You Know The Drill: Icy, Icky Vermont Weekend

Another icy, yucky weekend in Vermont.  Not as much as in this photo
from January 12, but still the risk of icy roads, sidewalks, etc. 

True to form for this winter: It's another weekend, and we have another not huge but still icky storm to deal with.

Unlike last weekend, when we were treated to just snow, which was nice, this one is still looking to be a mostly schmutz event.

So we go through this drill again. We watch out for icy roads, and we have to pick our way gingerly over frozen, slippery sidewalks. Some spots are just wet and fine, then you find an icy patch and down you go.  

Temperatures for this entire storm statewide are going to be pretty close to the freezing mark. With some warm air coming in aloft, that means rain, freezing rain and a little sleet for just about everyone, starting this afternoon.

Areas outside the broader valleys in Vermont are most likely to get the ice.  Accordingly, a winter weather advisory is up for everybody in the Green Mountain State except those in the Champlain Valley, western Rutland County and the lower Connecticut River Valley.

Ice accumulations won't be extreme, so we're not looking at a lot of tree or power line damage, but the roads will be lousy this afternoon and tonight.

In those warmer valleys, it will be mostly rain with a huge caveat.  It's January. The ground is cold. Even if temperatures are a little above freezing while it's raining, that rain will freeze on untreated surfaces. You know, driveways, back roads, parking lots and sidewalks. You'll still want to be cautious as this mess goes through today and overnight.

Here's an added bonus for this lousy weather for those of you who live along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. Strong downslope winds will develop this afternoon and tonight, and there might be a few gusts over 40 mph or even above that in these spots.

Despite all the rain and freezing rain in the forecast, it won't be enough to cause any flooding. Some rivers might to up a little. But the rain won't come down nearly as hard as it did during the January 11 storm, and it won't be warm enough to rapidly melt snow. So we're OK there.

Now the usual caveat: As I said, temperatures will be close to 32 degrees during this. If it's only a degree or two colder or warmer in any one location than anticipated, it will be either much icier or just wetter. As they say, results may vary.

Late tonight or early tomorrow morning, the precipitation will turn lighter and more showery.  Colder air aloft will move in during the day Sunday, but it won't translate down to the surface much. That means mid and high elevations can expect a couple inches of snow during the day Sunday, but valleys will get just wet snowflakes maybe mixed with some rain drops.

Everyone will get into the snow showers Sunday night, but accumulations won't add up to all that much.

Most of the upcoming week looks like it will be mostly dry with seasonably cold temperatures.  It's looking like a fairly good bet that next weekend will bring another storm, but nobody has any idea yet what kind of storm it will be, or how strong it will get.

New Year's Eve Road Alert, And New England's Weirdest Winter Storm

National Weather Service map from Monday afternoon shows a bizarre
combinayion of a ice storm warnings (in purple) and a severe thunderstorm
warning (in orange).  Usually these two warnings are in different
seasons, not together on the same day/

Hi, I'm back after a one day hiatus in which I was traveling from the blizzardy snows of South Dakota toward the very weird storminess over New England on Monday.

And what a strange storm it was!  I don't see anything the record books in which a nasty winter storm of snow, freezing rain, sleet and wind combined simultaneously with severe thunderstorms with damaging hail.

That was the situation in New England yesterday, folks!  There's a couple videos at the bottom of this post.

I'll get into more of that in a minute, but first, we're not even quite done with the storm yet.

This thing was a sprawling mess which kept sprouting new centers and new bouts of rough weather from California to Maine.

The last of these storms is near Downeast Maine, and is dumping heavy snow on the northern and western parts of that state.

It's a remnant piece of a previous part of this storm that we Vermonters have to worry about today and tonight.  In case you haven't noticed, it's pretty mild out there this New Year's Eve.

In many, but not all Vermont valley locations, yesterday's ice is melting off the trees. That's a good thing, as you don't want to have the branches weighed down by the ice and risk more tree and power line damage.

One reason it's mild out is there is a cold front of sorts attached to that remnant piece of the storm near the eastern Great Lakes.

This sort of cold front has a lot of energy with it.  There was even more lightning to report this morning in Ohio.  This front will generate some heavy snow showers as it approaches tonight.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says the timing suggests that the heavier snow showers will come through northern New York between 4 and 8 p.m. today. They'll get into the Champlain Valley between about 7 and 10 p.m. and into the eastern half of Vermont between 9 p.m. and midnight.

This obviously means trouble for people out partying for New Year's Eve. A quick one to three inches of snow, combined with some wind, will sharply reduce the visibility on the roads, and get them slippery fast.

Probably more important is the temperature. When temperatures are near the freezing mark in this snow squally situation, it's a lot worse on the roads than if readings were far below 32 degrees. In very cold weather, a lot of the snow just blows off the roads. It does compact into some ice, but it's not too, too bad when it's super cold.

However, when the temperature is warmish, like today and this evening, water on the road freezes as the temperatures fall during the onset of the snow.  The snow will be relatively wet. Wet snow compacts into thick layers of slippery ice beneath car tires. There will still be a little water on top of all this mess, which makes things even more slick.

Arrived home from a trip to find the trees in my St. Albans, Vermont\
yard were mercifully not too weighed down by ice from Monday's storm.

Combine this with drunk drivers on New Year's Eve and you have a real mess on your hand. I get it that I'm being a New Year's Eve Debbie Downer with this news. But it's all in an effort to help you plan ahead.  

Or stay home. That's what me and my husband Jeff do every New Year's Eve.  Tonight is amateur hour. It's more fun to sip Champagne at home.

In any event, this snow tonight is good news for the ski areas. It'll be kinda powdery up there. Groomers can mix this in with the slop from yesterday, leaving the slopes in pretty good shape for welcoming 2020 with some skiing and riding

MONDAY'S WEIRDNESS

Monday wasn't the first time there's been lightning and thunder during a New England ice storm.  But these were definitely the strongest storms I and anyone else has seen with an ice storm.   For those of you in northern and central Vermont who wonder what I'm talking about, the thundersleet storms passed well south of you.

A New England ice storm is often a recipe for some thunder.  Usually, an ice storm features a very strong punch of very warm air from the south coming into New England several thousand feet overhead.

Meanwhile, low level cold air drains in from Quebec. Rain from the overhead warm air freezes on the way down to form sleet, or freezes on contact with the ground to accumulate some dangerous ice. This is exactly the situation New England faced on Monday.

This warm air above can be quite unstable and create elevated thunderstorms that form above the temperature inversion that is keeping the cold air locked in at the surface. For instance, there were thunderstorms in Vermont during the Great Ice Storm of 1998.

On Monday, the storms turned out to be quite strong, and formed into a system we normally and often see during severe thunderstorm outbreaks in the summer.

One thunderstorm formed ahead of the main line of storms and went through western and central Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut.  This storm very much resembled a supercell thunderstorms, the kind that can produce large hail and even tornadoes.

