"Potential" Tropical Storm Is Really Being Hyped

Just one of many potential tracks for Wannabe Isias.  Expect
forecasts to shift around a lot in the coming days.

If I were to believe some media and social media posts, I'd thing a Category 999 hurricane was about to blow Florida out of existence.

Before we got on with this post, some facts to clear up.

I hope you understand that I know that hurricanes only go up to Category 5; there's no such thing a "Category 999."

Category 5 is the worst hurricane you can get.  There is currently no Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.   In fact, there are no hurricanes anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

It's possible a tropical system of some sort could affect Florida over the weekend, but we don't know for sure if that will happen, and if it does, how big a deal it would be.

So here's the non-hype version, as best as I understand it.  If you want more information beyone what I'm about to describe, check out what real live scientists are saying over at the National Hurricane Center. 

The hype you're hearing is prompted by something called "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine." As of this morning, it was causing really crappy weather way out there in the Lesser Antilles, and will probably do the same to Haiti and the Dominican Republic tomorrow.

They haven't given "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine" a name yet because it hasn't developed a well defined circulation.  It's just a mass of gusty thunderstorms that overall have some spin, but haven't congealed into a storm yet. But as of early this morning, it was getting close to that level.

When it does (or even if) it gets its act together, it will be named Isaias.  If you're curious, it's pronounced "ees-ah-EE-ahs."

As you're probably sick of hearing from me by now, forecasting the strength of direction of any tropical system can get tricky.

It's especially so with Wannabe Isaias.  It's a huge clump of thunderstorms, and where a center eventually forms will determine its path and strength.  Right now, even the folks at National Hurricane Center are throwing up their hands a bit with this one.

But they're giving it a try, because that's what they do.

If Wannabe Isaias gets it act together today, it might get punched down to a wannabe again if it hits the Dominican Republic directly.  The mountains there will screw it up.

If Wannabe Isaias detours around that mountainous island, it could keep getting stronger.

This is where the Florida hype comes in. Wannabe Isaias  could  cause trouble in places like Puerto Rico, the Virgin Island, maybe Cuba or the Bahamas.

Forecasts tracks as of this morning take this thing toward Florida, but remember what I just said: Where the center of Wannabe Isaias eventually establishes itself will determine a lot about its future path.

It could pass south of Florida and go into the Gulf of Mexico.  Maybe it will hit Florida. Or it'll curve north and then east and miss the United States entirely.  Note to Donald Trump: We don't know if Wannabe Isaias will affect Alabama. 

We just don't know any of this for certain yet.  Don't believe anyone who tells you they know for sure where this is going. They don't. At least not yet.  And don't even get me started with questions on whether Wannabe Isaias will affect Vermont and if it does, how so?  Use your Magic 8 ball for that one.

As mentioned above, we also don't know what kind of strength or lack thereof Wannabe Isaias will have.

So here's what you SHOULD do regarding Wannabe Isaias:

1. Continue monitoring the storm, especially if you live in or have interests in the Virgin Islands, Hait, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and Florida.  No need for any kind of panic, by the way.

2. It's early in the hurricane season.  If you live in hurricane prone areas, or flood prone areas, now is a great time to pop down to Home Depot or Lowe's or whatever to pick up your hurricane preparedness supplies. This is whether or not Wannabe Isaias amounts to anything. Wear your mask  into the stores, please!

3. Have a plan in case Wannabe Isaias or any other tropical storm or hurricane comes along.  If told to evacuate, where would you go?  Make it easy to grab important documents and medications and such if you have to go.  Think about what you would do with pets.  Add in some extra planning because of this Covid pandemic.

4.  If this thing does get close to you and the National Hurricane Center and local emergency managers start barking orders, like prepare or even evacuate, do what they say. It'll make it easier on everyone. Including yourselves.

The South Moves North Once Again

An outflow boundary from a thunderstorm passing by to the north
helped create thes turbulent looking clouds over St. Albans,
Vermont yesterday.  The boundary produced wind gusts close
to 30 mph at my house, but they oddly weren't cool winds like
you'd expect from normal thunderstorm outflow. 

The Northeast had a terribly Florida type of day Monday, with temperatures in the 90s, humidity levels through the roof, and a few strong storms to boot.

Maine was downright weird. You know Maine in the summer, right?  Cool breezes, comfortable humidity, great sleeping nights, manageable summer rain showers? frigid ocean waters?

Not yesterday.  The waters in the Gulf of Maine are practically bathwater, setting records for high ocean temperatures.  That means marine life is heading north to enjoy those warm waters. That includes sharks.

Tragically, a woman was killed in a shark attack near Bailey Island Maine on Monday.

Those warm waters along the coast of New England are also bad if a stray hurricane comes along later this summer and autumn.  Northboumd hurricanes along the coast weaken because they don't do well in cold water. The warmer the water, the slower a hurricane will weaken, making one that comes along stronger than they otherwise would be if the water was chillier.

Meanwhile, in Portland, Maine, the low temperature Monday was 78 degrees. That is the warmest "low" temperature on record for any date in Portland.

Additionally, a possible tornado hit parts of Somerset and Penobscot Counties in Maine.  Radar images showed some pretty tight rotation in a severe thunderstorm, plus there was tree and wire damage in the area.

The National Weather Service will investigate to see if that was really a tornado.

For those who are easily worried and confused, the possible tornado hit the town of St. Albans, Maine, NOT St. Albans, Vermont, where I live.

The heat was on elsewhere in the Northeast.  It was 97 degrees in Scranton, Pennsylvania, the hottest it's been there in four years.  Hartford, Connecticut got up to 98 degrees.

Ahead of a weak cold front, heat advisories are up along the East Coast today from southwestern Maine to South Carolina.

Here in Vermont, it got up to 93 degrees in Burlington, the 17th day this year it has been in the 90s.  We're still in the running for the most consective days staying continuously above 60 degrees. The wild cards are how warm it stays at night in the second half of the week and into Saturday.

Current forecasts have Burlington's lows just above 60 degrees each night, so we could do it.

Showers and thunderstorms were concentrated across northern Vermont yesterday and last evening, and southern Vermont stayed dry.  However, a decent batch of rain was moving through central and southern Vermont this morning.

Today will be another relatively hot one, with highs in the 80s to around 90 in a few spots. At least the humidity will briefly go down this afternoon.

The humidity will spike up again tomorrow ahead of the next system, but that won't last long.  There could be a few more showers and storms tomorrow, too.

Which is fine. Last evening, a brief heavy downpour passed through St. Albans, Vermont. The rain was almost as warm as bath water. There was no lightning, so it felt safe to stand out in the rain and let it drench me. It felt awesome.

I joke that the rain did wonders for my naturally curly hair.  The joys of summer, I guess.

A Welcome Rinse, And Then A Hot Repeat ThIs Afternoon

I awoke to the delicious sound this morning of rain drumming on the roof of my St. Albans, Vermont house.

The weather deck of our place in St. Albans, Vermont was tropical
humid and wet this morning after some welcome showers.
More heat, humidity the rest of the day, into tomorrow, I'm afraid. 

I've been constantly whining about too-dry weather in Vermont since May, so this nice round of downpours will shut me up for a little while.

I'll still cry about the hot weather - more on that in a minute - but this was one of the better rains of the summer.  

That's not saying much, but I'll take it.

The showers were mostly focused along and north of Route 2, so the southern half to two thirds of Vermont missed out.  But the showers this morning were widespread, and many areas got a few hours of rain, sometimes heavy.

