Two Destructive Storms Affecting U.S.; Some Effects Here In Vermont

Latest National Weather Service forecast snow map. Yellow and
orange areas, mostly in the Northeast Kingdom and high elevations
depict more than six inches of new snow. 

The storm that's going to sock Maine later today with a major snowstorm and us Vermonters with our share of rain and snow, has really packed a punch in other parts of the nation already.

Or at least the ingredients feeding into this storm have.

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms swept large areas of the Midwest and South yesterday.  This was  part of the energy feeding into the storm, which I will call Storm #1.  That's because a Storm #2 will create its own big havoc Sunday and Monday. More on that in a bit.

One of yesterday's tornadoes passed very close to Jonesboro, Arkansas, which was hit by a destructive tornado on March 28.  Yesterday's tornado formed southwest of Jonesboro, which is bad because more often than not, twisters head toward the northeast.

This one went east and southeast, though, damaging or destroying more than two dozen homes around Harrisburg, Arkansas, which is a little south of Jonesboro.

Other possible tornadoes were scattered yesterday across the Midwest and South.

As the storm heads east to consolidate over New England, the system's cold front will probably set off more severe thunderstorms along the East Coast from the Carolinas to southern New England, with a zone from Washington DC to New York City being the best focus for damaging straight line winds.

The storm will rapidly organize into a big nor'easter along the coast of Maine tonight. The National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine is calling this an extremely impressive storm for mid-April. More than two feet of snow could smother Mount Katahdin, and many lowland areas in interior Maine could easily close in on 18 inches of heavy, wet snow. Snowfall rates in some parts of Maine tonight will go at two to three inches per hour, which is wild.

VERMONT EFFECTS

We'll get nothing like that here in Vermont, but it will still get unpleasant in a hurry today and stay that way at least through Friday.

The storm will start with a good slug of chilly rain, possibly starting out mixed with a few wet snowflakes in the high spots.

The rain will go over to snow this evening, first in the high elevations then going down to valley floors overnight in Vermont. Far northeastern Vermont is under a winter storm warning because six to 10 inches of wet snow is likely there through Friday.

Much of north central Vermont away from Lake Champlain  has got a winter weather advisory for two to six inches of snow.  The high peaks of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks could get six to 12 inches of snow, locally more out of this.

Even in the Champlain Valley, we'll wake up to a coating of snow Friday morning.

Friday is going to be a nasty day in Vermont by April standards. Snow showers will come down in many areas much of the morning, mixing with cold raindrops in the valleys as temperatures "warm" into the upper 30s.  Strong northwest winds will make it feel even more wintry.

It's still be chilly Saturday, but brighter. Sunday looks OK before the next storm hits which I will get into in a bit.

STORM #2

Forecasters are getting increasingly worried about what will become of a storm that's been meandering around southern California for days.

It'll finally eject into the southern Plains of the United States this weekend. Ingredients seem to be coming together or a big severe weather outbreak in the Deep South by Sunday.

Details are hard to tease out at this point, but the potential is at least there for strong, long lasting tornadoes from Louisiana to Florida.  This still might or might not happen, as a few factors could limit the severe weather. But at this point, things don't look good, and  people in the Deep South ought to be thinking about where they would go in a huge jiffy if these big tornadoes do develop. It's looking like a distinct possibility.

Storm #2 will turn into a strong system as it heads into the Great Lakes Monday.  Up here in Vermont, the early indications are we'll get a relatively mild day with a good chunk of wind and rain Monday, followed by an extended period of March-like temperatures following the storm.

BIG Thump Of Snow Surprises Every Vermonter, Including Meteorologists

Winter wonderland in my St. Albans, Vermont yard this morning.

Yesterday and last night's big dumping of snow on Vermont, which surprised everybody, is proof that even with all the fancy-dancy computer models and super smart meterologists out there, the weather can still sneak up on everybody.

As we now know, what had been widely expected to be a decent snowstorm in southern Vermont and no big deal central and north turned out to be anything but.

A band of very heavy snow crept from south to north over all but far northwestern Vermont Monday afternoon and evening.  Snowfall rates in that band were up to three inches per hour, which is pretty much the heaviest snowfall rate possible.

Burlington, for instance, got 2.9 inches of snow in one hour for a storm total of 5.5 inches. The forecast Monday morning called for a storm total of about an inch, so Burlington got roughly three times the predicted snow in just one hour.

Not all Vermont storm snow totals were in yet as of early this morning, but the numbers we do have are impressive, to say the least.

The Northeast Kingdom and parts of central Vermont, especially in Rutland and Windsor counties were close. Quechee reported 11 inches, the most I've seen so far from this storm.  Mount Holly, Worcester, Winhall, Kirby, Calais and Walden all got 10 inches. Around 9 inches fell in St. Johnsbury, Middlebury and Benson.

The 10 or so inches in the Northeast Kingdom were especially impressive since only two or three inches of snow had been predicted there.

Only the far northwest corner of Vermont sort of escaped, but still got more than we bargained for.  Here at my St. Albans property, I collected 3.5 inches of snow.

WHY THE BOTCHED FORECAST

Winter returned overnight for a brief stay in St. Albans, Vermont 

So: Why was the forecast so wrong?  Very frequently in snowstorms, a heavy band of precipitation sets up on the north or northwest side of a storm. That was actually expected to happen with this storm.

Also, as expected, this band of heavy precipitation set itself up Monday across central New England, where winter storm warnings were put up well in advance of this expectation.

The problem was this band of heavy snow, against every expectations lifted northward all the way to the Canadian border in Vermont and New Hampshire. (Another band of heavy precipitation took shape in central New England and pretty much stayed there for a little while, as forecast).

That band of heavy snow lifting northward was not caught in advance by any of the computer models that meteorologist at least partly rely upon.  Sometimes, despite all the advances in technology, the models are not yet always sophisticated enough to catch relatively small scale features like that unpredicted snow band.  

The computer models got the path of the storm correct, they were right about its central strength and forward speed, but were wrong about what happened with the storm here in Vermont.  This time, when the forecasts ended up being wrong, we all surely noticed.

This is not to say we should just give up on weather forecasts. Meteorologists are smart scientists, and the computer models have gotten a lot better with their data over the years.  Which means most of the time, the forecast is correct. Generally speaking, at least 80 percent of weather forecasts for the next day or two turn out to be completely accurate.

But occasionally, we do have to deal with a big surprise, like we did last night.

WHAT'S NEXT

The storm is over, and the cleanup begins. It was a fairly warm storm. You'll notice that the snow is wet and heavy. If you must go out and travel, the main roads were pretty much OK by 7 a.m. - just wet. Secondary roads will have some iffy conditions for awhile, but they'll melt out.

Speaking of melting, if you don't like all this new snow, it will melt pretty fast. True, the unexpectedly deep snow will reflect the sun's heat back into space a bit, so it'll be a little cooler today than originally forecast as a result.

Still, most valley locations will get into the 40s today. Skies will partly clear, and even where it stays relatively cloudy, some of the sun's heat will get through. The sun angle is high now, so that will aid in melting the snow.  The ground is not really frozen, so that will help, too.

We're actually set up for a couple days of great sugaring weather. The snow cover will encourage chillier temperatures for the next couple of nights with lows well down into the 20s. Daytime highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 40s. That is perfect for maple sugaring.

