Big Dorian Changes. And Up Here in Vermont, Autumn Arrives

Intense Hurricane Dorian Saturday morning. Click on the picture and
make it bigger. You can see the storm's distinct 10-15 mile wide
eye and an intense solid eye wall of powerful winds
immediately surrounding it.

Formidable Hurricane Dorian continued to churn toward the northwestern Bahamas this Saturday morning, packing sustained winds of 145 mph, says the National Hurricane Center. It's a strong category 4 storm, almost as bad as it gets.

It might strengthen a little more today, then there will be some fluctuations in strength as it approaches Florida.

Forecasts for a hurricane's path often change due to subtle shifts in the atmosphere and Dorian is no exception. It's possible Florida might catch a break after all.

For the past several days forecasts had Dorian plowing somewhere into the eastern coast of Florida. A ridge of high pressure to Dorian's north would steer it that way.

While Dorian might still come ashore in Florida, computer models and the National Hurricane Center are now latching on to a different scenario.
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Essentially, Dorian seems like it might pull a Matthew.

Hurricane Matthew in 2016 was another powerful hurricane and it was feared then that it would smack into Florida's east coast. Instead, it moved northward, paralleling the coast, and finally came ashore in South Carolina while weakening.

This spared Florida the full, dangerous effects of Matthew. It's beginning to look like Dorian will do the same. The ridge of high pressure north of Dorian that is steering it looks like it will collapse just before Dorian gets to Florida. It now appears like the storm might move north off the coast of Florida like Matthew did. We shall see.

Of course, slow moving Matthew was still incredibly destructive in the United States, as it unleashed massive, record setting floods in the Carolinas and Georgia.

All this means is the United States is by no means off the hook with Hurricane Dorian. It will probably weaken somewhat as it approaches the southeastern United States coast midweek. And it will be close enough to the coast Sunday through the first half of the week to produce damaging winds, destructive storm surges and very heavy rain.

And flooding. Most of Matthew's United States destruction was due to its slow movement which allowed torrential rains to linger over the Carolinas and Georgia for a long time.

Dorian will also be moving very slowly, so we're probably looking at a repeat of serious Southeast United States flooding and storm surges with this.

Plus, the northwestern Bahamas look like they will feel the full effects of a powerful Category 4 hurricane, so there will be a big disaster there, too.

As always, there will be more adjustments to the projected path of Dorian, so stay tuned.

AUTUMN IN VERMONT?

August in Vermont has been close to normal temperature wise, or even a bit on the warm side, but now that the month is closing, fall weather is inevitable.

Just in time, here it comes.

Tonight will be rather cool in the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks, where it could get into the upper 30s. No biggie for this time of year, but still.

Then on Monday, rain and clouds will hold daytime highs down in the 60s. If I'm not mistaken, that would be Burlington's first high temperature under 70 degrees since June 13.

After a brief warmup midweek with showers, it looks like we'll have a few autumnal days late in the week with highs in the 60s again. If we get any clear, calm nights during that period, I wouldn't be surprised to see a little frost in the coldest hollows of northern Vermont, New Hampshire and New York. It's that time of year!

Worries Grow As Dorian Continues Targeting Florida

Bigger and meaner. Dorian looking larger and more intense
than it did yesterday or the day before.

Hurricane Dorian, becoming more and more formitable, continues on a path that continues to look like it will smash Florida.

Chances are now very high that it will come ashore as a major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, with winds of up to 140 mph, devastating storm surges and torrential rains which will cause severe inland flooding.

Yep, another disaster is in the works. 

The National Hurricane Center this morning said Dorian had top winds of 110 mph and forecasters say all kinds of factors are at play to make the storm strengthen more.

The water Dorian is passing over is very warm. Upper level winds are light, which hurricanes like.  Early in its life, Dorian battled dry air. The air surrounding Dorian keeps getting more humid the further west it goes. 

Regarding the track, computer models have been "windshield wipering," as they say, for the past couple of days and that might continue. By this I mean, forecasts have Dorian coming ashore further south, then north, then south in or near Florida. This kind of "windshield wipering" is common with forecasts leading up to a major hurricane.

Really, it doesn't matter that much in precisely what city Dorian comes ashore at.  It will cause big problems over a wide area of Florida. This is true even if Dorian manages to curve north just along or off the east coast of Florida, as a small minority of computer models indicate.

Here's a few other things to consider with Dorian:

Coastal flooding, in small part tied to Dorian, is already happening in the Southeast. The new moon is causing "King Tides" which are higher than normal tides created by the position of the moon.  Climate change has contributed to sea level rise, so King Tides have been routinely causing flooding in places like Miami and Charleston, South Carolina.

Easterly winds created by high pressure that's steering Dorian toward Florida and pushing even more water up against the shore from Miami to Cape Hatteras. Damaging coastal floods are starting to occur even though Dorian is nowhere near the United States yet. 

In the "here we go again" department, it looks like there's a good chance that Dorian's forward motion could slow down dramatically in or near Florida. That would prolong the torrential rains and surges and wind from Dorian. That would also worsen inland flooding. It seems we're going through these hurricane "stalls" a lot lately, what with the slow motion of Hurricanes Harvey, Florence and Matthew in recent years.

If you know anyone living in Florida, tell them to get ready if they haven't already.  Dorian at this point is expected to make landfall on Monday.  Tropical force winds and rain could arrive as early as Saturday, so things should be getting done now.

And for gawd's sake if the emergency managers tell you to evacuate, go. Don't ride this out. I'm sure evacuation notices will start flying today if they haven't already, so be ready to leave if you're in the hurricane zone.

I suppose it's possible Dorian could unexpectedly weaken before reaching Florida, or take a surprise turn away. But the chances of that happening look pretty slim at this point.

One last thought: Some long range forecasting models bring Dorian or its remains to eastern New England in about a week. That's speculation at this point, but we'll eventually have to watch and see what happens in that regard.

Dorian Mostly Misses Puerto Rico, But Florida Might Be Screwed

Healthy looking Hurricane Dorian, now well north of Puerto Rico
as seen here Thursday morning. 

Hurricane Dorian went through quite a strengthening phase on Wednesday, becoming a hurricane at least two days before most forecasters expected it to.

That it largely missed Puerto Rico is obviously good, since Dorian's peak winds had increased to 85 mph.  Not a lot of new destruction there.

But Dorian didn't interact with land, which means it stayed strong and has a great shot of getting stronger. Florida is still in its sights.

Dorian is still fighting off dry air trying to intrude. A bit of that dry air did get to the core of the storm overnight. But the National Hurricane Center warns that Dorian has a lot going for it. Relatively strong upper level winds, which can squelch hurricanes, are forecast to weaken.

Dorian is over very warm water and will remain over the toasty H2O for the rest of its journey.  That's a recipe for strengthening, and the NHC says rapid strengthening is possible over the next couple of days.

Strength forecasts for hurricanes are very tricky. Anything could happen. But the National Hurricane Center says Dorian could come ashore in Florida with winds of 125 mph - a major, destructive hurricane. Like we need another one, after Harvey, Florence, Irma and Michael over the past couple of years caused so many billions of dollars in damage in the United States.

High pressure to the north is still forecast to keep Hurricane Dorian heading to the northwest, then west toward Florida. The path is still iffy.  And nobody is sure where on the east coast of Florida Dorian might hit. Some models take it to near the Georgia/Florida border. Other models take it as far south as Miami. So the whole state is in play.

The timing now suggests that the worst of Dorian would hit Florida on Monday - Labor Day.

Predictably but wisely, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency, which funnels money and resourses to local governments and emergency managers to get ready for the storm, as The Weather Channel notes. 

People in Florida are spooked and getting ready for the storm. In Orlando, bottled water has already been cleared from shelves by shoppers preparing for Dorian. Lines for gasoline are really long.

However, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel says retailers have ordered extra supplies to be available in the days leading up the the hurricane, and gas supplies are still good.

Some coastal flooding is likely well in advance of Dorian, especially around Miami.  Seasonal king tides, will cause some flooding, and the approaching hurricane might help to push a little extra water ashore.

Another thing to note. If Hurricane Dorian hits south Florida, it would eventually emerge into the Gulf of Mexico. That would create a risk Dorian could gather itself up again, organize and become a threat to the Gulf Coast. We'll see.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Erin fizzled off the United States East Coast. As expected, it contributed to some heavy rain in eastern New England, but there fortunately wasn't a lot of flooding.

Here in Vermont, Erin contributed a bit of moisture to a slow moving cold front, so we benefitted from some decent showers.

Possible Bad News With Tropical Storms Dorian, Erin

Tropical Storm Dorian east of Puerto Rico early this morning. It's
looking more organized than it did yesterday.

As expected, forecasts keep shifting for Tropical Storm Dorian, and as of now, the news is worse for Florida, which could end up taking a nasty hit.

Land interaction, which could have potentially killed Dorian if it went over Puerto Rico or especially the Dominican Republic.  

Now it looks like Tropical Storm Dorian will just clip eastern Puerto Rico before head northwest into warm, open waters, where it could strengthen. That means it won't be over land long enough to get destroyed.

Top sustained winds with Dorian this morning were up to 60 mph, and the Natonal Hurricane Center says the storm definitely looks better organized than yesterday.

Dorian is going to cause problems in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today. Puerto Rico is especially vulnerable. Their electrical system is still a mess after Hurricane Maria two years ago. Tropical storm force winds will be enough to wreck the lines once again.

Even more so than yesterday, Florida had better watch out for Dorian. It will be mostly over open water as it moves northwest, then west toward Florida, as it stands now.

Very often, a tropical storm or a hurricane heading northwest near Puerto Rico will curve harmlessly out to sea. But a large high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean looks like it will get in the way, steering Dorian westward toward Florida.

The National Hurricane Center says computer models have Dorian strengthening into a hurricane by Friday and remaining a potentially strong hurricane as it nears the northeast Florida coast on Monday. The NHC also says the hurricane would grow larger in size with time before it hits Florida.

This of course is a preliminary forecast, and the eventual path and strength of Dorian could end up being very different from current forecasts.

But if this prediction stays on track, this would be a rare hurricane hit for northeast Florida. The coastline there sort of curves inward, and hurricanes tend to hit either further south in Florida, or up the coast in the Carolinas.  This one could be serious, and we need to keep an eye on it.

TROPICAL STORM ERIN

That tropical depression off the East Coast yesterday has strengthened into Tropical Storm Erin. It only has sustained winds of 40 mph and won't get much stronger, says the National Hurricane Center. It will also stay well off the East Coast and eventually come ashore somewhere near Nova Scotia late Thursday or early Friday.

So no problem, right?

In this case, wrong. Or at least kinda wrong. A cold front that will give us showers here in Vermont later today will keep trucking deeper into New England. That will draw tropical moisture from Erin northwestward into eastern New England.

Flash flood watches are up for eastern Maine, coastal New Hampshire, eastern and central Massachusetts and Rhode Island later today and tonight. The worst downpours will be hit and miss, but a few spots could get four or five inches of rain in a short period of time, so that's a problem.

Rainfall might be locally  heavy in southeastern Vermont, too, but it likely won't be bad enough to cause any issues.

Tropical Storm Dorian And Other Tropical Updates

Tropical Storm Dorian, as seen in this forecast path,
could make it to Florida by Sunday. But will it survive the trip?

Over the past couple of days little Tropical Storm Dorian has been making its way generally westward across the Atlantic, and still, noboy can figure out how much trouble it will cause.

Dorian is over warm water and there is a lack of strong winds aloft, which favors strengthening.  But it's surrounded by dry air aloft, which is choking the thunderstorms Dorian is trying to develop and get stronger.

All this leaves a lot of questions about how bad this will get. Meanwhile, other parts of the Atlantic are bubbling with activity, which I'll get to in a moment.

Dorian is expected to move by close to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic Wednesday and Thursday. Of course, this isn't terrific news for Puerto Rico in particular, as it continues to struggle with the aftermath of 2017's mega hurricane Maria.

Obviously, Dorian won't be nearly as bad as Maria as it passes by Puerto Rico, but it's still not going to help.

Forecasters have gotten better at predicted the paths of tropical storms and hurricanes, but forecasting their strength still prompts experts to pull their hair out.

Interaction with land usually weakens tropical storms and hurricanes. It's possible this could be like Tropical Storm Erika in 2015, which was similar in size and location to Dorian.  The land interaction around the Dominican Republic destroyed Erika.

Erika did cause death and destruction, especially in Dominica from flooding. Erika scared the bejeezus out of Florida because it seemed headed for that state. But the land interaction and dry air aloft blew Erika apart before it reached Florida.

Dorian's forecast track takes it to Florida by around Sunday, at least that's what current predictions show. With land interaction in Caribbean Islands and dry air aloft choking the system down, will Dorian make it as far as Florida? If it does, which is iffy, how strong will it be? The National Hurricane Center is on it, but it's a tough forecast.

Stay tuned. Sam bat channel.

The other day, we talked about a disturbance near Florida that was threatening to become a tropical storm. Since then, it has to a spot well off the South Carolina coast and has become a poorly organized tropical depression.

Still, it is expected to become Tropical Storm Erin later today.  High winds aloft will keep wannabe Erin from developing much. Current forecasts have it moving northeastward far off the U.S East Coast as a relatively weak tropical storm. It's remains will probably hit Newfoundland, Canada on Saturday.

Vermont "Tornado Drought" Ended Last Wednesday

Tornado damage cleanup continues in Windham, Vermont, as
seen in this photo from WCAX-TV

Vermont is hardly tornado alley.

We average just one tornado per year, and most of those tornadoes over the years have been quite weak.

In recent years, though, Vermont has had a sort of tornado drought.

There hadn't been one since 2012 in the Green Mountain State, even as the rest of New England and the Northeast have had something of an uptick in tornado activity over the past few years. 

Turns out, the Vermont tornado drought, or whatever you want to call it, ended Wednesday. 

The National Weather Service office in Albany, New York confirmed a tornado struck the town of Windham, in southern Vermont last Wednesday. 

By the standards of, say, Oklahoma, this one was weak. But it was relatively strong by Vermont standards. Tornadoes are ranked in a zero to 5 scale, with 5 being the strongest.  This one was an EF-1, almost an EF-2, with winds of betweeen 105 and 110 mph.

The twister damaged the roofs and siding of several homes and sheared off or toppled dozens of trees. Outdoor furniture and other debris was tossed hundreds of yards

The tornado was about 350 yards wide and had a path that was 0.75 miles long. Again, not huge, but fairly impressive for Vermont. Nobody was injured by this tornado, so that's good.

WCAX-TV reports that at one house, the tornado blew out windows, damaged the roof and tossed down a bunch of trees while a terrified family huddled in the home. 

Windham is in a pretty mountainous area, just east of some of southern Vermont's largest ski areas. It's proof that mountains and hills don't necessarily protect you from tornadoes. 

The tornado seems to have been associated with a supercell that got going well northwest of Albany, New York.  The storm also produced confirmed EF-1 tornado touchdowns in Johnstown and Saratoga Springs, New York, NWS New York says.

Quiet, Cloudy Weather Day Saturday, But Really Cool, Strange Satellite Imagery

Most of Saturday was cloudier than expected, especially over northern Vermont.

While the view of the clouds from the ground was kind of dull and gray, fascinating stuff became apparent on satellite imagery, especially for those of us who are weather geeks.

The satellite photo of the clouds is in this post for your reference.  It's a little hard to see what I'm talking about, so click on the photo to make it bigger and easier to discern.

So here's the set up: An incoming large high pressure system trapped moisture in some of the lower layers of the atmosphere. Usually, in the warmer seasons at least, uneven heating helps mix drier air downward from up above, and the clouds dissipate. 

The high pressure was too strong to allow much of that mixing to happen during most of the day, so we were stuck under the clouds that were only about 1,000 feet thick. But thick enough to block out the sun.

In a way, this could be a sign of the season. In the winter, when the sun is much weaker and lower, the heat doesn't make it through the clouds to mix the atmosphere to ultimate chew up the clouds.

That's a big reason why it's so often overcast in Vermont during the winter, especially between November and January, when the sun is lowest.

Perhaps the sun would have broken through earlier Saturday afternoon if it were June or July, not August, when the sun is beginning to wane.

Now, the really cool part of this satellite image is that very narrow band of clear skies, stretching southeastward in the satellite photo from around Montreal into north central Vermont near Jay Peak and on into the Northeast Kingdom. After this photo was taken, the narrow clear line continued moving southwestward and broadened a little bit.

Also note the clouds seem a little thicker than elsewhere just to the west of that clearing band.

I asked for help from the National Weather Service in South Burlington and as always, they got back to me right away with an explanation. I'll do my best here to relay what they told me.

At the time the satellite photo was taken, a weak weather boundary was moving southwestward from eastern Quebec. It was essentially a mini, weak cold front.

A "dry slot" of mostly clear skies behind a cold front is seen in eastern Nebraska,
Kansas and Oklahoma in this old satellite photo.

As the cold front approached, it provided a little lift into the atmosphere. The lift encouraged more cloudiness, which is why those clouds were thicker just to the southwest of that skinny clear line.

Behind this "front," there air sinks. The boundary was basically like a wave coming ashore at a beach. As the wave comes in, the water rises, than falls again as the wave passes. Behind this boundary in northern Vermont, the air was sinking.

Sinking air can warm the atmosphere and that is often death to clouds.  That's probably why there was that narrow band of clear skies. Once that narrow air of sinking air passed, the moisture in the atmosphere was able to reassert itself, and the clouds once again formed in the far Northeast Kingdom and southeastern Quebec.

You see this kind of thing on a much larger scale with strong cold fronts, especially in the late autumn, winter and early spring. These much bigger versions of what we saw in that Vermont satellite photo are usually associated with strong storm systems, not weak, tiny little things that we had affecting us.

Lift ahead of these big cold fronts can often create a solid band of showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front, the air sinks, and you get a band of mostly clear skies known as a "dry slot."

As the narrow line of clear skies continued southwestward across Vermont during the mid-afternoon, it gradually widened, then the clouds over the entire region broke apart. The August sun finally did it's job, mixing the air and melting away that overcast. It was a gorgeous late afternoon and evening.

Right On Cue, Tropical Atlantic Bubbling Up With Possible Storms

Thunderstorms bubble on Friday off the east coast of Florida. This
will probably turn into a tropical storm. Image via NOAA/RAMMB

The oceans always know what season it is.

In the Atlantic Ocean, late August is often the time when tropical storms and potential hurricanes really start to ramp up toward their September peak.

It looks like this year is no exception. The Atlantic Ocean is suddenly bubbling with at least potential activity. Right now, there are no dire threats, but there are things to watch.

We mentioned weak Tropical Storm Chantal a couple days ago.  It dissipated as expected. Its remains are several hundred miles west of the Azore Islands. It could possibly redevelop, but I wouldn't worry about that right now.

What is a bit more worrisome is a developing storm that the National Hurricane Center said this morning was over southern Florida. Over land, things don't develop into tropical storms. But this little storm is expected to move northeastward off the east central Florida coast, where it could easily turn into a tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center gives this area of thunderstorms a 90 percent chance of turning into a tropical storm in the next few days.

You do have to watch tropical storms and wannabe hurricanes near the Florida east coast.They can come north and affect us here in New England. In this case, though, it looks like this wannabe tropical storm will want to move northeast, and stay well off the East Coast.

It could turn into a hurricane out there, so there will probably be some high surf issues on East Coast beaches in the coming days. This thing could also brush southeastern Canada. We'll see.

The wannabe hurricane might also help to stall a cold front midweek approaching from the Great Lakes. That would possibly delay or prolong a period of showery weather around Wednesday up here in Vermont. Again, we'll see how that turns out. It's so uncertain now.

There's another area of disturbed weather way out in the central Atlantic well east of the Lesser Antilles. It is heading west to northwest and has a pretty high chance of turning into another tropical storm

This path eventually toward the Caribbean is a classic one for peak season tropical storms and hurricanes.  It's not clear how well this thing will develop, or even whether it will hold together as it possibly nears the Hispaniola, Puerto Rico,  Cuba and maybe Florida many, many days from now.

I can't see an immediate threat from this, but it needs to be watched carefully over the next week or two.

Yesterday's Cold Front Was Beginning Of End Of Summer

Won't be long until things start looking like this.

I was miserable working outside late Thursday morning in Burlington, Vermont. The air was still with no wind, the humidity was horrendous and sweat was pouring off of me with the intensity of a downpour, I swear.

Suddenly, a breeze pushed in from the west and the humidity vanished almost instantaneously. A cold front had arrived. The dew point, a measure of how humid it is, dropped from an oppressive 66 degrees to a comfortable 54 degrees in just an hour.

I continued to work - much happier now - well into the afternoon. It's amazing how a shot of cooler air can help one's ambitious.

Cold fronts and bouts of lower humidity always come through Vermont during the summer. This one, though, felt like the first hint that summer will end.

Oh sure, there will be more warm to hot days as we finish out August and head into September.  And the humidity will eventually creep back up again. But the average temperature is now falling with shorter days. We'll be getting into what Vermonters call "fair weather."  Kinda even today and tomorrow.

Fair weather is not necessarily the sunny skies the term implies, but in this case the skies will be mostly blue.

Fair weather is that kind of in-between temperature you get in late August and early September when it's not really warm, but not really cool. You wear a t-shirt in the afternoon and snuggle into a hoodie in the evening. This kind of weather comes when local fairs do their annual runs, hence the term.

In this case, the next few days will feature highs in the low to mid 70s under mostly to partly sunny skies. Nights will get into the 40s in many areas. Bring those sweaters and hoodies with you!

You can see other signs of the changing seasons. Some of the weaker sugar maples show hints of color, a preview to the big annual foliage show nature puts on every year.

This has been the second summer in a row in which cold fronts have been lacking in Vermont. It's been consistently toasty.

There are summers in which we feel cheated out of them. You know, the ones where it never seems to get hot, and always rains.

This summer and last featured plenty of true summer weather. I usually feel wistful when "fair weather" hits, confirming that summer is ending. But we had our share this year. I'm ready for autumn.

Storms Were A Bust; Burning Amazon, Tropical Storm Chantal

Water drops rest on one of my Country Club variety day lilies as
the evening sun somes out Wednesday in St. Albans, Vermont.
Areas south of me got much more rain than my gardens did.

Ahead of yesterday's weather, I asked in this blog thingy if it would be boomer or bust. It could have gone either way.

Well, it was a bust, except in far southern Vermont.  Good news if you don't like wind damage to trees and powerlines and such. Bad news if you wanted a lot of rain.

Most of Vermont did manage some weak thunderstorms and most places got some decent rains.

I missed out up here in St. Albans, Vermont with only 0.2 inches. Though we did squeeze out a brief shower this morning for a bit of additional wetting.

Enjoy it, because for most of us, it's not going to rain again for several days.

The storms did prove to be pretty intense further south, including the far two southern counties of Vermont. Tornado warnings went up west of Saratoga Springs, New York, near Lawrence, Massachusetts and near Hartford, Connecticut, but I'm not aware of any confirmed touchdowns.

Today, the actual cold front will come through, so we'll transition during the day from the humid stickiness of this morning to a dry, comfortable evening.

There will be that hint of autumn in the air, especially Friday and Saturday, with high temperatures just making it into the low 70s for many of us, with most of us getting into the 40s at night.

AMAZON BURNING

Smoke from Amazon fires can be seen from space, as you
can see from this satellite photo via The Weather Channel.

A much, much  more serious situation than strong thunderstorms is unfolding in the Amazon rain forest now.

As NPR reports, more than 74,000 fires erupted in the Amazon this year, with 36,000 or so starting within the past month. Big cities like Sao Paulo, Brazil, are getting pretty smoked out by these fires.

Subsistence farming and ranching is responsible for much of the Amazon deforestation and fires, and it hasn't helped that the relative new far right wing Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has railed against enviromental regulations because he thinks it hurts economic development. He has also cut funding and staff to environmental agencies, says NPR.

NPR and other news agencies also say Bolsonaro has baselessly accused NGO's of setting the Amazon fires as revenge against his administration for cutting funding to them. Which is rich. So the NGO's who are trying to save the Amazon are burning it down in a snit.

Bolsonaro sounds a lot like a United States politician whos name rhymes with Frump, but what do I know?

We've been fretting all summer over worrisome wildfires in the Arctic, Siberia and parts of northern Canada, but the Amazon fires could be worse.  The Amazon sucks a lot of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. Destroy the forest, and release the CO2 into the atmosphere to boot, and you get more bad climate change news.

Sigh.

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL

By now, the Atlantic Ocean should be beginning to bubble up with tropical systems, storms and hurricanes. It looked like this year we might have gotten through a rare August without an Atlantic tropical storm.  But then....

Chantal formed the other day at around 40 degrees north latitude, which is awfully far north for a tropical storm to form. It is only one of six tropical storms since at least 1950 to form that far north - basically southeast of Newfoundland, as the Category 6 blog notes. 

This weak tropical storm was able to get going because it was just on the northern edge of the warm Gulf Stream. (Tropical storms and hurricanes need warm water to survive.)

Chantal was always a fairly minimal tropical storm, with top winds in the 40 mph range. It's expected to die out over the central Atlantic any minute now.  However, there are signs that the tropical Atlantic is awakening, so in the coming weeks we're going to have to watch for more tropical storms and hurricanes - ones potentially more threatening than the isolated and lame Chantal.

Boomer Or Bust? Today's Severe Weather Forecast Still Complicated And Iffy

UPDATE 2 PM:

It looks like the greatest severe weather threat this afternoon will be in southern Vermont and especially, southern New England.

One band of showers and storms went through Vermont in the hours surrounding noon, weakening somewhat as they did so.  There was locally heavy rain with this band, but nothing extreme.

As expected, this initial band has stabilized the air over the northern half of Vermont. Lingering rain will mostly end by mid-afternoon, giving the atmosphere a chance to get primed for severe weather again.

But I doubt there will be anything widespread, at least in northern areas. There might be a strong storm or two. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is keeping all of Vermont in the slight risk zone for severe storms.

A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted for central and southern New England, including the two southernmost counties in Vermont.

As of 1:30 p.m. southern New England was already starting to look problematic. A big thunderstorm in Connecticut at that hour was looking supercell-ish to me, and radar indicated it was starting to rotate.

The Storm Prediction Center is still not ruling out a tornado or two in central and southern New England and in eastern New York The risk is quite low, but still there.

More strong thunderstorms seemed to be forming in central New York State as of 1:30 p.m. Those New York state storms are the ones to watch as the head toward southern and possibly central Vermont later this afternoon. One storm near Gloversville, New York, well northwest of Albany, was showing signs of rotation, like the storm in Connecticut, as of 1:45 p.m.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

We know the atmosphere over the Northeast, including Vermont, is volatile enough to produce severe weather today, but will it actually happen.

As of early this morning, strong storms were already marching through far southern Vermont. The storms had prompted a severe thunderstorm warning northeast of Albany, New York around dawn.

Those same storms probably produced 40 mph wind gusts, and certainly had plenty of cloud to ground lightning and torrential downpours as they pass through Bennington and Windham counties between 6 and 7 a.m.

This activity was part of a warm front that will rush very humid air into Vermont by noon today at the latest.

More showers and storms were moving into central New York as of 7 a.m. and if they hold together, they will reach Vermont later this morning or very early this afternoon. They just might, given that a severe thunderstorm warning went up around 7:10 this morning in the Watertown, New York area, along the eastern shore of Lake Ontario. All this is also part of that warm front.

Expect rapid changes in weather, and possible special weather statements and storm warnings in Vermont starting later this morning.

This afternoon, we get into the juicy, unstable air.  However, all these morning storms and lingering clouds this afternoon could help limit the volatility of the air. Meaning severe thunderstorms could end up being relatively few and far between.

By no means are we off the hook, though. Despite the clouds, the atmosphere will be primed for at least a few strong to severe storms.  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has most of New England, including all of Vermont except the extreme northwest tip in a slight risk zone for severe storms today.

If that comes to fruition, there will be scattered reports of severe storms across the region today. The primary threat today is strong straight line winds and microbursts. There is a very, very slight risk of a brief spin up tornado or two in central New England, including the southeastern third of Vermont.

It looks like several rounds of storms might come through -- especially south of Route 2.

The storms will have torrential downpours with them. There might be some local flash flood issues if one particular place gets hit by a "train" of thunderstorms repeatedly nailing the same spot.

The severe weather threat will be over by around sunset. The actual cold front that is helping trigger this messy day won't actually come through until overnight or early tomorrow morning. Unlike what's happening today, the cold front will pass by with little fanfare - just some no-big-deal showers.

After A Nice Tuesday, One More Vermont Severe Weather Threat

Areas in yellow, and to a lesser extent in dark green
have some risk of severe storms on Wednesday. As you
can see, all of Vermont is in this area.

A cold front came through the Northeast late yesterday, which will create a gorgeous late summer day today.

That cold front fired up some strong to locally severe thunderstorms over the eastern half of New England and down the eastern seaboard Monday afternoon.

That front is not done with us yet.

It'll come back north as a warm front Wednesday morning, setting the stage for potentially another round of strong to severe storms in New England, this time maybe including here in Vermont

The humidity will remain low today and much of tonight, but creep back up toward morning. As the warm front lifts north of us, it'll be oppressive by afternoon.

A couple of cold fronts and several other boundaries will be approaching from the west. Upper level winds will strengthen and change direction with height. The humidity and warmth will help feed storms.  The potential is there.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont and surrounding areas solidily in a slight risk zone for severe storms on Wednesday.  The biggest risk would be straight line wind damage. NOAA has not ruled out a couple supercell thunderstorms and maybe a brief spin up tornado somewhere in the slight risk area, but that's certainly not guaranteed.

Of course, there's caveats to that stated threat.

I absolutely agree with the National Weather Service in South Burlington in their weather discussion today. It seems that a day or two before a potential round of severe weather this summer, it looks like ingredients are coming together to produce the bad and dangerous weather.

But when the event arrives, other factors limit the ability for storms to become widespread and severe. A few big storms pop up in these situations, but they're thankfully not as numerous and nasty as first feared. So who knows? The forecast for tomorrow's storms might be a bust. You never know.

In this case, a series of disturbances, basically little mini weather fronts will likely come through during the afternoon and evening. All these could increase cloud cover, which would limit instability. And the little mini fronts might tend to dilute the atmospheric ingredients that need to come together for severe storms.

Still, keep listening to forecasts and if you're out and about on Wednesday, keep an eye to the sky, a weather radio close by and be ready to go inside if storms are approaching. Even if the storms don't turn out to be severe, lightning is always a danger.

More cold fronts will come through Thursday night and Friday, ushering in a hint of autumn for Friday and Saturday.

More Showers And Storms In Forecast, So We'll Just Enjoy This Beagle Watching Hail

A storm over Georgia, Vt on July 31. More scattered storms are
scheduled for Vermont and surrounding areas today.

We continue this morning to enjoy or endure, depending on your perspective, a weather pattern that is giving us rounds of hit and miss showers and storms this morning.

This, after severe storms caused some damage in parts of southern and eastern Vermont Saturday, and some really lightning-charged storms in far southern Vermont Sunday evening. (Fortunately, those storms had weakened some before reaching Vermont.

They caused a fair amount of damage in Saratoga County, New York, not too far from the Vermont border.

A few showers are scattered around parts of the North Country this morning, and a few more storms might pop up this afternoon. Most of those will probably be over and east of the Green Mountains, as it looks now.

After a break Tuesday, more showers and storms will fire up Wednesday, before things turn clearer and autumn-like by Friday.

It's pointless to predict at this point how extensive the storms might be on Wednesday (I'm not expecting anything huge at this point), we might as well enjoy the video, below.

It's a brave little beagle pup, experiencing his first, gusty thunder and hail storm. Some of the storm's loudest moments are a little frightening for this little guy named Smudge, but his curiosity about the storm carries him through. He even gets to snack on some hailstones after the storm blows over.

So here's Smudge to brighten your potentially stormy day:

Saturday's Vermont Storms Were Rambunctious And Interesting

Despite high clouds, that were blowing off the tops of thunderstorms
dozens of miles to the south, new showers tried to get going
near St Albans, last night. Usually, these high clouds
suppress new convection 

The weather outside this Sunday morning and afternoon here in Vermont is quite a bit calmer than it was Saturday afternoon and evening, when some serious thunderstorms hit parts of the state, as expected.

It was a sort of strange looking thing on radar.  A mass of rain with a severe thunderstorm or cluster of strong thunderstorms in the middle moved northeastward through Rutland County, then up into east-central Vermont, ending up between White River Junction and  St. Johnsbury before moving into New Hampshire.  

You could track this storm via storm reports from the National Weather Service in South Burlington. Multiple trees fell around Lake St. Catherine in southwestern Rutland County. The storm moved into West Rutland, knocking down more trees, then took down more trees and power lines in Plymouth, West Hartford and especially in Windsor. The storm went on to cause more damage in Union Village and Thetford.

The thunderstorms over Vermont and as they approached had enormous anvil clouds blowing off the tops of these storms.

The anvil clouds spread all the way beyond St. Albans, producing light to moderate rain from north of Rutland to the Canadian border. I was struck by how dark this thunderstorm complex made things. It was almost like twilight in Burlington, Vermont shortly before 6 p.m., nearly two hours before the sun actually set.

There were only a few pockets of particularly heavy rain with the storms. Vershire got 2.1 inches of rain, and Woodstock got nearly two inches.

More storms are in the forecast here in Vermont, but this forecast is.....complicated. Quick-moving weather disturbances keep zipping on through and will continue to do so for the next couple of  days. Their strength, location and timing is iffy, making forecasts tricky.

There are a lot of subtle factors that are making predictions challenging. Let's start with today.  There's quite a few leftover clouds from yesterday's weather. That will keep the air over us relatively stable, reducing the chances of showers and storms.

Across northern and central areas of Vermont, there could be a quick, random pop up storm or two here and there, but most places are safe.

In southern Vermont, the Capital District of New York and parts of southern New Hampshhire weather disturbance will come in from the west late this afternoon and evening, and that will probably set off some storms.

It's possible one or two of those storms in this region could become severe, with damaging winds being the main threat.

If today's tricky to forecast, Monday is a nightmare. Yet another little disturbance will probably kick off a few more scattered showers and rumbles of thunder overnight across Vermont and surrounding areas.

We know Monday will be quite warm and humid. What we don't know is how many leftover clouds will tamp down on instability during the day. And nobody seems sure on the timing and locations of more fast-moving upper level weather disturbances coming through.

Forecasters seem pretty damn confident there will be showers and storms around Monday. In their forecast discussion, meteorologists at the NWS in South Burlington say they're struggling with a couple things, at least.

Some computer models forecast a relatively sharp disturbance coming toward the International border late in the day, which would favor scattered thunderstorms, some strong to severe and especially north.

Other computer models bring a somewhat broader disturbance through earlier in the day. That would tend to create showers and storms statewide, not just in the north, but lessen the chances that the storms  would be severe.

I'm sure meteorologists will keep looking at new data today and overnight and come up with a more specific forecast by early tomorrow morning.

At this point, Tuesday looks great: Very warm - in the 80s, with sunshine and relatively comfortable humidity.

Then it gets very tricky again for Wednesday, with the threat of storms.  We'll wait to discuss Wednesday because whatever forecasts are out there now for midweek will surely change.

Next Few Days Are Perfect If You Like Showers And Thunder

A thunderstorm over Lake Champlain on August 6. More showers and
storms are likely today, and they will be scattered around most days
between now and Thursday in Vermont and surrounding areas.

UPDATE 2:30 PM SATURDAY

Thunderstorms were firing up around the Northeast and some of them are proving to be nasty.

As of 2:30 p.m., nothing major had hit Vermont yet, but I'm still pretty confident there will be a few scattered severe storms.

Some areas outside of Vermont are getting nailed. There was a tornado warning east of Syracuse, NY as of 2:30 p.m.

Flash flood warnings popped up northeast of Albany, New York and in southeastern Connecticut due to torrential rains.

Most of northwestern New Hampshire is under a flash flood watch due to expected heavy rains this evening.

So yeah, most of us in Vermont won't have it too bad, but a few of us will likely get some damaging winds, dangerous lightning and perhaps a local flash flood. Heed warnings and keep an eye to the skies!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Since late Thursday night, occasional rounds of hit and miss thunderstorms have been roaming through Vermont and northern New York.

If you like this type of thing, you're in luck. This state of affairs looks to continue at least into Wednesday. 

There might be times during this period where some afternoon and evening storms in Vermont and the rest of the North Country could become strong to severe, but it's hard to pinpoint if or exactly when and where that would happen much in advance.

The closer you are to the event, the better handle you have on things. So the forecast for today can be spelled out pretty well. We have to hope that everybody gets some good rains eventually out of this. Some parts of Vermont are wet enough, but others could stand some decent downpours.

The showers and storms have been caused by a series of disturbances zipping along in a general west to east flow over us. The last disturbance was heading out of eastern Vermont early this morning after scattering a few showers and storms here and there overnight

The next disturbance, riding hard on the heels of the first one, should get here this afternoon and evening. The area of rain and showers with this disturbance was getting into western New York as of 9 a.m. and heading steadily east. It looks as if the showers and storms will be pretty numerous between, say 1 and 8 p.m., but as always in this type of situation, not everybody is going to get it.

There's a lot of clouds left over this morning from last night's activity. If the skies clear decently, that will help the sun heat things up and increase the instability. This, in turn could lead to some storms turning strong, even maybe severe in one or two spots.

Most of us won't get a severe storm, but a couple towns might. So you'll want to be in a spot today where you can quickly get to a good shelter if you see a storm coming, or hear a severe thunderstorm warning or special weather statement.

If we get very little sun, there will be a lesser chance of strong storms but still a risk of heavy downpours, lightning, that sort of thing.

As an aside, my friends and relatives over in South Dakota really ought to watch the skies today and tonight. Out there, a greater chance of big time Plains storms exists. The biggest threats out there are very damaging winds and huge hailstones. A couple tornadoes will probably also touch down.

Back here in Vermont, Sunday, at least the way it looks now, is shaping up to be the better of the two weekend days. We'll be between weather disturbances, so there won't be much of a trigger for any additional rounds of showers and storms.

However, I'm sure by now you've noticed the humidity creeping up. That trend will continue through tomorrow and on into the beginning of the work week. With the humidity around along with subtle ripples in the atmosphere and updrafts near mountains, there will probably be a few widely scattered showers and storms Sunday afternoon, but most of us won't get anything.

It'll stay generally very warm and humid until at least Wednesday, with daily chances of more storms. As I said before, it's too soon to say whether any of them will be strong or severe. There's hope that a cold front will come through later Wednesday or Thursday to drop both the temperature and the humidity.

It's getting toward the end of summer, so we will only have a few more of these humid spells before autumn arrives.

July Was World's Hottest Month On Record, NOAA Says. Others Say It Was Close

Seeing red again. Most of the world was warmer than normal
in July, 2019, says NOAA. The agency says the
month was the world's hottest on record.

Much of the world endured some pretty big heat waves during July and now the official word is in from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information: July was the world's hottest month on record.

In keeping with climate change, this is part of a trend. All of the hottest Julys on record happened in the past five years, and nine out of the 10 hottest happened since 2005, says NOAA. This July was 1.71 degrees warmer than the 20th century average.

July is normally the warmest month of the year for Earth, despite it being winter in the Southern Hemisphere. Given that this July was so warm globally, that made the seventh month of 2019 the hottest.

The places that seemed to be the hottest this July were Alaska, central Europe, sections of southern Asia and southern Africa and parts of eastern North America. (Here in Vermont, in eastern North America, Burlington had its third hottest July on record. A couple New England cities had their hottest July.)

The only cool spots, at least relative to average were in parts of northeastern Europe, a bit of northeastern Siberia and central Canada.

NOAA says so far in 2019, we're tied with 2017 as the second hottest year on record out of the past 140.

Global July temperatures since around 1880. Notice a trend?

Oh, and by the way, sea ice extent in the Arctic was at a record low level in July, 2019, as NOAA continued to share this bad climate news.

Different climatalogical and meteorological organizations measure global temperatures slightly differently.

The Category 6 blog notes:

"The Japan Meteorological Agency rated July 2019 in a tie with July, 2016 for warmest month on record and NASA found that July 2019 was in a virtual tie with August, 2016.

"Minor differences in rankings between NASA, NOAA and JMA can arise because of how they handle data-sparse regions such as the Arctic, where few surface weather stations exist."

El Nino patterns tend to make the world a bit warmer, on top of the underlying global warming. In July a weak El Nino was fading into oblivion. I'm not sure if the dead/dying El Nino will have a noticeable effect on global temperatures for the remainder of the year.

Rare Tornado In Northeast Maine On Monday

A confirmed tornado in a remote part of Washington County, in
northeastern Maine on Monday. Photo by David Cofin.

Here in Vermont this past Monday, it was a gorgeous day, aside from some mild evening showers and thundershowers over far northern areas.

You didn't have to go to far to the northeast to get into some wild weather, though. A cold front was drifting down into northern New England from Quebec Monday afternoon and evening. Near Vermont, the dynamics weren't there to create anything in the way of strong storms.

But up in Maine, the cold front had some power to it.  Strong to severe thunderstorms swept across northern Maine, culminating in a tornado touchdown in remote Kossuth Township in the northeastern part of the state.

The EF-1 tornado was in an area not far from the New Brunswick border and southeast of Millinocket.  It was a small tornado, only 200 yards wide with a path length of a quarter mile. Estimated winds were 90 mph and about 120 softwood trees were snapped or uprooted.  Nobody was injured and no homes were damaged.

As you can see in the photo, a passerby named David Coffin got a great photo of the tornado.

Tornadoes do happen from time to time in Maine, as they do pretty much everywhere in the nation. This was the first confirmed tornado in Maine this year, the National Weather Service in Caribou says.

Maine averages two tornadoes per year.  Here in Vermont, we average one per year.  Maybe I'm jinxing things, but I'm not aware of any twisters in the Green Mountain State since at least 2014.

Loving This Video Of Kangaroos In The Snow

Australian kangaroos bounce around in a snowstorm this week
in Australia. 

A viral video making the rounds, which you can see at the bottom of this post, has me smiling.

It's winter in Australia and southern parts of the nation closest to Antarctica had a pretty substantial blast of cold and snow in the past few days. This left kangaroos bouncing around in the snow, which is pretty fun to watch.

This winter blast was fairly substantial by Australian standards, but this does happen from time to time in parts of Victoria and New South Wales. After all, there are ski resorts in Australia.  This cold snap was slightly unusual because it lasted several days.

According to The Conversation, Australia has seen much bigger winter storms than this in the past. In fact, the frequency of snowfalls has generally been declining. The Conversation says an analysis of Australian ski resorts shows that the number of days that it snows has fallen, though the number of large snow events is pretty much unchanged.

That kind of echoes the way things are going in the Northeastern U.S. during our winters.

In any event, here's our snowy kangaroos. Video credit goes to Stephen Grenfell:

Arctic Summer Has Been Too Much Like What We Normally Get

X marks the spot where the North Pole is on this map. Red box
points to where there was lightning recently. 

Time to check in once again to the not-so-Great White North, meaning the Arctic, which continues to have an extraordinarily hot summer.

You've seen some posts this summer noting how hot it is up there, but the news keeps coming. Alaska beach weather. Arctic wildfires. Summer thunderstorms rattling around the North Pole.

This in an area that is normally bleak and chilly despite the usual 24-hour a day sun in the first half of summer.

LIGHTNING NEAR NORTH POLE

Here in Vermont, we endured lightning strikes every summer.  That's just normal this time of year around here. But recently. lightning was also striking within 300 miles of the North Pole, which is really something.

In general, if you want a thunderstorm, it's fine to have cold, dry air aloft, but you need relatively warm, humid air near the surface.  We get that here in Vermont in the summer, so we have thunderstorms. As does pretty much everybody else in the mid-latitudes.

The Arctic has always had plenty of cold, dry air around. But warmth and humidity, at least compared to what it normally is up there, is usually scarce. Which means so are thunderstorms.

It's possible there has been lightning that far north before, but nobody that I've found knows of it. And one thunderstorm doesn't prove climate change. But this is odd. And warm.

It does make sense that lightning could become more common in the Arctic. There are signs it already is getting more frequent.  When the Arctic ocean is more ice covered, that stabilizes and chills the air, squelching any attempts at the billowing clouds that can produce lightning.

When there's open water, it can collect more heat, creating rising air currents and produce thunderstorms under the right conditions. Arctic sea ice is at its lowest level on record for this time of year, so it's kinda not surprising they had a weird thunderstorm up there.

The thunderstorms occurred in an area that was frozen over. But open water was just 150 miles away. The storms apparently got going there, over the open water, then moved north. 

ALASKA HEAT UPDATE

The ever helpful Category 6 weather and climate blog has given us a nice update on this summer in Alaska, which statewide, was the hottest on record.

The records are incredible, but the town that takes the cake in my opinion is Kotzebue, along the coast in northwestern Alaska. May, June and July there were the hottest on record. They have not had a single cooler than normal day since February 14! The last time Kotzebue had a cooler than normal month was two years ago.

That pretty much the entire state of Alaska was record warm in July is particularly incredible considering how vast it is. Superimpose Alaska on the Lower 48 and it covers the entire middle of the nation.

So far, the warm Alaska summer has extended through the first half of August.  Another heat ridge might build up there over the coming week or two, which would prolong the odd hot summer in Alaska.

SEA ICE AND OUR WINTERS

At least one new study suggests that melting sea ice is NOT
making our winter in Vermont more harsh. The debate continues....

As I've mentioned in previous blog posts here, some climate scientists have been wondering if the loss of Arctic sea ice have been making winters here in Vermont, elsewhere in the United States and in Europe harsher.

The theory is that the loss of sea ice makes the jet stream wavier and helps get it stuck,  causing cold air to plunge down on us from the north.

A new study questions this theory.  As ScienceDaily points out, the study says that although low winter Arctic ice levels and tough winters here often coincide, the low sea ice isn't having a big influence on these winters.

With or without climate change, Arctic sea ice levels fluctuate year to year. Sometimes there's not much ice, other times there's quite a bit. The overall trend is down for the ice, but it's not a steady drop over years and decades.

Atmospheric weather patterns tend to promote particularly relatively small amounts of sea ice in the Arctic during some winters. Those same weather patterns cause cold snowy winters in eastern North America and western Europe.

This won't be the final word on this issue. I'm sure the scientists will continue studying and debating this one.

Bigger Than Usual Severe Weather Outbreak Colorado To Mid-Atlantic In The Works

The National Weather Service in Cheyenne, Wyoming shared on Twitter
this photo by Cody Calhoun of a tornado and lightning strike
near Burns, Wyoming on Sunday. Severe weather will
head east through the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states
through Tuesday. 

We here in Vermont had a gorgeous day Sunday, with temperatures in the 70s to low 80s, plenty of sunshine and low humidity.

Let's just say the weather in Vermont was a bit better than in, say, Otis, Colorado, which had at least one tornado and hail the size of grapefruit. Yikes! There were at least 10 reports of tornadoes Sunday, mostly in Colorado.

The severe weather in Colorado, Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas Sunday was the beginnings of a larger than usual severe weather and tornado outbreak that will eventually extend eastward through the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states through Tuesday.

You can pretty much always find areas of strong and severe thunderstorms in the summer, but it's usually not as widespread as those spring outbreaks. But this one will pack a big punch, at least by August standards.

There's a strong heat wave going on now in the Gulf States and mid-Mississippi Valley. A weak storm, though one that's stronger than usual for the dog days of August is on the northern edge of this hot spell. The system is heading east from Iowa, and will go through Illinois and Ohio before ending up somewhere around Pennslyvania or Maryland by Tuesday.

This combination, which includes winds changing speed and direction with height, great instability and such will keep the severe weather going along and to the south of this storm's path. Today, the focus for severe weather will center on Iowa, Illinois and Indiana.

If anything, Tuesday looks more interesting as ingredients might be coming together for a bigger outbreak of bad weather, focusing on New Jersey, southeastern Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia.

For the second year in a row, this area has already been battered by an unusual number of severe storms and tornadoes. For instance, New Jersey has had eight tornadoes so far this year. They normally average two per year.

This upcoming storm will certainly continue the Mid-Atlantic severe weather trend. I'm pretty sure we'll get at least a couple reports of tornadoes out of the Mid-Atlantic states Tuesday, along with wind damage, hail and flash flooding.

This dangerous weather outbreak will miss us here in Vermont, so be glad for that. A weak cold front, one ingredient that will contribute to the severe weather well south of us, will come through here today and tonight.

While the cold front is passing through Vermont, it won't have much oomph. There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of and with this thing this afternoon and evening. One or two storms might be briefly, locally strong, but don't count on much in the way of fireworks.

The storm causing the havoc in the Mid-Atlantic will throw some rain through the southern half of Vermont Tuesday, but again, nothing dramatic.

"Chilly" Weather Thunderstorms Continue To Hit

As showers and some strong thunderstorms eased over Vermont
Saturday evening, this cloud gave one last attempt at
a good shower. It was over southern Quebec, as seen
from Franklin Counth, Vermont. I call this an incompetent
cloud, bcause it looked confused and not quite sure
what to do. 

Before we launch into today's stormy post, I  have to reassure you that despite the headline above, the rest of today, Sunday, is shaping up to be a beauty.

The sky is blue, the humidity is low, and there's a nice breeze. That state of affairs will continue for the rest of the day.

The brighter sunshine will warm temperatures up well into the 70s. If you have anything to do outside today - hike, swim, picnic, barbeque, pick blueberries, garden, whatever, get right out there and do it!

There probably will be a few pretty puffy clouds around, a lingering legacy of some cold air aloft that produced some surprisingly vigorous showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

We usually associate strong thunderstorms with humid, hot weather. That is indeed usually the case. However, in the summer, if there's an unusually intense pool of cold air aloft and high level winds are stronger than usual, you can get some good storms.

The sun is still quite strong in August so the ground heats up fast. This creates updrafts. These updrafts encounter the colder air aloft, which encourages further updrafts. Soon enough, these grow into showers and thunderstorms.  These storms can "grab" some higher winds aloft and bring them to the surface.

These "chilly weather storms" are less widespread and less intense than what we can get ahead of a cold front in steamy hot weather, but they can be pretty rambunctious.

Friday, winds gusted to 40 mph in many evening storms. A few storms Saturday probably could be classified as severe. At the Champlain Valley Fairgrounds in Essex Junction, Vermont, a tree was snapped and exhibition stands were lifted and moved by strong thunderstorm winds.

Severe thunderstorm warnings went up in central Vermont and around Addison County as these storms moved through.

These cooler thunderstorms have a greater risk of hail than other warmer storms. Dime-sized hail came down in Essex Junction, and there several other reports of pea-sized hail in Vermont. In Maine Saturday, hailstones became as big as ping pong balls, so that was something. Strong storms hit southern Quebec and New Brunswick, too.

The air aloft is now a bit warmer than yesterday, and a high pressure system is moving in, which encourages sinking air. Sinking air encourages sunshine. Still, with some lingering chill aloft, some updrafts will get around the sinking air, which explains why we'll get a few of those puffy clouds this afternoon. Those clouds will add to the beauty of the photos you might take today.

On Monday, a weak cold front will approach us from Canada. The air ahead of this cold front will be a little warmer, but still not particularly warm and certainly not humid for this time of year.

The front will add some lift to the air, so despite the lack of heat and humidity, one or two storms could become strong again in the afternoon, especially in northern Vermont.

Video: This person in New Brunswick, Canada, made the best of a hail storm Saturday. The stones even served as a chilly snack:

This 'N That And Storm Videos Too

After a nice day, storm clouds gather late in the afternoon Friday
over Georgia, Vermont. They produced wind gusts to about'
 40 mph and brief downpours. 

Last evening in Vermont proved that even once you get rid of the humidity, storminess can still reign.

It was certainly gorgeous in the Green Mountain State Friday, with that lower humidity and sunshine. But, a serious of little cold fronts continued to slide through, and one was timed perfectly in the late afternoon and early evening to produce some gusty showers and thunderstorms.

Winds aloft were pretty strong for this time of year, so the storms were able to pull some of that wind to the surface. There was nothing severe, but gusts of 40 mph and brief heavy downpours, like what I saw in Georgia and other Vermonters saw, are nothing to sneeze at.

Today will be showery, too, even with the sun mixing in. In the mid and upper atmosphere, some of the coldest air in North America is over or near us. With the air temperature rapidly dropping with height, updrafts are easy to create. These form billowing clouds and showers. There won't be anything extreme. And Sunday is looking nice: Sunny and warmish (70s) with low humidity.

Elsewhere, obviously, the weather is worse.

In places like Washington State and parts of the northern Rockies, they are simultaneously under wildfire alerts and flash flood watches. That sounds a little strange but can happen from time to time.

Thunderstorms are expected to move through that area later today and tonight, and some of them will be strong. Like most outbreaks of thunderstorms, this one will be rather hit and miss. Near the edges of the thunderstorms, lightning will hit dry vegetation and set fires, while erratic winds from the storms spread the blazes.

In the core of the thunderstorms, gushing downpours will develop, causing quickly rising water and debris flows, especially in areas denuded by previous forest fires. Today's not a great day to be hiking in the northern Rockies or Pacific Northwest, that's for sure!

In Europe, it's awfully stormy. The United Kingdom's Met Office is alerting people to the flash flooding and high winds expected today. Yesterday, a tornado him Amsterdam, the Netherlands and an even bigger twister hit Luxembourg, of all places. The Luxembourg tornado injured at least seven people and damaged at least 100 houses.

Here's a video, most of it in slo-mo, of the tornado in Luxembourg:



Meanwhile, near London, the Luton Airport, a smaller cousin to the more famous Heathrow, had its own trouble as torrential downpours broke through the roof. Watch:



In eastern China, a typhoon made landfall on Friday. In this Chinese government video, a landslide caused by the typhoon's heavy rains abruptly blocks an expressway tunnel:



Finally, a tornado/waterspout breezes through a waterfront area of Amsterdam the Netherlands: