Rinse And Repeat: Wintry Threats Continue North, Severe Weather South

A snow shower is seen dumping a quick burst of snow west
of St. Albans, Vermont last evening. Similar conditions are
expected today in Vermont 

As if there isn't enough out there to keep most of us unhappy, the weather pattern is also stuck in a way that gives many of us little to cheer about.

A winter storm is creating a narrow stripe of rather heavy snow from Wyoming to Illinois, and that stripe of snow will eventually extend all the way to southern and central New England by Friday night and Saturday morning.  

Meanwhile, in the South, another severe weather and tornado risk looks like it will appear Sunday, and chnces are high that there will be couple more severe weather threats afrer that in the same region after that.

Up here in Vermont, there was still a dusting of snow on the ground in my yard in St. Albans from last evening and it was definitely cold out, with frost adding more winter to that bit of snow.]

That evening snow was caused by a reinforcing shot of cold air from Canada.  The band of snow was in far southern Vermont and northwestern Massachusetts this morning, causing slick roads in a few spots down there

Today in Vermont will look a lot like yesterday, especially in the northern half of the state. We'll have what I call self-destructing sunshine this morning. That sun will warm the atmosphere, but there's a pool of very cold air aloft.

The warm sun will cause updrafts, causing clouds to form and pile up, obscuring the sun for the most part. Between remaining breaks of sun this afternoon and early evening, those clouds will produce another round of snow showers.

Luckily, the air near the Earth's surface is dry, so much of the snow will evaporate on the way down. Still, many of those snow showers will have enough oomph to give many of us another dusting of snow. Nothing consequential, but also nothing you want to see this time of year.

Meanwhile, a pretty compact but vigorous storm is starting to zip west to east across the middle of the country,  laying down that stripe of snow in the Midwest. Southern Iowa not far from the Missouri border, is expected up to a foot of snow out of this.

That's an awful lot for that area of the nation for mid-April.

The storm will weaken a little, temporarily, but still have enough power to dump a few inches of snow Friday night and early Saturday in southern and central New England away from the coast.

In Vermont, up to three or four inches of snow could pile up Friday night in the mountains east of Bennington.  Further north toward Rutland, at this point it looks like a dusting to an inch, with little or nothing further north

After a brief sorta, kinda warmup on Sunday, it'll go back down to below normal temperatures in New England next week. The Midwest will warm up, but nope, not us!

SOUTHERN STORMS

The South is still reeling from those tornadoes and severe storms Sunday and Monday.  According to the National Weather Service eastern region, a total of 105 tornadoes from April 12-13 have been confired.

Tornadoes touched down in ten states, and if you added up the miles each one traveled, you'd get a total of 771.86 miles. If you combined all those tornadoes into one tornado track, it would extend from about Louisville, Kentucky to Burlington, Vermont.

The weekend tornadoes killed perhaps 30 people, and more than 60 Americans have lost their lives to tornadoes so far this year. If nobody else dies in a tornado this year, (which would be nice) this would still be the deadliest tornado year since 2012, notes the Weather Channel.

There might well be more tornadoes, severe storms and flooding on the way to the South this Sunday.  The expected rough weather won't be as extreme, or cover as big an area as last weekend, but people from Texas to Georgia better watch it on Sunday,  and toward the east on Monday.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is already forecasting a few tornadoes and severe storms for that tie period.

The weather pattern is favoring pretty strong storms riding east from California through the South or south-central United States.  Two more storms are forecast to take relatively similar paths next week, which could again threaten the South with more tornadoes.

Interesting Big Storms Around, But Vermont Mostly Spared

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Harold smashed into parts of Vanuatu
in the South Pacific Sunday and Monday 

The past day or so, and the forecast, calls for a few odd - and strong - storm systems both in the United States and elsewhere, especially in the South Pacific.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD

The nation of Vanuatu in the South Pacific comprises about 80 islands stretched out over 800 miles. Part of that island chain was hit by an immense hurricane named Tropical Cyclone Harold.

Hurricanes are called tropical cyclones in that part of the world and this was an extreme one.

Tropical storm Harold hit Vanuatu's largest island with winds estimated at 145 mph.  According to the Category 6 blog, the island has about 40,000 residents, mostly scattered in small villages across the island.

Harold had earlier killed 27 people in the Solomon Islands, the Weather Channel reports.

The coronavirus pandemic is going to complicate relief efforts in Vanuatu.  The island nation had not yet reported any cases of Covid-19, thanks in large part to restrictions at international borders and on tourism.

However, relief workers won't be allowed to come to Vanuatu to assist, unless they do a 14-day quarantine first, notes the Weather Channel. The economic and social toll of the pandemic will probably also interfere with relief efforts.

Harold is still out there, and is threatening the island nations of Fiji and Tongo.

BLIZZARDY MAINE?

A winter storm watch is up for western and central, and parts of northern Maine Thursday into Friday for what could be a doozy of a storm.

A storm system and cold front will move through New England Thursday, including here in Vermont.  The good dynamics with this storm will create plenty of showers, gusty winds, maybe a rumble of thunder and then some snow showers here in the Green Mountain State Thursday and Friday.

Once the storm gets to the Maine coast, Pow! It looks like it will blow up rapidly into a late blooming nor'easter.  Even the normally staid meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine are wowed with the storm's potential.

"This is an impressive winter storm for any winter month, let along mid-April," they wrote in this morning's forecast discussion.

The storm will be pretty compact, at least at first, so the big storminess will focus mostly on Maine, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and the far southeastern corner of Quebec.

Maine and adjacent Quebec will be on the colder northwest side of the storm. Current forecasts call for a good seven to 10 inches of heavy, wet snow, along with strong winds. If that comes to pass, there will certainly be some nasty power outages in that neck of the woods.  Luckily the storm won't hang around for a long time, so conditions in Maine will start to improve later Friday.

Even so such a nasty winter storm is a bit of a shock to the system in April, even by Maine standards.

SOGGY S. CALIFORNIA

The winter rainy season in southern California is usually ending by now, but don't tell that to residents down there now. Flood watches are up for southern and southeasternn California, mostly south and east of Los Angeles.

A slow moving storm will dump heavy showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the usually dry deserts inland from the southern California coast. Those storms could easily cause some flash flooding.

Los Angeles got into the act yesterday with 1.22 inches of rain, the most for that date on record. It's a cold storm, so winter storm warnings are up for the mountains east of the city.

Forecasters are carefully watching what this storm does once it ejects out into the southern Plains of the United States toward Saturday.  If conditions come together right, the storm could produce a nasty tornado outbreak in the Southeast.

However, forecasting models are all over the place with this system, so nobody yet knows if the storm will turn into a monster or a nothing burger once it gets out into the south and middle of the nation.

BIG Thump Of Snow Surprises Every Vermonter, Including Meteorologists

Winter wonderland in my St. Albans, Vermont yard this morning.

Yesterday and last night's big dumping of snow on Vermont, which surprised everybody, is proof that even with all the fancy-dancy computer models and super smart meterologists out there, the weather can still sneak up on everybody.

As we now know, what had been widely expected to be a decent snowstorm in southern Vermont and no big deal central and north turned out to be anything but.

A band of very heavy snow crept from south to north over all but far northwestern Vermont Monday afternoon and evening.  Snowfall rates in that band were up to three inches per hour, which is pretty much the heaviest snowfall rate possible.

Burlington, for instance, got 2.9 inches of snow in one hour for a storm total of 5.5 inches. The forecast Monday morning called for a storm total of about an inch, so Burlington got roughly three times the predicted snow in just one hour.

Not all Vermont storm snow totals were in yet as of early this morning, but the numbers we do have are impressive, to say the least.

