either want to work from home or just call in sick, if possible.

You won't want to be out in the roads anywhere in or near Vermont today.

In most of the state and surrounding areas, you will experience sleet, freezing rain, then heavy snow, blowing snow, whiteouts, strong winds and plunging temperatures.

The combination, at least in my opinion, makes this just about the worst type of storm to be caught out in.

But, you're perfectly safe if you just stay home.  I just went through the list of today's school closings at the Vermont Public Radio web site and it's an awfully long list.  I'm pretty sure your town's school is closed today.

The overall forecast scenario for this storm is the same as last night with one big question: What will be falling from the sky and when?  That will have a big influence on how much ice accumulates on roads, trees and power lines. It will also determine whether you get only a few inches of snow at your house or a foot and a half. We do know precipitation, whatever it is, will come down really hard at times.

There are big timing questions as to when mixed precipitation will go over to snow in any one spot in Vermont today.  If it changes over even an hour later than forecast, you get more ice, but much less snow accumulation.  If the change comes an hour or two earlier than predicted, you get a few inches of extra snow.

It's really impossible to time the changeover super accurately with this type of storm.

Like I said, though, it doesn't really matter what falls from the sky at any given minute today.  No matter what, it's beyond lousy.

THE DETAILS:

Ice accumulations in central Vermont might be enough to break
some trees and power lines. (Red areas especially).

Overnight, the mixed precipitation, though light, made it northward all the past the Canadian border.

At my house in St. Albans, we had a glaze of freezing drizzle overnight. As of 5:30 a.m., that changed to heavier showers of mixed sleet and freezing rain.

Snow was increasing in northern New York as of 6 a.m. today. Radar indicated the rate of snowfall was rapidly increasing over northwestern New York.

As this heavy band of precipitation becomes established, it will intensify and move east into Vermont.  It will bring sharply colder air with it, changing mixed precipitation to snow over northwestern Vermont first. Then the snow will head south and east across the state.

For this morning's commute, things will go from iffy to much worse as the morning wears on. The best guess from the National Weather Service in South Burlington is that snow will reach the Burlington area by around 9 or 10 a.m. today, Montpelier around noon, and early to mid afternoon in southern Vermont.

As of 6:50 a.m., at least, this scenario seems pretty accurate, as snow was beginning to mix in with the sleet and freezing rain up here in St. Albans, the northwestern corner of Vermont.

As this changeover happens, the rate of precipitation will increase as this storm, already strong, really cranks up. Whatever falls from the sky will come down pretty hard. This type of storm  often sets up narrow, intense bands of precipitation  on its northwest flank, which we will be in.  So, one town might end up with say, 15 inches of snow, while a community just 20 miles to the west or east gets maybe six inches.

Before the changeover, ice could accumulate on trees in power lines in south central Vermont enough to create some power failures, so be ready for that. In the north, there won't be enough ice to cause many problems in tha regard, but high winds later today could be an issue.

The intense storm center will move over western Massachusetts and into coastal Maine this afternoon. If  you have a barometer, check it out this afternoon. It will be awfully low. Strong storms usually create strong winds, so you'll feel that later today.

By the time the wind begins to howl by this afternoon, it will have snowed quite a bit in northern Vermont, and many areas in northern Vermont will see snowfall rates of one or two inches per hour. That's very heavy snow. Those strong winds, gusting as high as 40 mph risk causing whiteout conditions this afternoon and evening. Yet another reason to not go out.

By the way, this winter storm is not just a Vermont issue, of course. Southern Quebec, northern New York, much of New Hampshire and most of Maine also face heavy snow, strong winds and ice.

Back here in Vermont, It'll be rough this evening, but snow will taper off and end overnight, as it gets very cold.  If you're digging out Saturday morning, dress for it.  The day will start with temperatures of near zero degrees.

Saturday Evening Vermont Storm Update: No Big Changes To Dangerous Forecast

Add caption

Don't let the record warm temperatures and bits of sunshine you experienced today in Vermont fool you, we are still in for a humdinger of a storm

Dangerous ice is still coming to the north of Vermont, especially the northern Champlain Valley. And far northern New York  is really going to get nailed with awful ice.

Much of the rest of Vermont is still in for some flooding.

By late afternoon, pretty heavy rain had worked itself into northern Vermont and it was gradually working its way to the south and east. That is the beginning of the end of the warmth, and the start of the freezing rain episode in the north.

The freezing rain won't start right away, but it will come tonight.

Let's set us up with what happened this afternoon. There were quite a few record highs this afternoon in New England, including around Vermont. Here are some of the records:

Burlington, Vermont: 59, beating 56 set in 1980
Montpelier, Vermont: 59, beating 52 set in 2014
Plattsburgh, New York: 53, beating 51 in 2017
Boston: 70 degrees; second warmest January day on record
Hartford, Connecticut: 67 degrees, third warmest day on record.

