Nation's Flash Flood Season Is In Full Swing

A flash flood near St. Albans, Vermont in 2014.  A stalled thunderstorm
caused this one. 

Now that we are full on into summer, the peak of severe thunderstorm season has passed, but we're into what I regard as peak flash flood season.

We can and do often get severe storms and tornadoes in the United States through the summer. But big outbreaks of severe weather are now less common.  That's because there are no - or at least few - big storm systems with immense clashes of cold and hot/humid air to generate tornado barrages.

Instead, smaller weather fronts and weak low pressure areas meander sluggishly, or sometimes not move at all through much of the rest of summer.

There's usually plenty of very humid air to work with around these weak, slow moving systems. The result is torrential downpours.

If these downpours don't last super long, this is a good thing, as it keeps crops and gardens watered down, and tamps down the risk of wildfires. Often, though, you can get several inches of rain in just a couple hours. And these downpours sometimes tend to linger in one place, compounding the trouble.

Many of the culprits behind these flash floods, especially in the middle of the nation, are caused by something called Mesoscale Convective Systems, or MCS's. 

These are huge complexes of thunderstorms that regularly develop late in the day somewhere in the Plains or Midwest and continue on all night.

These things are very common in the summer and all things considered, have a lot of benefits. They keep the corn belt well watered during the critical growing season.

Some of the storms are really intense in these MCS's though. They can dump tremendous amounts of rain in a short period of time and cause almost daily pockets of flash flooding in the summer.

Yesterday, an MCS caused flash flooding east of St. Paul, Minnesota.  This morning, one is causing flash floods in Illinois. 

Other areas of flash flooding could develop today and tomorrow in parts of North Dakota, Kentucky,  and mountainous areas of Idaho and western Montana.  Flash flood risks are usually scattered in random fashion like this during the summer in the United States.

Slow moving cold or warm fronts, or stationary fronts, can also unleash flash floods. In these cases, thunderstorms move along the same path, one after another, over the same area like boxcars passing by on train tracks.

These are called training storms literally because they resemble a train moving down the tracks.

Weak low pressure systems can also cause cause flash flooding by generating showers and thunderstorms rotating over the same area. Early season tropical storms can cause similar problems.

Even areas that are drier than normal - and in drought - are prone to flash flooding this time of year. If it rains hard enough, creeks, streams and river can become overwhelmed with runoff, as can city streets where the storm drains can't handle the deluge.

Most of Vermont is now in drought or at least abnormally dry.  But an area of thunderstorms prompted flood advisories in some sections of southeastern Vermont yesterday.  And there's a marginal risk - very slight - of flash flooding today in much of Vermont today and tomorrow due to the risk of slow moving storms.

As is typical with most flash floods, any risk in Vermont would be limited to very localized areas, while surrounding areas just a few miles away stay relatively dry.

Climate change is probably worsening flash floods and making them more frequent.  A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor.  That means more water is available for downpours when something triggers a storm, such as a stalled front or MCS.

The resulting downpours are heavier than they otherwise would be, so the flooding is worse. And more frequent.

Vermont, like many mountainous areas, is especially prone to flash floods because a stalled thunderstorm over the Green Montains can send torrents of water down the slopes, ripping away roads, bridges and sometimes houses.

Also, our small urban areas can become flash flood zones during heavy thunderstorms.  Some nasty ones have happened in Burlington in July, 2012 and in Rutland in 2009.

At least some localized flash flooding happens in Vermont almost every year. Even dry ones.

So while we pray for continued rains this dry summer, let's just hope it won't be too much of a good thing.

Rain Winners And Losers Continue In New England

A nice thunderstorm Sunday in the Adirondacks looms over homes in
Burlington, Vermont's Old North End, promising rain in parched
backyard gardens there. Alas the storm dissipated on approach
to Burlington, so only sprinkles hit those gardens 

The dry weather continues in New England, despite some local downpours that went way over the top in a few places on Sunday.

Thunderstorms and downpours sprouted all over the place, as expected, on Sunday.  While some towns got oodles of needed rain, other places went dry. Or only got a sprinkle.

A nice looking thunderstorm with heavy rain approached dusty Burlington, Vermont Sunday afternoon, but of course it dissipated on its way to town.

Only 0.03 inches of rain fell there Sunday. So far in June, Burlington is one of the really dry places with only 0.74 inches in June through yesterday. There should have been 3.44 inches by now.

Unless some great rains fall today and/or tomorrow, this will be one of Burlington's driest Junes on record.

Here in St. Albans, Vermont, I got about a quarter inch of rain overnight Saturday night, but just sprinkles during the day.

Elsewhere, a handful of places got bullseyed. More than an inch of rain fell around Stowe, and good chunks of Rutland and Windsor counties had nearly an inch of rainfall.

In Southern New England, a few places got too much of a good thing.  Flash flooding after five inches of rain in a couple of hours forced evacuations at a Norwood, Massachusetts hospital.

Today, tomorrow and to an extent Wednesday will be rinse (for some) and repeat (for all) as that upper level low parks itself near us.

In much of Vermont, including here in St. Albans, it was awfully murky this morning with lots of fog and a little drizzle.  Some of that will lift today but it will remain cloudy. Enough sunlight and warmth will get through the clouds to trigger more showers, and maybe a thunderstorm or two, especially this afternoon.

The weird part of today's showers and storms is that here in Vermont, they will move slowly from east to west, opposite the usual direction summer showers and storms move.

This is because the upper level low is a bit to our south.  Wind around any storm in the northern hemisphere goes counterclockwise. Since we're north of the storm, winds are generally from the east, so that's the way the showers get pushed.

As noted, the rain today will be hit and miss, but the best chances for good downpours are in the Northeast Kingdom, with progressively lighter amounts, at least in most places, as you head west and south.

Overall, though, it will be kind of an unpleasant day for summer. Which is OK, we could use any rain we can get. Temperatures will stay on the cool side (upper 60s and low 70s for most of us), there will be some occasionally stiff north breezes, and don't count on much sun.

Again, I'm fine with that, as long as it really rains. And the cool breezes are a big improvement over the oppressive heat last week.

Tomorrow and Wednesday will bring more of the same, with perhaps a few more breaks of sun, and temperatures slightly warmer than today.

Loopy, Wrong-Way Weather Pattern Keeps Heat At Bay. For Now

It tried to rain Friday evening on my still dry back yard in St. Albans,
Vermont, but it only amounted to a trace before the setting sun
blasted through the clouds.  I still have a shot of some
showers over the next few days. 

We can safely report it's not that torrid in Vermont for a change.

True, it has been a bit warmer than normal the past four days or so, but certainly not to the extent of that huge heat wave last week.

Still, Saturday was the 12th day in a row in Burlington that got to at least 80 degrees, so that's still an ongoing warm streak if you ask me.

There were some fears that heat would come roaring back by sometimes early this week, but that won't be happening, thank goodness.  At least the heat is delayed some in returning.

Credit a rather loopy, wrong way weather pattern for that.

The loopy part is a cut-off storm in the upper levels of the atmosphere that is stalling over or near New England. It's just a pool of cool air aloft, with light winds circulating around and around in a counterclockwise loop.

