Don't Count On Summer Warmth To Squelch Coronavirus

Coronavirus has spread to most nations (blue shading) and will
continue to envelope the world  Viruses often wane in the
 summer, but don't count on that with th coronavirus. 

As all of us know, the coronavirus pandemic we're enduring is much worse than seasonal flu we get every year.  Many more people will die from this than the regular flu, which is why we are all in a panic.

This virus has some simularities to the flu virus though.  The usual flu the world gets every year tends to wane in the summer, as warm weather seems to hinder its spread.  That begs the question: Will we get a similar warm weather break with the coronavirus?

The answer seems to be: Don't count on it, but maybe. Even if it does wane in the summer, that won't solve our problems.

As National Geographic reports, recent research indicates many viruses are more likely to stay intact and travel further in cold, dry air.  These viruses tend not to spread well in warm, humid air.   Some scientists think that low humidity, - you know the dry indoor air we deal with in the winter - makes mucus in the nose function less efficiently.

That mucus helps block viruses and bacteria from getting into your body, and the cold air might weaken that barrier, National Geographic notes. 

Additionally, summer tends to be sunnier than winter, and viruses usually don't do well in sunshine.

Of course, summer doesn't give complete protection from viruses. People still get sick in the summer.

This conronavirus now torturing us is new, so scientists really don't know whether it will wane in the upcoming warm weather in late spring and summer.  We are totally NOT off the hook, I can tell you that.

The current pandemic is seen around the world, including the Southern Hemisphere, where summer is just ending. (Actor Tom Hanks and his wife Rita Wilson recently announced they have the virus, and they caught it in summertime Australia).

It's unclear if the coronavirus will get worse in the Southern Hemisphere as their winter sets in.  The bottom line is scientists really don't know if the coronavirus will wax and wane with the seasons.  Plus, viruses circulate all year in the hot, humid tropics, so summer isn't exactly a disinfectant.

Dr. Marc Lipsitch, Director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, writes that  "new" viruses like the current coronavirus have an advantage.  Pretty much nobody is immune to it,  unlike "old" viruses that have been circulating for years.

New viruses can jump from host to host, person to person freely, without any interference from warm summer weather.  The new viruses like the one in the current pandemic have plenty of low hanging fruit to seize.

Older viruses, not so much.  Lipsitch writes: "Old viruses, which have been in the population longer, operate on a thinner margin - most individuals are immune, and they have to make do with transmitting among a few who aren't. In simple terms, viruses that have been around for a long time can make a living - spreading through the population - only when the conditions are the most favorable, in this case, in winter."

Even if summer gives us a slight break from the coronavirus,  it could easily come roaring back in the autumn.

Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University researcher on the flu-weather connection thinks that the virus will continue to rapidly expand in the United States and elsewhere through the month of April, and might finally start to decline in late May or June. This, according to a report by Bob Henson in the Category 6 Weather Underground blog. 

It we get lucky and the coronavirus does wane in the summer, that buys us a little time to get a handle on it. But even so, it would probably come roaring back in the autumn, before humanity has had a chance to develop a vaccine and innoculate people around the world.

One ominous precedent, according to Henson in the Category 6 blog, was the great pandemic of 1918. Sporadic cases popped up in March of that year, but seemed to subside.  Then the pandemic roared to life, killing 195,000 Americans in just the span of a month in October, 2018.  The pandemic would go on to kill many more.

Whether or not this coronavirus ends up being a seasonal thing, a lot of scientists say it's here to stay, and will circulate around the globe perhaps forever, always sickening and killing people.  That's why it's so important to develop a vaccine against this thing to limit the damage and prevent the vast majority of the world from continuing to all victim to the disease year after year.

Scientists are working intensely to develop a vaccine, but one that works is more than a year away, likely more than that.

I don't offer this report just because I want to scare people. It's just to tell you we are in this for the long haul.  Keep washing your hands, folks, and keep up the social isolation.

It Wasn't Just Vermont: Nation Had Warm Winter

This, believe it or not, is a weird map. (Click on it to make it bigger
and easier to see).  It shows how each state's overall winter
temperature ranked compared to the coolest and hottest. No
state had a cooler than average winter. Almoat always, there
is at least one region that is cool every season. Not this winter.

As I mentioned several days ago, we in Vermont got a break this year with a mild winter. This, despite a late autumn that was ominously cold, snowy and icy.

It wasn't just us that had that kind of winter.  It started rough in many spots.  Out in Ohio, it turned out that the coldest days of the winter hit before the winter solstice well before Christmas. Since then, it's been toasty, aside from a few "meh" cold spells.

Officially, the Lower 48 had its 6th warmest winter on record, says NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.  Winter here is defined as the period from December 1 through February 29.

Winter in the United States had been on pace to be the warmest on record after a remarkably coast to coast bout of  toastyness in December and January.  However, February was only the 34th warmest out of 126 years of record.  Still among the warmest one-third of Februaries, but not record breaking

That brought this winter's ranking down to sixth place. .

The odd thing about national February temperatures is that almost no part of the nation was cooler than normal, aside from Colorado and Wyoming, which were slightly on the cool side. Alaska did have a significantly colder than normal February, though.

For the winter as a whole, every state except Alaska was warmer than normal.

Usually, even in the warmest winters, or any season for that matter, a few parts of the nation end up being colder than normal.  (In particularly cold months or season, at least a small part of the nation are usually warmer than average). This certainly didn't happen this year.

By my count 25 states- half the nation, had one of the top 10 warmest winters on record. Vermont is included amont those 25 states. The Green Mountain State barely made it, scoring  its 10th warmest winter on record.

The nation as a whole was wetter than normal during February, too. That was mostly led by the Southeast, which had one its wettest Februaries on record.  The contrast was California, which was very dry.  San Francisco had its first rainless February since the Civil War.

Climate figures for February for the entire world are due out in a week or so, which means I'll update you then. It's widely expected February, 2020 will be among the hottest on record.  The first month ofthe year was the world's hottest January on record. 

Mid-February: When You Look For A Sign Winter Is Breaking. And It Has

Tuesday: The deep dark gloom of winter seemed like it would
never go away around my St. Albans, Vermont property

Much has been made about the mild winter across much of the United States, including here in Vermont.

However, here in the northern Vermont, this February has been a truly winter month.  Nothing extreme, mind you, but you know it's winter.  

