Extreme Flooding Affecting Southeastern Canada

Flood evacuations in Sainte-Marie, Quebec. Photo
by Jacques Boissnot

Here in Vermont, officials are sorting it out with FEMA on the matter of getting federal assistance for at least $2 million in flood damage from a mid-April storm that brought snow melt and high water to much of the state.

Lake Champlain continues to flood, hovering just under 101 feet above sea level. That's very nearly a foot above flood stage. With more rain in the forecast, the Lake Champlain flooding won't go away any time soon. 

North of the border, though, things are much worse, much more dire. Severe flooding is wrecking communities near Ontario, in much of Quebec, including the Montreal metro area and in New Brunswick.

Here's just one sample, as reported by CBC:

"The most dire situation is in Sainte-Marthe-sur-le-Lac, a suburb west of Montreal that was inundated Saturday night after the Lake of Two Mountains burst through a natural dike.

More than 5,000 residents were forced to grab what they could and flee as waist-high water filled their streets and homes. Another 1,500 people were evacuated from their homes the following day."

At least 9,000 people in Quebec have been evacuated from their homes due to the flooding.

The Ottawa River between Quebec and Ontario is nearing a record high level set just two years ago. People have filled more than a million sandbags to protect neighborhoods in Ottawa and Gatineau, Quebec. Still, some neighborhoods in both communities are under water.

Gatineau has had terrible experiences with weather lately. Last September, a rare, strong tornado swept through Gatineau, injuring six people and damaging or destroying nearly 1,700 homes.

CBC also had this interesting factoid about weather extremes in Canada so far in 2019:

"The record flooding is expected to push losses for Canadian homeowners from extreme weather to more than $1 billion just four months into this year. The figure was close to $2 billion for all of 2018."

Though floodwaters are receding a bit from flooding along the St. Johns River in New Brunswick, more rain is forecast in saturated southeastern Canada this week.

Cool Weather Returns To Vermont, But Much Of World Has Had Hot Spring

Extreme warmth in the Arctic (dark red) more than offset
relative coolness in central North America, southern South
America and parts of Asia during March

Here in Vermont, after a relatively warm spell during the middle of this month, we're back into a cool regime.

High tempereratures this time of year should be around 60 degrees, give or take.

Highs over the past couple of days have been closer to 50 degrees or so, and that state of affairs should continue most of this week. 

Meanwhile, some other parts of the nation have been quite chilly, with two snowstorms having already affected part of the Plains and Midwest in the past few days. A third snowstorm is brewing in the Rockies and High Plains of Colorado and Wyoming over the next couple of days.

Vermont, or the Northern Plains, are not the entire world, of course. The world, it turns out, has been having a generally very warm spring, in keeping with trends over the past few years and even decades. Climate change is at least partly to blame for that warm trend.   (And yes, I'm fully aware it's autumn in the Southern Hemisphere. Work with me here.)

We can start by looking at March. That month was a little chillier than average here and Vermont and it was quite cold compared to average out in the northern Plains and northeastern Rockies of the United States. Montana was especially chilly with mean temperatures as much as 10 degrees below normal.

But the world as a whole had its second warmest March on record, says NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.  March was also tied for fifth place in the list of all months with the greatest departure from normal on the hot side, so March was a pretty remarkable month globally.

March also seemed awfully extreme, with notable cold actually popping up, as noted in central North America and to a lesser extent around India.

This chill was more than offset by incredible warmth for the season in Alaska, northwestern Canada, most of Europe and northern Asia, especially Siberia, southern Africa and Australia.

April data isn't available yet, since we have a couple more days to go in the month. Still, there have been some pretty impressive pockets of early season heat.

Vietnam just in the past week recorded its hottest temperature on record - 110 degrees. It's normally in the 80s this time of year in the part of Vietnam that was so hot.

This tmight be temporary, but Arctic sea ice extent was the lowest on record for the season as of mid-April. Greenland was as much as 36 degrees warmer than normal earlier this month, and the summer melt season got underway too early for sure. Whether these worrisome trend continues into the summer depends upon weather patterns and cloud cover over the next few months in the Arctic.

Wildfires have started up in weird places for April, including moors in West Yorkshire, England during a record Easter heat wave. Those record and near-record Easter highs in Great Britain ncluded 74 degrees in Edinburgh, Scotland, 70 degrees in Northern Ireland and 76 degrees in London.

In northern and central India, intense heat has settled in and is expected to last into May.  While punishing heat waves always occur in this region before the seasonal monsoons set in, this year is similar to recent years in which the heat arrives earlier in the spring than what had long been considered normal.

As always, with or without climate change, there have been some cold patches, too.

While part of Australia had that record late season heat in mid-April, a sharp cold front from Antarctica brought very chilly air into western Australia and New Zealand earlier this month. Parts of southeastern Australia had its coolest morning in three decades for so early in their autumn season.

Of course, it remains to be seen where big heat waves next develop around the world. With summer fast approaching in the Northern Hemisphere, we run the risk, especially with climate change, of seeing frequent, intense, near record heat waves like we did in 2018.

In all depends upon the underlying weather patterns and cycles.

Montana Blizzard, Chicago Winter Storm. NOW?!?!?!?

Red sky in the morning means to take warning. This was the ABC News 7
webcam in Chicago at dawn today. By this afternoon,  this same spot
will likely be seeing a late season snowstorm.

Boy, has the northern tier of the nation taken a giant step backward into winter!!

A compact but pretty wound-up storm is setting off a winter storm of all things in a narrow stripe in southern Minnesota and Wisconsin, northern Iowa and northern Illinois, including Chicagoland.

The northern half of the Chicago metro area in particular looks like it's really under the gun. There, three to eight inches of heavy, wet snow is expected to come down later today.

This storm is, of course, weird for Chicago in the heart of spring. The average date for the last one-inch snowfall in Chicago is March 17. This one, if an inch accumulates, will be close to a record. The latest one-inch snow in Chicago on record came on May 3-4, 1907.

Some trees in Chicago are starting to leaf out. That means the heavy, wet snow accumulating on those nascent leaves, and expected gusty winds, will damage a few of those trees.

So yeah, this is pretty unwelcome in the Second City and other areas under the winter storm warning. Some areas could see snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour.

Meanwhile, a separate storm has triggered a blizzard warning of all things in north-central Montana. Two to five inches of late season snow propelled by gusts of 55 mph expected Sunday won't make for   a terrific day there, that's for sure.

