Atlantic Hurricane Season Has Been Mercifully Quiet, But..... Also, Another Vermont Heat Record

This map issued Tuesday shows where there are chances of
tropical storm development between now and September 5
Blue areas are the lowest chances. The warmer the colors,
the higher the chances. Dark red means there's a high
chance of some sort of tropical system. 

During most days in the past two weeks the National Hurricane Center home page has chirped that there were no tropical cyclones expected in the immediate future in the Atlantic Ocean.

That was welcome news after last year. We're now getting into the peak of hurricane season, and unlike last year's devastation, it's been pretty mellow in the Atlantic Ocean.

For so many days in late August, the National Hurricane Center Atlantic Ocean Tropical Outlook kept saying that no tropical activity was expected in the next day or two.

That's a marked contrast to last August, when all those super hurricanes, Harvey, Irma and Maria, were ongoing or about to rev up to cause extreme devastation. It's been a nice August in that respect.

Now, signs are emerging that the Atlantic is waking up, just in time for the true peak of the hurricane season. At this point, nobody is sure what will happen in the next month regarding tropical storms and hurricanes. It seems clear things are about to start forming, but whether they hit, where they hit, and how bad they will be if they do hit is totally an open question.

Computer models are hinting at a fair amount of activity. As Dr. Rick Knabb, the hurricane expert at the Weather Channel tweeted on Thursday: "When models start suggesting tropical cyclone many days in advance in multiple parts of the Atlantic basin, while they might not be right about exactly when and where, it does indicate that the atmosphere is changing and it's about to get busy overall in September."

Factors that were working against the development of hurricanes in the Atlantic are starting to wane.  Water temperatures in a broad area of the Atlantic where many destructive hurricanes form, off the west coast of Africa, had been cooler than normal.

Cooler water inhibits the development of tropical storms. By the way, water temperatures there were above normal last August in September, which partly explains why 2017 was such a destructive hurricane season.

In recent days, that water has warmed up to levels that are close to normal for this time of hear.

Additional, wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and other parts of the Atlantic was stronger than normal and are now subsiding to near normal levels for this time of year. Wind shear consists of strong upper level winds. These strong winds tear tropical storms and hurricanes apart, and prevent new ones from forming.

Strong wind shear is why Hurricane Lane, a dangerous hurricane, abruptly fell apart south of Hawaii last week. Those strong high level winds tore it to shreds.

A few areas are being watched in particular. The Gulf of Mexico over the past few days has been bubbling with numerous thunderstorms. That indicates the air is unstable over the Gulf, and that could, maybe produce a tropical storm.

A tropical wave, which is an area of thunderstorms that doesn't have any kind of real circulation, was over the Lesser Antilles Thursday. That would could develop as it heads to the west or northwest.

Finally, another tropical wave is about to emerge off the west coast of Africa. That is very likely to develop into a tropical storm and threaten the Cabo Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic in the coming days.

We're lucky hurricanes weren't developing in July and August. The weather pattern that brought copious amounts of heat and humidity, plus drenching, flood producing rains along much of the East Coast, would have steered tropical storms right into this area, making the flooding exponentially worse than it was.

It's possible this dangerous weather pattern, which is still sort of, kinda in place, could really re-establish itself, which would put the East Coast in danger. This is purely speculation an NOT a forecast, so don't let me get you into a tizzy. I'll tell if and when it's time to panic. Better yet, the National Weather Service would tell you all this.

ANOTHER HEAT RECORD

Storm "damage" in my yard after a mid-afternoon storm Wednesday.
The storm dropped the temperature from 95 to 84 so I was grateful
for the relief, even though I'll have to remove these branches.

Burlington, Vermont hit another milestone in its record hot summer. The temperature there Wednesday reached 97 degrees, breaking the record high for the date set in 1977.

This would have been the hottest temperature in Burlington for so late in the season if not for a heat wave in September 2002 that brought a temperature of 98 to the Queen City.

Wednesday's  97 is also tied for the hottest temperature of the year in this hot summer.

Other record highs on Wednesday included 95 degrees in Plattsburgh, New York and 76 degrees top Mount Mansfield, Vermont.

There were only a handful of reports of minor damage from borderline severe thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and evening. There reports of trees down near Chazy, New York and in Essex County, Vermont.

An isolated storm at midafternoon came over my place in St. Albans. We went from sun to stormy gusts in the 45 mph range and then sun once again within 10 minutes.  A dead tree fell onto my yard causing no damage. A few small branches came down in St. Albans and Fairfield. No biggie.

If you stepped outside the this morning, you'll notice how refreshingly cool it is. Today and tomorrow will easily be the "coldest" two day stretch of this August. Highs today will only be in the low 70s, and tonight will get down into the 40s, with low 50s closer to Lake Champlain.

Friday looks great, too, with continued low humidity and high temperatures in the 70s. By the way, such weather is normal for this time of year. August, 2018 will definitely go down as the hottest on record.

Enjoy while you can, because the warmth and humidity will return by Sunday and continue into at least the first part of next week. Although it won't be as hot as it's been recently, the humidity will surely be uncomfortable.

One More Day Of Heat, And A Severe Storm Threat To Top It Off

Area in yellow is under a slight risk of severe storms this afternoon
and evening.

UPDATE 10 a.m: Since this was posted, the slight risk of severe thunderstorms has been extended into much of northern Maine.

There is a bit of a possibility of a few supercells, which have the very, very slight risk of spinning off a tornado or two.

As I mention below, this twister risk is very low, but not zero. The main threat continues to be damaging straight-line winds.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

The only part of the country that has more than a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today is far northern New York, Vermont north of Route 2, and the northern tip of New Hampshire.

This "lucky" region stands a somewhat stronger chance of severe storms today.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has this northern border region under a slight chance of severe weather.  That means forecasters think there will be scattered severe storms in this region. Marginal risk means there might just be a couple isolated briefly severe storms.

First we have to get through this incessant heat that is stifling us. Yesterday, the temperature in Burlington reached 92 degrees, the 14th time this year readings have gotten to 90 or above. (The record for the most 90s is 26 in 1949.)

