Vermont Is The New Florida - Continued

A strong thunderstorm over Lake Champlain last summer, More
potentially strong to severe storms are firing up todau. 

If the headline on this post seems familiar, it's because I wrote a similar headline in this blog thingy back in late June.

The heat and humidity has been pretty consistent since the third week in June. On and on it goes.

As uncomfortable as it is, at least there's some rain chances.  Believe it or not, that rain prospect is in part due to the influence of a possible tropical depression. or storm.  Yes, that sounds like Florida, too.   I'll get to that in a bit.

Burlington got to 89 degrees yesterday, just missing the chance to notch yet another 90 degree day this summer.  Don't worry, it looks like there will be two more days above 90 degrees this week. Um, yay?

Today would reach 90 degrees if not for a disturbance coming through that will touch off a fair numer of showers and storms.  We need the rain, still. Especially in the northwestern part of the state. Of course, the far northwest has the lowest chances of rain with this, though there's still roughly even odds.

It was frustrating here in St. Albans, Vermont early this morning with a couple flashes of lightning and claps of thunder, but the rain with that storm blew by just to my north.

The showers and storms with this incoming disturbance fired up in Quebec pretty early - before noon. They're moving southeast as of early afternoon and other pop ups are forming in New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.

A few storms, especially from the Champlain Valley east, could be strong or locally severe, with strong, gusty winds, hail, torrential downpours and lightning. Lightning detector maps were already showing lots of lightning as of 2 p.m. All of Vermont, New Hampshire and most of Maine is under a severe thunderstorm watch until 10 p.m.

Storms should wind down this evening

ON WITH THE HEAT

The core of the latest burst of heat will be over us Thursday and Friday. Heat advisories are up in the Champlain Valley for Thursday and Friday.  And in many places around the Great Lakes and Northeast, too.

Highs will get into the 90s for most of us both days.  Humidity will be even higher than it was during that horrible June heat wave.

An interesting thing might happen with the heat Friday, and may worsen it.  A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form off the South Carolina coast soon and move northward.

It'll never get that strong, but as it approaches coastal New England Friday, it will pump up the hot ridge of high pressure over northern New England, northern New York and Quebec. That, in turn,  has the potential for boosting temperatures even higher. It's not definite, but it's possible we'll see highs in the mid to upper 90s in some of the hotter spots Friday.

It depends on clouds and the path of that tropical or subtropical system.

WAIT, TROPICAL STORM?

Yes, I did say tropical storm.  If wannabe Tropical Storm Fay develops, it would most likely track toward southeastern New England, or offshore.

It would bring a slug of torrential rains to southern and eastern New England, and perhaps some gusty winds. Wannabe Fay will probably go to far east to directly affect most of Vermont.

However, it will bring added tropical moisture into Vermont, just as another disturbance approaches for the west.

At this point, it appears this situation will give us a terribly oppressive weekend with sky high humidity. But this scenario could also give us numerous showers and storms Saturday afternoon and evening, and maybe into Sunday.

The good news is if this pans out, we'll get some beneficial rains.  A bit of potential bad news is some slow moving storms this weekend could cause some local flash floods. We certainly don't know that for sure yet, but it's something to keep an eye on.

THEN DO WE GET RID OF THE HEAT?

The answer is no.  But you kind of knew that, right?

We do get a temporary reprieve.  That disturbance which could give us the rains over the weekend will probably "cool" us off to readings early next week that are only a little warmer than average. It will still be a little uncomfortable because the humidity won't totally crash. But it will definitely be better.

Not for long, it looks like. Early indications are another burst of high heat and humidity could surge into northern New England during the second half of next week.

Sigh.

Transition Out Of Heat Brings Vermont/Northeast Severe Risk Today

This image from the National Weather Service in South Burlington
shows much of Vermont and New York under a slight risk
of severe storms today (areas in yellow).

Today will be the last day of the unseasonable, record breaking  heat and humid that has enveloped northern New England and southern Quebec.

The price for this transition will be the risk of severe thunderstorms.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a large chunk of the interior Northeast away from the coast under a slight risk of severe weather. This includes all of Vermont except basically the Connecticut River Valley, which is under a marginal risk.  

A slight risk for severe storms is level two out of five on the alert scale for dangerous weather. A slight risk means that scattered severe storms are possible, but they would generally be not terribly long lived. An isolated intense storm could develop, too.

I'm thinking it's possible part of the slight risk zone could go up a step to number three on the alert level, which is "enhanced" risk.  That would mean a somewhat more widespread outbreak.  I would emphasize this idea of an upgrade to level three enhanced is JUST speculation on my part and NOT part an official National Weather Service forecast.

One thing that would help big storms get going is if sunshine  between now and early this afternoon helps destabilize the atmosphere. Satellite images early this morning showed a fair number of breaks in the clouds over Vermont and upstream in New York.

The main risks with today's severe weather threat in Vermont and much of the rest of the Northeastsare strong straight line winds and downbursts.  These could be enough to cause local damage to trees, power lines and maybe even structures.  Most of us won't see anything that bad, but a lot of us will hear thunder, see lightning and probably get a gusty downpour or at least a shower our of it.

There is even a remote chance of a brief spinup tornado once again from around Montreal south through the Champlain Valley and on down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians all the way to North Carolina.

There is some spin - changing wind direction with height - that could create some rotating thunderstorms. Remember, though: Just because a thunderstorm is spinning doesn't always mean it will produce a tornado. It's something to watch today, just in case.  Don't count on a tornado, though. It's a very, very low chance.

Another thing to consider today is the risk of so-called training thunderstorms. That's when a line of thunderstorms, like boxcars on a train track, go over the same spot over and over again. These storms can cause torrential rains and flash flooding.

The risk of this happening today is fairly low, because it's been so dry lately.  It would take a helluva lot of rain to set off a flash flood. It's still one more thing to keep an eye on, though.

There will probably be several rounds of showers and storms this afternoon and tonight affecting different parts of the state at different times.  Storms will probably start to ramp up in New York State by early afternoon and spread eastward into Vermont.

Everybody will get rain, but there will be winners and losers. Some places will get a nice, needed soaking and a few places will get a pathetic light showering. It's a crap shoot that's impossible to predict in advance. I'm rooting for a nice drenching here in dusty St. Albans, Vermont.

All this will leave us with cooler and drier weather on Saturday. A second cold front will pass through Saturday evening. It will turn quite chilly for the opening days of June, as has been advertised for days now.

A few places might not get past 60 degrees for highs Sunday and Monday, which is a far cry from the 90s earlier this week.  Also, if there are clear skies on any of these nights, a few colder spots would be at a risk of frost.  Most of us will be fine, though.

Watch Out For Those Extremely Scummy Disaster Scammers!

Be very cautious when going on Instagram and viewing appeals
to help disaster zones like Australia. There's lots of scams out there. 

Lots and lots of people want to help the people, animals and the entire nation and continent of Australia these days.

Who can blame them? Those extreme bushfires over the past few months have been absolutely tragic. There's big loss of life for people - 28 at last count.

So many Australians homes and livlihoods have been destroyed. So many Australian animals need our help. And the fire season
is far from over, despite recent rains that have thankfully doused some of the blazes.

So yes, give, give, give to Australia!

However, some of the scummiest human beings in the world are on social media, claiming they want to help and are more than willing to take your money toward that aim. But their real aim is to just enrich themselves with your heartfelt but naive donation. To them, the hell with Australia, that wild fire is a great opportunity to make themselves some big cash.