Temperatures are running a little above normal so far this month, but we have also been making occasional excursions to below zero territory.  Snowfall is running a little above average, too.

Even though a lot of people like winter and want it to continue, I get a little ambivalent about it this time of year. There's certainly beauty in the white winter landscape. Dramatic, cold storms are fun for any weather geek.  Still, one often looks ahead, and so do I, toward spring.

Wednesday:  A chill north wind, but you could feel the warmth of the
February sun battling against winter. Photo was taken at 4:35 p.m.,
which would have been nighttime two months ago. 

Tuesday was dark, gloomy, wintry day in Vermont, I referred the weather then as the dog days of February.

 It was the kind of day when  you feel winter has been going on forever and it will never end. It snowed off and on. It was windy and raw. There was a thick blanket of snow and ice on the ground. It seemed a bit hopeless, frankly.

Wednesday was another day, and another attitude. If only in my imagination, the first crack in winter's grasp appeared to me on Wednesday, even if it was a wintry day by anybody's definition.

Now, I'm not saying winter is over, not by a long shot. Heck, it's going to be below zero tonight. And we will surely have our share of snowstorms, cold snaps, ice and winter chill to come in March and even in April.

But hear me out on what I felt yesterday was the first signs that this albeit tame winter is about to lose its grip.  It came when the snow lost its grip on my roof at 4:30 a.m. Wednesday.

Hopefully, in less than three months, my yard will look like this.

Temperatures rose Tuesday night to near 40 degrees. Enough to cause a little thawing. Just before temperatures starting crashing downward again, a couple hours before dawn,  the foot-thick layer of snow and ice covering our roof let go all at once.

The house roared and shook and swayed as all the snow and ice on both sides of the roof all slid off at once.  It was a wonder to behold, even if I had to shovel the compacted ice away from the front door so we could get outdoors.

During the mid-morning, another Arctic cold front tossed down a handful of snowflakes amid gusty northwest winds. Then the sky cleared.

Earlier in the winter, when the sun was at a weak, low angle, the temperature would have steadily dropped all day behind that cold front.  With the stronger mid-February sun, the temperature held stubbornly in the upper 20s, despite the north winds trying to drive the frigid air in.

The bottom line is, winter and spring battled it out Wednesday afternoon, and that battle ended in a draw, at least until the sun went down and the temperature would plummet.

Before it did so, the better, higher sun angle did one more favor. Our winter of mixed precipitation left a nearly two inch sold layer of ice on our driveway. Michelle Kwan could win another gold metal skating on it.

But the sun wore a small patch of bare pavement near where my truck was parked. The sun warmed the pavement, melting the ice around the bare patch.  I was actually able to expand the bare patch a bit.

With the strongest grasp of winter now broken, it now feels like we are entering the see-saw war between spring and winter.  Already, the subzero readings expected Thursday morning will give way to 40-degree temperatures by Sunday.

True to form, as we go through pretty much the entire month of March, we will see a few more below zero readings.  Just as in 2017 and 2018, it's possible we'll see the biggest snowstorm of the winter this year in March.  That's not a forecast, but who knows? It could happen.

However, the chances of mild, perhaps even sunny days keep increasing. Already, the normal temperature for today in Burlington is four degrees warmer than it was on February 1. Onward and upward!

The sun will keep strengthening, and the days will continue to get blissfully longer. The sun was still blasting down nicely at 4:30 p.m. Wednesday.  In December, it would already have been dark.

The battle for spring will be won several weeks from now, and maybe I'll fulfill my winter long fantasy of getting back in the garden, smelling the gorgeous organic aroma of mud and new blooms, and seeing the landscape turn to that delicious spring green.

I'll need to be patient with this, but bring it on!


i

Two Cool Videos To Enjoy Even If You're Tired Of Snow

A very rare snowball fight in Baghdad, Iraq this week. The city was hit
by its first snowfall since 2008 and its most substantial
one since 1914. 

It hasn't exactly been the most extreme winter here in Vermont, but I understand if a few of you are already sick of snow and wintry conditions now that we've reached mid-February.

But still, let's face it. Snow can be really awesome.  Just refer back to earlier this month, after that big snowstorm and the skies cleared. All that fresh snow and a full moon and whitened mountains. So fresh! So clean! What's to complain about?

Maybe chopping at the ice from all the mixed precipitation we've had, and the hard packed ice that's now on my truck and driveway from when a foot of compacted snow slid off my roof last night.  But that's just one negative amid the positives o\f winter.

Elsewhere in the world, snow can be awesome, too. I have a couple recent viral videos to prove my point.

The first video is my favorite of the two.  It shows a snow squall a snow squall coming ashore along the Black Sea in the Artvin province of Turkey.

It's not the least bit unusual to see snow in the winter in this part of Turkey, but this incoming snow squall is just amazing. It looks like a solid wall. Watch:



The second video show snow in a place where such precipitation is definitely more unusual.

It snowed in Baghdad, Iraq last week for the first time in over a decade. The last time it snowed there, in 2008, it was a slushy mess that really didn't stick.  This week's snow in Baghdad was the first snowfall there that actually stuck and stayed for awhile since 1914, says USA Today. 

This time of year, Baghdad's normal high temperature is in the mid-60s and overnight temperatures dip into the low 40s. So yeah, this was odd.

The snow gave Baghdad some welcome comic relief from the incessant unrest and violence there.

In Baghdad's Tahir Square, usually a hotbed of demontrations, young men and women threw snowballs at each other, says USA Today.  Politics couldn't totally escape, as people drew anti-government slogans in the snow.

I really love this artistically done video of the snow in Baghdad this week. I hope you do, too:

Hilarious: Outdoors In A Minnesota Winter

Man loses enthusiasm while outdoors in Minnesota winter

Across the nation, it really hasn't been that cold of  winter.

In Minnesota, though, not that cold can still be pretty frigid at times.

Which leads me to this wonderful video, as you can see at the bottom of this post.

In the video, a rather hairy, bearded guy goes outside in Minnesota. He has a wonderful Minnesota accent, doncha know, which make the video so much better.

The guy who gives us this joy is Jake Fischer, 27. The temperature was about 15 below when the video was made.

He starts out happy and enthusiastic, but watch that enthusiasm wither as he withstands minutes, then hours outside as ice builds up on him. Dude starts out happy enough, but after two hours, he's one.

Any of us Vermonters who have survived past tough winters can relate.

