Matt's Weather Rapport is written by Vermont-based journalist and weather reporter Matt Sutkoski. This blog has a nationwide and worldwide focus, with particular interest in Vermont and the Northeast. Look to Matt's Weather Rapport for expert analysis of weather events, news, the latest on climate change science, fun stuff, and wild photos and videos of big weather events. Also check for my frequent quick weather updates on Twitter, @mattalltradesb
"The Wrath Of Fay" Skies over St. Albans, Vermont around 6:30 this morning as the center of what was Fay was probably entering southwest Vermont. As you can tell, the storm was a bust for Vermont. By the way wind gusts at the time this photo was taken were "roaring" in the um, 10-15 mph range.
As you can tell by going outside, Tropical Storm Fay was a bust in Vermont, dropping only a little rain and not the nice soaking downpours we'd hoped for.
Fay's main rain band went further west than expected, into central New York, and weakened even more rapidly than originally thought as it trekked up New York's Hudson River Valley. Dry air also got sucked into the system from the west, cutting down on the rainfall.
By the time it reached Albany, Fay was just a diffuse remnant low, spewing out a few lame northbound showers in Vermont.
This band of rain at least is affecting pretty much all of Vermont with briefly moderate rains in some spots. It won't be huge, but we'll take any raindrop we can get at this point. .
On with the drought, I guess.
Sure, there are more rain chances, but we're back to the routine we've since May: Just hoping random showers might hit your own garden. At least we won't go days on end without at least getting some risk of rain, so there's that. And it's a little cooler.
Yesterday in Burlington was the fifth day this year of 95 degree or warmer weather. The record for an entire year is nine. We've also had 12 days of 90 degree or hotter weather. We're still quite a ways from the record of 26 in a single year, which is good.
It also looks like more 90 degree weather is unlikely for several days at least. We'll deal with lot of warmth and humidity and that sort of ickiness, but nothing extreme.
There will be severa chances for showers and thunderstorms over the next few days, so I'm thinking almost everyone will get a little rain over the next week or so.
Now that Fay went pffft, we're left with a humid, tropical air mass. That disturbance coming in from the west I've been talking about over the past couple of days is still moving into the picture today, so more showers and scattered thunderstorms will blossom this afternoon and evening.
A few lucky people will get some good downpours with these today. A very few unlucky people are at risk for a severe storm. A couple of them could produce microbursts, which would bring local damaging winds.
More of the same is due all week, though some days will be drier than others. Some days will have a pretty good chance of showers and storms, other days, not so much. It all depends on the timing of these little summertime weather disturbances coming at us in this generally warm, humid west to southwest air flow over us.
Several towns in and around New Jersey reported flooding problems. Gusty coastal winds brought down some trees and power lines. This was certainly no mega disaster, but it was an inconvenience.
A thunderstorm looms over an Addison County,
Vermont farm house in 2013
It's one of those lazy days of summer in which I don't feel like doing much, or thinking about anything.
Since there's a chance of scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, I'm just going to throw up a few of my favorite Vermont thunderstorm photos in recent years.
We tend not to get those super dramatic storms like in the Great Plains and Midwest, but Vermont summer storms are impressive, but maybe in a more subdued, artistic fashion
Today's storms are unlikely to be severe, but they might be on the strong side in a couple places. They might even approach severe limits east of the Green Mountains, but those would be very few and far between.
If these storms develop, and it it IS an if, I hope they'll at least be photogenic, like past storms I've seen.
Very likely you've seen them before, but they're worth another look. Click on each image to make them bigger and easier to see.
I'll even throw in a video at the bottom of this post.
So here we go:
A distant thunderstorm at sunset a few years ago.
Thie photo was taken in St. Albans, Vermont.
The storm was in northern Addison County,
Vermont, so quite a ways away.
A menacing shelf cloud over St. Albans Bay, Vermont, July 2013.
Chaotic skies over St. Albans, Vermont May, 2014
Starksboro, Vermont, June 2015
Developing thunderstorm looking west from St. Albans, Vermont
July, 2016
A thunderhead north of St. Albans, Vermont creates a profile
portrait, July, 2019
Developing thunderstorm at sunset, June 2020
Now a video: One of the most intense, favorite thunderstorms I've experienced, July 4, 2012. I feel bad for the dude on the bicycle 18-19 seconds in:
So close and yet so far. A thunderstorm juuusst missed my
parched gardens in St. Albans, Vermont last evening, leaving
me literally in the dust. Photo taken while I was watering
said garden as I watched the storm depart toward the east.
The heat goes on in Vermont, at least for one more day today as records fall due to the persistent heat wave.
The temperature reached 96 degrees in Burlington Monday, exceeding the old record of 92 set in 1921. It was the fifth consecutive day of 90+ heat, making it the longest such stretch on record for the month of June.
That record just got extended.
It was 90 degrees at noon in Burlington. That's six days in a row at 90 or above. That ties the record for the second longest heat wave on record in Burlington.
Today's 90 also means we tie with 1949 the record for the most 90 degree days in the month of June - which is seven.
Today's record high in Burlington is 93 degrees. We have a good shot of reaching that, too. If it gets to 94 degrees today, we will be in a four way tie for the most consecutive days of 94 degree weather in Burlington, says WPTZ-TV meteorologist Ben Frechette. That would be four consecutive days of such weather.
Atop Mount Mansfield, the high temperature yesterday was 83 degrees, shattering the old record of 75 degrees set in 1998.
A remarkable record has been set on Lake Champlain. The water temperature, as measured roughly seven feet below the surface was 79 degrees this morning, which is the hottest the lake water has been since they started keeping track in 1972.
Lake Champlain water temperature, by the way, usually peaks in August.
I'm theorizing a unique set of circumstances created this hot Lake Champlain water. It's been dry, so cool river water has not been flowing in. More importantly, mainly clear skies have been sitting over the lake for days on end right around the Summer Solstice, which offers plenty of time for the sun to heat the water.
A record long heat wave striking right at Summer Solstice also helped. Probably an even more important factor is winds have been light winds for several days now. Strongest wind gusts over the past week have been under 20 mph, except in highly local areas that were near isolated thunderstorms
With a little more wind, clouds and somewhat cooler temperatures on the way, Lake Champlain water temperatures will fall somewhat, but stay unseasonably warm, is my guess.
Some relief is finally on the way, believe it or not, but it won't necessarily get chilly by any means.
As of late morning today, billowing thunderheads are already forming in the mountains. Unlike yesterday, these nascent storms are actually moving, so the percentage of us who will get some rain today will be a wee bit higher today than in the past few. Most of us will still miss out, I think.
Which is too bad. We really, really need the rain. Burlington, for instance, has just had a paltry 0.37 inches of rain this month. They should have accumulated about 2.7 inches during June so far had this month been anywhere near normal.
It was frustrating yesterday here in St. Albans, when a thunderstorm formed near Plattsburgh, dumping a wondrous 1.3 inches of rain on that city. The storm began to move slowly northeastward, right toward me.
But the storm collapsed on the way over, and all I got was a trace of rain and an outflow boundary that brought a brief, cool gust of wind of about 25 mph.
That outflow boundary created a new storm just to my east, which created a nice downpour there. That new storm headed east, away from St. Albans. For me, I was left in the dust, literally.
Although some of us have gotten some welcome rain in isolated storms - I see you @VermonsterWx - most of us have missed out just like me.
At least there's now hope of getting a little rain. If you avoid a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening, that welcome cold front will probably bring some more widespread showers and rumbles of thunder later tonight and Wednesday.
The timing of the front means there won't be a lot of rain, except for a handful of places that get bullseyed by a thunderstorm. But even a little will help. Generally we can expect a half inch of rain or less with this, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.
We have a second chance of some watering this weekend. A warm front and little storm system has the potential to dump some decent rains on us Saturday. Don't hold your breath on this one, though. Currently, it's a big maybe.
Temperatures will fall to near normal for a few days, starting Wednesday afternoon and going into the weekend. (Highs in the 75-82 degree range).
I do see some worrying signs that it could turn hot again as June closes and July begins. That's also a big maybe. It might well be not nearly as bad as the heat wave we just went through. But judging by the weirdness of this weather year, you never know.
A small, isolated storm formed over the Adirondacks around sunset last evening, as seen looking toward the southwest from St. Albans, Vermont.
One of the many things I like about summer is the sky is far more interesting and beautiful than in the winter.
Summer is the time of year when scattered showers and thunderstorms are more likely, without those dreary, boring overcast skies that come in the colder seasons.
Such was the case last evening when isolated thunderstorms erupted over mountainous terrain of northern Vermont and the Adirondacks of New York.
These dramatic looking, but usually harmless and brief thunderstorms often form during these hot, humid days.
There's really no weather systems to create updrafts that would form organized lines of clusters of long lasting storms. But the atmosphere in these conditions is primed for storms, if only there were a trigger.
That trigger is the mountains. The strong June sun helps creates updrafts that also help cause light local breezes. If things line up just right, one of these breezes hits a mountain slope and is forced to rise.
That breeze going up the side of a mountain can be just enough to trigger a storm. That upslope breeze becomes a rapidly rising column of air, which forms almost immediately into a towering thunderstorm, the kind we saw here and there last evening. They go from nothing to immense, often in just minutes
Since these clouds are so tall, they can be seen from very far away. People in the Burlington area saw a gorgeous white tower erupt to the northeast early Friday evening. That storm was near Greensboro, almost 50 miles away as the crow flies.
Beautiful isolated storm last evening in northern Vermont. Photo via Twitter by Charlie of Mystery Springs @SlowWaterMvmnt
Unlike in some hot spells, when haze obscures the best views, the skies Friday were more clear, making the beautiful storms more striking. They were isolated, so looking east, the low angle sun turned the clouds brilliant white, surrounded by a deep blue background.
Some lucky bastard up near Greensboro was probably treated to a brief downpour for their garden, and maybe a lightning strike or two.
These so-called "pulse" storms die pretty much as fast as they form. Remember, there's no real weather system, or cold front, or boundary to continue the updraft.
Once they move beyond that mountain that caused the initial updraft in the first place, the storm collapses. The process from initiation to dissipation can take less than an hour.
I did say these pulse storms are usually harmless. But there is one moment - when they're dying - when they can become momentarily dangerous. The storm collapses, often in a very localized gush of wind and heavy rain.
This collapse could become a very local microburst, in which wind is strong enough to cause damage in a very small area. One end of a street might have fallen trees from this type, while a mile away, there was just a gentle breeze.
Timing out these collapses is hard, and since they're so local and quick, they're often over and done with by the time the National Weather Service can issue a storm warning.
On some occasions, a pulse storm can keep forming in the same location all afternoon and evening, and just not move. In those cases, you can get a small area of dangerous flash flooding while immediate surrounding areas remain dry.
These two hazards only sometimes happen. More often than not, a pulse storm will quickly collapse and die with no danger involved. That's why they're called pulse storms. They quickly form, then quickly fade. It was just a quick pulse.
After we lost the Greensboro storm last evening, a couple others formed in the Adirondacks, contributing to a gorgeous sunset as the orange light lit up the towering clouds to our west and south.
If you missed these beautiful storms last night, not to worry. The weather pattern is kind of stuck in this hot, humid, still and featureless set up. This will favor more scattered, slow moving and brief "pulse" storms today, Sunday and Monday.
They tend to start forming in the early to mid afternoon on these hot days, and fade with the setting sun. The storms tend to avoid large valleys, so we in the dusty Champlain Valley will just be bystanders, begging in vain for just a little rain from these brief showers.
A weak cold front will approach us during the upcoming mid to late week. That will provide enough forcing for more sustained, and somewhat more widespread showers and storms starting perhaps on Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday.
Daffodil blooming in my St. Albans, Vermont this morning. Let's hope this little fella survives temperatures in the low to mid 20s Wednesday night!