Here in Vermont, we're not getting off scot-free, but at least there's no blizzard coming. Rain showers will change to snow showers in the mountains today, leaving behind a dusting to a couple inches way up near the summits by Sunday morning.

That storm from Chicago will weaken as it heads east, but will still drop a cold, light rain Sunday in southern Vermont, with a little snow possible up high.  A hard freeze is likely statewide Sunday night, so if you got ahead of yourself in the garden, protect those plants!

We've also launched ourselves into a long period of colder than normal weather in Vermont that will last more than a week.  Spring is on hiatus for the foreseeable future, I'm afraid.

Wild Wyoming Tornado Video Shows Even Small Tornadoes Are Incredible

Damage to the inside of a mobile home after a weak but
dramatic EF-0 tornado swept through Marbleton, Wyoming.
Photo by Nikki Williston. 

A resident of Marbleton, Wyoming captured video of a tornado on Friday that shows that even weak ones are nothing to be toyed with.

On paper, the tornado doesn't sound that awful at all. The tornado was measured as an EF-0, the weakest in a scale that goes up to EF-5, which is the strongest.

The Marbleton tornado had maximum winds of 80 mph. Its path on the ground went only a tenth of a mile. The thing was just 20 yards wide. Not exactly the Midwest tornado disaster we often see on the news.

Still, the video below captures the wild drama. (Note: Video is NSFW, as the videographer is understandably swearing.)  You see near the beginning of the brief video a mobile home flop over in the wind. Debris swirls in the air. Remarkably, a trampoline goes flying in a broad arc overhead.

The person shooting the video probably shouldn't have been watching the tornado from her front window with the tornado so close. Debris could have smashed through, injuring people. But still, it's a brief but wild ride. Watch:

Rain, Snow, Severe Weather, Floods, Winds Ahhh, Spring

Floodwater from Lake Champlain surrounds a mobile home
in Alburgh, Vermont on Thursday. 

This morning's post is a series of weather highlights to watch today. None of them are super extreme, but all of them should be watched in case of trouble.

Some of the issues are here in Vermont, others are relatively far from home. So let's get into it:

LAKE CHAMPLAIN: Minor flooding continues on the lake, but the water is high enough to cause some trouble and damage. I've noticed some erosion of back yards that touch the lake in some areas of the shoreline.

The lake level this morning was right around 100.7 feet, or 7/10ths of a foot above flood stage. Some gusty southeast winds could cause erosion on the New York side of the lake today. Plus those persistent winds will "tilt" the lake, pushing water higher into the north end. Flooding will get a little worse, temporarily at least, up north by Alburgh and those areas.

Saturday, relatively gusty winds will switch around to the west, causing some wave action to screw around with the Vermont shore. Luckily, so far, we're not anticipating any huge, tremendous wind storms which would make shoreline damage a lot worse. But the expected one to two foot waves can still cause trouble.

The storm today and tonight will drop between a half inch to an inch of rain. River flooding isn't expected here in Vermont from this, but the water in those rivers will probably rise enough to keep Lake Champlain going up for a few days, possibly reaching 101 feet. At the very least, it won't recede anytime soon.

THOSE WINDS:  The winds on the western slopes of the Green Mountains today will become pretty strong, especially this afternoon. Gusts could reach 50 mph or higher, so there will be a few power outages and tree branches down in those regions.

Elsewhere, winds could gust over 30 mph, making for a raw, chilly day, with highs in the 40s east, low 50s west.

THAT RAIN: As mentioned, aside from Lake Champlain, today and tonight's storm won't cause renewed flood trouble in Vermont, but might well do so in New Hampshire and Maine.

Up there, it will rain harder and there is still more snow to melt in the mountains. One to three inches of rain is expected in central and northern New Hampshire and western Maine. That's where the most mountain snow still remains, making it a double whammy. They've already had flooding this month, and flood watches are up again, as it looks like another round of high water is in the offing in northeastern New England.

SAY IT AIN'T SNOW

Here in northern New England, a pretty nasty chunk of chilly air will follow today's storm. In the mountains, high temperatures Saturday won't get out of the 30s. Valleys will be in the chilly 40s. The higher elevations could get a dusting to a few inches of snow Saturday. A few rogue flakes could easily reach valley floors.

This isn't unheard of this time of year, obviously, but it's still unwelcome.

And it's not as bad as southern Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Iowa are under a winter storm watch for Saturday. These areas could get four to nine inches of snow out of a storm scooting through. That's pretty far south for a winter storm this time of year, and I'm sure they're hating it out there.

This storm will eventually affect mostly southern Vermont, but it will bring some rain, but not much snow. There could be a mix of rain and snow in some mountains Sunday, we'll see.

SEVERE WEATHER

Today's storm system brings the risk of severe thunderstorms and maybe some tornadoes to the Mid-Atlantic States. This continues a trend that seems to have started last year, in which tornadoes are touching down with seemingly greater frequency on the East Coast.

There have already been damaging tornadoes this year from Pennsylvania through Virginia down into the Southeast. Today's threat is from southeastern Pennsylvania down through Delaware, eastern Maryland, Virginia and into eastern South Carolina.

Obviously, no severe storms are expected up here in Vermont, but there's a chance we could hear a rumble of thunder overnight.

Unhappy Flood Surprise For Car Owners Returning To Dallas Love Field

An almost artistic view of cars submerged in floodwaters inside a
parking garage at the Dallas Love Field airport on Wednesday.

Torrential rains hit the Dallas-Fort Worth area Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, causing flash floods around that metroplex.

At Love Field, one of the major airports in the region, water flowed into the lower level of a parking garage, meaning people who return home from trips and go to their cars are going to get a very wet, unhappy surprise.

It's unclear if the City of Dallas or  owners' insurance carriers will foot the bill for the damage, or will this be out of pocket expenses for the car owners.

Actually, I'm sure most of the ruined cars will have been towed out of the garage. Maybe. I'm not sure what they're going to do with the cars. Dozens of cars were wrecked. The flooding, the structure of the garage, its lights and the cars made for some pretty striking images.

If I didn't feel sorry for the car owners, which I do, I would actually call some of the images almost artistic.

Here's a video:

Lake Champlain Flood Continues, Won't Go Away Soon

Lake Champlain has been above flood stage since Sunday morning, and the high water isn't going to end anytime soon.

Floods along the lake tend to last days and weeks anyway, as so many rivers and streams feed in. There's only one outlet - the Richelieu River in Quebec It's like pouring multiple buckets of water into  a bathtub with the drain open.

You can fill a tub that way faster than it will drain. The same is true with Lake Champlain.