Watch and get a chuckle:

Vermont Air: A Hazy Shade Of Winter Indeed

Hazy shade of winter indeed. A temperature inversion gave us this
murky view of St. Albans, Vermont Saturday. The bluish
greyish tint to the fog suggests some pollution mixed in. 

Saturday in Vermont, the atmosphere had an interesting look to it.  It wasn't necessarily a healthy look, either.

It was murky and foggy, but the fog had a blue and gray slate colored tint to it. It's as if somebody added a bit of steel blue food coloring to the atmosphere. The atmosphere totally had me humming   that old song, "Hazy Shade of Winter," that old Simon and Garfunkle song released in 1966. You might remember it as the 1980s version by the Bangles.

Anyway, the hazy, foggy air was a sign there has been a bit of air pollution in this weekend's murk.

By this morning, air quality in the Champlain Valley had become unhealthy for sensitive groups, according to data from the Vermont Department of Enviromental Conservation. That means people like the elderly, patients with heart and lung problems, and that type of thing should probably avoid prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors.  

This relatively bad air also covered a large portion of Quebec, including the Montreal metro area as of Sunday morning.

Elsewhere, through most of Vermont, western and southern New England and New York, the air quality was "moderate."  That means it's not necessarily unhealthy, but it's not super great, either. The situation has not gotten bad enough for anyone to issue any air quality alerts.

The wind has been pretty calm over the past few days, which is uncharacteristically of winter, Under these conditions, inversions find it easy to form, and that's what we've had on our hands for the past few days.

A regional air quality map from Sunday morning. Orange shading is
air that's unhealthy for senstive people. Yellow is not hazardous, really,
but there is some pollution in the air. . 

Inversions are when there's a layer of warmer air above the surface, with somewhat chillier air near the ground.  That layer acts as a lid, trapping clouds, moisture and pollution near the surface. We've had this type of weather pattern in Vermont often this winter.  More so than usual.

The inversion began when the air was more clear late last week.  Now, it's dank and cloudy and foggy and hazy.  Occasionally, the sun might poke through, but it will remain hazy.

Most of this stuff in the atmosphere is just harmless moisture trapped under the inversion. But as noted, there's a bit of pollution mixed in, mostly particulates. These are teeny, tiny particles and bits come from the exhaust of cars, trucks, wood and pellet stoves and whatever else people are burning out there.

Under extreme conditions, these wintertime inversions can get very dangerous in terms of pollution, though I want to very strongly emphasize this sort of meh air over Vermont now is not and will NOT become especially dangerous.

But there have been instances, especially in the days before the 1963 federal Clean Air Act when air pollution was far worse.

For instance, in the autumn of 1948, an inversion formed over Donora, Pennsylvania.  Emissions from a huge steel mill in the area causd a choking smog in Donora that killed 19 people and sickened hundreds, if not thousands.

Luckily, there's no threat of that happening.  See, environmental laws DO make a difference!

It looks as if it will remain murky in and around Vermont through Monday, and maybe into Tuesday.  I don't think the relatively limited amount of pollution will get worse, as the air is at least stirring some, and bouts of light precipitation falling through this air gunk can help.

By Wednesday, the wind will pick up a bit, and the air coming into northern New England will have originated from the rather pristine environment around James Bay, Canada. Storminess later in the week will help ensure the air quality remains good, as the winds and precipitation from storms disperses accumulated yuckiness in the air.

Stupid People Who Drive With Snow On Windshield

The driver of this car caused a collision in Montreal.
Hmm. Wonder why?

One day about a week ago, I was driving along after one of Vermont's frequent bouts with mixed precipitation this winter.

I had been unable to scrape the frozen snow off the roof of my truck before I left home. It was really stuck on there. In hindsight, I probably should have tried harder to get that stuff off the truck roof.

By the time I got to Winooski, the snow and ice had started to melt. I stopped at a light on a downward sloping hill and all that snow and ice came down on the windshield.  It was too much for the windshield wipers to handle.  

So, I did what I thought everyone else would have done: I put on my hazard lights, pulled over to the side of the street, got out of the truck and cleaned all the ice of my windshield, then continued on my way.

Apparently, not everybody does that. For proof, check out two of the videos below, and a third from a person who definitely was from Canada, let me tell ya.

 I have seen lots of people driving around with snow on windshields, back windows, you name it. Clean the damn snow off so you don't crash into me and others, you morons!

 The Weather Channel just featured somebody causing a crash because they had an experience similar to me:  Snow had fallen on their windshield, but in their case, they kept going.

Here's that video. I hope the person who caused the crash feels like a real idiot:



And check out this video from last winter in Toronto:



Now, here's a video of somebody who DID make the effort to remove snow from the windshield.  This was in Vancouver, Canada, and he used a very Canadian way to do the job. Look what he's using to get the snow off the car:

Calm Winter Weather Causing Air Pollution Issues In Vermont

The lovely city of Rutland, Vermont is in a bowl-shaped valley,
which makes it prone to inversion-caused air pollution problems
in the winter. Other Vermont valleys are similary at risk.

It's a very calm week, weather wise in Vermont. Most of us, including me, enjoy this.

Temperatures are moderate, there's no precipitation, and you want to get outside. It's really perfect winter weather.

Or is it?

When it's this calm, inversions often set up in the winter. That's when there's a warmer layer of air aloft which acts as a lid. That keeps pollutants from blowing away. Instead, soot, particulates or whatever accumulate in the air, especially in valleys.

This usually isn't such a problem in the summer. At that time of year, the sun is strong. The sunshine blasts onto the surface of the Earth, including in Vermont valleys. That leads to updrafts, which basically mixes the air, breaks up inversions and dilutes pollution. A lot of that pollution gets caught up in winds aloft, and blows away. Good riddance.

In the winter, the sun is much weaker. There's no blasting of heat to cause updrafts. So the warm air stays in place aloft.  And down in our Vermont valleys our wood stoves, our pellet stoves, our cars and whatever else belches into the air. And it has nowhere to go.

Which is why the National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issued an air quality alert for Rutland County until 11 p.m. Friday.

The area around Rutland is notorious for this in the winter. Rutland City, and surrounding towns, are essentially at the bottom of a bowl, surrounded by mountains. So, when there's an inversion, exhaust from all our stuff goes into the air, that pollution just sits there, which everyone around Rutland gets to breathe.