As expected tornadoes and severe weather rocked the South yesterday, though thankfully this one wasn't as bad as the outbreak a week earlier.
There were several tornadoes, and reports of one particularly large, strong one in Mississippi.
It appears that tornado mostly went through rural and pretty unpopulated areas, so not too many houses got wrecked this time. And thankfully, so far, no deaths have been reported.
It looks like there will be one more threat of some severe weather in the South, midweek, and then there will be a brief break lasting several days, in which there will be relatively few reports of severe weather and tornadoes. At least that's the way it looks at the moment.
Up here in Vermont, we don't expect anything dramatic like tornadoes, of course. But after an early spring, winter still wants to regain control. Watch out for wind gusts, and then a hard freeze.
We have another system coming in similar to what we've seen a few times this month already: A very dynamic, energetic disturbance will come in from the west and northwest. Like the previous systems, recipitation amounts won't be overwhelming at all. Still, you'll notice the weather on Tuesday.
Out ahead of the storm's strong cold front, gusty south winds will blow Tuesday morning, especiall in the Champlain Valley, where winds could go over 40 mph at times.
Crocuses like these blooming in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens look fragile, but they're pretty tough. We'll see how well they do in a really hard freeze expected Wednesday night.
A band of showers, and maybe some thunderstorms will accompany the cold front, which at this point looks like it will enter western Vermont in the early afternoon and then sweep east.
There might be a few isolated thunderstorms that manage to create damaging wind gusts. In Vermont, if this happens at all, the damaging gusts will be few and far between.
The real story will be the intense cold behind the cold front, at least by April standards. After snow showers dust a few areas Tuesday night, high temperatures Wednesday will stay in the 30s in many northern areas, with a stiff northwest wind. The Champlain Valley and southern Vermont could squeak into the low 40s, but that's a far cry from the mid and upper 50s that are normal for this time of year.
Unfortunately, it looks like we're going to lose some of the early blooms that are out there right now. Temperatures Wednesday night will bottom out between 15 and 25 degrees, with the teens up in the mountains and colder hollows.
Early flowers like daffodils and crocuses are pretty tough, but early varieties that are blooming now might not fare that well in that level of cold. The plants themselves will be fine, but the some of the blooming daffodils and other flowers could wilt and die in those temperatures.
It depends upon how hardy yours are, but the prospect of even losing a few is a bit depressing.
Temperatures will kind of, sort of warm up later in the week and into the weekend, but still remain below normal, unfortunately.
Here in Vermont, several areas reported smaller hail in the storms, mostly pea sized or just marginally bigger. But still, that's impressive for a March thunderstorm.
True to form for New England, not every part of the region had thunderstorms. Western and northern Maine was enduring a winter storm of wet snow and sleet.
Screen grab of lots of lightning activity in New England Sunday evening. Image from lightningmaps.org
The thunderstorms erupted because the strong storm system that was over the Great Lakes Sunday created strong instability. That means temperatures dropped quickly as you went up in elevation, so that allowed air currents to rise into towering clouds that produced thunderstorms.
Additionally, the storm was causing a general lift in the atmosphere anyway, so with all that upward motion in the air, thunderstorms were able to blossom. One key ingredient for thunderstorms is strongly rising air, so there you go.
These were known as elevated storms. There was a thin layer of cool air near the Earth's surface. That's why it was only in the 30s and 40s when the storm rolled through.
But there was a warmer layer above. That warm layer was essentially the base of the storms. Then the air cooled dramatically from that warm layer on upward. That was the instability that helped trigger the thunderstorms.
These storms contrasted with the kinds of thunderstorms we usually get in the summertime, which are commony surface-based, not elevated. Surface based means that the sun has warmed the lowest levels of the atmosphere, where we live. From there rising air currents create thunderstorms without any low level layer of chillier air.
That parent storm system that caused the thunderstorms is still pestering New England today. Here in Vermont, I doubt there will be any thunderstorms, but it will be showery and cool, although this morning will be on the dry side. There migtht be some snow or mixed precipitation way up in the mountains.