As of this afternoon, Lake Champlain was at 100.63 feet, or about six-tenths of a foot above flood stage.

At least the lake has pretty much stopped rising, at the moment. A USGS graph shows the water level not changing much since late yesterday. It's up just 0.03 feet in the seven hours ending at 2 p.m., which is just a rounding error.

Rainfall last night was probably not enough to add much of an additional surge to Lake Champlain, if anything. Snow melt from the mountains probably added a little extra runoff during Tuesday afternoon's warm temperatures.  That rain and snow melt probably delayed a flood crest, though.

The rise in Lake Champlain's lake level was stalling at just
above 100.6 feet today. It's more than a  half foot above
flood stage. When it starts receding that process will be slow. 

Cooler weather that is expected to be locked in for a week or so probably means what little snow remains in the mountains will not melt much. In fact, new snow was falling on some peaks today, including the summit of Mount Mansfield.

The weather pattern will remain unsettled and frequently showery, which would further delay or slow any retreat of Lake Champlain flood water.

We'll need to watch a storm on Friday, which has the potential to a least slightly increase the flow of water into Lake Champlain. Beyond that, it's too soon to tell whether any storms will have an influence on the flooding.

While the lake is flooding, the biggest danger from any real damage is if we have particularly windy days, which would send battering waves against shorelines, causing erosion, road damage and possibly even damage to lakeside camps.

Northwest winds were causing one to two foot waves today. The next real chance of bigger waves comes Saturday, when expected northwest winds could create three-foot waves.

If you want a brighter side, at least this Lake Champlain flood won't be nearly as bad as the worst on record, in 2011.  The flooding that year came from a combination of a deep, moisture rich mountain snow pack and record amounts of rain in April and May.

We certainly won't have record amounts of rain this month, and the risk of such rainfall records next month is minimal at best.

Video: Tornado Hits Ambulance

This tornado is barely visible through the rain, but it was rated an EF3
with winds of 159 mph or so. It hit last week in Franklin
County, Virginia. Video in this post shows an ambulance
being hit by the twister

There were a number of tornadoes in the Southeast last Friday.  As is often the case especially with twisters in the East, this one was wrapped in rain, nearly impossible to see.

Until it is too late.

Such was the case when two paramedics in an ambulance encountered an EF-3 tornado in Franklin County, Virginia. You can see in the video below how quickly things escalated.

The back window of the ambulance blew out, filling the vehicle with debris. Thankfully, the paramedics weren't hurt. There wasn't any patients in the ambulance at the time.

The ambulance was obviously knocked out of commission, but the pair did rescue another motorist who had gotten caught in the twister. Another ambulance came, got tht guy to the hospital with non-life-threatening injuries.

Here's the video:

Mississippi College Bar Tornado Panic Proves Need For People To Plan For Scary Weather

 The building housing Bin 612 in Starksville, Mississippi. The
bar came under controversy this month when it ordered
patrons out when a tornado warning was issued. 

If you're out and about and a tornado warning is issued, you should seek shelter in a sturdy building if at all possible.

One good idea if you have time is to run into a business in a substantial building.

People do that all the time during warnings. Business owners are pretty much always happy to rescue people caught out in their cars or on foot when a tornado is bearing down.

However, you can't always count on a business being accommodating, or even capable of helping people out in dangerous weather.  

This was the case earlier this month in Mississippi. It highlights how people should be prepared in advance for scary, dangerous weather. And how businesses and municipalities can develop or improve severe weather emergency plans.  

Controversy erupted in Starksville, Mississippi during a recent tornado outbreak in the South, when a pub called Bin 612 near Mississippi State University.

Bin 612, and other nearby restaurants, shut their doors when a tornado warning was issued.  Some people were outraged that the bar would kick people out in a tornado warning. Others wondered why people were out at bars in the first place when forecasts had called for severe weather all day.

According to Al.com:

"Bin 612 - and nearly half a dozen nearby restaurants in the area's Cotton District - shut their doors as soon as the tornado warning was issued. Those already inside were asked to leave. And it didn't go over well.

Video posted to social media Saturday night showed a cacophony of dumbstruck students as chaos ensued following the evacuation notice. 'Get the (expletive out!' a voice can be heard shouting - later revealed to be a third-party security guard."

In the jumpy video, you can also hear a young woman pleading, "Where do we go for shelter?"

Dire warnings probably unintentionally helped lead to the panic. Often, if a tornado is confirmed or if signs point to a particularly bad one, tornado warnings often have enhanced working. Shortly before 10 p.m. that Saturday, the National Weather Service in Jackson, Mississippi issued a tornado warnint for the Starksville area.

A few minutes later, that warning was upgraded to include the message that "a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located....nine miles southwest of Starksville" and moving right toward the town. People had less than 10 minutes to take cover.

This enhanced wording from the National Weather Service is meant to tell complacent people that this one is serious, take it seriously.

The dire warning panicked people in Bin 612 and surrounding bars. Bin 612 has a basement, but it can only hold about 50 people. Close to 300 people were in Bin 612 that night. Video of the moment is at the bottom of this post.

Staying in the bar would have been dangerous, Ty Thames, the owner of Bin 612 told Al.com

"'People were too intoxicated to understand they were in danger there,' explained Thames. 'It's basically wall to wall glass on the front and back of the building. The only non-glass walls we have are interior room-to-room walls. And those are lined with glass racks to hold glasses, over 300 liquor bottles and tons of serving glasses."

Thames said security guards tried to guide people to a nearby underground parking garage. But the crowd was panicked, the guards were frantic and yelling expletives. So any sense of a reasonable process to take cover was lost

Thankfully, the tornado lifted before it reached town.  So, death and disaster averted.

That's not always the case. There have been deaths over the years at outdoor concert venues and other events when severe weather rolled in and organizers didn't have a good enough plan to get people to shelter in time.

All this points to lessons that should have been learned. Bin 612 and other businesses should think through a plan to evacuate people in an orderly fashion during an emergency. No ad hoc security guards shoving people out through doors, please. To his credit, Thames said he would review and upgrade his severe weather plan

And people out for an evening when severe weather is forecast should have looked at their surroundings and figured out where they would go if a tornado warning was issued, or another emergency cropped up. Better yet, since they'd been forecasting rough weather all day, people maybe should have stayed home, and go out another night when the weather was calmer.

I know this is paranoid, but when I go to a crowded public venue, I always take note of where the exit  signs are, and think for a moment how I would leave if I had to get out in a hurry.

