"Meh" Storm Coming To Vermont Continues Very Changeable Weather Pattern

Here's that familiar National Weather Service snowfall prediction
map. This one is for late tonight and tomorrow and depicts
not such a big storm.  Most areas will have two to five inches
 of snow Yellow areas could get up to six inches. 

If you have work or fun do outside in the snow in Vermont, today's your day.

The rest of the day will be mild, and the sun will be out at least from time to time. What's not to like?

Besides, we have some see-sawing weather coming up, and you never know when will be the next good outdoor day.

The next storm, the one I explained yesterday, is making lots of headlines as it continues the flooding and some severe weather in the Southeast.  

There's quite a moisture feed into the storm in the Gulf Coast states and Tennessee and Ohio valleys with this one.

When the storm races toward New England tonight and tomorrow, that moisture feed won't be so hot this far north, so we can expect just a small scale storm.

There are winter weather advisories up in Vermont for areas away from the broad valleys, like parts of the Champlain and pieces of the Connecticut Valley.  In those valleys, forecasters are expecting two to four inches of snow late tonight and tomorrow.  The winter weather advisory zones are in for three to six inches of snow, as it looks now.

So, not a monster storm like last week, but one in which you will have to deal with.  Which means cleaning the snow off your car and driving carefully and slowly on potentially snow covered roads during the morning commute.

In far southern Vermont, the supply of moisture will be a little better with this storm than further north. However, there's a good chance that down in Bennington and Windham counties, some of this stuff will mix with sleet, freezing rain and/or rain. So it will be distinctly messier the further south you go in the Green Mountain State on Thursday.

The precipitation will tend to lighten up in the afternoon, but that's when temperatures will also start to drop.  It's the seesaw I talked about at the start of this here blog thingy.

There's a quick shot of Arctic air coming in, much like last week. That means zero degree temperatures by Friday morning and some wind chill problems, too. High temperatures won't get out of the single digits Friday afternoon, and then most of us will be between 10 and 20 below for actual temperatures late Friday night and early Saturday morning. Brrrr!!

Then we go into a dramatic warmup. Temperatures Saturday night won't really go down, and we'll bounce back up into the 30s Sunday.  In the Champlain Valley, it will "warm up cold," as I like to call it. That means actual temperatures will be on the mild side, but gusty winds will make it feel a lot colder.

It looks like a little snow and rain will come through Sunday, but it won't amount to much. Then we get cold again for Monday, but not nearly as cold as it will be Friday.

Beyond that, it looks like a storm will go by to our west, bringing in warmth and mixed precipitation next Tuesday.  That's an iffy one.  Consider that's six days away, and a lot can happen to forecasts in that time period.

It's a relatively safe bet another bout of inclement weather will come through next Tuesday.  But I'm not committing to which form that might take.

This up an down weather is beginning to give me motion sickness.

Storm Update: Huge Plains Mess Today; New England Mess Monday

Ice covers trees in my St. Albans yard in 2017. Scenes like this
will be common in parts of the upper Midwest, Ontario and New York
and New England between now and Monday.

That ongoing, slow moving winter storm out in the middle of the nation is, as expected, creating a mess in the middle of hte nation and will continue to do so through the weekend.

This storm is a slow mover, especially compared to the usual fast pace of weather systems this time of year.

This makes the winter weather with this storm even more long-lasting, annoying and disruptive than usual. The storm will also be remembered as one that will have spread ice through large sections of the Plains and elsewhere.  

Then, the action will skip to New England by Sunday night and Monday, and there will be a huge mess there, too. More on that down below, but first we'll get into what's going on in the Plains.

A wide stripe from western Nebraska, central South Dakota, eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota is still getting or going to get socked by eight to 20 inches of snow.  Just east of that, in eastern Nebraska, northwestern Iowa southeastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota, they're in for rain, freezing rain, sleet, then snow, blowing snow and gusty winds, so it will be a real mess where I am in Yankton, South Dakota.

In parts of southwestern Minnesota, an ice storm warning is in effect.  Freezing rain could accumulated to as thick as a half inch, which is more than enough to bring down trees and power lines.

A little to the south in Iowa, a few areas could see enough rain to cause some localized flooding

All this precipitation in South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa is unwelcome for another reason. This year will roughly tie last year as the wettest year on record in this region.  Despite what has been until now a relatively dry December, the ground is still totally soaked from two years of unprecedented rain and other precipitation.

The snow and ice will have to eventually melt, which will just provide more excess water. The James River in South Dakota, unbelievably, has been constantly in flood stage since March.

Further south, broadly in the area where Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas and Oklahoma meet, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms and perhaps a tornado or two later today and tonight.

ON TO NEW ENGLAND

This is just one forecast among many varying ones regarding the
potential for ice Monday. This map depicts ice accumulation
of more than a half inch in darker pink areas. That's enough to
cause damage. I would emphasize this is just one computer run
on one model and results will likely be very different, and likely
not as bad as this forecast indicates. Still something to
with out for, though. 

