Rinse And Repeat: Storms Again, Mostly South, More Tropical Trouble

A little humid air and a little light rain help add a bit of color
to my St. Albans, Vermont yard. 

It seems like the Burlington-area anti rain force field broke down a little bit this morning, as I've noticed a fairly nice downpour passed through the Queen Cith this morning.

Up here in St. Albans, it did rain a little, so I'll take it.

Meanwhile, the tropics are bubbling with activity.  I'll get into that in a bit, but before that, let's get into the local stuff first.

VERMONT RAIN PROSPECTS/WARMTH

It would be nice if it rained more, but I think northern Vermont is mostly done with the rain today, save for a scattering of showers and storms - the  hit and miss kind - this afternoon.

Like yesterday the real action in the thunderstorm department will be south. Though this time, more of Vermont looks to be involved.

Central and southern New England, including southern and eastern Vermont and southern New Hampshire, are in the NOAA' Storm Prediction Center's slight risk zone for severe thunderstorms today.

That's the second of five alert levels and means there is the possibility of scattered severe storms, but nothing widespread.

The rest of Vermont, and most of  the rest of northern New England is in a marginal risk zone, which means there might be an isolated severe storm here and there.

Basically, the clouds and rain in northern Vermont and New York stabilized the atmosphere, making it harder, but not impossible, for afternoon showers and storms to develop.  Central and southern Vermont didn't get into this morning's rain. There will be a little more sun there this morning, which could help encourage afternoon storms

After today's storms go by, there's no precipitation in the offing until at least later Sunday. We have another toasty weekend ahead, with daytime highs in the 80s, with maybe a spot 90 here and there.

The following is still a bit uncertain, but we have a shot - just a chance - early next week of having the coolest spell of weather since mid-June.  If this comes to pass, it won't be chilly by any means, but there might be a few days in there that don't even make it to 80 degrees in the afternoon, and Champlain Valley nighttime temperatures could go below 60 degrees.

In other words, we have a round of average summer weather coming up for a change.

This coolish spell is likely to end prospects for Burlington to have its longest stretch of consecutive days that stayed above 60 degrees, but we will probably have the second longest such stretch.

According to the National Weather Service in South Burlington, the longest stretch of continous above 60 days was 37 in 1898.  The second longest stretch was 30 days in 1988.

As of yesterday, we're up to 27 days, and it most likely won't go below 60 through Sunday

TROPICS: GONZALO, WANNABE HANNA AND DOUGLAS

Tropical Storm Gonzalo, as expected, got going way out in the Atlantic yesterday, but its future is highly questionable.

As of now, the National Hurricane Center expects to become a hurricane for awhile, then maybe weaken as it enters the Caribbean Sea.

However, as noted yesterday, Gonzalo is a tiny little thing. It doesn't take much to disrupt a small storm.

Several meteorologists noticed this morning that an intrusion of dry air had disrupted Gonzalo's circulation early this morning.  That might hinder any intensification. We shall see.

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico I dismissed yesterday as a nothingburger now seems poised to become a tropical storm. If it does do that, they'll name it Hanna.

If Hanna forms as expected, it will be the earliest eight storm of the season on record.  The old record for earliest "H" storm was on August 3, 2005.

Meanwhile, we have a sleeper in the form of Hurricane Douglas. I call it a sleeper because it hasn't been really getting a lot of attention.

But it should.

Douglas is way out in the Pacific Ocean heading west away from distant Mexico.  Top winds this morning were 120 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The problem is, it's heading toward Hawaii.  Douglas will weaken over cooler waters as it approaches Hawaii, but it will still be a low end hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time it gets there.

Hawaii seems to have gotten more prone to tropical storms in recent years and decades.   Due to natural ocean currents, the water is coolish around Hawaii, which tends to kill hurricanes. Such storms thrive on hot water.

However, the oceans around Hawaii aren't as cold as they used to be, in large part due to climate change.  Which means if all other things being equal, hurricanes and tropical storms near Hawaii don't tend to weaken as fast ast they used to.

Back in the Atlantic, yes, it's been a very busy start to the hurricane season, but the power of the storms have been overwhelming.

But this hurricane/tropical storm season isn't nearly as dramatic and active as the first part of the notorious 2005 season (which eventually brought us such disasters as Katrina and Rita).

There's a measure of how active a hurricane season is something called Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE.  It's a measure of how intense a particular hurricane season is based on the intensity and longevity of each tropical storm or hurricane.

Though we have a record number of storms this year, they've all been rather weak and short lived. According to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist and expert on Atlantic hurricanes.

The ACE number so far in the Atlantic Ocean is eight as of yesterday. Normal for this time of year is seven, so it's close.  In the notorious 2005 season, ACE was already up to 56.

Even if Gonzalo turns into a dud and Hanna turns out to be a weakling, the ACE count will probably increase to a little above average in the next few days.