Here's the video of security guards yelling, scared, drunk patrons and people not knowing what to do. Not the best moment in severe weather prep:

Hurricane Michael Upgraded To Rare Category 5 Storm At Landfall

Add caption

It turns out Hurricane Michael, which devastated parts of the Florida Panhandle and surrounding areas last October 10, was even stronger than first thought.

It was a rare landfalling Category 5 hurricane, the strongest you can get. It had previously been regarded as a higher end Category 4, but a re-analysis has determined the extremely powerful hurricane was even a little worse than everybody assumed.

According to a statement Friday from NOAA's National Hurricane Center:

"Michael is the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States as a Category 5 since Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and only the fourth on record. The others are the Labor Day Hurricane in 1935 and Hurricane Camille in 1969. Michael is also the strongest hurricane landfall on record in the Florida Panhandle and only the second known Category 5 landfall on the northern Gulf Coast."

Hurricane Michael was originally thought to have made landfall with top sustained winds of 155 mph, which is a high end Category 4. But it probably had sustained winds 5 mph higher, at 160 mph.

As a practical matter, the 5 mph difference has little real-life effect. The storm would have been pretty much as destructive if winds were "only" 155 mph instead of 160 mph. The top sustained winds of 160 mph probably occurred in a very small area around Mexico Beach, and Tyndall Air Force Base, Florida.

But the new designation helps demonstrate how extreme Michael was. The upgrade in the storm's intensity came after the National Hurricane Center reviewed wind measurements from aircraft, reports of surface wind measurements air presure, satellite intensity estimates and Doppler radar data. This includs a lot of data and analysis that was not immediately available at the moment Michael roared ashore, says NOAA.

Most hurricanes weaken as they approach a coastline, because friction with land usually interferes with the storm's air flow. Hurricane Michael kept strengthening right up to the moment of landfall. There's no telling how strong it would have gotten had it gone through more warm ocean water before reaching shore.

Only a few recorded hurricanes, like Hurricane Charley in southwestern Florida in 2004, strenghten rapidly until landfall. This type of hurricane is obviously extremely dangerous. People in the hurricane zone might have been expecting a weaker hurricane, only to confront a monster like Michael.

With this in mind, Hurricane Michael is sure to be studied extenstively going forward. Meteorologists will want to understand why some hurricanes strengthen dramatically as they approach the coast, like Michael did. Better forecasting in such situations will surely save lives.

I also think scientists will want to better understand whether climate change makes it more likely that hurricanes could pull a Michael and get much more dangerous as they come ashore.

Meanwhile, the people who suffered the effects of Hurricane Michael are probably not caring whether the storm had 155 or 160 mph winds. It'll take years to clean up the mess. CBS News said some people were still living in tents six months after the storm.

Hurricane Michael will also present dangers for years. About 350,000 acres of northwest Florida pine forests were completely destroyed by the hurricane. Another 4.6 million acres are damaged.  All that fallen timber presents a big wildfire danger, reports Scientific American.

Already, there has been on pretty good sized fire near Panama City, and there will probably be more.
All this is more proof that hurricanes don't really end when the winds die down. In some ways, they continue on for years.

Flood Update And Those Weird Temperatures In Vermont On Saturday

Water from Lake Champlain began to creep over this walkway
at Perkins Pier in Burlington, Vermont Saturday as the
lake approached its 100-foot flood stage.

Water is receding this Sunday morning in most of Vermont, with the notable exception of Lake Champlain and the Connecticut River as the weather has taken a dramatic turn for the better, especially in northwestern parts of the state.

As expected, most of the flooding was minor, except in parts of the Northeast Kingdom where the heavy rains Friday and Saturday fell on melting snow.

High water around St. Johnsbury and Lyndonville rivaled the damaging floods of April, 2014, May, 2011 and July, 1973.  Homes and businesses in some parts of Lyndonville and St. Johnsbury likely suffered flood damage.

USGA data indicated Lake Champlain reached its 100 flood stage at around mid-morning today. and it will continue rising for at least a day or two as the rest of the runoff from that weekend rain and snowmelt makes its way to the lake.

The risk of damage from the lake flooding will come if we get any high winds over the next couple of weeks that could cause battering waves and erosion. Spring can be a windy time of year, so that's something to be watched.

It could get a breezy on Wednesday, but there are no big wind storms in the forecast for at least the next week. So that's good.

The other flood problem is along the Connecticut River from about Fairlee north.  Waterways were particularly high in northeastern Vermont and northern New Hampshire because there was more snow to melt there than elsewhere. That and the rain sent a LOT of water headed toward the Connecticut River.

At Wells River, Vermont, the Connecticut River could be close to two feet above flood stage, with possible further rises after that.  Low water crossings will be underwater for days, as will many hundreds of acres of farmland.

As the crest goes downstream, people should monitor the Connecticut River from along the central Vermont/New Hampshire border to Long Island Sound in Connecticut. Flooding is a possibility all the way down to the mouth of the river.

Other than the Connecticut River and Lake Champlain, I don't see much in the way of new flooding threats for the rest of the week at least. We'll certainly get our share of off and on April showers during the week and into next weekend, but there are no drenching storms in the forecast

ODD TEMPERATURES

A temperature inversion kept Burlington, Vermont chilly and
foggy last evening, while elsewhere in Vermont, it
was a very mild evening with temperatures in the 60s.

Can we talk about how weird the weather was on Saturday? Yes, it was a typically rainy April day, but those temperatures were all over the place.

One of the reasons why there was so much flooding is in many cases, the mountains were warmer than valleys, at least the valleys in western Vermont.

An inversion kept a layer of warm air overhead, with chily air in the deeper valleys of northwestern Vermont.

The top of Mount Mansfield had temperatures in the 50s all day Saturday, with rapid snowmelt contributing to the flooding. The snow depth there went from 107 to 90 inches in two days.

Meanwhile, in Burlington, temperatures were in the low 40s all day, as low level cold air drained down the valley from the north.

To the east, on the other side of a stalled cold front, in places like St. Johnsbury and White River Junction, temperatures Saturday were well up into the 60s.

South winds were blowing just one to two thousand feet overhead, so it was warmer up above. The cold waters of Lake Champlain also helped to form a lid of cold air over the Champlain Valley, which did not allow those warm winds above us to mix down to the surface. Thick fog formed beneath this lid keeping the warm air above out.

This lid began to break up overnight, leading to strange temperature changes. Rutland was just north of the stalled front during the day Saturday. Temperatures in Rutland abruptly went from the 60s to the 40s just before midnight Friday as the cold front came through. The front stalled a few miles south of Rutland, keeping readings there in the 40s most of the day.