The Northeast Kingdom and parts of central Vermont, especially in Rutland and Windsor counties were close. Quechee reported 11 inches, the most I've seen so far from this storm.  Mount Holly, Worcester, Winhall, Kirby, Calais and Walden all got 10 inches. Around 9 inches fell in St. Johnsbury, Middlebury and Benson.

The 10 or so inches in the Northeast Kingdom were especially impressive since only two or three inches of snow had been predicted there.

Only the far northwest corner of Vermont sort of escaped, but still got more than we bargained for.  Here at my St. Albans property, I collected 3.5 inches of snow.

WHY THE BOTCHED FORECAST

Winter returned overnight for a brief stay in St. Albans, Vermont 

So: Why was the forecast so wrong?  Very frequently in snowstorms, a heavy band of precipitation sets up on the north or northwest side of a storm. That was actually expected to happen with this storm.

Also, as expected, this band of heavy precipitation set itself up Monday across central New England, where winter storm warnings were put up well in advance of this expectation.

The problem was this band of heavy snow, against every expectations lifted northward all the way to the Canadian border in Vermont and New Hampshire. (Another band of heavy precipitation took shape in central New England and pretty much stayed there for a little while, as forecast).

That band of heavy snow lifting northward was not caught in advance by any of the computer models that meteorologist at least partly rely upon.  Sometimes, despite all the advances in technology, the models are not yet always sophisticated enough to catch relatively small scale features like that unpredicted snow band.  

The computer models got the path of the storm correct, they were right about its central strength and forward speed, but were wrong about what happened with the storm here in Vermont.  This time, when the forecasts ended up being wrong, we all surely noticed.

This is not to say we should just give up on weather forecasts. Meteorologists are smart scientists, and the computer models have gotten a lot better with their data over the years.  Which means most of the time, the forecast is correct. Generally speaking, at least 80 percent of weather forecasts for the next day or two turn out to be completely accurate.

But occasionally, we do have to deal with a big surprise, like we did last night.

WHAT'S NEXT

The storm is over, and the cleanup begins. It was a fairly warm storm. You'll notice that the snow is wet and heavy. If you must go out and travel, the main roads were pretty much OK by 7 a.m. - just wet. Secondary roads will have some iffy conditions for awhile, but they'll melt out.

Speaking of melting, if you don't like all this new snow, it will melt pretty fast. True, the unexpectedly deep snow will reflect the sun's heat back into space a bit, so it'll be a little cooler today than originally forecast as a result.

Still, most valley locations will get into the 40s today. Skies will partly clear, and even where it stays relatively cloudy, some of the sun's heat will get through. The sun angle is high now, so that will aid in melting the snow.  The ground is not really frozen, so that will help, too.

We're actually set up for a couple days of great sugaring weather. The snow cover will encourage chillier temperatures for the next couple of nights with lows well down into the 20s. Daytime highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 40s. That is perfect for maple sugaring.

A few days ago, it looked like another storm would take a path similar to yesterday's which risked bringing us more snow tomorrow.  But that system will be weaker and further south than the one we just had, so it won't give us any trouble. We're in the clear.

Some rain showers will probably creep in Thursday. A larger storm seems likely this weekend, but the details on that one are still very sketchy. Early indications are the weekend storm will be mostly, but not exclusively rain.  We'll have to wait and see.

Monday Evening Storm Update. Vermont Dump Of Snow Already Bigger Than Forecast

The worst of the snow has been missing far northwestern Vermont,
with only an inch so far in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. The storm
has been overperforming in much of the Green Mountain State,
with reports of near seven inches already in parts of central Vermont. 

Snow was coming down hard in Vermont early this evening. This storm is definitely overperforming in the Green Mountain State.

For instance, my sister in West Rutland, Vermont reported five inches of new snow as of 6 p.m., which is near the top of the forecasted amount. And it was still snowing hard. From time to time, places as far north as Middlebury and Montpeier have been reporting heavy snow.

Moderate snow was falling in Burlington as of 6 p.m. The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont has extended the winter weather advisory northward to encompass all of Vermont except for Franklin, Grand Isle and western Chittenden counties.

A band of heavy snow unexpectedly set up and has been pivoting northward, dumping a total of six inches of snow already in some towns.  Orwell has already reported 6.8 inches of snow. Bridport has 6.5 inches.

This band of heavier snow will keep going north, but maybe not reach far northwestern sections.

This heavier snow is also wet so there is the danger of some tree and power line damage with this. A few people might see their electricity click off tonight.

The heavier snow should taper off between 8 p.m. and midnight across most if not all of the area. But the damage will have been done. This is definitely more than expected.

While this heavy snow band goes through, expect some treacherous driving. Wet snow is more slick than the dry, powdery snow of midwinter, so keep that under consideration tonight i you must drive.

Vermont Storm Update: Still Very Windy, Wet And Wet-Snowy Thursday

National Weather Service updated snowfall prediction map issued
Wednesday afternoon. It still looks like this is going to be
an elevation snowstorm in Vermont. Click on the map
to make it bigger and easier to see. Yellow and orange
areas should expect more than six inches of snow.

Since this is going to be a pretty good storm, it's worth updating the situation, as you're going to see a lot of rain and/or snow Thursday morning. Some of us will also see a ton of wind.  You'll need to deal with it, so here you go:

THE SETUP 

This afternoon, light north winds funneled chilly air southward down the Champlain Valley, so it ended up being cooler today than expected.  (Elsewhere in Vermont, the low level cool air couldn't make it in, so today's highs ended up in the mid to upper 30s, as forecast.

This subfreezing air today, along with occasional light snow, doesn't really mean the Champlain Valley is in for a colder, snowier storm than expected tonight and tomorrow.  In fact, as of late afternoon, the snow flurries here in St. Albans had already changed to a some light sleet, mixed with a few drops of freezing rain.  That's an indication that a surge of warmer air is on its way.

For most of tonight, at least until midnight, any precipitation that does fall will be very light and spotty.  It's not until the storm pushes in from the southwest, with its strong weather front, that heavy precipitation will get going after midnight.

HEAVY RAIN/SNOW

That front will initially bring a surge of somewhat milder air, so the heavy stuff that comes down in the valleys early Thursday seems like it will be mostly rain. However, with the weather front and storm itself strengthening as it comes in, that could cool the atmosphere a bit to produce wet snow, so it's no guarantee the valleys will be mostly rain.  Let's just call that rain scenario likely, but it's possible you could be surprised.

If it is mostly rain, it come down hard for a time in the morning. There's still a fair amount of ice and snow on the ground in northern areas.  Storm drains are clogged with ice, too. Expect some urban flooding with this rain, if the forecast comes out as expected.  More than half an inch of rain in just a few hours is expected, which would be enough to cause that kind of problem on town and city streets, and maybe basements.

River and stream flooding won't be much of an issue because a large share of the precipitation that will come down in the higher elevations will be snow.

The higher in elevation you go, the more likely you are to get snow.  It still doesn't look like there will be much in mid-elevations, say around 1,000 feet. Those areas could manage a couple or thre einches. However, it's still possible we'd get a surprise with more, but so far, it's looking like a no.

If you're up above 2,000 feet in elevation in most of Vermont, you've got a great shot of getting six inches or more of snow.  Snowfall rates up there could be in the one to two inch per hour range. Especially given that it will probably be a relatively wet and heavy snow, I wouldn't drive toward the mountains Thursday morning.

HIGH WINDS

Wind gust forecast from the National Weather Service in South Burlington
That dark orange stripe along the western slopes of the Green Mountains
in eastern Rutland and Addison counties forecast gusts of at
least 60 mph early Thursday. Lighter orange shading indicates
gusts of at least 40 mph. 

Adding to this mix is the expectations that winds could get quite strong on the immediate western slopes of the Green Mountains. I mentioned this in this morning's post, and everything still seems to be aligning toward those winds.  

The strongest winds would come before or near dawn in Rutland and Addison counties, closest to those western slopes.

Winds could easily gust past 60 mph. With some snow loading on trees and power lines in higher spots, this is a recipe for power problems in and near communites like Mount Holly, Shrewsbury, Mendon, Goshen, Chittenden, Brandon and Starksboro.

Those high winds along the western slopes will spread north around or just after dawn to western slope communities like Huntington, Bolton, Jericho, Underhill, Cambridge and Bakersfield.

In those towns the wind will be a little lighter than points south along the Greens, but the gusts will be enough to risk some power line and tree issues.

The bottom line is you should prepare for a complicated Thursday morning commute, regardless of whether you get mostly rain, mostly snow, or strong winds.  You might want to charge your devices ahead of time, in case the power goes out.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON

After the front passes, heading north and east, precipitation everywhere will change to snow but become lighter. Winds will become somewhat lighter, but remain gusty. Temperatures Thursday afternoon should keep falling through the 30s and well down into the 20s.

Given that, when you're returning home from work Thursday evening, expect slick spots from continued light snow, and water from the morning freezing on roads.

INTERESTING POST-STORM ACTION

Perhaps the most interesting aspects of this storm will actually be something that will happen after the storm actually passes by.  It could have some effects here in Vermont, but first I need to set things up for you.

The storm will head north into Quebec, and there will be strong west winds behind the storm.  As I mentioned this morning, the Great Lakes aren't frozen like they usually are this time of year.  The strong winds, unstable air and the open waters of the lakes will set up some huge lake effect storms downwind from the lakes.

There's strong indications that an epic lake effect snow band will generate itself on Lake Superior, get more energy as it moves east-southeast across Lake Huron, then heads due east across Lake Ontario into the areas near and south of Watertown, New York.

This is especially true south of Watertown in the infamous snow belt area called the Tug Hill Plateau. They are so going to get slammed.

There's a blizzard warning for this area near and south of Watertown for an expected three to four feet of snow on the Tug Hill Plateau and one to two feet in surrounding areas.  This will be propelled by winds gusting to 50 to 60 mph.  You can imagine the huge drifts, zero visibility and difficulties with this situation.

Vermont won't get anything like that. But I've seen that in cases where there's such a powerful lake effect band with such strong winds, some Vermont higher elevations can get quite a bit of snow.

The lake effect snow band, while slightly weakened will extend across the Adirondacks. Generally, the remains of these snow bands skip the Champlain Valley as the Adirondacks block the moisture associated with these snow squalls.  Still, little upper level disturbances in this fast west to east flow behind the storm can help bring some snow from this lake effect into the Champlain Valley.

People in the Champlain Valley won't get much snow out of this, but an inch or two of accumulation could slicken up the roads Thursday night and Friday.  Just sayin'.

The real point of this little story is what happens when the remains of this snow band hit the central and northern Green Mountains. Since this thing is pretty narrow, not everybody in the mountains will get a lot of snow. But in my opinion there's the potential for six or more inches of snow somewhere in the mountains of northern Vermont after the main storm.

All because of this lake effect snow band.  The snow band could move back and forth for a time spreading some snow through the entire Green Mountain chain north of Killington. Or it could focus on a specific area and really come down.  Parts of the Northeast Kingdom could also get in on this action, especially since weather patterns suggest the atmospher might interact with parts of the lake effect stuff up there.

It's not certain all this will happen. But I think it might. The National Weather Service in South Burlington isn't focusing on this right now, because they have their hands full with the immediate storm.  This post-storm snow thingy is just something to watch.

Mostly because it could help make for another great weekend of  skiing and riding, between Thursday's high elevation snow and the post-storm snow showers.

AFTER THAT

It'll be a pretty chilly, wintry weekend across Vermont, which is to be expected as the calendar just turns from February to March. But another period of warm-ish weather seems likely for the first half of next week.  Again, that's something you have to expect now that we're getting into March.

Enjoyed Vermont Taste Of Spring? Good! Back To Winter!

The National Weather Service snow map is back! Click on it to
make it bigger and easier to see. As you can see, the current
forecast has highter snow totals, more than six inches, in the
higher elevations, with less in the valleys, where a mix
with rain is more likely 

Well, that was a nice couple of spring days in Vermont, wasn't it?

Certainly more than warm enough to play in the snow.

If you don't like the snow, you got rid of some of it, especially in the valleys.  Plus, I believe sugarmakers got some early runs in for this year's maple syrup harvest.

This taste of spring is just about over now, and it's back to winter.  We're only in late February, so that's to be expected.  

Given the kind of winter we've had, you'd think we're overdue for another one of many mixed precipitation winter storms. You would be right, and such a storm is on its way.

This time, it doesn't look like there will be a big amount of sleet and freezing rain. But it will rain and it will snow.  Where what falls and when is the challenge.

Pretty much all the storms we've had this winter were a nightmare to forecast, given the temperatures in each one were near 32 degrees. Plus each storm brought complex temperatures to different layers of the atmosphere. If you were off slightly in temperatures, even a degree or so, the forecast would be a bust.

The upcoming storm, in anything, is going to be the most difficult of all to forecast. True, sleet and freezing rain are mostly, but completely out of the picture. But when the heaviest precipitation hits, will it be rain or snow?  Again, being off by a degree in temperature will throw the whole forecast off.

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington sees it, this will be an elevation dependent storm.  This type of scenario becomes more likely as we head into late February or March.  Overall temperatures have begun to warm up toward spring, so valleys tend to be more likely to support a cold rain.

But not always.

Anyway, it looks like there's going to be sharp differences between what goes on in the valleys and up the road 800 or so feet higher.

Here's how the NWS in South Burlington thinks things will play out.

The rest of today will be much cloudier and somewhat cooler than it's been for the past couple of days, but still on the mild side for this time of year. There will be a few spits of wet snowflakes and rain drops around, but it won't amount to anything, really.

There will probably be areas of light sleet and snow around tonight, causing a few slick spots as temperatures fall to near or below freezing.

On Wednesday, things will pick up a bit with somewhat steadier light snow, with a little rain in the valleys. It won't rain and snow all day, but it will be dank and wet and somewhat slushy.

Wednesday night and Thursday morning will bring the main show.  And the part of the forecast that is by far the trickiest

As heavier precipitation arrives, that will tend to cool the atmosphere, which favors snow. But slightly warmer air will trying to come in from the south and east, favoring rain, at least in the valleys.

National Weather Service meteorologist believe it will be cold enough for wet snow, even in the valleys. But it will be so slushy, and possibly mixed with rain, that the warmer low elevations will only get a couple inches of soggy snow.

Go up a few hundred feet in elevation and it would be a completely different scenario, forecasters believed as of this Tuesday morning. If you're up at an elevation of 800 or 1,000 feet, you could easily see four to eight inches of wet snow.  The mountain summits could see a foot or more.

Then there will be the local effects. On the immediate lee of the Green Mountains, on the eastern side, strong maybe even damaging downslope winds seem like they want to get cranking later Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Those winds could cause local power line problems and bring down a few trees. The downslope winds also tend to dry the atmosphere right up against the west side of the mountains, so precipitation could, maybe, be much lighter there.

Since this will be wet, heavy snow, there's definitely the risk of power failures.  If you live in areas out of the valleys, be prepared for that. The heaviest snow will come down on the eastern and southeastern slopes of the mountains.

Things will taper off Thursday afternoon.  Then, Thursday night and into the weekend, it will turn much colder.  Persistent snow showers will continue, especially in the northern and central Green Mountains, where several more inches of snow could pile up betweeen Thursday afternoon and Saturday.

This bodes well for the ski areas.  There, the warm, but rather dry weather over the past couple of days didn't cause much damage to the snowpack.  Plus, by the time the weekend hits, it looks like there will be a decent addition to the snow on the slopes.

By the way, I said it will turn much colder, but it's late enough in the winter in which cold snaps often don't have the bite they did in January.

This means highs on Friday and Saturday will be within a few degrees of 20, and lows will be in the single numbers. Cold, yes, but not unbearable.

It'll start to warm up again somewhat toward Sunday and Monday.

Bottom line, get ready for another messy storm that will probably make your commutes to and from work annoying  on Thursday and maybe cut your power.  And, unless you live in a warmer valley, you face a backbreaking chore of clearing heavy, wet snow after the storm is over.

Also, definitely be ready for surprises.  The valleys that are now forecast to get an inch or two of slush could end up getting much more, if the temperature is a degree or two colder than now forecast.  Or, the rain could creep a little further up the hillsides if it's just a degree or two on the warm side.

I'm sure there will be a few refinements and changes to the forecast before we get to Wednesday evening. We'll monitor!

Big Storm Winding Down Tonight In Vermont

It seemed like my house and truck in St. Albans, Vermont were gradually
 disappearing beneath deepening snow today despite my futile
efforts to keep shoveling. 

Given that the big storm we had today in Vermont was a nightmare to forecast, I'm impressed by how close the National Weather Service and other area meteorologists were able to predict accurately, well in advance, what would happen with this thing.

As forecast, the snow moved in from northwest to southeast starting early this morning and continuing through the day.

The band of heaviest snow came through in the late morning to mid afternoon, which several reports of one to three inch per hour snowfall rates.

As of 4 p.m. today, I measured 11 inches of new snow at my place in St. Albans, Vermont today. Combined with the 2.1 inches of snow that fell yesterday, the storm total so far is 13.1 inches. It was still snowing at that hour, though somewhat less intensely than it did earlier. The bottom line is I'll come very close to the roughly 18 inches of new snow the National Weather Service office in South Burlington said I would get.

As of 4:55 p.m., the National Weather Service in South Burlington reported 11.5 inches of snow just today so far, for a two day total of 14.1 inches. I guess the Champlain Valley had some pretty uniform storm totals, although down toward Middlebury, there was definitely less snow than further north.

Snow totals taper off a lot as you head south and east across Vermont, as expected.

The only slight things off with the forecast were that ice accumulation was a bit heavier than expected last night in parts of the Champlain Valley. And the changeover to snow in the northwestern half of Vermont came just a wee bit earlier than expected, but not by much.

It appears the ice was also more destructive east of the Green Mountains than originally anticipated.  As of 5 p.m. Friday, Vermont Outage Map was reporting at least 13,000 homes and businesses without power, with most of those problems along and east of the Green Mountains from Caledonia County southward.

It looks like freezing rain, followed by snow that was initially wet and heavy, plus gusty northwest winds did a number on trees and power lines there.  

A snow covered car guns up equally snowy Fairfield Hill Road
in St. Albaans on Friday. 

As happy as I am with the accurate, user-friendly job the National Weather Service and area meteorologists did with this storm, I have a really serious bone to pick with some employers in Vermont.

Outfits like the University of Vermont and the state of Vermont government - at least parts of it - made people come to work this morning.

Then, when, as expected, the snow got intense and the roads became almost impassable, these idiot employers said, "Hey, Guess what?!? We're sending you home now. The storm is bad." 

Well, duh!

So, people had to drive home on unsafe roads in minimal visibility during the height of the storm.  Why did UVM and other not just have people not come to work this morning? Don't use the excuse, "Well, the roads weren't that bad at 8 a.m.!"

Never mind that every single Vermont weather forecast I came across this morning - all the TV meteorologists in Vermont, Eye On the Sky, the National Weather Service - were basically screaming that things would get out of hand with the weather by mid-morning. And that's exactly what happened.

I guess these employers don't give a crap about their employees' safety.

Kudos, by the way, to my supervisor at Gardener's Supply, where I work, who called me before 8 a.m. and told me not to come to work because of the weather.  Which meant I avoided a terrible, potentially dangerous commute back and forth between St. Albans and Burlington, Vermont.

 (I asked UVM about all this by responding to their Twitter message about the midday closure, but  as of late this afternoon, Twitter was refusing to let me post anything or receive messages and notifications. I don't know why.)

This evening, if you're home, stay there. Yes, the storm is winding down, but it will probably keep snowing until around midnight. True, it won't come down nearly as heavily as it did earlier today, but the flakes will keep flying. Gusty winds through the night will keep the snow blowing around too.

On top of that, this was a pretty big snowfall, at least in northwestern Vermont. It's also icy further south. Road crews were working pretty damn hard as of late Friday afternoon, but it will take a while to clean up this mess.

Vermont Emergency Management today did give one good reason why you might want to leave the house this evening.  That would be to check on your elderly neighbors.  Do they have heat? Do they need a path out of house through the snow? Are they OK?

After you're done with that, just go back inside and binge watch Netflix or something.

Also, in areas where the snow is pretty deep now, clear the powder away from vents. You don't want carbon monoxide backing up into the house. That oderless gas is a killer, you know.

In the wake of the storm, we'll have some pretty chilly air to deal with. It'll get close to zero tonight, with wind chills well below zero. It'll only get into the teens at best Saturday, and by Sunday morning, it'll be 5 to 15 below in most areas of the state.  That's the coldest it's been all winter, although that's not extreme by Vermont standards.

A brief warmup Monday means many valley locations will have some minor thawing. Say goodbye to the powder, though as the snow settles and gets wetter then freezes up a bit.

More periods of snow and snow showers will continue on and off all of next week, but there won't be any major storms or blockbuster accumulations.

It's February, deal with it.

Wicked Ugly Weather Friday In Vermont. Stay Home!

Storm total map for snow accumulation, updated early Friday
morning. Snow could reach a depth of more than a foot
across the northwest.  Strong winds will blow
the snow around, too. This comes after freezing rain
and sleet early this morning. 

On this February Friday in Vermont we're faced with a storm in which forecasts issued early this morning for your area will probably be at least a little wrong.

However, any little inaccuracies don't really matter with this storm.

The bottom line is, it's a very ugly out there an it will get even uglier as the day wears on.  This is totally a day that you will either want to work from home or just call in sick, if possible.

You won't want to be out in the roads anywhere in or near Vermont today.

In most of the state and surrounding areas, you will experience sleet, freezing rain, then heavy snow, blowing snow, whiteouts, strong winds and plunging temperatures.

The combination, at least in my opinion, makes this just about the worst type of storm to be caught out in.

But, you're perfectly safe if you just stay home.  I just went through the list of today's school closings at the Vermont Public Radio web site and it's an awfully long list.  I'm pretty sure your town's school is closed today.

The overall forecast scenario for this storm is the same as last night with one big question: What will be falling from the sky and when?  That will have a big influence on how much ice accumulates on roads, trees and power lines. It will also determine whether you get only a few inches of snow at your house or a foot and a half. We do know precipitation, whatever it is, will come down really hard at times.

There are big timing questions as to when mixed precipitation will go over to snow in any one spot in Vermont today.  If it changes over even an hour later than forecast, you get more ice, but much less snow accumulation.  If the change comes an hour or two earlier than predicted, you get a few inches of extra snow.

It's really impossible to time the changeover super accurately with this type of storm.

Like I said, though, it doesn't really matter what falls from the sky at any given minute today.  No matter what, it's beyond lousy.

THE DETAILS:

Ice accumulations in central Vermont might be enough to break
some trees and power lines. (Red areas especially).

Overnight, the mixed precipitation, though light, made it northward all the past the Canadian border.

At my house in St. Albans, we had a glaze of freezing drizzle overnight. As of 5:30 a.m., that changed to heavier showers of mixed sleet and freezing rain.

Snow was increasing in northern New York as of 6 a.m. today. Radar indicated the rate of snowfall was rapidly increasing over northwestern New York.

As this heavy band of precipitation becomes established, it will intensify and move east into Vermont.  It will bring sharply colder air with it, changing mixed precipitation to snow over northwestern Vermont first. Then the snow will head south and east across the state.

For this morning's commute, things will go from iffy to much worse as the morning wears on. The best guess from the National Weather Service in South Burlington is that snow will reach the Burlington area by around 9 or 10 a.m. today, Montpelier around noon, and early to mid afternoon in southern Vermont.

As of 6:50 a.m., at least, this scenario seems pretty accurate, as snow was beginning to mix in with the sleet and freezing rain up here in St. Albans, the northwestern corner of Vermont.

As this changeover happens, the rate of precipitation will increase as this storm, already strong, really cranks up. Whatever falls from the sky will come down pretty hard. This type of storm  often sets up narrow, intense bands of precipitation  on its northwest flank, which we will be in.  So, one town might end up with say, 15 inches of snow, while a community just 20 miles to the west or east gets maybe six inches.

Before the changeover, ice could accumulate on trees in power lines in south central Vermont enough to create some power failures, so be ready for that. In the north, there won't be enough ice to cause many problems in tha regard, but high winds later today could be an issue.

The intense storm center will move over western Massachusetts and into coastal Maine this afternoon. If  you have a barometer, check it out this afternoon. It will be awfully low. Strong storms usually create strong winds, so you'll feel that later today.

By the time the wind begins to howl by this afternoon, it will have snowed quite a bit in northern Vermont, and many areas in northern Vermont will see snowfall rates of one or two inches per hour. That's very heavy snow. Those strong winds, gusting as high as 40 mph risk causing whiteout conditions this afternoon and evening. Yet another reason to not go out.

By the way, this winter storm is not just a Vermont issue, of course. Southern Quebec, northern New York, much of New Hampshire and most of Maine also face heavy snow, strong winds and ice.

Back here in Vermont, It'll be rough this evening, but snow will taper off and end overnight, as it gets very cold.  If you're digging out Saturday morning, dress for it.  The day will start with temperatures of near zero degrees.

Vermont Evening Storm Update: Deep Snow NW; Ugly Mix Then Snow Elsewhere

The latest National Weather Service snow forecast map.  Notice
the change from this morning: The heaviest snow is further
north and west. 

Often, you can tell whether a storm will have a big impact on Vermont as it comes up the coast by looking what happens in the southeastern United States.

If things are ugly in the Southeast, then there's a good chance we'll have a humdinger of a storm hours later in northern New England.

Today, the Southeast was plagued by a series of severe storms and tornadoes. Flash flooding is also widespread down there.

This storm has a lot of moisture to work with. So yeah, Vermont's going to get quite a bit of precipitation between now and Friday night.

Where you are in Vermont and surrounding areas really depends upon precisely where you are. The far northwestern part of the state looks like it will get buried in snow, according to updated National Weather Service forecasts late this afternoon. The further south and east you go, the more sleet and freezing rain comes in.

Today's semi-stormy Vermont weather was well ahead of the main show.   As expected, most of Vermont got two to five inches of snow, followed by some mixed precipitation in central and southern areas this afternoon.

I only got 2.1 inches of new snow in St. Albans, in the northwestern corner of Vermont. There so far has been no mixed precipitation up here, but as I shoveled this first installment, it seemed pretty dense, hinting at a high water content.  At least the fact that there was no mix up here resulted in a fairly pretty winter day in northwestern Vermont, especially if you like snow.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington put out this
ice accumulation forecast map this afternoon. Orange areas
would get a tenth of an inch of ice. Red areas could see a quarter inch
before it all changes to snow Friday. 

Late this afternoon and early this evening, some areas of Vermont have found a lull, with no precipitation falling.

Patches of mixed precipitation will cross over Vermont overnight. It won't amount to too much, but it will be a harassing situation in terms of road conditions and that type of thing.

There are some changes in the overall forecast compared to this morning's outlook.   I knew that would happen, as this is a complex storm.

At this point, far northwestern Vermont will see periods of mostly snow overnight, though some sleet or even freezing rain could mix in.

Elsewhere, southeast of a line from Plattsburgh to Jay Peak, says the National Weather Service, it'll be a mixed bag.

It doesn't seem like precipitation will be too, too heavy overnight, but any amount of mixed precipitation is a pain in the butt.

Friday still looks like a total show stopper.  The storm coming out of the Southeast will consolidate. It will be rapidly strengthening and a whopper of a storm by the time it reaches New England.

Forecasters are still looking at a band of very intense precipitation on the northwestern flank of the storm.  Very heavy snow will develop in northern New York early in the morning and move east into the Champlain Valley by mid morning, according to the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

A steady, day long light snow today in St. Albans, Vermont amounted
 to two inches and pretty, snow laden pine trees in my yard.
Friday will be much more wild than this as the winter storm
intensifies. Lots of snow northwest, ice southeast

Especially south of St. Albans in the Champlain Valley, it's possible you'll be lulled into a false sense of security if you get up early and get ready for work.  Not much will be falling from the sky, but as the early to mid morning wears on, it'll puke snow.

It might start as mixed precipitation but it will rapidly go over to snow. The initial mixed precipitation Friday morning  is least likely up by St. Albans and most likely from Burlington south and east.

This morning, it looked as if most of Vermont north of Route 2 would get a good foot and a half of snow.  Now, that deepest snow will mostly in the northern Champlain Valley and west of the Green Mountains  - north of Burlington and in northern New York.

But it will be at least as awful further south and east across northern and central Vermont.  A good dose of sleet and freezing rain in the morning will turn into a a burst of very heavy snow that will last a few hours as it moves northwest to southeast during the day.

Most areas in Vermont will have turned over to snow by mid-afternoon.

You're going to see a sharp gradient in snow accumulation from northwest to southeast, at least if Thursday evening forecasts hold.  The initial guess calls for accumulations of around 19 inches in St. Albans, maybe a foot around Burlington, and perhaps six inches by the time you get down to Montpelier.  (I'm lifting that info from the NWS Burlington forecast map.)

In a way, though, the back-breaking shoveling I'm going to have to do up in St. Albans might be better than the alternative.

Ice accumulation south of Route 2 looks like it will be at least a tenth of an inch.  Try dealing with that kind of ice in your driveway then snow on top of that.  Or worse, try to be a state or town public works crew trying to clear that mess from the roads.

Even though there are slight changes in the forecast from this morning, my advice remains the same. Stay home Friday if you can.  I noticed a lot of schools have already announced they are shut down on Friday and a lot of events are canceled. That's a very good thing, in my opinion. The fewer people on Vermont roads Friday, the better.

I mentioned this will be a strong storm. That means strong winds. As temperatures crash, the snow will get more and more lighter and powdery.  That means lots of blowing and drifting snow Friday night as winds gust to more than 30 mph.

By the way, with a fresh snow pack on the ground, clearing skies and light winds Saturday night, we'll have the coldest night of the winter.  On the bright side, it hasn't been a cold winter, so the coldest night of the winter Saturday night means lows between 5 and 20 below.  Nothing extreme by Vermont standards.

Beyond that, the weather pattern looks like it will stay active, but I don't see any immediate signs of another huge storm in the coming week or so.  Small systems, yes, but no blockbusters.

Another Messy Vermont Storm Due; Could Be A Big One

Here's that familar National Weather Service so forecast map.
The upcoming storm could dump up to a foot of snow across the
north. More or a mixed precipitation event s foreast
further south in Vermont. 

Our recent quiet winter weather is about to come to an end here in the Green Mountain State.

Yet another messy storm is on its way, and if forecasts hold, it will arguably be one of the largest if not the largest winter storm of the season.

It's another one of those storms that has a lot of question marks regarding the intensity and type of precipitation.  Yeah, I'm sick of that scenario, too.

The storm is also going to last a long time, too, starting early Thursday and going on into Friday evening.

Given the questions with this storm, expect a few surprises, as usual, but I'll at least get into the broadbrush outlook for this thing in Vermont in a moment.

WIDESPREAD BAD WEATHER

This is another one of those storms that cause a variety of bad, sometimes dangerous weather across large parts of the United States.

As of Wednesday morning, a roughly 2,700-mile long (very long!)  stripe of winter storm warnings, watches and advisories extended from western Texas all the way to Maine. That of course includes Vermont.

South of the storm, severe thunderstorms and maybe some tornadoes should hit the Gulf Coast states today and the Southeast on Thursday.  In the southern Appalachians and parts of the Southeast, up to five inches of rain could come down with this storm, so flooding is an obvious concern there.

VERMONT IMPACTS

That flooding concern in the Southeast is a hint that this storm could bring lots of precipitation to at least parts of Vermont. The storm has a lot of moisture to play with, and it seems poised to dump a good portion of it on the state. It's a complicated forecast, so there's bust potential. Anything other than locusts could come out of the sky with this one.

But here's how the National Weather Service in South Burlington and other meteorologists currently think this will play out.

It'll come through in waves, with the first one passing quickly through Vermont before and during the Thursday morning commute.  So plan on taking extra time on your trip to work. It will be the first of several problematic commutes. It'll snow hard for awhile, but it won't last long, which will leave us with maybe two to four inches of powder.

Which will quickly be covered up with a bit of freezing drizzle. Not much, mind you, but enough to be bothersome. It'll just be patches of that drizzle, or light freezing rain here and there for most of Thursday afternoon and night. The roads won't be perfect Thursday afternoon and evening, but at least it won't be too cold, so the salt should work on the main routes.

Friday, we get into the bigger Round Two. By then, a strong storm will move northeastward along or near the New England coast.  Meanwhile, cold air will be trying to push in from the northwest. When you get a situation like that, you often get a band of very heavy snow or some type of precipitation somewhere along the northwestern side of the storm.

Part of Vermont could well be in that zone, so there's a good chance that someplace in the Green Mountain State could be in that band of very heavy snow for a few hours on Friday.

It's very hard to predict exactly where that relatively narrow band of heavy snow will set up, and how hard the snow will fall.

In any event, any mixed precipitation will change to snow from northwest to southeast Friday morning and early afternoon.  It looks like many places across northern Vermont could get a good foot of snow out of this.  A winter storm watch is up for northern Vermont for this reason.

The further south and east you go, the less snow accumulation you'll get because of the longer period of mixed precipitation or even plain rain before the changeover to snow.  A winter weather advisory is in effect in the southern half of Vermont, at least for now. There's a chance that that advisory could be updated to a winter storm warning, if things begin to look even worse down there than currently forecast.

I worry that it might.  There could be a period of heavy sleet or freezing rain before the changeover i parts of southern and eastern Vermont.  It remains to be seen, of course.

Needless to say, both the Friday morning and afternoon commute will be crappy to say the least.

As always, this tricky forecast is subject to change. More mixed precipitation could work its way into northern Vermont than expected. Or the opposite could happen, with more snow and less mix in the south than we now anticipate.

Also, as usual, the tail end of the storm is easiest to forecast.  Snow will retreat to the moutains and western slopes of the Greens Friday night. The wind will pick up, so blowing snow will be a problem. And temperatures will crash with a brief shot of Arctic air behind the storm.

Saturday will see clearing and cold weather. Then, starting Sundaty,  it's back to the cloudy, mild weather pattern we've been in lately.

Vermont Snow Update: Remarkably Few Changes In Forecast

That old familiar National Weather Service snowfall map again.
Least snow in the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys
with this one. Southern and northern ends of Vermont and the
Green Mountains do the best. 

Yet another moderate snowfall is coming our way, as we mentioned yesterday.

As of this Saturday morning, forecasts for this storm have remarkably changed pretty much not one iota since yesterday morning.

It was below zero early this morning across much of the region. This even as high clouds from the storm shroud the skies, shutting of the radiational cooling we had overnight to bring on these subzero temperatures.

Those clouds will thicken and lower pretty fast through the morning and snow will break out this afternoon across Vermont.

The snow will overspread Vermont southwest to northeast starting near Bennington early in the afternoon and reaching St. Johnsbury and points north and east later in the afternoon.  So if you've got errands to do today, finish them up before noon.

As we said yesterday, the front end of the storm will bring the heaviest snow.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington says it could come down at a rate of up to an inch per hour, especially in the time frame between about 4 p.m. today and midnight, depending upon where you are.

All this means the worst of this storm will come Saturday evening, so watch it if you have plans later today and tonight. Or just do what you were going to do some other night and stay home. That's what I'm doing. Netflix, anyone?

Given the south and southwesterly flow aloft, southern Vermont, and south facing slopes of other Vermont mountains and the Adirondacks will probably get the most snow, especially from this initial burst this evening.

Because the strong winds aloft will cause a "shadow" effect on the moisture coming in with the storm on the lee of the mountains, places like the Champlain Valley will probably have a little less snow than elsewhere.  Going forecasts call for three or four inches around Burlington, for instance.

As the storm begins to move east of us late tonight and especially tomorrow, winds will turn more southwesterly and westerly. That would limit additional snowfall in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys to just spotty light snow and flurries.

On the western slopes and summits of the Green Mountains, though, snow will  probably continue all day, with additional accumulations for you winter sports lovers out there.  It'll get pretty windy, so expect more blowing and drifting snow, like we did near the end of Thursday's snow.

Temperatures will be a bit weird through all this. It'll gradually warm up from this morning's subzero lows, and keep rising well into the 20s to near 30 overnight. But instead of continuing to rise during the day Sunday, like it normally would, readings will start to fall again through the day.

We have another brief semi-Arctic shot coming, with highs in the teens and lows near 0 Monday and Tuesday before it starts to warm up again.

Overall, the National Weather Service is calling for a general snowfall of three to eight inches. Higher amounts than that will be common in southern Vermont, and in the higher elevations of the central and northern Green Mountains.

Some of the big winners in the high elevations in far southern and in northern Vermont could easily see more than ten inches of new fluff out of this.  Overall, it will be another medium size storm, nothing we can't survive if we don't all go out and drive like idiots.

Vermont Snowfall Seems To Be Working Out Just As Expected

Looking out of my St. Albans, Vermonthouse past the wreath at a newly
nowy deck and surroundings

It's 11 a.m. on a lazy winter Thursday in St. Albans, Vermont.

I haven't even been outdoors yet, but it looks as if we have a good six inches of new snow at least out there, and it's still snowing a little bit.

It's one example of many of a moderate Vermont January snowfall that has pretty much worked out just as forecast.  

There are many reports of snow fall totals of near six inches so far. The most I've seen so far is 7.7 inches in Orange, Vermont, but I'm sure we'll get updates with higher totals.

Areas in the winter storm warning across the north and mountains had been under a forecast for six to 10 inches of accumulation, so it looks like the predictions will be spot on.

A few areas in the winter weather advisory areas that had been expected to get three to five inches are on the high end of that prediction.  The National Weather Service office in South Burlington, in that winter weather advisory zone, reports 5.5 inches of new snow, and was still snowing lightly there late this morning.

For most of us, the heaviest snow is behind us as of 11 a.m. Snow showers will continue  for many of us, but it won't amount to anything huge. Maybe a couple inches, with more in the mountains.  And isn't nice for this winter to get through an entire storm in which it just snows, and we don't get any ice, sleet, yuckiness and schmutz?

However, winter storm warnings continue across the north and mountains until 7 p.m. today, and winter weather advisories continue until the same time elsewhere.

That's a good move on the part of the National Weather Service in South Burlington.  As I said, light snow is continuing, roads are bad, and the wind is getting ready to pick up.

That'll really blow the snow around quite a bit through this afternoon. Visibility will be a problem with this blowing snow, especially in open areas.  Winds will gust to over 30 mph, so that's more than enough to cause a lot of blowing and drifting. If you went to work today, the drive home will probably be tricky, too.

I'm noticing winds just starting to pick up in St. Albans now. The snow is beginning to blow off the trees.

Temperatures were still on the mild side as of 11 a.m.,, hovering near 30 degrees. They'll start to fall this afternoon, and that will set us up for definitely a frigid spell.

By early tomorrow morning, actual temperatures will be near 0 and wind chills could be as nasty as 25 below.  As they say, bundle up, children!

It won't get that warm Friday afternoon, either.  Most of us Vermonters will stay at or below 10 degrees for highs.

The next storm comes in Saturday with a quick squirt of warmer air and also a quick squirt of snow.

At this point, the fast moving weekend storm won't have time to drop much snow, but a lot of spots will get a few more inches. So that's nice, I suppose.

Another Arctic cold spell, this one lasting longer than the one coming in tonight, will hit Sunday night through Wednesday.  The cold won't be anything spectacular for a Vermont January, but the air still will have a definite bite.

Look for lows at or below 0 for the first half of next week and highs in the single numbers and teens.

It looks, tentatively at least, that we're also entering a drier weather pattern.  I suppose it's possible some type of storminess might come up from the south or west in the final 10 days of the month, but that prospect is looking iffy at best.

Temperatures in the closing third of January also look like they will be near to a little below normal in Vermont, perhaps trending back to a little warmer than normal at the tail end of January.

Long range forecasts are not always accurate, so don't really take my word on this. But we do know one thing.  Winter's back!

Vermont Snow Tonight, Thursday Will Be Bigger Deal Than First Thought

The famous National Weather Service snow forecast map is back!
Northern areas will get the most snow out of the next system
tomorrow. Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see.

Yesterday, I told you Vermont, after a long period of warmer than normal temperatures, is at the start of a snow cover rebuilding period.

That snow cover will come in with a bigger initial oomph than first thought, at least across a good portion of Vermont.

Some areas will get more than half a foot of snow, which is a start, anyway.

The storm coming in from the southwest overnight will be strengthening as it does so.  It's a pretty dynamic system, so by the time it gets here, it will have enough energy to give us a pretty good amount of snow.  

The system has a lot of "lift" to it.  That means it will really encourage air to rise over us as more, fairly moist air comes into replace it.  Rising air means moisture in that air condenses and fall as precipitation. In general, the better the lift the heavier the precipitation.

So, the bottom line is we have a pretty good slug of snow coming in. This won't be a blockbuster in the grand scheme of things, but it looks like its going to be a relatively nice dump, especially in the northern mountains.

Total accumulation might be as little as two inches in far southeastern Vermont, but most of us can expect three to five inches of snow, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

The northern Champlain Valley, say around St. Albans, much of the rest of Vermont north of Route 2 and the central and northern Green Mountains are in for at least six inches of snow.

Where the six inch plus totals are expected, a winter storm warning is up, going from 11 p.m. tonight to 7 p.m. Thursday.  For the rest of us, there's a winter weather advisory. 

The heaviest snow looks like it will come during the early and perhaps mid morning. So yeah, your morning commute is going to be tricky. Plan on that. Starting tomorrow morning and especially in the afternoon, the wind will really pick up, so there will be a lot of blowing and drifting snow to deal with.  You'll be dealing with that when you come home from work in the afternoon.

There won't be much snow falling in the valleys by afternoon, but the mountains and western slopes should continue to see some more accumulating snow.

Gusts will easily go over 30 mph, so you'll notice it. Temperatures will also be falling during the course of the day, setting us up for the coldest cold shot since mid-December, or maybe since last winter.

It'll get near or below zero Thursday night, not climb out of the single digits Friday afternoon, then go below zero again Friday night, with the coldest areas getting close to 15 below.

That's not unusual at all for a Vermont January, but since we haven't really seen anything like that this last winter, it might come as a bit of a shock.

It still looks like it will snow over the weekend, but at this point, it doesn't look huge. Maybe another moderate three to five incher, we'll see.

Another sharp Arctic spell will return early next week.

Weird, Wild, Dangerous Storm Gets Under Way Today

 I love these three big trees in my St. Albans, Vermont back yard. I
definitely risk losing them to the oncoming ice storm, unfortunately. 

Up here where I live in Franklin County, Vermont, I'm already mourning the likely loss of some trees I love in my yard.

There's that damn ice storm coming, that's whh.

I already lost a beautiful willow tree to the storm back on November 1.  I have three enormous poplars in the back yard. They're just wonderful. But they don't hold up well in heavy ice accumulations.  So, maybe I'll lose those.

A row of cedar trees has grown up over the years on the south side of the property facing the road. They've helped turned the back yard into a private Eden. Cedars don't hold up in ice, either. So they're gone.  

That's why we can't have nice things, right?

Maybe I'm overstating this. I hope I am. Maybe the trees will be saggy under the ice for a couple days then everything will be fine. I just don't like the risk. I love my trees almost as much as I love my precious two dogs.

Regarding the ic, forecasts have been pretty consistent for days now as to what will happen with this storm. It's still looking like the northern border counties of Vermont and New York will get a ton of ice. Slightly further south, there's a flood risk.

I'll get into the specifics in a minute, but first let's set this storm up.  It is a weird one.

First of all, conditions are very ripe in the South for severe weather because winds veering with height south and east of the storm center. Ahead of the main line of severe thunderstorms with this system, supercells could easily develop. They have the potential to bring strong, long lasting tornadoes to parts of eastern Texas and Oklahoma and parts of Lousiana and Arkansas. Huge hailstones might fall with these, too.

A squall line of severe thunderstorms will also form and zoom eastward today, tonight and tomorrow through the Gulf Coast states.

A low-level jet, which is a current of fast-moving air a couple to a few thousand feet over the Earth's surface, will be going over this region. The low level jet is a product of this strong storm system and is unusually strong, as it's expected to reach speeds of up to 100 mph.

It's so strong people in the Gulf Coast states will probably be able to hear it roaring overhead.

This squall line will be able to grab chunks of this high speed air from a few thousand feet overhead and bring it to the surface. That means there's going to be a lot of wind damage with this. There will probably be widespread gusts of 75 mph or more with some of these storms.

Worse, the air will still be veering with height, so there probably will be some embedded tornadoes with this dangerous squall line.

Luckily, we in New England don't have to worry about this aspect of the storm, although there is a chance of gusty thunderstorms in southern New England Sunday.

The forecasts have been steady as she goes as the storm lifts northeastward later tonight, Saturday and into Sunday. Along the storm path, a broad band of heavy rain has prompted a widespread area of flood watches extending from northeastern Texas, through the Midwest, parts of the Great Lakes and on into central Vermont.

North and west of that line, it appears there will be a nearly equally broad band of damaging freezing rain. It'll extend from Oklahoma and Missouri, up through Illinois, into the Great Lakes and on into Ontario and southern Quebec, and northern New England.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Expected ice amounts in northern areas. I expect there to be somewhat
thicker ice than this. You start to see some damage at a quarter
inch thick. At a half inch, damage starts to get more substantial.

Of course you've noticed by now I've mentioned flood watches and a risk of damaging ice in Vermont in this post.

One thing that gives me confidence this forecast is fairly accurate is the computer models, and the forecasts, have been pretty consistent for days.

As always, the devil is in the details.  

The details are a forecasting nightmare.  The temperature gradient across Vermont Saturday night will be extreme.

 I have a feeling that somewhere in western Vermont, there will be a 30-mile or less zone where the temperature goes from the mid 50s to around 32 degrees south to north. As you can imagine, that makes it basically impossible to tell who gets what and when.

The broad brush expectation from the National Weather Service in South Burlington will have to do, then.

The (very reasonable) way they see things developing is this:

It's windy today, especially in the Champlain Valley, as you've surely noticed. That'll keep temperatures rising through the 30s and 40s during the day today and tonight.  There might be a little rain around, but not much.

In southern areas of Vermont especially, temperatures will keep rising into the 50s to possibly near 60  as we get into Saturday.

Meanwhile, as the real rain begins in earnest, that low level cold front will slip down from Canada into northern Vermont and adjacent New York and New Hampshire.

How far south the cold front gets, and whether it wobbles north at times during the storm, will determine how much ice will accumulate.  Remember, it will stay quite warm a few thousand feet overhead. So we won't get any snow, except maybe at the very tail end of the storm.

Instead, rain will fall into that thin layer of subfreezing air near the surface and freeze on contact.

Generally speaking, you start to see scattered power outages and tree damage when ice gets to be about a quarter inch thick.  At half an inch, the damage gets pretty extensive. At three quarters to an inch thick, there's widespread, serious tree damage and also widespread, long-lasting power failures.

Early thoughts are Burlington's ice accumulation will be around a quarter of an inch. Bad, but not the end of the world.

But when you get to the northern border counties, we're talking a half inch of ice or more, which is definitely serious. There could be ice at least an inch thick in New York's St. Lawrence Valley.  That area is really in trouble.

Of course, if the freezing rain begins earlier than expected and lasts longer than we think now, everything would be even worse. Stay tuned.  For now, there's a winter storm watch for this scenario in the northern border counties.

Here are some tips for those of you in the expected ice zone:

--- Charge up your devices before the storm.  The power outages might last a long time.

--- Get battery operated candles and lights ready, too. Make sure in advance you have plenty of extra batteries.

---- Fill up the car with gas, too. If the power is out, the gas stations can't pump gas. Don't park under trees, as branches or the whole thing might come down. If you park outside, consider covering your vehicle with a tarp. It'll be easier to get the ice off when this storm is over.

----  Get some cash, too.  If you need to buy anything, especially in an emergency, stores with no power won't be able to process your credit or debit card

---- If you're going to use an electric generator, for gawd's sake make sure no fumes get in the house and everything exhausts outside. You don't want to die of carbon monoxide poisoning.

-----This being Captain Obvious, but stay away from downed power lines and out from under trees.  You never know when a branch will snap off.

At this point,  it's still seeming like precipitation will be mostly plain rain from very roughly Route 2 south, although there might be periods and pockets of freezing rain, too.

There's an inch or two of rain or melted ice coming with this storm, plus the squirt of warm air will melt what snow we have out there. So, there's a floo warning from immediately south of winter storm warning zone near the border down to Rutland and Windsor counties.

Precipitation will be somewhat lighter in far southern Vermont, which means so far, there's no flood alerts there.

The rain, and freezing rain and whatever else will end Sunday afternoon, but the ice will stay on everything in the north. Gusty winds will cause additional power outages and tree damage. Ugh.

I don't know about you, but I am NOT looking forward to this storm.

Storm Update: Huge Plains Mess Today; New England Mess Monday

Ice covers trees in my St. Albans yard in 2017. Scenes like this
will be common in parts of the upper Midwest, Ontario and New York
and New England between now and Monday.

That ongoing, slow moving winter storm out in the middle of the nation is, as expected, creating a mess in the middle of hte nation and will continue to do so through the weekend.

This storm is a slow mover, especially compared to the usual fast pace of weather systems this time of year.

This makes the winter weather with this storm even more long-lasting, annoying and disruptive than usual. The storm will also be remembered as one that will have spread ice through large sections of the Plains and elsewhere.  

Then, the action will skip to New England by Sunday night and Monday, and there will be a huge mess there, too. More on that down below, but first we'll get into what's going on in the Plains.

A wide stripe from western Nebraska, central South Dakota, eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota is still getting or going to get socked by eight to 20 inches of snow.  Just east of that, in eastern Nebraska, northwestern Iowa southeastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota, they're in for rain, freezing rain, sleet, then snow, blowing snow and gusty winds, so it will be a real mess where I am in Yankton, South Dakota.

In parts of southwestern Minnesota, an ice storm warning is in effect.  Freezing rain could accumulated to as thick as a half inch, which is more than enough to bring down trees and power lines.

A little to the south in Iowa, a few areas could see enough rain to cause some localized flooding

All this precipitation in South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa is unwelcome for another reason. This year will roughly tie last year as the wettest year on record in this region.  Despite what has been until now a relatively dry December, the ground is still totally soaked from two years of unprecedented rain and other precipitation.

The snow and ice will have to eventually melt, which will just provide more excess water. The James River in South Dakota, unbelievably, has been constantly in flood stage since March.

Further south, broadly in the area where Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas and Oklahoma meet, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms and perhaps a tornado or two later today and tonight.

ON TO NEW ENGLAND

This is just one forecast among many varying ones regarding the
potential for ice Monday. This map depicts ice accumulation
of more than a half inch in darker pink areas. That's enough to
cause damage. I would emphasize this is just one computer run
on one model and results will likely be very different, and likely
not as bad as this forecast indicates. Still something to
with out for, though. 

As the strong storm center moves into the Great Lakes, its warm front will want to come in from the southwest, bringing plenty of moisture for steady precipitation with it.

Meanwhile, cold high pressure way up in Quebec will be stubborn as hell, and not let the warm air advance.

The warm air will try to go up an over the cold air, which sets much of New England and New York up for mixed precipitation. A large section of Ontario is under the gun for freezing rain and sleet, too.

The battle between the cold and warm looks like it will reach a stalemate right over or near northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and maybe Massachusetts, so tha'ts the zone we have to really watch for ice and sleet.

Early indications are the freezing rain would be the biggest problem from the northern Adirondacks, southeastward into far southern Vermont, and into central New England, say in a broad area around Worcester.

There's a risk -not a certainty! -  these areas could see a damaging ice storm. The prolonged nature of the freezing rain from perhaps Sunday night through Monday, could bring enough freezing rain accumulations to bring down trees and power lines.

Remember, this freezing rain zone could end up being a little north and east, or a little south and west of current forecasts, so everybody in and around Vermont will want to watch this one.

People just to the northeast of the most intense freezing rain zone could end up getting a lot of sleet. I suppose that's better, because sleet doesn't accumulate on power lines and trees, it just bounces off. But if you get a bunch of sleet, it's heavier than hell to shovel away.  Far northern New England, maybe northern New Hampshire and a good chunk of Maine stand to get at least several inches of snow.

A secondary storm will likely form south of New England and move northeastward.  That would eventually help colder air leach in through all layers of the atmosphere, which would change much of the rain to snow.

Meanwhile, the parent low over the Great Lakes will slowly weaken and drift toward New England. All this means that the ski areas of Vermont and surrounding states will get a long period of snow. This would go probably from Monday night well into Wednesday.

It won't snow super hard, butthe long duration means the ski slopes would get many inches of recovery snow.  Temperatures won't be very cold, so the light snow would mix with rain in some of the valleys. Plus precipitation will be even lighter in the valleys than in the mountains.

This whole New England forecast, especially for the ice Sunday night and Monday will almost definitely change. This whole essay just gives you an idea of what we might expect. Stay tuned for inevitable adjustments to the forecast.

Bottom line: Expect lousy travel throughout the region Monday, with a risk of spotty power outages and tree damage.