Even better for the scammers, there always seems to be new disasters elsewhere in the world to exploit. It's a constant money making machine to them.

Social media giants like Instagram are willing to help with this scam, because it makes money for them, too.

As HuffPost tells us:

"Popular Instagram profiles are exploiting the crisis for personal gain, making empty promises to plant trees or donate money in exchange for traffic with posts such as "1 LIKE = $1 DONATION."  Some falsely claim to be affiliated with legitimate aid organizations. Others have promoted personal PayPal accounts, urging their tens or hundreds of thousands of followers to donate to them directly while vowing to give those funds to charity later on."

Here's some examples provided by Huff Post:

Instagram accounts @thewildfund and @australiasafety, each have well over 50,000 followers. Both of them said they would donate $1 per like to their "partner," National Geographic. For every follow, each of these said they would give $5.

The accounts got more than a million "likes" and a surge of new followers. That translates into big income on Instagram, but there's no evidence money went to Australians who needed it. Both of the above Instagram pages HuffPost contacted were removed right after that contact, which all but proves they were scams.

Here's more from HuffPost:

"@australiasafety also claimed that it had already given away $450,000, linking to a nonexistent website, australiasafety.org. Neither of the account owners responded to requests for comment."

Of course they didn't.

Facebook owns Instagram, and Facebook really doesn't give a crap if these scams flourish on their social media platforms.  Facebook and Instagram policy is to not run scams on their platforms, but very often, these scam sites aren't taken down unless they generate an outcry or bad publicity.'

Even when they are  taken down, the scammers reappear instantly with new scams.

On the bright side there are other Instagramers who are fighting back against the scammers.   According to Slate, there is an Instagram account called @exposinginstascams, which it calls one of the most diligent bullshit detectors.

Apparently, @exposinginstascams is run by a 15-year-old named Nico from the San Diego area. He's the one who contacted National Geographic (see above) and blew up the scam by making National Geographic aware of it.

Nico told Slate:

"Instagram can be super profitable when it comes to ads and selling accounts....People use emotional tactics to get people to follow them, then they can easily make a big buck off of this exploitation of global issues."

On one other small bright side, Nico has investigated other Instagram accounts that claimed to be raising money for Australia and found them to be on the up and up. He posts links to those accounts. For instance, one Instagram account pledged $1 for every person who shared that Instagram post. About 5,000 people did so, and that Instagram account legitimately sent $5,000 to Australian bush fire relief.

Unfortunately, these truly charitable Instagram accounts appear to be the exception rather than the rule. As Slate writer Jane C. Hu notes:

"....when there's a major disaster in the news, the scam machine runs into overdrive. New accounts (or old ones, repurposed for whatever new disaster has occurred) pop up, and reporting them to Instagram is like whack-a-mole; in spending just two minutes scrolling through posts with the hashtag #prayforaustralia, I found at least three more sketchy-looking accounts claiming to donate up to $10 per 'like.' 

 A rash of fake donation accounts also followed the Amazon wildfire disaster and the Sudan crisis, and I asked Nico why these scams take off. 'People want to help, but they want someone else to do it for them,' he says. 'They want to feel like they are contributing to the world.'"

So how is a poor, compassionate person who wants to help Australia make sure they're not being scammed.

Take Nico's advice. Don't let someone else do it for you.  Or at least investigate to exactly to whom you want to contribute.

I'd avoid Instagram, Facebook and other social media platforms when considering giving to any charity.  Look into a charity independently of any social media, and make sure it's well established and has a good reputation.

Avoid the middlemen. Some people who say they will give your money to a major charity are scammers. Others are not, but are so inexperienced in this arena that they mess up, and the money doesn't go to the intended target.

If you insist on donating via Instagram or other social media advertiser, you can tap the menu and select "About This Account," advises CBS News. 

At that point, you can at least figure out when that account joined Instagram, in which country it originates, accounts with shared followers, and you can see all the ads the business is running.  That's a start, at least.

Just so you'd know what you're up against, though, consider this experience the HuffPost had when reporting their story. They contacted one Instagrammer regarding their lie about donating $25,000 to the Red Cross.

The Instagram account holder had two demands: That HuffPost give a shout out to his page in its article, and they wanted to be paid for the interview.

Yeah, pretty lame.

Forecast Worsens In NW Vermont; Lots Of Damage In South, Midwest

Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see. The Saturday
morning update to expected ice accumulations.Expect some
ice damage in areas shaded in red. Purple areas can expect
a lot of damage and power outages. 

Northern New York and northwestern Vermont are screwed.

These areas now appear all set to receive a damaging ice storm.   By Sunday morning, a lot of homes and businesses will be without power, and a lot of trees and branches will be on the ground in what will likely be the worst ice storm since 1998.  

As of this morning, the National Weather Service in South Burlington had extended the ice storm warnings that were already in effect for northern New York eastward to encompass Grand Isle county and the western half of Franklin County in Vermont.

In northern New York, ice accumulations are expected to be over an inch in spots. That's more than enough to cause severe damage to trees and power lines. In the ice storm warning zone in Vermont, ice is forecast to be a half to three quarters of an inch thick by Sunday morning.  That's also more than enough to cause a lot of damage.

(As noted yesterday, the criteria for an ice storm warning is if a half inch or more of ice from freezing rain is likely to accumulate. If less than a half inch of freezing rain ice will accumulate, the National Weather Service will go with a winter weather advisory.)

The only real reason this won't be as bad as 1998 is because the freezing rain won't last as long. Instead of a three day affair, the freezing rain will all come within a 12 hour period, give or take, tonight and tomorrow morning.

VERY WET AIR

What this storm has in common with 1998 is the extreme availability of moisture for this time of year.

One common way meteorologist use to determine how much moisture is available for a storm is something called Precipitable Water, or PW.  The measurement doesn't necessarily tell you how much precipitation is going to fall, but it goes like this: If there is one inch of PW, then if all the moisture above that location condenses out, they'd get one inch of rain. You never get all of the moisture condensing out of the atmosphere, but PW is still a good guide for expected rainfall.

Precipitable Water in the atmosphere over northern New York and much of northern Vermont will be at or near record highs for January tonight.  That means rain or freezing rain will come down hard, extremely hard for January.

Total rain or melted ice in northern New York with this storm is expected to be around two to three inches. In northern Vermont, slightly less will fall, with totals expected by NWS South Burlington to be in the one to two inch range.

For comparison, total precipitation for the entire month of January is usually between two and 2.5 inches of rain.

FORECAST STILL TRICKY

As we've been describing, this storm is bringing wet and record warm air up the East Coast.  Places from central New England on down through the Middle Atlantic States and maybe points south will have a lot of record highs today and Sunday.  It could get as high as 80 degrees in West Virginia and the upper 60s in southeastern New England.

Meanwhile, just as the heaviest rain is expected to move into northern New York and Vermont that shallow cold front will come down from Quebec.  Warm air will still roar northward above this cold front, so the precipitation will come down as rain and freeze on contact down on the North Country.

Cold air is more dense than warm air and tends to sink toward valley floors, so this cold air will creep southward more easily where it isn't blocked by mountains. That means it will get cold tonight in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys pretty easily

In Vermont, the cold air has got an open shot to get down as far as Rutland, but it remains to be seen how far the chilly air does get.  There will be a sharp temperature contrast in Vermont, with 20 degree temperature differences late tonight and early Sunday with miles of each other.