A few days ago, it looked like another storm would take a path similar to yesterday's which risked bringing us more snow tomorrow.  But that system will be weaker and further south than the one we just had, so it won't give us any trouble. We're in the clear.

Some rain showers will probably creep in Thursday. A larger storm seems likely this weekend, but the details on that one are still very sketchy. Early indications are the weekend storm will be mostly, but not exclusively rain.  We'll have to wait and see.

Big Storm Winding Down Tonight In Vermont

It seemed like my house and truck in St. Albans, Vermont were gradually
 disappearing beneath deepening snow today despite my futile
efforts to keep shoveling. 

Given that the big storm we had today in Vermont was a nightmare to forecast, I'm impressed by how close the National Weather Service and other area meteorologists were able to predict accurately, well in advance, what would happen with this thing.

As forecast, the snow moved in from northwest to southeast starting early this morning and continuing through the day.

The band of heaviest snow came through in the late morning to mid afternoon, which several reports of one to three inch per hour snowfall rates.

As of 4 p.m. today, I measured 11 inches of new snow at my place in St. Albans, Vermont today. Combined with the 2.1 inches of snow that fell yesterday, the storm total so far is 13.1 inches. It was still snowing at that hour, though somewhat less intensely than it did earlier. The bottom line is I'll come very close to the roughly 18 inches of new snow the National Weather Service office in South Burlington said I would get.

As of 4:55 p.m., the National Weather Service in South Burlington reported 11.5 inches of snow just today so far, for a two day total of 14.1 inches. I guess the Champlain Valley had some pretty uniform storm totals, although down toward Middlebury, there was definitely less snow than further north.

Snow totals taper off a lot as you head south and east across Vermont, as expected.

The only slight things off with the forecast were that ice accumulation was a bit heavier than expected last night in parts of the Champlain Valley. And the changeover to snow in the northwestern half of Vermont came just a wee bit earlier than expected, but not by much.

It appears the ice was also more destructive east of the Green Mountains than originally anticipated.  As of 5 p.m. Friday, Vermont Outage Map was reporting at least 13,000 homes and businesses without power, with most of those problems along and east of the Green Mountains from Caledonia County southward.

It looks like freezing rain, followed by snow that was initially wet and heavy, plus gusty northwest winds did a number on trees and power lines there.  

A snow covered car guns up equally snowy Fairfield Hill Road
in St. Albaans on Friday. 

As happy as I am with the accurate, user-friendly job the National Weather Service and area meteorologists did with this storm, I have a really serious bone to pick with some employers in Vermont.

Outfits like the University of Vermont and the state of Vermont government - at least parts of it - made people come to work this morning.

Then, when, as expected, the snow got intense and the roads became almost impassable, these idiot employers said, "Hey, Guess what?!? We're sending you home now. The storm is bad." 

Well, duh!

So, people had to drive home on unsafe roads in minimal visibility during the height of the storm.  Why did UVM and other not just have people not come to work this morning? Don't use the excuse, "Well, the roads weren't that bad at 8 a.m.!"

Never mind that every single Vermont weather forecast I came across this morning - all the TV meteorologists in Vermont, Eye On the Sky, the National Weather Service - were basically screaming that things would get out of hand with the weather by mid-morning. And that's exactly what happened.

I guess these employers don't give a crap about their employees' safety.

Kudos, by the way, to my supervisor at Gardener's Supply, where I work, who called me before 8 a.m. and told me not to come to work because of the weather.  Which meant I avoided a terrible, potentially dangerous commute back and forth between St. Albans and Burlington, Vermont.

 (I asked UVM about all this by responding to their Twitter message about the midday closure, but  as of late this afternoon, Twitter was refusing to let me post anything or receive messages and notifications. I don't know why.)

This evening, if you're home, stay there. Yes, the storm is winding down, but it will probably keep snowing until around midnight. True, it won't come down nearly as heavily as it did earlier today, but the flakes will keep flying. Gusty winds through the night will keep the snow blowing around too.

On top of that, this was a pretty big snowfall, at least in northwestern Vermont. It's also icy further south. Road crews were working pretty damn hard as of late Friday afternoon, but it will take a while to clean up this mess.

Vermont Emergency Management today did give one good reason why you might want to leave the house this evening.  That would be to check on your elderly neighbors.  Do they have heat? Do they need a path out of house through the snow? Are they OK?

After you're done with that, just go back inside and binge watch Netflix or something.

Also, in areas where the snow is pretty deep now, clear the powder away from vents. You don't want carbon monoxide backing up into the house. That oderless gas is a killer, you know.

In the wake of the storm, we'll have some pretty chilly air to deal with. It'll get close to zero tonight, with wind chills well below zero. It'll only get into the teens at best Saturday, and by Sunday morning, it'll be 5 to 15 below in most areas of the state.  That's the coldest it's been all winter, although that's not extreme by Vermont standards.

A brief warmup Monday means many valley locations will have some minor thawing. Say goodbye to the powder, though as the snow settles and gets wetter then freezes up a bit.

More periods of snow and snow showers will continue on and off all of next week, but there won't be any major storms or blockbuster accumulations.

It's February, deal with it.

Big Snow Dump Likely Coming To Northern Vermont/NY

The famous National Weather Service snow forecast map from the
National Weathe Service in South Burlington. Click on it to
make it bigger and easier to see.  There could be 20
inches or more of snow from this storm near the Canadian border.

As expected the first inch or few inches of snow have fallen in much of Vermont early this morning in what promises to be a long slog through snow and mixed precipitation.

The precipitation will harass us through tonight, but the main show comes on Friday, and it has the potential to be a real doozy.

As of around 8 a.m., light snow was falling over most of Vermont, with mixed precipitation coming into the far south of the state. The question for today is, how far north will that mix get?

There's no question the southern half of Vermont will be pretty damn messy today.  

After the few inches of snow that accumulate there this morning, it'll go over to sleet and freezing rain.  In the southern half of Vermont, that mix of yuck will probably continue into Friday morning.

The most ice will probably accumulate south of Route 4.  Except in some isolated areas, it won't be enough to cause tree and power line damage, but it will surely mess up travel!  Additional snow toward the end of the storm could cause more power line trouble Friday.

It's hard to say how far north the sleet or a little freezing rain will get, but I wouldn't be surprised if sleet made it as far north as the Canadian border, at least briefly.  Still, areas north of Route 2 will be mostly snow through tonight.

The rate of precipitation will lull you into a false sense of security this afternoon and this evening.  It won't come down hard, and you'll say, "Oh, this isn't so bad. Another hyped storm."

And I suppose there's a chance it could be a bust.  But right now, things are lining up for Grand Hurrah for the last phase of the storm on Friday - one that could bring a good foot and a half of snow, especially to places north of that infamous Route 2 line.

Yesterday, I mentioned that often, on the northwest side of a storm moving up the New England coast, you get a band of especially heavy precipitation that pretty much stays nearly in one place for several hours at least.

It's starting to become a little more clear where that band will set up, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

They're saying that band of heavy snow will establish itself over northern New York before dawn, then slowly crawl eastward across Vermont during the day Friday. Under this band, snowfall rates could easily reach one to two inches per hour, possibly even more than that. - which is really, really heavy snow. A good portion of northern Vermont could easily get six to 12 inches snow in just a few hours.  

Ice accumulation forecast for this storm in southern Vermont. The
ice, combined with some heavy, wet snow, could cause
scattered power outages Friday.