The fact that the this upper level circulation has cold air with it many thousands of feet in the air means we're in for daily scattered showers and possible thunderstorms.  The contrast between the relatively warm air at the surface and the colder air way up there will encourage those tall, billowy clouds to form.  The tall, billowy clouds, of course, unleash those scattered rains.

We've been settling into a drought, so the type of rain that's in the forecast won't help nearly as much as a good steady soaker would. But we'll take what we can get.

A few storms today in southern Vermont, and especially southern New England, might be strong to severe. It's more likely that any thunderstorms that blossom in the north will be garden variety.

There will be winners and losers in this pattern. A few lucky spots will receive over an inch of rain between now and Wednesday because they'll keep getting hit by these daily showers. There will also be the unlucky ones, in which, by chance, the showers avoid those towns.  The drier spots will get a quarter inch or less of rain, which sucks.

The loopy low over us means daytime temperatures through Wednesday will be at, or just a wee bit cooler than average. Nighttimes will be at, or a wee bit warmer than average through the period.

This upper level low will probably get out of our hair by Thursday or so, and a squirt of hot air will try to come in.  Its' uncertain, but Thursday might end up being a little on the hot side.

However, that's where the wrong way weather comes in. A so called "back door" cold front is expected to come in from the northeast. (Cold fronts normally come in from the west or northwest, that's why I'm calling it a wrong way front.)

It won't exactly get cold by next weekend after the wrong way front comes through, but at least it won't be super, super hot.  We'll just get more normal  to slightly warmer than average temperatures then.

I don't mean to imply the cut off low over us, or the back door cold front are extremely unusual. They aren't. Both happen from time to time in the spring and summer, so we're not getting anything totally weird.

Despite the breaks from the heat and dryness, the overall weather pattern  favors hotter and drier than normal conditions over Vermont and most of the rest of New England into mid-July.  If true, it means that current drought conditions over the region will unfortunately only worsen.

June Is The New July In Vermont

A hot, steamy day in Burlington, Vermont in 2018.  In June
we've re-written the heat records of June in recent years. 

I noticed quite a June trend in recent years in the weather record books for Burlington, Vermont.

The last several years have totally transformed the listed record highs in the second half of June.

The National Weather Service has been keeping track of the weather in Burlington since the 1880a.  records.

Over the more than 100 years from around 1885 to 1994, the warmest it ever got in Burlington during June was 96 degrees.

Since 1994 just the last quarter century or so, it has gotten to 96 degrees in June at least another 11 times including twice last week.

And let's not even talk about the record for longest June heat wave - six days in a row - set just this past week.

We've almost totally re-written the record book for June highs since 1991. In the last 14 days of June, eight of the daily record highs have been set just since 2007.  All but one of the record highs in that period came after 1990.

We tied the record for the second hottest reading in Burlington with a high of 100 degrees on June 19,1995.  It was only the third day on record it had been 100 degrees in the Queen City

We still get record daily lows in Burlington, of course.  I did find a single recent daily record low in June -  a reading of 36 degrees on June 2, 2003. But other than that, I can't find a daily record low in June newer than one set on June 24, 1988 when it was 40 degrees.

Consistent with climate change, daily record highs have been exceeding record lows, though of course you can still get cold snaps in a warmer world.

By my quick count - and somebody can check this if they'd like - I see 29 daily record highs tied or broken in Burlington since July 1 2017 and just five record lows tied or broken.

We're not expecting any record highs or lows in the next few days, of course. But fasten your seat belts, we're sure to have more record warm episodes to come.

Lightning Bolt Traveled 440 Miles. I'm Not Making It Up

Map of a complex lightning bolt that extended over a distance of
440 miles in Brazil in 2018. 

Scientists confirmed a lightning bolt a couple years ago extended over 440 miles - roughly the distance between Washington DC and Boston.

As meteorologist Marshall Shepherd reports in Forbes, the bolt was up in the clouds amid a large thunderstorm complex over southern Brazil on October 31, 2018.

How's that for a Halloween spook?

The WMO also announced another weird lightning record.  On March 4, 2009, a single lightning flash over northern Argentina lasted an amazing 16.73 seconds.

Lightning detection and science is enjoying a heyday, Shepherd notes, as technology has allowed for more precise and extensive lightning observations, such as the two "megaflashes" in South America.

Aside from the gee whiz factor in these lightning records, the study of the flashes and megaflashes will help people and planners better understand  lightning as it relates to engineering and safety, Shepherd reports in Forbes. 

I'm thinking both record breaking lightning bolts were "anvil crawlers." We see them sometimes around here in Vermont but more commonly out in the Midwest and Plains.

Anvil crawlers are spectacular lightning bolts that move mostly horizontally across the anvil shaped tops of thunderstorms. You can watch them extend their reach further and further until the flash dies.

Usually, an individual anvil crawler is over within seconds. But as these new lightning records show, it can be more spectacular than that.

In any event, read the Forbes article. It's pretty cool.

OK, A Little Vermont Rain. That's A Start. More Coming?

I had to water my gardens way too early starting in May, shown here
and it looks like that state of affairs will continue. We got some rain
yesterday, and a little more is in the forecast, butI don't see anything
drought busting in the near future

The good news is that in parched, Burlington, Vermont, yesterday's rainfall just about doubled the amount that has fallen so far this month.

The bad news is that brings the month's total to just 0.70 so far, which is more than two inches on the light side.

Overall, Wednesday's rainfall was not impressive, but at least pretty much all of Vermont had a least a little wetting.

Generally less than a third of an inch fell in most places, but there was a nice little bullseye of nearly three quarters of an inch around Franklin County in northwest Vermont, where I live. A bit more rain likely fell after these observations were made Wednesday morning.

Looking ahead, for people who want a drought buster deluge, it's not in the cards. But at least there are decent chances of rain in the forecast.  We'll see if that pans out.

Today and Friday will be dry, aside from some isolated, light showers that won't amount to much of anything.

A relatively small storm coming in from the west for Saturday has a little oomph to it, so it has the potential to drop between a quarter and a half inch of rain, which would be nice.

This is one of those tricky systems to watch, because it can bring a package of surprisingly severe thunderstorms with it.  However, the expected track of this storm would take the severe weather south of us.

Instead, as it looks now at least, Saturday will really not be a nice summer day, with clouds, a little wind and frequent showers. Which to me, is great news for the soil moisture out there.

An upper level low is forecast to settle over us Sunday through Tuesday, giving us a decent chance of afternoo and evening showers all three days.  Again, these potential showers won't amount to a huge amount. However, like I keep saying, we'll take anything we can get at this point.

By the way, long range forecasts, always iffy I understand, call for dry, warm weather heading into early July.

What? No Vermont Desert Heat? Whatever Will We Do?

A brief but beautiful downpour out on my deck in St. Albans,
Vermont early this morning signals the end of that awful heat wave

Tuesday pretty much capped the longest and probably most intense June heat wave on record in Vermont's Champlain Valley.