As of 8 a.m., Burlington had received just over a half inch of rain. That's not exactly an incredible amount, but still manages to make this the wettest day of the month.

The showers were clearing out by mid-morning, setting me up for my hot weather whine.

We all felt the humidity, even during those showers. The weather disturbance that caused them is zipping off to our east.  The air mass hasn't changed since yesterday, except for the fact that it's even more humid than it was on Sunday.

Today will be the 32nd consecutive day in Burlington in which the temperature has not fallen below 60 degrees. Only one other year, back in 1898, had a longer streak, with 37 such days.   Also, Burlington got above 90 degrees yesterday for the 16th time this year.

Hot summer, anyone?

Before the next weather disturbance in the pipeline comes through, it looks like we will get at least some sunshine, so once again, the warmer valleys will probably hit 90 degrees.

Heat advisories are up for the valleys of western Vermont from north of Burlington to Massachusetts, and for the Connecticut River Valley from Brattleboro to north of White River Jumction. Between the hot air and the humidity, the heat index will be between 95 and 100 degrees.

The rest of Vermont won't quite meet the criteria for a heat advisory, but it will still be damn uncomfortable.

Another one of those pesky weather disturbances will approach us this afternoon.  Combined with the hot, humid air, scattered thunderstorms will erupt very nicely.  Of course, the word "scattered" should tell you 1. Your weather reporter here has a scattered brain and 2. Only some of us will get a storm.

A small minority of these storms could contain strong gusty winds and torrential downpours. Northern Vermont, along with northern New Hampshire, northern and western New York and most of Maine, are in a marginal risk zone for severe storms today. 

That means there will probably some isolated, rather short-lived episodes of severe storms here and there today.   It's possible some of the area might be bumped up to the next level of risk, called "slight" but that just means a slightly greater coverage of severe storms. This potential upgrade is just speculation on my part. to be honest.

An alleged cold front is coming through tomorrow, but don't break out those ski parkas.  Just like a cold front exactly a week earlier, any cooler air will lag far behind the front, so Tuesday will be another very warm, humid day. Some 90s might pop up again in southeastern Vermont. Southern New England will flirt with 100 degrees in spots.

On the bright side, you'll start to notice the humidity come down late in the day, especially north and west.

Then we get another round of average summer weather, just like we did during the second half of last week.  Another rinse and repeat.

Except after today, there won't be much rinsing in Vermont.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible daily Tuesday through Thursday, but don't hold your breath.  It will trend drier and warm by next weekend.

As we head into early August, it looks like we might go back into an above normal temperature/below normal rainfall regime again.  Time will tell.

Unlike some chilly seasons in the rather distant past, this will be another year in which we Vermonters won't feel cheated out of a summer.

We're now just past the meteorological midpoint of summer, and temperatures will start falling soon enough.  In just five or six months, on some dark and frigid winter day, we will be looking back on this month's high heat and humidity with some real fondness.

Hurricane Hanna Causes A Mess, Hot Atlantic Water Spells More Trouble

Debris scattered in Texas due to Hurricane Hanna 

A quick Vermont update at the bottom of this post, but since it's hurricane season and hurricanes are quite appropriately on everybody's mind....  

HURRICANE HANNA:

Hurricane Hanna showed what unusually warm water can do to a developing hurricane.

It's basically jet fuel for such storms.

Such was the case with Hurricane Hanna, which kept getting stronger all the way until it made landfall on the southern Texas coast.

Peak sustained winds were 90 mph, stronger than pretty much everybody anticipated just a day or two earlier.

The storm caused the type of damage you'd expect from such a storm. High winds damaged some structures, more than 280,000 homes and businesses were without power, widespread flooding damaged many other buildings, and embedded tornadoes caused added trouble. A large pier along the coast collapsed. Storm surges flooded parts of downtown Corpus Christi, Texas.

Hanna videos at bottom of this post.

Hanna, now well inland, is fading fast, but still dumping torrential rains and causing a lot more flooding.

OTHER STORMS:

Hanna was no doubt powered by warmer than normal water temperatures, but that's not the only ingredient you need. It's just one of the more important ones.

Case in point is former Tropical Storm Gonzalo. It fired up awfully quickly amid super warm ocean waters, but the sputtered. That's because dry air aloft got pulled into the tiny system and choked off its thunderstorms.  Former Gonzalo is now just a few scattered showers and storms heading into the Caribbean Sea.

So you see, hot water isn't everything.  It is hurricane jet fuel, but only if everthing works on all cylinders, so to speak.

It's certainly early in the hurricane season and forecasters are already watching the next potential Atlantic troublemaker. A growing disturbance way out in the central Atlantic will probably become Tropical Storm Isaias.

Damn name is impossible to spell and even worse to pronounce, but oh well.

Computer models - at least for now - take Wannabe Isaias to near or just off the southeastern United States coast in about a week or so.  The majority of models  seem to take this system out to sea, just missing the U.S., but these long range models are notoriously unreliable.  Anything could happen, so we'll just have to wait and see.

And let's not forget about Hurricane Douglas out in the Pacific!

Hurricane warnings are up for many of the Hawaiian Island.  Douglas this morning was a little more tha 200 mies east of Honolulu with top sustained winds of 90 mph.

It'll continue to slowly weaken as it approaches the islands, but will probably still be a hurricane as it passes through Hawaii. It's not weakening that fast because, in part, water temperatures heading toward the islands are not as cool as they usually are.

Trees and infrastructure aren't really designed to hold up against strong winds in much of Hawaii, so this could be a real troublemaker

Even if Douglas doesn't go directly over any of the islands, it will be close enough to cause hurricane force gusts through downsloping forces along mountains, or winds funnel through valleys.  The upper floors of Honolulu high rises risk lots of shattered windows, too, because winds near the top floors will be stronger than at street level.

Flash flooding will be a real hazard, too at least for the rest of the day

VERMONT UPDATE

Yeah, it's pretty hot out there, despite some morning clouds in the northern  half of the state that temporarily slowed today's warming. Warmer valleys still  have a shot of getting to 90 degrees today, despite some lingering partial clouds.

We'll need to watch a so-called "ridge runner" late this afternoon and early evening along the International Border. This is a disturbance that is running over the top of a hot dome of air in the middle of the nation through the Great Lakes and into Ontario.

It'll move east to southeastward into southern Quebec and eventually western Maine later today. Some of the thunderstorms with this thing could creep south to just along the border between Quebec and Vermont later today, and a couple storms could be strong, especially in the Northeast Kingsdom.

Other little "ridge runners" might affect us with scattered showers and storms late tonight and again Monday afternoon and evening.  The biggest "threat" from these will probably be locally torrential downpours. Some places won't get any rain and all. It'll be the usual hit and miss type stuff.

It's possible clouds tomorrow will hold temperatures below 90 in the north, but even if that happens, it'll be ridiculously humid, so it will be uncomfortable.

Just like last Tuesday, a weak cold front will come through this Tuesday with a risk of some showers and storms, and gradually lowering humidity starting later on Tuesday. We hope.

Videos:

News video summarizing the storm.  Love the transition from official telling people to stay inside during the storm and then cutting immediately to ABC report in the eye of the storm:



Lots of debris in the water on the Corpus Christi waterfront:

Hanna, Now A Hurricane, Steals The Show. Also: Vermont Heat AGAIN!

Radar of Hurricane Hanna east of Corpus Christi, Texas this
morning. Powerful winds and storms now completelu
encircle Hanna's eye, which means further
strenthening is likely until the storm
makes landfall this afternoon. 

