"Baboon" Cuts Power In Phoenix As Auto Correct Reigns

This baboon, I mean haboob, which is a big dust storm, cut power
to an Arizona Diamondbacks game Monday.  ESPN accidentally
reported the problem was cause by a baboon. Damn autocorrect!

The Major League Baseball game in Phoenix Monday between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Texas Rangers was delayed by a power failure.

ESPN reporter Pedro Gomez was quick with the explanation in this tweet: "@Rangers and @Dbacks delayed because a baboon went through town and overloaded the grid, knocking some lights out." 

That is one powerful ape!

Turns out, as you can imagine, it wasn't a baboon cutting the power in Phoenix, but a haboob, which is one of those raging dust storms that often sweep through Arizona during the summer monsoon season.

The storm was severe. Tens of thousands of people lost power. A palm tree snapped in half and crashed through the roof of a house. Outside of Phoenix, high winds upended a mobile home and flash flooding was reported

And damn autocorrect victimized Gomez.

Haboobs form when strong downdrafts from summer thunderstorms stir up walls of dust that sweep through the desert, and sometimes through cities like Phoenix. They are dangerous, cutting visibiity on roads to next to nothing. People sometimes die in highway crashes in haboobs.

However, autocorrect.

You  have to wonder if the mascot for the NBA Phoenix Suns had something to do with this. Their mascot, the Suns Gorilla, said on Twitter he had an alibi, that he was out on a date with Shania Twain.

Yeah, Twitter is a weird place.

Gomez later tweeted that the Diamondbacks should sign this mystery baboom he created. "Looked like he had a power arm," he tweeted.

On my Mac, autocorrect keeps changing "haboob" to "kabob" which sounds like a tasty way to cut electricity to a major city like Pheonix.

I have to wonder what autocorrect has in store for other weather terms that have been in the news lately, like "pyrocumulus" "Bermuda High" "monsoon" and "precipitable water."

Maybe I should experiment.

One-Day Humidity Break Over; Another Steambath Week

Amid all the humidity and warmth we've had lately, the sky over
northern Vermont often seems to have a tropical look to it. 

I hope my fellow Vermonters and others in the area enjoyed their one-day break from the humidity that has smothered us for the better part of a month now.

It certainly was refreshing this morning. Burlington, Vermont had dipped below 60 degrees for the first time since July 20. The humidity dropped yesterday and it's still low.  

This week, though, it's back to the steambath. Today won't be all that humid, but it will warm up into the 80s, with even a few spots in the upper 80s today.

Then that Bermuda High will re-assert itself, a dip in the jet stream will form to our west again, and it's rinse and repeat. This week will be much like last week.

Count on plenty of humidity, with stuffy nights and oppressive days. Overnight lows will get down to only into the 60s to around 70 most of the week, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Low to mid 80s isn't really bad, until you factor in the high humidity levels.

We still really, really need the rain, despite some relief from the dry conditions last week. The forecast picture is mixed on that front. The humidity, and the trough of low pressure to our west, will create a decent chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day, especially Wednesday through Friday or Saturday.

It won't be an area-wide soaking, though. These showers and storms will be hit and miss, as usual. Some places will get decent downpours, others will get just sprinkles, if that. As of last Thursday, the U.S. Drought Monitor had all of Vermont in either moderate drought or abnormally dry conditions, so we should hope the downpours are more widespread than the sprinkles.

You usually don't get widespread, soaking rains in the summer anyway. Often, we have to wait until September or October for that sort of thing,  unless some sort of tropical storm or hurricane remnants head our way. That's not in the cards for the foreseeable future.

If you have your air conditioner, keep 'em cranking this week. If not, August starts this week. Summer will begin to wane, and soon enough you will be complaining about how chilly it is out there.

Something Resembling Fire Tornado Terrifies Redding, California

Photo grab of an intense tornado-like fire whirl in Redding
California this week 

Yesterday, I wrote about the terrifying wildfire that ripped through Redding, California and surrounding communities, killing two people.

ABC10 now gives us an even more scary video of the fire.  The intense blaze caused a tornado-like vortex that made things even more unreal. The video is at the bottom of this post.

Big wildfires, with their intense updrafts, can create their own thunderstorms (Pyrocumulus is the name of the thunderstorm clouds that form in the updrafts over wildfires.)  These pyrocumulus thunderstorms, or whatever you want to call them, create erratic winds, that can get incredibly strong.

Sometimes, rotations set up that are as bad as tornadoes. In rare cases the wildfires and the thunderstorms they cause create actual tornadoes. I'm not sure, but this might have been the case with the Redding fire.

The rotation you see in the video below does look tornado-like. 3-D radar images indicate strong rotation extending three miles above the surface in this firestorm, which is kind of tornadic if you ask me. And television station KCRA reported on one Redding neighborhood in which some houses didn't burn, but were badly damaged by winds from what residents said was a fire tornado. Click on this link for that video. 

In Australia, a bonafide fire tornado - a real tornado caused by a thunderstorm which in turn was caused by a wildfire, was documented in 2003.

Most fire whirls you see on the news - rotating columns of smoke and fire - are akin to dust devils but are not true tornadoes. However, I'm beginning to suspect - though I'm not a scientist - that what hit Redding might well have been a real fire tornado.

If it wasn't, it was an unusually intense ground based whirl created by the fire, as the Mercury News points out. 

Here's the video of the maybe fire tornado in Redding. Whatever it is, it was sure scary. Turn up the volume to hear what it sounded like. (Spoiler: Like the freight train when a regular tornado is coming.)



In this video, taken in Mati, Greece this week during the big wildfires there, show how the fires whip up incredible winds as they bear down. The guy taking the film accidentally locked himself out of the house when trying to let his cat in as the fire approached. The guy and the cat miraculously survived:

Another Day, Another Deadly Firestorms Sweeps Through A City

Wildfire burns a historic old schoolhouse in Shasta, California
on Thursday. Photo by Noah Berger/AP

These seem to be happening more and more lately:

Another terrible firestorm is ripping through a city, this time, Redding, California. The north-central California community of 92,000 is facing massive evacuations, at least dozens of homes burned, at least one death, and many injured. 

