Not 100 Degrees, Here's Why (But Still Plenty Hot!)

It's still hot, so I'll try again to cool you off with a winter
photo of my St. Albans, Vermont driveway. 

Burlington, Vermont fell well short of the speculated 100 degree reading many of us were contemplating on Sunday.

Things have to line up just perfectly to reach the triple digits during Burlington heat waves and they assuredly did NOT line up correctly on Sunday.

It's only gotten to 100 degrees four times in the past 150 years or so in Burlington, so it's a pretty high bar to cross.

If the atmosphere is hot enough for 100 degrees, you're not actually going to get there in  Vermont unless you have full sunshine.  We didn't have that on Sunday

The writing almost seemed on the wall by early to mid morning Sunday.   A dying complex of shower and storms up in Quebec sent some clouds across the northern half of Vermont that didn't clear out unti mid-mid morning.

That delayed the days warming and put us behind schedule to reach that magic triple digit figure.

We had a few hours of full sunshine that brought temperatures up above 90 by shortly after noon.  However, a powerful line of thunderstorms in southern Ontario had blossomed and blew a veil of high, thin clouds our way, starting in the early afternoon.

The clouds dimmed the sun, preventing it from fully heating us.  Burlington "only" reached 95 degrees. It wasn't even quite the hottest day this summer, but it was pretty damn hot by anyone's standard

Burlington fell short of the record high for the date, which was 98 degrees. However, St. Johnsbury broke their record high, reaching 95 degrees besting the town's old record for the date of 93.  Montpelier tied its record high of 91, and Springfield in Vermont's southeast tied its record high of 92.

RAIN MOSTLY MISSES, AGAIN

It was interesting to see the Champlain Valley's 2020 anti-rain force field in action yesterday. That powerful line of storms in Ontario basically went "poof" on its way here.  In the tragic remnants of that line of storms, a new batch of storms formed in northwestern New York, prompting severe thunderstorm warnings in the Adirondacks.

That line fell apart on the way to the Champlain Valley so we only got light showers. More storms then redeveloped east of the Champlain Valley.

A small local downpour did go over my house early this morning.  I guess the anti-rain force field was taking a pre-dawn nap. Between light showers last evening and a 4 a.m. - ish  downpour, I collected a respectable 0.7 inches of rain in St. Albans.  Burlington could only muster 0.07 inches.

STILL A HOT SUMMER

We've got one more hot one to go today.  A cold front has gone through, but you wouldn't know it.  It's still hot and muggy.  There's a slight chance Burlington could reach 90 degrees again today, but it most likely will be well into the 80s instead.

Somewhat cooler, but still warmish weather will continue the rest of the week.

So far this summer in Burlington, it's gotten to at least 95 degrees six times.  The record for the most such days is nine, in 1944 followed by eight in 2018.

Burlington has had 14 days in which it got to 90 or better so far this year, The most in a single year is 26.

Sunday was the 24th consecutive day in which the temperature failed to drop below 60 degrees in Burlington. The record is 30 such days in 1988.  I don't think we'll break that record because I suspect we might have a couple days this week in which it'll go into the upper 50s at night.

For what they're worth, the long range forecasts don't really promise us any strong Canadian cold fronts anytime soon. The 8 to 14 day outlook calls for continued generally warmer than average weather for us into the first days of August.

Sunday's Squirt Of Hot Air Will Be Nasty

The middle of the nation is still broiling under a relentless heat wave, and a squirt of that very hot air looks like it will make it to Vermont on Sunday.    

The color shading on this map has most of New England outside of
Maine in the 95-100 degree range Sunday afternoon. Click on
the image to make it bigger and easier to see.  If you look
closely, this particular map has a foreast high of 99 degrees
in Burlington, Vermont. We shall see. 

The good news is the hot air will be flushed out by a cold front by Monday, though it won't exactly be "cold" behind said weather front. 

Temperatures here will remain above normal, but  not torrid, like the kind of weather expected in parts of the Plains and South, and below the Mason-Dixon Line along the East Coast.  

