Enormous Winter Storm Continues Its Slow, Hard Hitting Cross-Country Trip

Current forecasts have far southern Vermont getting a HUGE
dump with the oncoming storm, with up to two feet of
accumulations in some spots. The Canadian border MIGHT miss out
with only an inch or two, but surprises could happen!

That impressive storm that's been blasting the West with snow, blizzardy weather, and lowland flooding and damaging wind continues its eastbound trek today, and it will continue to be a doozy for many.

For us Vermonters, it's still looking like it will be a tale of two different worlds.

As it stands now, if you're along the Massachusetts border, you're going to get crushed. If you're along the Canadian border, you'll be asking what all the fuss is about. In the middle, we'll see.  

Plus, there's usually surprised with these things. More on what will go on in Vermont in a minute. First, the overview.

I'm impressed by how far winter storm warnings stretch - all the way from Montana and Wyoming to far southern Vermont and western Massachusetts.  It's quite a storm with an awful lot of moisture to be able to spit out that much snow.  The entire winter storm warning zone is up for at least six inches of snow, with a few places possibly closing in on two feet.

Blizzard conditions are still likely in western South Dakota and northwest Nebraska, and also along the western shore of Lake Superior.  What makes this storm rough, among other things, is there's a lot of wind with it. Even more important, it's not in a hurry. Which means anyone along the path of the storm can expect a long lasting snowfall. Or ice.  Which heaps up the snow and ice even more.

As it heads east, there are some questions about how far north freezing rain and sleet gets.  The worst of the ice looks like it will extend from central Michigan, through southern Ontario and into Pennsylvania.

The freezing rain in Ontario and especially parts of Pennsylvania looks like it could be bad enough to do a lot of damage to trees and powerlines.

In the Northeast, it looks llike the heaviest snow will go through central New York, including the Albany Capital district and central New England. Even there, question marks about. Some models give that area up to two feet of snow, with a good shot of at least a foot.  Again, though, how far north does the freezing rain get?

If the ice goes more north, these areas will have less snow, with the trade off being more treacherous ice. (I certainly would hope for more snow and less ice if I lived in this area.) Right now it's looking like parts of Connecticut and Massachusetts could also have real problems with freezing rain.

The precipitation in the Northeast will come in waves and take quite awhile to pass. The original storm from the west will move in during the day Sunday.  If you have travel plans that take you through central and southern New England, i.e. if you have to get south, do it today.  You WON'T be happy if you try it tomorrow.

The rough weather, once it arrives during the day Sunday, will last into Tuesday. Monday will surely be a mess in much of the Northeast, with terrible roads, lots of flight delays and all the disruptions you can muster in a winter storm.

On Monday, there will be periods when the snow or schmutz comes down really, really hard in these area. You might see snowfall rates at times of two or three inches an hour in the storm's bullseye zone.

VERMONT IMPACTS

With every winter storm, I wonder what the surprises will be as the build up to the storm approaches. The biggest surprises will probably be in central Vermont, and maybe northern Vermont.  That's the zone where we don't know how well deep moisture from the storm will infiltrate.

As it stands now, as of this Saturday morning, far southern Vermont is in the crush zone, with a good foot of snow or more expected between Sunday afternoon in the state's two southernmost counties.  If no ice mixes in, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few two foot reports from favored spots in the far south.

The middle of Vermont is a wildcard.  There will be a lot of opportunity for it to snow most of the time from Sunday night to Tuesday morning, with that lull Sunday night. But will the storm's deeper moisture get into central Vermont? Or will it be just light stuff?

There is a winter storm watch up for Rutland and Windsor counties for the potential for six inches or more of snow.  But not a warning like far southern Vermont.  There's still too many questions. Worst (or best, depending on your perspective) would be a foot of snow near Route 4.

Further north up to around at least Route 2 has to be watched, too. These areas are expecting only a few inches of snow, but a little jog north with the storm or its moisture, and more could fall there, to. Which will win out? Dry air from Quebec, or wet air from the storm?  We need to keep an eye on that.

The east slopes of the Green Mountains could make out well, too. East winds with the storm will be forced to rise up the slopes, unleashing additional snow.

Those of us along the Canadian border shouldn't count on getting away scott-free either.  As it stands now, those very light accumulation forecasts look like a good bet. But watch that storm track!  Those of us who can see Canada from our houses still aren't yet guaranteed to miss out.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has snow coming into southern Vermont midday Sunday and slow spreading north, getting to the north by late afternoon.  It might not ever make it to the Canadian border at all, though, on Sunday night.

There will probably be a lull pretty much region wide Sunday night, but snow will pick up again Monday as the new coastal storm takes over. If anybody gets blasted by the heaviest snow, it would be on Monday.

This will all be good for the ski areas.  Some Vermont resorts are in for a big dump. Those that miss out will get free advertising from the storm, and it will be cold enough to make snow, AND there will be minor systems coming through over the next week or so to keep replenishing things.

I'm sure the winter sports types are happy.

Wintry Rest Of The Weekend For Vermont, Much Of Rest Of Nation

This is just one model of the potential storm on Sunday and Monday.
This run of the European model dumps a foot and a half of snow
on the Albany, New York Capital District and interior southern
New England. CAUTION: This is just one run and one model. I pretty much
guarantee the storm won't play out like this, but it gives an idea of
where the early thinking of where the storm might focus. Note
that it could go further north or south than this, or be stronger
or weaker than this.  Time will tell.

The well-heralded second, stronger storm of the Thanksgiving week is gathering strength this morning over the western half of the nation as part of a coast-to-coast ride that is providin and will continue to provide lots of ugly weather for most of the nation.

 It's a wide ranging, large storm, so almost everybody gets in on the action. 

After coming ashore in Oregon the other day as a powerful, deep windstorm, this one settled into the Southwest on Thanksgiving, dropping lots of rain, firing up strong thunderstorms and flash floods in southern California and Arizona.

There was even a tornado warning early this morning for parts of the Phoenix metro area.

This storm is also dumping boatloads of snow in higher elevations. Some snow even came down in not-so-high elevations.

Interstate 5 - The so called Grapevine in the mountains east of Los Angeles, shut down yesterday due to heavy snow and many stuck cars.

The storm is gathering itself, and will cause major trouble today and tomorrow through a huge area of the western and central United States.

Winter storm and blizzard warnings extend from Arizona, through the central Rockies and into a big, big portion of the northern Plains.

To its south, severe weather and possible tornadoes could break out in and around Louisiana Saturday.

This type of storm track usually has the action going by to our west and we Vermonters get a squirt of warm air ahead of the storm before the inevitable cold front with the storm comes through.

Not this time. The storm will take an unusual path. Instead of continuing on toward the Great Lakes, it seems the storm will take an abrupt right turn once it gets to about Nebraska. Then it will head east or even a little south of east  toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, where a new storm will develop, and turn into a pretty typical nor'easter.

There will be a nasty stripe of snow and ice north of the storm's path. It's not a fast mover, either, so there could be time to drop a lot of precipitation where it concentrates itself. 

It's unclear how far north the snow will get given the storm's kind of strange path Southern and central New England have the potential at least to get quite a dump.

Here in Vermont, the south could get a lot and the north would largely miss out.  Computer trends with this storm have trended a bit south, so if that prediction sticks, northern Vermont would only get a little snow Sunday night and Monday.

But, that's no guarantee.  If the storm jogs just a little north, the whole state could get a good dump of snow out of this. No promises yet either way.

OTHER ISSUES

Before we get to that, note that there's areas of freezing drizzle in Vermont this morning. If you've headed out to the silly Black Friday store buster deals, don't hurry too much. Roads are slick in spots.

Plus, whether or not we get snow in Vermont later Sunday into Monday, it's going to be wintry cold again. After a brief break in the days leading up to Thanksgiving, we're stuck back in the early start to winter.   It's going to be a long one, folks.

Meet Hector, The Latest Weather Celebrity That's Actually Been Around Forever

Hector, the world's most reliable daily thunderstorm, pops up around
3 p.m. daily off the northern tip of Australia. 

Like clockwork, every day around 3 p.m or so between September and December, a big thunderstorm develops explosively over some two islands off the north shore of Australia.

The thunderstorm or thunderstorms are so reliable, like a good friend who pops in to see you everyday for an afternoon tea, the storm has a name. Meet Hector.

Weather is usually random and prone to surprising people. Which is why I like Hector so much.  It's the Old Faithful of weather.

Hector has alway been there, as far back as people can remember, but for some reason it's gotten a lot of publicity this year. Just randomly, I guess. Unlike reliable Hector itself, which keeps popping up as scheduled.

I like the fact that Hector gets so much attention.  At any given moment, there are something like 2,000 thunderstorms in progress on Earth. But most of those pop up and die in varying places, depending on whether there are storms are converging winds nearby.

Converging winds are why Hector gets going every day.  He forms over two islands named Bathurst and Melville.  The islands are somewhat pyramid shaped, so the converging winds hit the islands, and the air has to rise up the slopes of these "pyramids" and voila! You have Hector.

Hector was apparently named by World War II pilots flying between Darwin, in northern Australia and Papua, New Guinea because he is such a landmark. The thunderstorm towers high into the atmosphere, so pilots and others can see Hector from a great distance.

Much like you might use a big water tower or tall building to orient yourself in an unfamiliar city, pilots used Hector to orient themselves as they flew north of Australia.

Photographers love Hector, because who doesn't love photos of thunderstorms? Meteorologists who study storms love Hector, too. He's so reliable, there's almost no guess work with it.

I love thunderstorms, too, but living here in Vermont, I'm not exactly in the lightning and thunder capital of the world.  Maybe someday I'll go visit Hector.

Here's an rather engaging video from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology that explains Hector:

Quick Wednesday Update: Thanksgiving Travel OK In Vermont, Not So Elsewhere

Travel probably won't be this bad on Thanksgiving in Vermont, but
watch out for some slick spots, especially Thursday morning, as
snow showers bluster through Vermont. 

Thanksgiving travel conditions this year won't be perfect in Vermont, but unlike in many other parts o the nation, it won't be that bad around here.

Not bad, but not perfect, either.

Yesterday was the warmest day since November 1, and we got to enjoy some sunshine, too.

That's pretty rare for this time of year. The sunshine is pretty much over for awhile, except we will have some fading sunshine this morning as the next storm moves in.

The precipitation will be in the form of rain when it arrives this afternoon and continues well into the evening. The bright side to that is it won't be freezing rain, as temperatures will stay well above freezing during the bulk of the precipitation.

Things will be a little trickier for you on Thanksgiving Day if, like me, you are traveling over the fields and through the woods to grandmother's house or whatever.

By morning, the rain showers will have mostly changed to snow showers. There will be slick spots on the roads, especially the higher you go.  For instance, that high spot on Interstate 89 east of Montpelier could get rather snow covered and icy.

Lower elevations, like in the Champlain Valley, will have some slushy areas, too, but this isn't a huge deal. Just take it a little more slowly than you normally would and you'll be fine.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says Thanksgiving snow accumulation will range from nothing to a dusting in most valleys, with one or two inches when you go a little higher.

The potential storm on Sunday is still a wildcard. It's unclear which direction it will take once it reaches the East Coast. We run the risk of having a snowstorm Sunday into Monday, but we just don't know for sure yet. The whole thing could even miss, for all we know.

Check back Friday and Saturday for updates.

"Historic" Oregon Storm Could Have Vermont Effects, Too

When the national map of the National Weather Service home page is
very colorful, you know it's stormy and there are lots of hazards.
This year, just in time for the Thanksgiving travel week.

Our stormy Thanksgiving week continues apace in the United States as two large storms continue to have a big impact on travel and in some cases, just the day to day life for people.

Fellow Vermonters might be asking me what the hell I'm talking about, since the weather Monday was so mellow, and nothing special is going to happen today in the weather department.

 (Burlington, Vermont made it to 50 degrees Monday, which is no big deal for this time of year, but still the hottest day since way back on November 4.)

But, as noted yesterday, two big storms are affecting other parts of the United States, so us Vermonters are kind of getting spared this time.

 The first storm coming across the United States is a strong one, the second one even worse.

There's a remarkably broad strip of the central United States stretching from Colorado and Wyoming all the way to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan that's under a winter storm warning for the first storm. A blizzard warning is up for parts of Colorado.

 I guess my in-laws over in Yankton, South Dakota are going to have a white Thanksgiving, since they are under that winter storm warning. Expect four to nine inches of snow there, with winds of up to 40 mph. Ugh.

Another big area just to the south of this storm is under high wind warnings and wind advisories.  Also, a few severe thunderstorms and a tornado or two could pop up today in the mid-Mississippi Valley today.

For us in Vermont, this first storm won't be too bad. We'll get a decent slug of rain Wednesday afternoon and night. Falling temperatures on Thanksgiving will change the rain to snow showers, but accumulations won't be all that much -- maybe a couple inches in the mountains.

It will be quite windy Wednesday night and Thanksgiving with this storm, so there might be isolated power outages. But it won't be anything close to what we had to deal with in that epic Halloween storm a few weeks back.

Then it's that "historic" storm in Oregon.  A powerhouse of a tempest is coming ashore in Oregon today, with hurricane force gusts along the coast and heavy inland snows. In many areas of Oregon and northwestern California, this has the makings of being among the worst storms in decades. Power will be out for some people in that region through Thanksgiving.

This storm will remain very powerful as it crosses the Lower 48 between now and Sunday. Expect severe weather in the South, and blizzardy weather in the northern Plains and lots of wind in between.

For us, this storm has an uncertain future. Some computer models have the storm producing another snowstorm for Vermont on Sunday. Other models take it too far south to give us much of anything, and a few models take it far enough north to give us mixed precipitation.

Stay tuned, is what I always say.

Winter Update And a Strange Norwegian Guy Embraces Winter, With The Help Of Vodka

As this projected weather map shows, two very strong
storms on Wednesday will disrupt Thanksgiving
travel across much of the United States.

Yesterday's storm in Vermont, as expected, pulled a few surprises.  Central Vermont, as expected, got two to four inches of wet snow, sleet and slush.

However, the light snow and rain that forecasters thought would develop in the Champlain Valley never materialized.

From Burlington north, it was a dark, gloomy Sunday with a heavy, thick overcast, but no precipitation fell. (It gave me a chance to do a little work outdoors, which was nice.)

That storm's gone, but it looks like Thanksgiving week travel is going to be a challenge for much of the United States.

The first storm will travel from the central Rockies, through the middle of the Plains and into the Great Lakes Wednesday.  This will lay down a stripe of heavy snow from Denver to Minneapolis to the northwestern Great Lakes Tuesday through Wednesday. That will cause a lot of problems and flight delays for sure.

Here in Vermont, that storm will give us a slug of of rain Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by mostly light snow, gusty winds and cold weather on Thanksgiving.

Meanwhile a beast of a storm is due to crash ashore in Oregon Tuesday night with its own package of strong winds, snow and rain on the West Coast.  The storm will reorganize over the southern Rockies and then emerge over the Plains late in the week, so the trip home from wherever your going will be a challenge, too.   It looks like that one will be a big, disruptive coast-to-coast storm.

No rest of the weary.

So, with that in mind, I found this odd little video from a guy in Norway who is a bit enthusiastic about the onset of winter. Certainly more than me.

Clad only in black underwear, he cleans off his car, drives to a frozen bath tub, cuts up the ice with a chain saw and relaxes in that icy tub.  It's apparent that copious amounts of vodka are helping with this. And for some reason he's got a little doll to help him out with this adventure.

In other words, DON'T try this at home.  But the video is oddly entertaining nevertheless. Watch:

Sunday Vermont Storm Update: Still Oddly Uncertain

The latest snow accumulation map looks light, but looks are deceiving.
Those expected three or four inch totals in the eastern half of
Vermont for today involve heavy, wet snow, sleet and
freezing rain. It could be enough to trigger scattered power failures.

As precipitation began moving into southern Vermont this Sunday morning, there were still a lot of question marks as to how this storm would behave.

We knew this would be a hard storm to forecast, but this is ridiculous.

I'm not faulting meteorologists who are monitoring the storm. I'm faulting the storm, which is a supremely tricky one to forecast.

Overall, forecasts have cut back since yesterday on expected accumulations. A winter weather advisory is up south and east of very roughly a Middlebury to Newport line in Vermont today.

Precipitation types will be tricky in the advisory area.  It seems like there might be a little more sleet and freezing rain thrown in than earlier expected. With temperatures expected to be near or just a smidge above freezing in most spots, exactly what will fall from the sky today is questionable. Expect surprises.

There's still going to be wet snow in this zone, too, especially this afternoon, when winds turn a bit more northerly, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington. Those under the winter weather advisory should get three to five inches of wet snow, sleet and ice, which is enough to cause some scattered power failures.

Further north and west, in the Champlain Valley, the forecast is equally tricky, though we know precipitation will be lighter there.  The questions are: Will the moisture streaming in from the storm be enough to overcome the dry air in place? Or will much of the oncoming precipitation dry up before it gets here.

The current forecasts call for an inch or two of schmutz in the Champlain Valley today, with a mix of rain, sleet and wet snow expected. It's not a huge storm here at all, but could cause some travel issues, and make Sunday afternoon a good time to stay indoors and watch football or something.

Things clear out tonight. We'll actually get a couple days of relatively mild weather (highs in the 40s) before winter returns with a windy rain storm, and an even windier and much colder Thanksgiving.  Rapidly falling temperatures and numerous snow showers on Thanksgiving will make the roads iffy, too. Oh, joy!

Here We Go Again: More Vermont Winter Weather

This morning's take from the National Weather Service in South Burlington
as to how much snow they think will fall tomorrow. Central and northeastern
Vermont seem to be in for the most. Expect this map to change,
as it's a tricky storm forecast.

Skiers and other winter sports fans will be happy, people holding out a slim hope ot finish fall chores will not:  Another bout of stormy winter weather is about to hit Vermont.

It's been an nearly unrelenting, remarkably early winter, and the next episode consists of a very hard to forecast storm expected to hit Vermont Sunday.

When forecasters looked at the situation on Friday, it seemed the storm would go far enough to the south such that only the southeastern half of Vermont would be affected and even then, most places would come out with not too much snow.

This morning, the National Weather Service in South Burlington says overnight guidance has shifted everything to the north and west.  That means it appears even the northwest corner of Vermont will probably get a least a little bit of snow and schmutz.

At this point, a good chunk of central and northeastern Vermont will get the worst of it. These areas are now under a winter storm watch for most of the day Sunday.  In those spots, predictions call for four to eight inches of heavy, wet snow, possibly mixed with some icing.  That winter storm  also extends into  northern New Hampshire and western Maine.

Most winter storms in New England are hard to predict and never come out exactly the way meteorologists predict.   Sunday's storm has an even higher bust potential than most storms.

There's a lot of things that can screw up the current forecast, so take any prediction with a bit of a grain of road salt. First of all, temperatures through a pretty thick layer of the atmosphere from the surface to a few thousand feet overhead look like they're going to be right near 32 degrees for most of the storm and in most of Vermont.

Freezing rain or even a bit of plain rain could mix in especially in the valleys of southern Vermont, perhaps from very roughly Route 4 south. NWS Burlington thinks the heaviest snow will come down along the spine and east slopes of the Green Mountains from about Killlington north.

The snow is likely to be wet and heavy, which raises the fear of more power outages where the snow comes down the hardest late Sunday morning and afternoon.

The Champlain Valley is a wild card with this storm. Earliest guesses call for one to four inches of wet snow in that area.  However, if the storm keeps trending even a bit further northwestward, we could get a lot more. Or, if the temperature is a degree or two warmer than expected, rain might mix in.

Computer models still have not settled on a precise storm track, either.  It could go a little more to the north and west, causing more snow up north, or bringing in more warm air to change some areas to rain or freezing rain. Or, we could go back toward Friday's scenario, which would have far northwestern sections escape most of this.  So yeah, it's iffy.

The bottom line is to expect some lousy weather nearly statewide Sunday. Lousy, that is, unless you're into skiing or riding, because many of the ski resorts seem to be in for another installment of snow.

Wet snow is especially slippery to drive on, so you might want to consider postponing travel on Sunday, or taking off today instead.

And remember, I almost guarantee the storm won't play out exactly how I laid it out in this post.  This just gives you a general idea of where this is going.  There will be changes and surprises with this one.

There's no rest for the weary. Another storm will come along for the big travel day on Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving. At this point, it looks like that one will be mostly rain locally, but you never know.

Much colder air and snow showers will arrive Wednesday night and Thanksgiving, so I'm sure there will be some travel issues during that time frame, too.

Fire Threat In California To Ease As Rains Move In

The Kincade Fire in parched northern California started October 23 and was
finally fully contained on November 6. Rain is finally in the California
forecast, which will dampen further fire risk. Photo by Josh
Edelson AFP/Getty Images

In the good news department, California's fire season looks like it's about to come to an end.

Over the next week, rain and mountain snow is expected to hit the entire state.  It won't be an extreme amount of precipitation, but it will tamp down the fire threat.

Some rain has already fallen in southern California earlier this week, but northern parts of the state remained dry.

That's a bit of an odd pattern. During the onset of the West Coast rainy season,  successive storms gradually work their way south, first wetting down the north then finally making things damp in the south later on.

The rain was welcome there, and in neighboring Arizona and Utah.  Rain fell on St. George, Utah the other day after a record 155 dry days. 

It's been really dry in northern California, which explains the wildfires in October and earlier this month there. Not a drop of rain fell on San Francisco in October and so far this month.  They should have had roughly 2.5 inches of rain during that period.

This has been a recent pattern in northern California, in which the late autumn wet season starts late.  Last year, California's deadliest fire on record destroyed the town of Paradise, killing more than 80 people. The fire started on November 8, a time of year that should have already  had some autumn rains, but there hadn't been anything.

Rainfall starting next Tuesday in northern California is likely to be modest, probably a quarter inch to up to an inch in spots. Hey, they'll take anything they can get.

The rain and snow that's coming won't entirely erase the fire threat, of course. Winter dry spells can still raise the risk of fires, especially in southern California.

Plus, they'l have to watch out for heavier storms as the winter progresses, especially where there have been fires. The blazes wiped out vegetation that would hold soil and rocks in place.  That means heavy rainfall can trigger mudslides and debris flows.

California, as beautiful as it is, certainly has its hazards, doesn't it?

This 'N That: Southeast Tidal Flooding; Late Tropical Storm

A car makes its way through King Tide flooding recently in South Florida.
Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images via Weather Underground.

The southeastern United States has had their hands full for more than a week now with so called "nuisance flooding," in which high tides have caused repeated bouts of minor flooding along the East Coast.

The cause was a combination of astronomically higher tides this time of year, an offshore storm that drove water toward shore, sinking land masses, and climate change.

These are very similar to the factors that caused the severe flooding in Venice, Italy over the past week.  

Some of the East Coast flooding was damaging, especially during the height of the offshore nor'easter a few days ago in North Carolina.

Along the Outer Banks, officials were almost ready to open main roads like North Carolina Route 12, damaged by Hurricane Dorian earlier this year, when the latest storm undid much of that work. They'll have to start over.

Down around Miami, there's not much in the way of destruction, but the tides have run above normal daily for at least a week. The land isn't sinking there, so a lot of this is climate related.

As I've said, higher tides usually come in the autumn around Miami and northeasterly winds have driven added water ashore. But before sea levels began rising decades ago, this minor, daily nuisance flooding wasn't nearly the factor it is now.

That's because these minor "sunny day floods" are just so much more frequent now.  The amount to streets and parking lots having several inches of water on them. But these repeated salt water inundations, though not deep, can eventually cause a lot of damage to buildings and infrastructure.

Remember, salt is corrosive, which is why our cars rust so easily here in Vermont. We're always driving on salted roads in the winter.

As Weather Underground's Category 6 blog notes, citing work by NOAA oceanographer and nuisance flood expert William Sweet:

"Sea level in Miami has risen about six inches in the last 25 years, according to Sweet. That's roughly twice the global average for seal leel rise since 1993 of about 3 inches as calculated by the University of Colorado Boulder - not because of subsidence, but because of shifting ocean and atmosphere patterns that are pushing more water into the coast.

TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN

Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean is coming to a close - the season officially ends November 30, but you can still get an occasional tropical storm or hurricane after that.

There is one last hurrah going on out there. Tropical Storm Sebastien formed the other day in the central Atlantic Ocean.  It's been slowly gaining strength, even though it is rather disorganized.

Forecasters think Sebastien might strengthen into a hurricane in the next couple of days as it heads northeastward over open water.  The good news is it's very unlikely to affect land.  It's awfully late in the season for a tropical storm to form where it is - far to the northeast of Puerto Rico. But it's not unheard of.

It's good that what will likely be the final sendoff to the 2019 hurricane season will be so harmless.

Despite North American Cold Blob, Globe Was Second Warmest In October

The western and central United States had one of their coldest Octobers on record this year.

That was a big anomaly: Pretty much all of the rest of the world was unusually warm, enough to make October, 2019, the second warmest on record for Earth as a whole.   Which goes to prove, if it's cold in your backyard, that doesn't mean climate change is canceled.

Accordig to the NOAA's National Centers for Climate Information, the central United States was the only real cold spot in a warm world last month. Says the agency:

"Record warm October temperatures were mainly present across parts of the North and Western Pacific Ocean and northeastern Canada, as well as scattered across parts of the South Atlantic Ocean, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, the Indian Ocean and South America."

Additionally, Arctic sea ice extent was the lowest on record for October.  Antarctic sea ice extent was also below normal.

Some scientists are tying the unusually cold weather in the central and western United States in October, and the record chill in the eastern two thirds of the United States so far in November to that lack of sea ice.

When the jet stream is wavier than usual - meaning bigger northward bulges toward the north and deeper dips southward, the weather gets more extreme.  A big dip in the jet stream has repeatedly set up over central North America, causing the cold waves in the United States.

Some research suggests that a lack of Arctic sea ice can make the jet stream wavier, and make it stick in more persistent patterns.  This could be one major contributing factor making muh of the United States cold while most of the rest of the world bakes.

I would add that this research still isn't conclusive. Plus, with or without climate change, there is still going to be variability in weather and climate month to month and in different locations.  Climate change does not cancel out other factors that can influence the weather in your back yard, as I've already noted.

On top of all this, the year 2019 so far is the second warmest on record for the Globe.  Highlighting the persistence of weather patterns this year, it looks like parts of the central United States will be an outlier.  The whole year has been generally chilly in that part of the world.

Usually and traditionally,  when global temperatures are near record highs, there's an El Nino pattern going on, which is a warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean off South America.  El Ninos tend to make the world a little hotter than it otherwise would be. But there's no El Nino going on now, which makes the October heat pretty impressive.

November, as we well know, has been brutally cold around here in Vermont. Still, I bet on a global basis, the current month will be another very warm one.

Vermont's Icy Morning: Schools Closed, Slip Sliding Away, Cabin Fever Ensues

A view of my driveway in St. Albans, Vermont, which was a skating
rink this morning. If the photo seems blurry, it's because I was
also clinging desperately to the back of my truck at the time to
avoid sliding downhill and falling. 

Boy, it is quite a mess out there in Vermont this morning, proving that it doesn't take a lot of freezing rain to shut things down.

As expected,  light freezing rain fell across most of the state overnight. It lasted a bit longer into the morning than expected.

As of 9:30 a.m., a change to snow was slowly moving south to north across Vermont, but the damage is done. Most Vermont schools are closed, as districts didn't want to take a chance on that glare, smooth ice.

The main roads have been treated, so they're probably not the worst they can be. Side roads and sidewalks? Fughettabout it!!!

All I know is I can't even get to my truck to scrape the ice off it. It's parked on a slight incline in my driveway and when I try to gingerly walk out to the truck, I slide right by.  I'm stuck at home again by a winter storm, for the second Tuesday in a row.

Had all the precipitation been snow, this would have been no big deal. We would have gotten one to four inches of fluff, and Vermont life would have gone on as normal.  Instead, Vermont schools have already racked up two snow days, and it's only November.

On the bright side, the ice is mostly not heavy enough to damage trees and power lines. There are a handfull of outages in southeastern Vermont, where freezing rain was a bit heavier and some heavy, wet snow mixed in as well.

Since a thin layer of snow will fall atop the ice in most locations, and temperatures will either barely rise above freezing today or not reach 32 degrees at all, it's going to be treacherous underfoot for quite awhile.

The main roads will continue to improve as precipitation tapers off later today, but be careful walking or driving on back roads for a few days.  I'm afraid there will be plenty of emergency room visits from falls over the next couple of days.

By the way, according to Vermont labor law, if you are entitled to sick days at work, you are legally allowed to take a sick day to deal with your kids who are not in school. Of course, low income kids get free lunches at school. If they're not in school, they don't get that free lunch. Their cash-strapped families have to figure that out on their own.

For those of you who are young and spry, it might be a good idea to check in on elderly and disabled people to see if you can bring anything to them. That way, they won't have to risk it on our nearly statewide skating rink.

There might be some more minor accumulations of snow tomorrow, especially in the mountains. It won't be anything great - a trace to two inches at most.

Another weather front is due Friday, which could bring us another bout of snow showers or snow squalls - all this preceded by some rain.

Temperatures will remain frustratingly below normal at least through next Sunday.  If you have snow and ice on the ground, chances are most of it will stick around for quite awhile yet.

Two Very Different Problems With Ice In Vermont And Australia

The National Weather Service in South Burlington had adjusted its forecast
slightly and delayed the expected onset of freezing rain later today.
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see. In the Champlain
Valley, many of us have a shot of making it home from work before
the roads ice up.

There's some slightly good news in the forecast regarding the freezing rain and sleet that's expected to hit Vermont later today and tonight.  And at least we're not having other problems with destructive balls of ice like Australia had this weekend. (More on that further down, with videos).

Let's get into Vermont first. 

It looks like the onset of this icky precipitation will be a little later and a little lighter than first forecast. It looks like only spotty, very light freezing rain will hit in time for this afternoon's commute, especially west of the Green Mountains.

East of the Greens, it will be a little worse.

We're still going to get the ice, it's just coming later, mostly overnight.  Ice accumulations are still not expected to be whopping. The trees and power lines are pretty much safe. But anyone traveling tonight and overnight can expect really icy roads.  It'll be a good night to stay in and watch "Monday Night Football" or "The Voice" or whatever.

Tuesday morning still looks a little dicey if you're driving to work or school.  Overnight, freezing rain will transition to sleet then snow in most places. A little snow atop ice is never a good thing, so be careful!  All of Vermont and pretty much all of New England is under a winter weather advisory for this icky weather.

We Vermonters catch another break of sorts Wednesday and Thursday.  There will be little if any precipitation. Temperatures will remain colder than normal, but not nearly as far below normal as it's been lately. At least no more record lows are anticipated this week. We'll take what we can get.

The next weather maker is coming along Friday.  It looks like it might be a rain to snow situation, but precipitation won't be super heavy, as it seems now. Stay tuned for updates on that one.

AUSTRALIA HAIL

Large parts of Australia, including a good chunk of Queensland in the east, have been battling wildfires in recent weeks.

Hail damage after a big weekend hail storm in Queensland, Australia

Parts of Queensland got a decidedly suboptimal way to fight those fires over the weekend. Mother Nature decided to throw giant balls of ice at the flames.

Yep, Queensland got nailed by hail.  Big time.  The hail in some areas was the size of baseballs or even softballs. A large supercell thunderstorm was to blame.

The hail caused major damage to countless cars and windows in the area. The relatively brief storm managed to cost at least $40 million in damage, according to Australia's ABC News.

Here are some videos:

This car took a bit of a pounding, didn't it?



Few things are as noisy as big hail in a parking lot.  This is at some place called Aussie World. You can see the car windows getting smashed out during the video:



Some cool slo-mo of somebody releasing a lot of hail from fruit-catching nets in an orchard:

Record Winter Weather Persisting In Vermont; Wintry Week Ahead, Too

As can be seen with this map (click on it to make it bigger and easier to
see) ice accumulations with the upcoming storm look like they
will be around a tenth of an inch. That's not enough to bring down
trees and power lines, but more than enough to make road
conditions dangerous. Map is from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington, Vermont. 

It seems like winter has gone on forever already, even though it's only mid-November and our early siege of mid-winter type weather has only gone on for about a week to ten days.

As expected, the cold intensified overnight, with low temperatures tying and setting records, and falling to levels that would be considered chiller than normal for mid-January.

Quite a few places across Vermont managed to get below zero last night, which really is something for this time of year. Island Pond bottomed out at a remarkable 11 below, and Averill was close at 9 below.

In the tropical part of Vermont, Burlington tied its record low for the date at 7 degrees above zero. St. Johnsbury had a record low of 1 below.

Temperatures are moderating under sunshine as we get into Sunday afternoon, but it's still a lot colder than normal.  As mentioned yesterday, we are also in for much more ugly winter weather to come.

We are still due for freezing rain, sleet and finishing off with snow Monday afternoon, night and Tuesday. As is always the case with these situations, some places might be marginal between the rain and ice line, but count on slippery roads and sidewalks starting by Monday afternoon at the latest.

The drive home Monday evening will be lousy, and so will the trip into work Tuesday morning. The precipitation is not going to be especially heavy, but a little bit of ice goes a long way toward making life miserable.

It's also unclear at what pace Monday night and Tuesday morning we'll transition from freezing rain to sleet to snow, but I guess most places in Vermont can expect at least one to three inches of snow and ice, with locally higher amounts.

Unsettled weather will continue pretty much all of this coming week, with rain and snow showers around.  It will stay about ten degrees colder than normal during the week, but I suppose that's better than the 20 to 30 degree below normal air we've had over the past couple of days

It's hard to say whether this frigid November is a harbinger of an exceptionally rough upcoming winter in Vermont.

This is ancedontal, but a November and awful lot like the current one came in 1967.   If the rest of this winter follows like it did in December, 1967 through early 1968, the news isn't good.  December, 1967 was slightly colder than normal. January, 1968 was brutal. That month set a record for the most consecutive hours of subzero weather in Burlington, though that record was broken in February, 1979.

January, 1968 was the fifth coldest on record. February, 1968 was much colder than normal, too. Mild air did not return that winter until late March.  So yeah, I'm hoping history doesn't repeat itself in this case.

Bitter Cold. Next Up: Freezing Rain In Vermont. Oh, Joy!

Bad road conditions in Burlington, Vermont last winter. Expect more
of the same as winter's early arrival keeps punishing us.

I'm more than a little jealous of people in north central and parts of the Northeast Kingdom.

Last evening, as those well-predicted snow squalls lumbered through, there were lightning strikes up in that area.

Thundersnow! I haven't seen that in a few years, so I missed out. Where I'm at in St. Albans, there were some snow showers, but nothing spectacular.  So congratulations to those who got thundersnow.  You get the Jim Cantore thundersnow excitement award.

Now, as expected, its ridiculously cold out there. Most of us were in the single numbers to low teens at dawn broke this morning. A couple subzero readings showed up.  As of 6 a.m., it was minus 2 at Gallup Mills, Vermont in the Northeast Kingdom and early this morning it was a remarkable 8 below at the tradtional cold spot of Saranac Lake, New York. 

We will have record cold high temperatures today, as temperatures only peak between 15 and 22 degrees. It should be in the low to mid 40s this time of year. More record low temperatures are due tonight, with lows regional wide from about minus 5 to plus 10.

Think this winter misery for so early in the season is over after that? Think again. I hope you like freezing rain and ice, because that seems like it's coming our way Monday into Tuesday.

Now, this won't be the type of 1998 ice storm that brings down all the trees and powerlines. Not by a long shot. There will only be a light accumulation of ice. Enough to make the roads, sidewalks and such a slick nightmare.

There's still a lot of question marks as to how much ice will come, exactly when it will come and how much sleet or snow might mix in.  On Monday afternoon, temperatures in many areas will probably sneak a couple degrees above freezing.

But it's been so cold that the ground is frigid, so rain will freeze when it hits. This is normally a problem later in the winter, not in November. But this is a bizarre month. Has been from Day 1.

The Monday evening commute and Tuesday morning trip to work will both be tricky.  Again, there won't be a lot of precipitation, but it will be the wrong kind.  At this point, it looks like the mix will change to snow Tuesday morning, but there won't be a huge accumulation.

This icy start to the week will come from an offshore nor'easter.  It will be pretty far out to sea, which explains why the precipitation won't be especially heavy in Vermont. But the weather pattern will pull moisture inland from the storm, which means we will get some icy ick coming from the sky.

This same nor'easter will cause gusty winds, coastal flooding and a lot of beach erosion in the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic states.

The next storm comes Friday. It's too soon to give you details. Early hints are it will be a rain to snow situation, but there's plenty of time yet to figure that one out.

Winter To Slap Vermont Hard Again. Watch It On Roads This Afternoon/Eve

Too early in the season for dealing with this.  Snow slides off my
roof in St Albans, Vermont during today's minor thaw. The sliding
snow tries to block the front door. Another harsh cold wave
is starting this evening and continues through Saturday night. 

This isn't saying much, but today is the warmest day in Vermont since Sunday.  True, it's still chillier than normal and Sunday was cooler than normal, too. But I suppose we have to take what we can get.

This "heat wave" won't last. We have at most a few hours of it, then it's back to hard core winter. That re-introduction to the cold later today will be accompanied by the risk of danger on the roads later this afternoon and evening.

Another Arctic cold front is on our doorstep.  Temperatures ahead of this front are mostly above freezing. Snow and possibly rain showers will develop as the front presses in from the northwest.  This, and the minor snow melt we're getting earlier in the day, will make the roads wet.

Then, as the Arctic cold front comes through, many of us will have some briefly heavy snow squalls, and all of us will see rapidly falling temperatures when the front passes.

This will result in a flash freeze, where wet roads instantly ice over. The snow squalls will create periods of zero visibility in spots, and the snowfall will turn the ice on the roads very slippery.

The snow showers and snow squalls won't last long in any one place. Almost everyone will get an 1.5 inches of new snor or less. But that's enought to make things wild and dangerous on the roads during and immediately after the squalls.  The worst of it will be in the northern half of Vermont.

The timing of this is lousy, heading from northern New York at mid afternoon, then going northwest to southeast across Vermont in the late afternoon and evening. Just in time for the evening commute.

Expect the National Weather Service to issue snow squall warnings in areas of northern Vermont and New York later today. These warnings are much like severe thunderstorm warnings in the summer.  Each one will cover only one or a few counties and reference dangerous weather lasting for only an hour or two in a given area.

Some places will get it worse than others.  Some places won't even get snow squalls. But the risk of a mess is such that, if you can, get home before the snow squalls arrive.  If you're still at work or whatever when the snow showers and squalls hit, just hang out where you are until an hour or two after they pass by.

The roads will still be icy in spots, but at least the visibility will have improved and the road crews will have begun to clean things up.

Temperatures will crash right after the front and go right back down to record low levels tonight through Saturday night. This cold snap will be even stronger than the one we just had.  Lows tonight will be in the single numbers and only go into the teens to around 20 for a "high" Saturday

Lows Saturday night will also be in record territory, with temperatures of between minus 5 and plus 5 for most of us. That's just incredibly cold for mid-November and something that's not in the record books.

Winter isn't going anywhere, either. Tempertures will warm up next week, but still stay generally cooler than normal for this time of year. (Forecast highs are in the 30s to around 40, with lows in the 20s).

The exact track of upcoming storms and fronts starting Monday and through next week are uncertain, but we have good chances most days next week of a variety of winter precipitation. Ugh.

Waterlogged Venice, Italy Assessing After Near-Record Flooding

A lone person wades through the flooding in Venice, Italy this week.
It was the second highest flood crest on record. Credit: Getty Images

UPDATE:

In the "You Can't Make This Stuff Up department, the Venato Regional Council sort of a county or state government for Venice and environs, got flooded out literally moments after voting against spending money to combat climate change, CNN tells us.

Of course, as I describe below, climate change was only one of many ingredients that caused this massive flood in and around Venice.

But the irony of this story is certainly there.

Says CNN:

"The council chamber in Ferro Fini Palace started to take in water around 10 p.m. local time, as councilors were debating the 2020 regional budget, Democratic Party councilor Andrea Zazoni said in a long Facebook post.

'Ironically, the chamber was flooded two minutes after the majority League Brothers of Italy, and Forza Italia parties rejected our amendments to tackle climate change,' Zazoni, who is deputy chairman of the environment committee said in the post."

The League Brothers party is aligned with the Italian government's far right leadership. The head of the League Brothers for the Venato Regional Council rejected Zazoni's assertions saying the council has spent money on anti-pollution efforts.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

As anybody with a hint of awareness about Italy knows, the historic city of Venice is wet and prone to flooding.

Many of us have seen photos over the years of tourists standing knee deep in water or picking their way over makeshift platforms above flood waters.  The city has some flooding at least a couple dozen times a year.

This week's Venice flooding went way beyond that.  You can see video at the bottom of this post.

About 85 percent of Venice was flooded, the worst inundation since the famous storm of 1966, according to the Weather Channel.

The water reached 6.14 feet above normal, just 2.5 inches lower than the historic 1966 flood, the Associated Press reports.

There are fears that St. Mark's Basilica could be damaged, as water flowed through windows and into the crypt beneath, says the Weather Channel.  That might be compromised the historic building's structure, such as the columns that hold St. Mark's up.  The building is made largely of marble, which corrodes easily in salt water.

St. Marks has flooded just six times in its nearly 1,000 year history, but two of those times were in the past two years, says CBS News.

The Associated Press also said the Ca'Pesaro modern art gallery was damaged because water created an electrical short circuit, which started a fire.

Those platforms tourists walked on during high water were taken down because the inundation was so bad those platforms could have washed away.  Shopkeepers traditionally put boards in front of doors to keep water out, but this time the water overtopped those boards, flooding countless businesses and homes.

On the bright side, the AP said that priceless artworks in Venice were unscathed.

"These are the effects of climate change," Venice Mayor Luigi Brugnaro said on Twitter as he surveyed the damage, which he said amounted to hundreds of millions of euros.

He's probably only partly right about climate change.  It could well have influenced this week's flooding, but it's not the only player.

Plenty of things came together to create the destructive Venice flooding.  A full moon made ocean tides higher worldwide.  Strong southerly winds pushed the high tide into Venice. Plus, the city is slowly sinking because of ground water pumping.

And, yes, climate change contributed because sea levels are rising due to the warming. That made the water a little higher than it otherwise would have been.

Venice has been building multi-billion dollar flood barriers for more than a decade, but the project has been plagued by delays, cost overruns and corruption.

Video of the flood from The Guardian:



More footage from the BBC. Note the water flowing into shops and hotels:

Brutal Vermont Cold Update; Australian Wildfires

Record early season cold has engulfed Vermont and most of the
eastern United States. Burlington, Vermont this morning also set a
record for the coldest for so early in the season.

Like we expected, it's brutally cold for this time of year here in Vermont, and across much of the eastern United States.  Record lows are falling like crazy in the Green Montain State and elsewhere.

As of 7 a.m., it was 9 degrees in Burlington, Vermont.This is a record low for the date, beating the previous low of 15 degrees. It is also the coldest for so early in the season.

Before midnight Tuesday in Burlington, it got to 14 degrees, which managed to break the record for the date of 15 degrees, set in 1933.

It looks like there's a good chance we'll have three consecutive days of record low temperatures, as Thursday morning might set another record.

Also, the high temperature in Burlington Tuesday was just 26 degrees, which was a record for the lowest high temperature on that date.  Today, if you consider the low temperature and the expected high temperature, would be colder than normal for January

Burlington's string of record lows this week is especially remarkable because the city has such a long period of record.  They started keeping track of Burlington's daily weather in the 1880s.  The longer period of record you have, the less chance you'll see record highs or lows. That's because it's likely most days have seen something close to their highest or lowest possible temperatures.

This is also the second November in a row with a remarkable cold record in Burlington. Last November, the city experienced its earliest subzero reading on record.

Most of Vermont and northern New York before dawn were in the single numbers. Rutland was pretty remarkable at just 6 above zero.  Wind chills were mostly in the single digits below zero this morning.

Several other cities, like Burlington, broke records just before and just after midnight. They include Dayton, Ohio, South Bend, Indiana and Memphis, Tennessee, so you know the cold is widespread.

I expect all in all, a few hundred record lows will be broken by the time this cold wave ends towards Sunday or so.

AUSTRALIAN WILDFIRES

It's quite the opposite problem in Australia, and a much worse one at that.

Peter Parks AFP/Getty

We can survive shivering in the cold, and all most of us suffer from is increased heating bills. (Although I have to acknowledge this early season cold is very dangerous and potentially deadly for vulnerable populations, like some elderly people and of course the homeless.)

In any event, the Australian wildfires are extreme, even by their standards. Worse, this is hitting just at the beginning of their wildfire season, so it will be a long few months Down Under.

In the province of New South Wales, at least 200 homes have burned and three people have died, reports the BBC. 

The weather will continue to be dangerous and make Australia prone to more wildfires through the rest of the week.

Storm Was Close To Forecast In Vermont; Now The Cold

The first half of autumn in Vermont was spectacularly gorgeous, and
at the time I warned that no good weather in Vermont goes unpunished.
Sure enough, late autumn payback: Record cold, a lot of snow
in the way and storm damage tree debris from Nov. 1 still to be removed
from my St. Albans, Vermont yard. 

I'm finally getting around to posting today's storm update, much later than usual. I slept in, then shoveled most of the driveway, and I'm feeling under the weather. That's my excuse anyway.

It's mid-afternoon Tuesday and the winter storm is just about over, except for some valley flurries and mountain snow showers.

The storm, tricky to forecast, played out close to expectations here in Vermont.  The only major differences were that mixed precipitation crept a bit further north than expected,  reaching as far as Burlington and St. Johnsbury.

There was up to a foot of snow in northern New York, and six to 10 inches in northwestern Vermont. That was just a little under what was expected.  I had about eight inches at my place in St. Albans. I was expecting about a foot. It looks like the storm total at the National Weather Service in South Burlington will come in at a respectable 7.1 inches.

Where mixed precipitation fell, amounts dropped sharply, especially in low elevations from just south of Burlington and south of the central Green Mountains.  It looks like three to six inches of snow and ick accumulated in central Vermont, with less than three inches in most of southern Vermont.

In case you haven't noticed, it's damn cold out there for this time of year, and that state of affairs is still expected to last through Thursday.  After a few hours reprieve early Friday, we get another blast of Arctic air Friday night through Saturday night before things begin to recover.

This is part of that Arctic blast that's been all over the news, hitting most of the nation east of the Rockies.  There will be dozens upon dozens of record lows with this cold snap - there already have been quite a few.  Vermont will share in these record lows.

At night - tonight and tomorrow night - how cold it actually gets depends upon cloud cover. If skies clear over areas that have a good bit of snow on the ground, records will be broken by wide margins. I wouldn't be at all surprised if a few cold spots get below zero.  There will probably be a lot of lows in the single digits.

If skies stay cloudy, it'll be a little "warmer" but still in record territory. . The warm water of Lake Champlain will have sort of a tea kettle effect, creating steamy clouds in the Champlain Valley. That just might hold temperatures up in the teens, which could still threaten records.

High temperatures today, tomorrow and Saturday will also challenge marks for record low high temperatures.

It's still looking like temperatures will moderate to more or less normal levels starting next Monday and possibly continuing all week. We'll see.

Monday Vermont Evening Storm Update: High Impacts, Tricky Forecast

Well, that promised November winter storm has arrived in Vermont, at least for most of us as of 6 p.m. Monday night.

Light, but steady snow was falling across northern and central sections, and the roads were definitely bad on the commute home.

I avoided getting hit by the SUV sliding uncontrollably down one Burlington hill, and narrowly missed getting hit by some idiot who was fishtailing because the moron was upset the motorist in front of him was "only" going 25 mph in a 25 mph zone in a snowstorm.

The forecast for the rest of the storm is still on track here in Vermont, but there's still a high bust potential in some parts of the state.

The general outline is the same as I described this morning. The northwestern corner of Vermont and northern New York for that matter appears to be in for a LOT of snow.  The further south and east you go, the more mix of precipitation you get. Plus, the intensity of the precipitation is more iffy south and east than it is north and west.

The trick is, where will this borderline between heavy snow and a mix set up? A variance of just a degree or two in the atmosphere above us could really mess up the forecast. If a little more warm air aloft comes north than expected, some northern parts of Vermont would get less snow than forecast.

If the cold air wins out more, more snow could fall in central and perhaps southern Vermont than anticipated.

Whatever happens, the effects on you and me will be basically the same. Either the ice or the snow will mess up the Tuesday morning commute. In addition, in many areas, the mixed precipitation will change to a burst of relatively heavy snow in many locations around here at the time of the morning commute. It will be lousy.

The best guess from the National Weather Service in South Burlington is that far northwestern Vermont (Grand Isle and Franklin counties) and northern New York are in for about a foot of snow, since there will be little or no sleet in these areas.  A winter storm warning remains in effect for the northwestern third of Vermont and most of northern New York.

The big bust potential is roughly a 30 or 40-mile wide line centered between Rutland and St. Johnsbury.  There, extra mixed precipitation might cut down on accumulations or extra snow might boost it.  Almost all of Vermont south and east of the winter storm warning is under a winter weather advisory is up.

Because of the mix and lighter precipitation, southern Vermont could get as little as an inch or two of snow and ice accumulation

Whatever happens, the snow will end west to east across the region during the day, leaving us in the upcoming well-advertised record cold air mass.

Records To Fall Amid Big Vermont Winter Storm, Arctic Cold Snap

Around a foot of snow could fall with this storm in the northern
Champlain Valley and northeastern New York. Lesser amounts
are due in southern Vermont, but sleet and freezing rain
will be an additional problem down there.

It was already snowing in parts of northern Vermont early this morning, the first small salvo in what will be a major winter storm later today into Tuesday.

I'm not just calling the upcoming storm major because it involves a lot of snow and some ice for this early in the season.  This will be, at least in some places, one of the bigger winter storms of the 2019-20 winter.

After the storm, we'll get into record cold weather, and some of the readings will probably be the coldest for so early in the season.

Let's get into the storm first.

The heaviest snow will come down in the northwestern third of Vermont, including the Champlain Valley.  Which is different than many winter storms, when areas outside the Champlain Valley get the most snow.

Northern New York will be in the heavy snow band, too. In these areas with the heaviest snow, 6 to 14 inches of accumulation is forecast by midday Tuesday.  A foot of snow really is a lot for this time of year.  These forecasts also call for deeper accumulations than predictions for this storm issued on Sunday.

By the way, Burlington has a shot of having one of its ten snowiest Novembers because of this storm. Number 10 on the list had 14.9 inches.  Burlington has already had 2.6 inches of snow this month, and the forecast calls for another 11 inches or so.  Plus, you figure it will snow again later in the month.

After sputtering light snows this morning, the snow will pick up in intensity this afternoon and especially overnight.  There will be periods when snow comes down at a rate of one or two inches per hour, which is a biggie.



You can always tell when it's going to snow by looking at
windshield wipers. Wipers were up off windshields in this
Burlington, Vermont workplace parking lot this morning in
anticipation of snow later today

South and east of a line very roughly between Middlebury and St. Johnsbury, the National Weather Service in South Burlington says there will be mixed precipitation overnight, changing to snow late tonight or Tuesday morning. 

There might be some accumulation of ice on trees and power lines in southern Vermont with this, but I think tree and power line damage will be on the light side. Still, there is the risk of some power outages down there.

After that epic storm on Halloween that cut power to 50,000 Vermont homes and businesses, I'm sure people are thrilled with this news.

The onset of precipitation in the south will be later than in the north, which will also cut down on the expected accumulations. Also, precipitation will probably not be as heavy as in the north.

The drive home this Monday evening will be tricky, and then just awful Tuesday morning. I anticipate a lot of school closures and delays. If you can work from home tomorrow instead of driving into work, that will be ideal.

It's not just us getting the winter storm, of course. Winter storm warnings extend from northeastern Ohio to northern Maine. Winter weather advisories extend much further west in a band extending from the Northeast all the way out to Nebraska and Colorado.

In Canada, Montreal is expecting a good eight inches of snow, and parts of southern Ontario are bracing for potentially their biggest mid-November storm on record.

Even more impressive than this winter storm is the cold that will follow.  One of the strongest mid-November cold waves in history is set to hit the eastern half of the United States, except Florida.

There will be lots of record lows with this, including here in Vermont.

The record low in Burlington Wednesday is 15 degrees and the record low on Thursday is 10 degrees.  Readings are forecast to get at least that cold this week.  Highs Wednesday will only be in the upper teens to around 20, which is actually colder than normal for the depths of winter in January.

The cold will stick around for awhile, as I've been noting   There will be a brief moderation Friday but that will be cut off by a fresh Arctic blast Friday night and Saturday.

Next week, the weather pattern does not look like it will be as extreme as this week. That means it still might be a little chilly next week, but not ridiculous like it will be over the next few days.