WHAT'S NEXT

I took this photo of the huge "Triplet Trees" in my St. Albans
back yard amid record warmth this morning. I took this possibly
final photo of the trees in case they were end up damaged or
destroyed in tonight's ice storm. I have no way
of knowing how they wil come out Hoping for the best! 

I would say there were more record highs in the North Country today than I expected. That does NOT mean it will be a little warmer than expected overnight.  So the ice is still coming.

If anything, it could possibly mean precipitation will be a tad heavier than expected, as the contrasting air masses involved with this storm are even a little more extreme than some had forecasted.

The cold air is starting to bleed in. Massena, New York, which would be the first place south of the  border with Canada to see the cold front actually saw it come through a little after 2 p.m. this afternoon, and temperatures there have been slowly falling ever since.

The cold front just barely came through around my place in St. Albans, Vermont at 5 p.m. this evening, accompanied by heavy rain. I'm writing this right at 5 p.m., and the gusty south winds we've had all day in St. Albans just turned to the northwest a couple minutes ago. The downward slide in temperature has begun.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington expects the rain to change to freezing rain in New York's St. Lawrence Valley and the northern tip of that state around 8 or 9 p.m. tonight. The northern Champlain Valley should go to freezing rain at around 10 or 11 p.m. tonight, and points south and east of there should go to freezing rain around midnight to 1 a.m. Sunday.

Places south and east of a line from a little north of Rutland to a little north of St. Johnsbury should get little if any freezing rain, if current forecasts come out right.

The low-level cold air coming down from Ontario and Quebec is about as cold as forecasts had been all along, so the freezing rain and ice damage in the north is most certainly on for later tonight and Sunday.

Forecasts for ice accumulation haven't changed much since this morning. Far northern New York still looks to get a disastrous one inch or so of ice accumulation, which would cause massive tree and power line damage.

The northern Champlain Valley is still in line to get a half inch to three quarters of an inch of ice, which will certainly also cause a lot of damage.  By the way, southern Quebec from Montreal south, and sections of Ontario are in line for a very destructive ice storm tonight, too.

There's a couple things going for us that will make a bad situation not as bad as it could be. One, instead of a long, drawn out few days of freezing rain, we'll get downpours overnight.  So much rain will come down that some of the water won't have time to freeze until it reaches the ground, or soaks in. That would cut down a little on how much ice accumulates.

There's also a chance the low level cold air could get a little thicker in altitude than forecast. If that happens, we'd get some sleet, which doesn't really accumulate on trees and power lines. That would be most likely in the far north. Pray for more sleet than expected, believe it or not. That would make things less bad than forecast. Don't count on it, though.

FLOODING

Flooding is obviously still a concern with this storm.  It's been raining pretty hard in northwestern Vermont since mid-afternoon and small streams have already become torrents, aided by snow melt in the record warm air earlier today.

Even in the ice zone, expect some flooding this evening. I notice the small streams around my area in Franklin County, Vermont are already flowing at pretty high and fast rates as of 5 p.m. Saturday.

Small stream and gully flooding will increase this evening and overnight across northern and central Vermont as the heavy rain continues.  That will translate to mainstem river flooding on Sunday. Most rivers in Vermont will at least crest at minor flood levels. Several rivers in northern and central Vermont are still expected to reach moderate flood state.  Flood watches remain in effect, obviously.

Temperatures will also stay quite warm in southern Vermont, maybe not dropping below the 55-60 range overnight.

I'll update tonight, maybe, if warranted, and try to do a comprehensive update Sunday morning. That is, if I have power. We'll see how that goes. If you don't hear from me tomorrow morning, I don't have power, and won't be able to post. I'll figure it out eventually if that happens.

Forecast Worsens In NW Vermont; Lots Of Damage In South, Midwest

Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see. The Saturday
morning update to expected ice accumulations.Expect some
ice damage in areas shaded in red. Purple areas can expect
a lot of damage and power outages. 

Northern New York and northwestern Vermont are screwed.

These areas now appear all set to receive a damaging ice storm.   By Sunday morning, a lot of homes and businesses will be without power, and a lot of trees and branches will be on the ground in what will likely be the worst ice storm since 1998.  

As of this morning, the National Weather Service in South Burlington had extended the ice storm warnings that were already in effect for northern New York eastward to encompass Grand Isle county and the western half of Franklin County in Vermont.

In northern New York, ice accumulations are expected to be over an inch in spots. That's more than enough to cause severe damage to trees and power lines. In the ice storm warning zone in Vermont, ice is forecast to be a half to three quarters of an inch thick by Sunday morning.  That's also more than enough to cause a lot of damage.

(As noted yesterday, the criteria for an ice storm warning is if a half inch or more of ice from freezing rain is likely to accumulate. If less than a half inch of freezing rain ice will accumulate, the National Weather Service will go with a winter weather advisory.)

The only real reason this won't be as bad as 1998 is because the freezing rain won't last as long. Instead of a three day affair, the freezing rain will all come within a 12 hour period, give or take, tonight and tomorrow morning.

