Vermont Storm Update: Still Very Windy, Wet And Wet-Snowy Thursday

National Weather Service updated snowfall prediction map issued
Wednesday afternoon. It still looks like this is going to be
an elevation snowstorm in Vermont. Click on the map
to make it bigger and easier to see. Yellow and orange
areas should expect more than six inches of snow.

Since this is going to be a pretty good storm, it's worth updating the situation, as you're going to see a lot of rain and/or snow Thursday morning. Some of us will also see a ton of wind.  You'll need to deal with it, so here you go:

THE SETUP 

This afternoon, light north winds funneled chilly air southward down the Champlain Valley, so it ended up being cooler today than expected.  (Elsewhere in Vermont, the low level cool air couldn't make it in, so today's highs ended up in the mid to upper 30s, as forecast.

This subfreezing air today, along with occasional light snow, doesn't really mean the Champlain Valley is in for a colder, snowier storm than expected tonight and tomorrow.  In fact, as of late afternoon, the snow flurries here in St. Albans had already changed to a some light sleet, mixed with a few drops of freezing rain.  That's an indication that a surge of warmer air is on its way.

For most of tonight, at least until midnight, any precipitation that does fall will be very light and spotty.  It's not until the storm pushes in from the southwest, with its strong weather front, that heavy precipitation will get going after midnight.

HEAVY RAIN/SNOW

That front will initially bring a surge of somewhat milder air, so the heavy stuff that comes down in the valleys early Thursday seems like it will be mostly rain. However, with the weather front and storm itself strengthening as it comes in, that could cool the atmosphere a bit to produce wet snow, so it's no guarantee the valleys will be mostly rain.  Let's just call that rain scenario likely, but it's possible you could be surprised.

If it is mostly rain, it come down hard for a time in the morning. There's still a fair amount of ice and snow on the ground in northern areas.  Storm drains are clogged with ice, too. Expect some urban flooding with this rain, if the forecast comes out as expected.  More than half an inch of rain in just a few hours is expected, which would be enough to cause that kind of problem on town and city streets, and maybe basements.

River and stream flooding won't be much of an issue because a large share of the precipitation that will come down in the higher elevations will be snow.

The higher in elevation you go, the more likely you are to get snow.  It still doesn't look like there will be much in mid-elevations, say around 1,000 feet. Those areas could manage a couple or thre einches. However, it's still possible we'd get a surprise with more, but so far, it's looking like a no.

If you're up above 2,000 feet in elevation in most of Vermont, you've got a great shot of getting six inches or more of snow.  Snowfall rates up there could be in the one to two inch per hour range. Especially given that it will probably be a relatively wet and heavy snow, I wouldn't drive toward the mountains Thursday morning.

HIGH WINDS

Wind gust forecast from the National Weather Service in South Burlington
That dark orange stripe along the western slopes of the Green Mountains
in eastern Rutland and Addison counties forecast gusts of at
least 60 mph early Thursday. Lighter orange shading indicates
gusts of at least 40 mph. 

Adding to this mix is the expectations that winds could get quite strong on the immediate western slopes of the Green Mountains. I mentioned this in this morning's post, and everything still seems to be aligning toward those winds.  

The strongest winds would come before or near dawn in Rutland and Addison counties, closest to those western slopes.

Winds could easily gust past 60 mph. With some snow loading on trees and power lines in higher spots, this is a recipe for power problems in and near communites like Mount Holly, Shrewsbury, Mendon, Goshen, Chittenden, Brandon and Starksboro.

Those high winds along the western slopes will spread north around or just after dawn to western slope communities like Huntington, Bolton, Jericho, Underhill, Cambridge and Bakersfield.

In those towns the wind will be a little lighter than points south along the Greens, but the gusts will be enough to risk some power line and tree issues.

The bottom line is you should prepare for a complicated Thursday morning commute, regardless of whether you get mostly rain, mostly snow, or strong winds.  You might want to charge your devices ahead of time, in case the power goes out.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON

After the front passes, heading north and east, precipitation everywhere will change to snow but become lighter. Winds will become somewhat lighter, but remain gusty. Temperatures Thursday afternoon should keep falling through the 30s and well down into the 20s.

Given that, when you're returning home from work Thursday evening, expect slick spots from continued light snow, and water from the morning freezing on roads.

INTERESTING POST-STORM ACTION

Perhaps the most interesting aspects of this storm will actually be something that will happen after the storm actually passes by.  It could have some effects here in Vermont, but first I need to set things up for you.

The storm will head north into Quebec, and there will be strong west winds behind the storm.  As I mentioned this morning, the Great Lakes aren't frozen like they usually are this time of year.  The strong winds, unstable air and the open waters of the lakes will set up some huge lake effect storms downwind from the lakes.

There's strong indications that an epic lake effect snow band will generate itself on Lake Superior, get more energy as it moves east-southeast across Lake Huron, then heads due east across Lake Ontario into the areas near and south of Watertown, New York.

This is especially true south of Watertown in the infamous snow belt area called the Tug Hill Plateau. They are so going to get slammed.

There's a blizzard warning for this area near and south of Watertown for an expected three to four feet of snow on the Tug Hill Plateau and one to two feet in surrounding areas.  This will be propelled by winds gusting to 50 to 60 mph.  You can imagine the huge drifts, zero visibility and difficulties with this situation.

Vermont won't get anything like that. But I've seen that in cases where there's such a powerful lake effect band with such strong winds, some Vermont higher elevations can get quite a bit of snow.

The lake effect snow band, while slightly weakened will extend across the Adirondacks. Generally, the remains of these snow bands skip the Champlain Valley as the Adirondacks block the moisture associated with these snow squalls.  Still, little upper level disturbances in this fast west to east flow behind the storm can help bring some snow from this lake effect into the Champlain Valley.

People in the Champlain Valley won't get much snow out of this, but an inch or two of accumulation could slicken up the roads Thursday night and Friday.  Just sayin'.

The real point of this little story is what happens when the remains of this snow band hit the central and northern Green Mountains. Since this thing is pretty narrow, not everybody in the mountains will get a lot of snow. But in my opinion there's the potential for six or more inches of snow somewhere in the mountains of northern Vermont after the main storm.

All because of this lake effect snow band.  The snow band could move back and forth for a time spreading some snow through the entire Green Mountain chain north of Killington. Or it could focus on a specific area and really come down.  Parts of the Northeast Kingdom could also get in on this action, especially since weather patterns suggest the atmospher might interact with parts of the lake effect stuff up there.

It's not certain all this will happen. But I think it might. The National Weather Service in South Burlington isn't focusing on this right now, because they have their hands full with the immediate storm.  This post-storm snow thingy is just something to watch.

Mostly because it could help make for another great weekend of  skiing and riding, between Thursday's high elevation snow and the post-storm snow showers.

AFTER THAT

It'll be a pretty chilly, wintry weekend across Vermont, which is to be expected as the calendar just turns from February to March. But another period of warm-ish weather seems likely for the first half of next week.  Again, that's something you have to expect now that we're getting into March.

Big Storm Winding Down Tonight In Vermont

It seemed like my house and truck in St. Albans, Vermont were gradually
 disappearing beneath deepening snow today despite my futile
efforts to keep shoveling. 

Given that the big storm we had today in Vermont was a nightmare to forecast, I'm impressed by how close the National Weather Service and other area meteorologists were able to predict accurately, well in advance, what would happen with this thing.

As forecast, the snow moved in from northwest to southeast starting early this morning and continuing through the day.

The band of heaviest snow came through in the late morning to mid afternoon, which several reports of one to three inch per hour snowfall rates.

As of 4 p.m. today, I measured 11 inches of new snow at my place in St. Albans, Vermont today. Combined with the 2.1 inches of snow that fell yesterday, the storm total so far is 13.1 inches. It was still snowing at that hour, though somewhat less intensely than it did earlier. The bottom line is I'll come very close to the roughly 18 inches of new snow the National Weather Service office in South Burlington said I would get.

As of 4:55 p.m., the National Weather Service in South Burlington reported 11.5 inches of snow just today so far, for a two day total of 14.1 inches. I guess the Champlain Valley had some pretty uniform storm totals, although down toward Middlebury, there was definitely less snow than further north.

Snow totals taper off a lot as you head south and east across Vermont, as expected.

The only slight things off with the forecast were that ice accumulation was a bit heavier than expected last night in parts of the Champlain Valley. And the changeover to snow in the northwestern half of Vermont came just a wee bit earlier than expected, but not by much.

It appears the ice was also more destructive east of the Green Mountains than originally anticipated.  As of 5 p.m. Friday, Vermont Outage Map was reporting at least 13,000 homes and businesses without power, with most of those problems along and east of the Green Mountains from Caledonia County southward.

It looks like freezing rain, followed by snow that was initially wet and heavy, plus gusty northwest winds did a number on trees and power lines there.  

A snow covered car guns up equally snowy Fairfield Hill Road
in St. Albaans on Friday. 

As happy as I am with the accurate, user-friendly job the National Weather Service and area meteorologists did with this storm, I have a really serious bone to pick with some employers in Vermont.

Outfits like the University of Vermont and the state of Vermont government - at least parts of it - made people come to work this morning.

Then, when, as expected, the snow got intense and the roads became almost impassable, these idiot employers said, "Hey, Guess what?!? We're sending you home now. The storm is bad." 

Well, duh!

So, people had to drive home on unsafe roads in minimal visibility during the height of the storm.  Why did UVM and other not just have people not come to work this morning? Don't use the excuse, "Well, the roads weren't that bad at 8 a.m.!"

Never mind that every single Vermont weather forecast I came across this morning - all the TV meteorologists in Vermont, Eye On the Sky, the National Weather Service - were basically screaming that things would get out of hand with the weather by mid-morning. And that's exactly what happened.

I guess these employers don't give a crap about their employees' safety.

Kudos, by the way, to my supervisor at Gardener's Supply, where I work, who called me before 8 a.m. and told me not to come to work because of the weather.  Which meant I avoided a terrible, potentially dangerous commute back and forth between St. Albans and Burlington, Vermont.

 (I asked UVM about all this by responding to their Twitter message about the midday closure, but  as of late this afternoon, Twitter was refusing to let me post anything or receive messages and notifications. I don't know why.)

This evening, if you're home, stay there. Yes, the storm is winding down, but it will probably keep snowing until around midnight. True, it won't come down nearly as heavily as it did earlier today, but the flakes will keep flying. Gusty winds through the night will keep the snow blowing around too.

On top of that, this was a pretty big snowfall, at least in northwestern Vermont. It's also icy further south. Road crews were working pretty damn hard as of late Friday afternoon, but it will take a while to clean up this mess.

Vermont Emergency Management today did give one good reason why you might want to leave the house this evening.  That would be to check on your elderly neighbors.  Do they have heat? Do they need a path out of house through the snow? Are they OK?

After you're done with that, just go back inside and binge watch Netflix or something.

Also, in areas where the snow is pretty deep now, clear the powder away from vents. You don't want carbon monoxide backing up into the house. That oderless gas is a killer, you know.

In the wake of the storm, we'll have some pretty chilly air to deal with. It'll get close to zero tonight, with wind chills well below zero. It'll only get into the teens at best Saturday, and by Sunday morning, it'll be 5 to 15 below in most areas of the state.  That's the coldest it's been all winter, although that's not extreme by Vermont standards.

A brief warmup Monday means many valley locations will have some minor thawing. Say goodbye to the powder, though as the snow settles and gets wetter then freezes up a bit.

More periods of snow and snow showers will continue on and off all of next week, but there won't be any major storms or blockbuster accumulations.

It's February, deal with it.

Wicked Ugly Weather Friday In Vermont. Stay Home!

Storm total map for snow accumulation, updated early Friday
morning. Snow could reach a depth of more than a foot
across the northwest.  Strong winds will blow
the snow around, too. This comes after freezing rain
and sleet early this morning. 

On this February Friday in Vermont we're faced with a storm in which forecasts issued early this morning for your area will probably be at least a little wrong.

However, any little inaccuracies don't really matter with this storm.

The bottom line is, it's a very ugly out there an it will get even uglier as the day wears on.  This is totally a day that you will either want to work from home or just call in sick, if possible.

You won't want to be out in the roads anywhere in or near Vermont today.

In most of the state and surrounding areas, you will experience sleet, freezing rain, then heavy snow, blowing snow, whiteouts, strong winds and plunging temperatures.

The combination, at least in my opinion, makes this just about the worst type of storm to be caught out in.

But, you're perfectly safe if you just stay home.  I just went through the list of today's school closings at the Vermont Public Radio web site and it's an awfully long list.  I'm pretty sure your town's school is closed today.

The overall forecast scenario for this storm is the same as last night with one big question: What will be falling from the sky and when?  That will have a big influence on how much ice accumulates on roads, trees and power lines. It will also determine whether you get only a few inches of snow at your house or a foot and a half. We do know precipitation, whatever it is, will come down really hard at times.

There are big timing questions as to when mixed precipitation will go over to snow in any one spot in Vermont today.  If it changes over even an hour later than forecast, you get more ice, but much less snow accumulation.  If the change comes an hour or two earlier than predicted, you get a few inches of extra snow.

It's really impossible to time the changeover super accurately with this type of storm.

Like I said, though, it doesn't really matter what falls from the sky at any given minute today.  No matter what, it's beyond lousy.

THE DETAILS:

Ice accumulations in central Vermont might be enough to break
some trees and power lines. (Red areas especially).

Overnight, the mixed precipitation, though light, made it northward all the past the Canadian border.

At my house in St. Albans, we had a glaze of freezing drizzle overnight. As of 5:30 a.m., that changed to heavier showers of mixed sleet and freezing rain.

Snow was increasing in northern New York as of 6 a.m. today. Radar indicated the rate of snowfall was rapidly increasing over northwestern New York.

As this heavy band of precipitation becomes established, it will intensify and move east into Vermont.  It will bring sharply colder air with it, changing mixed precipitation to snow over northwestern Vermont first. Then the snow will head south and east across the state.

For this morning's commute, things will go from iffy to much worse as the morning wears on. The best guess from the National Weather Service in South Burlington is that snow will reach the Burlington area by around 9 or 10 a.m. today, Montpelier around noon, and early to mid afternoon in southern Vermont.

As of 6:50 a.m., at least, this scenario seems pretty accurate, as snow was beginning to mix in with the sleet and freezing rain up here in St. Albans, the northwestern corner of Vermont.

As this changeover happens, the rate of precipitation will increase as this storm, already strong, really cranks up. Whatever falls from the sky will come down pretty hard. This type of storm  often sets up narrow, intense bands of precipitation  on its northwest flank, which we will be in.  So, one town might end up with say, 15 inches of snow, while a community just 20 miles to the west or east gets maybe six inches.

Before the changeover, ice could accumulate on trees in power lines in south central Vermont enough to create some power failures, so be ready for that. In the north, there won't be enough ice to cause many problems in tha regard, but high winds later today could be an issue.

The intense storm center will move over western Massachusetts and into coastal Maine this afternoon. If  you have a barometer, check it out this afternoon. It will be awfully low. Strong storms usually create strong winds, so you'll feel that later today.

By the time the wind begins to howl by this afternoon, it will have snowed quite a bit in northern Vermont, and many areas in northern Vermont will see snowfall rates of one or two inches per hour. That's very heavy snow. Those strong winds, gusting as high as 40 mph risk causing whiteout conditions this afternoon and evening. Yet another reason to not go out.

By the way, this winter storm is not just a Vermont issue, of course. Southern Quebec, northern New York, much of New Hampshire and most of Maine also face heavy snow, strong winds and ice.

Back here in Vermont, It'll be rough this evening, but snow will taper off and end overnight, as it gets very cold.  If you're digging out Saturday morning, dress for it.  The day will start with temperatures of near zero degrees.

Vermont Evening Storm Update: Deep Snow NW; Ugly Mix Then Snow Elsewhere

The latest National Weather Service snow forecast map.  Notice
the change from this morning: The heaviest snow is further
north and west. 

Often, you can tell whether a storm will have a big impact on Vermont as it comes up the coast by looking what happens in the southeastern United States.

If things are ugly in the Southeast, then there's a good chance we'll have a humdinger of a storm hours later in northern New England.

Today, the Southeast was plagued by a series of severe storms and tornadoes. Flash flooding is also widespread down there.

This storm has a lot of moisture to work with. So yeah, Vermont's going to get quite a bit of precipitation between now and Friday night.

Where you are in Vermont and surrounding areas really depends upon precisely where you are. The far northwestern part of the state looks like it will get buried in snow, according to updated National Weather Service forecasts late this afternoon. The further south and east you go, the more sleet and freezing rain comes in.

Today's semi-stormy Vermont weather was well ahead of the main show.   As expected, most of Vermont got two to five inches of snow, followed by some mixed precipitation in central and southern areas this afternoon.

I only got 2.1 inches of new snow in St. Albans, in the northwestern corner of Vermont. There so far has been no mixed precipitation up here, but as I shoveled this first installment, it seemed pretty dense, hinting at a high water content.  At least the fact that there was no mix up here resulted in a fairly pretty winter day in northwestern Vermont, especially if you like snow.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington put out this
ice accumulation forecast map this afternoon. Orange areas
would get a tenth of an inch of ice. Red areas could see a quarter inch
before it all changes to snow Friday. 

Late this afternoon and early this evening, some areas of Vermont have found a lull, with no precipitation falling.

Patches of mixed precipitation will cross over Vermont overnight. It won't amount to too much, but it will be a harassing situation in terms of road conditions and that type of thing.

There are some changes in the overall forecast compared to this morning's outlook.   I knew that would happen, as this is a complex storm.

At this point, far northwestern Vermont will see periods of mostly snow overnight, though some sleet or even freezing rain could mix in.

Elsewhere, southeast of a line from Plattsburgh to Jay Peak, says the National Weather Service, it'll be a mixed bag.

It doesn't seem like precipitation will be too, too heavy overnight, but any amount of mixed precipitation is a pain in the butt.

Friday still looks like a total show stopper.  The storm coming out of the Southeast will consolidate. It will be rapidly strengthening and a whopper of a storm by the time it reaches New England.

Forecasters are still looking at a band of very intense precipitation on the northwestern flank of the storm.  Very heavy snow will develop in northern New York early in the morning and move east into the Champlain Valley by mid morning, according to the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

A steady, day long light snow today in St. Albans, Vermont amounted
 to two inches and pretty, snow laden pine trees in my yard.
Friday will be much more wild than this as the winter storm
intensifies. Lots of snow northwest, ice southeast

Especially south of St. Albans in the Champlain Valley, it's possible you'll be lulled into a false sense of security if you get up early and get ready for work.  Not much will be falling from the sky, but as the early to mid morning wears on, it'll puke snow.

It might start as mixed precipitation but it will rapidly go over to snow. The initial mixed precipitation Friday morning  is least likely up by St. Albans and most likely from Burlington south and east.

This morning, it looked as if most of Vermont north of Route 2 would get a good foot and a half of snow.  Now, that deepest snow will mostly in the northern Champlain Valley and west of the Green Mountains  - north of Burlington and in northern New York.

But it will be at least as awful further south and east across northern and central Vermont.  A good dose of sleet and freezing rain in the morning will turn into a a burst of very heavy snow that will last a few hours as it moves northwest to southeast during the day.

Most areas in Vermont will have turned over to snow by mid-afternoon.

You're going to see a sharp gradient in snow accumulation from northwest to southeast, at least if Thursday evening forecasts hold.  The initial guess calls for accumulations of around 19 inches in St. Albans, maybe a foot around Burlington, and perhaps six inches by the time you get down to Montpelier.  (I'm lifting that info from the NWS Burlington forecast map.)

In a way, though, the back-breaking shoveling I'm going to have to do up in St. Albans might be better than the alternative.

Ice accumulation south of Route 2 looks like it will be at least a tenth of an inch.  Try dealing with that kind of ice in your driveway then snow on top of that.  Or worse, try to be a state or town public works crew trying to clear that mess from the roads.

Even though there are slight changes in the forecast from this morning, my advice remains the same. Stay home Friday if you can.  I noticed a lot of schools have already announced they are shut down on Friday and a lot of events are canceled. That's a very good thing, in my opinion. The fewer people on Vermont roads Friday, the better.

I mentioned this will be a strong storm. That means strong winds. As temperatures crash, the snow will get more and more lighter and powdery.  That means lots of blowing and drifting snow Friday night as winds gust to more than 30 mph.

By the way, with a fresh snow pack on the ground, clearing skies and light winds Saturday night, we'll have the coldest night of the winter.  On the bright side, it hasn't been a cold winter, so the coldest night of the winter Saturday night means lows between 5 and 20 below.  Nothing extreme by Vermont standards.

Beyond that, the weather pattern looks like it will stay active, but I don't see any immediate signs of another huge storm in the coming week or so.  Small systems, yes, but no blockbusters.

Big Snow Dump Likely Coming To Northern Vermont/NY

The famous National Weather Service snow forecast map from the
National Weathe Service in South Burlington. Click on it to
make it bigger and easier to see.  There could be 20
inches or more of snow from this storm near the Canadian border.

As expected the first inch or few inches of snow have fallen in much of Vermont early this morning in what promises to be a long slog through snow and mixed precipitation.

The precipitation will harass us through tonight, but the main show comes on Friday, and it has the potential to be a real doozy.

As of around 8 a.m., light snow was falling over most of Vermont, with mixed precipitation coming into the far south of the state. The question for today is, how far north will that mix get?

There's no question the southern half of Vermont will be pretty damn messy today.  

After the few inches of snow that accumulate there this morning, it'll go over to sleet and freezing rain.  In the southern half of Vermont, that mix of yuck will probably continue into Friday morning.

The most ice will probably accumulate south of Route 4.  Except in some isolated areas, it won't be enough to cause tree and power line damage, but it will surely mess up travel!  Additional snow toward the end of the storm could cause more power line trouble Friday.

It's hard to say how far north the sleet or a little freezing rain will get, but I wouldn't be surprised if sleet made it as far north as the Canadian border, at least briefly.  Still, areas north of Route 2 will be mostly snow through tonight.

The rate of precipitation will lull you into a false sense of security this afternoon and this evening.  It won't come down hard, and you'll say, "Oh, this isn't so bad. Another hyped storm."

And I suppose there's a chance it could be a bust.  But right now, things are lining up for Grand Hurrah for the last phase of the storm on Friday - one that could bring a good foot and a half of snow, especially to places north of that infamous Route 2 line.

Yesterday, I mentioned that often, on the northwest side of a storm moving up the New England coast, you get a band of especially heavy precipitation that pretty much stays nearly in one place for several hours at least.

It's starting to become a little more clear where that band will set up, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

They're saying that band of heavy snow will establish itself over northern New York before dawn, then slowly crawl eastward across Vermont during the day Friday. Under this band, snowfall rates could easily reach one to two inches per hour, possibly even more than that. - which is really, really heavy snow. A good portion of northern Vermont could easily get six to 12 inches snow in just a few hours.  

Ice accumulation forecast for this storm in southern Vermont. The
ice, combined with some heavy, wet snow, could cause
scattered power outages Friday.

The expected set up, with a strong, deep cold front hitting the intense moisture feed with this storm, is a recipe for really heavy snow.

It's similar to they type of situation we had in the Valentine's Blizzard of 2007, or the Pi Day Blizzard of March, 2017.  

However, having said that, it does NOT look like this storm will be as bad as those two famous storms. The band of heavy snow won't last nearly as long in any one place as it did in these two historic storms.

At this point the heaviest snow in this band seems like it will come through in the morning to mid-afternoon, so I would stay put and not drive anywhere during this. The snow will initially be somewhat wet and heavy, but turn much more powdery as the day wears on.

Southern Vermont has an even trickier forecast with this.  Remember, they'll be more into the sleet and freezing rain Friday morning.  My guess is they'll be on the southern end of this intense precipitation band.

Sleet and freezing rain could turn heavy for a time, then change to a period of heavy snow, with several inches of accumulation a good bet.

It's interesting that northern Vermont is under a winter storm warning for this event, while southern Vermont is under what to a layman seems like a less dire but still to be taken seriously winter weather advisory.

In my experience, dealing with, then cleaning up after a combined mixed precipitation and heavy snow event is much more difficult than just enduring, then shoveling away a particularly deep snowstorm that comes with little or no ice.

The snow will become lighter in intensity late in the afternoon or evening on Friday, then end overnight, aside from continued snow showers in the mountains.

However, definitely stay home Friday night if you can. Winds will pick up to 20 mph or so, with gusts of 35 mph.  That'll cause a lot of blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures will plummet overnight, too, dropping to near zero in many spots by Saturday morning. Wind chills will be a huge problem.

Saturday will be the time to enjoy a powder day in the northern Green Mountains. It'll still definitely be on the cold side, but the winds will slowly diminish and skies will get sunnier.  Sunday looks pretty gorgeous, too, with light winds and highs up in the 20s (after temperatures recover from below zero readings early Sunday morning.)

The bottom line is this will probably be Vermont's Storm of the Winter.  At least in most of the state. (A December storm was much bigger than this in far southern Vermont.) A band across extreme northern New York, then through places like St. Albans and on over to Newport could get about 20 inches of snow.  Which means this is more than a typical Vermont snowstorm.

Areas between Route 4 and Route 2 are in for roughly a foot of snow, give or take a few inches.  South of Route 4, all that mixed precipitation will limit totals to eight inches or less. At least that's the way it looks now.

Potential surprises with this storm:  Mixed precipitation could work further north than expected, cutting down accumulations somewhat. Or, that band of really heavy snow expected Friday in the north could end up being a little less intense than forecast, which would cut down forecast totals. On the other hand, local wind effects working with this band of snow could create spot snow totals of two feet or more in some northern locations

In southern Vermont, if the atmosphere is a bit colder than expected, snow accumulations will obviously be a little heavier. On the other hand, it's possible it could get a little warmer than forecast, which would change everything over to plain rain for a time.

So yeah, there are still question marks about this storm.  But one thing is for sure: You will certainly notice this storm.

Another Messy Vermont Storm Due; Could Be A Big One

Here's that familar National Weather Service so forecast map.
The upcoming storm could dump up to a foot of snow across the
north. More or a mixed precipitation event s foreast
further south in Vermont. 

Our recent quiet winter weather is about to come to an end here in the Green Mountain State.

Yet another messy storm is on its way, and if forecasts hold, it will arguably be one of the largest if not the largest winter storm of the season.

It's another one of those storms that has a lot of question marks regarding the intensity and type of precipitation.  Yeah, I'm sick of that scenario, too.

The storm is also going to last a long time, too, starting early Thursday and going on into Friday evening.

Given the questions with this storm, expect a few surprises, as usual, but I'll at least get into the broadbrush outlook for this thing in Vermont in a moment.

WIDESPREAD BAD WEATHER

This is another one of those storms that cause a variety of bad, sometimes dangerous weather across large parts of the United States.

As of Wednesday morning, a roughly 2,700-mile long (very long!)  stripe of winter storm warnings, watches and advisories extended from western Texas all the way to Maine. That of course includes Vermont.

South of the storm, severe thunderstorms and maybe some tornadoes should hit the Gulf Coast states today and the Southeast on Thursday.  In the southern Appalachians and parts of the Southeast, up to five inches of rain could come down with this storm, so flooding is an obvious concern there.

VERMONT IMPACTS

That flooding concern in the Southeast is a hint that this storm could bring lots of precipitation to at least parts of Vermont. The storm has a lot of moisture to play with, and it seems poised to dump a good portion of it on the state. It's a complicated forecast, so there's bust potential. Anything other than locusts could come out of the sky with this one.

But here's how the National Weather Service in South Burlington and other meteorologists currently think this will play out.

It'll come through in waves, with the first one passing quickly through Vermont before and during the Thursday morning commute.  So plan on taking extra time on your trip to work. It will be the first of several problematic commutes. It'll snow hard for awhile, but it won't last long, which will leave us with maybe two to four inches of powder.

Which will quickly be covered up with a bit of freezing drizzle. Not much, mind you, but enough to be bothersome. It'll just be patches of that drizzle, or light freezing rain here and there for most of Thursday afternoon and night. The roads won't be perfect Thursday afternoon and evening, but at least it won't be too cold, so the salt should work on the main routes.

Friday, we get into the bigger Round Two. By then, a strong storm will move northeastward along or near the New England coast.  Meanwhile, cold air will be trying to push in from the northwest. When you get a situation like that, you often get a band of very heavy snow or some type of precipitation somewhere along the northwestern side of the storm.

Part of Vermont could well be in that zone, so there's a good chance that someplace in the Green Mountain State could be in that band of very heavy snow for a few hours on Friday.

It's very hard to predict exactly where that relatively narrow band of heavy snow will set up, and how hard the snow will fall.

In any event, any mixed precipitation will change to snow from northwest to southeast Friday morning and early afternoon.  It looks like many places across northern Vermont could get a good foot of snow out of this.  A winter storm watch is up for northern Vermont for this reason.

The further south and east you go, the less snow accumulation you'll get because of the longer period of mixed precipitation or even plain rain before the changeover to snow.  A winter weather advisory is in effect in the southern half of Vermont, at least for now. There's a chance that that advisory could be updated to a winter storm warning, if things begin to look even worse down there than currently forecast.

I worry that it might.  There could be a period of heavy sleet or freezing rain before the changeover i parts of southern and eastern Vermont.  It remains to be seen, of course.

Needless to say, both the Friday morning and afternoon commute will be crappy to say the least.

As always, this tricky forecast is subject to change. More mixed precipitation could work its way into northern Vermont than expected. Or the opposite could happen, with more snow and less mix in the south than we now anticipate.

Also, as usual, the tail end of the storm is easiest to forecast.  Snow will retreat to the moutains and western slopes of the Greens Friday night. The wind will pick up, so blowing snow will be a problem. And temperatures will crash with a brief shot of Arctic air behind the storm.

Saturday will see clearing and cold weather. Then, starting Sundaty,  it's back to the cloudy, mild weather pattern we've been in lately.

Vermont Snowfall Seems To Be Working Out Just As Expected

Looking out of my St. Albans, Vermonthouse past the wreath at a newly
nowy deck and surroundings

It's 11 a.m. on a lazy winter Thursday in St. Albans, Vermont.

I haven't even been outdoors yet, but it looks as if we have a good six inches of new snow at least out there, and it's still snowing a little bit.

It's one example of many of a moderate Vermont January snowfall that has pretty much worked out just as forecast.  

There are many reports of snow fall totals of near six inches so far. The most I've seen so far is 7.7 inches in Orange, Vermont, but I'm sure we'll get updates with higher totals.

Areas in the winter storm warning across the north and mountains had been under a forecast for six to 10 inches of accumulation, so it looks like the predictions will be spot on.

A few areas in the winter weather advisory areas that had been expected to get three to five inches are on the high end of that prediction.  The National Weather Service office in South Burlington, in that winter weather advisory zone, reports 5.5 inches of new snow, and was still snowing lightly there late this morning.

For most of us, the heaviest snow is behind us as of 11 a.m. Snow showers will continue  for many of us, but it won't amount to anything huge. Maybe a couple inches, with more in the mountains.  And isn't nice for this winter to get through an entire storm in which it just snows, and we don't get any ice, sleet, yuckiness and schmutz?

However, winter storm warnings continue across the north and mountains until 7 p.m. today, and winter weather advisories continue until the same time elsewhere.

That's a good move on the part of the National Weather Service in South Burlington.  As I said, light snow is continuing, roads are bad, and the wind is getting ready to pick up.

That'll really blow the snow around quite a bit through this afternoon. Visibility will be a problem with this blowing snow, especially in open areas.  Winds will gust to over 30 mph, so that's more than enough to cause a lot of blowing and drifting. If you went to work today, the drive home will probably be tricky, too.

I'm noticing winds just starting to pick up in St. Albans now. The snow is beginning to blow off the trees.

Temperatures were still on the mild side as of 11 a.m.,, hovering near 30 degrees. They'll start to fall this afternoon, and that will set us up for definitely a frigid spell.

By early tomorrow morning, actual temperatures will be near 0 and wind chills could be as nasty as 25 below.  As they say, bundle up, children!

It won't get that warm Friday afternoon, either.  Most of us Vermonters will stay at or below 10 degrees for highs.

The next storm comes in Saturday with a quick squirt of warmer air and also a quick squirt of snow.

At this point, the fast moving weekend storm won't have time to drop much snow, but a lot of spots will get a few more inches. So that's nice, I suppose.

Another Arctic cold spell, this one lasting longer than the one coming in tonight, will hit Sunday night through Wednesday.  The cold won't be anything spectacular for a Vermont January, but the air still will have a definite bite.

Look for lows at or below 0 for the first half of next week and highs in the single numbers and teens.

It looks, tentatively at least, that we're also entering a drier weather pattern.  I suppose it's possible some type of storminess might come up from the south or west in the final 10 days of the month, but that prospect is looking iffy at best.

Temperatures in the closing third of January also look like they will be near to a little below normal in Vermont, perhaps trending back to a little warmer than normal at the tail end of January.

Long range forecasts are not always accurate, so don't really take my word on this. But we do know one thing.  Winter's back!

Still Watching Dangerous Weekend Storm In Eastern U.S.

Forecast national map for Saturday. Note the very
strong high pressure off the East Coast pumping in
lots of very warm, wet air from the Gulf of Mexico. Storm shown
centered over Arksans will produce severe storms
and tornadoes south and east of it and ice to its northwest.
The storm moves into our area Saturday and especially
Sunday, with a risk of heavy ice or rain, and
possibly snow. 

Ingredients continue to come together for a dangerous storm in much of the eastern United States Friday through Sunday.

While forecasts will undoubtedly change somewhat as more updated data comes in, here's a quick broad brush of what the nation should expect, followed by effects here in Vermont.

Friday:  A line of severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes develops in eastern Oklahoma and Texas and moves into Arkansas and Louisiana. Strong, damaging thunderstorms and a few tornadoes along this line.

Ahead of the squall line, a few supercells with possible tornadoes, might well develop, with the risk of a very big, strong tornado or two.

Heavy rain will develop in the Tennessee and Ohio valleys later in the day. There will be a freezing rain risk from about Nebraska to southern Wisconsin.

Saturday: The threat of severe storms and tornadoes will shift to the central Gulf Coast and lower Tennessee valley. Overall this two-day severe outbreak might resemble one of the stronger outbreaks more common in the spring and early summer.

Meanwhile, heavy rain and the threat of flooding will develop from the Gulf Coast through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and extend as far north as Michigan. There's a risk of a good amount of freezing rain in a broad band from Kansas, through Missouri, into northern Ilinois, Michigan and into Ontario.

Near record warmth will affect the East Coast.

Sunday: The heavy rain shifts to eastward a bit and then diminishes, except north. . Heavy precipitation moves into northern New York and northern New England, and southern Ontario and Quebec. These areas will turn colder and there is a risk of heavy icing in some of these areas. Another day of record warmth is likely along the immediate East Coast.

Lets look at the next few days in Vermont:

Today: Snow showers with a cold front. Sharply falling temperatures this afternoon with the snow showers could cause a flash freeze on roads.

Thursday: Quiet and cold.  Lows a few degrees either side of zero, highs in the teens. At night, south winds start blowing, becoming strong in the Champlain Valley.

Friday: Windy and warm, with patchy light rain. A little ice possible east of the Greens in the morning.

Saturday: Now we're getting into the meat of the storm.  It'll be warm, unless the cold front comes in sooner than forecast. A few record highs possible. Rain is likely, especially north.  Turning sharply colder, especially north and west Saturday night with possible mixed precipitation.

Sunday: A wild card, with a complex thermal profile and questions about the position of cold air. There's a risk of significant, damaging icing, especially north. If it's a little warmer than expected, rain could be heavy enough to produce flooding. If it's a little colder than now expected, more snow would work into northern areas.

Overall, it looks like one to two inches of rain and/or melted snow and ice will come down northern Vermont Sunday. That's a lot for January. Somewhat lesser amounts of precipitation will probably hit southern Vermont.

The bottom line is, we don't know exactly what will be falling from the sky Sunday, but I'd consider postponing travel. And pay attention to those iee forecasts. If we got a lot of ice, we could lose quite a few trees and power lines.  If the forecasts for ice become more certain, stock up on supplies during the warmer weather Saturday morning and afternoon.

I Guess Tumbleweeds Are The Latest Winter Driving Hazard

Workers dig cars out from a tangle of tumbleweeds on
New Year's Day in Washington State. 

It sucks to be a motorist in much of the nation, and the Northern Hemisphere, for that matter, during the winter.

There's always the risk of snow, sleet, freezing rain, high winds, flooding, intense cold or other problems to prevent you from getting from here to there.

Add tumbleweeds to this hazard list.  No, us Vermonters need not worry about that during this or any winter. However, motorists up in Washington State had to deal with this, big time.

As NBC reports:

"A few people in Washington state spent part of their New Year's Eve trapped in their cars after winds blew a massive amount of tumbleweeds onto a highway.

The incident happened on Highway 240 in Benton County near Yakima, a city about 150 miles southeast of Tacoma. Washington State Patro Trooper Chris Thorson told NBC News that 911 calls started to come in around 6:30 p.m about people trapped in their vehicles.

He said winds that night were between 40 to 50 mph and it took about 30 minutes for the tumbleweeds to fully encase five cars and partially trap a semi-truck. The highway in both directions was closed for more than 10 hours in order for the tumbleweeds to be removed."

Thorson told the Seattle Times that occupants of the cars trapped in tumbleweeds "were not as amused as the rest of the people watching. Some of them had to ring in their New Year fully encased in tumbleweeds."

People think of Washington State as wet, and not prone to arid location hazards like tumbleweeds. But eastern Washington where the tumbleweed attack took place is dry because the Cascade Mountains to the west of this location block so much of that moisture coming in from the Pacific Ocean.

Yakima, Washinton, near where this took place, only averages about nine inches of rain per year, compared to the roughly 37 inches wet Seattle, Washington on the Pacific coast gets.

Here's a clip of people trying to rescue vehicles and clear the tumbleweeds:

New Year's Eve Road Alert, And New England's Weirdest Winter Storm

National Weather Service map from Monday afternoon shows a bizarre
combinayion of a ice storm warnings (in purple) and a severe thunderstorm
warning (in orange).  Usually these two warnings are in different
seasons, not together on the same day/

Hi, I'm back after a one day hiatus in which I was traveling from the blizzardy snows of South Dakota toward the very weird storminess over New England on Monday.

And what a strange storm it was!  I don't see anything the record books in which a nasty winter storm of snow, freezing rain, sleet and wind combined simultaneously with severe thunderstorms with damaging hail.

That was the situation in New England yesterday, folks!  There's a couple videos at the bottom of this post.

I'll get into more of that in a minute, but first, we're not even quite done with the storm yet.

This thing was a sprawling mess which kept sprouting new centers and new bouts of rough weather from California to Maine.

The last of these storms is near Downeast Maine, and is dumping heavy snow on the northern and western parts of that state.

It's a remnant piece of a previous part of this storm that we Vermonters have to worry about today and tonight.  In case you haven't noticed, it's pretty mild out there this New Year's Eve.

In many, but not all Vermont valley locations, yesterday's ice is melting off the trees. That's a good thing, as you don't want to have the branches weighed down by the ice and risk more tree and power line damage.

One reason it's mild out is there is a cold front of sorts attached to that remnant piece of the storm near the eastern Great Lakes.

This sort of cold front has a lot of energy with it.  There was even more lightning to report this morning in Ohio.  This front will generate some heavy snow showers as it approaches tonight.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says the timing suggests that the heavier snow showers will come through northern New York between 4 and 8 p.m. today. They'll get into the Champlain Valley between about 7 and 10 p.m. and into the eastern half of Vermont between 9 p.m. and midnight.

This obviously means trouble for people out partying for New Year's Eve. A quick one to three inches of snow, combined with some wind, will sharply reduce the visibility on the roads, and get them slippery fast.

Probably more important is the temperature. When temperatures are near the freezing mark in this snow squally situation, it's a lot worse on the roads than if readings were far below 32 degrees. In very cold weather, a lot of the snow just blows off the roads. It does compact into some ice, but it's not too, too bad when it's super cold.

However, when the temperature is warmish, like today and this evening, water on the road freezes as the temperatures fall during the onset of the snow.  The snow will be relatively wet. Wet snow compacts into thick layers of slippery ice beneath car tires. There will still be a little water on top of all this mess, which makes things even more slick.

Arrived home from a trip to find the trees in my St. Albans, Vermont\
yard were mercifully not too weighed down by ice from Monday's storm.

Combine this with drunk drivers on New Year's Eve and you have a real mess on your hand. I get it that I'm being a New Year's Eve Debbie Downer with this news. But it's all in an effort to help you plan ahead.  

Or stay home. That's what me and my husband Jeff do every New Year's Eve.  Tonight is amateur hour. It's more fun to sip Champagne at home.

In any event, this snow tonight is good news for the ski areas. It'll be kinda powdery up there. Groomers can mix this in with the slop from yesterday, leaving the slopes in pretty good shape for welcoming 2020 with some skiing and riding

MONDAY'S WEIRDNESS

Monday wasn't the first time there's been lightning and thunder during a New England ice storm.  But these were definitely the strongest storms I and anyone else has seen with an ice storm.   For those of you in northern and central Vermont who wonder what I'm talking about, the thundersleet storms passed well south of you.

A New England ice storm is often a recipe for some thunder.  Usually, an ice storm features a very strong punch of very warm air from the south coming into New England several thousand feet overhead.

Meanwhile, low level cold air drains in from Quebec. Rain from the overhead warm air freezes on the way down to form sleet, or freezes on contact with the ground to accumulate some dangerous ice. This is exactly the situation New England faced on Monday.

This warm air above can be quite unstable and create elevated thunderstorms that form above the temperature inversion that is keeping the cold air locked in at the surface. For instance, there were thunderstorms in Vermont during the Great Ice Storm of 1998.

On Monday, the storms turned out to be quite strong, and formed into a system we normally and often see during severe thunderstorm outbreaks in the summer.

One thunderstorm formed ahead of the main line of storms and went through western and central Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut.  This storm very much resembled a supercell thunderstorms, the kind that can produce large hail and even tornadoes.

Supercells usually form ahead of the main band of storms that form along a squall line or ahead of a cold front. That's how Monday's initial storm behaved. It probably was technically a supercell, since it was rotating and had a radar presentation that resembled a supercell.

Because the storm was elevated above the cold layer near the surface, it would have never been able to spin down a tornado toward the ground. (The rotation with this storm was insufficient to produce a tornado even if that low level cold air wasn't around.)

However, supercells and that type of storm that formed Monday in central New England can produce large hail and this one certainly did. Rising and falling air currents in the storm grabbed raindrops and sleet pellets and formed large hail stones.

Some of the hail stones were an inch or more in diameter, as big or bigger than quarters and enough to dent vehicles. Certainly, these were the biggest hailstones on record for December in New England.

The main line of thunderstorms came through later, dumping more hail, and triggering more lightning and thunder across much of southern and central New England. Some of storms extended into southern Vermont.

On top of all this, the freezing rain was bringing down trees and power lines in the Adirondacks, southern Vermont and New Hampshire and much of Massachusetts.

Most, but not all of the power is back on in New England and New York as of early this afternoon.

Videos:

Security cameras caught the noisy thundersleet and large hail in Westfield, Massachusettts. And also the reaction from a stunned occupant of the building:



The freezing rain affected Ontario, Canada, too, as this enthusiastic motorist tells and shows us:

Storm Update: Huge Plains Mess Today; New England Mess Monday

Ice covers trees in my St. Albans yard in 2017. Scenes like this
will be common in parts of the upper Midwest, Ontario and New York
and New England between now and Monday.

That ongoing, slow moving winter storm out in the middle of the nation is, as expected, creating a mess in the middle of hte nation and will continue to do so through the weekend.

This storm is a slow mover, especially compared to the usual fast pace of weather systems this time of year.

This makes the winter weather with this storm even more long-lasting, annoying and disruptive than usual. The storm will also be remembered as one that will have spread ice through large sections of the Plains and elsewhere.  

Then, the action will skip to New England by Sunday night and Monday, and there will be a huge mess there, too. More on that down below, but first we'll get into what's going on in the Plains.

A wide stripe from western Nebraska, central South Dakota, eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota is still getting or going to get socked by eight to 20 inches of snow.  Just east of that, in eastern Nebraska, northwestern Iowa southeastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota, they're in for rain, freezing rain, sleet, then snow, blowing snow and gusty winds, so it will be a real mess where I am in Yankton, South Dakota.

In parts of southwestern Minnesota, an ice storm warning is in effect.  Freezing rain could accumulated to as thick as a half inch, which is more than enough to bring down trees and power lines.

A little to the south in Iowa, a few areas could see enough rain to cause some localized flooding

All this precipitation in South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa is unwelcome for another reason. This year will roughly tie last year as the wettest year on record in this region.  Despite what has been until now a relatively dry December, the ground is still totally soaked from two years of unprecedented rain and other precipitation.

The snow and ice will have to eventually melt, which will just provide more excess water. The James River in South Dakota, unbelievably, has been constantly in flood stage since March.

Further south, broadly in the area where Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas and Oklahoma meet, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms and perhaps a tornado or two later today and tonight.

ON TO NEW ENGLAND

This is just one forecast among many varying ones regarding the
potential for ice Monday. This map depicts ice accumulation
of more than a half inch in darker pink areas. That's enough to
cause damage. I would emphasize this is just one computer run
on one model and results will likely be very different, and likely
not as bad as this forecast indicates. Still something to
with out for, though. 

As the strong storm center moves into the Great Lakes, its warm front will want to come in from the southwest, bringing plenty of moisture for steady precipitation with it.

Meanwhile, cold high pressure way up in Quebec will be stubborn as hell, and not let the warm air advance.

The warm air will try to go up an over the cold air, which sets much of New England and New York up for mixed precipitation. A large section of Ontario is under the gun for freezing rain and sleet, too.

The battle between the cold and warm looks like it will reach a stalemate right over or near northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and maybe Massachusetts, so tha'ts the zone we have to really watch for ice and sleet.

Early indications are the freezing rain would be the biggest problem from the northern Adirondacks, southeastward into far southern Vermont, and into central New England, say in a broad area around Worcester.

There's a risk -not a certainty! -  these areas could see a damaging ice storm. The prolonged nature of the freezing rain from perhaps Sunday night through Monday, could bring enough freezing rain accumulations to bring down trees and power lines.

Remember, this freezing rain zone could end up being a little north and east, or a little south and west of current forecasts, so everybody in and around Vermont will want to watch this one.

People just to the northeast of the most intense freezing rain zone could end up getting a lot of sleet. I suppose that's better, because sleet doesn't accumulate on power lines and trees, it just bounces off. But if you get a bunch of sleet, it's heavier than hell to shovel away.  Far northern New England, maybe northern New Hampshire and a good chunk of Maine stand to get at least several inches of snow.

A secondary storm will likely form south of New England and move northeastward.  That would eventually help colder air leach in through all layers of the atmosphere, which would change much of the rain to snow.

Meanwhile, the parent low over the Great Lakes will slowly weaken and drift toward New England. All this means that the ski areas of Vermont and surrounding states will get a long period of snow. This would go probably from Monday night well into Wednesday.

It won't snow super hard, butthe long duration means the ski slopes would get many inches of recovery snow.  Temperatures won't be very cold, so the light snow would mix with rain in some of the valleys. Plus precipitation will be even lighter in the valleys than in the mountains.

This whole New England forecast, especially for the ice Sunday night and Monday will almost definitely change. This whole essay just gives you an idea of what we might expect. Stay tuned for inevitable adjustments to the forecast.

Bottom line: Expect lousy travel throughout the region Monday, with a risk of spotty power outages and tree damage.

Christmas Is Over. So Is Quiet Weather. Brace For The Usual Winter Storms

Forecast weather map for Sunday. A big winter storm will
spread tricky weather through much of the nation. You
can see the storm's size envelops much of the nationl 

The rather odd quiet weather pattern for most of us across the nation over Christmas is about to end.

It's back to the usual winter slog of wind, snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, thunder and other hazards that can drive one crazy with either dread or delight, depending upon your perspective.

Things were so nice on Christmas Day that there were at least a couple dozen record highs in some parts of the Midwest, and Tennessee and Ohio valleys.  

Now, however, attention turns to the next storm, which will actually affect most of the nation. It's going to be one of those big, windy lumbering affairs that starts off in California and heads northeast toward the Great Lakes.

This type of storm and storm track is the kind that gives everybody some sort of inclement weather.

Things started in the Southwest Christmas and Christmas night with heavy rain and local flooding in southern California. There was even a brief tornado warning around Santa Barbara, California, though I'm not aware of anything touching down.

As is the case with most storms like this, this system will spend today and most of Friday getting its act together over the Southwest and southern Rockies, then it will plow northeastward.

By later Friday night, snow and mixed precipitation will blossom northward through the Plains states. There's already a winter storm watch out for parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado and New Mexico, and I'm sure that watch and other advisories will soon expand into neighboring states like the Dakotas, parts of Iowa and Minnesota.

Where I'm staying in Yankton, South Dakota for the holidays, not too far from the border with Iowa, there's a good chance this storm will dump quite a bit of freezing rain.  In fact, there will be a band of ice with this thing probably all the way from Nebraska, through parts of the Great Lakes and eventually into northern New England on Monday.

(More on Vermont impacts further down).

Early indications are that heavy snow and near blizzard conditions could develop in the colder air from the western half of Nebraska, into central and western South Dakota, the eastern half of North Dakota and a good chunk of Minnesota.

The storm will be strong, so whatever falls from the sky will produce a lot of wind through the Plains and Great Lakes.

Severe thunderstorms and sometimes tornadoes occur with this type of storm in the warm air well south and east of the storm center.

That looks like that might be the case with this storm in the lower Mississippi Valley, but early indications are this won't be an incredibly widespread severe outbreak.

VERMONT IMPACTS

The Green Mountain State is in for two bouts of mixed precipitation.

The first one is coming through during the first half of Friday.  A weak storm system will swing a warm front our way. There won't be much freezing rain Friday morning, but a little bit goes a long way. Expect slippery roads in most of Vermont for the morning commute, which is why there's a winter weather advisory up for the early monring hours.

The storm from the Plains will affect us in New England on Monday.  It's still hard to say how much of what will come out of the sky.  The storm's warm front will try to bring some mild air in, but cool high pressure from Quebec will insist on at least trying to keep us below freezing.

This sounds like a recipe for mixed precipitation and more ice late Sunday and Monday, so we'll have to keep an eye on it. More details to follow.

Florida Storm Floods Big Time, Brings Odd Tornado Scare

Flooding at the Fort Lauderdale airport last night. 

As I mentioned yesterday, most of the nation is having quiet Christmas week weather, but not sunny Florida, which at the moment isn't so sunny.

Parts of the state got hit by some big time flash flooding overnight. It was so bad it temporarily blocked access to the Fort Lauderdale airport.

The flooding was mostly concentrated between Miami and Fort Lauderdale, with rainfall amounts outside thar area being not as bad. Where it rained hardest, though, the rain was incredible.

Hallandale, Florida reported 12.8 inches of rain. Fort Lauderdale itself had about eight inches of rain.

The downpours hit in a very short amount of time, which made the flash flooding worse. The Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport had 4.45 inches of rain in just an hour. For comparison's sake this area normally gets about two inches of rain during the entire month of December. It's normally the dry season in South Florida about now.

Access roads to the airport were closed, and a lot of flights were delayed.  The airport has since reopened, but the water flood had been replaced by a flood of traffic from cars originally blocked from being allowed in. A number of homes and businesses were flooded in the region.

Meanwhile, in the Florida Keys, residents and tourists hunkered down as rare tornado warnings were issued. Supercell thunderstorms came ashore in that area, carrying the risk of strong waterspouts that would turn into a risk of strong tornadoes down there.

Waterspouts are common around the Keys, but almost always, they stay offshore and weak. This was a totally different scenario with the nearly Midwest-style supercells creating a risk of stronger twisters.

So far, though, there have been no official reports of any tornado touchdowns.

The storm is moving northeast into coastal Georgia and South Carolina.  Flooding is especially likely to hit coastal South Carolina today.

Early this morning, rain and high tides had already blocked sections of 26 streets and roads in Charleston, South Carolina.

The storm will then go safely out to sea and not affect the rest of the Eastern Seaboard.

Here's a news report from the Fort Lauderdale airport:

New England Storm: Forecast Steady As She Goes

Areas in yellow can expect six inches or more of snow out this storm. Most
of the orange areas can expect a foot or more, at least according to
this National Weather Service forecast. Note the light blue
in far northern Vermont. That represents an inch or less of snow.

We continue on with our winter routine of watching and waiting on the next New England snow and ice storm and speculating as to whether forecasts will turn out to be accurate.

One thing that gives me confidence in the predictions for this latest storm is how consistent they are.  They are virtually unchanged from yesterday morning. This, of course, does not mean we won't be surprised.  

This will primarily be a central New England and central New York affair, with many of those spots still under the gun for a good foot of snow, with maybe some freezing rain thrown in for good measure.

The winter storm warnings for this storm go from northeastern Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey, up through most of southern and central New York, and on into southern Vermont and New Hampshire, and northern Massachusetts.

As of this morning, a dangerous ice storm was going on in southern Ontario, western New York and parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey.  Roads are a mess, there's already many reports of crashes, and people are worried about trees and power lines coming down.

That first wave of precipitation, in western New York, will slowly

Here in Vermont, it still looks like a tale of two climates, at least for a couple days. The southern end of the state is still in line for a good foot of snow. Up at the Canadian border, there will practically be nothing. We think.

In between, Rutland and Windsor counties have been upgraded to a winter storm warning, since a lot of that area has a good shot of seeing six inches or more of snow between now and Tuesday morning.

That ice out west probably won't make it to Vermont, aside from some freezing drizzle or light freezing rain possible overnight tonight in far southern parts of the state.

This storm will last a long time and winds will come from the east or northeast through most of it

That means the east slopes and summits of the Green Mountains from central Vermont south will be the big winners.  As mentioned yesterday, winds will be forced to rise up those slopes. Rising air cools. Cooler air can't hold as much moisture, so that wetness will come out of the sky as lots and lots and lots of snowflakes.

I could see a foot of snow falling as far north as Killington, and eight inches as far north as Sugarbush. No guarantees on this, but it's set up like that.

The first surge of snow will come at us during the day today, but it will gradually fade on its way into and through Vermont. By the time it reaches the Canadian border this evening,  expect basically flurries up there.

A stronger surge of snow will come down Monday as the storm consolidates along the New England coast. This is another tricky part, as the heaviest snow for these types of storms usually sets up north and west of the center.

But how far north and west of the storm's center?  The snow might concentrate a little further south and east in Massachusetts, or it could set up more in southern Vermont and eastern New York.  Or somewhere in between.

As the storm moves toward the northeast, this band of snow will be a moving target, so everybody in the winter storm warning area will get a decent blast of snow. It's just hard to tell who the big "winners" will be.

As the storm moves north, off the coast of Maine, I'm also wondering if that band of snow will move northward with it, coming into areas north of Route 2 in Vermont, especially east of the Champlain Valley. That's speculation at this point,  and a low chance of that happening, but something to watch.

There could still be some northern Vermont surprises, though the current forecasts of next to no snow on the Canadian border still looks good, and will probably be the outcome.

There's no big storms coming this week after this one goes by, but frequent disturbances will create chances for snow showers off and on through next weekend.