The expected set up, with a strong, deep cold front hitting the intense moisture feed with this storm, is a recipe for really heavy snow.

It's similar to they type of situation we had in the Valentine's Blizzard of 2007, or the Pi Day Blizzard of March, 2017.  

However, having said that, it does NOT look like this storm will be as bad as those two famous storms. The band of heavy snow won't last nearly as long in any one place as it did in these two historic storms.

At this point the heaviest snow in this band seems like it will come through in the morning to mid-afternoon, so I would stay put and not drive anywhere during this. The snow will initially be somewhat wet and heavy, but turn much more powdery as the day wears on.

Southern Vermont has an even trickier forecast with this.  Remember, they'll be more into the sleet and freezing rain Friday morning.  My guess is they'll be on the southern end of this intense precipitation band.

Sleet and freezing rain could turn heavy for a time, then change to a period of heavy snow, with several inches of accumulation a good bet.

It's interesting that northern Vermont is under a winter storm warning for this event, while southern Vermont is under what to a layman seems like a less dire but still to be taken seriously winter weather advisory.

In my experience, dealing with, then cleaning up after a combined mixed precipitation and heavy snow event is much more difficult than just enduring, then shoveling away a particularly deep snowstorm that comes with little or no ice.

The snow will become lighter in intensity late in the afternoon or evening on Friday, then end overnight, aside from continued snow showers in the mountains.

However, definitely stay home Friday night if you can. Winds will pick up to 20 mph or so, with gusts of 35 mph.  That'll cause a lot of blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures will plummet overnight, too, dropping to near zero in many spots by Saturday morning. Wind chills will be a huge problem.

Saturday will be the time to enjoy a powder day in the northern Green Mountains. It'll still definitely be on the cold side, but the winds will slowly diminish and skies will get sunnier.  Sunday looks pretty gorgeous, too, with light winds and highs up in the 20s (after temperatures recover from below zero readings early Sunday morning.)

The bottom line is this will probably be Vermont's Storm of the Winter.  At least in most of the state. (A December storm was much bigger than this in far southern Vermont.) A band across extreme northern New York, then through places like St. Albans and on over to Newport could get about 20 inches of snow.  Which means this is more than a typical Vermont snowstorm.

Areas between Route 4 and Route 2 are in for roughly a foot of snow, give or take a few inches.  South of Route 4, all that mixed precipitation will limit totals to eight inches or less. At least that's the way it looks now.

Potential surprises with this storm:  Mixed precipitation could work further north than expected, cutting down accumulations somewhat. Or, that band of really heavy snow expected Friday in the north could end up being a little less intense than forecast, which would cut down forecast totals. On the other hand, local wind effects working with this band of snow could create spot snow totals of two feet or more in some northern locations

In southern Vermont, if the atmosphere is a bit colder than expected, snow accumulations will obviously be a little heavier. On the other hand, it's possible it could get a little warmer than forecast, which would change everything over to plain rain for a time.

So yeah, there are still question marks about this storm.  But one thing is for sure: You will certainly notice this storm.

Vermont Snowfall Seems To Be Working Out Just As Expected

Looking out of my St. Albans, Vermonthouse past the wreath at a newly
nowy deck and surroundings

It's 11 a.m. on a lazy winter Thursday in St. Albans, Vermont.

I haven't even been outdoors yet, but it looks as if we have a good six inches of new snow at least out there, and it's still snowing a little bit.

It's one example of many of a moderate Vermont January snowfall that has pretty much worked out just as forecast.  

There are many reports of snow fall totals of near six inches so far. The most I've seen so far is 7.7 inches in Orange, Vermont, but I'm sure we'll get updates with higher totals.

Areas in the winter storm warning across the north and mountains had been under a forecast for six to 10 inches of accumulation, so it looks like the predictions will be spot on.

A few areas in the winter weather advisory areas that had been expected to get three to five inches are on the high end of that prediction.  The National Weather Service office in South Burlington, in that winter weather advisory zone, reports 5.5 inches of new snow, and was still snowing lightly there late this morning.

For most of us, the heaviest snow is behind us as of 11 a.m. Snow showers will continue  for many of us, but it won't amount to anything huge. Maybe a couple inches, with more in the mountains.  And isn't nice for this winter to get through an entire storm in which it just snows, and we don't get any ice, sleet, yuckiness and schmutz?

However, winter storm warnings continue across the north and mountains until 7 p.m. today, and winter weather advisories continue until the same time elsewhere.

That's a good move on the part of the National Weather Service in South Burlington.  As I said, light snow is continuing, roads are bad, and the wind is getting ready to pick up.

That'll really blow the snow around quite a bit through this afternoon. Visibility will be a problem with this blowing snow, especially in open areas.  Winds will gust to over 30 mph, so that's more than enough to cause a lot of blowing and drifting. If you went to work today, the drive home will probably be tricky, too.

I'm noticing winds just starting to pick up in St. Albans now. The snow is beginning to blow off the trees.

Temperatures were still on the mild side as of 11 a.m.,, hovering near 30 degrees. They'll start to fall this afternoon, and that will set us up for definitely a frigid spell.

By early tomorrow morning, actual temperatures will be near 0 and wind chills could be as nasty as 25 below.  As they say, bundle up, children!

It won't get that warm Friday afternoon, either.  Most of us Vermonters will stay at or below 10 degrees for highs.

The next storm comes in Saturday with a quick squirt of warmer air and also a quick squirt of snow.

At this point, the fast moving weekend storm won't have time to drop much snow, but a lot of spots will get a few more inches. So that's nice, I suppose.

Another Arctic cold spell, this one lasting longer than the one coming in tonight, will hit Sunday night through Wednesday.  The cold won't be anything spectacular for a Vermont January, but the air still will have a definite bite.

Look for lows at or below 0 for the first half of next week and highs in the single numbers and teens.

It looks, tentatively at least, that we're also entering a drier weather pattern.  I suppose it's possible some type of storminess might come up from the south or west in the final 10 days of the month, but that prospect is looking iffy at best.

Temperatures in the closing third of January also look like they will be near to a little below normal in Vermont, perhaps trending back to a little warmer than normal at the tail end of January.

Long range forecasts are not always accurate, so don't really take my word on this. But we do know one thing.  Winter's back!

New England Storm: Forecast Steady As She Goes

Areas in yellow can expect six inches or more of snow out this storm. Most
of the orange areas can expect a foot or more, at least according to
this National Weather Service forecast. Note the light blue
in far northern Vermont. That represents an inch or less of snow.

We continue on with our winter routine of watching and waiting on the next New England snow and ice storm and speculating as to whether forecasts will turn out to be accurate.

One thing that gives me confidence in the predictions for this latest storm is how consistent they are.  They are virtually unchanged from yesterday morning. This, of course, does not mean we won't be surprised.  

This will primarily be a central New England and central New York affair, with many of those spots still under the gun for a good foot of snow, with maybe some freezing rain thrown in for good measure.

The winter storm warnings for this storm go from northeastern Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey, up through most of southern and central New York, and on into southern Vermont and New Hampshire, and northern Massachusetts.

As of this morning, a dangerous ice storm was going on in southern Ontario, western New York and parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey.  Roads are a mess, there's already many reports of crashes, and people are worried about trees and power lines coming down.