Oh joy!

This pollution is mainly in the form of particulates. These particulates are usually tiny bits of soot. When we breathe that soot, the particulates go into the tiniest passages of our lungs, where they can get stuck.

The level of pollution in valleys like those in Rutland County probably won't majorly hurt young whippersnappers and generally healthy people.  By the way, this problem isn't limited to Rutland County through Friday.

As the National Weather Service notes, other populated Vermont valleys, like in the Barre-Montpelier area, parts of the Connecticut River valley and other areas of Vermont surrounded by mountains, the air isn't going to be so great through Friday

But for people who have health problems, especially those with lung disease, have cardiopulmonary problems or are elderly should stay indoors. For instance, my mother, age 90, has COPD and lives in West Rutland. She needs to stay indoors until this problem goes away.

This problem will go away on Saturday. Some storminess is coming in, which would tend to increase winds and disperse the particulate pollution.

Vermont has a pretty well deserved reputation as being environmentally friendly. But we're far from perfect, and we are completely capable of sinking into air pollution problems.

Another Weekend, Another Tricky Vermont Storm Due

One depiction of the expected storm system this weekend
has it well inland over central New England. That would
give us a warmer storm, with an increased chance of
mixed precipitation rather than snow.

I'll take an initial crack at the next storm coming along to Vermont. True to form this winter, it's coming on a weekend. And, true to form, what will actually come from the sky is questionable.

As of this Thursday morning, it's too soon to really go into specifics.  This post will just be broadbrush.  I do know there's been a major trend northward in the computer models all week.

Back on Sunday and Monday, it appeared to me this next system would go by so far to the south that only southern Vermont had a shot of precipitation.

Now, the models are so far north that a mix or rain is in play. (The further north a storm goes, the more likely it will be warm enough for a changeover).

Like the last two systems, this won't be a blockbuster for us, no matter what type of precipitation falls. Early indications are most places would get a quarter to a half inch of rain or melted snow and ice. That's very similar to the last two storms, basically a mid-sized kind of thing.

Those two storms were all snow, so now we have a respectable, but not spectacular snow cover on the ground.  It's still early, so I don't know how much damage, if any, this next storm will do to that snow cover. In fact, some areas might get end up with a better snow pack than now, who knows?

The overall storm set up will be familiar to those watching how this winter has been going. One storm will head up toward the Great Lakes and a new one will get going somewhere near the Mid-Atlantic states or East Coast.

The latest predictions have this secondary storm taking an inland route through the Northeast. That would bring milder air north, which is what is making everybody question what type of precipitation will come down.

Jackson the Weather Dog sniffing out snow prospects for the next
storm in Vermont, due this weekend. 

On top of that, there's not a lot of cold air to our north in Quebec to feed into the system.

Any snow we get with this is most likely near the onset of precipitation Saturday, and near the end of this on Sunday, as somewhat colder air moves in behind the storm.

Obviously, there's still a lot of questions with this storm. If the trends keep bringing it north, this thing will be mostly rain.  If the forecast trends reverse themselves, a more southerly track would keep most of Vermont in the snow.

Because of the lack of cold air to feed into this system, any snow we do get will probably be wet and heavy.

After the storm, it will only be seasonably cold, or even a little milder than average for this time of year early next week.  If you want a brutal blast of frigid Arctic air, it's not coming within the next week or so that's for sure.

After A Long Break, Winter Returning To Vermont, Rest Of Northeast

Weather dog Jackson inspects the bits of ice and snow that have
fallen on our St. Albans, Vermont property since Sunday.
More snow and colder weather is in the forecast. 

Our long hiatus from winter is just about over here in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast.

Yes, yes, I know winter returned with the ice in far northern sections on Sunday, but it's still mild. That won't last too long.

First, a quick review of this odd season.

It really has been a strange winter so far. It came in very early and very strong, with record cold temperatures and heavy snows starting in before mid-November.

The cold continued well into mid-December, making people think this would be one of the longest, coldest winters in memory.

Then the official start of winter - at least astronomical winter - arrived on December 21, and winter weather took a hiatus.

In Burlington, Vermont, only three days since since December 22 have failed to get above freezing.  So far, temperatures this month in Burlington are running a good ten degrees above normal.

There was only 18 inches of snow atop Mount Mansfield, Vermont as of yesterday. Normally at this date, there's about 42 inches of snow at that mountain snow stake. At this point last year, there was 64 inches of snow on the ground atop Mount Mansfield.

Then, to cap it off, we had that springlike record warmth Saturday, and on Sunday in southern New England.

True, we had more than our share of ice and sleet and schmutz here in New England since December 22, but you have to admit it's been darn warm!

The warm weather and the relative lack of snow is about to end. Normal winter cold and snow looks like it will make a grand return for pretty much the rest of the month.

Today and tomorrow in Vermont will be relatively mild, with highs in the 30s, and very warm (at least for January) overnight lows in the 20s.

But our unfriendly bugaboo freezing drizzle, which we had yesterday, a little bit today and a little bit more tonight, will linger. But we've had a bit of snow, too over the past 24 hours in Vermont.

That's the start of a process of rebuilding our lost snowpack. A little snow will come tonight along with that freezing drizzle, which will bring an inch or two of accumulation to much of the area.

A slightly stronger system Wednesday night will bring most Vermonters another two or three inches of snow, with higher amounts near six inches in some of the mountain ski areas of central and northern Vermont.

Then it turns cold later Thursday and Friday, with temperatures getting down to around zero at night and only making it into the teens at best in the afternoon.

Forecasters are also watching a potential storm for this weekend. It at least has the potential to bring us several more inches of snow, perhaps a decent dump. We'll see. Then it'll turn cold again after that storm

This forecasted wintry weather is pretty typical for Vermont in January. But it's definitely a change from what we've gotten used to over the past few weeks.

Ice Storms That Aren't Destructive Are Actually Pretty Cool

Icy berries in my St. Albans, Vermont yard on Sunday.

Now that we know the northwestern Vermont ice storm of 2020 was not as bad as feared, we can actually enjoy the beauty and oddities that freezing rain brings.

Oh sure, some people lost power for a little while, a few people have damaged trees, and the roads weren't all that great in the immediate aftermath of the ice.

But given we avoided wholesale destruction (at least in Vermont) of the Great Ice Storm of 1998, it was good to go out and actually enjoy the ice-altered scenery.

