Hanna, Now A Hurricane, Steals The Show. Also: Vermont Heat AGAIN!

Radar of Hurricane Hanna east of Corpus Christi, Texas this
morning. Powerful winds and storms now completelu
encircle Hanna's eye, which means further
strenthening is likely until the storm
makes landfall this afternoon. 

A few days ago, it looked like we would spend the rest of the week talking about a would-be hurricane named Gonzalo, while ignoring a nothingburger in the Gulf of Mexico.

As more proof that the tropics can be unpredictable, the "nothingburger" is now Hurricane Hanna, and it's about to strike southern Texas. And cause lots of problems.

Satellite views of Hanna overnight showed it organizing quite well, forming an eye with curved bands of intense thunderstorms surrounding that center.

The National Hurricane Center confirmed that as of around 7 a.m. this morning, top sustained winds in Hanna had reached 75 mph, enough to be the first Atlantic hurricane of the season.

It looks like Hanna will keep strengthening until it hits the southern Texas coast this afternoon.  The only thing keeping Hanna from become an even bigger monster is it doesn't have much time to get more powerful before it makes landfall.

However, powerful thunderstorms managed to completely surround the eye of Hanna as its central air pressure lowered. That's certainly a great recipe for further strengthening. Some observers  this morning were wondering if top winds could reach 90-100 mph.

Don't think for a minute so called "weaker" Category 1 hurricanes don't cause a lot of problems. This one will create a lot of difficulties, as most Cat 1's do.  It will cause wind damage. Even worse, storm surges of three to five feet above normal sea levels are expected around and south of Corpus Christi.  It's a low coast line, so that will cause lots of flooding.

Worse still, Hanna will dump between six and 12 inches of rain on far southern Texas, which will cause a lot of flash flooding.

There's more bad news with this:  A hurricane that is growing stronger as it nears the coast is especially bad because it catches people off-guard.  Some people in southern Texas might have been saying yesterday, "Oh, a tropical storm. I guess we won't have a beach day on Saturday."

Now, they have little time to get out of the way of wind, storm surgest and inland flooding.  I was, however, heartened to see news video of LOTS of cars driving away from the southern Texas coastline Friday evening.

Additionally, as we've all heard on the news, Texas is enduring a terrible spike in illnesses, deaths and hospitalizations due to the Covid-19 pandemic.  So on top of the extreme health crisis, southern Texas has to deal with a hurricane.

How do you socially distance in evacutation centers?  What if people are hurt or need to be rescued during Hurricane Hanna when medical and emergency teams are already stretched so thin?

They told us way back in the spring this would be a difficult hurricane season.  This is the opening salvo, and it's certainly not a good one.

Going back to the other tropical storm, Gonzalo, it's falling apart.  It will bring tropical storm conditions to some of the Windward Islands, and it's still expected to dissipate in the Caribbean Sea.  You never know what will happen to Gonzalo's remnants in a few days, so its currently disorganized mass of clouds could come back from the dead in a week or so.

VERMONT HEAT OVERPERFORMS AGAIN

Speaking of things that keep rising from the dead, another hot spell is coming to Vermont, especially Sunday and Monday.

There had been hope earlier in the week, that temperatures would stay pretty close to normal, continuing a trend that started Tuesday and continued through Friday. All four of those days were only slightly warmer than average, instead of torrid.

It's back to hot again for a few days. Today won't be too bad, because humidity levels are pretty comfortable. Still, afternoon highs will get into the 80s pretty much statewide.  The broader, wider valleys will probably get into the upper 80s

The humidity will increase by Sunday, along with the temperatures. Burlington could easily see its 16th 90 degree reading of the year tomorrow, and we might make it to #17 on Monday.

It doesn't look like there will be any cooling thunderstorms Sunday. However, on a very muggy Sunday night, and early Monday, some weather disturbances riding over the northern edge of the Northeast U.S. heat ridge could bring showers and thunderstorms to Vermont. If they happen, it's most likely north of Route 2.

Scattered hit and miss  showers and storms could punctuate the heat and humidity Monday.  A cold front slowly sagging south through northern New England will gradually bring relief to us later Tuesday and especially Wednesday, when temperatures will fall - and I use that term loosely - to readings that are similar to what we've had the past three or four days.

Will Vermont See A Rare 100 Degree Day Today?

Will it get to 100 degrees today in Burlington, Vermont?

As we said yesterday, today is going to be terribly hot across Vermont and surrounding areas.  Pretty much everybody will be in the 90s, and the whole state is under a heat advisory, except the extreme northeast corner of the state.

The speculation has started on this one: Will Burlington, Vermont reach a rare 100 degrees today?

It's only been 100 degrees in Burlington four times since they started keeping track of this stuff in the late 1800s.

Those times were:

100 degrees, July 3, 1911
101 degrees, August 11,1944
100 degrees June 19, 1995
100 degrees July 14, 1995.

Will today join this list?

The National Weather Service in South Burlington decided to pull the trigger and predict a high of 100 degrees today.  However, meteorologists at the NWS office note that some factors might prevent us from getting that hot.

It might "only" get to between 97 and 99 degrees.

Following are the factors that would encourage a reading of 100 degrees and factors that argue against it.

FOR 100 DEGREES

Computer forecast models that show a good layer of the atmosphere can support such temperatures down here near the ground.

Southwest winds that can compress the air coming down the slopes of the Adirondacks, thereby heating the air more than it would otherwise.

The air will mix well in the lower several thousand feet of the atmosphere. That would bring the humidity down a bit.  If the humidity is lower, then it can get hotter.

There should be a lot of sun this afternoon, which obviously encourages heating.

It's been dry.  Wet ground adds humidity to the air, and as noted, actual temperatures have a harder time reaching their maximum temperature with higher humidity.  All four cases in which it was 100 degrees in Burlington came during dry periods, like the one we're in.

AGAINST 100 DEGREES

Forecast models this morning indicate the airmass will be marginally cooler than forecasts issued yesterday, but by all means remain hot.

A dying mass of showers and thunderstorms in southern Quebec early this morning was keeping clouds across northern Vermont.   If clearing is delayed later this morning, it could prevent temperatures today from maxing out at their highest potential.

Will the southwest winds pick up just enough influence from Lake Champlain to cool things to just below 100 degrees?

It's also simply damn hard for temperatures to get to 100 degrees. Everything has to come together perfectly.  A few rogue fair weather cumulus clouds in the afternoon could easily kill chances of it getting to 100 degrees.

BEYOND TODAY

There are encouraging signs that it might stay as warm for the next week or so as initially thought.  There's going to be an ahhhhh factor here and there over the coming days.

Tonight will humid and stuffy as hell ahead of an oncoming cold front. To make sleeping more difficult, this cold front is likely to bring some scattered showers and storms overnight, especially north and west.

Storms ahead of this cold front will likely be severe this afternoon and evening across southern Ontario and western New York, but will weaken as they move into Vermont.

The actual cooler air lags well behind the cold front, so Monday will still be very warm and kind of humid, with temperatures in the 80s to possibly near 90.

Then we get into the better weather.  Dew points, a measure of how comfortably or uncomfortably humid it is out there, are expected to drop into the low 50s Tuesday.

