A Nice Dash Of Spring Saturday; A Quick Slap Of Winter Next

This perennial bed on my St. Albans, Vermont property emerged
from underneath the snow for the first time since December. You
can see the brook in the background running muddy and
high from the thaw. A half hour after this photo was taken today,
snow once again began mixing with the rain.

Saturday morning, I drove to work from St. Albans to Burlington, Vermont under cold, gray skies, a smattering of light sleet and cold rain clattering on the windshield.

When I got out of work in the late afternoon, it had turned much milder - it was the first 60 degree reading of the year in Burlington, and the first time it was that warm since October 20.

A crocus in a warm, sunny corner by the front of the building had popped into bloom.

On the way home, I noticed swamp maples budding in the low, marshy ground between Colchester and Milton. Overnight, the temperature hovered near 60 degrees.

If that's not spring, I don't know what is.

This is Vermont, of course, so spring comes in fits and starts, and winter always loves to try and reassert itself at every opportunity.

So it was with a cold front this morning. Here in St. Albans, the temperature fell from the upper 50s to the upper 30s within an hour as the cold front blustered through. As of 12:15 p.m., rain was turning to snow.

Unlike last Friday, this isn't turning out to be a blockbuster snow, but it's a reminder that spring is never easy in Vermont.

For the rest of the day, the cold front will keep moving east, erasing any remaining warmth from eastern parts of Vermont. The precipitation will taper off, but rain and snow showers will keep going in many areas, especially the mountains.

Another little band of moisture will reinvigorate the snow showers tonight. Northern mountains could pick up a few inches of snow. Many valley locations will have whitened ground again by morning. Monday will be windy and wintry and chilly, with highs in the 30s. Sigh.

Let's put it in perspective, though. A bit of snow on the ground and temperatures in the 30s are routine in Vermont on April Fools Day. Plus, spring is a worthy opponent of winter. It will win. The battle between the two seasons will go on for awhile, though.

By Tuesday, temperatures will be seasonably mild again. Another nor'easter has been scaring me just a tiny bit, though. Almost all the forecasts have it passing far enough to our east on Wednesday to not affect us, other than maybe throw some clouds our way.

I'm just gun-shy after last week, when a nor'easter that was expected to stay away clobbered us with a ton of late season snow. This upcoming one on Wednesday, though, looks more likely to stay completely away. Fingers crossed!

Thursday will be cooler behind a cold front, but not terrible - highs in the low 40s is not odd at all for early April. More storminess is possible next weekend. It's too soon to say how things will shake out, but preliminary forecasts look more wet than white. Again, fingers crossed!

In another encouraging note, temperatures just might run a bit above normal for the first half of April here in Vermont, at least if long range forecasts turn out to be accurate. (They aren't always that great, but I like to pin my hopes on positive news.)

By the way, there was quite a burst of snow melt with the warmth overnight and the briefly heavy showers this morning. No widespread flooding is expected in Vermont out of this, but there might be pockets of high water today and tonight, especially behind any ice jams that form in northern areas.

Not that big a deal, but something to watch out for. Don't drive through any flood waters, please.

"Superbloom" Dazzling California And Arizona; Stupid People Threaten To Ruin It

A view of this year's Super Bloom in California

A spectacular "super bloom" is engulfing desert areas of California and Arizona after a very wet winter re-energized plants in arid parts of the southwest.

Hillsides there are dazzling with acres and acres and acres of red poppies, along with lupine, phacelia, popcorn flower, lily, snapdragon and varieties of sunflower.

The result are hillsides so colorful that they - I hate to say it - are at least as stunningly gorgeous if not more so than the fall foliage that brings millions of tourists here to Vermont.   Even photos from space are capturing the gorgeous colors of this super bloom

Newsweek calls this "perfect storm" conditions for a super bloom, but of course storm is not what comes to mind when you see photos and videos of these flowers. But storms are why they are there.

In some spots, wildfire heat and smoke can prime the pump to germinate seeds. If it rains a lot in the months following these fires, ideal conditions develop for super blooms.

Which is happening this year.

Of course, everybody wants to see this super bloom, and that brings out the idiots.

The ecosystem in these super bloom sites is fragile, and visitors really must stay on marked trails or else they'll damage the plants and soil, forever wrecking future super blooms. But of course some people don't, because their own Instagram shots are far more important that the blooms, and the future enjoyment of other visitors.

Apparently, getting "likes" on Instagram is much more important than preserving parks for future super blooms.

So they lay down in the flowers for the glamour shot. And doing so means flowers won't grow back in that spot for ages. Thanks a lot, scummy "fashion models!"

In Lake Elsinore, California, officials had to close down access to Walker Canyon becaue the roads, including Interstate 15, got so clogged with visitors. Area officials started a shuttle service, costing $10 per person, to bring things down to a dull roar.

This recent satellite photo clearly shows the bright colors of
this year's super bloom in southern California.

Many of the visitors were also not prepared. These are hiking trails. Outdoors. In nature. And weather.

So people got stuck or mildly injured because they didn't bring decent hiking shoes, proper clothing and water. Plus, some were not in good enough physical shape to hike.

One particularly entitled pair decided to set a helicopter down this past Tuesday in the Antelope Valley California Poppy Reserve, says the Los Angeles Times.

Obviously, there is no airport or landing pad in the reserve. As the Los Angeles Times reports:

"'We never thought it would be explicitly necessary to state that it is illegal to land a helicopter in the middle of the fields and begin hiking off trail in the Antelope Valley Poppy Reserve,' officials said in a Facebook post along with the hashtag #Don'tDoomTheBloom.

'We were wrong.'"

The pair fled in the helicopter when rangers began approaching to find out what the hell these two were thinking. Officials said they are still trying to identify the helicopter and its occupants.

I certainly can't blame people for wanting to see this spectacular show from nature. We all love to see things like this. Most people are pretty responsible about it, too. I just hope as soon as somebody sees some moron doing something damaging, they get called out.

A little bit of public shaming wouldn't hurt, either.

Here's a nice video tour around Lake Elsinore, California recently:



Once this video gets going after the preliminaries, the views are spectacular:

A Strange, Babyish "Solution" To Climate Change

U.S. Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah says if we all get married and have
babies, climate change will be solved. Or something. 

Like most of us, I still haven't fully digested the "Green New Deal"

For those who have been living under a rock for the past several months, the Green New Deal is a sweeping, long-term proposal to deal with climate change in a multi-faceted way, while also taking care to deal with other social ills.

There's a lot of moving parts to the Green New Deal, and if it goes anywhere, it will change and change and change again. We'll be hearing about this for a long time. Probably as long as climate change remains a deep concern. In other words, practically forever.

A lot of Republicans don't like the Green New Deal and even mock it. That is understandable, because liberals are most likely in support of it, and the Green New Deal does contain a lot of proposals that people left of center would tend to like.

That's all and good. The debate over what to do about climate change is missing conservative voices. If there were serious proposals from conservatives, maybe we'd get some decent compromises, probably some new ideas and maybe a better game plan to deal with climate change.

However, too many conservatives dismiss climate change as a hoax, or God's will, or something nobody can do anything about.

Finally, though, we have a conservative voice in this! Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah stepped into the fray this week.

He said:

"This is the real solution to climate change: babies..the solution to so many of our problems at all times and in all places is to fall in love, get married, and have some kids."

