"Medicane" Slams Greece As Expected With Bad Floods, Wind, Waves

Satellite view of the "medicane" coming ashore in southwestern
Greece yesterday

That "medicane" I referred to in this here blog thingy yesterday came ashore in Greece as expected unleashing devastating flash floods and roiling the Mediterranean coastline with battering waves and high winds.

The storm is still raging as it heads toward western Turkey, so obviously not all the news is in about this medicane.

Still some of the videos are impressive already.

The first one is waves generated by the storm slamming into Sicily:




Things looked even worse near where the storm made landfall in Peloponnese, Greece as waves destroyed boats and trashed the shoreline. A waterspout even came ashore:




And here's some terrible flash flooding due to the storm:

Weird Storms Have Weather Geeks Geeking Out. You Might, Too

This "medicane" in the Mediterranean Sea is threatening Greece and Turkey

A couple of odd storms have formed in different parts of the world, making us weather geeks take notice.

Some of the storms are dangerous, some are not really that scary. At least for now.  But they are interesting

"MEDICANE" THREATENS GREECE

A storm in the Mediterranean Sea has taken on a lot of the characteristics of a tropical storm or hurricane, which is somewhat unusual for that part of the world.

The Mediterranean is usually considered too small, and often too chilly to support any kind of tropical storm. But sometimes, a regular storm in that region will take on tropical characteristics, and that's what this storm has done.

Regular storms have warm and cold fronts, and often the strongest winds are away from the storm's center. Tropical storms feed off warm ocean water, are symmetrical and have thunderstorms and strongest winds closest to its center.

According to the British Met Office, the storm got its non-tropical start the way most non-tropical storms do. Cold air from the Balkans clashed with warm air from the Sahara and boom! You had a storm.

The storm then sat over the Mediterranean, and gradually become more and more like a tropical storm as it steep itself in the effects of the warm Mediterranean.

The "medicane" will bring gusty winds to parts of Greece and torrential rains to Greece and western Turkey. Flooding is definitely a threat.

Medicanes do happen from time to time. The Met Office notes there medicanes in the region in 2014, 2016 and 2017.

SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE

Some of us have pretty complicated backgrounds and so does Leslie, a storm out over the Central Atlantic.

It began life as a tropical storm, like how I described above. It had a warm core, it fed off toasty ocean water, looked pretty symmetrical and had its strongest winds near the center.

Then a cold front and a powerful upper level low pressure system plowed into Leslie. That turned it into just a regular storm system, with warm and cold fronts. It was a powerful one, with very strong winds and waves. It's sending rip currents and dangerous surf toward the East Coast as we speak.

Now, this storm is heading slowly toward the southwest, over warmer ocean waters. It's beginning to take on the characteristics of a tropical storm again. Right now it's a hybrid, know as a subtropical storm.

As it continues toward the southwest, it's expected to become fully tropical again, and grow into a hurricane. It's path is pretty unusual too, possibly heading almost due south for a time in a few days.

It's unknown if Leslie will ever become a threat to land. For now, it's kind of meandering out there.

HURRICANE ROSA TO SOAK ARIZONA OF ALL PLACES

A hurricane named Rosa was pretty powerful off the west coast of Mexico over the past few days. It's weakening, but it's taking a path that will take it across Baja California and into Arizona of all places

By the time it hits Arizona, Rosa will be just be tattered remnants of her former self. But the storm will spread torrential rains into the normally arid Desert Southwest, which will include a big chunk of Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada, including Las Vegas.

Flash flood watches are already up in this region, effective Monday afternoon into Wednesday. Rainfall rates might go to one to two inches an hour in this area, which is extraordinary for the Desert Southwest.

On the bright side, some of this tropical moisture looks like it will make it up into Utah and parts of western Colorado, which are very dry and under a forest fire danger at the moment.

We'll have to watch the remains of Rosa in a week or so. Its left over upper level energy could spark some heavy rain in the upper Midwest - places like Wisconsin and Minnesota- which have had flooding problems and is very wet already.

While this tropical situation in Arizona is kind of rare it is by no means unique. In October, 1983, the remnants of Tropical Storm Octave caused a disastrous flood in Arizona that killed 14 people and caused about $370 million in damage.

East Coast So Wet A Little Rain Raises Flood Threat

Flash flooding in Jericho, Vermont in 2013. Vermont has escaped
the heavy rains that have repeatedly swamped the East Coast from
Southern New England to the Carolinas. Scenes like this one
have been common in that region all summer and into the fall.

Unlike here in northern Vermont, it has been a super, duper wet summer from southern New England down to the Carolinas.

Flooding has been a constant threat all summer. There have been repeated, disastrous floods since May, culiminating with the Hurricane Florence disaster in the Carolinas.

Some areas in the East are having record wet years so far. A few places have had 20 or more inches of rain more than normal for this point in the year.

This morning, a middling storm is passing up the East Coast, dropping one to two inches of rain along most of its path.

Such amounts of rain are usually no big deal, But the ground is so saturated that flood alerts this morning extend from Virginia to southern New England. 

Connecticut especially doesn't need the rain they're getting this morning. While we up north got relatively moderate amounts of rain Tuesday and Wednesday, they got dumped on big time. Up to eight inches of rain fell, causing flash floods that damaged homes and businesses, and blocked numerous roads.

Here in northern Vermont, this morning's rain was lighter than in points south, but still welcome indeed. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, issued Thursday, still has a good chunk of northwestern Vermont in a moderate drought, but that doesn't really take into account the rain we had Wednesday.

This September in northern Vermont has actually been a bit wetter than normal. Nothing extreme, but we'll take it.

I think as we keep getting rains (I hope!) the drought will slowly fade. The good news over the next week is that northern New England is expected to get another inch or so of rain, but the Middle Atlantic States and southern New England will get very little precipitation.

Maybe they can start to dry out a little.

Perfect Storm: Botched Severe Weather Forecast; But Rain Pours Down

The sky looked volatile enough over South Burlington, Vermont on
Wednesday but the expected severe thunderstorms never developed
This post explains why the forecast was wrong and why you
should be happy it was.

If you want to botch a weather forecast, Wednesday in Vermont was how to do it.

Most forecasters and weather weenies and pundits, including yours truely, warned everyone that Vermont and surrounding areas were in for some severe weather on Wednesday.  

Oh, we were going to have thunderstorms with strong damaging wind gusts! There was even the possibility of a tornado! WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!!!!!!!!!

And then, we got........rain.

Yep, rain. Just a September downpour for a lot of us.

Oh, sure, it rained really hard under some of those showers. Winds did gust to a whopping 30-35 mph in a few spots. But this was nothing compared to some of our dire forecasts.

Here's what went wrong: A lot of the ingredients were there for severe weather. There were strong winds just a few thousand feet above us. Winds changed in direction and speed with height. That's a recipe of severe storms.

One thing that turned out to be especially crucial for severe storms on Wednesday proved to lack, big time. That was sunshine.

Sunshine would have heated the lower levels of the atmosphere a lot more than they were heated Wednesday. That would have created some nice updrafts. Those updrafts would have grabbed some of those high winds a few thousand feet above us and brought them to the surface as damaging gusts.

The instability created by sunshine would have allowed thunderstorms to hold together. To give them time to strengthen and start rotating. A rotating storm has the potential to create tornadoes.

Everybody knew in advance there wouldn't be much sun, but the figuring was there would be enough. But the situation called for more breaks in the clouds than what forecasters thought would be sufficient.

The clouds won. There was precious little sunshine anywhere in and near Vermont on Wednesday. The overcast was persistent. That limited the instability.

The dynamic atmosphere, combined with high humidity, was certainly able to generate lots of showers. Several lines of them passed through Vermont. There were many downpours. Just not the excitement many were expecting.

The closest thing to Vermont with any damage of note was a single tree that toppled over in Saratoga Springs, New York. Yawn.

You might be mad at forecasters for what you might think was over-hyping the situation. But these things happen. Meteorology is still inexact. Scientists don't know everything that goes on with the atmosphere. Weather forecasts have gotten better in recent years, but meteorologists still don't at 1,000 when it comes to predictions.

And now I'm going to turn the tables and lecture you.

You should be happy there was no severe weather. You should be happy there were all kinds of downpours.  We needed it. Did you really want people to suffer property damage? That this kind of thing didn't happen is a good thing.

Northern Vermont continues to be in a drought. Yes, we had some beneficial rains last Friday. But dig a couple inches into the ground, as I did in my St. Albans yard Tuesday and you hit dust. These downpours were another chip in the armor of that drought.

More showers like Wednesday's over the course of the next several weeks would erase any drought conditions we might still have.  Bless the rain!

Today, Thursday, it's back to autumn. The forecast is easier today, so I'm pretty sure it's accurate. First off: No severe weather. No rain to speak of. Just partly sunny skies and afternoon temperatures at pleasantly cool levels - in the low 60s. Skies will probably trend cloudier during the course of the afternoon. But there's nothing exciting in the forecast for today.

Be happy with that, too, my dears.

Severe Storm Threat Definitely On Today In Vermont, Surrounding Areas

We here in Vermont are in the middle of a severe
thunderstorm risk today. Strong straight line winds are
the big

When I got up this morning and looks up at the clouds, they were screaming by, north to south. If Vermont State Police could catch them, they would issue speeding tickets for sure.

Those speeding clouds are a sign that we are in for severe weather. I was looking up at something called a low level jet. It's essentially a package or river of fast moving air just a few thousand feet overhead.

Under the right conditions, thunderstorms can "grab" this high speed air and bringing to the surface in the form of very damaging wind gusts.

We have most of those right conditions today.

A cold front is approaching from the west. If you've been outside, you noticed it has turned humid again. And we have that low level jet.

The only thing missing is a lot of sunshine. That would destabilize the air even more, making severe thunderstorms more likely. Watch the skies between 9 a.m. and 1 p.m. today: If there's a lot of sun, the severe thunderstorms goes up.

The main risk in today's storms is those strong, damaging wind gusts. Of course, not everybody will get that, but a few to several places probably will. The current thinking is the  thunderstorms coming in today will probably in the form of a broken line heading east.

Watch out in particular for sections of this line of storms that form something that looks like  a backwards "C" on radar. Those are called bowing echoes. The apex of the backwards "C" is an area that will be especially dangerous for destructive winds.

While not a high threat, there is a slight chance of a tornado or two. A tornado would be most likely if a storm forms ahead of the main line of rough weather and starts to rotate. We could get a supercell or two out of this, anywhere in eastern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and perhaps points south.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is giving us a
very slight, but non-zero chance of a couple
tornadoes today. 

Of course the chances of seeing a twister are low. Vermont and New Hampshire are in a 5 percent chance zone for a tornado. That means if you are in these two states, there's a 5 percent chance a tornado will touch down within 25 miles of you.

You see, a slim chance, but not a zero chance. Already, there were brief tornado warnings earlier this morning in western New York and western Pennsylvania.

By the way, southern Quebec, including Montreal is under the gun for all this potential severe weather, too. The Ottawa area, which saw devastating tornadoes last Friday, is under a much lesser threat today.

The biggest threat for severe storms today will be between 1 p.m. and 7 p.m.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington,  ermont is thinking the main line of storms will form in northern New York between 1 and 3 p.m this afternoon, then reach the Champlain Valley around 4 p.m., give or take, then be out of Vermont and into New Hampshire by 8 p.m. or so.

If you've got lawn furniture and loose objects outside, I'd bring them inside or tie them down this morning in case strong thunderstorm winds hit.

If you have plans to go boating or hiking today, cancel those plans. Go tomorrow instead. The weather will be gorgeous by then. Trust me.

Also, today's the wrong day to park your car under an old, rotting tree.

There is a decent chance National Weather Service will issue a severe thunderstorm watch or even, possibly, a tornado watch later this morning or early this afternoon. That would be a signal to go about your business as usual, but keep your ear perked up for potential warnings.

If you get a severe thunderstorm warning, get inside a sturdy building and stay away from windows. (In a worse case scenario, flying debris in strong winds could break the glass.)  In the off chance you get a tornado warning, just go to the basement in a sturdy building. If there's no basement, get into an a room with no windows closest to the middle of the building.

Some of these storms will also have torrential, blinding rain. The storms will move fast and not linger over any one place for a long time. That means that there will be no substantial flooding. But the rain will be so intense that street flooding can occur in an instant. Drainage ditches and small streams could turn pretty wild pretty fast, too.

It all clears out this evening, and it's back to delightfully crisp, sunny fall weather Thursday.

Autumn Rains Begin To Chip Away At Drought; Severe Threat Wednesday

Some spots in the yellow area of this map could get severe thunderstorms
on Wednesday. The principal risk from these storms is strong,
straight line winds. 

UPDATE 1:30 p.m. Tuesday:

Though forecasts can still change and go the other way, as of early this afternoon, the threat of severe weather here in Vermont tomorrow seems to be increasing, at least according to the latest forecasts.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center as of early this afternoon is still targeting the area you see on the map for at least a slight chance of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.

However, depending on what new data between now and tomorrow morning read, the Storm Prediction Center might upgrade the risk level to "Enhanced" for eastern New York and Vermont.

The scale of risk from the SPC is marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate and high.  Enhanced means more than just one or two storms. There may be a fair number of severe weather reports in such a region. We'll see how that sugars off.

Worse, there are somewhat increased signs that rotating thunderstorms could get going in the region, especially, perhaps in the Champlain Valley.  By the way, not all rotating thunderstorms produce tornadoes. Most don't. But if a storm rotates, you have to watch it carefully because it does have some potential of creating a twister.

In the Champlain Valley, it's possible a supercell thunderstorm or two could get going ahead of the main line of storms. That would mean a slight tornado risk. Also, some storms along the main line of bad weather could create some spin ups.

This forecast model, called teh HREF depicts rotating
thunderstorms in norther Vermont Wednesday (those
are the grey, blue and green streaks circled) While
this might or might not happen, rotating
thunderstorms can sometimes, but certainly not
always, spin up a tornado.

One forecast model, called the HREF, depicts rotating thunderstorms - with the possibility of a tornado - Wednesday afternoon. Also, given the overall wind direction, the orientation of the Champlain Valley could locally increase the spin of some storms.

This is just one of many forecast models. Don't hang your hat on that one. Meteorologists will be looking at a slew of computer and human forecast to determine what risk we have tomorrow, if any.

Besides, there are factors that argue against storms strong enough to produce a tornado.
There is some question as to whether enough instability will be present to create such a scenario.

All this isn't meant to be a scare tactic. The chance of a tornado tomorrow is still very low. Even if a tornado forms, 99 percent of us wouldn't get hit by it. The main threat from any thunderstorm tomorrow would be damaging straight line winds. Which can be almost as bad as a tornado, really.

All I'm suggesting is you should keep a particular eye on the weather Wednesday afternoon and evening and be prepared to get inside really quickly if threatening weather approaches. This ain't Oklahoma, so we're not all going to blow away tomorrow.

The number of tornadoes nationwide has been low this year. However, in the Northeast, tornadoes have been unusually frequent in 2018. Still, no tornadoes have been reported in Vermont this year. Which is a good thing. I had better stay that way but like I say, eye on the sky, please.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

We're off to a good start with our shift into autumn weather here in Vermont. We need to get rid of a drought hanging around, and we're chipping away at it.

Last Friday, we had a good soaking in northern Vermont for the first time in ages. We had to put up with a lot of wind and fallen tree branches, but it was worth it.

Today and tomorrow, we face more wind, but also more rain, which is great. The possibility of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday isn't so great, but we'll get through it.

The summertime pattern that featured near constant, flooding downpours from New Jersey to Virginia, but high heat and drought up her in the North Country, has totally broken down, finally.

Autumn can very often be a battleground between the lingering heat of summer to the south, and the building winter chill up north. Lately, that battle ground is running from the Midwest, through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.

When you are in this seasonal battleground, chances are high you will get storminess and precipitation.

The latest wet, welcome slap is giving us our chilly, rainy I-want-to-hibernate Vermont weather today. It's a warm front, but of course it won't get warm until the front passes by. The warm front is lifting air ahead of it like a snowplow would push a snowbank up and ahead of it.

Rising air like this means rain, which is why we're getting this nice, steady rain today. Those of you in the Northeast Kingdom who have not seen the rain will get it soon.

The warm front will pass by tonight, and the showers will become lighter and scattered. Overnight will actually be warmer than this afternoon because of the passing of this front.

On Wednesday, we'll get into a zone of warm, humid air. Don't worry, it won't be like the oppressive, high heat we so often experienced in the summer. Instead, temperatures will be well into the 70s, and you'll definitely work up a sweat with any physical activity outdoors. It will be muggy.

Much like last Friday,a cold front will be approaching from the west. Last Friday's cold front caused mayhem in Ontario and Quebec, with an outbreak of severe weather and strong tornadoes. Those storms last Friday weakened dramatically by the time they got to Vermont. It was night, so there was no sun to destabilize the air.

This time, tomorrow, the timing of the cold front is such that Vermont could be in zone of maximum strength thunderstorms.  Again, don't worry. Tomorrow's storms will not be nearly as bad as those that struck Ontario and Quebec last Friday.

Still, we are at risk of some severe thunderstorms. Some sun will probably break out here and there, helping to destabilize the atmosphere. Strong winds will be blowing high above us. The speed and direction of these winds will shift depending upon how high above the earths' surface you are.

That's a recipe for severe thunderstorms.

There's still no guarantee the severe storms over Vermont and much of the rest of the Northeast will develop. Things have to come together just right. If severe storms DO develop, not everybody will get them.

However, some of us could easily face the prospect of strong, damaging winds with a few of the thunderstorms that pass over Vermont Wednesday afternoon and evening.

At this point, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is thinking the greatest potential for damaging winds in any thunderstorms would be across eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York and western New England. I do expect some adjustments to this forecast. There are always changes to predictions when there's a dynamic situation such as this.

Because of changing wind directions with height, there is a very, very remote chance of a brief tornado, but definitely don't count on that. The principal risk from the storms will be strong, straight line winds in a few areas.

My advice for you: Do whatever you planned to do tomorrow, unless it involved boating on the lake or hiking in the mountains. I'd postpone that for a day. For everybody else, just keep one ear on your weather radio or however else you get weather warnings.

If your area is one of the lucky ones to fall under a severe thunderstorm warning, do the usual precautions: Get indoors, and stay away from the windows until the storms pass.

Looking ahead, we remain in the weather battleground. That means storms will pass by fairly close to us, repeatedly swinging warm and cold fronts over us. Things will move right along, so rainfall in any one of these episodes won't be particularly heavy, and won't last all that long.

Which is OK. You don't want the rain all at once. The ground will gradually get wetter with each passing weather front, and that's fine by me.

New Carolina Flooding Week After Florence; Severe Vermont Weather Wednesday?

Dead fish on Interstate 40 in North Carolina after water
receded off the roadway.

Hurricane Florence began to depart the Carolinas a week ago today, after spending a full weekend drenching the region in record rains.

It hasn't really rained in the Carolinas since, but water from Florence is still causing worsening flooding even today.

Some rivers in the Southeast drain slowly, so flood crests move downstream slowly.

So, up to 8,000 people in Georgetown County, South Carolina have been told to get out of their houses by today, as a flood crests from the Pee Dee and Waccama rivers approach.

The Pee Dee River has already caused destructive flooding upstream in North Carolina.

In North Carolina five rivers remain at major flood stage and several more are at least at moderate flood levels. Some water has receded near Wilmington, North Carolina, which had been cut off because flooding had submerged all routes into the city last week. That's the good news.

The bad news is the Cape Fear River is still rising, and could send floodwaters into downtown Wilmington, which had earlier largely escaped the worst of the flooding.

Parts of Interstates 95 and 40 remain closed, as do dozens of main state highways in North and South Carolina.

At last check the death toll from Florence was at 43. The Weather Channel says Moody's Analytics puts the damage total so far from Florence at about $44 billion, making this one of the top 10 costliest disasters in recent United States history.

Water receded from one stretch of Interstate 40, leaving parts of the highway littered with thousands of dead fish. The Penderlea, North Carolina Fire Department was called in to spray the dead fish off the highway with their hoses.

"Well, we can add 'washing fish off the interstate" to the long list of interesting things firefighters get to experience," the fire department said in a Facebook post.

VERMONT SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY?

The area in yellow could see severe thunderstorms Wednesday.
Note that Vermont is in this zone. 

It's becoming possible that severe thunderstorms could hit Vermont on Wednesday, along with a big chunk of the rest of the Northeast

We're enjoying tranquil autumn weather today with highs in the pleasantly cool low 60s (as opposed to the record 91 degree heat on this date last year.) The weather looks like it will get, um, interesting over the next couple of days.

First, a warm front will move across the region Tuesday. The good news with that is it will spread more showers across the area, which still needs more rain. Gusty winds will again get going in the Champlain Valley, but it won't be as harsh as it was on Friday.

After the warm front passes, we'll get into a zone of warm, humid air for this time of year. In the Champlain Valley,  highs could approach 80 degrees on Wednesday if the sun comes out enough, and it will feel sticky.

The amount of sun we get Wednesday will be one important factor on whether some thunderstorms that develop will turn severe.

A cold front will be approaching in an atmosphere with strong upper level winds and other conditions suitable for strong thunderstorms. If it remains overcast, the air will remain relatively stable and rambunctious thunderstorms will be few and far between.

If the sun comes out, the air will be more unstable, and the line of storms coming into Vermont from New York would be stronger. In any event, not everyone will get a severe storm Wednesday. But it's possible a few areas could get damaging wind gusts.

A lot can change between now and Wednesday. We'll want to wait and see if the timing of the cold front, and whether the atmosphere will be unstable enough for an outbreak of strong storms. We'll keep you posted.

Video: A fire department hoses dead fish off of Interstate 40 in North Carolina as flood waters recede, in that area, anyway:

Got Snow? Summer Ends As Winter Wonderland In Parts Of Canada

Snow in Canada on the last dau of
summer. Photo via Twitter @adicsask  

By this time of year, snow enthusiasts here in Vermont are looking desperately for the first hints of mountain snow, even though ski areas won't open until October at the extreme earliest. Most of them open in November.

There's not much like that yet to whet people's snow appetite here in Vermont. There was some rime ice atop Mount Washington, New Hampshire Saturday, and I thought I spotted a bit of white at the tippy top of Whiteface Mountain, New York yesterday, but that's about it.

The snow will get here soon enough. If you're really that desperate for snow, you should have headed to Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada on Friday, the last full day of summer.

It was a summertime winter wonderland up in that neck of the woods. Most of us shudder at that idea, but for those of you out there who are into this kind of thing, knock yourself out.

Up to six inches of snow fell on parts of Saskatchewan on Friday. About an inch fell on the  Saskatoon,  the largest city in the province, CBC reported.

The snow spread into western Manitoba, causing quite a few power outages there, says the CBC.

The snow was earlier than usual in that neck of the woods, but not unprecedented. But it did have people groaning about their short summers made shorter by this end of summer snow.

The cold was depressing for people up there, too. Normally, high temperatures there are in the low 60s - not warm, but OK. But afternoon readings only got into the 30s. Temperatures will warm up a bit over the next few days.

The snow has been more than depressing for farmers in northwestern Saskatchewan. It could ruin them, The Weather Network says. Farmers are way behind in harvesting, and for awhile anyway, those crops were under snow.

Rain, cold temperatures, thick smoke from wildfires further to the west and now snow have made things a nightmare for those trying to harvest crops. So far, only 17 percent of crops in northwestern Saskatchewan have been harvested, reports The Weather Network. 

Environment Canada is forecasting continued cold weather, but thankfully drier conditions, over the next week.

Back here in Vermont, there's no snow in the forecast yet. It can snow in the mountains this time of year, but at least for the next week or more, nada.

Keep those skis and snowboards in the closet for now. It probably wouldn't hurt to start shopping for season passes, though, unless you've done so already.

First Fall Storm Stronger Than Expected, Tragically So In Quebec

Tornado destruction in Gatineau, Quebec Friday.

As advertised, the first autumn storm of the season blustered through the Northeast and southeastern Canada, including here in Vermont on Friday.

The storm in some ways was stronger than expected, especially in Quebec and Ontario. That strength unleashed an unexpected disaster near Ottawa.

In Gatineau, Quebec a tornado - and it looks like it was a strong one - swept through the city, injuring at least 25 people, with five having serious enough injuries to be hospitalized.

The storm displaced at least 600 people. This same storm caused added destruction in the nearby communithy of Dunrobin.

Gatineau is just across the Ottawa River from Ottawa, Canada's national capital. It was something seeing a photo of Parliament Hill with the national legislative building in the foreground, with a tornado in the background picking up debris and explosively breaking power lines.

The tornado appears to be unusually strong for one so far north and so late in the season. Given the photos of shattered apartment buildings, many with their roofs gone and debris scattered far and wide, I would guess the twister was an EF2, possibly and EF3. Tornadoes of that strength are rare in Quebec and Ontario, though weaker ones are relatively common.

The view from Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Friday. The lowering
cloud and what appears to be dust nearer the ground between the
green spire and the red flag is the Gatineau tornado.

There are pretty incredible videos of the tornado at the bottom of this post that are worth watching.

Tornadoes hit other parts of Canada. Pontiac, Quebec apparently had a tornado that damaged at least 15 homes. Back in Gatineau, lighting struck the high school and it burst into flames. Students inside the school were safely evacuated.

Further south, a small tornado spun up in northeastern Ohio, and there were numerous reports of wind damage from severe thunderstorms in eastern Ohio and the western portions of Pennsylvania and New York.

Had the storm system's cold front and squall line come through sooner, this storm would have been real trouble for us here in Vermont and northern New York. But the squall line entered the region after dark and it also encountered more stable air. The line of strong storms that entered northwestern New York weakened dramatically by the time they reached Vermont.

Still, we had those strong winds ahead of the cold front. About 3,000 people still had no electricity in Vermont as of early this morning, according to Vermont Outage Map. However, that number shrank to less than 1,000 by 7 a.m., so power is quickly being restored.

The shoreline in South Hero, Vermont was looking rather
stormy Friday evening.

Winds gusted to more than 50 mph along Lake Champlain. While on the southern tip of South Hero last evening, I even had to brace myself against the wind a bit like those Weather Channel meteorologists who stand outside during hurricanes.

I did see many branches downed by the wind. Most were small, but a few were pretty good sized.

On my St. Albans, Vermont property, one 20-foot long tree narrowly missed a new lilac. Out by the road, a dead tree crashed against some live ones, but I don't think there's much damage there.

The good news in Vermont is the storm dumped more rain than expected. In the northern half of Vermont, where it has been driest, a half inch to an inch of rain came down. That was nice.

This coming week looks wet, too. It will be dry and cool this weekend, and we should worry about frost in many places at night. Tonight, there are frost and freeze advisories in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks

More widespread frost alerts might be needed tomorrow night, so stay tuned.

Another storm that could be a fairly wet one will affect Vermont Tuesday night through Wednesday night. More than an inch of additional rain is possible with this one. Unfortunately, it also looks like another windy one, especially on Tuesday. However, winds probably won't be as strong as they were Friday.

Here are some videos of the wild  and scary Quebec tornado:

The first video is said to be from inside a Gatineau apartment building:



Here, a terrified woman in her car gets caught in the tornado as the side windows of the vehicle blow out:



Another view from inside a car, via a dashcam in Dunrobin, Quebec. The driver pulls the car against a building for protection as the tornado passes over her, hurling debris that hit the car. After the tornado passed, she drove on into a scene of destruction:

Don't Wear A Hat: Vermont's First Fall Season Wind Storm Today

Strong winds today in the Champlain Valley will break a few branches,
but it won't be anything like last year's epic October windstorm that
caused widespread damage, including to this Milton, Vermont home.

UPDATE, 11 AM:

The warm front that is coming through Vermont this morning has a lot more oomph to it than I thought it would, and that's a great thing.

Rainfall, accompanied by a few lightning strikes and thunder booms, has been heavier than I anticipated.

Burlington, Vermont is up to more than a half inch of rain. Much of the rest of droughty northwest Vermont got similar amounts.

The rain will soon end as the warm front goes by. This afternoon, and evening, we're still under the gun for strong winds.

The wind advisory has been upgraded to a high wind warning in Grand Isle County, Vermont and elsewhere right along the immediate shores of Lake Champlain. Wind gusts between 2 and 8 p.m. today in this area could reach or exceed 60 mph, which would cause a fair number of power outages.

The previous wind advisory for the rest of the region remains on.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

Hang on to your hat! Today in Vermont is going to be quite a windy one, especially if you're in the Champlain Valley.

It all started this morning with a warm front, which managed to bring some gusty winds and downpours to northern Vermont.

Which is OK, we needed the rain. The wind and downpours I encountered on the way to work this morning reminded me of a tropical storm, though of course today's weather has nothing to do with a tropical storm.

And if the rain hasn't tapered off and ended where you are, it will soon. .

The weather pattern almost every autumn features storms heading northeastward across the Great Lakes or up the St. Lawrence Valley of New York.

Once summer is over,  low pressure systems tend to get stronger and you get wind.

If a storm goes to our west, the wind comes from the south, at least until the storm's cold front swings through. The Champlain Valley of Vermont and New York, and the St. Lawrence Valley of New York, tend to channel these winds, and you get a lot of strong gusts as a result.

Today, we're going to get the first of these windstorms of the fall season.

A wind advisory is up for the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valley. The peak of the wind will come this afternoon and evening, when gust on exposed areas right along Lake Champlain could reach 55 mph. Otherwise, gusts will reach the 45 to 50 mph range.

Winds were already increasing before dawn at my house in St. Albans, Vermont, but I'd say peak gusts at around 6 a.m. were only about 20 mph. The real show starts later.

The expected winds will be strong enough to take down some branches, maybe a couple of trees and some power lines. There will likely be power failures here and there this evening.

This type of wind storm, as I said, is pretty common in the Champlain Valley during the autumn and early winter. But the first ones of the season, like this one, tend to cause more problems than the later ones.

That's because right now, most of the leaves are still on the trees. Each leaf acts like a little sail, and the leaves tug harder on the branches in the wind than when the trees are leafless. You tug harder on a branch, and it's more likely to snap off.

Which means your lawn is more likely to be littered by twigs and branches by Saturday morning than it would if the same storm came through in November. Leafless trees don't have those little "sails" so the branches don't get tugged and broken as much later in the year.

Though I'm talking about scattered power failures and broken branches later today, this storm will not be nearly as bad as the epic wind storm that swept through toward the end of last October. Unlike last year's storm, I don't expect widespread, long lasting power outages. I don't imagine people's roof shingles will blow off and I don't expect zillions of trees to come down

But if you thinking of wearing that fancy, dancy but loose fitting hat, today is not your day.

You should also cancel any plans to be out on Lake Champlain today. With winds gusting to 55 mph and waves of five to seven feet tall, it's dangerous out there. Though I suspect some wind surfers might go out there anyway.

Some forecasters were toying with the idea of severe thunderstorms this evening as the storms's cold front comes in. It does seem as if there's a decent chance of severe weather, maybe eve a tornado or two in western New York later today.

But those storms will weaken after dark as they move into Vermont. Some of those weakening storms might have enough punch left to pull down some even stronger winds aloftt and bring them down to the surface tonight. Which means one or two spots could get a particularly strong gust as the showers come through.

These showers don't look all that impressive in terms of rainfall amounts, despite this morning's downpojurs, so there won't be much relief from the drought over northern Vermont. Southern Vermont is not in a drought and got additional rain the other day, so they're not in trouble.

The good news is it looks like we're falling, at least for now into a somewhat cooler and wetter weather pattern. While the drought won't instantly disappear in northern Vermont, there's hope that it will gradually wane over the next couple of months.

Rest Of The World Baked Along WIth Us Vermonters In August

Just like every other month in recent years, August, 2018
was hot across the Globe. 

Us Vermonters have barely gotten over our hottest August on record. Meanwhile, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information said we had company.

On the Earth overall, August, 2018 was the fifth hottest on record. Those records date back to 1880.

This August global heat means that each of the last five Augusts are in the top five toastiest on record.

There were very few cool spots to be found on Earth in August, 2018. The only areas I could find that were a bit on the cool side were far northwestern Canada and northeastern Alaska, a patch of the North Atlantic south of Greenland, a little bit of central South America, and a few scattered spots in western Australia.

Heat in August, 2018 was particularly strong in, well, Vermont and much of the rest of New England, western Europe, especially up in Scandanavia, New Zealand and South Korea.

For the summer as a whole (June 1 through August 31), the world as a whole also had its fifth warmest summer.  So far this year, the Earth is having its fourth hottest year on record. The world will likely finish out 2018 as having a year in the Top 6 warmest.

All this comes without an El Nino, which tends to warm things up on the Earth as a whole. Some indications are that an El Nino is developing, which increases the odds the hot times will continue in 2019.

This should go without saying, but the fact that almost all of the warmest years on record for the Earth have happened in the past five years, global warming is having a huge influence on the climate, overcoming even the normal cyclical highs and lows and bumps and dips we get in the Earth's temperature trends.

Autumn Arrived Last Evening In Vermont. We Mean It This Time

This cool, cloudy September morning, after an odd stretch of very
warm, humid weather broke, signs of fall color around my
St. Albans, Vermont house. 

Yesterday was another frustratingly warm, too humid day in Vermont. An expected cold front was tardy, so relief from the neverending summer was not forthcoming.

Until late afternoon and evening, that is, when that cold front gloriously dropped down from Canada.

I was sweating it out in the garden, trying to get some work done. I was cursing the heat, how it was making me drag.

Then that north breeze finally came up. The tardy cold front was finally here.

Within a half hour I went from melting into the heat to drinking in the suddenly cooler, drier air. Boy did I feel re-energized!

We'd just endured six consecutive days in the 80s and four consecutive days at or above 85 degrees. At Burlington, Vermont, Tuesday was the 82nd day this year that got to 80 degrees or more

The cool air that came in last evening was a relief for sure.

This cold front was the end of summer in Vermont. Period. Oh, sure, we'll have a couple or few more days that will be warm and summery. Possibly even humid. This coming Friday looks like it might be one of those days, for instance.

But normal temperatures are now so low, and sinking fast, that it would take near record or record heat to push us back into never-ending summer. While such a spell is always possible, it's unlikely.

Plus, any hot spell will be quickly dispatched by our increasingly vibrant cold fronts from Canada.

Today, for instance, is cloudy and cool. Though there might be some sun in the afternoon, temperatures will stay in the 60s. It'll be comfortably cool tomorrow as well.

As mentioned, Friday could end up feeling summery again, but that relative warmth and humidity will quickly be swept aside by a Friday night cold front. The weekend will be cool. In fact, Saturday night be turn frosty in some northern and central cool spots.

That would be good timing. Astronomical fall, the autumn equinox arrives at 9:54 p.m. Saturday.

By the way, there are some hints that the switch to a fall pattern might be slighly wetter than the too-dry weather we've had all summer in  northern Vermont.

We're in a drought and need the rain. I don't see any blockbuster signs of torrential, soaking rains, but those increasingly frequent cold fronts at least give us periodic chances of wetting.

Friday night's cold front doesn't look super impressive in terms of rainfall, but we have a shot at some. Additionally, a few of those cold fronts over the next couple weeks look like they have a chance - just a chance - of picking up some extra moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, which would make the rain a little heavier.

For what it's worth, NOAA"s Climate Prediction Center indicates slighly better than even chances of somewhat cooler, somewhat wetter than average weather here in Vermont as September closes and October opens.

We'll see how that goes.

Last Slap Of Florence Hits Hard; Fire Tornado Sucks Up Hose, Melts It

One of the damaging tornadoes in Virginia Monday,
part of the remains of Florence

The remains of Hurricane Florence still had quite a punch Monday, unleashing tornadoes on Virginia that killed at least one person.  

Dramatic video at the bottom of this post shows it ripping roofs off buildings and flinging the debris high into the air.

A flooring company warehouse collapsed on workers during the tornado in Chesterfield County, Virginia, killing one employee and injuring another. This brought the overall death toll from Florence so far to 32.

The very last gasp, or what we think is the last gasp, is in southern New England this morning, prompting flash flood warnings in southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts  flood advisories in far southern Vermont, and flood warnings in parts of New York.

The rain avoided parched northern Vermont, and only scattered light showers might fall today as a couple of cold fronts come through. Nothing heavy. but the unseasonably hot, humid weather is ending and we will get into a spell of cool autumn weather, with the exception of a brief warmup Friday.

It has stopped raining in North Carolina, but the flooding on some rivers is only just peaking, and it will take many days for all of them to recede so cleanup can start.

FIRE WHIRL SUCKS UP HOSE

A viral video making the rounds shows a "a fire tornado" during an August 19 wild fire in British Columbia sucking a fire hose up into the air. This video is also at the bottom of this post.

Firefighter M,C. Schidowsky wrote on Instagram: "Fire tornado destroyed our line. It threw burning logs across our guard for 45 minutes and pulled our hose 100 plus feet in the air before melting it. That's definitely a first."

Seems like fire tornadoes are now a thing, give the history with that one in California earlier this year that destroyed homes around Redding, California.

First, here's the tornado video from Virginia, after that will be the fire tornado/hose video.



Here's the fire tornado grabbing the hose:

Wilmington, North Carolina Cut Off By Florence Floods

People lined up outside one of the few open grocery stores in
Wilmington, North Carolina Sunday. Photo from NBC News

There is now no way to get in or out of Wilmington, North Carolina, at least on the roads.

All roads that lead to and from Wilmington, a city with a population of more than 117,000 are covered in flood water from ex-hurricane Florence.

I don't remember the last time a city was so marooned by a disaster. Maybe New Orleans in Hurricane Katrina?  Last year with Hurricane Harvey in Texas?

NBC News reports that few stores and restaurants are open in Wilmington and those that are have only limited supplies of food. On top of that, power is largely out, many of the streets that aren't flooded are a tangled mess of debris, fallen trees and wires. Many buildings have damaged roofs from the 90 mph winds Friday morning and are leaking as more rain falls.

At one supermarket, staff allowed only ten people at a time into the store to maintain order, NBC News said. There was a huge, long line out front. Scuffles broke out at another supermarket.

As you can see in such a big disaster, nerves get extremely frayed after days of dealing with this mess.

At least 17 people have died in the storm so far. Some videos of this storm's effects are at the bottom of this post.

To add to the misery the storm spun off some tornadoes. A television station in Wilmington had to go off the air for awhile as staff took shelter during a tornado warning. When they got back on the air, the roof was leaking.

Many rivers in North and South Carolina are at or near record levels. Even as the rain tapers off, it will take weeks in some cases for the water to recede. This is a long-haul disaster for sure.

Florence, or its remains lingered over the Carolinas all weekend, but it's finally starting to move. It will travel up the Appalachian chain and then head east over or near southern New England.

Flash flood watches are up for this path, although the rain won't be as heavy or nearly as prolonged as it was in North Carolina. Two to four inches of rain are likely in southern New England.

The remains of Florence will likely miss the northern half of Vermont. Southern Vermont will get some downpours.

This is all too bad. Southern Vermont doesn't really need the rain, but northern Vermont does. We can't catch a break, can we?  

On the bright side, the big burst of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic has subsided big time, at least for now.

Tropical Storm Joyce way out in the eastern Atlantic, has been downgraded to a depression and will probably dissipate. It is no threat to land.

Tropical Storm Isaac in the Caribbean dissipated and its remnant cluster of showers and thunderstorms was near Jamaica this morning. There's only a small chance that Isaac will redevelop.

ABC News gives us an aerial view of someo of the widespread flooding:



Interesting perspective from a guy who returned to his house for the first time after fleeing. About 12 to 16 inches of water got into the house. The man said he's lucky because they have a second floor and moved some of their possessions upstairs before the flood hit:



Here, the Coast Guard rescues about a dozen beagles from a flooded pen. They said had they got there just a bit later, the dogs would have drowned.

Florence Floods Worsen; Hong Kong Typhoon, Never Ending Dry Summer Here

Just one example of the destruction from Florence. 

They warned us last week that Hurricane Florence, and its remnants once it came ashore would unleash cataclysmic flooding, and anyone who glances at the news knows this came to pass.

Already, at least 12 deaths have been reported from the storm and flooding. We are only in the middle stages of this disaster, as the rain continues to pour down in North Carolina, parts of South Carolina and some of Virginia.

Many rivers are or will be at record high levels. Some of these rivers won't crest until sometimes next week. There's a lot more destruction to come.

In a tweet, the National Weather Service said late last night, "The worst flooding is yet to come for portions of the Carolinas, the southern/central Appalachians from western NC to west-central VA and eastern WV."

The downpours today have already spread inland to the Blue Ridge mountains in western North Carolina and adjacent Tennessee and Virginia. This raises the prospect of sudden, terrible flash floods and landslides.

There's a lot of concern about people living in deep valleys and hollows in those mountains that could be hit by these mudslides and floods.

This is a big enough disaster to have impacts far from the flood zone.  The cost of many items, from gasoline to pork is expected to go up for all of us. Deliveries, shipments and travel is delayed because so many major roads are under water. This includes what is normally extremely busy Interstate 95 in North Carolina.

A new North Carolina single-storm rainfall record has already been set, with more than 33 inches reported in Swansboro, North Carolina.

The remains of Florence will finally head northeast and out of the Carolinas early this week. It will likely cause some flooding from Pennsylvania to southern New England, but that flooding will be nothing like what's hitting the Carolinas.

TYPHOON MANGKHUT

As if Hurricane Florence and its flooding wasn't bad enough, Typhoon Mangkhut spread lots of death and destruction in the Philippines and Hong Kong. This is just a couple weeks after another typhoon caused widespread destruction in Japan.

Mangkhut is so far the strongest hurricane or typhoon on the planet this year, with gusts of 200 mph. (Hurricanes and typhoons are exactly the same thing as each other, just the names are different. )

About 50 people are confirmed dead in the Philippines, and that toll is very likely to rise. 

Videos from Hong Kong show people being violently blown against buildings, cranes falling off skyscrapers, high rises swaying ominiously in the wind, countless windows blown out of other high rises with stuff from inside these buildings being sucked out by the wind, and airborne debris racing past windows as frightened people watch.

All this with the eye of the typhoon passing roughly 60 miles to the south of Hong Kong.

Some of those incredible videos of this typhoon are at the bottom of this post that you have to watch.

VERMONT HEAT GRINDS ON FOR NOW

Today will be the 80th day this year that Burlington, Vermont has a high temperature of 80 degrees or more. That's close to the record for most days of such weather in one year. There were 86 days of 80 degree heat during 2016.

There will probably be another 80 degree high in Burlington tomorrow, but that's probably it for now.  There might or might not be more 80 degree days later this autumn, but the chances of that happening are falling fast.

Today will feel like midsummer with rather high humidity and temperatures well into the 80s. So much for September cool.

Northern Vermont still needs rain, and of course, the remains of Florence look like they will largely miss that area, so the drought goes on.

At least it will be cooler midweek in the wake of Florence. High temperatures will "only" be in the seasonable 60s.

Here's some of those videos from Hong Kong in Typhoon Mangkhut



This video also graphically illustrates the power of this typhoon:



I don't know what this adult and child were doing out in the typhoon, but it easily blew them away. Luckily, they were rescued:

Videos Show Chaos Continuin In The Carolinas As Florence Unleashes Torrents

A common scene in the Carolinas now as Florence continues to
dump feet of rain on the region.

The winds have largely diminished with what was Hurricane Florence in North and South Carolina ut the expected catastrophic rains are coming down.

Major flooding is reported in wide areas in the eastern halves of these states and it will only get worse today.

So far, seven deaths have been reported with Florence. More than a million people don't have electricity. There have been hundreds of water rescues ane many more will surely happen this weekend.

As of late last night, as much as 23 inches of rain had already fallen and it's still pouring today.

News clips and videos emerging from the hurricane zone are showing widespread destruction. I have a few to show, below. I'm sure even more dramatic flood videos will come out this weekend.

We'll start with this ABC News clip, which captures the wide-ranging chaos:



This Washington Post video of horribly flooded New Bern, North Carolina reminds me of the scene and response to Hurricane Harvey in Texas last year:



In this video, a light is still somehow on in a submerged house being slapped by waves in the North Carolina flood waters:



Early on in the storm, this gas station canopy in Topsail Beach, North Carolina topples in the wind. Then this heavy thing actually blows away! Watch:

Hurricane Florence Is As Catastrophic As Expected, More Destruction Today

The first of numerous storm surges with Hurricane Florence
yesterday in North Carolina. 

Unfortunately, Hurricane Florence is playing out as expected, with devastating storm surges and widespread damage as the storm came ashore this morning.

Landfall was near Wrightsville Beach at around 7:15 a.m. This is very close to where forecasts have thought for days Florence would land.

There's a lot going on with this, and I have a lot of thought about Florence, so this post will seem rather random and scattershot, but I hope informative.

Since the storm is crawling along near the coast, torrential rains will continue through tomorrow at least, so inland flooding will now be the issue. The high winds associated with the hurricane will slowly diminish, but that's little comfort to people in the disaster zone. The fact that Florence is moving right along the coast, adjacent to warm seawater will mean it might take quite awhile for the hurricane to diminish.

SNAPSHOTS OF CHAOS

It sure was chaotic overnight and this morning. Many weather stations are obviously out of service due to flooding and wind. I did notice Wilmington, North Carolina had gusts over 100 mph this morning, with widespread damage reported.  .

Few people remain in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, so reports out of there are still obviously sketchy at best.

Accuweather reports that 70 people that were holed up in a Jacksonville, North Carolina had to be evacuated as high winds threatened to collapse the building. A storm surge slammed into New Bern, North Carolina, which prompted this very scary tweet from city emergency managers:

Waves from Hurricane Florence batter a North Carolina
pier as the storm approached the state Thursday. 

"Currently - 150 awaiting rescue in New Bern. We have 2 out of state FEMA teams here for swift water rescue. More are on the way to help us. WE ARE COMING TO GET YOU. You may need to move up to the second story or to your attic, but WE ARE COMING TO GET YOU."

New Bern had for days been regarded as Ground Zero for some of the worst storm surge flooding. Again, those forecasters were unfortunately accurate.

Among the swift water rescue teams in North Carolina are from the Colchester, Vermont technical rescue team. I obviously wish everybody, rescuers and those to be rescued the best.

Storm surges began Thursday well before the hurricane made it to shore, and continued with last night's high tide cycle and this morning's. More surges will happen over the next day or two as the storm continues to crawl near the coast for the next 24 hours at least.

I've always been among those who wondered why people don't always evacuate when told to ahead of a storm. An opinion piece in Scientific American gave me a new perspective. 

Many people don't have the option to evacuate, even when there's mandatory orders. Says Scientific American:

"It takes money to displace yourself. It takes having somewhere better to go and a way to get there. Having a full tank of gas is a luxury when you live paycheck to paycheck. Spending money up front and then waiting for reimbursement requires that you have the money in the first place, while knowing what expenses are covered and how to file the paperwork, requires knowledge not everyone has or has access to. 

Missing shifts at work is unthinkable when every dollar counts. Some workplaces keep emploees as long as legally possible, more worried about lost profits than lost lives."

Yup, I guess if you are poor you don't deserve to survive a disaster. This situation does not exactly make me proud. We can do better.

"DOWNGRADED?" NOT SO FAST!

 I'm sick and tired of reporters saying the hurricane has been "downgraded" to a weaker storm. I guess part of the problem is the scale hurricanes are judged by is the wind. But there should be a different system that takes into account the severity of storm surges and inland flooding associated with hurricanes.

So called "weak" hurricanes and tropical storms, like Harvey after it came ashore in Texas last year, Irene up here in Vermont seven years ago, Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and now Florence, are incredibly destructive and dangerous due to storm surges and inland flooding. By calling storms "downgraded" we in the media lull people into a false sense of security.

Florence will probably be "downgraded" to a tropical storm, probably Saturday if not even a bit earlier than that.   But potentially the most destructive part of this storm will come after it has "weakened." The torrential rains will spread inland across the Carolinas. Incredible flooding is inevitable through the weekend.

Already, we have one unofficial report of 30 inches of rain in coastal North Carolina. These incredible totals will spread inland, especially in a zone between Wilmington and Charlotte, North Carolina. This is obviously not good.

The slow forward pace of Hurricane Florence and its unusual path has me thinking about whether climate change influenced this storm. Maybe, maybe not. I'll have more on that subject in a later post.

VERMONT IMPACTS?

It seems like every time there's a bad hurricane in the southeastern United States, we in Vermont get a spell of spectacular weather. Yesterday and today are no exception. Skies cleared into a deep blue by Thursday afternoon amid warmer than normal, summerlike air. This state of affairs will continue through the weekend, with only the very slightest chance of a shower north Saturday afternoon.

After trashing the Carolinas this weekend, Florence could bring
Vermont some rain next week

Eventually, after Florence meanders around the Carolinas for a few days, the remnants of it will move north, possibly giving us some rain.

The path and intensity of the rain from Florence in Vermont is unknown, but we certainly won't have anything like the disaster that's unfolding further south.

In a worst case scenario, some flooding might happened in the Green Mountain State, especially in southern sections. Overall, though, we still need more rain. Like the remains of Gordon last week, Florence has the potential to do more good than harm in Vermont.

Rains from Florence, if they arrive, won't come until Monday night at the earliers. The details of the forecast will come into better focus later in the weekend.

Florence: Category 2 Hurricane But Category 5 Flood Threat

Today's satelllite view of Hurricane Florence

As of this morning, the winds in Hurricane Florence aren't quite as ferocious as originally expected, but nobody in the Carolinas or elsewhere should relax over this.

The catastrophic flood threat, always the real story with this hurricane, is just as bad or worse than it's been.

Upper level winds near the Florence have degraded the hurricane a bit, which explains why the winds have dropped to a still-formidable 110 mph. Little change in strength is expected before landfall tomorrow morning.

What Florence has lost in wind strength is has made up for in size. The hurricane is expanded, which means it can still generate very intense coastal storm surge. Strong, damaging winds will cover a wider area, too.

As of this morning, hurricane force winds extended outward some 80 miles from the center of Florence, and tropical storm force wind were as far as 195 miles from the storm center, says the National Hurricane Center.

All this means Hurricane Florence can still generate a storm surge of nine to 13 feet high along parts of the North Carolina coastline. Damaging storm surges are a big threat across the entire coastlines of South and North Carolina and southern Virginia.

The surges will be accompanied by huge, battering waves. An offshore wave that was 80 feet tall was detected with Florence yesterday. That's roughly the height of an eight-story building. As you can see, anyone who has not evacuated from areas under storm surge warnings are extremely foolish.

Before and after pictures after a storm surge from Hurricane Ike wrecked
parts of the Texas coastline on this date in 2008.
Hurricane Florence is a similar storm and might have similar effects. 

Florence reminds me of Hurricane Ike, which hit the Texas coast on this date in 2008. It, too, "weakened" to a Category 2 storm before landfall, but its size expanded very much like Florence has. The result was a terrible storm surge that washed away countless coastal homes and buildings in Texas.

Hurricane Ike killed 21 people in the United States. Some of those were people who ignored evacuation orders and drowned in the storm surge.   The coastline of Texas is flat, like North Carolina's. The Ike storm surge in Texas extended inland as far as 18 miles. 

So you see what we're up against.

Hurricane Florence has always been odd. It took a weird, unprecedented path toward the U.S. East Coast, it strengthened, weakened and strengthened again rapidly, and as it approaches the coast, it is expected to take a slow curve to the southwest, down the North Carolina coast toward South Carolina, then inland.

Meteorologist Marshall Shepherd, writing in Forbes said: "In my 27 years of professional experience, I have never seen some of the projected characteristics or behavior of Hurricane Florence."

The forward pace of Florene will be excruciatingly slow, much slower than most hurricanes, which is why everybody is so worried about the epic rainfall expected with this. If Florence moves slowly, as expected, it has time to dump record amounts of rain, which of course would produce record flooding.

Forecasts continue to call for two to three FEET of rain in southern North Carolina, especially around Wilmington, North Carolina. This downpour should start today, and anyone who lives near a river or any waterway should get out, pronto.

Some of the flooding will be made even worse because storm surges will block water from flowing out of channels and rivers with outlets to the sea. The water will just back up into  more and more neighborhoods.

I've seen it said on social media the Hurricane Florence is a Category 2 storm but a Category 5 flood threat. I certainly buy that.

The outer bands of Hurricane Florence were beginning to affect coastal North Carolina this morning. Conditions will keep going downhill all day today.

ATLANTIC BUSY, IN ADDITION TO FLORENCE

Lots of storms in addition to Florence to watch in the Atlantic

As if forecasters didn't have their hands full enough with Florence, the Atlantic Ocean is about as busy as it can possibly get in terms of tropical storms.

Including Florence, there are four tropical storms or hurricanes spinning out there, and a potential one in the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Helene is weakening as it heads northward in the open Atlantic. It will become a gusty non-tropical storm that could hit Ireland in a few days.

Tropical Storm Isaac is heading into the Caribbean Sea and is remaining weak. It might even fall apart within the next few days. Still, some computer models suggest it might regenerate once it gets further west in a few days, so we'll have to keep an eye on it.

Subtropical Storm Joyce is expected to become a purely tropical storm in the central Atlantic Ocean within a couple days, but it poses no threat to land.

An area of showers and storms in the western Gulf of Mexico will likely hit land before it can develop into a tropical storm. However, it will spread heavy rains into northeastern Mexico and Texas, which raises a flood threat.