It's so bad that television station KRCR in Redding was knocked off the air, its staff evacuated because the area was unsafe. Apparently, they're back, because there was a live feed from the television station going as of  6:30 EDT.

There's a clip of that moment when KRCR was evacuated at the bottom of this post.

Details on this fire are still sketch as I write this early Friday morning as it is breaking news. Apparently, the fire ripped through the nearby towns of Shasta and Whiskeytown before jumping the Sacramento River and charging through Redding overnight.

"The fire is moving pretty rapidly and taking everything down in its path," said Scott McLean, spokesman for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.

Weather conditions are terrible in northern California are not expected to get better anytime soon. At one point Thursday in Redding, the temperature was 113 degrees, with an 11 percent relative humidity, with three mile visibility in smoke.

Similarly hot, dry weather is forecast for the next several days in the region.

Scientists have long warned us that wildfires would get worse as climate change takes hold, and that seems to be what's happening. Combine that with more and more people building houses in or near the wilderness and you get what happened in California last night.

Screen grab showing KRCR anchors in Redding announcing they are
going off the air because the television station was being
evacuated ahead of an oncoming wildfire

Redding joins a growing list of communities worldwide that have been devastated by wildfires in recent years. Just this week, that wildfire that roared through seaside resorts in Greece killed at least 80 people.

In 2017, wildfires destroyed 10,000 California structures, more than in the nine previous years combined, the Sacramento Bee reported. Those fires killed 43 people - more fatalities than in the previous ten years combined.

One of those fires ripped through Napa and Sonoma, destroying 5,600 structures.

Back in May, 2016, a huge wildfire blasted through Fort McMurray, Canada, destroying 2,400 structures and forcing the mass evacuation of the city's 88,000 residents.

Fire season across the Northern Hemisphere is far from over. Which community will be hit next?

Here's the clip from KRCR:



And here's an AP video of homes burning near or in Redding:

Heat Worldwide: Weather Off The Rails - Continued

People flee into the sea in Greece
as wildfires bear down on them
this week. 

It's been a busy month across the Northern Hemisphere as records keep falling in so many disparate locations.

Plus, throw in deadly wildfires, devastating flash floods, incredible hail accumulations, and a few tornadoes to make the whole mess complete, and you've got quite a July to report.

I've already described some of the very, very weird weather over the past month - the deadly Quebec heat wave that killed dozens of people, the Siberian heat wave, the extreme floods in Japan, the Midwest tornadoes, it goes on and on.

There's so many new extremes being reported over the past several days that I can't keep up. And I'll get to the weather weirdness here in Vermont later in this post.

You probably have already heard of the tragic wildfire in Greece, the one that roared through a coastal resort town and killed at least 74 people.

People had to flee on foot to the ocean ahead of the fast-advancing flames and many people didn't make it. Or, they got trapped on a cliff overlooking the sea and the blaze overtook them.

It's too horrible to even think about.

JAPAN ROASTS

Meanwhile, heat waves are still breaking records all over the world. Japan, devastated by that flood earlier this month that I mentioned, is having its worst heat wave on record.

As Dr. Jeff Masters noted in his indispensable Category 6 blog, the city of Kumagaya, Japan, about 40 miles northwest of Tokyo, reached 106 degrees on Monday, establishing the record for the hottest temperature on record anywhere in Japan.

Records there go back to at least the late 1800s.

People trying to beat the heat this week near Tokyo, Japan.
Photo by Kazuhiro Nogi/AFP/Getty Images

Until this month, the all time record high temperature for Kyoto, Japan was 101, set in 2014. Starting on July 14, six out of seven days beat that previous 101 degree reord high, peaking at 103.6 on July 19, tying Kyoto's all time record high for any month, Masters tells us. 

Needless to say, the heat wave is killing scores of people in Japan and South Korea. Several cities in both North and South Korea set all-time record high temperatures.

In Japan, the good news is the heat wave will ease within the next few days. The bads news is that's because a typhoon is headed their way. Japan can't catch a break.

FIERY SCANDINAVIA

Meanwhile, Scandanavia, including areas north of the Arctic Circle of all places, have also been contending with record heat lately.

All time record highs have been set at 14 locations in Norway, ten places in Finland and 3 towns in Sweden.

Large forest fires in Sweden this week. Photo by Maja Muslin/AFP/
Getty Images

Rare 90 degree heat has been seen north of the Arctic Circle. A village in northern Sweden just north of the Arcrtic Circle of 90.5 degrees, said climatologist Maximiliano Hererra, as reported by the Weather Channel.

It was also 90 degrees in Lapland, which we associate with winter reindeer. At least I do.

The result of all this heat is the northern fir tree forests in Scandanavia are on fire, big time.  Dozens of dangerous wildfires are burning across the region.

The bad news is it looks like intense heat will rebuild across most of western Europe, including Scandanavia, over the next few days. Those wildfires will only get worse.

NORTH AMERICA HEAT

Here in the United States, the parts of the Southwest from Texas westward  continue to bake in a relentless heat wave.

On July 23, Waco, Texas broke its all time record high temperature when it reached 114 degrees, breaking the old record of 112 set on August 12, 1969. Record high temperatures were reported across much of Texas earlier this week.

Thermal, California lived up to its name this week when it reached a record high of 122 degrees two days in a row. That's the first time on record Thermal had two consecutive days so hot.

Normally cool Seattle had three day in a row this week with 90 degree heat. This will also be onlu the fifth July in Seattle with five days that hit 90 degrees. It was 94 degrees or hotter for four days in a row in Portland, Oregon.

Way up in northern Canada - here we go with Arctic heat again, it was near 90 degrees this week in the Northwest Territories and the Yukon. Normally frigid Dawson, Yukon was 88 degrees.

Atlantic Canada shared in northern New England's oppressive humidity this week. Heat advisories were up as overnight temperatures in the region were at record highs.