A warm front passed through yesterday, with disappointingly light showers in the morning.  We had a gorgeous evening, though, but the warm to hot air is now being established.  Today will be definitely on the warm side, with highs well into the 80s, with a few spot 90 degree readings in the warmer valleys.

Tonight, especially in the Champlain Valley where a south wind will prevent radiational cooling, it will be on the stuffy side.  I imagine the "low" temperature in Burlington tomorrow morning will be around 75 degrees or so.

All the ingredients are coming together for a very hot Sunday. Temperatures through a thick layer of the atmosphere will be at near record high values. 

For the Champlain Valley, the wind will be coming out of the southwest.  It'll come down the slope of the Adirondacks in that scenario.  Air flowing down the slopes of a mountain gets compressed, which heats it.  

As usual, the air column over us does get cooler with height.  But at around 8,000 feet overhead, says the National Weather Service there will be another layer of warm air which would prevent any cooling thunderstorms to develop on Sunday. 

If you want to cool off, here's a photo of cars stuck on the hill near
my St. Albans, Vermont house during a March, 2017 blizzard

Taken together, all this means an we should endure an expected high in the mid to upper 90s in the Champlain Valley on Sunday and highs of 88 to 95 in pretty much the rest of Vermont. 

One or two models or forecasts I've seen predict a high of 100 degrees in Burlington Sunday. I suppose that's possible, but I see it as pretty unlikely. 

To nobody's surprise, a big chunk of Vermont and surrounding areas is under a heat advisory on Sunday, so take it easy!  Do your outdoor work very early in the morning, and retreat to air conditioning if possible by afternoon.  Have your nice drinks of water or other refreshing non-alcoholic beverage handy, too.

I'm saying non-alcoholic, not because I'm on some sort of temperance movement. It's just that alcohol can exascerbate the effects of heat. 

The only saving grace regarding the heat tomorrow is that the air will mix in the lowest several thousand feet of the atmosphere. That will tend to lower the humidity just a bit for a time in the afternoon. And most of us will have a steady breeze, instead of having to endure still, hot air 

The record high in Burlington Sunday is 98 degrees set in 2013.  That's a pretty high record, so it will be tough to beat. Montpelier's record high for the date on Sunday is 92 degrees, so that one is in jeopardy. St. Johnsbury's record high is 95 degrees, so we'll see about that. 

That cold front is coming through later Sunday night or early Monday.  The timing is such that we probably won't see any severe thunderstorms with it.  Any rain that does fall Sunday night or early Monday will unfortunately be only scattered a brief.

A few spots might get a decent dousing from some embedded downpours, but this won't be any kind of widespread rain. 

Behind the cold front, it will be dry and only a little warmer than average for the first half of the week. Other weather disturbances give us a risk of some showers later in the week but temperatures will still remain mostly in the low 80s for highs.  So that's not terrible. 

Long, Drawn Out Vermont Hot Spell Starts Today

Blue skies as far as the eye could see yesterday in Vermont as
a spell of very warm weather starts. This is looking north from
St. Albans, Vermont. You can make out hills in the distance
near Montreal. 

In those relatively rare occasions when Vermont goes for days on end of very warm to hot often humid weather, these spells almost always wait until July and August to happen. June hot spells usually last a day or two, then fade away pretty quickly.

Not this time.

Starting today, we are in for an early version of a lenghty hot spell, one that could conceivably last until next Wednesday.

At first, the humidity won't feel too bad at all. Notice how refreshing it felt early this morning.  By this afternoon, most of us will be well into the 80s.

Humidity levels will slowly come up. By the weekend and early next week, it will feel quite oppressive.

All his is part of a larger weather pattern that will keep a very warm dome of air - a high pressure system - especially over much of New England and southeastern Canada.

Some record highs are possible in parts of northern Maine and southern Quebec.

Here in Vermont, it doesn't really look like we'll have record highs -- with daily daytime readings expected to be well into the 80s to around 90 through early next week. Forecast highs in Burlington, for instance are between 86 and 88 degrees today through next Tuesday.

The fact that it has been so dry will help afternoon temperatures get warmer than they otherwise would.

If there were a lot of ground moisture from heavy rains, that moisture would percolate into the atmosphere, making it even more humid, but suppressing temperatures a bit.  The pre-existing dryness will help boost temperatures.

The dryness will be an increasing problem for most of us during this spell of very warm weather.  Starting Friday, then ramping up a little bit over the weekend and early next week, the warm, humid air will help fire up some scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Most of these storms would be in the higher terrain. They'll be slow movers, so those lucky enough to get hit by one of these things will get some needed downpours. The trouble is, most of us will miss out, or get so little rain from the edges of these storms that it won't make a difference.

What I regard as a developing drought will only get worse during this hot spell.

It's unclear when any kind of cold front will sweep through with some refreshing air.  The best guess now is next Wednesday. If we're lucky, the cold front come come a day or so sooner than that. If we're unlucky, we'll need to wait until the end of next week to see any relief.

Hot Spell Will Feel Hotter Because We're Not Used To It

Lilacs in front of my St. Albams, Vermonnt house. Hot weather
is making them come and go too fast. 

There was definitely a vaguely humid feel to the air this morning in St. Albans, Vermont as we got off to the start of a three, or even possibly four day spell of toasty weather.

At this point, temperatures look like they will be at near record levels this afternoon and tomorrow, with highs reaching 90 degrees or maybe even a little above that in the warmer valleys and 80s elsewhere in Vermont.

The record high for today in Burlington is 92 degrees and the record high Wednesday is 91, so those will be challenged. The all time record high for the month of May is 93 degrees, set in 1977 and 2017. There's a low chance that could be tied or broken.

Yes, it will be humid during this, but not as humid as during the worst mid-summer heat waves. Dew points are a good measure of how muggy it feels. Today and tomorrow, dew points will be in the low 60s.

Anything over 60 starts to feel humid for most people. If the dew point were at 70 degrees, that's oppressive and awful.

Of course, us humans get accustomed a bit to a consistent type of weather. This will be our first hot spell, so it will probably feel worse than it actually is.  So if you're going to be outside working or playing, be doubly aware that you need to drink plenty of water and rest when you need to.

One bummer about the early season heat is that it makes flowers come and go so fast.  Apple blossoms appeared and disappeared behind my house in just four days because it was so warm. My lilacs were barely starting to blossom Friday. Now they're already in full flower and will probably fade away by the end of the week. Oh well.

Lakes, especially bigger ones like Lake Champlain, are still cold, so you want to be careful boating.  If you fall into the water, you're in trouble.  The water is so cold it's paralyzing, and you could drown quickly because of that.  Consider postponing that boating excursion until later in the summer. Or at least stay wicked close to shore.

The cold Lake Champlain water will have an interesting effect on local weather today and especially tomorrow.

The chilly water will generate lake breezes, so it will be much cooler on the immediate shore of the lake than inland just a bit.

The collision between the cool lake breezes and the hot air over land will essentially form boundaries, which are little weather fronts dividing the cool lake air and the hot land air.  These little "weather fronts" might create just enough lift to trigger widely scattered showers and thunderstorms near them.

This hot air is pretty unstable,  but there won't be a lot of lift in the atmosphere, so any storms will need a trigger, like those lake breeze boundaries. Once these thunderstorms get going, there's a slight chance one or two of them will get strong.

But they won't last long, and the vast majority of us won't see these thunderstorms. But they are another hazard to watch out for if you're near the lake.

Chances for showers and storms increase late in the week, especially on Friday as a cold front approaches. It will remain warm and humid both days, but there's a lesser chance of either day making it to 90 degrees.

A relatively brief shot of unusually chilly air will come in for the the last day of the month Sunday, and the first couple of days of June.  It' might actually be cold enough for frosts in the colder valleys Monday morning, so if you're considering putting in your tomatoes in the cold spots, I'd wait a bit until we see how that upcoming cool spell plays out.