"Potential" Tropical Storm Is Really Being Hyped

Just one of many potential tracks for Wannabe Isias.  Expect
forecasts to shift around a lot in the coming days.

If I were to believe some media and social media posts, I'd thing a Category 999 hurricane was about to blow Florida out of existence.

Before we got on with this post, some facts to clear up.

I hope you understand that I know that hurricanes only go up to Category 5; there's no such thing a "Category 999."

Category 5 is the worst hurricane you can get.  There is currently no Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.   In fact, there are no hurricanes anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

It's possible a tropical system of some sort could affect Florida over the weekend, but we don't know for sure if that will happen, and if it does, how big a deal it would be.

So here's the non-hype version, as best as I understand it.  If you want more information beyone what I'm about to describe, check out what real live scientists are saying over at the National Hurricane Center. 

The hype you're hearing is prompted by something called "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine." As of this morning, it was causing really crappy weather way out there in the Lesser Antilles, and will probably do the same to Haiti and the Dominican Republic tomorrow.

They haven't given "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine" a name yet because it hasn't developed a well defined circulation.  It's just a mass of gusty thunderstorms that overall have some spin, but haven't congealed into a storm yet. But as of early this morning, it was getting close to that level.

When it does (or even if) it gets its act together, it will be named Isaias.  If you're curious, it's pronounced "ees-ah-EE-ahs."

As you're probably sick of hearing from me by now, forecasting the strength of direction of any tropical system can get tricky.

It's especially so with Wannabe Isaias.  It's a huge clump of thunderstorms, and where a center eventually forms will determine its path and strength.  Right now, even the folks at National Hurricane Center are throwing up their hands a bit with this one.

But they're giving it a try, because that's what they do.

If Wannabe Isaias gets it act together today, it might get punched down to a wannabe again if it hits the Dominican Republic directly.  The mountains there will screw it up.

If Wannabe Isaias detours around that mountainous island, it could keep getting stronger.

This is where the Florida hype comes in. Wannabe Isaias  could  cause trouble in places like Puerto Rico, the Virgin Island, maybe Cuba or the Bahamas.

Forecasts tracks as of this morning take this thing toward Florida, but remember what I just said: Where the center of Wannabe Isaias eventually establishes itself will determine a lot about its future path.

It could pass south of Florida and go into the Gulf of Mexico.  Maybe it will hit Florida. Or it'll curve north and then east and miss the United States entirely.  Note to Donald Trump: We don't know if Wannabe Isaias will affect Alabama. 

We just don't know any of this for certain yet.  Don't believe anyone who tells you they know for sure where this is going. They don't. At least not yet.  And don't even get me started with questions on whether Wannabe Isaias will affect Vermont and if it does, how so?  Use your Magic 8 ball for that one.

As mentioned above, we also don't know what kind of strength or lack thereof Wannabe Isaias will have.

So here's what you SHOULD do regarding Wannabe Isaias:

1. Continue monitoring the storm, especially if you live in or have interests in the Virgin Islands, Hait, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and Florida.  No need for any kind of panic, by the way.

2. It's early in the hurricane season.  If you live in hurricane prone areas, or flood prone areas, now is a great time to pop down to Home Depot or Lowe's or whatever to pick up your hurricane preparedness supplies. This is whether or not Wannabe Isaias amounts to anything. Wear your mask  into the stores, please!

3. Have a plan in case Wannabe Isaias or any other tropical storm or hurricane comes along.  If told to evacuate, where would you go?  Make it easy to grab important documents and medications and such if you have to go.  Think about what you would do with pets.  Add in some extra planning because of this Covid pandemic.

4.  If this thing does get close to you and the National Hurricane Center and local emergency managers start barking orders, like prepare or even evacuate, do what they say. It'll make it easier on everyone. Including yourselves.

Hanna And Her Siblings

As expected, Tropical Storm Hanna formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is going to cause some mischief along the southern coast of Texas.

Hanna looked pretty healthy on satellite images this morning. As of 4 a.m., the storm only had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, but I'm sure they'll find that it will have strengthened by later this morning.

Luckily, Hanna likely won't have time to strengthen all that much as it heads west towards Texas.  As of early this morning, it was only about 280 miles east of Corpus Christi, Texas and will make landfall by early Saturday afternoon.

Still, a well-organized system like Hanna sitting over very toasty Gulf of Mexico waters can strengthen fast. There's a chance that Hanna could become a hurricane even though it's already fairly close to land. Only after landfall is it guaranteed to weaken.

Pretty much all tropical storms and hurricanes weaken upon landfall.

It looks like Hanna might dump upwards of a half foot of rain in some sections of southern Texas, certainly enough to raise a flood risk.  It will have gotten stronger by the time it reaches Texas. It probably won't be all the way up to hurricane strength, but it might get close.

Meanwhile, Hanna's unreliable little brother Tropical Storm Gonzalo continues to churn east of the Lesser Antilles. That storm is a wild card, because it's small and unpredictable.   Smaller storms can strengthen or fall apart on a dime, and that's the kind of thing we're seeing with Gonzalo.

A little dry air intruded on Gonzalo yesterday, disrupting its circulation.  It still might get stronger as it moves into the Lesser Antilles by the weekend.  It's then expected to get weaker again once it's into the eastern Caribbean.

But little Gonzalo probably isn't done with surprises yet, so  the National Hurricane Center will certainly keep a close eye on the little devil.

Meanwhile, out in the Pacific, Hanna's big brother Hurricane Douglas continues to spin toward Hawaii. Douglas was a Category 4 monster early this morning with top sustained wind of 130 mph. Luckily, Douglas isn't near any land at the moment, so it's not wrecking anything.

However, Douglas is still headed toward Hawaii.  Cooler water in its path and strong winds aloft will surely weaken Douglas. It will still be a borderline hurricane/tropical storm with winds of 75 mph as it gets near the Big Island of Hawaii over the weekend, according to current forecasts.

Back in the Atlantic Ocean, a strong weather disturbance is coming off the west coast of Africa and will start to head west far out there.  This one could also eventually turn into a tropical storm or hurricane, so stay tuned!

Good Weather News: Recent Nationwide Tornado Shortage

Shelf cloud from a severe thunderstorm over Colchester, Vermont
in June, 2017. There are some occasional storm chances
in Vermont over the next week or two, starting this evening. 

Back in April, amid some deadly tornado outbreaks in the United States, I was warning that perhaps the worst was yet to come, given that May and June are the peak tornado months in the nation.

Turns out any forecast of a bunch of tornadoes was a thankful bust. Tornado activity in the U.S. in May and June was at or near record lows.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center tweeted that so far, they've only counted 50 tornadoes in June, the lowest number since 1952.

A few more tornadoes might be confirmed from June after more investigations, but the number will almost certainly be at a record low.