The temperature reached 96 degrees in Burlington Tuesday for the second day in a row. That was enough to break the record high for the date of 93, last set in 1975.

To sum up the records set in this heat wave:

1. Longest June heat wave on record (six days of 90+).
2. Tie for second longest heat wave on record.
3. Now part of a four way tie for the most consective days of at least 94 degrees (four of them).
4. A tie with 1949 for the most days of 90 degree weather in June (seven of 'em).

Mercifully, the chances of another 90 degree day this month seem low, but not zero.  The next few days are going to be better than the last few, that's for sure.

A little bit of needed rain came with the arrival of somewhat cooler air this morning. Burlington had 0.21 inches of rain in just an hour dear;y today.  That's really not much, but still makes this the "wettest" day in a very parched June, 2020.

We're now suddenly in a somewhat cooler weather pattern, though temperatures should stay near or even a wee bit warmer than normal over the next several days.

That means highs mostly in the 75 to 85 degree range through early next week.  Some nights will drop into the 50s, giving us some decent sleeping weather for a change.

There's even hope that a storm system could give us a fairly decent shot of rain Saturday. That's not guaranteed yet, but it's reason for a little hope, anyway.

Of course, depending on how that Saturday system behaves and where it tracks, it also gives us a chance of severe storms. That prospect is even more uncertain than the chances of weekend rain, but it's something to watch.

Beyond early next week, the weather becomes really uncertain.  It'll be a weird weather pattern, with early indication of another cut off low setting up near the Northeast, and a heat ridge to our northwest in Canada.

What that means for us: God only knows at this point.

June Vermont Heat Busting All Kinds Of Records. Finally A Little Rain?

So close and yet so far. A thunderstorm juuusst missed my
parched gardens in St. Albans, Vermont last evening, leaving
me literally in the dust. Photo taken while I was watering
said garden as I watched the storm depart toward the east. 

The heat goes on in Vermont, at least for one more day today as records fall due to the persistent heat wave.

The temperature reached 96 degrees in Burlington Monday, exceeding the old record of 92 set in 1921.  It was the fifth consecutive day of 90+ heat, making it the longest such stretch on record for the month of June.

That record just got extended.

It was 90 degrees at noon in Burlington. That's six days in a row at 90 or above. That ties the record for the second longest heat wave on record in Burlington.

Today's 90 also means we tie with 1949 the record for the most 90 degree days in the month of June - which is seven.

Today's record high in Burlington is 93 degrees. We have a good shot of reaching that, too.  If it gets to 94 degrees today, we will be in a four way tie for the most consecutive days of 94 degree weather in Burlington, says WPTZ-TV meteorologist Ben Frechette.  That would be four consecutive days of such weather.

Atop Mount Mansfield, the high temperature yesterday was 83 degrees, shattering the old record of 75 degrees set in 1998.

A remarkable record has been set on Lake Champlain. The water temperature, as measured roughly seven feet below the surface was 79 degrees this morning, which is the hottest the lake water has been since they started keeping track in 1972.

Lake Champlain water temperature, by the way, usually peaks in August.

I'm theorizing a unique set of circumstances created this hot Lake Champlain water.  It's been dry, so cool river water has not been flowing in. More importantly, mainly clear skies have been sitting over the lake for days on end right around the Summer Solstice, which offers plenty of time for the sun to heat the water.

A record long heat wave striking right at Summer Solstice also helped. Probably an even more important factor is winds have been light winds for several days now. Strongest wind gusts over the past week have been under 20 mph, except in highly local areas that were near isolated thunderstorms

With a little more wind, clouds and somewhat cooler temperatures on the way, Lake Champlain water temperatures will fall somewhat, but stay unseasonably warm, is my guess.

Some relief is finally on the way, believe it or not, but it won't necessarily get chilly by any means.

As of late morning today, billowing thunderheads are already forming in the mountains.  Unlike yesterday, these nascent storms are actually moving, so the percentage of us who will get some rain today will be a wee bit higher today than in the past few.  Most of us will still miss out, I think.

Which is too bad. We really, really need the rain. Burlington, for instance, has just had a paltry 0.37 inches of rain this month.  They should have accumulated about 2.7 inches during June so far had this month been anywhere near normal.

It was frustrating yesterday here in St. Albans, when a thunderstorm formed near Plattsburgh, dumping a wondrous 1.3 inches of rain on that city.  The storm began to move slowly northeastward, right toward me.

But the storm collapsed on the way over, and all I got was a trace of rain and an outflow boundary that brought a brief, cool gust of wind of about 25 mph.

That outflow boundary created a new storm just to my east, which created a nice downpour there. That new storm headed east, away from St. Albans. For me, I was left in the dust, literally.

Although some of us have gotten some welcome rain in isolated storms - I see you @VermonsterWx - most of us have missed out just like me.

At least there's now hope of getting a little rain. If you avoid a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening, that welcome cold front will probably bring some more widespread showers and rumbles of thunder later tonight and Wednesday.

The timing of the front means there won't be a lot of rain, except for a handful of places that get bullseyed by a thunderstorm. But even a little will help. Generally we can expect a half inch of rain or less with this, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

We have a second chance of some watering this weekend. A warm front and little storm system has the potential to dump some decent rains on us Saturday. Don't hold your breath on this one, though. Currently, it's a big maybe.

Temperatures will fall to near normal for a few days, starting Wednesday afternoon and going into the weekend. (Highs in the 75-82 degree range).

I do see some worrying signs that it could turn hot again as June closes and July begins. That's also a big maybe.  It might well be not nearly as bad as the heat wave we just went through.  But judging by the weirdness of this weather year, you never know.

Caribbean Dust, And New England The New Miami-Dade

Same two views on the island of St Barthelemy, before
the dust, top, and during the current outbreak of
Sarahan dust.  Photos by Mirco Ferro, via Twitter

We've got a this n' that post for you today, as the weather always fascinates.  Or at least gets weird pretty often.

So let's get started

SAHARA DUST

Time to head to a nice Caribbean island to enjoy the dust storms.

Wait, what?

I'm exaggerating when I'm calling the current weather in the tropical Atlantic a dust storm, but it is pretty damn dusty down there.

A huge plume of dust from the Sahara Desert in Africa has blown westward and is crossing the Atlantic Ocean.

Visibility on some islands was down to three miles or so, a sharp contrast to the deep blue skies and long views that residents and vacationers are accustomed to.

The dust will reach the U.S. Gulf Coast this week, causing hazy skies, beautiful sunrises and sunsets and maybe suppressing thunderstorms.

This cloud of dust from the Sahara desert actually isn't all that weird. These plumes of dust cross the Atlantic frequently from late spring to early fall.  This episode is just more intense than usual. Some observers are saying this plume is the thickest in five decades.

In one important respect, the dust clouds are a good thing, even if it does reduce visibility and hurt people with pre-existing respiratory problems.

The dust clouds suppress the thunderstorms needed to give birth to tropical storms and hurricanes. Such dangerous storms are much less likely when there is a plume of Sahara dust over the Atlantic.

It's early in the hurricane season now, so there probably wouldn't have been any tropical storms anyway this week, but if more dust clouds form and move out over the Atlantic, there's a chance it could reduce what is expected to be a busy hurricane season.