As the strong storm center moves into the Great Lakes, its warm front will want to come in from the southwest, bringing plenty of moisture for steady precipitation with it.

Meanwhile, cold high pressure way up in Quebec will be stubborn as hell, and not let the warm air advance.

The warm air will try to go up an over the cold air, which sets much of New England and New York up for mixed precipitation. A large section of Ontario is under the gun for freezing rain and sleet, too.

The battle between the cold and warm looks like it will reach a stalemate right over or near northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and maybe Massachusetts, so tha'ts the zone we have to really watch for ice and sleet.

Early indications are the freezing rain would be the biggest problem from the northern Adirondacks, southeastward into far southern Vermont, and into central New England, say in a broad area around Worcester.

There's a risk -not a certainty! -  these areas could see a damaging ice storm. The prolonged nature of the freezing rain from perhaps Sunday night through Monday, could bring enough freezing rain accumulations to bring down trees and power lines.

Remember, this freezing rain zone could end up being a little north and east, or a little south and west of current forecasts, so everybody in and around Vermont will want to watch this one.

People just to the northeast of the most intense freezing rain zone could end up getting a lot of sleet. I suppose that's better, because sleet doesn't accumulate on power lines and trees, it just bounces off. But if you get a bunch of sleet, it's heavier than hell to shovel away.  Far northern New England, maybe northern New Hampshire and a good chunk of Maine stand to get at least several inches of snow.

A secondary storm will likely form south of New England and move northeastward.  That would eventually help colder air leach in through all layers of the atmosphere, which would change much of the rain to snow.

Meanwhile, the parent low over the Great Lakes will slowly weaken and drift toward New England. All this means that the ski areas of Vermont and surrounding states will get a long period of snow. This would go probably from Monday night well into Wednesday.

It won't snow super hard, butthe long duration means the ski slopes would get many inches of recovery snow.  Temperatures won't be very cold, so the light snow would mix with rain in some of the valleys. Plus precipitation will be even lighter in the valleys than in the mountains.

This whole New England forecast, especially for the ice Sunday night and Monday will almost definitely change. This whole essay just gives you an idea of what we might expect. Stay tuned for inevitable adjustments to the forecast.

Bottom line: Expect lousy travel throughout the region Monday, with a risk of spotty power outages and tree damage.

Worry Grows Over Possible New Tornado Outbreak Today

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, this area
is at risk of tornadoes today. The yellow area is most
at risk for the twisters, and some of them might be strong.
The percentages are the chance of a tornado hitting
within a 25 mile radius of any given point in that area.

The start of the nation's tornado season has already been too tragic, with the 23 deaths from twisters i Alabama last Sunday.

Today is another potentially dangerous day, with a risk of tornadoes, again some possibly strong in the lower Mississippi Valley.

Before dawn, severe thunderstorms had already fired up from southwestern Missouri to northern Texas. Some storms with large hail were bombarding the Dallas-Fort Worth area early this morning.

As these storms move east, they'll only grow. Or, new rotating supercell thunderstorms will form, and those are the ones that could turn dangerous by this afternoon.

Based on data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center,  the area under the greatest risk for tornadoes, again some potentially strong, goes from extreme southern Illinois and extreme southeastern Missouri, down through the western parts of Kentucky and Tennessee and into northern Mississippi.

The risk of strong tornadoes is what's got everybody worried. Most tornadoes are relatively weak in the grand scheme of things. Tornado ratings are under something called the Enhanced Fujita, or EF scale. Most tornadoes are EFO, wth 65 to 85 mph winds, or EF1, with winds of 86 to 110 mph and EF2, with winds of up to 135 mph.

These types of tornadoes can cause a lot of damage, are dangerous and sometimes deadly. But most people who hide in windowless interior rooms like closets, or basements survive these storms.

With stronger tornadoes, even if people are warned they're coming, there's sometimes nowhere to go. In the Alabama tornadoes last week, many of the deaths were in mobile homes or standard wood frame homes. The tornado that caused all the deaths last week in Lee County, Alabama was an EF4, with winds of 166 to 200 mph.

As we saw in Alabama, tornadoes of that strength rip houses to shreds, with nothing but widely scattered debris left behind. How do you survive that?

It's impossible to say as of this morning whether any strong tornadoes actually form, but people in the higher risk zone had better pay very close attention to the weather today.

Tornado watches will likely first be issued. Tornado watches mean conditions are favorable for twisters, but they haven't necessarily formed yet. In the riskiest zones, I'd advise people to leave their mobile homes if a tornado watch is issued and find a more substantial building, just in case a tornado actually forms.

Better safe than sorry.

This is the deadly EF4 tornado last Sunday that killed 23 people
in Alabama. Like many big tornadoes in the South and East,
this one lacked the classic funnel shaped and to an untrained
eye might not have even looked  a tornado, but
just an angry mass of clouds. 