A few days ago, it looked like we would spend the rest of the week talking about a would-be hurricane named Gonzalo, while ignoring a nothingburger in the Gulf of Mexico.

As more proof that the tropics can be unpredictable, the "nothingburger" is now Hurricane Hanna, and it's about to strike southern Texas. And cause lots of problems.

Satellite views of Hanna overnight showed it organizing quite well, forming an eye with curved bands of intense thunderstorms surrounding that center.

The National Hurricane Center confirmed that as of around 7 a.m. this morning, top sustained winds in Hanna had reached 75 mph, enough to be the first Atlantic hurricane of the season.

It looks like Hanna will keep strengthening until it hits the southern Texas coast this afternoon.  The only thing keeping Hanna from become an even bigger monster is it doesn't have much time to get more powerful before it makes landfall.

However, powerful thunderstorms managed to completely surround the eye of Hanna as its central air pressure lowered. That's certainly a great recipe for further strengthening. Some observers  this morning were wondering if top winds could reach 90-100 mph.

Don't think for a minute so called "weaker" Category 1 hurricanes don't cause a lot of problems. This one will create a lot of difficulties, as most Cat 1's do.  It will cause wind damage. Even worse, storm surges of three to five feet above normal sea levels are expected around and south of Corpus Christi.  It's a low coast line, so that will cause lots of flooding.

Worse still, Hanna will dump between six and 12 inches of rain on far southern Texas, which will cause a lot of flash flooding.

There's more bad news with this:  A hurricane that is growing stronger as it nears the coast is especially bad because it catches people off-guard.  Some people in southern Texas might have been saying yesterday, "Oh, a tropical storm. I guess we won't have a beach day on Saturday."

Now, they have little time to get out of the way of wind, storm surgest and inland flooding.  I was, however, heartened to see news video of LOTS of cars driving away from the southern Texas coastline Friday evening.

Additionally, as we've all heard on the news, Texas is enduring a terrible spike in illnesses, deaths and hospitalizations due to the Covid-19 pandemic.  So on top of the extreme health crisis, southern Texas has to deal with a hurricane.

How do you socially distance in evacutation centers?  What if people are hurt or need to be rescued during Hurricane Hanna when medical and emergency teams are already stretched so thin?

They told us way back in the spring this would be a difficult hurricane season.  This is the opening salvo, and it's certainly not a good one.

Going back to the other tropical storm, Gonzalo, it's falling apart.  It will bring tropical storm conditions to some of the Windward Islands, and it's still expected to dissipate in the Caribbean Sea.  You never know what will happen to Gonzalo's remnants in a few days, so its currently disorganized mass of clouds could come back from the dead in a week or so.

VERMONT HEAT OVERPERFORMS AGAIN

Speaking of things that keep rising from the dead, another hot spell is coming to Vermont, especially Sunday and Monday.

There had been hope earlier in the week, that temperatures would stay pretty close to normal, continuing a trend that started Tuesday and continued through Friday. All four of those days were only slightly warmer than average, instead of torrid.

It's back to hot again for a few days. Today won't be too bad, because humidity levels are pretty comfortable. Still, afternoon highs will get into the 80s pretty much statewide.  The broader, wider valleys will probably get into the upper 80s

The humidity will increase by Sunday, along with the temperatures. Burlington could easily see its 16th 90 degree reading of the year tomorrow, and we might make it to #17 on Monday.

It doesn't look like there will be any cooling thunderstorms Sunday. However, on a very muggy Sunday night, and early Monday, some weather disturbances riding over the northern edge of the Northeast U.S. heat ridge could bring showers and thunderstorms to Vermont. If they happen, it's most likely north of Route 2.

Scattered hit and miss  showers and storms could punctuate the heat and humidity Monday.  A cold front slowly sagging south through northern New England will gradually bring relief to us later Tuesday and especially Wednesday, when temperatures will fall - and I use that term loosely - to readings that are similar to what we've had the past three or four days.

Hanna And Her Siblings

As expected, Tropical Storm Hanna formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is going to cause some mischief along the southern coast of Texas.

Hanna looked pretty healthy on satellite images this morning. As of 4 a.m., the storm only had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, but I'm sure they'll find that it will have strengthened by later this morning.

Luckily, Hanna likely won't have time to strengthen all that much as it heads west towards Texas.  As of early this morning, it was only about 280 miles east of Corpus Christi, Texas and will make landfall by early Saturday afternoon.

Still, a well-organized system like Hanna sitting over very toasty Gulf of Mexico waters can strengthen fast. There's a chance that Hanna could become a hurricane even though it's already fairly close to land. Only after landfall is it guaranteed to weaken.

Pretty much all tropical storms and hurricanes weaken upon landfall.

It looks like Hanna might dump upwards of a half foot of rain in some sections of southern Texas, certainly enough to raise a flood risk.  It will have gotten stronger by the time it reaches Texas. It probably won't be all the way up to hurricane strength, but it might get close.

Meanwhile, Hanna's unreliable little brother Tropical Storm Gonzalo continues to churn east of the Lesser Antilles. That storm is a wild card, because it's small and unpredictable.   Smaller storms can strengthen or fall apart on a dime, and that's the kind of thing we're seeing with Gonzalo.

A little dry air intruded on Gonzalo yesterday, disrupting its circulation.  It still might get stronger as it moves into the Lesser Antilles by the weekend.  It's then expected to get weaker again once it's into the eastern Caribbean.

But little Gonzalo probably isn't done with surprises yet, so  the National Hurricane Center will certainly keep a close eye on the little devil.

Meanwhile, out in the Pacific, Hanna's big brother Hurricane Douglas continues to spin toward Hawaii. Douglas was a Category 4 monster early this morning with top sustained wind of 130 mph. Luckily, Douglas isn't near any land at the moment, so it's not wrecking anything.

However, Douglas is still headed toward Hawaii.  Cooler water in its path and strong winds aloft will surely weaken Douglas. It will still be a borderline hurricane/tropical storm with winds of 75 mph as it gets near the Big Island of Hawaii over the weekend, according to current forecasts.

Back in the Atlantic Ocean, a strong weather disturbance is coming off the west coast of Africa and will start to head west far out there.  This one could also eventually turn into a tropical storm or hurricane, so stay tuned!

Rinse And Repeat: Storms Again, Mostly South, More Tropical Trouble

A little humid air and a little light rain help add a bit of color
to my St. Albans, Vermont yard. 

It seems like the Burlington-area anti rain force field broke down a little bit this morning, as I've noticed a fairly nice downpour passed through the Queen Cith this morning.

Up here in St. Albans, it did rain a little, so I'll take it.

Meanwhile, the tropics are bubbling with activity.  I'll get into that in a bit, but before that, let's get into the local stuff first.

VERMONT RAIN PROSPECTS/WARMTH

It would be nice if it rained more, but I think northern Vermont is mostly done with the rain today, save for a scattering of showers and storms - the  hit and miss kind - this afternoon.

Like yesterday the real action in the thunderstorm department will be south. Though this time, more of Vermont looks to be involved.

Central and southern New England, including southern and eastern Vermont and southern New Hampshire, are in the NOAA' Storm Prediction Center's slight risk zone for severe thunderstorms today.

That's the second of five alert levels and means there is the possibility of scattered severe storms, but nothing widespread.

The rest of Vermont, and most of  the rest of northern New England is in a marginal risk zone, which means there might be an isolated severe storm here and there.

