Weather Surprises Keep Popping Up Nearby And Beyond

Storm chaser Simon Brewer, who usually spends his time in the
Great Plains chasing tornadoes, had to travel to Glens Falls, New York
to capture this impressive wall cloud, that did produce a tornado. 

Although I don't have super shocking weather news to bring up today, there are still plenty of reports to confirm the weather is always surprising, in small and big ways.

First of all, I'm a little surprised I have to make this correction: 

Unlike what I said in yesterday's post, "no tornado is known to have touched down in that area," a tornado DID in fact touch down in that thunderstorm with the impressive wall cloud around Glens Falls.

The National Weather Service office in Albany New York confirms that Glens Falls storm, and presumably its wall cloud, DID produce a tornado.

The tornado was an EF-1 with winds of between 75 and 110 mph. It damaged at least one home and sheared off and uprooted many trees not far from Interstate 87 in Glens Falls. It actually crossed that busy highway, but luckily, it was a bit weaker by the time it hit that Interstate.

I'm impressed by how wide and long-tracked the tornado was for this far into the interior Northeast. Usually tornadoes are narrow and very brief.  This one was at one point as much as a quarter mile wide and the tornado traveled a total of 8.6 miles before lifting.

This was the second time within two weeks that a tornado touched down close to the southwestern Vermont border. In both cases, the tornado's parent thunderstorm moved into Vermont, caused straight line wind damage.  This time, Poultney was pretty hard hit by those winds.

WASHINGTON/OREGON STORMS

Speaking of surprising severe thunderstorms, it was eastern Washington State and Oregon's turn to endure supercells and damaging storms. It's fairly rare for conditions to come together in this part of the country for a lot of severe weather, but they sure did on Saturday.

Winds with these storms gusted as high as 97 mph in Washington, 85 mph in Oregon and 83 mph in Idaho.  I'm unsure if any tornadoes touched down with these storms. I'm sure local National Weather Service offices will be checking on that. There were certainly plenty of reports of damage in this area.

QUEBEC/CANADIAN YO-YO WEATHER

We here in Vermont have certainly cooled down from that record heat we and Quebec had last week.

That heat spread into much of eastern Canada as the week closed. Record highs included 93 degrees in Bathurst, New Brunswick,  31.8 in Gaspe, Quebec, 84 in Gander, Newfoundland and 82 in St. John's Newfoundland.

Up in Quebec, where temperatures were in the 80s and well into the 90s,  things had gotten ridiculously cool by this morning. Snow was reported in the Laurentian highlands this morning.

Don't worry, that snow won't work itself nearly this far south. We're done with snow until autumn.  But it will be remarkably cool for the season, with high temperatures in most of northern Vermont not making it past 60 degrees today. That's more typical for late April.  Monday will be quite cool as well before a warming trend kicks in to bring us up into the seasonable 70s by the end of the week.

The secondary cold front that brought in today's cool weather also managed to surprise me last night. It was expected to only produce sprinkles.  But there was widespread rains last evening across northern Vermont.  It wasn't super heavy, but my rain gauge in St. Albans, Vermont collected 0.12 inches of rain, and I was expecting nothing more than a trace.

As Expected, Severe Storms Roll Through Vermont; All Over Now

 Thunderstorm menacing Colchester, Vermont Friday evening. 

The forecast for Friday was pretty much nailed.

We were told several rounds and clusters of thunderstorms, some severe, would roll through Vermont during the afternoon and evening, and that's just what we got.

Despite my speculation that they might upgrade the slight risk of storms to enhanced, the level of activity pretty much exactly matched the criteria for the "slight risk," which is level two out of five in the alert level.

Slight risk means a few storms would become severe, but most of the area would be unscathed, and that's pretty much what happened.

Still, there were pockets of fairly substantial damage.

Poultney, in southwestern Vermont seem to take the brunt of the damage as two severe storms hit that down. The first, in mid-afternoon, knocked down numerous trees and cut power in South Poultney in the mid-afternoon.

Thunderstorm structure over Georgia, Vermont Friday evening

A second severe storm hit Poultney around 6:30 p.m., taking down many more trees and power lines.

Elsewhere, I saw photos on social media of a damaged barn in Westford. Numerous trees were down in places like Cambridge, Sheffield, Island Pond and Barton.

Down in Glens Falls, New York, there was a tornado warning. The storm produced a very pronounced wall cloud, a type of rotating storm structure that often produces a tornado.  However, no tornado is known to have touched down in that area.

At least most of us received some much needed rain.  I wouldn't call it the quality, slow, soaking rain we could have used. Instead, there were gullywasher downpours.

There was a lot of available moisture for these storms, so many of the downpours were especially heavy.  I know there was some street flooding in Burlington, and I saw a little bit of that in Milton and Colchester, too.

Burlington received just under an inch of rain from this storm. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans, Vermont caught 1.3" of rain, most of that in a torrential downpour that hit around 8 p.m.

Overall, the damage patterns, the downpours and the fascinating thunderstorm cloud structures out there made this pretty much a classic Vermont summer severe storm weather day.

The calm after the storm last evening in Georgia, Vermont. The
sun was trying to break through with light rain still falling
after a torrential thunderstorm has passed. 

As you got up this morning, I'm sure you noticed that wonderful change in the air.  It is so much less humid.

Today is a transition day, as we still have another cold front to get through later.

The front might be enough to set off a few more evening showers, but they will be light and scattered.  We certainly won't get any more loud thunderstorms to frighten the dogs.

That second cold front, as previously advertised, will bring us a shot of pretty chilly air for the last day of May and the first of June.  Clouds might, just might protect the cold spots from frost Sunday and Monday night, and the rest of us will get chilly, but not frosty.

Highs Sunday and Monday will barely make it to 60 degrees, as opposed to the low 70s we usually see this time of year. As far as I'm concerned, low 60s during the day are a LOT better than the mid-90s we saw n Wednesday.

There will be a warming trend later in the week, but it won't be anything extreme.  We'll probably get into the seasonable 70s.

We won't be getting much more rain, either.  There might be some light showers here and there during the week, but very soon, it's back to irrigating dusty gardens, I'm afraid.

Transition Out Of Heat Brings Vermont/Northeast Severe Risk Today

This image from the National Weather Service in South Burlington
shows much of Vermont and New York under a slight risk
of severe storms today (areas in yellow).

Today will be the last day of the unseasonable, record breaking  heat and humid that has enveloped northern New England and southern Quebec.

The price for this transition will be the risk of severe thunderstorms.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a large chunk of the interior Northeast away from the coast under a slight risk of severe weather. This includes all of Vermont except basically the Connecticut River Valley, which is under a marginal risk.  

A slight risk for severe storms is level two out of five on the alert scale for dangerous weather. A slight risk means that scattered severe storms are possible, but they would generally be not terribly long lived. An isolated intense storm could develop, too.

I'm thinking it's possible part of the slight risk zone could go up a step to number three on the alert level, which is "enhanced" risk.  That would mean a somewhat more widespread outbreak.  I would emphasize this idea of an upgrade to level three enhanced is JUST speculation on my part and NOT part an official National Weather Service forecast.