Sunday morning, it will probably be in the 20s in far northwestern Vermont and near 60 in the southeast corner.

The varying temperatures so close to each other means its hard to determine who will get ice and how much when you get south and east of Franklin County, Vermont.

Burlington is a wild card. It's the most populated area of the state. It's hard to say if there will be enough ice there to cause a fair amount of damage or will the ice be not that bad? It's almost imposssible to tell.

A weather front will sweep west to east across the region Sunday morning and afternoon, mercifully ending the freezing rain as a brief period of snow, with little accumulation.  Gusty winds with and behind the front will probably cause more damage and power outages and ice-laden trees in the north sway and possibly collapse in the breeze

FLOODING WORRIES

Expected precipitation (rain and melted ice) for the upcoming storm
Areas in yellow and orange can expect to at least 1.5 inches of
precipitation, which is an awfully lot for January. 

Notice I mentioned the precipitable water, above. Areas in northern and central New York and northern and central Vermont that don't get a lot of ice will get a lot of rain.

 Flood watches are still up for all of Vermont except near the Canadian border, and the far southern two counties, where it won't rain nearly as hard as further north.

Very mild air today across all of Vermont and tonight in all but northern Vermont will quickly melt what snow we have out there. All this rain will add the runoff with the melting snow will set probably set up some floooding.  

The first problem will be small streams and creeks tonight, which could wash out parts of roads, driveways and culverts.

The water will then flow in to more major rivers. As it stands now,  forecasts call for moderate flooding on parts of the Winooski and Mad Rivers and Otter Creek, with minor flooding elsewhere.

You've heard the terms minor and moderate flooding bandied about, and here's what they mean:

Minor flooding means few, if any buildings will get flooded, and just some roads, fields, parklands and flood plains will go under water.

Moderate flooding means some buildings might start to flood, roads will be closed by flooding and a few spots might have to be evacuated.

SAFETY:

I'll re-up some tips I put out yesterday here in this space:

1. Today is the day to buy batteries, bottled water and other supplies you'll need to get through power outages that could easily last hours, and perhaps a few days in some spots, especially in northern New York. Remember, especially if you have well water, the pump for the water won't work without electricity.

2. Charge your devices today and this evening, too, so they'll have a full charge in case you need them tomorrow. Remember, Vermont's spotty cell service might be even spottier in areas that get freezing rain, as power outages can affect things, too.

3.  Grab some cash from your bank or ATM, and fill up the car's gas tank. If there's power failures, gas pumps won't work, and stores won't be able to process debit or credit card purchases.

4. If you have a generator, please, please make sure the exhaust is at least 15 feet from the house if posssible and pointed away from the house. You don't want to die of carbon monoxide poisoning.

5.  This should go without saying, but stay away from fallen wires, even if they don't seem like they have electricity flowing through them. Stay out from under ice-laden trees, too. You never know if or when they'll collapse.

6. Check on the elderly and ill, and make sure they're warm enough. If not, and if possible, bring them to someplace that IS warm.

7.  This should be another "Duh!" tip, but don't drive through flooded roads.  It doesn't take much water to sweep a car away.  An additional hazard is the water this time of year is cold, making your chances of dying of drowning and/or hyperthermia greater and quicker.

8.  When this is over and you need to drive somewhere get all the ice off all of your car or truck. Ice flying off your vehicle on the highway can hit the car behind you, breaking their windshield or causing them to lose control and create a crash.  Store your vehicle in a garage if you can. If not, and to make things easier, cover as much of your vehicle with a tarp as you can and secure the tarp down so it doesn't blow away.

After the freezing rain ends, carefully remove the tarp and your vehicle should largely be ice-free.

DANGEROUS NATIONAL WEATHER

As expected, there's widespread damage from severe thunderstorms and some tornadoes in the South, a lot of flooding in other spots, and a bunch of freezing rain and ice damage in the Midwest.

So far, there have been reports of three deaths in Lousiana due to either tornadoes or severe storms.

In Logan, Arkansas, a tornado destroyed a house but the family who lived there was not hurt because they were in a storm shelter, the National Weather Service reported. Damage from the severe thunderstorms was reported from Texas to Tennessee.

Severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes were ongoing early this morning from Kentucky to the Gulf Coast.

Alabama and parts of Mississippi and Georgia are under the gun today for severe storms and possible tornadoes.

A huge area encompassing much of Missouri and Illinois and substantial chunks of adjacent Arkansas and Oklahoma were under flood warnings this morning.

The ice storm that will affect northern Vermont tonight and tomorrow has already brought widespread  icing from Oklahoma to the Great Lakes.

Quick Friday Evening Vermont Storm Update

The latest ice forecast map from the National Weather Service in
South Burlington, issued this afternoon. An inch of very damaging
ice is likely in northern New York. In northern Vermont, ice could
get to near a half inch, especially in the far northern Champlain Valley.
This would definitely lead to some damage just not as bad as NY.

As always with big storms, there are a few adjustments and updates to the forecast for our upcoming nasty storm.

The ice looks like it'll be at its worst in far northern New York, where an ice storm warning is now in effect from Saturday evening through early Sunday afternoon.

There, the rain is likely to come down harder than in Vermont, and the subfreezing temperatures might also last a bit longer in that area. Ice accumulation in the ice storm warning area should come out to be about an inch thick.

That's enough to cause really bad damage to trees and power lines.  Long lasting power outages are likely in this area. Southern Quebec and parts of Ontario are in for the same thing, so it will be totally awful there, too.

In northern Vermont, there's a slightly less dire but still serious ice forecast. Closest to the Canadian border, in northern Grand Isle and Franklin counties, ice is now expected to thicken up to between a quarter to a half inch of ice.

That much  ice would still bring down a lot of trees and power lines and cause pretty widespread outages. But on the bright side, it won't be as bad as 1998, and, if the forecast comes true, the tree damage won't be super devastating, just kinda bad.  It probably won't look like the wholesale disaster zone the way the trees did in 1998.  Be prepared for a lot of yard cleanup with this is over, though.

Click on this map and the ice storm map above to make them bigger
and easier to read. More than 2.5 inches of rain and freezing rain
is likely in northwestern New York, which is an incredible amount
for January. Northern Vermont is getting more than
 an inch of precip, which is still a lot for this time of year. 

In Chittenden, Orleans and Essex counties, there's going to be ice accumulation later Saturday night and Sunday morning, but damage should be relatively light, again, if the forecast comes true.

If it turns a little colder than expected or rain is a little heavier than expected, the ice storm effects could be worse than I'm envisioning here.

Needless to say, road conditions wherever there is freezing rain will be atrocious.

Pretty much all of the forecasted icy areas in Vermont are under a winter weather advisory. But I'm going to advise a little extra on this advisory.

Most winter weather advisories in Vermont tend to be taken by the public as no big deal. Just kind of nuisance winter weather. This storm will go beyond nuisance and be a real problem.

The only main reason I can see that there's not a more dire ice storm warning in Vermont is because the criteria for an ice storm warning is that most of the area affected will have at least a half an inch of ice or more.  It doesn't look like northern Vermont will quite reach that criteria, although a few spots, especially the far northern Champlain Valley will probably see around a half of ice or a little more.

Flooding is still a good bet, too.  Forecasts call for minor to as much as moderate flooding along parts of the Winooski and Mad rivers and the Otter Creek.  This won't be as bad as the Halloween storm of 2019, but of course you would be stupid to drive into any flooded road.