Worse, the humidity yesterday was horrible. With dewpoints in the low 70s, it felt like it was nearly 100 degrees. Today will be no different, with heat advisories up for Champlain Valley and the valleys of southwestern and southeastern Vermont. It'll feel like it's nearly 100 degrees this afternoon, for the second day in a row

Those heat advisories today, by the way, extend from Virginia to Maine, with a more dire excessive heat warning in parts of southern New England. Under the excessive heat warning zone, air temperatures could feel as hot as 110 degrees.

The humidity this summer is what has really killed us. One hint of this is how warm the nights have been, Nights tend to be warmer on humid nights than during periods of when the air is drier. Those warm nights wear us out. In Burlington so far this summer, the low temperature never got below 70 degrees on 17 nights so far.

The persistence of the heat has wilted us, too. From June 29 to August 16, the temperature in Burlington, Vermot got to 80 degrees or more on 47 out of 49 days.

The cold front coming our way will bring temporary relief, but first we have to get through those storms today and the first half of tonight.

Not everyone will get a storm, which is actually too bad because pretty much everybody needs the rain. And some places that get showers or storm will get only light rainfall.

Only a handful of places from the St. Lawrence Valley of New York, across northern Vermont into New Hampshire will get severe, damaging storms.

In this area, there is actually a very, very, very slight, but not zero chance of a tornado. However, the biggest threat from any severe storm that might develop are strong straight line winds. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning and torrential rains are also a definite risk.

If you're outdoors or especially out on the lake today, take shelter at the first sign of threatening weather. Better yet, blow off the outdoor activities until tomorrow, when the weather will be much nicer. And cooler.

We're in the closing days of August, so cooler days are a bit more brisk than they would have been in mid-summer. So as skies gradually clear and the humidity crashes tomorrow, expect afternoon highs only in the low to mid 70s, with some upper 60s along the ridgelines.

After a refreshingly cool Thursday night and a gorgeous Friday, it looks like humidity will return over the weekend, but it won't be as hot as it is today or was yesterday.

Early Vermont Foliage Despite Record Hot Summer (They're Related)

A bit of fall foliage on my St. Albans, Vermont property this afternoon.
At the time I took this photo, the temperature was 91
degrees with a heat index of 99. 

It's gotten past 90 degrees in Vermont today, part of a record hot August, which followed a record hot July.

You'd think trees would want to stay green forever under these conditions, but anyone who's taken even a casual look around is seeing pockets of fall foliage already.

If anything there's more spots of color than usual for late August. That might not be as weird as you think. 

The heat, accompanied by dry conditions in many parts of the region, have stressed trees.

Stressed trees sometimes turn color early. Or the leaves just turn brown and drop off as the soil dries out, as you can see in some areas, like on the ledges on Interstate 89 around Colchester.

It's too soon to tell if this forebodes a weird or muted foliage season, but the danger is there. Very warm early autumns in particular, can screw up foliage.

That, of course is important to Vermont. For decades the Green Mountain State has had the reputation as one of the best places to go when those green mountains turn practically every color but green. Fall foliage has long been a necessary windfall - literally, actually if you consider the windblown, falling leaves of October. It's a big piece of what keeps Vermont's economy afloat.

More than three million tourists annually make a pilgrimage to Vermont each fall to basically watch leaves die.

The weather that sets up our fall foliage season has been weird in Vermont in recent years. Since it involves warmth, I suspect climate change is partly to blame, but I honestly don't have the scientific chops to prove that.

Last year tied for the second hottest September on record, topped by the latest heat wave on record in late September. The unusual heat extended into October, which became the hottest October on record. Dates as late as October 24 had near normal temperatures for July.

The foliage season was very late last year, and muted. In the warmer valleys, some color lasted into the first days of November, which is really weird. If this unusually warm weather continues through September and early October, we'll have another in a series of late foliage seasons.

It's gotten bizarre Tourists were told in the past to visit Vermont between very late September until Columbus Day to see the best foliage. In recent years, it has come later than that.

Last year, I was in a scenic, hilly section of Richmond, Vermont on October 8, an uncomfortably warm, humid afternoon reminiscent of a typical August dog day. The hills were almost entirely green at a time of year they should be just about at peak foliage.

While warm autumns make foliage seasons late, it doesn't necessarily doom their brilliance. September 2016 was tied with last year as the second hottest September on record and the foliage that year was pretty good. September, 2015 holds the record for the hottest September, yet the foliage that October was absolutely brilliant.

There's a lot going on that scientists don't yet understand about what triggers a good foliage season. I have to wonder, though, whether abrupt cooldowns in late September and early October save the season. In 2015, the final days of September and the first week in October were colder than normal. That might have saved that season. Last year, as mentioned, it was July in October and foliage was, meh.

A pretty orange falllen maple leaf in my
yard today, photographed while a heat
advisory was in effect. 

It does seem, though, that when unusual heat extends into October, we get some muted foliage.

There's no telling how Vermont's weather will play out this autumn. Early September looks hot, but beyond that is anybody's guess.

There are other factors that threaten to dull Vermont's fall foliage in future years. The most immediate threat is the emerald ash borer, which will soon kill pretty much all the white ash trees in Vermont, just as this terrible insect has done in other parts of the nation.

White ash adds beautiful golds and purples to the fall foliage palette, and those will sadly be gone in the coming years.

Looking further ahead, in coming decades some of the trees that create many of the most brilliant foliage, namely sugar maples, will tend to head north as the climate in Vermont gradually turns a little too hot for these trees.

They'll be replaced in part by oaks, which tend not to have as vibrant color as maples.

No matter how fall foliage season 2018 plays out - dull and late or vibrant and on time, there will be at least pockets of absolute beauty. And most likely more than just pockets.

Temperatures are in the 90s today, but those little patches of red sugar maple leaves out there now do feel like a little tiny breath of crisp autumn air.

The Heat Is On (Continued)

Forecast heat index map for Tuesday from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington, Vermont. I see a couple
spot 100 degree heat indexes in places like
St. Albans and Rutland. Yuck!

We're stoking up here in Vermont for yet another heat wave in this long, hot summer.

Heat advisories are already flying for the Champlain Valley, the valleys of western Vermont and in the Connecticut River Valley. These heat advisories, all in effect for tomorrow, also  over the rest of the southern two-thirds of New England, most of New York and New Jersey.

It'll be hot today - highs well into the 80s, but tomorrow is the big day. Most of us will get above 90 degrees, the humidity will be awful and heat indexes will approach 100 degrees.  You know the drill.

Here in Burlington, August is pretty much a shoo-in to become the hottest on record, especially given the weather forecast for the next few days. Currently, the record holder for the hottest August was just two years ago, in 2016, when the mean temperature for the month was 73.7.

So far this month the average temperature in Burlington is 74.6 degrees, so you can see where we stand. There's even a shot this could become the hottest summer overall, despite a cool June. Remember, July was the hottest on record, too.

Interestingly, not counting this year, seven of the 10 hottest Augusts have happened since 2001 (though some of these are tied with hot Augusts decades ago.)

A cold front is going to be stalled north of the border over the next few days and that might - maybe - help with some rain in far northern New York and Vermont.

Heat advisories up for Tuesday areas shaded in orange. People
in areas not shaded are not off the hook. Will be hot there, too

Something nicknamed a "ridge roller," which is a weather disturbance that rides over the northern edges of a strong high pressure system, looks like it might move through southern Quebec tonight, and some showers and storms could extend down just across the International Border.

That cold front will finally, slowly start to make a move toward us Wednesday, and that could spark some more scattered showers and thunderstorms. If everything aligns correctly, some of the storms Wednesday could be strong.

The cold front won't actually cross Vermont until early Thursday, so it will stay hot and humid into Wednesday night. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is mulling weather to issue another heat advisory for Wednesday. It all depends on when the clouds from that cold front arrives.

Thursday and Friday will feel more refreshing with near normal temperatures in the 70s. However, the weather pattern is holding firm for now, so it looks like the first week of September could turn hot again.

There are signs this will all end in due time, not just right away. Currently, the first winter weather advisories of the fall season are up for the mountains of Montana and Wyoming. Between now and Tuesday morning, elevations above 9,000 feet could get four to eight inches of snow.

Bizarro Story From Infowars On Hurricane Lane

These nutjobs on Infowars tell us that John Kerry fired an energy
beam from Antarctica that split Hurricane Lane in two.
Credit them for imagination! 

An energy beam fired from Antarctica, probably by John Kerry, split Hurricane Lane in two while it was near Hawaii last week.

Obviously, that isn't true, but the nutjobs at Infowars obviously think it happened. Infowars, for the unitiated, is a strange conspiracy theory "news" site run by performance artist/crazy man Alex Jones.

Even more strangely, lots of people believe this garbage. Hate to say it, but it appears most of the people who believe in this garbage are Trump partisans.

Here's how I think they came up with this energy beam theory. At one point, a large blob of thunderstorms developed just to the east of Hurricane Lane. On satellite photos, it looked like there were suddently two powerful storms near Hawaii.

The Infowars guys in their video showed what appeared to be an infared satellite image of moisture flow around the world. There briefly appears to be some moisture, or a lack of it, coming out of Antarctica. I'm not sure if it was a glitch, or just air flow coming up from Antarctica northbound near Chile, but there you go.

An energy beam!

Well, actually, it was just the natural flow of moisture in the atmosphere, but that's not exciting enough for the Infowar guys.

After some verbiage concerning China and its aggressions in the South China Sea or something like that, the two people on Infowars conclude former Secretary of State John Kerry is somehow behind it.

Kerry visited Antarctica two years ago. That's a true fact. Somehow, these people in Infowars said that because Kerry once visited Antarctica, he returned and fired that energy beam.

The fact that Kerry visited Antarctica very soon after the 2016 elections somehow makes everything suspicious. How the hell do they come up with this crap?  Anyway, this is what the Infowars host Owen Shroyer said:

"Yeah, why is John Kerry going down to Antarctica just a week after the election to discuss climate hange and then you have energy beams coming out of Antarctica splitting hurricanes?"

How Shroyer connects these two things I'll never know.

"What is John Kerry doing down there? That's awfully suspicious to me," Shroyer said. Never mind there's no indication Kerry visited Antarctica this week. But never mind. Shroyer informs us that the FBI should be investigated this instead of Trump collusion investigation.

That, Shroyer thinks, is a way, way over the top conspiracy theory. OK, whatever.

For his part, Kerry tweeted: "The secret's out - busted."

Oh, that Tweet will send the Infowars nutjobs into a tizzy!

In a reply to Kerry someone jokingly tweeted: "I always said don't trust @JohnKerry some day he's going to split a giant hurricane that's threatening Hawaii in two using some sort of beam fired from Antarctica and everyone laughed at me. Who's laughing now though?"

Another tweet scolded Kerry:

"John, I thought we agreed that you would stop doing that. I fear it's becoming more than a habit - its on the verge of an addiction. Have you considered Giant Laserbeam Zappers Anonymous?"

We'll just have to watch and see. More hurricanes will form in the coming weeks. Will John Kerry zap those, too? We'll have to wait and see.

Another New England Round Of Heat, Humidity

I heard a few people in past week say they're relieved summer heat and humidity in Vermont and surrounding areas is finally over.

Um, no.

We've got at least one more round of oppressive weather to go. You'll notice it will generally get hotter and more humid during the course of the weekend.

Today won't be all that bad. Most places will get into the 80s, but the humidity will be moderate. It won't make you wilt.

Tomorrow might actually be a couple degrees cooler, but it will be more humid so it will feel worse. A weather disturbance will zip by to our north in the afternoon and evening, so that will probably trigger sone scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially north of Route 2.

Then the real heat hits. Expect hot weather and high humidity Monday through Wednesday. At this point, Tuesday looks to be the worst day. Many valley locations could reach 90 degrees, and the humidity will be high.

Wednesday looks hot and humid, too. This spell of hot weather might put Burlington, Vermont over the edge enough to make this August the hottest on record. That's iffy, but it's worth watching.

By Wednesday afternoon,  a cold front will be approaching. More scattered showers and thunderstorms look like a good bet.

Cold fronts in late August often have a little more oomph than ones earlier in the summer, and it could be the case with this one.

If all works according to plan, the humidity will be swept away by Thursday and temperatures will cool down into the upper 60s to mid 70s by day. There's a good chance quite a few places away from Lake Champlain could get into the 40s Thursday night.

Heading into September, we might not be done with summer yet. There are signs it could turn hot and humid again during the first week of the month.

HURRICANE LANE UPDATE
Just a quicky here: Strong upper level winds tore Hurricane Lane apart very quickly in the past 24 hours. It's down to a tropical storm, if that, frankly. The remains of Lane are still dumping torrential rains on Hawaii and severe flooding is ongoing in some places, especially the Big Island and Maui.

A few weather stations reported have reported more than 40 inches of rain so far from the storm, which really is incredible

Hurricane Lane Updates And More Smoke Attacks

Hurricane Lane continued to batter Hawaii overnight and this morning, and it's going to be a long day on the island chain.

This chart supplied by NOAA shows air pressure falling
dramatically, and winds increasing, then suddenly stopping,
then picking up again as the eye of Hurricane Lane
passed over a weather monitoring buoy south of Hawaii

Meanwhile, smoke from wildfires continues to make life unpleasant or worse in many parts of the world.

HURRICANE LANE

At last check, Hurricane Lane was a Category 3 storm with winds of up to 120 mph. It was grinding slowly northward toward Maui and Oahu.  Wind shear is slowly weakening the storm and these strong upper level winds will influence the path of the storm and the degree of destruction in Hawaii.

If the wind shear weakens Hurricane Lane relatively quickly, its northward path will abruptly shift toward the west, sparing much of the state the worst of the hurricane's effects.

If Hurricane Lane weakens a little more slowly than expected, the center of the storm will come close to or even possibly over the islands before turning west, which of course would make things much much worse.

The betting now is that the westward turn will come before Hurricane Lane reaches the islands. Still, it's already close enough to cause a lot of problems and that will just get worse today.

Already, more than 18 inches of rain has fallen on the Big Island of Hawaii, and there's been lots of flash flooding. One town has picked up 26 inches of rain so far. (For comparison's sake, here in Vermont, Burlington has had 22 inches of precipitation so far this year. So we've had less rain in eight months than that town in Hawaii had in a couple of days. )

The flooding will get worse as the hurricane slowly makes its way past Hawaii. Some places could get up to 40 inches of rain.

Wind and battering surf will be bring problems with Hurricane Lane, but the worst of it will be the flooding. Seems like that's a trend.

Oddly, in one are of Maui, it hasn't rained much yet and the wind is picking up. That's spreading a brush fire of all things that has forced the evacuation of a storm emergency shelter.

Speaking of wildfires...….

LOTS OF SMOKE, STILL

A recent hazy sunset in St. Albans this morning, created
by smoke from western wildfires overhead. The haze
has gained and ebbed, and was fairly thick this
morning, at least aloft.

When I got up this morning in St. Albans, Vermont the sky, which should have been blue, was covered with a milky haze.

That's wildfire smoke blowing overhead. It is hazy at ground level, too, but it's not that bad. Most of the polllution here is high overhead, so as of this morning, the air isn't terribly unhealthy. 

Not so in many other places as wildfires continue to burn in large swaths of forest in the Northern Hemisphere during this long, hot summer.

We talked the other day about how awful it was in Seattle, but a wind shift off the ocean is greatly improving air quality there.

Inland, though, it's a different story. Air quality alerts remain in place for a large area of the northern Rocky Mountains.

In Germany, smoke choked Berlin because of a nearby forest fire. Worse, the area where the fire was burning has unexploded bombs left over from World War II, Reuters reports.  How's that for a fire fighting hazard?

According to Climate Central, the increase in the number of wildfire smoke days threatens to undo the progress made under the 1970 Clean Air Act. Emissions from factories and cars are cleaner than they used to be, but the rising trend in wildfires and wildfire smoke is working against that progress.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration is seeking to relax Clean Air Act rules.

Sigh.

Hurricane Lane Nears Hawaii And The Islands Are Screwed

A view of Hurricane Lane from the International Space Station. Photo
by astronaut Ricky Arnold, @astro_ricky

Hurricane Lane is beginning to affect Hawaii and it's going to be a rough couple of days on the island chain.

Hurricane warnings are up for much of Hawaii, including Honolulu, which had gone 26 years without such a warning. It's rare for a hurricane to affect Hawaii this much, rarer still for such a storm to take a track that affects the whole state.

The eye of the hurricane probably won't even come ashore on any of the islands. You'd think that's good news, and it is. The core of the highest winds will miss. But the hurricane is coming close enough, and it's large enough to engulf most of the island in at least tropical force if not hurricane force winds.

How bad things get depends largely on whether an expected shift in its path to the north is strong or lame. A strong northward turn will really make things bad.  A less sharp turn will help keep the worst of the weather offshore.

Regardless on what happens with Hurricane Lane's track, storm surges and battering waves are a huge threat. Even worse, the island chain is mostly mountainous. Heavy rains will cause flash floods that will rush down slopes, carrying away everything in their path.

The flood risk is the worst part of this storm. The hurricane warning for Hawaii says the flood impacts have the potential to be "devastating to catastrophic."

The hurricane warning continues with a dire picture of Hawaiians might face with the flooding:
"Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water with underpasses submerged."

And that part doesn't get into the high risk of destructive mud and landslides.

As I mentioned, hurricanes don't often hit Hawaii, so they're not as prepared as say, Florida. Many houses might not be able to withstand the high winds. It will take awhile for relief supplies to get everywhere, too. Most food and other goods come into Hawaii via ship. If ports are damaged, this flow of goods might slow down.

"Be prepared to shelter in place with 14 days of food supplies and water and any other necessities," Hawaii Gov. David Inge said Friday.

Huge crowds Wednesday at Hawaii grocery stores.

Good luck with that. Residents had already cleared store shelfs of water and nonperishable food. If anyone needs more, too bad at this point, unfortunately.

The first island to get hit is the Big Island, where Hilo is located. Up to eight inches of rain had already been reported there as of Wednesday night, and some places could get 30 inches.

 Flash flooding was already occurring this morning in Hilo and much of the the Big Island. A good chunk of the island will get tropical storm force winds, which are between 39 and 73 mph

Stormy weather will continue to advance northwestward along the island chain as Hurricane Lane itself heads in that direction. Things will deteriorate today across the Hawaii. The worst of the storm will reach the Big Island by the evening and around Honolulu Friday or Friday night.

Yesterday, Hurricane Lane was a dangerous Category 5 storm, the worst you can get. It's slowly weakening as high upper level winds begin to suck the life out of the storm. But that process is very slow, and it's still a major hurricane. Even if the hurricane is a low end Category 1 off the coast of Honolulu  - nearly the best case scenario at this point -  it could still cause dangerous rains, surges and wind.  

Now, it's mostly a waiting game to see how bad things get in Hawaii.

On the brighter side, the Atlantic Ocean, unlike last year, is very quiet. Ocean temperatures are cooler than last year in the prime breeding ground for hurricanes. Plus, upper level winds that tend to squelch wannabe hurricanes are stronger this year than last.

Still, we haven't hit the peak of hurricane season yet and there's no reason to believe a destructive Atlantic hurricane can't still develop.  A weather disturbance is about to come off the west coast of Africa and could develop into something next week.

Stay tuned.

July Was Globally The Fourth Hottest On Record

Red planet? Most of the Earth was warmer than normal in July.

As we've been writing incessantly here, there's been a whole lot of heat waves hitting big areas of the Northern Hemisphere this summer, particularly in July.

So how did the month pan out on the Earth as a whole?

Turns out on a global basis, it was the fourth hottest July on record. Each of the past four Julys have been the hottest on record, with the top one being 2016.

It's not surprising that July, 2018 came out close to the hottest, but not THE hottest. The fading La Nina weather pattern tends to suppress global temperatures a little bit. Long range forecasts call for another El Nino to develop, which tends to nudge up the heat for the Earth a notch. So I think we're still facing hot times ahead.

Especially since climate change is adding to the heat.

In July, 2018, extreme heat in northwestern Europe, parts of southwest Asia, much of the United States and western Africa was offset ever so slighlty by relatively cool conditions in central Russia, an area south of Greenland, and parts of Chile and Argentina.

Year to date, we're also having the fourth hottest year on record on Planet Earth. At least so far.

Here in Vermont, we did have the hottest July on record which also meant we had the hottest month on record. August is on pace to be among the top 10 hottest in Burlington, Vermont, and maybe even THE hottest if temperature trends continue.

Other than tomorrow, which could be a very slightly cooler than average, the rest of the month looks like it will be on the relatively warm side here in Vermont.

I'm not sure, but I don't think this will be Vermont's hottest summer on record because June wasn't particularly warm. It was just close to average, and even a little on the cool side in parts of the state.

Madison Flood, Seattle Smoke and Hawaii Hurricane?

 .

EDITOR'S NOTE:
A photo of the Madison flood that originally appeared in this post was removed, as photo credit was not given and I could not prove it was Madison flood. I regret the error.

Spots of nasty weather keep popping up in different places in the nation. Areas around Madison, Wisconsin were inundated by up to a foot of rain, smoke is choking some areas of the west, including Seattle, Washington and Vancouver, British Columbia. And Hawaii is under threat from a hurricane.

MADISON FLOOD

Around a foot of rain fell in and around Madison, Wisconsin yesterday and last night, creating some of the worst flooding some areas around there have seen in decades. 

Many roads were closed, with city officials warning people not to drive through certain sections of Madison this morning. Many people had to be rescued from stranded cars, and water flowed into a number of homes and businesses. One person has been reported missing due to the floods.

Video of the flooding is at the bottom of this post.

This was all part of a slow moving storm that also caused serious flash flooding earlier in the day around Omaha, Nebraska and Council Bluffs, Iowa, among other places. Homes and apartment buildings in Council Bluffs flooded. 

The storm system also spun off a few tornadoes and caused quite a few damaging thunderstorms.

The storm will affect us here in Vermont tonight and tomorrow, but no severe thunderstorms or flooding will happen.

SMOKE ATTACK

Skyline of Seattle, Washington obscured by smoke Monday. Image form
KIRO, Seattle

Wildfires continue to rage from California to British Columbia with pretty much no relief in sight. The fires aren't only affecting people right near the fires.

Millions of people are coughing in heavy smoke settling into populated areas, including Seattle, Washington and Vancouver, British Columbia.

Air quality in British Columbia over the past few days has often been the worst in the world, even worse than the epic smog attacks that sometimes engulf Beijing, China. Ironically, Beijing reported its best, cleanest air quality in a decade this past week.

All this smoke is obviously unhealthy. KIRO-TV reported the smoke in Seattle Monday was as unhealthy as smoking seven cigarettes. Authorities were warning people not to go outdoors if at all possible, and also not to bring pets outside either. Which would be difficult, I think.

In British Columbia, the smoke was so thick that flights around Vancouver were delayed, and activities at some soccer camps were postponed.

The smoke keeps making its way eastward. There have been occasional air quality alerts in places like Minnesota. Here in Vermont, we have seen periods of hazy skies occasionally over the past week due to the western smoke.

HAWAII HURRICANE?

Powerful Hurricane Lane was spinning southeast of Hawaii this morning with top sustained winds of 140 mph. Current projections indicated it could come close to, or even over some of the Hawaiian islands later this week.

Hurricane Lane could strike Hawaii later this week

It's still a bit uncertain if that will happen, but people are being told to start preparing, just in case.

Even if Hurricane Lane hits Hawaii, it will weaken a bit by the time it gets there. It would still be a powerful, dangerous storm, so  it's probably a good idea if residents start at least thinking about it.

Destructive hurricanes are rare in Hawaii but they do happen. In 1992, Hurricane Iniki hit Kauai, killing six people, injuring 1,000, destroying 1,500 homes and damaging countless other. Total estimated damages were at $1.8 billion dollars.

Here's a video of the flash flooding breaking a small retaining wall and surging into an understandably frightened woman's house:

Another Extreme Flood: This Time In India

At least 350 have died in the worst flooding parts of southern
India have seen in a century

It's all been heat waves and extreme floods this summer, and the latest place to have a mega-disaster is the state of Kerala, in southwestern India.

They often have some flooding due to seasonal monsoons, but this was the worst in at least a century. 

About 350 people have died, mostly in landslides, and at least 750,000 people have been evacuated.

The rain is finally tapering off after two weeks of downpours, but the damage is done. Many people are still stranded, and authorities are struggling to bring in relief supplies. The flood has given us some stunning and scary images, like in the videos below.

Here's a view from a window as a nearby building collapsed into a raging river:




Here, a man, neck deep in water inside his home, appeals for help while holding his cell phone just above the water:



Would you drive across this bridge, especially in these circumstances? This guy did. Yikes!




Finally, check out these  horrible landslides:

New Videos Of California "Fire Tornado" Even More Terrifying

Terrifying helicopter view of massive fire tornado" ripping
through Redding, California neighborhoods. 

I know I've gone gaga over that terrible "fire tornado" during the Carr Fire around Redding, California earlier this summer. I've already done a couple posts about it.

New footage, from a helicopter and a fire truck has emerged showing the incredible power and huge size of this tornado like whirl.

As I've previously reported, a National Weather Service analysis of this thing indicated it had winds as high as 143 mph - very much like a strong EF-3 tornado.

An additional video shows the fire tornado crossing the Sacramento River while staying intact and powerful. Quite the scene!

Here's the new videos:



This video shows the fire tornado going out onto the Sacramento River. A hellish scene of fire on water:

We're (Finally!) At The Beginning Of The End Of A Long Hot Vermont Summer

A bit of color in the trees already near my St. Albans,
Vermont house as the end of summer draws near.

The last couple of days here in Vermont marked the beginning of the end of this long, hot summer.

Oh sure, we'll have some more oppressively humid days. Very warm days. Hell, between now and mid-September we could have another scorching, multi-day 90 degree heat wave.

But overall, we're now on a downhill slide away from the peak of summer heat. The initial cooldown is subtle, for sure.

A cold front early Thursday introduced a bit of cooler, drier air, though it was still seasonably warm for this time of year. That seemed like the first hint.

On Friday, the temperature in Burlington, Vermont failed to make it to 80 degrees, ending a record long streak of 29 consecutive days at or above 80 degrees.  Even so, the air turned quite muggy again yesterday, though the air had the feeling of a last gasp burst of September humidity rather than full on summertime stuff.

Another cold front was sinking slowly southward across Vermont and the rest of New England this morning. When I took the dogs out early this morning, a chilly drizzle slapped me gently on the face, propelled by clammy north breeze.

Behind this cold front, it will still be relatively warm, summery. Just not full on hot. Afternoon temperatures over the next few days will be generally in the 75 to 82 degree range.  A storm system heading northeastward through the Great Lakes looks like it will have sort of an autumnal character, too.

That storm will be stronger than most mid-summer weather systems, and will have a bit of wind with this. And it will be moving along pretty fast, a departure from the normal sluggish pace of high summer weather changes.

This slow transition away from summer almost always seems to begin in Vermont around mid-August. It's right on schedule this year. You see it in the landscape, too. A few unhealthy trees already have a little color. The rest of the still green leaves look tired and battered. Open fields are turning yellow with carpets of goldenrod.

Usually at this time of year, I get a bit wistful, disappointed that our short summer is coming to an end and we face a long winter.

This summer was so hot, so persistent that for the first time in my life I feel a bit relieved that heat is relaxing. I'll change my tune soon enough and complain about the cold like I usually do.

The heat was one for the record books. This weather geek gets a little excited when long standing climate records are broke like they were over the past couple of months. . But with the heat that wilted most of the Northern Hemisphere this summer, the often unprecedented blast furnace was more than a little alarming. Climate change is here.

Not every summer going forward will be as hot as this one was. There will even be a few disappointingly chilly and cloudy summers now and then. But the chances of us having long stretches of heat are clearly rising.

Maybe it's time to start getting used to strange Vermont heat.

Strong Storms, Downpours To Hit Vermont, Rest Of Northeast Today

Areas in yellow face a slight chance of severe thunderstorms today. 

When I got up early this morning skies were still clear. Did that mean the expected storminess today wasn't coming?  

No and Nope.

We should expect quite a bit of  weather today. The good news is those of us who need a good rainfall looks like we'll get it.

The bad news is in some areas, it could rain too hard and cause very local flooding problems. And some storms could turn severe in central and southern areas.

A warm front was coming at us from the southwest early this morning, and that should give most of us an initial slug of rain later this morning and early this afternoon. I say most of us because radar images early this morning did detect gaps in this area of rain, so some of us might get unlucky, again.

Early this afternoon, most of us, especially areas south of Route 2 in Vermont, will get into the warm, sticky air again. The sun might also break through the clouds, which will help destabilize the air ahead of a cold front. That sets the stage for possible strong storms.

SEVERE WEATHER DETAILS

The best chances for severe storms will be central and southern Vermont, the Hudson Valley of New York, western New Hampshire, western Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut.

Not everybody will get severe storms in those zones. Most people won't. But a few towns very well could. The biggest threat from the potentially severe storms is strong straight line winds and microbursts.

There is a very, very remote chance of a brief tornado in this region. I kinda doubt there will be any, but this year has been strangely tornadic in New England, so you never know. High resolution forecast models do indicate the possibility of some embedded supercell thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening.

HEAVY RAIN, FLOODING?

Areas in yellow are under a slight risk of excessive rain and
possible very local flash flooding. 

The next issue is rain. Many of us should expect anywhere between a half inch and an inch and a half of rain.

That's a good thing in northern Vermont, which is still quite dry. I do worry about particularly parched far northwestern Vermont, because some of the models indicate lighter amounts of rain there.

Still, anywhere that gets a particularly torrential downpour today could see local flash flood issues. That would involve small streams and creeks in mountainous areas, and streets with poor drainage in urban areas.

Widespread flooding is unlikely.

The places with the best chances of local flooding include all of Vermont, the eastern half of New York, northwestern New Hampshire and northern Maine. Again, almost everybody in this area will escape flooding. But there might be issues in a couple spots within this area.

WILL 80 STREAK END?

The record long streak of 80 degree days looks like it will come to an end today or tomorrow in Burlington. We squeaked out another 80 on Thursday, which brings the Queen City to a record 29 days in a row with temperatures at or above 80.

If enough sun breaks through the clouds between showers today, there might be another 80 today. I give it a 50/50 shot. Saturday looks cooler, with an expected high of 77 degrees. All good or bad things, depending on your perspective, must come to an end, right?

Click Bait! My Guaranteed 100 Percent Winter Forecast!

The dog days of summer are grinding on here in Vermont, with us experiencing so much more humidity and uncomfortable warmth.  

Which means it's time for the winter forecast!

Everybody and their uncle seems to be issuing forecasts for what kind of winter we will have. I've heard everything from Worst, Coldest, Snowiest Winter Ever!! to "It'll be like Barbados, just warmer."

Click bait, I know. Everybody has such confidence in their winter forecasts, but if you go back and look at them after winter's over, most of them are largely wrong. Especially the ones that predicted extreme winters. You know there will be a few boring days mixed in with the exciting ones in the winter, but the click baiters will have you believe it will be wall to wall extremes.

Whatever.

I have very little confidence in these long range forecasts, so I'll give you the percent chance of what I think will happen. I don't buy many winter forecasts issued in August, but this one will be spot on, I promise:

Chances that it will snow in Vermont this winter: 100%

Chances that some idiot on a snowy, icy morning will zip down the Interstate and full speed on bald tires and cause a crash that creates a traffic jam that makes us all late for work: 100%

Chances that any given Vermonter will complain about snow and cold after complaining about this summer's heat: 80%

Chances that I will be among those who complain about both this summer and the upcoming winter: 100%

Chances that somebody will be disappointed that it snowed at the beginning of the week, while others will be bitter that a thaw set in by the end of the week: 90%

Chances that I will slip and fall on the ice and blame everything but my own clumsiness for the mishap: 85%

Chances that we will whine about snow in March and April even though it snows every March and April: 100%

Chances that somebody who made a winter forecast in advance, got it wrong, but later will claim they got it right: 95%

Chances that a climate change denier will point to the fact that it is snowing. In Vermont! In January! that they will say "see, there's no climate change. It's cold and snowing." 95%

Chances that temperatures, precipitation and general weather conditions will sometimes change dramatically from day to day or week to week, as they always do. 100% - Duh!

Chances that this winter, people will put out equally boneheaded summer predictions for 2019: 99%

Rescue The Animals! Videos Of Animals Being Rescued From Wildfires, Floods

Image from a police bodycam as the officer wearing it
rushes into a California animal shelter to grab dogs and cast
and take them to safety as a wildfire bore down. 

Two recent videos made me happy that people do remember animals in disasters.  As wildfires and flash floods struck, people sprung into action.

Not only are people driven to save each other from harm, thank goodness there are people who remember our dog and cat and other animal companions.


The first video is bodycam footage of police rushing into an animal shelter as the Carr Fire near Redding, California bears down on the building.

By the way, the Carr fire was likely started by a camper on a highway that got a flat tire. The rim made contact with the asphalt, sparks flew into the brush and the fire started. The owners of the camper, an older couple are distraught that they accidentally started the fire and feel responsible.

Victims of the fire, many of whom lost their homes, are sending letters to the elderly couple assuring them it was not their fault and they should not feel bad.

Back to the animal rescues, Big rush to get them out, but it worked. All were saved. Watch:



Next, we go to New Jersey, where a flash flood threatened the lives of 80 dogs trapped in a doggie day care center as water began to pour in. Personnel at the place tried to get the dogs to safety, but there were too many of them.

The dogs began barking and howling so loudly in panic that people inside a nearby gun range (!!) heard them. The guys dropped their guns, went to the dog day care center and got all the dogs to safety.

Seventeen of the dogs spent the night safely at the higher and drier gun range overnight until their human companions could retrieve them. (No gunfire to scare the dogs, the place was closed while the dogs sheltered there.)

The dogs weren't the only good boys in this scenario, that's for sure. Watch the news clip:

Northern Vermont, Surrounding Areas Could Get Strong Boomers Later

The National Weather Service office
in South Burlington, Vermont posted
this photo of thunderstorms at
dawn today, as viewed from the
Burlington International Airport

Well, it's still humid out there for now, but at least a cold front is approaching that will give us some relief from this ickiness, starting tomorrow.

It won't exactly be cold behind the cold front, but humidity levels will go down a bit by tomorrow,  especially in northern sections of region, and temperatures will be close to normal for this time of year.  It'll still be vaguely humid, especially south, but not like it was yesterday, or is today.

Today, there might be some pretty strong thunderstorms ahead of this front this afternoon and evening.

As of 11 a.m., there was already a collection of decent-sized, but not severe thunderstorms heading toward the New York border from Quebec. A few more scattered storms were in the Connecticut River Valley, heading into New Hampshire.

This won't be a widespread severe outbreak by any means. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has northern New York and the northern third or so of New England in a marginal risk zone for severe storms. 

That pretty much means that there will be isolated reports of wind damage from these storms, but not everybody will get blasted. Still, it's best to take non-severe storms seriously, too, because we might end up with quite a bit of dangerous cloud to ground lightning, and local torrential downpours.

We pretty much missed out on the rain yesterday, with just scattered showers and storms around. The next shot, after today, of any of us getting any decent rain comes Friday, when another cold front will approach.

Forecasters are pretty bullish on most of us getting a slug of rain. Nothing excessive, but still helpful. I'll believe it when I see it. We have frequently been "cheated" out of rain this summer, even when the setup for the storminess seemed pretty favorable at first.

Regardless of how much rain Friday's cold front brings us, it will be noticeably less humid over the weekend. Comfortable, actually, with near normal temperatures, which should be in the 70s to around 80 this time of year.

We're getting close to the end of summer, so I think you will see the general humid pattern we've been in for so long start to fade. There will be uncomfortably muggy days heading into September, but you'll notice some fresher days getting into the mix, too.

Looks like you survived the summer of 2018.

You'd Think It Would Finally Rain In Vermont With This Humidity, But Everyone Else Getting It Instead

Showers are few and far between today in Vermont, but the showers
that do form are giving the sky the appearance of something you'd see
over a Caribbean island. Which isn't surprising, since this really
is pure tropical air. 

It's another oppressively warm, incredibly humid day here in Vermont.

Once again, I cut short outdoor work because the sun, combined with the humidity was too much for me.

I originally thought - as did many forecasters - that today would be a cloudier, more showery day than recent ones.

Especially in northern Vermont, where we still really need the rain. And I would have been willing to work outside under clouds with this humidity, without the glaring heat of the sun.

And I would have been willing to work outside in these temperatures and the sun, if the humidity were lower. Rain showers would have further cooled me off out there.

It was not to be. It seems every time northern Vermont seems finally ready to get some decent rains, something interferes.

This time, it's an upper level low stuck to our southwest. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, drier air wrapped around this low, and went south to north in a corridor that took it right across Vermont.

Sure, with this awful humidity near the surface, there's bound to be some local showers and storms. One tiny cell formed in Milton early this afternoon and traveled north right along Interstate 89 all the way to Highgate.

Meanwhile, flash flooding is so bad in Pennsylvania today that a
building housing the New Albany library sadly washed away.
Thankfully, two people in an apartment on the second floor
of the building were rescued before the structure
entirely broke apart. 

When I got home to St. Albans, Vermont early this afternoon,  things outside were wet, so at least I got a little needed rain out of the deal, while lots of other people didn't.

Most showers and storms that form the rest of this afternoon over and near Vermont will get going over the mountains and pretty much stay there. We lack any real wind in the atmosphere, so there's nothing to push them along.

Because showers and storms will be such slow movers, isolated spots in the state could get torrential downpours and gullywashers.

If any particular storm gets especially tall, there's barely enough wind in the upper atmosphere to push them into valleys. Most valley locations won't get rain the rest of the this afternoon and evening, but there's hope a few will.

The tropical air looks really, well, tropical. I swear the sky over the Green Mountain State today looks more like we're on a Caribbean island and not in northern New England.

The next chance of widespread, meaningful rain in northern Vermont will come along Friday and Saturday, but I'm guessing, just as we repeatedly experienced all summer, some complication will come along to prevent that anticipated precipitation.

Meanwhile, so many people under and close to that upper low I talked about are getting, way, way too much rain. Flash flooding has been an enormous problem since Saturday in these areas, especially in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, and that state of affairs continues this afternoon.

The flash flooding continues today, especially along the Pennsylvania/New York border near Elmira and Binghamton. It's gotten so bad a building housing a library in New Albany, Pennsylvania literally washed away in the flood.

It continues: Some people are getting way too much rain, and not that far way, other people are not getting enough. Too bad we don't have the power to redistribute it.

Flooding Caused Havoc In Many Areas Over The Weekend

It seemed like the theme in weather news the past several days has shifted a bit from heat to flood.

Severe flooding striking India in recent days. 

Sure, heat waves are going on at a brisk pace, if I dare use the word "brisk." Here in Vermont, Burlington on Sunday had its 25th consecutive day of 80 degree weather, which ties the record for the longest such spell.

It's likely to reach 80 degrees in Burlington today.

It got cloudy in Vermont Sunday, sort of a side effect of that aforementioned flooding. Those were the outer clouds of storms that caused flooding in parts of southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic states Sunday.

I'll get to that in a moment, but I should lead with flooding that was worse and deadlier than anything that happened in the United States.

Monsoon flooding happens most years in India, but at least in one section of that nation, the flooding in recent days was described as "unprecedented."

At least 37 people died and about 40,000 people were evacuated from the tourist area called the Malabar Coast, reports CNN.

Elsewhere, severe flooding also hit the Philippines. One viral video shows a wedding NOT canceled in a flooded church as the bride and her family waded through the murky water to the alter. The show must go on.

In Texas, eight or nine inches of rain fell in just three hours west of San Antonio. More than two dozen people had to be rescued via helicopter. No serious injuries were reported.

Mud on this car shows how high the water got in Little Falls, New Jersey.
Photo by Amy Newman. 

In Massachusetts, a torrential storm flooded some areas.

The hardest hit area was around Lynn, where a thunderstorm stalled Sunday, dumping eight inches of rain on that community. Many if not most streets in Lynn were closed by high water and many homes flooded.

In New Jersey, where yesterday I showed you that viral video of cars floating down a river, flood damage in some areas was the worst since Hurricane Floyd in 1999, says NorthJersey.com

The inside of some houses in Little Falls were flooded to a depth of up to four feet. In Bogota, New Jersey, a bride in her wedding dress and the groom were rescued from a flooded car. Seems like the flooding liked to attack weddings. I see a theme going on in this report.

The flooding goes on. Flash flooding was ongoing this morning in eastern Pennsylvania and, again, New Jersey. The heavy rain is expected to go on all day, and the flooding will become more widespread.

Here in Vermont, it looks like there will be increasing areas of rain as we get into Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some of the rain might be heavy in some spots in the Green Mountain State, but no widespread flooding is in the forecast.

Another Vermont Heat Record Might Be Set Today. And WIld New Jersey Flood Vis

While summer warmth grinds on up here in Vermont,
flash flooding swept these cars away in
New Jersey Saturday.

We've set all kinds of heat records around these parts this summer and it looks like we might be about to tie, then break another one.  

If the temperature in Burlington, Vermont reaches 80 degrees today, we'll tie the record for the most consecutive days in which the temperature has reached that level.

That would be 25 days, which is how many consecutive 80s there were between July 22 and August 15, 1988.

It'll be close, but we might make it today. The forecast high today in Burlington is precisely 80 degrees. If it's a little cloudier than expected, we might not reach 80. A little extra sun would bring us above that magic number.

If we get to 80 today the streak will likely continue. The forecast high on Monday is 83 degrees. Tuesday's forecast is 81, Wednesday is 83, Thursday is 81. At this point, the forecast for Friday is 79 degrees, which would end the streak.

But we don't know that for sure.  On any of these days listed, the temperature in Burlington could easily be a few degrees below or above the forecasts. It depends on the timing of clouds, showers, and unexpected changes in the forecast for oncoming weather systems.

The upcoming weather systems in question continue to promise a humid week for us, with scattered showers and thunderstorms daily starting today and going through the week. Any showers or storms today will be widely scattered at best. Most of us won't see one. But if any develop, they will be slow movers. Whoever gets a storm might get a lot of rain from it.

At this point, the wettest day looks like it will be Tuesday. But again, some places will get little rain, some places will get drenched. It's all the roll of the dice.

This wet weather pattern really hit New Jersey and other sections of metro New York, the Mid-Atlantic states and a few places in southern New England Saturday.

Flash flood warnings were flying in different areas in the region all day. Some floods caused quite a bit of damage. Below is a video of a flash flood in Passaic, New Jersey swiping cars from an auto dealership, sending them downstream and crashing into a bridge and each other.