Anyone who gets a tornado warning should seek shelter right away. If a warning is issued, they shouldn't go outside or look through windows to see if the tornado is coming.

Especially in the southern and eastern United States, tornadoes are often embedded in downpours, so you can't see them coming. Plus there's a lot of trees and hills in the east, blocking views of approaching tornadoes.

Like many strong tornadoes, the big deadly tornado in Alabama last Sunday didn't have the classic funnel shape that we associate with such storms. Instead, it looked like just a mass of angry dark clouds as it approached. It wasn't clear to the untrained eye that it was actually an EF4 tornado. The same situation could happen today.

Yes, I'm hyperventilating a little here, as for all we know this outbreak of storms could mercifully turn out to be a dud. But it also might not, so this bears watching.

OTHER BAD WEATHER

As is often the case with tornadoes this time of year, the same storm system that is launching today's possible tornadoes is dumping heavy snow far to the north. This state of affairs certainly isn't as dangerous as a twister, but people should heed alerts and warnings in the snow zone.

A wide area from southeastern Montana to Wisconsin is under a winter storm warning for more than six inches of snow. This area has seen a lot of snow in the past six weeks and doesn't need more. Travel is not recommended in these areas.

Here in the Northeast, the storm's warm front will create a burst of snow and some mixed precipitation in much of New England. A winter weather advisory is up for southwestern New England because of this.

Here in Vermont, expect that burst of snow to come through during the morning, depositing a dusting to two inches of snow in most of the state, with two to four inches in many mountain areas and northeastern Vermont.

Winds will increase, too, gusting to 45 mph or so, especially in the Champlain Valley and the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

Especially west of the Green Mountains, temperatures will rise above freezing Sunday afternoon, leaving us with occasional light rain or showers.  Which means much of whatever falls will melt. The showers might stay as snow or sleet east of the Greens.

More snow showers will continue Sunday night through Monday night. Some rain will be mixed in through the valleys, but some high elevations could pick up a few to several inches of snow out of this.

Forecasters are hinting at the first strong warmup of the spring late next week. Highs in the 50s anyone? That's surely possible with this temporary pattern change.

Winter Storm Will Wind Down Today; Vermont Avalanche Problems To Follow?

I'm faced with another opportunity to dig the vehicles out
of the driveway as the snow continues to fall this morning
in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Well, we Vermonters are in the process of getting over another winter storm, though snow is continuing off and on at least into midday.

Amazingly, given the complexity of forecasting this thing, the storm behaved pretty close to what was expected. Sleet and some freezing rain worked its way as far north as somewhere between Route 4 and Route 2.

The thought was the sleet would make it to around Route 2. Given the forecast challenges, that is pretty close to what was expected.

It was still snowing in most of Vermont as of 8:30 a.m., so snow totals are not final. But it looks like the National Weather Service in South Burlington and most local meteorologists got it right. 

For instance, as of 8 a.m, my property in St. Albans, Vermont had gotten 7.6 inches of snow. (Somebody else in town measured 8.2 inches). This was measured right before a heavier band of snow started to move through. So the local forecast of eight to 12 inches for northwestern Vermont will verify.

Elsewhere, the most snow as of 7:30 p.m. in Vermont were 9.5 in Alburgh, a town that was expected to be a hot spot for deeper accumulation. Moretown reported 10 inches. Accumulations in southern Vermont were four to eight inches, suppressed somewhat by the mixture with sleet.

Further north, it was an even bigger storm. Montreal reported close to 16 inches of new snow.

A final, decent band of snow was crossing much of Vermont this morning. It'll pretty much make it through and taper off by midday. (It was coming down hard in St. Albans at 9 a.m.) Until at least noon, expect snow covered, slippery roads and slow going. As most of you already know, a lot of schools are closed and delayed.

If possible, you should delay driving until this afternoon, when conditions improve. By then, we'll have just light snow and flurries. Temperatures will rise to near or just above freezing in the warmer valleys, and near 30 elsewhere. That's more than warm enough for road salt to work, and the plows will surely be out all day too.

The strong winds developed as expected along the western slopes of the Green Moutains, too.  Winds gusted to 64 mph in Mendon and 60 mph in Danby. In the mountains, gusts reached 76 mph atop Mount Mansfield and 91mph atop Whiteface Mountain, New York.

The National Weather Service/South Burlington raised a good point in their forecast discussion this morning. Back country winter sports enthusiasts should really be careful for the next few days.

The snow and sleet that fell can easily slide on steep slopes. Especially since it fell on old, crusty snow. This new snow and sleet won't "bond" to the pre-existing snowcover, so it can easily turn into an avalanche. Strong mountain winds also produced a lot of snow loading in chutes and ravines, which also increases the risk of avalanches.

This risk extends through the Green, White and Adirondack mountains. The NWS has issued a special weather statement to alert people to this problem.