That first wave of precipitation, in western New York, will slowly

Here in Vermont, it still looks like a tale of two climates, at least for a couple days. The southern end of the state is still in line for a good foot of snow. Up at the Canadian border, there will practically be nothing. We think.

In between, Rutland and Windsor counties have been upgraded to a winter storm warning, since a lot of that area has a good shot of seeing six inches or more of snow between now and Tuesday morning.

That ice out west probably won't make it to Vermont, aside from some freezing drizzle or light freezing rain possible overnight tonight in far southern parts of the state.

This storm will last a long time and winds will come from the east or northeast through most of it

That means the east slopes and summits of the Green Mountains from central Vermont south will be the big winners.  As mentioned yesterday, winds will be forced to rise up those slopes. Rising air cools. Cooler air can't hold as much moisture, so that wetness will come out of the sky as lots and lots and lots of snowflakes.

I could see a foot of snow falling as far north as Killington, and eight inches as far north as Sugarbush. No guarantees on this, but it's set up like that.

The first surge of snow will come at us during the day today, but it will gradually fade on its way into and through Vermont. By the time it reaches the Canadian border this evening,  expect basically flurries up there.

A stronger surge of snow will come down Monday as the storm consolidates along the New England coast. This is another tricky part, as the heaviest snow for these types of storms usually sets up north and west of the center.

But how far north and west of the storm's center?  The snow might concentrate a little further south and east in Massachusetts, or it could set up more in southern Vermont and eastern New York.  Or somewhere in between.

As the storm moves toward the northeast, this band of snow will be a moving target, so everybody in the winter storm warning area will get a decent blast of snow. It's just hard to tell who the big "winners" will be.

As the storm moves north, off the coast of Maine, I'm also wondering if that band of snow will move northward with it, coming into areas north of Route 2 in Vermont, especially east of the Champlain Valley. That's speculation at this point,  and a low chance of that happening, but something to watch.

There could still be some northern Vermont surprises, though the current forecasts of next to no snow on the Canadian border still looks good, and will probably be the outcome.

There's no big storms coming this week after this one goes by, but frequent disturbances will create chances for snow showers off and on through next weekend.

Vermont Midwinter in November - Continued

Beautiful satellite photo from Friday afternoon showing streaks
of clouds, many of them snow showers as cold air
blasted into New England. 

So, that was a quick plunge into winter wasn't it?

Around the Champlain Valley of Vermont, Friday morning was basically a complete societal breakdown, as we seem to get every year during the first snowy morning commute of the winter season.

Yes, it was icy and we all had to drive slowly.  But, as always, there were a few people panicking and a few people who thought driving on bald tires on ice at 100 mph was a good idea. So the rest of us sat, like forever, in the resulting traffic jams. Most of us were late to work.

We got through that, only to face more winter coming up. Nastier than Friday, for sure.  I'll get to that in a minute.

Yesterday truly was a harsh, sudden introduction to winter. Considering that Burlington's high temperature Friday was only 30 degrees, tying a record for the lowest high for the date. The 2.6 inches of snow in Burlington was also a record for the date, just squeaking by the 2.5 inches on November 8, 1968.

Check out the satellite photo in this post (Click on it to make it bigger and easier to see). Most of those streaks of clouds are snow showers produced by the cold air blasting into New England Friday afternoon. If you look closely, you see clear skies in the immediate western shore of Lake Champlain near Plattsburgh.

Winds from the west flow downward off the slopes of the Adirondacks.  Sinking air dries out, causing the little patch of clear skies. If you look even more closely, you can see an enhanced streak of clouds from about Burlington southeastward into southern Chittenden and northern Addison counties. That's a lake effect snow band off of Lake Champlain.

You can also see larger patches of clouds near and north of the Quebec border, which were heavier snow squalls.

It was cold this morning, too, with most of us down in the teens. It will still be much colder than  normal this afternoon. It'll only get into the 30s, so bundle up.

On Sunday we get a brief January November thaw, as it will get into the 40s ahead of the next Arctic front that we've been advertising for days.

It's also still looking like a storm will get going along this front just after it pushes through Vermont.  There's nothing definite with this yet, but there is quite a high chance of a pretty big snowstorm, especially for November.

I'm purposely being vague on expected snow accumulations Monday, Monday night and Tuesday because a lot can change in the forecast between now and then. I'm only mentioning it so you can get your snow shovels, snow blowers, skis are whatever else you need ready for the potential.

Nobody has locked in what the potential accumulation will be, but the general consensus is much of Vermont, including the valleys could easily wind up with six or more inches of snow.   This will be followed by one of the sharpest November cold waves on record for the eastern half of the United States, including Vermont.

All this is bad news for people still trying to recover from last week's destructive storm in Vermont. A lot of roads were badly damaged or washed out entirely, and it is taking a long time to put them all back together. I know there are still local roads closed or partially so because of damage. Like Dugway Road in Richmond, for instance, or the southbound off ramp at Interstate 89 Exit 18 in Georgia.

This bad weather will just make the job harder, and make it take longer.

It's not like everybody's cold. Around normally frigid Anchorage, Alaska, it's been such a warm late autumn that a few trees and bushes are trying to bud like they do in the spring. And already hot Miami suffered through its hottest September, October and first week of November on record.

A Remarkably Early Winter Coming To Vermont. Starting Thursday

My yard in St. Albans, Vermont buried in very early season snows
last November. For the second year in a row, winter will strike early
and hard in Vermont in November. Starting Thursday. 

Today, I'm going to whine about the Vermont weather, even though I fully understand that whining won't change a damn thing about the forecast.

November isn't really known for its beautiful weather in the North Country. Everybody realizes that, certainly including me.

Still, despite brief bouts of snow and cold,  I am almost always count on being able to finish buttoning up the yard for winter until about Thanksgiving or so.  Some years, it's a little earlier than that, but I can deal.

This year, winter is starting ridiculously early.   Like Thursday.

This won't be one of those brief bouts of wintry weather we get between periods of warmish weather this time of year. It's going to stick around.  Possibly until April, worst case scenario. Which means outdoor stuff and storm cleanup that needs to be done won't get done.

I don't think I remember an earlier onset to winter than this.  I thought last November, with big early snows was bad. This year is ridiculous.

It's possible there might still be a break in late November or December, you never know.  I'll get to that in a moment, but let's get into the specifics for the next few days.

A cold front is coming through today and this evening with a few rain showers and snowflakes on the highest mountain peaks. No biggie. Tomorrow will be chilly, with temperatures near 40. Again, not a crisis for this time of year.

Then, a powerhouse of a cold front will come through Thursday. A storrm will form along the front and move northeastward somewhere along the New England coast. This is a perfect setup for a snowstorm.

True, as Vermont snowstorms go, this won't be a blockbuster, but it will be a shock to the system. Thursday afternoon and  night, as it gets colder and colder, snow levels will drop lower and lower down the mountain slopes until it reaches the valleys.

With every storm, it's still not clear how much snow will fall in any given place.  If enough warm air remains in place, it's possible there won't be any accumulation in the warmest spots, like the lower Connecticut River Valley and perhaps the southern Champlain Valley, so says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

For now, the NWS is going with one to four inches of snow in the valleys, three to six inches in the mid and high elevations and six to nine inches on the mountain peaks.

Expect a snowy, icy, yucky trip to work Friday morning.

