"Backward" Weather Coming To Vermont/New England

A computer model map for Wednsday. Strong high pressure
over far northern Canada causing a strong east to west flow (the rather
tightly packed lines in Canada. A strong storm well off the coast
is contributing to the east to west flow. That green stripe
from New England into central Quebec is a band of
moisture, essentially a weather front, moving westward
from the Atlantic 

Almost all of time, our weather comes from a general west to east directions.  Cold fronts attack us New Englanders from the northwest, while surges of milder air come in from the southwest.

Or, little weather systems zip across overhead, racing due west to east. That's just the way it's done in the Northern Hemisphere.

Sometimes, especially in the spring, things get weird.  The weather starts coming from the east.  And when it does, more often than not we get a cooling trend, a reverse from the normal spring trend of gradual milder weather.

For both those reasons, we get into something called a backward spring.

We have an episode of that coming in the next few days. Fortunately, there are no worries about any extreme weather, which is also pretty common in backwards spring episodes.

In the early spring, weather systems often get blocked up in the North Atlantic. Things slow down or stall, or move in odd directions. In this case a strong high pressure system over far northern Canada and near Greenland s helping to gum up the works and get the air flow in southeastern Canada and the Northeast coming from the east, rather than the west.

Next, a storm is crossing the southeastern United States today, and will probably cause some strong thunderstorms and maybe a couple tornadoes down there. This storm will move off the Carolina coast and turn into essentially a huge nor'easter off the coast.

This big ocean storm won't come nearly close enough to cause any big weather in New England.  But it  will accentuate the odd east to west air flow over the Atlantic Ocean.  It means that what amounts to a cold front is moving from a position south of Greenland and move from coastal New England to New York Thursday.

This "front" for the lack of a better word, will be weakening as it crosses through.  It all means we're in for a spell of chilly light, but frequent rain showers, mixed with some snow. The snow would be especially prevalent at night and in the mountains, but it won't come down heavily.

We are in a cooling trend, too.  It'll only be in the 40s today despite sunshine, which is about average for this time of year. We'll only make it to the low 40s tomorrow, and some places won't get past 40 n Thursday.

That's not particularly cold for this time of year, but it is an interruption to our early spring.

That big ocean storm will begin to grudgingly move east or southeast at the end of the week, and the weather patterns will revert to its normal west to east flow. That will bring warmer temperatures ot us by the weekend. Forecasts calls for temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s during the weekend, which is a bit on the mild side for this time of year.

Nice Early Spring Thundery Light Show In New England Last Night

Those of you New Englanders who like warm season thunderstorms got a treat last evening, even if it wasn't particularly warm.

As I'm sure many of you saw and heard, a number of thunderstorms rolled through New York and New England on Sunday, thanks to a strong storm system.

It's the same system that brought tornadoes to the Midwest on Saturday. Luckily for us, no tornadoes.  

There were actually severe thunderstorm warnings in parts of southern New England and northwestern New York during this episode.

A few of those warnings verified in terms of hail size.  Golf ball sized hail came down in Worcester, Massachusetts and there were several reports of quarter sized hail in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Here in Vermont, several areas reported smaller hail in the storms, mostly pea sized or just marginally bigger. But still, that's impressive for a March thunderstorm.

True to form for New England, not every part of the region had thunderstorms.  Western and northern Maine was enduring a winter storm of wet snow and sleet.

Screen grab of lots of lightning activity in
New England Sunday evening. Image from
lightningmaps.org

The thunderstorms erupted because the strong storm system that was over the Great Lakes Sunday  created strong instability.  That means temperatures dropped quickly as you went up in elevation, so that allowed air currents to rise into towering clouds that produced thunderstorms.

Additionally, the storm was causing a general lift in the atmosphere anyway, so with all that upward motion in the air, thunderstorms were able to blossom.  One key ingredient for thunderstorms is strongly rising air, so there you go.

These were known as elevated storms. There was a thin layer of cool air near the Earth's surface. That's why it was only in the 30s and 40s when the storm rolled through.

But there was a warmer layer above. That warm layer was essentially the base of the storms. Then the air cooled dramatically from that warm layer on upward.  That was the instability that helped trigger the thunderstorms.

These storms contrasted with the kinds of thunderstorms we usually get in the summertime, which are commony surface-based, not elevated. Surface based means that the sun has warmed the lowest levels of the atmosphere, where we live. From there rising air currents create thunderstorms without any low level layer of chillier air.

That parent storm system that caused the thunderstorms is still pestering New England today. Here in Vermont, I doubt there will be any thunderstorms, but it will be showery and cool, although this morning will be on the dry side.  There migtht be some snow or mixed precipitation way up in the mountains.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has southern New England in a marginal risk zone for severe storms, though. The threat would be isolated reports of large hail again.

It's been an interesting winter and early spring for New England and New York thunderstorms. Just before New Year, there was a bizarre storm that created both freezing rain and thunderstorms with large hail in central and southern New England, as far north as southern Vermont.

On March 20, strong storms caused straight line wind damage in northern New York and far northwestern Vermont, which is awfully early in the season for that to be happening.

Tornadoes Sweep Parts Of Midwest As Expected, Illinois Not As Hard Hit

Massive tornado yesterday in Jonesboro, Arkansas

As expected, tornadoes swept through parts of the Midwest Saturday, but luckily there have no reports of deaths so far, and only relatively minor injuries. There is a lot of damage, though.

Illinois had been expected to be the epicenter of the tornado outbreak and they did have tornadoes in that state.

But tornadoes were more heavily concentrated to the west in Iowa, and the most destructive of the tornadoes hit to the south, in Jonesboro, Arkansas and the neighboring town of Brookland.  

Dramatic videos of the tornado is at the bottom of this post.

In Jonesboro, a rapidly developing tornado quickly became strong and destroyed a shopping center and numerous homes, Local television station KAIT in Jonesboro reported only six injuries from the twister, which is amazing considering the destruction it caused.

The mayor of Jonesboro put everybody in town under curfew last night, ordering them to stay in their homes so that emergency workers could look for more people that needed help.  They also needed to clear streets of a huge amount of debris and fallen power lines.

Lots of people have seen this photo of a Jonesboro doctor behind
glass so he can protect his one year old from coronavirus. On
Saturday, the family's home was destroyed by a tornado.

Maybe the saddest result of the tornado involves a Dr. Jared Burks and his family. He's been on the front lines of the coronavirus outbreak.

A photo taken by his wife Alyssa went viral recently. It showed the doctor watching, behind glass,  his one-year old son.  They must stay separate in case the doctor contracts the virus.  

The Jonesboro tornado destroyed the Burks family home Saturday while the doctor was in it. He wasn't hurt and his family was elsewhere, but the whole thing is just too cruel.  A GoFundMe page is set up for the Burks family. As of early this morning, people donated more than $25,000 to the family.

A total of at least 17 tornadoes have been so far confirmed across the Midwest Saturday.  Several homes and other buildings suffered extensive damage in Iowa and western Illinois.

Today, some severe thunderstorms are possible today in western New York and Pennsylvania, and in the Southeast Monday and Tuesday.

Up here in Vermont, we'll just get a couple rainy days today and Monday.  If any flooding occurs here, it will be very spotty and minor.

Some videos:

Videographer Mike Lane took this dramatic video of the tornado.

 

Zachary Hall too this video of the tornado destroying the Mall at Turtle Creek in Jonesboro:



Here's what scary live coverage of the tornado looked like on KAIT-TV in Jonesboro. The amount of debris in the air at 1:40 to 1:50 into the video is incredible:

 

Weather Disasters And Coronavirus: It's Complicated, For Sure

Hundreds of houses destroyed by an Oklahoma tornado in 2013. How
would you shelter all those people during and after a similar tornado
during the coronavirus pandemic? Emergency officials in much
of the nation are mulling that questio. 

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are still a good bet later today in and around Illinois, which means people will have to take shelter.

But where?  The coronavirus has us hunkered down in our houses already.

Of course, houses with basements are fine. You get a tornado warning and head for the basement. But lots of homes and entire neighborhoods rely on community storm shelters when tornadoes threaten.

The risk, aside from the actual tornadoes, is that some people who think there are available storm shelters for them when there might not be.

Some community storm shelters might be shuttered because of the coronavirus threat.  The pandemic has altered the entire world, so all the familiar rules are gone. It's up to local officials to decide which shelter is open and which is closed, so everybody will need to check.

The situation in Illinois is particularly dangerous today.  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is considering whether to upgrade the risk to its highest level because of the possibility of very strong, long lasting tornadoes in Illinois later today.

People have been advised to figure out by this morning where to take shelter before by this morning to know where to go when the severe weather starts. By the time tornadoes form and warnings are issued, it's too late to begin considering where to take shelter.

This is especially true with this potential Illinois outbreak: Any tornadoes that form are expected to have a forward speed of 60 mph. That's awfully fast. Warnings won't be issued much in advance of the tornadoes hitting, and you won't be able to outrun them in a car.

Assuming community shelters are open, people might be hesitant to crowd into these places with lots of other people. After all, the experts unanimously tell us to stay home, and if we must go out, remain at least six feet away from other people if at all possible.

That's impossible in storm shelters. It's not a great choice, but the bigger danger is the tornado. The National Weather Service advises people to take the shelter from the tornado, and then worry about coronavirus after the storm.  The tornado, when it's happening, is the more dire of the two events.

It's only late March, so the tornado season is just beginning in earnest. It peaks from April to early June. Today's situation in Illinois will almost certainly repeat itself pretty frequently in one fashion or the other over the coming weeks.

Lots of places are already thinking about this, which is good. For instance, officials around Kansas City, which is definitely a tornado-prone area of the nation, said they have contingency plans for a weather disaster atop of the coronavirus outbreak, according to local news station FOX4

The pandemic makes things much more complicated, though.  How do you treat people injured in storms while avoiding Covid-19?  What about people whose homes have been destroyed by a tornado? Where do you put them and keep them safe?  What about cleanup and recovery? Rebuilding? Insurance and government permits for that rebuilding?

According to FOX4 in Kansas City, the planning continues.

"'Unfortunately, Mother Nature doesn't slow down because of Covid-19,' Matt May, the emergency management director of Wyandotte County, told FOX4. 'People are having those conversatios about what we woul do if we had a tornado now.'"

An even bigger problem could unfold in the late summer and autumn if the coronavirus pandemic in the United States remains uncontrolled. By then, it will be hurricane season.  Landfalling hurricanes in the U.S. and elsewhere require mass evacuations often involving tens or even hundreds of thousands of people. You end up with thousands of people packed cheek to jowl in emergency shelters.

People can only hope that the coronavirus pandemic fades out by August, when hurricanes really begin to crank.  Otherwise, that'll be yet another reason why we're really screwed.

Meanwhile the severe weather this weekend in the Midwest is just beginning to crank up, and will only get worst later today Some video:

Here's some hail damaging cars in Jefferson City, Missouri last night, as viewed by someone on their apartment balcony.  Some understandable NSFW language in here.

Strong Storm Threatens Midwest Tornadoes, Other Troubles

Areas shaded in orange and red have the greatest risk of
tornadoes Saturday. A couple tornadoes could be long-lasting
and strong.  Areas in yellow have a somewhat lesser but
still real chance of severe storms Saturday. 

As if people don't already have enough to worry about, a strong storm could unleash some tornadoes, possibly strong ones, and other dangerous hazards in the middle of the nation this weekend.

It's a classic spring storm setup. The disturbance is now getting going in Colorado and will move across Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin and into the Great Lakes by Sunday.

This storm will affect us here in Vermont, but it won't be nearly as dangerous as in parts of the Midwest.

Forecasters are especially worried about an area centered on northern Illinois on Saturday.  That area will be just to the southeast of the storm center.

This position will guarantee winds changing direction with height, one ingredient you need for rotating supercell thunderstorms, which can produce tornadoes.

Add to that very humid air streaming into that area, a  batch of drier air coming in from the west, and instability caused by the sun's heating during the day and you definitely increase the risk.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a moderate risk for severe storms in northern Illinois Saturday, which is their second highest alert level.  It looks like supercell thunderstorms that are not connected to one another (they call them discrete supercells) will get going in that region Saturday afternoon.

When supercells are "discrete," they have a better chance of lasting a long time as they travel toward the east or northeast, and have a better chance of producing tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center says a couple tornadoes could be very strong and long-lasting.

This setup in Illinois reminds me a lot of a similar situation in April, 2015 that produced 11 northern Illinois tornadoes, including an EF-4 that killed two people and injured a couple dozen others in Rochelle and Fairdale, Illinois 

A lesser, but real chance of severe storms and tornadoes will exist as far east as Ohio and as far south as Mississippi on Saturday.

Predicting tornado outbreaks is a very tricky business.  If just one subtle ingredient is missing, then nothing super bad will happen. If one little meteorological ingredient is a bit more robust than expected, watch out.  The bottom line is nobody is very sure what will happen in northern Illinois Saturday, but it definitely bears watching.

Elsewhere, the storm could produce enough heavy rain in central Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota. The storm looks like it will produce several inches of wet, heavy snow in northeastern Minnesota, near Lake Superior.

By the way, ahead of the main show on Saturday, a few severe thunderstorms are possible in eastern Kansas and Missouri later today. The main threat is really big hail, but a tornado or two can't be ruled out.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Nothing super dangerous will come out of this storm for us in the Green Mountain State, but Sunday looks like it will be a raw, ugly day.

Saturday looks gorgeous out ahead of the storm with relatively warm temperatures near 50. Sunshine will start to fade behind thickening clouds in the afternoon - a harbinger of the storm.

Sunday will feature rain, gusty winds, and freezing rain in spots. Most if not all of the freezing rain will be along and east of the Green Mountains during the first half of Sunday.  Any  ice accumulation will be pretty light, and the roads generally won't be too bad, as road surface temperatures are likely to be a bit above freezing.

Besides, hardly anyone is driving around these days, right?

There might even be a rumble of thunder thrown in here and there Sunday afternoon, we'll see.

In the spring, storms tend to slow down their forward speed, especially when they reach our neck of the woods and that will be the case this time.  So showers will keep going through Monday night, though the precipitation will be mostly lighter by Sunday night and Monday.

They're predicting about an inch of rain with this system in Vermont, give or take.  Rivers will rise, but this doesn't look quite big enough at this point to have us worry about any real flooding.

Here's a famous video taken by a person watching the 2015 Fairdale, Illinois tornado from his house. He thought it would miss, but it veered toward him, destroying his house, injuring him and killing his wife. It's a lesson: Tornadoes can change directions.  Even if you think you're safe, take cover just in case. Here's the video It's scary!

Spring Sunshine Really Nails Vermont Snow Cover

7:47 a.m. Tuesday: A winter wonderland in St. Albans, Vermont

In scenes surely being replayed through Vermont over the past couple of days, the snow from Monday night's storm is disappearing super quickly in the face of the strong spring sun. .

There's still snow on the ground in places where the storm was bigger. Places that had 10, 11 inches of snow will go at least a couple more days before the white ground turns brown again.

Here in St. Albans, we only got 3.5 inches of snow Monday night, so the process of melting went faster, as you can see by the series of photos in this post.

4:53 p.m. Tuesday: The melt is definitly underway. 

Tellingly, there is still an inch of snow on the ground in protected areas that got zero sunshine.  The rest is gone.

Temperatures since the storm have been mild, but not wildly warm. High temperatures Tuesday were only within a couple degrees of 40, and Wednesday got into the mid-40s after an overnight freeze.

Had this storm hit in December with its low sun angle, we'd still probably have most of the snow cover left.

But the sun is high now, so those who were disheartened by the snow get a break.  It melted. Relatively unfrozen ground also helped with this melt.

3:42 p.m. Wednesday. Almost gone! 

Of course, there's a declining but still real risk of big snowstorms right through mid-April at least, though there are none currently in the forecast.

The next real storm, expected Sunday, is likely to be mostly rain, with perhaps a little snow in the mountains and Northeast.

If we do end up getting a new snowstorm in the coming few weeks, take heart. It will melt very quickly.

The landscape emerging from the snow is pretty brown, as you'd expect during mud season in March.

6:36 p.m. Wednesday. The snow is gone! 

However, it's been a relatively warm month. I've got daffodil shoots coming up everywhere on my property. Other plants are showing signs of life, too.

The initial, tentative green shoots are about as far along as they were around April 10 last year, so we're doing pretty well.

I could hear all the spring birds chirping happily outside as I write this morning.

Given the awfulness of what's going on out in the world right now, we all need this springtime hope.

In this time of anxiety and fear, it's great to latch onto something that gives us peace and something to look forward to.

Spring weather in Vermont is imperfect and sometimes frustrating. But the greening up will come. If you can and are able to maintain your social distancing, go out and enjoy the season.  Trust me. It will help.

How Cononavirus Might Affect Pollution And Climate Change

Map depicts NO2 pollution in China. Map on the left, with the
oranges and reds, shows plenty of NO2.  During the
coronavirus lockdown in China, that pollution
largely disappeared. 

Large swaths of the world, including much of the United States, are in lockdown or near lockdown because of the coronavirus.

That means emissions from businesses, cars, planes and such are also way down.

This, I suppose, is the tiniest of silver linings from this mess is that there is less air pollution out there.

Before I go on, I want to make something crystal clear. Given a choice between a bit of air pollution and no cornonavirus, I would very obviously go with no coronavirus. I, like everybody else on the planet, wish we weren't dealing with this deadly disease.

We wish life had just gone on as normal, even with some air pollution to breath. We all would rather breathe some vagely smoggy air than air that could have that virus floating in it.

But here we are, hunkered down, trying to avoid Covid-19.

Pollution has dropped noticeably in hard hit places.  The most obvious change has been declining concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), first in China, then in Italy, and now in the United States and elsewhere.

NO2 comes from tailpipe emissions, factories, and all kinds of other sources like that. In high enough concentrations, it can cause breathing problems, including in people with asthma.  The reductions of NO2, though, won't help anyone who contracts Covid-19.  The illness is just too overwhelming.

Still, the reductions in nitrogen pollution are striking. The area around hard-hit Milan, Italy saw a 40 percent drop in NO2 compared to last March. Similar declines were seen in China.

More recently, NO2 concentrations are falling fast in cities like London and New York.

NO2 is not a greenhouse gas that causes climate change.  However, carbon dioxide, which comes from the exact same sources as NO2, does cause climate change.   So will the coronavirus blunt the effects of global warming, at least briefly and marginally?

Again, first of all, we don't want coronavirus to be a "cure" for climate change.  Everybody knows it's not worth the price, at all.

Early indications are, this won't have a huge effect on climate change.  True, the amount of carbon dioxide going up into the air will be reduced.  Coal consumption, probably the worst source of climate change pollution, declined by 36 percent in China due to the virus, for instance.

Still, the overall amount of climate changing gases like CO2 won't decline enough to slow or stop climate change.  As Bob Henson writes in the Category 6 blog, we will still be increasing the amount of carbon dioxide in the air, just at a slower rate.

Plus, there's already more than enough carbon dioxide floating in the atmosphere to keep climate change going.

There have been economic events - not as big as this one - that caused declines in fossil fuel emissions. But those emissions came roaring back once the global economy recovered.

Here's one more factor Henson brings up:  The lockdowns have also caused a sharp decrease in aerosols going up into the air.  Aerosols are tiny, tiny particles emitted from such things as power plants, vehicles and such.

Aerosols block the sun a bit, which can interfere a little bit with the effects of climate change. Less sun getting through the atmosphere because of aerosols, the less heat gets in.

With less aerosols in the air, the coronavirus could briefly make the world hotter than it otherwise would be in the coming months.

The world's climate generally was getting warmer in the first half of the 20th century until the 1940s, when it leveled off.  Some scientists thing aerosols slowed down or temporarily stopped the heating.  Pollution control legislation in the 1970s reduced atmospheric aerosols, so the temperature could resume rising.  And it did.

We don't yet know what societal changes coronavirus will bring.  Perhaps telecommunting will become a more permanent fixture in the workplace environment, which of course would help bring down fossil fuel emissions.   Perhaps more people will grow a little more food on their own properties, which would also help.

I'm not being Pollyanna here. I need to emphasize again I don't see a bright side to the coronavirus. But this crisis will change the world permanently. Whether it will ultimately be for the better or worse is up to us.

BIG Thump Of Snow Surprises Every Vermonter, Including Meteorologists

Winter wonderland in my St. Albans, Vermont yard this morning.

Yesterday and last night's big dumping of snow on Vermont, which surprised everybody, is proof that even with all the fancy-dancy computer models and super smart meterologists out there, the weather can still sneak up on everybody.

As we now know, what had been widely expected to be a decent snowstorm in southern Vermont and no big deal central and north turned out to be anything but.

A band of very heavy snow crept from south to north over all but far northwestern Vermont Monday afternoon and evening.  Snowfall rates in that band were up to three inches per hour, which is pretty much the heaviest snowfall rate possible.

Burlington, for instance, got 2.9 inches of snow in one hour for a storm total of 5.5 inches. The forecast Monday morning called for a storm total of about an inch, so Burlington got roughly three times the predicted snow in just one hour.

Not all Vermont storm snow totals were in yet as of early this morning, but the numbers we do have are impressive, to say the least.

The Northeast Kingdom and parts of central Vermont, especially in Rutland and Windsor counties were close. Quechee reported 11 inches, the most I've seen so far from this storm.  Mount Holly, Worcester, Winhall, Kirby, Calais and Walden all got 10 inches. Around 9 inches fell in St. Johnsbury, Middlebury and Benson.

The 10 or so inches in the Northeast Kingdom were especially impressive since only two or three inches of snow had been predicted there.

Only the far northwest corner of Vermont sort of escaped, but still got more than we bargained for.  Here at my St. Albans property, I collected 3.5 inches of snow.

WHY THE BOTCHED FORECAST

Winter returned overnight for a brief stay in St. Albans, Vermont 

So: Why was the forecast so wrong?  Very frequently in snowstorms, a heavy band of precipitation sets up on the north or northwest side of a storm. That was actually expected to happen with this storm.

Also, as expected, this band of heavy precipitation set itself up Monday across central New England, where winter storm warnings were put up well in advance of this expectation.

The problem was this band of heavy snow, against every expectations lifted northward all the way to the Canadian border in Vermont and New Hampshire. (Another band of heavy precipitation took shape in central New England and pretty much stayed there for a little while, as forecast).

That band of heavy snow lifting northward was not caught in advance by any of the computer models that meteorologist at least partly rely upon.  Sometimes, despite all the advances in technology, the models are not yet always sophisticated enough to catch relatively small scale features like that unpredicted snow band.  

The computer models got the path of the storm correct, they were right about its central strength and forward speed, but were wrong about what happened with the storm here in Vermont.  This time, when the forecasts ended up being wrong, we all surely noticed.

This is not to say we should just give up on weather forecasts. Meteorologists are smart scientists, and the computer models have gotten a lot better with their data over the years.  Which means most of the time, the forecast is correct. Generally speaking, at least 80 percent of weather forecasts for the next day or two turn out to be completely accurate.

But occasionally, we do have to deal with a big surprise, like we did last night.

WHAT'S NEXT

The storm is over, and the cleanup begins. It was a fairly warm storm. You'll notice that the snow is wet and heavy. If you must go out and travel, the main roads were pretty much OK by 7 a.m. - just wet. Secondary roads will have some iffy conditions for awhile, but they'll melt out.

Speaking of melting, if you don't like all this new snow, it will melt pretty fast. True, the unexpectedly deep snow will reflect the sun's heat back into space a bit, so it'll be a little cooler today than originally forecast as a result.

Still, most valley locations will get into the 40s today. Skies will partly clear, and even where it stays relatively cloudy, some of the sun's heat will get through. The sun angle is high now, so that will aid in melting the snow.  The ground is not really frozen, so that will help, too.

We're actually set up for a couple days of great sugaring weather. The snow cover will encourage chillier temperatures for the next couple of nights with lows well down into the 20s. Daytime highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 40s. That is perfect for maple sugaring.

A few days ago, it looked like another storm would take a path similar to yesterday's which risked bringing us more snow tomorrow.  But that system will be weaker and further south than the one we just had, so it won't give us any trouble. We're in the clear.

Some rain showers will probably creep in Thursday. A larger storm seems likely this weekend, but the details on that one are still very sketchy. Early indications are the weekend storm will be mostly, but not exclusively rain.  We'll have to wait and see.

Monday Evening Storm Update. Vermont Dump Of Snow Already Bigger Than Forecast

The worst of the snow has been missing far northwestern Vermont,
with only an inch so far in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. The storm
has been overperforming in much of the Green Mountain State,
with reports of near seven inches already in parts of central Vermont. 

Snow was coming down hard in Vermont early this evening. This storm is definitely overperforming in the Green Mountain State.

For instance, my sister in West Rutland, Vermont reported five inches of new snow as of 6 p.m., which is near the top of the forecasted amount. And it was still snowing hard. From time to time, places as far north as Middlebury and Montpeier have been reporting heavy snow.

Moderate snow was falling in Burlington as of 6 p.m. The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont has extended the winter weather advisory northward to encompass all of Vermont except for Franklin, Grand Isle and western Chittenden counties.

A band of heavy snow unexpectedly set up and has been pivoting northward, dumping a total of six inches of snow already in some towns.  Orwell has already reported 6.8 inches of snow. Bridport has 6.5 inches.

This band of heavier snow will keep going north, but maybe not reach far northwestern sections.

This heavier snow is also wet so there is the danger of some tree and power line damage with this. A few people might see their electricity click off tonight.

The heavier snow should taper off between 8 p.m. and midnight across most if not all of the area. But the damage will have been done. This is definitely more than expected.

While this heavy snow band goes through, expect some treacherous driving. Wet snow is more slick than the dry, powdery snow of midwinter, so keep that under consideration tonight i you must drive.

We Always Seem To Get At Least One Winter Storm In The Spring. Update Here

The latest, dreaded National Weather Service snow prediction map
for this storm.  Southern areas look to be under the gun but
northern areas will just get a glancing blow Click on the map
to make it bigger and easier to see. 

We're a few days into spring now, but par for the course, a good chunk of New England is in for a winter storm later today and tonight.

How hard you're hit will depend on where you are.

This storm will focus most forcefully on New York's Catskill Mountains, far southern Vermont, southern and central New Hampshire, southwestern Maine and western and central Massachusetts.  All these places are under winter storm warnings for an expected five to 10 inches of heavy, wet snow.

South of those places and in lower elevations away from the Catskills, a lot of rain will mix in, so it won't be that big a deal. North of the winter storm warning areas, the snow won't be as heavy.

After the crystal clear skies we had on Sunday, it has already clouded up in Vermont and most of the rest of New England as of 7 a.m. this morning. Those clouds will yield snow starting this afternoon and continuing on into tonight. In some of the warm valleys, including the Champlain Valley, precipitation might start as rain, but will quickly change to snow.

I know a lot of you are working from home, but those who aren't can expect some iffy road conditions at best this evening. That'll be especially true in southern Vermont and other areas that are under the winter storm warning.

Overnight, the areas under the warning could receive enough heavy, wet snow to break branches an power lines, so keep that in mind. (Spring snowstorms in New England usually feature heavy, wet snow, so there you go).

As it stands now, total accumulation looks to be in the six inch range, give or take, in the southern third of Vermont. Areas between Route 4 and Route 2 should see two to four inches, with lesser amounts possible in the Champlain Valley.

North of Route 2, it looks like this will amount to two inches or less, except in the Northeast Kingdom where totals might be closer to three inches.

If the storm is a tiny bit colder than forecast, snow totals would go up a little.

Late tonight, the snow will taper to scattered areas of freezing drizzle, says the National Weather Service.  Roads will probably be a little slick in many areas Tuesday morning.

This storm is a quick mover, and will be out of our hair by Tuesday. There might even be a little sun in the afternoon to start melting that newly fallen snow.

As mentioned yesterday, the rest of the week looks unsettled, with frequent chances of light rain or a little snow, but for now, none of these storms seem like they will be blockbusters.

Peak March In Vermont: Some Snow, Some Rain, Lots Of Clouds Coming

You didn't think you'd get rid of the National Weather Service snow
forecast map this early, did you? Click on it to make it bigger and
easier to see. Accumulating snow is most likely
Monday night in southern Vermont. 

Despite the burst of warmth we had on Friday, it is still very early in a Vermont spring, so you can't expect too much out of the weather just yet.

Sure enough, it's not going to be that great out for the next week or so.  At least there won't be anything extreme to make matters worse in these awful times. We don't need big new problems.

It's cold out there today, but nothing super out of the ordinary for the third week in March.

For instance, it got down to 18 degrees in Burlington overnight, which is a little cooler than the normal low of 24 degrees and far, far away from the record low of 1 above.

A few places in Vermont got down into the single digits overnight. It will only get into the 30s this afternoon, despite abundant sunshine.  Enjoy that sun, as you won't see too much of it over the next week.

The most immediate issue is a moderate-sized storm that will get going around Virginia and then move northeastward just off the coast of New England.

This will come close enough to brush us with rain and especially snow.  At this point, it doesn't look like it will amount to much in northwestern Vermont - perhaps an inch or so there.  As you get into southern Vermont, several inches seem likely, especially in the higher elevations.

A winter storm watch is up for the far two southern counties of Vermont, where six inches or more of wet snow could come down by early Tuesday morning. Parts of southern New Hampshire and western and central Massachusetts are also under this warning.

In the valleys, it will start as rain or a rain/snow mix Monday afternoon, and then change to snow overnight.  All this might impact road conditions, especially the further south you go in New England.

Of course, most of us are hunkered down due to the coronavirus pandemic, so I guess the effects on the Tuesday morning "rush" hour won't be that huge.

The usual caveats apply: If this storm tracks further north than expected, then more snow will fall on more of Vermont, including the northwest. If the storm is weaker and further south, most of us will be pretty much off the hook.

In any event, it'll get into the 40s Tuesday afternoon, so any snow that does fall will start to melt right away.

After this thing blows through, there are several other disturbances that will keep New England unsettled through the week.

Another modest storm Wednesday night will take a path similar to Monday night's storm, which would spread a little more rain and snow across the area, especially south. Then, several more little systems will come through, keeping us mostly cloudy with always a risk of some occasional light rain or mountain light snow through next weekend.

Early Start To North Country Severe Weather Season

A line of strong showers and storms that prompted severe thunderstorm
warnings in New York and western Vermont Friday were nothing
like this biggie near Sheldon in May, 2018. Instead, Friday's weather
consisted of a quick moving line of mostly light showers that
brought strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. 

Some severe thunderstorm warnings went up Friday afternoon in northern New York and western Vermont, giving us an early start to the spring and summer severe weather season.

There were several reports to the National Weather Service of tree damage mostly across northern New York.  There was also a report of several small trees down around Swanton, Vermont.

This was pretty early to be getting this type of weather in the North Country. The first severe thunderstorms of the season usually don't crop up until around May.

These weren't classic late spring or summer thunderstorms, of course. Some things about the strong storms were similar to what you'd get, say, in June, but most aspects of them were not.

Very often, strong thunderstorms around here develop along or near something known as a pre-frontal trough.  A pre-frontal trough is a skinny area of lower air pressure that marks a wind shift.  This feature usually comes through, from west to east a few hours ahead of a cold front that will also come in from west to east.

In the summer, the air of ahead of this trough is often quite humid and unstable. The trough adds lift to the atmosphere, allowing towering thunderstorm clouds to grow. These summer thunderstorms will usually produce torrential downpours, frequent lightning, strong, damaging winds and hail.

Friday's storms weren't quite like that. There wasn't much lightning involved and rainfall was modest, with most places getting less than a tenth of an inch of rain. This line of storms also zipped through much more quickly than storms do in the summer.

Strong winds were blowing several thousand feet overhead Friday, and the thunderstorm clouds did reach high enough to grab some of that wind, bringing it down to the surface in damaging gusts.

The air was more stable over and east of the Green Mountains, so the storms weakened a lot by the time they got there.  That explains the lack of damage reports east of the northern Champlain Valley.

The early taste of severe weather in Vermont and New York is most definitely over.  It's back to wintry stuff for a little while.

As previously advertised, this weekend will be mostly sunny during the day, clear at night and cold throughout.  A number of places in the north and mountains won't even  make it above freezing today and tomorrow. Lows tonight will be in the single numbers and low teens, with some late season subzero readings likely in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdomf of Vermont.

There's lots of questions about a potential quick-hitting storm Monday afternoon and night. There's the potential for several inches of snow with this, especially in the mountains.  However, the computer models were still arguing over this as of Saturday morning.

Some of those models said all of Vermont would get at least some snow.  Others said northern areas might miss out.  Still other forecasts say it will be a bit too warm for snow in the valleys.

As usual, stay tuned.

Warmth Means Plants Blooming Too Early In Much Of Nation

Areas in dark read are up to 20 days early with spring budding and blooming
this year, says the National Phenology Network. 

Another burst of warmth is hitting the eastern United States today, bringing forecast temperatures to the 60s as far north as here in Vermont.

A warm winter and early spring has brought early blooms to much of the nation, especially the East and South.

In Vermont, we're far enough north so that we only see budding lilac trees, a few crocuses and sprouting daffodil shoots so far. That's awfully early, but these early signs of spring are not enough to endanger any fruit crops or anything else for that matter.

Which is good, since nighttime temperatures during an expected chilly snap this weekend will be in the single numbers and teens.

Elsewhere, there is concern for crops further south. There's fears that this year will be like 2012 and 2017, which also brought very early spring conditions. In those years, frosts ultimately came, nipping things that had started to blosssom to early in the eastern half of the nation.

A tree blossoms in my St. Albans, Vermont back yard last May.
The way things are going, the  tree will probably bloom
much earlier than usual this spring

Washington DC's famed cherry tree blooms are expected to peak in about a week, which is nearly a week ahead of normal.

Also, according to Scientific American, this year,  "Spring leaf out - the appearance of tiny leaves that signal the start of spring - arrived 24 days early for places like Washington"

And, according to the National Phenology Network, Boston is 23 days ahead of schedule for early spring leafout progress.

Long range forecasts, for what they are worth, predict generally above normal temperatures going into early April at least in the eastern United States. But even a warm pattern can be interrupted by a quick blast of frigid air from Canada.

Remember, it only takes a few hours of subfreezing air to cause damage to tender fruit tree blossoms.

In any event, I guess this year's early spring in terms of weather matches the astronomical calendar.

Astronomical spring began late last night, March 19, which is the earliest that has happened since 1896.

Storminess Update: Midwest Storms, Vermont Whiplash

The more colorful the United States map on the home page of the
National Weather Service is, the more active the weather. The
map was pretty colorful early this mornin. 

As expected, it's going to be a pretty active day in the United States as a pretty good sized storm makes its way through the middle of the nation.

There's a mix of severe weather, wind, snow and flooding out there, which has been forecast for days and is coming to fruition.

Texas was under the gun yesterday with a few areas of flooding and severe weather.

There were reports of tornadoes near Abilene, Texas last night, but damage wasn't all that bad and there were no reports of serious injuries.

Today, the main risk of severe storms and possible tornadoes will shift to much of the Midwest today, with the most concentrated risks of high winds and a few tornadoes expected in two areas:. One hot spot will be a zone in and immediately surrounding southern Illinois. That same area is also under a threat of some flooding today.

Iowa is another hot spot for the risk of severe storms, with maybe a tornado or two.  A blizzard is still expected to develop in a fairly broad area centered around the spot Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska meet.

VERMONT WEATHER

We're definitely beginning a spell of whiplash weather that'll last until Saturday.  Wait a minute and it will change, that's for sure.

There was a little snow and rain coming down in Vermont this morning mostly soutb of Route 2.  That should taper off later leaving us with a quiet and cloudy day.

Forecasters are still expecting a shot of rain late tonight and early Friday, followed by a relatively windy and warm day.  If the air mixes well, a lot of us could still make it into the 60s for highs.

A band of showers and possible rumbles should come through in the afternoon.  If some storms can grab some strong winds blowing overhead and bring those winds to the surface, an isolated spot or two in Vermont could get some gusty winds from the storms.

The latest NOAA Storm Prediction Center outlook has New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and western New England in a zone for a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Friday. This area includes the part of Vermont that is roughly south and west of Interstate 89.

A marginal risk zone is defined as one in which isolated severe storms might develop, but they will tend to not last very long.

That sharp cold front is still definitely coming through Friday night, plunging us back into winter.  High temperatures will only make it to the low 30s Saturday, despite a fair amount of sun.  Gusty northwest winds will make it feel even colder.

Sunday will also be pretty sunny, and the winds will be lighter. But it will still be cold with highs only in the 30s.

Some computer models hint at a few inches of snow for us on Tuesday but other forecasting models say no dice on that one. So stay tuned. We'll have to wait and see on that.

March Is Normally A Stormy Month. True To Form This Year

Strong rotation in a thunderstorm in Hawaii prompted a rare tornado
warning Tuesday. So far it looks like the twister did not touch down

Storms seem to be hitting different parts of the nation with some frequency this month, but that is what one should expect in March.

It's a transition month between winter and spring.  That means places that get cold winter storms  will still get them. But spring-type storm events, like severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and flash floods, are also on the increase.

Here's just a few examples and updates to prove the point.

In Hawaii, a winter season tempest known as a Kona Storm struck the state Tuesday, causing flash floods and intense thunderstorms. Two rare tornado warnings were issued, one for parts of Kauai island and the other for Niihau, but none are known to have touched down, says weather expert Dennis Mersereau, writing in Forbes. 

Elsewhere, flash flooding was ongoing in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area in Texas this morning. The flooding is the start of an expected busy weather day in Texas.

Severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes are in the forecast for most of Texas and Oklahoma, especially this afternoon and evening.  Areas of flooding are also a good bet in those same locations.  Parts of the Ohio Valley are also under a flood threat today.

More severe thunderstorms and maybe a few tornadoes are expected in much of the Mississippi Valley Thursday.

A blizzard still looms in parts of the northern Plains Thursday and Friday as well.

Here in Vermont, we expect a mix of winter and springlike weather over the next few days as well.

Forecasters have backed off a little on the snow early Thursday. It looks like light accumulations will be limited to areas south and west of Interstate 89 and even there, there won't be more than an inch or two, mostly in higher elevations.

That warm front I talked about yesterday still looks to come through late Thursday night with a good splash rain with it, especially between midnight and 7 a.m. Friday.

Friday still looks springlike in Vermont, but not the pleasant, sunshiny type of springlike day we all like. Temperatures will almost certainly soar into the 60s to maybe around 70, but it will be windy.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center put parts of the Green Mountain State into its first risk of severe thunderstorms of the season.  It's part of low but not zero risk of severe storms Friday in most of New York and Pennsylvania.

True, the risk is only marginal at this point with chances of isolated damaging winds with storms in southern Vermont Friday afternoon and evening.

Gusty showers and perhaps a thunderstorm could also occur through the rest of Vermont as well.

Behind the cold front, temperatures will crash Friday night and definitely be below freezing by Saturday morning. The front will probably bring a dusting of snow to many areas.

It'll be a chilly, kind of wintry weekend. Highs will only reach to around 32 degrees Saturday and in the 30s Sunday. By Monday, it will turn warmer again, but reach only typical levels for this time of year - somewhere in the 40s.

Blizzards, Severe Weather Coming To Central U.S.; Yo-Yo Weather Vermont

A little snow from last night melts amid raw winds on a brown, messy
lawn at my home in St. Albans, Vermont. Classic March scene, huh?
Also classic March: Very changeable weather coming

As we all hunker down to protect ourselves from Covid-19, the weather rolls on and there will be plenty of weather to talk about over the next couple of days.

Severe weather, including the risk of tornadoes, will strike parts of the South, while a blizzard rages in areas of the Northern Plains later this week.  

For Vermont, this all means the weather will be all over the place.  The yo-yo weather has begun in the Green Mountain State, and will continue all week. More on that after I set up the national picture.

A  southward dip in the jet stream over the Southwestern United States has resulted in stormy weather there in the past few days.  Local flooding and severe thunderstorms have rattled around parts of Arizona and California over the past couple of days, and feet of needed snow has been falling in the Sierra Nevada mountains.

One piece or a couple of pieces of energy did eject from that southwestern mess over the past couple of days, resulting in some snow and rain from Nebraska and South Dakota Saturday, moving eastward to northern New England today.

Another piece of stormy weather will come out of the Southwest today, causing a risk of severe weather in Texas and heavy rains in North Texas and Oklahoma.  That'll head east and cause some rain and snow once again from the Midwest to New England by Thursday.

At the same time, the main show will start to get going as a larger storm gets going over Colorado and begins to travel to the northeast, toward the Great Lakes.

This will unleash a blizzard somewhere in the northern Plains, though the exact location of the worst of it is still unfolding. There are already blizzard warnings up southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska for Thursday and Friday. Those might eventually be extended into part of the Dakotas.

Meanwhile severe storms will move into more of Texas on Thursday, and into the lower Mississippi Valley Friday.

Flooding is also possible in Oklahoma Thursday, and then extending into parts of the saturated mid-Mississippi Valley and parts of the Midwest later Thursday and Friday.

VERMONT EFFECTS

People in northern Vermont and the high elevations of southern parts of the state woke up this morning to a return to winter.  Here at my St. Albans, Vermont home, I returned from the Midwest last night to find bare ground. I woke up this morning to a little more than an inch of snow on the ground.

More scattered precipitation is likely the rest of the day, but it will be mostly rain in the valleys, and it won't be particularly heavy.  It'll be raw the rest of the day, especially in the Champlain Valley where winds are pretty gusty.

After a pleasant enough day on Wednesday with some sunshine and temperatures near 40. Then that next disturbance arrives for Thursday.  It'll be another raw day, with more rain and snow, with the snow especially prevalent in the mountains.

Again, this one won't bring a huge amount of precipitation, but it's certainly is worth watching, especially because of the risk of slippery roads in mid and high elevation snows.  Any precipitation will change to all rain as the day wears on Thursday.

Friday looks very interesting. As the large storm moves through the Great Lakes, it'll swing a warm front through New England.  The warm front will probably give us a good dousing of rain late Thursday night and Friday morning.

The warm front will bring a burst of warm, humid air all the way into northern New England.

Forecasters are currently expecting high temperatures Friday in Vermont to get into the 60s. Normal this time of year is around 40 degrees). I wouldn't be surprised if a 70 degree reading or two popped up if we get a period of sun between the showers.  As the storm's cold front approaches later on, we could get the first round of thunderstorms of the spring season. It all depends on the cold front's timing as it runs into the very mild air.

This cold front means business, and temperatures will really crash Friday night and go back below freezing.  That'll instantly freeze any lingering water on roads, so be careful Saturday morning.  It is only March, after all, so you can't expect springlike temperatures to last

We'll be left with an almost wintry weekend, with some sun, some flurries and light snow showers and high temperatures both days barely making it to the freezing point.

Whiplash, indeed!

No Surprise: Earth's Second Hottest February

The worldwide climate change heat rolls on.

Last Friday, NOAA's Centers for Environmental Information confirmed that February on Earth was hot: It was the second warmest February on record. Only February, 2016 was a little warmer.

The 2016 February record was set during an El Nino, when warmth from the eastern Pacific Ocean is released into the atmosphere, boosting global temperatures.

This year was a "neutral" El Nino year, which meant the eastern Pacific wasn't unusually hot nor cold, so there was no added heat boost to bring up global tempertures last month.

This, by the way, was the 44th consecutive warmer than normal February on Earth.  The United States, Vermont included, shared in the warm February.  Here in Vermont overall, it was the 15th warmest of thos 126 years of data.

The winter (December through February) as a whole on Earth was also the second warmest on record.

Europe was the episode of this past winter's warmth.  Russia had its toastiest winter on record, and the average temperature for the winter in Moscow was a bit above freezing, which is the first time on record that has happened.

Helsinki, Finland had no measureable snow in January and February, which is the first time on record that has happenened.

Here in Vermont, Burlington  had its eighth warmest winter on record.

The only cool winter spots were Alaska, far northwestern Canada, parts of India and a remote area of the southern Indian Ocean

You Don't Have To Be Hit By A Tornado To Receive Tornado Damage

Schematic of a tornado-producing thunderstorm from NOAA.
Click on the link to make it bigger and easier to see.
The blue down arrow behind (just to the left of the tornado
in the image) can cause as much damage as the actual tornado.

There was proof Friday, as if any experts needed any, that a tornado doesn't have to actually directly hit something to cause tornado damage.

In a remote part of western Texas near the town of Orla, halfway between El Paso and Midland-Odessa, a tornado, apparently a strong one, touched down on Friday. It pretty much went over remote scrubland, so it didn't cause much direct damage.

However, a nearby RV park had some serious damage, and one person was injured.  The tornado did not hit the RV park. The culprit? Something called a rear-flank downdraft. 

A rear-flank downdraft is an area of often very strong winds near and mostly to the back side of a tornado or rotating wall cloud, which is often called a mesocyclone.  (The wall cloud or mesocyclone is often but not always a precursor to a tornado).

It's created by a strong downdraft behind the mesocyclone that hits the ground, with great force, spreading out and causing strong straight-line winds.

That's why if you receive a tornado warning but the tornado itself seems to be heading to a point near, but not over your house, take your tornado safety precautions anyway.

For one thing, the tornado could unpredictably change course and run you over.  Or the tornado could miss, but you'd still be in the rear flank downdraft.

In the case of the Orla, Texas rear flank downdraft, the wind hit speeds of 100-130 mph, equivalent to an EF-2 tornado, notes the the National Weather Service in Midland-Odessa, Texas.  That's why thre was so much damage there.

The video below shows a very close miss by the big tornado in Tuscaloosa, Alabama in 2011.

You'll see the tornado pass by basically across the parking lot from the videographer at about 1:10 to 1:22 into the video. The very strong left to right winds immediately following the tornado starting at about 1:22 or so is the rear flank downdraft. As you can see, the winds in the downdraft seem at least as strong as at the edge of the tornado itself.

The rear flank downdraft winds wane a little, but still continue very strong for at least another two minutes after the tornado.

Watch:

Busier Weather Pattern Coming, Typical For March

Weather map showing the "Storm Of The Century on March 13, 1993.
We don't expect anything close to this extreme anytime soon in the
United States, but a stormier pattern is on its way, typical of March. 

Mid-March is typically a very busy time on the national weather maps.  There are frequently very big storms to contend with right around this time of year.

The past couple of days and today are the anniversaries of the Great Blizzard of 1888, which dumped up to 50 inches of snow on the Northeast with drifts to 40 feet. (!!!)

It's also the anniversary of the "Storm Of The Century" Superstorm  of 1993, which struck from the Gulf Coast to southeastern Canada (including Vermont).  It was the costliest non-tropical storm in U.S. history.

More recently, a bomb cyclone triggered record flooding in Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and Minnesota in mid-March last year. The Pi Day blizzard struck Vermont and surrounding areas in 2017 with more than two feet of snow in some areas.  

We don't expect anything like those storms in the coming days, but the weather pattern, already a bit active, looks like it will crank up a bit more.

An initial storm in the middle of the nation is no great shakes.  I'm out in Yankton, South Dakota at the moment and I awoke to an inch or two of snow on the ground here.  Down in Nebraska, there's up to six inches of snow. This small thing will gently slap Vermont with some rain showers on Tuesday.

The atmosphere is reloading, though.  California is in for a wet weekend, with lots of snow in the Sierra Nevada. That's actually a good thing. February was remarkably dry, so that rain is welcome. The several feet of snow expected in the highest elevations there will bring the snow pack there a little closer to normal.

That's important because California needs the melting snow from the mountains later this spring and summer to replenish reservoirs.

Eventually, a lot of this energy from California will emerge into the Plains states by the middle or end of the upcoming week.  It's way too soon to say exactly how this will evolve, but there's definitely a good chance of a northern or central Plains blizzard, and severe weather in the South.

I doubt this storm will reach the extremes I cited above, but it will probably cause trouble nonetheless.

We'll watch how this shakes out in the coming days.  I also have no idea at this point how or even if this storm will affect us in Vermont.

After that, more impulses will come in from the Pacific Ocean and cross the nation through the rest of the month.  They might not be gigantic storms, but it will keep the weather interesting through the rest of the month.

That's just another example of how busy March can be for weather forecasters.

Don't Count On Summer Warmth To Squelch Coronavirus

Coronavirus has spread to most nations (blue shading) and will
continue to envelope the world  Viruses often wane in the
 summer, but don't count on that with th coronavirus. 

As all of us know, the coronavirus pandemic we're enduring is much worse than seasonal flu we get every year.  Many more people will die from this than the regular flu, which is why we are all in a panic.

This virus has some simularities to the flu virus though.  The usual flu the world gets every year tends to wane in the summer, as warm weather seems to hinder its spread.  That begs the question: Will we get a similar warm weather break with the coronavirus?

The answer seems to be: Don't count on it, but maybe. Even if it does wane in the summer, that won't solve our problems.

As National Geographic reports, recent research indicates many viruses are more likely to stay intact and travel further in cold, dry air.  These viruses tend not to spread well in warm, humid air.   Some scientists think that low humidity, - you know the dry indoor air we deal with in the winter - makes mucus in the nose function less efficiently.

That mucus helps block viruses and bacteria from getting into your body, and the cold air might weaken that barrier, National Geographic notes. 

Additionally, summer tends to be sunnier than winter, and viruses usually don't do well in sunshine.

Of course, summer doesn't give complete protection from viruses. People still get sick in the summer.

This conronavirus now torturing us is new, so scientists really don't know whether it will wane in the upcoming warm weather in late spring and summer.  We are totally NOT off the hook, I can tell you that.

The current pandemic is seen around the world, including the Southern Hemisphere, where summer is just ending. (Actor Tom Hanks and his wife Rita Wilson recently announced they have the virus, and they caught it in summertime Australia).

It's unclear if the coronavirus will get worse in the Southern Hemisphere as their winter sets in.  The bottom line is scientists really don't know if the coronavirus will wax and wane with the seasons.  Plus, viruses circulate all year in the hot, humid tropics, so summer isn't exactly a disinfectant.

Dr. Marc Lipsitch, Director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, writes that  "new" viruses like the current coronavirus have an advantage.  Pretty much nobody is immune to it,  unlike "old" viruses that have been circulating for years.

New viruses can jump from host to host, person to person freely, without any interference from warm summer weather.  The new viruses like the one in the current pandemic have plenty of low hanging fruit to seize.

Older viruses, not so much.  Lipsitch writes: "Old viruses, which have been in the population longer, operate on a thinner margin - most individuals are immune, and they have to make do with transmitting among a few who aren't. In simple terms, viruses that have been around for a long time can make a living - spreading through the population - only when the conditions are the most favorable, in this case, in winter."

Even if summer gives us a slight break from the coronavirus,  it could easily come roaring back in the autumn.

Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University researcher on the flu-weather connection thinks that the virus will continue to rapidly expand in the United States and elsewhere through the month of April, and might finally start to decline in late May or June. This, according to a report by Bob Henson in the Category 6 Weather Underground blog. 

It we get lucky and the coronavirus does wane in the summer, that buys us a little time to get a handle on it. But even so, it would probably come roaring back in the autumn, before humanity has had a chance to develop a vaccine and innoculate people around the world.

One ominous precedent, according to Henson in the Category 6 blog, was the great pandemic of 1918. Sporadic cases popped up in March of that year, but seemed to subside.  Then the pandemic roared to life, killing 195,000 Americans in just the span of a month in October, 2018.  The pandemic would go on to kill many more.

Whether or not this coronavirus ends up being a seasonal thing, a lot of scientists say it's here to stay, and will circulate around the globe perhaps forever, always sickening and killing people.  That's why it's so important to develop a vaccine against this thing to limit the damage and prevent the vast majority of the world from continuing to all victim to the disease year after year.

Scientists are working intensely to develop a vaccine, but one that works is more than a year away, likely more than that.

I don't offer this report just because I want to scare people. It's just to tell you we are in this for the long haul.  Keep washing your hands, folks, and keep up the social isolation.