As showers and some strong thunderstorms eased over Vermont
Saturday evening, this cloud gave one last attempt at
a good shower. It was over southern Quebec, as seen
from Franklin Counth, Vermont. I call this an incompetent
cloud, bcause it looked confused and not quite sure
what to do.
Before we launch into today's stormy post, I have to reassure you that despite the headline above, the rest of today, Sunday, is shaping up to be a beauty.
The sky is blue, the humidity is low, and there's a nice breeze. That state of affairs will continue for the rest of the day.
The brighter sunshine will warm temperatures up well into the 70s. If you have anything to do outside today - hike, swim, picnic, barbeque, pick blueberries, garden, whatever, get right out there and do it!
There probably will be a few pretty puffy clouds around, a lingering legacy of some cold air aloft that produced some surprisingly vigorous showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.
We usually associate strong thunderstorms with humid, hot weather. That is indeed usually the case. However, in the summer, if there's an unusually intense pool of cold air aloft and high level winds are stronger than usual, you can get some good storms.
The sun is still quite strong in August so the ground heats up fast. This creates updrafts. These updrafts encounter the colder air aloft, which encourages further updrafts. Soon enough, these grow into showers and thunderstorms. These storms can "grab" some higher winds aloft and bring them to the surface.
These "chilly weather storms" are less widespread and less intense than what we can get ahead of a cold front in steamy hot weather, but they can be pretty rambunctious.
Friday, winds gusted to 40 mph in many evening storms. A few storms Saturday probably could be classified as severe. At the Champlain Valley Fairgrounds in Essex Junction, Vermont, a tree was snapped and exhibition stands were lifted and moved by strong thunderstorm winds.
Severe thunderstorm warnings went up in central Vermont and around Addison County as these storms moved through.
These cooler thunderstorms have a greater risk of hail than other warmer storms. Dime-sized hail came down in Essex Junction, and there several other reports of pea-sized hail in Vermont. In Maine Saturday, hailstones became as big as ping pong balls, so that was something. Strong storms hit southern Quebec and New Brunswick, too.
The air aloft is now a bit warmer than yesterday, and a high pressure system is moving in, which encourages sinking air. Sinking air encourages sunshine. Still, with some lingering chill aloft, some updrafts will get around the sinking air, which explains why we'll get a few of those puffy clouds this afternoon. Those clouds will add to the beauty of the photos you might take today.
On Monday, a weak cold front will approach us from Canada. The air ahead of this cold front will be a little warmer, but still not particularly warm and certainly not humid for this time of year.
The front will add some lift to the air, so despite the lack of heat and humidity, one or two storms could become strong again in the afternoon, especially in northern Vermont.
Video: This person in New Brunswick, Canada, made the best of a hail storm Saturday. The stones even served as a chilly snack:
A distant thunderstorm looms over a still, muggy Malletts Bay, Colchester, Vermont Wednesday to close out the the third hottest July o record.
July ended with a bang - literally - across parts of Vermont as another round of thunderstorms ushered out a near-record hot month.
Wednesday's storms weren't as extensive or destructive as those on Tuesday. Still, one strong storm cut power and flooded streets across St. Albans, Vermont. Trees and power lines went down in Bridport.
The storms ushered in a welcome cold front. It's much nicer - and cooler - as we open up August today. but it remains to be seen whether August will be another hot one or not.
In Burlington, Vermont, the mean temperature for July was 74.9 degrees, which was 4.3 degrees hotter than normal. It was also the third hottest July on record, with data going back to the 1880s.
Temperatures in Burlington reached 90 or more on seven days. We normally get about five days per year with 90 degree temperatures, so we're already ahead of the game heading into August. Only two days in July failed to make it to 80 degrees. We usually get many more cool days than that.
The only hotter Julys in the data base are 76.0 degrees just last year and 75.3 degrees in 1921. Interesting, four of the top ten hottest Julys in Burlington have happened since the year 2000.
