Ice Storms That Aren't Destructive Are Actually Pretty Cool

Icy berries in my St. Albans, Vermont yard on Sunday.

Now that we know the northwestern Vermont ice storm of 2020 was not as bad as feared, we can actually enjoy the beauty and oddities that freezing rain brings.

Oh sure, some people lost power for a little while, a few people have damaged trees, and the roads weren't all that great in the immediate aftermath of the ice.

But given we avoided wholesale destruction (at least in Vermont) of the Great Ice Storm of 1998, it was good to go out and actually enjoy the ice-altered scenery.

Since temperatures will probably stay below freezing, probably until Tuesday, and there should be a little sunshine here and there to light up the ice, there will probably be more photogenic moments with the ice still covering everything.

An icy bramch in my St. Albans, Vermont yard on Sunday.

Some of the photos that I took for this post are pretty. Some just journalistically document what the ice did.

Either way, it was still good to get out and examine what icy artistry Mother Nature gave us.  When you see this post, definitely respond with your own photos of what you saw in the ice. I'd love to see it.

I"m not a big fan of winter. It's my fourth favorite season, to be honest. Plus, most of Vermont missed out on the ice, so the great majority of Vermonters missed out on the beauty of the ice. But that's OK, there will be other days, with snow, with sun, with ice, with frost, that will highlight Vermont's beauty

Just be ready with your cameras, folks!

Scroll down and click on all the photos in this photos in this post to make the bigger and easier to see.

Birch trees bend under the weight of ice  left by this weekend's
freezing rain in Alburgh, Vermont. 

Ice laden birch trees sag under the weight of ice Sunday in
Alburgh, Vermont, blocking this driveway. 

A jumble of branches and ice on this St. Albans, Vermont shrub.

A tree sags under the ice in Alburgh, Vermont Sunday, while in a background
you can see part of another tree snapped off because of the
weight of the ice. 

An appropriately named street in Alburgh, Vermont Sunday.

An icy white pine branch in St. Albans, Vermont Sunday. 

Nasty Weather, But Lucking Out So Far In Northwest Vermont

An icy pine bough on my St. Albans, Vermont property this morning.
Ice is much less thick than expected and I'm happy to see that
so far, there's no storm damage at or near my home. 

If I am wrong about something, this is the way I want to be wrong. At least wrong so far.

It turns out, so far at least as of 6:30 a.m. , the freezing rain in northwest Vermont and northern New York is indeed bad, but not as bad as forecasts as recently as Saturday night said it would.

ICE SO FAR

Ice was definitely accumulating on the trees outside my St. Albans home as of 6:30 a.m., but so far at least, damage is very minor.

Power outages are not widespread yet in Vermont, with only scattered localized problems reported. Vermont Outage Map as of 8 a.m. had about 500 homes and businesses in Vermont without power, but that number has slowly been creeping up early this morning.

Most of the 30,000 or so outages in New York State as of 6 a.m. were in far western New York, where wind, not ice is the main problem.

We're not totally out of the woods yet, because many areas of northern New York and northern Vermont have a couple or few more hours of freezing rain to go.  That will further weigh down trees and power lines that are already starting to sag, so we should still anticipate some problems as the morning and early afternoon wear on.

Winds have started to increase as of 8 a.m. and will continue to do so.  That means some ice laden trees or branches might break, increasing the risk of power failures. But it still won't be as bad as we feared yesterday.

Ice is many areas is getting close to the point where it can start causing damage. Ice was  0.30 in hes thick in Clinton, New York; 0.22 inches thick in Plattsburgh, New York as of 6 a.m. and  0.17 inches thick in Burlington, Vermont.  At 0.25 inches,you start to see minor damage, and damage becomes pretty widespread at 0.5 inches.

At my place in St. Albans, I was relieved to see ice only 0.15 inches thick on trees so far as of 7:30 a.m. Even if we get a little more ice, I don't anticipate much damage around my property. The worries I had for my trees before the storm yesterday turned out to be unnecessary.

Of course as conditions change this morning, I'll update this post, or put up additional breaking storm news.

Still, it looks like ice accumulations for most people in the ice storm zone have a good chance of turning out to be less than expected.  The less ice the better, obviously.

Small differences in temperature made big differences as to what is happening out there. Saturday evening, temperatures crashed rapidly from the 50s to the 30s just as expected. But then, temperatures held just above freezing for a longer time period  than anticipated. That delayed the onset of the freezing rain.

For instance, Plattsburgh, New York didn't touch 32 degrees until around 1 a.m. this morning.  That was a good three or more hours later than expected. Which meant Plattsburgh "missed out" on three hours of freezing rain. I'm sure few people are disappointed by that.

The amount of precipitation was well forecast.  As of 7 a.m. Plattsburgh had collected about 1.5 inches of rain and melted ice, which is exactly in line with forecasts.

Outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont, temperatures have hovered around 31 or 32 since after midnight. It's not that far below freezing, so things don't turn to ice quickly.  As of 6 a.m., I was having a freezing rain downpour.   It was coming down so hard that a lot of the water was running off trees and power lines before it could freeze.

It has since tapered off to a freezing sprinkle.

Needless to say, though, the roads are quite icy. Stay off them until the freezing rain stops and crews have a chance to clear them.

Not everybody seems to be escaping the ice. In parts of Ontario, Canada, there is an inch of ice on everything, and there's a LOT of damage as a result.

Maybe people will say this storm was hyped here in Vermont and New York and we were all crying wolf.  But like I said, one or two degrees in temperature has so far made a big difference.

We'll see if things hold up well for the tail end of the storm.

FLOODING, RAIN, ODD TEMPERATURES

Flooding is still a concern as well, especially in northern and central Vermont. The hours of non-freeing rain was already pushing the Mississquoi River to flood stage early this morning. Many smaller creeks and streams are really high.

Other rivers, like the Lamoille, Winooski, Mad and Otter Creek, are still expected to reach flood stage, if they're not already there now.

The temperature contrast in southern Vermont continues to be amazing. At 6 a.m. Rutland was down to 34 degrees but Bennington was still at 62 degrees.  And 62 degrees at dawn anywhere in Vermont in January is something to behold, for sure.

The rain and freezing rain in Vermont this morning will turn to a period of snow in many areas by or during this afternoon, but it won't amount to much. Maybe an inch or so here and there.

The weather will remain active through the upcoming week, but any systems that come through will be weak with only light precipitation.

A more substantial storm seems like it wants to hit around here next weekend, but it's too soon to say what that means for us.

DOWN SOUTH

While we might not have been hit as hard as expected with the storm in Vermont, the anticipated severe weather and tornadoes certainly hit the South. At least eight people died in the storms, and many homes and businesses were destroyed or damaged from  Texas to Georgia.

At least 16 tornadoes touched down in the South since Friday although that number will probably rise as meteorologists inspect damage to determine if heavily hit areas had tornadoes or straight line winds.

A couple videos:

Damage from a violent tornado in Alabama Saturday. Notice how far debris and entire homes have been thrown:



More damage around Bossier City, Louisiana

Forecast Worsens In NW Vermont; Lots Of Damage In South, Midwest

Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see. The Saturday
morning update to expected ice accumulations.Expect some
ice damage in areas shaded in red. Purple areas can expect
a lot of damage and power outages. 

Northern New York and northwestern Vermont are screwed.

These areas now appear all set to receive a damaging ice storm.   By Sunday morning, a lot of homes and businesses will be without power, and a lot of trees and branches will be on the ground in what will likely be the worst ice storm since 1998.  

As of this morning, the National Weather Service in South Burlington had extended the ice storm warnings that were already in effect for northern New York eastward to encompass Grand Isle county and the western half of Franklin County in Vermont.

In northern New York, ice accumulations are expected to be over an inch in spots. That's more than enough to cause severe damage to trees and power lines. In the ice storm warning zone in Vermont, ice is forecast to be a half to three quarters of an inch thick by Sunday morning.  That's also more than enough to cause a lot of damage.

(As noted yesterday, the criteria for an ice storm warning is if a half inch or more of ice from freezing rain is likely to accumulate. If less than a half inch of freezing rain ice will accumulate, the National Weather Service will go with a winter weather advisory.)

The only real reason this won't be as bad as 1998 is because the freezing rain won't last as long. Instead of a three day affair, the freezing rain will all come within a 12 hour period, give or take, tonight and tomorrow morning.

VERY WET AIR

What this storm has in common with 1998 is the extreme availability of moisture for this time of year.

One common way meteorologist use to determine how much moisture is available for a storm is something called Precipitable Water, or PW.  The measurement doesn't necessarily tell you how much precipitation is going to fall, but it goes like this: If there is one inch of PW, then if all the moisture above that location condenses out, they'd get one inch of rain. You never get all of the moisture condensing out of the atmosphere, but PW is still a good guide for expected rainfall.

Precipitable Water in the atmosphere over northern New York and much of northern Vermont will be at or near record highs for January tonight.  That means rain or freezing rain will come down hard, extremely hard for January.

Total rain or melted ice in northern New York with this storm is expected to be around two to three inches. In northern Vermont, slightly less will fall, with totals expected by NWS South Burlington to be in the one to two inch range.

For comparison, total precipitation for the entire month of January is usually between two and 2.5 inches of rain.

FORECAST STILL TRICKY

As we've been describing, this storm is bringing wet and record warm air up the East Coast.  Places from central New England on down through the Middle Atlantic States and maybe points south will have a lot of record highs today and Sunday.  It could get as high as 80 degrees in West Virginia and the upper 60s in southeastern New England.

Meanwhile, just as the heaviest rain is expected to move into northern New York and Vermont that shallow cold front will come down from Quebec.  Warm air will still roar northward above this cold front, so the precipitation will come down as rain and freeze on contact down on the North Country.

Cold air is more dense than warm air and tends to sink toward valley floors, so this cold air will creep southward more easily where it isn't blocked by mountains. That means it will get cold tonight in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys pretty easily

In Vermont, the cold air has got an open shot to get down as far as Rutland, but it remains to be seen how far the chilly air does get.  There will be a sharp temperature contrast in Vermont, with 20 degree temperature differences late tonight and early Sunday with miles of each other.

Sunday morning, it will probably be in the 20s in far northwestern Vermont and near 60 in the southeast corner.

The varying temperatures so close to each other means its hard to determine who will get ice and how much when you get south and east of Franklin County, Vermont.

Burlington is a wild card. It's the most populated area of the state. It's hard to say if there will be enough ice there to cause a fair amount of damage or will the ice be not that bad? It's almost imposssible to tell.

A weather front will sweep west to east across the region Sunday morning and afternoon, mercifully ending the freezing rain as a brief period of snow, with little accumulation.  Gusty winds with and behind the front will probably cause more damage and power outages and ice-laden trees in the north sway and possibly collapse in the breeze

FLOODING WORRIES

Expected precipitation (rain and melted ice) for the upcoming storm
Areas in yellow and orange can expect to at least 1.5 inches of
precipitation, which is an awfully lot for January. 

Notice I mentioned the precipitable water, above. Areas in northern and central New York and northern and central Vermont that don't get a lot of ice will get a lot of rain.

 Flood watches are still up for all of Vermont except near the Canadian border, and the far southern two counties, where it won't rain nearly as hard as further north.

Very mild air today across all of Vermont and tonight in all but northern Vermont will quickly melt what snow we have out there. All this rain will add the runoff with the melting snow will set probably set up some floooding.  

The first problem will be small streams and creeks tonight, which could wash out parts of roads, driveways and culverts.

The water will then flow in to more major rivers. As it stands now,  forecasts call for moderate flooding on parts of the Winooski and Mad Rivers and Otter Creek, with minor flooding elsewhere.

You've heard the terms minor and moderate flooding bandied about, and here's what they mean:

Minor flooding means few, if any buildings will get flooded, and just some roads, fields, parklands and flood plains will go under water.

Moderate flooding means some buildings might start to flood, roads will be closed by flooding and a few spots might have to be evacuated.

SAFETY:

I'll re-up some tips I put out yesterday here in this space:

1. Today is the day to buy batteries, bottled water and other supplies you'll need to get through power outages that could easily last hours, and perhaps a few days in some spots, especially in northern New York. Remember, especially if you have well water, the pump for the water won't work without electricity.

2. Charge your devices today and this evening, too, so they'll have a full charge in case you need them tomorrow. Remember, Vermont's spotty cell service might be even spottier in areas that get freezing rain, as power outages can affect things, too.

3.  Grab some cash from your bank or ATM, and fill up the car's gas tank. If there's power failures, gas pumps won't work, and stores won't be able to process debit or credit card purchases.

4. If you have a generator, please, please make sure the exhaust is at least 15 feet from the house if posssible and pointed away from the house. You don't want to die of carbon monoxide poisoning.

5.  This should go without saying, but stay away from fallen wires, even if they don't seem like they have electricity flowing through them. Stay out from under ice-laden trees, too. You never know if or when they'll collapse.

6. Check on the elderly and ill, and make sure they're warm enough. If not, and if possible, bring them to someplace that IS warm.

7.  This should be another "Duh!" tip, but don't drive through flooded roads.  It doesn't take much water to sweep a car away.  An additional hazard is the water this time of year is cold, making your chances of dying of drowning and/or hyperthermia greater and quicker.

8.  When this is over and you need to drive somewhere get all the ice off all of your car or truck. Ice flying off your vehicle on the highway can hit the car behind you, breaking their windshield or causing them to lose control and create a crash.  Store your vehicle in a garage if you can. If not, and to make things easier, cover as much of your vehicle with a tarp as you can and secure the tarp down so it doesn't blow away.

After the freezing rain ends, carefully remove the tarp and your vehicle should largely be ice-free.

DANGEROUS NATIONAL WEATHER

As expected, there's widespread damage from severe thunderstorms and some tornadoes in the South, a lot of flooding in other spots, and a bunch of freezing rain and ice damage in the Midwest.

So far, there have been reports of three deaths in Lousiana due to either tornadoes or severe storms.

In Logan, Arkansas, a tornado destroyed a house but the family who lived there was not hurt because they were in a storm shelter, the National Weather Service reported. Damage from the severe thunderstorms was reported from Texas to Tennessee.

Severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes were ongoing early this morning from Kentucky to the Gulf Coast.

Alabama and parts of Mississippi and Georgia are under the gun today for severe storms and possible tornadoes.

A huge area encompassing much of Missouri and Illinois and substantial chunks of adjacent Arkansas and Oklahoma were under flood warnings this morning.

The ice storm that will affect northern Vermont tonight and tomorrow has already brought widespread  icing from Oklahoma to the Great Lakes.

Quick Friday Evening Vermont Storm Update

The latest ice forecast map from the National Weather Service in
South Burlington, issued this afternoon. An inch of very damaging
ice is likely in northern New York. In northern Vermont, ice could
get to near a half inch, especially in the far northern Champlain Valley.
This would definitely lead to some damage just not as bad as NY.

As always with big storms, there are a few adjustments and updates to the forecast for our upcoming nasty storm.

The ice looks like it'll be at its worst in far northern New York, where an ice storm warning is now in effect from Saturday evening through early Sunday afternoon.

There, the rain is likely to come down harder than in Vermont, and the subfreezing temperatures might also last a bit longer in that area. Ice accumulation in the ice storm warning area should come out to be about an inch thick.

That's enough to cause really bad damage to trees and power lines.  Long lasting power outages are likely in this area. Southern Quebec and parts of Ontario are in for the same thing, so it will be totally awful there, too.

In northern Vermont, there's a slightly less dire but still serious ice forecast. Closest to the Canadian border, in northern Grand Isle and Franklin counties, ice is now expected to thicken up to between a quarter to a half inch of ice.

That much  ice would still bring down a lot of trees and power lines and cause pretty widespread outages. But on the bright side, it won't be as bad as 1998, and, if the forecast comes true, the tree damage won't be super devastating, just kinda bad.  It probably won't look like the wholesale disaster zone the way the trees did in 1998.  Be prepared for a lot of yard cleanup with this is over, though.

Click on this map and the ice storm map above to make them bigger
and easier to read. More than 2.5 inches of rain and freezing rain
is likely in northwestern New York, which is an incredible amount
for January. Northern Vermont is getting more than
 an inch of precip, which is still a lot for this time of year. 

In Chittenden, Orleans and Essex counties, there's going to be ice accumulation later Saturday night and Sunday morning, but damage should be relatively light, again, if the forecast comes true.

If it turns a little colder than expected or rain is a little heavier than expected, the ice storm effects could be worse than I'm envisioning here.

Needless to say, road conditions wherever there is freezing rain will be atrocious.

Pretty much all of the forecasted icy areas in Vermont are under a winter weather advisory. But I'm going to advise a little extra on this advisory.

Most winter weather advisories in Vermont tend to be taken by the public as no big deal. Just kind of nuisance winter weather. This storm will go beyond nuisance and be a real problem.

The only main reason I can see that there's not a more dire ice storm warning in Vermont is because the criteria for an ice storm warning is that most of the area affected will have at least a half an inch of ice or more.  It doesn't look like northern Vermont will quite reach that criteria, although a few spots, especially the far northern Champlain Valley will probably see around a half of ice or a little more.

Flooding is still a good bet, too.  Forecasts call for minor to as much as moderate flooding along parts of the Winooski and Mad rivers and the Otter Creek.  This won't be as bad as the Halloween storm of 2019, but of course you would be stupid to drive into any flooded road.

Flood watches are up for the northern two thirds of Vermont, except right along the Canadian border where the already mentioned ice will build up.

As you well know, all this is subject to change as more data comes in. I'll update again Saturday morning, and again as needed as the storm progresses.

REST OF THE NATION:

As expected, severe thunderstorms and probably some tornadoes have been bubbling up, mostly in Oklahoma and Texas.  These will continue to expand and intensify overnight.  Tornadoes and very severe thunderstorms are especially dangerous at night. You don't see them coming and people are sleeping and don't get warnings.

An expansive area of freezing rain was beginning to blossom from western Oklahoma all the way up toward the Great Lakes.  If anything, some of that ice storm could be worse than what we're getting

Also, flood watches remain up for a huge area of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and of course, part of our region.

Weird, Wild, Dangerous Storm Gets Under Way Today

 I love these three big trees in my St. Albans, Vermont back yard. I
definitely risk losing them to the oncoming ice storm, unfortunately. 

Up here where I live in Franklin County, Vermont, I'm already mourning the likely loss of some trees I love in my yard.

There's that damn ice storm coming, that's whh.

I already lost a beautiful willow tree to the storm back on November 1.  I have three enormous poplars in the back yard. They're just wonderful. But they don't hold up well in heavy ice accumulations.  So, maybe I'll lose those.

A row of cedar trees has grown up over the years on the south side of the property facing the road. They've helped turned the back yard into a private Eden. Cedars don't hold up in ice, either. So they're gone.  

That's why we can't have nice things, right?

Maybe I'm overstating this. I hope I am. Maybe the trees will be saggy under the ice for a couple days then everything will be fine. I just don't like the risk. I love my trees almost as much as I love my precious two dogs.

Regarding the ic, forecasts have been pretty consistent for days now as to what will happen with this storm. It's still looking like the northern border counties of Vermont and New York will get a ton of ice. Slightly further south, there's a flood risk.

I'll get into the specifics in a minute, but first let's set this storm up.  It is a weird one.

First of all, conditions are very ripe in the South for severe weather because winds veering with height south and east of the storm center. Ahead of the main line of severe thunderstorms with this system, supercells could easily develop. They have the potential to bring strong, long lasting tornadoes to parts of eastern Texas and Oklahoma and parts of Lousiana and Arkansas. Huge hailstones might fall with these, too.

A squall line of severe thunderstorms will also form and zoom eastward today, tonight and tomorrow through the Gulf Coast states.

A low-level jet, which is a current of fast-moving air a couple to a few thousand feet over the Earth's surface, will be going over this region. The low level jet is a product of this strong storm system and is unusually strong, as it's expected to reach speeds of up to 100 mph.

It's so strong people in the Gulf Coast states will probably be able to hear it roaring overhead.

This squall line will be able to grab chunks of this high speed air from a few thousand feet overhead and bring it to the surface. That means there's going to be a lot of wind damage with this. There will probably be widespread gusts of 75 mph or more with some of these storms.

Worse, the air will still be veering with height, so there probably will be some embedded tornadoes with this dangerous squall line.

Luckily, we in New England don't have to worry about this aspect of the storm, although there is a chance of gusty thunderstorms in southern New England Sunday.

The forecasts have been steady as she goes as the storm lifts northeastward later tonight, Saturday and into Sunday. Along the storm path, a broad band of heavy rain has prompted a widespread area of flood watches extending from northeastern Texas, through the Midwest, parts of the Great Lakes and on into central Vermont.

North and west of that line, it appears there will be a nearly equally broad band of damaging freezing rain. It'll extend from Oklahoma and Missouri, up through Illinois, into the Great Lakes and on into Ontario and southern Quebec, and northern New England.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Expected ice amounts in northern areas. I expect there to be somewhat
thicker ice than this. You start to see some damage at a quarter
inch thick. At a half inch, damage starts to get more substantial.

Of course you've noticed by now I've mentioned flood watches and a risk of damaging ice in Vermont in this post.

One thing that gives me confidence this forecast is fairly accurate is the computer models, and the forecasts, have been pretty consistent for days.

As always, the devil is in the details.  

The details are a forecasting nightmare.  The temperature gradient across Vermont Saturday night will be extreme.

 I have a feeling that somewhere in western Vermont, there will be a 30-mile or less zone where the temperature goes from the mid 50s to around 32 degrees south to north. As you can imagine, that makes it basically impossible to tell who gets what and when.

The broad brush expectation from the National Weather Service in South Burlington will have to do, then.

The (very reasonable) way they see things developing is this:

It's windy today, especially in the Champlain Valley, as you've surely noticed. That'll keep temperatures rising through the 30s and 40s during the day today and tonight.  There might be a little rain around, but not much.

In southern areas of Vermont especially, temperatures will keep rising into the 50s to possibly near 60  as we get into Saturday.

Meanwhile, as the real rain begins in earnest, that low level cold front will slip down from Canada into northern Vermont and adjacent New York and New Hampshire.

How far south the cold front gets, and whether it wobbles north at times during the storm, will determine how much ice will accumulate.  Remember, it will stay quite warm a few thousand feet overhead. So we won't get any snow, except maybe at the very tail end of the storm.

Instead, rain will fall into that thin layer of subfreezing air near the surface and freeze on contact.

Generally speaking, you start to see scattered power outages and tree damage when ice gets to be about a quarter inch thick.  At half an inch, the damage gets pretty extensive. At three quarters to an inch thick, there's widespread, serious tree damage and also widespread, long-lasting power failures.

Early thoughts are Burlington's ice accumulation will be around a quarter of an inch. Bad, but not the end of the world.

But when you get to the northern border counties, we're talking a half inch of ice or more, which is definitely serious. There could be ice at least an inch thick in New York's St. Lawrence Valley.  That area is really in trouble.

Of course, if the freezing rain begins earlier than expected and lasts longer than we think now, everything would be even worse. Stay tuned.  For now, there's a winter storm watch for this scenario in the northern border counties.

Here are some tips for those of you in the expected ice zone:

--- Charge up your devices before the storm.  The power outages might last a long time.

--- Get battery operated candles and lights ready, too. Make sure in advance you have plenty of extra batteries.

---- Fill up the car with gas, too. If the power is out, the gas stations can't pump gas. Don't park under trees, as branches or the whole thing might come down. If you park outside, consider covering your vehicle with a tarp. It'll be easier to get the ice off when this storm is over.

----  Get some cash, too.  If you need to buy anything, especially in an emergency, stores with no power won't be able to process your credit or debit card

---- If you're going to use an electric generator, for gawd's sake make sure no fumes get in the house and everything exhausts outside. You don't want to die of carbon monoxide poisoning.

-----This being Captain Obvious, but stay away from downed power lines and out from under trees.  You never know when a branch will snap off.

At this point,  it's still seeming like precipitation will be mostly plain rain from very roughly Route 2 south, although there might be periods and pockets of freezing rain, too.

There's an inch or two of rain or melted ice coming with this storm, plus the squirt of warm air will melt what snow we have out there. So, there's a floo warning from immediately south of winter storm warning zone near the border down to Rutland and Windsor counties.

Precipitation will be somewhat lighter in far southern Vermont, which means so far, there's no flood alerts there.

The rain, and freezing rain and whatever else will end Sunday afternoon, but the ice will stay on everything in the north. Gusty winds will cause additional power outages and tree damage. Ugh.

I don't know about you, but I am NOT looking forward to this storm.

Dangerous Ice Storm Likely In Parts Of New England, New York

Areas in red are expected to be most likely to get enough freezing
rain to damage trees and power lines Monday. 

The forecast for New England and New York is coming into better focus, and it looks like parts of that region are in for a dangerous ice storm.

Areas surrounding the worst of the expected ice won't have a picnic with this, either.

The big storm in the northern Plains is still unleashing lots snow, ice and rain as of Sunday morning.  The snow and rain since yesterday has made 2019 the wettest year on record in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. The old record was set just last year.  

Total snowfall amid near blizzard conditions in parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota should go over a foot in many places

This storm is dumping, or will dump, a lot of rain and create a severe weather risk today in the South a the system draws lots of moisture fron the Gulf of Mexico.

If all this makes you think the storm has a lot of moisture to work with, you're right.  And that's one key ingredient toward making life miserable in New England and New York on Monday.

That huge influx of moisture will ride up and over a warm front coming at us from the southwest. The problem is, the warm front won't make it through the northern half of New York and New England because of a stubborn chilly high pressure system in Quebec.

The warm air from the south will ride up and over the cold air near the surface that will be draining down from Quebec, setting the region up for the icy mess.

The weather setup has a few simularities to the Great Ice Storm of 1998, but luckily, this one won't be as intense and it won't last nearly as long.  So we won't have a disaster like that.

Areas in yellow are likely to get at least six inches of snow
and sleet accumulation.  Blue areas will get two to four
inches of sleet, snow and some freezing rain 

Still, at this point, it looks like a zone from the Adirondacks, southward into New York's Hudson Valley, southern Vermont, southwestern New Hampshire, western and central Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut are under the gun for a potentially damaging ice storm.

Ice on trees and power lines really starts to cause damage when ice is a quarter inch thick or more. Some spots in the zone I've outlined could easily get more than half an inch of ice from freezing rain.

As you go north and east, more into Vermont and New Hampshire, the amount of freezing rain would decrease if the forecast comes true, but they would get more sleet and snow.

Northern areas, as it stands now, should start as snow, with sleet and a little freezing rain mixing in during the day Monday. Current forecasts indicate four to six inches of sleet and snow - but not much freezing rain - roughly along and north and east of Interstate 89.

The more you head south and west of Interstate 89, the more likely you are to encounter freezing rain on Monday, though these southern areas will get some snow and sleet, too.

Another problem will be wind. Gusts will reach 30 mph, and closer to 40 or 45 mph in some of the western slopes of the Green and Adirondack mountains. Where these strong winds occur along with the freezing rain, the damage to trees and power lines would be magnified.

In the areas where the ice will accumulate the most, be ready for power outages that could last for a couple days. Even longer in more rural areas.

Those of us who will get sleet and snow can expect very difficult travel conditions all day Monday.

Some of this will last into Tuesday as mostly light snow, areas of freezing drizzle and perhaps a bit of plain non-freezing drizzle in the warm pockets continues.

The big caveat is this:  Computer models are in good agreement with how this storm will turn out.  But if the forecasts are off by only a degree or two either way anywhere in the Northeast, the outcome where you sit could turn out very different.

It's always possible that the worst of the freezing rain will set up north, east, south or west of where current forecasts put it. So keep paying attention for forecast updates.

The year 2019 was pretty stormy in the Northeast. The year is ending true to form.

"Ghost Apples" Were A Cool, Amazing Legacy Of Michigan Ice Storm

A "ghost apple" in Michigan. Freezing rain formed around rotten
apples on a tree. The branch shook, the apple fell but left its
icy coating behind. Photo by Andrew Sietsema.

Bouts of ice and freezing rain have been creating havoc off and on from Washington State to New England and beyond this month.

Count me among those who hate freezing rain. You can't drive in it, first of all. That is if you can hack your way through the ice to get inside your car.  

I'm tired of falling on ice, and since I'm getting older, I'm starting to increase my risk of getting hurt in these tumbles. Too much freezing rain brings down trees and power lines.

Yet, like anything else, there's a silver lining to silver thaws, as ice storms are often called. Sun glinting on ice covered trees is gorgeous, for instance. I suppose you can turn your driveway into a nice ice skating rink after freezing rain.  I'm grasping at straws here.

However, one very cool thing happened in Michigan after an ice storm earlier this month. This time of year, people who operate apple orchards begin pruning trees. Late winter is the time to do that.

Another "ghost apple" in Michigan. Photo by Andrew Sietsema via
WOOD-TV

One orchard operator in Kent County, Michigan named Andrew Sietsema went out pruning his apple orchard after an ice storm.

When he pruned, rotten apples still on the trees and encased in ice fell off the trees because the trees were shaking as he lopped off branches.

Most of the time, the ice and the apples fell off together.   But not always.

Apples have a freezing point a little colder than plain water. Temperatures while Sietsema was working were just perfect.  As WOOD-TV in Grand Rapids reported, it was warm enough for the apples to thaw, but cold enough so that the ice from the freezing rain stayed put.

As the trees shook, some of the mushy thawed rotten apples fell off the trees, but the ice that encased the apples stayed behind, attached to the trees.  As you can see by the photos in the post, this created what Sietsema called "ghost apples."  

The ice left behind after the old apples fell formed perfect molds of the apples that were once there. They looked like beautiful glass Christmas ornaments.

Wild Weather Videos From A Wild Weather Week

Huge crashing waves caused by hight winds
froze onto this lamp post on the shores
of Lake Superior.

More videos are coming in -- in dribs and drabs - of some wild moments in the past week's wild weather in North America.

That's the nice thing about technology these days: Everybody's got a camera.

You've already seen some videos that got our attention in prior posts, but here's a few more.

The first involves a family in Danville, Virginia on Sunday who were audably worried as they drove in stormy weather amid tornado warnings.

Then all hell breaks loose. Spoiler: They're OK, and theywent on to check on others in the damaged area (it wasn't that big a tornado, it looks like.) And they check out some of the damage.

Totally worth the watch:



Up in Toronto, Canada, they had an ice storm this week with the big storm. Watch this video of a dog in danger. (Another spoiler: She's fine) The dog was in the back yard, and was startled by what must have been a loud cracking noise.

Frightened, the dog ran to the back deck. Good thing, as you'll find out:



In that same Canadian ice storm this week, a hungry raccoon braved ice and strong winds to get at a bird feeder. It didn't go well. Love the kids indoors laughing at the little critter:



The storm caused a blizzard in the Midwest, and of course high winds were widespread. Check out this beautiful video of huge waves crashing ashore on Lake Superior. Notice how water was freezing on the shore. Remember this is a lake, albeit a big one, not the ocean:



The storm caused very heavy rain in New York City and surrounding areas on Monday. Nearly three inches of rain deluged Manhattan. It turned out not to be a good day to take the subway, as flash flooding caused scenes like this:

Storm To Trash Most Of U.S. (Trouble Here In Vermont, Too)

Big rangeland fires, like this one in Texas back in March, are likely
today in a big area of th southwestern United States. This is the
first salvo in what will be a big, disruptive coast-to-coast storm.
photo by Blake Campbell. 

As we've been building up to all week, a massive storm is going to cause big trouble pretty much coast to coast, starting today.

The hazards include strong, damaging winds, extreme wildfire behavior, a blizzard, thundersnow, tornadoes, severe, thunderstorms, large hail, ice storms, sleet, freezing rain and flooding.

Pretty much everything except locusts. And we might not get an alien invasion. But still.

This will probably be remembered as one of the nation's worst storms of 2018. If not the worst, certainly one of the most wide-ranging. I'm sure you'll be seeing news headlines about this system today through Monday.

Here in Vermont, we face the prospect of freezing rain, possibly enough to cause damage to trees and power lines, sleet, maybe some snow, a lot of rain, possible flooding and possible high winds over the next several days. I'll get to that in a bit later we first cover the havoc in the rest of the nation.

WIND/FIRE

A huge area of the southwestern United States from southern California to Kansas, from Utah to Texas. This is on the southern flank of the developing storm that is getting going in eastern Colorado.

This strong storm is pulling fast moving air in from the west from southern California to Texas. The high winds, gusting as high as 70 to 80 mph in a vast area from the California deserts to west Texas, are sure to cause dust storms, topple trucks on freeways, cut power, damage buildings and knock over trees.

But that's the least of the Southwest's problems with this. Much of New Mexico, southeastern Colorado, western Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle are under a relatively rare extreme fire alert today. This extreme zone will still exist tomorrow - a quite rare two day event, but will be focused in western and northern Texas and southeastern New Mexico.

It's true much of this area is sparsely populated, limiting the number of people in the way of extremely fast moving wild and rangeland fires. But still, this type of weather situation can send walls of flames into small towns and cities throughout this region. And the fires will be moving so fast that it will be hard to get out of the way quickly enough. This is truly a potentially dangerous situation in the Southwest.

BLIZZARD

Fire will not be a problem north of this slow-moving storm over the next few days. However, a winter storm and blizzard will be the issue. Like the fires, the severe winter conditions are going to cover an unusually vast area.

As of this morning, winter storm warnings extend from northwestern Washington to western North Dakota. But the main show will come a little further east across all of South Dakota, much of northern and central Nebraska, into southern and central Minnesota. All of this area is under a winter storm watch, for Friday night and/or Saturday.

I'm sure many of these areas will be upgraded to a blizzard warning as the event draws closer. In fact, just as I was writing this early Thursday morning, the first upgrade to blizzard warning was issued for western South Dakota. This blizzard warning area will expand today.

When the home page of the National Weather Service is this colorful
expect a lot of weather hazards. Those watches, warnings and
alerts will spread east over the next few days a the storm heads
toward the east as well. 

The eastern half of South Dakota, much of Nebraska and Minnesota will probably start off with rain and thunderstorms Friday before going over to snow, with thundersnow also a good bet.

Once the heart of the blizzard arrives in this big region, these areas can expect heavy snow, winds gusting to more than 50 mph and plunging temperatures.

Whiteouts are very likely in this area, and I'm sure they will be recommending nobody go out onto the roads into the blizzard passes late in the weekend.  

The northern Plains do get blizzards occasionally this time of year as strong storms tend to come off the eastern Rockies and trudge eastward toward the Great Lakes. I have a feeling this blizzard will be stronger than most, what with forecasts of up to 18 inches of snow combined with all that wind.

Record cold tempeatures are likely after what will probably be record snowfalls in some areas of South Dakota. Even though the temperatures there will only warm slowly next week, there's a rising concern for flooding as the unusually large amounts of snow begin to melt later one.

STORMS/TORNADOES

South and east of this storm, a big zone in the middle and south of the nation is in for a lot of severe thunderstorms and likely some tornadoes. It's always very hard to predict in advance if there will be a lot of tornadoes and/or several very strong ones, but the potential is there.

Also, this type of set-up is a matter of blind luck, either good or bad. If there are any strong tornadoes, will they stay relatively harmlessly over open, rural areas? Or will they slice through a city, like they did in Tuscaloosa, Alabamaa and Joplin, Missouri in 2011?

There's no guarantee yet that there will even be any super strong tornadoes. But the risk is there.

On Friday, the main risk zone will run from eastern Texas, Louisiana, and on through Arkansas and western Missouri. Saturday the risk will move eastward to the central Gulf Coast states.

NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ICE/RAIN/WIND

Finally, we get to our neck of the woods. Do know, as I've been saying for the past couple of days, that this will be a tricky forecast. You will encounter some surprises, and some forecasts will end up being wrong.

An ice storm in my St. Albans, Vermont yard in January, 2017. Believe it
or not, I might end up with the same view this weekend as an ice storm
now seems like a distinct possibility -- in April! 

The problem is, that storm will set up a strong frontal boundary somewhere over northern New York and northern and central New England.

Temperatures will range widely near the front, from springtime mildness just to its south to winter conditions just to its north.

If the front positions itself at any given time just 30 or 40 miles north or south of where forecasters thought it would,  anyone in our region could have weather conditions much different than forecast.

For instance, a mild rain in southern Vermont could turn to ice. Or an expected slam with freezing rain or sleet or snow in the north could just turn out to be plain rain.  

Given all that, we need to pay attention to some signs of real trouble. There is the potential, especially from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, of enough freezing rain to cause damage across northern New York, northern and central Vermont, northern New Hampshire, maybe parts of Maine and southern Quebec.

It's impossible to tell at this point whether a given location will get mostly freezing rain, sleet, a fair amount of snow or just plain rain. Just be ready for unpleasant, wintry surprises.

Although spring snowstorms sometimes affect the region this time of year, I find it unbelievable that there is actually a threat of an ice storm in mid-April. Such is the weirdness of this spring, I guess.

While damage to trees and power lines is definitely NOT a sure bet, I'd take this seriously enough to make sure you have your flashlights handy and your devices fully charged this weekend in case the electricity goes out.

Most of the forecasts have been trending the ice toward plain rain Sunday, and especially Monday. The rather heavy rains, plus either the previous rains Saturday or the melting ice from Saturday, might trigger some river flooding by Monday and Tuesday.  It does look like a lot of precipitation will fall on our region. Just what type is the question.

Look out for strong winds on Monday, too, especially along the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

So yeah, this looks like a real mess for a lot of us. It's a bummer, to be sure. Let's just hope this will be the last significant blast of winter. I won't bet my next paycheck on that hope, however.

Freezing Rain + Trampoline = Cool Video

They had a bit of freezing rain in Missouri a few days ago. The ice coated everything, including a backyard trampoline owned by the McNew family.

So, Dylan McNew, 14, had a buddy film a slo-mo version of him leaping on to the ice-covered trampoline. The results are awesome. Watch:

Wild Weather Ride In Vermont, Northeast Through Tomorrow

Thirty-six hours ago, there was close to a foot of snow on
the ground in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. After our
mega thaw over the past 24 hours, it's mostly back. And
tonight and tomorrow, most of the lost snow is forecast
to be replaced by a new winter storm. 

I was stunned when I got up at my St. Albans home, in northwestern Vermont when I got up this morning.  

There was nearly a foot of snow on the ground here early Wednesday morning. Virtually all of it is gone this morning.

The tempeature when I went outside with the dogs was in the low 50s, nearly 80 degrees warmer than what it was when I took the dogs out this past Sunday morning.

If you think that is wild, the dizzying swings in weather and temperature are only just beginning.

Flood watches that were in effect for southern and central New England have been extended north today all the way through Vermont. It's warmer out there than some forecasters thought, and a big slug of rain was moving into the state early this morning.

River us is starting to break up, and there's a real threat of ice jams and flooding upstream from those jams into early Saturday morning. Already, as of 8 a.m. a flood warning was up for the Ausable River in the Adirondacks as heavy rain had already moved in there. Melting snow and the likelihood of ice jams prompted that warning

The weather will remain very trying to say the least through Saturday, and beyond, really. Near record highs today - just four days after the record lows last Sunday - are still expected to be replaced by heavy snow, dangerous icing conditions and another blast of Arctic air.

Latest snowfall foredast map from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington, Vermont. Heaviest snow still
looks like it will be to the northwest, (yellow and orange
colors) with four to ten inches there.

(No wonder I had to call in sick to work today: This yo-yo weather is enough to make anybody ill.)

It was remarkably warm this morning. Bennington, and Rutland, Vermont were up to 58 degrees already as of 8 a.m. Burlington was at 54, just one degree shy of the record high for the date. Normally frigid Massena, New York, in the northwestern corner of that state, touched 58 early this morning.  

The temperatures will stay mild through much of the day, along with the moderate to heavy rain hence the flood warning.

Many areas will get an inch of rain today. A few places might close in on two inches. In southern New England, where flood watches are also up, there could even be thunderstorms mixed in, adding to the heavy rain totals.

But that Arctic cold front invading the very wet storm that's affecting the Northeast means business. When the front hits wherever you are, you'll know it. The temperature will absolutely drop like a rock.

When the cold air hits your location, the rain will change to freezing rain, then sleet, then snow. Timing depends on when the front reaches you. The best guess is late afternoon in northern New York, evening in Vermont's Champlain Valley, after 7 p.m around Montpelier and closer to 10 p.m. around Rutland. Give or take a couple of hours on all these time estimates.

Could even be tricky for some evening commuters this evening over New York and possibly, just possibly far northwestern Vermont.

Meteorologists with the National Weather Service and elsewhere say it still looks like the period of freezing rain and sleet won't last as long in northern New York and northwestern Vermont as it will further south, so I don't expect much in the way of damage to trees or power lines there.

This will be a flash freeze, however. All that water from today's soaking rain will freeze very quickly and remain in place, making a mess out of roads, sidewalks and everything else for that matter.

Further south into southern Vermont and in central New England the risk of power outages and tree damage from ice accumulations continues into Saturday.   Forecasters have backed off just a bit on expected ice accumulations from this storm, but the danger of power trouble is still there.

Forecasted snow amounts haven't changed too much. Four to eight inches is still likely by the end of the day Saturday across northern New York and northwestern Vermont. Progressively less will fall as you head toward the southeast, with total snw accumulations by Saturday evening around four to six inches in central Vermont and as little as an inch in far southern Vermont.

As always, this is subject to change. Especially with this storm. There's such a wide range of temperatures with this over a short distance that any subtle change in the track of the storm could have a big effect on accumulations, and whether you get more snow, freezing rain, or plain rain.

The temperature will keep going down, down, down even after this storm departs. It'll be in the teens at best while it's still snowing on Saturday, and be well below zero by Sunday morning. Many places early Sunday will be close to 10 below, or about 65 degrees colder than this morning.

The wild temperature swings continue. Talk about weather whiplash!

And maybe the storm sytems, too. Computer models are disagreeing about the weather during the upcoming mid-week. The European models dump big snowstorm on New England, including Vermont at midweek. The American models say it's going to snow at midweek, but it won't be a huge deal. Stay tuned on that one.

Last Week's Ice Storm REALLY Clobbered New Brunswick

Trees laid low in New Brunswick, Canada after last week's
ice storm. 

Remember that ice storm in Vermont last Tuesday, the one that made that morning's commute hell, closed most of the schools and dropped a few trees and power lines.

That storm got much worse once it got to New Brunswick, Canada, just east of Maine, and they're still reeling up there.

There's videos, too at the bottom of this post.

The storm in New Brunswick cut power to at least 130,000 people there. Nearly a week later, about 25,000 people were still without power, mostly in New Brunswick's Acadian peninsula, which was hardest hit.

The Canadian government is sending troops in today to help with cleanup and power restoration, says the Globe and Mail.  In some places, ice is still on the trees, and gusty winds are making some of them fall, leading to new power outages.

At least two people died in the New Brunswick storm and at least 31 people have suffered carbon monoxide poisoning from generators used during power failures.

We here in Vermont really dodged a bullet with this one, didn't we?  I'm still slipping on the ice, but at least the electricity is still on, and the trees in my yard remain pretty much intact.

Here's some videos out of New Brunswick:

First, a train makes its way through sagging trees and branches laid low by the ice:



ere's a view from inside a house at night as a big tree gives way under the weight of the ice:




Power flashes in Moncton, New Brunswick at night as power lines fail under the ice:

Scenes From An Ice Storm: Staying Yucky In Vermont

An ice-encrusted view of my St. Albans, Vermont house today.

It remains icky across Vermont this Tuesday evening as the lingering, big nor'easter continued to provide us with icy weather, and not the nice powdery snow we're used to this time of year.

There's a series of photos in this post that I took around my St. Albans, Vermont house today. I decided not to venture out into the ice. The home "ice" photos will suffice.

As always, click on any photo you want to view to make it bigger and easier to see.

As I noted yesterday, a nor'easter of the strength we had today, moving along the path just off the coast as it did today, would normally provide a nice big fat powder day for Vermont.

Instead, with the lack of deep cold air in place, we got an ice storm. Oh, sure, we did get a burst of snow during the mid to late morning, but it wasn't all that impressive.

Iced over berries on a shrub in my St. Albans, Vermont yard today. 

Then we spent the afternoon stuck amidst "snizzle" a gloomy, foggy mix of freezing drizzle, mini snow pellets, sleet and yuck.

The forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont late this afternoon said it best:

"What a waste. It's late January, we've got a strong nor'easter off the southern New England coast and all we get out of it is ice, ice, and more ice! Story of the winter of 2016-17, I guess. "

Going into this evening, more light freezing rain and drizzle, sleet and a little snow seem likely at least until midnight, and the winter weather advisory for the icky weather has been extended into the night.

The side view mirror of my truck didn't look very useful today.

Expect this evening's commute to be a bit on the dicey side. Not as bad as this morning, but still nasty enough for you to be careful.

The continuation of freezing drizzle and sometimes gusty north winds has continued to break a few trees and power lines, so more than 2,500 Vermonters remained without electricity as of 5:30 p.m. today.

This has been an odd January in Vermont. Yes, we get an awful lot of cloudy days in the first month of the year and the short days are often dark and depressing.

But we've had a long stretch of warmish, but deep and dark and quiet and damp days. Even the relative excitement of a nor'easter continued this foggy and gloomy stretch today.

The next couple of days will be the same, but with a cooling trend into the weekend. Perhaps, in the next few days, during or beyond this weekend, we might sneak in a couple of days of sun.

That would be nice.

Meanwhile, enjoy today's Vermont ice storm photos. (Scroll down from this point, because there are more beyond this verbiage. And feel more than free to send me your icy photos from today as well.

The staircase to the upper deck of my St. Albans, Vermont
house didn't look very safe today.

Icy branhes in my St. Albans,
Vermont back yard today. 

Power lines leading to my St. Albans, Vermont house
sag under the weight of ice today. So far, knock on wood,
the electricity has stayed on. 

Tree branches weighed down by ice rest on the roof of
my garden shed in St. Albans, Vermont today. 

Ice Storm Continues To Pummel: Updates And Forecasts

This photo from Basehunters Chasing, via Twitter, shows
extreme ice storm damage to trees in Buffalo, Oklahoma.

Trees and power lines are continuing to crumble in parts of the Plains and Midwest this morning as that slow moving ice storm continues to grind on.

Some cities that were under threat were pretty spared, while others were clobbered.

Meanwhile, in the storm's southern end, a couple of tornadoes, hail as big as baseballs and damaging winds struck parts of Texas.

There were still a couple of tornado warnings up this morning not far from Houston.

The storm causing this mess, which until now has been  moving rather sluggishly, will start to accelerate to the Northeast.

This will cause some bad weather here in Vermont Tuesday into Wednesday, but nothing super destructive. I'll have more details on Green Mountain State effects further down in this post.

So far, the storm in the middle of the country is responsible for at least six deaths. Thousands are without power, and things will continue to be bad in parts of northwest Oklahoma, much of Kansas and Iowa today.

On the bright side, the ice storm proved to be not as bad in some big metro areas as origionally Kansas City was largely spared, and things weren't as serious in Wichita, Kansas as some forecasts imagined.

Still, there were a lot of icy roads and crashes in those two big cities, so it wasn't all roses and wine, that's for sure.

Meanwhile, other towns were clobbered. Woodward, in northwestern Oklahoma, looked like a war zone as many trees in that city collapsed under the weight of the ice, bringing power lines down with them.

Television station KFOR reported some streets were completely blocked by fallen trees.

Today, Iowa, Nebraska, parts of Minnesota and maybe the southeast corner of South Dakota are under the gun for mixed precipitation and icy roads.

Freezing rain and winter weather advisories extend all the way into New England, which brings us to what might happen with this storm here at home.

VERMONT EFFECTS:

As always with this type of mixed precipitation storm, forecasting who gets what kind of precipitation where and when gets a little tricky.

Complicating things more is, as this storm system moves into the area Tuesday night, a secondary storm will try to get going along the coast, which raises questions as to how much cold air will get locked in to keep precipitation as snow, sleet or freezing rain, as opposed to just plain rain.

This is subject to change, but the National Weather Service in South Burlington is thinking that perhaps two to five inches of snow and sleet might accumulate by Wednesday morning along and east of the Green Mountains.

The Champlain Valley looks to be in for an inch or so of slop Tuesday night. There may be a little freezing rain thrown in anywhere in the region during the storm, but it's most likely in northern New York.

The freezing rain will certainly not be heavy enough to bring down trees and power lines. It'll just slicken up the roads.

No matter what happens with this storm, it's going to stay unseasonably mild through the upcoming weekend, so much of whatever comes out of the sky later Tuesday into Wednesday will probably melt.