Here in Vermont, Burlington is on track to possibly have its hottest month on record. It depends on what the closing days of the month do. (The next few days are going to be somewhat cooler than they recently have been. It has been 90 degrees ten times this month, tying the record for the second highest number of such days. (There were 11 days in the 90s in July, 1949.)

This post is statistics heavy. Here, I just wanted to prove that this heat is everywhere this summer.

I purposely didn't get into why all these heat records are being broken, and what this means for you and me. That deserves a separate poset, which I will get to in the coming days.  Lots of interesting science and economics associated with this.

Northeast Floods Peak Today, But Will Northern Vermont Miss Out On Rain AGAIN?!?

Parts of Pennsylvania are under a rare high risk area (in purple) for dangerous
flash floods today. Believe it or not, parched Vermont is under
the slight risk zone for flash floods. Torrential local downpours
could cause small areas of flash flooding, despite the dry conditions. 

So far, just some piddling little light showers have come through Vermont's Champlain Valley as of 3 p.m. Wednesday as we remain parched.

Meanwhile, parts of the Northeast are under a rather rare high risk zone for life-threatening flash floods today. 

I'm so wishing for something much milder than flash floods and much more intense than sprinkles, but for me, it remains to be seen whether that will happen.

The real news, of course, is today's flash flood threat, centered in central Pennsylvania and south central New York, down by Binghamton.

In these regions, it has rained and rained and rained this week and soils are saturated. There has already been some pretty serious flooding in this region. As I write this, thunderstorms are increasing again in super soupy air over Pennsylvania, so intense downpours are developing again.

The worst of the rain in Pennsylvania looks like it is, or soon will, fall in an area that has had a foot of rain in the past week.

This will be bad, and I'm sure we'll hear of more flash flooding damage in Pennsylvania and New York.

Already, there's big trouble. The famed Hersheypark in Pennsylvania  is closed today for the second time this week due to flooding. There's not much in the way of flooding inside the park, but the roads leading to it are under water.

The nearby Knoebels Amusement Resort is under water.

The weather pattern that has stalled for the past few days, keeping most of the rain to Vermont's south and west, is on the move again. This is why forecasters are insisting we'll finally get our share of rain later today and tonight.

The chances are still there. Showers and thunderstorms are increasing to our southwest, so we might get into the action. And, what is essentially a very weak cold front is in western New York, and is slowly moving east.

This, you would think, would be the focus of a pretty good band of rain coming through Vermont just ahead of this so-called cold front. Chances of that rain happening this evening are pretty damn good. Forecaster are insisting we will have somewhere around an inch of rain by Thursday noon. I have no reason to doubt them.

In fact, Vermont is under a slight risk zone for flash flooding today and tonight. That might seem strange, given how parched it is out there. But if any particular town or area gets hit by repeated downpours over the course of a few hours, small creeks could become scary, raging torrents. There was already a flood advisory for awhile in far southern Vermont this morning when a heavy batch of rain went through there.

But still. We've been burned before. Several times this summer, the setup seemed to indicate we Green Mountain Boys and Girls would get a good soaking, and instead, we get just some crappy light showers.

It's as if we've turned into this weird humid desert. The air is so sopping wet - you'd think we'd have a downpour any minute, but then nothing happens.

No doubt it has been a hot month here in Vermont, which has exacerbated the dry condition we're experiencing. Depending upon how the last few days of the month go, we could set a record in Burlington, Vermont for the hottest month on record, which would surely be a big milestone.

Burlington, Vermont has recorded 10 days so far this month with temperatures of 90 degrees or above. We're tied with 1999 for the second most number of 90s in the month of July. The most 90s in July came in the notoriously hot summer of 1949, when there 11 such days.

Of course, we still have a few days to go in July in which the temperature could get to 90 degrees again. No such days are in the immediate future.

But......

After a break this weekend the weather pattern looks like it's going to turn once again to the one we've had this week. That means the Bermuda High will once again strengthen, pushing all the way up towards eastern New England and southeastern Canada.

Meanwhile, another dip in the jet stream will probably form to our west.

This would put us in the hot, tropical air again. I'm guessing the flood plagued Northeast (except Vermont!) would be in for more dangerous flooding, since the ground is so wet and the air will be so humid next week.

The vague bright side, of course, is despite the terrible heat and humidity we're all sick of here in Vermont, there will at least be a chance of more showers and thunderstorms next week. Even if we do get that inch of rain tonight, we'll still need more precipitation.

Cool Video Of Skinny But Intense Little Tornado In Indiana

In this screen grab, you can see the skinny white tornado
to the left, between the brick house and the white truck

Some of the tornadoes that ripped through parts of the Midwest last week hit in Indiana.

One tornado in particular, near Corydon, Indian was especially interesting

It was the skinniest little thing. If your arms were outstretched, they would almost stretch from one side of the tornado to the other.

The tornado later widen and intensified, becoming an EF-1 strength storm that damaged homes and buildings in nearby New Middletown.

A home security camera captured the drama, then after that, there's an even better video in the same neighborhood as a guy captured the tornado dancing past his house. :



Here's the even better video. Quite wild!

Dangerous "Atmospheric River" To Cause Mid-Atlantic, Northeast Flooding

Three to seven inches of rain, and locally higher amounts, are
likely, especially in the red areas of this map during the next seven days.

An atmospheric river is set to dump tremendous amounts of rain on a broad strip running north and  northwestward off the Atlantic Ocean through areas around North Carolina and Virginia, northward through Pennsylvania and central New York. 

That means these areas need to be really, really on guard for serious flooding over the next few days.

First, we need to define for us all what an atmospheric river is. I'll let NOAA do it:

"Atmospheric rivers are relatively long, narrow regions in the atmosphere - like rivers in the sky - that transport most of the water vapor outside the tropics. These columns of vapor move with the weather, carrying an amount of water vapor roughly equivalent to the average flow of water at the mouth of the Mississippi River.

When the atmospheric rivers make landfall, they often release this water vapor in the form of rain or snow."