Basically, the clouds and rain in northern Vermont and New York stabilized the atmosphere, making it harder, but not impossible, for afternoon showers and storms to develop.  Central and southern Vermont didn't get into this morning's rain. There will be a little more sun there this morning, which could help encourage afternoon storms

After today's storms go by, there's no precipitation in the offing until at least later Sunday. We have another toasty weekend ahead, with daytime highs in the 80s, with maybe a spot 90 here and there.

The following is still a bit uncertain, but we have a shot - just a chance - early next week of having the coolest spell of weather since mid-June.  If this comes to pass, it won't be chilly by any means, but there might be a few days in there that don't even make it to 80 degrees in the afternoon, and Champlain Valley nighttime temperatures could go below 60 degrees.

In other words, we have a round of average summer weather coming up for a change.

This coolish spell is likely to end prospects for Burlington to have its longest stretch of consecutive days that stayed above 60 degrees, but we will probably have the second longest such stretch.

According to the National Weather Service in South Burlington, the longest stretch of continous above 60 days was 37 in 1898.  The second longest stretch was 30 days in 1988.

As of yesterday, we're up to 27 days, and it most likely won't go below 60 through Sunday

TROPICS: GONZALO, WANNABE HANNA AND DOUGLAS

Tropical Storm Gonzalo, as expected, got going way out in the Atlantic yesterday, but its future is highly questionable.

As of now, the National Hurricane Center expects to become a hurricane for awhile, then maybe weaken as it enters the Caribbean Sea.

However, as noted yesterday, Gonzalo is a tiny little thing. It doesn't take much to disrupt a small storm.

Several meteorologists noticed this morning that an intrusion of dry air had disrupted Gonzalo's circulation early this morning.  That might hinder any intensification. We shall see.

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico I dismissed yesterday as a nothingburger now seems poised to become a tropical storm. If it does do that, they'll name it Hanna.

If Hanna forms as expected, it will be the earliest eight storm of the season on record.  The old record for earliest "H" storm was on August 3, 2005.

Meanwhile, we have a sleeper in the form of Hurricane Douglas. I call it a sleeper because it hasn't been really getting a lot of attention.

But it should.

Douglas is way out in the Pacific Ocean heading west away from distant Mexico.  Top winds this morning were 120 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The problem is, it's heading toward Hawaii.  Douglas will weaken over cooler waters as it approaches Hawaii, but it will still be a low end hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time it gets there.

Hawaii seems to have gotten more prone to tropical storms in recent years and decades.   Due to natural ocean currents, the water is coolish around Hawaii, which tends to kill hurricanes. Such storms thrive on hot water.

However, the oceans around Hawaii aren't as cold as they used to be, in large part due to climate change.  Which means if all other things being equal, hurricanes and tropical storms near Hawaii don't tend to weaken as fast ast they used to.

Back in the Atlantic, yes, it's been a very busy start to the hurricane season, but the power of the storms have been overwhelming.

But this hurricane/tropical storm season isn't nearly as dramatic and active as the first part of the notorious 2005 season (which eventually brought us such disasters as Katrina and Rita).

There's a measure of how active a hurricane season is something called Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE.  It's a measure of how intense a particular hurricane season is based on the intensity and longevity of each tropical storm or hurricane.

Though we have a record number of storms this year, they've all been rather weak and short lived. According to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist and expert on Atlantic hurricanes.

The ACE number so far in the Atlantic Ocean is eight as of yesterday. Normal for this time of year is seven, so it's close.  In the notorious 2005 season, ACE was already up to 56.

Even if Gonzalo turns into a dud and Hanna turns out to be a weakling, the ACE count will probably increase to a little above average in the next few days.

Shower Chances, Maybe Strong South, Tropics Turning Active

Hanging baskets looking to the clouds and waiting for rain recently
on my back deck in St. Albans, Vermont. Flower and structural
design by my husband, Jeff Modereger

It's still not nearly as wet as I'd like it to be here in Vermont as the trend in below normal rainfall has continued since it at least April.

There are chances for showers and storms off and on through next week.  But I don't see anything major at this point. It also appears  - for now, anyway - that the imaginary anti-rain force in the Champlain Valley is holding strong.

Shower and storm chances look best for the next couple of days outside the Champlain Valley, though we can hold out some hope a stray shower will hit there, too.

There's actually a chance of strong to severe storms today in far southern Vermont and points south of there through southwestern New England down into the Middle Atlantic states.  High winds are the biggest threat in this broad area of severe storm risk, though an isolated, brief tornado can't be ruled out.

Further north, there might be a rumble or two of thunder, but nothing huge. Already this morning, a narrow band of showers has dampened a good chunk of southern Vermont, but that was moving out.

By later today and this evening, there will be a good shot at some showers outside the Champlain Valley.  In the valley, there will probably be some patches of rain, but the chances are there are a little less than elsewhere in the state, at least in my opinion.

It looks like more showers and storms will form tomorrow, but again, the best coverage seems like it could be outside the Champlain Valley.  It's not that northwestern Vermont will miss out on the rain. That area will almost certainly get some.  Just not as much as points south and east.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has all of Vermont of most of the Northeast in a marginal risk zone for severe storms on Thursday. That means there might be isolated incidents of strong, damagiing wind gusts, but nothing widespread.

The next real chance of rain in Vermont after tomorrow will come along on Sunday.  No guarantees on how much that will amount to, but all the meteorologists will surely keep an eye on that.

TROPICAL TROUBLE

Hurricane experts have ramped up the alarm bells about this year's hurricane season potential, given the unusually warm waters in much of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes tend to form. Other atmospheric factors still favor a lot of storms. Even worse, the current weather pattern, it it holds, would tend to steer storms toward the United States.

Summertime clouds not quite getting their act together enough
to produce showers this past Monday over St. Albans, Vermont.

We've already had hints of a troublesome year, since we're way ahead of normal in terms of how many tropical storms have already formed. There's already been six, but thankfully, they've all tended to be pretty weak.

Stronger hurricanes tend to get going in August and September, and you should expect the tropics to start becoming more active right about now.

The tropics certainly got that memo. Probably by the time you read this, Tropical Storm Gonzalo will have formed way out in the central Atlantic.  From there it will move west toward the Caribbean Sea, but exactly where and at what strength is anybody's guess

Wannabe Gonzalo is a tiny, cute little thing spinning out there.  Tropical systems that are small in size are notoriously hard to forecast, both in terms of strength and direction.  When such a storm is tiny, just a little bit of dry air intruding or a few gusts of strong upper level winds can tear it apart and kill it.

On the other hand, a tiny storm can defy predictions and cloak itself in its own protective shield of moisture, and strengthen quickly.   Right now the National Hurricane Center is taking, in my opinion, a correct conservative approach and just maintaining Wannabe Gonzalo as a tropical storm right through the weekend.  They'll surely change and update this forecast in the coming days.

It's possible Wannabe Gonzalo could pose a United States threat next week, but that is a big question mark right now.

Another weaker tropical type system is lurking in the Gulf of Mexico.  It's unlikely to become a tropical storm, though some computer models think it will strengthen to that level.  It's headed toward Texas, and will give parts of that state a deep soaking this coming weekend.

Another batch of storms that will move off the west coast of Africa in the next few days will also have to be watched in case it turns into an eventual threat.

More Vermont 90s, And Interesting Hot Green Mountain State Trends

Burlington managed to eek out another day above 90 degrees on Monday, making it the 15th day this year already in which it has gotten to the 90 degree mark.

A so-called cold front had passed through earlier in the day, but the slightly cooler air lagged far back in Ontario, so it wasn't really until evening that we began to feel some refreshing breezes from the northwest.

Ben Frechette, a meteorologist at WPTZ-TV, loves looking at data, as I do, shared some more stats yesterday.

I've been saying all along that the average number of days that get to 90 degrees in Burlington each year is five.

That's true if you look at the data starting in the 1880s and going through until now.  However, many climatologists look at the average going back the past 30 years or so.  If you do that, the average number of 90 days in Burlington is eight.

Frechette shared the chart you see in this post.  (Click on it to make it bigger and easier to see).

The chart shows the yearly number of 90 degree days in Burlington dating back to 1883. The darker line you see in the chart is the 30 year rolling average for the entire data set.

As you can, there is a definite trend toward increasing numbers. Such a long term trend suggests to me that climate change is playing a role, but it's probably not the only thing going on.

There are probably some cycles thrown in amid the general climate change warming. You can clearly see a spike in the number of 90 degree days in the 1940s.

Part of that might be because there was less forest in Vermont back then than there is now.  If you have more forests, you tend to have cooler temperatures in the summer because of all the transpiration and water evaporation from the trees.

But there was about the same or even even less forest cover in the decades before the 1940s, and no corresponding higher number of 90 degree days.  For whatever reason, though, the 1940s were generally warmer and drier than previous decades.

Vermont had as little as 20 percent forest cover in the late 1800s due to farmers clearing the land. By the 1980s, forest cover had reached about 75 percent.  It has stayed relatively steady since.

Moreover, rainfall has increased in Vermont during the past few decades, at a rate of about 1.5 inches per decade since 1960 or so.

Scientists think climate change is largely behind the increased rainfall. Remember, all that water from the trees and those rain storms might make it feel more humid in the summer, but the moisture also works to keep the temperatures from spiking.

That's because in wet times, more of the sun's energy goes toward evaporating water than heating the air. Plus, excess moisture can at times create extra clouds, blocking the sun, though that's not always the case.

You'd think the increasing forests and the heavier rainfall would work against an increasing trend of summertime 90 degree weather. But you see the rising trend in Frechette's chart.

One big caveat:  The immediate Burlington area has seen more suburbanization and sprawl over the past four decades than most other parts of Vermont.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington makes sure to calibrate things to ensure accurate temperature readings.

Still, I don't see as much of a warming trend in areas of Vermont that haven't changed as much as the Champlain Valley has. This part of the Champlain Valley has probably lost of bit of forest cover since 1970 or so.

I admit I have not deeply analyzed data from places like Montpelier or St Johnsbury, but I suspect the rising temperature trend lines in those communities might be a bit more tempered.

Maybe Frechette can look at that, although the dude is already incredibly busy with his weather duties at WPTZ.

Not 100 Degrees, Here's Why (But Still Plenty Hot!)

It's still hot, so I'll try again to cool you off with a winter
photo of my St. Albans, Vermont driveway. 

Burlington, Vermont fell well short of the speculated 100 degree reading many of us were contemplating on Sunday.

Things have to line up just perfectly to reach the triple digits during Burlington heat waves and they assuredly did NOT line up correctly on Sunday.

It's only gotten to 100 degrees four times in the past 150 years or so in Burlington, so it's a pretty high bar to cross.

If the atmosphere is hot enough for 100 degrees, you're not actually going to get there in  Vermont unless you have full sunshine.  We didn't have that on Sunday

The writing almost seemed on the wall by early to mid morning Sunday.   A dying complex of shower and storms up in Quebec sent some clouds across the northern half of Vermont that didn't clear out unti mid-mid morning.

That delayed the days warming and put us behind schedule to reach that magic triple digit figure.

We had a few hours of full sunshine that brought temperatures up above 90 by shortly after noon.  However, a powerful line of thunderstorms in southern Ontario had blossomed and blew a veil of high, thin clouds our way, starting in the early afternoon.

The clouds dimmed the sun, preventing it from fully heating us.  Burlington "only" reached 95 degrees. It wasn't even quite the hottest day this summer, but it was pretty damn hot by anyone's standard

Burlington fell short of the record high for the date, which was 98 degrees. However, St. Johnsbury broke their record high, reaching 95 degrees besting the town's old record for the date of 93.  Montpelier tied its record high of 91, and Springfield in Vermont's southeast tied its record high of 92.

RAIN MOSTLY MISSES, AGAIN

It was interesting to see the Champlain Valley's 2020 anti-rain force field in action yesterday. That powerful line of storms in Ontario basically went "poof" on its way here.  In the tragic remnants of that line of storms, a new batch of storms formed in northwestern New York, prompting severe thunderstorm warnings in the Adirondacks.

That line fell apart on the way to the Champlain Valley so we only got light showers. More storms then redeveloped east of the Champlain Valley.

A small local downpour did go over my house early this morning.  I guess the anti-rain force field was taking a pre-dawn nap. Between light showers last evening and a 4 a.m. - ish  downpour, I collected a respectable 0.7 inches of rain in St. Albans.  Burlington could only muster 0.07 inches.

STILL A HOT SUMMER

We've got one more hot one to go today.  A cold front has gone through, but you wouldn't know it.  It's still hot and muggy.  There's a slight chance Burlington could reach 90 degrees again today, but it most likely will be well into the 80s instead.

Somewhat cooler, but still warmish weather will continue the rest of the week.

So far this summer in Burlington, it's gotten to at least 95 degrees six times.  The record for the most such days is nine, in 1944 followed by eight in 2018.

Burlington has had 14 days in which it got to 90 or better so far this year, The most in a single year is 26.

Sunday was the 24th consecutive day in which the temperature failed to drop below 60 degrees in Burlington. The record is 30 such days in 1988.  I don't think we'll break that record because I suspect we might have a couple days this week in which it'll go into the upper 50s at night.

For what they're worth, the long range forecasts don't really promise us any strong Canadian cold fronts anytime soon. The 8 to 14 day outlook calls for continued generally warmer than average weather for us into the first days of August.

Will Vermont See A Rare 100 Degree Day Today?

Will it get to 100 degrees today in Burlington, Vermont?

As we said yesterday, today is going to be terribly hot across Vermont and surrounding areas.  Pretty much everybody will be in the 90s, and the whole state is under a heat advisory, except the extreme northeast corner of the state.

The speculation has started on this one: Will Burlington, Vermont reach a rare 100 degrees today?

It's only been 100 degrees in Burlington four times since they started keeping track of this stuff in the late 1800s.

Those times were:

100 degrees, July 3, 1911
101 degrees, August 11,1944
100 degrees June 19, 1995
100 degrees July 14, 1995.

Will today join this list?

The National Weather Service in South Burlington decided to pull the trigger and predict a high of 100 degrees today.  However, meteorologists at the NWS office note that some factors might prevent us from getting that hot.

It might "only" get to between 97 and 99 degrees.

Following are the factors that would encourage a reading of 100 degrees and factors that argue against it.

FOR 100 DEGREES

Computer forecast models that show a good layer of the atmosphere can support such temperatures down here near the ground.

Southwest winds that can compress the air coming down the slopes of the Adirondacks, thereby heating the air more than it would otherwise.

The air will mix well in the lower several thousand feet of the atmosphere. That would bring the humidity down a bit.  If the humidity is lower, then it can get hotter.

There should be a lot of sun this afternoon, which obviously encourages heating.