Early November snowstorms tend to melt away quickly, but not this time.  It'll stay cold, so there will only be a little thawing during the days in the valleys Friday through Sunday. I suppose if you're a skier, this is terrific news. The Vermont ski industry is certainly going to start their season with a bang.

The "warmest" day for the next week to ten days will be Sunday. Valley highs ahead of the next Arctic front will get into the mid 30s to low 40s. That's still chillier than normal for this time of year.

That next Arctic front coming through Sunday night will be a beast. Much of the eastern half of the nation will see near record cold with this early next week. That includes us here in Vermont. Record lows Monday and Tuesday in Burlington are in the mid-teens, and there's an excellent chance it will get that cold.

It's still unclear how much additional snow we'll get with that Arctic blast that starts Sunday, but I'm sure we'll get at least a little.

Cold, wintry air will linger until the end of next week at least. There are signs of more Arctic outbreaks following after that, but of course, that's very uncertain. Long range forecasts are always iffy.

Off The Rails Weather Update: Big CA Power Outages, Plains Blizzard, Northeast Blast

A high risk of wildfires in California today has prompted
the state's biggest utility to cut power to large areas
so that winds don't create arcing power lines that
would set dangerous fires. 

This is another one of those weeks when big sections of the United States are getting off-the-rails weather.

The Upper Plains and parts of the Rockies are set up for a big winter storm and single digit temperatures (in October!) Coastal New England and parts of the Middle Atlantic States are gearing up for a big hit by an odd, really strong ocean storm. And California is set for huge power failures. The utilities are shutting off the juice to prevent arcing power lines and wildfires as winds there pick up.  

Once again, we here in Vermont are pretty much escaping all this drama, as we will be blessed with seasonable temperatures, some sun, especially north and very little rain.

Let's start with California:

Pacific Gas and Electric has been blamed for some devastating, deadly wildfires in California in recent years, as the Weather Channel reports. This includes the extreme fire that pretty much leveled the town of Paradise, California and killed 86 people last year.

In parts of northern and central California, extremely critical fire weather conditions are forecast later today, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook. 

Winds could gust as high as 60 mph, and relative humidities are forecast to drop into the single digits. If a power line snaps in the wind and arcs and sparks, you have another big wildfire on your hands.

PG&E plans to cut power to as many as 800,000 homes and businesses in the fire risk region, and some of these outages might last for days. If there's no juice flowing in the lines and they snap in the wind, nothing bad will happen, goes the logic.

The danger of wildfires will continue Thursday in northern and central California, and ramp up in southern California, too. leading to the risk of more precautionary power outages.

PLAINS SNOW/COLD

Heavy, wet snow caused a lot of tree damage in Spokane, Washington
overnight. Photo by Liz Kishimoto/Spokesman-Review

As expected that winter storm is cranking up in the Rocky Mountains and northern Plains.  Parts of North Dakota could see close to two feet of snow out of this, which is incredible for mid-October.

A huge area of the nation, especially for October, is under winter storm warnings and watches. These extend from western Montana to northwest Minnesota and south to the northwestern corner of Nebraska.

The storm's cold front will be impressive as it crosses the Plains and upper Midwest.  I can foresee temperatures dropping by 20 or 30 degrees in an hour or so in some places.

Denver, Colorado won't get much snow out of this. But after 80 degree temperatures today, readings could be as low as 10 degrees Thursday night. But by Saturday, the temperature in Denver should pop back up to the low 60s.  Talk about whiplash weather!

The storm extended west as far as Spokane, Washington, where more than 3 inches of wet, heavy snow falling on trees still holding on to their leaves caused lots of power failures.

The snowstorm is also socking the southern Plains of Canada as well. In all areas hit by this storm, there are going to be a lot of livestock and crop losses.

NEW ENGLAND STORM

Thank goodness this long-anticipated ocean storm won't hug the coast but stay offshore. Otherwise, it would be a disastrous storm.

Even so, with the soon-to-be-huge, intense storm spinning out there offshore, it's destined to cause a lot of headaches, especially on Cape Cod and the Islands, parts of Long Island and maybe coastal New Jersey, too.

They've already shut down the ferry to Block Island, Rhode Island in anticipation of gale force winds and high seas.

Up to eight inches of rain might fall on southeastern Massachusetts, where flood watches, coastal flood watches and high wind warnings are in effect.

Extreme Weather Weekend: Cat 5 Lorenzo, Huge Western Snows, Storms, California Twister?

Giant Hurricane Lorenzo in the central Atlantic
Ocean this morning. 

Time to update one of those weekend when the weather across the nation and parts of the world have once again kind of gone off the rails.

There's a couple videos at the bottom of this post.

So let's get going:

WILD HURRICANE LORENZO

Yesterday, I joked a little about Hurricane Lorenzo, in relation to ex-tropical storm Karen. But Hurricane Lorenzo really wowed the weather world last night.

Lorenzo is way out over the central Atlantic, and is no threat to land with the very notable exception of the Azores, which are really under the gun from this storm.

At the end of the week, Lorenzo was a high-end category 4 hurricane, and it was arguably the furthest east in the Atlantic Ocean for such a strong storm. Water temperatures are usually cooler in the eastern half of the Atlantic Ocean than in the western  half, at least in the northern hemisphere.

That means those eastern hurricanes tend not to get as strong as those more to the west, since hurricanes crave the warmest water possible to thrive.

Last night, Lorenzo pulled a fast one on everybody. It was expected to slowly weaken as it moved northward over the open water. And it was weakening Friday night and the first half of Saturday.

Lare Saturday night, though, Lorenzo blew up into a category 5 monster with 160 mph sustained winds. Luckily it wasn't near land. This is easily the strongest hurricane on record in the eastern half of the Atlantic. Also the furthest north we've seen a category 5 hurricane.

Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) posted this map. The dot in blue
is where Category 5 Hurricane Lorenzo was. The red dots
are where all other Category 5 hurricanes developed. You
can see ho far east Lorenzo is

As Dennis Mersereau notes in Forbes, and citing meteorologist Eric Blake, the previous record for the furthest east Category 5 was Hurricane Hugo in 1989, which was a good 600 miles west of Lorenzo's position. (Mersereau is @wxdam on Twitter.)

A number of weather experts I've seen on line say this could easily be another sign of climate change. The water in the eastern Atlantic is now warmer than it used to be decades ago, so this region can support more intense storms.

There certainly has been an uptick in unusually strong Atlantic hurricanes in recent years. As Mersereau writes:

"Lorenzo is the second category five hurricane we've seen in the Atlantic Ocean so far this year, and the sixth such storm to form in the Atlantic in the last four years."

As Lorenzo moves north into cooler waters, it will finally weaken and transform into a regular mid-latitude storm. It could bring strong winds and heavy rain to the British Isles toward the end of the week, we'll have to wait and see.

ROCKIES SNOW

A lovely September day in Choteau, Montana Saturday

It usually snows in the northern Rocky Mountains in September, but not like this!

Some areas, especially in the mountains, can expect a good three feet of snow by the time things taper off Monday night or Tuesday.

Since leaves are still on the trees in many areas, the heavy wet snow is causing a lot of damage to forests, street trees and powerlines. Livestock is suffering and crops are being ruined.

According to meteorologist Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman on Twitter), Great Falls, Montana has 9.7 inches of snow Saturday. That's the snowiest September day on record there. It also would have been the snowiest October day in Great Falls. Erman said you'd have to go to November 8, 2012 to find a snowier day in Great Falls.