The problem is, atmospheric rivers often release extreme amounts of rain, causing extreme floods.

Atmospheric rivers are to blame for extreme floods around Nashville, Tennessee in 2010; and another extreme, deadly flood around South Carolina in October, 2015 that dumped up to two feet of rain in that state.

Not all atmospheric rivers are bad. They're common in California in the winter, and help replenish reservoirs and add to the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada mountains. Melting snow in the summer then keeps reservoirs and drinking water supplies at reasonable levels.

Like anything in weather, atmospheric rivers vary in intensity. Some aren't too tough to take, dropping a few inches of rain on a drought-stricken area, for example.

But often, they are terrible. And they can unload their tremendous rainfall well inland from wherer they come ashore -- like in the 2010 Tennessee flood I just mentioned.

The atmospheric river slated to hit parts of the East Coast this week is being created by a really wonky weather pattern now in place.

Usually this time of year, the jet stream, which controls the paths of storms and fair weather systems, sputters in a general west to east course near the United States/Canada border. In July, there's rarely much in the way of big southward dips or huge northward bulges in the jet stream.

There's an exception going on now and the weather pattern is really off the rails.  There's a big dip in the jet stream centered over the Great Lakes. This dip is causing unusually chilly weather for this time of year near the Great Lakes, and strangely severe storms in the South. Those storms created hail as big as tennis balls in Georgia and some other southern states.

Meanwhile, the Bermuda high is pushing a big heat ridge northward in the western Atlantic Ocean. Part of the Bermuda High has pushed as far north as Nova Scotia.

This is setting up the atmospheric river flowing northward from the tropics between the big Bermuda High to the east and the dip in the jet stream to the west.

This pattern is kind of stuck until later Thursday and Friday, when things will start moving. So the heavy rains will keep going over the same places from North Carolina  to New York through then. This could extend into southwestern Quebec as well.  Remember, this is tropical moisture, so any showers and thunderstorms can create one to two inch per hour rainfall rates.

This can cause life-threatening flash flooding. There was already destructive flooding and water rescues in Pennsylvania this morning.  That flooding will likely worsen this afternoon in parts of Maryland, Pennsylvania and the southern tier of New York.

We here in Vermont are on the eastern edge of this atmospheric river pattern. That means we are subject to the torrential downpours, but not the constant fire hose of rain. I noticed during a batch of rain that moved northward through Vermont this morning, an inch of rain fell on Rutland in just an hour.

We desperately need the rain here in Vermont, so precipitation this week is a good thing. We still have to watch out, especially Wednesday night and Thursday, when the axis of heaviest rain will probably shift to near or over the Green Mountain State.

Despite the dry conditions, an excessive downpour, or a series of downpours going repeatedly over the same spot, can cause dangerous flash flooding. It's impossible at this point to determine if, or even whether Vermont will see any flash flooding from this system.

The National Weather Service is eyeing the possibility of that happening, so stay tuned.

Texas Weather Hazard: Heat Causes Tortilla Chip Fires

Austin, Texas firefighters battling a tortilla chip fire at a factory. A
heat wave set off the fires

Texas is certainly a hotbed of weather risks.

It's a land of epic floods, like Hurricane Harvey last year. It's a place the experiences horrible droughts. Dust storms. Destructive tornadoes. Hail the size of canned hams, as David Letterman would put it. 

And big heat waves. Not to mention tortilla chip fires. Wait, what?

It was so hot in Austin, Texas this past week that firefighters there dealt with a rash of tortilla chip waste fires.

According to CNN, a tortilla chip factory there was testing a new way to get rid of chip waste from the manufacturing process.  Says CNN:

"The company crushed the chips into a fine, powder like substance and put the powder into boxes that soaked up oil, Austin Fire Department division chief Palm Buck told CNN.

When the weather heated up, the chip dust heated up too -- and burst into flames. 'Certainly, tortilla chips was a new thing for us,' Buck said."

It definitely has been hot in Austin. Each of the past five days have been over 100 degrees, with a high temperature of 104 degrees reported Thursday and Friday. These are record high temperatures for the region.

Luckily, the boxes were stored outside the factory building, so the company can still keep cranking out tortilla chips in their undamaged building.

When firefighters arrived to put out the fires, new blazes kept breaking out in the boxes of tortilla chip powder. Firefighters were called to the scene three times last week, and stayed overnight one night to monitor the chip dust boxes. Finally, the fire department submerged the waste in water to prevent more fires.

Which is a good thing. The forecast for Austin calls for 100 degree temperatures through next Saturday, with a high of 107 degrees predicted for Monday.

No, The Tragic Missouri Duck Boat Storm Did NOT "Come Out Of Nowhere"

Duck boat sinking in a severe Missouri thunderstorm on
Thursday, killing 17 people.

Investigations are just starting on what led to the disaster near Branson, Missouri in which a duck boat sank in a severe thunderstorm, killing 17 people.

But there has been one very, very nagging question.  What was that rickety thing doing out there in such a bad storm?

Ripley Entertainment, owns Ride the Ducks company in Branson. Jim Pattison Jr, president of Ripley, told CBS News he'd been told that it was "an almost micro storm event.....It was a fast-moving storm that basically came out of nowhere...The storm was moving at a higher rate of speed than expected."

Sorry, Jim. I think what you're doing is trying to create a new reality to possibly influence a jury during the inevitable lawsuits that will come out of this tragedy. Meteorologists will talk about what really happened during the litigation, but I have to wonder if Pattison was trying to plant a seed of doubt into whoever will make rulings and decisions in the likely lawsuits.

Pattison did say that given the conditions, the boat should not have been in the water.

Still, as many in the media reported: No, the severe thunderstorm did NOT "come out of nowhere." It was moving fast, but meteorologists were tracking it and had a good handle on the timing of when it would hit. It was not a "micro storm." It was a pretty big and nasty thunderstorm complex.

Also, as the Kansas City Star reported, there were lots of warnings about the oncoming storm rushing in from the northwest.