VERY WET AIR

What this storm has in common with 1998 is the extreme availability of moisture for this time of year.

One common way meteorologist use to determine how much moisture is available for a storm is something called Precipitable Water, or PW.  The measurement doesn't necessarily tell you how much precipitation is going to fall, but it goes like this: If there is one inch of PW, then if all the moisture above that location condenses out, they'd get one inch of rain. You never get all of the moisture condensing out of the atmosphere, but PW is still a good guide for expected rainfall.

Precipitable Water in the atmosphere over northern New York and much of northern Vermont will be at or near record highs for January tonight.  That means rain or freezing rain will come down hard, extremely hard for January.

Total rain or melted ice in northern New York with this storm is expected to be around two to three inches. In northern Vermont, slightly less will fall, with totals expected by NWS South Burlington to be in the one to two inch range.

For comparison, total precipitation for the entire month of January is usually between two and 2.5 inches of rain.

FORECAST STILL TRICKY

As we've been describing, this storm is bringing wet and record warm air up the East Coast.  Places from central New England on down through the Middle Atlantic States and maybe points south will have a lot of record highs today and Sunday.  It could get as high as 80 degrees in West Virginia and the upper 60s in southeastern New England.

Meanwhile, just as the heaviest rain is expected to move into northern New York and Vermont that shallow cold front will come down from Quebec.  Warm air will still roar northward above this cold front, so the precipitation will come down as rain and freeze on contact down on the North Country.

Cold air is more dense than warm air and tends to sink toward valley floors, so this cold air will creep southward more easily where it isn't blocked by mountains. That means it will get cold tonight in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys pretty easily

In Vermont, the cold air has got an open shot to get down as far as Rutland, but it remains to be seen how far the chilly air does get.  There will be a sharp temperature contrast in Vermont, with 20 degree temperature differences late tonight and early Sunday with miles of each other.

Sunday morning, it will probably be in the 20s in far northwestern Vermont and near 60 in the southeast corner.

The varying temperatures so close to each other means its hard to determine who will get ice and how much when you get south and east of Franklin County, Vermont.

Burlington is a wild card. It's the most populated area of the state. It's hard to say if there will be enough ice there to cause a fair amount of damage or will the ice be not that bad? It's almost imposssible to tell.

A weather front will sweep west to east across the region Sunday morning and afternoon, mercifully ending the freezing rain as a brief period of snow, with little accumulation.  Gusty winds with and behind the front will probably cause more damage and power outages and ice-laden trees in the north sway and possibly collapse in the breeze

FLOODING WORRIES

Expected precipitation (rain and melted ice) for the upcoming storm
Areas in yellow and orange can expect to at least 1.5 inches of
precipitation, which is an awfully lot for January. 

Notice I mentioned the precipitable water, above. Areas in northern and central New York and northern and central Vermont that don't get a lot of ice will get a lot of rain.

 Flood watches are still up for all of Vermont except near the Canadian border, and the far southern two counties, where it won't rain nearly as hard as further north.

Very mild air today across all of Vermont and tonight in all but northern Vermont will quickly melt what snow we have out there. All this rain will add the runoff with the melting snow will set probably set up some floooding.  

The first problem will be small streams and creeks tonight, which could wash out parts of roads, driveways and culverts.

The water will then flow in to more major rivers. As it stands now,  forecasts call for moderate flooding on parts of the Winooski and Mad Rivers and Otter Creek, with minor flooding elsewhere.

You've heard the terms minor and moderate flooding bandied about, and here's what they mean:

Minor flooding means few, if any buildings will get flooded, and just some roads, fields, parklands and flood plains will go under water.

Moderate flooding means some buildings might start to flood, roads will be closed by flooding and a few spots might have to be evacuated.

SAFETY:

I'll re-up some tips I put out yesterday here in this space:

1. Today is the day to buy batteries, bottled water and other supplies you'll need to get through power outages that could easily last hours, and perhaps a few days in some spots, especially in northern New York. Remember, especially if you have well water, the pump for the water won't work without electricity.

2. Charge your devices today and this evening, too, so they'll have a full charge in case you need them tomorrow. Remember, Vermont's spotty cell service might be even spottier in areas that get freezing rain, as power outages can affect things, too.

3.  Grab some cash from your bank or ATM, and fill up the car's gas tank. If there's power failures, gas pumps won't work, and stores won't be able to process debit or credit card purchases.

4. If you have a generator, please, please make sure the exhaust is at least 15 feet from the house if posssible and pointed away from the house. You don't want to die of carbon monoxide poisoning.

5.  This should go without saying, but stay away from fallen wires, even if they don't seem like they have electricity flowing through them. Stay out from under ice-laden trees, too. You never know if or when they'll collapse.

6. Check on the elderly and ill, and make sure they're warm enough. If not, and if possible, bring them to someplace that IS warm.

7.  This should be another "Duh!" tip, but don't drive through flooded roads.  It doesn't take much water to sweep a car away.  An additional hazard is the water this time of year is cold, making your chances of dying of drowning and/or hyperthermia greater and quicker.

8.  When this is over and you need to drive somewhere get all the ice off all of your car or truck. Ice flying off your vehicle on the highway can hit the car behind you, breaking their windshield or causing them to lose control and create a crash.  Store your vehicle in a garage if you can. If not, and to make things easier, cover as much of your vehicle with a tarp as you can and secure the tarp down so it doesn't blow away.

After the freezing rain ends, carefully remove the tarp and your vehicle should largely be ice-free.

DANGEROUS NATIONAL WEATHER

As expected, there's widespread damage from severe thunderstorms and some tornadoes in the South, a lot of flooding in other spots, and a bunch of freezing rain and ice damage in the Midwest.

So far, there have been reports of three deaths in Lousiana due to either tornadoes or severe storms.

In Logan, Arkansas, a tornado destroyed a house but the family who lived there was not hurt because they were in a storm shelter, the National Weather Service reported. Damage from the severe thunderstorms was reported from Texas to Tennessee.

Severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes were ongoing early this morning from Kentucky to the Gulf Coast.

Alabama and parts of Mississippi and Georgia are under the gun today for severe storms and possible tornadoes.

A huge area encompassing much of Missouri and Illinois and substantial chunks of adjacent Arkansas and Oklahoma were under flood warnings this morning.

The ice storm that will affect northern Vermont tonight and tomorrow has already brought widespread  icing from Oklahoma to the Great Lakes.

Quick Friday Evening Vermont Storm Update

The latest ice forecast map from the National Weather Service in
South Burlington, issued this afternoon. An inch of very damaging
ice is likely in northern New York. In northern Vermont, ice could
get to near a half inch, especially in the far northern Champlain Valley.
This would definitely lead to some damage just not as bad as NY.

As always with big storms, there are a few adjustments and updates to the forecast for our upcoming nasty storm.

The ice looks like it'll be at its worst in far northern New York, where an ice storm warning is now in effect from Saturday evening through early Sunday afternoon.

There, the rain is likely to come down harder than in Vermont, and the subfreezing temperatures might also last a bit longer in that area. Ice accumulation in the ice storm warning area should come out to be about an inch thick.

That's enough to cause really bad damage to trees and power lines.  Long lasting power outages are likely in this area. Southern Quebec and parts of Ontario are in for the same thing, so it will be totally awful there, too.

In northern Vermont, there's a slightly less dire but still serious ice forecast. Closest to the Canadian border, in northern Grand Isle and Franklin counties, ice is now expected to thicken up to between a quarter to a half inch of ice.

That much  ice would still bring down a lot of trees and power lines and cause pretty widespread outages. But on the bright side, it won't be as bad as 1998, and, if the forecast comes true, the tree damage won't be super devastating, just kinda bad.  It probably won't look like the wholesale disaster zone the way the trees did in 1998.  Be prepared for a lot of yard cleanup with this is over, though.

Click on this map and the ice storm map above to make them bigger
and easier to read. More than 2.5 inches of rain and freezing rain
is likely in northwestern New York, which is an incredible amount
for January. Northern Vermont is getting more than
 an inch of precip, which is still a lot for this time of year. 

In Chittenden, Orleans and Essex counties, there's going to be ice accumulation later Saturday night and Sunday morning, but damage should be relatively light, again, if the forecast comes true.

If it turns a little colder than expected or rain is a little heavier than expected, the ice storm effects could be worse than I'm envisioning here.

Needless to say, road conditions wherever there is freezing rain will be atrocious.

Pretty much all of the forecasted icy areas in Vermont are under a winter weather advisory. But I'm going to advise a little extra on this advisory.

Most winter weather advisories in Vermont tend to be taken by the public as no big deal. Just kind of nuisance winter weather. This storm will go beyond nuisance and be a real problem.

The only main reason I can see that there's not a more dire ice storm warning in Vermont is because the criteria for an ice storm warning is that most of the area affected will have at least a half an inch of ice or more.  It doesn't look like northern Vermont will quite reach that criteria, although a few spots, especially the far northern Champlain Valley will probably see around a half of ice or a little more.

Flooding is still a good bet, too.  Forecasts call for minor to as much as moderate flooding along parts of the Winooski and Mad rivers and the Otter Creek.  This won't be as bad as the Halloween storm of 2019, but of course you would be stupid to drive into any flooded road.

Flood watches are up for the northern two thirds of Vermont, except right along the Canadian border where the already mentioned ice will build up.

As you well know, all this is subject to change as more data comes in. I'll update again Saturday morning, and again as needed as the storm progresses.

REST OF THE NATION:

As expected, severe thunderstorms and probably some tornadoes have been bubbling up, mostly in Oklahoma and Texas.  These will continue to expand and intensify overnight.  Tornadoes and very severe thunderstorms are especially dangerous at night. You don't see them coming and people are sleeping and don't get warnings.

An expansive area of freezing rain was beginning to blossom from western Oklahoma all the way up toward the Great Lakes.  If anything, some of that ice storm could be worse than what we're getting

Also, flood watches remain up for a huge area of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and of course, part of our region.

Dangerous Ice Storm Likely In Parts Of New England, New York

Areas in red are expected to be most likely to get enough freezing
rain to damage trees and power lines Monday. 

The forecast for New England and New York is coming into better focus, and it looks like parts of that region are in for a dangerous ice storm.

Areas surrounding the worst of the expected ice won't have a picnic with this, either.

The big storm in the northern Plains is still unleashing lots snow, ice and rain as of Sunday morning.  The snow and rain since yesterday has made 2019 the wettest year on record in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. The old record was set just last year.  

Total snowfall amid near blizzard conditions in parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota should go over a foot in many places

This storm is dumping, or will dump, a lot of rain and create a severe weather risk today in the South a the system draws lots of moisture fron the Gulf of Mexico.

If all this makes you think the storm has a lot of moisture to work with, you're right.  And that's one key ingredient toward making life miserable in New England and New York on Monday.

That huge influx of moisture will ride up and over a warm front coming at us from the southwest. The problem is, the warm front won't make it through the northern half of New York and New England because of a stubborn chilly high pressure system in Quebec.

The warm air from the south will ride up and over the cold air near the surface that will be draining down from Quebec, setting the region up for the icy mess.

The weather setup has a few simularities to the Great Ice Storm of 1998, but luckily, this one won't be as intense and it won't last nearly as long.  So we won't have a disaster like that.

Areas in yellow are likely to get at least six inches of snow
and sleet accumulation.  Blue areas will get two to four
inches of sleet, snow and some freezing rain 

Still, at this point, it looks like a zone from the Adirondacks, southward into New York's Hudson Valley, southern Vermont, southwestern New Hampshire, western and central Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut are under the gun for a potentially damaging ice storm.

Ice on trees and power lines really starts to cause damage when ice is a quarter inch thick or more. Some spots in the zone I've outlined could easily get more than half an inch of ice from freezing rain.

As you go north and east, more into Vermont and New Hampshire, the amount of freezing rain would decrease if the forecast comes true, but they would get more sleet and snow.

Northern areas, as it stands now, should start as snow, with sleet and a little freezing rain mixing in during the day Monday. Current forecasts indicate four to six inches of sleet and snow - but not much freezing rain - roughly along and north and east of Interstate 89.

The more you head south and west of Interstate 89, the more likely you are to encounter freezing rain on Monday, though these southern areas will get some snow and sleet, too.

Another problem will be wind. Gusts will reach 30 mph, and closer to 40 or 45 mph in some of the western slopes of the Green and Adirondack mountains. Where these strong winds occur along with the freezing rain, the damage to trees and power lines would be magnified.

In the areas where the ice will accumulate the most, be ready for power outages that could last for a couple days. Even longer in more rural areas.

Those of us who will get sleet and snow can expect very difficult travel conditions all day Monday.

Some of this will last into Tuesday as mostly light snow, areas of freezing drizzle and perhaps a bit of plain non-freezing drizzle in the warm pockets continues.

The big caveat is this:  Computer models are in good agreement with how this storm will turn out.  But if the forecasts are off by only a degree or two either way anywhere in the Northeast, the outcome where you sit could turn out very different.

It's always possible that the worst of the freezing rain will set up north, east, south or west of where current forecasts put it. So keep paying attention for forecast updates.

The year 2019 was pretty stormy in the Northeast. The year is ending true to form.

Storm Update: Huge Plains Mess Today; New England Mess Monday

Ice covers trees in my St. Albans yard in 2017. Scenes like this
will be common in parts of the upper Midwest, Ontario and New York
and New England between now and Monday.

That ongoing, slow moving winter storm out in the middle of the nation is, as expected, creating a mess in the middle of hte nation and will continue to do so through the weekend.

This storm is a slow mover, especially compared to the usual fast pace of weather systems this time of year.

This makes the winter weather with this storm even more long-lasting, annoying and disruptive than usual. The storm will also be remembered as one that will have spread ice through large sections of the Plains and elsewhere.  

Then, the action will skip to New England by Sunday night and Monday, and there will be a huge mess there, too. More on that down below, but first we'll get into what's going on in the Plains.

A wide stripe from western Nebraska, central South Dakota, eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota is still getting or going to get socked by eight to 20 inches of snow.  Just east of that, in eastern Nebraska, northwestern Iowa southeastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota, they're in for rain, freezing rain, sleet, then snow, blowing snow and gusty winds, so it will be a real mess where I am in Yankton, South Dakota.

In parts of southwestern Minnesota, an ice storm warning is in effect.  Freezing rain could accumulated to as thick as a half inch, which is more than enough to bring down trees and power lines.

A little to the south in Iowa, a few areas could see enough rain to cause some localized flooding

All this precipitation in South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa is unwelcome for another reason. This year will roughly tie last year as the wettest year on record in this region.  Despite what has been until now a relatively dry December, the ground is still totally soaked from two years of unprecedented rain and other precipitation.

The snow and ice will have to eventually melt, which will just provide more excess water. The James River in South Dakota, unbelievably, has been constantly in flood stage since March.

Further south, broadly in the area where Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas and Oklahoma meet, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms and perhaps a tornado or two later today and tonight.

ON TO NEW ENGLAND

This is just one forecast among many varying ones regarding the
potential for ice Monday. This map depicts ice accumulation
of more than a half inch in darker pink areas. That's enough to
cause damage. I would emphasize this is just one computer run
on one model and results will likely be very different, and likely
not as bad as this forecast indicates. Still something to
with out for, though. 

As the strong storm center moves into the Great Lakes, its warm front will want to come in from the southwest, bringing plenty of moisture for steady precipitation with it.

Meanwhile, cold high pressure way up in Quebec will be stubborn as hell, and not let the warm air advance.

The warm air will try to go up an over the cold air, which sets much of New England and New York up for mixed precipitation. A large section of Ontario is under the gun for freezing rain and sleet, too.

The battle between the cold and warm looks like it will reach a stalemate right over or near northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and maybe Massachusetts, so tha'ts the zone we have to really watch for ice and sleet.

Early indications are the freezing rain would be the biggest problem from the northern Adirondacks, southeastward into far southern Vermont, and into central New England, say in a broad area around Worcester.

There's a risk -not a certainty! -  these areas could see a damaging ice storm. The prolonged nature of the freezing rain from perhaps Sunday night through Monday, could bring enough freezing rain accumulations to bring down trees and power lines.

Remember, this freezing rain zone could end up being a little north and east, or a little south and west of current forecasts, so everybody in and around Vermont will want to watch this one.

People just to the northeast of the most intense freezing rain zone could end up getting a lot of sleet. I suppose that's better, because sleet doesn't accumulate on power lines and trees, it just bounces off. But if you get a bunch of sleet, it's heavier than hell to shovel away.  Far northern New England, maybe northern New Hampshire and a good chunk of Maine stand to get at least several inches of snow.

A secondary storm will likely form south of New England and move northeastward.  That would eventually help colder air leach in through all layers of the atmosphere, which would change much of the rain to snow.

Meanwhile, the parent low over the Great Lakes will slowly weaken and drift toward New England. All this means that the ski areas of Vermont and surrounding states will get a long period of snow. This would go probably from Monday night well into Wednesday.

It won't snow super hard, butthe long duration means the ski slopes would get many inches of recovery snow.  Temperatures won't be very cold, so the light snow would mix with rain in some of the valleys. Plus precipitation will be even lighter in the valleys than in the mountains.

This whole New England forecast, especially for the ice Sunday night and Monday will almost definitely change. This whole essay just gives you an idea of what we might expect. Stay tuned for inevitable adjustments to the forecast.

Bottom line: Expect lousy travel throughout the region Monday, with a risk of spotty power outages and tree damage.

Monday Vermont Evening Storm Update: High Impacts, Tricky Forecast

Well, that promised November winter storm has arrived in Vermont, at least for most of us as of 6 p.m. Monday night.

Light, but steady snow was falling across northern and central sections, and the roads were definitely bad on the commute home.

I avoided getting hit by the SUV sliding uncontrollably down one Burlington hill, and narrowly missed getting hit by some idiot who was fishtailing because the moron was upset the motorist in front of him was "only" going 25 mph in a 25 mph zone in a snowstorm.

The forecast for the rest of the storm is still on track here in Vermont, but there's still a high bust potential in some parts of the state.

The general outline is the same as I described this morning. The northwestern corner of Vermont and northern New York for that matter appears to be in for a LOT of snow.  The further south and east you go, the more mix of precipitation you get. Plus, the intensity of the precipitation is more iffy south and east than it is north and west.

The trick is, where will this borderline between heavy snow and a mix set up? A variance of just a degree or two in the atmosphere above us could really mess up the forecast. If a little more warm air aloft comes north than expected, some northern parts of Vermont would get less snow than forecast.

If the cold air wins out more, more snow could fall in central and perhaps southern Vermont than anticipated.

Whatever happens, the effects on you and me will be basically the same. Either the ice or the snow will mess up the Tuesday morning commute. In addition, in many areas, the mixed precipitation will change to a burst of relatively heavy snow in many locations around here at the time of the morning commute. It will be lousy.

The best guess from the National Weather Service in South Burlington is that far northwestern Vermont (Grand Isle and Franklin counties) and northern New York are in for about a foot of snow, since there will be little or no sleet in these areas.  A winter storm warning remains in effect for the northwestern third of Vermont and most of northern New York.

The big bust potential is roughly a 30 or 40-mile wide line centered between Rutland and St. Johnsbury.  There, extra mixed precipitation might cut down on accumulations or extra snow might boost it.  Almost all of Vermont south and east of the winter storm warning is under a winter weather advisory is up.

Because of the mix and lighter precipitation, southern Vermont could get as little as an inch or two of snow and ice accumulation

Whatever happens, the snow will end west to east across the region during the day, leaving us in the upcoming well-advertised record cold air mass.

Not Alabama: Reivigorated Dorian Targets Carolinas

Devastation in the Bahamas. Image via The Weather Channel

Seemingly indestructable Hurricane Dorian gathered some strength yesterday from the warm Gulf Stream waters east of Florida and is now slogging its way toward the Carolinas, where a lot of damage seems inevitable.  

Early this morning, the National Hurricane Center said Dorian was 75 miles south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina with winds of 115 mph.  Charleston and surrounding areas were already getting gusty rainbands and flooding by dawn, and it will get worse.

Storm surges will range from four to eight feet in many areas, and water levels might rise well in advance of Dorian's strong winds. Many streets in Charleston were flooded by storm surges early this morning. Additionally, six to 12 inches of rain are in the forecast for coastal areas of the Carolinas.

Dorian was also spinning off several tornadoes this morning. There has already been several reports of confirmed tornadoes with damage in North and South Carolina.

Dorian is still expected to parallel the Carolina coast, and might come ashore at least briefly anywhere between South Carolina and North Carolina's Outer Banks.  It'll be close enough to cause hurricane force winds, especially east of Interstate 95.

Trump o Wednesday tried to defend his incorrect Sunday statement
that Dorian would hit Alabama, using an outdated National
Hurricane Center map altered with a Sharpie making it look
like it was headed toward Alabama.

This after all the extreme destruction in the Bahamas, where the death toll has risen to 20. Authorities expect to find more fatalities. Many injured people were airlifted to hospitals in Nassau in the Bahamas. (There is little hurricane damage in Nassau, as Dorian passed well north of that city.)

Meanwhile, we had our own unfortunate hurricane sideshow Wednesday in the White House.  President Trump falsely or mistakenly said on Sunday that Alabama would get hit by Hurricane Dorian.

After that little gaffe, he could have easily corrected himself and moved on. Anyone can make a mistake, and everybody would have forgotten about it.  

About 20 minutes after Trump said Sunday Alabama would be hit, the National Weather Service in Birmingham, Alabama tweeted out assurances to the public that the state was fine, no need to panic. Trump could have then said, "Whoops! We have updated information, Alabama is OK after all."

But oh, no, not Donald! He actually wasted time Wednesday showing a doctored National Hurricane Center map that had been very outdated by the time he made his Alabama comments on Sunday.

Here's a National Hurricane Center map issued Sunday morning,
hours before Trump's Alabama gaffe. He could have consulted
this map, which (accurately) predicted Dorian would
avoid Alabama and parallel the Florida coast instead.

The map was from three days earlier, showing a projected path for Dorian into the heart of Florida. Worse, Trump or more likely somebody on his staff took a Sharpie and appended a further path on the map into southeastern Alabama. Trump needs his own reality,  you understand.

Of course, you'd think a president would have the latest information from the National Hurricane Center. By Sunday, the NHC forecast had Dorian moving northward, paralleling the Florida coast (which is exactly what actually happened.)  Why wasn't he using Sunday's NHC information on Sunday?

By the way, it is technically illegal to falsify a National Weather Service forecast or statement.

Trump later cited so called "spaghetti plots" which are maps that show what each computer model thinks would be the path of the storm. (The lines go in many directions, so all the lines on the map look like a bowl of spaghetti, hence the name.)

The spaghetti plots that Trump said indicated possible Dorian paths into Alabama were issued four days before his statement, so they were outdated. If Trump is that interested in spaghetti plots (doubtful) why didn't he check them Sunday morning, when all of them had Dorian missing Alabama?

Instead of laughably trying to defend himself with big efforts to defend his lies, maybe Trump should focus on a hurricane response in the Carolinas, and to see what the Bahamas need from us.

Long, Hellish Weekend in Louisiana, Mississippi Due To Barry

Tropical Storm Barry was looking somewhat more organized
early this morning on satellite imagtes. 

UPDATE 11 a.m.

Tropical storm Barry briefly achieved hurricane status this morning as it moved into Louisiana, as it had top sustained winds of 75 mph.

These strong winds were only in a small area east of the center, and of course probably have already started weakening.

Plus, Barry certainly does not look like a hurricane on satellite photos. At least not a traditional one.

This brief hurricane status basically means nothing in real terms. The expected outcome is the same: Strong, gusty winds in southern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi, with the biggest impacts being flooding from the expected rainfall of up to two feet

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Tropical Storm Barry, that lopsided mess of a storm, was slowly inching toward the coast of Louisiana this morning, still destined to bring horrible flooding to Louisiana, Mississippi and perhaps beyond for the next few days.

Barry really is one of those storms that on paper, shouldn't be that big a deal. But, as we've pointed out for days, it's very slow and very wet, even by tropical storm standards, so the flooding still looks to be tremendous.

That flooding will begin today, if it hasn't already. Heavy rain was moving onshore early Saturday. Forecasters still expect an incredible ten to 20 inches of rain in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi.

Storm surges have been causing some coastal inundations at least since Friday morning at the times of high tide. Power is already out in many neighborhoods as winds pick up. Some exposed areas along the shore and up high, like in upper floor condos, have had wind gusts to hurricane force already.

Honestly, there's not much new to report on Tropical Storm Barry this morning. Everybody down in the storm zone is just bracing themselves, hoping for the best, and expecting the worst. Baton Rouge is expecting flooding that could easily rival the epic disaster of 2016.

That was just three years ago, and people haven't really recovered from that yet, and here they are getting hit again

For weather geeks, Tropical Storm Barry looks very weird especially for a tropical storm packing top winds of 70 mph and one that could still become a category 1 hurricane.

The northern part of the storm was still blown apart all day Friday by dry air and strong winds aloft, while the southern half of the storm looked intense to say the least. Tropical storms and hurricanes usually have a roughly circular shape. Barry looks more like a ragged half moon.

The storm on satellite looked a bit more like a traditional tropical system this morning, which tells me there's still some opportunity for strengthening as it nears the coast.

Still, because of the more disorganized northern part of the storm, the worst of Tropical Storm Barry will probably come a few hours after landfall. Heavy rain will come out ahead of it, of course, but it'll get really nasty once Barry is inland later today.

Flooding is obviously the big risk, but storms like Barry often spin off a lot of tornadoes, so that's a risk, too. Early this morning, tornado warnings went up in New Orleans, just a few days after another tornado destroyed a house near the city.

Anyway, Saturday morning is a time to watch and wait and see what Barry has in store this weekend. I'm sure there will be some bad news on this by Sunday.

Europe Scorches To All Time Record Highs; Toasty Here, Too, With An Interruption

People try to cool off in the Trocodero Fountain in Paris Friday.
Photo by Zakaria Abdelkafi/Getty Images

Here in Vermont, it got up to 90 degrees in Burlington, the first 90 degree reading of the summer.

Fun fact: Last summer, the first 90 of the year didn't hit until June 30, and we ended up with 17 days that were 90 or over. Normal for an entire summer is about five such days.

It's cooling off today in Vermont, temporarily at least. Plus, if you didn't like Friday's toasty temperatures, it was nothing compared to much of Europe

As you might have heard on the news, France suffered through its hottest day on record. From a climatology standpoint, the record highs were even more impressive than at first glance.

The temperature reached 114.6 degrees at Gallargues-le-Montueux, France Friday, breaking the all-time hot record for France of 111.4 set on August 12, 2003.

It's obviously very rare for a nation to break its hottest temperature. It's downright bizarre to break the previous record by three degrees. These new all time records are almost always broken by a fraction of a degree, or perhaps one degree at most.

On top of this, the hot record was set in June, before the normal hottest part of summer. If there's going to be an all-time record high, you'd expect it later in July or in August.

As the Category 6 blog points out, there's yet another amazing fact regarding the French hot record.  A full dozen weather stations beat or tied France's previous all time record high temperature.

The small principality of Andorra, which is between France and Spain, also established a new all time record high of 102.9 degrees.

If all this is unbelievable here's another factoid: France has a shot today of breaking its all time record high temperature that I just said was established yesterday.

It was so hot in Spain that a pile of manure got so hot it self-ignited, sparking a 10,000 acre wildfire. 

The heat in Europe will roll on through this weekend. It'll shift eastward a bit, so that Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic might establish all time record highs, too. The heat is finally expected to diminish early next week.

The Europe heat wave is part of a trend that's probably connected at least in part to climate change. National Geographic notes that Europe's five hottest summers in the past 500 years have all occurred within the last 15 years.

Heat waves in Europe are exceptionally deadly because the use of air conditioning isn't nearly as widespread as it is in the United States. Fewer than five percent of German and French homes have air conditioning.

At least 70,000 Europeans died in a long, punishing heat wave in 2003. About 56,000 Russians met a similar fate in an epic 2010 heat wave there.

U.S. HOT, BUT NOT AS BAD

Summer does seem to be getting its act together in the United States. A broad area in the northern and  central Plains,  which had experienced a cold and wet winter and spring, is now under a heat advisory. 

Heat indexes in this neck of the woods are over 100 degrees today and tomorrow.

Back home in Vermont, it will actually be a fair amount cooler than normal Sunday with lots of clouds and an unseasonable cold, upper level low overhead. But that will quickly clear out by Monday.

The entirety of next week in Vermont won't exactly have record heat like Europe, but it will be on the warm side, with increasing humidity toward the end ofthe week.