Um, OK?

It's hard to fathom what Lee was getting at here. Maybe being married and having kids is so all-consuming and distracting that you don't notice climate change. Sort of, if you're too busy to notice the house is on fire, then the house isn't on fire.

As CNN reports, Lee went on to explain his logic here.  Lee said, "Problems of human imagination are not solved by more laws, they're solved by more humans..... More people mean bigger markets for more innovation. More babies mean forward-looking adults, the sort we need to tackle long-term, large scale problems."

Well, actually I agree with at least part of that whole-heartedly. We do need more forward looking adults capable of tackling long term, big problems like climate change.

So, I'll open up a can of worms here that will drive conservatives crazy. Let's welcome more immigrants!

Sure, we can't just let everybody come across our borders. The United States does need security and sovereignty, after all. But let's face it, Trump and his supporters are fighting tooth and nail to keep pretty much everybody out. Especially if they're people of color.  Can't have non-whites coming in, can we?

My point is, Lee is right, a steadily rising population is necessary for a strong, sociall, vibrant and economically sound nation brimming with new ideas. Yes, even if those ideas come from people of color.

Climate change activists note, with a lot of accuracy, that adding more people to the world doesn't solve climate change. It just boosts fossil fuel emissions, because the bigger the population, the more greenhouse gases end up in the atmosphere.

If so many people want to come into the United States and claim refugee status, let's look into it. Let's let more in, as long as they actually qualify for such status. Let's let in a fair number of immigrants, too.

You never know which ones might have some bright, smart ideas on climate change. Who knows if some kid from Guatamala comes up with a brilliant plan to stabilize the world's climate. Stranger things have happened.

Young people seem to have all the energy when it comes to climate change activism. They have the most to lose if global warming is not addressed. They're the activists here.

Of course, I'm giving Lee way too much credit here. He's just another Republican offering mocking talking points to a rabid, Trumpian base.

So we got from Lee the usual bullcrap stupidity of saying the Green New Deal aims to rid the world of airplanes and farting cows. Really. I'm not making this up. Lee also set up poster board sized pictures of things like Ronald Reagan riding a velociraptor. That's not made up, either.

Lee said that pic was meant to make us "consider the Green New Deal with the seriousness it deserves."

Again. Um, OK.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a principal backer of the Green New Deal, responded to Lee on Twitter thusly: "Like many woman + working people, I occasionally suffer from imposter syndrom: Those small moments, especially on hard days, where you wonder if the haters are right. But then they do things like this to clear it right up: If this guy can be Senator, you can do anything."

It doesn't seem like our government is going to respond to climate change in any real way, huh?

Spring Springs In Vermont; Some Flooding Risk, But So Far, Nothing Extreme

A muddy path through the snow in my St. Albans, Vermont
yard this morning. Hoping the warm temperatures over the
next couple of days gets rid of the snow, and we
could then move on into spring from there. 

It was blessedly warmish in Vermont this morning.  Not warm, not balmy, but we'll take anything we can get.

I'm sticking by my prediction of no subzero readings again in Vermont until next November at the earliest. Yesterday at 6 a.m. it was 9 below in Island Pond. At the same time this morning, Island Pond was 21 degrees above zero.

Not exactly toasty but, ahhhhhhhh.

You will now see signs of spring coming pretty fast and furious. Vermont style spring. You know, mud, impassable dirt roads, scattered flooding, that kind of pleasant stuff.

Also, nicer stuff. People in the warmer valleys will start to see the first hints of crocus or daffodil shoots coming up in warm, protected corners in the next couple of days. Already, morning bird song sounds like spring. Red wing blackbirds are all over the place, so they're optimistic.

Now's the time, though to begin watching for flooding. Might happen, might not. At least the start of this melt season looks pretty orderly and calm, which is a good thing. Temperatures through Saturday will be above normal, but not be a huge amount, so it won't be a big rush of meltwater coming down.

It is going to rain off and on tonight through Sunday, with gaps of drier weather thrown in on Friday. The rainfall through Sunday won't be immense, with the National Weather Service suggesting a range from a half inch or a little less in the southeast to to an inch in the northwest.

Long range forecast for April 4-10 has decent
chances of above normal temperatures in most
of the nation, including us here in the Northeast.
We'll see! 

By Sunday, we will be at risk of some flooding in and around Vermont, especially where ice jams remain.

But this upcoming storm seems mediocre enough so that at this point, the risk of high water seems mediocre, too. My guess is the usual low spots might have water, but we won't exactly have a disaster.  

Keep an eye on it, though. If the rain is much heavier than forecast, then it could get messy.

The first half of next week looks mainly dry, too. We'll have to suffer through a quick shot of cold air Monday (highs in the 30s, lows in the teens and low 20s). It'll warm up quickly by Tuesday to near normal temperatures -- highs in the 40s to around 50.

By that time, there will still be quite a bit of snow in the high elevations, so the flood risk will continue if there are any big rain storms. It's too soon to say if that will be the case.

Cross your fingers, though. It looks like a generally mild pattern once we get into April, if admittably iffy long range forecasts are correct. So maybe no mid-April snow and ice storms this year, like we had in 2018?

That would be nice.

While Vermont Stayed Wintry; Parts Of Arctic Incredibly Spring Balmy

Temperatures in northern Alaska are likely to be a whopping
35 to 50 degrees above normal this week. While temperatures
normally hover near 0 this time of year in that region,
readings are likely to get above freezing. 

It was another truly wintry morning around Vermont today. For the second day in a row, it was right around 9 below up in Island Pond. Lake Eden clocked in with 6 below.  Many Vermonters awoke to temperatures in the single digits above zero.

The good news for those who are winter-weary is that this will likely be the last time anyone in Vermont sees subzero temperatures until next November at the earliest.

The snow cover, deep in many areas, will begin to subside, starting today and continuing through the weekend amid thawing temperatures.

Despite the fact we will have a few wintry setbacks, spring is finally asserting itself in Vermont.

Meanwhile, it's been springlike up in parts of the Arctic all month. At least springlike by their standards. In parts of Alaska and northwestern Canada, this March will be far and away the warmest on record.

The ever-reliable Category 6 weather blog at Weather Underground has the rundown on this incredible Arctic "warmth."

Let's start with Utquiagvik, Alaska, formerly known as Barrow in the extreme northern tip of that state. The high temperature there yesterday was 32 degrees and the low, 17, which was almost exactly like the conditions we had here in Vermont on Tuesday. Seemingly not all that impressive.

But remember, this is the northern tip of Alaska. That 32 was record high for the date and Tuesday was 35 degrees warmer than normal in Utqiagvic. (Normal high there yesterday was minus 4, normal low, minus 17.

Utqiagvic is running 16 degrees above normal for March, and they are likely going to have the warmest March on record, and the first March with a mean temperature above zero, given the forecast of continued mild temperatures into early April.

It's not just Utqiagvic. Much of Alaska has been even hotter.  Kotzebue, Alaska, about 300 miles southwest to the former Barrow is having a March that will end more than 20 degrees warmer than average, and a record high. Thaws in Kotzebue are rare and brief in March, but each of the past five days there have gotten above freezing. (Normal high this time of year around Kotzebue is around 10 degrees).

There have been some incredible March record highs in Alaska, the Northwest Territories of Canada and far western Siberia. Sitka, Alaska,  reached 67 degrees this month.  Yohin Lake, Northwest Territories, Canada sits just 400 miles from the Arctic Circle and managed to hit an incredible 71 degrees a week or so back. At the hour it was that warm in Yohin Lake, it was a degree or two cooler than that in Miami, Florida.

Tofino, British Columbia reached 76 degrees, which is a March record and would have been the all-time hottest reading there in April, too.

The odd warmth in Alaska is due largely to an odd and strangely persistent weather pattern that has brought repeated bursts of air from the south to the region. Plus, the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the planet due to climate change.

Superimpose climate change on an odd, warm weather pattern and you really get some bizarre northern heat.

HOW IT AFFECTS US

If it seems this Arctic warmth is something that is happening too far away to affect many people and doesn't affect you at all, think again.

First of all, the lack of ice in the Bering Sea off western Alaska is having a wide range of effects. Ice usually prevents large storm waves from crashing ashore in western Alaska. With the lack of ice, the waves have been producing coastal flooding and erosion, notes the Anchorage Daily News. 

Nobody can go crabbing, fishing and walrus hunting either.

This weather pattern has certainly affected the United States. The big northward bulge in the jet stream has created a big dip downstream. That means cold air masses have been able to easily move south from Canada. Air that's really warm for the season north of the Arctic Circle is cold for the season by the time it heads south to places like, well, Vermont.

Which helps explain why the weather was basically the same yesterday in Vermont as it was way up in the northern tip of Alaska.

This warm Arctic spring is reason to worry about the extent of Arctic ice, too.

Overall, despite the tiny amounts of ice in the Bering Sea, overall Arctic ice extent did not set any record lows this winter, which is a good thing. The ice extent probably peaked around March 13 and it was tied for the seventh lowest in the past 40 years. Not a terrific thing, but at least the amounts of ice didn't crash this year.

This week, the odd heat has expanded to include almost all of the Arctic. This is almost certainly a temporary thing, but it does start off the melt season awfully fast. If the trend were to continue well into the summer, we'd be a risk of setting a new record for lowest ice extent.

That's just speculation at the moment, anything can happen with the pace of this year's melt. It all depends upon what the weather pattern is like when summer really hits in June, July and August.

But if the Arctic ice continues to diminish, it will help keep making the weather patterns weirder and more extreme in places where we live in the mid-latitudes.

GREENLAND GLACIER GROWS

A good example of how natural cycles are superimposed on a warming climate is at the Jakobshavn glacier in Greenland.

The glacier became something of a poster child for climate change back in 2014, when it rapidly began to lose mass. It stunned people watching the climate, as glaciers like Jakobshavn, when they melt fast, contribute to sea level rise.

Well, guess what? The Jakobshavn glacier is growing again. Adding ice. So, no worries about climate change right?  A Greenland glacier is actually growing!

Not so fast.

In the short term, the fact that Jakobshavn glacier is growing is a very good thing. It's not contributing to sea level rise, and is in fact slowing it by an imperceptible amount.

The glacier stopped shrinking and started expanding again because an ocean current bringing water to the spot where the glacier meets the ocean got much chillier starting around 2016.  The water there is the coldest it's been since the 1980s, as Marshall Shepherd notes in Forbes.

There's a natural pattern called the North Atlantic Oscillation that makes the North Atlantic flip between cold and warm once every five, ten, fifteen, twenty years - it depends.

It's in the cold phase, so that's helping the glacier grow. Which leads Shepherd to a great point in his Forbes article.  People who deny or are skeptical of climate change often say the climate changes naturally.

Climate scientist would respond by saying, Duh!  They all already know climate changes naturally. always changes.  As Shepherd writes:

"It's not 'either/or' with naturally-varying climate and human influences. it's 'and.''

Which is what we're seeing now with the Jakobshavn glacier, and the odd heat in Alaska.

Chances are, when the North Atlantic Oscillation flips again, that Jakobshavn glacier will begin to thaw again.

Selfish People Think It's OK To Let People DIe To Avoid Hail Dings On Their Cars

In this image from The Weather Channel, parked cars beneath an
Oklahoma overpass block traffic during a weekend hail storm. 

UPDATE:

Kudos to the Twittersphere, namely Becks DePodwin and Nevin deMelliano for pointing out that some insurance companies actually encourage people to park beneath overpasses when it hails.

Yes, as the discussion below shows, doing that endangers other people. But apparently as long as insurance companies don't have to file claims for their own customers, who cares if other people get hurt or killed?

It's all right there. Nationwide's web site tells people to "help protect your car by seeking shelter under an overpass or in a structure with a strong roof."

Not all insurance companies suggest this. Progressive, for instance, tells people who don't have garages or are worried about hail to temporarily stow their car in a covered parking garage at the local mall, which is reasonable enough. No mention of overpasses on the Progressive web site, though I would suggest a disclaimer NOT to do that.

This is an improvement over a couple years ago, when I reported in 2017 that Progressive advised people to stop beneath overpasses. From what I can tell, Progressive has mercifully dropped that advice.

Geico tells people to "pull over to the side of the road and wait out the storm." Fine, but people should pull over well off travel lanes.

The advice from Esurance is actually pretty good: "If you can, pull over into a covered parking area. Pull over to the side of the road (provided its safe to do so."  My quibble: Esurance should say that the "covered parking area" does not include overpasses.

Clearly, despite the advice of weather and severe storm safety experts for the past few decades, the public, insurance companies and others still need a lot more education on the folly of trying to avoid hail and other hazards beneath overpasses.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Cars block an underpass on a busy highway during a hailstorm
in this undated photo from Reuters. 

Some serious hail storms hit parts of Texas, Oklahoma and other places in the past few days severe thunderstorm season continues to ramp up.

Big hail causes a lot of damage, of course. I also get it that people don't want to get their cars all dented up by giant hail stones.

However, as usual, as we see every year, there are a number of thoughtless, selfish people who decide that the safety and lives of their fellow motorists are expendable if it means they can avoid a couple little hail dings on their cars.

So they park beneath overpasses. Which jams up the highways behind them.

 There's lots of "for instances." Like on Saturday, when parts of Interstate 44 in Oklahoma got jammed up because morons parked beneath bridges and overpasses during a hail storm.

There are so many reasons why parking beneath overpasses in hailstorms is is dangerous. Here are just a few:

1. Visibility is naturally very poor in a thunderstorm with heavy rain and large hail. People trying to manage driving through the hail and rain won't see the traffic jam until it's too late. This is a recipe for a deadly pileup.

2. Even while the hail is pounding down and you're beneath the overpass blocking traffic, the storm has probably already caused damage and maybe injuries up ahead. Emergency vehicles are already racing to the scene. And here the ambulances and firetrucks are coming up behind you and you're blocking their way.

Seconds count in emergencies. And you're wasting time by trying to keep a couple dings off your ride.

3. Thunderstorms with big hail often produce tornadoes. More often than not, as the tornadic thunderstorm approaches, the places affected first get a barrage of hail. Unseen through all this hail is the tornado. People sheltering beneath the overpass, and those trapped behind them, are sitting ducks for the tornado when it follows closely on the heels of the hail.

People are blocked in, so they can't flee the approaching tornado. So that's another way to kill people by parking beneath an overpass.

By the way, the myth still somehow exists that an overpass is a good place to shelter when a tornado approaches. The opposite is true. The structure of the overpass funnels strong winds, so the tornadic gusts are stronger beneath the overpass than elsewhere. Which means if you're sheltering there, you and your car will get blown way. Or sandblasted and impaled by debris. This will kill you. Or worse.

Andrew Pritchard (@skydrama) recently tweeted this recounting from the National Weather Service of people in Oklahoma who "sheltered" beneath an overpass as a strong tornado came in.  There were 12 people there. Only one died. Not so bad, right?

Here's a quote Pritchard repeated from a report of that 1999 tornado, which about what happened the remaining: "Unfortunately, what has not been well publicized is the horrific injuries suffered by all but one of the survivors under the bridge.......These injuries included but were not limited to compound fractures, shattered bones, missing fingers, missing ears, missing noses and being impaled by shingles, 2X4's etc."

So don't shelter under overpasses during severe weather. It's something out of a horror movie.

Not to mention the risk of killing others by stopping beneath these bridges. The 1999 bridge incident, described above was in part created by people stopping beneath that span. Some of the gruesome injuries were because people were blocking the road, and a quarter mile long traffic jam formed there as the EF-5 tornado passed over.

Even with that terrible story,  I know many of those entitled idiots will just flip me the bird and continue to stop at underpasses, not giving a damn if they hurt or kill others.  However, these tips are also great for those of us who want to do the right thing and not hog an overpass.

1. Pay attention to forecasts. If there's alerts, and especially if there's severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings, postpone driving if possible until the threat is over.

2. Watch the skies. If you see what looks like a bad thunderstorm a few miles up ahead, see if you can take the next exit and wait out the storm in a substantial shelter.  One sign that the thunderstorm up ahead might contain a lot of hail is if the storm clouds have a green or blue tint.

3. If caught driving in a hailstorm, slow down and put your blinkers on. By all means do NOT stop under that overpass. It's unsafe to pull to the side of a busy highway, too. But if conditions are so serious you can't see what you're doing, or if the hail breaks your windshield, definitely pull over as far off the roadway as possible. Also, do everything you can to protect your eyes if the car glass is breaking.

4. Remember, it's just a car. Insurance almost always covers the hail damage. Better to ding up your car than kill someone by blocking the highway.

We here in Vermont don't have giant hail or tornadoes as frequently as other places in the nation. But it can still happen. Plus, you might be driving somewhere else when this kind of weather happens.

Please don't be a jerk, and kill or hurt someone by parking beneath an overpass. I do think there's sometimes such a a thing as karma. If you look at it that way, the life you save might be your own.

Here's a harrowing video taken several years ago after an Oklahoma tornado hit an overpass where cars had parked beneath. One person died and several were injured:

Snow Obsession Waning, So Let's Look At Weather Disasters Elsewhere

Areas in purple can expect major spring flooding. Areas
in yellow and red can expect at least some flooding.

It's been all snow all the time in this weather blog thingy for the past few days so it's time to move on.  At least for now.

While we have been suffering from our snow blindness, other weather events and disasters have been continuing apace worldwide. Time for a news update on those. Let's start in the Good Ole US of A.

MIDWEST FLOODING

The flood disaster in Nebraska and many other states that started earlier this month has not gone away.

True, it hasn't rained all that much in the middle of the country since that "bomb cyclone" initiated the worst of the flooding a couple weeks ago.

However, no rain is needed at the moment to keep this disaster going.  The spring snow melt is on, feeding more water into dozens upon dozens of already flooding rivers.

Where snow is still melting in Montana, the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and elsewhere, high temperatures this week, depending on where you are in the region, will be somewhere between the 40s and 60s, ensuring a steady supply of water.

The flooding, with its epicenter in Nebraska and extending across at least seven states, has already caused an estimated $3 billion, with a "B" in damage, so this is an immense calamity. In farm country that has already flooded, farmers won't be able to plant this year, so the expense of this will keep going up, even if there's no new flooding.

There is going to be new flooding. Last Thursday, NOAA released its latest spring flood outlook and the news from that was all bad.  Basically, the report says already terrible conditions will get worse and stay really, really bad at least into May.

In a statement, Ed Clark, director or NOAA's National Water Center in Tuscaloosa Alabama, had this to say: "The extensive flooding we've seen in the past two weeks will continue through May and become more dire and may be exacerbated in the coming weeks as the water flows downstream....This is shaping up to be a potentially unprecedented flood season, with more than 200 million people at risk for flooding in their communities."

The flood outlook predicts continued major flooding in the states that are already experiencing it. The major flooding will also continue along the length of the Mississippi River, and much of the Missouri River.

The Mississippi River flooding is expected to continue into the summer.

(As an aside, NOAA's spring flood outlook shows a somewhat lesser, but still real flood risk in the coming weeks here in Vermont.)

CYCLONE IDAI IN AFRICA

Destruction from Cylone Idai in Africa. Photo by Wiklus de Wet
AFP/Getty Images

Last week, I mentioned the death and destruction from Cyclone Idai in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi.  I have bad news on this front, too: Things are getting even worse there.

The latest death toll has climbed to at least 750, and that is likely to continue rising. More than 110,000 are in temporary camps, disease is likely to spread and many areas remain flooded.

Aid workers are scrambling to distribute food, and get water and electric systems up and running.  But it's a tough slog, and this cyclone will continue to cause a lot of suffering for a long time.

CYCLONES IN AUSTRALIA

Two cyclones hit Australia within 48 hours of each other in the past week. (Note that cyclones are the name for hurricanes in many parts of the world, including Africa and Australia.)

Cyclone Trevor came first, hitting a relatively remote areas of northern Australia, making landfall with top winds of 155 mph, so this was a big one. People along the coast where the storm hit were evacuated ahead of it, which definitely minimized casualties.

Next up was Cyclone Veronica, which hit the west coast of Australia Sunday. It was a Category 3 storm with winds of more than 100 mph.  Extensive flooding is likely.

Final Look At Vermont Snowstorm. And Yes, A Little More Snow This Evening

Quite a winter wonderland in my St. Albans, Vermont yard this morning
despite the fact it is March 24 - technically spring

It's painfully bright outside my St. Albans, Vermont home this morning. There's blue sky and bright sunshine. The fresh snow being hit by the high angle spring sunshine is blinding. (It will cloud up later, so the eyes will get a break. Meanwhile, sunglasses rule.)

We're not entirely done with the snow this weekend yet, believe it or not. No, there's no new big snowstorm coming, at least in the immediate future. But a strong cold front coming through tonight will drop at least a little more snow.  

MORE SNOWFALL TONIGHT EXPLAINED

Though the cold front is strong, the good news is it's starved for moisture. So nobody is going to get another foot or two of snow. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington is saying most places in northern Vermont will get an inch or snow or less out of this cold front. Some mountainous areas could pick up a couple inches.

That forecast looks like it will be accurate. However:

Much like this big snowstorm we had Friday turned out to be a big overachiever, there is some evidence this evening's cold front could also give some of us a snowy surprise or two.

As I said, the cold front is pretty strong. It will be moving into some pretty unstable air. This combination could really kick off some heavy snow showers or even squalls, despite the relative lack of moisture in the air.

Jackson the Weather Dog appears to be trying to measure the
water equivalent of the wet snow in his St. Albans, Vermont
driveway this morning. 

Some of us, especially in the northern half of the state, could get some bursts of heavy snow. That would quickly mess up the roads with ice and poor visibility.

It could also lead to some surprising accumulations. I'm quite sure the NWS meteorologists who are way, way more skilled than me, are right that most of us will only get an inch or two of snow, or even less.

But there is the potential that a few places in the North could pick up several inches of snow if any of the squalls end up moving sluggishly.

This kind of thing happened on the night of March 16 when a few places in the northern mountains and the Northeast Kingdom picked up a half foot or more of snow. I'm not saying that will exactly happen again, but, again, some people might have some surprise shoveling to do again.

The snow will tend to diminish in intensity as it heads south over Vermont overnight, so southern areas will get little or no snow.

A MELTDOWN COMING?

If you're sick of snow, and my raising the possibility of more snow tonight has depressed you, now I have something a bit uplifting.

After tonight, it looks like there will be no precipitation through at least Friday. Starting Monday, each day at least through Thursday will be sunny to, at worst, partly sunny.  It will start off cold Monday and Tuesday, with high temperatures staying in mid and upper 20s in cold northern areas, to low to mid 30s for most of us, to upper 30s in the warmer valleys, especially south.

That will allow winter sports enthusiasts to continue enjoying all this snow. Plus the strong late March sunshine will erode the snow in sunny corners on both those days. That will give us hope.

Then it will start to warm up. Quite a few 40s will pop up Wednesday with a good shot of 50s by the end of the week. So places with little snow on the ground will have bare ground again by the end of the week. And in snowy low and mid Vermont elevations, the snow cover will take a hit.

No rain is in the forecast through Friday night at the earliest, so in the short term, the meltdown won't cause any real flooding problems. Even as temperatures are expected to stay near or above freezing, even at night Thursday and Friday nights.

No promises on flood threats after that. It all depends on rain and melt patterns and paces.

IMPRESSIVE SNOW STATS

Hmmm. No signs of daffodils in front of my St. Albans, Vermont
house this morning, despite the fact that is is technically spring.

Snow stats are impressive right now in some spots for the end of March.  In some high elevation towns, the snow cover is deep, deep, deep.

Averill, Vermont, way up there in the Northeast Kingdom, had a four feet of snow on the ground as of Saturday morning.

Some other towns in the Northeast Kingdom had at least three feet of snow on the ground. The snow depth atop Mount Mansfield had exceeded 10 feet by the time the snow stop flying Saturday.

Seasonal snowfall for the winter of 2018-19 is now up to 101.8 inches in Burlington, which is the 12th snowiest on records dating back to the 1880s. We could move up in those rankings, because it usually snows at least a little in April. Just sayin.

At least I'm pretty sure Burlington won't have the snowiest winter on record. That was 145.4 inches in 1970-71. At least I HOPE we don't get another nearly four feet of snow before the season finally wraps up.

Depending on where you are in Vermont, it looks like different seasons. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington received 6.7 inches of snow out of the storm. But along the Lake Champlain shoreline in Burlington, accumulations were closer to three inches.

By the end of the day Saturday, the March sun had melted some of that snow. There were big bare patches already, and it really did look like March.

Meanwhile, in harder hit places, like my place in St. Albans well east of Lake Champlain, that foot of snow we received still had me in a deep winter wonderland by the end of the day Saturday.

I whined about the snow, but it could be worse.

I talked via phone with a customer at work yesterday in South Lake Tahoe who reported there was still nearly six feet of snow on the ground outside her home.

The Mammoth Mountain Ski Area in California has had 648 inches of snow so far this winter. That's 54 FEET of snow. 

The deep Sierra snow is good news for Californians who want a water supply for the rest of the year. The snowmelt will feed reservoirs during much of 2019.

During the height of the California drought, water managers saw unprecedented bare ground this time of year at a high Sierra measuring site. This year, on about the same date as the 2015 measurement, they found 113 inches of snow on the ground, or about nine and a half feet of snow. That snow had the equivalent o 43.5 inches of rain in it, so there will be plenty of water coming from the Sierra this spring and summer.

Huge, Wet Vermont Snowstorm To Bring Arduous Cleanup, Increases Flood Threat

Here we go again. Digging out from another foot of wet, heavy snow
in St. Albans, Vermont. Seems that's all I ever do with my life in
the past couple years - just constantly dig out from giant,
 wet cemet snowstorms 

UPDATE 9 a.m. SATURDAY:

Some really spectacular snow totals have come in to the National Weather Service in Burlington as of 9 a.m.:

26 inches new was reported in Morgan, 25 inches in Lyndonville, 24 inches Danville and Walden.

There's lots of reports of 12-20 inches of new snow.

The high water content of this snow really makes this in many parts of Vermont one of the most significant late season snows on record.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

The big snowstorm in Vermont will mercifully end today, but the heavy, wet snow will be backbreaking to clean up especially areas away from the deepest valleys.

Many of us, including me here in St. Albans, Vermont, got at least a foot of snow.

As of 5:30 a.m. it was an even foot deep at my house, on a hill away from Lake Champlain in St. Albans. And it was still snowing.

Which means the never-ending winter, when a snow cover was established in early to mid November, will go on for weeks more, as it will take a long time for this to melt.

As of early morning, no new summaries had come out yet of storm totals in Vermont since last evening. I'm sure there will be some pretty amazing numbers in the mountains. As of last evening, there had already been 18 inches of new snow in East Kirby, Cabot and Walden, Vermont.

More than a foot had fallen by 7 p.m. last evening in many towns at elevations of above 1,000 feet in northern Vermont. In many of those towns, it kept snowing all night. More than 2,000 people remained without power early this morning, mostly in northwestern Vermont where the snow really hit overnight.

Roadways, needless to say, are very bad in areas where it's still snowing. The western slopes of the Green Mountains and eastern parts of Franklin, Chittenden and Addison counties are particularly bad.

Very little of the snow will melt this afternoon, as it will stay cold even as the sun comes out. A brief thaw tomorrow won't get rid of much, and then it will be wintry cold again Monday, Tuesday and into Wednesday before it finally warms up.

Which brings us to something I alluded to as the storm began.  A flood threat. Warmer air will finally, at least temporarily reach us late in the week.  If the warmth lasts and increases, and then it rains, it will be real trouble.

This storm had a LOT of what would have been rain with it. Most places in Vermont got more than the equivalent of an inch of rain. Some places got the equivalent of two inches. As I mentioned on Thursday, there was already four to eight inches of rain locked in the snow pack at mid and higher elevations in and around Vermont, and up to ten inches of "rain" on the peaks.

This storm added one to as much as three inches of "rain" to the snow pack that will eventually have to melt. In the warmer valleys where rain fell during the first half of the storm, the downpours soaked the ground even more and created some runoff.

The bright side is after today there will be very little precipitation in Vermont through this coming Friday, but then, not much of the snow will have melted by then, especially in mid and high elevations.

If April turns out to be warm, stormy and wet, there is definitely the risk of at least some flooding. A worst case scenario is a storm in early to mid April that brings a surge of very warm, moist air and one to three inches of rain would cause serious flooding.

I don't see anything like that in the cards now, which is good. And, if we get an orderly melt, with lots of dry days, warm afternoons and chilly nights - perfect for surgaring - things won't be that bad at all.

Lake Champlain's level is already a little above normal - right around 97 feet above sea level as of yesterday.  Minor flood stage is 100 feet.

I'm almost sure the lake will reach minor flood stage. Just over 100 feet will cause minor beach erosion and flood the lowest lying shoreline places, like Perkins Pier in Burlington. However, a minor spring flood on Lake Champlain is actually a good thing. It's a natural cycle that keeps the ecosystem healthy.

If Lake Champlain flooding reaches 101 feet you start to get some real shoreline damage. I see that as possible this year but at this point rather unlikely.

We are also NOT in the same situation as 2011, when Lake Champlain eventually rose to a record crest of around 103 feet above sea level, causing millions of dollars in flood damage. Unless there is incredible, record rainfall between now and mid-May, we won't get close to that level of disaster.

I just don't see that happening.

In the meantime, for those of us who got clobbered by this storm, happy digging!

Yet Another Overperforming Snowstorm Socking Vermont, Surrounding Areas

A long line of cars slogs through heavy, wet snow at Exit 19 of
Interstate 89 in St. Albans late this afternoon. 

Well, this is certainly turning into a doozy of a snowstorm for Vermont and adjacent areas, isn't it.

The first half of the storm, roughly into early afternoon, really hit east facing slopes of the Green Mountains.

Some areas definitely got more snow than expected. Some examples: Marshfield reported 16 inches, Walden, 15 inches, Moretown, 14 inches.

That's a lot of snow.

While it is still snowing along those eastern slopes, it's coming down lighter now. And it probably won't get particularly heavy in those places overnight.

There will be more accumulation there, but it won't pile up nearly as fast as it did earlier today.  The mountain summits, which got tons of snow the first half of today, will continue to pile it up fast, so we'll see some pretty amazing totals up there.

We're now in the second half of the snowstorm,  The wind has shifted and increased from the north and northwest, so it's the western slopes of the Green Mountains that are getting clobbered. Road conditions deteriorated fast late this afternoon in the Champlain Valley as the snow finally started to accumulate.

For several hours at least this evening, the snow will come down at a good clip even in the Champlain Valley. Elevation will still be a factor:

Forecasters think totals will range from as little as three inches along the immediate shore of Lake Champlain, to six inches or so a few hundred feet higher in elevation and a few miles inland from the lake, to a foot or more along the western slopes well east of Burlington -- towns like Underhill, Jericho, Huntington, Bakersfield, East Enosburg, all those types of places.

These are storm totals, taking into account what already fell plus what's expected to accumulate.

Who knows, the way this storm has been behaving, there might be more surprises with even deeper snow in these communities. After all, right along the western slopes, most forecasters think the snow will keep going into Saturday morning.

Winter storm warning have been extended westward to include all of Franklin and Chittenden Counties.

Basically, don't travel anywhere tonight. Also postpone travel until Saturday afternoon, when things will have definitely improved.

It's been bad enough all day. NECN reports roughly 100 crashes and slide offs in Vermont during the day. This includes a fatal crash on Vermont 22A and several multi-vehicle pileups. Interstate 89 near Montpelier was impassable for a time due to crashes.

Power failures with the heavy, wet snow have been a problem in some areas all day. At last check, around 6 p.m. there were about 1,250 homes and businessses without power across Vermont.

I have a feeling these numbers will go up through the evening as the heavy wet snow really starts to pile up in populated areas of Franklin, Chittenden and Addison counties. Gusty winds now blowing aren't helping. If anything, those winds will increase overnight.

At least the snow will turn more powdery as we go through the night, so the chances of further heavy, wet accumulations will go down.

It's still supposed to be cold Saturday. After a mild-ish Sunday, it will be cold again Monday and Tuesday. The late week still promises to turn at least somewhat warmer. Long range forecasts are iffy, but many forecasters are dangling the prospect of highs in the 50s a week from today.

I'll believe it when I see it.

Vermont Snow Really Piling Up On Hills. Deeper Valleys Not So Much -- Yet

Not as much snow in many Vermont valleys as feared this morning,
but the snow is on the way. Updated National Weather Service
forecast map still shows more than six inches coming in the
yellow and orange areas, three to five inches, generally in
the blue. Snow accumulations still look really dependent on elevations

1 p.m. FRIDAY STORM UPDATE

So far today, the snowstorm is behaving largely as expected, although there are some picky details that are altering things a bit.

As expected, the lowest elevations are getting a rain/snow mix. Web cams in the Champlain Valley, for instance, show little if any accumulation.

Go up just a couple hundred feet in elevation, and it's sticking.

Run uphill another couple, or few hundred feet, and the snow is sticking to the roads. Web cams out of Berlin, Vermont showed a snow covered, slippery Interstate 89 at that relatively high elevation.

The web cams also show sagging trees under the weight of the heavy, wet snow, so it looks like power failures will be an increasing problem as we go through the day into tonight.  We were closing in on 3,000 outages or so as of shortly before 1 p.m. in Vermont.

Those outages will spread to new areas as it gets colder later today and this evening. Rain/snow mixes in the lowlands will change to all snow, and the trees and lines will get weighted down there, as well.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington added Washington and Caledonia counties to the winter storm warning, as more snow than expected seems to be coming down in those areas. Especially in the higher elevations.

There's already some relatively impressive snow totals out there so far in the mid and high elevations. By noon, Cabot had accumulated nine inches, and Middlesex had eight inches. Lots of places had two to five inches.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Storms like the one currently harassing us Vermonters have a high bust potential, as noted yesterday, and here we go with that.

The good news for most of us who have to get to work is, this Friday morning isn't nearly as bad as we thought it would be last night.

Even so, the precipitation became heavier just in time for this morning's rush hour. Which the National Weather Service in South Burlington said would happen.

So road conditions did deteriorate as we were headed to work this morning. On my trip from St. Albans to Burlington at around 8 a.m., light rain had just changed to heavy wet snow, but the road wasn't snow or slush covered - yet.

The bad news (or more good news if you're a die-hard winter freak) is most of us still have a BUNCH of snow on the way.  Yes, even in the valleys.

Overnight and early this morning, it has been snowing in the mid and high elevations, while valleys have had a cold, light rain, or a mix of light, wet snow and rain.   As of 6 a.m. roads in the Champlai Valley were good, as temperatures hovered a few degrees above freezing. Elsewhere in Vermont, it depends on where you are. Roads are good to bad, depending on elevation.

The morning will continue with the mix of rain and snow, with all snow above 1,000 feet. You'll probably notice in the valleys that it will often be more likely rain when the precipitation is lighter, and snow when it gets heavier. That's the nature of the beast.

It now looks like the most "interesting" part of this storm comes in late this afternoon and tonight. The nor'easter will strengthen as it moves, well, northeastward into the Maine coast.

When this happens, there is often added lift, or rising motion in the air to the west of the storm. Rising air encourages precipitation, and we in Vermont will be west of the storm. So precipitation will start to come down more heavily later today. 


Wet snow falling in Winooski, Vermont this morning. It was warm
enough at the time that it was not sticking to the road.

At the same time, north winds will be strengthening as the storm deepens, and that will pull down some colder air from Canada. Everybody in Vermont and northern New York will transition to snow.

The mountains still look like they will get blasted. The western slopes of the Green Mountains, the summits, the Northeast Kingdom and parts of north-central Vermont north of Route 2 will get six to 12 inches, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.  All of those spots are still under a winter storm warning until noon Saturday.

The Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley of New York can also expect six to 12 inches. Some mountainous areas look like they will get as much as a foot and a half of snow, especially in the High Peaks of the Adirondacks and the ski areas and highest elevations in the northern half of Vermont.

Lower elevations, like the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys and maybe deeper river valleys like right along the Winooski River, will get three to eight inches of snow, says the NWS. Again, this will be really dependent on elevation, with amounts rapidly increasing the more uphill you go. All these areas are still under a winter weather advisory. 

Winds will really pick up by tonight, so the wet snow and the wind will weigh down trees and power lines. Expect at least some power outages across the state overnight and Saturday morning. There could be quite a few outages, if things get bad.  Gusts will reach 40 mph in many spots. Roads will be lousy overnight and Saturday morning.

Remember, wet snow on roads is even more slippery than the powdery stuff. Slush is deceptive. It's almost always is worse than it looks.

The snow will become more and more confined to the western slopes of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks during Saturday morning then finally taper off.

Some sun will appear in many areas during Saturday afternoon, but like I said yesterday, so what, it will still be wintry. Temperatures will make it into the low 30s at best in most locations, and that stiff north wind will continue.

Sunday still looks better, but that next Arctic front looks like it's moving a little faster. Clouds will creep in across the north after a sunny start Sunday, and there might be a light rain shower toward the end of the day as temperatures briefly make it into the 40s.

Monday and Tuesday still look miserably wintry, windy and cold with subfreezing highs and lows in the unseasonable single numbers and low teens. A temporary warming trend still looks to arrive during the second half of the week, and that will melt some of the new snow, at least in the valleys.

Thursday Evening Update: Fine Tuning Messy Vermont Winter Storm Forecast

The National Weather Service in South Burlington updated
their snow forecast map this afternoon. More of the area would
get more than six inches of snow than in the earlier map.
(Yellow is six inches of more. Dark orange and red is over a foot.
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, and surrounding NWS offices, have spent this cloudy Thursday afternoon fine-tuning their forecasts for this messy winter storm that's coming in later tonight. It will last into Saturday, with a lull of sorts Friday afternoon.

(Pardon any typos: I had to crank this one out fast because of a busy evening schedule.)

What follows is how the National Weather Service thinks this will play out. But remember, temperatures are marginal, so there is still a bust potential.

There might be more snow than expected, or less, depending upon if the temperature during much of this thing is a degree or two warmer or colder than expected.

The nor'easter was soaking New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland and environs with a soaking, flood-threat rain late this afternoon. The leading edge of the precipitation was also approaching southern Vermont around 4 p.m. today.

The precipitation will overspread the area tonight, and that's when it gets tricky. It'll be snow in the upper elevations. With that in mind, there's a winter storm warning for the entire Green Mountain chain, the Northeast Kingdom, parts of north-central Vermont and the Adirondacks.

Snow there late tonight and early Friday will come down hard, and the roads will get very nasty very fast. Elsewhere, it looks like a rain/snow mix, trending to snow in many areas early Friday morning.

When the precipitation comes down the hardest early Friday, that's when the first half of this one-two punch storm will most likely bring snow, even in the Champlain Valley. It's unclear if it will go to all snow or a mix everywhere in the Champlain Valley, but I'm thinking at least some accumulationg snow.

To be safe, expect a tricky Friday morning commute pretty much everywhere. Wouldn't you know, the worst and heaviest snow looks like it wants to come through perfectly for the morning commute.

There is a winter weather advisory for the valleys late tonight through Saturday to cover the periods of snow.

It looks like there will be something of a lull in the precipitation during the later morning and afternoon Friday. There still will be light rain and snow around. Some areas that will have had a burst of snow early Friday will go over to light rain, but the higher elevations will stay snow.

A second moderate to locally heavy precipitation will come in after dark Friday night and continue into Saturday. The mountains will continue to pick up snow. Pretty much everybody that will see some rain Friday will go over to snow.

As it looks now - again this could easily change - another one to three inches of snow could accumulate in the Champlain Valley with much more the higher up you go.  If you can postpone travel plans until Saturday afternoon, do that.

Total accumulations look like they will be really impressive in the northern and central Adirondacks with 12 to 18 inches expected. The high elevations of the Green Mountains, especialluy north, look to have something similar.

Mid elevations, including places like Montpelier, Barre, Morrisville and the valley floor in Stowe could get as much as four to eight inches out of this storm. The Champlain Valley perhaps will get two to six inches total, the most north toward St. Albans.

Much of this snow will be wet, and strong winds will develop, so there remains a risk of power failures with this.

Snow will taper off Saturday and some sun might break out in the mid and late afternoon. Don't expect much melting, though as temperatures stay at or below freezing for most of us with a gusty cold northwest wind.

Sunday looks awesome for winter sports with that fresh, deep snow cover in the mountains. Highs then will reach the 40s in the valleys and 30s in the mountains under sunny skies.

It still looks like more snow showers, then mid-winter cold Monday and Tuesday - highs below freezing again for most of us. A warming trend looks like it might start midweek. Fingers crossed!

Snowstorm On Track To Hit Vermont, Surrounding Areas, Especially Mountains

Once again, here's that ever-present snow forecast map from
the National Weather Service in South Burlington, VT.
Click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see.
Yellow areas are forecast to get at least six inches of new snow.
The darkest shades of orange and red could see a foot.
As always, this forecast is subject to change. 

It's been a fairly mild morning around much of Vermont. Here in St. Albans, Vermont it's been in the low 40s, the smell of mud and boiling maple sap is in the air.

Spring, right?

Not so fast. Yesterday, when I said there's a snowy interruption to spring, I meant it, and that forecast hasn't changed. Most of us should get ready for at least some snow between tonight and Saturday afternoon.

Some of us, especially if you're in the higher elevations, could get lots of it.

I'll go over expected amounts in a bit, but do understand there's an extremely high bust potential here. Temperatures through much of the storm, especially tonight and through the day Friday, will be marginal enough where it could go either way between rain and snow.

That means for most of Vermont outside the higher elevations, if it's just one to three degrees cooler than expected, we'll get a lot more snow than forecast. If it's a couple degrees warmer than forecast, there will be less snow.

On top of that, the second half of the storm will feature a windflow that will bring heavier snow to the western slopes of Green Mountains, the summits and a good part of the rest of northern Vermont north of Route 2, away from Lake Champlain and other deeper valley floors.

The end result will be a wide range of snow totals from this storm in Vermont, New York and New Hampshire. Here's the current thinking, with an enormous assist from the National Weather Service in South Burlington. 

For instance, we can probably expect anywhere from one to 20 inches of new snow, depending upon where you are in Vermont. OK, we should narrow that down.

The least amount of snow looks like it will be in the lower Connecticut River Valley below White River Junction. There, it will probably be two inches or less.

Almost everywhere else is a wildcard. If things go according to plan - and chances are they won't - the Champlain Valley and the lowlands of Rutland and Bennington Counties will get off with only maybe three inches of snow, give or take. (Again, a couple degrees colder and these areas get into the snowstorm game.)

The northern Champlain Valley, say around St. Albans, and north-central Vermont, say around Montpelier, Barre and Northfield are a real tossup. These communities might get as little as three inches of snow or as much as 10 inches.

In fact, different elevations in the same town will have wildly varying amounts of snow. I can see a possible scenario out of this where, for instance, St. Albans gets an inch of snow on the shore of St. Albans Bay and eight inches atop St. Albans Hill. That's a change in elevation of only about 800 feet.

The mountains, of course, will have mostly snow out of this. Some of the ski areas in central and northern Vermont could easily get a foot or more of snow.  The ski areas look like they will stay open a while longer, huh?

The Adirondacks will make out like a bandit with this storm, too. The way it looks now, many areas getting a solid foot of snow from this storm. Central New York could get six inches of wet snow, too. Coastal areas will get a quick bout of heavy rain. It was already raining hard in places like New Jersey this morning from this storm, and flood watches are up for that neck of the woods.

Back here in Vermont, the bulk of the snow will come down while temperatures are not far from 32 degrees. That means the snow will be wet and heavy.  That, combined with the fact winds will become strong from the northwest later Friday night and Saturday, raises the risk of power failures.

The snow will taper off Saturday, starting in southern valleys in the early morning and reaching the northern mountains by nightfall or thereabouts. It will be quite wintry Saturday, with snow showers for many areas, blowing snow and temperatures staying near or below freezing.

After a seasonable day Sunday (40s), it will get wintry cold again early next week with maybe an inch or two of new snow in spots Sunday night and Monday with the cold front. It might start to warm up again late next week. (I'll believe it when I see it.)

There does seem to be an increased risk of spring flooding in and around Vermont with this situation. True, there's not much snow left in the valleys, at least before this upcoming storm, but that's deceptive.

The snow is one to two feet deep in the mid-elevations. For example, Greensboro had 24 inches on the ground this morning and Waterbury had 20 inches. The amount of water locked in this snow is higher than you'd expect, with perhaps the equivalent of four to eight inches of rain. 

Go up in elevation just a bit further to 3,000 feet or so and there's the equivalent of 10 inches of rain that has to run down from the mountains. This storm will add to these totals, for sure.

The spring thaw is delayed further by the cold early next week. In a little more than a week, we'll be in to the very end of March and April will dawn. By then, there's the risk it could get quite warm. There could also be a nice big rain storm, who knows? If that happens, flooding would be a serious threat around the Green Mountain State.

That's by no means guaranteed, but it's something to watch.

Snowy Vermont Spring Setback Looking More Likely; NW, Alaska Heat Partly To Blame

A first look at expected snowfall Thursday night through Saturday.
Yellow and orange areas would get more than six inches of snow.
This is a preliminary forecast and WILL change. 

As of early Wednesday morning, things still looked like they were coming together for a snowy slap in the face, especially Friday night and into Saturday for Vermont and surrounding areas.

Oh, joy!  

Astronomical spring starts today and it will be deceptively benign, with highs in the 40s under quite a bit of sunshine, so not bad!

It's still looking like that nor'easter will get going after all, and with it, we'll get a big slug of precipitation. At least some of it will be snow.

Weather will deteriorate somewhat tomorrow, with clouds and a rising chance of rain showers in the afternoon.  Everybody except the highest mountain peaks should stay rain.

Thursday night and Friday, the main body of precipitation comes. Had this been mid-winter, everybody in Vermont would have gotten solid six to 12 inches of new snow out of this, with some places getting more.

But it's getting toward the end of March, and it's warmer. At least in the valleys, at least some rain looks likely. But this is tricky. A degree or two will make all the difference. Right now, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is going for mostly rain in the valleys Thursday night and Friday.

If that's true, valley dwellers won't see an enormous snowstorm, but could get several inches toward the end. More on that in a bit. If it turns out to be a few degrees colder than forecast, we could have a winter wonderland on our hands.

Early forecasts, which are totally subject to change, snow a most likely storm total of perhaps three inches in the Champlain Valley. A worst case scenario (with just a one in ten chance of this happening) would dump 10 inches of new snow on the Champlain Valley with even more in the mountains.)

All together now, Oh, Joy!

In the mountains, there will be more snow. It's hard to say at what elevation the rain/snow line will be. The very highest elevations will get a lot of snow. I have no idea yet about those of you who are not really in the valleys, but not really up at the tippy top of mountains either, stay tuned.

Colder air works in Friday night as the storm begins to depart, but the set up right now looks great for upslope snows.

That's when a departing storm wraps moisture in from the north and west, and strong winds go up and over the mountains. The western slopes and mountain peaks will get blasted with this. There's a good chance storm totals in some of the northern Green Mountains will go over a foot.

This is great news for late season skiers, but bad news for people worried about spring flooding. This storm will add to an already substantial snowpack up in the mountains. And this storm will further delay the spring melt.

Valleys, including the Champlain Valley, will share in this upslope snow Friday night and Saturday, too. There's the potential for several inches of snow, especially north of Burlington and away from the immediate lake shore.

After a brief warmup Sunday when temperatures are forecast to get up into the 40s, another cold front will give us more light snow, and more winter chill for the first half of next week.

Let's say it again: Oh, Joy!

By the way, this storm will bring heavy rain and strong winds to southern New England. It will be a little warmer in northern Maine than here during the bulk of the storm, so there is some risk of flooding up there.

NORTHWEST HEAT

A ridiculously resilient ridge of high pressure aloft has kept Alaska oddly warm all winter, and that is continuing now.

This ridge has been causing all sorts of havoc in the Lower 48 and is continuing to do so. Or at least contribute to it.

This ridge has fudged with the weather pattern for weeks. It's caused the jet stream to dive south into the northern Rockies and Plains, causing one of the coldest and Februaries on record in the northern half of the Plains and western Great Lakes.

That helped set the stage for the immense storm last week that unleashed a brutal blizzard on the high Plains, and more importantly the heavy rains last week that caused that huge flood in the central United States.

The ridge in Alaska was also one ingredient that caused the general storminess over the winter, especially late in the season, over much of the continental U.S.

That hot ridge in Alaska has sort of rejiggered itself a bit in recent days. Earlier in the winter, it fed cold air down into coastal British Columbia and Washington State, causing a lot of snow and cold weather in February, which was unusual in a normally mild climate.

This week, the ridge extended into those very same areas causing record warmth.

All-time record highs for the month of March have been set this week from Alaska to Washington. Here we go again with these bizarre extreme warm spells that have become so much more common than decades ago. (I can't prove the record highs I'm about to list are direct caused by climate change, but they are certainly consistent with what you'd expect from global warming.)

Sitka, Alaska reached 67 degrees Tuesday for a new March record high and the warmest temperature for any date between October 7 and April 16.  Eagle, Alaska, set a record high for the month of March with 55 degrees and Northway also set a March record of 50. High temperatures in those two towns are normally in the mid-20s this time of year, says the National Weather Service in Fairbanks, Alaska.

Tofino, British Columbia set a March record high of 74 degrees. Amazingly, that would also be the hottest temperature on record for that town for the month of April.

Further south, Seattle reached 79 degrees on Tuesday, its hottest March day on record. More record highs are anticipated for Seattle and environs today.

This ridge in the west this week has created a corresponding dip in the jet stream over the eastern United States. This dip is one important reason why we in Vermont appear as if we're going to get another snowfall Friday and Saturday.

One more time: Oh, Joy!