Flood watches are up for the northern two thirds of Vermont, except right along the Canadian border where the already mentioned ice will build up.

As you well know, all this is subject to change as more data comes in. I'll update again Saturday morning, and again as needed as the storm progresses.

REST OF THE NATION:

As expected, severe thunderstorms and probably some tornadoes have been bubbling up, mostly in Oklahoma and Texas.  These will continue to expand and intensify overnight.  Tornadoes and very severe thunderstorms are especially dangerous at night. You don't see them coming and people are sleeping and don't get warnings.

An expansive area of freezing rain was beginning to blossom from western Oklahoma all the way up toward the Great Lakes.  If anything, some of that ice storm could be worse than what we're getting

Also, flood watches remain up for a huge area of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and of course, part of our region.

New Year's Eve Road Alert, And New England's Weirdest Winter Storm

National Weather Service map from Monday afternoon shows a bizarre
combinayion of a ice storm warnings (in purple) and a severe thunderstorm
warning (in orange).  Usually these two warnings are in different
seasons, not together on the same day/

Hi, I'm back after a one day hiatus in which I was traveling from the blizzardy snows of South Dakota toward the very weird storminess over New England on Monday.

And what a strange storm it was!  I don't see anything the record books in which a nasty winter storm of snow, freezing rain, sleet and wind combined simultaneously with severe thunderstorms with damaging hail.

That was the situation in New England yesterday, folks!  There's a couple videos at the bottom of this post.

I'll get into more of that in a minute, but first, we're not even quite done with the storm yet.

This thing was a sprawling mess which kept sprouting new centers and new bouts of rough weather from California to Maine.

The last of these storms is near Downeast Maine, and is dumping heavy snow on the northern and western parts of that state.

It's a remnant piece of a previous part of this storm that we Vermonters have to worry about today and tonight.  In case you haven't noticed, it's pretty mild out there this New Year's Eve.

In many, but not all Vermont valley locations, yesterday's ice is melting off the trees. That's a good thing, as you don't want to have the branches weighed down by the ice and risk more tree and power line damage.

One reason it's mild out is there is a cold front of sorts attached to that remnant piece of the storm near the eastern Great Lakes.

This sort of cold front has a lot of energy with it.  There was even more lightning to report this morning in Ohio.  This front will generate some heavy snow showers as it approaches tonight.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says the timing suggests that the heavier snow showers will come through northern New York between 4 and 8 p.m. today. They'll get into the Champlain Valley between about 7 and 10 p.m. and into the eastern half of Vermont between 9 p.m. and midnight.

This obviously means trouble for people out partying for New Year's Eve. A quick one to three inches of snow, combined with some wind, will sharply reduce the visibility on the roads, and get them slippery fast.

Probably more important is the temperature. When temperatures are near the freezing mark in this snow squally situation, it's a lot worse on the roads than if readings were far below 32 degrees. In very cold weather, a lot of the snow just blows off the roads. It does compact into some ice, but it's not too, too bad when it's super cold.

However, when the temperature is warmish, like today and this evening, water on the road freezes as the temperatures fall during the onset of the snow.  The snow will be relatively wet. Wet snow compacts into thick layers of slippery ice beneath car tires. There will still be a little water on top of all this mess, which makes things even more slick.

Arrived home from a trip to find the trees in my St. Albans, Vermont\
yard were mercifully not too weighed down by ice from Monday's storm.

Combine this with drunk drivers on New Year's Eve and you have a real mess on your hand. I get it that I'm being a New Year's Eve Debbie Downer with this news. But it's all in an effort to help you plan ahead.  

Or stay home. That's what me and my husband Jeff do every New Year's Eve.  Tonight is amateur hour. It's more fun to sip Champagne at home.

In any event, this snow tonight is good news for the ski areas. It'll be kinda powdery up there. Groomers can mix this in with the slop from yesterday, leaving the slopes in pretty good shape for welcoming 2020 with some skiing and riding

MONDAY'S WEIRDNESS

Monday wasn't the first time there's been lightning and thunder during a New England ice storm.  But these were definitely the strongest storms I and anyone else has seen with an ice storm.   For those of you in northern and central Vermont who wonder what I'm talking about, the thundersleet storms passed well south of you.

A New England ice storm is often a recipe for some thunder.  Usually, an ice storm features a very strong punch of very warm air from the south coming into New England several thousand feet overhead.

Meanwhile, low level cold air drains in from Quebec. Rain from the overhead warm air freezes on the way down to form sleet, or freezes on contact with the ground to accumulate some dangerous ice. This is exactly the situation New England faced on Monday.

This warm air above can be quite unstable and create elevated thunderstorms that form above the temperature inversion that is keeping the cold air locked in at the surface. For instance, there were thunderstorms in Vermont during the Great Ice Storm of 1998.

On Monday, the storms turned out to be quite strong, and formed into a system we normally and often see during severe thunderstorm outbreaks in the summer.

One thunderstorm formed ahead of the main line of storms and went through western and central Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut.  This storm very much resembled a supercell thunderstorms, the kind that can produce large hail and even tornadoes.

Supercells usually form ahead of the main band of storms that form along a squall line or ahead of a cold front. That's how Monday's initial storm behaved. It probably was technically a supercell, since it was rotating and had a radar presentation that resembled a supercell.

Because the storm was elevated above the cold layer near the surface, it would have never been able to spin down a tornado toward the ground. (The rotation with this storm was insufficient to produce a tornado even if that low level cold air wasn't around.)

However, supercells and that type of storm that formed Monday in central New England can produce large hail and this one certainly did. Rising and falling air currents in the storm grabbed raindrops and sleet pellets and formed large hail stones.

Some of the hail stones were an inch or more in diameter, as big or bigger than quarters and enough to dent vehicles. Certainly, these were the biggest hailstones on record for December in New England.

The main line of thunderstorms came through later, dumping more hail, and triggering more lightning and thunder across much of southern and central New England. Some of storms extended into southern Vermont.

On top of all this, the freezing rain was bringing down trees and power lines in the Adirondacks, southern Vermont and New Hampshire and much of Massachusetts.

Most, but not all of the power is back on in New England and New York as of early this afternoon.

Videos:

Security cameras caught the noisy thundersleet and large hail in Westfield, Massachusettts. And also the reaction from a stunned occupant of the building:



The freezing rain affected Ontario, Canada, too, as this enthusiastic motorist tells and shows us:

Tornado Risk Today And Coming Week In South; Flood Concerns Here In Vermont

Tornadoes, some possibly strong, are expectd in the South today,
especially in the red-colored area. The threat spreads east and north
on Sunday.

As advertised, today looks like a dangerous day in parts of the South, especially in Louisiana and adjacent parts of Mississippi, southern Arkansas and eastern Texas.

Here in Vermont, spring appears to have finally sprung, but that brings some flood risks. I'll get to that after we deal with the bigger weather news of the day.

The focus today is on the Gulf Coast. As of now, the table looks set for a tornado outbreak in this region. Some of the tornadoes look like they will be strong and stay on the ground for long periods of time.

It's always possible that there could be pleasant surprise and the atmosphere might not line up perfectly for severe storms and tornadoes. But most forecasters are pessimistic.

Already, early this morning, an intial band of thunderstorms, some severe, were heading north through northern Louisiana. Once they clear out, that will set the stage for even worse storms later today.