A thunderstorm approaches Georgia, Vermont Wednesday afternoon, signalling the arrival of cooler air. July was the third hottest on record.
It was a hotter than normal month throughout the rest of Vermont and New England, too. Boston, Massachusetts and Hartford, Connecticut both clocked in with their hottest month on record this year. Not just hottest July, but hottest month.
Also, the only two months in Boston that had a mean low temperature of 70 degrees or higher were August, 2018, yes, last year and July, 2019. Nights are getting warmer, it seems.
For the most part, July was dry up here in Vermont, as thunderstorms were few and far between. But they had some gusto where they did hit. Montpelier was the exception to the dry July. They had 5.62 inches of rain, which is 1.5 inches above normal. Half of that total came in just the last four days of the month.
If you're sick of muggy, hot air, I do have a bit of good news. There's no real sign of another significant spell of sticky weather for at least a week or more.
This "profile" in the sky looks like it's surprised bu something off
to the west. This is a thunderhead that passed north of
St. Albans, Vermont Sunday evening.
Sunday's storms worked out just as expected - hitting most of us with a couple quick dashes of downpours, with only a handful of places getting nailed.
From what I could tell, there was a severe thunderstorm in Stowe around 3:30 p.m., based on reports of trees down there and an impressive radar return at that hour.
There was a report of some tree damage on Colchester Avenue in Burlington a little earlier in the afternoon. For most of the rest of us, no biggie.
Except for some places that really got bullseyed by storms, the rainfall was inadequate, too. It was still fairly dry under the trees around my house in St. Albans, Vermont, despite two or three brief downpours.
And it was frustrating to see one thunderstorm after another go by a few miles north of my house on Sunday while most of them seemed to avoid me. Oh well.
There are chances of showers and storms Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday because of a slow moving cold front. Similar to Sunday, most storms won't be severe, but there might be a couple strong ones mostly over New York Tuesday and mostly east of the Champlain Valley Wednesday, as forecasts look now. The timing and location of these storms could change as forecasts get updated, but that's the way it looks now.
As luck would have it, the timing of the front means they'd fire up pretty well over New York State Tuesday afternoon, wane before getting to my place in northwestern Vermont, then fire up just to my east on Wednesday. I can't catch a break.
At least I didn't have to contend with dense clouds of grasshoppers, like Las Vegas is experiencing
LAS VEGAS "LOCUST" PLAGUE
Grasshoppers swarming in Las Vegas. Photo via television station KSNV.
OK, they're not really locusts, but grasshoppers. But still, things always seem unique in Las Vegas.
National Weather Service offices all over the nation routinely release special weather statements on local weather hazards. The NWS office in South Burlington put out several such statements on Sunday regarding the thunderstorms, for instance.
But this statement the other day from the National Weather Service office in Las Vegas is a new one:
"Outflow winds from earlier storms over Nye County have just entered NW Las Vegas. Wind gusts betweeen 30-40 mph will be likely as these winds move through the valley. Watch for areas of blowing dust and grasshoppers which may limit visibility."
Catch that? Be careful driving through that area of wind because blowing grasshoppers might interfere with visibility.
And you think you had problems?
Grasshoppers normally make an appearance in Las Vegas this time of year as they migrate northward toward the central part of Nevada. But there's an extraordinary number of them this year, due to a wet and cool spring in that region. (Well, wet and cool by Las Vegas standards, anyway.)
They're attracted to light, so they swarm around street lights and all those bright lights of Las Vegas. They're kind of gross looking in such large numbers. But on the bright side, they don't bite or carry diseases.
Here's a CBS News video of the grasshopper invasion
Dark and beautifully patterned clouds Wednesday in a thunderstorm that was approaching South Burlington, Vermont.
The last few days have finally brought us classic Vermont summer weather: To my mind, it's perfect.
This weather features quite a bit of sun, with puffy clouds thrown in. Temperatures are now often reaching the 80s, with some noticeable but not extreme humidity.
And there's finally summer storms thrown into the mix. Towering cumulus and thunderstorms are easily my favorite type of cloud.