After today, the next storm is coming along Friday. It won't be as big as forecasters thought earlier this week, but it will be a warm one.

Expect snow and rain showers on Friday as temperatures rise well into the 30s to near 40 in the warmer valleys. A couple inches of additional snow will probably accumulate in the mountains. Unfortunately, the snow will turn crusty again in the valleys as temperatures fall Saturday, and we will once again have a lot of ice underfoot, as we have most of this changeable winter.

After this weekend, it's hard to tease out what kind of storminess wil happen around here. The weather pattern is fast and active and complex, so it's nearly impossible to gauge the development, timing, path and strength of any storm more than a few days away.

Burlington, Vermont is now just about up to its normal amount of snow for an entire winter - around 80 inches. But that surely means the snow won't shut off. There will be more after this week. It's just hard to tell when and how much.

What A Mess! Winter Storm Hits Much Of Eastern U.S (Vermont Included)

It's been quite awhile since I've seen a winter storm hit such a large part of the United States in mid-November.

A remarkably big area of the nation from Missouri to Maine
were under a variety of winter weather alerts this morning
(Areas in pink, blue and purple were under the winter
advisories. Big area for November.

As of early this morning winter storm watches and warnings, ice storm warnings and winter weather advisories stretched from Missouri to Maine. 

We're included in this here in Vermont, and I'll get into detail about what to expect in a bit. 

The big picture comes first. Many places that aren't used to November snow and ice have been hit hard. The St. Louis, Missouri area got three to four inches of snow, with up to seven inches in the suburbs.

Even the mountains of western North Carolina are being pummeled by snow and heavy accumulations of ice from freezing rain this morning. 

It's been a full-blown ice storm in parts of Indiana and Ohio, where there was so much ice this morning that travel was strongly discouraged. Close to 100,000 people were without electricity in Ohio, and that situation was worsening as of mid-morning. 

Even places along the East Coast are getting bursts of snow and ice before precipitation changes to rain. The Washington DC area got a burst of moderate snow, and that trend will continue today as the storm moves northward along the East Coast.

In the New York City area and on into southern New England, the burst of moderate to heavy snow will come just in time for today's evening commute, which I'm sure will make things just lovely there. 

Then, it will be on to northern New England

VERMONT IMPACTS

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont
has this best guess for snowfall with the upcoming storm
tonight and Friday. Areas in yellow can expect roughl
six inches of new snow. Blue areas will be closer to
five inches.

This storm is the type that I call front loaded. Out ahead of the storm a roughly east to west band of heavier snow is steadily moving north. 

That's the burst of snow I talked about just before that was in Washington DC and heading north. 

This band will move roughly southwest to northeast across Vermont tonight at a fairly slow pace. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington estimates it will start snowing in the Bennington area around 7 p.m. this evening. By around 1 a.m. Friday, this snow should reach the Northeast Kingdom.

Exactly how this band moves and potentially pivots will determine how much snow falls, as most of the accumulation will come as this ribbon of heavier snow passes through. 

Many areas of Vermont could see snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour for about five hours. This translates to 5 to as much as 12 inches of total snowfall. 

Northeastern Vermont is under a winter storm warning for the second time this week. The Adirondacks are also under that warning. These two areas are forecast to pick up five to nine inches of new snow, with possibly a light glaze of ice on top of that which would come toward the end of the storm tomorrow. 

The rest of Vermont is under a slightly less dire but still noteworthy winter weather advisory, with four to six inches of snow expected. I have to say  the expected snowfall totals in the advisory areas isn't much different from those of us under a winter storm warning, but oh well.

The bottom line is it's sure to be a rather frightful commute to work Friday morning statewide. The cliche advisories are out: Take lots of extra time to make get to work and school, clear the snow completely off your car, drive slowly, and watch out for those idiots who can't drive in the snow. They're always out there.

As for you smug people in the Champlain Valley who escaped most of the snow Tuesday, you're out of luck. The valley will share in that four to six inch snowfall this time. 

As the snow keeps coming down overnight and Friday morning, it will keep getting wetter and heavier, which puts the risk of broken tree limbs and power lines in play. So be prepared for that, too.

The evening commute Friday might be a little better, but there will still be some snow showers around, so be prepared for that. 

As I whined about yesterday, it's really like winter has settled in early. Some places this morning were brutal. Island Pond, Vermont reported a reading of 6 below. Saranac Lake, NY was 4 below. 

Snow cover is getting deep in some high elevations. I noticed the snow depth this morning in Sheffield, Vermont, high in the Northeast Kingdom, is up to 14 inches. Pretty impressive for mid-November. 

The forecast through Thanksgiving calls for continued wintry temperatures. On the bright side, it doesn't look like there will be any blockbuster snowfalls. At least at this point. But there will be occasional periods of flurries and snow showers to keep things looking like mid-winter.  