Since temperatures will probably stay below freezing, probably until Tuesday, and there should be a little sunshine here and there to light up the ice, there will probably be more photogenic moments with the ice still covering everything.

An icy bramch in my St. Albans, Vermont yard on Sunday.

Some of the photos that I took for this post are pretty. Some just journalistically document what the ice did.

Either way, it was still good to get out and examine what icy artistry Mother Nature gave us.  When you see this post, definitely respond with your own photos of what you saw in the ice. I'd love to see it.

I"m not a big fan of winter. It's my fourth favorite season, to be honest. Plus, most of Vermont missed out on the ice, so the great majority of Vermonters missed out on the beauty of the ice. But that's OK, there will be other days, with snow, with sun, with ice, with frost, that will highlight Vermont's beauty

Just be ready with your cameras, folks!

Scroll down and click on all the photos in this photos in this post to make the bigger and easier to see.

Birch trees bend under the weight of ice  left by this weekend's
freezing rain in Alburgh, Vermont. 

Ice laden birch trees sag under the weight of ice Sunday in
Alburgh, Vermont, blocking this driveway. 

A jumble of branches and ice on this St. Albans, Vermont shrub.

A tree sags under the ice in Alburgh, Vermont Sunday, while in a background
you can see part of another tree snapped off because of the
weight of the ice. 

An appropriately named street in Alburgh, Vermont Sunday.

An icy white pine branch in St. Albans, Vermont Sunday. 

Back To Vermont Snows Any Minute Now On This Saturday

Here's the snow forecast map we always display from the National
Weather Service in South Burlington when snow is in the forecast.
Dark blue areas should get 3-5 inches of new snow. 

For the first time in this relatively young winter season, the total snowfall for the winter so far in Burlington slipped to a bit below normal yesterday.

So far since the flakes started flying in November, 25.4 inches of snow had fallen in Burlington as of last night. That's 0.4 inches below normal for the date.

Snow cover is thin in the valleys, too, which probably frustrates places like cross country ski centers.

It still looks like snowfall will go back to a little above normal for the season as a light to moderate snow is still coming, starting any minute now on this Saturday, if it hasn't started yet where you are.

It was still warm early this morning, and precipitation was starting as rain in southern Vermont. The southern half of the state will see a fair amount of rain or a rain/snow mix for the first several hours of this storm, so that will cut down on accumulations there.

In the north, some areas, especially the Champlain Valley, might see some rain or mix at the start, but it will go quickly to a wet snow.

Now, wet snow is more slippery than powder, so that will have an effect on road conditions this afternoon and evening. That's why a winter weather advisory is up for the northern half of Vermont until early Sunday morning.    

Early January snow cover was very thin in my St. Albans, Vermont yard
this morning, but an expected three or four inch snowfall this
weekend should at least partly fix that. 

As we go into tonight and tomorrow morning, the wet snow will turn into more powdery flakes as the temperatures continue to go down.

When you shovel out tomorrow morning, you'll find a nice light powder on top and heavy wet cement type stuff underneath to clear, which of course is unpleasant.

In general, the National Weather Service is going for one to two inches of new snow south of Route 4; two to four inches roughly between Route 4 and Route 2; and three to five inches north of Route 2.

Of course, mountain areas (Read: Ski areas) will get a little more than that.  The flakes will fly pretty much most of the day in many of the mountains, but taper off to basically nothing additional during the day Sunday.

To add to the snowpack, light snow is likely Monday, and we have a shot at another moderate snowfall on Wednesday.  After that, with this active and relatively warm for winter pattern going, it's unclear if the next storm in the series coming along next Friday and Saturday will be rain, snow, or a mix.

New Year's Eve Road Alert, And New England's Weirdest Winter Storm

National Weather Service map from Monday afternoon shows a bizarre
combinayion of a ice storm warnings (in purple) and a severe thunderstorm
warning (in orange).  Usually these two warnings are in different
seasons, not together on the same day/

Hi, I'm back after a one day hiatus in which I was traveling from the blizzardy snows of South Dakota toward the very weird storminess over New England on Monday.

And what a strange storm it was!  I don't see anything the record books in which a nasty winter storm of snow, freezing rain, sleet and wind combined simultaneously with severe thunderstorms with damaging hail.

That was the situation in New England yesterday, folks!  There's a couple videos at the bottom of this post.

I'll get into more of that in a minute, but first, we're not even quite done with the storm yet.

This thing was a sprawling mess which kept sprouting new centers and new bouts of rough weather from California to Maine.

The last of these storms is near Downeast Maine, and is dumping heavy snow on the northern and western parts of that state.

It's a remnant piece of a previous part of this storm that we Vermonters have to worry about today and tonight.  In case you haven't noticed, it's pretty mild out there this New Year's Eve.

In many, but not all Vermont valley locations, yesterday's ice is melting off the trees. That's a good thing, as you don't want to have the branches weighed down by the ice and risk more tree and power line damage.

One reason it's mild out is there is a cold front of sorts attached to that remnant piece of the storm near the eastern Great Lakes.

This sort of cold front has a lot of energy with it.  There was even more lightning to report this morning in Ohio.  This front will generate some heavy snow showers as it approaches tonight.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says the timing suggests that the heavier snow showers will come through northern New York between 4 and 8 p.m. today. They'll get into the Champlain Valley between about 7 and 10 p.m. and into the eastern half of Vermont between 9 p.m. and midnight.

This obviously means trouble for people out partying for New Year's Eve. A quick one to three inches of snow, combined with some wind, will sharply reduce the visibility on the roads, and get them slippery fast.

Probably more important is the temperature. When temperatures are near the freezing mark in this snow squally situation, it's a lot worse on the roads than if readings were far below 32 degrees. In very cold weather, a lot of the snow just blows off the roads. It does compact into some ice, but it's not too, too bad when it's super cold.

However, when the temperature is warmish, like today and this evening, water on the road freezes as the temperatures fall during the onset of the snow.  The snow will be relatively wet. Wet snow compacts into thick layers of slippery ice beneath car tires. There will still be a little water on top of all this mess, which makes things even more slick.

Arrived home from a trip to find the trees in my St. Albans, Vermont\
yard were mercifully not too weighed down by ice from Monday's storm.

Combine this with drunk drivers on New Year's Eve and you have a real mess on your hand. I get it that I'm being a New Year's Eve Debbie Downer with this news. But it's all in an effort to help you plan ahead.  

Or stay home. That's what me and my husband Jeff do every New Year's Eve.  Tonight is amateur hour. It's more fun to sip Champagne at home.

In any event, this snow tonight is good news for the ski areas. It'll be kinda powdery up there. Groomers can mix this in with the slop from yesterday, leaving the slopes in pretty good shape for welcoming 2020 with some skiing and riding

MONDAY'S WEIRDNESS

Monday wasn't the first time there's been lightning and thunder during a New England ice storm.  But these were definitely the strongest storms I and anyone else has seen with an ice storm.   For those of you in northern and central Vermont who wonder what I'm talking about, the thundersleet storms passed well south of you.

A New England ice storm is often a recipe for some thunder.  Usually, an ice storm features a very strong punch of very warm air from the south coming into New England several thousand feet overhead.

Meanwhile, low level cold air drains in from Quebec. Rain from the overhead warm air freezes on the way down to form sleet, or freezes on contact with the ground to accumulate some dangerous ice. This is exactly the situation New England faced on Monday.

This warm air above can be quite unstable and create elevated thunderstorms that form above the temperature inversion that is keeping the cold air locked in at the surface. For instance, there were thunderstorms in Vermont during the Great Ice Storm of 1998.

On Monday, the storms turned out to be quite strong, and formed into a system we normally and often see during severe thunderstorm outbreaks in the summer.

One thunderstorm formed ahead of the main line of storms and went through western and central Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut.  This storm very much resembled a supercell thunderstorms, the kind that can produce large hail and even tornadoes.

Supercells usually form ahead of the main band of storms that form along a squall line or ahead of a cold front. That's how Monday's initial storm behaved. It probably was technically a supercell, since it was rotating and had a radar presentation that resembled a supercell.

Because the storm was elevated above the cold layer near the surface, it would have never been able to spin down a tornado toward the ground. (The rotation with this storm was insufficient to produce a tornado even if that low level cold air wasn't around.)

However, supercells and that type of storm that formed Monday in central New England can produce large hail and this one certainly did. Rising and falling air currents in the storm grabbed raindrops and sleet pellets and formed large hail stones.

Some of the hail stones were an inch or more in diameter, as big or bigger than quarters and enough to dent vehicles. Certainly, these were the biggest hailstones on record for December in New England.

The main line of thunderstorms came through later, dumping more hail, and triggering more lightning and thunder across much of southern and central New England. Some of storms extended into southern Vermont.

On top of all this, the freezing rain was bringing down trees and power lines in the Adirondacks, southern Vermont and New Hampshire and much of Massachusetts.

Most, but not all of the power is back on in New England and New York as of early this afternoon.

Videos:

Security cameras caught the noisy thundersleet and large hail in Westfield, Massachusettts. And also the reaction from a stunned occupant of the building:



The freezing rain affected Ontario, Canada, too, as this enthusiastic motorist tells and shows us:

Christmas Is Over. So Is Quiet Weather. Brace For The Usual Winter Storms

Forecast weather map for Sunday. A big winter storm will
spread tricky weather through much of the nation. You
can see the storm's size envelops much of the nationl 

The rather odd quiet weather pattern for most of us across the nation over Christmas is about to end.

It's back to the usual winter slog of wind, snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, thunder and other hazards that can drive one crazy with either dread or delight, depending upon your perspective.

Things were so nice on Christmas Day that there were at least a couple dozen record highs in some parts of the Midwest, and Tennessee and Ohio valleys.  

Now, however, attention turns to the next storm, which will actually affect most of the nation. It's going to be one of those big, windy lumbering affairs that starts off in California and heads northeast toward the Great Lakes.

This type of storm and storm track is the kind that gives everybody some sort of inclement weather.

Things started in the Southwest Christmas and Christmas night with heavy rain and local flooding in southern California. There was even a brief tornado warning around Santa Barbara, California, though I'm not aware of anything touching down.

As is the case with most storms like this, this system will spend today and most of Friday getting its act together over the Southwest and southern Rockies, then it will plow northeastward.

By later Friday night, snow and mixed precipitation will blossom northward through the Plains states. There's already a winter storm watch out for parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado and New Mexico, and I'm sure that watch and other advisories will soon expand into neighboring states like the Dakotas, parts of Iowa and Minnesota.

Where I'm staying in Yankton, South Dakota for the holidays, not too far from the border with Iowa, there's a good chance this storm will dump quite a bit of freezing rain.  In fact, there will be a band of ice with this thing probably all the way from Nebraska, through parts of the Great Lakes and eventually into northern New England on Monday.

(More on Vermont impacts further down).

Early indications are that heavy snow and near blizzard conditions could develop in the colder air from the western half of Nebraska, into central and western South Dakota, the eastern half of North Dakota and a good chunk of Minnesota.

The storm will be strong, so whatever falls from the sky will produce a lot of wind through the Plains and Great Lakes.

Severe thunderstorms and sometimes tornadoes occur with this type of storm in the warm air well south and east of the storm center.

That looks like that might be the case with this storm in the lower Mississippi Valley, but early indications are this won't be an incredibly widespread severe outbreak.

VERMONT IMPACTS

The Green Mountain State is in for two bouts of mixed precipitation.

The first one is coming through during the first half of Friday.  A weak storm system will swing a warm front our way. There won't be much freezing rain Friday morning, but a little bit goes a long way. Expect slippery roads in most of Vermont for the morning commute, which is why there's a winter weather advisory up for the early monring hours.

The storm from the Plains will affect us in New England on Monday.  It's still hard to say how much of what will come out of the sky.  The storm's warm front will try to bring some mild air in, but cool high pressure from Quebec will insist on at least trying to keep us below freezing.

This sounds like a recipe for mixed precipitation and more ice late Sunday and Monday, so we'll have to keep an eye on it. More details to follow.

Odd Quiet Weather Pattern This Week Producing Fog, Pollution

Aftermath of a pileup on Interstate 64 in Virginia this morning.
Fog lifted after the crash. But dense fog and ice contributed
to this crash. 

The eastern two-thirds of the United States is still oddly quiet in the weather department.

Great for travel, but not so great for air quality. Or the production of fog.

The storminess we usually see this time of year mixes the air. Strong winds dissipate and blow away any emissions we produce and most of the fog that tries to form in moist air.