A tornado watch was already up early today in southwestern Texas. At least one supercell thunderstorm was already roaming that region before dawn, which gives you an idea how much potential there is for trouble.

The energy helping to produce those storms is heading northeast.  Most of the ingredients for a lot of tornadoes are setting up in Louisiana. The air is unstable. The sun will heat the atmosphere and worsen that instability.

Strong winds will blow overhead, and those winds will change direction with height. Let's just hope the bigger tornadoes that do develop stay out in open country and not through any bigger towns.

Tomorrow, the risk of severe weather and tornadoes moves east and expands to a broad area mostly along the Appalachians from Pennsylvania to Florida. High winds, hail and tornadoes are all possible in this area, especially in parts of the Ohio Valley and the Southeast.

The bottom line is that a large chunk of the southern United States better have their weather radios close at hand, and have a plan to get to a safe spot if a tornado warning is issued.

Normally the rule is, if there's a tornado watch, that means twisters are possible, and you should continue your routine but keep a sharp ear out for any warnings. A tornado warning means a twister has been spotted or indicated on radar, and you'd better get to a safe shelter, pronto.

With the risk of larger tornadoes this weekend, I'd advise people who live in less-sturdy mobile homes or manufactured homes, especially those that aren't tied down correctly, to take an even more cautious plan.

People who live in this type of house ought to play it safe and leave even if there's "just" a tornado watch. Just hang out at a friend's house, a friend who lives in a home with a very good storm shelter or secure basement.

The risk of severe storms and tornadoes will continue much of this week. After a lull on Monday and possibly Tuesday, another strong storm system looks poised to spin up more tornadoes across the South and middle of the nation Wednesday and Thursdays.

The parent storms that are spinning up these tornadoes will affect us here in Vermont. Not with tornadoes, which is a good thing, but with possible flooding. Details follow:

VERMONT RAIN

This motorist was tempted to take his
chances crossing a flooded stretch of
road during spring flooding in April, 2015
near Enosburg. He saw me filming and
decided he didn't want to be part of an
embarrassing YouTube video. He
wisely decided to turn around
rather than proceed.

It was gloriously the first truly spring morning outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont when I took the dogs out early this morning.

Temperatures were in the 50s, birds were singing like crazy and there was that delicious organic aroma in the air of springtime mud and new growth.  Tiny daffodil shoots shot up a couple inches more overnight.

A cold front was also making its way through Vermont, but since it's not a strong front, and we're starting off so warm, today will be the mildest day so far this year.

While highs in the 60s to a few 70s in the southern Champlin Valley and lower Connecticut River valley are not unusual for mid-April, they sure are welcome.

This warmth is now eroding and melting the deep snow pack still in the mountains. Next up, the storm that will produce the weekend tornadoes in the South is heading in our direction.

Rain will break out Sunday afternoon and continue well into Monday.  Rivers will be rising a bit even before it starts raining because of today's warmth. Add an inch or so of rain with the upcoming storm and more melting snow, and you'll have some flooding problems.

Which is why the National Weather Service has issued flood watches for Vermont and adjacent New York from Sunday night into Tuesday. 

I'll let the National Weather Service in South Burlington do the talking for a bit here. According to their hydrology discussion this morning:

"Some of the more susceptible basins include the Ausable, Missisquo, Passumpsic, Otter Creek, Winooski, Lamoille and possibly the Mad River. Sharp river rises are likely beginning Monday. Most main stem rivers are expected to crest during the day Monday based on current indications. Any mountain streams or small rivers will be very susceptible as well, especially Sunday night into Monday."

In other words, this is going to be a statewide problem.  In a few spots, the flooding might be had enough to force evacuations. We'll see. If told by emergency managers to get out because of flooding, absolutely do so!

One of the biggest and most persistent risks in flooding are those people who insist on trying to drive over flooded roads. Don't. Especially don't be one of those morons that drive around barriers put up because of the flooding.  This type of idiot then gets stuck, putting themselves and their rescuers at risk.

By the way, this time of year, flood waters are obviously very cold. If you get stuck in the water, hypothermia sets in wicked fast.

The next storm late in the week, the one that will bring that second round of tornadoes to the South Wednesday and Thursday, also looks like it will come toward New England. It's too soon to say how  that will affect things, but there's the risk of some more moderate to heavy rains with that one. If it does rain hard with the second storm, there could be a renewed flood threat.

Worry Grows Over Possible New Tornado Outbreak Today

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, this area
is at risk of tornadoes today. The yellow area is most
at risk for the twisters, and some of them might be strong.
The percentages are the chance of a tornado hitting
within a 25 mile radius of any given point in that area.

The start of the nation's tornado season has already been too tragic, with the 23 deaths from twisters i Alabama last Sunday.

Today is another potentially dangerous day, with a risk of tornadoes, again some possibly strong in the lower Mississippi Valley.

Before dawn, severe thunderstorms had already fired up from southwestern Missouri to northern Texas. Some storms with large hail were bombarding the Dallas-Fort Worth area early this morning.

As these storms move east, they'll only grow. Or, new rotating supercell thunderstorms will form, and those are the ones that could turn dangerous by this afternoon.

Based on data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center,  the area under the greatest risk for tornadoes, again some potentially strong, goes from extreme southern Illinois and extreme southeastern Missouri, down through the western parts of Kentucky and Tennessee and into northern Mississippi.

The risk of strong tornadoes is what's got everybody worried. Most tornadoes are relatively weak in the grand scheme of things. Tornado ratings are under something called the Enhanced Fujita, or EF scale. Most tornadoes are EFO, wth 65 to 85 mph winds, or EF1, with winds of 86 to 110 mph and EF2, with winds of up to 135 mph.

These types of tornadoes can cause a lot of damage, are dangerous and sometimes deadly. But most people who hide in windowless interior rooms like closets, or basements survive these storms.

With stronger tornadoes, even if people are warned they're coming, there's sometimes nowhere to go. In the Alabama tornadoes last week, many of the deaths were in mobile homes or standard wood frame homes. The tornado that caused all the deaths last week in Lee County, Alabama was an EF4, with winds of 166 to 200 mph.

As we saw in Alabama, tornadoes of that strength rip houses to shreds, with nothing but widely scattered debris left behind. How do you survive that?

It's impossible to say as of this morning whether any strong tornadoes actually form, but people in the higher risk zone had better pay very close attention to the weather today.

Tornado watches will likely first be issued. Tornado watches mean conditions are favorable for twisters, but they haven't necessarily formed yet. In the riskiest zones, I'd advise people to leave their mobile homes if a tornado watch is issued and find a more substantial building, just in case a tornado actually forms.

Better safe than sorry.

This is the deadly EF4 tornado last Sunday that killed 23 people
in Alabama. Like many big tornadoes in the South and East,
this one lacked the classic funnel shaped and to an untrained
eye might not have even looked  a tornado, but
just an angry mass of clouds. 

Anyone who gets a tornado warning should seek shelter right away. If a warning is issued, they shouldn't go outside or look through windows to see if the tornado is coming.

Especially in the southern and eastern United States, tornadoes are often embedded in downpours, so you can't see them coming. Plus there's a lot of trees and hills in the east, blocking views of approaching tornadoes.

Like many strong tornadoes, the big deadly tornado in Alabama last Sunday didn't have the classic funnel shape that we associate with such storms. Instead, it looked like just a mass of angry dark clouds as it approached. It wasn't clear to the untrained eye that it was actually an EF4 tornado. The same situation could happen today.