One More Bout of Winter, Then It Turns Spring-ish In The North Country

A mid-winter scene in the spring in my St. Albans, Vermont
yard Saturday evening, with 14 inches of dense snow on the
ground. Some of this snow will finally disappear with thawing
over the next week or so. 

Up here in Vermont, winter drags on, for a little while longer, at least.

Skies cleared up last evening, and with the unseasonably deep snow cover helping to refrigerate things, it got wicked cold again.  

Nearly a week into spring, it was 1 below this morning in Saranac Lake, New York, and near or below zero in a smattering of cold hollows in northern Vermont.

It didn't get quite that cold here at my hacienda in St. Albans, Vermont, but there was 14 inches of snow on the ground as of last evening. (There was "only" 7 inches left down in Burlington, which largely missed out on Friday's heavier snow.)

Next up: Freezing rain.

The sun will fade behind increasing clouds here in the North Country for the rest of the day. However, there will be enough sun to get us above freezing for awhile this afternoon. Temperatures will get to 40 or a little more in most spots, so we'll lose a bit of this pesky snow cover. Not much, but a little.

It's a gorgeous day to hit the ski slopes, though, and the skiing conditions are awesome, so you might want to consider that.

Then the next storm comes in this evening and overnight. This time, it doesn't look like there will be much in the way of snow, but freezing rain is going to be a problem.

Freezing rain advisories are up for the eastern half of Vermont, Bennington County, and the central and souther Adirondacks, and parts of southwestern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts.

Northern New Hampshire and western Maine will probably start out as snow tonight and then quickly go over to sleet and freezing rain. Winter weather advisories are on for those spots.

There won't be enough freezing rain to bring down much in the way of trees and power lines, but there will be icy roads through the Monday morning commute. The worst travel conditions will be on secondary roads. You'll need to watch out on the main highways, too, but they'll be treating those roads, so that will help.

If you're on foot, those sidewalks are going to be horrible. Break out those Yak Trax!

In Vermont's Champlain Valley, temperatures tonight and early Monday will stay near or just a smidge above 32 degrees. There will be spotty freezing rain for the morning commute in a few spots, but forecasters at this point don't thing that ice will be terribly widespread near Lake Champlain.

For those who are really weary of deep winter in spring, I've got some marginally good news. It's going to turn less wintry, starting Monday afternoon.

Rest assured we won't have any gloriously warm, sunny days in the near future. The weather will be unsettled for the next few days, for sure. But not blizzardy or frigid.

Rain and gloom will continue through the day on Monday, as temperatures climb into the low 40s. Another round of showers comes in Tuesday, but temperatures will rise into the 40s to near 50.

At this point, it doesn't look like there will be enough snow melt with this rain and thaw to cause any significant flooding. But some storm drains are clogged with snow and ice, so I imagine there will be some spotty street flooding in places that still have a lot of snow on the ground.

Speaking of snow, it's going to snow again! Scared you, didn't I?

This time, though, it's not that big a deal. Snow showers will dust the mountains Tuesday night through Thursday. There might even be some slushy accumulations in the valleys of northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

But afternoon readings will get to 40 degree or so Wednesday through Friday - still kind of chilly for late March but nothing like the frigid weather we're coming out of.

Beyond Friday, I have no clue what the weather will be like going into next weekend. The computer forecasting models are all over the place. My forecast for next weekend as of today is this: There will be precipitation unless there isn't. The wind will come out of a direction. There will also be temperatures.

Specific enough for you?

Cold Blast Underway Ugly Mess This Weekend

Snow blowing across a road in St. Albans, Vermont
Thursday made for slow going at times. Things
got worse, and much colder, later in the day. 

As expected, you're going to freeze your tush off this morning.

It's below zero pretty much everywhere in northern New England and New York, and winds are still pretty biting out there. Wind chills at dawn are in the minus teens in many areas.

Take extra time to start your car and drive to work. Roads aren't great, because there's some snow an ice on them, and it's too cold for salt to work.

While you're grumbling about this, at least be thankful you're not atop Mount Washington, New Hampshire.

As of 4 a.m. it was 33 below zero with a northwest wind gusting to 85 mph for a wind chill of 84 below.

Lovely.

The core of the cold air was passing just to the north of New England. You could see it in reports from southeastern Quebec. At 4 a.m. Sherbrooke was at minus 13 with a wind chill of 38 below.

Next up for us in the Northeast: Out of the freezer and into the wintry mix.

The next storm is going to produce a dramatic, if brief warm up around here in New England, but we'll pay the price with a messy mix of winter weather.

Actually, most of the nation is joining in on this icy, snowy fun.

Like the cross country storm last week, this one is causing, or will cause, unpleasant winter weather from coast to coast.

Only this storm is stronger than last week's, so the weather in many cases will be worse. And the trouble areas are even bigger than in the mid-sized storm last week.

Winter storm warnings, watches and advisories stretch through a remarkably huge area of the United States, from Oregon to Maine and from New Mexico to Michigan

By my count, parts or all of 35 states were under some sort of winter advisory or warning as of early Friday morning.

