That Lake Effect Snow Band Was Wild, Even In Vermont

In this photo taken a little after sunset near Georgia, Vermont looking
to the Northwest. That dark line of clouds off in the distance is
that lake effect snow band. It was snowing hard under
those clouds. 

I was absolutely fascinated by that incredible lake effect snow band that stretched from Lake Superior, over to get more energy from Lake Huron, before crossing Lake Ontario to blast the New York shore near and just south of Watertown.

At least 48 inches of snow fell in Carthage, New York and 33 inches buried Watertown, and these aren't final figures.

Lake effect snows are very common, and those snow totals didn't break all time records.

But the huge length of the lake effect snow band, the persistence of it, its unusual influence here in Vermont and the timing of it are all pretty fascinating.

Equally impressive was how well forecast it was.  Weather computer models and meteorologists accurately anticipated this entire scenario at least two days in advance.

First, I'll get into the timing of this thing.  You can get lake effect snow off the Great Lakes this time of year, but it's unusual. And something this impressive is quite rare for the end of February.

To get a decent lake effect storm, you need open, unfrozen water on the lakes. Cold air coming in from Canada picks up moisture from the lakes and then dumps it as snow on the shore. Usually, the Great Lakes are largely frozen this time of year, which means there's not much open water to gather moisture. Which means any lake effect snows in late winter are usually pretty paltry.

Radar image of the lake effect snow band Friday coming ashore
on the left by Lake Ontario and extending toward the northeast
to near St. Albans.  Click on the image to make it bigger and
easier to see. The apparent gap in the snow band near
Lake Placid is just mountains blocking the radar beam from
picking up the fallling snow in that region. 

Ice extent on the lakes right now is close to the lowest on record for this time of year, so there was plenty of open water for this thing to feed on

It was rare and fascinating to see how long this narrow snow band stretched.

In most places, it was not more than 15 miles wide, but at one point Friday, it stretched more than 1,200 miles from Lake Superior to northern New England and southern Quebec.

That the snow band affected Vermont so much was also a wild moment for me.

Strong lake effect snow bands often extend into Vermont, but in weakened form. A lot of the moisture from these things gets dumped out in the Adirondacks.

By the time a snow band gets to the mountains of Vermont, there's not much left. So you get accumulation of perhaps several inches to, sometimes as much as 10 inches or so in the northern Green Mountains.

In this case, the band stayed pretty much intact all the way to northern Vermont and southern Quebec on Friday.  True, it wasn't nearly as strong as it was near the shore of Lake Ontario, but it still had some oomph left.

The exception is the Champlain Valley, because the Adirondacks formed a "shadow" which kept the moisture from reaching the ground there. The snow largely skipped over the valley and hit the western slopes of the Green Mountains instead. That's how it usually works with Great Lakes snow bands.

Like most snow bands, this one wavered back and forth. It lifted north to just along the Quebec and New York and northwestern tip of Vermont by late Friday afternoon, then settled south again Friday evening.

It was fascinating to see that band of clouds to the northwest of my place in St. Albans, Vermont early Friday evening, wih the moon and Venus shining overhead.  The snow band settled slowly south later, and it snowed heavily for a time in St. Albans around 9 a.m. We picked up just 1.5 inches of new snow last night, but I'm sure it was much heavier to my east, out toward the Green Mountains near Bakersfield.

It is hard to tease out exactly how much snow was from the snow band itself and just wrap around moisture behind the storm that had passed well to our Northeast by Friday.

But preliminary totals are pretty amazing nonetheless. The summit of Mount Mansfield received 10 inches of snow from the actual storm system on Thursday, then 16 inches in lake effect and wrap around moisture on Friday.

Storm totals since Thursday, including the main storm, wrap around moisture and the lake effect band, amounted to a very impressive 17 inches in Greensboro by 7 a.m. Friday, 14 inches by 10 a.m. Friday in Eden, an 13.1 inches in Glover.

Since the snow kept coming Friday afternoon and night, I can't wait until snow total updates come in later today.

By this Saturday morning, the lake effect band had broken up, but lingering lake moisture and more damp, cold air coming down from Canada will keep light snow showers going for much of today.  Valleys will get two inches or less of new snow today, but the mountains could pull off a few more inches.

Enjoy the deep powder on the mountains Sunday, because it's going to warm up for much of next week, which will settle the snow, make it wet and/or a bit crusty. Sunday will certainly be the best powder day in northern Vermont in the winter of 2019-20.

Here's a video of people driving through the lake effect snow near Watertown, New York. As you can see, some motorists weren't all that smart:

Storm And Its Aftermath Overperforming In Some Vermont Spots

At 10:30 a.m. Thursday, rain was changing to snow at
my place in St. Albans, Vermont. 

I said yesterday that weather conditions would change rapidly in Vermont and that sure as hell happened.

Around my house in St. Albans was typical. At 10 a.m. Thursday it was raining.

By 11:30 a.m., it was snowing hard, more than two inches of heavy snow was on the ground and motorists could barely make it up the hill on the road in front of my house.

In most of Vermont, the snow tapered off in the afternoon and most areas got about as much snow as forecast - a dusting in southeastern Vermont at most, and one to three inches elsewhere.  Some spots overperformed, though.

A good five inches accumulated at my place in St. Albans, but I'm at a high elevation away from Lake Champlain.

Now we're into the aftermath, with moisture wrapping around the back side of the storm, which is now way northeast of us. As expected, epic lake effect snow bands are crashing off the Great Lakes into western New York.  A few places in the famous Tug Hill Plateau snow belt could get a total of four feet of accumulation off this.

For us here in Vermont, this is an amazingly good set up for a pretty whopping snowfall along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, at least in the central and northern parts of the the state.

An hour later, at 11:30 a.m. it was back to a winter wonderland

If you looked at radar returns Friday morning, you can see a major snowband plowing into an area just south of Watertown, New York and smashing into the Adirondacks, releasing most of its snow.

But the remains of the snow band, combined with that moisture rotating around the back side of the storms, continues that radar-indicated snow into and through northern Vermont.

Especially in the Champlain Valley, very little of that snow is hitting the ground: The Adirondacks are blocking the moisture.  Elsewhere in northern Vermont, snowfall overnight has been light and continues that way this morning.

But I imagine the high elevation slopes of the Green Mountains are kind of getting clobbered. As of 6 a.m., I haven't seen much in the way of updated snow totals, but that will come later.

This state of affairs will continue all day today and well into tonight.   I suspect we'll see some surprisingly deep accumulations on those western slopes, and in favored locations in the Northeast Kingdom by Saurday.  

If you live right in Burlington, or Middlebury, or in the Connecticut River Valley south of St. Johnsbury, you'll wonder what all the fuss is about. There, you'll get, at the very most, two inches of new snow between now and Saturday.   Most likely you'll see an inch, if that.

Head into the mountains, though, and it will be a different story. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is already predicting that between 1 p.m. yesterday and 7 p.m. tonight, four to as much as eight inches of snow will come down in the high elevations north of Route 2, with a little more after that.

Tonight, a boundary - essentially a weak cold front - will sag southward into Vermont. That will, for a time, enhance the snowfall over northern and central Vermont.  Once this boundary passes your location, snowfall will taper off dramatically, even if you start the night getting a ton of snow.

This boundary, once it goes by, will suppress moisture from that Lake Ontario snow band to the south, leaving northern and central Vermont with pretty much just flurries Saturday.

The following is by no means an official forecast, and I readily admit I don't have nearly  the expertise of a full-fledged meteorologist.  But I've seen this movie before, and I would not be surprised to see a foot or more - maybe 18 inches or more - of new snow between last night and Saturday morning in isolated spots on some mountains.

I'll repeat that's not most of us.  Even on most valley floors in northern Vermont away from Lake Champlain, most forecasts think those areas will only see another one to five inches of fluff.

Enjoy the deep powder on some mountains this weekend, because another warming trend is due next week. Hey, we're getting into March, you can't expect winter, even a warm one like this has been, to last forever

Vermont Should Expect Rapid Weather Changes Today With Storm

Amid a cold rain Thursday morning, areas around my house in St. Albans,
Vermont took on a gloomy, early March like feel

As of 10 a.m. Thursday, the storm blowing through Vermont is acting pretty much as expected, which is a testament to the meteorologists who have been covering this thing for the past couple of days.

The main differences from predictions so far is that we have trended more toward rain in the valleys and mid-elevations.  It seems like only areas above 2,000 feet have gotten any snow worth talking about.

Downslope wind reports along the immediate western slopes of the Green Mountains have, as of 9 a.m., not been as spectacular as forecast. However, the most favorable conditions for those winds were only just coming across the state.

As of 8:50 a.m. the highest wind gusts I found at non-mountaintop locations were 49 mph at Mendon and Lake Dunmore and 48 mph in the Nashville section of Jericho.

Vermont Outage Map had about 3,000 homes and businesses without power, scattered across the state, as of 10 a.m. Thursday.

 It seems like any snow that's been mixing in through the valleys or mid-elevations comes with bursts of heavier precipitation, which is normal. As the storm consolidates and strengthens as it moves through it will cool the atmosphere, which is just starting to lower the elevations at which it is snowing.  I noticed Montpelier switched from rain to snow at around 9 a.m.

Those towns that are still in the rain still face the risk of some street flooding from clogged drains and heavy bursts of rain.

The strong front with this storm is moving southwest to northeast across Vermont.  Immediately behind the front, temperatures drop and things switch very quickly to snow.   Since the cold front (really technically something called an occluded front) is coming at us at an odd angle, Bennington was the first Vermont town to feel the temperature drop.

They went from 43 degrees at 8 a.m. with a gusty southeast wind to 34 degrees just before 9 a.m. behind the front with a gusty southwest wind.  The front was moving fairly fast. It had just passed through Rutland at 10 a.m., with precipitation in the process of changing to snow.

This very noticeable switch in the weather will progress across the rest of the state from southwest to northeast for the rest of the morning and early afternoon.

Everybody will get into the snow amid falling temperatures by this afternoon as the front goes through.  However, the best moisture with this storm fades shortly after the front passes, so nobody, except the higher mountaintops, will get  huge amounts of snow. Still, a quick one to three inches, locally more is still a good bet this afternoon.

Those wet roads will freeze and get covered with snow, so you'll have to deal with that on the way home from work this afternoon.

The main storm will be done by evening, but the lingering snow showers will last all the way into Saturday, especially in the mountains.

As I mentioned, there's an epic lake effect blizzard coming to the shores of Lakes Erie and Ontario in New York.  Off of lake Ontario, they are still expecting up to four feet of snow from this.

The lake effect snow will have enough oomph to make it all the way to the Green Mountains in weakened form, allowing for several inches of snow to pile up in the northern and central Green Mountains by Saturday night.

Another weather front will sag southward from north to south across Vermont Friday.  That front is weak, but will provide a focus for those lake effect snow showers. Which means even in the valleys,  at least a dusting to two inches, locally more, will accumulate.  This even includes the Champlain Valley, in my opinion.

Some areas of northern Vermont, expecially mountains from Sugarbush north to Jay Peak,  could get six inches or more out of that lake effect.

Vermont Storm Update: Still Very Windy, Wet And Wet-Snowy Thursday

National Weather Service updated snowfall prediction map issued
Wednesday afternoon. It still looks like this is going to be
an elevation snowstorm in Vermont. Click on the map
to make it bigger and easier to see. Yellow and orange
areas should expect more than six inches of snow.

Since this is going to be a pretty good storm, it's worth updating the situation, as you're going to see a lot of rain and/or snow Thursday morning. Some of us will also see a ton of wind.  You'll need to deal with it, so here you go:

THE SETUP 

This afternoon, light north winds funneled chilly air southward down the Champlain Valley, so it ended up being cooler today than expected.  (Elsewhere in Vermont, the low level cool air couldn't make it in, so today's highs ended up in the mid to upper 30s, as forecast.

This subfreezing air today, along with occasional light snow, doesn't really mean the Champlain Valley is in for a colder, snowier storm than expected tonight and tomorrow.  In fact, as of late afternoon, the snow flurries here in St. Albans had already changed to a some light sleet, mixed with a few drops of freezing rain.  That's an indication that a surge of warmer air is on its way.

For most of tonight, at least until midnight, any precipitation that does fall will be very light and spotty.  It's not until the storm pushes in from the southwest, with its strong weather front, that heavy precipitation will get going after midnight.

HEAVY RAIN/SNOW

That front will initially bring a surge of somewhat milder air, so the heavy stuff that comes down in the valleys early Thursday seems like it will be mostly rain. However, with the weather front and storm itself strengthening as it comes in, that could cool the atmosphere a bit to produce wet snow, so it's no guarantee the valleys will be mostly rain.  Let's just call that rain scenario likely, but it's possible you could be surprised.

If it is mostly rain, it come down hard for a time in the morning. There's still a fair amount of ice and snow on the ground in northern areas.  Storm drains are clogged with ice, too. Expect some urban flooding with this rain, if the forecast comes out as expected.  More than half an inch of rain in just a few hours is expected, which would be enough to cause that kind of problem on town and city streets, and maybe basements.

River and stream flooding won't be much of an issue because a large share of the precipitation that will come down in the higher elevations will be snow.

The higher in elevation you go, the more likely you are to get snow.  It still doesn't look like there will be much in mid-elevations, say around 1,000 feet. Those areas could manage a couple or thre einches. However, it's still possible we'd get a surprise with more, but so far, it's looking like a no.

If you're up above 2,000 feet in elevation in most of Vermont, you've got a great shot of getting six inches or more of snow.  Snowfall rates up there could be in the one to two inch per hour range. Especially given that it will probably be a relatively wet and heavy snow, I wouldn't drive toward the mountains Thursday morning.

HIGH WINDS

Wind gust forecast from the National Weather Service in South Burlington
That dark orange stripe along the western slopes of the Green Mountains
in eastern Rutland and Addison counties forecast gusts of at
least 60 mph early Thursday. Lighter orange shading indicates
gusts of at least 40 mph. 

Adding to this mix is the expectations that winds could get quite strong on the immediate western slopes of the Green Mountains. I mentioned this in this morning's post, and everything still seems to be aligning toward those winds.  

The strongest winds would come before or near dawn in Rutland and Addison counties, closest to those western slopes.

Winds could easily gust past 60 mph. With some snow loading on trees and power lines in higher spots, this is a recipe for power problems in and near communites like Mount Holly, Shrewsbury, Mendon, Goshen, Chittenden, Brandon and Starksboro.

Those high winds along the western slopes will spread north around or just after dawn to western slope communities like Huntington, Bolton, Jericho, Underhill, Cambridge and Bakersfield.

In those towns the wind will be a little lighter than points south along the Greens, but the gusts will be enough to risk some power line and tree issues.

The bottom line is you should prepare for a complicated Thursday morning commute, regardless of whether you get mostly rain, mostly snow, or strong winds.  You might want to charge your devices ahead of time, in case the power goes out.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON

After the front passes, heading north and east, precipitation everywhere will change to snow but become lighter. Winds will become somewhat lighter, but remain gusty. Temperatures Thursday afternoon should keep falling through the 30s and well down into the 20s.

Given that, when you're returning home from work Thursday evening, expect slick spots from continued light snow, and water from the morning freezing on roads.

INTERESTING POST-STORM ACTION

Perhaps the most interesting aspects of this storm will actually be something that will happen after the storm actually passes by.  It could have some effects here in Vermont, but first I need to set things up for you.

The storm will head north into Quebec, and there will be strong west winds behind the storm.  As I mentioned this morning, the Great Lakes aren't frozen like they usually are this time of year.  The strong winds, unstable air and the open waters of the lakes will set up some huge lake effect storms downwind from the lakes.

There's strong indications that an epic lake effect snow band will generate itself on Lake Superior, get more energy as it moves east-southeast across Lake Huron, then heads due east across Lake Ontario into the areas near and south of Watertown, New York.

This is especially true south of Watertown in the infamous snow belt area called the Tug Hill Plateau. They are so going to get slammed.

There's a blizzard warning for this area near and south of Watertown for an expected three to four feet of snow on the Tug Hill Plateau and one to two feet in surrounding areas.  This will be propelled by winds gusting to 50 to 60 mph.  You can imagine the huge drifts, zero visibility and difficulties with this situation.

Vermont won't get anything like that. But I've seen that in cases where there's such a powerful lake effect band with such strong winds, some Vermont higher elevations can get quite a bit of snow.

The lake effect snow band, while slightly weakened will extend across the Adirondacks. Generally, the remains of these snow bands skip the Champlain Valley as the Adirondacks block the moisture associated with these snow squalls.  Still, little upper level disturbances in this fast west to east flow behind the storm can help bring some snow from this lake effect into the Champlain Valley.

People in the Champlain Valley won't get much snow out of this, but an inch or two of accumulation could slicken up the roads Thursday night and Friday.  Just sayin'.

The real point of this little story is what happens when the remains of this snow band hit the central and northern Green Mountains. Since this thing is pretty narrow, not everybody in the mountains will get a lot of snow. But in my opinion there's the potential for six or more inches of snow somewhere in the mountains of northern Vermont after the main storm.

All because of this lake effect snow band.  The snow band could move back and forth for a time spreading some snow through the entire Green Mountain chain north of Killington. Or it could focus on a specific area and really come down.  Parts of the Northeast Kingdom could also get in on this action, especially since weather patterns suggest the atmospher might interact with parts of the lake effect stuff up there.

It's not certain all this will happen. But I think it might. The National Weather Service in South Burlington isn't focusing on this right now, because they have their hands full with the immediate storm.  This post-storm snow thingy is just something to watch.

Mostly because it could help make for another great weekend of  skiing and riding, between Thursday's high elevation snow and the post-storm snow showers.

AFTER THAT

It'll be a pretty chilly, wintry weekend across Vermont, which is to be expected as the calendar just turns from February to March. But another period of warm-ish weather seems likely for the first half of next week.  Again, that's something you have to expect now that we're getting into March.

Storm Update: Slushy, Windy, Then Cold

That snowfall forecast map from the Natonal Weather Service
again.  Valley locations might just get a slushy coating
out of this, if current forecasts verify. Heavy accumulations
would be limited to the places about 2,000 feet above
sea level. 

As usual, we'll update the status of that expected storm now that it's actually closer to hitting us here in Vermont.

Since yesterday, it seems the forecast models have warmed up this storm locally just a smidge.  If that comes to pass, most places around here won't get too much snow, except in the high elevations.

There are a few winter weather advisories for snow. One is in the two southernmost counties of Vermont, where two to six inches of wet snow is likely at elevations above 1,000 feet.

Parts of the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks over in New York could get similar amounts.

The rest of us, at least those of us not way up high in elevation can expect one to three inches of slush and goop, along with a cold rain, at least during the main storm.

That being said, if the temperatures drop a degree or two more than expected late tonight and Thursday morning, heavier snow would still be in play.

In fact, I do detect a slight disagreement between the National Weather Service offices in South Burlington, Vermont and Gray, Maine.   The Maine forecasting office is a little more bullish on snow accumulation near the Connecticut River, which would imply a bit more snow in eastern Vermont than is currently being forecast.

But not much, and the differences are all just noise.

By the way, if you plan to venture to Quebec tomorrow, don't. There will be wet snow and strong winds up there, especialy from about Montreal north. It'll be pretty messy.

Some light snow and rain will harass us today, but the main show still looks like it will hit late tonight and the first half of Thursday.  

The storm center will be over Lake Ontario and will swing a strenthening front through here late tonight and Thursday.  This looks like it will produce a relatively brief, but heavy thump of precipitation.

As it stands now, it looks like that big thump of precipitation will mostly be a cold rain in the valleys, but again, don't be surprised if more snow enters the picture. Temperatures are marginal.  The front that is coming through will be frisky enough to possibly give a few of us a nice rumble of thunder or two.

Strong southeast winds ahead of this will cross over the the Green Mountains, and possibly produce damaging winds along the immediate west slopes of those Mountains, especially in parts of Bennington, Rutland and Addison counties.

Places like Mendon, Rutland, Goshen, Brandon and Starksboro could see wind gusts of 60 mph or even a little more than that.  Winds along the west slopes of the Greens further north than this will also be strong and gusty, but perhaps not quite as strong as areas further south.

After the storm goes by we'll get three days of chilly weather, and lots of snow showers in the central and northern Green Mountains.

Part of that will be coming off Lake Ontario. Lake effect snowstorms out in western New York are somewhat rare this late in winter because much of the Great Lakes are usually frozen over this time of year.

It's been a warm winter, so those lakes are mostly ice-free. This opens the door for a big lake effect snowstorm in parts of New York. The Tug Hill plateau, the snowbelt near the lakes not far from Watertown, could get up to three feet of snow out of this.

Nothing like that here in Vermont. The high elevation snow Thursday night through Saturday will be measured in inches, not feet.

After a chilly weekend, the seesaw continues with a quick burst of warmer than normal temperatures for the first half of next week. That's at least the way it looks now

Enjoyed Vermont Taste Of Spring? Good! Back To Winter!

The National Weather Service snow map is back! Click on it to
make it bigger and easier to see. As you can see, the current
forecast has highter snow totals, more than six inches, in the
higher elevations, with less in the valleys, where a mix
with rain is more likely 

Well, that was a nice couple of spring days in Vermont, wasn't it?

Certainly more than warm enough to play in the snow.

If you don't like the snow, you got rid of some of it, especially in the valleys.  Plus, I believe sugarmakers got some early runs in for this year's maple syrup harvest.

This taste of spring is just about over now, and it's back to winter.  We're only in late February, so that's to be expected.  

Given the kind of winter we've had, you'd think we're overdue for another one of many mixed precipitation winter storms. You would be right, and such a storm is on its way.

This time, it doesn't look like there will be a big amount of sleet and freezing rain. But it will rain and it will snow.  Where what falls and when is the challenge.

Pretty much all the storms we've had this winter were a nightmare to forecast, given the temperatures in each one were near 32 degrees. Plus each storm brought complex temperatures to different layers of the atmosphere. If you were off slightly in temperatures, even a degree or so, the forecast would be a bust.

The upcoming storm, in anything, is going to be the most difficult of all to forecast. True, sleet and freezing rain are mostly, but completely out of the picture. But when the heaviest precipitation hits, will it be rain or snow?  Again, being off by a degree in temperature will throw the whole forecast off.

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington sees it, this will be an elevation dependent storm.  This type of scenario becomes more likely as we head into late February or March.  Overall temperatures have begun to warm up toward spring, so valleys tend to be more likely to support a cold rain.

But not always.

Anyway, it looks like there's going to be sharp differences between what goes on in the valleys and up the road 800 or so feet higher.

Here's how the NWS in South Burlington thinks things will play out.

The rest of today will be much cloudier and somewhat cooler than it's been for the past couple of days, but still on the mild side for this time of year. There will be a few spits of wet snowflakes and rain drops around, but it won't amount to anything, really.

There will probably be areas of light sleet and snow around tonight, causing a few slick spots as temperatures fall to near or below freezing.

On Wednesday, things will pick up a bit with somewhat steadier light snow, with a little rain in the valleys. It won't rain and snow all day, but it will be dank and wet and somewhat slushy.

Wednesday night and Thursday morning will bring the main show.  And the part of the forecast that is by far the trickiest

As heavier precipitation arrives, that will tend to cool the atmosphere, which favors snow. But slightly warmer air will trying to come in from the south and east, favoring rain, at least in the valleys.

National Weather Service meteorologist believe it will be cold enough for wet snow, even in the valleys. But it will be so slushy, and possibly mixed with rain, that the warmer low elevations will only get a couple inches of soggy snow.

Go up a few hundred feet in elevation and it would be a completely different scenario, forecasters believed as of this Tuesday morning. If you're up at an elevation of 800 or 1,000 feet, you could easily see four to eight inches of wet snow.  The mountain summits could see a foot or more.

Then there will be the local effects. On the immediate lee of the Green Mountains, on the eastern side, strong maybe even damaging downslope winds seem like they want to get cranking later Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Those winds could cause local power line problems and bring down a few trees. The downslope winds also tend to dry the atmosphere right up against the west side of the mountains, so precipitation could, maybe, be much lighter there.

Since this will be wet, heavy snow, there's definitely the risk of power failures.  If you live in areas out of the valleys, be prepared for that. The heaviest snow will come down on the eastern and southeastern slopes of the mountains.

Things will taper off Thursday afternoon.  Then, Thursday night and into the weekend, it will turn much colder.  Persistent snow showers will continue, especially in the northern and central Green Mountains, where several more inches of snow could pile up betweeen Thursday afternoon and Saturday.

This bodes well for the ski areas.  There, the warm, but rather dry weather over the past couple of days didn't cause much damage to the snowpack.  Plus, by the time the weekend hits, it looks like there will be a decent addition to the snow on the slopes.

By the way, I said it will turn much colder, but it's late enough in the winter in which cold snaps often don't have the bite they did in January.

This means highs on Friday and Saturday will be within a few degrees of 20, and lows will be in the single numbers. Cold, yes, but not unbearable.

It'll start to warm up again somewhat toward Sunday and Monday.

Bottom line, get ready for another messy storm that will probably make your commutes to and from work annoying  on Thursday and maybe cut your power.  And, unless you live in a warmer valley, you face a backbreaking chore of clearing heavy, wet snow after the storm is over.

Also, definitely be ready for surprises.  The valleys that are now forecast to get an inch or two of slush could end up getting much more, if the temperature is a degree or two colder than now forecast.  Or, the rain could creep a little further up the hillsides if it's just a degree or two on the warm side.

I'm sure there will be a few refinements and changes to the forecast before we get to Wednesday evening. We'll monitor!

Twenty Feet Of Snow In Turkish Blizzard?

Here in Vermont we can get really big snowstorms at any time during the winter.

However, mid-February to mid-March seems to be the time of year when we are most at risk for epic snowstorms.  It's certainly cold enough to snow at this time of year.  But the forces of spring are just starting to be felt.

Warmer air, milder than what you'd expect in December and January, feed into large storms. That increases the chances that precipitation will be heavier. If it's cold, that means a lot of snow.

Think the Blizzard of 1888, the Valentine's Day Blizzard of 2007, the epic snowstorm of early March, 2011 and the Pi Day Blizzard in March, 2017.

There's nothing I'm seeing in the forecast at the moment that suggests we'll get a big snowstorm, although some type of storm looks like it will come along Wednesday night and Thursday.

But two or three feet of snow is one thing, as the above examples show.  Imagine a storm that dumps 20 feet of snow.

Such a storm just happened in a community called Yuksekova, near the Iran border. Its elevation is around 6,400, so it's high up. That helps make the area prone to snowfalls.

But not usually like this.

The snow was so deep that some residents trying to shovel roofs to reduce the weight of the snow found themselves throwing snow upward, as we in Vermont would if we were trying to get a couple feet of snow out of our driveways.

Videos of the storm's aftermath shows snow that appears to be fairly wet and heavy, which probably made post-blizzard cleanup even more difficult.

It doesn't look like this is the first time such a big snowstorm hit this region, judging from a newscast I found on YouTube from January, 2019.

Here's some videos.

First one shows post storm cleanup around Yuksekova.  Looks like an absolutely beautiful area, too:



The next video appears to be the downtown area of Yuksekova.  There might not be 20 feet of snow in this area, but it still looks pretty disruptive. Watch:


Another video shows buried homes and walkways that look like canyons in the snow.

Why It's Hard To Predict Whether Vermont Will Have Spring Flooding This Year

Motorists slog through spring floodwaters near Enosburg, Vermont
in April, 2011. 

We here in Vermont are getting toward the start of the spring flood season, so it's only natural to start wondering if this year will be bad for that kind of nastiness.

At the moment, there are plenty of mixed signals on what kind of spring flooding, if any, the Green Mountain State sees this year.

First, some background. Flooding can and does occur at any time of year in Vermont. Ice jams during rainy, very warm January thaws can trigger floods, as they did in 2018.

Late spring and summer torrential thunderstorms can set off big local flash floods, as they have in many years, like in 2013.  Tropical storms heading north into New England we know can cause serious floods, as we remember from Irene in 2011.

Large autumn storms can sweep through and cause floods, as we saw big time last Halloween.  And of course, rain and melting snow can cause spring flooding in March and April.

Quite frankly, Vermont doesn't need any more flooding.  Last April, the kind of spring flood I'm talking about hit parts of central, southern and eastern Vermont, prompting a federal disaster declaration.

Then that even worse Halloween storm a few months back triggered serious flooding across the northern half of Vermont, prompting another federal disaster declaration. Yep, two such declarations within about seven months.

So, on to this spring. We might as well talk about it today, Sunday, since the outdoors does have a mild, spring-like feel.

Today's weather signals that we are now entering our first good thaw of late winter and early spring.  The first chance of any late winter or spring flooding comes late this week, but that is decidedly iffy. The chances that an expected pretty big storm late this week are pretty low.

That's because at this point, the storm looks like it will bring us a mix of stuff. It will probably include rain, but that rain will likely mostly just soak into the existing snowpack. Plus the storm will probably bring other types of precipitation, like wet snow, sleet and/or freezing rain.  If the storm ends up being mostly snow or mixed precipitation, that would actually add slightly to the risk of flooding later.

That's because there will be even more snow and ice locked up on the ground, waiting to melt.

Even if that happens, the amount of snow on the ground, and the amount of water locked up in that snow, is roughly normal for this time of year, says the National Weather Service South Burlington.

That NWS office issues a winter/spring flood outlook every other week this time of year, so that's where I'm getting this information.  A normal late winter snowpack implies a normal spring flooding season, if you ignore all other possible factors, which of course you can't do.

Moisture in the soil is near to just a little above normal, which is largely a legacy of last year's very wet autumn. River flows currently are also near or a little above normal.  There's ice in the rivers which could cause ice jams, but it's not a huge amount of ice. We've had a warm winter.

Lake Champlain also has a near normal level heading into the spring flood season.

All this means is it's a tossup as to whether you should think about any spring flooding in Vermont this year.

Spring flooding is a major concern for much of the nation this year.  

Last spring brought widespread, disastrous and in some places unprecedented flooding to much of the central United States, especially in places like South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Missouri.

The outlook for this year is pretty grim, especially in the eastern Dakotas, the upper half of the Mississippi Valley, around the Great Lakes and other parts of the Midwest, as The Weather Channel reports.   Of course, we've already had super serious flooding in the South this month.

In the bigger river systems like the Missouri, Mississippi, Ohio and other large rivers, you can make an educated guess ahead of time as to how serious flooding might be a month or two down the road,

Vermont lacks those big rivers.  In the large river systems further west, floods are slow rolling disasters.  Vermont floods are like a mugging.  They hit you in an instant, and just as quickly, they're gone.  It's hard to predict a mugger, and it's hard to predict a Vermont flood well in advance.

In some years, when the snowpack and the soil moisture and the rivers are high in late February, you can safely anticipate at least some flooding later in the spring. In normal-ish years like this, it all depends on what March and early April does.

If we have a lot of very wet storms over the next two months - either rain or snow - that can make the flooding risk skyrocket.  If we have a March and early April full of perfect sugaring weather - mild thawing afternoons and freezing nights - the snow melt is slow and we have a low flood risk.  A big bout of super warm, record temperatures, especially if accompanied by heavy rain, you get floods.

Long range forecasts are tricky, but some of those forecasts do predict a relatively stormy first half of March. Beyond that, you might as well flip a coin.

Climate change adds an additional twist.  The risk of heavier individual rain storms is getting higher.  However, that overall risk is a big picture thing.  You really can't tell when those bigger, heavier storms might hit.  The next monster storm could be next week, or it could wait five years or more. Who knows?

The only thing I can say is have your sump pumps ready, just in case. This year truly is a tossup.

Entertaining Weather Videos On A Slow Weather Day

Clear skies in the Northeast Friday allowed a great view of where snow
was on the ground, where it wasn't, what was frozen, what not.
Click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see details.

Things have temporarily gotten slow in the weather department, but don't worry, things will be pretty active around here by the middle and end of the week.

While we have some quiet weather moments, some goofy weather videos to share. And a photo.

The photo on the right is a satellite shot taken amid unusually clear skies in the eastern United States on Friday.  Click on it to make it bigger and easier to see the details of the current state of the winter.

The snow cover in New England ends just over the Massachusetts border from Vermont and New Hampshire. The Great Lakes are remarkably ice-free for late February. Even the Finger Lakes in New York aren't frozen.

You can also see that a large section of Lake Champlain is also free of ice. It almost certainly will not completely freeze over this year.  We have a few warm days coming. Even if it turns cold in March, the increasing sun angle would help erode new ice that forms at night.

Down in eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, you can also see an area of snow on the ground from a small storm the day before.  By the end of the day yesterday, that snow in the Southeast was mostly gone.

The clouds off the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts are caused by cold air blowing over the relatively warm waters of the Atlantic.  There were even a few ocean-effect snow flurries from these clouds Friday morning on Cape Cod.

Now some videos:

This one has been billed as a "carbon neutral way to prevent ice dams:"



Next up, stupidity of the day.  We see this all the time. People drive right into floodwaters, not knowing how deep it is, not caring how dangerous it is.  A lot of it is stupidity.

There's still a lot of flooding going in in England due to two immense storms over the past couple weeks.  Here, we see rescuers in elaborate safety gear with boats heading out to retrieve residents from obviously deep floodwater in one neighborhood.

You and I wouldn't drive down that flooded street, right? The turbulent water and the rescue crews would seem like dead giveaways not to proceed.  Not everybody thinks like that. Watch the rescuers shake their heads in disbelief:



In Michigan, volcanoes have been erupting last week.  Don't worry, no lava in Detroit, no pyroclastic flows in Ann Arbor. Instead, ice has piled up on the windy shores of Lake Michigan.  More waves pounding in get under the ice and water pressure creates these "ice volcanoes."  They're pretty cool:



Also, in Michigan, another icy phenomenon.  A curving current in a small river created a rotating ice disk, much like that larger, more famous one that formed in Maine last year.  Here's the mesmerizing Michigan ice disk:

Hurricane Dorian "Sharpie Gate" Alarmed Meteorologists And You Should Be Scared Too

The infamous Hurricane Dorian forecast map, doctored with a Sharpie, that
falsely indicated the storm threatened Alabama, when in fact
it did not.  

Remember Sharpiegate?

That was when President Donald Trump last year went to great lengths to insist that scary Hurricane Dorian had Alabama as a target.  Which of course was false, It seems like ancient history already, but it's still incredibly important, for reasons I will get to soon in this post.

Forecasters knew, at the time Trump said this, that Hurricane Dorian would miss Alabama and everything would be A-Ok there.

When it was pointed out that Hurricane Dorian would miss Alabamaa, Trump and his administration doubled down, saying forecasts indicated the storm would hit Alabama.   Trump even produced a map from the National Hurricane Center, crudely and falsley augmented with a Sharpie, showing that Dorian maybe would hit Alabama.

In the past month, news outlets, most notably the Washington Post and Buzzfeed News reported on a trove of documents, obtained under the  Freedom of Information Act, showing how alarmed and appalled scientiest like National Weather Service meteorologists were by Trump's Sharpie stunt.

According to Buzzfeed:

"President Donald Trump's fake hurricane map triggered panic, outrage and an internal revolt among top officials at the National Weather Service and NOAA. That's according to a trove of more than 1,000 emails realease Friday night...."

As Buzzfeed reports:

"Officials and scientists, both inside and outside the government, were horrified, the newly released emails show.

'For an agency founded upon and recognized for determining scientific truths, trusted by the public and responsible in law to put forward important science information, I find it unconscionable that any anonymous voice inside of NOAA would be found to castigate a dutiful, correct and loyal NWS Forecasters who spoke the truth,' Craig McLean, then the agency's assistant administrator, wrote in a Sept. 7 email to other top government officials."

Buzzfeed News continues: "Trump's fake map and the administration's insistence on defending it despite evidence to the contrary - dubbed #SharpieGate on Twitter - shows how the administration has prioritized politics over science even during a fast-moving, life-threatening situation."

It got to the point that NWS meteorologists feared retribution if they issued forecasts that were accurate, but contradicted Trump's opinion on things.

And there's the rub. The autocratic, oligarchical Trump administration will stop at nothing to erode public trust, mow over reality, all with the aim of preserving their ill-gotten power.

This is really important because the public counts on the National Weather Service to provide timely, life-saving information. When the NWS issues a hurricane, tornado or whatever bad weather warning, people understand that means business.

Meteorologists with the National Weather Service, and meteorologists in gemeral, take justifiable pride in warning the public when there is a weather emergency.   If the trust in the National Weather Service is broken,   lives will be lost. But I know Trump and his minions really don't give a crap about lives, when they're busy trying to create a Putinesque autocracy. And massage snowflake Trump's fragile ego.

I've seen firsthand how accurate, trusted National Weather Service products have saved the day

One that really comes to mind is the extreme floods with Tropical Storm Irene in 2011. That storm was roughly on par with the Vermont Great Flood of 1927.  In 1927, at least 84 Vermonters died in the flooding. In 2011's Irene, six Vermonters lost their lives.

Now, six fatalities is six too many. But the extremely accurate and timely warnings from the National Weather Service no doubt saved many lives.  A few days before the event, NWS/South Burlington basically started hitting the panic button. The risk is real, they said.

So, in the days leading up to Irene, tourists abandoned creekside camp sites, people prepared to leave for higher ground. People also knew to stock up on supplies in case roads were cut off, and new to sit tight through the storm if they were in a safe place.

I went off on this Irene Vermont tangent to help explain why Donald Trump's unprecedented self ego massaging Hurricane Dorian nonsense is so dangerous.

In Vermont during Irene, and in countless other weather emergencies, we relied on the National Weather Service to give us the information they needed to literally save their own lives.

Imagine if that trust disappeared. What if the National Weather Service wasn't regarded as trustworthy, prompting people to ignore their warnings? How many lives would be lost?

There are many reasons to be appalled by Trump's numerous shenanigans. This is one of the most dangerous.  The political appointees at the National Weather Service better understand they need to back off, and let the scientists do science.

Mid-February: When You Look For A Sign Winter Is Breaking. And It Has

Tuesday: The deep dark gloom of winter seemed like it would
never go away around my St. Albans, Vermont property

Much has been made about the mild winter across much of the United States, including here in Vermont.

However, here in the northern Vermont, this February has been a truly winter month.  Nothing extreme, mind you, but you know it's winter.  

Temperatures are running a little above normal so far this month, but we have also been making occasional excursions to below zero territory.  Snowfall is running a little above average, too.

Even though a lot of people like winter and want it to continue, I get a little ambivalent about it this time of year. There's certainly beauty in the white winter landscape. Dramatic, cold storms are fun for any weather geek.  Still, one often looks ahead, and so do I, toward spring.

Wednesday:  A chill north wind, but you could feel the warmth of the
February sun battling against winter. Photo was taken at 4:35 p.m.,
which would have been nighttime two months ago. 

Tuesday was dark, gloomy, wintry day in Vermont, I referred the weather then as the dog days of February.

 It was the kind of day when  you feel winter has been going on forever and it will never end. It snowed off and on. It was windy and raw. There was a thick blanket of snow and ice on the ground. It seemed a bit hopeless, frankly.

Wednesday was another day, and another attitude. If only in my imagination, the first crack in winter's grasp appeared to me on Wednesday, even if it was a wintry day by anybody's definition.

Now, I'm not saying winter is over, not by a long shot. Heck, it's going to be below zero tonight. And we will surely have our share of snowstorms, cold snaps, ice and winter chill to come in March and even in April.

But hear me out on what I felt yesterday was the first signs that this albeit tame winter is about to lose its grip.  It came when the snow lost its grip on my roof at 4:30 a.m. Wednesday.

Hopefully, in less than three months, my yard will look like this.

Temperatures rose Tuesday night to near 40 degrees. Enough to cause a little thawing. Just before temperatures starting crashing downward again, a couple hours before dawn,  the foot-thick layer of snow and ice covering our roof let go all at once.

The house roared and shook and swayed as all the snow and ice on both sides of the roof all slid off at once.  It was a wonder to behold, even if I had to shovel the compacted ice away from the front door so we could get outdoors.

During the mid-morning, another Arctic cold front tossed down a handful of snowflakes amid gusty northwest winds. Then the sky cleared.

Earlier in the winter, when the sun was at a weak, low angle, the temperature would have steadily dropped all day behind that cold front.  With the stronger mid-February sun, the temperature held stubbornly in the upper 20s, despite the north winds trying to drive the frigid air in.

The bottom line is, winter and spring battled it out Wednesday afternoon, and that battle ended in a draw, at least until the sun went down and the temperature would plummet.

Before it did so, the better, higher sun angle did one more favor. Our winter of mixed precipitation left a nearly two inch sold layer of ice on our driveway. Michelle Kwan could win another gold metal skating on it.

But the sun wore a small patch of bare pavement near where my truck was parked. The sun warmed the pavement, melting the ice around the bare patch.  I was actually able to expand the bare patch a bit.

With the strongest grasp of winter now broken, it now feels like we are entering the see-saw war between spring and winter.  Already, the subzero readings expected Thursday morning will give way to 40-degree temperatures by Sunday.

True to form, as we go through pretty much the entire month of March, we will see a few more below zero readings.  Just as in 2017 and 2018, it's possible we'll see the biggest snowstorm of the winter this year in March.  That's not a forecast, but who knows? It could happen.

However, the chances of mild, perhaps even sunny days keep increasing. Already, the normal temperature for today in Burlington is four degrees warmer than it was on February 1. Onward and upward!

The sun will keep strengthening, and the days will continue to get blissfully longer. The sun was still blasting down nicely at 4:30 p.m. Wednesday.  In December, it would already have been dark.

The battle for spring will be won several weeks from now, and maybe I'll fulfill my winter long fantasy of getting back in the garden, smelling the gorgeous organic aroma of mud and new blooms, and seeing the landscape turn to that delicious spring green.

I'll need to be patient with this, but bring it on!


i

Amazing Sounds When You Drop Ice Down A 450-Foot Hole. Also, Swimming In Antarctica

Some wild sounds when this chunk of ice was dropped down
a 450-foot hole in the ice down in Antarctica 

Scientists in Antarctica drill deep holes in the ice fields and glaciers of Antarctica, trying to discover clues about climate and the atmosphere tens or even hundreds of thousands of years in the past.

Popular Mechanics perfectly describes the sound you'll hear in the video. (I confess I thought of Bugs Bunny Looney Tunes, too).

According to Popular Mechanics:

"Princeton University geochemist John Andrew Higgins shared the video, which stars someone's hands only as they drop a chunk of ice down a 450-foot bore hole. The sound begins to bounce in layers, equal parts space laser and Old West shootout from a Bugs Bunny Cartoon."

A lot of the sounds you'll hear in the video below has to do with the Doppler effect. The Doppler effect the reason car horns sound like they're falling in pitch as you drive past them.

Says Popular Mechanics:

"'The first thing you hear as is the ice falling is the pitch of the sound changing,' (Researcher Peter) Neff explains in the video. 'That's the Doppler effect. Then when the ice hits the bottom of the bore hole, the sound doesn't only come straight up - the sound waves start to bounce off the sides of the hole. That's why you hear the plink! with sort of a heartbeat sound afterwards.'"

The scientists are taking ice core samples and finding some at the bottom that can be up to 800,000 years old. Air bubbles trapped in that ancient ice can give clues as to what the Earth's atmosphere was like eons ago, and how the chemistry of the air has changed over that time.

Here's the video. It replays several times so you can hear it over and over again.  Definitely turn the sound up, but headphones please if you are at work, out in public, etc.  You will want to hear it again and again. I know I did:



In a somewhat related development, an endurance swimmer recently decided to put on his Speedos and swim in a pocket of water around some Antarctic ice, to raise awareness of climate change.

Besides the activism, the videographer captures some really cool colors and hues in Antarctic ice and water.

Here's his video:

Two Cool Videos To Enjoy Even If You're Tired Of Snow

A very rare snowball fight in Baghdad, Iraq this week. The city was hit
by its first snowfall since 2008 and its most substantial
one since 1914. 

It hasn't exactly been the most extreme winter here in Vermont, but I understand if a few of you are already sick of snow and wintry conditions now that we've reached mid-February.

But still, let's face it. Snow can be really awesome.  Just refer back to earlier this month, after that big snowstorm and the skies cleared. All that fresh snow and a full moon and whitened mountains. So fresh! So clean! What's to complain about?

Maybe chopping at the ice from all the mixed precipitation we've had, and the hard packed ice that's now on my truck and driveway from when a foot of compacted snow slid off my roof last night.  But that's just one negative amid the positives o\f winter.

Elsewhere in the world, snow can be awesome, too. I have a couple recent viral videos to prove my point.

The first video is my favorite of the two.  It shows a snow squall a snow squall coming ashore along the Black Sea in the Artvin province of Turkey.

It's not the least bit unusual to see snow in the winter in this part of Turkey, but this incoming snow squall is just amazing. It looks like a solid wall. Watch:



The second video show snow in a place where such precipitation is definitely more unusual.

It snowed in Baghdad, Iraq last week for the first time in over a decade. The last time it snowed there, in 2008, it was a slushy mess that really didn't stick.  This week's snow in Baghdad was the first snowfall there that actually stuck and stayed for awhile since 1914, says USA Today. 

This time of year, Baghdad's normal high temperature is in the mid-60s and overnight temperatures dip into the low 40s. So yeah, this was odd.

The snow gave Baghdad some welcome comic relief from the incessant unrest and violence there.

In Baghdad's Tahir Square, usually a hotbed of demontrations, young men and women threw snowballs at each other, says USA Today.  Politics couldn't totally escape, as people drew anti-government slogans in the snow.

I really love this artistically done video of the snow in Baghdad this week. I hope you do, too:

Storm Dennis Causes Major British Disaster

Extensive flooding in England from Storm Dennis last weekend

The United Kingdom this week is busy picking up the pieces after Storm Dennis.

That was the storm that last weekend was billed as something that would possibly become the strongest storm on record in the North Atlantic.

It came close. The central barometric pressure of a storm is a good measure of how strong it is. Dennis bottomed out at 919 millibars, which is the third strongest storm on record in the North Atlantic.

It's also the ninth strongest non-hurricane storm on record for the entire Northern Hemisphere.  

It produced wind gusts of up to 159 mph in Iceland, but saved its worst destructive punch for Great Britain.  The center of Storm Dennis stayed well north and west of the British Isles.  So the waves and storm surges, while destructive, weren't the worst on record.

However, the vast reach of Dennis really screwed Great Britain.  Consider the storm's cold front at one point stretched from roughly Edinburgh, Scotland to Miami, Florida, an incredible distance of at least 4,200 miles.

That meant there was an immense feed of warmth and tropical humidity drawn far north by Storm Dennis. Which, in turn, meant downpours.  Some areas in Scotland and northern England had a month's worth of rain in two days.

Worse, another very strong storm, named Ciara, came through six days earlier with its own bout of heavy rain and flooding.  The result was some of the most serious inland flooding Great Britain has seen in decades.  Videos are at the bottom of this post.

Some areas in southern Scotland received more than six inches of rain from Dennis.

There were some 200 different flood warnings in effect across Great Britain due to the floods from Dennis, says the BBC.

The storm has left England, but rivers remain high, and some won't fall below flood stage for several days.

By the way, that warmth drawn far north by Storm Dennis brought record warmth to much of western Europe. They've had an incredibly warm winter there.  The result of this Dennis-related warmth and the balmy winter is a weirdly early spring.

The cold front from massive Storm Dennis at one point stretched from
Scotland to Florida guaranteeing a massive flow of tropical
moisture and flooding rains across Great Britain.

All this, once again, brings up the question of climate change. Was Storm Dennis a sign of this dangerous global warming?

I'll start with the caveat we're all familiar with: One storm or weather phenomenon doesn't prove or disprove climate change at all. Weather is variable, and freaks can happen, with or without climate change.  

The global warming scenario for storms like Dennis is complicated, though. Many scientists believe that mega-storms like Dennis in the North Atlantic would actually become less frequent as climate change worsens.

However, storms around much of the world, including Great Britain, will have the capacity to dump heavier rain than they do now.   That trend toward heavier precipitation events has already begun, and is expected to become worse.

Warmer air can hold more moisture than a cooler atmosphere. Under the right conditions, the added moisture in a toastier world can cause heavier downpours than what have generally occured in the past.

In any event, I'm sure many Britains are so busy cleaning up after the floods that they might not be thinking about the nuances of climate change.

Here's a couple Dennis compilation videos:



Here's a fairly long but worth watching compilation video of the widespread flooding in the UK:



Here's an equally good second-day compilation of Storm Dennis:



 For some reason, the visuals in this news report remind of Waterbury, Vermont during the epic Tropical Storm Irene flood of 2011:



An outfit called Cornish Walking Tours sounds like a great thing to sign up for, except for during Storm Dennis. Corning Walking Tours put out this video of storm waves battering St. Agnes, Cornwall:



On one small bright side, Storm Dennis picked up a little mess that it made and set everything right:

California Dreaming? Small Storm Producing An Indoor Kinda Day In Vermont

Mid-February "Dog  Days" as I call them.  A winter's accumulation of snow
on the ground this morning on my St. Albans, Vermont yard, with more
snow blowingaround.  It hasn't been an especially cold winter, but it has
been rich in snow, ice and rain.  Typically, mid-February is when
I start really pining for spring. 

This isn't exactly the Storm of the Century on this February Tuesday in Vermont, but it still makes you want to stay inside and curl up with a good book.

As of 9 a.m., that little burst of snow has come into Vermont, and it will probably snow the rest of the morning.

Not a biggie - we'll end up with one to three inches of hard to measure accumulation by the time it tapers off and/or switches to drizzle or patchy freezing drizzle this afternoon. Some areas in the mountains could pick up a bit more than three inches of new snow.

I said the snow will be hard to measure because the wind is picking up, too. That's blowing the snow around in many areas and will continue to do so. That is at least until temperatures go slightly above freezing west of the Green Mountains this afternoon, making the snow a little soggier and harder to blow around.

I'm not  quite as concerned about the wind as I was yesterday, but it still will be a factor for sure. There's a wind advisory over the Champlain Islands and northern New York.  Winds in the northern Champlain Valley will probably gust to near or a little over 50 mph this afternoon. Elsewhere winds might go over 40 mph, especially west of the Greens.

That's enough to take down a few branches and power lines here and there, even in the Champlain Islands, which are used to strong winter winds.  Yesterday, I was wondering about the risk of strong, damaging downslope winds along the west slopes of the Green Mountains.  Winds will definitely be gusty there today, but not as bad as some of the epic wind storms that sometimes strike those areas of Vermont.

There will probably be areas of drizzle, freezing drizzle and snow flurries into this evening, but it wo't amount to much.  Northern areas might see a few snow showers or isolated snow squalls Wednesday as a second cold front comes through.

Then we have yet another one to two day cold shot before it warms up again. Rinse and repeat.

The cold, windy, snow, grey day for me inspires me to post this video, too:

Surprise! Another Messy Vermont Storm On The Way

The familiar snow forecast map from the National Weather Service in
South Burlington. Click on it and make it bigger and easier to read.
Most places look they will get a quick thump of two to four
inches of snow, maybe less in the northern Champlain Valley

Surprise, surprise, surprise.

Or not.

Another mid-sized storm with a mixed of precipitation and hazards is coming to Vermont on Tuesday.

Sound familiar? It should.  After all, that's pretty much all we've gotten this winter in the Green Mountain State.

Already, my driveway up in St. Albans has a thick, hard, bulletproof layer of ice from all these storms that will probably never go away. I guess we'll add another layer to that glacier, huh?

Here's how the National Weather Service thinks things will play out:

Before the storm, this Monday, President's Day will be quiet. It was relatively mild this morning, with temperatures in the 20s.  Those temperatures won't rise today, because a weak cold front went through early this morning. Temperatures will drop quickly this evening then start to rise again after midnight as clouds and some wind arrives ahead of the storm.

This storm will feature a burst of snow, followed by some drizzle, freezing drizzle and, in some areas, a lot of wind. It will end with snow showers,  a possible snow squall on Wednesday and another fleeting shot of Arctic air.

This particular storm is racing northeastward and will zoom past us to our northwest on Tuesday. As it comes along, it will start us off with an initial burst of snow, especially in southern and central areas.  The snow could come down pretty hard in some areas, but it will only last a few hours, since things are moving along with this one so quickly.

Wind gust forecast map from the NWS/South Burlington.
Note the reds in the central Adironacks and spots of it
along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. Those
spots could get some damaging gusts Tuesday afternoon
Much of the Champlain Valley will see lesser, but still
possibly substantial gusts in the 40-50 mph range. 

Most places will pick up between two and six inches of snow.  The morning commute, especially south and west, will be most affected by this.  The snow will start to taper off and likely mix with or turn to drizzle or freezing drizzle during the afternoon.

It's possible, even likely, that parts of the northern Champlain Valley won't see a huge amount of snow, maybe one to three inches. That's because winds will be screaming strong overhead.

The mountains will work with that strong wind a few thousand feet up to block some of of the moisture from coming into the northern Champlain Valley, which would limit snowfall.

Those strong winds a few thousand feet up are a clue to what could be the biggest impacts from this quick storm.  While it's snowing, a temperature inversion will act as a lid, preventing that wind from mixing down to the surface.

But in the afternoon, it's looking like up and down motion in the air will allow some of those screaming winds above us to mix down to the ground.  In the Champlain Valley, especially on the islands, winds could easily gust over 50 mph in the afternoon.

On the immediate west side of the Green Mountains, wind gusts could get even stronger than that.  In those wind prone areas, it's possible you could see localized gusts to 70 mph.

This obviously raises questions about how well trees and power lines will hold up.

As of Monday morning, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has held off on any wind advisories or warnings.  They want more data to see whether those strong winds will indeed mix down to the ground where we live.  So stay tuned.

When you're driving home in the still-gusty late afternoon Tuesday, be on the lookout for areas of freezing drizzle and  light snow, which could create slick spots.

A secondary cold front might, maybe, could trigger a snow squall or two on Wednesday.  Then we get that quick shot of Arctic air from a sprawling area of high pressure that will cover most of the nation by Thursday.  On the front side of that high, north winds in New England will keep daytime temperatures down to the single numbers in many places. Kind of like last Friday.

Winds will shift to the west and southwest on Friday, which would bring in milder air for the weekend.