Over in Spokane, Washington, they had their first September snowfall since 1926. And it was quite a bit considering the season - 1.9 inches.

Cut Bank, Montana has been snowy, with temperatures in the upper 20s and wind chills in the lower teens since Saturday morning.  That would be rather unpleasant by January standards here in Vermont.

CALIFORNIA SUPERCELL

A relatively rare supercell thunderstorm developed about midway between San Francisco and Sacramento, California Saturday evening. It produced a possible tornado near Davis, and dumped several inches of hail on one area, including a stretch of major highway.

There was also a smattering of severe storms in the mid-Atlantic states, and in and around Missouri yesterday. One especially strong storm hit a Christian music festival in Pennsylvania Saturday, blowing tents around and injuring six people.

RECORD HEAT

Intense heat continued in the Southeast Saturday, with many more records being set.  This state of affairs will continue into the middle of the week.  I expect several cities in the East and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to set all-time records for the month of October.

Several cities in the Southeast and Deep South are having their hottest September on record.

VERMONT IMPACTS

The Green Mountain State will mostly miss the wild weather over the next couple of days. But things will still be interesting. And very changeable.

Yesterday actually felt humid in Vermont ahead of a cold front. Now that front has gone by, and it's cool and sunny. It's going to be a gorgous Sunday for leaf peepers (though most places aren't at peak yet.)  Look out tonight, as there will be scattered frost around, especially away from Lake Champlain.

After another nice day Monday, a warm front will come in with some rains for Tuesday. If skies clear enough briefly before a cold front approaches, highs in some parts of Vermont could top 80 degrees

It appears this cold front will give us a good slug of rain especially Wednesday.

Then it will cool down dramatically. It won't be anything too out of the ordinary for October, but it will come as a shock because it's been rather mild lately. By the end of the week and next weekend, highs will only be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.  A hard freeze is beginning to look like a fairly good bet next weekend. It could even snow on the mountain peaks.

Yeah, I just said the "s" word.

Some videos:

Possible tornado in Davis, California Saturday:



Incredible amounts of hail on a highway near Davis, California Saturday after a tornado-warned
supercell thunderstorm went by:



And a bit of time spent outdoors in Montana Saturday:

Huge, Wet Vermont Snowstorm To Bring Arduous Cleanup, Increases Flood Threat

Here we go again. Digging out from another foot of wet, heavy snow
in St. Albans, Vermont. Seems that's all I ever do with my life in
the past couple years - just constantly dig out from giant,
 wet cemet snowstorms 

UPDATE 9 a.m. SATURDAY:

Some really spectacular snow totals have come in to the National Weather Service in Burlington as of 9 a.m.:

26 inches new was reported in Morgan, 25 inches in Lyndonville, 24 inches Danville and Walden.

There's lots of reports of 12-20 inches of new snow.

The high water content of this snow really makes this in many parts of Vermont one of the most significant late season snows on record.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

The big snowstorm in Vermont will mercifully end today, but the heavy, wet snow will be backbreaking to clean up especially areas away from the deepest valleys.

Many of us, including me here in St. Albans, Vermont, got at least a foot of snow.

As of 5:30 a.m. it was an even foot deep at my house, on a hill away from Lake Champlain in St. Albans. And it was still snowing.

Which means the never-ending winter, when a snow cover was established in early to mid November, will go on for weeks more, as it will take a long time for this to melt.

As of early morning, no new summaries had come out yet of storm totals in Vermont since last evening. I'm sure there will be some pretty amazing numbers in the mountains. As of last evening, there had already been 18 inches of new snow in East Kirby, Cabot and Walden, Vermont.

More than a foot had fallen by 7 p.m. last evening in many towns at elevations of above 1,000 feet in northern Vermont. In many of those towns, it kept snowing all night. More than 2,000 people remained without power early this morning, mostly in northwestern Vermont where the snow really hit overnight.

Roadways, needless to say, are very bad in areas where it's still snowing. The western slopes of the Green Mountains and eastern parts of Franklin, Chittenden and Addison counties are particularly bad.

Very little of the snow will melt this afternoon, as it will stay cold even as the sun comes out. A brief thaw tomorrow won't get rid of much, and then it will be wintry cold again Monday, Tuesday and into Wednesday before it finally warms up.

Which brings us to something I alluded to as the storm began.  A flood threat. Warmer air will finally, at least temporarily reach us late in the week.  If the warmth lasts and increases, and then it rains, it will be real trouble.

This storm had a LOT of what would have been rain with it. Most places in Vermont got more than the equivalent of an inch of rain. Some places got the equivalent of two inches. As I mentioned on Thursday, there was already four to eight inches of rain locked in the snow pack at mid and higher elevations in and around Vermont, and up to ten inches of "rain" on the peaks.

This storm added one to as much as three inches of "rain" to the snow pack that will eventually have to melt. In the warmer valleys where rain fell during the first half of the storm, the downpours soaked the ground even more and created some runoff.

The bright side is after today there will be very little precipitation in Vermont through this coming Friday, but then, not much of the snow will have melted by then, especially in mid and high elevations.

If April turns out to be warm, stormy and wet, there is definitely the risk of at least some flooding. A worst case scenario is a storm in early to mid April that brings a surge of very warm, moist air and one to three inches of rain would cause serious flooding.

I don't see anything like that in the cards now, which is good. And, if we get an orderly melt, with lots of dry days, warm afternoons and chilly nights - perfect for surgaring - things won't be that bad at all.

Lake Champlain's level is already a little above normal - right around 97 feet above sea level as of yesterday.  Minor flood stage is 100 feet.

I'm almost sure the lake will reach minor flood stage. Just over 100 feet will cause minor beach erosion and flood the lowest lying shoreline places, like Perkins Pier in Burlington. However, a minor spring flood on Lake Champlain is actually a good thing. It's a natural cycle that keeps the ecosystem healthy.

If Lake Champlain flooding reaches 101 feet you start to get some real shoreline damage. I see that as possible this year but at this point rather unlikely.

We are also NOT in the same situation as 2011, when Lake Champlain eventually rose to a record crest of around 103 feet above sea level, causing millions of dollars in flood damage. Unless there is incredible, record rainfall between now and mid-May, we won't get close to that level of disaster.

I just don't see that happening.

In the meantime, for those of us who got clobbered by this storm, happy digging!

Yet Another Overperforming Snowstorm Socking Vermont, Surrounding Areas

A long line of cars slogs through heavy, wet snow at Exit 19 of
Interstate 89 in St. Albans late this afternoon. 

Well, this is certainly turning into a doozy of a snowstorm for Vermont and adjacent areas, isn't it.

The first half of the storm, roughly into early afternoon, really hit east facing slopes of the Green Mountains.

Some areas definitely got more snow than expected. Some examples: Marshfield reported 16 inches, Walden, 15 inches, Moretown, 14 inches.

That's a lot of snow.

While it is still snowing along those eastern slopes, it's coming down lighter now. And it probably won't get particularly heavy in those places overnight.

There will be more accumulation there, but it won't pile up nearly as fast as it did earlier today.  The mountain summits, which got tons of snow the first half of today, will continue to pile it up fast, so we'll see some pretty amazing totals up there.

We're now in the second half of the snowstorm,  The wind has shifted and increased from the north and northwest, so it's the western slopes of the Green Mountains that are getting clobbered. Road conditions deteriorated fast late this afternoon in the Champlain Valley as the snow finally started to accumulate.

For several hours at least this evening, the snow will come down at a good clip even in the Champlain Valley. Elevation will still be a factor:

Forecasters think totals will range from as little as three inches along the immediate shore of Lake Champlain, to six inches or so a few hundred feet higher in elevation and a few miles inland from the lake, to a foot or more along the western slopes well east of Burlington -- towns like Underhill, Jericho, Huntington, Bakersfield, East Enosburg, all those types of places.

These are storm totals, taking into account what already fell plus what's expected to accumulate.

Who knows, the way this storm has been behaving, there might be more surprises with even deeper snow in these communities. After all, right along the western slopes, most forecasters think the snow will keep going into Saturday morning.

Winter storm warning have been extended westward to include all of Franklin and Chittenden Counties.

Basically, don't travel anywhere tonight. Also postpone travel until Saturday afternoon, when things will have definitely improved.

It's been bad enough all day. NECN reports roughly 100 crashes and slide offs in Vermont during the day. This includes a fatal crash on Vermont 22A and several multi-vehicle pileups. Interstate 89 near Montpelier was impassable for a time due to crashes.

Power failures with the heavy, wet snow have been a problem in some areas all day. At last check, around 6 p.m. there were about 1,250 homes and businessses without power across Vermont.

I have a feeling these numbers will go up through the evening as the heavy wet snow really starts to pile up in populated areas of Franklin, Chittenden and Addison counties. Gusty winds now blowing aren't helping. If anything, those winds will increase overnight.

At least the snow will turn more powdery as we go through the night, so the chances of further heavy, wet accumulations will go down.

It's still supposed to be cold Saturday. After a mild-ish Sunday, it will be cold again Monday and Tuesday. The late week still promises to turn at least somewhat warmer. Long range forecasts are iffy, but many forecasters are dangling the prospect of highs in the 50s a week from today.

I'll believe it when I see it.

Thursday Evening Update: Fine Tuning Messy Vermont Winter Storm Forecast

The National Weather Service in South Burlington updated
their snow forecast map this afternoon. More of the area would
get more than six inches of snow than in the earlier map.
(Yellow is six inches of more. Dark orange and red is over a foot.
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, and surrounding NWS offices, have spent this cloudy Thursday afternoon fine-tuning their forecasts for this messy winter storm that's coming in later tonight. It will last into Saturday, with a lull of sorts Friday afternoon.

(Pardon any typos: I had to crank this one out fast because of a busy evening schedule.)

What follows is how the National Weather Service thinks this will play out. But remember, temperatures are marginal, so there is still a bust potential.

There might be more snow than expected, or less, depending upon if the temperature during much of this thing is a degree or two warmer or colder than expected.

The nor'easter was soaking New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland and environs with a soaking, flood-threat rain late this afternoon. The leading edge of the precipitation was also approaching southern Vermont around 4 p.m. today.

The precipitation will overspread the area tonight, and that's when it gets tricky. It'll be snow in the upper elevations. With that in mind, there's a winter storm warning for the entire Green Mountain chain, the Northeast Kingdom, parts of north-central Vermont and the Adirondacks.

Snow there late tonight and early Friday will come down hard, and the roads will get very nasty very fast. Elsewhere, it looks like a rain/snow mix, trending to snow in many areas early Friday morning.

When the precipitation comes down the hardest early Friday, that's when the first half of this one-two punch storm will most likely bring snow, even in the Champlain Valley. It's unclear if it will go to all snow or a mix everywhere in the Champlain Valley, but I'm thinking at least some accumulationg snow.

To be safe, expect a tricky Friday morning commute pretty much everywhere. Wouldn't you know, the worst and heaviest snow looks like it wants to come through perfectly for the morning commute.

There is a winter weather advisory for the valleys late tonight through Saturday to cover the periods of snow.

It looks like there will be something of a lull in the precipitation during the later morning and afternoon Friday. There still will be light rain and snow around. Some areas that will have had a burst of snow early Friday will go over to light rain, but the higher elevations will stay snow.

A second moderate to locally heavy precipitation will come in after dark Friday night and continue into Saturday. The mountains will continue to pick up snow. Pretty much everybody that will see some rain Friday will go over to snow.

As it looks now - again this could easily change - another one to three inches of snow could accumulate in the Champlain Valley with much more the higher up you go.  If you can postpone travel plans until Saturday afternoon, do that.

Total accumulations look like they will be really impressive in the northern and central Adirondacks with 12 to 18 inches expected. The high elevations of the Green Mountains, especialluy north, look to have something similar.

Mid elevations, including places like Montpelier, Barre, Morrisville and the valley floor in Stowe could get as much as four to eight inches out of this storm. The Champlain Valley perhaps will get two to six inches total, the most north toward St. Albans.

Much of this snow will be wet, and strong winds will develop, so there remains a risk of power failures with this.

Snow will taper off Saturday and some sun might break out in the mid and late afternoon. Don't expect much melting, though as temperatures stay at or below freezing for most of us with a gusty cold northwest wind.

Sunday looks awesome for winter sports with that fresh, deep snow cover in the mountains. Highs then will reach the 40s in the valleys and 30s in the mountains under sunny skies.

It still looks like more snow showers, then mid-winter cold Monday and Tuesday - highs below freezing again for most of us. A warming trend looks like it might start midweek. Fingers crossed!

Snowstorm On Track To Hit Vermont, Surrounding Areas, Especially Mountains

Once again, here's that ever-present snow forecast map from
the National Weather Service in South Burlington, VT.
Click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see.
Yellow areas are forecast to get at least six inches of new snow.
The darkest shades of orange and red could see a foot.
As always, this forecast is subject to change. 

It's been a fairly mild morning around much of Vermont. Here in St. Albans, Vermont it's been in the low 40s, the smell of mud and boiling maple sap is in the air.

Spring, right?

Not so fast. Yesterday, when I said there's a snowy interruption to spring, I meant it, and that forecast hasn't changed. Most of us should get ready for at least some snow between tonight and Saturday afternoon.

Some of us, especially if you're in the higher elevations, could get lots of it.

I'll go over expected amounts in a bit, but do understand there's an extremely high bust potential here. Temperatures through much of the storm, especially tonight and through the day Friday, will be marginal enough where it could go either way between rain and snow.

That means for most of Vermont outside the higher elevations, if it's just one to three degrees cooler than expected, we'll get a lot more snow than forecast. If it's a couple degrees warmer than forecast, there will be less snow.

On top of that, the second half of the storm will feature a windflow that will bring heavier snow to the western slopes of Green Mountains, the summits and a good part of the rest of northern Vermont north of Route 2, away from Lake Champlain and other deeper valley floors.

The end result will be a wide range of snow totals from this storm in Vermont, New York and New Hampshire. Here's the current thinking, with an enormous assist from the National Weather Service in South Burlington. 

For instance, we can probably expect anywhere from one to 20 inches of new snow, depending upon where you are in Vermont. OK, we should narrow that down.

The least amount of snow looks like it will be in the lower Connecticut River Valley below White River Junction. There, it will probably be two inches or less.

Almost everywhere else is a wildcard. If things go according to plan - and chances are they won't - the Champlain Valley and the lowlands of Rutland and Bennington Counties will get off with only maybe three inches of snow, give or take. (Again, a couple degrees colder and these areas get into the snowstorm game.)

The northern Champlain Valley, say around St. Albans, and north-central Vermont, say around Montpelier, Barre and Northfield are a real tossup. These communities might get as little as three inches of snow or as much as 10 inches.

In fact, different elevations in the same town will have wildly varying amounts of snow. I can see a possible scenario out of this where, for instance, St. Albans gets an inch of snow on the shore of St. Albans Bay and eight inches atop St. Albans Hill. That's a change in elevation of only about 800 feet.

The mountains, of course, will have mostly snow out of this. Some of the ski areas in central and northern Vermont could easily get a foot or more of snow.  The ski areas look like they will stay open a while longer, huh?

The Adirondacks will make out like a bandit with this storm, too. The way it looks now, many areas getting a solid foot of snow from this storm. Central New York could get six inches of wet snow, too. Coastal areas will get a quick bout of heavy rain. It was already raining hard in places like New Jersey this morning from this storm, and flood watches are up for that neck of the woods.

Back here in Vermont, the bulk of the snow will come down while temperatures are not far from 32 degrees. That means the snow will be wet and heavy.  That, combined with the fact winds will become strong from the northwest later Friday night and Saturday, raises the risk of power failures.

The snow will taper off Saturday, starting in southern valleys in the early morning and reaching the northern mountains by nightfall or thereabouts. It will be quite wintry Saturday, with snow showers for many areas, blowing snow and temperatures staying near or below freezing.

After a seasonable day Sunday (40s), it will get wintry cold again early next week with maybe an inch or two of new snow in spots Sunday night and Monday with the cold front. It might start to warm up again late next week. (I'll believe it when I see it.)

There does seem to be an increased risk of spring flooding in and around Vermont with this situation. True, there's not much snow left in the valleys, at least before this upcoming storm, but that's deceptive.

The snow is one to two feet deep in the mid-elevations. For example, Greensboro had 24 inches on the ground this morning and Waterbury had 20 inches. The amount of water locked in this snow is higher than you'd expect, with perhaps the equivalent of four to eight inches of rain. 

Go up in elevation just a bit further to 3,000 feet or so and there's the equivalent of 10 inches of rain that has to run down from the mountains. This storm will add to these totals, for sure.

The spring thaw is delayed further by the cold early next week. In a little more than a week, we'll be in to the very end of March and April will dawn. By then, there's the risk it could get quite warm. There could also be a nice big rain storm, who knows? If that happens, flooding would be a serious threat around the Green Mountain State.

That's by no means guaranteed, but it's something to watch.

Big New Storm This Weekend: Possible More Tornadoes, Plains Snow, Future Floods?

The risk of tornadoes in the South will ramp up again this weekend,
and everybody is hoping things won't get as bad as they
did in Alabama last Sunday. 

It's time to start talking about a big new storm set to affect the United States, mostly this upcoming weekend.

At least to me, the signs that this might be another doozy came earlier this week, when the makings of this storm came ashore in southern California and unleased a spectacular lightning display that residents say they haven't seen in years.

Once this storm emerges into the Plains, it will unleash the risk of severe thunderstorms and possibly tornadoes, heavy snow in parts of the Plains, strong winds and flooding.

I'll break down all the risks in different parts of the nation first, then I'll get into the effects this storm might have in Vermont. Spoiler: Messy, but no disaster in the Green Mountain State.

TORNADOES

An early read on another severe weather outbreak. This is subject
to change, but the yellow area is most prone to severe
thunderstorms and possible tornadoes Saturday. 

Tornado season in the United States is young, but we've already had enough, given the swarm of tornadoes in the Southeast last Sunday that killed 23 people and caused widespread destruction.

Unfortunately, a broad area of the nation is prone to severe storms and possible tornadoes with this storm.

The details of exactly how this will play out are still unclear. After all, the bulk of the severe weather won't hit until Saturday.

This means we don't know where the focus on the most intense storms might be. Also, nobody is yet sure now widespread or intense any storms become, and whether the worst of the storms and potential tornadoes will hit populated areas.

Broadly, the risk of severe thunderstorms covers the lower Mississippi Valley from southern Illinois. States included in this risk area include Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, southern Missouri and parts of Louisiana.

Note that some of these states were hard hit last Sunday. The severe risk will continue eastward to a strip along the coastal Southeast from the Florida panhandle to North Carolina.

A second, similar storm expected during the middle of next week could resume this tornado and severe storm risk in the same areas I've just discussed.

SNOW

The upper Plains have had a rough six weeks of winter, and it's not going to change any time soon. A relatively weak disturbance is dumping some snow on the central and northern Plains. This storm promises to dump a lot more snow in the Dakotas, a good chunk of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Winter storm watches are already up for these areas. 

These areas are already deep in snow from a very snowy February. The water content of this snow is high, and this storm is expected to be on the dense side as well. Plus there's that other storm next week I mentioned that could deposit a lot more snow on the same region. It's also going to stay generally cold in this area through much of this month.

All this means there's a real flood threat. All that snow has to melt and go somewhere. The longer we wait for a spring warm up, the more likely that warm up will come suddenly with a spike to very toasty temperatures. The result in that case would be an abrupt snow melt and some serious flooding.  The Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and a few other places in this neck of the woods are bracing for a potentially dangerous spring flood season.

Speaking of floods......

FLOODING

Serious flooding occurred last month in and near Tennessee during the wettest February on record. Flood waters have yet to fully recede, and this upcoming storm promises more heavy rain. The saturated soil can't take it so there's a real risk of renewed flooding in this region by Sunday. Worse, some early indications are that the storm next week might be even wetter than the one this weekend.

It seems like the Tennessee valley will dry out.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Josh from Montgomery, Vermont posted
this photographic proof that it
was friggin' cold there this morning.

As has been the case during the winter, the upcoming storm promises a mixed bag of precipitation for the Green Mountain State.

Also, as you've surely noticed, it's pretty damn cold out there today, especially for this time of year. It only got to 17 degrees for a "high" in Burlington yesterday, and most of us were within a few degrees either side of zero this morning. Some of the colder spots were in the minus teens.

The good news is this is very, very likely the coldest temperatures we'll see until next winter. That's not to say winter weather is over for the season, not by a long shot. But the worst has passed.

After yet another unseasonably chilly day today and another frigid morning tomorrow, it'll start to warm up.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s, depending upon where you are in Vermont, so that's only slightly cooler than average.  Combined with those temperatures, the sun will erode all those snowbanks out there a little bit.

Then the storminess arrives Saturday night. As it seems to always do, it'll start with a period of snow, then go over to a mix Sunday morning before turning to a light rain Sunday.

For us, this looks like it will be no blockbuster. Early hints are that there will be perhaps an inch of snow in the Champlain Valley and up to three or four in the mountains. The ice won't amount to too much, either, though freezing drizzle might linger much of the day Sunday east of the Green Mountains.

West of the Green Mountains, Sunday will be warm enough to thaw. But it won't be that warm - with highs near 40 - and any rain that falls seems like it will be light. The bottom line is I don't think we have much to worry about in the way of flooding with this one.

A cold front sweeps through Sunday night with snow showers, mostly in the mountains. Then it's more or less seasonable around here during the middle of next week ahead of the next storm.