That's the lowest they've been in weeks and definitely in the comfortable zone.

It'll probably turn vaguely humid midweek but nothing extraordinary.  The core of the nation's heat will be centered further west for awhile, temperatures will probably stay pretty close to normal for the next week or so after today's heat.

Storm Damage Widespread In Vermont; Now The Heat

Severe warned storm on approach to Sheldon, Vermont Wednesday.
The storm toppled trees and power lines in this and other
Vermont towns. 

We had the wildest storm outbreak of the season on Wednesday here in Vermont, with some welcome rains, but also some pretty substantial damage from severe weather.

Most of the damage involved trees and power lines, but siding was damaged on a house in Essex, there were reports of structural damage around Danby, and sidiing damaged by hail the size of ping pong balls in Fair Haven.

The pattern of damage in New England almost exactly matched the area that was under a severe thunderstorm warning.  The warning, and areas of damage were almost exclusively across Vermont, New Hampshire and western Maine.

In northern Vermont, the main swath of damage seemed to go on a long track starting in Alburgh and Swanton, continuing to through Sheldon an into eastern Franklin County around Bakersfield and Fairfield. It continued on through eastern Chittenden County,especailly around Essex, Jericho and Bolton, then into the Fayston/Moretown/Waitsfield area in central Vermont.

At least the storms brought some welcome rain.  I was on the edge of the damaging swath that went from Swanton through Sheldon and on into the Bakersfield area.  There was no wind damage on my St. Albans property, but my rain gauge collected a healthy 1.3 inches of rain in less than an hour. I noticed a fair amount of street flooding in downtown St. Albans.

CITIZEN SCIENTISTS HELP

Another view of the severe  thunderstorm in Sheldon, Vermont
on Wednesday 

By the way, the damage reports are a great example of how citizen scientists can help the National Weather Service improve forecasts.

Yesteday was a great example.  NWS meteorologist can't be all over the state, observing ongoing thunderstorms.  

They looked at radar trends with these storms, and issued severe thunderstorm warnings when radar images they were looking at indicated danger in these storms.

If you report damage from a storm to the National Weather Service, it helps verify their forecasts and  improves warnings.

For instance, if a bunch of damage reports come in from an area under a servere thunderstorm warning, that helps meteorologists understand there really is danger if they see similar radar trends in the future.

On the other hand, if a certain radar pattern seems to indicate dangerous storms, but that particular pattern never seems to yield real-life damage reports, then maybe that radar pattern doesn't really reflect threatenin weather.

There are a few general ground rules when reporting storms. First of all, do it only when it's safe. Don't go outside to measure the size of the downed tree if the wind is still blowing a million miles an hour and the hail falling is the size of canned hams, as David Letterman would put it.

When reporting the storm damage, be specific. To the best of your ability, tell the National Weather Service exactly what happened and where, and what time. If you have GPS coordinates great, report those, but most of us don't have that ability.

So report something like this:  "Large tree down on wires at 25 Main Street, Funkytown, Vermont, power is out. Occured at 4:15 p.m. ."  Sending along photos helps.  Don't bother reporting minor damage, like a three inch long dead twig coming off the old maple.

Definitely have a "just the facts ma'am" attitude when reporitng.  Don't complain that the power outage interrupted the season finale of "Real Housewives of Enosburg Falls"

It's probably wise not to telephone the National Weather Service office when they're busy issuing warnings -- too distracting. Call though, if it's an extreme issue, like a tornado touchdown happening in front of you.

I tend to tweet my reports to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. It's @NWSBurlington.   The more citizen reports of legitimate storm danage reported to the NWS the better.

Reporting on storms isn't limited to summer thunderstorms. Also report wind damage, snow, ice, flooding during any season.

ON TO THE FORECAST

As we have been advertising, it's going to be a really hot, oppressive couple of days. Yesterday's storms freshened the air last night, but that's over. Expect high humidity and temeratures in the low 90s both today and Friday.   Tonight will be stuffy for sure.

The weather people are still watching a disturbance that's now near the coast of North Carolina. There's a good chance it will turn into Tropical Storm or Subtropical Storm Fay.

Wannabe Fay will track northward just off the East Coast, but the devil is in the details.  We know it will affect southern and coastal New England, but that's about it.

It leads to what the National Weather Service in South Burlington calls a tricky weekend forecast for Vermont. Some computer models take Wannabe Fay just off the east coast of New England, or over Providence and Boston.

A few computer models take it inland in New Jersey, then up New York's Hudson River Valley and through Vermont. That path still seems rather unlikely, but would give us a good, benefitical soaking rain.

Remember, even if Wannabe Fay develops into a tropical storm, it won't be a powerhouse in terms of wind  Heavy rain is a threat, not wind.

Meanwhile, another weather disturbance will be approaching from the west. That will dance with either Wannabe Fay or the deep tropical moisture it brings north into New England.

How this plays out is anybody's guess, but at least it gives us a high chance of showers over the weekend.  We certainly could use more rain, even after yesterday's storms.  If the rain is locally torrential, though, there could be a couple spot instances of flash flooding.

Although clouds and showers will keep temperatures below 90 degrees over the weekend, the humidity will still be awful.  Remember, Wannabe Fay is bringing deep tropical air north into New England.

On top of that, once all the showers clear our early next week, we're still definitely at risk for another hot, dry spell late next week.

Enjoy Vermont's Last Nice Summer Day For Quite Awhile

Today is everything you want in Vermont summer day.

Any place depicted in orange is expected to have above
normal temperaturs at mid-month, according to this 8-14
day forecast. The darker the orange, the greater the chances
of warmer than normal temperatures. Only a tiny part of
the Pacific Northwest (in blue) will be coolish

There's plenty of sunshine.  It's going to be warm, with most of us getting to 80 degrees or a little above.  It won't be humid.

It's hot enough for a day at the beach and comfortable enough for a hike in the Green Mountains. You won't get rained on. Apply some sun screen and maybe some bug spray and away you go.

This will be your last chance to enjoy the Vermont outdoors for awhile.  We have another long period of hot, humid, oppressive weather that will last right into the weekend at least.

I know that a few of you like hot, humid weather, so sorry for insulting you by complaining about it.  But most of us, frankly, are not enthused about this.

It'll start tomorrow. Last night was a refreshing night for sleeping, and tonight won't be bad either.  The humidity blasts in tomorrow, and by late afternoon you'll feel it.

That warm front bringing us this nasty spell could cause a few scattered showers and tbunderstorms, but most of us won't get wet.  Another little disturbance could trigger some showers and storms here and there on Wednesday, but, again, not all of us will get wet.

The partial cloudiness will keep daytime temperatures "cooler" Tuesday and Wednesday with highs "only" in the mid and upper 80s most places around here.

The heat seems, at least at this point, as if it will peak Thursday and Friday with higha in aome of the valleys reaching the mid-90s. Ugh!  The humidity will be higher than during that big heat wave we had in late June, so it will feel even worse than it did back a couple weeks ago.

Overnight lows will stay in the 70s in many areas, so getting a good night's sleep will be difficult without air conditioning.

There are signs that it could turn a little wetter again by next weekend.  That would drop temperatures a little bit, but the humidity would stay awful.  At least we'll have a shot of getting some badly needed rain five or six days from now.  Of course, the way this summer is going, the prospects of rain next weekend could evaporate before we get there.

The epicenter of the heat will shift gradually from the Northeast and Great Lakes to areas of the Plains and Midwest as the week goes on. That will continue for the following week as well.

Long range forecasts are tricky, as I always point out.  As it stands now, though, a torrid, dangerous heat wave will settle into the central United States.  We in Vermont will likely be out of the main heat zone by about a week from now. However, temperatures will remain warmer than averaage, with very likely some genuinely hot days thrown in.

It's too dry here, but at least the repositioning of the heat toward the west will slightly increase rain chances here in the Northeast starting next weekend, as noted.

This is very bad news for the middle and western parts of the nation, however, Much of the Rockies and Plains are in an increasingly bad drought.  The heat dome that will set up over the Plains will shut off pretty much all precipitation chances out there.

Plus the intense, sunny heat will make the drought intensify much faster.  Wildfires in the Rockies and elsewhere will intensify, too.

The super hot weather will also drive people indoors into air conditioned spaces.  Research into the coronavirus pandemic suggests that air conditioned air, if there's inadequate outside air intake, can make the spread of the virus worse in offices, factories, apartment buildings, restaurants and such.

This summer's weather pattern is consistent with what climate experts have been watching.  Heat waves and hot spells in general across most of the globe have been getting longer and more intense. 

As an aside, I was talking with my mother, age 91, and a lifelong Vermonter.  She said she doesn't remember such consistent and long and frequent hot spells when she was younger. Sure, there were heat waves, but they didn't practically last all summer.

That's an anecdotal story, of course, but telling.

During the upcoming week, try to get into cool places as much as possible. Don't overexert yourself, even if you are healthy.  Drink plenty of liquids and check in frequently with elderly relatives and freinds, because they are especially prone to illness and death during heat waves.

That's especially true with the hot spell coming in over the next few days, because the expected muggy nights won't give ua a reprieve from the effects of the heat.

What? No Vermont Desert Heat? Whatever Will We Do?

A brief but beautiful downpour out on my deck in St. Albans,
Vermont early this morning signals the end of that awful heat wave

Tuesday pretty much capped the longest and probably most intense June heat wave on record in Vermont's Champlain Valley.

The temperature reached 96 degrees in Burlington Tuesday for the second day in a row. That was enough to break the record high for the date of 93, last set in 1975.

To sum up the records set in this heat wave:

1. Longest June heat wave on record (six days of 90+).
2. Tie for second longest heat wave on record.
3. Now part of a four way tie for the most consective days of at least 94 degrees (four of them).
4. A tie with 1949 for the most days of 90 degree weather in June (seven of 'em).

Mercifully, the chances of another 90 degree day this month seem low, but not zero.  The next few days are going to be better than the last few, that's for sure.

A little bit of needed rain came with the arrival of somewhat cooler air this morning. Burlington had 0.21 inches of rain in just an hour dear;y today.  That's really not much, but still makes this the "wettest" day in a very parched June, 2020.

We're now suddenly in a somewhat cooler weather pattern, though temperatures should stay near or even a wee bit warmer than normal over the next several days.

That means highs mostly in the 75 to 85 degree range through early next week.  Some nights will drop into the 50s, giving us some decent sleeping weather for a change.

There's even hope that a storm system could give us a fairly decent shot of rain Saturday. That's not guaranteed yet, but it's reason for a little hope, anyway.

Of course, depending on how that Saturday system behaves and where it tracks, it also gives us a chance of severe storms. That prospect is even more uncertain than the chances of weekend rain, but it's something to watch.

Beyond early next week, the weather becomes really uncertain.  It'll be a weird weather pattern, with early indication of another cut off low setting up near the Northeast, and a heat ridge to our northwest in Canada.

What that means for us: God only knows at this point.

June Vermont Heat Busting All Kinds Of Records. Finally A Little Rain?

So close and yet so far. A thunderstorm juuusst missed my
parched gardens in St. Albans, Vermont last evening, leaving
me literally in the dust. Photo taken while I was watering
said garden as I watched the storm depart toward the east. 

The heat goes on in Vermont, at least for one more day today as records fall due to the persistent heat wave.

The temperature reached 96 degrees in Burlington Monday, exceeding the old record of 92 set in 1921.  It was the fifth consecutive day of 90+ heat, making it the longest such stretch on record for the month of June.

That record just got extended.

It was 90 degrees at noon in Burlington. That's six days in a row at 90 or above. That ties the record for the second longest heat wave on record in Burlington.

Today's 90 also means we tie with 1949 the record for the most 90 degree days in the month of June - which is seven.

Today's record high in Burlington is 93 degrees. We have a good shot of reaching that, too.  If it gets to 94 degrees today, we will be in a four way tie for the most consecutive days of 94 degree weather in Burlington, says WPTZ-TV meteorologist Ben Frechette.  That would be four consecutive days of such weather.

Atop Mount Mansfield, the high temperature yesterday was 83 degrees, shattering the old record of 75 degrees set in 1998.

A remarkable record has been set on Lake Champlain. The water temperature, as measured roughly seven feet below the surface was 79 degrees this morning, which is the hottest the lake water has been since they started keeping track in 1972.

Lake Champlain water temperature, by the way, usually peaks in August.

I'm theorizing a unique set of circumstances created this hot Lake Champlain water.  It's been dry, so cool river water has not been flowing in. More importantly, mainly clear skies have been sitting over the lake for days on end right around the Summer Solstice, which offers plenty of time for the sun to heat the water.

A record long heat wave striking right at Summer Solstice also helped. Probably an even more important factor is winds have been light winds for several days now. Strongest wind gusts over the past week have been under 20 mph, except in highly local areas that were near isolated thunderstorms

With a little more wind, clouds and somewhat cooler temperatures on the way, Lake Champlain water temperatures will fall somewhat, but stay unseasonably warm, is my guess.

Some relief is finally on the way, believe it or not, but it won't necessarily get chilly by any means.

As of late morning today, billowing thunderheads are already forming in the mountains.  Unlike yesterday, these nascent storms are actually moving, so the percentage of us who will get some rain today will be a wee bit higher today than in the past few.  Most of us will still miss out, I think.

Which is too bad. We really, really need the rain. Burlington, for instance, has just had a paltry 0.37 inches of rain this month.  They should have accumulated about 2.7 inches during June so far had this month been anywhere near normal.

It was frustrating yesterday here in St. Albans, when a thunderstorm formed near Plattsburgh, dumping a wondrous 1.3 inches of rain on that city.  The storm began to move slowly northeastward, right toward me.

But the storm collapsed on the way over, and all I got was a trace of rain and an outflow boundary that brought a brief, cool gust of wind of about 25 mph.

That outflow boundary created a new storm just to my east, which created a nice downpour there. That new storm headed east, away from St. Albans. For me, I was left in the dust, literally.

Although some of us have gotten some welcome rain in isolated storms - I see you @VermonsterWx - most of us have missed out just like me.

At least there's now hope of getting a little rain. If you avoid a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening, that welcome cold front will probably bring some more widespread showers and rumbles of thunder later tonight and Wednesday.

The timing of the front means there won't be a lot of rain, except for a handful of places that get bullseyed by a thunderstorm. But even a little will help. Generally we can expect a half inch of rain or less with this, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

We have a second chance of some watering this weekend. A warm front and little storm system has the potential to dump some decent rains on us Saturday. Don't hold your breath on this one, though. Currently, it's a big maybe.

Temperatures will fall to near normal for a few days, starting Wednesday afternoon and going into the weekend. (Highs in the 75-82 degree range).

I do see some worrying signs that it could turn hot again as June closes and July begins. That's also a big maybe.  It might well be not nearly as bad as the heat wave we just went through.  But judging by the weirdness of this weather year, you never know.

Caribbean Dust, And New England The New Miami-Dade

Same two views on the island of St Barthelemy, before
the dust, top, and during the current outbreak of
Sarahan dust.  Photos by Mirco Ferro, via Twitter

We've got a this n' that post for you today, as the weather always fascinates.  Or at least gets weird pretty often.

So let's get started

SAHARA DUST

Time to head to a nice Caribbean island to enjoy the dust storms.

Wait, what?

I'm exaggerating when I'm calling the current weather in the tropical Atlantic a dust storm, but it is pretty damn dusty down there.

A huge plume of dust from the Sahara Desert in Africa has blown westward and is crossing the Atlantic Ocean.

Visibility on some islands was down to three miles or so, a sharp contrast to the deep blue skies and long views that residents and vacationers are accustomed to.

The dust will reach the U.S. Gulf Coast this week, causing hazy skies, beautiful sunrises and sunsets and maybe suppressing thunderstorms.

This cloud of dust from the Sahara desert actually isn't all that weird. These plumes of dust cross the Atlantic frequently from late spring to early fall.  This episode is just more intense than usual. Some observers are saying this plume is the thickest in five decades.

In one important respect, the dust clouds are a good thing, even if it does reduce visibility and hurt people with pre-existing respiratory problems.

The dust clouds suppress the thunderstorms needed to give birth to tropical storms and hurricanes. Such dangerous storms are much less likely when there is a plume of Sahara dust over the Atlantic.

It's early in the hurricane season now, so there probably wouldn't have been any tropical storms anyway this week, but if more dust clouds form and move out over the Atlantic, there's a chance it could reduce what is expected to be a busy hurricane season.

Don't count on that, though. Just because there's a big cloud of dust now doesn't mean it will keep happening with the same intensity all summer. and fall.  This just happens to be a random big outburst.

FLORIDA MOVES NORTH

Tropical style thunderstorm erupting Satiurday in Florida  oops
I mean Vermont. Things are a bit topsy turvy

The weather in New England has consistently been just like what you'd expect in Florida during the summer the past few days.

Heat waves hit New England almost every summer, of course. But this one has taken on the characteristics of a Florida summer.

In the Deep South, there are typically few major weather systems coming through in the summer. Cold fronts from Canada don't make it that far south, and no big storm systems come across the country to stir up the weather.  

Which means local conditions rule the roost when it comes to the weather.

In Florida's hot, humid weather sea breezes push inland, and form little weather fronts separating the marine air from the hotter conditions over land. These little weather fronts create just enough lift for daily thunderstorms in Florida during the summer.

Meanwhile, local updrafts  create more thunderstorms over interiror Florida.

Up here in New England, we're usually far enough north so that the usual roughly west to east flow of weather systems continues.  A cold front will come through with a burst of thunderstorms, followed by coolish, dry sunny weather, then a bout of hot, humid conditions, followed by another cold front, rinse and repeat.

You know the drill.

The past several days, and today, are featuring a pattern much more like Florida. There's no weather systems moving through, just a dome of hot, humid air over New England and southeastern Canada.

Which means New England is temporarily the new Miami-Dade. One of those sea breeze fronts created scattered thunderstorms a little inland from the coast in Massachusetts yesterday.

Meanwhile, local updrafts continued the daily rounds of scattered storms in interior New England. Unlike Florida, we have mountains, which are more than enough to create the initial updrafts to create those slow moving thundersetorms. They pop up, dump a big downpour on a small area, then dissipate. Then a few more form and do the same thing until the sun sets.

We'll finally revert back to typical northern weather patterns starting Tuesday.  The west to east flow of systems will resume.  A couple weak cold fronts will come through, creating a better chance of showers and storms later Tuesday and Wednesday.

The heat will then diminish, at least for awhile, starting at the end of the week.

Speaking of heat, Burlington has a shot of tying the record for the most 90 degree days in the month of June. The record is seven, set in 1949.

We've had five such days this June, and we are on track to tie the 1949 record. High temperatures in Burlington are expected to reach 90 degrees today and tomorrow.

You Think It's Hot Here? Go North To Maine/Canada For Real Heat

The more north you go, the hotter it gets. Forecast highs for
today. Northern Maine is expected to be in the mid-90s,
but it'll only be 80 degrees or so once you get
down to New Jersey. 

As expected, it was quite a hot day in Vermont Thursday. Burlington made it up to 92 degrees.  That was already the fourth day this year that made it to 90 degrees or better.

Normally, the Queen City has just five or six 90 degree days each summer, and most of those days come in July or August.

So we're ahead of the game. Especially since there's at least a chance today, tomorrow, or Sunday could also reach 90 degrees.  The humidity is also going to increase.

However, we're just on the edge of an intense heat wave that's hitting northern Maine, southern Quebec and New Brunswick with some mind-blowing temperatures.

To begin with, the temperature maps are inverted. It's hotter the further north you go on the East Coast. The hottest place anywhere in the United States yesterday east of the Mississippi River was the northern tip of Maine.

Caribou got up to 95 degrees, a record for the date.  Meanwhile, places like Atlanta, Georgia are still waiting for their first 90 degree day.

Some of the temperatures up in southeastern Canada were off the charts. At Sept Iles, way north along the north shore of the mouth of the St. Lawrence River, they experienced their all-time hottest temperature on record at 98 degrees.

Even further north, about 310 miles north of Montreal, Chibougamau, Quebec reached 91.5 degrees.

Jackson the weather dog sits in cool grass in the shade while
taking observations of 90-degree heat in St. Albans,
Vermont Thursday afternoon. 

In New Brunswick, Bathurst reached 99 degrees on Thursday.

The heat will continue in full force across southeastern Canada and northern Maine today. Heat warnings are up for much of Quebec, including metrol Montreal.  Caribou could have a high temperature of 97 degrees today, which would be the hottest reading there since at least 1939, when official records began.

Here in Vermont, it will be hot and humid through the weekend, but perhaps not as bad as points north. Most of the Green Mountain State can expect dailly hghs mostly between 85 and 90 degrees, probably through Tuesday.

There might be isolated thunderstorms, especially in the mountains, today through the weekend. Most of us will stay dry, though.  So drought or drought like conditions will likely keep building.

Hot Arctic, Bad Hurricanes, Carbon And Coronavirus: All Bad Climate Change News

A few reports, studies and breaking news this week have all been bad news in the climate change department. Let's get into them:   

Recent temperature depiction of the Arctic.  The more orange, the
further temperatures are above normal.  Notice Siberia and the
area around the North Pole have the deepest orange.

ARCTIC HEAT

The (sort of) breaking news is a weird Arctic heat wave that has spread from Siberia and is reaching the North Pole and parts of Greenland. 

As noted in Gizmodo, temperatures at the North Pole will probably get a bit above freezing in the next few days.  For most of us, temperatures in the low to mid 30s most certainly does not constitute a heat wave. 

But such temperatures are odd for the North Pole, especially this early in the season.  Plus, it gets the Arctic off to an early start to the melt season. 

Same is true in Greenland.  The warmth has gotten the melt season going two weeks earlier than normal.  True, not a huge amount of ice has melted in this heat wave, compared to some mid-summer epic melts in recent years, especially last summer, which saw record melts in Greenland. 

As Gizmodo points out, though, this year's early melt exposes older dirtier snow sooner in the year than nornal. This old snow and ice can then absorb more warm sunshine during the rest of the summer than newer, whiter, fresher snow and ice would. This would bring up the risk of major melt events later in the summer. 

We should care more about Greenland's melt than Arctic Ocean melt.  If ice floating on the sea melts, it won't raise global sea levels. But ice melting off the above sea level glaciers in Greeland flow into oceans, raising their levels globally. 

Meanwhile, Siberia is once again on fire after its warmest winter and spring on record. Fires have already crept north of the Arctic Circle. Gizmodo reports there are even some "zombie fires" which smoldered in buried peat all winter and then sparked back up again amid the current record warmth in high latitude Siberia.  

TURBOCHARGED HURRICANES

Climate change appears to be making hurricanes and typhoons and such more intense, according to new research from NOAA and the University of Wisconsin-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. 

As The Weather Channel reports:

"The researchers discovered that the probability of a tropical cycle having Category 3 or higher wind speeds (at least 111 mph) increased by aboug 15 percent between the first and last halves of the analyzed satellite data. This corresponds to about an 8 percent increase per decade over the period of the study. The proportion of all tropical cyclones exceeding major hurricane intensity showed a similar increase of about 6 percent per decade."

The largest increase in bad hurricanes was in the Atlantic Ocean, but other influences might have helped increase the odds of such storms, too. 

CARBON/CORONAVIRUS

Daily global emissions of carbon dioxide fell by 17 percent from the same period in 2018 as nations locked down their economies to battle the coronavirus pandemic. Most of that decrease was due to less travel and less industrial output. 

I suppose that's good news for people who are not fans of climate change, but obviously we would have all been better off without the pandemic.

Also, this cut in carbon emissions won't really dent the pace of climate change. Economies are already opening back up, and emissions will rise correspondingly.  Even a sustained 17 percent reduction in carbon emissions lasting years wouldn't really solve the problem. 

Said Richard Betts, head of Climate Impacts Research at the Met Office Hadley Centre in England said, "It's like we're filling a bath and have turned down the tap slightly, but not turned it off - the water is still rising, just not as fast. To stop the bath overflowing, we need to turn the tap off."

So yes, the world is rightly consumed with battling the pandemic, but we still need to deal pretty intensely with climate change at the same time. 

September Weather: Vermont A Normal Island In A Really Abnormal U.S. Month

Still no frost at my St. Albans, Vermont house yet.
so I've still got some flowers as October begins
even though the leaves are changing and falling. 

September was a month of extremes across the United States, with winter weather in the northern Rockies, massive flooding in the middle of the nation and unprecedented late summer and early autumn heat in the South and Southeast.

Meanwhile, here in Vermont, we enjoyed a most pleasant weather for the most part, weather that was pretty much spot on normal for September.

The Green Mountain State spent September in the sweet spot.  Close enough to the heat dome in the South to keep the heaviest rain storms at bay, but far enough away to get some coolish, dry air from southern Canada.

We were too far east to get caught up in those midwestern storms, and way too far away for us to get any kind of weather that would remind you of winter.

Subjectively, this was easily one of my favorite Septembers in my 57 years living in Vermont. Rainfall was certainly adequate, but between those showers, we had a large number of days with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures. It ws just pleasant.

For stats, Burlington came in with a mean September temperature of 62.0, which was 1.5 degrees above normal. Rainfall was nearly spot on perfect, with 3.71 inches for the month, just 0.07 inches wetter than normal. A rounding error, basically.

There wasn't even that big a range in temperature during Burlington's September. The hottest day reached 83 degrees, the coolest morning was just 40 degrees.

Elsewhere in Vermont, September temperatures were at or just a smidge below normal. The Northeast Kingdom was a bit on the cool side. Like in Burlington,  precipitation was close to normal.

Temperatures in southern Vermont were also quite close to normal, but it was on the dry side down there. For instance, Springfield had only 1.27 inches of rain during the month, which was about 2.5 inches below normal.

As mentioned, other parts of the nation were wild. I'll cherry pick some spots as examples.

Dallas, Texas endured a September that averaged out at 85.5 degrees, or 7.5 degrees hotter than normal. Only one day in September there failed to reach 90 degrees.

Memphis, Tennessee had its hottest September on record, as did Evansville, Indiana, where temperatures reached 80 degrees each day of the month for the first time records started being kept there in 1897.

Atlanta, Georgia was just about nine degrees hotter than normal. The average high temperature in Macon, Georgia in September was 96.4 degrees. During the final week of the month, each day in Macon reached at least 97 degrees, with three of those breaking 100 degrees. Only 0.03 inches of rain fell there. They should have had more than 3.5 inches.

All the rain was instead in the middle of the nation. Peoria, Illinois, for instance had more than 7.5 inches of rain last month.

Actually, places like Montana didn't have all that cold a September until the final days of the month, with that record snowfall of up to four feet. This morning, the temperature was a wintry 5 degrees in Cut Bank, Montana.

The opening few days of October will bring more of the same. Record heat will continue in the South and East for the first few days of the month. All-time record October highs are expected today and tomorrow in some places.

Flood watches are up once again in a band stretching from New Mexico to Michigan.

And here in Vermont, there will be some weather action, but nothing too extreme. The oddest thing would be the chance of a few late season thunderstorms today. A few might even bring gusty winds and heavy downpours.

It'll be a little on the warm side today, and a little on the cool side tomorrow and on through the weekend. There will definitely be showers around on several of these days, but again, nothing scary.

Once we get into the cool season, weather tends to get more variable, so anytbing could happen durin the rest of October. But will Vermont remain in the relatively calm weather sweet spot? Only time will tell.

"Flash Drought" Hitting Southeastern United States

The U.S Drought Monitor map from a week ago. Yellow indicates
abnormally dry, shades of orange are drought. Notice how
much more orange there is, especially in the Southeast,
in this week's map, below.

We've all heard of flash floods, when a torrential downpour turns quiet water into raging torrents pretty much instantaneously. That's why we call them flash floods. Duh! They hit in a flash.

There's actually such a thing a flash drought, too, believe it or not. Droughts usually develop over months or even years as persistent below normal rainfall dries out the ground, rivers and aquafers.

Under the right conditions, a strong weather pattern can create a drought in just a few weeks. That's what's now happening over the southeastern United States, as the Weather Channel reports. 

We've talked about that persistent heat ridge that has been stuck over the Southeast for over a month now. That has created the perfect conditions for a flash drought.

Of course, high pressure prevents rain from falling. The sinking air in a high pressure system tamps down clouds, so you don't get billowing clouds that can produce rain.

This weather pattern has also brought at least three weeks of record high temperatures, too. In general, the higher the temperature, the faster things dry out. Such is the case in the Southeast, where daytime temperatures have been consistently in the 90s or even 100s.

A great example of the weather that brought on this flash drought is Macon, Georgia.  They reached 102 yesterday, the hottest for so late in the season. It was the third day this month where it got to 100 degrees. Only one day so far this September has failed to reach 90 degrees in Macon.  Even worse, Macon has only received 0.02 inches of rain so far this month. They should have gotten a good three inches during that time period.

Much more orange this week as drought rapidly intensifies
and expands in the southeastern United States.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows how fast this is developing. A week ago, 15 percent of Alabama was experiencing drought. This week, its more like 34 percent.

In Georgia, it's even worse. A week ago, about a quarter of that state was in drought. The U.S. Drought Monitor says this week, almost three quarters of Georgia is experiencing drought. That's an incredibly fast change for a building drought.

The flash drought also extends well into Texas, except in areas around Houston that drowned in flooding from Tropical Storm Imelda earlier this month.

The flash drought sneaks in to a lesser extent into New England, including here in Vermont.  There are currently no official drought regions in Vermont, but 72 percent of the Green Mountain State is regarded as abnormally dry by the U.S. Drought Monitor. That's up from 46 percent last week.

Vermont is on the northern edge of that heat ridge causing the baking dryness down south. Northern Vermont has been blessed by a series of weather fronts that have dumped some decent, but not overwhelming rains.  The southern half to two thirds of Vermont has lately largely missed out on these showers, hence the increasing dryness.

The weather outlook in the Southeast isn't very good. They will endure a few more days of record heat, along with a continued lack of rain through the weekend.

Extended forecasts into first ten days of October indicate continued warm, dry conditions in the Southeast. Up here in New England, it looks like it will turn chillier and wetter (mountain snows?) during early October.

Update: Europe Heat Indeed Shattered Records

People trying to keep cool in Europe this week. Photo by Nicolas
Economou/NurPhoto/Getty Images

As expected, more all-time heat records were set in western Europe Thursday as the second unprecedented heat wave of the summer grilled the region.

Paris soared to incredible 108 degrees, beating the old record of 104 degrees to be the hottest temperature anyone has seen there. Breaking an all-time record is one thing. Breaking it by four degrees is just incredible. 

Records in Paris go back to 1658, so it's not like they just started keeping track of temperatures in Paris and missed something a few years back. The heat really was just out of this world.

Germany on Thursday had that nation's hottest temperature on record, when it got to 106.7 degrees in the town of Lingen. That breaks a national record that was established just 24 hours earlier.

In the Netherlands, the temperature reached 104 .7 degrees, also breaking the national record set a day earlier. Before that, the Netherlands hottest temperature on record of 101.5 degrees  had stood for 75 years.

As has been the case with many other recent extremes, a lot of experts say the hands of climate chang were all over this heat wave.

Says Reuters:

"Peter Inness, senior research fellow at the University of Reading (Great Britain) said: 'The fact that so many recent years have had very high summer temperatures both globally and across Europe is very much in line with what we expect from man-made global warming."

Climate change might be influencing these kinds of hot spells in two ways. The baseline temperature is just warmer than it was decades ago, which means the chances have increased for record breaking spikes in temperature.

Additionally, it's possible climate change is messing with the jet stream, making blocked, stalled and much wavier patterns, like the one that caused the Europe heat wave this week, to become more common.

Of course, these blocky patterns create areas of cool weather, too, where the jet stream dips. It's just that most of the time, the cool waves aren't as chilly as they used to be.

The pattern that caused the western Europe heat wave is creating a pretty sizeable area of chilly weather in parts of Russia and surrounding areas. There might be a few record lows there, but it won't match the extraordinary departures from normal in western Europe.

Similarly, as noted yesterday, a surge of dry air into the southern United States created some record low temperatures. Austin, Texas, dropped to 58 degrees, the first time on record there that a July temperature sank below 60 degrees. But, by afternoon, it was 90 degrees in Austin, which is only a few degrees below normal.

As the heat dome works its way north through places like Norway and finally the Arctic, it could also re-jigger the jet stream over our neck of the woods to give Vermont relatively cool weather during much of the first half of August.

It won't be extremely cold, and there's no guarantee that it will actually be refreshingly cool, but there is a decent chance that could happen. Stay tuned......

Europe Heat Sets All-Time Records Again, Plus More Bad Climate News

Forecast map of the departure from normal in Europe for expected
high temperatures today. Areas that are whitish will be about
30 degrees hotter than normal, which is uncharted territory
for these regions. 

The second super intense heat wave of the summer is now underway in western Europe, and like in the June heat wave, all-time record hot temperature records are falling.

This isn't your grandfather's heat wave. This one is much worse.

Germany broke its national all-time record high Wednesday when one town reached 105 degrees. Belgium had its hottest day on record with a reading of 103.8 degrees. The Netherlands also broke its all time record, reaching 102.7 degrees.

The city of Bordeaux, France, reached its all time record high of 106.1 degrees.

Incredibly, these new records are in danger of falling today as the heat wave, if anything might grow more intense. And expand. Paris, France, might break its all-time heat record. So might the United Kingdom.

Already this summer, 25 percent of France's weather stations have reported all time record high temperatures, according to the Category 6 blog. Forty-four of Germany's 490 stations have also done so, and that will surely increase today.

Most European homes don't have air conditioning, so this is a dangerous situation. Governments have learned from other, recent deadly heat waves and have set up cooling centers, air conditioned places and other options for vulnerable people to go.

By Saturday, cooler air will undercut the heat ridge and push it north into Scandanavia. That would probably make all time record highs fall up there, too.  It's possible the heat dome will extend as far as the North Pole, which isn't exactly great news for the already scant Arctic sea ice pack.

There's other types of climate related trouble and news, too:

ARCTIC FIRES

The center of this heat wave will move to Scandanavia and parts of the
Arctic this weekend, which is bad news for the ice up there. 

Extensive probably unprecedented wildfires burning in Alaska, northern Canada and Siberia and cloaking the Arctic in smoke, Forbes reports. Wildfires in such northern areas are bad to begin with, but these could contribute a bit toward making climate change worse.'

Especially in areas were peat is on fire, the blazes are belching carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which adds to the surplus that's causing climate change in the first place.

Soot particles from the fire are landing on Arctic ice. Bright white ice reflects sunlight, but darker material draws the sun's warmth in. The soot would therefore make the ice melt faster in the summer than it otherwise would.

ICELAND GLACIER DEATH

An Icelandic glacier dubbed OK is officially dead, the apparent victim of climate change. Summers in Iceland have gotten hotter in recent years and decades. That means the island's 400 or so glaciers are in retreat.

OK is the first of Iceland glaciers to be declared dead but it won't be the least. A glacier "dies" when it becomes so thin that it can't move on its own because it doesn't have enough weight.

According to Slate, the OK glacier probably died several years ago, and there's likely a few other glaciers in Iceland that have also died.

PAST CLIMATE CHANGE SMALLER

People who say climate change doesn't exist point to other climate shifts that happened before we started pushing all that CO2 into the atmosphere. They point to the Roman Warm Period between the years 0 and 300 AD, the Dark Ages cold period around the year 500 AD, the Little Ice Age in the 1300s through 1700s and the Medieval Warm Period around the year 1000 as examples.

According to Science News, these past climate events were regional, covering only sections of the Earth. That's unlike the current global warming, says Science. They report that 98 percent of the Earth is warmer now that it has been at any time in the previous 2,000 years.

This new study appears in the journal Nature.  The scientists conducting this study came to their conclusion by using proxies for temperatures from tree rings, glacier ice cores, lake and ocean sediments, cave deposits and historical documents.

Extremes: Cape Cod Tornado, Southern Chill, Europe, California Heat

Tornado damage in Yarmouth, Massachusetts Tuesday.
Photo by Steve Heaslip/Cape Cod Times

It almost seems like the only place on Planet Earth not experiencing extreme weather this week is right here in Vermont.

Temperatures are pretty close to normal, and no big storms are in the offing that I can see. Elsewhere, it's wild.  

That's all due to a jet stream in the Northern Hemisphere that's weird for July. It's what we call amplified, meaning northward bulges and southward plunges ain the jet stream are more pronounced than they normally are this time of year.

Which means we get extremes in weather. Some examples:

CAPE COD TORNADO

A rare tornado struck Cape Cod Tuesday as a supercell thunderstorm rampaged through. Again, that dip. A relatively sharp dip in the jet stream to the west of New England was one of many ingredients to cause this.

It looks like it was a high end EF-1 tornado, with winds estimated at 110 mph. I'm not sure, but I think the last tornado before this on Cape Cod was in 1977, so it's pretty rare.

The tornado and supercell had something called a tornado debris signature on radar, meaning radar was detecting debris blown aloft by the tornado. That enabled meteorologists to confirm the tornado via radar.

Strong rotation in the storm was detected off of Block Island, Rhode Island, well before it reached Cape Cod. That enabled the National Weather Service to issue timely warnings.  Supercells usually have strong straight line winds, too, and this one was no exception. Winds in some places were clocked as high as 90 mph.

The roof of an inn was blown off in the tornado and there was massive tree damage. Dramatic videos of the tornado and supercell are at the bottom of this post.

SOUTHERN CHILL

July is normally a time of relentless heat and humidity across the South. But that dip in the jet stream to the west of New England I told you about is bring oddly low humidity to places south of the Mason-Dixon line.

When the air is relatively dry, nighttime temperatures usually get cooler than when the air is really humid. This rare burst of dry southern air is bringing some record low temperatures, which I'm sure nobody in the South is complaining about.

Cities in Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma and elsewhere reported record lows this morning. Houston, Texas might get three consecutive mornings with lows in the 60s, which to us Vermonters doesn't seem chilly, but is frigid for a Houston July. They haven't had three consecutive 60s in July for at least 25 years.

EUROPE HEAT

Western Europe is in the throes of the second record breaking heat wave of the summer.

The worst of it in many areas is expected to peak Thursday, when the United Kingdom could break its all-time record high of 101 degrees. Paris, France, which endured some of the strongest effects of the June heat wave, when it set its all time national high temperature record, might do it again.

Paris is in line to break its all-time record high temperature as readings could get to 105 or 106 degrees there.

Record heat and the risk of wildfires exists not only in France but in Spain and Portugal.  Record heat looks like it will also extend northward through Scandanavia.

Meanwhile, there's a dip in the jet stream to the east of these countries, so it will be unusually cool in parts of Russia and surrounding regions.

Still, the magnitude of the heat is greater than the extent of the cold, another possible sign of climate change.

CALIFORNIA HEAT

The west coast of the United States is heating up, too. Cities like Bakersfield, Modesto and Fresno could challenge all time heat records, with readings possibly exceeding 115 degrees in some areas.

Back to the Cape Cod tornado with videos:

Here's the roof of the motel blowing off in the tornadic winds:



A view out a window of the intense winds in or near the tornado:



Notice the wind change directions in this time lapse out of Dennis Port, Massachusetts.  I'm guessing this was in the outer circulation of the tornado, and I think it was in the background in this video. Hard to tell, since there was so much rain:



Finally, a very nice analysis of what meteorologists were seeing on radar, from television station WCVB:

Heat Gone For Now; Soaker To South, Too Dry To North

If you water enough, flowers thrive in this hot July. Photo taken
Sunday near the front door of my St. Albans, Vermont house.

That cold front, or pair of cold fronts came through Vermont on schedule Sunday and I'm sure you can feel the improvement out there.

Enjoy it, because this fresh air is only temporary.  Unfortunately, a nice soaker of a rain is going to mostly miss northern Vermont, which could use a good dousing. 

As expected, the cold front has gotten hung up in southern New England on into the Ohio Valley. Little disturbances rippling along the front will create a storm day from Kentucky to southern New England.

Flood watches are up for a good stretch between Tennessee and the New York City area. Strong storms could also cause some damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief spin up tornado in this stretch, too.

The soaking rains will work their way up into southern Vermont, but will struggle to reach the north.  North of Route 2, there will be less than a tenth of an inch of rain.

This July is shaping up to be much like last July. It's been quite hot and dry across northern areas (though not as hot as last July, thank goodness.)  Like last July, the heavy rain and flooding has been going on from southern New England into the Middle Atlantic States.

The comfortable weather up here in northern New England looks like it won't last as long as originally hoped. The temperature will start to creep up starting Thursday. By the weekend, it's going to be quite warm and humid again, but not as bad as it's been the past couple of days.

Right now, early indications are that temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s over the weekend, with somewhat sticky dewpoints in the mid-60s. (A dewpoint over 60 is a wee bit humid, over 70 and it's oppressive, so we'll be somewhat in the middle.)

As usual, people are wondering if the recent heat had anything to do with climate change. That climate change might have influenced the heat wave and made it a little worse, but heat waves do happen in the summer, as we all know.

Nights during this heat wave were the worst, and set some records. Boston only got down to 83 degrees Sunday tying the record there for the highest minimum temperature for any date.

Very high humidities prevent nighttime temperatures from falling much.

Heat waves seem to have gotten more humid in recent decades. I think part of it might be climate change, as a warmer general atmosphere can hold more water, making it more humid. Another reason for the increase in humidity is probably land use.

During the epic dust bowl heatwaves of the 1930s, which brought by far the highest temperatures on record to the Great Plains and parts of the Midwest, poor agricultural practices led to a rather barren landscape.

With less vegetation, there was less humidity due to reduced transpiration from plants.  Temperatures in the 1930s soared well into the 100 to 120 range in the middle ofthe country, but dew points during the worst heat waves were in the dry 50s for the most part. Lower dew points can create higher daytime high temperatures but lower overnight lows.

Nowadays, places like Iowa are wall to wall corn and soybean fields, which means lots of plant transpiration adding water to the air. The biggest hot spells of the summer now can bring dew points as high as 80 degrees to Iowa. That happened there this past Friday and Saturday, for instance.

I'm not aware of any particular research into this, but I'm guessing heat waves in Vermont were generally not as humid a century ago as they are now. Again, climate change would be a a part of that but land use is probably playing a sizeable role. 

In the 19th century, as little as 35 percent of Vermont was forested, as people cut down swaths of trees for pastureland. Today, the Green Mountain State is roughly 75 percent forested. That's a lot more leaves adding water (and oxygen!) to the atmosphere.

That possibly translates to higher summer humidity.

Just don't start cutting trees to make it less humid. It ain't worth it.

My Favorite Cold Front Of The Year Comes Through Today

Yesterday, July 20, afternoon temperatures were in the 90s with
heat indexes around 100 degrees. Exactly six moths earlier,
on the afternoon of January 20, this was the scene in
front of my St. Albans, Vermont house. 

Dozens of cold fronts pass through Vermont every year. Some of them bring improvement to the weather, others make things worse.

Today's cold front, a true gift from Canada, will surely become my favorite cold front of the year.

I wilt in heat and humidity, and this has most certainly been wilt weather over the past couple of days.

This hasn't been a long heat wave, but it sure has been oppressive. The old saying, "It's not the heat, it's the humidity," is certainly true.

Dew point temperatures are a good measure of how humid it is. If the dew point is over 60, you begin to notice a bit of stickiness to the air. If the dew point is 70 degrees, it is truely oppressive.

Yesterday, Vermont's dewpoints were mostly in the 70 to 75 degree range. At one point last evening, Highgate reported a dewpoint of 80. If accurate, which is admittedly iffy, it would be the highest dew point I've ever seen in Vermont.

For perspective, dew points of 80 degrees happen a few times every summer in places like New Orleans and Miami, but even there, it's not an everyday occurance.

High dew points mean temperatures warm at night. Drier air leads to cooler nights. The high dew points were the main reason it stayed so stuffy last night.

The cold front I referred to is actually coming through in two pieces. The first one was entering northern Vermont as of 11 a.m. or so, when I was writing this. I noticed from my perch in St. Albans, Vermont that the wind has picked up a bit and the sky darkened a bit as a narrow, broken line of showers approaches.

That line will probably intensify as it moves southeastward through Vermont today. There won't be widespread trouble with this, but a few isolated storms will become strong.

In northern Vermont, you'll notice that the humidity will have waned a bit behind this first boundary this afternoon. This first front comes through later in southern Vermont, so it will stay hot and humid, with heat advisories remaining in effect there.

The second, main cold front will come through Vermont this evening and overnight. There won't be much weather along this one either. Just scattered showers and thunderstorms, one or two of which might be strong.

You'll really notice the humidity drop down overnight.

The lack of rain with this cold front is a little concerning. There were scattered storms last evening, but not everybody was hit. The same is true today.

The cold front is still expected to get hung up in southern New England tomorrow. A disturbance riding along this front will bring a soaking rain into southern and central New England, including southern Vermont

Far northwestern Vermont seems to be getting a little dry, despite some downpours last Wednesday. It's uncertain, but it looks like this soaker might miss northern Vermont. Which is too bad.

At least it will be comfortably cool for a few days. But it looks like warmth and humidity will make a return starting next weekend. It's a little soon to determine how icky it will get. But at least we get a break.

Heat Wave Peaks Today; Iffy Forecast For Storms And Rain

Yesterday's heat and humidity made the lower atmosphere unstable
over St. Albans, Vermont last evening, resulting in these pretty clouds.
Storms did not develop because there was another warm layer above,
which prevented the strong updrafts you need for storms
So we got these nice little clouds instead.

The heat wave that has engulfed Vermont and most of the rest of the nation's eastern half should peak today, then slowly begin to wane in most places

It's a doozy, even if not that many records are being set. There will be a few record highs, but what's striking is the warm overnight lows. Several cities will set a record today for the highest minimum temperature for the date. 

Burlington, Vermont did manage to get down to 72 degrees this morning, which is hot, but not unprecedented. It'll get into the 90s today in Vermont, with heat indexes approaching 100 degrees.

Needless to say, we're still under a heat advisory.

It's worse elsewhere, of course. I don't think it got below 80 degree last night in Boston, for instance. 
There's a chance it could reach 100 degrees in Boston today or Sunday. If it does make it to 100 in Boston, it'll be something like only the 25th time in 140 plus years of record keeping.

Cities like New York and Washington have a good shot at cracking 100 degrees today.  People are wisely cancelling strenuous outdoor events, which can give people heat stroke. In New York City, for instance, a triathlon is off the table for today, as is something called OZY Fest, which would have drawn big, eclectic names like John Legend, Trevor Noah, Rachael Ray and Beto O'Rourke.

Some events in Vermont are canceled or postponed due to the heat, too. Ironically, this heat wave is a bit like a blizzard in that it's cancelling events.

It is good though that strenuous things are being put off. This heat is dangerous. Among the people succumbing to heat stroke yesterday was former NFL player Mitch Petrus, who died while working outside his Arkansas shop on Friday.

Here in Vermont, as hot as it is, I doubt we will have a record high temperature. On this date in 1977 there was a super impressive heat wave that brought temperatures up to 99 degrees in Burlington. It won't get that hot today.

Still, be careful! The humidity is way up there, so heat indexes will be up around 100 degrees, as I've already noted.

It's still unclear whether thunderstorms will help break the heat, even when a cold front comes into play on Sunday. Often, heat and humidity ends with an outbreak of frequent thunderstorms, but not always.

This appears to be the case. Depending on whether anything can get triggered, some thunderstorms could erupt this afternoon and evening. I don't think they'll be particularly widespread, but given the rich environment, any that do get going could get pretty strong pretty fast.

We still have that layer of warm air which would block updrafts, but a weak boundary coming through today might provide just enough lift in the atmosphere to trigger a storm or two.

It is a bit unpredictable when you're on the northern edge of a heat wave, like we are now.  Big complexes of storms or derechos can form. One derecho or severe storm complex has gotten going early this morning in South Dakota and is beginning to race eastward. Even if it aims towards us late tonight, I imagine it will weaken greatly before it gets here. Still, it's worth watching.

The Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal risk zone for severe storms today and tonight.

Even as the cold front comes through Sunday, the storms will be hit and miss. Not everyone will get 'em. It will remain hot and humid Sunday, especially in southern Vermont, which will be the last to see the cold front.  You'll start to notice the fresher air in the evening across the north, and statewide overnight Sunday night.

The front will get hung up in southern New England Monday, and a little storm will ripple along it. That would bring rains to parts of the area Monday and Tuesday. Nobody is quite sure yet where the front will stall, which means nobody knows where the heaviest rain might fall. There is a chance that parts of Vermont could get some pretty heavy downpours Monday and/or the first half of Tuesday.

It's still looking nice and cool next week, though as we get toward Friday it might start to warm up again. But not to the extent we're dealing with now.