What fun!

Up here for us northern New Englanders, snow will break out after midnight tonight and continue well into Saturday. Expect poor travel conditions as another three to five inches of snow blankest Vermont and surrounding areas.

There might be a lull in the precipitation Saturday afternoon and early evening, before a wave of mixed precipitation moves in.

In the Champlain Valley and lowlands of southern Vermont and central and southwestern New Englan and coastal areas, it will be mostly rain. In New York's St. Lawrence Valley, areas east of the Green Mountains in Vermont and in much of New Hampshire and Maine, it will be freezing rain.

That's not good!

As you can imagine, the entire Northeast is under a winter weather advisory this weekend.

And before you get too smug in the areas that go to plain rain, you're still screwed. We had all that Arctic air, so rain falling on pavement that had gotten chilled by this Arctic cold blast will freeze, even if the air temperature is above 32 degrees.

Expect more travel headaches Saturday night and Sunday morning, that's for sure.

It'll be mild part of the day Sunday before a cold front swings in during the afternoon. Guess what! A flash freeze!

All that half melted snow from the mild weather and rain part of Sunday will instantly turn to hard ice as temperatures plunge to near zero Sunday night. Roads will again turn into icy nightmares for our Monday commute.

Just when you thought this very inconvenient winter weather will never end, it will, for a time.

After that next Arctic blast this weekend and early next week, warmer and less stormy weather should temporarily envelop most of the nation for the majority of next week.

Here in Vermont and the rest of New England, look for temperatures to start trending to above normal for Wednesday or Thursday, with little precipitation in the forecast by that time.

Northern Vermont Still In The Bulleye For Snow

Here's the latest snowfall projections through
Monday from the National Weather Service
in South Burlington, Vermont. Click
on the map to make it bigger and easier to see.  

It still looks like it's going to snow quite a bit over a good chunk of Vermont and parts of northern New Hampshire tonight and Monday.

Given the highly iffy state of affairs in the northern New England atmosphere as a storm approaches, forecasts for snowfall are remarkably the same as they were last evening.

Northern Vermont looks to be in the sweet spot for snow with this one.

Go a little to the west, and precipitation won't be all that heavy. Go a little east into New Hampshire and you get into the mixed precipitation.

If forecasts hold, it looks like the heaviest snow in Vermont will fall north of a V-shaped line from St. Albans, down to a little below Montpelier then back up to the St. Johnsbury area.

That's the zone covered under a winter storm warning, meaning a snowstorm is pretty much considered imminent. That's an upgrade from the winter storm watch of last evening. A watch means "maybe, but we're not really all that sure yet."

The spine of the Green Mountains south of Barre all the way down to the Mount Snow Ski Area in southern Vermont looks like they'll get a good five to ten inches of snow as well.

Most other areas of Vermont are under a winter weather advisory for wet, heavy snow, but accumulations will only be in the 2 to 6 inch category. This somewhat lighter zone includes Burlington, Middlebury, Rutland, and White River Junction, Vermont and Plattsburgh, N.Y.

The areas around Bennington and Brattleboro in far southern Vermont will only get a dusting to an inch or two of slush. But watch out east of the Green Mountains in the lower Connecticut River valley. Freezing rain will fall or a time today.

Even though watches have been upgrades to winter storm warnings and advisories, I still caution there is a high potential for forecasts to be wrong.

It'll get warm enough this afternoon for precipitation to start as rain in most of Vermont. The question is, at what point tonight will it get cold enough for the precipitation to change to snow? If the changeover comes later than expected, obviously less snow than forecast would accumulate.

Far northern New Hampshire is under a winter weather advisory for three to five inches of snow, mixed with sleet, freezing rain and rain. Kinda yucky there.

Deeper valleys haven't seen the south winds that have been scouring out warm air.  That means some of the deeper valleys, especially across the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, much of New Hampshire and the northwestern half of Maine, could see freezing rain this afternoon when precipitation arrives.

As of 7 a.m this morning, with calm winds, it was minus 2 in Berlin, N.H., so it would take a lot for warm air to scour down to that valley. Meanwhile, Burlington, Vermont, where a south wind has been blowing all night, gusting to 40 mph at times, it was 25 degrees as of 7 a.m.

The precipitation will change to plain rain in much of New Hampshire and most of Maine tonight, but the rain might still freeze on contact with the ground even if the air temperature is above freezing. Road and other surfaces are cold from the stretch of subzero weather we've had, so things could stay icy overnight.

I'd also note that any rain that falls in Vermont before a changeover to snow could also freeze on roads and sidewalks, even if temperatures are above freezing.

By the way, some of those overnight Champlain Valley winds have been quite strong, gusting over 40 mph in many places, including around my house in St. Albans, Vermont. Quite a few small branches blew off the trees around my house overnight. Those winds should lighten up later today.

Freezing rain is falling across much of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, Westchester County, N.Y and Connecticut this morning, and there have been lots of accidents reported. It'll go over to plain rain there later, but meanwhile, if you're in that area, stay off the roads until Sunday afternoon.

All hell is breaking loose down there this morning. Parts of the New Jersey Turnpike, and most of the bridges over the Delaware River were closed as of 8 a.m. this morning due to ice and many car crashes.

The freezing rain is moving into Massachusetts this morning. So if you're approaching Boston from the west for the New England Patriots game later today, delay your trip a bit or be very, very careful.

Frankly, you'd be better off watching the AFC Championship game between the Patriots vs. Indiana Colts this evening on television, rather than at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. A drenching rain, with temperatures only in the low 40s is expected at game time. There might even be some thunder and lightning with this. Yikes!

The snow and/or rain should taper off across New England on Monday as the storm rolls pretty quickly up toward the Canadian Maritimes.

Then, for the rest of the week, we revert back to the quiet and cold weather pattern that we've seen for most of January.

The Ice Season Cometh. Now.

Freezing rain contributed to this pileup on
a Utah highway a couple years ago. 

Once we get into December especially, and on through until at least March, freezing rain and sleet becomes a much bigger hazard.

Cue the winter weather advisories. And the extremely stupid people who insist on driving faster than a rocket ship on glare ice.

A huge area from Ohio, on through almost all of Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and the northwest corner of Massachusetts are in for some ice later today and tonight.

The concern this time isn't so much ice caving in trees and power lines, but people not knowing how to drive on icy roads, and causing crashes.

By this late in the season, cold blasts from Canada mean business. We knew that when the temperature dropped by 60 degrees overnight Saturday in the Midwest when record highs in the 60s and 70s becae bitter cold low temperatures in the single digits.

Cold air like this is more dense than warm air, and tends to hug the ground. When warm air tries to move north to re-establish ground, it glides up and over the cold air.

Often when this happens, precipitation breaks out as well. And it's happening now. The cold air invaded the Northeast yesterday and last night, and now a warm front wants to move north and cause a brief warmup up in that part of the country.

Much of the precipitation will start as snow. With the warm air gliding over the cold, eventually the snow will change to rain up above us by several thousand feet. But then the rain will fall into the cold air and re-freeze, turning to sleet, or ice pellets.

As the warm air continues to move north and assert itself, that layer of cold air near the surface will become narrower. So the rain falling into the cold won't freeze until it hits the ground. That's freezing rain, and even more dangerous for driving on than sleet or snow

The ice is smoother and particularly slippery, so roads will be treacherous region wide during this period of transition from snow to sleet to freezing rain.

None of this precipitation is going to be heavy, at least this time. So I'm not too worried about heavy layers of ice piling up on trees and power lines, causing them to snap.

Freezing rain exactly a year ago contributed to a pileup
on this Worcester, Mass. bridge. Photo by Christine Peterson,
Worcester Telegram and Gazette.  

But it only takes a tiny, tiny amount of sleet and freezing rain to make the roads really dangerous.  Last year, there was a 65 car pileup near Worcester, Mass because of less than a tenth of an inch of ice.

And it's tricky. In one spot on the road, it's already above freezing and just raining, so you think you're fine. Then a short distance down the road, it's freezing, so you're taken by surprise.

Then there's the other boneheads out there. You're crawling along, being careful on the icy roads, and the idiots are zooming past you, because they have to do their usual 80 mph, because that's what they always do and they're going to keep doing it.

Then they cause a pileup. I've seen YouTube videos of pileups on icy Interstates because most people are going slow, and a couple morons are speeding, can't stop when they encounter the slow traffic and slam into them.

These speed demons deserve a special place in hell for causing so much harm for other people, and also causing the inconvenience for thousands stuck in the traffic jam behind the pileup.

Why do these speed demons only get charged at most with careless driving?  If they hurt or kill somebody, shouldn't they be charged with murder or aggravated assault or something?

Will one of these icy road speeders please explain to me why it's so necessary to go so fast on glare ice? Do you want to cause deadly crashes? Are you in a murderous mood? Or are you too stupid to be alive, and somebody needs to take your car keys away from you because you are the biggest imbecile on the planet?

Thanks, I had to get that off my chest.

The worst of the icy roads will be this morning and early afternoon in Ohio and Pennsylvania; during the day in New York, and this evening, overnight and Wednesday morning in northeastern New York, and in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

The warm front will eventually win out, and the precipitation will change to rain and end in most areas by Wednesday afternoon.

But it's December. It will quickly get cold again, and we'll have to deal with freezing rain and sleet on many more occasions as the winter progresses.

Messy Storm Expected To Dwindle To Nasty Freezing Drizzle

Depending upon where you are in northern New York or northern New York, forecasts for this weekend's storm turned out to be exactly right or off. 

The gloomy weather will continue today and
will remain like this web cam grab from Malletts Bay,
Colchester, Vermont Sunday morning. 

That was to be expected, considering the air temperature that was right near freezing and air temperatures aloft that were on the cusp of supporting  snow, sleet, ice or rain.

A few miles difference in location meant the

difference between snow, rain, ice or all of the above.   

Generally, the storm has so far behaved as expected. The southern half of Vermont, southern and central New Hampshire and New York south of the Adirondacks got mostly rain, as was predicted.  

The Adirondacks got mostly snow, again, as expected, with reported amounts up to 8 inches in Altona, New York and 7.5 Ellenburg Center, New York reported so far.

Warm air aloft moved across Vermont from east to west and stopped pretty much over Lake Champlain. So the New York side got snow, and Vermont, not much. So far, the deepest new snow and sleet accumulation reported in Vermont is two inches near Waterbury Center.

Northwestern Vermont caught a break: That area was expecting snow and sleet amounting to three to five inches, but accumulations there are less than an inch.

Where I live in St. Albans, it was mostly rain overnight. But early this morning, just as I remarked how glad I was it didn't snow, precipitation turned to sleet and a little snow. So far, only a slushy coating here. 

In southern New England, again as expected, enough rain fell to cause some flooding problems. A lot of places there got more than two inches of rain and some more is falling. 

The worst hit seems to be Rhode Island, where as of 8 a.m. Providence was closing in on rainfall of four inches from this storm, rain was still coming down hard and flash flood warnings were up for most of that state.

The main body of rain is heading up into northeastern New England this morning, but the parent storm system is sort of hanging around the Northeast.

This means the rather ugly weather in New England won't end until early Monday.

In northern New York and northern Vermont, temperatures will slowly drop during the day. Rain and mixed precipitation will turn to a depressing freezing drizzle. Not much ice will accumulate, but roads could get slick this afternoon through the early Monday morning commute.

In central New England, including the southern halves of Vermont and New Hampshire, a packet of moisture riding around the storm system will create snow, sleet and freezing rain tonight. This is the area that so far escaped winter weather with this system.

But tonight, those areas can expect 1 to 3 inches of snow, sleet and ice accumulation tonight. 

The ice and mix will end Monday morning.  And good news for both people who want to see the snow melt and maple sugaring enthusiasts: The upcoming week in northern New England will be just a tad cooler than average. That means that though nights will mostly go below freezing, daytime highs will get into the 40s, melting some of the snow in the valleys.

Meanwhile out in the Great Plains, blizzard watches and warnings and winter storm warnings remain in effect tonight and Monday as a storm rolls through there. Those areas can expect six to 15 inches of snow with winds of up to 50 mph.

Lovely.

The Northeast is not expected to get hit much by that storm. Maybe just a few light rain and snow showers across northern New York and the northern half of New England Tuesday night. 

Forecast For A Windy Friday Stays The Same

It was windy, warm and wet early this morning in the Champlain Valley as a strong storm continues to move across the Great Lakes into Canada.

Wind bends trees in St. Albans Thursday afternoon.
It'll be even windier in Vermont today.  

Pre-dawn temperatures of near 60 degrees were close to normal for July, not the first of November.

That warmth is the first clue it's going to be an odd, busy day in the weather department.

Winds in north-south oriented valleys, like along Lake Champlain, were gusting to near 40 mph in the early morning, and those will increase later today.

It might seem odd to some, but the strongest winds today will come this afternoon, when the rain tapers off and the sun breaks through the clouds at times. Then, winds in Vermont will gust to 50 mph and up to 60 mph in northern New York.

Those bits of sun will come after the storm's cold front comes through. Just ahead of the front, for the rest of this morning and maybe into the early afternoon in eastern Vermont, the showers will continue. A gusty downpour might come through just ahead of the cold front, and don't be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder.

After the front goes through, even stronger winds from several thousand feet above the surface will occasionally be able to dip down to the earth's surface, where we live, which explains why forecasters think the strongest winds will come this afternoon.

Be ready for scattered power failures and some downed branches and trees. My lawn in St Albans, Vermont  is already littered with small branches because winds here have been gusting to at least 40 mph at times since yesterday afternoon.

Usually, it turns colder after a cold front (A cold front being the front part of a big batch of cold air, duh!) but in this case, the chill is lagging quite a ways behind the front.

So we'll wait awhile for the chill to arriv and we'll have a warm Friday. It could make it to 70 degrees in some areas, especially maybe the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut River valley.

The record high temperature for today's date in Burlington is 71 degrees set in 1950, and there is a chance we could break that record.

The cold air will come in, of course, and it will start to turn cooler tonight. Saturday will be a transition day, with steady or slowly falling temperatures during the day, with scattered rain showers changing to snow showers and flurries Saturday night.

On Sunday, you'll know its November, as daytime temperatures won't even make it out of the 30s, for highs, there will be a lot of clouds around, and a chilly north breeze will add to the frostiness.