We Might Never Know Puerto Rico Maria Death Toll, But U.S. Surely Dropped Ball On Response

Harvard researchers say the death toll in Puerto Rico from Hurricane Maria
last year was many times more than the "official" count. I guess
Donald Trump throwing paper towels into a Puerto Rican
crowd was inadequate hurricane relief. 

People are rightly appalled by the figures provided by Harvard University researchers who put the death toll from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico last year at 4,645.

That's far above the "official" death toll of 64 attributed to the Category 4 hurricane on the island.

The Harvard researchers' findings is an estimate and could well be off. Still, it's horrifying.

It's based on a survey of 3,299 Puerto Rican households, which indicates 31 percent of respondents reported disruptions in medical services and 14 percent said they were unable to get their medications, according to the Associated Press. 

From there the researchers extrapolated the number of deaths caused by the lack of medical care post-Maria.

And that's the big takeaway from this research as far as I'm concerned. However many people died from the hurricane in Puerto Rico, the overwhelming majority of the casualities were not caused directly by storm surges, or flooding or high winds.

Most of the deaths were caused by a weak response to Maria. Yes, surely, some people would have died of medical complications in the immediate aftermath of such an extensive disaster. But the fact that the power was out for months in many areas, and that resources weren't applied adequately to the island is a national shame.

Remember, Puerto Rico is part of the United States. I remain convinced that because most Puerto Ricans aren't white, and most are Hispanic, the response wasn't as robust as it could have been, due to, yes, racism.

Let's face it, the response to Hurricane Harvey in Texas and Hurricane Irma in Florida last year was way more effective and timely than the Maria response in Puerto Rico. 

I do agree with Vox and other commentaries that the poor response to Maria was a mix of the Trump's administration's racism and its incompetence. As Vox says:

"Suspicion will, of course, linger for years that there's a connection between Trump's habit of weaponizing anti-Latino hysteria as the centerpiece of his politics and the unfolding of an essentially unprecedented human tragedy in a Spanish-speaking U.S. territory. 

The possibility that Trump and his team simply have no idea what they're doing should not, however, be dismissed out of hand. The fat of the matter is this is the only real crisis we've had occasion to see Trump try to wrestle with, and it's been a total fiasco - with a high human cost."

The Trump administration did not adequately gear up ahead of the storm when they knew it was coming. The relief effort was paltry and rife with incompetence or worse. Trump blamed Puerto Ricans for not recovering from Maria by themselves. He seemed to think throwing a few rolls of "beautiful soft" paper towels at people in Puerto Rico after Maria would make all the difference.

More people are researching to determine more precisely how many people died in Puerto Rico due to Maria and the U.S. government's paltry response.

George Washington University is also conducting an independent review to determine the number of Maria-related deaths in Puerto Rico. The results of that study were due out in May, says the AP, but the research team asked for and received more time to complete the study.

I hope more research does shed more light on this travesty, and if people in the Trump administration didn't do enough, let's hold them to account.

Tropical Depression Strikes Indiana Of All Places, Bad Flooding Elsewhere

Tropical Depression Alberto still has a well defined tropical-like
circulation over Indiana on Wednesday. 

This morning, former subtropical Storm Alberto was still a tropical depression - in Indiana of all places.

Alberto has held together remarkably well as a tropical system. Usually, they transition pretty quickly to non-tropical storm systems or disturbances soon after moving inland.

Alberto will indeed become just a regular old inland weather system later today, but it's survivability into Indiana is pretty incredible.

Satellite photos from this morning show a well defined pinwheel Tropical Depression Alberto centered not far from Terre Haute, Indiana.

This is a big example of what's known as the "brown ocean."  The tropical disturbance can hold together becuase there is no influence from an upper level low that would disrupt the circulation. Also, there was plenty of low level and moisture from the ground to support the tropical system.

Remember, tropical systems depend on warm water to maintain their strength and integrity. When they go inland, that source of nutrition for tropical systems ends. Usually. Except in cases like this when there's nothing to disrupt them and there's plenty of atmospheric moisture to work with.

North Carolina Department of Transportation truck swept into a river
Tuesday. The two workers in the truck were rescued. 

While the actual circulation of Alberto is relatively small, it drew huge quantities of tropical, wet air into parts of the nation, causing or at least greatly contributing to some pretty horrible flash floods in some locations.

Western North Carolina was especially hard hit, with plenty of evacuations, water rescues, road closures and property damage.

Even the famed Biltmore Estate in Asheville was affected: The main entrance to the mansion and tourist attraction was blocked by floodwaters.

Ashville has had its wettest May on record.

Interstate 40 in McDowell County, North Carolina was closed due to landslides and flooding. Two North Carolina state highway workers had to be rescued from the flooding.

A flash flood emergency was also declared in parts of Alabama as well. Many roads are closed and people had to be rescued from at least one flooded home.

GERMANY FLOOD, TOO

Flash flooding seems to to be all the rage this week across much of the world. We had the Ellicott City, Maryland disaster on Sunday. Other flash floods struck parts of the Rocky Mountains. Areas of Great Britaina and particularly Germany have also been slammed by these floods.

Roads and buildings flooded, roofs collapsed and people were rescued, especially around the city of Wuppertal, Germany.

Some videos:

Flooding in the Biltmore Village section of Asheville, North Carolina:



Flooding in Germany:

Alberto Update: Two Journalists Die Covering Storm

Alberto over Alabama Tuesday morning.  

Once-Subtropical Alberta, which moved inland yesterday, is still prompting widespread flood alerts and watches and warnings as it slowly moves north toward the Midwest.

Tragically, two journalists in North Carolina died while covering the storm.  A tree fell on a vehicle as WYFF anchor Mike McCormick and photojournalist Aaron Smeltzer covered heavy rains and potential flooding.

The danger from Alberto is from flooding, and the area at risk is pretty widespread. The tragedy in North Carolina was one example of this.

As Alberto made landfall along the Florida Panhandle Monday, a wide fetch of tropical moisture associated with the storm flowed into areas as far away as the Carolinas.

That's why McCormick and Smeltzer were covering the storm. Flood watches and flash flood warnings were in effect Monday in the Carolinas.

This morning, flash flood warnings were up for areas of Alabama, including the Tuscaloosa area. Flash flood watches are up today for a wide area of the Southeast, as they were yesterday. Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and Kentucky are some of the areas under threat from the flooding today.

The remnants of Alberto will make their way up toward Michigan by Thursday and on up into Canada Friday. Heavy downpours are possible along the storm's path, but I don't expect huge, widespread floods.

Tornado over Colorado Tuesday.
Photo by Daniel Shaw, via Twitter
@DanielShawAU

TROUBLE ELSEWHERE

Monday was quite an active severe weather day in much of the country. It was one of the busiest days of the year for tornadoes, with at least 19 reported. Most of them were in Colorado, but there were a few others in Iowa, Kansas and Utah.

Luckily, most of the tornadoes were in open country and caused relatively little damage.

Today, most of the severe weather, including some risk of tornadoes, heads mostly to central and western Kansas and parts of Oklahoma. Minnesota looks like it will have some strong storms today, too.

The always entertaining and expert photojournalist/stormchaser Pecos Hank captured some of the tornadoes in Colorado Monday, including two that were spinning simultaneously:

Ellicott City Double Flood Nightmare: Perhaps Climate Change, But Lots Of Other Factors

Aftermath of Sunday's Ellicott City, Maryland on Sunday.

As I noted yesterday, Ellicott City, Maryland, a charming, historic community not far from Baltimore, on Sunday suffered its second devastating, extreme flood in less than two years.

Raging water tore through the city's downtown, gutting buildings, sending cars careering down through the torrents. One person is missing, and once again, Ellicott City is a terrible disaster zone.

If anything, Sunday's flood was worse than the one in July, 2016. Water reported rose somewhat higher than it did in 2016, nearly reaching the second floor of some buildings. Adjacent Cantonsville reported 9.71 inches of rain Sunday, nearly twice the amount that should have fallen in the entire month of May, says Accuweather. 

Accuweather also reports that the Patapsco River near Catonsville rose above 17.8 feet in less than two hours, setting an all-time record at that spot.

CLIMATE CHANGE?

Floodwaters crash through Ellicott City, Maryland on Sunday

We're often told that climate change is bringing about more, and more frequent weather extremes. Is climate change to blame for Ellicott City's double nightmare in 2016 an 2018?

It might be one factor, but there are surely other things going on as well. And most of those other things have nothing to do with global warming.

But I will start with the climate change question. It's impossible, or at least nearly so, to blame one isolated weather event, like Sunday's Ellicott City disaster, on climate change. The only thing we can say is the extreme flood is consistent with climate change.

Here's why we can say that: A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor than a cooler one. For every degree of warming, the amount of water vapor the air can hold goes up by roughly 7 percent, says the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.

That extra water vapor makes the potential for downpours greater, and can make those downpours more intense than they otherwise would be.

Extreme downpours are already becoming more common because of this added atmospheric moisture. The 2014 National Climate Assessment says that between 1958 and 2012, the number of extreme rainfall events increased by 71 percent in the Northeast, 37 percent in the Midwest and 27 percent in the Southeast.

Devastation from Sunday's flood in Ellicott City, Maryland 

Ellicott City on Sunday was certainly an extreme rainfall event. Which means it's possible that the downpour there was worse than it otherwise would have been without climate change.

Both the rainfall rates in 2016 and 2018 are considered once in 1,000 year events, so that's something to note.

A note on that: There's some dispute as to whether either flood was a 1,000 - year event. Slight changes mean big differences in the ratings. According to the Baltimore Sun, some meteorologists consider the 2016 flood a one in 75 year event in terms of rainfall, and Sunday's storm a one in 200 year event.  

That said, there have always been extreme rainfalls, with or without climate change, so the Ellicott city downpour was at least partly dumb bad luck.

OTHER FACTORS

As I noted, there are other very big factors that contributed to Ellicott City's flood, both on Sunday and going back through history. These factors have nothing to do with climate change.

Downtown Ellicott City is in a lousy place. It's along a river, and if flanked by steep hillsides. During heavy downpours, water sweeps down these hills, and has nowhere to go but into the river that goes through downtown Ellicott City. If the river goes over its banks, the city floods. Part of the Main Street in Ellicott City is a fairly steep hill, so the water rushes through.

Ellicott City has been through devastating floods frequently - in 1768, 1817, 1847, 1868, 1901, 1917, 1923, 1952, 1952, 1972, 1975, 1989, 2011, 2016 and now 2018. They shouldn't have built Ellicott City where it is. (However, the 2016 and 2018 floods were the worst, or nearly the worst of the bunch.)

The population in and around Ellicott City has gone up tremendously in recent decades. Undeveloped land consists of fields and forests,  and heavy rains can partly soak into those areas, minimizing the amount of runoff headed toward Ellicott City.

Now, there are so many more parking lots, streets, roofs and other impermeable surfaces than there once was. Which means every time it rains, there's more runoff than there used to be. Which means nine inches of rain in one afternoon would create a worse flood in 2018 than the same storm would have caused 100 years ago.

Ellicott City had barely recovered from the 2016 flood. FEMA had just announced earlier this month that the community had gotten a $1 million flood mitigation grant, which we now learned came too late.

Everybody in Ellicott City must be terribly demoralized today. I do hope the city can recover, and I also encourage local, state and federal governments to find ways to minimize the inevitable future floods there.

BREAKING: Ellicott City, Pretty Maryland Town, Being Devastated Now For 2nd Time In 2 Years

Water approaching second floors of downtown Ellicott City, Maryland
today. The second devastating flash flood there in 2 years. 

Two years ago, Ellicott City, a very pretty, historic city in Maryland, was devastated by an enormous flash flood. 

The gorgeous downtown was destroyed, and the city had just now gotten back on its feet.

Tragically, the exact same thing seems to be happening again this afternoon.

A flash flood emergency has been declared there, and this new video just out of Ellicott City looks just as bad as the last one. If not worse.

The Baltimore Sun reports that water has reached the second floor of Portalli's Italian Restaurant, which didn't happen last time. (Portalli's was the source of many of the dramatic videos from the last flood.)  

Downtown Ellicott City, Maryland today 

There have been several water rescues. Trucks and cars are zipping down the main drag, pushed by the floodwaters.

Downstream from downtown, people are reporting cars and pieces of buildings floating by in the raging river.

Severe flash flooding is hitting surrounding areas, too.



Very sad. Here's the video:

Active Weather Memorial Day Weekend Unfolding Nationwide

Subtropical Storm Alberto is still disorganized in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. However, thunderstorms are getting
more concentrated in the storm northwest of Cuba,
which means it's more organized than yesteray. 

There's quite a lot of weather excitement going on across the nation this Memorial Day weekend.

Some people are girding for storms, even a tropical storm. Other areas are flooding, and yet others are getting blasted by mid-summer, record heat. At least the sun is out in those hot locations.

I'll start with the biggest news first:

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO

Alberto was looking somewhat more organized in the Gulf of Mexico this morning as it heads toward landfall along the Florida Panhandle sometime on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are still only 50 mph, and they'll only strengthen a little more before landfall. But as I noted yesterday, the wind isn't the main worry from this thing anyway. It's the flooding.

First, along the coast in the Florida Panhandle, a storm surge of two to four feet will put some coastal streets and buildings under water. Worse, as the storm comes in, the downpours will be fierce. That's especially true around northwestern Florida, southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Four to eight inches of rain is likely in this zone, with locally higher amounts. It has already been raining in some of these areas quite a bit lately, so that enhances the flooding potential.

The storm, or its remnants, are expected to head up through the Midwest during the week, ending up in Michigan or thereabouts Thursday and near Toronto, Canada by Friday.

A large, severe thunderstorm at sunset in Houston, Texas
Saturday evening. Photo by Christopher Ramirez. Severe
storms are possible in the U.S. High Plains today. 

Alberto, or ex-Alberto, will carry a swath of heavy downpours with it all the way to Ontario, though by the time it gets that far north, I don't think it will cause that much flooding. It's punch will almost certainly be diminished by then.

OTHER FLOODING

Alberto isn't the only thing that's creating flooding in the nation. Slow moving weather fronts in the East are also causing high water problems, or at least the potential for it in the East.

Today, a cold front that drifted down from New England stalled around New Jersey, unleashing downpours there. Up to five inches of rain had fallen in New Jersey by mid-morning, and it was still coming down. Flash flood and flood warnings are up for much of that state.

Flash flood watches extend down to parts of Maryland, Delaware, Washington DC and Virginia. That stalled front up in New Jersey could easily contribute to torrential thunderstorms in these areas this afternoon. It's been raining an awful lot in the Mid-Atlantic this month, so it won't take much to create high water.

Tropical moisture streaming north, in part because of Alberto, is streaming into the Carolinas, so flash flood watches are in effect there, too. 

Elsewhere, parts of Wyoming and extreme western South Dakota are also under flash flood watches because of expected slow moving, and potentially severe thunderstorms later today. I suspect the heavy rains might extend into North Dakota later this week, possibly causing flooding problems there, too.

SEVERE STORMS

Severe storms (in yellow) associated with Florida with
Alberto and in the High Plains as a cold front
approaches record heat. 

Scattered dangerous thunderstorms are likely in the western High Plains from Wyoming and South Dakota, down into western Kansas, eastern Colorado, western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle.  

A few supercells might spin off a tornado or two today, but the main threats are giant hailstones, strong winds and flash floods with these storms.

Tomorrow, as a cold front starts to impinge on record heat in the Upper Plains and Midwest (I'll get to the heat in a minute.) severe storms are expected to break out in much of the northern and central Plains. 

RECORD HEAT

A big early season heat wave is baking a large area from Texas all the way up through the Plains and into the Midwest, including the cities of Minneapolis, Chicago, St. Louis, Sioux Falls, Des Moines, Omaha and Wichita.

I'm at my temporary headquarters in Yankton, South Dakota, and I can testify it's HOT!  We're under a heat advisory here, and it could be 100 degrees this afternoon. It was 97 degrees here yesterday.

Several places in this region have a decent shot of reaching 100 degrees, which is particularly rare in May. It did make it to 100 degrees in Omaha, Nebraska yesterday.

This is among the strongest and longest lasting heat waves on record in the Upper Midwest. Although it will cool off some after Monday, it will stay much warmer than normal.

NO DRAMA VERMONT

Back in Vermont, there are no extremes this weekend like in so much of the rest of the nation. That cold front which is contributing to the flooding in New Jersey slipped through Vermont yesterday with some clouds and showers.

It's cool north of that front today in Vermont, but rain - if any - will be spotty and light today. It'll be cool-ish, especially east of the Green Mountains today.

Showers will be around here and there in Vermont on Monday, Memorial Day. But there will also be some sun, and it will be seasonably warm.

Not perfect weather for the Memorial Day weekend, but the no drama aspect of the weather is certainly welcome.

Update On Alberto: Flood Risk Rising In Southeast

Subtropical Storm Alberto looks like a disorganized
mess of thunderstorms in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Still, it is threatening to cause a lot of flooding
in the southeastern United States in the coming days. 

Subtropical Storm Alberto continues to splatter around the Gulf of Mexico.

It's disorganized and struggling against strong upper level winds and dry air trying to intrude on the system, but it still poses quite a danger to the eastern Gulf Coast.

Flooding is the main worry from this storm as it nears the Gulf Coast around Alabama or the Florida panhandle around Monday.

Alberto is being called a subtropical storm because it has characteristics of both a tropical storm and a regular old storm system. It looks like Alberto will transition to a fully tropical storm over the next couple of days.

But these semantics don't really matter in terms of the impacts from this storm. The storm's winds will probably increase from the current 40 mph sustained to perhaps near 65 mph as it approaches the coast Monday.

However, the wind isn't the big worry here. As noted, flooding is going to be a big factor. Six to 12 inches of rain, with locally more, will come down with Alberto, making the flooding inevitable.

What makes this worse is that as Alberto approaches and then crosses the coast, it will slow down, and linger for a few days. (A high pressure system that is causing a record heat wave in parts of teh Plains and Midwest is slowing Alberto's forward progress.) That prolongs the rainfall, causing precipitation totals to rise and increase the risk of flooding.

The remnants of Alberto will likely cause local flooding in many areas of the East through next week as it slowly lifts toward the north and east, possibly reaching New England by the end of next week.

Do You Still Like Winter? You Should Have Been In Newfoundland This Week

A lovely view of Gander, Newfoundland on Thursday.

Summery weather has engulfed most of the United States. Even in New England, it's going to be in the 80s today, and relatively mild all through the holiday weekend.

There are still probably a (very) few of you out there who miss winter, I know.

The Killington Ski Resort is finally closing down for the season Saturday so hitting the slopes is soon out of the question.

But winter manages to hang on in a few spots, and if you were up in northern New Brunswick and especially Newfoundland, you had a nice blast of winter this week.

Ground zero was Gander, Newfoundland. Now, that city is not known for its tropical beaches and balmy sunshine. Still, what they got this week was quite a blow.  Check out the video at the bottom of this post.

Springtime on an outdoor deck this past week in Gander, Newfoundland.

Thirteen inches of snow fell on Gander on Thursday, which is a lot, even for them. This was the city's second largest snowstorm on record for May, and the biggest for so late in the season. It was also the biggest snowstorm in Gander this, um, winter.

Normally this time of year, high tempertures in Gander in the mid to upper 50s with lows in the upper 30s. Not balmy, but not frigid either.

Instead of buying outdoor grills and deck chairs, people in Gander scrambled for snow tires and snow shovels, which of course aren't in stock this time of year.

Schools shut down because of the snow, and businesses opened late because of snow-clogged streets.

Northern New Brunswick, really not that far from Maine, got snow, too. In New Brunswick, trees were already starting to leaf out when the snow hit. Bathhurst, New Brunswick picked up 2.5 inches of new snow.

The forecast for Gander and the rest of Newfoundland and environs still isn't great. Environment Canada says high temperatures in Gander today are forecast to be only around 40 and in the upper 30s on Saturday. More light snow might come down tonight. Ouch!

It's been a nasty weather pattern in far eastern Canada lately anyway. Record low temperatures occurred in parts of northern Quebec and western Labrador last week.

Meanwhile, in Vermont, there's still skiing at Killington Resort, although
they'll close down for the season on Saturday. 

This weather pattern has contributed to some really nice May weather in Vermont and the rest of northern New England.

The dip in the jet stream that has caused the ugly spring weather up in northeastern Canada has suppressed persistent clouds and rain to the south over the Mid-Atlantic states.  

Vermont is also too far south to get the brunt of the cold air from Canada, so temperatures have been either close to normal, or warmer than normal under the frequent May sunshine.

The temperature in May so far is averaging about five degrees warmer than normal in Burlington so far this month. Caribou, Maine, closer to the cold Canadian air, is only running less than a degree above normal this month.

Back up in Gander, there is still a bit of hope for spring. Temperatures should rise to near normal up there toward the middle of next week.

Here's a video of Gander on May 24. Looks like a nasty January day in Vermont, but nope, May 24:

Time For A Deeper Dive Into Two Tropical Storm Threats

This map from the Weather Channel depicts insane amunts of rain
from Cyclone Mekunu in Oman and Yemen. In an area that gets
normally gets roughly five inches of year, up to a foot and a half
could come down in just a couple days. 

There are two odd threats looming in the tropical storm department:

A powerful storm is threatening to bring disaster upon Oman and Yemen this week, and a messy tropical system threatens flooding in the southeastern United States early next week.

Let's go overseas first, where the bigger of the two problems is looming.

CYCLONE MEKUNU

As of last night, Cyclone Mekunu was a borderline Category 1/Category 2 hurricane. (They're called cyclones where this one is, but a hurricane and a cyclone are the same thing.) Sustained winds are in the dangerous 90 to 95 mph range.

Mekong could easily end up becoming the strongest tropical cyclone on record to hit the Arabian Peninsula when it makes landfall near the Yemen-Oman border, says the India Meteorological Department.

According to Bob Henson in the Category 6 weather blog, Mekunu is worrying for two principal reasons: It's going to hit land at a nearly perpendicular angle, which would increase the winds, waves and storm surge in Oman.

It's also likely hitting near a populated area: The city of Salalah, Oman, population about 340,000, can expect a nasty storm surge and major flood.

The normally arid area where Mekunu is expected to hit will probably get eight to 16 inches of rain, with more in the nearby mountains. This in an area that normally gets just roughly five inches of rain per year. You can imagine, then, how destructive the floods will be with a storm that brings two year's worth of rain in a day or two.

This will be a major, deadly disaster, folks.

WANNABE TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO

A big area of the Southeast can expect flooding rains from a
tropical system to form in the Gulf of Mexico in the coming days
Areas in red and oranage at this point look to be at most risk.

It looks almost certain now that some sort of tropical system will affect the eastern or central Gulf Coast of the United States in the coming days.

What exactly that will be is still open to question, but dangerous flooding is becoming an increasing risk.

That weather disturbance that was near Belize the other day has moved north to near the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico and will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico in the next day or two.

Normally, this time of year, upper level winds are too strong in the Gulf of Mexico to support a tropical system.

These upper level winds rip apart thunderstorms that would form into a tropical storm, so they don't happen. Over the next few days, those upper level winds over the Gulf aren't all that strong, so this thing has the potential to develop.

It'll probably form into a tropical or subtropical depression in the coming days. (A subtropical system has characteristics of both a tropical storm and a regular old storm system.) There's a chance this storm could become strong enough to be declared a tropical storm, with sustained winds of 39 mph.

If it achieves tropical storm status, it will be named Alberto.

Whether or not this thing becomes a tropical storm, it will bring boatloads of moisture into the southeastern United States, so flooding is a real concern in that part of the country. It doesn't help that parts of the area that are in for a soaking from Wannabe Alberto are already quite wet from previous rains, so this could be a real troublemaker.

Wannabe Alberto will never become one of those nice pinwheel shaped tropical systems or hurricanes that you often see in satellite photos. It'll be a messy mass of clouds and downpours that will slowly invade the Southeast.

The Atlantic tropical storm season officially begins on June 1, so this might form before then. But tropical systems sometimes form before the "official" start of the hurricane season. Just because this is early doesn't necessarily mean the overall hurricane season will be especially nasty, like last year.

It's too soon to tell how bad the upcoming hurricane season will be, but here's one hopeful sign: Water temperatures in the area of the Atlantic where the most powerful hurricanes tend to form in August and September are cooler than average. If this state of affairs continues, that could cut down on hurricanes since these things need warm water to thrive. And the warmer the better, as far as hurricanes are concerned.

Then again, the National Hurricane Center today issued a forecast calling for a near normal to busier than normal hurricane season. We shall see!

Jump To Mid-Summer: Summer Heat, Tropical Trouble, Sluggish Thunderstorms

A pleasant, summery, humid morning today on the golf course behind my
mother-in-law's house in Yankton, South Dakota. Summer heat
has arrived early in this neck of the woods. 

The nation's weather has taken a total jump from spring to what we would expect in mid-summer. And it's not even Memorial Day yet.

Parts of the nation - even some northern areas - are or are about to endure days of near 90 degree heat.

There's a messy tropical system that might affect the Gulf Coast states - the kind that usually waits at least until July to develop.

And there are thunderstorms around. As I mentioned yesterday, the type of thunderstorms that seem to be scattered around the nation are typical of mid-summer: A few severe ones pop up, but they're not parts of big massive storm systems.

These thunderstorms are sluggish, part of weak weather systems, and have the potential to unleash heavy rains and local flash flooding.

Like I said, typical July in the United States.

Oh sure, there are cool pockets. There's a frost advisory tonight in northeastern Maine, for example. In Vermont, there will be probably be one hot day on Friday when temperatures will get into the 80s, but otherwise temperatures will generally be in the seasonable low 70s over the next several days.

At my temporary spring headquarters in Yankton, South Dakota, it's humid, like July. Starting today and going through next Monday, daily high temperatures will approach or exceed 90 degrees.  (Normal high temperatures this time of year in Yankton are in the low to mid 70s.)

Some of the northern and central Plains States - mostly the Dakotas, parts of Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska, could have record highs over the next few days.

This same area was ground zero for the intense cold that afflicted much of the nation in April. This area had the coldest April on record, now it's suddenly full-blown summer in May in the northern Plains.

Then there's that tropical trouble.  There's a weather disturbance near Belize that could turn into a very early season tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico later in the week or toward the weekend. Whether or not it actually develops is open to question, but regardless, it threatens flooding rains for parts of the Deep South this weekend.

The early arrival of summer doesn't mean it's going to stick around. Who knows? June could be cool, for all we know. It's really impossible to tell at this point if the United States summer will be unusually hot or not.

However, over the course of the next week or two, the general consensus is almost all of the nation will be warmer than normal. 

Stay tuned.

Late May Often Terrible, Dangerous Time For Tornadoe. Not This Year

A deadly EF-5 tornado in Moore, Oklahoma, May, 20, 2013. This was
the most recent  EF-5 tornado recorded in the United States.

As I do every year for about a week to 10 days, I've moved myself and this here blog thingy out to the lovely little city of Yankton, South Dakota. The main reason to do this is to visit my outlaws, er, I mean inlaws.

Southeastern South Dakota is also a decent vantage point this time of year to observe spring thunderstorms. And they're often severe. And there's sometimes tornadoes here and there.

That might be the case this year, but I'm not counting on it. Which is a good thing. Tornadoes are dangerous, after all, and like I said, Yankton is lovely, and I'd hate to see any damage here.

As I think I've mentioned before, this remains a slow severe weather season, with a definite dearth of tornadoes, notwithstanding the nine tornadoes that struck the Northeast last week,

Often, during the final 10 days of May, there are very, very often dozens of tornadoes spinning out of the supercells and storm complexes that typically cross the nation this time of year. There were pockets of severe storms yesterday, but nothing spectacular.

Devastation from an EF-5 tornado in Parkersburg, Iowa in 2008

One weak tornado was reported Monday in Colorado, and it caused no damage. Some places had strong winds and hail, particularly in Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio and North Carolina.

Today and tonight, there will be new pockets of severe storms, especially in and near eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania. Also, there might be some, especially tonight, in parts of the northern and central Plains, including here in Yankton.

But the tornado threat is very low, and these patches of severe storms won't be nearly as extensive as they often are this time of year. The rest of the week also looks quiet.

This is a huge contrast to many late Mays. The devastating Moore, Oklahoma EF-5 tornado, for instance, came on May 20, 2013. And thirteen days later, an immense 2.6 mile wide tornado in El Reno, Oklahoma killed storm chasers trapped in its path.

On May 29-31, 2004, a total of 170 tornadoes killed five people and injured 150 people in 16 states.

On May 23, 2008, 80 tornadoes touched down in just Kansas alone, and two days later a huge EF-5 tornado wiped out much of the city of Parkersburg, Iowa. 

Stunned survivors after the EF-5 tornado in Joplin, Missouri, May 22, 2011.

On May 31, 1985  30 tornadoes touched down, mostly in Ohio and Pennsylvania. This included an EF-5 tornado, the strongest you can get, that pretty much wiped out Wheatland, Pennsylvania. (the Moore tornado was EF-5, too.)

We also can't forget the EF-5 tornado that devastated Joplin, Missouri on May 22, 2011, that killed 161 people.

Notice I'm mentioning all these EF-5 tornadoes that often come this time of year. These are the ones that make most of the tornado news every spring or summer. They're rare. The United States has had only 59 of them since 1950. But EF-5's cause the most damage and are the most deadly. These are the worst tornadoes you can get, with winds of over 200 mph.

There's a couple videos of EF-5 tornadoes at the bottom of this post to give you an idea of how scary they are.

The nation, mercifully is now in one of the longest streaks in history in which no EF-5 tornadoes touched down The last EF-5 tornado the nation endured was that Moore twister in 2013. That's five years without such a tornado. That's the second longest period of time we've gone through without such a strong tornado since 1950. (There were no EF-5 tornadoes in the eight year span between May 3, 1999 and May 4, 2007.)

Regular tornadoes are also in relatively short supply this spring. So far this May,  there have been 52 confirmed tornadoes in the United States. During the entire month of May, there's typically more than 200 tornadoes in the U.S.

Greensburg, Kansas was destroyed by an EF-5 tornado in 2007

So why has this May been so benign in terms of tornadoes and other severe weather?

And why has each year since 2012 been relatively calm in the tornado department? Unlike many climate trends, I don't think we can clearly pin climate change on this fortunate turn of events.

It's probably just dumb luck. This year, the first part of spring was dominated by blasts of Arctic air that suppressed the warm, humid air needed for tornadoes well to the south. So there was not much severe weather back in April.

In late April and early May, the weather pattern shifted dramatically and abruptly toward a summer pattern. The jet stream, which energizes storm systems, usually comes across the middle of the country this time of year, helping spawn severe weather outbreaks.

This year, the jet stream shifted far north, mostly over southern Canada or the extreme northern United States where it usually resides over the summer.  That means there's not as much energy to produce big storm systems.  Which means we just have relatively small weather disturbances that produce modest outbreaks of severe storms.

You can still get a lot of severe weather in June, and in the northern United States in July and August, so we're not out of the woods.

But in a time period over the past five years in which the United States has endured incredibly severe wildfires, deadly floods, severe winter storms and, last year, devastating hurricanes, the general lack of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms is a gift.

Here's a video of the Moore, Oklahoma tornado on May 20, 2013 as it rapidly intensified from something small to an EF-5 monster:



Famous surveillance video of the EF-5 tornado blowing away a house in Parkersburg, Iowa
back in 2008:



Storm chaser Jeff Piotrowski and his companion go from excitement to terror to horror as they watch an EF-5 tornado destroy much of Joplin, Missouri.

Like Somalia Needed This: Tropical Storm Causes Death, Destruction

Tropical Storm Sagar hit near Djibouti, on the far western end of
the Gulf of Aden. 

A terrible tropical storm struck Somalia over the weekend, killing at least 16 people and causing widespread destruction.  

Tropical Storm Sagar was reported the strongest tropical storm on record in Somalia. It packed 60 mph winds and heavy rain.

Here in the United States and other developed countries, a storm with 60 mph winds and downpours would cause relatively light damage. Plus, we're used to storms of that caliber.

But poverty-ridden, dry Somalia does not normally get anything near anything like Sagar. This storm made landfall further west than any tropical storm in 52 years or record keeping on the northern Indian Ocean basin, according to the Category 6 blog. 

Tropical Storm Sagar caused flooding in Mogadishu, Somalia.
Photo by Feisal Omar/Reuters 

The storm was able to travel westward threading the needle between Yemen and Somalia in the Gulf of Aden before moving inland over flat, arid areas of far western Somalia.

What's worse, unusual rains hit Somalia in April - causing a lot of damage to agriculture and infrastructure. The April rains also primed the pump for even worse flooding.

Somalia remains an unstable country, with the terrorist group al-Shabab continues to spread terror and misery across that nation. So a tropical cyclone didn't help a lot.

Meanwhile, forecasters say another dangerous tropical storm is threatening to develop and could hit in or near Oman later in the week. It could attain hurricane strength, and also could cause very destructive flash floods in Oman and eastern Yemen later in the week.

Hail And East Coast Storms Seem To Be The Trend This Spring. Videos

Not a snowstorm. This is a remarkable hail storm in
Parker, Colorado earlier this month. 

So far this spring, the traditional mega-tornadoes in the Middle and the South of the nation have been blessedly absent.

It's been a slower than average tornado season. Oklahoma, normally ground zero for tornado destruction has had only a few twisters, none of them particularly destructive.

It seems this spring, the trend has been both big huge hail storms and tornadoes in odd places, like the Northeast.

The confirmed tornado count from last Tuesday's outbreak in the Northeast is up to nine. On May 4, New Hampshire had its longest tracked tornado in its history.

Here in Vermont, no tornadoes so far this year, but we had our share of severe weather back on May 4 with a couple of supercells, and some remarkably destructive microbursts and downbursts in a few locations.

Following is a few videos of this spring's severe weather trends

 Imagine dealing with hail so deep you have to shovel the driveway on a sunny, warm spring day:



Here's one news report showing the hail, and the plows that were out because of how deep it was.



Here's another  news report in the aftermath of the Colorado hail:



Going back to last week, more footage is emerging from the unusually large severe weather outbreak in the Northeast last week. Here's a video of the challenges of driving through either a tornado or microburst in Southbury, Connecticut:



Beacon Falls, Connecticut got an EF-1 tornado. Not sure if this video was taken inside the tornado, or the supercell thunderstorm's microburst. Still dramatic though. And I know that type of deck furniture in the foreground. It's fairly heavy and shouldn't move around in the wind, but...

Hot April, But Not Here, Mid-Atlantic Flooding

April was hot across most of the world, but look at that cold
spot over North America

A few tidbits today in the world of weather and climate news:

HOT APRIL, EXCEPT FOR US

For many of us in the United States from Montana to New England south to the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic States, we want to forget April.

It was uncharacteristically cold and snowy, and some places in the northern Plains had their coldest April on record.

Our fortunes have gloriously reversed, and much of the nation is having an unusually warm May.

That April cold we had in the United States and southern Canada was an exception: The world as a whole had its third hottest April on record. Pretty much the only cold spot was here.

Only 2016 and 2017 had warmer April, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.  Also, April marked the 400th consecutive month of warmer than normal temperatures on Earth.

If you were born after December, 1984, you've never experienced a month when the world as a whole was cooler than average.

It's interesting that April was the third warmest, as things perhaps should have cooled off a bit more by now after the El Nino of 2016 and early 2017, El Ninos tend to make the Earth a bit warmer, regardless of global warming trends.

MID-ATLANTIC FLOODING

While the weather has been nice enough here up north in Vermont, it has been anything but as you head south. The rain has been persistent for a week in the Mid-Atlantic States and it's still coming down. Much of Maryland and Virginia have had at least three inches of rain in the past few days, and up to five inches more might fall in the next two or three days in some areas.

The Potomac River is expected to hit flood stage in and near Washington DC and upstream from there. At last report, some of the worst flooding is going on through a swath of east-central Virginia, and in southeastern Maryland.

German Tornado Yields Scary Footage; Cleanup In U.S. Continues

A large tornado struck Germany this week

It's not only the northeastern United States that have been dealing with unusual severe storms and tornadoes lately.

A tornado touched down in western Germany this week, injuring two people, severely damaging several houses and causing other destruction. Tornadoes sometimes hit this part of Germany, but this one was more destructive than usual.

There's quite a video at the bottom of this post.

Here in the United States, seven tornadoes have been confirmed so far in New York, Connecticut and Pennsylvania, and other towns were trashed by equally destructive straight line winds, sometimes up to 100 mph. Five people have also been confirmed dead.

Although there are no severe storms or tornadoes expected along the East Coast today, heavy rain is an increasing problem. Flood warnings and watches are up for parts of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware. Several inches of rain are expected there over the next few days. That's falling on land saturated by other downpours over the past week or two there.

Back in Germany, a viral video shows the viewpoint of a motorist who stopped behind a truck as the tornado approached, and then got caught in the twister. I'm amazed the car and the truck stayed on the road, and the tree in the video generally stayed intact.  The second part of the video is a view from inside a house.

I think Germans should learn some tornado safety tips from the United States: Don't drive into tornadoes, and don't hang out near windows when a tornado comes through.

Here's that video:

Northeast Severe Storm/Tornado Outbreak Was Almost Oklahoma Style

Ominous storm clouds gather over New York City on Tuesday. The storms
caused damage in New York City, and especially further north
in Westchester County.

On Tuesday, we had the spectacle of seeing classic Oklahoma style supercell thunderstorms strike places that aren't exactly tornado alley - like New York, Connecticut and Pennsylvania.

This really was one of the more spectacular severe weather outbreaks I've seen in the Northeast in recent years. Some videos of the wild weather are at the bottom of this post.

So far, I've heard one or two reports of confirmed tornadoes Tuesday in the Northeast, but I believe that number will rise as National Weather Service investigators pick through areas of particularly heavy damage to see if the destruction was caused by tornadoes, or straight-line winds.

Though most of the damage will end up being from intense gusts, a few places will surely had tornadoes.

There were certainly several supercell thunderstorms in which radar indicated possible tornadoes. At least four deaths have been reported from these big storms, all from trees falling on occupied cars.

A flash flood emergency was declared in Frederick, Maryland (a lovely city where I have relatives). It's got a great downtown with beautiful old buildings, and, sadly, that downtown was definitely affected by the flooding.

The storms were strong enough to create something called a meteotsunami along parts of the East Coast. Tsunamis - often giant surges of water invading coastlines are caused by earthquakes. Meteotsunamis are created by storms and air pressure changes.

It's not as if meteotsunamis are super destructive - they usually just cause rather modest waves and flooding along shorelines, and that was the case Tuesday. In places like coastal New Jersey, wind patterns and abrupt air pressure changes associated with the band of severe storms caused some minor surges and flooding.

Some of the storm damage reports are, again, pretty incredible considering the location. Winds gusted to 78 mph in Beacon, New York. Several roofs were damaged or at least partly blown off buildings in Newburgh, New York. A roof blew off a Dunkin Donuts in Westchester County, New York and another roof blew off a nursery school in Passaic, New Jersey.

Storms sent this large tree crashing through a house in Cheshire, CT

The storms blasted into New York City, turning the evening commute into a nightmare because so many train tracks were blocked by fallen trees.

 At 133rd Street and Broadway in Manhattan, scaffolding and construction debris, including corrugated metal blew down, injuring several people.

Hail the size of tennis balls hit some towns in the Hudson Valley and southwestern New England.

In Granby, Connecticut, the hail was big enough to smash house windows and cars traveling on the town's streets and nearby highways.

Here in Vermont, we dodged another bullet. It looks like there was some strong-ish thunderstorms along the Massachusetts border but there was no major damage.

It had been getting dry in Vermont, and the rains that came Tuesday were heavier than I had expected, which is a good thing. While some places in the state missed out, other towns got a good half inch of rain, which was nice.

Severe thunderstorms are over in the Northeast, but some heavy rain and the risk of flooding is still going to be a problem in parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, especially in already soggy places like Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey.

Here's a tornado-warned storm slamming Saugerties, New York:



Lots of storm damage along the Merritt Parkway in Connecticut. Note the cars stuck on the highway between fallen trees.



Definite rotation Tuesday in Barkhamsted, Connecticut.  Judging from the video, I don't think this one touched down. At least when this video was shot:



Downtown flooded as torrential rain and hail falls in Frederick Maryland:

Trump And The Tornado Warning, New Hampshire Twister, More Severe Stuff Today

People at Dulles Airport in Virginia, near Washington DC, were ordered
into an underground train tunnel during a tornado warning Monday. No
tornado struck the airport, but a severe thunderstorm did.

UPDATE: 1 p.m. TUESDAY

A tornado watch  has been issued for a good chunk of the northeastern United States, including the southern two counties in Vermont

This is the second time within half a month in which at least part of Vermont has been under a tornado watch. That's a pretty unusual situation.

I still think the biggest threat from the severe storms will be strong straight line winds and hail.

Tornadoes are certainly possible in the tornado watch area, though. Tornado warnings were already appearing in northeastern Pennsylvania as of early afternoon. I think the greatest threat for tornadoes are in New York's Hudson Valley from Albany to just north of New York City. Also, western Massachusetts and western Connecticut have a decent threat of a tornado or two.

Already, isolated thunderstorms ahead of the main band were firing in eastern New York and headed toward New England. The ones out ahead of the main band have the biggest threat of firing up tornadoes, but the main band could produce a couple, too.

The storms will probably congeal into a nasty squall line later with a terrible wind threat, with gusts to 80 mph possible in spots.

Further north in Vermont, we needed the rain and it was heavier than expected this morning, which is a good thing. There's still a threat of some thunderstorms in central Vermont today, but I don't think they will be severe.

Rain will taper off in the north later today.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

A band of severe thunderstorms roared through parts of the Middle Atlantic states Monday (and in many areas in the central Plains) prompting a variety of severe weather alerts and causing a number of reports of damage. 

President Trump even got caught up in the middle of it.

TRUMP MOTORCADE BLASTED

Trump had visited his wife, Melania in the hospital and was headed back to the White House when the storms hit. He probably shouldn't have been out there, as part of his motorcade route took him through a zone that was under a tornado warning. 

I'm not sure why the Secret Service didn't make Trump wait it out at the hospital or some other sturdy building. So far, there are no reports that a tornado actually touched down, but the motorcade was battered by high winds, torrential rains and street flooding.

NEW HAMPSHIRE TORNADO

Apparent tornado damage in Warner, New Hampshire on May 4.

In other news, it turns out a long-tracked tornado struck New Hampshire on May 4.

You remember that Friday, when Vermont was under a tornado watch and New Hampshire was under a severe thunderstorm watch.

Vermont had lots and lots of severe thunderstorms that day, but no reports of tornadoes. It was New Hampshire that got it. (Vermont almost did with this one.)

The National Weather Service office in Gray, Maine said the tornado touched down in Charlestown, New Hampshire, which is just across the Connecticut River from Springfield and Rockingham, Vermont.

The twister traveled 35 miles in an east-northeasterly direction to the town of Webster. That's an awfully long tracked tornado, especially for New Hampshire. Most tornadoes, especially in New England, are on the ground for a only a few miles at most. This tornado caused the most damage in Warner, New Hampshire, where winds associated with the storm were estimated at up to 100 mph.

It was also the second earliest date in the year that a tornado has struck New Hampshire.

The tornado was an EF1. The National Weather Service will release a more detailed report on the twister today

NEW ENGLAND SEVERE WEATHER TODAY

There's a risk of severe thunderstorms today, especially in the
yellow and orange areas of this map. 

Today, there's actually the slight risk of a tornado again today, this time in southwestern New England, the lower Hudson Valley of New York and parts of northeastern Pennsylvania.

A cold front was approaching New England this morning.

Up here in northern Vermont, the clouds and rain will arrive before the air can destabilize, so just expect a bunch of needed showers, with maybe a rumble of thunder this morning and the first half of the afternoon

Once you get into southern Vermont, there could easily be some more rambuctious thunderstorms, with lightning and downpours, but I don't think the storms will be severe, except maybe near the Massachusetts border.

But the places I mentioned above will get some sunshine ahead of the cold front to destabilize the air. A weather disturbance approaching from the west in tandem with the cold front will act to stir the pot even more.

So there's a good chance of severe storms in cities like Danbury and Hartford, Connecticut, Springfield, Massachusetts and Scranton, Pennsylvania. There's a slightly lesser but still real chance o severe storms in the New York City metro area and parts of heavily populated New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and Maryland