It's been dry.  Wet ground adds humidity to the air, and as noted, actual temperatures have a harder time reaching their maximum temperature with higher humidity.  All four cases in which it was 100 degrees in Burlington came during dry periods, like the one we're in.

AGAINST 100 DEGREES

Forecast models this morning indicate the airmass will be marginally cooler than forecasts issued yesterday, but by all means remain hot.

A dying mass of showers and thunderstorms in southern Quebec early this morning was keeping clouds across northern Vermont.   If clearing is delayed later this morning, it could prevent temperatures today from maxing out at their highest potential.

Will the southwest winds pick up just enough influence from Lake Champlain to cool things to just below 100 degrees?

It's also simply damn hard for temperatures to get to 100 degrees. Everything has to come together perfectly.  A few rogue fair weather cumulus clouds in the afternoon could easily kill chances of it getting to 100 degrees.

BEYOND TODAY

There are encouraging signs that it might stay as warm for the next week or so as initially thought.  There's going to be an ahhhhh factor here and there over the coming days.

Tonight will humid and stuffy as hell ahead of an oncoming cold front. To make sleeping more difficult, this cold front is likely to bring some scattered showers and storms overnight, especially north and west.

Storms ahead of this cold front will likely be severe this afternoon and evening across southern Ontario and western New York, but will weaken as they move into Vermont.

The actual cooler air lags well behind the cold front, so Monday will still be very warm and kind of humid, with temperatures in the 80s to possibly near 90.

Then we get into the better weather.  Dew points, a measure of how comfortably or uncomfortably humid it is out there, are expected to drop into the low 50s Tuesday.

That's the lowest they've been in weeks and definitely in the comfortable zone.

It'll probably turn vaguely humid midweek but nothing extraordinary.  The core of the nation's heat will be centered further west for awhile, temperatures will probably stay pretty close to normal for the next week or so after today's heat.

Sunday's Squirt Of Hot Air Will Be Nasty

The middle of the nation is still broiling under a relentless heat wave, and a squirt of that very hot air looks like it will make it to Vermont on Sunday.    

The color shading on this map has most of New England outside of
Maine in the 95-100 degree range Sunday afternoon. Click on
the image to make it bigger and easier to see.  If you look
closely, this particular map has a foreast high of 99 degrees
in Burlington, Vermont. We shall see. 

The good news is the hot air will be flushed out by a cold front by Monday, though it won't exactly be "cold" behind said weather front. 

Temperatures here will remain above normal, but  not torrid, like the kind of weather expected in parts of the Plains and South, and below the Mason-Dixon Line along the East Coast.  

A warm front passed through yesterday, with disappointingly light showers in the morning.  We had a gorgeous evening, though, but the warm to hot air is now being established.  Today will be definitely on the warm side, with highs well into the 80s, with a few spot 90 degree readings in the warmer valleys.

Tonight, especially in the Champlain Valley where a south wind will prevent radiational cooling, it will be on the stuffy side.  I imagine the "low" temperature in Burlington tomorrow morning will be around 75 degrees or so.

All the ingredients are coming together for a very hot Sunday. Temperatures through a thick layer of the atmosphere will be at near record high values. 

For the Champlain Valley, the wind will be coming out of the southwest.  It'll come down the slope of the Adirondacks in that scenario.  Air flowing down the slopes of a mountain gets compressed, which heats it.  

As usual, the air column over us does get cooler with height.  But at around 8,000 feet overhead, says the National Weather Service there will be another layer of warm air which would prevent any cooling thunderstorms to develop on Sunday. 

If you want to cool off, here's a photo of cars stuck on the hill near
my St. Albans, Vermont house during a March, 2017 blizzard

Taken together, all this means an we should endure an expected high in the mid to upper 90s in the Champlain Valley on Sunday and highs of 88 to 95 in pretty much the rest of Vermont. 

One or two models or forecasts I've seen predict a high of 100 degrees in Burlington Sunday. I suppose that's possible, but I see it as pretty unlikely. 

To nobody's surprise, a big chunk of Vermont and surrounding areas is under a heat advisory on Sunday, so take it easy!  Do your outdoor work very early in the morning, and retreat to air conditioning if possible by afternoon.  Have your nice drinks of water or other refreshing non-alcoholic beverage handy, too.

I'm saying non-alcoholic, not because I'm on some sort of temperance movement. It's just that alcohol can exascerbate the effects of heat. 

The only saving grace regarding the heat tomorrow is that the air will mix in the lowest several thousand feet of the atmosphere. That will tend to lower the humidity just a bit for a time in the afternoon. And most of us will have a steady breeze, instead of having to endure still, hot air 

The record high in Burlington Sunday is 98 degrees set in 2013.  That's a pretty high record, so it will be tough to beat. Montpelier's record high for the date on Sunday is 92 degrees, so that one is in jeopardy. St. Johnsbury's record high is 95 degrees, so we'll see about that. 

That cold front is coming through later Sunday night or early Monday.  The timing is such that we probably won't see any severe thunderstorms with it.  Any rain that does fall Sunday night or early Monday will unfortunately be only scattered a brief.

A few spots might get a decent dousing from some embedded downpours, but this won't be any kind of widespread rain. 

Behind the cold front, it will be dry and only a little warmer than average for the first half of the week. Other weather disturbances give us a risk of some showers later in the week but temperatures will still remain mostly in the low 80s for highs.  So that's not terrible. 

The Monthly Global Assessment: Surprise! Hot Again

As we do every month, we check in with NOAA's Centers For Environmental Information to get the regular update as they check the world's temperature.

As always, the Globe is running a fever.

June, 2020 was the worlds third hottest on record.

I suppose if you're looking for a bright side, at least June wasn't #1 or #2  on the heat scale like most months in the past year.

Overall, the places with the warmest temperatures, relative to average were most of the United States, southern Brazil, northern and eastern Europe, northern Russia, southern China and the North Pacific Ocean.

Even in a warming world, there are always places that trend cooler in a particular month. This time, those places were western and southeastern Russia, India, Greenland and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean.

It was good that Greenland was cool at the time of year when the sun angle is highest in the northern hemisphere. It probably cut down on the amount of melting Greenland has been seeing in recent years.

Of course, other parts of the Arctic were much warmer than average.

As of July 15, Arctic sea ice extent was the lowest on record for this time of year, beating the record low last set in 2011, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The sea ice is particularly pathetic north of Siberia, which has had months of far above normal temperatures this year.

IN VERMONT

Locally, as we know, it's been a hot summer so far in Vermont. We have another squirt of very hot weather coming up, but luckily, this one won't last super long.

You'll notice the humidity building today as showers taper off. (The showers, as I expected, were more lame than many forecasts).  Northwest Vermont in particular seems to have an anti-rain force field this summer.

Saturday will be humid and relatively  hot, with 90 readings likely in the warmer valleys.

I'm sure there will be some heat advisories Sunday as the humidity builds more and temperatures go well into the 90s.  Burlington at this point is expected to get up to 97 degrees Sunday, which would make it the hottest day of the year if it comes to pass.

Luckily,  cold front will come to the rescue late Sunday night and Monday. After the front passes, it won't exactly be cold, but temperatures next week look as if they'll be near, or just a little warmer than average.

If the cold front is later than expected, we might squeeze one more 90 degree afternoon Monday, but after that, I'm guessing no more 90-degree weather for the rest of next week.

Nationwide Heat Is Certainly Persistent

And the heat goes on.  Most of the nation, including Vermont
can expect above normal temperatures through the
end of July. 

It's been a hot month for pretty much all but the northwestern corner of the continental United States as no real cold fronts or pockets of cooler air have interrupted the long, drawn out heat in the troubled summer of 2020.

The length of time the heat has settled over us, and the broad area it has covered is the impressive part. There haven't been many all time record hot tempertures, but the torrid weather has just dragged on.

Washington DC's longest stretch of consecutive days at 90 degrees or hotter is 21, set in 1980 and 1988.  As of today, they're up to 20 consecutive days this year.  The forecast high in DC today is 90 degrees. Tomorrow, it's forecast to reach 94 degrees.

Miami, Florida, just endured 20 days with a daily heat index reaching at least 103 degrees.  There have been 23 days this year with a high temperature of at least 94 degrees in Miami, the most for any entire year on record. And it's only mid-July, so there's more coming.

Buffalo, New York,  endured 90 degree temperatures daily from July 3 through 10, peaking at 98 degrees. Those eight days were the longest streak of 90 degree weather on record.

An exception to the lack of all time record highs rule this summer is Texas.  San Antonio, Texas on Monday had its hottest July day on record when it reached 107 degrees. Amarillo, Texas set a record for the month of July and suffered its second hottest day in that city's history with a reading of 110 degrees. Del Rio, Texas tied its July record of 112 the same day.

In Death Valley, California, the low and high temperature there Sunday were 100 degrees and 128 degrees. Yes, it's always torrid in Death Valley during the summer, but that 128 degrees is the hottest any place in the world has seen for at least two years.

The Pacific Northwest is the one "air conditioned" spot in the U.S. this summer. For instance, all but three of the first 15 days of July in Spokane, Washington were a little cooler than average.

Here in Vermont, the warmth has been persistent, too. Especially at night.  Burlington is having one of the longest periods on record in which the temperature has stayed at 60 degrees or above.  So far, we're up to 20 consecutive days.  The longest such stretch was 30 days in July and August, 1988.

Only one day so far this month has failed to reach 80 degrees. It was "only" 79 degrees on Tuesday.

Those looking for a break in the warmth, heat and humdity are out of luck. We in Vermont enjoyed a taste of slightly lower humidity the past couple of days, but that's coming back, starting tomorrow.

A warm front will at least hopefully bring a round of showers tomorrow morning. By Saturday and Sunday, we will probably be closing in on 90 degrees again, with increasing humidity.

It will cool down slightly again next week, but it will be far from chilly, with daily highs still likely to exceed 80 degrees, with no big pushes of cool, dry air from Canada expected. The overall pattern features generally warmer than normal weather here in the Northeast through the end of the month.

Flash Flood Update: Damage, But Could Have Been Woirse

Haile remained piled up in Sanford, Maine after Tuesday morning's
intense hail storm. 

I'm sure there are plenty of residents around eastern Vermont, New Hampshire and western Maine trying to restore washed out driveways and damp basements in the wake of yesterday's flash flooding.

There is a fair amount of damage here and there, but it could have been worse, considering how hard the rain came down.  It seems like it let up just in time to prevent any kind of catastrophe.

Still, water flowed into two operating rooms at a hospital in Woodsville, New Hampshire, forcing the cancelation of two surgeries. Several roads in that area were closed by flooding.

In Vermont, storm reports include an eight by six foot section of road washed out in East Cabot, and another washed out road near St. Johnsbury.  St. Johnsbury itselt reported 1.83 inches of rain Tuesday. In Bradford, Vermont, about 3.5 inches of rain fell in less than six hours.

The most dramatic of the storms occured in southwestern Maine, where hail fell so heavily in some spots that snow plows were called out. A car dealership in Sanford, Maine ended up with more than 1,000 cars sustaining hail damage. 

A couple videos of the Maine hail storm at the bottom of this post.

In northwestern Vermont, the anti-rain force field held, as usual.  Not a drop of rain fell here in St. Albans, and just a trace was reported in Burlington.

The next shot of rain comes Thursday night as a weather front approaches from the west, then kind of washes out over or just past us. It still has enough oomph to give us at least a shot of some showers and scattered thunder Thursday night and Friday.

Videos:

Here's what the hail storm looked like in Biddeford, Maine:


A drive through the part of Maine that got hit by that hail storm.  Notice the ice accumulation and hail fog.  This dense fog often forms right after a hail storm as the hail cools the humid post-storm air near the ground.

That Flash Flood Threat Materialized For Some Of Us - Dangerously

While New Hampshire and eastern Vermont were flooding, incredible
hail piled up this morning near Wells, Maine. Photo by Shawna Marie
Druin via Twitter 

While those of us in northwestern Vermont had a quiet weather night and early morning, it was anything but in eastern Vermont and New Hampshire.

That flash flood threat I spoke of yesterday materialized in some of those spots. Thunderstorms, a few of them severe, and torrential showers and thunderstorms developed over night and are continuing in those regions this morning.

All this is a developing situation, but here's what we have as of mid-morning.

Flash flood warnings are up for most of central and northern New Hampshire and bits and pieces of eastern and northeastern Vermont.  

The trouble in New Hampshire is particularly severe, with reports of life threatening flooding in Woodsville, New Hampshire, just across the Connecticut River from Wells River, Vermont.

Water was said to be pouring into the local hospital in Woodsville. Rainfall rates further north in Sugar Hill, New Hampshire were as high as five inches per hour for brief periods.  Flash flood warnings were up this morning in Vermont near Woodsville, in towns like Wells River and Bradford.

As of 8:30 a.m. today, another big are of of  concern in Vermont is a stretch along Route 2 and surrounding hill towns between Marshfield and Danville. 

That flash flood warning near Route 2 was later extended further east and north to include St. Johnsbury and Lyndonville.  There is a river bank mobile home park along the Passumpsic River that is prone to flooding. I worry about that neighborhood this morning.

The rain has really come down hard there and was still pouring as o 9 a.m. Some spots were already up to 3 inches of rain in short order, with more falling. That gush of water is no doubt sweeping down steep hills and mountains, causing a potentially dangerous flash flood situation.

Ominously, the heavy rain appeared to be sitting nearly stationary on radar images over northeastern and eastern Vermont and western New Hampshire through mid-morning. This could get really, really bad.

The storms also look pretty intense, with plenty of lightning strikes in northern Vermont east of the Greens and northern New Hampshire. There's still the risk of severe storms, too, especially further east in New Hampshire and Maine. Hail completely covered the ground near Wells, Maine this morning. The dangerous weather could extend into northern Massachusetts as well.

The flood threat will continue today in those regions through the day, while those of us who were begging for a little piece of the action to the west in the Champlain Valley will see little or nothing.

The main culprit in the troublesome weather east of the Green Mountains is sometning I just talked about here in this blog thingy a couple weeks ago: A mesoscale convective system, or MCS. 

They're common in the Midwest and Plains.  They are much less frequent in New England, but certainly do happen, often with damaging results.

It's too early to really assesswhat kind of damage, ias happened in the area hit by this New England MCS.  I do know there were some severe thunderstorm warnings early this morning in addition to the flood threat.

Vermont is prone to flooding. Different parts of the state have been declared federal disaster zones 13 times in the past decade due to flooding.  I have no idea if today's possible flooding will rise to that level.

People outside the storm zone, like in the Champlain Valley, could see a great lightning show off to the east before dawn today.

In the New Hampshire flash flood warning zone, rainfall rates were/are at times one to three inches per hour, certainly enough to produce a flash flood.

The threat from this MCS, and upper level low pressure system will continue through much of the day as this mess slowly heads east.  Additonal showers and storms will form on the western edges of this in Vermont, mostlly east of the Green Mountains today, which could cause more high water problems.

The danger is even higher in New Hampshire and western Maine, since this mass of storms will keep firing up all day as the upper level low slowly moves overhead.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center says the heavy rain and storms will persist and actually expand in  areal coverage going into this afternoon. Already, as of 10 a.m., a few showers had expanded into the central Champlain Valley.

In western Vermont, there likely won't be enough activity to cause flood trouble, but this forecast shows that anything east of the Green Mountains in particular might well be in continued trouble for the rest of the days.

Looking forward, we get a sort of break from the humidity tonight and Wednesday before it returns big time by the weekend.  There will be more threats of showers and storms with locally heavy rain occasionally between now and early next week.

Which probably means some areas of the region that are too dry will stay that way, but areas that are too wet face the risk of more water trouble.

Flash Flood In A Drought? Happens Often, Actually. Even Here In Vermont

Flash flooding in Burlington, Vermont back in 2012. Very localized
flash flooding can occur even during very dry conditions,
if the downpour is torrential enough. 

I've been whining since at least May about how dry it is here in Vermont and surrounding areas.

Despite a bit of recent rain, the southern half of Vermont is in a moderate drought, while the northern half is abnormally dry, not quite a drought, according to the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor. 

So why does the subject of flash flooding keeping popping up during this weather regime?

The reason: Tis the season for local downpours. It's the summer doldrums, when the humidity is highest and scattered thunderstorms often move very slowly, or sometimes not at all.

The best way to end a drought or a dry spell is to get an area wide, steady, soaking rain.  A torrential downpour will mostly just run off.

We've seen that a few times already this summer in Vermont.  The more intense thunderstorm rains can overwhelm the drainage in a particular area pretty quickly.  Plus, if the thunderstorm parks itself over a particular spot for an hour or two instead of moving on as usual, the rain can get pretty extreme.

We saw some flash flooding around Starksboro in late June from a stalled thunderstorm while surrounding towns remained dry.  I spotted some minor flash flooding in downtown St. Albans during last week's thunderstorms.  A flash flood warning went up very early Sunday morning for a small area of the Adirondacks due to a pocket of heavy rains.

You'll get a situation where it  rains so hard and so fast in one town that there's washouts and high water on small streams.  Meanwhile, two towns away, people are watering their dusty, wilting gardens.

The reason I bring all this up today is that, interestingly, the National Weather Service's daily Excessive Rain Outlook puts almost all of Vermont and New Hampshire, northern New York, western Maine and central New England in a slight risk zone for flash flooding over the next 24 hours.

A slight risk zone means there's a 10 to 20 percent chance of rainfall heavy enough to trigger flash flooding within 25 miles of any point within the slight risk zone.

These risk levels are akin to severe thunderstorm risks. Both are a five point scale going from marginal, to slight, to elevated, to moderate to high risk. So Vermont is at level two of a five point scale later today and tonight.

As the slight risk implies, there might well be no flash flooding. Based on current forecasts, there might be a few areas in Vermont that actually get  no rain at all between now and tomorrow.

Most of us will see some showers and storms as an upper level disturbance moves slowly into the region.  Moisture will feed into this from the southeast, forecasters are telling us. Also, an upper level disturbance consists of a pool of colder air aloft, so the temperature contrast will increase between ground level and several thousand feet above of us. That encourages showers to form.

If any locally torrential rains develop at all, I bet any instances of that would be isolated at most. The forward motion of the showers and storms will be slow, which is why there's that slight risk guidance on flash floods.

While the the National Weather Service's  U.S. level guidance has that slight risk of a pocket or two of flash flooding around here, the local office of the National Weather Service in South Burlington is less bullish with the idea.

The local office definitely has showers and a few isolated thunderstorms in the forecast today thruogh Tuesday, there's no mention of torrential rains. The South Burlington office of the NWS in this morning's forecast discussion correctly describes the expected showers as beneficial, as we definitely need the rain.

The bottom line: Most of us should see some rains in the next 24 hours that won't amount to anything too spectacular.  There's a low risk somebody could get unlucky with too much water.

The Stresses Of A Hot, Humid, And Very Iffy Summer Roll On

Part of my St. Albans, Vermont gardens this morning. At the time
they were getting a brief drink of water from a passing
shower, which pleased both me and the flowers. 

Yesterday and today are continuing the humid cat and mouse game with storms drenching just a few people with needed rain while others miss out.

I've been saying the same all summer, I do realize. Call it Rinse (Not) and Repeat.

I managed to collect just over a third of an inch of rain at my St. Albans, Vermont hacienda Saturday, mostly from one rain band associated with former Tropical Storm Fay, plus one brief relatively heavy shower that happened to luckily bullseye my place early Saturday afternoon.

So it helped, but I wanted more. As I write this Sunday morning, I am getting a brief moderate additional rain shower, so that brightens my mood a bit.

Even so, Saturday evening, I watched longingly as a parade of thunderstorms moved northward through the eastern Adirondacks.  The clouds looked thick and rich with rain, rumbles of thunder grumbled in the distance.  But no more rain for me, despite the air you can wear feel from the humidity.

At least I was out enjoying my gardens, right?

It was like this through much of New England and northern New York.  Some pockets got really nailed.

Flash flood warnings were up early today in parts of the central Adirondacks due to a small zone of heavy overnight rain there.  A tornado touched down Saturday afternoon in western Maine, near Sebago Lake. Flood advisories were up for a time near Saratoga, New York Saturday.

Today, the humidity rolls on. The risk of showers, though, is diminishing for the rest of today, but some will still roam around, given the humidity.

More hit and miss kind of stuff will be around on Monday, too.

There is the prospect of a brief break in the humidity later Monday into Wednesday before it gets sticky again.  Tuesday night, Burlington's temperature might actually drop below 60 degrees for the first time since June 25.

I don't know what the record is for the longest stretch we've stayed above 60, but we're already at 16 consecutive days through Saturday. That's an unusually lengthy stretch for such warm nights.

Signs point to a return to sticky warm to hot weather by the end of the week. It's unclear if it's just going to be muggy and warm (highs in the 80s) or downright hot (90s) by next weekend. We'll just have to wait and see.

Most of the nation except for the Pacific Northwest is very hot and in most cases humid,. It's been like that for weeks, and this state of affairs looks like it will continue most of the rest of the month.

As we all know, it's an incredibly stressful summer for most of us, given the unrelenting coronavirus pandemic, economic crisis, racial tensions and failures of leadership.

Hot, humid weather tends to make people more stressed, anxous and angry, so this isn't helping.  The nationwide heat wave is causing droughts to worsen worringly  in some parts of the South and Southwest.

In other parts of the country, the heat and humidity is the spark for destructive storms, bringing pockets of flash flooding, hail, a few tornadoes and the constant drumbeat of storm watches, warnings and advisories. Which doesn't help the moods of most people.

Last evening, after a day at work, I was tense, hot, frustrated and angry, even though I should consider myself lucky I have a job.   My gardens did cool off my temper, if not my body, even as I longed for the rain and thunder I was seeing across Lake Champlain from my house.

The gardens do help, and I'm thankful I have them.

I hope you all have a refuge like I do.  Or are able to create one.  It doesn't have to be a garden, just someplace where you can find peace and forget about everything.

Please find your own refuge from the heat, the storms, and the stress 2020 will forever be known for. You deserve it.