Only six tornado watches were issued in the U.S. during June, the least on record,  besting eight watches, the previous record low set just last year.  For May and June combined, there were only 16 tornado watches, easily breaking the record for least number of such alerts during the two months. The old record was 28 such watches in 2018.

Interestingly, one of tornado watches in May included parts of Vermont, an area we all know is decidedly not tornado alley. No tornado is known to have touched down in Vermont so far this year.

Overall, there were 4,044 reports of severe weather - thunderstorm winds, hail and tornadoes - in June, which is somewhat below the average of 4,940 for the month, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

We're past the peak of tornado season for sure, but of course tornadoes and severe weather can and do still occur in July and beyond.

If you for some reason you are a Vermonter who like severe thunderstorms, there's a very slight chance you'll be in luck later today.

A squirt of rather hot, humid air is making its way into the state today, which should prompt high temperatures in the 80s to locally around 90 degrees.

Meanwhile, a weak cold front is pressing south and southeastward from Quebec and there's a relatively fast flow of air developing overhead, coming down from the northwest.  This has the potential to help produce scattered thunderstorms, a couple of which might have strong to damaging gusty winds.

This is most likely in northern Vermont, but even there, the chances of any one place being hit by such a severe storm is on the low side. The Storm Prediction Center has northern New England and northern New York in a marginal risk zone for severe storms later today.

Marginal risk is the lowest of five alert levels for severe storms and means that there's a chance of isolated, localized severe weather.

We are getting into an interesting weather pattern that could bring us more rounds of scattered, gusty thunderstorms over the next week or more.

A dome of very hot air is setting up over the central United States and south-central Canada.

We here in Vermont will be on the eastern edge of this hot dome, which means we'll get periods of very warm, humid air.  At the same time, with the center of this "heat dome" to our west, the overall air flow will come from the northwest, riding down the front side of this high pressure ridge.

Such a northwest flow on the edge of a hot air mass, is a recipe for scattered, sometimes severe storms as little disturbances move southeastward in this airflow toward us.

It's hard to predict when or if any of these thunderstorms will develop any more than a day or two in advance. The storms also won't necessarily happen every day, and won't necessarily be all that widespread.

But while you're enjoying, or not enjoying the rather warm and sticky weather in the forecast for the next week or two, keep an eye out for thunderstorms, especially during afternoons and evenings

No, All These Tornado Outbreaks In The South Are Not Normal

A tornado safety closet that a family huddled in is the only thing
left of a home swept away by a tornado last week in Mississippi.
The family survived. More dangerous tornadoes are expected
today in the same region.

Another outbreak of tornadoes appears likely in the Deep South today, continuing a terrible winter and spring down there of heartbreaking twisters, severe storms and repeated, devastating flooding, all amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Today looks especially bad across the northern half of Louisiana and the southern halves of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has this area on level 4 of 5 in terms of risk level today.  So it's pretty serious.

Already, as of mid-morning, a tornado watch was up for eastern Texas and western Louisiana, including the Houston metro area. Some straight line wind and hail damage had already been reported in parts of the South as of 10 a.m. It will get worse as we go through the day.

Many of these areas are just coming off a terrible tornado outbreak exactly a week ago, so this is definitely bad news.

A few tornadoes today in this region might once again be especially strong, especially if supercell thunderstorms get going without interference from larger clusters of thunderstorms moving in from the west.

Even that larger cluster of storms from the west wil cause trouble with their own batch of tornadoes, strong winds, hail and flooding rains.

We obviously won't completely know until tomorrow how many tornadoes will form, how big they will be and whether they hit any heavily populated areas. But once again, people in the Deep South are hunkering down and praying the tornadoes miss their houses.

We are heading into the peak of tornado seasons and April tornadoes are rather normal, especially in the southeastern quarter of the United States.  Yes, tornadoes are normal, but the number of them this year, and the deaths they are causing, is anything but normal.

It turns out the tornado outbreak last Sunday and Monday yielded 132 twisters, which is a huge number for two days of severe weather.  Preliminary research indicates this is tied for the fifth-most numher of tornadoes in a two day outbreak on record in the United States.

The tie is with an April 15-16, 2011 southeastern United States outbreak. The record biggest outbreak for two days was 271 on April 26-27, 2011. So you can see 2011 was the benchmark for a horrendous tornado season, and one we don't want to repeat.

In addition to the tornado risk, flooding is a big concern in the Deep South, as it has been frequently for months now. Potentially life threatening areas of flash flooding are expected today in the same areas with the greatest tornado risk.

Not good.

The weather pattern will remain bad in the South in the upcoming week or more. Severe weather threats look like they will ramp up again Wednesday, then after, that, probably next weekend.

Interesting Big Storms Around, But Vermont Mostly Spared

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Harold smashed into parts of Vanuatu
in the South Pacific Sunday and Monday 

The past day or so, and the forecast, calls for a few odd - and strong - storm systems both in the United States and elsewhere, especially in the South Pacific.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD

The nation of Vanuatu in the South Pacific comprises about 80 islands stretched out over 800 miles. Part of that island chain was hit by an immense hurricane named Tropical Cyclone Harold.

Hurricanes are called tropical cyclones in that part of the world and this was an extreme one.

Tropical storm Harold hit Vanuatu's largest island with winds estimated at 145 mph.  According to the Category 6 blog, the island has about 40,000 residents, mostly scattered in small villages across the island.

Harold had earlier killed 27 people in the Solomon Islands, the Weather Channel reports.

The coronavirus pandemic is going to complicate relief efforts in Vanuatu.  The island nation had not yet reported any cases of Covid-19, thanks in large part to restrictions at international borders and on tourism.

However, relief workers won't be allowed to come to Vanuatu to assist, unless they do a 14-day quarantine first, notes the Weather Channel. The economic and social toll of the pandemic will probably also interfere with relief efforts.

Harold is still out there, and is threatening the island nations of Fiji and Tongo.

BLIZZARDY MAINE?

A winter storm watch is up for western and central, and parts of northern Maine Thursday into Friday for what could be a doozy of a storm.

A storm system and cold front will move through New England Thursday, including here in Vermont.  The good dynamics with this storm will create plenty of showers, gusty winds, maybe a rumble of thunder and then some snow showers here in the Green Mountain State Thursday and Friday.

Once the storm gets to the Maine coast, Pow! It looks like it will blow up rapidly into a late blooming nor'easter.  Even the normally staid meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine are wowed with the storm's potential.

"This is an impressive winter storm for any winter month, let along mid-April," they wrote in this morning's forecast discussion.

The storm will be pretty compact, at least at first, so the big storminess will focus mostly on Maine, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and the far southeastern corner of Quebec.

Maine and adjacent Quebec will be on the colder northwest side of the storm. Current forecasts call for a good seven to 10 inches of heavy, wet snow, along with strong winds. If that comes to pass, there will certainly be some nasty power outages in that neck of the woods.  Luckily the storm won't hang around for a long time, so conditions in Maine will start to improve later Friday.

Even so such a nasty winter storm is a bit of a shock to the system in April, even by Maine standards.

SOGGY S. CALIFORNIA

The winter rainy season in southern California is usually ending by now, but don't tell that to residents down there now. Flood watches are up for southern and southeasternn California, mostly south and east of Los Angeles.

A slow moving storm will dump heavy showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the usually dry deserts inland from the southern California coast. Those storms could easily cause some flash flooding.

Los Angeles got into the act yesterday with 1.22 inches of rain, the most for that date on record. It's a cold storm, so winter storm warnings are up for the mountains east of the city.

Forecasters are carefully watching what this storm does once it ejects out into the southern Plains of the United States toward Saturday.  If conditions come together right, the storm could produce a nasty tornado outbreak in the Southeast.

However, forecasting models are all over the place with this system, so nobody yet knows if the storm will turn into a monster or a nothing burger once it gets out into the south and middle of the nation.

Wild Videos Of Tornados Crashing Through South Carolina High Schools

Serious damage at a South Carolina high school after a tornado
struck it this month. Nobody was inside when this twister
hit on a Saturday night. 

Two South Carolina high schools were hit by tornadoes this month, but luckily in one case, nobody was in the school. In the second case, the twister hit the parking lot, but missed the actual high school building.

Dramatic vidoes of both tornadoes are at the bottom of this post.

Let's start with the high school parking lot tornado.  

It was an unexpected one, but it did yield some dramatic video, and a case lesson on how small, relatively weak tornadoes can be potentially deadly.

In this case, nobody was hurt when the tornado went through a high school parking lot, damaging dozens of cars. The twister tossed a few on top of each other.

You might have to watch the video at the bottom of this post  a couple times to catch the narrow funnel cloud going across the parking lot and tossing the vehicles. But it is something to behold.

As is often the case with tornadoes, this one is pretty narrow, so many of the vehicles in the parking lot do just fine.

The tornado goes to prove that it doesn't take a particularly large or strong tornado to put people in danger.

The tornado was an EF-1, with winds of 90 mph.  It hit the campus of Loris High School in Horry County South Carolina on Monday, according to numerous news reports, including television station WPDE  in Florence, South Carolina.

About 75 cars were damaged, and some of them were damaged, WPDE reported. 

Still, since classes were in session, we're glad the tornado didn't go through the high school instead. It would have only damaged part of the high school, but the part were students would have been in could have been really in trouble.

There was no tornado warning in effect at the time.  Meteorologists at the nearest National Weather Service office were tracking the parent thunderstorm and detected some weak rotation within it. But that rotation didn't seem strong enough to set off a tornado.

But it did. The rotation was just enough to set off a relatively weak tornado in a place where it could have hurt people.

This is another reason why you should take severe thunderstorms seriously.  You'll often hear a mention of weak rotation within the oncoming storm. Much more often than not, when the rotation is weak, you won't get a tornado. But in the case of Loris County, South Carolina, and I am sure many other instance it did. And it could happen any time.

This was the second time within a week that a tornado struck a South Carolina high school. On January 11, a  EF-2 tornado with winds up to 130 mph hit North Central High School in Kershaw County, South Carolina. Security cameras there yielded even more dramatic videos than the parking lot tornado.

Because it was a weekend, nobody was in the school, so nobody was hurt.

Which is a good thing Since so many people are in schools, they can be dangerous places to be in tornadoes.

Back on March 1, 20017 an EF-4 tornado with top winds of 170 mph hit Enterprise High School in Alabama, killing eight students and injuring 50.

Here's the video:



Here's surveillance video of another high school hit at night a few days before the video of the one above in South Carolina. Glad nobody was in there. Hallways turned into dangerous wind tunnels:

New England Storm: Forecast Steady As She Goes

Areas in yellow can expect six inches or more of snow out this storm. Most
of the orange areas can expect a foot or more, at least according to
this National Weather Service forecast. Note the light blue
in far northern Vermont. That represents an inch or less of snow.

We continue on with our winter routine of watching and waiting on the next New England snow and ice storm and speculating as to whether forecasts will turn out to be accurate.

One thing that gives me confidence in the predictions for this latest storm is how consistent they are.  They are virtually unchanged from yesterday morning. This, of course, does not mean we won't be surprised.  

This will primarily be a central New England and central New York affair, with many of those spots still under the gun for a good foot of snow, with maybe some freezing rain thrown in for good measure.

The winter storm warnings for this storm go from northeastern Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey, up through most of southern and central New York, and on into southern Vermont and New Hampshire, and northern Massachusetts.

As of this morning, a dangerous ice storm was going on in southern Ontario, western New York and parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey.  Roads are a mess, there's already many reports of crashes, and people are worried about trees and power lines coming down.

That first wave of precipitation, in western New York, will slowly

Here in Vermont, it still looks like a tale of two climates, at least for a couple days. The southern end of the state is still in line for a good foot of snow. Up at the Canadian border, there will practically be nothing. We think.

In between, Rutland and Windsor counties have been upgraded to a winter storm warning, since a lot of that area has a good shot of seeing six inches or more of snow between now and Tuesday morning.

That ice out west probably won't make it to Vermont, aside from some freezing drizzle or light freezing rain possible overnight tonight in far southern parts of the state.

This storm will last a long time and winds will come from the east or northeast through most of it

That means the east slopes and summits of the Green Mountains from central Vermont south will be the big winners.  As mentioned yesterday, winds will be forced to rise up those slopes. Rising air cools. Cooler air can't hold as much moisture, so that wetness will come out of the sky as lots and lots and lots of snowflakes.

I could see a foot of snow falling as far north as Killington, and eight inches as far north as Sugarbush. No guarantees on this, but it's set up like that.

The first surge of snow will come at us during the day today, but it will gradually fade on its way into and through Vermont. By the time it reaches the Canadian border this evening,  expect basically flurries up there.

A stronger surge of snow will come down Monday as the storm consolidates along the New England coast. This is another tricky part, as the heaviest snow for these types of storms usually sets up north and west of the center.

But how far north and west of the storm's center?  The snow might concentrate a little further south and east in Massachusetts, or it could set up more in southern Vermont and eastern New York.  Or somewhere in between.

As the storm moves toward the northeast, this band of snow will be a moving target, so everybody in the winter storm warning area will get a decent blast of snow. It's just hard to tell who the big "winners" will be.

As the storm moves north, off the coast of Maine, I'm also wondering if that band of snow will move northward with it, coming into areas north of Route 2 in Vermont, especially east of the Champlain Valley. That's speculation at this point,  and a low chance of that happening, but something to watch.

There could still be some northern Vermont surprises, though the current forecasts of next to no snow on the Canadian border still looks good, and will probably be the outcome.

There's no big storms coming this week after this one goes by, but frequent disturbances will create chances for snow showers off and on through next weekend.

Saturday Tornadoes Not Quite As Bad As Feared

A tornado emerges from the rain in
Slovak, Arkansas Saturday. 

There were at least 11 reports of tornadoes in a zone between Texas and Tennessee on Saturday, but we got through the outbreak of severe weather without any super strong tornadoes. More importantly, there were not reports of deaths, either.

In the zone where most of the worst tornadoes were expected - northern Mississippi and western Tennessee, there was definitely some severe weather and a few tornadoes, but forecasts of large tornadoes didn't come to pass.

That's the kind of slightly off forecast I like. The moisture, atmospheric lift and wind shear just didn't come together perfectly enough to create a really bad tornado outbreak, and we can all be thankful for that.

There was damage and there were injuries with this storm system. In Arkansas, two mobile homes were destroyed and two occupants of one of them suffered minor injuries.

Some homes suffered quite a bit of  damage around Mesquite, Texas, near Dallas, due to a relatively weak tornado. Additional damage was reported in northern Louisiana, northern Mississippi and parts of Tennessee.

Video from Springhill, Louisiana, which you can see below, shows a tornado damaging buildings in an area of strip malls and businesses.

But this was not the disaster a lot of people feared.

Of course, this is the beginning of tornado season, so there's more to worry about. There's a risk of severe weather and tornadoes Tuesday in Texas, and in part of the South Wednesday, but preliminary forecasts don't call for a huge outbreak. After that, it looks like it will be relatively quiet in the severe weather department until at least March 24 or so.

Here's a video of a relatively weak, but still damaging tornado, and its aftermath, Saturday in Springhill, Louisiana:

United States Just Had Its Wettest Winter On Record. Floods Next?

The United States had its wettest winter on record, says NOAA
All the states in blue were wetter than normal. Dark blue
represents a much wetter than normal winter. 

For the United States as a whole, this past winter was the wettest on record. Which means floods.

Yeah, we already had 'em, especially in places like Tennessee and California.

But since a lot of the precipitation came down as snow in parts of the country, the high water will spread to those northern areas that are snowy at the moment.

Climatologists use the period from December 1 to February 28 to define winter.  During that time, precipitation averaged across the United States amounted to 9.01 inches. That barely exceeds the old record of 8.99 inches during the winter of 1997-1998.

This past winter, the wetness was distributed over almost the entire nation. The only places that were not wetter than average were Washington State, parts of the northern Rockies and New Mexico. Even there, precipitation was near average for the winter.

As mentioned, Tennessee, which seemed to be having floods every time you turned around this winter, not surprisingly had its wettest winter on record. Eighteen states, mostly in Midwest and Ohio and Tennesse valleys had a winter that was in the top 10 wettest.

Here in Vermont, it was the 11th wettest out of the past 124 winters.

The predominant weather pattern featured storms entering the West Coast of the United States and then heading east, then northeast toward the Great Lakes. This ensured that most places in the nation got precipitation from this parade of storms.

The wet winter continued a trend that became well established last year. Many cities near and east of the Mississippi River all the way to the Atlantic coast had their wettest year on record in 2018.

Writing in the Category 6 blog, Bob Henson said:

"Despite periods of intense drought in recent years, especially toward the Southwest - with the impacts worsened by rising temperatures - the overall trend over the last century has been toward wetter U.S. conditions. The 48-state annual precipitation average is now around 31 inches, compared to 29 inches a century ago."

A two-inch increase over 100 years might not seem like a lot, but it is if you consider you have to average out all the dry and wet spots yearly in a vast nation like the United States.

Much of the winter precipitation came down as snow in the northern tier of states near the Canadian border from Washington to Wisconsin, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and in far northern New England, especially northern Maine.

Snow depths are now great in many of these areas and the water content in the snow is high. That sets the stage for spring flooding.

California National Weather Service offices issued a statement Thursday saying that there's an elevated risk of spring flooding in much of the Golden State.

The snowpack in the Sierra Nevada is above average. If the spring is warm, or if there are unusual rains, the flooding could get pretty intense. There's already been quite a bit of flooding in California this winter from heavy rains, especially in the Russian River basin.

In Minnesota, where the deep snow has the equivalent of up to six inches of rain locked into it, National Weather Service forecasters are expecting the highest risk of flooding in years. In this state, a wet autumn made the soil soggy. Then a deep freeze at the end of January made the ground freeze to a pretty good depth, so runoff won't soak in easily.

Then February had record snows, and there's a good chance of two more really big snowfalls in the coming week. When it finally warms up in Minnesota, there's bound to be quite a bit of flooding.

Further south in Iowa, forecasters said snowmelt alone will probably be enough to cause flooding. If it's a rainy spring, it could turn disastrous.

It will be interesting to see what happens along the Mississippi River, especially if this spring is wet. It's already at flood stage in its lower half. Some areas along the river are at major flood stage.

Although that southern flood crest will start to head toward the Gulf of Mexico, will it recede enough once the snowmelt surge from the North, and crests from the Missouri and possibly the Ohio rivers move into the region.

Closer to home northern Maine, and to a slightly lesser extent northern New Hampshire, are at a pretty high risk of flooding this spring.

As of Thursday, Caribou, Maine had received 151 inches of snow this winter, and there was 45 inches - nearly four feet - on the ground. There's nine to 14 inches of rainfall equivalent in that northern Maine snowpack, so the flood risk there this spring is way above average.

Here in Vermont, the National Weather Service in South Burlington just issued its latest spring flood outlook on Thursday.

Spring flooding in Cambridge, Vermont in April, 2014. Depending
on weather patterns and precipitation, similar flooding could
hit the Green Mountain State later this spring. 

Vermont is on the edge of the deep snow in far northern New England.  That brings us to a bottom line above average flood threat in the Northeast Kingdom, north-central and much of eastern Vermont.

The rest of the state has a near average flood threat, but the risk of ice jam floods is pretty high on most rivers, since they have a lot of ice in them and there's lingering ice jams still in place from thaws earlier in the winter.

Storms in the forecast for the next week to ten days don't look like they will have huge amounts of precipitation, so we're probably safe in the short term.

Spring flooding in Vermont, if it happens, is most likely in late March or April, and how much high water comes depends on whether we get particularly heavy rain storms or sharp, strong spikes in temperature that would lead to rapid snow melt.

A slow snow melt with relatively dry weather will mean little if any flooding.

There's a great chance that Lake Champlain will reach the flood stage of 100 feet sometime this spring. The lake level is already above normal for this time of year, being at 96.73 feet as of this morning.

A minor lake flood is good for the ecosystem, but a larger one - perhaps a level of 101 feet or more - can really cause some damage. I'm doubting the lake will get that high this spring unless we get a TON of rain in the coming six weeks or so.  A repeat of the devastating 2011 Lake Champlain flood does not look like it's in the cards this year, which is a good thing.

Do Winter Hype Forecasts Kill The Ski Industry?

Stowe Mountain Resort posted this inviting photograph on Instagram
today. According to an Outside magazine article, ski areas like
Stowe often find themselves battling perceptions that weather
is too severe for skiing, which hurts the bottom line. 

When they tell you the wind chill is terrible, or the roads are glare ice or that you shouldn't travel because it's going to snow, do you cancel your plans?  

Often, that's a good thing to do. You don't want to be reckless.

To many others, this caution is not always a great thing. According to a recent article in Outside, over-hyped winter weather forecasts are damaging the ski industry. The article is worth the full read. 

According to Outside:

"'Negative weather reporting absolutely has an effect on ski area attendance,' says Kelly Pawlak, president of the National Ski Areas Association. It's especially true, she says, for smaller resorts near population centers that rely on the casual, two-or-three times per year skier. 'A negative report on Thursday can scrap a lot of upcoming wekeend ski plans for a resort that relies on day trips.'"

Anything that affects the ski industry here in Vermont is of course important. The Vermont Ski Areas Association said there were nearly 4 million skier days in the Green Mountain State last year, according to VTDigger.  A skier day is one person skiing one full day, which a standard way of counting business in the ski industry.

This winter has been good, so the number of recent visitors to Vermont might have gone up. We'll have to wait until the end of the season for statistics.

The Vermont Ski Areas Association says the industry creates about $900 million in direct spending, $120 million in taxes, reports VTDigger. The business supports 12,000 direct jobs and roughly 22,000 indirecrt jobs here.

Which leads us to the constant tension between reasonable warnings to people who would otherwise be careless with winter weather, and the tendency for many media outlets and weather geeks on social media to overhype winter cold and storms.

Ski enthusiasts tell Outside, and by extension the rest of us, that wind chill alerts are overdone. When you hear a forecast for 20 below wind chills, that doesn't mean it will constantly feel that cold out there. The 20 below "real feel" as some call it, come during peak gusts when the sun isn't out.

During these cold weather events, the wind chill is usually warmer than 20 below, plus the sun makes it feel a little warmer out. Plus, winter clothing is better than ever these days, shielding outdoor sports types from some of the worst weather winter can fling at us.

You've heard the saying: "It's not bad weather, it's bad clothing."  That logic is, if you get too cold and wet outdoors during the winter, it's because you're not wearing the right clothes.

Ski areas are lobbying meteorologists and other weather types about being careful with their winter forecasts and not being too negative.

Says Outside:

"In December, at one of the summits (to) combat negative winter weather reporting, the North American Snowsports Journalist Association organized an event for a dozen broadcast meteorologists at Stratton Mountain Resort (in Vermont).

The three-day event featured technical climate presentations, but also a discussion, led by a North Face employee, on layering, wind proofing, and other snowsports dress techniques. There was plenty of time for skiing and snowshoeing, too. 

The idea, says organizer Adam White, is to make weather journalists more comfortable with winter conditions and to reduce their bias on-air or even Instagram. 'Meteorologists are surprisingly popular on social media,' says White. 'Everyone wants to know about the weather.'"

In my opinion, there's a lot of things going on here. It's always complicated, and you're never going to make everybody happy.

First of all, there is indeed a tendency to overhype things, particularly on social media. Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and other platforms are rife with breathless reports of impending Blizzards of the Century. If you were to believe social media, the Blizzards of the Century come about once every hour.

Wind chill alerts become gloom and doom on social media, telling everyone that if they step outdoors for just one second in these conditions, they will magically turn into an ice cube from which they will never thaw.

The point is eyeballs and clicks. The more hype there is, the more potential clicks and the more money to be made. Social media is certainly not the most ethical place in the world.

On the other hand, Outside magazine caters mostly to people who know what they're doing. An experienced skiing, rider or snowshoe enthusiast, upon learning of a severe wind chill forecast, will just bring along the right gear and they'll be all set and happy.

But there's plenty of stupid people out there, too. You have to hammer home the dangers to people who think nothing of hopping into their cars in a light sweater when it's 30 below for a road trip in a blizzard. Then when they get stuck, they freeze, because they didn't prepare.

Still, the Outside article might prompt me to be a little more nuanced in my reports. Like most weather geeks, I get excited over the drama of storms and weather extremes. I try to keep it in my sneaker, but sometimes my thrill of the weather betrays me.

I can probably try to play to two audiences: One piece of my essays would play to the people who might not be so prepared for the weather, while the other side of me would tell people to go out and play in the extreme weather, if they're smart enough to do it.

God forbid I stop anyone from going out and playing in the snow if they can. Because frankly, the snow and ice that I can see out my window is a total waste unless we find a way to enjoy it.

What We Hear In Winter Storm Forecasts Depends Upon Our Psychology

A blizzard stops traffic in St. Albans, Vermont in March 2017.

A huge winter storm is socking the Southeast today with heavy snow, sleet, ice and wind. It's a real mess down there.

This most definitely won't be the last winter storm to affect the nation in the coming months. Some of the upcoming storms will obviously hit us here in Vermont - though there's nothing in the immediate forecast.

There's been some interesting articles out there lately about how we hear and how we react to winter storm forecasts (or any kind of weather alerts for that matter.)

We all laugh at the panic we see or think some people feel at the first hint of an oncoming storm. Gotta get the bread and milk! Bread and milk and eggs! It makes you think a snowstorm requires us to make French toast, or something.

That's just one small aspect of it.

Another aspect of winter storms is "wishcasting," as meteorologist, professor and writer Marshall Shepherd notes in Forbes. He's not the first person to come up with this term, but he explains it particularly well. If you're a person who likes snow, you focus on forecast for the deepest snow compared to all the other forecasts. If you hate snow, you do the same thing, although, as Quartz points out, is maybe called "awfulizing."

Says Quartz:

"Cognitive psychologist Dr. Albert Ellis, the pioneer of Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy in the 1950s first coined the term to describe the act of escalation, a situation into the moset negative possible conclusion, often with no concrete evidence to prove its validity."

Here's how it manifests itself in weather forecasts, and the actual storm. Say the forecast called for six to 12 inches of new snow. At your place, you "only" got six inches of snow. The storm prediction was accurate for your area, but you didn't get a foot of snow, so you think it's wrong. People tend to focus on the upper range, and not the lower range, Shepherd points on in Forbes.

We also focus on things that we're not used to. Shepherd lives in Atlanta. For this current storm in the Southeast, there was a mention of snow in the forecast for the Atlanta region, but mostly in the mountains to the northeast of the city.

The much greater threat from this storm in Atlanta was the risk of heavy rain and flooding, and strong winds that could knock down trees and power lines. But all anybody asked Shepherd in the days leading up to the storm was snow. Nobody seemed to care about the wind and rain.

I guess Atlanta is not used to snow, but certainly used to windy, wet storms.

Another area where people emphasize the extreme in winter storms is computer model forecasts and social media. Several days to a week or two before a storm, computer models start to hint at what might happen, but have certainly not pinned down the specifics of the potential storm.

A few computer models almost always spit out forecasts of extreme expected snowfall, ice, wind or whatever.  These forecasts are not realistic (garbage in, garbage out) and are not in line with what most forecasts are calling for.

But people inevitably post on social media the forecasts for the most extreme scenarios. It's great to raise interest and gather clicks and views, but does not do anything to spread accurate information.

Hmmm. It's as if you can't believe everything you read on the Internet. Whodathunk?

Stick to meteorologists you know and trust, and who are not given to too much excitement and exaggeration. You figure out which ones are good soon enough, trust me.

Oh, and that bread and milk I mentioned above? They're bad choices to stock up on ahead of a storm. Milk goes bad if the electricity goes out and the refrigerator dies. Bread doesn't have great nutritional value.

The better choices is to hunker down with, especially if you're expecting a long period of time with blocked roads, no electricity and other hazards, are foods that are nutritious and can be stored without refrigeration or being needed to cook, notes Accuweather. 

Instant oatmeal, mashed potatoes, and cup soups are good, especially if you know you're going to have a supply of clean water. Cans of tuna and things like that are good, too.

You should also have at least a gallon of water per person ready ahead of a storm, with extra water for pets. If you don't know if the water is perfectly clean, you can boil it for a few minutes before using, if you have a heat source. You can also buy purifying tablets at camping stores.

It also does not hurt if you've got a great supply of heating fuel for your home before the storm, and your car and truck should have a full tank of gas.

Of course, these last few paragraphs I've written make it seem like life is a perpetual emergency. As we know, it's not. Just remember this: The next time a winter storm warning goes up for your area,  it's not the end of the world. A little smart preparation, though, goes a long way.

A "New" Weather Alert This Winter: Snow Squall Warning

A big pileup in Toronto, Canada in 2015 was caused by a snow squall.

Snow flurries dusted much of Vermont yesterday. None were heavy, and none came in the form of the more dangerous heavy snow squall.

But snow squalls are inevitable, and they'll happen this winter. They're basically intense, short-lived localized bursts of very heavy snow.

They are dangerous because they can lead to sudden white outs and suddenly iced over roads on highways. You can go from clear and dry to icy and very blurry in an instant.

Seven National Weather Service offices, including the one here in Vermont, tested a new snow squall warning system last winter, and now everywhere in the nation that can get snow squalls will be subject to snow squall warnings.

The snow squall warnings are much like severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings. They'll usually cover a small area, such as a county or small collection of counties. The warnings will tell you where the snow squall is, where it's heading, which highways it will affect, and what to do about it.

For instance, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington might issue something roughly like this:

"Snow Squall Warning for Chittenden and Franklin Counties. At 1:30 p.m a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from Alburgh, Vermont to Plattsburgh and Port Kent, New York, moving east at 40 mph.
Hazard: Heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts to 35 mph. Source: Radar indicated. Impact: Dangerous, life-threatening travel.
This snow squall will be near St. Albans at 1:40 p.m., South Hero by 1:45 p.m and Burlington at around 1:55 p.m. Consider avoiding or delaying travel until the snow squall passes your location. If you must travel, use extra caution and allow extra time. Rapid changes in visibillity and slick road conditions may lead to accidents."

Your weather radio or other weather warning device will go off when a snow squall warning is issued for your area, just like it does when a severe thunderstorm is bearing down on you.

The NWS in Burlington, as I recall, issued one snow squall warning last winter during the experimental phase of this program. I'm sure we'll hear more this winter.

Weather radar has gotten much better at picking up localized hazards like snow squalls. There's better satellite data, improved Doppler radar, and more accurate weather models that help the National Weather Serice detect snow squalls and other hazards.

Snow squalls are a big cause of often fatal and large scale highway crashes. With all these things in mind, the National Weather Service decided snow squall warnings make sense. I wholeheartedly agree.

Today Is Peak Of Hurricane Season. This Year, It REALLY Is

Today's satellite snapshot of Hurricane Florence depicts a
menacing, strengthening, dangerous storm. 

Today, September 10, is often regarded as the exact peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. If you're going to have hurricanes, this is the date they are probably most likely.

This year, today, we've got three of them: Florence, Helene and Isaac. All full-fledged hurricanes.

Obviously, Florence is the one everybody really has their eyes on because it's such a threat to the East Coast. But we'll break things down one by one.

I'll get into Florence in a minute, but first, some more local weather for today:

EX-GORDON

The remains of Tropical Storm Gordon remain embedded in a storm system that was around Pennslyvania this morning. Much of that state is under flood warnings due to the heavy rain with this system. It's been a terrible summer in Pennsylvania. Every time I turn around, there's another flood there.

One example: Harrisburg, Pennsylvania has had about 47 inches of rain so far this year. That's about 19 inches more than they should have had by now.

Luckily for Pennsylvania, Ex-Gordon should start to move out of Pennsylvania later today. Luckily for us Vermonters, Ex-Gordon still looks like it's going to hit us later today and tonight.

We so desperately need the rain, and this will be a good one. Instead of short, sharp bursts of torrential rain we've had in scattered thunderstorms all summer, this storm will involve at least 12 consecutive hours of steady light to moderate rain.

That's the kind of rain that soaks into the ground nicely. Most of us here in Vermont can expect one to two inches of rain, with locally more in southern Vermont.

Enjoy the rain while you can. Despite this storm, we're still in the overall pattern we've had all summer, with a high pressure ridge in the upper atmosphere near or over us. After the rain tapers off Tuesday morning, expect no more precipitation at least through Sunday.

FLORENCE MENACES

Hurricane Florence, as expected, was rapidly intensifying this morning. Top sustained winds were at 105 mph early this morning, but those are expected to go up to a terrifying 150 mph by Wednesday.

The expected path of Florence hasn't changed much since yesterday, and at the moment, North Carolina seems to be in Florence's crosshairs. The path could still shift to the north or south before we get to Thursday, when the hurricane is expected to make landfall.

Most forecasters expect Florence to still be a major, dangerous hurricane by the time it reaches North Carolina or thereabouts. There is a chance strong upper level winds could weaken Florence just before it reaches shore, but that won't matter much.

Sure, weakening, if it happens, will reduce wind damage somewhat. But the principal threat from Florence, and any other landfalling hurricane for that matter, is a coastal storm surge and inland flooding.

Weakening might or might not happen, but either way, coastal areas will see severe storm surges. Florence is also still expected to slow down or stall once it gets inland a bit, which will trigger massive amounts of rain with potentially catastrophic flooding.

People in the Carolinas are already preparing for this mess, as well they should be. Things are not looking good.

HURRICANE HELENE

Helene is expected to be comparatively well behaved. It's way out over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, with top winds of about 85 mph. Happily, Helene is expected to turn toward due north, far away from any major land areas. Once it goes north Helene will weaken and die by next week over colder North Atlantic waters. Buh-bye!

WILDCARD ISAAC

Hurricane Isaac, with top winds of 75 mph, is expected to strengthen, at least temporarily as it heads due west toward the Lesser Antilles islands and eventually the Caribbean Sea. Forecasters are prett confident that Isaac will keep heading nearl due west, but nobody can agree on whether it will strengthen or weaken, or when any of those trends might happen.

Isaac is small in size, so it's prone to rapid changes in intensity. Many computer models have it weakening to a tropical storm once it's in the Caribbean. Other models turn it into a monster. We'll see how that goes.

On top of all this, Hurricane Olivia is still threatening Hawaii in the Pacific Ocean. And a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico might or might not develop into something in the coming days.

Florence And All Kinds Of Tropical Threats

Busy satellite map of the Atlantic. Click on the image to make it
bigger and easier to see. From left to right: Mass of clouds over
Midwest is former Tropical Storm Gordon The yellow X is
a disturbance that's not expected to amount to much. Then
we have Florence, then soon-to-be Tropical Storm Isaac,
then Tropical Storm Helene near the African coast. 

You'll have to forgive me, but this blog will be mostly about tropical storms and hurricanes for awhile as the peak of hurricane season has hit with a vengeance.

It was supposed to be a quiet year for hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, but for the time being, it's most certainly not.

There's all kinds of things to talk about. The eastern Pacific Ocean is a mess, too, with tropical storms and hurricanes buzzing around.

So let's get to it with our Saturday update:

EX-TROPICAL STORM GORDON

As I expected, the remains of Tropical Storm Gordon is causing a LOT more trouble than it did when it was an actual tropical storm along the Gulf Coast several days ago.

The former Gordon is dumping horrible amounts of rain in the Midwest, and this trend will continue big time today. A weather front associated with ex-Gordon is spreading downpours into the already soggy Middle Atlantic states too. This is bad, because that could be setting the stage for cataclysmic flooding if Hurricane Florence comes along later next week. (More on that in a minute.)

There's a high risk of flooding in parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio today, which is the top level alert put out by NOAA's Weather Prediction Center when it assesses flood risks.

Four to eight inches of rain is expected today in much of this region, which has had repeated bouts of downpours over the past few weeks. Flooding is basically inevitable, and it could easily become severe and life threatening.

Gordon's flood threat will likely extend more into Ohio and Pennsylvania tomorrow. 

As noted yesterday, Ex-Gordon will actually be good for us here in Vermont. Forecasters are hopeful that it will dump one to two inches of rain on the drought landscape of central and northern Vermont Monday and Monday night.

The storm could also cause some gusty winds along the west slopes of the Green Mountains. That might cause a couple branches and maybe an isolated power failure or two, but with the rain, it will be worth it.

HURRICANE FLORENCE

As noted yesterday, high upper level winds did a number on Hurricane Florence, reducing it to a sloppy mess of a tropical storm with top winds of only 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Florence this morning. After being torn into a mess
 by upper level winds over the past couple of days, the storm
is now looking more symmetrical, a sign that it will soon
restrengthen, possibly rapidly. 

Those upper level winds are easing this morning, and Florence is definitely reviving, according to this morning's statement from the National Hurricane Center. 

Strong thunderstorms near the core of the storm are growing, and Florence is getting more organized again. It will almost certainly be a hurricane again by tomorrow.

Florence is heading westward into a zone with light upper level winds and hot ocean water. This is a perfect environment for hurricanes and Florence is expected to intensify quickly.

It could even achieve Category 5 status - the strongest and most dangerous hurricane type possible.

Which puts the East Coast in the United States in peril. Florence has certainly been unpredictable, but  at the moment, all guidance wants to push Florence toward the East Coast. It's still impossible to know whether it will plow ashore or curve to the north and miss the United States for a close miss.

If it does crash ashore, nobody is sure where. The first guess right now is somewhere near the Carolinas but that's iffy. If it does threaten the United States, it won't be until near the end of this coming week. Stay tuned on this one, because it has the potential to turn into another hurricane nightmare for the United States.

Even after its winds die down, the risk for torrential rains on saturated soil makes me too nervous to think about

By the way, nobody has any idea whether Florence will have any effects here in Vermont.

TROPICAL STORM HELENE

This time of year, disturbances come off the west coast of Africa and then move westward into the open Atlantic. Often, a few days after they leave Africa, these disturbances become tropical storms or hurricanes.

It's very rare that a disturbance will turn into a tropical storm almost immediately after leaving Africa, but Tropical Storm Helene has done just that. It's still only got winds of 45 mph, but Helene is expected to strengthen rapidly into a hurricane.

The good news is early indications are the Helene will curve to the north far out over the Atlantic Ocean and miss most populated areas.  Of course, we originally thought Florence would do that, so it's worth it to keep a watch on Helene.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE

Another disturbance moved off the west African Coast a few days ago and it's now getting its act together to the west of Helene. It's now called Tropical Depression Nine, but will soon be named Tropical Storm Isaac.

This one really bears watching. It's expected to move pretty much due west over the next five days and approach the Lesser Antilles Islands in about five to six days as a hurricane. From there, it's anybody's guess, but this one could threaten ultimately threaten places like Puerto Rico again. (ugh!) and possibly the mainland United States.

It's too soon to speculate, but this could be a worrisome one.  There is plenty of time for it to decide to miss land, so we don't have to panic over Isaac yet.

HURRICANE OLIVIA

Meanwhile, in the Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Olivia is spinning way out there with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph as of this morning. It's slowly weakening, but still could approach Hawaii early next week, so we'll have to watch that.

Tropics Starting To Bubble Before Hurricane Season Even Hits

From left to right: Hurricanes Katia, Irma and Jose last year. 

Last year in the Atlantic Ocean, the hurricane season was horrific.

Harvey. Irma. Maria. I shudder just thinking about those deadly, destructive storms.

Hurricane season starts May 15 in the eastern Pacific Ocean and June 1 in the Atlantic Ocean, but there are already signs that things might start to get active soon, even before the officials start of the tropical storm season.

There won't be anything like Harvey or Maria in the near future, thank goodness, but there a couple things worth watching

There's a decent chance a tropical storm could form in the eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico in the coming days. Most of storms that form there don't hit land but a few do. If this particular disturbance forms, it will be the second year in a row a tropical storm formed there before the May 15 "official" start to the season.

In any event, if this storm gets going, forecasters say it won't last long and won't hit land.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, some computer models are suggesting something might get going in the western Caribbean Sea late next week. I'm not counting on it though. Other computer models have nothing there next week.

However, water temperatures in the western Caribbean are warmer than normal for this time of year and are toasty enough to support tropical storms. Also, this time of year, the jet stream is usually far enough south to rip apart any tropical storms that try to form in the Caribbean, but the jet stream is expected to be further north than usual for a time next week, which could offer a window for tropical storm development.

Off the coast of Chile, a subtropical storm formed this week. That's very rare, since ocean waters off the Chilean coast are usually too cold to support any kind of tropical system. (Tropical storms and hurricanes need very warm water to form and thrive.)

A rare subtropical storm off the coast of Chile this week.

Subtropical storms have characteristics of both tropical storms and normal average everyday storm systems.

Such a storm had not been seen off the coast of Chile until now. Some may have formed in the past, though, before there was decent satellite imagery coming from that area in the southern hemisphere.

Even if the hurricane season gets off to an early start, that doesn't necessarily mean this will be a busy, destructive season. It's partly a matter of luck. If any big hurricanes form, will they stay out to sea or hit land?  Will weather conditions and water temperatures conspire to give birth to lots of storms later this year? Nobody knows for sure.

For what it's worth, Colorado State University puts out hurricane season forecasts every year, and they're predicting a slightly above normal season in the Atlantic. The Weather Company, parent of the Weather Channel, predicts a near average season. 

One thing to note: Some of last year's most destructive Atlantic hurricanes developed explosively. They went from nothingburgers to monsters in days or even hours.   Some scientists are saying this kind of rapid, dangerous development could become more common as oceans warm under the influence of global warming.

Meanwhile, we're in the heart of the severe storm and tornado season in the United States. So far, it hasn't been too bad. As of today, there have been 317 reports of tornadoes in the United States in 2018. That sounds like a lot, but it's actually below average.

Maybe that trend will continue?

Sunday Evening Storm Update: Huge Winds Biggest Threat Later Tonight

Water vapor imagery from the National Weather Service
shows an incredibly dynamic storm taking shape in the East
as of late Sunday afternoon. 

As I'm writing this at around 4:30 p.m Sunday, I hope you're locating your flashlights and re-charging your cell phones and such because it is going to be a very windy and loud late Sunday night and first half of Monday in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast.

This storm that's coming in, originally billed as a flood threat, is turning into more of a damaging wind event for the region.

Flooding is still a good bet, especially in parts of New York, New Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania and I think parts of New Hampshire and Maine. Already, flood warnings are up for a wide swath of New Jersey, and the heaviest rain is just now reaching that state. They have hours of downpours to go.

The New York City metro area is also very much under the gun for flash flooding overnight.

The wind is going to be the big weather maker with this storm, though. If anything, signals have become stronger and stronger all day that we're in for a big blow. That's here in Vermont and also much of the rest of the Northeast.

So far the wind hasn't been that bad, and has been fitful. But that was expected as the main action will come late tonight and Monday morning. (It'll probably begin sooner than that in southern New England and Long Island.)

Still, it's already beginning. As of late this afternoon, gusts have reached 43 mph in East Berkshire, Wells, and Underhill, Vermont, says the National Weather Service office in Burlington, Vermont. This happened many hours before the conditions become ripe for the strongest winds.

As of 5 p.m. there were already 400 or so Vermont homes and businesses without power, mostly in Addison County. Again, this is many hours before the main event arrives.

While the entire Northeast will have damaging wind gusts and power failures, there are areas in particular where the wind will be especially strong.

Those places will be all coastal locations on Long Island, all of the New England coast, on up into parts of the Maritime provinces of Canada.  Winds in a few of these spots could easily gust past 70 mph. Along the coasts, the strongest winds will come through between roughly 10 p.m. tonight and 4 a.m. Monday, though later up toward Maine.

Other areas under the gun for wind gusts of up to 70 mph or maybe even more are along the western slopes of the Green Mountains in Vermont, parts of the northern Adirondacks, and downslope wind zones in parts of Vermonts's Northeast Kingdom and northwestern New Hampshire.

Here in Vermont, if you live in towns like Bakersfield, Jericho, Underhill, Cambridge, Huntington, Richmond, Bristol, and communities just east of Rutland will probably be especially hard hit.

The dynamics of this storm are so strong that we'll have to watch late tonight and tomorrow morning for some of these west slope of the Green Mountains winds to extend further west, with possible gusts to 60 mph in the more populated communities of Rutland City and Town, Middlebury, the Burlington metro area and St. Albans City and Town. No guarantees the wind gusts will get that strong there, but it's something to watch.

No matter what, the wind will howl, and this will be a bigger blow than our standard type of windy storm.

A band of heavy rain will probably precede the strongest winds. A punch of drier air looks like it's going to wrap into the storm system late tonight and early Monday. That would make it a little easier for screaming strong winds a few thousand feet above us to mix down to where we live in the form of sporadic strong gusts.

It also looks like a cold front of sorts will form Monday morning and pass through the Champlain Valley with more strong to damaging and shifting winds

Power failures and tree damage in the hardest hit areas of Vermont and other parts of the Northeast will probably be pretty extensive, and I wouldn't be surprised if some areas have no electricity for one, two, possibly even three days. (Though I think most places will get power back within hours, or less than a day.)

Vermont Emergency Management put out a helpful checklist of things to do this evening before the storm, and during it.

Among them:

1. If you haven't put aware or secured outdoor objects like lawn furniture and Halloween decorations, do it now, before the wind really gets cranking.

2. Have headlamps, flashlights and LED and battery operated candles ready to go and easy to find in the dark. If the power goes out, it will probably be while it's dark. Don't use regular flame candles. They could cause fires. And as I said, charge up those electronic devices.

3. Be ready for a rough morning commute. If you can, avoid driving while the wind is strongest, as it's harder to control your car in wind gusts, and trees and branches and power lines might be falling on roads. Be prepared for fallen trees on roads. And don't drive over fallen power lines. That's dangerous. Also, watch out for flooded roads.

4. If you use a generator, make sure it's running well away from the house, and certainly not in it. If you do, you could easily die of carbon monoxide poisoning.

It will remain gusty all during the day Monday, but you'll start to notice the strongest winds dying down a bit in the afternoon and evening. The strongest winds for most of us will come out of the south and east overnight and tomorrow morning, then shift to westerly. The strongest winds in much of northern New York will happen once the wind shifts to the west on Monday.