Don't count on that, though. Just because there's a big cloud of dust now doesn't mean it will keep happening with the same intensity all summer. and fall.  This just happens to be a random big outburst.

FLORIDA MOVES NORTH

Tropical style thunderstorm erupting Satiurday in Florida  oops
I mean Vermont. Things are a bit topsy turvy

The weather in New England has consistently been just like what you'd expect in Florida during the summer the past few days.

Heat waves hit New England almost every summer, of course. But this one has taken on the characteristics of a Florida summer.

In the Deep South, there are typically few major weather systems coming through in the summer. Cold fronts from Canada don't make it that far south, and no big storm systems come across the country to stir up the weather.  

Which means local conditions rule the roost when it comes to the weather.

In Florida's hot, humid weather sea breezes push inland, and form little weather fronts separating the marine air from the hotter conditions over land. These little weather fronts create just enough lift for daily thunderstorms in Florida during the summer.

Meanwhile, local updrafts  create more thunderstorms over interiror Florida.

Up here in New England, we're usually far enough north so that the usual roughly west to east flow of weather systems continues.  A cold front will come through with a burst of thunderstorms, followed by coolish, dry sunny weather, then a bout of hot, humid conditions, followed by another cold front, rinse and repeat.

You know the drill.

The past several days, and today, are featuring a pattern much more like Florida. There's no weather systems moving through, just a dome of hot, humid air over New England and southeastern Canada.

Which means New England is temporarily the new Miami-Dade. One of those sea breeze fronts created scattered thunderstorms a little inland from the coast in Massachusetts yesterday.

Meanwhile, local updrafts continued the daily rounds of scattered storms in interior New England. Unlike Florida, we have mountains, which are more than enough to create the initial updrafts to create those slow moving thundersetorms. They pop up, dump a big downpour on a small area, then dissipate. Then a few more form and do the same thing until the sun sets.

We'll finally revert back to typical northern weather patterns starting Tuesday.  The west to east flow of systems will resume.  A couple weak cold fronts will come through, creating a better chance of showers and storms later Tuesday and Wednesday.

The heat will then diminish, at least for awhile, starting at the end of the week.

Speaking of heat, Burlington has a shot of tying the record for the most 90 degree days in the month of June. The record is seven, set in 1949.

We've had five such days this June, and we are on track to tie the 1949 record. High temperatures in Burlington are expected to reach 90 degrees today and tomorrow.

Will This Be The Hot Summer Most Of Us Dreaded?

Jackson the Weather Dog on Sunday gave up recording
consecutive days of 90 degree heat in St. Albans, Vermont
and found a cool spot on the concrete floor of his
basement to escape the outdoor scorcher. 

I've fled the heat of the main floor of my house and am hiding in the basement as I write today's post. With me are Jackson the Weather Dog and Tonks, our doggie weather assistant.

When the weather makes people hide in basements, it's usually because a tornado is coming.

There is most certainly no tornadoes near me today in Vermont, but the heat sure is baking outside. Only one room of the house is air conditioned, but the basement stays nice and cool. So that's where I'm hiding.

All levity aside, this is getting nasty.

As I write this shortly after 1 p.m., nearby Burlington has reached 90 degrees for the fourth day in a row. It will be the seventh day in this young summer season with at least a 90 degree reading.  Normal for an entire year is five such days.

Forecasts indicate we could be in for two more 90+ days tomorrow and Tuesday before somewhat cooler air arrives later in the week.  

That would give us six consecutive 90 degree days, a record long streak of such weather for June, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.  It would also tie for the second longest streak of consecutive 90 degree days in Burlington for any month.

Long range forecasts, admittedly not always accurate, suggest the much warmer than average weather could continue through the month of July.

This is all making me slightly worried that we here in Vermont will have our turn to get stuck under a relentless, dangerous heat wave that could last all summer. This is completely speculation on my partm and not based on any real science.

However, there does seem to be an increasing trend in parts of the Northern Hemisphere to have disastrous summer long unprecedented hot spells

Could this be our turn?  Only time will tell.

These heat waves over the past decade have been much more brutal, and much longer lasting than past heat waves. This is almost certainly made worse by climate change, which can contribute to hotter temperatures, and at least according to some scientists, favor "stuck" weather patterns that dont change for weeks or even months.

Some examples:

In 2003, a heat wave settled over western Europe for most of the summer. Temperatures stayed near or above record levels for weeks in August.  The heat killed 30,000 people, 14,000 of those in France.

A 2010 heat wave sent temperatures soaring to 100 degrees in Moscow, with the heat lasting weeks, killing an estimated 11,000 people.

As with any extended period of heat, these massive hot spells created massive droughts.

This year, an intense spell of heat is hitting Siberia. Actually, parts of that region near the Arctic Circle have been off the charts above normal with temperatures all year so far.

On Saturday the city of Verkhoyansk, in northeastern Siberia reached 100 degrees. If that reading verifies, it would be the first time on record a temperature has reached 100 degrees north of the Arctic Circle.

The normal high temperature in Verkhoyansk this time of year is in the upper 60s, and it can get to 90 degrees there occasionally.

I got a bit of a scare of sorts in 2018 when a strong heat wave enveloped Vermont, and especially Quebec in the first part of July.  The heat was persisted for nearly a week with an all time high daily minimum temperature of 80 set on July 2 that year.

Luckily, the heat eased after that first week of July, 2018, though temperatures remained above normal through the rest of the summer.

Long heat waves have happened before in Vermont, but not that  often. The worst was probably August, 1994, when 13 of the first 17 days of the month reached 90 degrees in Burlington. One of those days set the all time record high in Burlington, which still stands -- 101 degrees.

So, back to my question: Are we at the start of a summer long siege of heat and drought? The short answer is nobody knows. We'll just have to wait it out.

The maximum number of 90 degree days in any year in Burlington is 26, set in 1949, so a fairly long time ago.

The trend in recent years is a little dismaying, though, if you don't like hot weather. The last time we had a summer with a below average number of 90 degree days was in 2014, when there were only three such days.

Since then, it has ranged from seven so far this year, eight in 2017 and a yikes-factor 17 afternoons in the 90s in 2018. Have the "normal" summers of five 90s passed us by?

Probably not, but they will also likely become increasingly rare in the future, too.

"Pulse" Storms Make For Gorgeous Summer Skies

A small, isolated storm formed over the Adirondacks around
sunset last evening, as seen looking toward the southwest
from St. Albans, Vermont. 

One of the many things I like about summer is the sky is far more interesting and beautiful than in the winter.

Summer is the time of year when scattered showers and thunderstorms are more likely, without those dreary, boring overcast skies that come in the colder seasons.

Such was the case last evening when isolated thunderstorms erupted over mountainous terrain of northern Vermont and the Adirondacks of New York.

These dramatic looking, but usually harmless and brief thunderstorms often form during these hot, humid days.

There's really no weather systems to create updrafts that would form organized lines of clusters of long lasting storms.    But the atmosphere in these conditions is primed for storms, if only there were a trigger.