A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted as of 11:30 a.m. Thursday, more than seven hours before the storm hit. A watch means keep an eye to the sky, as there's a good possibility of severe thunderstorms somewhere in the area. That means think twice about launching rickety duck boats, folks.

The complex of storms formed in Kansas, and reports of wind damage began coming in from eastern Kansas more than nine hours before the storm hit Table Rock Lake. National Weather Service meterologists closely tracked this thunderstorm complext during its entire lifespan.

Roughly an hour before the storms hit the Branson area, Springfield, Missouri, to the north, reported a wind gust of 74 mph.

The National Weather Service office in Springfield, Missouri issued a severe thunderstorm warning at 6:32 p.m for an area including Branson and Table Rock Lake, where the duck boat was.
The warning mentioned likely wind gusts in the 70 mph range were on their way.

It's still unclear exactly what time the duck boat departed from shore. It was scheduled to leave at around 5:30 p.m., according to a Weather Channel time line, but might have left as late as 6:45 p.m., says the Kansas City Star.

A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for an area just northwest of, but not including Table Rock Lake at 5:45 p.m., according to the Weather Channel time line.

Even if the duck boat left shore before the severe thunderstorm warning was issued, the operators should have known bad storms were looming to the north and northwest, Reports say the duck boat left the dock for the lake excursion as late as  around 6:45 p.m. Was anybody watching the weather? The sky? Did anyone associated with Ride the Ducks review weather radar or check for storm warnings?

They should have, that's for sure.  A lot of attention went to a tweet and Forbes article from Marshall Shepherd, the Director of the Atmospheric Sciences Program at the University of Georgia that stated what should have been the obvious:

"It is 2018, not 1901. The meteorological community has advanced weather satellites, weather radar and models. Storms like this do not 'come out of nowhere.'"

Shepherd, ever the polite, competent scientist, isn't nearly as nasty and rude as I am, but his Forbes article should be required reading for anyone planning on doing anything outside. At any time.

Shepherd also highlighted guidance developed by NOAA and the National Safe Boating Council. The guidance, again,  should be obvious to everyone, including people who conduct duck boat tours:

"Before going boating, fishing, diving or enjoying other water sports, check the forecast from weather.gov or your favorite weather source...If severe weather is predicted, stay home or go earlier than normal. Be prepared to head to shore quickly."

The guidance says you should have a NOAA weather radio with you which would sent immediate alerts if a storm warning is issued.

Shepherd, a former president of the American Meteorological Society, also highlighted a report from that organization in his Forbes article that basically says organizers of outdoor events and attractions don't really have an excuse when bad weather causes tragedies. Although the AMS puts it in much more sober terms than I am doing. Members of the AMS are a bunch of serious scientists, after all.

According to the AMS report:

"A common theme in the after-action reports and service assessments for these disasters is that the weather plan was inadequate to deal with a comprehensive portfolio of weather risk, or a weather plan didn't exist. In many instances, organizers simply 'hoped that we wouldn't get hit.'

Reducing the weather risk to life and property at venues and public gatherings is a priority for the weather enterprise and the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Knowledge of, and investment in, pre-event planning and mitigation serves the nation economically as well as socially."

In other words, my admittedly blunt, sarcastic words, careless event organizers really need to pay attention to weather hazards and stop killing people because they don't. It's not all about making money, you know.

Not all the facts are out yet in the Missouri Duck Boat tragedy, so it's hard to draw exact conclusions as to who is at fault and to what extent. But I believe there was a big time screwup, with awful results.

This is especially true given the vessel: Duck boats need calm water, and the canopies overhead tend to trap people when the vessels sink. That's probably what happened in Missouri.

The lesson learned: Always be cognizant of the weather if you're organizing an outdoor event. And if you plan on going to an outdoor concert, a duck boat excursion or anything else outside, bring along a weather radio. Adjust your plans if there are weather alerts.

And if your gut tells you the weather is too iffy to do what you planned to do, definitely trust your gut.  

Developing Odd Weather Pattern Creates Tragedy In Midwest

Tornado destruction in Marshalltown, Iowa Thursday. 

A key ingredient to an odd weather pattern that seems destined to bring flooding rains to the East Coast has already caused tragedy and destruction in the Midwest.

An unusually sharp trough of low pressure for this time of year touched off tornadoes and severe storms, especially in Iowa and Missouri.

As you probably saw on the news already, one of the severe storms swamped a so-called tourist "duck boat" on a Missouri resort lake, killing at least 11 people. Five are still missing.

A severe thunderstorm warning was issued about a half hour before the boat sank. Winds in the area gusted to 63 mph.

In Iowa, a swarm of tornadoes caused extensive damage, especially in and around the towns of Marshalltown and Pella. Ten people were injured in Marshalltown, which had widespread, extensive damage to homes and businesses. Video showed the tornado ripping the steeple off an iconic courthouse there.

Two tornadoes spin simultaneously near each
other in Iowa Thursday.

Seven people were injured in Pella.

Parts of South Dakota were swamped by heavy rain and flash flooding. More than eight inches of rain fell in Brookings in just a few hours.

Some videos are at the bottom of this post.

This storm will bring a threat of more tornadoes and severe thunderstorms today, especially in an area including Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee and northern Alabama.

A map of the risk area resembles something you'd see in during the spring tornado season, not July, when severe storms are usually more isolated and sporadic.

The trough to the west will inspire what will amount to be a way out of season nor'easter Sunday, which will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the Northeast.

Even here in Vermont, they're talking about fairly strong downslope winds on the west slopes of the Green Mountains, something that's common in winter, but almost unheard of in July.

The low pressure to the west, and the Bermuda High strengthening to the east will result in a stalled weather pattern over the East most of next week. This pattern is still expected to bring boatloads of tropical moisture through the East with the risk of flooding rains.

It's still too soon to say which areas are most at risk for flooding.

Here's a video of the duck boat in Missouri being swamped by the severe storm as onlookers in a restaurant look on with increasing worry and horror:



A compilation of tornadoes destroying houses in Iowa:



Two simultaneous tornadoes near and in Bondurant, Iowa:



Tornado wrecking a courthouse in Marshalltown, Iowa:

A Very Wet Week On East Coast Next Week?

This precipitation forecast map shows widespread precipitation
amounts of over three inches (in red) over the next seven days. 

Forecasters are becoming increasingly confident that it will be a very wet week along the East Coast next week.

That raises the possibility of flash flooding in a few areas, due to the type of heavy rain that seems likely.

This won't be a steady, moderate rain that soaks things down but doesn't cause many problems with high water.

Instead, this will largely take the form of spotty, very torrential downpours, the kind that put city streets under water instantaneously - kind of like what Worcester, Massachusetts and other cities endured during thunderstorms Monday.

This is also the kind of rain that will send gigantic gushes of water down hillsides and mountainsides.

The set-up will be a strong Bermuda High sending thick moisture northward up the East Coast. A trough of low pressure will be somewhere near the eastern Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. It will be in the form of a fairly sharp dip in the jet stream for this time of year.

This setup favors very humid air over the East with lots of potential for torrential downpours. The dip in the jet stream means disturbances will try to enter this humid air and set off these intense downpours.

It's impossible this far out to determine exactly where the heaviest rain will fall, when it will fall and for how long. Let's just say there's a potential for torrential downpours at any time, anywhere in much of the East Sunday through at least Thursday.

Up here in Vermont, I know we've heard this song before. The weather pattern looks promising for some good rains to ease the worsening dryness out there, and then we don't receive much rain at all.

The good news with this is we will be under threat of weather disturbances that would trigger showers and thunderstorms for a long time, not just part of a day like we've had all summer. So we'll have several chances at receiving some healthy rains.

The storms will be hit and miss, but if the hit and miss variety lingers over us for days as expected, the chances of being hit go up.

Because it will be very, very humid here in Vermont, too, this isn't exactly the type of rain we need. It'll often come in short, sharp downpours, instead of a slow, steady drizzle. Although everything around us is dry, if you get a two inch dump of rain in an hour, a flash flood can still result in urban areas and near small mountain streams and creeks.

We'll have to watch out for that next week. Especially if you go up in the mountains to camp and hike.

Between now and Saturday, it will remain super sunny and dry. We're starting off cool, with a record low of 35 degrees this morning in Saranac Lake, New York. A record low of 44 degrees was tied at Montpelier, Vermont.

As I write this at 8 a.m. Thursday, it is warming up very quickly and most of us will hit the low 80s by this afternoon.

Friday looks hot and dry, with highs well into the 80s, with a couple spot 90s in the warmest valleys. Humidity will remain quite low on Friday, so it won't be too bad.

Humidity will begin to increase Saturday through Sunday, and by Monday, the humidity will be awful. It'll stay awful all week amid the expected showers and storms. Daytime temperatures next week will be in generally in the low 80s, which is close to normal. But again, the humidity will make it feel worse.

I also hope you slept well in the cool air last night. Because next week we'll have a long streak of terribly oppressive, muggy nights to deal with.

It's summer, after all.

Cheated Out Of The Rain Again. Southern New England Stole It

A motorist taken an ill-advised drive down a flooded Worcester, Mass
street yesterday. Lots of cars got stuck in high water from New
Hampshire to Virginia. Not much needed rain further north, though.
Photo by Ashley Green/Worsceter Telegram

That was a disappointment.

I'm referring to yesterday, which had promised to be quite a wet one as a soggy cold front was set to come through.

We desperately needed the rain here in Vermont, and the downpours would have been welcome.

Well, pfft!

A broken, skinny line of showers and storms did come through, but most of us in central and northern Vermont got very little rain.

Burlington got a whopping 0.01 inches of precipitation. So the dry, dry conditions go on.

The cold front did usher in cooler, drier air. The key is dry air. It'll be nearly wall to wall sunshine today through Friday, maybe into Saturday. The humidity will be low during this period, and it will turn increasingly warm through the period. By Friday and Saturday, many of us will be in the upper 80s.

Which means the dryness out there will only get drier. At least we'll have great beach weather, as I guess there's still some water left in lakes and swimming holes.

Lots of street flooding in Worcester, Massachusetts yesterday.
Photo by Scott Croteau, MassLive.com

Central and southern New England got all the rain. A band of torrential thunderstorms set up in that region starting late Tuesday morning and continuing much of the day.

An area from far southern Vermont and central and southern New Hampshire south to Connecticut, Rhode Island and on down the coast all the way to Washington DC.

Flash flood and severe thunderstorm warnings blared all day in this zone, and there were many, many reports of street flooding, power outages and fallen trees.

Boston received 2.68 inches of rain. Hartford, Connecticut received 2.14 in hes, and Worcester had 2.67 inches. Water as deep as three feet flowed through the streets of Worcester.

A funnel cloud was spotted over Brooklyn and New York harbor, but there's no sign that it touched down. Subways flooded in New York City and Washington. Streets were submerged from New Hampshire to Virginia.

CNN reported 3,700 flight delays and more than 2,100 cancellations.

Flood videos are at the bottom of this post.

Funnel cloud over New York harbor Tuesday. It doesn't look like
it touched down. 

So yeah, it would have been wonderful if things had evened out: I would have proposed southern New England get half the rain they received taken away, and have it dumped on northern New England instead. But it was not to be.

Forecasters are still saying we're in for an extended period of unsettled, possibly wet weather here in Vermont Sunday through Tuesday. It will turn moist and humid during that period, and a dip in the jet stream just to our west would encourage weather disturbances.

I'm still afraid this will only lead to hit and miss, brief showers and storms, and not a decent soaking rain. Maybe there will be lots of showers and storms, which would be terrific. I'll believe it when I see it.

Meanwhile, I'll stay in my gardens, constantly watering, and hoping my well holds out through this.

Here's a video of street flooding in Worcester, Mass. Lots of people did not "Turn Around, Don't Drown. Nobody drowned, but a lot of peoples' cars did:




Here's FDR Drive in Manhattan. Or is it FDR River?