But high pressure is dominating this week, so the air is relatively still. When high pressure, fair weather systems dominate in the summer, you can get pollution problems too. But the strong sun of summer mixes the air, so that helps dissipate fog and pollution.

Around now, the winter solstice, the sun is weak, of course. So you don't get the updrafts caused by the sun's heating, and the air doesn't mix. In fact, an inversion often forms, in which the air above is warmer than the air at the surface. That locks in the air, not allowing fog and pollution to escape.

That's why it's hazy from the Plains through the Midwest to the East Coast this weekend. I noticed this while flying from Burlington, Vermont to Sioux Falls, South Dakota on Saturday. During a stopover in Chicago, it was actually kind of smoggy.

As my plane took off from O'Hare, you can see a brown smudge enveloping the air over the Windy City, which was anything but windy on Saturday.

Some places are worse than others. There's an air quality alert in southwestern New Hampshire, as air pollution is accumulating in low elevations there.

Elswhere, dense fog advisories were up for large parts of the central Plains this morning. Where I am this morning in Yankton, South Dakota, the sun is out, but you can see haze accumulating in the atmosphere.

Sometimes, this situation can get dangerous. Fog can get thick, and in the winter, the moisture from the fog can ice up bridges and highways. Motorists start sliding on the ice, and can't see each other in the dense fog.

Such was the case early this morning in Virginia. Dense fog and ice contributed to a 45-car pileup on I-64  and many people are injured, according to Virgina State Police.

Weather conditions will slowly begin to get more active on and after Christmas, so the haze and fog will start to decline, only to be replaced by our usual winter hazards of snow and ice, at least in some parts of the country.

Earliest Sunset Of The Season Starts Today. Not Even The Winter Solstice Yet, Here's Why

The winter solstice in Vermont last year, on Decembe 21, 2018 was typically
dark and gloomy in Vermont. This is a view of the Winooski River
in Burlington, Vermont's Intervale. 

Today in Burlington, Vermont, the sun will set at 4:13 p.m.  The sun will set at that time each day through December 14.

These are the earliest sunsets of the year.

Which seems not to make complete sense.  The winter solstice doesnn't hit until  December 21 this year.  On that date in Burlington, the sun will set at 4:16 p.m., three minutes later than it will this afternoon.

So why is sunset coming three minutes later than it does today, when December 21 is supposedly the shortest day of the year? Why is this happening?

It's complicated, but I'll give it a shot here. This is not meteorology, my forte, but astronomy. But later in this post, I'll get into some weather too, since this is, um a weather and climate blog.

We regard a day as lasting 24 hours.  But that's not exactly true, depending upon the time of year. According to timeanddate.com:

"The length of a solar day, as this duration is called, is not exactly 24 hours long. It varies throughout the year because of the ellpitial shape of Earth's orbit and it's axial tilt. It is longer than 24 hours around the summer and winter solstices, and shorter than 24 hours aroud the spring and fall equinoxes.

"On most days, solar noon does not occur at the same time as noon on your watch. Around the solstices, solar noon occurs a few minutes later than the previous day. For example, on December 21, 2019, - the day of the Northern Hemisphere winter solstice - solar noon in New York will be at 11:53 a.m. On January 4, 2020 the day of the latest sunrise solar noon will take place six minutes later, at 12  noon.

As solar noons increasingly occur later, sunrises and sunsets also steadily occur later each day after the winter solstice. This is why a location's earliest sunset occurs before, and the latest sunrise occurs after the winter solstice."

This state of affairs is true throughout the northern hemisphere. In Burlington, Vermont, even as the sun starts to set later in the day around the winter solstice, sunrises keep occuring later.  The latest sunrises of the season in Burlington ar at 7:29 a.m. All those late sunrises come between December 28 and January 8, after the winter solstice.

Despite coming after the shortest day of the year, January is typically
colder than at the winter solstice. On the bright side, it's a bit
sunnier in January and February than it was in December. It was
 below zero on a sunny  late afternoon in Janaury, 2018 when I
took this photo of Mount Mansfield, Vermont. 

Now for the meteorology.

As most winter weary Vermonters know, the coldest weather of the winter usually doesn't happen around the solstice on December 21, but later in the winter when we get well into January.

If the northern hemisphere has the least sun on December 21, shouldn't that be be the coldest time of year?  

Um, no.

The atmosphere changes slowly with the seasons and there's a lag time of about four to six week until temperatures bottom out.  Of course you can get the worst cold wave of the year around Christmas, but usually it waits until January or early February.

Sunlight, though increasing, is still relatively puny going through January. Meanwhile, it takes the land and especially the oceans to release heat that was built up last summer.  The land and oceans are still releasing heat from months ago in late December.  With more of that heat gone by January and early February, it will be colder then. In general, anyway.

Usually, but not always, in mid to late February, you begin to notice winter's sting is beginning to fade. That's because by then, the increasing sun angle is beginning to overpower the heat being released from land and oceans. The northern hemisphere begins to soak in the sun's rays, and we begin the climb into spring.

By the way, the same kind of stuff happens in the summer. The latest sunset of the year is not on the summer solstice, and the worst heat of summer comes in July and early August.

One other thing you'll notice in Vermont.  November and December are made darker by incessant cloud cover.  It's the cloudiest time of the year. That's partly because the Great Lakes, lakes in Canada and parts of Hudson Bay aren't frozen yet.

Moisture from these bodies of water rises into the cold air and quickly condenses into clouds, which then move overhead in the Green Mountain State.

In January and February, it's a little sunnier. Sure, we still get a lot of clouds from frequent passing storms. But the bodies of water to our north and west are getting more and more ice covered by then.  There's less open water to release moisture ot the skies, which means less cloudiness to darken our weekend ski trips.

Winter Update And a Strange Norwegian Guy Embraces Winter, With The Help Of Vodka

As this projected weather map shows, two very strong
storms on Wednesday will disrupt Thanksgiving
travel across much of the United States.

Yesterday's storm in Vermont, as expected, pulled a few surprises.  Central Vermont, as expected, got two to four inches of wet snow, sleet and slush.

However, the light snow and rain that forecasters thought would develop in the Champlain Valley never materialized.

From Burlington north, it was a dark, gloomy Sunday with a heavy, thick overcast, but no precipitation fell. (It gave me a chance to do a little work outdoors, which was nice.)