That trigger is the mountains. The strong June sun helps creates updrafts that also help cause light local breezes.  If things line up just right, one of these breezes hits a mountain slope and is forced to rise.

That breeze going up the side of a mountain can be just enough to trigger a storm.  That upslope breeze becomes a rapidly rising column of air, which forms almost immediately into a towering thunderstorm, the kind we saw here and there last evening. They go from nothing to immense, often in just minutes

Since these clouds are so tall, they can be seen from very far away. People in the Burlington area saw a gorgeous white tower erupt to the northeast early Friday evening. That storm was near Greensboro, almost 50 miles away as the crow flies.

Beautiful isolated storm last evening in
northern Vermont. Photo via Twitter
by Charlie of Mystery Springs
@SlowWaterMvmnt

Unlike in some hot spells, when haze obscures the best views, the skies Friday were more clear, making the beautiful storms more striking.  They were isolated, so looking east, the low angle sun turned the clouds brilliant white, surrounded by a deep blue background.

Some lucky bastard up near Greensboro was probably treated to a brief downpour for their garden, and maybe a lightning strike or two.

These so-called "pulse" storms die pretty much as fast as they form.  Remember, there's no real weather system, or cold front, or boundary to continue the updraft.

Once they move beyond that mountain that caused the initial updraft in the first place, the storm collapses. The process from initiation to dissipation can take less than an hour.

I did say these pulse storms are usually harmless. But there is one moment - when they're dying - when they can become momentarily dangerous.  The storm collapses, often in a very localized gush of wind and heavy rain.

This collapse could become a very local microburst, in which wind is strong enough to cause damage in a very small area.  One end of a street might have fallen trees from this type, while a mile away, there was just a gentle breeze.

Timing out these collapses is hard, and since they're so local and quick, they're often over and done with by the time the National Weather Service can issue a storm warning.

On some occasions, a pulse storm can keep forming in the same location all afternoon and evening, and just not move. In those cases, you can get a small area of dangerous flash flooding while immediate surrounding areas remain dry.

These two hazards only sometimes happen. More often than not, a pulse storm will quickly collapse and die with no danger involved. That's why they're called pulse storms. They quickly form, then quickly fade. It was just a quick pulse.

After we lost the Greensboro storm last evening, a couple others formed in the Adirondacks, contributing to a gorgeous sunset as the orange light lit up the towering clouds to our west and south.

If you missed these beautiful storms last night, not to worry. The weather pattern is kind of stuck in this hot, humid, still and featureless set up.  This will favor more scattered, slow moving and brief "pulse" storms today, Sunday and Monday.

They tend to start forming in the early to mid afternoon on these hot days, and fade with the setting sun.  The storms tend to avoid large valleys, so we in the dusty Champlain Valley will just be bystanders, begging in vain for just a little rain from these brief showers.

A weak cold front will approach us during the upcoming mid to late week.  That will provide enough forcing for more sustained, and somewhat more widespread showers and storms starting perhaps on Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday.

You Think It's Hot Here? Go North To Maine/Canada For Real Heat

The more north you go, the hotter it gets. Forecast highs for
today. Northern Maine is expected to be in the mid-90s,
but it'll only be 80 degrees or so once you get
down to New Jersey. 

As expected, it was quite a hot day in Vermont Thursday. Burlington made it up to 92 degrees.  That was already the fourth day this year that made it to 90 degrees or better.

Normally, the Queen City has just five or six 90 degree days each summer, and most of those days come in July or August.

So we're ahead of the game. Especially since there's at least a chance today, tomorrow, or Sunday could also reach 90 degrees.  The humidity is also going to increase.

However, we're just on the edge of an intense heat wave that's hitting northern Maine, southern Quebec and New Brunswick with some mind-blowing temperatures.

To begin with, the temperature maps are inverted. It's hotter the further north you go on the East Coast. The hottest place anywhere in the United States yesterday east of the Mississippi River was the northern tip of Maine.

Caribou got up to 95 degrees, a record for the date.  Meanwhile, places like Atlanta, Georgia are still waiting for their first 90 degree day.

Some of the temperatures up in southeastern Canada were off the charts. At Sept Iles, way north along the north shore of the mouth of the St. Lawrence River, they experienced their all-time hottest temperature on record at 98 degrees.

Even further north, about 310 miles north of Montreal, Chibougamau, Quebec reached 91.5 degrees.

Jackson the weather dog sits in cool grass in the shade while
taking observations of 90-degree heat in St. Albans,
Vermont Thursday afternoon. 

In New Brunswick, Bathurst reached 99 degrees on Thursday.

The heat will continue in full force across southeastern Canada and northern Maine today. Heat warnings are up for much of Quebec, including metrol Montreal.  Caribou could have a high temperature of 97 degrees today, which would be the hottest reading there since at least 1939, when official records began.

Here in Vermont, it will be hot and humid through the weekend, but perhaps not as bad as points north. Most of the Green Mountain State can expect dailly hghs mostly between 85 and 90 degrees, probably through Tuesday.

There might be isolated thunderstorms, especially in the mountains, today through the weekend. Most of us will stay dry, though.  So drought or drought like conditions will likely keep building.

Another Look At $1 Billion Damage Calgary Hail Storm

The morning after: A man stands amid hail drifts in front of a
Calgary home seriously damaged by hail/. Photo by
Jim Wells/Post Media

Yes, I understand Calgary, Canada is a long way away and I've already brought up in a previous post the massive hail storm and flash flood they had there this past Saturday.

I'm still wowed by the photos and videos that came out of that storm, so I'll share a couple here.  It's a    relatively slow weather news day anyway.

Videos are at the bottom of this post.

Damages from the storm could run to near  $1 billion dollars, that's billion with a "b"  So it was a huge disaster by any measure.

   The Calgary Sun says tens of thousands of homes were damaged in the storm. Pretty much every car not inside a garage in the northeastern part of the city was totaled.

"I would be very shocked if this isn't a top-five insurable cost event in the history of Canada," Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi said. It's certainly the worst damage the city of Calgary has seen from a single storm.

I think the flooding was made worse by the hail. The ice, and leaves shredded by the hail, clogged catch basins.

Hail storms can be among the costliest weather disasters possible.   They cover bigger areas than a tornado would. If they hit an urban area, they might not destroy many buildings, but thousands of structures end up with damage, sometimes severe. Thousands of cars are usually wrecked, too.

Some examples of costly U.S. hail storms include a Phoenix, Arizona area hailstorm in 2010 that tcaused $2.8 billion in damage and a St. Louis area hail storm that cost $2.2 billion.

Hail and severe thunderstorms are common in and around Calgary but this was a whole new level.

More videos:

Here's a damage video taken the morning after the storm. Note how much hail is left on the ground surrounding the destroyed cars and heavily damaged houses:



A glimpse of the storm in progress:


A CBC News  summary of the storm:

Long, Drawn Out Vermont Hot Spell Starts Today

Blue skies as far as the eye could see yesterday in Vermont as
a spell of very warm weather starts. This is looking north from
St. Albans, Vermont. You can make out hills in the distance
near Montreal. 