Here's that funnel cloud over New York harbor:

Record Highs Again, And Cheated Out Of Rain Again?

There's a slight risk of flash flooding today in southern New England
(in yellow) with a marginal risk in green. Less rain will
fall in northwestern New England, where precipitation is really needed.

It was raining hard enough in far southern Vermont this morning to prompt flood advisories for an expected one to three inches of rain in a short period of time.

The flooding, if any, was expected to be minor, and the rain was needed.

Up here in northwestern Vermont, it was beginning to look like we would be cheated out of a soaking rain again. Sure, it was raining some early this morning, but it's looking less and less likely it will amount to a  whole lot today.

After a batch of light rain goes through by 8 or 9 a.m., there's not much upstream on the radar heading this way.

Still, there is the risk of rain through the day, as more showers and storms could develop before the cold front comes through. But we are just not getting as deep a rinsing as I'd hoped.

The southeastern half of Vermont, and the eastern half of New England in general today have the highest chances of decent downpours, and maybe some local flash flooding and a risk of a few severe thunderstorm.  More rounds of storms are almost a certainty today in southern Vermont

Here in northwestern Vermont, we're also recovering from a record hot day that was a bad combination for dryness. Yes, we had the record heat, but we also had the almost wall to wall sunshine, and most importantly, it wasn't humid at all, at least until last night after sunset.

Slight risk of severe storms today in much of New England
(yellow shaded area) Less of a chance to the west.

The dry air and the heat really combined to evaporate a lot of water out of the soil and such. It just made things worse.  A dusty day indeed in the garden!

Burlington's record high yesterday was 96 degrees, besting the previous high for the date of 94, set in 1969.

Burlington has now had nine days this summer with temperatures at or over 90 degrees. That's nowhere near any kind of record, by the way.


The National Weather Service office in South Burlington tells us the year with the most 90 degree readings was 1949, with 26 such days.

That must have been a brutal summer!

There are probably no more 90 degree days on the immediate horizon, though with forecast highs in the mid to upper 80s on Friday and Saturday, it could be close. And who knows what will happen as we get into the end of July and August?

The next chance of any rain after today will come along Sunday or more likely Monday.

Hot Again, Then Wetter Times Ahead For Vermont, Northeast?

Lots of blue sky on the Burlington, Vermont waterfront on Sunday.
The second half of July might, maybe turn wetter.

Another scorcher is coming today. If it hits 90 degrees or more in Burlington, Vermont which is very likely, half of the days so far in July would have reached 90 degrees, so yeah, it's been a hot month so far.

And as previously noted, dry. But an upcoming subtle shift in the weather pattern might - maybe - lead to a wetter second half of the month. That's not cast in stone, but there's a few promising signs that could happen.

First off, Tuesday's cold front looks to be a wet one. Like any summertime cold front, there will be winners and losers, with some places getting absolutely drenched and others barely dampened.

But at least this one has lots of moisture to work with, and the atmosphere is primed to dump some good downpours.  Most of us will probably get some decent rainfall out of this.

It will turn dry again for most of the rest of the week after tomorrow, but meanwhile, that change in the weather pattern will keep developing.

Strong high pressure - the Bermuda High, basically - will build northward and stay strong over the western Atlantic Ocean. Meanwhile, a slight dip in the jet stream seems like it wants to develop somewhere over or near the Great Lakes for much of the second half of the month.

This dip would encourage storms, weather disturbances and cold fronts to come through the Great Lakes region and start heading east toward us. But then, these cold fronts and such would run into that strong Bermuda High off the coast.

Until now this summer, either a heat dome over us would prevent cold fronts from coming in, or the fronts would zip through so quickly they generally wouldn't have time to pour much rain on us.

But with the possibility of the cold fronts bumping up against that offshore, strong high pressure, these disturbances might tend to slow down or stall over or near the Northeast. Also, southerly flow on the western flank of this high would bring moisture northward into New England to feed water to these sluggish cold fronts.

The first of these possible wet spells looks like it might come in next Sunday or Monday.

There's no guarantee the weather will play out exactly like I'm telling you, but it does look like rainy spells are somewhat more likely during the second half of July. That would ruin some days at the beach, but hey, we really, really need the rain.

Although it will probably often be humid, the clouds and showers might also serve to keep temperatures out of the 90s Again, that's uncertain, but that's what the tea leaves are reading now.

English Drought Is Revealing Ancient Sites, Settlements

The narrow straight, green line in this recent aerial photo from Great
Britain is from an old Roman temporary camp. The more curvy green
lines are ancient natural waterways that no longer exist. 

It's been a strangely hot, dry summer in what is usually damp old England.

Droughts are bad news, of course, because of the crop failures, water shortages and other problems such dry weather creates.

One good thing to come out of the British drought is the discovery of archaeological sites.

The dry weather has turned farm fields across Great Britain brown. However, people flying over these rural areas can see patterns of green -- lines, circles, etc amid all the brown stubble.

These green lines are often ancient ditches, moats, culverts and drainage ditches. The soil stays moist in these former features, so the plants over them stay green as everything else around them dries out.

The green cirtcles in this drought-stricken British farm field are
ancient burial sites, probably from the Iron Age  

The BBC says the recent dry weather has unveiled lots of new finds, including Iron Age structures and a temporary Roman camp in southern Scotland.

The patterns in the drought-stricken landscape do take detective work.

Are the straight lines of green the remnants of a drainage ditch that was created five years ago and subsequently covered up? Or were these ditches created hundreds or even thousands of years ago? Archeologists are trained to sniff out such differences.  

Archeologists are continuing to fly over the countryside looking for more ancient patterns, but they'd better hurry. It will rain soon, and the fields will turn fully green again, once again hiding these ancient artifacts.

Rain was already moving into western Great Britain as of Sunday.

Drought Starting To Take Hold In Vermont, Northeast

There was a light spattering of rain drops coming down in St. Albans, Vermont early this morning when I took the dogs out.

U.S. Drought Monitor sows moderate drought
in orange areas of the map and abnormally dry
conditions in yellow areas.

I'll take anything for rain at this point. The showers today aren't amounting to all that much, but at least it's something. It's getting drought-y out there.

The U.S. Drought Monitor depicts moderate drought now across central and southern Vermont, parts of northern New York, the southern half of New Hampshire and southwest Maine. Most of the rest of the region is described by the Drought Monitor as "abnormally dry."

So far, this isn't nearly as bad as it got during the summer and early autumn of 2016, but it's something to keep an eye on if the weather pattern doesn't change soon.

There's already one forest fire burning near Altona, New York that has so far charred about 320 acres, WCAX reports. (The fire was one major reason there was a smoky haze in the Champlain Valley Friday.)

Elsewhere, the forest fire danger in the region is at least moderate, and people are beginning to worry about their wells. Dry, brown lawns are now the norm across the area.

I'm luckier than most. It's dry in my neck of the woods in far northwestern Vermont, but a thunderstorm with a drenching downpour helped out some back on Tuesday. Other storms were scattered around the state on that day, but it was hit and miss. What we need is a statewide, regionwide drencher.

There is some hope in that regard on the horizon. Today's rain will amount to two-tenths of an inch or rain or less for most of us. So no biggy.  A very small percentage of us might be blessed with a brief downpour if any thunderstorms get going this afternoon. An even small percentage of us might get a quick thundershower Sunday afternoon.

Forest fire near Altona, in northern New York. Photo from
Beekmantown Fire Dept via WCAX

But after an oppressively hot Monday, we're looking at a shot of decent rain for Tuesday. At least that's what the thinking is now. We might end up being robbed, but Tuesday looks like it wants to feature a cold front making its way through the region.

It seems like the front has a lot of moisture to work with, so it might rain pretty hard at times when the front approaches and comes through.

After that, it appears we might go back to "how dry I am" for the remainder of next week.

Another Hodgepodge Of Interesting Stuff Today

Not much left of this South Dakota ranch after a tornado earlier this month
A 10,000 pound tractor disappeared in the tornado and the
wreckage was later found in neighboring Montana.

It's a relatively quiet day in the weather department, so it's a good day to show a few fun and/or interesting tidbits I've accumulated over the past couple of weeks.

TORNADO STEALS TRACTOR

Near the beginning of the month a powerful tornado crossed the border between Montana and South Dakota. It's a remote part of the country, and there wasn't that much out there for the tornado to hit.

Except for Doug Davis' farm, which is in South Dakota but just 100 feet or so from the Montana border, was pretty much trashed by the tornado. For days afterward, he could not find a 10,000 pound tractor that was on his property. The tornado sucked it up and took it....somewhere.

That had to be a pretty damn strong tornado to do that.

Eventually, the wreckage of the tractor was found back across the border in Montana, having been drawn back there by the tornado's powerful circulation.

At last report, Davis was still missing an ATV, a boat and a camper, which all disappeared in the twister. Unfortunately, his home was also destroyed.

ICEBERG TSUNAMI THREAT?

Here's an unusual weather hazard. An iceberg has come very close to shore near a tiny village in Greenland. Parts of the village have been evacuated, because if a big chunk of the iceberg splits off, it could crash into the water and send a tsunami slamming into the village, says Reuters.

This iceberg is menacing a Greenland village
Photo by Ritzau Scanpix/Karl Petersen via Reuters  

DUST STORMS AND FLASH FLOODS

In the desert Southwest, it's monsoon season. Moisture coming in from the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean often create some dramatic weather in places like Arizona, Utah and the deserts of California.

This year is no exception. A massive haboob earlier this week roared across an area of Arizona near Gila Bend.

A lot of storm chasers captured it on film, including Reed Timmer, who always manages to be on the scene of the most extreme weather in the nation.

Haboobs form when strong downdrafts from monsoon thunderstorms form big gust fronts, which stir up walls of dust that blow across the desert. The one that Timmer and others captured was bigger than most.

Here's one of Timmers'  videos of the haboob, some of it in time lapse motion that's really cool:



The monsoon storms very often cause flash floods in what are usually dry washes. Here's a recent one in Utah captured by David Rankin:



WET HOTEL STAY

A couple weeks back, there was some serious flash flooding in and around Des Moines, Iowa. The following video shows how (badly) a hotel fared during the flooding:

Worst Japanese Flood In Decades Kills 200, More Missing

Massive flooding in Japan this week. Photo via STR/AFP Getty Images

I've been watching the flooding in Japan this week, and decided it really needs a post, as it is certainly one of the worst weather disasters to hit the world this year, if not the worst.

At least 200 people died, and many more are missing after incredible rains last week in western Japan. The rain has mostly stopped and water is receding, but the immense damage is done.

According to a Category 6 blog post by Bob Henson, the came when a relatively weak typhoon passed just to the west of Japan. This set up a very wet flow of super moist air coming into western Japan. Then a weather front stalled over the region, unleashing the heavy rains.

And boy, were they heavy. A weather station in Sukomo reported 4.25 inches of rain in just an hour, and 10.35 inches in three hours. Some areas received a storm total of more than 20 inches of rain.

The obvious result was widespread flash flooding and many, many mudslides in the hilly region of Japan. At least 4,600 homes were destroyed and millions evacuated.

Even though the water is draining away now, damaged roads and rail lines are preventing supplies from getting into some of the hardest hit areas.

One resident said:  The floodwaters were up o"ver my house, probably reaching 4 or 5 meters (13 to 16 feet) up past the roof all the way to the TV antenna."

This must have reminded people of Japan's worst modern disaster, the epic earthquake and massive tsunami of March, 2011.

Cleanup and recovery now is being hampered by oppressive heat and humidity. It's the 90s in the hardest hit areas with dewpoints in the 70s. Much like during the heat wave we had here in Vermont a week or two back.

Here are a couple videos of the flooding:




Not sure about the guy in the upper right hand corner watching the video with the rest of us, but, w
whatever