Supercells usually form ahead of the main band of storms that form along a squall line or ahead of a cold front. That's how Monday's initial storm behaved. It probably was technically a supercell, since it was rotating and had a radar presentation that resembled a supercell.

Because the storm was elevated above the cold layer near the surface, it would have never been able to spin down a tornado toward the ground. (The rotation with this storm was insufficient to produce a tornado even if that low level cold air wasn't around.)

However, supercells and that type of storm that formed Monday in central New England can produce large hail and this one certainly did. Rising and falling air currents in the storm grabbed raindrops and sleet pellets and formed large hail stones.

Some of the hail stones were an inch or more in diameter, as big or bigger than quarters and enough to dent vehicles. Certainly, these were the biggest hailstones on record for December in New England.

The main line of thunderstorms came through later, dumping more hail, and triggering more lightning and thunder across much of southern and central New England. Some of storms extended into southern Vermont.

On top of all this, the freezing rain was bringing down trees and power lines in the Adirondacks, southern Vermont and New Hampshire and much of Massachusetts.

Most, but not all of the power is back on in New England and New York as of early this afternoon.

Videos:

Security cameras caught the noisy thundersleet and large hail in Westfield, Massachusettts. And also the reaction from a stunned occupant of the building:



The freezing rain affected Ontario, Canada, too, as this enthusiastic motorist tells and shows us:

Sunday Vermont Storm Update: Still Oddly Uncertain

The latest snow accumulation map looks light, but looks are deceiving.
Those expected three or four inch totals in the eastern half of
Vermont for today involve heavy, wet snow, sleet and
freezing rain. It could be enough to trigger scattered power failures.

As precipitation began moving into southern Vermont this Sunday morning, there were still a lot of question marks as to how this storm would behave.

We knew this would be a hard storm to forecast, but this is ridiculous.

I'm not faulting meteorologists who are monitoring the storm. I'm faulting the storm, which is a supremely tricky one to forecast.

Overall, forecasts have cut back since yesterday on expected accumulations. A winter weather advisory is up south and east of very roughly a Middlebury to Newport line in Vermont today.

Precipitation types will be tricky in the advisory area.  It seems like there might be a little more sleet and freezing rain thrown in than earlier expected. With temperatures expected to be near or just a smidge above freezing in most spots, exactly what will fall from the sky today is questionable. Expect surprises.

There's still going to be wet snow in this zone, too, especially this afternoon, when winds turn a bit more northerly, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington. Those under the winter weather advisory should get three to five inches of wet snow, sleet and ice, which is enough to cause some scattered power failures.

Further north and west, in the Champlain Valley, the forecast is equally tricky, though we know precipitation will be lighter there.  The questions are: Will the moisture streaming in from the storm be enough to overcome the dry air in place? Or will much of the oncoming precipitation dry up before it gets here.

The current forecasts call for an inch or two of schmutz in the Champlain Valley today, with a mix of rain, sleet and wet snow expected. It's not a huge storm here at all, but could cause some travel issues, and make Sunday afternoon a good time to stay indoors and watch football or something.

Things clear out tonight. We'll actually get a couple days of relatively mild weather (highs in the 40s) before winter returns with a windy rain storm, and an even windier and much colder Thanksgiving.  Rapidly falling temperatures and numerous snow showers on Thanksgiving will make the roads iffy, too. Oh, joy!

Vermont's Icy Morning: Schools Closed, Slip Sliding Away, Cabin Fever Ensues

A view of my driveway in St. Albans, Vermont, which was a skating
rink this morning. If the photo seems blurry, it's because I was
also clinging desperately to the back of my truck at the time to
avoid sliding downhill and falling. 

Boy, it is quite a mess out there in Vermont this morning, proving that it doesn't take a lot of freezing rain to shut things down.

As expected,  light freezing rain fell across most of the state overnight. It lasted a bit longer into the morning than expected.

As of 9:30 a.m., a change to snow was slowly moving south to north across Vermont, but the damage is done. Most Vermont schools are closed, as districts didn't want to take a chance on that glare, smooth ice.

The main roads have been treated, so they're probably not the worst they can be. Side roads and sidewalks? Fughettabout it!!!

All I know is I can't even get to my truck to scrape the ice off it. It's parked on a slight incline in my driveway and when I try to gingerly walk out to the truck, I slide right by.  I'm stuck at home again by a winter storm, for the second Tuesday in a row.

Had all the precipitation been snow, this would have been no big deal. We would have gotten one to four inches of fluff, and Vermont life would have gone on as normal.  Instead, Vermont schools have already racked up two snow days, and it's only November.

On the bright side, the ice is mostly not heavy enough to damage trees and power lines. There are a handfull of outages in southeastern Vermont, where freezing rain was a bit heavier and some heavy, wet snow mixed in as well.

Since a thin layer of snow will fall atop the ice in most locations, and temperatures will either barely rise above freezing today or not reach 32 degrees at all, it's going to be treacherous underfoot for quite awhile.

The main roads will continue to improve as precipitation tapers off later today, but be careful walking or driving on back roads for a few days.  I'm afraid there will be plenty of emergency room visits from falls over the next couple of days.

By the way, according to Vermont labor law, if you are entitled to sick days at work, you are legally allowed to take a sick day to deal with your kids who are not in school. Of course, low income kids get free lunches at school. If they're not in school, they don't get that free lunch. Their cash-strapped families have to figure that out on their own.

For those of you who are young and spry, it might be a good idea to check in on elderly and disabled people to see if you can bring anything to them. That way, they won't have to risk it on our nearly statewide skating rink.

There might be some more minor accumulations of snow tomorrow, especially in the mountains. It won't be anything great - a trace to two inches at most.

Another weather front is due Friday, which could bring us another bout of snow showers or snow squalls - all this preceded by some rain.

Temperatures will remain frustratingly below normal at least through next Sunday.  If you have snow and ice on the ground, chances are most of it will stick around for quite awhile yet.

Two Very Different Problems With Ice In Vermont And Australia

The National Weather Service in South Burlington had adjusted its forecast
slightly and delayed the expected onset of freezing rain later today.
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see. In the Champlain
Valley, many of us have a shot of making it home from work before
the roads ice up.

There's some slightly good news in the forecast regarding the freezing rain and sleet that's expected to hit Vermont later today and tonight.  And at least we're not having other problems with destructive balls of ice like Australia had this weekend. (More on that further down, with videos).

Let's get into Vermont first. 

It looks like the onset of this icky precipitation will be a little later and a little lighter than first forecast. It looks like only spotty, very light freezing rain will hit in time for this afternoon's commute, especially west of the Green Mountains.

East of the Greens, it will be a little worse.

We're still going to get the ice, it's just coming later, mostly overnight.  Ice accumulations are still not expected to be whopping. The trees and power lines are pretty much safe. But anyone traveling tonight and overnight can expect really icy roads.  It'll be a good night to stay in and watch "Monday Night Football" or "The Voice" or whatever.