In those relatively rare occasions when Vermont goes for days on end of very warm to hot often humid weather, these spells almost always wait until July and August to happen. June hot spells usually last a day or two, then fade away pretty quickly.

Not this time.

Starting today, we are in for an early version of a lenghty hot spell, one that could conceivably last until next Wednesday.

At first, the humidity won't feel too bad at all. Notice how refreshing it felt early this morning.  By this afternoon, most of us will be well into the 80s.

Humidity levels will slowly come up. By the weekend and early next week, it will feel quite oppressive.

All his is part of a larger weather pattern that will keep a very warm dome of air - a high pressure system - especially over much of New England and southeastern Canada.

Some record highs are possible in parts of northern Maine and southern Quebec.

Here in Vermont, it doesn't really look like we'll have record highs -- with daily daytime readings expected to be well into the 80s to around 90 through early next week. Forecast highs in Burlington, for instance are between 86 and 88 degrees today through next Tuesday.

The fact that it has been so dry will help afternoon temperatures get warmer than they otherwise would.

If there were a lot of ground moisture from heavy rains, that moisture would percolate into the atmosphere, making it even more humid, but suppressing temperatures a bit.  The pre-existing dryness will help boost temperatures.

The dryness will be an increasing problem for most of us during this spell of very warm weather.  Starting Friday, then ramping up a little bit over the weekend and early next week, the warm, humid air will help fire up some scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Most of these storms would be in the higher terrain. They'll be slow movers, so those lucky enough to get hit by one of these things will get some needed downpours. The trouble is, most of us will miss out, or get so little rain from the edges of these storms that it won't make a difference.

What I regard as a developing drought will only get worse during this hot spell.

It's unclear when any kind of cold front will sweep through with some refreshing air.  The best guess now is next Wednesday. If we're lucky, the cold front come come a day or so sooner than that. If we're unlucky, we'll need to wait until the end of next week to see any relief.

Hurricane Dorian "Sharpiegate" Violated Integrity Rules

Last year's Sharpiegate scandal was a warning that "alternative facts"
over real science could have dangerous consequences. We certainly
learned that this year.

Yes, I'm back to Sharpiegate, that moment last year that seems so long ago when President Trump falsely said Hurricane Dorian would affect Alabama, and later showed a map altered with a Sharpie that falsely suggested the hurricane had been forecast to hit that area.

New reporting this week shows that NOAA officials violated science integrity rules when scrambling to incorrectly back up Donald Trump's wrong statement last year that Hurricane Dorian would blast Alabama, among other things.

In the grand scheme of things, Sharpiegate seems so insignificant now with the nation's botched Covid-19 response killing people and the Black Lives Matter movement highlighting the stain of racism and police brutality in the United States.

However, Sharpiegate is important in a way because it shows how Trump's sycophants prioritize the "need" to massage Trump's super needy ego at the expense of truth, sound policy, and in this case, science.  As we've learned since, ignoring science can be deadly.

This whole thing with what happened last year should have been a small forgettable gaffe that all presidents make.  In the run up to dangerous Hurricane Dorian, Trump included Alabama in a list of states that could be affected.

Very early forecasts had suggested just that, but in the days leading up to Trump's' words, Alabama was off the table. That state would escape Dorian scot-free.

Due to panicked messages they were receiving after Trump spoke, the Birmingham office of the National Weather Service issued a statement saying that Dorian would not affect the state.

A normal president would have then said, "Oopsie, I had bad information. Turns out Alabama's fine," then dropped the whole thing. From there, everybody would have moved on.

But no, not Trump. He always seems ready to waste lots of precious time, resources and reputation to claim he is always right, evidence be damned.

So we had Sharpiegate

The latest report, via Gizmodo and many other media outlets, is this:

"Internal documents supposedly showed that Tim Gallaudet, NOAA's deputy administrator, nor Neil Jacobs, the acting NOAA administrator, had authorized the press release backing Trump - instead, the order apparently came from Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who issued threats to fire Jacobs and other top NOAA officials. Per the Washington Post, an inquiry conducted on NOAA's behalf by the nonprofit National Academy of Public Administration now finds Jacobs and NOAA deputy chief of staff/director of communications Julie Roberts committed at least two violations of scientific integrity rules in issuing the statement claiming NWS Birmingham was wrong. 

The report also concluded that neither official commited a violation when they issued media guidance that limited NOAA scientists from speaking openly to the media about the matter. But Jacobs and Roberts 'intentionally, knowingly or in reckless disregard,' violated conduct and ethics sections of the NOAA Scientific Integrity Policy twice: First by refusing to let scientists in Birmingham review the statement pre-publication, and then sending it out and "compromising NOAA's integrity and reputation as an independent scientific agency."

Of course, this won't matter very much for the people involved, since apparently nobody is facing consequences for these violations. Typical in this administration.  Everybody seems to do whatever they want, regardless of legality and ethics. No wonder there are howls of protest against this administration echoing across the United States.

When Sharpiegate first erupted last year, I said this would erode trust in science, facts and policy when more serious issues came along.  And sure enough, Covid came on the scene, and once again, people who should know better are creating "alternate facts" to appease Trump's little mind.

This time, though, unlike Sharpiegate, millions of lives are at stake and there have already probably been thousands of needless deaths.

Sharpiegate was a warning to the nation about how dangerous this administration is.  We should have listened.

Hot Times Go On: Worldwide, May Was Hottest, Or At Least Tied For It

Extreme warmth, relative to average, in Siberia was a big contributor to
make May, 2020 the warmest on record for the globe. Eastern North
America was one of the few coolish spots. 

Last week, the numbers came out on how the world fared climate wise in May.

To almost nobody's surprise, we're #1 again.

May was the hottest on record for the world as a whole, according to several monitoring agencies, including NOAA's Centers for Environmental Information.

It's been a hot decade, too.  Each of the seven warmest Mays have occured in the past seven year, according to NCEI.

Siberia basically pushed the world over the top in terms of May heat.  Relative to average, that part of the world was off the charts warm.

The only relatively cool spots were eastern Canada, eastern United States, Australia and parts of eastern Europe.

If anything, the trend in global warming has accelerated in the past several year. Each of the past 12 months have either been the hottest or second hottest on record on a global basis.

According to Jeff Masters, writing for Yale Climate Connection:

"The year-to-date period January-May ranks as the second warmest such period on record, just 0.06 (degrees Celcius) behind the record set in 2016.  According to NCEI's annual temperature outlook, the year 2020 has more than a 99.9 percent chance to rank among the five warmest years on record, and a 49 percent chance of being the warmest year on record. If so, calendar 2020 would mean each of the past seven years would be among the seven warmest on record."

As noted last month, global economic lockdowns to slow the spread of the coronavirus will probably reduce carbon emissions by 5 to 8 percent from the record highs of 2019. Even with that reduction, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere will continue to grow.

Plus, the coronavirus crisis might only last another year or two.  That's way too long for us humans, who hate to see these tragc deaths and illnesses from the virus. In the grand scheme of things, though, the coronovirus problems won't last long enough to cause any dent at all in atmospheric carbon concentrations.

According to USA Today, Kennth Gillingham, a climate economist at Yale University was pretty clear on this, saying, "The only reason emissions dropped is that we're all stuck at home....As soon as the lockdowns lift, they are likely to rise again."

For those of you keeping track, May, 2020 was the 425th consecutive month with above normal global temperatuires.

Calgary, Canada Battered By Massive Hail, Floods

Lots of hail and hail damage last evening in Calgary, Canada. Note
the siding damage in the house across the street. Photo by
Cadenza Langan, via CBC

Imagine a quiet Saturday evening in your home.

Then imagine a storm destroying your car, breaking your windows and making mincemeat of your house siding all within a half hour.

That's what happened in Calgary, Alberta, Canada Saturday evening, when a storm, severe even by their standards, surely caused millions of dollars in damage. The main show with this event was just an incredible artillary battery of hail.

The area around Calgary, Canada is no stranger to severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

It's kind of a northern version of Denver, where severe storms develop along the Front Range of the Rockies when winds blow uphill from the east, giving a boost to the storms.

Calgary's topography is similar, so they can have destructive storms, too.

But this was one for the record books. Also the location this time was bad.  There are wide open plains in much of Alberta, and these storms often hit sparsely populated areas, so there's no great harm.

Calgary, however, has a population of 1.3 million, so there's plenty of homes, businesses, cars and other property that hail and flooding can target, if the storms roll over the city and not a few miles out into the Plains.

One of the many homes damaged by hail Saturday in Calgary, Canada.
Photo by Khalid Mahmood 

Which is what happened Saturday.  Not all the city was wrecked, but a good chunk of the northeastern part of Calgary was certainly smashed.

The wind driven hail, some golf ball sized or even tennis ball sized, came down in such density and force that it destroyed a huge number of cars, ripped the siding off countless homes and shattered many windows in some neighborhoods.

We don't have an estimate in the amount of damage yet.

Nearly 2 inches of rain mixed with the hail came down in just one hour, adding some damaging flash flooding to the hail wreckage.

Here are some videos from Calgary

This compilation shows a remarkable shot of large hailstones pounding cars in a badly flooded parking lot:



Aftermath video shows severe damage to siding and windows in a residential neighborhood:



More damage and wrecked plants and gardens in Calgary:

Not Just Vermont: U.S. Dry Areas Drying Out More

Yes, it's dry and getting drier up here in Vermont, but a "flash drought"
is enveloping pars of the United States Southwest

When dry conditions develop in the summer in any given location, they tend to persist as rain storms just seem to go around parched areas.

That's what seems to be happening now in some areas of the nation.

It's dry in Vermont now, but it's nothing like what's going on in parts of Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, southern Utah and Arizona.  

As the Weather Channel reports, that area is experiencing a flash drought, a spell of dangerously dry weather that develops quickly, over days and weeks, as opposed to months and years like most droughts.

The culprit there is - of course - a lack of rain.  However, the weather pattern has brought a few weeks of very hot and windy weather in that region.  Such weather dries the ground out quickly, which is why the drought has developed so rapidly.

This week's weather forecast for the area around west Texas, Oklahoma and Colorado is bad: Lots of dry, hot air and lots of wind.  The wind is striking because winds tend to be lighter once we exit spring and go into summer.

Not surprisingly, given the conditions, there's a big risk of fire this weekend, and beyond, especially in parts of Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and some of the high Plains of western Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.

Already, a wildfire near Tucson, Arizona has forced evacuations of some neighborhoods in the foothills of nearby mountains.

Here in Vermont, things aren't nearly so dire, but as noted yesterday, we're continuing to watch the increasingly dry conditions here.

That rain Thursday temporarily helped in some areas, but the forecast for the North Country is bad if you want moisture for your gardens and farm fields. (Though I admit the forecast for several days in a  row of dry weather is great for farmers who are haying).

There are some inconsequential sprinkles around today.  And it might have snowed a bit atop Mount Mansfield.   I know that at one point this morning, it was 34 degrees up there and some sort of light precipitation was falling.  Weather radar also indicated snowflakes landing on the High Peak summits of the Adirondacks this morning.

In any event, after today, there is currently no precipitation in Vermont's forecast at least into Friday.  High pressure will park itself over northern New England and southern Quebec.  A dramatic warming trend between now and midweek will help evaporation increase - further drying out our surroundings.

We're now into the longest days of the year, which gives the sun all the more time to dry things out as well.

Beyond Friday, we see hints of precipitation moving in, but it's way too early to tell if that will actually materialize.

Time to maybe start doing rain dances?

Chilly Weekends, Toasty Weeks And Rain Spigot To Shut Off Again

My husband last evening finally made me put away the snow shovel
 that has been standing guard by our front door since November.
Which is of course why the National Weather Service suddenly says
there's the possibility of a few snowflakes Saturday on the peaks
of the Adirondacks. I admit it won't snow at my house, though. 

It seems we have fallen into a rough pattern in which we have warm weeks and chilly weekends here in Vermont.

It's been going on since early May. Not every weekend gets the cold shot, but most of them have.

True to form, Saturday will be a very oddly cold day in Vermont in a month that has so far had pretty close to average temperatures so far.  It's just been a yo-yo, though.

High temperatures Saturday won't make it out of the 50s.  That's what weather is normally like in April. For June, it's 20 degrees colder than normal.

It'll be so cold that I wouldn't be surprised if a few snowflakes come down at the summits of the Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains.

Luckily, cloud cover will keep all of us, except maybe the highest mountain summits, above freezing Saturday and Sunday nights.  At this point the cold hollows look like they will escape frost. The rest of us certainly will stay above freezing. .

Sunday will be a little warmer, but still on the cool side for June.  Then, following the pattern we've had for awhile now, it will turn toasty and a little humid by mid to late week, with highs well into the 80s, as it looks now.

It's too soon to tell if next weekend will turn cool again.

LACKING RAINFALL

Most of Vermont, and most of  New England for that matter,
are now regarded as "abnormally dry" by the U.S.
Drought Monitor (yellow shading is the dry areas)/ 

This weather pattern has not bee generous with us at all in terms of rainfall.

A few of us lucked out yesterday.  The northern and southern ends of Vermont got generally a half inch of rain, locally more. The middle of Vermont, not so much.

For instance, my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected 0.70 inches of rain, which was a decent enough soaking.  Burlington only managed 0.11 inches though, which is basically nothing.

A few spots might get a quickie downpour from scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but a lot of us will stay dry.  Those hit and miss showers are from the cold front which will give us the very chilly Saturday.

There might be a few  light showers Saturday and possibly Sunday, but they won't amount to anything.  Pretty much all of us can expect less than a tenth of an inch of rain for the next seven days.

That's bad, if you consider that the optimal, normal amount of summer rains in Vermont usually amount to about an inch per week.

The U.S. Drought Monitor now has all of Vermont except the Northeast Kingdom listed as "abnormally dry" which is one step below drought.  I still think at least a minor drought is developing  in Vermont.

Weather patterns will need to shift pretty dramatically to give us the kind of soakings we are accustomed to in the summer. We shall see how that turns out.

A Little Rain Came Today, Still Could Use A Soaker

Before this morning's rain, we had a breezy, summery evening
Wednesday in St. Albans, Vermont.

It was nice to wake up in St. Albans, Vermont today to the sound of some morning showers moving through. It wasn't anything too heavy, but enough that for once I probably don't have to irrigate the gardens today.

There is a shot at a little more rain as a cold front comes through around early to mid afternoon, but it will probably be hit and miss.

It continues to be drier than it should be for June.  As of midnight, Burlington has had only a quarter inch of rain so far this month, which is an inch below normal.

It hadn't really rained in Burlington yet  today as of 7 a.m., but some showers looked like they would go through that neck of the woods.

I mentioned a threat of severe thunderstorms today in Vermont, and I suppose that might happen here and there, but there won't be anything widespread.  Depending upon how much sun breaks out after the early showers, there might be enough instability to trigger some pretty good, but spotty storms.

This morning's showers might have stabilized the air a bit, which would - maybe - lower the already relatively low chance of severe storms.

If the rambunctious storms do develop, it would come mostly between noon and 5 p.m, earliest in New York and the Champlain Valley.  The best chance of severe storms would probably be in eastern Vermont during the mid to perhaps late afternoon.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center as of early this morning had all of Vermont in a marginal risk zone for severe storms.  That's the lowest of five alert levels. It means there's a possibility of isolated severe storms, but they'd be limited in duration and coverage.

After today, there doesn't appear to be much chance of more rain for several days.  Another cold front Friday afternoon will probably set off a smattering of showers, but don't look for anything major.

A storm in the upper atmosphere is likely to set up somewhere in the eastern United States over the weekend. At this point,  it looks like it will be too far south to give Vermont much precipitation.  There's always the chance it could pull a surprise and set up further north, but for now, the heavy rain associated with that system looks like it will hit places like Virginia and North Carolina.

So drink up today's water from the sky, dear garden plants.  Looks like I'll be attacking you with the hose in the coming days.

And You Thought The Mother's Day Weekend Snow In Vermont Was Weird

Traffic cam of Interstate 80 in Laramie, Wyoming. Yes, this was
taken this morning, June 9

It's June 9. Practically summer.

Imagine waking up to this on your morning weather report:

Winter storm warning....Heavy wet snow. Additional accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, Total accumulations of 5 to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph....Impacts: Some power lines and numerous tree branches will be down. Roads will be slushy and snowcapped, and icy in spots especially over bridges."

That was the state of affairs in Laramie Wyoming this morning, as very odd weather continues to hit the West and parts of the northern Plains.

Snow fell from Washington to Montana and south to Colorado over the past couple of days.  Snowfalls in the Rocky Mountains happen almost yearly in June, but this one is more extreme than usual, that's for sure.

Ski resorts in much of Colorado had fresh powder this morning. Snow plows were clearing slush and ice of Interstate 70 in Loveland Pass, Colorado, west of Denver.

This is all part of a very stormy pattern over the north central United States. The remnants of Cristobol continue moving through the Midwest toward the western Great Lakes and Canada, carrying a flood threat with it.

A separate storm that will eventually merge with former Cristobal is creating an odd wind storm in Kansas and Nebraska. Winter and early spring storms often carry widespread 60 to 70 mph wind gusts with them, but those storms don't happen in June.

This one IS  happening in June with forecasted wind gusts in that 60-75 mph range. Leafless trees in the winter don't fall as easily as ones with leaves.  The leaves act like little sails in strong winds, which will  pull down a lot of branches and trees in the central Plains today.

By the way, a few tornadoes are also likely today in parts of eastern Kansas and Nebraska, and in Illinois and surrounding states.

Back in Laramie, meanwhile winter redux will come to an abrupt end later this morning. They're expecting a high temperture of 57 degrees there today under increasing sunshine.  That's still chilly for this time of year - normal highs this time of year in Laramie are around 70 degrees - but at least the snow will melt quickly.

Some videos:

Nighttime video of snow laden trees and power flashes from  branches falling on lines in or near Laramie:



In a rather high elevation spot in Colorado this morning:

Cristobal: Size Matters

Cristobal is expected to eventually cross the western Great Lakes
and go into Canada later this week. 

Tropical Storm Cristobal, which came ashore in Louisiana Sunday proves that "weak" tropical systems are anything but.  

Top winds with this thing were 50 mph, which doesn't sound like that big of a deal.  However, what Cristobal lacked in wind was more than made up for in size.

Cristobal didn't have a classic tropical storm shape while it was in the Gulf of Mexico.  In satellite photos, it looked more like a giant comma, like you would see in a strong nor'easter in coastal New England during the winter.

Tropical storms and hurricanes usually have a more circular, symetrical shape.

The tropical storm was large in size, which meant it could cause havoc over a wide area.  That's why you saw on the news tornadoes swirling through Orlando, Florida. It's also why parts of Florida got up to a foot of rain.

Size mattered in an even more important way.  Cristobal's relatively modest winds covered a wide are of the Gulf, so it was able to push a lot of water ahead of it.

This created a nasty storm surge, made worse by the timing. The surge came just as high tide rolled in.  Coastal communities like Grand Isle, Louisiana and Waveland, Mississippi were inundated as a result .

MORE CRISTOBAL TROUBLE

Cristobal, now a tropical depression as of early this Monday morning, will move generally north and end up in Wisconsin by early Wednesday morning. It will take a swath of heavy rain with it. Flood watches are up along the projected path of Cristobal in Mississippi, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa and Wisconsin.

The storm will be gradually becoming a non-tropical system as it moves northward through the Midwest. If it still has some tropical characteristics by the time it hits Wisconsin, which is quite possible, that will be something.

The storm is actually expected to strengthen as it approaches the Great Lakes as it gradually merges with another storm.  It could cause some damaging wind gusts midweek, and create the lowest air pressures on record for June in that area.

VERMONT EFFECTS

We won't have any direct impacts from Cristobal here in Vermont, but it sure is helping to make the weather forecast challenging.

The Cristobal storminess in the Midwest and a strong, but sharp and narrow upper level ridge further east puts Vermont in a weird spot.  A warm front out ahead of everything will try to move in, but there's disagreement in the computer models as to whether it will make it all the way through here.

High and mid level cloudiness will accompany this feature over Vermont Tuesday, and a pretty big temperature gradient will be setting up over or near Vermont.  We could end up with  a cool, cloudy 65 degree day up in Newport and a muggy 85 degree afternoon down in Bennington.  That's just one possibility, but the temperature contrast could set up further west, or further east. Who knows?

Wednesday's weather is a toss up. It all depends on where that warm front goes, and if it makes it north of us. It could either be humid and way up in the 80s to near 90 in a spot or two, or just in the 70s with more moderate humidity.

Amid all this uncertainty, the remains of Cristobal, and the cold front it will eventually drag through here at the end of the week, won't give us a lot of rain.  Which is too bad. We still need it, despite the showers we had over the weekend.

Here's a drone view of storm surge flooding from Cristobal in Grand Isle, Louisiana: