No Storm, But "King Tide" Floods Miami, Other Areas

King tide flooding Sunday in Coconut Grove, Florida.
Photo by Daniel Varela, Miami Herald. 

It was a beautiful, sunny but hot day in Miami Sunday.  It hasn't rained there in days and there were no storms or tropical systems anywhere near southeast Florida.

Yet high tides flooded streets and parking lots and other areas in and around Miami, despite the lack of storms.

Welcome to king tides, now made much more noticeable by climate change.

King tides are higher than normal tides that come certain times of the year during full or new moons. In recent years, due to a combination of factors, these tides are increasingly causing minor flooding up and down the East Coast. Southeast Florida is one epicenter of this phenomenon, as are places like Charleston, South Carolina and Norfolk, Virginia.

In general the Southeastern coast is prone to king tides. Not only is the sea level rising, but the land is sinking, so that's a double whammy.

These king tides are known as nuisance floods because they get in the way but don't cause much in the way of immediate damage. But salt water infiltrates aquifers, and the salt water can damage cars, foundations and other property.

On top of that, if you get flooding on a nice sunny day, imagine what would happen if a hurricane was roaring up the coast during a king tide. Combine that with a storm surge and you get real trouble.

And of course these nuisance king tide floods are getting more frequent as sea levels rise.

According to Climate Central:

"From 2005 to 2015, the median annual frequency of flooding days more than doubled along the stretch of coast from Florida to North Carolina, according to an analysis by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The coast between Virginia and Maine saw a median increase of 75 percent during the same period."

That specter probably also makes people think twice about living near the coast.

Another trouble with king tides is that now they're flooding neighborhoods. When the tide goes out, the water takes fertilizers from lawns, septic tank ickiness and other debris back into Biscayne Bay, increasing pollution there, notes the Miami Herald.

Volunteers on Sunday waded into the king tides Sunday to collect water samples to study how this pollution is moving and affecting coastal waters, says the Miami Herald.

The king tides are continuing today, with coastal flood advisories and statements in effect from Florida to Long Island, New York.

Here's a video of king tide flooding in Key West, Florida this past Friday. Again, notice the lack of storminess and calm winds:

https://www.climatecentral.org/news/rising-tides-near-daily-flooding-americas-shorelines-21935

Extreme Weather Weekend: Cat 5 Lorenzo, Huge Western Snows, Storms, California Twister?

Giant Hurricane Lorenzo in the central Atlantic
Ocean this morning. 

Time to update one of those weekend when the weather across the nation and parts of the world have once again kind of gone off the rails.

There's a couple videos at the bottom of this post.

So let's get going:

WILD HURRICANE LORENZO

Yesterday, I joked a little about Hurricane Lorenzo, in relation to ex-tropical storm Karen. But Hurricane Lorenzo really wowed the weather world last night.

Lorenzo is way out over the central Atlantic, and is no threat to land with the very notable exception of the Azores, which are really under the gun from this storm.

At the end of the week, Lorenzo was a high-end category 4 hurricane, and it was arguably the furthest east in the Atlantic Ocean for such a strong storm. Water temperatures are usually cooler in the eastern half of the Atlantic Ocean than in the western  half, at least in the northern hemisphere.

That means those eastern hurricanes tend not to get as strong as those more to the west, since hurricanes crave the warmest water possible to thrive.

Last night, Lorenzo pulled a fast one on everybody. It was expected to slowly weaken as it moved northward over the open water. And it was weakening Friday night and the first half of Saturday.

Lare Saturday night, though, Lorenzo blew up into a category 5 monster with 160 mph sustained winds. Luckily it wasn't near land. This is easily the strongest hurricane on record in the eastern half of the Atlantic. Also the furthest north we've seen a category 5 hurricane.

Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) posted this map. The dot in blue
is where Category 5 Hurricane Lorenzo was. The red dots
are where all other Category 5 hurricanes developed. You
can see ho far east Lorenzo is

As Dennis Mersereau notes in Forbes, and citing meteorologist Eric Blake, the previous record for the furthest east Category 5 was Hurricane Hugo in 1989, which was a good 600 miles west of Lorenzo's position. (Mersereau is @wxdam on Twitter.)

A number of weather experts I've seen on line say this could easily be another sign of climate change. The water in the eastern Atlantic is now warmer than it used to be decades ago, so this region can support more intense storms.

There certainly has been an uptick in unusually strong Atlantic hurricanes in recent years. As Mersereau writes:

"Lorenzo is the second category five hurricane we've seen in the Atlantic Ocean so far this year, and the sixth such storm to form in the Atlantic in the last four years."

As Lorenzo moves north into cooler waters, it will finally weaken and transform into a regular mid-latitude storm. It could bring strong winds and heavy rain to the British Isles toward the end of the week, we'll have to wait and see.

ROCKIES SNOW

A lovely September day in Choteau, Montana Saturday

It usually snows in the northern Rocky Mountains in September, but not like this!

Some areas, especially in the mountains, can expect a good three feet of snow by the time things taper off Monday night or Tuesday.

Since leaves are still on the trees in many areas, the heavy wet snow is causing a lot of damage to forests, street trees and powerlines. Livestock is suffering and crops are being ruined.

According to meteorologist Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman on Twitter), Great Falls, Montana has 9.7 inches of snow Saturday. That's the snowiest September day on record there. It also would have been the snowiest October day in Great Falls. Erman said you'd have to go to November 8, 2012 to find a snowier day in Great Falls.

Over in Spokane, Washington, they had their first September snowfall since 1926. And it was quite a bit considering the season - 1.9 inches.

Cut Bank, Montana has been snowy, with temperatures in the upper 20s and wind chills in the lower teens since Saturday morning.  That would be rather unpleasant by January standards here in Vermont.

CALIFORNIA SUPERCELL

A relatively rare supercell thunderstorm developed about midway between San Francisco and Sacramento, California Saturday evening. It produced a possible tornado near Davis, and dumped several inches of hail on one area, including a stretch of major highway.

There was also a smattering of severe storms in the mid-Atlantic states, and in and around Missouri yesterday. One especially strong storm hit a Christian music festival in Pennsylvania Saturday, blowing tents around and injuring six people.

RECORD HEAT

Intense heat continued in the Southeast Saturday, with many more records being set.  This state of affairs will continue into the middle of the week.  I expect several cities in the East and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to set all-time records for the month of October.

Several cities in the Southeast and Deep South are having their hottest September on record.

VERMONT IMPACTS

The Green Mountain State will mostly miss the wild weather over the next couple of days. But things will still be interesting. And very changeable.

Yesterday actually felt humid in Vermont ahead of a cold front. Now that front has gone by, and it's cool and sunny. It's going to be a gorgous Sunday for leaf peepers (though most places aren't at peak yet.)  Look out tonight, as there will be scattered frost around, especially away from Lake Champlain.

After another nice day Monday, a warm front will come in with some rains for Tuesday. If skies clear enough briefly before a cold front approaches, highs in some parts of Vermont could top 80 degrees

It appears this cold front will give us a good slug of rain especially Wednesday.

Then it will cool down dramatically. It won't be anything too out of the ordinary for October, but it will come as a shock because it's been rather mild lately. By the end of the week and next weekend, highs will only be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.  A hard freeze is beginning to look like a fairly good bet next weekend. It could even snow on the mountain peaks.

Yeah, I just said the "s" word.

Some videos:

Possible tornado in Davis, California Saturday:



Incredible amounts of hail on a highway near Davis, California Saturday after a tornado-warned
supercell thunderstorm went by:



And a bit of time spent outdoors in Montana Saturday:

Karen Flounders And For Some Reason, Social Media Loves It

Sadly, Tropical Storm Karen never did get to talk to the manager
before dissipating Friday.

As readers of this blog know, there was a tropical storm named Karen earlier this week not far from Puerto Rico.

In the past couple of days, Tropical Storm Karen dissipated, and the internet loved it.

For those not familiar why this was so hilarious:  A fictitious woman named Karen is an internet meme, and in some respects, Tropical Storm Karen acted like her namesake.

Here's how Wired describes our meme heroine Karen:

"Karen has been the internet's stock female antagonist: A righteously annoyed middle-age white woman who loves coupons, reverse mullet bobs, and, above all else, speaking with the manager."

Yeah, you know the type.

As HuffPost reports, our fictitious Karen is pretty hapless, and so was Tropical Storm Karen. Which means weather geeks and others couldn't resist.

People on Friday  really jumped on what was meant to be just a serious, normal update from Joel Franco (@OfficialJoelF): "Karen is a tropical depression and could fall apart 'at any time,' according to the NHC. Not expected to get very far."

You can guess now that went. Karen is not going to get anywhere with the manager, and she's going to have a meltdown because of it

Here's a classic response from @LoveLolaHeart:

"Makes me a little sad, I was kind of rooting for Karen. I thought maybe she would make it rain Pumpkin Spice Lattes and Bed Bath & Beyond coupons and I could use some new pillowcases tbh. I think it would be nice if store managers could honor her memory with a 'Ma'am'"


I still worry that managers everywhere might still feel the wrath of Karen: "Every manager in harm's way, lock your doors now!" one person warned on social media.

Meanwhile, I noticed yesterday that Hurricane Lorenzo was keeping its distance from Karen on the opposite side of the Atlantic Ocean. True to his rather studmuffin name, Lorenzo was the strongest hurricane on record yesterday for a storm in the far eastern Atlantic.

I could we why he was so far away from Karen.  Karen really isn't Lorenzo's type.

"Flash Drought" Hitting Southeastern United States

The U.S Drought Monitor map from a week ago. Yellow indicates
abnormally dry, shades of orange are drought. Notice how
much more orange there is, especially in the Southeast,
in this week's map, below.

We've all heard of flash floods, when a torrential downpour turns quiet water into raging torrents pretty much instantaneously. That's why we call them flash floods. Duh! They hit in a flash.

There's actually such a thing a flash drought, too, believe it or not. Droughts usually develop over months or even years as persistent below normal rainfall dries out the ground, rivers and aquafers.

Under the right conditions, a strong weather pattern can create a drought in just a few weeks. That's what's now happening over the southeastern United States, as the Weather Channel reports. 

We've talked about that persistent heat ridge that has been stuck over the Southeast for over a month now. That has created the perfect conditions for a flash drought.

Of course, high pressure prevents rain from falling. The sinking air in a high pressure system tamps down clouds, so you don't get billowing clouds that can produce rain.

This weather pattern has also brought at least three weeks of record high temperatures, too. In general, the higher the temperature, the faster things dry out. Such is the case in the Southeast, where daytime temperatures have been consistently in the 90s or even 100s.

A great example of the weather that brought on this flash drought is Macon, Georgia.  They reached 102 yesterday, the hottest for so late in the season. It was the third day this month where it got to 100 degrees. Only one day so far this September has failed to reach 90 degrees in Macon.  Even worse, Macon has only received 0.02 inches of rain so far this month. They should have gotten a good three inches during that time period.

Much more orange this week as drought rapidly intensifies
and expands in the southeastern United States.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows how fast this is developing. A week ago, 15 percent of Alabama was experiencing drought. This week, its more like 34 percent.

In Georgia, it's even worse. A week ago, about a quarter of that state was in drought. The U.S. Drought Monitor says this week, almost three quarters of Georgia is experiencing drought. That's an incredibly fast change for a building drought.

The flash drought also extends well into Texas, except in areas around Houston that drowned in flooding from Tropical Storm Imelda earlier this month.

The flash drought sneaks in to a lesser extent into New England, including here in Vermont.  There are currently no official drought regions in Vermont, but 72 percent of the Green Mountain State is regarded as abnormally dry by the U.S. Drought Monitor. That's up from 46 percent last week.

Vermont is on the northern edge of that heat ridge causing the baking dryness down south. Northern Vermont has been blessed by a series of weather fronts that have dumped some decent, but not overwhelming rains.  The southern half to two thirds of Vermont has lately largely missed out on these showers, hence the increasing dryness.

The weather outlook in the Southeast isn't very good. They will endure a few more days of record heat, along with a continued lack of rain through the weekend.

Extended forecasts into first ten days of October indicate continued warm, dry conditions in the Southeast. Up here in New England, it looks like it will turn chillier and wetter (mountain snows?) during early October.

U.S. Extremes Coming Up: Montana Blizzard, Southeast Bakes, Stormy Middle

This weather pattern sill encourage record heat in the southern
and eastern United States, possibly a historic snowstorm in Montana,
and lots of storminess in the central and northern United States
over the next few days.

We've been talking about a weather pattern all month that features a strong ridge of high pressure in the Southeast, with a southward dip in the jet stream in the west.

That has contributed to record heat in the southeastern third of the nation, cool conditions in the northern Rockies, and some very stormy and wet Central Plains.

This weather pattern is about to get turbocharged.

The heat ridge in the East will intensify, and the dip in the jet stream out west will get much more pronounced in the next couple of days.

That means the heat records will really fall in the East, while a possibly historic blizzard hits Montana. Yes, a blizzard. In September.

The Montana situation is especially interesting and dangerous. Six inches to three feet of snow is likely Friday night into Monday, with deep, accumulating snow likely even in valley cities like Great Falls, Helena and Butte.

Leaves are still on the trees in these communities. The heavy, wet snow and strong winds with this storm are likely to cause tons of tree damage. The National Weather Service office in Great Falls, Montana is telling residents that "the combination of heavy snow with strong northeast wind will cause severe to extreme impacts to agriculture, trvel, recreation and likely power outages."

A few isolated mountain locations could get up to four feet of snow. It looks like it could well be a historic storm for parts of Montana.  It does snow in northern Rockies pretty frequently this time of year, but nothing close to what's forecast.

Meanwhile, the East Coast will bake in summerlike heat by early next week. (Probably not up here in Vermont, though. I'll get to that in a minute.)

Highs could touch 90 degrees as far north as Boston, and record heat will  keep summer going in much of the east.

Halfway between the western winter and the eastern summer, expect a lot of rain. Which is terrible because the central and northern Plains have basically been flooding since March. And it's going to continue.

A good two to five inches of rain, with locally higher amounts are expected in places like eastern Nebraska, much if Iowa and Wisconsin over the next week. That'll worsen flooding that's still ongoing. (Part of Interstate 29 in eastern Iowa were still under water as of this morning.)

Bottom line: The weather will really be in the news over the next few days. Look at it this way: It'll be a slight distraction from impeachment news, right?

VERMONT IMPACTS

The Green Mountain State will be on the northern edge of the big eastern heat ridge, which will make for a tricky forecast over the next few days.  It's unclear how far north the heat will get.  There's a good chance that they some days will have quite a large temperature gradient from south to north across Vermont.

There's also a chance some days will be much warmer than forecast. Or much cooler than forecast. Don't you love uncertainty?

To make things even more challenging for forecasters, bits and pieces of the storminess across the central United States will ride up and over the heat ridge in the east. That probably means they'll go right over Vermont or close to it.  So there will be frequent bouts of showers.

Because these disturbances will be moving so fast, it will be hard to judge the timing of them that far in advance. At this point it doesn't look like any of these rainy spells between now and the middle of next week will be all that heavy.  It also looks as if northern area of Vermont would get more rain than southern areas.

Expect the unexpected here in Vermont over the next week or so.

Indonesia Wildfires Turn Earth Landscape To Mars

Dense smoke from Indonesian wildfires have changed the air
to a post-apocalyptic color

Wildfires in Indonesia are choking that region of the world in toxic, awful haze, causing all kinds of health problems, interfering with airports and just making people miserable. 

According to the Guardian:

"Forest fires are an annual occurrence in Indonesia, a result of slash and burn techniques used to quickly ad cheaply clear land for mostly oil palm plantations, but this year, due to a protracted drought, they are more severe.

The crisis has pushed air pollution indexes off the charts in Sumatra and Indonesian Borneo, forced cancellation of scores of flights, the closure of hundreds of schools across Indonesia and Malaysia, caused diplomatic tension and made hundreds of people sick.

On Monday, Indonesia's disaster mitigation agency said that almost one million people were suffering from acute respiratory infections caused by haze and forest fires."

The video below has had no editing.  The atmosphere was really this red as the sun interacted with all the dense smoke particles in the air. Definitely looks toxic. And post-apocalyptic:

This 'n That: Extra Vermont Rain; Arizona Tornado? And Karen Wildcard

Possible tornado just north of Phoenix, Arizona yesterday. Photo via KTAR

I guess I just had to ask for it.

In yesterday's post, I mentioned we could use some rain here in Vermont. I was pessimistic that we'd get all that much.

Then lo and behold, the skies delivered some decent rains. 

Yesterday's cold front overproduced in much of central and northern Vermont, dumping a half inch or more of rain on many towns. Burlington clocked in with 0.90 inches.

My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans, Vermont, collected a decent 0.70 of an inch. A little more rain was falling at the time I measured.   Some areas in the upper Connecticut River Valley received more than two inches of rain.

There was no flooding of note in the heavy downpours, and the rain was helpful.

I am a bit interested in a low topped strong to severe thunderstorm that moved through Saratoga County, New York, across southern Vermont and into New Hampshire last evening. It occasionally showed signs of rotation, but radar samplings weren't all that good because of mountains that got in the way of the beams.

There were reports of trees down in Saratoga County, New York, so that whole thing was vaguely interesting.

Speaking of tornadoes in odd locations, a possible tornado struck near Willcox, Arizona yesterday, injuring three people. Video showed a definite funnel which looks like it touched down. The likely Arizona twister was part of a severe weather outbreak in that state yesterday that also brought quite a bit of flash flooding.

All this was caused by moisture from what was Tropical Storm Lorena, which formed and later dissipated near Baja California last week.

Those tropics are active.  In the Atlantic Ocean, we've got three storms. One of them is a wild card that I will get to in a second. But I want to go in alphabetical order. 

Tropical Storm Karen trying to get its act together
this morning south of Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Jerry is spinning and struggling out there, well northeast of the Bahamas. It's got 60 mph winds but those are forecast to diminish.

 Jerry will continue sputtering away to the northeast out over the open ocean and seems to pose no threat.

Now the wildcard: Tropical Storm Karen. There have been a lot of questions over how well it would survive, and if so, what would happen.

If it dissipated as it headed north toward Puerto Rico, then there would be no worries as it headed north toward Puerto Rico.

But of course Karen started to get its act together again last night. So Puerto Rico is under the gun for tropical storm conditions soon. Oh, and Puerto Rico had an earthquake last night. Luckily, not a lot of damage with that one.

Karen is pretty weak, with sustained winds of just 40 mph earlier this morning, but it is currently expected to strengthen.

Once Karen gets north of Puerto Rico, things could get even more interesting. The National Hurricane Center's thinking is that if Karen stays on the weak side, it would stagger off to the northeast and dissipate like her brother Jerry is doing.

However, there's another big ridge of high pressure building again in the western Atlantic Ocean. This type of setup forced Hurricane Dorian to stall with devastating results in the Bahamas, then head toward the United States, sideswiping the Southeast.

If Karen remains relatively strong, history could sort of repeat itself. Although if it stalls, it looks like it would be over the open ocean. Still, Karen could eventually pose a threat to the United States. We'll have to wait and see.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Lorenzo has formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. The bad news is it's expected to become a wicked strong hurricane. The very good news is at least at this point, it looks like it will recurve to the north and not bother the Caribbean or the United States.

Welcome To Autumn! What's With This Humid Warmth?

A bit of foliage last Sunday over northwest Vermont.  It's gotten
even more colorful over the past week.

Astronomical autumn officially arrived at 3:50 a.m. this morning, but it sure didn't feel like it here in Vermont.

After a rather summery day, south winds and clouds kept temperatures up overnight to welcome autumn. And I mean way up. 

Much of the Green Mountain State was in the 70s as dawn broke on this first day of autumn. Usually, the high temperature this time of year is in the upper 60s, so as you can see, it was balmy.

And humid. Dew points were in the 60s, which equates to a rather muggy July morning.  Certainly not like the third week in September.  

While this early morning warmth  and humidity is definitely unusual for this time of year, it's not unheard of. It can get more extreme. You might remember an unprecedented three-day heat wave with 90 degree temperatures in late September, 2017 as an example.

Plus, this morning's warmth won't last. A cold front is on our doorstep, and will pass through by this evening. A good part of today will be warm and rather humid, with highs staying in the 70s in the northwestern part of our area and getting into the 80s as you go south and east.  A few places in southern New England could reach 90 degrees today.

Despite this weekend's warmth and this morning's mugginess, fall foliage is coming on faster than it has in recent years. By traditional standards its right on schedule. But the past few autumns have been super warm, so foliage was late. I guess not this year.

The next cool down gets underway in earnest tonight. But don't expect anything super chilly in the near future.

Normal temperatures this time of year are falling fast day by day. Tomorrow will feel a bit chilly, but temperatures will be right around normal. (It'll be in the 60s during the day.) There will be a few showers around, but it won't rain all day.

We could use the rain, though. I mentioned the other day the weather pattern is still favoring rather sunny, dry weather in our neck of the woods. The U.S. Drought Monitor has a good chunk of Vermont under abnormally dry conditions. That's not drought, but we could be heading that way if things stay dry.

I don't mean to be alarmist, though. Our wells aren't going to go dry.  There will be several chances of rain in Vermont over the next week or so, though each episode will probably feature scattered showers with light amounts of rain.

As we get later into the fall, we typically get into larger, more drenching rain storms, especially from about Halloween into November. So that will help, if things go according to plan.

With that eastern North American ridge firmly in place, expect temperatures on most days into early October to be near or above normal. There could easily be a few cold days, but most of the time, it will be mild.

Wild Weather Videos To Close Out Your Summer

It's a toasty last day of summer here in Vermont with highs expected to reach the low 80s today, which is a good 15 degrees above normal.

After you enjoy what might be the last 80 degree weather until next spring, we have some weather videos for you on this relatively quiet weather day.

Tornadoes hit Sioux Falls, South Dakota earlier this month. Here is surveillance video from inside a pretty large pizza restaurant that was hit:




The United States gets epic hail storms pretty often, but we haven't cornered the market. Here's one this past week in Guarpuava, Brazil that looks impressive:





Ready for winter? "Snowliage" in Ivanovo, Russia this week:




Finally, a rather unpleasant storm in Baton Rouge, Lousiana this past week. Video by Landon Dinecola via Storyful

Sept. Weather Pattern Gorgeous For New England; But For Rest Of Nation, Not So Much

Gorgeous sunset over northwestern Vermont last Sunday. This is a photo
I took from a hot air balloon.

We here in Vermont and the rest of the New England have been blessed by what has so far been a gorgeous September.

With few exceptions, we've had lots of sunny, pleasant days. Temperatures have generally been a tad cooler than normal, but not by much. Aside from a couple windy days that brought down a few branches, nothing bad has happened. 

This pattern is going to continue, except with some re-arrangements that will make warmer than normal temperatures more likely into early October. There will be episodes of rain and or wind thrown in for the next couple of weeks, but the sunshine seems like it might dominate.

This weather situation has been great for us. For much of the rest of the nation, not so much. On two occasions already this month, the pattern has steered two tropical systems into the United States, with destructive results.

After leveling the northern Bahamas, Hurricane Dorian sideswiped coastal North Carolina, causing a major storm surge flood on Oracoake Island. Then, as we've been talking about all week, Tropical Storm Imelda unleashed another epic flood disaster in Houston and other parts of eastern Texas.

The pattern has also emphasized storminess in the central and northern Plains. Record flooding hitting parts of South Dakota and Iowa earlier this month, and tornadoes swept through Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

It's not getting any better out in that part of the nation. The remnants of Isabel, plus moisture from tropical storms off the west coast of Mexico, combined with a cold front, are expected to unleash more dangerous flash floods today in the central United States, especially in parts of Kansas and Missouri.

Flash flooding and a possible tornado hit eastern North Dakota overnight. Meanwhile, the remnants of now-Hurricane Lorena, which is near Baja California, could unleash flash floods and severe thunderstorms in Arizona early next week.

A big, fat ridge of high pressure mostly centered in the east-central United States has been responsible for this pattern. Under this ridge, in the South and Tennessee Valleys, heat has broken hundreds of records and many cities look like they will have their hottest September on record.

(The fact that the high pressure ridge in the jet stream has been generally centered just west and south of New England has allowed cooler pushes of air to sneak down the front side of the ridge through Quebec and Ontario and on into New England).

With the ridge in the east, there's a corresponding dip in the jet stream over the western United States. That has produced some rare thunderstorms in places like Seattle this month.

There are signs that the jet stream dip in the West could sharpen in the coming days, opening up the possibillity of unusually strong rain storms for this early in the season, and an odd amount of early season snow in parts of the Rockies.

So yeah, us Vermonters can really rejoice in the great weather we've had,  considering we've been almost surrounded by all kinds of yucky and even dangerous conditions.

Enjoy it while you can, because I have an adage that has always worked: No great weather in Vermont goes unpunished. We will get our comeuppance soon enough. What form that will take is anybody's guess.

Houston's Misery: Another East Texas Flood Calamity

Vehicles stuck in the latest Houston flood disaster. Photo by
Elizabeth Corley/Houston Chronicle 

They knew parts of eastern Texas were going to be in trouble days before Tropical Storm Imelda came along this week.

I think few people believed it would be this bad.

Up to 42 inches of rain deluged some East Texas communities as what became Tropical Storm Imelda sat over the region Wednesday and Thursday.

The area, still suffering PTSD from the epic floods of Hurricane Harvey two years ago, had to live through the same thing again.

Enough is enough.

Two deaths have been blamed on the storm so far.  I imagine spirits are crushed, too.  People who barely got their homes back after the inundations of Harvey lost them again.

Houston meteorologist Matt Lanza @mattlanza has a great Twitter thread about how heavy these repeated floods are for the people of a city he loves.  The thread is definitely worth the read, but here's a snipped:

"I feel soul-crushed. For us in Houston (and the Golden Triangle) the last 4-5 years have been a never ending hell for so many people. It's cruel. It's depressing. It's weather, and sometimes it sucks. At some point it becomes an existential problem for SE Texas."

It looks to me like Imelda took Houston and other areas by surprise. At least more than Harvey managed to do..

As the day began, areas northeast of Houston, towns like Beaumont and Winnie were inundated as rain fell for hours at a rate of one, two, three even four or five inches per hour.

Things weren't as bad in Houston proper to start. It was raining, but no biggie. There were forecasts that it would get worse, but people headed off to work. Schools weren't canceled so the kids all left.

Then the thunderstorms with their incredible rains moved south and enveloped Houston. Several inches of rain came down in two or three hours. It was all over. The roads all flooded. People were trapped at work or school. Or they had to be rescued from suddenly flooded cars on the freeways and service roads.

I guess we now live in a climate world in which the weather will take us all by surprise much more frequently. I certainly don't know to what extent climate change influenced this latest disaster in Houston. Other factors are certainly at work, such as poor land use, poor drainage and just plain bad weather luck.

As worse-than-expected disasters keep piling up, I guess we have to be more and more on guard for when the weather turns on us in deadly and catastrophic fashion.

It's not a great feeling.

Videos:

An overview of the flooding via ABC 13 in Houston:



An even more eye-popping video from the same television station, showing aerial views of the traffic
nightmares in Houston from the flash flooding. Note the many cars and trucks flooded, and the many thousands of other vehicles stranded behind them on higher ground. But they certainly weren't going anywhere:



KHOU-TV reported on a freeway that took on water so fast that people were trapped in their cars. Good Samaritans carried people from the cars to temporary refuge on a flatbed truck. Then, others on an overpass flagged down a truck with a long ladder, so people were able to climb to safety:



Also from KHOU, havoc in Winnie, Texas. In some of the clips in this video, notice how incredibly torrential the rain is.

Epic Flooding In Texas As History Repeats Itself

A television station in Beaumont Texas was evacuated due to
extreme overnight flooding.

Once again, a slow, slow moving tropical system has unleashed another huge flood disaster.

It seems to be happening more frequently, and the results are catastrophic.

This time, it's in and around the suffering city of Beaumont, Texas.  Houston got most of the headlines from the immense rains and inundations of Hurricane Harvey in 2017. But Harvey also badly buried Beaumont in water.

In a scene reminiscent of Harvey when television station KHOU had to be evacuated mid-broadcast due to rising waters, television station KBMT, 12 News Now in Beaumont, was evacuated early this morning as water poured into offices and studios.

Television stations are often a lifeline during disasters because of the information they broadcast, so this isn't good at all.  The town of Winnie is reportedly almost entirely under water.

Rainfall rates this morning have been as high as five inches per hour in parts of the area. Rainfall totals early this morning were closing in on 30 inches.  Beaumont Police early this morning reported at least 250 water rescues and 270 requests for evacuation. They urged people to call 911 only for dire emergencies since they are so swamped with calls.

The remains of Imelda were inland over northeastern Texas this morning. It was pulling in bands of deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The airflow with these bands was converging toward each other, increasing the lift in the atmosphere, intensifying the thunderstorms and unleashing incredible rains.

Early this morning, forecasts called for this situation to continue for several more hours, dropping as much as ten additional inches of rain on the flooded Beaumont area and environs.

This is the second time this hurricane season we've had a stall, with disastrous results. You'll remember Hurricane Dorian coming to a halt over the northern Bahamas, blasting them with as much as Category 5 winds for more than a day, instead of just a few hours like most hurricanes.

We had Hurricane Harvey stall in Texas two years ago, as mentioned. Florence stalled near the Carolinas in 2018, creating another flood disaster. A no-named storm in 2016 sat in Louisiana, causing record floods.

The Independent reports that NOAA and NASA researchers have seen a decrease of 17 percent in forward speed of North Atlantic tropical systems. The used to travel at a rate of 11.5 mph in 1944, but they were down to 9.6 mph by 2017.

Scientists are trying to figure out to what extent, if any, these slower storms are due to climate change. Some studies hint that the fact the Arctic is warming faster than lower latitudes is slowing upper level wind speeds, and thus slowing tropical storms, notes the Independent. 

In any event, this is the latest in a string of major flood events that have savaged parts of the nation in recent years.

Oh, by the way, flash flooding was happening again this morning in parts of Nebraska and Iowa.

Tropical Trouble All Over The Place: Texas Now The Focus

Gorgeous but dangerous Hurricane Humberto approaching Bermuda
this morning.

Tropical storms and hurricanes seem to be popping up all over the place, so I'm sure the people at the National Hurricane Center are wicked busy!

With the glaring exception of the upper Texas coast, there is no immediate threat to land in the United States, but plenty to watch. 

IMELDA

First let's get to that situation in Texas. As I mentioned a few days ago, it has been rather dry in and around Houston, Texas lately, so residents there at first were gratefully watching a weather disturbance move westward across the Gulf of Mexico toward them, promising some drought-busting rains.

However they do things big in Texas and the rain has become way too much of a good thing.

As the disturbance neared the Texas coast in the past couple of days, it looked more and more like a tropical storm trying to form. Things escalated quickly on Tuesday, even with prior forecasts warning of heavy rains and floods with this thing.

At around noon Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center noted the definite circulation of the storm just off the Texas coast and declared it a tropical depression. Within 45 minutes, it strengthened enough, with top winds of 40 mph, to be declared Tropical Storm Imelda.

Less than an hour after that, Imelda made landfall near Freeport, Texas.  Since it went inland, the winds weakened and it soon was back to being a tropical depression. So this was one of the shortest lives I've seen for a tropical storm in a long time.

But Imelda's rains are lasting a long time, and that's the problem.  People in Houston and much of the rest of coastal Texas are always jittery when there are flood alerts, given the extreme havoc Hurricane Harvey caused in 2017.

This situation is no Harvey, but the flooding from ex-Imelda is definitely ramping up.

According to Houston meteorologist Matt Lanza (@mattlanza) Houston as of early this morning has escaped with little flooding, though areas south of the city have had torrential rains and flash flooding.  A few spots received up to five inches of rain in an hour. Reports out of Matagorda County indicate up to 20 inches of rain already.

The rain could ramp up in Houston itself later today.

There is a flood risk in eastern Texas from the former Imelda through tomorrow.

HUMBERTO

Hurricane Humberto has really cranked up with top winds of 115 mph. It looks like it will come very close to Bermuda tonight or early tomorrow, blasting them with hurricane force winds. Then it will thankfully keep heading northeastward, further and further away from us. Good riddance!

This is a large storm, with hurricane force winds extending out 60 miles from its eye. Tropical storm-force winds go out 175 miles. Despite the fact it's missing the United States by a wide margin, there will be dangerous swells and rip currents for the next few days.

JERRY

Tropical storm Jerry formed overnight way out over the central Atlantic, way east of the Leeward Islands. It is expected to grow into a hurricane and could threaten those islands in a couple days. Beyond that, it's not known yet where it will head. Earlier indications are it will turn north before reaching the United States, but that is definitely not guaranteed.

August World's Second Hottest, With Some Particular Standout Places

Another month, another red global map. Most places were once
again warmer than normal during August. 

The global temperature figures are in for August and hot times continue. For the world as a whole, August, 2019 was the second warmest August on record, says the National Centers For Environmental Information. 

The oceans were the hottest on record for August.  Due to some cool spots in the southern hemisphere, global land temperatures were fourth warmest on record, so August, 2016 remains Number 1.  

The Northern Hemisphere had its hottest summer on record. Not surprisingly, then, Arctic sea ice in August was at its second lowest level on record.

So far, 2019 is the third warmest on record and the year as a whole is almost guaranteed to be among the five hottest. September is off to a hot start in much of the globe, too, so that will count for something.

There have been some strange local records in recent weeks. The town of Utquiagvik, formerly Barrow on the northern tip of Alaska is usually a pretty cold place with no growing season. Subfreezing temperatures often occur there even in July.

This year, Utquiagvik actually DID have a growing season. As of Sunday, the town has been above freezing since June 25. That's 83 consecutive days above freezing in Utquiagvik. Another remarkable thing is the normal low temperature in early September there is about 30 degrees. Yes, below freezing.

Meanwhile, unlike northern Alaska, Hawaii is supposed to be warm, but this is ridiculous. Since April, Honolulu has broken 16 record highs and tied 19 others, says Hawaii News Now. 

On 28 of the 29 days ending Sunday, record high temperatures occurred somewhere in Hawaii, says Maui Now. 

An intense heat wave has gripped he Deep South, all month, with dozens upon dozens of record highs falling.  Some cities have reported all-time record highs for September.

Here in Vermont, we continue to enjoy a relatively cool September. The sun will be out all week, and by the weekend, we, too will share in the summer-like weather. It could easily be in the low 80s here by Saturday and Sundayh.

Hot Air Balloon Ride: "Iffy" Weather Made Things Especially Magical

My husband Jeff watching as crews inflate our hot air balloon Sunday
for our trip over parts of northwestern Vermont. 

My perfect husband gifted me yesterday with a trip on a hot air balloon with him over exceptionally scenic northwestern Vermont.

It was an absolutely spectacular way to celebrate my birthday, our wedding anniversary and his retirement.

It was magical and it is another reason why I will be forever grateful to him for all sorts of reasons. The balloon ride was another big item off my bucket list.

This is of course a weather and climate blog, so I'll get into that stuff, too, while describing this wonderful trip.

The balloon excursion was run by Above Reality Hot Air Balloon Rides based in Essex, Vermont.

Light through the clouds during our balloon trip Sunday over
northwestern Vermont. 

We were supposed to go last Sunday, but winds were too strong and out of a direction that would have made safely landing almost impossible.  So we went yesterday.

On our way to Essex, I was dismayed to see the sky had become gray and overcast, and a few raindrops splattered onto the windshield.

Would the trip be canceled again? Or would the weather make this a less-than-ideal experience?  Well, I would find out

Eight people, including Jeff and me, had booked Sunday's excursion.  They balloon company wanted us to land somewhere close to where their base in Essex is.  So we piled into a van and drove about 12 miles northwest to Milton.

The slightest breeze was blowing from the northwest, so they figured the wind would take us back to somewhere near Essex.

A bit of fall color in the trees as viewed from our hot air balloon over
northwestern Vermont Sunday

When we got to the field in Milton, the balloon people were already setting up.

The guy running the show was named Jeff, like my husband.  To avoid confusion, I'll refer to this guy as Pilot Jeff.

It started to sprinkle again while they were inflating the balloon and the sky looked darker. I mentioned I was a weather geek.

Pilot Jeff consulted aviation weather and radar and I checked in with the National Weather Service/Burlington web site. Then Pilot Jeff and I compared notes.

At first glance, things looked grim. Radar was totally lit up with blues and greens, indicated a fairly widespread light rain, which might interfere with things.

However, the air was also dry. Most of the precipitation being picked up by radar was virga, which is rain that evaporates before hitting the ground. Even better, a pocket of even drier air loomed just to our west and it was moving in.

A brook zigzagging through the northwestern Vermont landscape
as seen from our hot air balloon trip Sunday. 

Additionally, these were flat stratus clouds, not the billowing tall clouds that can produce lightning.

A risk of lightning would have scrubbed the flight, but Pilot Jeff and I agreed the weather conditions would not produce any electricity. The sprinkles stopped and the flight was on!

Pilot Jeff acknowledged that people might be disappointed by the clouds, but they would result in better photographs. No harsh shadows, and no washing out of images from camera lenses pointed at the sun. This would be great, he assured us.

And Pilot Jeff was right. I mentioned the air was dry, despite the cloud layer. This meant there was basically no haze. We lifted off, and soon we were about 2,000 feet over Milton.

The air was so free of haze that we could clearly see Mount Royal in the middle of Montreal. The sun was out in Montreal, and we could see the sunlight glinting off downtown skyscrapers. Montreal is about 80 miles northwest of Milton, so that's impressive. We could even see the Laurentian Mountains northeast of Montreal. That was really impressive!

To the west, the light winds coming up and over the Adirondacks caused a bit of sinking air on the western side of Lake Champlain. That opened up holes in the clouds, and beautiful light came through and lit up the lake and its western shore.

Exposed old dead tree roots in a marsh, as viewed from overhead
during our hot air balloon excursion on Sunday.

We saw a beautiful display of what are known as crepuscular rays, which are alternate beams of sunlight and darker hues.  The rays are caused by the sun hitting a few specs of dust or particles in the atmosphere.  The rays looked like a whole bunch of Hollywood spotlights to me.

The wind direction gave us a perfect flight path.  It was almost exclusively over wilderness and we didn't go over many neighborhoods. It was all forest, streams, marshes, bogs and beaver ponds. Just spectacular.

Even better, the wind was extremely light. Which meant our forward motion was very slow. We could linger on any particular view. It was really meditative. The bursts of the flame to keep the balloon aloft was white noise which actually helped that wonderful, peaceful mood.

Pilot Jeff, always enthusiastic, couldn't stop remarking about how much early fall color there was in the forests. Unlike recent Septembers, this one has been relatively cool in Vermont. The color was a little earlier than the past few years.  The forests were still mostly green, but there were beautiful pockets of orange and purple and yellow.

At one point, Pilot Jeff deliberately had the basket of our balloon scrape the tree tops. A fellow passenger grabbed a perfect orange autumn sugar maple leaf as a momento.

One couple in particular loved the cool air. They had fled Atlanta, which has been hotter and more humid than their usual oppressive standards this summer and September. Bundled up in jackets, you can see the pair just oozing relief at feeling cool air for the first time in months. Of course, it's all perspective. The temperature was in the 60s, which to me seemed pretty mild. Go figure.

We finally touched down in a lovely green field next to a beautiful old brick farmhouse somewhere near the Westford/Essex town line.

We were given Champagne to celebrate.  But I was of course sad to see the excursion end. I wanted to have it go on forever.  Thank you husband Jeff, for this beautiful experience.

Love you!!

Videos: Extreme Floods Hit Spain

Severe flooding in Spain piled up these cars. So far six people are
known dead from the severe storms. 

It wasn't just South Dakota that had epic floods this week.

Parts of Spain had even more extreme inundations, as the videos below show.  

The flooding has killed at least six people, including one man who was in a car inside a tunnel that filled up with water within minutes, according to The Guardian. 

The storms were focused in southern Spain. One town got 3.5 inches of rain in an hour. (For comparison, here in Vermont, on average, it takes the entire month of September to get that much rain. Another community reported a storm total of 15 inches.

This is the second time in about a month that Spain has been hit by extreme storms. In August, flooding and severe hail hit in and around Madrid

First, a good overview of the flooding via The Guardian:



Here's cars being swept away in Los Alcazares, Spain:



Here, a person is trapped by rising water against a tree, putting him in real danger. Watch a truck driver make a rescue:


It wasn't just flooding. A tornado struck the resort area of Alicante, Spain:

Humberto Forms, Looks Like It Will Miss United States, But....

Tropical Storm Humberto looking large but disorganized in the
Bahamas Saturday morning. It is expected to organize and
grow into a hurricane once its north of the islands.

As expected Tropical Storm Humberto has formed in the Bahamas.

Even though it's not very strong, it's near the Abaco Islands in the Bahamas, which was basically wiped off the map by Hurricane Dorian a couple weeks ago.  Which means Humberto is going to cause more misery in the northern Bahamas as it slowly strengthens and moves north.

At least it's moving, unlike Dorian. Humberto is expected by the National Hurricane Center to become a hurricane, but only when it's safely north of the Bahamas.

More good news: It looks like Humberto is going to head east and northeast after that, away from the United States coastline.  

I did mention this week that the overall weather pattern over the western Atlantic Ocean favors tropical storms and hurricanes heading toward the United States. That's due to strong high pressure in this region.

But, timing is everything. While Humberto wants to move north, a weak, temporary dip in the jet stream east of New England will cause an area of weakness in that high pressure. The dip in the jet stream and that weakness looks like it wants to take Humberto out to sea.

This out-to-sea scenario comes with a caveat: It's possible that dip in the jet stream could keep moving on, prompting Humberto to reverse course and head back to the United States. At this point it seems unlikely, but some computer models do show this scenario. It's worth it to watch and see.

Additionally, the weather pattern that is favorable for tropical storms and hurricanes could easily reassert itself. There are several disturbances way out there in the Atlantic Ocean that the National Hurricane Center is watching. Some of them could develop into tropical storms and head toward the United States.

That is just speculation at the moment, but since we're still in the peak of hurricane season, all these systems will need to be watched.

Meanwhile, some residents of Vermont's Champlain Valley could be forgiven if they thought they experienced their own tropical storm this morning.

Of course, there is no tropical storm anywhere near Vermont. But strong high pressure to the east of us, and  cold front coming from the west - which is part of that dip in the jet stream that should take Humberto away from the United States - is funneling strong winds up the Champlain Valley.

I noticed a gust 51 mph at Burton Island and  49 mph at Colchester Reef this morning. On my exposed hillside in St. Albans, I would stay some gusts are going a little over 40 mph and some small branches are down on my property.

This windy state of affairs should continue most of today. Expect a few downed branches and maybe a couple of power failures here and there. As of 8 a.m. today, there were a smattering of outages, mostly in Chittenden County. Statewide, only about 50 homes and businesses were without power, so that's not extreme, thank goodness.

Winds should calm down nicely by this evening.

Bahamas Tropical Storm Nightmare, South Dakota Flood, Vermont Wind

Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 building steam this morning near the Bahamas
and likely to become Tropical Storm Humberto within a couple days.

This is so, so NOT what the northern Bahamas needs.

Things are still in full crisis mode in the devastated northern islands of the Bahamas after Hurricane Dorian a couple weeks back.

Now, the same area is under a tropical storm warning. 

Normally, the Bahamas can manage a "mere" tropical storm, but torrential rains and winds in excess of 39 mph are going to make a terrible situation worse.

The culprit is something now called "Potential Tropical Cyclone #9." This is the National Hurricane Center's way of alerting the public to a near-term threat from a developing system that hasn't quite made it to tropical storm intensity. Yet.

Forecasts for Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 are still all over the place, but it appears, just like Dorian, it will slowly, grindingly head through the Bahamas and probably near the Florida east coast. The only good news is it won't be a Category 5 hurricane. Chances are, it will stay below hurricane strength.

But Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 will probably bring a prolonged period of gusty winds and heavy rain to the Bahamas, and a tropical storm warning is out for many of those islands, including the ones hardest hit by Dorian.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for much the Florida east coast this weekend.

Given the uncertain forecast for the path of this wannabe tropical storm, I'm sure there will be updates and changes to its expected impacts.

SOUTH DAKOTA FLOODS

South Dakota cannot seem to catch a break this year. Or last year even.

Last year was among the wettest on record in parts of South Dakota. This year is even wetter. All this was made worse by widespread downpours this week.  A large part of southeastern South Dakota received four to as much as ten inches of rain in 48 hours earlier this week.

This is in addition to the the three tornadoes that blasted through Sioux Falls, South Dakota the other day.

Widespread flooding is occurring in South Dakota.  Parts of the Big Sioux River reached record high levels. The previous highest flood along the river near Dell Rapids was set just a few months ago in March, the Sioux Falls Argus Leader reports.

Parts of Interstate 90 in eastern South Dakota also shut down because of flooding. Much of the town of Madison was under water Thursday after six to 10 inches of rain fell in the area.

Sioux Falls has had 34 inches of rain so far this year. Normally, only 20 inches or so should have fallen by now.  It's been so wet that parts of the James River between Huron and Yankton have been continuously above flood stage since March.

Video of Madison, South Dakota is at the bottom of this post.

VERMONT WIND

Once we get into autumn, cold fronts and storms can cause relatively strong winds in Vermont, especially when south winds funnel up the Champlain Valley.

This type of thing looks like it will happen late Friday night and Saturday, when gusts in the Champlain Valley could reach 45 mph.

Leaves are still on the trees, obviously. In strong winds, the leaves act like little sails, catching the wind and bending branches more than if the foliage was already on the ground. This makes it more likely we'll see a few scattered trees and branches down and a few spot power failures.

This won't be a major event - no big destruction with this. But don't be surprised if your yard is littered with twigs and branches by Saturday evening.

VIDEO:

Here's a drone video of serious flooding in Madison, South Dakota:

See-Sawing Into Autumn, But With Summery Interruptions

Clouds over St. Albans. Vermont on September 4 showed both
the volatility of a summer sky and the gloom of late autumn
We are certainly in a transition season. 

So far, September in Vermont this year is a lot cooler than the record warmth of the past three summers.

You can see it on the hills and mountains.  While the trees are still mostly green, there are more splashes of color on this September 12 than there were on this date over the last three years.

However, in the days going forward, look for some summery periods in this downward temperature slide into autumn.

We had such an warm interruption yesterday, when Burlington, Vermont got above 80 degrees for the first time since August 30. And we had some oppressive humidity to boot. A definite summer flashback.

Last night's cold front has gotten us back into fall.  It was dank, overcast and cool this morning, though the sun should come out this afternoon, especially in the north. But it'll stay cool, setting us up for tonight, which will probably be the chilliest one since early June.

I would not be at all surprised if the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom, the Green Mountains, the Adirondacks and White Mountains see a touch of frost. Most of us have nothing to worry about in that department, though. The gardens are still safe. For now.

We in Vermont have been, and will be for the next several days in a bit of a battleground between oddly strong and hot high pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean and the southern United States. Record highs have been falling like crazy in the South.

We'll keep seeing attempts for that hot air to make a run towards us, but the heat will keep getting cut off at the pass by cold fronts from Canada. In fact, the forecast looks really tricky for the first part of next week. The heat will build strongly in the Midwest. The center of the heat ridge will be just to our west.

That would open the door for back door cold fronts to come in from eastern Canada. (It's called a back door cold front because it comes in from the north and east, which is somewhat unusual. Most cold fronts come at us from the west.)

These back door cold fronts can make for some weird temperature contrasts, with chilly air to the east and very warm air to the west. Where any one location in Vermont sets up under this scenario is anyone's guess. Could be warm, could be chilly next week. Stay tuned.

There are signs, though, that the summer-like warmth will temporarily engulf us fully later next week.

By the way, this relatively odd set up with the strong high pressure in the Atlantic and southeastern United States is not a good one to have during hurricane season, which is now.

Often, tropical storms and hurricanes manage to recurve northward, well offshore of the East Coast, sparing us any storms and disasters.

This current weather pattern tends to steer tropical storms and hurricanes either toward the East Coast or Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical depression or tropical storm is forecast to form in the next day or two over the Bahamas. It is already raining hard under the system's developing thunderstorms.

The really bad news is even if this wannabe tropical storm doesn't get too strong, it will dump torrential rains on the northern Bahamas, which were devastated by Hurricane Dorian. This area surely doesn't need more trouble!

Nobody is really sure where this wannabe tropical storm will go after the Bahamas. But given that strong high pressure in the Atlantic, this storm could easily end up threatening Florida, the southern Eastern Seaboard or the Gulf Coast states.

At this point, there is pretty much no agreement in the computer models as to where this will go. We'll just have to wait and see.