Tuesday morning still looks a little dicey if you're driving to work or school.  Overnight, freezing rain will transition to sleet then snow in most places. A little snow atop ice is never a good thing, so be careful!  All of Vermont and pretty much all of New England is under a winter weather advisory for this icky weather.

We Vermonters catch another break of sorts Wednesday and Thursday.  There will be little if any precipitation. Temperatures will remain colder than normal, but not nearly as far below normal as it's been lately. At least no more record lows are anticipated this week. We'll take what we can get.

The next weather maker is coming along Friday.  It looks like it might be a rain to snow situation, but precipitation won't be super heavy, as it seems now. Stay tuned for updates on that one.

AUSTRALIA HAIL

Large parts of Australia, including a good chunk of Queensland in the east, have been battling wildfires in recent weeks.

Hail damage after a big weekend hail storm in Queensland, Australia

Parts of Queensland got a decidedly suboptimal way to fight those fires over the weekend. Mother Nature decided to throw giant balls of ice at the flames.

Yep, Queensland got nailed by hail.  Big time.  The hail in some areas was the size of baseballs or even softballs. A large supercell thunderstorm was to blame.

The hail caused major damage to countless cars and windows in the area. The relatively brief storm managed to cost at least $40 million in damage, according to Australia's ABC News.

Here are some videos:

This car took a bit of a pounding, didn't it?



Few things are as noisy as big hail in a parking lot.  This is at some place called Aussie World. You can see the car windows getting smashed out during the video:



Some cool slo-mo of somebody releasing a lot of hail from fruit-catching nets in an orchard:

Record Winter Weather Persisting In Vermont; Wintry Week Ahead, Too

As can be seen with this map (click on it to make it bigger and easier to
see) ice accumulations with the upcoming storm look like they
will be around a tenth of an inch. That's not enough to bring down
trees and power lines, but more than enough to make road
conditions dangerous. Map is from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington, Vermont. 

It seems like winter has gone on forever already, even though it's only mid-November and our early siege of mid-winter type weather has only gone on for about a week to ten days.

As expected, the cold intensified overnight, with low temperatures tying and setting records, and falling to levels that would be considered chiller than normal for mid-January.

Quite a few places across Vermont managed to get below zero last night, which really is something for this time of year. Island Pond bottomed out at a remarkable 11 below, and Averill was close at 9 below.

In the tropical part of Vermont, Burlington tied its record low for the date at 7 degrees above zero. St. Johnsbury had a record low of 1 below.

Temperatures are moderating under sunshine as we get into Sunday afternoon, but it's still a lot colder than normal.  As mentioned yesterday, we are also in for much more ugly winter weather to come.

We are still due for freezing rain, sleet and finishing off with snow Monday afternoon, night and Tuesday. As is always the case with these situations, some places might be marginal between the rain and ice line, but count on slippery roads and sidewalks starting by Monday afternoon at the latest.

The drive home Monday evening will be lousy, and so will the trip into work Tuesday morning. The precipitation is not going to be especially heavy, but a little bit of ice goes a long way toward making life miserable.

It's also unclear at what pace Monday night and Tuesday morning we'll transition from freezing rain to sleet to snow, but I guess most places in Vermont can expect at least one to three inches of snow and ice, with locally higher amounts.

Unsettled weather will continue pretty much all of this coming week, with rain and snow showers around.  It will stay about ten degrees colder than normal during the week, but I suppose that's better than the 20 to 30 degree below normal air we've had over the past couple of days

It's hard to say whether this frigid November is a harbinger of an exceptionally rough upcoming winter in Vermont.

This is ancedontal, but a November and awful lot like the current one came in 1967.   If the rest of this winter follows like it did in December, 1967 through early 1968, the news isn't good.  December, 1967 was slightly colder than normal. January, 1968 was brutal. That month set a record for the most consecutive hours of subzero weather in Burlington, though that record was broken in February, 1979.

January, 1968 was the fifth coldest on record. February, 1968 was much colder than normal, too. Mild air did not return that winter until late March.  So yeah, I'm hoping history doesn't repeat itself in this case.

Bitter Cold. Next Up: Freezing Rain In Vermont. Oh, Joy!

Bad road conditions in Burlington, Vermont last winter. Expect more
of the same as winter's early arrival keeps punishing us.

I'm more than a little jealous of people in north central and parts of the Northeast Kingdom.

Last evening, as those well-predicted snow squalls lumbered through, there were lightning strikes up in that area.

Thundersnow! I haven't seen that in a few years, so I missed out. Where I'm at in St. Albans, there were some snow showers, but nothing spectacular.  So congratulations to those who got thundersnow.  You get the Jim Cantore thundersnow excitement award.

Now, as expected, its ridiculously cold out there. Most of us were in the single numbers to low teens at dawn broke this morning. A couple subzero readings showed up.  As of 6 a.m., it was minus 2 at Gallup Mills, Vermont in the Northeast Kingdom and early this morning it was a remarkable 8 below at the tradtional cold spot of Saranac Lake, New York. 

We will have record cold high temperatures today, as temperatures only peak between 15 and 22 degrees. It should be in the low to mid 40s this time of year. More record low temperatures are due tonight, with lows regional wide from about minus 5 to plus 10.

Think this winter misery for so early in the season is over after that? Think again. I hope you like freezing rain and ice, because that seems like it's coming our way Monday into Tuesday.

Now, this won't be the type of 1998 ice storm that brings down all the trees and powerlines. Not by a long shot. There will only be a light accumulation of ice. Enough to make the roads, sidewalks and such a slick nightmare.

There's still a lot of question marks as to how much ice will come, exactly when it will come and how much sleet or snow might mix in.  On Monday afternoon, temperatures in many areas will probably sneak a couple degrees above freezing.

But it's been so cold that the ground is frigid, so rain will freeze when it hits. This is normally a problem later in the winter, not in November. But this is a bizarre month. Has been from Day 1.

The Monday evening commute and Tuesday morning trip to work will both be tricky.  Again, there won't be a lot of precipitation, but it will be the wrong kind.  At this point, it looks like the mix will change to snow Tuesday morning, but there won't be a huge accumulation.

This icy start to the week will come from an offshore nor'easter.  It will be pretty far out to sea, which explains why the precipitation won't be especially heavy in Vermont. But the weather pattern will pull moisture inland from the storm, which means we will get some icy ick coming from the sky.

This same nor'easter will cause gusty winds, coastal flooding and a lot of beach erosion in the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic states.

The next storm comes Friday. It's too soon to give you details. Early hints are it will be a rain to snow situation, but there's plenty of time yet to figure that one out.

Very Windy, Icy Storm Poised To Hit Vermont; Will Be Much Worse Elsewhere In Nation

An extremey colorful National Weather Service map today means
there are lots and lots of weather hazards going on around
the United States today. 

It's going to be a nice, calm, pleasant enough Saturday here in Vermont, with peeks of sun and mild afternoon temperatures in the 30s.

Don't get used to it. As the National Weather Service in South Burlington says in their Saturday morning forecast discussion: "Better enjoy today because tomorrow is going to get ugly."

Ugly, yes, unless you enjoy mixed precipitation, a cold rain, and especially strong gusty winds. If you love all of those weather hazards, Sunday will be your day.

At least it isn't as bad as much of the rest of the nation. Today and tomorrow will feature blizzards, tornadoes, severe flooding and winds even stronger than we'll get there. I'll talk more about local impacts here in Vermont, first, then get into the mess elsewhere in the nation:

VERMONT AREA EFFECTS

Late tonight, snow, sleet and freezing rain will break out across the area as the storm's warm front moves into the region. Yeah, we've been through this drill plenty of times this winter. Precipitation won't be particularly heavy, but it will be enough to ice up the roads across Vermont late tonight and Sunday morning.

That's why there's a winter weather advisory for all of us, ending at 9 a.m. in the Champlain Valley and noon further east in the state. By afternoon, things will have transitioned to a cold rain.

The real story for us with this storm is strong winds. I'm sure there will be problems with downed trees and power lines. Initially, on Sunday, there will be a period of wind gusts up to 50 mph along the western slopes of the Green Mountains and up to 45 mph in the Champlain Valley.

Sunday evening, the powerful storm's cold front will come through, and behind that is where the winds really ramp up.

There is a high wind watch for the Adirondacks of New York Sunday afternoon into Monday. A high wind watch in southern Vermont starts Sunday night and goes into Monday.  I expect these watches to be upgraded to warnings later.

I'm pretty sure the National Weather Service in South Burlington will issue a wind advisory, if not a high wind watch or warning, for the rest of Vermont Sunday night and Monday.

Areas under the high wind watches could see gusts to 60 mph Sunday night and Monday. Elsewhere in Vermont, gusts will go to 50 mph or higher. Sunday and Monday won't be be the right time to wear your new hat or show off your new hairdo outdoors.

Rain will change to snow showers Sunday night and continue on Monday, especially in mountains. Monday will be a harsh day, with those strong, possibly damaging winds, falling temperatures, along with some snow and blowing snow.

It'll turn very cold for late February by Tuesday, with highs barely in the teens and lows around 0. Some moderation will come later in the week, but it will be chillier than normal. It's not spring yet!

TROUBLE ACROSS U.S.

Especially in areas shaded in red and orange, there is a risk of
tornadoes today. A few of the tornadoes could be strong
and long lasting. 

Most of the United States is feeling effects of this very large storm, but if I had to pick a place that's having the worst time with this, I'd say northern Mississippi.

Days of torrential rain there and in nearby Tennessee and Alabama have caused a lot of flooding, and the torrential rain continues today.

An example, it sure is wet in Tupelo, honey. In the four days ending at midnight last night, the northern Mississippi city had collected 10.73 inches of rain. Another inch or so fell in the four hours after midnight, and more heavy rain will come down today.

Some rivers in this region are or will experience record flooding from these massive downpours.

Even worse, there is going to be an outbreak of severe weather today. The best chance of tornadoes, some of them possibly long lasting and strong, is in,  yes, northern Mississippi.  

This tornado threat also includes much of Tennessee, eastern Arkansas and northern Alabama

I'm impressed by the wide area of high winds this strong storm will cover. A wide path from Texas to New England is under high wind watches and warnings, or wind advisories.

While wind damage will occur in all these areas, it still looks like the epicenter will be in the eastern Great Lakes. The Buffalo, New York area is still expecting gusts Sunday of up to 75 mph. Worse, a huge amount of already fragmented ice on Lake Erie will be shoved onshore in and near Buffalo, which would cause a lot of damage. I guess this is yet another reason to dislike Buffalo in the winter.

Finally, a wide area in the central part of the country is under a blizzard warning.  You get that when it snows, and winds gust to 55 mph. This storm will be especially bad further north in Iowa and Minnesota. There's already a lot of snow on the ground from previous storms, and these strong winds will pick up and blow that around. I imagine there will be some pretty gigantic snow drifts.

Overall, I'd rate this storm the worst of the winter for the nation as a whole.

Yay! Two Mixed Ugly Storms Coming To Vermont, But It's Much Worse Elsewhere

A sparkling clear winter day in St. Albans, Vermont yesterday. It was an
interlude between the storminess we've had all winter. Another
mixed precipitation mess, albeit relatively minor,
is due tonight across the state. 

The sparkling sunshine that graced Vermont yesterday is gone, replaced by  veil of high thin clouds.

Those clouds signal the next storm system, which will, of course, bring us more mixed precipitation overnight and tomorrow morning. That's been the pattern this winter, and we might as well close out the season with such weather as well.

By the way, another mixed storm seems likely by Sunday.

First, we'll get through tonight. This one won't be huge. It will be just another winter inconvenience. We've had lots of those.

Interestingly, it's worse to our south, and will be somewhat worse than what we're getting once it gets past us and heads toward Maine.

As has been the case often this winter, a storm is headed up into the Great Lakes by tomorrow. It's pushing a warm front towards us. This warm front is lifting mild air up and over the chillier air that is grudgingly moving away toward the northeast.

When this happens, snow usually breaks out and that's exactly what will happen overnight. The National Weather Service tells us to expect one to three inches in western Vermont and three to fie in most locations east of the Green Mountains.

There is a winter weather advisory for the eastern half of Vermont based on this forecast.

While most of this modest storm will come as snow, it will go over to sleet toward the end early tomorrow morning. There could be areas of freezing rain, too, but it won't last long in any one place and won't accumulate too much.

Just be prepared for some slippery travel for the Thursday morning commute, especially from the Green Mountains eastward.  By afternoon at the latest, it will be all over, except for a few lingering rain showers here and there. It will be mild, with temperatures hitting 40 degrees or so in the valleys.

Bottom line: This will be another inconvenient storm in the Green Mountain State, but certainly not Storm Of The Century.

IT'S WORSE ELSEWHERE

When the map on the National Weather Service home page has
lots of pretty colors, you know there's lots of storminess
across the nation. That is indeed the case today, as
the current map indicates.

This is a sprawling storm, and its impacts are much greater elsewhere than they will be here in Vermont.

Ihe Mid-Atlantic States, the storm has a better moisture supply than it will have up here in the north. Winter storm warnings are in effect for western Virginia, much of Maryland and southern Pennsylvania for four to eight inches of snow, followed by sleet and freezing rain today and tonight.

It has already been snowing and sleeting heavily in this area over the course of the morning. Federal offices in Washington, DC are shut down.

That snow will be heavy and wet. Plus, up to a quarter inch of ice is possible in some areas in the Mid-Atlantic. On top of the difficult travel

Further west, in the colder air the storm is throwing heavy snow into parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa. Many areas in this region can expect six to 12 inches of new snow by the time this is over.  

This will probably be the snowiest February on record in Minneapolis. Other cities in the region are also having near-record snows this month.

Further south, the problem is also bad, if not worse. There's extensive flooding to report today in areas such as Tennessee, Mississippi and Kentucky. Nashville, Tennessee had already picked up nine inches of rain so far this month, which is a record for February, and more bouts of off and on heavy rain are forecast there through Saturday.

THE NEXT STORM

A new storm is forecast to gather itself together around northern Texas and then head toward the Great Lakes over the weekend. This one will be arguably the first of the season that has springtime characteristics.

Typically in March and April, storms cross the Plains and head toward the Great Lakes. These storms cause outbreaks of severe weather and tornadoes in the South, blizzardy snowstorms in parts of the Plains, and a mixed bag of conditions here in Vermont.

That's precisely what is forecast with the weekend storm.

In Vermont, we will stay relatively mild  - highs in the 30s lows in the 20s for the most part - Friday and Saturday until the next storm hits.

When this next storm arrives, it will probably begin as mixed precipitation Saturday night or early Sunday. Then temperatures are expected to get quite warm - well into the 40s with some rain Sunday. Then it will turn much colder again with snow showers by early next week.

If you want nice spring weather, you are going to have to wait awhile.

Tuesday Evening Vermont Winter Storm Update: So Far As Predicted, But....

Around 4 p.m. today, St. Albans, Vermont. No snow yet....

As widely expected by all the meteorologists around here, snow has spread across most of Vermont from southwest to northeast today.  As it moved in, the snow would go from flurries to a steady, relatively thick snow very quickly.

As of 4 p.m., it wasn't snowing yet in the northeast corner of Vermont, but that will change soon.

The overall forecast hasn't changed much, but of course we won't know exactly the extent of the expected sleet, and perhaps freezing rain until it's over. So just expect a mess anywhere in Vermont and surrouding areas now through Wednesday morning.

This evening's commute is not good. Maybe not as bad as the freezing rain nightmare last Wednesday, but bad enough. The visibility is low, roads have gotten snow covered very quickly, and highway crews won't be able to keep things clear as the snow continues to fall at a good clip.

Forecast amounts haven't changed much, with the northwest corner getting eight to 12 inches by midday Wednesday.  There might be locally higher amounts.  Central Vermont away from the western slopes of the Green Mountains should get a good six to 10 inches, even as a little sleet likely mixes in.

Southern Vermont is getting a good thump of snow before things go over to sleet later this evening.  I'l still go with the expectation that the sleet will make it as far north as Route 2 overnight, but it could go further, or it might not get that far north. It's really impossible to tell for sure. Just know the further south you go, the more sleet and possibly freezing rain you'll run into.

As mentioned this morning, strong east to southeasterly winds will go up and over the Green Mountains, causing the risk of strong wind gusts to 50 mph or more overnight. That, of course creates problems with blowing snow, and then ice on trees if there's too much freezing rain.

And, as noted those areas on the western slopes will see less snow and sleet than everybody else around here. For instance, current forecasts say there would be as little as four or five inches of new snow and sleet around Rutland, compared to a nice eight or nine inch dump on top of and just east of the Green Mountain spine nearby.

....15 minuts later, it's coming right down. There could be a foot
of new snow in this northwestern Vermont scene
by Wednesday morning. 

The extent of the sleet depends upon how much the main storm system heading into the eastern Great Lakes can shove a tongue of warm air aloft over us.

If all goes according to plan with the forecasts, (operative word being "if" ), any mix will go over to snow again early Wednesday morning as a coastal low takes over, as meteorologists expect.

Also, an area of drier air aloft could sneak into southern and central Vermont for a time overnight before moisture returns. That would set off a period of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle, which of course is depressing.

It's still expected to be fairly mild Wednesday - between 30 and 35 degrees - so snow cleanup won't be too uncomfortable. A relatively gusty wind from the west will probably get going, so it will feel a bit chillier than it will actually be.

There will be occasional light snow lingering all day. Roads will be very tricky for the morning commute, and so-so in the evening, is my thought.

Overall this is a storm to certainly take seriously, but we've seen worse. We've had much deeper accumulations and much more ice in past storms. Just take it easy on the roads, don't travel if you don't have to, and don't kill yourself shoveling snow too quickly. Mellow out, my friends.

A sneak peek at the next storm Friday and Saturday reveals a trend toward not as much rain as first thought earlier in the week. Precipitation will be not that heavy with the weekend storm. Current forecasts have some rain and snow, but the exact outome is pretty vague at the moment.

Tuesday Update: Today And Tonight's Winter Storm About To Strike

Tuesday morning's National Weather Service forecast map. Darker orange areas
get the most snow, around a foot, if this map comes to pass
Blue and yellow areas get the least snow and sleet, around 5-6 inches.

As of mid-morning Tuesday, clouds were lowering, thickening and turning darker as the well-anticipated winter storm is now on our doorstep.

The forecast hasn't changed too much since last evening's updates, but there's still a high bust potential in the predictions.

THE DETAILS:

The front part of the storm is pretty certain. Snow will spread from southwest to northeast across Vermont between 1 and 5 p.m today. When the snow hits, it'll go from just flurries to fairly heavy snow quite quickly, at most within an hour or two.

So, if you see flurries start in your location and think you'll leave work at that point to beat the heavier snow and the slick roads home, it won't work, unless you live less than five minutes from where you live. Snowfall rates in this first initial heavy band will probably be one to two inches per hour, with locally higher amounts.

That's pretty impressive, and is close to the heaviest snow rates possible in this neck of the woods. The National Weather Service in Albany suggests there's a slim but real possibility of thunder snow with this initial band as far north as far southern Vermont. We'll see.

Don't let the chilly temperatures this morning fool you. There will be plenty of warm air aloft for this, so mixed precipitation definitely enters the picture. And temperatures will slowly and steadily rise now through Wednesday morning, from the single numbers this morning to low 30s by Wednesday morning.

Forecasters are also sure that sleet will follow the snow this evening from southwest to northeast across at least a portion of Vermont. That's where the bust potential in the forecast comes in.

The last bit of sun glow in the southeastern sky over St. Albans,
Vermont this morning as the next winter storm approaches.
Look for plenty of snow and sleet starting this afternoon. 

As we said yesterday, the main storm is going by to our west, while another storm forms along the Northeast U.S. coast.

When that coastal storm gets going, it'll cut the northward progress of the sleet off at the pass. But where will that be?

Where the northward advance of the sleet stops depends entirely on how fast and how strongly the coastal low develops. If forecasters are off by just a tiny bit, the current forecasts will be wrong. How wrong at this point is anybody's guess.

At this point, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is thinking the sleet tonight will get as far north as the central Adirondacks and very roughly up to Route 2 in Vermont. North of that, the thinking is precipitation through the whole storm will be almost exclusively snow, with just the chance of a few brief ice pellets thrown in overnight.

Of course, when and where the sleet comes in depends on much accumulation we'll get.  In places where little or no sleet falls, the snow accumulation will obviously be the most. Those places look like it will be about a foot by Wednesday.

Here's where that is most likely: The thinking remains the big winners in the snow department for New York will be the St. Lawrence Valley and  a few places in the Adirondacks.

In Vermont, the deepest accumulations will be way up in northwestern Vermont in places like North Hero, Alburgh, St. Albans and Highgate. That's the third time this winter a big storm dumped the most snow in these locations. More often than not, far northwestern Vermont misses out on the biggest snow accumulations.

The far northern Green Mountains also look like they will be snow winners.

Southern Vermont is at risk for freezing rain with this, too.  I would say freezing rain could get as far north as Route 4, but again, this could be off by a fair amount. Far southern Vermont could get enough freezing rain to ice up trees enough to break a few branches and power lines.

Strong winds are still expected to be a factor along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, especially in central and southern Vermont. Winds there could gust to or over 50 mph. That also could bring down a few trees and power lines, especially in areas that get freezing rain.

As noted yesterday, the strong downslope winds on the western slopes will cut down on precipitation.  Between the sleet and the drying effects of those winds, parts of Rutland and Addison counties, for instance, might only get four or five inches of snow and sleet. Even that might be generous.

The Connecticut River Valley from White River Junction south look like they will get six inches of snow or sleet - or less out of this.

As the coastal low takes charge tomorrow morning, mixe precipitation will go back to snow, then taper off across most of the area.

The bottom line is this afternoon's commute, and the one Wednesday morning will be tricky regionwide.

Across northern and central Vermont, the snow looks like it might pick up in intensity again for a time Wednesday afternoon and evening, which would prolong the risk of slippery roads in the region.

ELSEWHERE

This storm is creating a mess from the Midwest to Maine.  Lots of places have already gotten a ton of freezing rain and sleet, and that trend will continue the rest of today. ]

For the second time this month, Chicago was under an ice storm warning early this morning. Roads are a mess out there, with trees and power lines weighted down by a lot of ice. It's going to turn windy later today in Chicago, meaning, more icy trees and branches might come down.

Southern Michigan is experiencing the same problem as Chicago this morning. A lot of freezing rain with its associated damage is likely tonight in places like Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southern New York and parts of southern New England.

Further south, the rain is coming down in torrents. Flood watches and warnings extend from Tennessee to the southwestern corner of Pennsylvania.

It's been a particularly stormy winter nationwide, from Hawaii to Maine, and this is the latest assault. An active weather pattern is likely to continue through the end of the month, but of course, it's hard to tease out more than a few days in advance the particulars of how each storm will behave.

Vermont's Winter Storm Warning Continues, But As Usual, Some Forecast Adjustments

An updated storm forecast map from the National Weather Service in
South Burlington, Vermont. Generally speaking, central and
northern Vermont could still see eight to 12 inches of snow.
There will likely be less along the western slopes of the Greens.
If forecasts later today indicate more warming aloft, snowfall
totals might be cut back because more sleet would mix in. We'll see.

Vermont and most of the rest of the Northeast is still definitely on track for a messy winter storm Tuesday into Wednesday.

I'll focus on Vermont in this update, with some info on other areas of the Northeast further down.

As expected while we head toward this storm, there are some changes to the forecast. This involves mixed precipitation, and some interesting things along the west slopes of the Green Mountains.

As mentioned yesterday, this winter event consists of one storm heading through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes and then starting to fade. Another storm will form along the New Jersey coast and head into New England.

There will be plenty of moisture, so in most of the region, whatever comes from the sky will come down pretty hard. There will still be quite a bit of snow involved, but unfortunately, it's beginning to look like sleet and even some freezing rain might become more of a factor than first thought.

In their forecast discussion, the National Weather Service in South Burlington notes the upper level part of the storm going by to our west looks like it would hold together fairly well, and for a somewhat longer period of time than earlier forecasts.

That would allow more warm air to sneak in over Vermont aloft. It now looks like sleet will work its way north into at least central Vermont. If forecast trends continue,  at least a little sleeet would make it all the way to the Canadian border.

The mixed precipitation will be more of a factor the further south you go into Vermont. Everybody in the Green Mountain State will get a good thump of snow at the onset of the storm. Then chances of sleet or even freezing rain start to ramp up overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

I give it at least a 50/50 chance of some sleet, if not more, from Route 2 south. Sleet and possibly freezing rain is a given from Route 4 south. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has a very slight chance of freezing rain all the way to the Canadian border in Vermont, and a greater than 50 percent chance of freezing rain along the Massachusetts border.

Wind flow with this storm is going to be strong from the southeast.  The wind will go up the east slopes of the Green and White mountains and then downhill on the west slopes. That means south and east facing slopes of the Green Mountains will have the heaviest precipitation. Eastern slopes of the southern Greens could easily see a good 10 to 12 inches of snow and sleet with this storm.

Downhill flowing air tends to dry out, so precipitation will be lighter along the west slopes of the Green Mountains, and in parts of the Northeast Kingdom in the "shadow" of New Hampshire's Whtie Mountains.

While official forecasts still call for eight to 12 inches of snow and maybe sleet accumulation in most of central and northern Vermont, accumulations could easily be cut back to five or six inches in a narrow band along the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

This would include Rutland, Middlebury, the eastern suburbs of Burlington, and rural towns in eastern Franklin County. Parts of the Northeast Kingdom, including St. Johnsbury and Lyndonville, would also have the snow totals cut back.

Along those western slopes, the winds could get quite strong as the head downhill. A wind advisory for gusts of 50 mph is up for this area Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. The strongest winds would come through between 8 p.m. Tuesday and 3 a.m. Wednesday.

I wouldn't be surprised if some spots go well over 50 mph, with isolated gusts of 60 mph or more. So that spells trouble with a few trees and power lines.

That eight to 12 inch forecast in the northern half of Vermont might be cut back a bit if later forecasts indicate more sleet than current expectations. Expect a lousy commute Tuesday evening. Wednesday morning probably won't be a picnic, either.

The snow will taper off and become much lighter Wednesday. Some of the warmest valleys could see a few rain drops mix in, as temperatures go into the low and mid 30s. Snow showers will linger into Wednesday night with light accumulations.

Further south, this storm looks like it could spell really icy trouble, especially in southern Michigan, much of Pennsylvania, southeastern New York and into parts of southern New England. Travel will obviously be seriously hampered in these areas.

The worst hit areas are also going to have problems with trees, branches and power lines coming down Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Don't go to Pennsylvania and surrounding areas Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Another pretty substantial storm looks like it will hit us with more mixed precipitation and maybe plain rain Friday and Saturday, but we'll wait on more details before we get into that too much.

Freezing Rain Turned Vermont Into An Icy Disaster Last Night; More Ice Nightmares Today

Pedestrians walk gingerly on a very icy sidewalk in downtown
Burlington, Vermont during Wednesday evening's ice storm. 

Well, that was a nightmare.

Last evening, freezing rain moved into Vermont just in time for rush hour, and it came with more of a vengeance than almost anyone expected. The result was one of the worst Champlain Valley traffic nightmares I can remember in the more than 30 years I've lived in this region.

As of mid-morning this Thurdsay, it's not quite as bad as it was last evening, but untreated roads, sidewalks and driveways are still a nightmare.

This evening's commute could be another real headache. I'll get into this more in a minute further down, and you'll want to read it. There's still some icy danger on the Vermont roads now, through the day into tonight.

First, let's go chronological order and unpack what happened Wednesday evening.

We knew freezing rain was a risk well ahead of the onset of Wednesday's storm. That's why winter weather advisories were up ahead of the mess for all of Vermont except the areas along the Canadian border.  That winter weather advisory did include Burlington, which was the epicenter of Wednesday evening's

Starting Tuesday evening if not before, everyone was being advised that the Wednesday evening commute would probably be tricky. But it turned out to be a lot trickier than almost everyone, including me, imagined.

The first problem was there was the idea, especially in the northern half of Vermont, that the freezing rain would be mixed with, sleet or snow. Or even that the sleet and snow would predominate. The added sleet and snow - though dangerous -  would give you more traction on the road that just freezing rain alone.

Ice glistens in trees and glares off  the pavement on Main Street in
 downtown Burlington, Vermont during Wednesday evening's ice storm.

Instead, there was almost no snow or sleet. Virtually all the precipitation right up to and past the Canadian border was freezing rain. At the onset, the National Weather Service hastily extended the winter weather advisory all the way up to the Canadian border.

Especially in the northern half of Vermont, the precipitation was forecast to come down quite lightly. Instead, there was a burst of freezing rain that came down fairly heavily.

Burlington reported 0.34 inches of precipitation. Not huge, but more than enough to create havoc. The main band of freezing rain only lasted four hours or so, but the timing was terrible.

The freezing rain moved in right at rush hour. And it went from a sprinkle to a serious drenching very quickly. I was traveling between St. Albans and Burlington at the time on Interstate 89, and I drove into the onrushing band of freezing rain.

In Georgia, everything was fine. By the time I hit Milton, it was pure smooth ice. Figure skater Michelle Kwan would have approved of the ice conditions for her routine.

Temperatures were only in the mid-20s at the onset of the freezing rain. It wasn't even close to 32, which meant the rain froze fast and hard.  I was driving on Interstate 89 in Colchester on a slight decline. My truck brakes were totally ineffective. I only avoided hitting the car in front of me by steering into the breakdown lane and gaining traction on the rumble strip.

Everybody else was having the same problem. Soon, people did start hitting each other. There was a 13-car pile up in Richmond.  Other crashes occured on Interstate 89 and near the Lamoille River bridge between Milton and Georgia.

Plus, a lot of people couldn't make it the slightest hill. Soon, Interstate 89 and every other road in the region was pretty much gridlocked.

With all the cars backed up, the salt trucks couldn't even get through the traffic to salt the roads. People were reportedly trapped in their cars on Interstate 89 northbound for two hours or more. A half hour commute for some people streched to nearly four hours.

Finally, later in the evening, Vermont State Police and other agencies were able to herd Interstate traffic into breakdown lanes so that the salt trucks could get through.

Things temporarily got better late at night, around 10 or 11 p.m. When liquid water freezes on contact, it releases a bit of latent heat. That, combined with a weak south wind, warmed things up so many parts of the Champlain Valley rose just above freezing. Some of the ice melted off the roads.

On the way back to St. Albans at 10:30 to 11 p.m. or so last night, there were still several cars abandoned in the breakdown lanes of Interstate 89. Rest areas were jammed with tractor trailer trucks, whose drivers wisely decided to give up on moving until things improved.

Trees were also weighed down by the ice last night, , but the brief thaw melted the ice off, so additional freezing drizzle today won't increase the danger of broken tree branches and power lines - except in a very few areas where it didn't get above freezing.

The only way to keep an ice storm going is if you get fresh supplies of cold air to overcome the latent heat release from rain freezing on contact. To do that, you'll need a steady, if light flow from the north. That's why the famous ice storm of 1998 lasted for three days. We kept getting a fresh supply of cold air.  

Which leads us to this morning, and the not-at-all-good situation out there now.

TODAY AND TONIGHT'S ICE SITUATION

My St. Albans, Vermont driveway is a skating rink this
morning after last night's freezing rain. This morning's freezing
drizzle and freezing fog is NOT helping. 

In the wake of last night's disturbance, a flow of north winds is funneling down the Champlain Valley this morning. It's below freezing in most locations, especially the Champlain Valley.

This is a repeat of what happened Monday, only worse because temperatures are lower and the subfreezing temperatures extend through the valley, not just the northern tip.

There's ice covering untreated roads and sidewalks and driveways. I simply cannot walk on my driveway. Luckily, I have a supply of sand that I will apply after I write this. There's patchy freezing drizzle and freezing fog around. I'd still be careful if you venture out today.

As it stands now, it looks like the Champlain Valley, especially the northern half, will stay below freezing all day. The rest of the North Country will hover near 32 degrees for the rest of the day.

Which leads us to the next storm this evening. The National Weather Service in South Burlington has already issued a winter weather advisory for areas outside the Champlain Valley. That's because this next storm is also bringing rain. With temperatures near 32, freezing rain is likely to coat roads again.

Initially, it was thought the Champlain Valley would stay warmer than it currently is, so there was no winter weather advisory. However the NWS in South Burlington, as of 10 a.m. this morning, was re-evaluating this. Given the cold north flow, the onset of precipitation this evening will probably be in the form of freezing rain in much of the Champlain Valley.

The only saving grace is the rain looks like it will start a little later than it did last evening, which means more people will have arrived home from work before the mess starts than last night.

Tonight, again, will be much like Monday night. Overnight, the winds from the south will really pick up, so after midnight, anything that comes out of the sky will be non-frozen rain. The last places to end the icing will be the protected valleys of north central and northeastern Vermont.

Then, another rinse and repeat. Just like Tuesday, Friday morning will be warm - in the 40s. That, I hope, would melt some of the accumulated ice out there Then, like Tuesday, temperatures will fall in the afternoon, and be below freezing by evening. Which of course means there will be more ice underfoot.

Enjoy!

Very Wide Area Of Nation Getting An Icy Storm, Including Vermont

Huge parts of the nation are under winter weather advisories today
(dark blue.) The light blue is wind chill advisories, and the pink
is winter storm warnings. Green is flood watches. 

A remarkably large area of the United States has been, is or will very soon get an icy mixed precipitation.

Areas from Oklahoma to Maine are getting freezing drizzle, freezing rain, sleet and all kinds of icy messes with a storm now affected so much of the nation.

No one place is going to have the Worst Ice Storm Ever. But this is the most extensive area getting icy weather that I can remember in a long, long time.

I would say a good 25 percent of the nation is under winter weather advisories for mixed precipitation and/or snow. I'll get to Vermont's dealings with this in a moment.

There's a broad flow of warm, fairly wet air riding up and over a wavering weather front stretching from the central Plains to the East Coast. A couple of storms are riding along this wobbling front, helping bring lift to the atmosphere. That means precipitation. And there's a lot of it, especially for this time of year.

All things considered, most of the country is normally a little drier in the winter than it is in the summer. It's a pretty wet pattern for the nation, considering what time of year it is.

The icy weather began yesterday and is hitting with varying intensities at different times, depending upon where you are. The worst of the ice seems to have hit across parts of Illinois and Michigan, where many power failures are reported. Some areas of Iowa and Ilinois had thunderstorms mixed with the freezing rain and sleet.

South of the wintry icy area, things aren't much better. It's going to rain pretty hard in the Ohio Valley, and most of that region is under a flood watch. A second storm early next week in that neck of the woods will probably make things even worse

There's also a risk of severe thunderstorms and perhaps a tornado or two from northern Texas to western Kentucky. It's a bit early in the season for such severe weather in Kentucky, but it's certainly not unheard of.

VERMONT IMPACTS

I'm sure you noticed it clouded up awfully fast this morning. There are actually two storms headed this way. The first of the two is weaker, but will cause a lot more problems than the second one.

A surge of moisture with this storm is going up and over relatively cold air over us. That sets the stage for mixed precipitation starting this afternoon.

Forecast ice accumulation in Vermont and surrounding areas.
Red zones might get 0.25 inches of ice or a little more,
enough to cause some issues with broken branches and power lines.

It's really hard to tell in advance exactly what will be falling from the sky and when during these types of storms. In general, with this one, freezing rain could fall anywhere in Vermont, and probably will come down almost everywhere.

Things will start to go downhill mid to late afternoon in Vermont as whatever is going to fall out of the sky will be arriving. This evening's commute will probably be icy.

Overnight will be the worst of it. Thursday morning's commute will probably be no picnic in a lot of areas, but things will improve as the morning goes by.

The best moisture, and the best chances of freezing rain are in southern Vermont. A winter weather advisory is up for all of the region, except within about 25 miles or so of the Canadian border. Up there, precipitation will be lightest, and is more likely to take mostly the form of snow and sleet, rather than freezing rain.

Further south, the precipitation will be more in the form of freezing rain, unfortunately. From roughly Route 2 south, the ice accumulation will be noticeable, with a glaze of 0.1 inches or a little more. That's generally not enough to break trees and power lines.

But from roughly Route 4 south, pockets of ice accumulation of a quarter inch or a little more are possible. That's enough to start damaging trees and power lines. This won't be like the epic ice storms of 1998 or December, 2008 ice storm in southern Vermont and the rest of central New England.

You'll still need to take it seriously, however.

Things will quiet down for Thursday. It will remain cloudy. Temperatures for most of us will get above freezing, and that will melt some of the ice. The second, stronger storm will pass by Thursday night and Friday.

At this point, temperatures look to be a little warmer. There might be a few pockets of freezing rain Thursday night, but most of us will get rain. Yeah, I know, the winter sports people aren't happy about that.

Rain showers will change to scattered snow showers Friday as the storm's cold front comes through. The mildest part of the day will be in the morning, when temperatures will briefly spike into the 40s.

By evening, it will be below freezing, and we'll have a mostly dry, seasonably chilly weekend to deal with.

Wednesday Evening Vermont Update: Ice Is Late, But Still Coming

A familiar sight for me this winter. The road in front of my
house in St. Albans, Vermont was once again snow covered
and slippery today as more snow came through in
advance of some freezing rain scheduled for tonight. 

Vermont caught a bit of a break this afternoon, as most of the precipitation that did fall in the state came down as snow.  

First off, there wasn't all that much snow to report. There was steady snow for a few hours this afternoon in far northern Vermont. I picked up about 1.5 inches of snow today at my place in St. Albans.

Most of the rest of the state was mainly dry today, but that's changing as I write this at 5 p.m. Wednesday.

A good slug of precipitation is coming in from New York State. There will probably be some snow with this, especially north, but this is where the well-advertised icy mess comes in.

As of 5 p.m., it was still below freezing everywhere in Vermont except the far southwest corner around Bennington.

Which means nearly everywhere will get sleet and that dreaded freezing rain this evening. Many of us will continue to see the freezing rain at least until midnight, as temperatures slowly keep rising

As mentioned before, even after the temperatures creep above freezing, the rain will keep icing up on cold surfaces.

The weather forecast remains basically unchanged for Thursday with rain changing to snow from west to east during the afternoon. We'll get only a dusting to two inches, but that will be enough to make the roads slick again for the Thursday evening commute.

Busy, Icy Vermont Weather Continues: An Update

Same view of my deck in St. Albans, Vermont that I posted this morning.
Only now, instead of clear, blue skies, you can see a high, thin overcast
The clouds are a harbinger of our next messy storm, due tomorrow
into Thursday. 

The busy weather pattern we've got in Vermont forces me to do another quick update this Tuesday evening

You probably noticed the high, thin clouds spreading over the sky late this afternoon, dimming the sun and heralding yet another storm.

As I mentioned this morning, the new storm tomorrow and Thursday   won't have any blockbuster accumulations, it will still create a real mess.

That's why there's now a winter weather advisory in effect for all of Vermont from 5 a.m. Wednesday to 1 a.m. Thursday. I think that advisory might also get extended later in eastern Vermont.

Snow will come into Vermont during the day Wednesday, and pretty quickly go over to  a mix of sleet and freezing rain. In the Champlain Valley, the freezing rain will change to a cold rain by mid-afternoon, but that won't help.

I'll repeat what I've said earlier: The ground is cold after that sub-zero spell, so even if the temperature is a little above freezing, rain will still ice up on the ground.

Worse, there's still a lot of compacted snow on roads, sidewalks and driveways. That rain will form a slick layer on top of that compacted snow and we'll have a real set of skating rinks on our hands. And that mess on the ground won't be as easy to get rid of with salt because it's so thick. This will continue to be a problem well after the storm is over Thursday night.

East of the Green Mountains, temperatures in most places will stay below freezing for most if not all of Wednesday night, so the freezing rain will continue.

In the Champlain Valley, strong winds from the south Wednesday will cause a lot more blowing and drifting snow before the freezing rain and warmer temperatures set in during the afternoon.

Driving conditions won't be great Wednesday morning, so take extra time to get to work. Coming home in the afternoon won't be a picnic, either, especially if you're outside the Champlain Valley. Even in the Champlain Valley, you'll want to watch it, especially if you're not on a main road.

Thursday the rain will change to snow as cold air comes in. The snow will be wet at first, then dry out. The snow won't amount to too much. Probably two inches or less.

As temperatures fall, all this mess on the ground, the driveway the sidewalks, etc will be even thicker in many places, and everywhere it will freeze hard and solid,

I think for most of the rest of the winter, hospital emergency rooms across Vermont will be busy treating lots of people who will have fallen on the ice.

This really is a rough winter, isn' t it?