That front jogged north and the inversion broke in Rutland a little before 6 p.m., and the temperature immediately rocketed upward into the upper 60s. Very strange.

In Burlington, the temperarture abruptly rose about nine degrees just before midnight as the south wind finally broke through, and that 54 degrees at midnight was the high temperature for the day.

Things are taking a much more normal arc today. Lows in the 50s this morning will rise to the 60s or maybe around 70 this afternoon. Readings will slowly fall this evening, which is the way things are supposed to work.

So Far, Vermont Flooding Mostly Minor In Vermont; But Water Continuing To Rise

State of the flooding in the region as of 7:15 this Saturday morning.
Light green areas are flood warnings, meaning flooding is occuring.
Dark green is flood watches. I do think we'll see a few more
light green flood warning areas popping up during the day today. 

As expected, rivers were rising across much of Vermont and surrounding areas early this Saturday morning. Already a few flood warnings were up in northern parts of the state.

With continued warm temperatures in at least some of the mountains and another surge of rain to go, flooding will probably still worsen in the state.

Rainfall across northern areas overnight ranged from a quarter inch to an inch. Normally that wouldn't be a big deal, but with snow melting from the mountains and saturated ground, this was enough to create at least a little flooding.

Snow melt from the mountains is pretty healthy. The top of Mount Mansfield lost eight inches of snow Friday, leaving the snow depth at 99 inches. That's still a lot, but it's the first time they've been under 100 inches since mid-February.

So far, things aren't as bad as they were with Monday's flood, but there's still areas of concerns. Parts of the Passumpsic, Missisquoi and Lamoille rivers in northern Vermont were already under flood warnings at dawn today. Route 122 near Route 5 in Lyndonville was already shut down by high water. So is part of Route 5 in St. Johnsbury Center.

In New York, flood warnings were up along the Ausable River. Flood warnings were also in effect on some northern New Hampshire rivers.

We'll have to follow rain patterns today to see if the situation intensifies. In general, the low areas that usually get flooded in the spring will go under water. As always, avoid driving through floodwater. Turn around and find another way to get to where you're going.

Forecast map has the Missiquoi River at North Troy flirting with moderate
flood stage today. 

Early this morning, a stalled out cold front bisected Vermont, roughly from between Bennington and Rutland, to a little southeast of Montpelier, to a little northwest of St. Johnsbury.

South and east of that line, it's summery humid with temperatures in the 60s. North and west of that front, it's a dank April morning with temperatures in the 40s.

If you have a sharp temperature contrast like that, you do have to worry about heavy rains.
Moisture pools along such boundaries and the contrast helps add lift to the atmosphere.

As it was, with the front stalled across north central Vermont overnight, some of the heaviest rain fell right along this boundary, with about an inch reported.

A batch of steadier rain from overnight was heading northeastward out of Vermont and into central and northern Maine, where flood concerns are even bigger than they are in Green Mountain State.

Meanwhile a batch of heavy showers and thunderstorms was entering southern Vermont as of mid-morning. It's unclear exactly how far north this rain will get before it gets shunted east. But much of the state can expect more showers, a few of them heavy, on and off during much of today.  It's also unclear if this northward moving batch of rain will lighten up, or maintain its intensity. 

Nevertheless, the rain and storms will generally want to follow that stalled front, so chances are at least southern and central and eastern Vermont, if not the whole state, could get another good, unwelcome dousing today.

In the warmer air in eastern Vermont, there's a heightened chance this rain could develop into heavier downpour-ish thunderstorms. That could increase the flash flood risk over the eastern half of the state.  Forecasters will just have to track it and see what happens.

Since there are some thunderstorms mixed in, there's the risk of torrential downpours that could touch of flash flooding in a few spots.

Rain will taper off this evening.  Easter Sunday still looks nice, with partly sunny skies, warm temperatures and only a minimal risk of showers.

Although there looks like there will be unsettled, showery weather of and on next week, the rain doesn't look particularly heavy, which is good.

Runoff from today's rain and snowmelt and continued runoff from some rain will continue to flow into Lake Champlain. It'll reach its 100-foot flood stage as soon as today.

Flood Forecast Update: Northern Vermont Targeted Most, We Think

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont has
this rain forecast out. Areas in dark green are expected to get
at least an inch of rain. Yellow areas can expect at least 1.5 inches.

The forecast hasn't changed much since yesterday, and there remains a definite concern over flooding in and near Vermont, especially overnight and into Saturday. 

Right now at least, the risk of flooding seems highest over northern New York and Vermont north of Route 2 tonight and tomorrow morning, but people south of those locations need to keep their eyes out for high water, too.

In fact, flood watches cover a vast area from northern Maine, through most of New England and down through eastern Pennsylvania, Maryland and northern Virginia because of this potent storm.

Further south, there's a pretty good risk of severe thunderstorms with high winds and a few tornadoes in Virginia and the Carolinas today. At least there will be no severe thunderstorms, just a bunch of rain up in our neck of the woods.

Most of the rain during the day today will be in northern New York and edging into far northwestern Vermont. Lots of wet air streaming north from the storm to our south and west is feeding into a cold front that's coming into the northern reaches of New York.  You can feel that warm, humid-ish air in much of Vermont this morning.

At dawn, temperatures in the Champlain Valley were in the upper 50s, which wouldn't be far from normal at dawn in July.

That front is slowly sagging southeastward, and with it, the rain.

The question overnight is how far south the cold front gets.  Rain will be be focused near the cold front, and rain will be heavy at times along it If the front goes further south than expected, then the rain goes further south, too.

The steady rain and mountain snow melt will feed into rivers and most of them in the region, especially in the northern half of the state, are likely to go into at least minor flood stage.

I mentioned there will be no severe thunderstorms, but there might well be embedded heavy downpours and local peals of thunder late today and overnight.  This would create pockets of sharp flash flooding, much like we saw in parts of Rutland and Windsor counties early Monday.

The best chances of this happening are over the Adirondacks, the northern Green Mountains and perhaps the White Mountains of New Hampshire. Overall, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is thinking many areas of Vermont and northern New York will get an inch of rain, with a few pockets getting two or even more inches of rain. That's plenty to create flooding, especially with already high water levels, snowmelt and wet ground

By the way, things look really bad up in northern Maine, where there's still a ton of snow on the ground and forecasts call for two to three inches of rain up there. Expect major flooding in northern and central Maine out of this one.

As mentioned Saturday, forecasters are watching a new surge of moisture that could touch off heavy downpours with showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. At this point, most of those look like they will head through southern New England and probably on into New Hampshire and Maine.

But that will be watched, in case they back up into Vermont after all.

Lake Champlain, which is now under a flood warning, was interesting yesterday. Strong south winds actually tilted the lake on Thursday, pushing water to the northern end. Up at Rousses Point in the north, the lake rose to around its 100 foot flood stage. Much further south in Burlington, the lake level actually fell about a tenth of a foot because the water had been pushed north.

Overall, the lake is going to reach its 100-foot flood stage this weekend, so if you have property along the lake, you'll want to protect it as much as you can from waves, erosion and such.

I'm not sure if the lake will get to a more serious 101-foot level. It all depends on how much rain falls in the coming couple of weeks and how heavy any downpours are.

Easter Sunday, after the likely floods of Saturday, actually looks quite nice. It'll be warm, with temperatures well up into the 60s. Skies will be partly sunny and there's only a low chance of scatterered showers.

More showers will pop up Monday and Tuesday, but at the moment, they don't look especially heavy.

Risk Is Growing For A Second Vermont Flood In A Week

Areas in green are under a flood watch this weekend.

Gosh, Wednesday was a gorgous day!

Wall-to-wall sunshine, light winds and pleasantly mild afternoon temperatures drew a lot of people outdoors. I hope you enjoyed it, as things are going downhill.

The big weather news is there seems to be a growing risk of renewed flooding in Vermont and surrounding areas, though questions remain about how serious this might get. More on that in a second.

A warm front was coming at us this Thursday morning, but it will get temporarily get hung up over the Green Mountains today. That means it will be warm-ish west of the Greens today with highs closing in on 60 degrees, while many areas east of the Greens won't even make it to 50 degrees.

Only scattered light showers will accompany this warm front, so don't worry about any flooding today Winds will get blustery today and tonight, with winds gusting past 40 mph in spots, especially in the Champlain Valley. (The wind went from calm to gusts estimated close to 30 mph in the hour ending at around 6:15 a.m. at my house in St. Albans, Vermont.

Then the flood threat grows on Friday and Friday night. That storm system we have been talking about will move northeastward along the western slopes of the Appalachians Friday and Saturday, while a cold front sort of sags into northwestern parts of our area from Canada.

The storm will have a rich feed of moisture coming off the Atlantic, and that moisture will interact with that cold front that will be sort of sitting around somewhere over northern New York or perhaps northwestern Vermont.

That means a good slug of rain falling on a wet landscape and rivers still running high from Monday's flooding. At least initially, the flood threat looks best in northern Vermont, rather than southern Vermont Friday night, though the threat is there aross the entire region.

Flood watches are up from Friday evening through Sunday morning for the entire region.

There's a lot of question marks about Saturday. At this point, it looks like dry air will wrap into the storm Saturday over New York State, so only scattered showers are expected there.

East of this area, more wet air will be streaming up from the south, and showers and thunderstorms will develop. Now, that's bad, because downpours associated with thunderstorms would cause flash flooding and worsen the general flooding.

Nobody is sure if Saturday's storms will get going somewhere in Vermont, or further east in New Hampshire or Maine. (There's flood watches over in New Hampshire and western Maine, too.)

One example of the flood threat in Vermont. After some flooding
on the Passumpsic River in the Northeast Kingdom Monday,
high water is forecast to be possibly even worse this weekend. 

North central and the Northeast Kingdom has the most snow left to melt. If the expected slow-moving thunderstorms target that area, the flooding could get pretty serious.

Already, forecasts for the Passumpsic River in the Northeast Kingdom call for a moderate flood crest, higher than on Monda. That would flood some neighborhoods in Lyndonville and shut down parts of Route 5 near St. Johnsbury.

Again, nobody knows where these showers thunderstorms will set up and how torrential they will be, so we just have to monitor future forecasts.

In general, minor to moderate flooding is forecast, which is what we had Monday. But as we saw, even moderate flooding causes a lot of trouble.

Damage assessments are still underway. There's a lot of destruction of town roads and bridges. For instance, in Pittsfield, deep in the Green Mountains of central Vermont, damage to roads and bridges might be as much as four times the town's $230,000 annual road budget, NECN reported.

The Otter Creek at Center Rutland actually reached major flood stage on Monday, flooding a few homes in Rutland City and Center Rutland. The state has so far tallied at least $2 million in flood damage from earlier this week.

It's possible that there was enough damage for parts of Vermont to be declared a disaster area. Of course, if flooding develops this weekend, that would increase the damage.

Lake Champlain was just below flood stage today, but those strong south winds will cause some wave splash over and erosion. The steady winds will actually tilt the lake, so it will be higher on the north end. So up by Rousses Point and Alburgh, the lake might reach flood stage of 100 feet today.

The renewed rain this weekend is sure to make the entire lake go over that 100 -foot flood stage

Beyond Saturday, the weather will remain generally unsettled, but at this point it doesn't look like there will be any heavy rain storms between Sunday and the middle of next week. Just the usual April showers.

Macabre Effect Of Global Warming: Dead Bodies Emerging From Ice On Mount Everest

Because glaciers are melting, dead bodies of people who passed away
in climbing expeditions have been emerging from the glacier at this
high elevation camp on Mount Everest. Photo via BBC by
Doma Sherpa

Mount Everest, the world's highest mountain, is a deadly place.

More than 4,800 have climbed to the top of Mount Everest. Nearly 300 other people died trying, according to the BBC.

In most cases, the people who died were left there, because of the obvious danger of bringing the deceased off the mountain. From there, snow and ice would entombed the fatalities forever.

Or so we thought. As the BBC reports: 

"Because of global warming, the ice sheet and the glaciers are fast melting and the dead bodies that remained buried all these years are now becomeing exposed, said Ang Tshering Sherpa, former president of Nepal Mountaineering Association."

Another person who is a liason officer on Everest said he has personally retrieved about 10 bodies in recent years from different spots on the mountain and more are emerging lately.

While most of the bodies are appearing because of glacial melting on Everest, some are emerging because of natural movements in the Khumbu Glacier, which sometimes exposes long-deceased people.

Climate change is actually creating far bigger risks in the Himalayas than the macabre exposure of dead mountaineers on Mount Everest.  Melting glaciers over time threaten the water supply of perhaps a tenth or more of the world's population.

According to National Geographic:

"The Hindu Kush Himalaya encompass hundreds of the world's most iconic mountains, hold over 30,000 square miles of glacier ice - more than anywhere else in the world besides the poles - and sustain 240 million people in the peaks and valleys. The mountain ranges also cradle the headwaters of rivers like the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra that provide water to billions in the lowlands downstream."

Most of the snow in the highest elevations in much of the Himalayas actually comes during the summer. At that time of year, the monsoons that sometimes cause flooding in the low elevations to the south sneak up to the Himalayas, creating big summer snowstorms.

However, in general, the monsoons have been weakening, meaning less snow falls. That downward trend in snowfall is expected to continue with climate change, so snowfall in the high mountains will continue to decrease, says National Geographic.

Less snowfall eventually means less ice for the glaciers. And global warming threatens to increase melting of those glaciers. A double whammy.

Eventually, the fear is the glaciers will get so small that they'll reduce the amount of water feeding into rivers. These are the rivers that those billions of people rely upon.

On top of all that bad news, there's a shorter term danger, according to the National Geographic article.

Melting glaciers feed into glacial lakes. Rocks, dirt and debris typically hold these lakes back. If melting increases, the lakes will overwhelm these natural dams, sending walls of water into populated areas below.

All this is just another local, and very serious end result of climate change. I'm sure scientists will keep coming up with other reasons why this is all bad. I can't wait to find out more

Vermont Flood Waning. Does Another One Loom?

In this photo from VTrans, water from the White River beginning to
overtake Route 107 in Stockbridge on Monday. 

It has definitely stopped raining in Vermont and the rivers are receding after yesterday's floods. 

There's a couple videos at the bottom of this post showing the Vermont flooding.

It was nothing at all like the flood disaster in Nebraska earlier this spring, but the Vermont water was certainly high.

There were still some flood warnings out there this morning, including along the Winooski and upper Connecticut River and the Otter Creek in Center Rutland.

While the Connecticut River crest will continue downstream from the Northeast Kingdom, the other two rivers are receding and should fall below flood stage later today. Clearing skies, gusty winds and dry air today should help with the drying process. It's also too cold today for much of the remaining snow in the mountains to melt, so we don't have to worry about that runoff.

Luckily, this flood stopped short of damaging many houses. There were a handful of evacuations, and I know some basements in parts of central and southern Vermont were flooded. Most of the problems came along roads.

I was impressed by how many major state highways were closed by high water yesterday - probably at least a dozen.

Back roads took a hit. It's mud season, so dirt roads were soft and squishy and the soil was easily moved. Most heavy storms in April feature a steady soaking rain. This one included torrential downpours in thunderstorms in the southern half of Vermont, so many rural roads were washed out and closed. Quite the mess, I must say.

One person had to be rescued from a parking lot at the Killington Ski Resort. The resort is still open, and skiers sometimes sleep in their cars to save money during local skiing and riding exursions. While Anthony Szeliga, 23, of Niagara Falls, New York slept in the only car in the lot, waters rose overnight, trapping him in his SUV, according to the Rutland Herald.

Szeliga was rescued, uninjured and taken to a local hotel, the Herald reported. 

Northwestern Vermont, where I live, lucked out.  A lot of us had only roughly half an inch of rain, and it really caused no problems. Everything is high and dry today around my house in St. Albans.

Looking ahead, though, there might be more trouble. Wednesday will be dry and sunny, with normal temperatures in the 50s - no problems there.

There might be a little rain Thursday and Friday, and temperatures will rise sharply by Friday, so runoff from mountain snowmelt will pick up.

Then there is an interesting looking storm on Saturday. It's too soon to tell whether Vermont will be targeted by the storm's heavy rain or will the downpours go by to our west or east?

The storm looks like it's going to grab a plume of deep, rich moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and push it northward somewhere along the East Coast on Saturday. But the fine details aren't there yet.

It looks like we in Vermont would be on the warm side of the storm. If that comes to pass, we'd be at risk of thunderstorms with heavy downpours once again. Sharp rains like that would cause more back road and driveway washouts and such. So stay tuned.

Lake Champlain this morning was closing in on flood stage. It was 99 feet above sea level this morning and rising. Flood stage is 100 feet.  There's only minor flooding at 100 feet, but if it gets to 101 feet, you run the risk of shoreline damage, especially if strong wind whip up big, battering waves.

We'll have to keep an eye out on the lake over the next couple of weeks to see what it does.

Some video:

Scenes of flooding from various parts of central Vermont:



The Vermont Department of Agriculture took a drone over the flooding Winooski and Mad rivers in central Vermont Monday. As you can see, there was a lot of lowland flooding but the houses all looked safe. This flooding hit early enough in the season so that the agricultural fields you see under water should be fine when planting season hits:

Flooding In Vermont Today, Severe Weather Influenced It

USGS data from early this morning showed the Otter Creek in
Center Rutland Vermont zooming rapidly upward past
flood stage early this morning. 

Early this morning, flash flood warnings and flood warnings were in effect around Rutland County and southern Addison County, Vermont, with other flood warnings extending northeast of there.

Overall, the flooding in parts of southern and central Vermont is, if anything, worse than anticipated.

A line of thunderstorms that was earlier part of an area of severe thunderstorms and tornado warnings made it into western New England, including southwestern Vermont earlier this morning, enhancing the rain and making Rutland and Windsor Counties so far at least, the epicenter of flooding from this current episode.

The thunderstorms weren't severe by the time they hit Vermont - no high winds and certainly no tornado threat. But they retained their heavy rain and up to two inches of rain fell on saturated ground and melting snow in just a short period of time.

There are flooding reports coming out of the area. A driveway is washed out along Route 4A in West Rutland. My sister Lynn, who lives in West Rutland said three thunderstorms blustered through overnight, each containing very torrential rain. She confirmed reports that Route 4 was under water near the West Rutland Price Chopper supermarket. Lynn also said water appeared to be flowing into a basement on Route 4A.

Route 133 in Middletown Springs was blocked by floodwaters, as was a section of Route 30 in Wells.

Also, Route 7, a major commuter route, was closed this morning by flooding at Post Road in Rutland Town. Route 107 was  closed by flooding in Stockbridge, as was Route 100 in Rochester.

Since that batch of heavy rain was heading northeast early this morning, flooding will probably worsen during the morning in parts of central and eastern Vermont. We'll have to watch Windsor, Washington and Orange counties in particular. Listen for flood and flash flood warnings, and do what the warnings say. Don't drive over flooded roads!

Not everyone in Vermont saw flooding. As usual, it was hit and miss. For instance, where I live in St. Albans, Vermont, it certainly rained overnight. But there was no sign of flooding around my place. The little brook that runs past my house had a healthy flow, but it was far, far below the level where it would cause trouble.

The rain will become more showery as the day progresses, but there still might be pockets of briefly heavy rain after that mass of thunderstorms exits eastern Vermont later this morning.

I think by then, the threat of flooding on smaller streams will begin to diminish, but runoff from the rain and melting snow will keep the larger rivers rising. With all that heavy rain in Rutland and Bennington counties this morning, the Otter Creek will be a problem.

USGS data this morning shows the Otter Creek rising extremely fast and it had past flood stage by early this morning.   We'll need to watch other rivers across Vermont today for flooding as well.

The National Weather Service early this morning also issued flood warnings for the Mad and Dog rivers in central Vermont, which were rapidly rising toward flood stage early this morning.

The best guess is most of the major rivers in Vermont such as the Lamoille, Winooski and Missisquoi will crest this afternoon and tonight.

By the way, there will probably be some snow showers again in the high elevations overnight, but accumulations won't amount to too much. Tuesday will be a windy and cool day.

After a break in the weather midweek, we'll have to watch another potentially very wet storm toward the end of the week and the weekend. It looks like we in Vermont might get even more into the warm side of the storm than is the case with today's system.

That raises the possibillity of more thunderstorms with heavy rain instead of a more gentle, steady rain. It's not set in stone if this will happen. Things could definitely change. But there's at least the potential for another flood threat at the end of the week.

SEVERE WEATHER

Those thunderstorms that caused havoc in the southern half of Vermont this morning were part of a line of severe storms that got going in the Ohio yesterday and moved to the East Coast this morning.

There was a very damaging tornado in Shelby, Ohio, and numerous tornado warnings and reports of wind damage in Pennsylvania, western New York, New Jersey and on down the coast to Florida. There was even a tornado warning in Philadelphia for a time early this morning.

There was also a report of wind damage from thunderstorms as far north as Warren County, New York, which is immediately to the west of Rutland County, Vermont. As of 6:30 this morning the thunderstorms were causing an enormous amountof lightning in southern New England. Luckily, those thunderstorms should move east of Boston by the time the Boston Marathon starts today.

It still looks like there will be another widespread outbreak of severe weather and possible tornadoes in the middle and southeastern quarter of the nation Wednesday through Friday.

Some videos:

Tornado=wrecked fire station in Mississippi



New view of Franklin, Texas after Saturday's tornado

Tornado Week Continues In U.S.; Update On Vermont/New England Flood Threat

Lots of  tornado damage in Franklin, Texas Saturday

As expected, Saturday was a bad day in the United States for severe weather and tornadoes, with reports of three deaths, many injuries and much destruction across the South. And there's a lot more to come.

Up here in Vermont, the (less) rough weather will take the form of rain, possibly thunder and almost definitely some flooding. I'll get into that further down in this post.

Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi took the brunt of the storms Saturday. As expected, there were at least a couple very strong, long-tracked tornadoes. Tragically, two children died in one of the storms in Texas when a tree fell on their car.

The town of Franklin, Texas was trashed by an EF-3 tornado, where many homes were damaged or destroyed. The town of Alto, Texas was hit by two tornadoes that struck about 90 minutes apart from each other.

There's a couple videos of the tornadoes and damage in the south at the bottom of this post

Today, the severe weather threat has shifted to the the central Appalachians and the Southeast. 

There is a tornado watch this morning in Alabama and Georgia and there have been reports of some tornado damage this morning in this region, especially in Troy, Alabama.

This afternoon the area that seems to be under the greatest risk of severe weather seems to be around West Virginia, eastern Ohio, much of Pennslvania, and down into western Virginia and western North Carolina.

Most of the danger from today's severe weather will be from damaging straight-line winds in the thunderstorms. However, a few tornadoes could also spin up in this region.

The nation will get a brief break from the severe storms and tornadoes Monday and Tuesday, but another strong storm, this one rather slow moving, will really ramp up the threat Wednesday through Friday. 

It's always hard if not impossible to pinpoint the seriousness and exact location of severe weather events days in advance. At the moment, Wednesday looks like a potentially dangerous day in the Mississippi Valley from about Iowa south. Thursday seems risky in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, and then the Southeast gets targeted again Friday.

So far this year, it has not been a super busy tornado season in the United States, but it has been worse than the past four years or so, which had fewer than average tornadoes and tornado deaths.

It seems the nation's relative tornado drought is over.

VERMONT FLOODING?

Burlington, Vermont on Saturday reached a high temperature of 72 degrees, the first reading in the 70s since October 11, 2018

The warm weather got the mountain snow melting pretty fast, and river levels have gone up. This morning, there was already a flood warning for the Barton River, around Coventry up in the Northeast Kingdom.

This, and it hasn't even started raining yet.

Skies in northern Vermont were crystal clear earlier this Sunday morning, but that is changing fast. Forecasts have been very consistent about the amount of rain expected.  It'll be around an inch, with the "drier" spots getting perhaps three quarters of an inch and the wetter areas receiving around 1.25 inches or so.

Of course, the snow will keep melting off the mountains into already relatively high running rivers, so the forecast is the same as I mentioned yesterday: There probably will be a lot of locations in Vermont with flooding. Flood watches are obviously still in effect. 

The rainfall will wax and wane from late this afternoon through Monday, but many of us will have a couple periods of heavier rain. A thunderstorm or two might even mix in over night. The short, sharp bursts of heavier precipitation would help get small streams and creeks flooding pretty quickly overnight and Monday.

The state's larger rivers will rise overnight and Monday. For the most part, they'll crest Monday afternoon and the first part of Monday night.

Most of the flooding will be minor, but still needs to be taken seriously. People have this habit of driving into flood waters, thinking they can make it through. I hammer this home every time there's a flood threat. Don't be stupid and go around barriers put up to block roads that are flooded.

Just deal with the time and inconvenience of doing a detour. It's totally worth it.

After a brief cool and breezy interlude Tuesday, it will warm up again, then turn rainy again by the end of the week. If that end of the week rain proves to be heavy (it might) that would renew the flood threat.

Some video:

This is a video of the storm that caused the devastating tornado in Franklin, Texas. The tornado is probably in the middle of the view in this video. I'm showing it to prove that it's often impossible to see a tornado coming, especially if it's wrapped in rain:



A couple describe the tornado that destroyed their home. As they talk, a couple of puppies are still lost in the rubble. Spoiler: It has a happy ending: