Still Kinda Gusty As Crews Work To Restore Power

White pine trees held up particularly poorly in
this week's windstorm. This one bit the
dust in Milton, Vermont.

As of early this morning, close to 39,000 Vermont homes and businesses were still without power in the wake of that tremendous wind storm we had Sunday  night and Monday morning.

The winds remained gusty overnight and as crews restored power to some areas, new outages were reported.

Here at my house in St. Albans, Vermont, the power was out for seven hours Monday morning, then returned. But it went out again for an hour or two last night. Now, knock on wood, it's back on.

Some people probably won't get their power back until the weekend, we're told. On the very bright side, there are so far no reports of deaths or serious injuries in Vermont because of what was a truly dangerous storm.

There's a couple things making this situation worse than it would otherwise be. These windstorms usually tend to focus on one section of the state, which means power companies can focus all their crews and attention there. But this storm caused big problems state wide. 

On top of that, most states have a mutual aid agreement. If a particular state has an especially bad storm, crews from neighboring states come in to help. Not this time. That's because all the surrounding states had their own big time problems and had no crews to spare.

New Hampshire, New York and Massachusetts has massive power failures and damage from the storm. In Maine, the power outages with this storm were worse than the legendary ice storm of 1998, which until now had been that state's benchmark for worst case scenario.

Those surrounding areas were also contending with flooding, and coastal damage. Boats broke loose and in some cases sank in Massachusetts, Maine, Rhode Island and Connecticut because of the storm.
Massachusetts and especially New Hampshire endured serious flooding.

There was still a flash flood watch in one section of northern New Hampshire this morning because there were questions about the structural integrity of a dam along the Androscoggin River. The Saco River went on a rampage Monday through Bartlett and Jackson, New Hampshire. There's a video at the bottom of this post of a house being carried away by a river in Warren, New Hampshire.

Some damage in Vermont is particularly bad. Seven Days says the Audubon Nature Center in Huntington, Vermont is close indefinitely because a falling tree smashed through their office and all the trails are impassable because of fallen branches and trees.

This is a particularly windy time of year, so more setbacks could yet come as a variety of weather systems and cold fronts come through.

Though the expected winds will not be nearly as strong as they were Monday morning, they could drop already weakened trees and power lines. Gusts to 30 mph or more are expected Thursday night and Friday, and we there's a risk of even stronger winds next Monday, perhaps in the 40 mph range.

We'll keep an eye on that for you.

 

Digging Out And Reconnecting After Epic Vermont Windstorm

A blue spruce fell against this house in Milton, Vermont
during the windstorm early Monday

As we struggle to get our electric power back, pick up the mess in our yards, contemplate the fallen trees and blown off roofing shingles, it's turned into a gorgeous late afternoon after the storm, at least in western Vermont.

It's still windy, but the sun has popped back out and the temperatures are still relatively mild for this time of year. A nice interlude to start cleaning up.

Lots of problems remain of course. As of 3:30 p.m. this Monday afternoon, a whopping 64,000 Vermont homes and businesses remain without power. It could take days to restore electricity in some areas.

Workers put tarps on a roof that lost many shingles in the
big windstorm in Milton, Vermont. 

Late this morning, those numbers translated to 150,000 Vermonters without electricity. That's roughly 25 percent of the state's population. At one point 1.4 people in New England had no electricity today.

Although my town, St. Albans, was pretty hard hit, I'm lucky. My power is back on. Most of the few patches of siding that were torn off my house can easily be put back in place. A large branch pierced the roof of my shed, but it looks easily repairable.

And I'll have to spend time picking up the countless branches down on my property. (It looks like I'll have a HUGE winter burn pile.)

Green Mountain Power, Vermont's largest utility, says 350 linemen, tree workers and others have mobilized to fix all these power failures.

Non-functioning traffic lights due to continued power
failures in Colchester, Vermont after the big windstorm

At least here in Vermont, the damage was hit and miss. Most of the strongest winds came from downslope winds off the west sides of mountains, especially the Green Mountains. The cause of this was screaming strong winds, in excess of 100 mph several thousand feet overhead.

In some places, lower level winds going up and over the tops of the mountains were able to "grab" some of the stronger winds aloft and translate them down to the surface, where we live.  That explains the pockets of heavy damage.

In other sections of the state, this "grab" didn't quite happen, so the winds weren't quite as strong in some aresa. Which left us with swaths of heavy damage, with many trees down, roof shingles gone and chaos, and other areas that had a rather stormy night, but nothing super scary.

A tangle of fallen trees in Milton, Vermont Monday after
the severe wind storm earlier in the dauy. 

Unlike most downslope wind events, the strongest winds were felt a several miles west of the Green Mountains, rather than along the immediate slopes.

That's why towns like St. Albans, Milton, Georgia and South Burlington were so badly affected. Towns closer to the Greens in the traditional wind belts also had trouble, too, but they've seen that, done that.

We can count ourselves lucky in Vermont, too, that it wasn't worse. Southern New England was blasted by even stronger winds than Vermont, and more damage, too. Mashpee, Massachusetts, on Cape Cod reported a gust of 93 mph. The wind gusted to 80 mph in Duxbury, Massachusetts.

And in southern New England, up to five inches of rain fell. So flooding accompanied the high winds. There were no reports of serious flooding in Vermont. In the White Mountains region of New Hampshire, rainfall of up to five inches caused damaging flash floods this morning.

My dog Jackson inspects the chaos on our back deck in St.
Albans after the severe windstorm tossed outdoor furniture
all over the place earlier Monday morning. 

Going forward, the weather in Vermont and much of the rest of New England will remain unsettled as we go into November, but that's normal for that time of year.

There's a good chance of showers from Wednesday night through Sunday, and there will be some fairly gusty winds at times, but nothing particularly dangerous.

Some of those rain showers will turn to mountain snow showers at times through the period, but again, that's normal in Vermont for early November.

I guess, then, it is now becoming safe to go out and clean up after one of the worst Vermont windstorms in recent decades.

Major Damage In Vermont, New England From Powerful Wind/Flood Storm

Strong winds early this morning ripped siding off my St. Albans,
Vermont house near the front door and cut power to the house, too.
(It was still too dark early this morning to get photos of more
dramatic damage.)

Power is out to at least tens of thousands of New Englanders early this morning as a very powerful storm brought huge wind gusts regionwide.

Damage is extensive. This blog will just have a few examples, but the bottom line is, take your time getting to work this morning.

There's lots of power failures, lots of traffic lights not working, lots of debris on the roads in Vermont and throughout the Northeast.

Many major roads in Vermont are closed, or were at least closed earlier this morning due to fallen trees, power lines and debris. These routes include Vermont 116 in Hinesburg, U.S 2 in East Montpelier, Calais and Plainfield; Vermont 15 in Jericho and Underhill, and several main roads in Colchester, says Vermont Public Radio

The heavily traveled commuter route I live on Route 36 is closed between St. Albans, just above my house, all the way to Bakersfield.

At my St. Albans, Vermont house, I would say several gusts exceeded 60 mph, which was common to the west of the Green Mountains. My power is out, and was out for most of the rest of St. Albans earlier.

Siding has been ripped off my house, and trees are down everywhere.

Since the power is out, I'm doing this blog from a convenience store in St. Albans, which does have power, for now. I'm overhearing plenty of customers saying they had to take long detours to get around roads blocked by trees and power lines. The gas pumps aren't working here.

Elsewhere in the region, fallen trees had blocked southbound lanes of Interstate 89 in Georgia, Vermont earlier, and the town of Milton is advising no travel through that town because of trees and debris in the streets.

Winds gusted to 63 mph at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, Vermont. Wells, Vermont reported a gust to 78 mph and the top of Mount Mansfield gusted to 115 mph.

Many schools are closed. No fewer than 58,000 homes and businesses in Vermont were without power early this morning,  affecting more than 100,000 people.

This is easily Vermont's worst wind storm since December, 2012, if not longer.

Elsewhere in New England, 270,000 people were without power in Massachusetts. In and around Boston, several roads and closed by fallen trees. Several homes have been hit by falling trees. In Portland, Maine, power flashes were going off everywhere as trees and limbs collapsed onto power lines in the gales.

In the White Mountains of New Hampshire, a serious flash flood situation was evolving this morning.  The strong upslope winds wrung out heavy rains. Radars estimate that six inches of rain has fallen there.

As of 6 a.m., the wind has tapered off slightly in Vermont, but is still strong, and will remain a threat for a few more hours. The wind will shift from southeasterly to westerly. That will diminish the strength of the winds somewhat on the western slopes of the Green Mountains, but could increase the gusts in places that have largely escaped the worst of the winds.

It could take days to restore power in some areas of Vermont and surrounding states because the damage is so extensive. And the wind gusts will cause more power lines to fail in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast today, slowing the recovery efforts.

It's been an extreme autumn in the weather department here in Vermont and this was another example. But it was just the most destructive example of the oddball weather we've had.

As testimony of how strong the wind is, barometric pressures are near record lows in northern New York and western Vermont. I noticed the sea level pressure at Burlington was at 28.84 inches this morning, the lowest I've seen in many years. The pressure was down to 28.77 in Saranac Lake, closer to the storm's center.

I'll update as time and circumstances allow. Be careful out there this morning, even if the wind has tapered off where you are. You might still encounter fallen trees debris, power lines and such for the rest of the day.

Sunday Evening Storm Update: Huge Winds Biggest Threat Later Tonight

Water vapor imagery from the National Weather Service
shows an incredibly dynamic storm taking shape in the East
as of late Sunday afternoon. 

As I'm writing this at around 4:30 p.m Sunday, I hope you're locating your flashlights and re-charging your cell phones and such because it is going to be a very windy and loud late Sunday night and first half of Monday in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast.

This storm that's coming in, originally billed as a flood threat, is turning into more of a damaging wind event for the region.

Flooding is still a good bet, especially in parts of New York, New Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania and I think parts of New Hampshire and Maine. Already, flood warnings are up for a wide swath of New Jersey, and the heaviest rain is just now reaching that state. They have hours of downpours to go.

The New York City metro area is also very much under the gun for flash flooding overnight.

The wind is going to be the big weather maker with this storm, though. If anything, signals have become stronger and stronger all day that we're in for a big blow. That's here in Vermont and also much of the rest of the Northeast.

So far the wind hasn't been that bad, and has been fitful. But that was expected as the main action will come late tonight and Monday morning. (It'll probably begin sooner than that in southern New England and Long Island.)

Still, it's already beginning. As of late this afternoon, gusts have reached 43 mph in East Berkshire, Wells, and Underhill, Vermont, says the National Weather Service office in Burlington, Vermont. This happened many hours before the conditions become ripe for the strongest winds.

As of 5 p.m. there were already 400 or so Vermont homes and businesses without power, mostly in Addison County. Again, this is many hours before the main event arrives.

While the entire Northeast will have damaging wind gusts and power failures, there are areas in particular where the wind will be especially strong.

Those places will be all coastal locations on Long Island, all of the New England coast, on up into parts of the Maritime provinces of Canada.  Winds in a few of these spots could easily gust past 70 mph. Along the coasts, the strongest winds will come through between roughly 10 p.m. tonight and 4 a.m. Monday, though later up toward Maine.

Other areas under the gun for wind gusts of up to 70 mph or maybe even more are along the western slopes of the Green Mountains in Vermont, parts of the northern Adirondacks, and downslope wind zones in parts of Vermonts's Northeast Kingdom and northwestern New Hampshire.

Here in Vermont, if you live in towns like Bakersfield, Jericho, Underhill, Cambridge, Huntington, Richmond, Bristol, and communities just east of Rutland will probably be especially hard hit.

The dynamics of this storm are so strong that we'll have to watch late tonight and tomorrow morning for some of these west slope of the Green Mountains winds to extend further west, with possible gusts to 60 mph in the more populated communities of Rutland City and Town, Middlebury, the Burlington metro area and St. Albans City and Town. No guarantees the wind gusts will get that strong there, but it's something to watch.

No matter what, the wind will howl, and this will be a bigger blow than our standard type of windy storm.

A band of heavy rain will probably precede the strongest winds. A punch of drier air looks like it's going to wrap into the storm system late tonight and early Monday. That would make it a little easier for screaming strong winds a few thousand feet above us to mix down to where we live in the form of sporadic strong gusts.

It also looks like a cold front of sorts will form Monday morning and pass through the Champlain Valley with more strong to damaging and shifting winds

Power failures and tree damage in the hardest hit areas of Vermont and other parts of the Northeast will probably be pretty extensive, and I wouldn't be surprised if some areas have no electricity for one, two, possibly even three days. (Though I think most places will get power back within hours, or less than a day.)

Vermont Emergency Management put out a helpful checklist of things to do this evening before the storm, and during it.

Among them:

1. If you haven't put aware or secured outdoor objects like lawn furniture and Halloween decorations, do it now, before the wind really gets cranking.

2. Have headlamps, flashlights and LED and battery operated candles ready to go and easy to find in the dark. If the power goes out, it will probably be while it's dark. Don't use regular flame candles. They could cause fires. And as I said, charge up those electronic devices.

3. Be ready for a rough morning commute. If you can, avoid driving while the wind is strongest, as it's harder to control your car in wind gusts, and trees and branches and power lines might be falling on roads. Be prepared for fallen trees on roads. And don't drive over fallen power lines. That's dangerous. Also, watch out for flooded roads.

4. If you use a generator, make sure it's running well away from the house, and certainly not in it. If you do, you could easily die of carbon monoxide poisoning.

It will remain gusty all during the day Monday, but you'll start to notice the strongest winds dying down a bit in the afternoon and evening. The strongest winds for most of us will come out of the south and east overnight and tomorrow morning, then shift to westerly. The strongest winds in much of northern New York will happen once the wind shifts to the west on Monday.

Sunday Morning Update On Big Northeast Storm

Visible satellite photo at midmorning Sunday shows lots
 of clouds overe the eastern U.S. You can see sort of
a spin starting in the Carolinas. That is the start
of what will be a very strong storm roaring
through the Northeast tonight and Monday. 

Rain, locally heavy had already broken out by and before mid morning Sunday in parts of the eastern United States as the big promised storm gathers its energy.  

As we mentioned yesterday, much of the heavy rain would target much of New York State and that's already beginning.

New York's St. Lawrence Valley was already getting downpours at mid-morning Sunday, and the main storm that will come through tonight is only starting to get its act together much further south over the southeastern United States.

In fact, I'm beginning to think the heaviest rain with this storm will fall in the St. Lawrence Valley, with perhaps five inches of rain there. I also think parts of New Jersey might get slammed because there are signs some torrential thunderstorms will set up there.

The current rain band over the St. Lawrence Valley is just the first salvo. When the storm gets cranking, it's expected track, a little west of northbound from roughly the New Jersey coast into eastern New York, then a little west of Montreal, favors eastern and central New York for heavy rain.

While this storm, as expected, will cause big time flood problems in some parts of the Northeast, especially New York State and maybe parts of New Hampshire and Maine, it's looking like this will be an even more widespread wind event.

High wind warnings and watches cover most of the Northeast, with the most destructive winds expected along the coasts and in the higher elevations of New England and New York.

Gusts could reach 70 mph on the coasts from New Jersey northward through Maine. Similar gusts could hit higher elevations of the Northeast as well. Widespread gusts of 50 mph or more will probably cover the entire region. Expect lots of fallen trees and lots of power failures tonight and Monday morning especially.

Here in Vermont, the flood threat for this storm, while not gone, has eased. It looks like the heaviest rain will go by just to our west, as I described above. Another band of heavy rain and flooding could strike New Hampshire, especially near the White Mountains, and western Maine.

Flood watches are still up in southern Vermont, as the rain is expected to be pretty heavy there.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont is going with roughly one to two inches of rain across Vermont, with maybe a little less in the Northeast Kingdom and maybe a little more in southwestern Vermont.

The slow moving cold front that this storm will be riding northward along has pressed a little further east than I imagined. It had moved into Vermont this morning and is pretty much stalling out. As the main storm develops and moves northward tonight, that front will jog westward.

When that happens, it'll open the door for strong southeasterly winds, especially in the mountains and along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. Those strong southeasterly winds are why some of the flood concerns have eased in parts of Vermont: When the wind blasts down the western slopes of the mountains, it tends to compress and dry the air somewhat, leading to less rain.

Once the storm gets to our north Monday, very strong winds will blast out from the west, most affecting northern New York, higher elevations in Vermont and possibly the Champlain Valley.

Things to think about during the storm:

1. Flooding: It'll rain hard tonight especially, and flooding is much harder to see when it's dark. Any flooding that does happen could come on very fast. Careful with the driving tonight, or better yet, don't bother. This is especially true in the Adirondacks, Catskills and St. Lawrence Valley of New York, and parts of northern New Hamphire and western Maine, which has the biggest flood threat.

Also note that a lot of leaves are coming down, so storm drains in urban areas will become clogged, causing street flooding. On top of that. bunches of leaves can form dams on small brooks and streams. Then these dams suddenly let go, potentially causing a brief but intense and dangerous local flash flood.

2. High Winds: Even though it's raining out, get your lawn furniture and Halloween decorations and such indoors now, before the wind gets really cranking. You don't want that stuff blowing around tonight and tomorrow. I'd also get flash lights and LED candles ready to use in case of power failures. I'd also keep the smart phone fully charged.

Major Northeast Flood/Wind Storm Still Due; Forecast Is Tricky

The heaviest rain with this storm is now expected
to be across New York State, but downpours will'
happen throughout the Northeast. Forecast is
of course subject to change. 

A variety of weather alerts are up for the northeastern United States, including Vermont, as the region braces for the big storm we've been anticipating for days now.

Most of the alerts are flash flood watches. Those flash flood watches cover all of New England except northern Maine and Vermont's Champlain Valley. (I'll explain that in a bit)

Also covered under the flash flood watches are pretty much all of New York State except the far west, and sections of northern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey.

High wind watches are up for many areas, especially southern and eastern New England, which looks like will take the brunt of the wind.

The expected path of the main storm system has shifted a little west, so the heaviest rain now seems most likely in eastern and central New York. That said, the path of the storm is not set in stone, because there's a lot of moving parts to this forecast.

That tropical disturbance that is feeding a lot of moisture into this storm system will probably become Tropical Storm Philippe later today.  (And it will bring heavy rains to places like Cuba and South Florida.)

While wannabe Philippe probably won't become the rapidly strengthening storm system in the Northeast Sunday night, it's coming along for the ride.

Wannabe Philippe will probably move northeastward, but off the coast in tandem with the main storm as it moves north. The question is how much of Philippe's energy will be absorbed into the more inland main storm?

We know we're in for a big storm regardless of what happens, but if Philippe's moves further west than expected, more of its energy will become part of the main show that will affect us here in the Northeast.

Regionwide, it looks like the heaviest rain and strongest winds will sweep through Sunday night and the first part of Monday.

There could be locally up to six inches of rain in the core of the heaviest precipitation in New York State, which certainly explains the flood watches there. Slightly lesser amounts, but still heavy downpours, are likely in New England.

For most of New England, including all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley, the combination of this week's heavy rain along with the new big storm arriving has prompted flash flood watches.

The Champlain Valley has no flood watch, at least for now, because the rain this past week was lighter there, and the rainfall with the upcoming storm, while quite heavy, won't be as bad as in New York State.

But stay tuned. Everyone is refining forecasts, and the Champlain Valley could easily be added to the flood watch zone.

As I said yesterday, I don't think this will rise to the level of Hurricane Irene flooding, at least in most areas. But parts of New York in particular could have some serious problems. Even here in Vermont, there's the potential this could go beyond the level of the usual nuisance flooding that closes low-lying roads.

If you live in a flood prone area anywhere in the Northeast, including pretty much anywhere in Vermont, pay close attention to this one. You might have to get out of the way of flood waters pronto, and you won't have much lead time.

As far as winds go, the strongest winds are usually on the east side of this type of storm system, which explains why eastern and southern New England are under the high wind watches.

The expected track of the storm will probably take it close to Vermont (this idea is subject to change) so perhaps the winds won't be as bad here. Still, it will get pretty gusty Sunday through Monday, especially in higher elevations, so expect some power failures in Vermont, and throughout the Northeast.

This is a much stronger and wetter storm than we're used to, even here in stormy New England. This one is a hunker down type thing. Pay attention Monday morning, as your commute or trip to school might be screwed up by flooding and/or wind.

Predictions right up to and during the storm will shift, so pay attention to updated alerts, warnings and forecasts. Not only is this storm going to be quite strong, it's a weird one meteorologically.

It's hard to forecast weird storms. So expect the unexpected.

Continued Concerns About Flooding, Windy Northeast Storm Coming

One computer model depicts a very strong
storm right over northern Vermont Monday morning
Flooding and strong winds are definite risks
for the Northeast Sunday and Monday.

Updated forecasts for the expected nasty storm scheduled to strike the Northeast Sunday and Monday haven't changed too much from yesterday, which means we should still be bracing for flooding and wind.

The bullseye for where the heaviest rain will come down seems now to be over eastern New York and western New England, from Connecticut through Vermont all the way to at least Montreal.

This expected zone of heaviest rain will continue to shift around a bit until we get to the storm, but a lot of people in and near this zone can probably expect two to six inches of rain out of this storm.

It's interesting that the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released Thursday with data from before the rains started this week, showed expanding dryness and even drought through much of New England, including most of Vermont.

But the rains have already come big time this week. So much for the fire danger we were under a week ago.

Yesterday's rain storm was an overachiever, at least in western and northern New England. Flood warnings were up for a time in central Massachusetts, northern New Hampshire and pieces of western Maine.

In Vermont, the Champlain Valley was expected about a quarter inch of rain yesterday, but got more than an inch instead. Radar estimates had two to three inches of rain in spots southeast of Burlington and a little east of St. Albans.

All this means that the soil is holding more moisture than it did a few days ago, and won't be able to absorb quite as much rainfall from the upcoming storm had it remained dry. True, the soil is not super saturated and the rivers aren't super high, but there is now less capacity for heavy rains to drain off or soak in without doing harm.

I think you will see flood watches hoisted for much of the region over the next couple of days. This almost surely won't be as bad as the Tropical Storm Irene flooding of 2011. In fact, I can't say for sure whether there will actually be flooding or not, but it's something to definitely keep an eye on.

The forecast scenario for this thing is still the same. A wet, slow moving cold front will approach from the west and ripples of small storms will ride northward along the front, dumping heavy rain.

The last storm moving north will likely tap moisture and energy from that tropical disturbance over the western Caribbean and turn into a powerhouse storm that will probably track right over New England. (One computer model has the intense storm right over Burlington, Vermont shortly after dawn Monday morning.)

Strong winds will probably be a problem with this storm, especially along the coast and in the mountains. The winds will affect rainfall, too. In places where the wind goes up the sides of mountains, the rain will be heavier, increasing the risk of flooding in those locations.

In spots where the wind descends the slopes of the mountains, the rain will be somewhat lighter, which could minimize flooding potential in some areas. We'll have to get closer to the event to tease out the picky details.

On the bright side, no rain is forecast until the storm and cold front start to affect the Northeast Saturday night.

This update is of course broadbrush, since we're three days away from the storm and things could easily change. The expected rainfall with this could either go up or down depending on the strength of the storm when it gets here, or the expected zone of heaviest rain could move around some.

We also don't know how strong the winds will be, and where they will be strongest. As always, stay tuned.

Worries Rise Over Possible Big New England Flood Sunday/Monday

Parts of the Northeast, including most of New England
can expect two to six inches of rain over the next
few days because of a series of storms.
Flooding will be risk Sunday and Monday.

I'm getting a little worried about a very, very wet storm that is due to strike New England Sunday and Monday.  

If things gather together the way some computer forecasting models suggest, there could be some nasty floods for parts of the region by Sunday night or Monday.

Of course, we do not know yet for sure if these floods will develop, and if they do, exactly where the worst of it will be and how bad.

Parts of New England are already dealing with flood problems. Most of the issues are in southern and eastern parts of the region.

A slow moving front touched off flooding in sections of New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts and Connecticut Tuesday night and Wednesday.

That same weather front is still stalled in or near eastern New England today. A little storm riding north along the front has brought renewed rains to all of New England, and some of it is enough to trigger new flood alerts, especially in central Massachusetts and Downeast Maine.

This, however, is potentially only a warmup.

A new, slow moving cold front is likely to approach the East Coast and move into the Northeast Sunday. There will be little storms rippling northward along the front again to enhance the rain. Worse, it looks like the last storm moving northward along the front will tap intense moisture from a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea. 

This last storm will probably strenghten into a nor'easter and dump boatloads of rain on New England and eastern New York. It's possible - not definite, but possible - that the storm could dump three to six inches of rain on part of the region. That's what could spell the big flood problems, especially in areas that had heavy rain this week.

Especially along the coast, the storm later Sunday could bring winds strong enough to take down some trees and power lines.

Here in Vermont, my first guess is the threat is a bit lower, only because the autumn has been kind of dry and there's room for water to soak in. But don't bet on it. If it rains hard enough, we, too, could be looking at flood problems come later Sunday or Monday.

This seems to have been a pattern we've seen all year, and to an extent previous years: It gets too dry, then we have too much rain too fast, then it gets dry again. Rinse and repeat.

There's no need to panic over Sunday's potential storm, but I would keep watching for updated forecasts, especially if you live in a flood-prone area.

Extremely Weird Warmth, Humidity In Vermont; Northeast Downpours, Too.

A bright rainbow amid lingering fall foliage Tuesday
in St. Albans, Vermont.

I've just got to say what a truly bizarrely warm, humid day Tuesday was here in Vermont, especially the western parts of the state.

It would have been a run of the mill day for July, as very humid air spawned showers, clouds, with breaks of sun working in, too.

Burlington, Vermont had a record high of 78 degrees, which is 24 degrees hotter than normal. The low temperature for the day was 65 degrees, or a full 28 degrees toastier than average for this time of year.

The most remarkable thing for the weather geek in me was the humidity. The dew point, which is one good way to measure how sticky things are out there, got as high as 66 degrees. In mid-summer we start complaining a little bit about the humidity when the dew point gets to 60 and we whine loudly when it approaches 70 degrees.

So you see how oddly humid it was.

The month of October has so far been spectacularly warm. As of Tuesday, Burlington was running 10 degrees above normal for the month so far, on pace to make October, 2017 the warmest on record.

This is coming in a year with lots of odd hot spells, like the 72 reading in late February and the four day stretch of 90 degree heat in late September. It's a weird year, for sure.

The long advertised heavy rain band that was to have slowly moved through the region yesterday did so, but faster than anticipated across eastern New York and all but far eastern Vermont. That meant rainfall totals weren't has heavy there as anticipated, but at least we got some nice rainbows as the sun popped out on the tail end of the showers late Tuesday afternoon.

The rain band did slow down a lot once it got into New Hampshire, central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. A flash flood warning was up for much of New Hampshire's White Mountains early this morning as some areas got three or more inches of rain last night. Pinkham Notch, New Hampshire reported 4.77 inches of rain last night.

Eastern Massachusetts is under the gun for downpours today, with possible local flash floods. Further west in Vermont, it will be a partly sunny, nice and warm day, but not nearly as hot as Tuesday.

The overall weather pattern favors continued storminess in the Northeast, with a gradual cooldown toward near normal temperatures.

A small storm will ride north along the nearly stalled weather front over far eastern New England, which will throw back showers westward as far as eastern New York.

Another very wet, windy storm is due Sunday or Sunday night, which promises to dump some heavy rain somewhere in the Northeast. I'm not sure yet who will be in the bullseye, but Vermont will get some more needed rain. However, eastern New England, which does not need the rain, could also get seriously dumped on.

By the way, Vermont wasn't the only place in the nation oddly hot on Tuesday.  A record heat wave engulfed southern California. It was 108 degrees in San Luis Obispo,  California, tying the record for the hottest temperature for so late in the season anywhere in the United States.

At the start of Game 1 of the World Series last night in Los Angeles, it was an incredibly sweltering 103 degrees. Yikes!

Stormy East, Fiery West Continues Today

Tornado damage Monday in South Carolina

The well-advertised storminess in the East is continuing today with lots of rain, wind and maybe even a couple of tornadoes.

And out west, so far, there's been no gigantic wildfires as of early this morning, but the danger is still extremely high.

Let's tackle the details of the eastern storm first.

Several tornadoes spun up in the Carolinas Monday. There was damage around Spartanburg, South Carolina and other areas of the state, but no serious injuries were reported.

Today, the action shifts northward toward us here in Vermont and the rest of New England. Flash flood watches are up for the Berkshires of western Massachusetts and far southern Vermont as the rain is expected to come down hard at times.

A few thunderstorms could become severe from southern Vermont on down into New Jersey. There could even be an isolated tornado in this zone, especially from the Hudson Valley of New York southward.

Heavy rain is also a good bet outside the flash flood watch zone, including all of Vermont, but flooding won't be widespread. That is except in urban areas, where fallen leaves clog storm drains a the downpours move in.

The heavy rain band, over central New New York and eastern Pennsylvania early this morning, will slowly shift east and reach Vermont and the rest of western New England by afternoon. From there, the downpours will slowly shift eastward across the region.

The wind was picking up outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont before dawn today and it's going to be quite the windy day. That's especially true in the higher elevations and in the Champlain Valley, where southerly winds will funnel through between the Green Mountains to the east and Adirondacks to the west.

Gusts will easily reach 45 mph or more in some locations, so I expect some scattered power failures during the day today.   I think the strongest winds will come just ahead of that band of heavy rain that is slowly trudging eastward.

Also ahead of the rain band, it's incredibly warm for this time of year. At 6 a.m. it was 70 degrees in Burlington, Vermont, just five degrees shy of the record high for the date. And the sun wasn't even up yet!

I actually think Wednesday afternoon will turn out fairly decent as a pocket of dry air moves in. There will be partial sun and temperatures will be in the 60s. Definitely toasty for this time of year.

Lighter showers move in Thursday, then it will be pretty nice Friday and Saturday before another, potentially very wet storm comes in later Sunday or Sunday night.

WESTERN FIRE ALERTS

Southern California dodged a bullet Monday, with no major fires reported despite an incredibly high fire danger, but they are not at all out of the woods yet.

Santa Ana winds are continuing today, with temperatures topping 100 degrees in many areas. The relative humidity is under 10 percent and winds are gusting to 50 mph or more in some areas. Southern California could still ignite today.

The high plains of Montana and Wyoming  are under the gun for wildfires tomorrow. Strong winds, very warm temperatures for this time of years, and bone dry air will make rangeland fires likely in that area.

New England To Turn VERY Wet; Critical Fire Danger Again In California

Lots of rain forecast for the East this week. Bright red
areas indicate an expected three inches of rain
or more over the next seven days.

The long, incredible stretch of dry, sunny and unseasonably warm weather is about to end here in the Northeast, in favor of a turn toward very, very wet weather.

Meanwhile, southern California is bracing for what could be more destructive wildfires.

I'll start with our local situation here in New England, though it's not nearly as dangerous as the one in California.

HEAVY RAIN COMING

The approaching storm system is really just a slow moving, wiggly cold front with waves of relatively weak low pressure riding north along it.

But this weather front is scooping up tons and tons of tropical moisture, so it looks like it will rain quite hard at times, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday. This fire hose of moisture and heavier rain will work its way slowly eastward across the region during this time.

Severe thunderstorms and even a few tornadoes could accompany this mess of a storm. The threat of severe storms and a couple of tornadoes today is down in the Carolinas and Virginia. On Tuesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms runs through eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York's Hudson Valley and even into Vermont.

South of Vermont probably south of Albany, there might even be a tornado or two on Tuesday. Up  here in Vermont, the (relatively low) threat from severe storms is strong, damaging winds.

And lots of rain.

Some areas of New England, including south and southeastern facing slopes in Vermont's Green Mountains, could get three or more inches of rain out of this.

Often, that much rain raises the possibility of at least minor flooding, but not this time. It's been so dry the rivers should be able to handle the precipitation just fine. We need the rain.

The exception to the "no flood" forecast is some urban areas. It was already getting windy early Monday morning in the Champlain Valley, and it will get even windier as the rain approaches Tuesday.

That'll knock a lot of leaves off the trees, and the heavy rains will take even more foliage down. So I imagine there could be some areas of urban flooding as storm drains get clogged with leaves during the expected downpours.

On the bright side, it's gotten so dry that there's a fire danger in Vermont and other parts of the Northeast. The rain will end that risk.  Not so in California. No way.

CALIFORNIA FIRE RISK:

It's looking pretty scary in southern California today and tomorrow with a strong Santa Ana windstorm coming.

Santa Anas are hot, dry winds that blow from the northeast, from the deserts and blast into southern  California, especially in the vast developments in and around Los Angeles. The wind blows down the slopes of the mountains toward the coast.

That downward motion compresses the air, making it even hotter and drier. In this case, record high temperatures above 100 degrees are expected in the Los Angeles basin today and Tuesday. Relative humidities will drop into the single digits. Winds will gust past 50 mph in some areas. And it hasn't really rained since last spring. It's bone dry.

You can see why people are nervous. The tiniest little spark could cause a terrible conflagration. 

It's hard to get National Weather Service meteorologists to speak in dire language, but when things get extreme enough, they do. Here's part of a statement from the NWS office in Los Angeles.

"The duration, strength and widespread nature of this Santa Ana wind event combined with the extreme heat and very dry fuels will bring the most dangerous fire weather conditions that Southwest California has seen in the past few years. If fire ignition occurs, there will be the potential for ery rapid spread of wildfire with long range spotting and extreme fire behavior that could lead to a thret to life and property."

Great. Just what California needs. Another fire disaster.  Maybe we'll get lucky and avoid such a disaster. The nation doesn't need another calamity.

CAL fire had deployed additional firefighters to southern California, some from as far away as Australia, to get ready for any fires to break out. They're trying to stay on top of the situation, but it sounds like no matter how talented the fire crews, this one could get away from them.

Stay tuned.

Driver Gets Caught In Oklahoma Tornado (Luckily Not A Big One)

Upper part of an exterior wall at a Norman, Oklahoma
casino and hotel damaged by a tornado last night

Yesterday, as expected severe weather broke out in parts of the southern Plains, especially in Oklahoma, where a few tornadoes were reported.

As an aside, this outbreak of severe weather is an ingredient that will lead to quite a big of wet weather here in Vermont during the middle of the week. It's still unclear how much rain we'll get, but it could be a lot.

Which is OK, because we need it.

Anyway, here's the view last night from inside a vehicle in a Norman, Oklahoma parking lot: This tornado was near the Riverwind Casino, which suffered some damage in the storm. A Beach Boys concert was in progress inside the casino when the tornado hit. There are no reports of serious injuries.

Here's the video:

West Coast Is Where Weather Action Is At, But Things Will Get Active Here, Eventually

Northern California fires are now largely contained, but
weather conditions could prompt new wildfires over the
next few days, especially in southern California.

Most of the weather action over the next couple of days will take place out west, especially along the West Coast, as we Vermonters bask in the very warm, sprawling high pressure system that's stuck over us and much of the rest of the East.

Here, temperatures will be way, way above normal all weekend with wall to wall sunshine, so perfect if you want to get outside to check out the lingering foliage, or just get yard work done.

But expect bad weather for that kind of thing on parts of the West Coast.

In Washington State, a very strong, wet storm is moving in this weekend. Enough rain could come with it to touch off some flash flooding. That's especially true in areas that had forest fires this summer. The trees and plants and such that held soil in place burned away, so the heavy rain get wash away dirt and fire debris and anything else. This could be dangerous.

It had been hoped that some of this rain would sneak down into the San Francisco Bay area and the Napa and Sonoma areas of California, since this is where those big, deadly wild fires were earlier this month. Some of those fires are still burning, and it would have been nice if a little of the rain from the Washington storm would move south.

Unfortunately, it's not to be. All the rain looks like it's going to stay north of this burn area. On the bright side, it did rain a little in this region Thursday, with Napa, California picking up 0.19 inches of rain. Not much, but a help. On the dark side, it looks like it's going to turn hotter and windier and drier in northern California next week.

Meanwhile, there's a strong risk of new wildfires erupting in southern California today through Tuesday. A Santa Ana event is taking shape, which would bring strong winds from the deserts, high, near record heat and very low humidity to much of southern California.

Fire warnings and excessive heat watches are in effect for much of southern California, as you's expect.

The other hotspot in the weather today is the southern and central Plains, especially around Oklahoma, where tornadoes and severe thunderstorms could erupt today.

Eventually, some of this activity out west will consolidate and set up some storminess in the eastern United States by midweek. The rain will affect Vermont, which is great since it's been so dry. We're not yet sure how much rain will come down, but we'll take anything we can get.

I had originally thought we'd get a winter preview by the end of the upcoming week. It will cool down by then, but only down to slightly warmer than normal conditions, compared to the much  warmer than average weather we're having this weekend.

Global Hot Streak Continues: September Was Fourth Hottest

September, 2017 was the fourth warmest on record
for the Earth as a whole

It wasn't just us Vermonters who sweated their way through one of the hottest Septembers on record.

For the globe as a whole, September, 2017 was the fourth warmest on record, says NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. The only warmer Septembers were all very recent: 2014, 2015 and 2016.

That echoes what happened locally here in Vermont. The hottest Septembers on record in Burlington were 2015, 2016 and 2017.

Climatologists had expected 2017 to cool off slightly from the record global warmth of 2015 and 2016. So far it appears 2017 did cool, but barely. It's hardly noticeable. We're still on track for 2017 to be either the second or third warmest year on record for the Earth as a whole.

To me and many others, this is part of mounting evidence that global warming continues unabated, as if we needed more proof.

By the way, NOAA says this was the 24th consecutive September and 283rd consecutive month that Earth's land temperatures were about the 20th century average.

Also, there were two weather disasters in September that each caused at least a billion dollars in damage, says Dr. Jeff Masters in the Category 6 blog. Those disasters were Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. That makes 21 billion dollar disasters so far this year, which is about average for this point in the year.

Since then, Hurricane Maria and the recent northern California wildfires have happened and those are likely to also be disasters each costing more than a billion dollars.

Big Weather Changes In Store For Vermont, Eastern U.S. Next Week

A bit of snow on maple leaves in October, 2014 in St.
Albans, Vermont. It's possible we might see
a similar scene around or just prior to Halloween.

After a brief excursion into normal autumn weather Monday into Tuesday morning, it is back to sunshine and warmth around Vermont and the rest of the Northeast.

Temperatures around here flirted with 70 degrees yesterday, and warm southerly winds overnight in the Champlain Valley kept pre-dawn temperatures in the upper 50s this morning. Such temperatures at that time of day would not be unusual in July.

After a brief cool down to only slightly warmer than normal conditions Friday, it's back to the warmth and sunshine over the weekend.

We are in the running for the warmest October on record. If not that, at least the top 10.  This after one of the warmest Septembers on record.

There is a big potential drawback to all of this warm, dry, sunny, breezy weather. There's a rising risk of wildfires in Vermont and other parts of the Northeast. Leaves are falling, grasses, weeds and shrubs are brown and drying out.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington put out the alert today to avoid outdoor burning, since any sparks can get away from you and start a brush or forest fire.

But big changes are afoot, changes that will bring us a bunch of welcome rain, and then at least a brief cold blast later next week.

A deep trough of low pressure is likely to set up in the eastern half of the nation for awhile next week, bringing the storminess and eventually the cooler weather.

You'll see the first signs of this on Saturday, when the developing storm system will likely bring a bout of severe weather to parts of the Plains state.

From there, a very slow moving cold front will trudge eastward, making it to New England Tuesday and Wednesday. That's when I expect we'll get a good dousing of needed rain.  Especially since a rather wet storm might ride northward along the front, tracking from somewhere in the southeastern U.S. to over or near New England.

Eventually, after the rains midweek, I think it will cool down to at least seasonable levels in Vermont and the rest of New England. This certainly won't be the Great Cold Wave of '17, but it'll be a sign that winter is approaching

I expect by or before Halloween, the northern New England mountains will probably be snowcapped, and there might even be a few wet snowflakes in the valleys.

You knew "endless summer" 'had to end sometime, right?

Portugal Fire Videos Show How Scary They Were

Wildfires menacing Braga, Portugal this week

The death toll from the wildfires in Portugal and Spain over the past couple of days has reached 36.

Between this fire and the ones in Portugal back in June, 99 people have died in wildfires in that country this year. Previously, the most fatalities from fire in a single year in Portugal was 25.  

It's been a bad year for wildfires in many parts of the world. Just ask people in northern California, where the death toll from fires this month is now at 41 and could still rise. And western Canada spent most of the summer on fire.

Here's the fire advancing on a bunch of people along a road in Portugal. I don't know how the guy with the big branch in his hand thought he was going to beat back the flames with it, but hope springs eternal, I guess:



Chaos and panic brought on by the fires in Galacia, Spain:



An amazing fire tornado in Portugal during the height of the fires. For scale, look for the person and the car to the left of the fire twister:

Will Hurricanes Migrate North With Climate Change?

A woman photographs giant coastal waves in southern England
created by ex-hurricane Ophelia. Photo by Matt Cardy/
Getty Images

As expected, ex-hurricane Ophelia trashed Ireland with strong, damaging winds Monday, killing at least three people, unroofing buildings, tossing down countless trees and leaving more than 360,000 people with electricity.

Was Ophelia a rare one-off, just one of those storms that were still almost hurricanes by the time it reached Europe?  After all, this has happened before, with Debbie in 1961 being the most cited example.

However, there are indications that with global warming, hurricanes are drifting further and further north. These storms thrive on warm water. If warm water is further north, the logic goes, hurricanes would go further north, too.

This has implications for Europe, of course. If a storm retains hurricane status further north, then the storm's inevitable transition to non-tropical storm status would come further north. But that poleward shift means these storms would be stronger than they would be had they lost their tropical characteristics further south.

Is Europe due for a lot more Ophelias? The jury is out, but the signs are there. A 2014 University of Wisconsin study noted there has been a "pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones have achieved their lifetime maximum intensity over the past 30 years."

If global warming brings tropical storms and hurricanes further north, that has implications for us New Englanders.

Of course, we are already sometimes hit by hurricanes and tropical storms - even major ones. The Great Hurricane of 1938 was Category 3 when it reached Long Island and New England, killing more than 600 people.

Even weaker tropical storms can wreak havoc. Just ask any Vermonter who had to deal with the flooding from Tropical Storm Irene in 2011.

Aftermath of the Great New England hurricane of 1938
in Connecticut. Will global warming drive more such
storms northward? More research is needed.

However, tropical storms and hurricanes, even ones that reach New England and southeastern Canada, usually weaken as they approach because the waters off the Northeast coast are cool. Remember, hurricanes need very warm water.

If ocean waters off the coasts of New England and Canada warm, perhaps this weakening trend in most northward moving tropical storms and hurricanes could lessen, creating more powerful storms for us.

Some studies suggest New England could be more prone to tropical storms and hurricanes in a warmer future, but more research is definitely needed to confirm this.

That future is not cast in stone. More research is needed. But it is something to consider.

Ophelia, Wildfires Trash Europe, And A Word About Vermont Frost Tonight

A stadium damaged by Ophelia
today in Ireland.

I know frost during October in Vermont is not exactly unusual or a disaster, especially compared to the weather extremes and dangers in Europe most of this post will be about.

We're talking what was Hurricane Ophelia, now a powerful storm trashing Ireland. And we're talking scary, deadly wildfires in Portugal and Spain.

VERMONT FROST 

But, I'm based in Vermont, so I'll get our frost out of the way first: Although much of Vermont has already had frost this autumn, the Champlain Valley and a few other places have not. Which is pretty late in the month to go frost-free.

That will change tonight. A freeze warning is in effect for the Champlain Valley tonight, which means most of us will go below freezing. Anything that's still growing outside that you want to keep should either come inside, or you should try covering them up.

Even covering them might not totally be enough in many areas, especially away from the lake, since it will be so cold.

There are no frost warnings away from Lake Champlain because the growing season is considered done there. But some garden plants survived earlier cold weather elsewhere in Vermont, where temperatures will be in the 20s tonight.

Warmer weather returns for the rest of the week, but it won't be quite as toasty as the near-record mid and upper 70s we saw on Sunday.

OPHELIA

As I write this Monday morning, Ireland was being trashed by what was Hurricane Ophelia. It has finally lost its tropical characteristics but not its power. Ophelia had set a record over the weekend as the most north and east in the Atlantic a major hurricane has reached.

The peak of the storm in Ireland arrived at around mid-morning local time. There's already a report of a woman killed by a falling tree. About 120,000 people were without power and officials warned of coastal waves the height of a double decker bus.

Social media posts are showing roofs blowing off buildings, large waves crashing into shorelines and many, many trees down.

A 118 mph gust has already been reported at one coastal Irish location.

Ophelia was forecast to slam Northern Ireland, Scotland and parts of northern England this afternoon local time.

Ex-hurricanes that were full-fledged hurricanes just prior to hitting the British Isles are rare. The last time this happened was in 1961, when Hurricane Debbie, which had just transitioned from hurricane to powerful mid-latitude storm, killed 11 people in Ireland.

In another odd twist, Ophelia brought Saharan dust all the way north to Great Britain, so places where the sun was still out yesterday and this morning had an eerie red disc for a sun as all the dust in the air  caused this effect.

WILDFIRES IN PORTUGAL

Well east of Ophelia, southerly winds, partly associated with the storm, brought hot, dry conditions to Portugal and Spain, and wildfires on par with the recent ones in California resulted.

At least 30 people have died in the fires in Portugal and Spain, and the death toll is expected to rise. Record heat in the mid 80s to mid 90s contributed to the fires, as did strong winds on the outer fringes of Ophelia. The region also experienced an extremely hot, dry summer.

Sadly, it appears that most of the fires over the past couple of days were deliberately set, so some arsonists killed all these people and burned hundreds of homes and businesses.

Slightly cooler, somewhat wetter conditions are forecast over the next few days, which should help firefighting efforts.

This is the second major wildfire calamity in Portugal this year. June wildfires in that nation killed 64 people.

California Fires: Today Is A Particularly Dangerous Day

Aerial view of destroyed Santa Rosa, CA cul de sac
Phot by Josh Edelson/Getty Images

The death toll from this week's California wildfires keeps rising and was 35 at last check.

Given the forecast for today and tonight, things might be about to get much worse today.

Gusty winds yesterday continued to spread the flames, but more and more firefighters are pouring into California, and some fires are now at least partially contained.

However in both northern and southern California today and tonight, the weather will turn gruesome again. Hot, dry winds - almost as strong as those that set off the northern California firestorm Sunday night, are forecast to resume today and continue overnight.

Similarly, hot dry Santa Ana winds are forecast for the same period in southern California. This could rapidly spread existing fires, and touch off new, dangerous ones.

At least the focus is on California now, and, as noted, there are now plenty of firefighters deployed in parts of the state.

Even if people heed evacuation orders in a timely fashion, I'm sure more homes and businesses will go up in flames.

In hard hit Santa Rosa, population 175,000, more than five percent of the city's housing stock went up in flames, says NPR.

So far, 90,000 people have been evacuated and 5,700 California homes have burned down in the fires. This is easily the worst fire disaster in modern California history.

Areas away from the immediate fire zone continue to deal with bad air quality from the smoke. NBC News says the fires emitted as much air pollution in a week as all the cars in California do in a year.

Hospitals are reporting an influx of people with breathing problems. Outdoor activities, such as sporting events and a half marathon, have been canceled in the Bay Area. The NFL is considering moving the Oakland Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers game out of Oakland if the pollution persists.

By the way, it will be weeks before the California fire season ends. The state's most dangerous and most destructive wildfires tend to occur in October and November.

Computer models are giving mixed messages on a not-so-powerful storm that could come ashore in northern California next weekend. It will likely drop some rain, which will help, but it's unclear how much precipitation will come along.

It's almost guarateed to be not enough to totally end the fire risk. And very little rain is anticipated in southern California.

At Least Trump Got Us Thinking About Post-Maria Puerto Rico Again

Somebody wrote "HELP" on the roof of this hurricane-
ravaged building in Puerto Rico

Say what you want about Donald Trump's mean tweets about Puerto Rico that he rattled off Thursday morning: He did get us thinking about Puerto Rico and its struggling recovery from Hurricane Maria.

Which is a good thing, since there's a humanitarian crisis continuing in Puerto Rico and we should be thinking about it.

In case you missed it, Trump said this:

"We cannot keep FEMA, the Military & First Responders, who have been amazing (under the most difficult circumstances) in P.R. forever."

Never mind that it's only been three weeks since Category 4 Hurricane Maria slammed Puerto Rico, that food is not getting to some people yet, that 40 percent of the population has no good access to clean drinking water, and 85 percent or so of the  island still does not have electricity.

Not to mention Puerto Ricans are American citizens and need the same kind of help we afford other people caught up in national disasters.

FEMA usually helps with disasters long term. As CNN notes, FEMA is still involved in recovery from Hurricane Katrina (2005) Hurricanes Ike and Gustav and Iowa floods (all 2008) Vermont and New York's own Hurricane Irene (2011) and many other disasters dating back two to ten years.

So why the rush to get out of Puerto Rico, Mr. President?

Many disasters that have afflicted the nation this year. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The ongoing California fires (death toll 31 and rising) and a Denver area hailstorm in May ($2.1 billion in damage)

But Hurricane Maria is surely the worst disaster of the year for us, especially in terms of the death toll.  Official counts put the number of deaths from Maria in Puerto Rico so far at 45. That's bad, but doesn't seem as awful as some huge calamaties.

Yet, I'm sure - and a lot of experts agree - that we'll learn the Puerto Rican death toll is much higher. And will continue to climb due to a faulty relief effort. One analysis by Vox estimated the death toll there at 450 so far.

Of course, it's tricky to get an accurate count of deaths caused by the aftermath of the storm. Are people dying for lack of good water and adequate food? Most healthy people can survive temporary food shortages, but people who were sick to begin with can't. How do we determine if they died from the disaster and its aftermath or from natural causes?

That's being picky. Because surely people are dying in Puerto Rico who wouldn't have had they gotten aid fast enough. One death is too many. We have to wonder how many are dying. Scary.

In any event, Vox says some members of Congress want an audit of Maria deaths in Puerto Rico to get a more accurate view of the cope of this crisis.

Aid, especially to the interior of Puerto Rico is shockingly inadequate.

The New York Times said dialysis patients have had their treatments cut back for lack of electricity, putting these people in mortal danger. People are also getting sick and even dying of water-borne diseases.

The hospital ship U.S.S. Comfort is docked in San Juan harbor, but few people have been airlifted there. As of Wednesday, only seve people were being treated on the ship, which  has a capacity for 250 patients.

On top of all this, it seems plenty of food and water is making it to Puerto Rico at the moment, but not all of it is being distributed to the people who most need it.

Blocked, wrecked roads, poor communication, no electricity and a host of other factors are keeping relief from people, especially in remote areas.

Let's keep the pressure on the administration to stay with Puerto Rico as long as it takes to get the territory completely back on its feet. We can't rely on Trump to accidentally and temporarily put our focus there. We have to do it ourselves, in a sustained way.