Yes, I'm hyperventilating a little here, as for all we know this outbreak of storms could mercifully turn out to be a dud. But it also might not, so this bears watching.

OTHER BAD WEATHER

As is often the case with tornadoes this time of year, the same storm system that is launching today's possible tornadoes is dumping heavy snow far to the north. This state of affairs certainly isn't as dangerous as a twister, but people should heed alerts and warnings in the snow zone.

A wide area from southeastern Montana to Wisconsin is under a winter storm warning for more than six inches of snow. This area has seen a lot of snow in the past six weeks and doesn't need more. Travel is not recommended in these areas.

Here in the Northeast, the storm's warm front will create a burst of snow and some mixed precipitation in much of New England. A winter weather advisory is up for southwestern New England because of this.

Here in Vermont, expect that burst of snow to come through during the morning, depositing a dusting to two inches of snow in most of the state, with two to four inches in many mountain areas and northeastern Vermont.

Winds will increase, too, gusting to 45 mph or so, especially in the Champlain Valley and the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

Especially west of the Green Mountains, temperatures will rise above freezing Sunday afternoon, leaving us with occasional light rain or showers.  Which means much of whatever falls will melt. The showers might stay as snow or sleet east of the Greens.

More snow showers will continue Sunday night through Monday night. Some rain will be mixed in through the valleys, but some high elevations could pick up a few to several inches of snow out of this.

Forecasters are hinting at the first strong warmup of the spring late next week. Highs in the 50s anyone? That's surely possible with this temporary pattern change.

Winter Storm Will Wind Down Today; Vermont Avalanche Problems To Follow?

I'm faced with another opportunity to dig the vehicles out
of the driveway as the snow continues to fall this morning
in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Well, we Vermonters are in the process of getting over another winter storm, though snow is continuing off and on at least into midday.

Amazingly, given the complexity of forecasting this thing, the storm behaved pretty close to what was expected. Sleet and some freezing rain worked its way as far north as somewhere between Route 4 and Route 2.

The thought was the sleet would make it to around Route 2. Given the forecast challenges, that is pretty close to what was expected.

It was still snowing in most of Vermont as of 8:30 a.m., so snow totals are not final. But it looks like the National Weather Service in South Burlington and most local meteorologists got it right. 

For instance, as of 8 a.m, my property in St. Albans, Vermont had gotten 7.6 inches of snow. (Somebody else in town measured 8.2 inches). This was measured right before a heavier band of snow started to move through. So the local forecast of eight to 12 inches for northwestern Vermont will verify.

Elsewhere, the most snow as of 7:30 p.m. in Vermont were 9.5 in Alburgh, a town that was expected to be a hot spot for deeper accumulation. Moretown reported 10 inches. Accumulations in southern Vermont were four to eight inches, suppressed somewhat by the mixture with sleet.

Further north, it was an even bigger storm. Montreal reported close to 16 inches of new snow.

A final, decent band of snow was crossing much of Vermont this morning. It'll pretty much make it through and taper off by midday. (It was coming down hard in St. Albans at 9 a.m.) Until at least noon, expect snow covered, slippery roads and slow going. As most of you already know, a lot of schools are closed and delayed.

If possible, you should delay driving until this afternoon, when conditions improve. By then, we'll have just light snow and flurries. Temperatures will rise to near or just above freezing in the warmer valleys, and near 30 elsewhere. That's more than warm enough for road salt to work, and the plows will surely be out all day too.

The strong winds developed as expected along the western slopes of the Green Moutains, too.  Winds gusted to 64 mph in Mendon and 60 mph in Danby. In the mountains, gusts reached 76 mph atop Mount Mansfield and 91mph atop Whiteface Mountain, New York.

The National Weather Service/South Burlington raised a good point in their forecast discussion this morning. Back country winter sports enthusiasts should really be careful for the next few days.

The snow and sleet that fell can easily slide on steep slopes. Especially since it fell on old, crusty snow. This new snow and sleet won't "bond" to the pre-existing snowcover, so it can easily turn into an avalanche. Strong mountain winds also produced a lot of snow loading in chutes and ravines, which also increases the risk of avalanches.

This risk extends through the Green, White and Adirondack mountains. The NWS has issued a special weather statement to alert people to this problem.

After today, the next storm is coming along Friday. It won't be as big as forecasters thought earlier this week, but it will be a warm one.

Expect snow and rain showers on Friday as temperatures rise well into the 30s to near 40 in the warmer valleys. A couple inches of additional snow will probably accumulate in the mountains. Unfortunately, the snow will turn crusty again in the valleys as temperatures fall Saturday, and we will once again have a lot of ice underfoot, as we have most of this changeable winter.

After this weekend, it's hard to tease out what kind of storminess wil happen around here. The weather pattern is fast and active and complex, so it's nearly impossible to gauge the development, timing, path and strength of any storm more than a few days away.

Burlington, Vermont is now just about up to its normal amount of snow for an entire winter - around 80 inches. But that surely means the snow won't shut off. There will be more after this week. It's just hard to tell when and how much.

Severe Storms, Wind, Downpours, Floods: Busy Vermont Spring Day Today

The area in orange, which includes most of Vermont and most of New
York, is at the greatest risk of severe thunderstorms and possible
tornadoes today. There's a risk, too, in the yellow areas.

UPDATE AS OF NOON: If anything, the chances of us here in Vermont and New York getting severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes has increased since earlier forecasts this morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the threat level from "slight" to "enhanced."

This scale is a five level risk assessment of potential severe storms. It goes from marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate and high, so you can see we're in the mid-range of the risk.

Which is a relatively high risk. 

The main threat continues to be strong, damaging thunderstorm winds. Not everybody will see this, but a few of us will. I almost guarantee there will be at least some isolated reports of damage in Vermont and New York today.

There continues to be a small but real threat of tornadoes today. Winds are veering with height, so presents the possibility.  The five percent chance zone - the area where there's a five percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point, has been expanded eastward from the Champlain Valley to now cover almost all of Vermont.

There's not a lot of sun to destabilize the atmosphere, so that's the only thing that would help preclude storms.  There was some thought that rain showers this morning would further stabilize the atmosphere and limit storms, but those morning light showers have mostly dissipated, so I don't expect them to be a factor.

Damaging hail is still a risk, too.

The upper air dynamics are so favorable for severe storms I don't blame the Storm Prediction Center for upgrading the risk today.

While widespread flooding is not likely, a few areas that get hit by two or more torrential thunderstorms could have high water issues. Any thunderstorm could also produce street flooding and dangerous lightning.

I still think not much is going to happen until around 2 p.m. or after. But storms should rapidly develop today in New York and head east. It's going to be a very busy and possibly dangerous late afternoon and early evening in Vermont.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

I hope you like busy weather days because today will be one here in Vermont and surrounding areas.

The biggest thing to worry about is the possibility of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, as most of the ingredients you need for such weather are coming together.

There's high winds aloft. Winds are changing direction with height. There's plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to feed the storms.

All you need is something to trigger the storms.  And..viola! A nice strong cold front coming in from the west to act as a trigger.

The biggest threat from the storms will be strong damaging winds. As is the case with all severe storm risks, only a few places will get destructive gusts.  It's impossible to predict who will get a severe storm until less than an hour before it happens, so all of us have to be weather aware today and listen for possible warnings.

Here's a refresher on the general rules. If your area goes under a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch, just keep doing your regular routine but keep an ear to a weather radio or local media for updates and alerts and be ready to take action if necessary.

If you get a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning, take shelter pronto. You'll want to get into a sturdy building and stay away from windows.  In the off chance you get a tornado warning in particular, it definitely wouldn't hurt to head to the basement and stay in a sturdy area down there until you get the all clear.

TORNADO?

I did mention tornadoes up above, didn't it?  Here's another thing: There's actually a very slight, but real risk of tornadoes today, especially in the Champlain Valley and most of northern New York. Remember, I told you that the wind direction today is changing with elevation. Such a scenario can sometimes lead to tornadoes.

If discrete thunderstorms -- storms not part of a long line of storms that will get going ahead of the main show just ahead of the cold front today - those storms could produce a tornado.  If these storms form, they would develop this afternoon over the Adirondacks and head toward the Champlain Valley.

Like I said, the chance of a tornado is low, but I bet there will be one or two, especially over New York and possibly the Champlain Valley. To give you an idea of the chances of a twister, today from the Champlain Valley west, there's a five percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of where you're sitting.  Like I said, a remote possibility, but real.

Areas in green and brown have a very, very slight but still real
chance of a tornado today. Yep, this includes Vermont. 

As the cold front approaches, I think there will be a good line of showers and thunderstorms, a few of them severe, just ahead of it.

Some of those storms will grab some of those high-level strong winds and bring them to the Earth's surface as damaging gusts.

A few places could also get large, damaging hail stones. There's a chance one or two storms might bring hail big enough to ding cars and siding, and damage windows.

Overall, the best chances for severe storms today will be between 2 and 8 p.m. with western areas getting the storms earlier and eastern areas getting them later in that time frame.

FLOOD ISSUES?

The storms will be moving through pretty fast, so they won't linger over any one area for a long time. That's good to prevent flooding. Still, torrential downpours will come with some of the storms, so there might be street and small stream flooding.

A few flooding problems have already developed here and there due to previous showers and snow melting from the  mountains. A local state of emergency was declared yesterday around Saranac Lake, New York due to flooding, which is ongoing this morning.

A flood warning has also been issued for the Lake Champlain basin, as the lake approaches its flood stage of 100 feet. At that level, some low lying roads get flooded, wave action could cause damage to camp property and places like Perkins Pier in Burlington go underwater.

The flooding along Lake Champlain is expected to be pretty minor, as things don't usually get that gnarly along the lake unless the level goes to at least 100.5 feet.

NON-STORM HIGH WINDS

Even if you don't get a nasty thunderstorm, winds will become pretty strong and gusty outside the areas of thunderstorms today and tonight. Even after the cold front goes through and the threat of severe thunderstorms ends, strong southwest winds gusting to as high as 45 in Vermont and 55 mph in New York state tonight could bring down a few more trees and power lines.

LOOKING AHEAD

Once you get through the stormy weather today and tonight, you're going to be rewarded with a gorgeous Saturday. Temperatures will be in the 60s to low 70s, and there will be quite a bit of sun.

It looks like another strong cold front will come through sometime Sunday. Unlike today, there won't be thunderstorms. Instead, there will be a fair number of scattered showers, all on the light side during Sunday. I think most of the showers will hold off until afternoon and really get going Sunday night - but there won't be any big huge downpours.

Sunday's cold front will introduce a brief shot of chilly air Sunday night and Monday. It could even snow on the mountain peaks Sunday night. (I know, you don't like the s-word, but I had to say it.)

There could also be frost Sunday night and Monday morning, and again Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Such a frost isn't the least bit unusual for our neck of the woods in early May. Still, if you brought out some sensitve plants, bring 'em indoors.

A welcome spell of dry weather is likely starting Monday and continuing probably at least into Thursday.  Temperatures will also warm up again, reaching the 60s Tuesday and possibly low 70s Wednesday and Thursday.

Dangerous Tornadoes Are Also Beautiful, In A Way

A supercell thunderstorm appears ready to drop a tornado on Kansas
last night. Photo via Twitter @mwxhitaker -- McKinsey Whitaker

As expected, dangerous severe storms and tornadoes blossomed across mostly Kansas and Nebraska yesterday and last night.

The good news is that although some of the tornadoes appeared to be quite strong, they moved over open, rural land and did not enter any towns or cities.

That meant damage was relatively light, and we have no reports of serious injuries or deaths to talk about today.

That's pretty damn good, since there were at least 21 reports of tornadoes yesterday.

By the way, Oklahoma broke its tornado drought. Until Tuesday, there had been no tornadoes in Oklahoma this year. That's the longest period on record that Oklahoma has gone without a tornado. But on Tuesday, a tornado formed just south of the border with Kansas. The twister quickly moved into Kansas, but this still counts as Oklahoma's first tornado of 2018.

Close-range view of a dangerous tornado near Teacott, Kansas Tuesday.
Photo via twitter @BraydonMoreSo - Braydon Morisseau. 

As usual, hordes of storm chasers clustered around the storms to record their power and beauty.

Although I give you the caveat that I'm always nervous about so many chasers getting in the way of each other, local residents and first responders. It could cause traffic jams, which would mean getting out of the way of an approaching tornado would be difficult.

Tornadoes out in the Plains, in places like Kansas, tend to be more photogenic than in other places.

Unlike in the South or further east in the Midwest, there are no trees or hills to obscure views of the twisters.

Further east and south of places like Kansas, tornadoes can be particularly dangerous. You get a tornado warning, and human nature being what it is, people actually go looking for confirmation that there actually is a tornado. Instead of immediately seeking shelter, as they should do.

By the time they spot the tornado, it's marauding through the forest right behind their house, and it's too late to take cover. Death and injuries result.

Gorgeous supercell forming over Kansas Tuesday
Photo via Twitter, @TRAVELSnCHASES

That said, it can be very dangerous out in the Plains, too, if you get a tornado warning and go looking for it first. The tornado can be obscured by heavy rain and hail, and again, in that case, you wouldn't know it's there until it's right on top of you.

Even so, there were some spectacular images of the storms from yesterday. Judging from the photos and videos I saw today, this is one instance where the still photographs are almost better than the videos.

Now, danger lurks in the Plains again today. It's actually more dangerous than yesterday, because the area most under threat for severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes is somewhat more populated than the areas that were hit Tuesday.

A moderate risk zone today encompasses an area that includes Manhattan, Lawrence and Topeka, Kansas and St. Jospeh Missouri.

There is a slightly lesser but still real risk of severe weather and possible tornadoes today in bigger metropolitan areas like Kansas City, Missouri and Wichita, Kansas.

Still, there are open areas between all those cities, so here's hoping that if any tornadoes form today, they thread the needle and miss subdivisions and instead dance across farm fields, scrubland and prairie.

Rinse And Repeat: Third Nor'Easter To Hit New England After All

This is just one forecast model of what the next
 nor'easter might look like on Tuesday. This one
depicts near blizzard conditions over southeastern
New England. Results may vary, however. The storm's
impacts might be less, or at least different, depending
on where it actually tracks. 

For days, meteorologists and computer forecasting models have been going back and forth on whether the third nor'easter in 10 days would hit New England.

As of Sunday morning, a consensus has arisen: The answer is yes, another nor'easter looms.

There's still a lot of picky details to work out on exactly how big the effects of this new storm will be, and where the worst of it will strike.

As of this morning, winter storm watches covered all of New Hampshire, the southwestern half of Maine, much of eastern Massachusetts, and a little bit of Connecticut and Rhode Island.  I imagine watches, warnings or advisories might expand a bit over the region.

Meanwhile, as the storm begins to gather, there' is a winter storm warning for Monday in parts of western Virginia, a little bit of West Virginia and the western mountains of North Carolina. That's a little far south for a winter storm warning for this time of year. Not unprecedented, but still definitely unusual.

At this point, the thinking is the storm will consolidate and head east northeast off the North Carolina coast on Monday. The original hope is the storm would continue on that general track and pass too far off the New England coast to have a huge effect.

Now it's looking more and more like an upper level storm over or near southeastern Canada will "capture" this nor'easter and draw it in more of a due north direction off the coast of Cape Cod and on toward the eastern tip of Maine Tuesday.

Just how far offshore this storm will be as it moves due north will determine how badly it impacts New England. (This track does seem to mean that unlike the last two nor'easters, New Jersey and southeastern New York won't be affected too terribly bad.)

In New England, it's looking like the track might favor heavy snow in the eastern half of the region Monday night and Tuesday. I'll get into specific Vermont effects in a minute but we will get some snow out of this in the Green Mountain State.

The snow will once again be heavy and wet, and this nor'easter, like most, will have quite a bit of wind with it. There's been so much tree and power line damage in eastern New England from the last two nor'easters, and this wet snow/wind combination will just make things worse. It's a wonder there will be trees left in that region.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Even as we contemplate the next nor'easter coming along on or about Tuesday, we're still feeling the effects of the last one here in Vermont - the one that began last Wednesday.

As expected, one last round of snow came through mostly northern Vermont last night as the old nor'easter spun down over southeastern Canada. The heaviest snow overnight came, as predicted, along the western slopes and spine of the the Green Mountains, and in the Northeast Kingdom.

A lot of places reported three to six inches of new snow overnight. Some big jackpot winners with the Saturday night/Sunday morning snow include 11 inches in Morgan, Vermont, and eight inches in both Underhill and Smuggler's Notch, Vermont.

This latest round of snow was finally tapering off as of mid-morning Sunday, and things will be pretty quiet in the weather department until late Monday night and Tuesday.

Again, how much snow Vermont gets will depend upon how close to the coast it gets. As noted, winter storm watches extend as far west right now as the New Hampshire/Vermont border.

A storm track closer to the coast will envelop all of Vermont in relatively heavy snow on Tuesday. A track a little further offshore will put mostly eastern Vermont in the snow zone, at least initially.

Much like the last storm, this new nor'easter looks like it will want to stall or slow down somewhere near the northern tip of Maine or the Canadian Maritimes. This would put northern Vermont in an extended period of snow Tuesday night through Thursday.

That's a repeat of what's happened in the past few days. The biggest accumulations under this scenario would be in the mountains. (Valleys would be a little warmer, so the strengthening March sun would tamp down on snow accumulations, and melt a little bit of the snow during the afternoons.)

There's still a lot of questions about how exactly this storm will pan out, so expect some possibly big adjustments in the forecast between now and Tuesday morning. Nor'easters are notoriously hard to forecast, especially in March, when temperatures are more marginal.

Just expect things to stay relatively wintry for the next several days at least.

Update On That Big, Maybe Dangerous Northeast Storm That's Coming

Storm surges and battering waves batter the Massachusetts
coast in early January. The upcoming storm might create
similar scenes in New England Friday and Saturday

I was working outdoors in my yard in far northwestern Vermont on Tuesday, down to a t-shirt and getting an early jump on preliminary spring cleanup.

It was sunny and warm, like a nice day in April. Daffodil shoots are starting to come up.  

In February!

I shouldn't get used to this. Neither should you.

An oncoming storm, though not particularly cold, has the potential to raise havoc across the Northeast, including perhaps Vermont. And this will introduce a long period of normal March weather going well into the middle of March at least.

The biggest concern, of course, is this big storm, which has long been advertised.  There's still LOTS of uncertainty with how this storm will play out on Friday. It's Wednesday, so usually we have a moderately good handle on how storms will behave two days from now. But this one is so complex, a  lot of things could change before it arrives.

Computer models yesterday suppressed the storm a bit to the south, which would have minimized impacts here in Vermont while continuing to make things bad along the coast from New Jersey into southern New England.

This morning, the models have the storm further north, which puts at least parts of Vermont in play, while continuing to threaten lots of bad things along the southern New England, Long Island, New Jersey and Mid-Atlantic coasts.

Today, the storm will be organizing across the South and Gulf Coast, threatening more heavy rain in regions that got deluged over the past week or two. Flood watches are up from northeast Texas and Arkansas on up into Kentucky and Tenneseee.

There could be severe thunderstorms and maybe a tornado or two today in northeast Texas, northern Louisiana and parts of Arkansas.

The storm will move from the southern Plains to near the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday night, while a secondary storm will form off or near the New Jersey coast.

The coastal storm will become the main player. It will strengthen and move very slowly near the coast Friday before lumbering slowly offshore later Friday and Saturday.

With astronomical tides being high this week, with or without a storm, this storm is still expected to cause a bunch of coastal flooding.

The southern New England coast and parts of Long Island appear to be especially under the gun with coastal flooding, and coastal flood watches are already in effect for Friday and Saturday.

There could be major coastal flooding in certain places especially around Gloucester, Newburyport, Boston Harbor, Revere and Scituate, Massachusetts. It's possible things could get so bad that shoreline homes could be badly damaged or destroyed. At the very least, roads and streets will become inundated, and basements and first floors could get flooded.

Areas along the coast are also at risk for very strong winds with this system. Also, several inches of rain might fall in southern New England as well. Wet snow might fall inland.

VERMONT IMPACTS

With the coastal storm now seeming like it wants to hug the coast more and be a little further north than yesterday's forecasts, it now looks like parts of Vermont are under the gun for some trouble with this storm.

There's already a winter storm watch up for western and central New York for the initial storm that will come up to the Great Lakes, followed by Atlantic moisture streaming in from the new, stronger low along the coast. These areas could see five to nine inches of wet snow out of this.

In Vermont, it still looks like the greatest effects will be in southern and central parts of the state, though all of Vermont looks like it will get some precipitation.

There isn't a lot of cold air for this storm to work with, but once a strong storm forms, it creates its own pool of chillier air, and that might be enough to change rain in some parts of Vermont to wet snow.

This is one tricky forecast, and what happens depends on the exact placement of the storm, the timing, and the amount of cooling aloft. There is the potential, anyway, of heavy wet snow, especially in the mid and higher elevations of the southern and central Green Mountains.  The wet snow, combined with expected strong and gusty east winds could really create some power failure problems in the southern half of Vermont.

Speaking of wind, this might be a good set up for especially strong and damaging winds along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, especially in the southern half of the state.

Another thing to watch out for: Especially if the marginal temperatures between snow and rain stay a little on the warm side, there might be enough rain in parts of Vermont to cause some flooding potential. Again, the greatest risk is in central and southern Vermont.

Things could change, but northern Vermont looks like it will have unpleasant weather Friday, with rain, snow, or a mix and some gusty winds. However, if the forecast trend to bring the storm further and further north, the top half of Vermont could also see some real problems with this system.

This forecast is based on what the National Weather Service is saying. They almost guarantee, as do I, that there will be shifts in the forecast as we get closer to the actual storm. The system is a meteorologist's headache, with lots of moving parts, and it has a high bust potential.