One thing that would help big storms get going is if sunshine  between now and early this afternoon helps destabilize the atmosphere. Satellite images early this morning showed a fair number of breaks in the clouds over Vermont and upstream in New York.

The main risks with today's severe weather threat in Vermont and much of the rest of the Northeastsare strong straight line winds and downbursts.  These could be enough to cause local damage to trees, power lines and maybe even structures.  Most of us won't see anything that bad, but a lot of us will hear thunder, see lightning and probably get a gusty downpour or at least a shower our of it.

There is even a remote chance of a brief spinup tornado once again from around Montreal south through the Champlain Valley and on down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians all the way to North Carolina.

There is some spin - changing wind direction with height - that could create some rotating thunderstorms. Remember, though: Just because a thunderstorm is spinning doesn't always mean it will produce a tornado. It's something to watch today, just in case.  Don't count on a tornado, though. It's a very, very low chance.

Another thing to consider today is the risk of so-called training thunderstorms. That's when a line of thunderstorms, like boxcars on a train track, go over the same spot over and over again. These storms can cause torrential rains and flash flooding.

The risk of this happening today is fairly low, because it's been so dry lately.  It would take a helluva lot of rain to set off a flash flood. It's still one more thing to keep an eye on, though.

There will probably be several rounds of showers and storms this afternoon and tonight affecting different parts of the state at different times.  Storms will probably start to ramp up in New York State by early afternoon and spread eastward into Vermont.

Everybody will get rain, but there will be winners and losers. Some places will get a nice, needed soaking and a few places will get a pathetic light showering. It's a crap shoot that's impossible to predict in advance. I'm rooting for a nice drenching here in dusty St. Albans, Vermont.

All this will leave us with cooler and drier weather on Saturday. A second cold front will pass through Saturday evening. It will turn quite chilly for the opening days of June, as has been advertised for days now.

A few places might not get past 60 degrees for highs Sunday and Monday, which is a far cry from the 90s earlier this week.  Also, if there are clear skies on any of these nights, a few colder spots would be at a risk of frost.  Most of us will be fine, though.

Incredible May Heat REALLY Shattered Records

Anvil clouds from the top of thunderstorms over the Adirondacks loomed
over my house last evening in St. Albans, Vermont.  The clouds were
welcomed as they ever so slightly tempered the record heat
that baked my town and the rest of Vermont Wednesday 

We have another episode of extreme heat down in the record books in Vermont, continuing a seemingly increasing trend of major record breakers.

To recap:  

Burlington's temperature rose to 95 degrees on Wednesday, breaking the old high record for the month of 93 degrees. The quote, unquote low temperature for the day was 72 degrees, also the hottest for the month of May.

Many, if not most years in Burlington see entire summers that don't reach as high as 95 degrees, so this is really something.

On Mount Mansfield, records don't go back nearly as far as Burlington's, but the top of mountain set a really impressive record.    It reached 85 degrees there, the hottest temperature recorded for ANY month. Records go back to 1954 up on Mount Mansfield.

Montpelier, Vermont also set a new record high for the month of May with a reading of 91 degrees.

If anything, the heat was even more intense in soutbern Quebec, where some incredible records were set. The Montreal area seems to be the epicenter of this heat wave

As Dennis Mersereau writes in Forbes, it got up to a shocking  98 degrees at the Montreal-Trudeau Internation Airport.  That's a record for the month of May and comes very close to the city's all time record high of 100 degrees on August 1, 1975.

STORMS, TOO

The heat contributed to enough instability to trigger some spotty severe thunderstorms where mountains managed to create updrafts.

A storm toppled numerous trees along and near Route 107 in Bethel. Other tree damage was reported near Waterbury and in Roxbury. The slow moving storms also dumped torrential rains in a small number of spots.  The rain was heavy enough to prompt a flood warning for a time in and around Hancock and Granville, Vermont Wednesday afternoon.

HOT RECORDS KEEP FALLING

This week's amazing heat is in step with some wild record highs in recent years around Vermont.

For instance, Christmas Eve, 2015 saw temperatures approach or even reach 70 degrees in parts of Vermont. Burlington had its warmest December day then, with a high o 69 degrees.

In February, 2017, Burlington's temperatures soared to 72 degrees, shattering the previous all-time high for tha tmonth, which had been 63 degrees.

On July, 2, 2018, the minimum temperature in Burlington was 80 degrees, the first time on record that a day's low temperature failed to drop below 80 degrees.

We still get cold spells, of course. Witness the snow earlier this month. But, consistent with climate change, the extreme warm spells are often getting more extreme, while the sharpest cold spells have for the most part lost some of their bite.

LOOKING AHEAD

The worst of the heat here in past, though it will remain oddly warm and humid for May today and tomorrow.  Clouds, in part from surprise Tropical Storm Bertha yesterday that came ashore in South Carolina, should  keep temperatures below 90 degrees in Vermont today. Still, it will be in the 80s, so it will feel uncomfortable. Little or no rain is expected.

Another very warm and humid day is on tap Friday, but changes are afoot. Those changes come in the form of some cold fronts approaching us.  The weather system should set off some badly needed showers and thunderstorms.

The drawback to this is that some storms may approach severe levels on Friday, with gusty winds being the main threat.

Storms might also drop some heavy rain. If several storms run over the same spot or two on Friday, which is possible, local flash flooding could ensue. However, it has been very dry, so flooding, if it happens, will be isolated at best.

That anticipated cool snap, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows near 40, still looks like a good bet Sunday and Monday.

All-Time Vermont Heat Record Could Fall Today

We can say it: Sure is hot out there!

Record heat and dry weather in St. Albans, Vermont on Tuesday.
May  is awfully early to need to start watering well-established
perennial beds, but that was the case in this very dry month.
Record heat is making the dryness worse. 

Several record highs fell in and around Vermont on Tuesday, and today could be even hotter.

First, here are some of Tuesday's records:

Burlington reached 92 degrees, tying a record set exactly a decade ago.  Montpelier also tied its decade old record of 87 degrees.

Elsewhere, Buffalo, New York reached 93 degrees, breaking the record of 88 set in 1944. Yesterday's 93 degrees was the hottest it's been in Buffalo on any date since July 4, 2018. Rochester, New York also set a record for the date of 93 degrees.

The quote, unquote low temperature in Burlington this morning was 72 degrees. If it stays above that level through midnight tonight, it will be the warmest "low" temperature for the month of May on record. The warmest low on record for May in Burlington is 70 degrees, on three dates in the past.  

Not only are temperatures here in Vermont starting out warmer in the morning than they did yesterday,  the atmosphere as a whole is a tiny bit warmer than it was on Tuesday.

This sets the stage for a possible real record setter.  The National Weather Service in Burlington early this morning was forecasting a high of 94 degrees in Burlington, today.  That would break the all time record for May of 93 degrees, set in 1977 and 2017.

Montpelier's all time May record of 90 degrees is also definitely threatened.

May heat waves have gotten more frequent in recent years.  Temperatures reached into the 90s in May of 2010,  2013, 2016, and 2017.

In 2017, it was 93 degrees in Burlington, tying that all time May high temperature that might be broken today.

The heat is exacerbating the dryness out there.  It's been 12 days since we've had any measurable rain. I found myself yesterday watering a well established perennial bed in May, the first time I've had to do that so early in the season.

Isolated thunderstorms could develop, especially over mountainous terrain today, but the vast majority of us won't see any rain.

The next good chance of rain is Friday and Friday night, when some cold fronts will come through.  There could be locallly  heavy rain with that, but the spots that get the heavy rain will probably be relativey few and far between. But all of us do have a shot of geting a least a little rain heading into the weekend.

By Sunday and Monday, temperatures will actually be fairly far below normal for early June.

Hot Spell Will Feel Hotter Because We're Not Used To It

Lilacs in front of my St. Albams, Vermonnt house. Hot weather
is making them come and go too fast. 

There was definitely a vaguely humid feel to the air this morning in St. Albans, Vermont as we got off to the start of a three, or even possibly four day spell of toasty weather.

At this point, temperatures look like they will be at near record levels this afternoon and tomorrow, with highs reaching 90 degrees or maybe even a little above that in the warmer valleys and 80s elsewhere in Vermont.

The record high for today in Burlington is 92 degrees and the record high Wednesday is 91, so those will be challenged. The all time record high for the month of May is 93 degrees, set in 1977 and 2017. There's a low chance that could be tied or broken.

Yes, it will be humid during this, but not as humid as during the worst mid-summer heat waves. Dew points are a good measure of how muggy it feels. Today and tomorrow, dew points will be in the low 60s.

Anything over 60 starts to feel humid for most people. If the dew point were at 70 degrees, that's oppressive and awful.

Of course, us humans get accustomed a bit to a consistent type of weather. This will be our first hot spell, so it will probably feel worse than it actually is.  So if you're going to be outside working or playing, be doubly aware that you need to drink plenty of water and rest when you need to.

One bummer about the early season heat is that it makes flowers come and go so fast.  Apple blossoms appeared and disappeared behind my house in just four days because it was so warm. My lilacs were barely starting to blossom Friday. Now they're already in full flower and will probably fade away by the end of the week. Oh well.

Lakes, especially bigger ones like Lake Champlain, are still cold, so you want to be careful boating.  If you fall into the water, you're in trouble.  The water is so cold it's paralyzing, and you could drown quickly because of that.  Consider postponing that boating excursion until later in the summer. Or at least stay wicked close to shore.

The cold Lake Champlain water will have an interesting effect on local weather today and especially tomorrow.

The chilly water will generate lake breezes, so it will be much cooler on the immediate shore of the lake than inland just a bit.

The collision between the cool lake breezes and the hot air over land will essentially form boundaries, which are little weather fronts dividing the cool lake air and the hot land air.  These little "weather fronts" might create just enough lift to trigger widely scattered showers and thunderstorms near them.

This hot air is pretty unstable,  but there won't be a lot of lift in the atmosphere, so any storms will need a trigger, like those lake breeze boundaries. Once these thunderstorms get going, there's a slight chance one or two of them will get strong.

But they won't last long, and the vast majority of us won't see these thunderstorms. But they are another hazard to watch out for if you're near the lake.

Chances for showers and storms increase late in the week, especially on Friday as a cold front approaches. It will remain warm and humid both days, but there's a lesser chance of either day making it to 90 degrees.

A relatively brief shot of unusually chilly air will come in for the the last day of the month Sunday, and the first couple of days of June.  It' might actually be cold enough for frosts in the colder valleys Monday morning, so if you're considering putting in your tomatoes in the cold spots, I'd wait a bit until we see how that upcoming cool spell plays out.

After A Horrendous Start, U.S. Tornado Season Fizzles

Tornado touching down in Iowa on Saturday. Despite this one,
the count of May tornadoes in the United States is well
below average, which is a rare bit of good weather news.

The United States has caught a break this month in one respect, anyway.

After a horrible March and April in which tornadoes killed no fewer than 53 people, and an April with a  way above average 350 or so tornadoes, things have quieted down markedly.

May and to a certain extent June are the peak tornado months, but May so far has been rather tame in that department.  

As of May 19, there had been just 47 tornadoes, with one death reported.  Since then, a few more tornadoes have spun up, but we are going to fall well short of the average of very roughly 300 May tornadoes.

Falling short in this regard is a good thing indeed!

Saturday was a relatively busy day with initial reports of 26 twisters to add to the 47 this month. But forecasts call for few if any real outbreaks of severe weather for the next several days.

The jet stream, which drives powerful parent storms that can spin off swarms of tornadoes this time of year, has retreated mostly north to near the U.S/Canadian border, robbing the Great Plains and Midwest of the proper conditions for a big outbreak.

Instead, there are regional outbreaks of rough weather caused by local conditions, such as a weak cold front interacting with humid air, or a clash of dry air and wet air in places like Texas.

One of the places that could conceivably get some severe weather is up her in northern New England late in the week, but even that prospect is quite iffy. Depending on the timing of a cold front which will push into some very warm, humid air that will be over us, some strong thunderstorms might develop.

But things will have to work out perfectly for that to happen, and in any event, a tornado is super unlikely with any strong storms we get toward the end of the week

Of course, tornadoes are not the only warm season weather hazard we need to worry about. Sluggish, slow moving storms that aren't favorable for tornadoes often dump boatloads of heavy rain, leading to flash flooding. We're still seeing plenty of that in various places, including Michigan, Florida and Nebraska, among others.

Also, NOAA says this year could see a very busy hurricane season because ocean and atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic favor a lot of tropical storm development in the coming several months.

Upcoming May Heat Wave Could Bring An Odd Weather Record

Like yesterday, more comparison photos. One of my frozen gardens
in St. Albans, Vermont on May 9, this year.,.........

Kudos to WPTZ-TV meteorologist Tyler Jankoski, who alerted us to one of those weird potential records that fascinate us weather geeks.

This is Vermont, afte rall, so there's been measurable snow in Burlington during several Mays in the 128 years of weather records there.

There have also been several Mays with temperatures of 90 degrees or hotter. But those two things have not happened during the same May in this past century and quarter.

Until likely this year. Barely, though.

On May 9 this year, 0.1 inches of snow accumulated at the official National Weather Service site in South Burlington. Now, there's a decent possibility that temperatures in Burlington could reach 90 degrees Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday and Thursday. That would be a new one for May!

I've been comparing this month a lot to May, 1977, when basically the same thing happened. It snowed in most of New England that year on May 9 - the same day of the month it snowed this year. However, Burlington only received a trace of snow in May, 1977, so it wasn't measurable there.

Same garden this morning as we ramp up toward 90 degree
heat later in the week. 

By May 21-23, 1977, the temperature was in the low 90s.  It was only one of two official May heat waves in Burlington. (It's officially a  heat wave in these parts if the temperature is 90 degrees or warmer on three or more consecutive days).

And on May 23, 1977 the temperature reached 93, to establish an all-time high temperature for the month of May.  That record was subsequently tied in 2017.

It's unclear whether we'll get three days in a row with 90 degree temperatures this upcoming week. It's even more doubtful we'll get to 93 degrees or past that, but you never know.

However, it's amazing how weather has repeated itself so precisely in May, 1977 and 2020.

I'm not sure I'm loving the idea of such hot weather already. Sure, I detested the snow earlier this month and have really enjoyed the sunny, warm, but not hot conditions over the past week.  It will turn more humid during the upcoming hot spell as well, so it will be uncomfortable.

Fortunately, it looks like we'll continue the pattern of May, 1977 this year. That year, in 1977, high temperatures cooled to the 60s and 70s during most of the final days of that month. Longer range forecasts suggest the same will happen this year.

Not that history will keep repeating itself - it probably won't - but the subsequent summer of 1977 was for the most part coolish except for one week of exceptional heat in mid-July that year.

Time For Heat Waves To Begin: How Many Record Highs This Summer?

Amazing what a week of warmth can do. This is May 14 in my St.
Albans yard, just as weather was turning warm after a cold snap....

It's Memorial Day weekend, as we all know, so it's the unofficial start to summer, goes the cliche anyway.

It's also the unofficial start to the season of punishing heat waves, at least in the Northern Hemisphere.

Things are off to a roasting start with record highs possible on the West Coast, big time in Siberia, and maybe even some challenged records coming soon to Vermont and the rest of northern New England.

I mentioned the Siberian heat the other day, but it really  has gone off the charts in the past couple of days.  There's a town way up in northern Siberia that has a normal high temperature this time of year of 32 degrees. The record high for the date had been 54 degrees, but the temperature soared all the way up to 78 degrees.

That's basically as if temperatures here in Vermont were in the mid-70s in February.
t
The heat isn't, and won't be as extreme elsewhere, but it will be felt.

Excessive heat watches are in effect for California and the Desert Southwest this upcoming week.

-----and this is May 21, same view after just a week of warm sunshine. 

I know, I know, it's always hot in the summer in the Desert Southwest.

But by mid to late week, temperatures will be right around record highs in places like Las Vegas, where it would get to between 105 and 110 degrees. Hotspots like Lake Havasu City and Bullhead, Arizona could get as high as 115 degrees, and Death Valley could flirt with 120 degrees.

Ouch!

In central California, in places like Sacramento, temperatures are likely to get into the low 100s. Even the normally chilly San Francisco Bay area will share in the heat.

So will Vermont, but of course it won't reach 100 degrees.

It's already been quite warm, a nice reversal from our snowy Mother's Day weekend. It got up to 87 degrees in Burlington yesterday, though very low humidity made it feel anything but oppressive. Normal high temperatures are around 70 this time of year.

A weak cold front passed through northern Vermont and will do the same in southern Vermont today, cooling temperatures slightly and temporarily today and Sunday. Highs should "only" be in the mid to upper 70s both days, still pretty toasty for this time of year.

A lot more heat, this time accompanied by our first real humid spell of the year, comes in Tuesday into Thursday. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the hottest, with everybody well up into the 80s with maybe a few places touching 90 degrees. That could endanger a few record highs.

There will probably be some afternoon showers and thunderstorms around Wednesday and Thursday amid the humid conditions.  It's too soon to tell whether any of them will be strong. But, as noted yesterday, the rainfall is unlikely to be extensive enough to solve the growing dryness around here.

Flash Drought? N. New England Not There Yet, But.....

Irrigating my raised beds last evening in St. Albans, Vermont. The
weather has been gorgeous, but if this keeps up for a few
more weeks, we could find outselves in a drought. 

We are continuing along with our spell of gorgeous late spring weather.  What's not to like? Day after day of wall to wall sunshine, comfortably warm temperatures, a decent breeze to keep the black flies at bay.  It's all good, right?

Well, leave it to me, the prince of weather darkness, to cast a negative light on all this bright sunshine.  

The ground is rapidly drying out in northern New York and the northern half of New England. That includes Vermont, mostly north of Route 4.

We're certainly not there yet, but this weather pattern has the feel of the early stages of a flash drought.

We all know flash floods, right?  In torrential rainstorms, streams and rivers go from perfectly fine to dangerous, raging water in a flash. Hence the name for this type of flood.

Droughts come on much more slowly, over a period of months, seasons, even years.  But sometimes, the water situation is fine, and then you get a spell of just a few weeks in which Ma Nature turns off the water tap, atmospheric conditions cause rapid evaporation of what moisture you have and you suddenly find yourself in a drought.  It can take just a few weeks, which is well, a flash if you're timing drought development.

I want to emphasize here that the North Country is NOT currently in a flash drought.  The latest weekly Drought Monitor shows an area depicted as abnormally dry over northern New York. That's a step below a minor drought. Otherwise, all of New England is OK with the amount of water in the ground and the aquafers.

A lot of that is because we had a very soggy autumn, and adequate precipitation over the winter. As we got into April ground water amounts were at or above normal. April was wet enough over southern Vermont, but dry in the northwest.  Still, no alarm bells with that. It wasn't terrible.

Here's why I've gotten more concerned about a rapid decline into drought. May has been dry.  We've also had a lot of sunny, breezy days. Many of those came before the trees leafed out, so the sunshine and better able to reach forest floors and dry them out.

This past six days have been a remarkable run of very dry weather. I don't remember the last time we had six days in a row with relative humidities in the 15 to 30 percent range. This state of affairs should last into early next week.

This is already having some negative effects. Some forest fires broke out in Maine this week, for instance.

Near constant sunshine on these long May days are further drying things out.  If it rains at all over the next week, which is iffy, it will be light.

The weather will probably turn more humid by the middle of next week, but no big storms are coming. There might be a few hit and miss showers and thunderstorms next week. However, no soakers are in the forecast.

Right now things are great for planting and outdoor work, and your garden should be just fine if you irrigate it.  However, if this keeps up, well drillers will be busy, and some households on wells might run out of water over the summer.

That would be especially bad this year, because the coronavirus pandemic dictates that we must wash our hands, and everything else for that matter, very frequently. That's hard to do without water.

Don't get me wrong, I've been greatly enjoying this string of beautiful days.  However, I would love to hear the drum of some nice overnight downpours every once in awhile to keep the very Green Mountain State that color.











Normal rains could return in a couple weeks and we'll be fine. However, a lot of factors are combing to rapidly dry us out

Hot Arctic, Bad Hurricanes, Carbon And Coronavirus: All Bad Climate Change News

A few reports, studies and breaking news this week have all been bad news in the climate change department. Let's get into them:   

Recent temperature depiction of the Arctic.  The more orange, the
further temperatures are above normal.  Notice Siberia and the
area around the North Pole have the deepest orange.

ARCTIC HEAT

The (sort of) breaking news is a weird Arctic heat wave that has spread from Siberia and is reaching the North Pole and parts of Greenland. 

As noted in Gizmodo, temperatures at the North Pole will probably get a bit above freezing in the next few days.  For most of us, temperatures in the low to mid 30s most certainly does not constitute a heat wave. 

But such temperatures are odd for the North Pole, especially this early in the season.  Plus, it gets the Arctic off to an early start to the melt season. 

Same is true in Greenland.  The warmth has gotten the melt season going two weeks earlier than normal.  True, not a huge amount of ice has melted in this heat wave, compared to some mid-summer epic melts in recent years, especially last summer, which saw record melts in Greenland. 

As Gizmodo points out, though, this year's early melt exposes older dirtier snow sooner in the year than nornal. This old snow and ice can then absorb more warm sunshine during the rest of the summer than newer, whiter, fresher snow and ice would. This would bring up the risk of major melt events later in the summer. 

We should care more about Greenland's melt than Arctic Ocean melt.  If ice floating on the sea melts, it won't raise global sea levels. But ice melting off the above sea level glaciers in Greeland flow into oceans, raising their levels globally. 

Meanwhile, Siberia is once again on fire after its warmest winter and spring on record. Fires have already crept north of the Arctic Circle. Gizmodo reports there are even some "zombie fires" which smoldered in buried peat all winter and then sparked back up again amid the current record warmth in high latitude Siberia.  

TURBOCHARGED HURRICANES

Climate change appears to be making hurricanes and typhoons and such more intense, according to new research from NOAA and the University of Wisconsin-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. 

As The Weather Channel reports:

"The researchers discovered that the probability of a tropical cycle having Category 3 or higher wind speeds (at least 111 mph) increased by aboug 15 percent between the first and last halves of the analyzed satellite data. This corresponds to about an 8 percent increase per decade over the period of the study. The proportion of all tropical cyclones exceeding major hurricane intensity showed a similar increase of about 6 percent per decade."

The largest increase in bad hurricanes was in the Atlantic Ocean, but other influences might have helped increase the odds of such storms, too. 

CARBON/CORONAVIRUS

Daily global emissions of carbon dioxide fell by 17 percent from the same period in 2018 as nations locked down their economies to battle the coronavirus pandemic. Most of that decrease was due to less travel and less industrial output. 

I suppose that's good news for people who are not fans of climate change, but obviously we would have all been better off without the pandemic.

Also, this cut in carbon emissions won't really dent the pace of climate change. Economies are already opening back up, and emissions will rise correspondingly.  Even a sustained 17 percent reduction in carbon emissions lasting years wouldn't really solve the problem. 

Said Richard Betts, head of Climate Impacts Research at the Met Office Hadley Centre in England said, "It's like we're filling a bath and have turned down the tap slightly, but not turned it off - the water is still rising, just not as fast. To stop the bath overflowing, we need to turn the tap off."

So yes, the world is rightly consumed with battling the pandemic, but we still need to deal pretty intensely with climate change at the same time. 

Devastating Michigan Floods. North Carolina Is Next

One of the failed dams causing serious flooding in Michigan
yesterday and today. 

A big flood disaster has been unfolding in Michigan the past couple of days.

Torrential rains have hit the state since Saturday, and as the rains tapered off, the situation actually worsened.

The Associated Press reports that two dams on the Tittabawassee River in Midland County failed, and a flood crest was heading toward the city of Midland, population of about 41,000.

About 10,000 people have been evacuated.

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer warned that downtown Midland could become submerged under nine feet of water. Midland is about 140 miles north of Detroit.

Another concern is that a Dow Chemical plant is in the path of the flood waters. So it's not good. Video is at the bottom of this post.

Some parts of Michigan received up to seven inches of rain over the past few days, causing flooding across much of the state. The heavy rain is also sure to cause some of the Great Lakes to rise further, exacerbating flooding, as the lakes are already at near record high levels.

One of the breached dams in Michigan, the Edenville Dam, was built in 1924. As of 2018, the state of Michign rated it as in unsatisfactory condition, according to clickondetroit.com.

Last November, an Associated Press investigation revealed that at least 1,680 dams in the United States are unstable enough to pose a risk to people downstream.

The actual number of such dams is higher than 1,680 because some states refused to release data to reporters, and a few states don't rate dams at all due to a lack of funding.

Now, as parts of Michigan floods, attention is turning to a huge risk of flooding today in North Carolina.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center put western North Carolina in a relatively rare high risk zone for excessive rainfall today.

Around four inches of rain fell in that region yesterday, and another four inches or so is expected today.

Flooding, landslides and debris flows are all an almost certainty today in the mountainous region in the state.

The Weather Channel reported earlier this year that 41 percent of all U.S. flood deaths covered in one research project were on high risk excessive rain days, which are posted about 15 times per year.

Here's a quick video of Midland, Michigan from early this morning:



The scene around one of the failed dams on Tuesday:

Mount St. Helens Blew Up 40 Years Ago This Week

Mount St. Helens erupting in May, 1980. At this point in the photo, the entire
north side of the volcano is falling away in a massive landslide
as the ash cloud just begins to rocket upward and laterally. 

This isn't a weather or climate story per se, but it is related.

People in Washington State are this week marking the 40th anniversary of the dramatic eruption of Mount St. Helens.  

It was the worst volcanic eruption on record in the continental United States, killing 57 people.

As the Seattle Times notes, the north flank of the volcano collapsed in an enormous landslide that buried 23 square miles of a river valley to an average depth of 150 feet. The blast sent rocks and a superheate ash cloud that toppled 230 square miles of forest in just three minutes.

Large swaths of a Washington State went dark as night under the immense ash cloud.

The blast had some effects on the skies around the nation for days afterwards.  I remember the ash cloud a few days after the eruption turning the May blue sky over Vermont a sickly slate gray.  The setting sun didn't seem to hit the horizon. Instead, it faded to nothing in the haze as the sun sank low in the west.

As dramatic and huge as this eruption was, it was actually too small in the grand scheme of things to actually affect worldwide weather and climate to any noticeable degree.  Or even that week here in Vermont. As the ash dimmed the skies over Vermont, daytime temperatures the week after the Mount St. Helens eruption rose into the 70s and 80s.

Large volcanic eruptions - much bigger than Mount St. Helens - can belch so much ash and soot into the air that it circles the globe and dims the sun, temporarily cooling the surface of the Earth.

One relatively recent example of this was Mount Pinatubo, which erupted in the Philippines in 1991. It pumped enough gunk into the upper atmosphere to briefly stop the upward trend in global warming around 1992.

A more dramatic example was Mount Tambora in what is now Indonesia back in 1815.  That massive volcano is thought to have created the "Year Without A Summer" in 1816. It caused global cooling, with some examples of that in Vermont. There was a June snowstorm that year, and hard frosts and freezes in July and August.

The effects of these massive eruptions on climate tend to last only a couple years as the ash particles from these volcanos slowly fall out of the atmosphere.

Bay Of Bengal Cyclone Could Turn Very Deadly

Cyclone Amphan, that swirl i the southwestern Bay of Bengal, is
expected to hit near the area colored in pink on Wednesday.

While we in the United States are watching weak Tropical Storm Arthur, and a semi-related flood threat in the Carolinas, a much more dangerous storm is brewing in the Bay of Bengal.

Cyclone Amphan strengthened rapidly to a Category 5 storm Sunday with top winds of 160 mph.  A cyclone is what they call a hurricane in the Bay of Bengal.  

As the storm heads north, it's pushing a storm surge ahead of it. The upside down "V" shape of the Bay of Bengal tends to worsen and pile up storm surges up higher. Where Amphan is expected to make landfall, somewhere near the India-Bangladesh border, is flat and low, making the effects of onrushing storm surges all the more deadly.

Cyclone Amphan will probably weaken somewhat before landfall on Wednesday, but that's too little, too late. The cyclone is already pushing a lot of water north, and will continue to do so, even if it becomes somewhat weaker.

A somewhat similar cyclone in 1999 killed about 9,000 people in this area. 

As Bob Henson in the Weather Underground Category 6 blog writes:

"Warning systems have been greatly improved in India and Bengladesh over the 20 years since the Odisha cyclone. However, the region's geography and high population means it is still exceptionally vulnerable, and Amphan will need to be taken seriously by all concerned. The novel corornavirus pandemic will no doubt complicate evacuation and sheltering in myriad ways."

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Arthur had maximum winds of just 45 mph this morning. It'll brush eastern North Carolina with breezes and just a couple inches of rain today.  It will then turn toward the east, away from the United States and then largely dissipate.

A second nearly stalled storm, the cut-off low that I referenced in this here blog thingy yesterday, will crawl southeastward after causing flooding around Chicago, Michigan and other areas near the Gerat Lakes. As the storm heads toward the Southeastern United States, it will interact with tropical moisture and cause potentially flooding rains in western North Carolina and southwestern Virginia over the next few days.

Up to seven inches of rain is expected near Ashville, North Carolina this week.

Meanwhile, up here in Vermont, that blocked up stalled high pressure system in southern Quebec will keep moisture away from us pretty much all week, meaning you'll really have to water your gardens.

Because of mostly clear skies at night early this week, early morning temperatures will be a bit cool for this time of year tomorrow and Wednesday.   It'll be cold enough in the valleys of the Northeast Kingdom for some frost, but that's typical for this time of year.

The vast majority of us will be fine and frost free during this spell of fair weather. Daytime highs will be mostly in the 60s early this week, but climb into the 70s during the second half of the week.

Weird Storms, Just Not Here

Turns out this probably WAS a tornado in Wilton, New York which
is in Saratoga County, not too far from the Vermont border. 

That strong weather system that affected New York and New England did create at least one tornado, and meanwhile, new storms are brewing that could cause trouble in parts of the eastern United States. Just not in Vermont.

Let's get into Friday's storm damage, then we'll get into the new storms that are pretty interesting.

In yesterday's post, I showed a photo that might have been a tornado in Wilton, New York. I wondered if it might have actually been a microburst or a hail shaft.

Nope. Looks as if that Saratoga County storm DID produce a tornado.

The National Weather  Service office in Albany, New York said the EF-1 tornado had top wind speeds of between 85 and 90 mph, traveled 1.8 miles and was about 50 yards wide. It damaged the roof of a warehouse, and toppled many trees, some onto houses.

The National Weather Service in Albany also reported something called a macroburst caused damage in an international sounding section of Herkimer County, New York, particularly affecting the towns of Russia, Norway and Ohio.

A macroburst is a burst of wind from a strong downdraft reaching the surface. As the name implies, it's bigger than a microburst, which cover much smaller of an area, but still causes a lot of damage.

The New York microburst had winds of 80 to 100 mph and covered an area 10 miles wide and 25 miles long.

Now that those storms are long gone, we have others to deal with. And they're a little strange.

First, there's Tropical Storm Arthur off the northeast coast of Florida. I'm calling this one weird because it formed pretty early in the year.  You usually don't start seeing the first purely tropical storms unti July.

Arthur is going to remain weak as it heads north. It'll brush the North Carolina coast with gusty winds and heavy showers on Monday, Top winds with Arthur are expected to stay at 60 mph or less, and most if not all of those winds will remain offshore.

Early season tropical storms aren't as weird as they used to be, though.  There has been one before July 1 every year since 2014.  In 2014, the first tropical storm didn't form until July 1. Coincidentally, its name was Arthur.

The second weird storm is something that will meander around the Midwest and East through the week.  It's a cut off low, meaning it has removed itself from the flow of the jet stream. There's nothing to push it along.

So it will sit and spin, spreading heavy, slow moving rains around the Great Lakes today and tomorrow. That's bad news, because the Great Lakes are already at near record high levels, so they don't need more runoff.

The heavy rains will shift to the Mid-Atlantic later in the week, especially around Virginia and North Carolina, raising the risking of flooding there.

This isn't cast in stone, because cut off lows are notoriously hard to forecast. The heavy rains might set up in different locations than currently forecast.

However, depending upon your outlook, this cut off is either great news or somewhat bad news for us here in Vermont.

It's good news in that it will allow that high pressure system in Quebec to sink south over us during the week, creating a long stretch of at least partly sunny and mild weather.

It's bad news in a way for northern Vermont. We finally got some good rains Friday, and could use a little more. It looks like it's going to be a dry week, though southern Vermont could get some rain early in the week.

Worst Storms Were In Central New York/New England; Unknown If Tornadoes

Radar image of a dangerous storm heading into southwestern Vermont
last evening. Where the blue line and arrow is drawn in, the apex
of the backward "C' shape likely had damaging straight line
winds.  The red box was a tornado warning as radar
detected some spinning in the northern part of this storm. 

The severe weather in the Northeast materialized pretty much as expected yesterday, cutting a swath through western and central New York and finally through central New England.

A tornado watch was in effect for this event, and some of the storms were definitely rotating. However, it's unknown whether any tornadoes touched down.

 I'm sure National Weather Service offices in Albany, New York and in Massachusetts and New Hampshire will look into this.

The most interesting and dangerous cluster of storms got going north of Utica, New York. It promptly triggered a tornado warning.  A house in the path of this tornado warning lost its roof in the storm, but it's unclear if it was a twister or straight line winds.

The storm continued to cause damage, and occasional tornado warnings as it moved eastward into Saratoga, Washington and Warren counties of New York, just west of the Vermont border.  There were a lot of trees down, some damaged houses and roads blocked by debris. At least 36,000 people lost power in that area, according to the Glens Falls Post Star. 

The Post Star posted a photo of what they said was a tornado in Wilton, New York, but I'm not convinced by the photo. It could also be a downburst or a hail shaft, in my opinion.

The Glens Falls Post Star displayed this photo taken by Adam Colver
of what they said is a possible tornado in Wilton, New York. (Behind
the red brick part of the building). This feature in the storm could
also be a shaft of falling hail or a microburst. 

The line of storms then moved through Bennington and Windham counties, triggering tornado warnings around Sunderland, in southwestern Vermont, and the Brattleboro/Dummerston area in the southeast.

Again, it's unclear whether there were any actual tornadoes. The rotation on radar images in this storm did not look particularly intense. But this area is pretty distant from radar sites, so the quality of the storm images wasn't great.

There were reports of trees and wires down along the path of this storm and particularly where the tornado warnings went off. But this damage could easily have been caused by straight line winds and not anything tornadic.  If it was a tornado (which I kind of doubt) it would have been a fairly weak one.

The cluster of storms moved on into southwestern New Hampshire. I think slightly flatter ground there helped the storm intensify, and damage to trees and even buildings was greater than in Vermont.

On the southern end of this cluster of storms, high winds tore the roof off an apartment building in Holyoke, Massachusetts, displacing about 140 people. Again, it could have been straight line winds. I imagine weather experts will examine the damage in Holyoke to determine what caused it.

Further north in Vermont, there were strong to severe storms from about Middlebury to Montpelier to Bradford and points south, exactly as forecasters expected. There were reports of some trees and wires down with these storms. The storms in central Vermont were not tornadic. No tornado warnings were issued for this area, and there is no evidence of any kind of spin up that I could see.

Further north, in the quote, unquote more stable air, the parent storm system created a pretty good punch.  The line of heavy downpours, with some embedded thunder, managed to produce a wind gust to 47 mph in South Burlington. That's not severe, but still was kind of impressive.

The same storm system did more good than harm around my area in St. Albans, Vermont.  I got 0.88 inches of rain, with most of it coming within an hour during gusty showers.  We needed the rain, so I'm grateful that came through.

There's no severe storms in the forecasts now, but the predictions are pretty uncertain as to what will happen with our weather over the next few days.

A storm system will set up and sort of sit and spin over the central Appalachians over the next few days.  An early season subtropical storm seems to be forming off the coast of Florida and will get absorbed by that sitting and spinning storm

Meanwhile, fair weather high pressure will want to sink into northern New England from Quebec.  This will want to clear the skies over us.  So which wins? The rain to the south or the fair weather tothe north? Hard to tell, but as it looks now, we might get a period of rain Monday, then things will start clear out for the rest of next week. No promises, though.

Also, don't worry about any new outbreaks of late season chill if the Canadian high pressure system wins. Yes, it is from Canada, but it's not a cold batch of air.  Also, this fair weather system is, or will be, sitting over southern Quebec.

That's far enough south so that the warm May sun will keep raising the temperatures within this zone of fair weather, The upshot for us is we'll get near normal,  to perhaps slightly above normal temperatures by the end of the upcoming week.

Tornado Watch Much Of New England, Including Southern Vermont

UPDATE 4 p.m. 

As you might have already  heard, the National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch for the southern four counties of Vermont, all but northern New Hampshire much of central New York and most of Massachusetts.

That means tornadoes are possible. If you are under this watch, continue doing what you're doing, but just have a reliable source of weather information next to you so you can hear any warnings come through.

If, on the off chance you get a tornado warning, march right down to the basement with your weather radio or weather source and stay put until you get the all clear. If no basement, an interior windowless room will do.

This isn't meant to be alarming. Just a precaution. Most people in the tornado watch area will not get a tornado warning. (A warning means a twister has been spotted or a potential one is on the radar screens).

So far at least, the forecast is playing out as expected. The northern third of Vermont has had some rain, and it's remaining pretty much overcast. And it looks like another batch of steadier rain is moving in, That is helping stabilize the atmosphere and limiting thunderstorms. There might be a strong thunderstorm or two up north coming up, but it won't be as extensive as further south.

Further south, there's a little sun, better dynamics and more shear, which is winds changing in direction and/or speed with height.  That will allow some thunderstorms to spin, especially if any supercells form ahead of the main band of strong storms.

The tornado watch lasts until 10 p.m. tonight, but it might expire in Vermont a little sooner than that as activity shifts to the east late this evening.

By the way, and this is important, if you get a severe thunderstorm warning but not a tornado warning, still take that very seriously. The worst of these thunderstorms will be capable of causing as much straight line wind damage as a tornado would.  And the straight line winds with these storms will be more widespread than any tornadoes, if any twisters form at all.

There will almost definitely be some severe thunderstorms scattered around southern Vermont in the next several hours. Tornado chances are iffier, but as you can tell, still possible.

UPDATE: 11:30 a.m.

The threat of severe storms has been pushed north to encompass most of Vermont.
Rotating supercells are possible in the yellow and orange zones.  There's still
a small risk of brief tornadoes in this area, but the main danger will
be strong damaging wind gusts and microbursts 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has adjusted the severe storm risk in New England further north, and now puts all of Vermont in a zone with at least some risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening.

A warm front with the approaching storm that will cause the rough weather is moving further north than expected, and that is helping push the instability needed for the storms further north.

As earlier forecasts indicated, the greatest risk for severe storms is in southern Vermont.

However, that somewhat higher risk zone has been pushed north to a Middlebury to Bradford line.

South of this line, a few supercell thunderstorms could develop.  They might rotate, which raises the risk, albeit small, of a tornado or two.  Even if no tornadoes form, these scattered supercells, and also a subsequent likely line of storms could cause damaging wind gusts, microbursts and large hail.

A few computer models focus the most dangerous storms in Rutland and Windsor counties, but that certainly remains to be seen. Anyone in Vermont should pay attention to further forecasts and warnings.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

There's some real weather whiplash going on this week, as we've gone from snow last Friday and Saturday to a severe thunderstorm risk -  at least for some of us - today.

At least it's warmer, right?

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has that risk of severe storms today in a good chunk of the Northeast, especially in the southern two thirds of New York, much of Pennsylvania and New Jersey and much of southern and central New England, including the southern half of Vermont.

Any of these areas could get damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a spin up tornado. Of most concern is  a narrow area encompassing central New York, western Massachusetts, the two southernmost counties of Vermont and the southwestern corner of New Hampshire.

At least that's the way things were looking early this morning in advance of this thing.

A storm with a center that was pretty close to Detroit early this morning will move probably right across far northern Vermont and New Hampshire this afternoon and evening.

That will put especially areas from about Montpelier south into the warm, humid air ahead of the storm. Skies seem like the might partially clear for a time during the early and mid afternoon, perhaps from about Rutland and White River south.

Especially in those areas, some muggy, summerish air will come in ahead of the storm's approaching cold front.

Forecasters are expecting short lines or clusters of thunderstorms to form ahead of this cold front and move east through New York and into central and southern New England this afternoon and evening.

The main threat from today's storms will be strong, damaging straight line winds from some of these storms. Large, damaging hail is also possible, especially in the zone of most concern I mentioned.

It's even possible a few rotating supercell thunderstorms could sprout ahead of the cold front today.  That means there's a small, but certainly non-zero chance of a brief tornado or two in far southern Vermont, western Massachusetts, and especially in central New York and the Hudson Valley from Albany to just north of New York City.

Areas highlighted have a slight, but not zero chance of a brief
tornado or two today, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center

There's a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point within this particular zone of concern. So you see the threat isn't super high, but it's something to watch.

In any event, any strong to severe thunderstorm can be dangerous. Remember, straight line winds can be a destructive as tornadoes.

If you are in areas today and this evening that are under a threat for severe storms, have a weather radio handy, or some reliable source to receive severe weather warnings.

As we always advise, stay indoors and away from windows during a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning. In fact, in the unlikely but possible chance that you fall under a tornado warning, it would probably be best for you to hide in the basement until the danger has passed.

Up in northern Vermont, where I am, things will be calmer than points south. But in the north, there could be some briefly heavy rains in spots, and a few rumbles of thunder from some potential embedded non-severe thunderstorms.

I'm also sure as more data comes in this morning, forecasts for the severe weather risk will be adjusted. So whatever you see here this morning is not absolutely set in stone.

Things will clear out today to give us a pretty nice weekend.  It will be huge contrast to last weekend, when there was snow and strong, gusty cold winds.

Instead, this weekend will feature light winds, a fair amount of sun, though with some clouds, and seasonably mild temperatures.

The only drawback to this weekend's weather will be the lack of wind. Normally, that's fine, but with the warmer weather, black fly season is here with a vengeance, and they are really bad this year.  With no wind to blow them away from us, expect to get attacked visciously by these little buggers if you go outside Saturday and Sunday.

Chilly Spring Around Here Is A Global Exception

Most of the world, with the exception of much of Canada and half
the United States was warm in April. It will be regarded as the
second warmest April on record for the world as a whole. 

It was another frosty morning in Vermont, the last of a string of them.

The warming trend has arrived in the Green Mountain State. But of course, this being 2020, it turns out the warming might be tamped down a bit by a stalled area of low pressure along the East Coast next week.

We'll see about that, but at least it won't be cold anymore. No more frosts, no more snow

While we here in the Northeast shivered through large chunks of April and the first half of May, the rest of the world broiled.

Global numbers for April are in and it was more or less tied for the hottest April on record, at least on a global basis.

NOAA's Centers for Environmental Information place April, 2020 as the second hottest on record, just an itty bitty skosh cooler than the record holder, April, 2016. Other measurements call last month THE hottest. All measurements basically come up with the same numbers for the month.

Central and eastern Canada, and the northeastern third of the United States were practically the only cool spots in the world during April.

As Bob Henson in Weather Underground's Category 6 blog points out, there were areas of incredible heat this past April.

Kyrgyzstan, China and Mongolia all set all time records for April heat.  Unseasonable wildfires ripped through eastern Siberia. Cuba reported all time record high temperatures, not just for April, but for the entire year. Southern Florida wilted in June-like heat.

The global temperature trends make it all but certain this year will globally be one of the top five warmest on record.

By the way, there is no discernable impact on carbon dioxide in the atmosphere now that much of the world's economy is shut down by Covid-19.  We are still spewing enough carbon dioxide into the atmosphere to increase concentrations of this main greenhouse gas.  It's just that the rate at which it's increasing in the atmosphere has probably slowed, for now at least.

Discover Magazine notes that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, as measured on top of Hawaii's Mauna Loa reached an all time high of 416.82 parts per million in April, which exceeds the previous high in April, 2019.  For a variety of reasons, carbon dioxide concentrations in the air cycle yearly, with an annual peak in April.

The International Energy Agency expects global carbon dioxide emissions to decrease by 8 percent this year, not enough, really, to significantly alter the forward path of climate change. Scientists are conducting flights around major cities along the East Coast to further study how these Covid shutdowns are affecting carbon emissions.

One intriguing thing to watch: Particulate polllution has decreased with these Covid-19 economic shutdowns. These little particles block a little bit of sunshine from getting through which has had the effect of tempering climate change a bit.

Will this year be hotter globally because of reduced particulate pollution, with more sun getting through?   Scientists are interested in finding out more, that's for sure.

That Light At The End Of The Tunnel Is Warmth

Remarkably, the snow that fell Monday along Route 17 in Buels
Gore, Vermont did not melt Tuesday, despite strong May sun
It was that cold! This snow will certainly begin to melt today,
and really go on Thursday. 

Once again, in May, for the fifth day in a row, it snowed Tuesday in Vermont.

It didn't add up to much, and only a few places got it, but it DID snow again.  

I also find it remarkable that I could see snow on the ground all day pretty much to near the base of the Green Mountains, despite a fair amount of sunshine. Yesterday, was certainly another chilly day!

However, I'm happy to report that, except perhaps on the highest peaks, it won't snow again anywhere in Vermont until autumn.  

The long awaited warming trend will begin a bit today, then go full speed ahead Thursday.  The next few days starting tomorrow will really only be around normal for May, with highs mostly in the 60s and lows in the 40s, but it will still feel dreamy.

It's frosty and freezy this morning just about everywhere in Vermont, as forecast. We're still not out of the woods with those freezes and frosts. Tonight will be problematic in that regard. But we're almost there.

Today will certainly feel better than it has lately.  After the morning frost melts, temperatures will shoot up into the 50s.  That's still cool for mid-May, but plentiful sunshine and winds that will be somewhat lighter than they've been recently will make it feel warmer than it actually will be.

Those light winds and clear skies, along with very dry air, means that temperatures will plummet again tonight. A few areas will be a bit warmer than last night. A few others that had steady winds all night last night will actually be colder tomorrow morning.

But that will be it. Buh-bye, cold wave.  In Vermont's banana belts, like the Champlain Valley, it looks like tonight's risk of frost will be the last until autumn. In the Northeast Kingdom, it can frost any time of year, so I will make no such promises for that neck of the woods.

During this transition into a warmer weather pattern, we have a decent shot of some rainy spells, which is good news in northwestern Vermont in particular, which needs the rain.

There's a lot of uncertainty in the timing and strength of these showers, but they are likely, - or at least possible  - omorrow night, Friday, maybe Sunday, then Sunday night into Monday.

Chance are also increasing that a solid period of summer-like weather could hit starting the middle of next week. It's certainly possible that temperatures could reach the 80s by the end of next week.  If everything survived this morning's frost, and survives tonight, there's going to be a mad dash on trees to fully leaf out over the next week or two

INTERESTING TIDBITS

When weather patterns get interesting, that often spells trouble for us in Vermont.  This soon to be ending cold wave is one example.

Over the next several days, several interesting developments are likely to appear on the weather maps, but they will have zero, or next to zero influence on Vermont's weather.

The first interesting bit is occuring well off the Florida east coast.  An early season subtropical storm is likely to form north of the Bahamas over the next several days. Hurricane and tropical storm season starts June 1, but as has happened frequently in recent years, tropical systems have been forming before this arbitrary start to the season.

If this subtropical storm forms, they'll name it Arthur.

Wannabe Arthur won't hit the East Coast, but some signs indicate it will merge with a non-tropical storm well off the coast of New England and become a powerhouse.  That could bring an easterly fetch of chilly air to the New England coast, but that chilly air is unlikely to come as far inland as Vermont.

Worse, this pattern could bring some coastal flooding, rip currents and beach erosion to parts of the U.S East Coast.

Out in the middle of the country, after a quiet first part of May, severe weather and tornadoes seem destined to ramp up again. April was a particularly busy and deadly month for tornadoes, so the past couple of weeks has been a nice break in that department.

The threat of severe storms over the next several days doesn't appear as if it will be as intense as some of those April outbreaks, but it's still something to watch.

Finally, there's another oddly intense pool of cold air that will be building near Hudson Bay and the extreme northern tip of Quebec.  Like the last batch of frigid air, it will be rather strong for this time of year.

Very much unlike the last cold wave, there is zero chance it will come blasting down on us. Instead strong westerly winds aloft will keep that cold air a good 1,000 miles away from us, well off to our north.

But if you still haven't had enough of winter, head to Hudson Bay or the very northern tip of Quebec. Hmmm. I'm not seeing much of an exodus in that direction, am I?