That storm's gone, but it looks like Thanksgiving week travel is going to be a challenge for much of the United States.

The first storm will travel from the central Rockies, through the middle of the Plains and into the Great Lakes Wednesday.  This will lay down a stripe of heavy snow from Denver to Minneapolis to the northwestern Great Lakes Tuesday through Wednesday. That will cause a lot of problems and flight delays for sure.

Here in Vermont, that storm will give us a slug of of rain Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by mostly light snow, gusty winds and cold weather on Thanksgiving.

Meanwhile a beast of a storm is due to crash ashore in Oregon Tuesday night with its own package of strong winds, snow and rain on the West Coast.  The storm will reorganize over the southern Rockies and then emerge over the Plains late in the week, so the trip home from wherever your going will be a challenge, too.   It looks like that one will be a big, disruptive coast-to-coast storm.

No rest of the weary.

So, with that in mind, I found this odd little video from a guy in Norway who is a bit enthusiastic about the onset of winter. Certainly more than me.

Clad only in black underwear, he cleans off his car, drives to a frozen bath tub, cuts up the ice with a chain saw and relaxes in that icy tub.  It's apparent that copious amounts of vodka are helping with this. And for some reason he's got a little doll to help him out with this adventure.

In other words, DON'T try this at home.  But the video is oddly entertaining nevertheless. Watch:

Record Winter Weather Persisting In Vermont; Wintry Week Ahead, Too

As can be seen with this map (click on it to make it bigger and easier to
see) ice accumulations with the upcoming storm look like they
will be around a tenth of an inch. That's not enough to bring down
trees and power lines, but more than enough to make road
conditions dangerous. Map is from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington, Vermont. 

It seems like winter has gone on forever already, even though it's only mid-November and our early siege of mid-winter type weather has only gone on for about a week to ten days.

As expected, the cold intensified overnight, with low temperatures tying and setting records, and falling to levels that would be considered chiller than normal for mid-January.

Quite a few places across Vermont managed to get below zero last night, which really is something for this time of year. Island Pond bottomed out at a remarkable 11 below, and Averill was close at 9 below.

In the tropical part of Vermont, Burlington tied its record low for the date at 7 degrees above zero. St. Johnsbury had a record low of 1 below.

Temperatures are moderating under sunshine as we get into Sunday afternoon, but it's still a lot colder than normal.  As mentioned yesterday, we are also in for much more ugly winter weather to come.

We are still due for freezing rain, sleet and finishing off with snow Monday afternoon, night and Tuesday. As is always the case with these situations, some places might be marginal between the rain and ice line, but count on slippery roads and sidewalks starting by Monday afternoon at the latest.

The drive home Monday evening will be lousy, and so will the trip into work Tuesday morning. The precipitation is not going to be especially heavy, but a little bit of ice goes a long way toward making life miserable.

It's also unclear at what pace Monday night and Tuesday morning we'll transition from freezing rain to sleet to snow, but I guess most places in Vermont can expect at least one to three inches of snow and ice, with locally higher amounts.

Unsettled weather will continue pretty much all of this coming week, with rain and snow showers around.  It will stay about ten degrees colder than normal during the week, but I suppose that's better than the 20 to 30 degree below normal air we've had over the past couple of days

It's hard to say whether this frigid November is a harbinger of an exceptionally rough upcoming winter in Vermont.

This is ancedontal, but a November and awful lot like the current one came in 1967.   If the rest of this winter follows like it did in December, 1967 through early 1968, the news isn't good.  December, 1967 was slightly colder than normal. January, 1968 was brutal. That month set a record for the most consecutive hours of subzero weather in Burlington, though that record was broken in February, 1979.

January, 1968 was the fifth coldest on record. February, 1968 was much colder than normal, too. Mild air did not return that winter until late March.  So yeah, I'm hoping history doesn't repeat itself in this case.

Bitter Cold. Next Up: Freezing Rain In Vermont. Oh, Joy!

Bad road conditions in Burlington, Vermont last winter. Expect more
of the same as winter's early arrival keeps punishing us.

I'm more than a little jealous of people in north central and parts of the Northeast Kingdom.

Last evening, as those well-predicted snow squalls lumbered through, there were lightning strikes up in that area.

Thundersnow! I haven't seen that in a few years, so I missed out. Where I'm at in St. Albans, there were some snow showers, but nothing spectacular.  So congratulations to those who got thundersnow.  You get the Jim Cantore thundersnow excitement award.

Now, as expected, its ridiculously cold out there. Most of us were in the single numbers to low teens at dawn broke this morning. A couple subzero readings showed up.  As of 6 a.m., it was minus 2 at Gallup Mills, Vermont in the Northeast Kingdom and early this morning it was a remarkable 8 below at the tradtional cold spot of Saranac Lake, New York. 

We will have record cold high temperatures today, as temperatures only peak between 15 and 22 degrees. It should be in the low to mid 40s this time of year. More record low temperatures are due tonight, with lows regional wide from about minus 5 to plus 10.

Think this winter misery for so early in the season is over after that? Think again. I hope you like freezing rain and ice, because that seems like it's coming our way Monday into Tuesday.

Now, this won't be the type of 1998 ice storm that brings down all the trees and powerlines. Not by a long shot. There will only be a light accumulation of ice. Enough to make the roads, sidewalks and such a slick nightmare.

There's still a lot of question marks as to how much ice will come, exactly when it will come and how much sleet or snow might mix in.  On Monday afternoon, temperatures in many areas will probably sneak a couple degrees above freezing.

But it's been so cold that the ground is frigid, so rain will freeze when it hits. This is normally a problem later in the winter, not in November. But this is a bizarre month. Has been from Day 1.

The Monday evening commute and Tuesday morning trip to work will both be tricky.  Again, there won't be a lot of precipitation, but it will be the wrong kind.  At this point, it looks like the mix will change to snow Tuesday morning, but there won't be a huge accumulation.

This icy start to the week will come from an offshore nor'easter.  It will be pretty far out to sea, which explains why the precipitation won't be especially heavy in Vermont. But the weather pattern will pull moisture inland from the storm, which means we will get some icy ick coming from the sky.

This same nor'easter will cause gusty winds, coastal flooding and a lot of beach erosion in the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic states.

The next storm comes Friday. It's too soon to give you details. Early hints are it will be a rain to snow situation, but there's plenty of time yet to figure that one out.