The form an endless array of distinct shapes. They're often dramatic. You need your camera with you at all times in a Vermont summer, in case the sky gives you a treat.
One bonus is that although Vermont can does get severe and damaging thunderstorms every summer, we're not as prone to super scary storms as the Midwest and South. Often, we get the beauty and the drama without the destruction.
Plus, the tallest thunderstorm towers can often be seen when they're as many as 100 miles away, if there's no mountains to block your view. Which I think is pretty cool.
Early this Thursday afternoon, for instance, I could see the tops of some distant thunderstorms from my perch in St. Albans. The storms were well into Quebec. How far up north? Radar showed they were about 60 miles north of Montreal when I spotted them. Montreal is 65 miles north of me. So these storms, barely visible through the slightest haze, were roaring 125 miles away from me.
More on those storms in a minute.
Yesterday brought the first significant, dramatic thunderstorms of the season to my neck of the woods in northwestern Vermont, and I couldn't have been more pleased.
Gorgeous but threatening skies as a thunderstorm approached South Burlington Wednesday.
The storms prompted severe thunderstorm warnings in a wide area along the shores of the northern half of Lake Champlain of New York, most of the Champlain Valley of Vermont and on into central Vermont.
Actual reports of severe weather were scant, which is great. Despite the excitement of having a severe thunderstorm warning, that turned out exactly as meteorologists predicted.
Ingredients were there for isolated, but not widespread severe weather. It was a little warmer than forecast yesterday. Burlington reached 86 degrees Wednesday. That was the hottest temperature so far this year, though it was nothing unusual for late June.
Humidity was moderate. The sun, the heat and the modest humidity helped destabilize the atmosphere, allowing for thunderstorms. A weak boundary approached from the St. Lawrence Valley of New York.
It doesn't take much to form thunderstorms this time of year, and there you go. On the other hand, Wednesday's air wasn't super unstable and there were dry layers up there, so that prevented a lot of severe weather.
Storm clouds over South Burlington Wednesday look like a painting. Like all photos in this post, I did no editing or augmentation.
However, there was a long north to south band of thunderstorms with this. Most cells in this band were below severe levels, but a few spots in this band looked like they had the potential to reach severe limits.
You couldn't tell which isolated spot in the path of this band would get a brief period of severe weather, so the National Weather Service had to issue a blanket severe thunderstorm warning for most people in the path of the storms.
All this is to remind you that every time you get a severe thunderstorm warning this summer, take it seriously and get inside. You never know where under that warning the winds and/or hail will get particularly dangerous
The clouds with this band of storms though! They made me very happy. Especially since there wasn't a lot of damage to report.
MORE STORMS AND SUMMER
This afternoon is once again very warm and vaguely humid. That would maybe mean the chance of additional photogenic storms, but you need a trigger, like that weak boundary yesterday.
Updrafts near the mountains could trigger a few isolated showers and storms in the Green Mountains and Adirondacks late this afternoon, but no biggie.
There is a weak weather front in Quebec which is triggering those thunderstorms up there that I mentioned. As of this writing, at 2 p.m. Thursday, there's even a severe thunderstorm warning in northwestern Maine, due to the same weather front. That boundary might come close enough to the Vermont and New York border to set up the chance of isolated storms this evening.
But the sun will be going down by the time that boundary tries to cross the International Border, so potential energy for storms will also be going away. People way up north in Vermont might hear a rumble of thunder and see pretty clouds again this evening, so that's good.
Friday it's more of the same. Just a chance of late day storms.
This post is getting a little long, so I'll postpone a discussion about Saturday and Sunday until tomorrow morning. Let's just say there's a chance both weekend days could grant us some photogenic skies again, if things work out right. It will be unsettled, and possibly stormy so we'll see!
Clouds build over the Adirondacks on a full-on summery day last year, as viewed from South Burlington, Vermont. Summer weather is finally, grudgingly coming into the Green Mountain State as the Summer Solstice also arrives
The Summer Solstice officially arrives just before noon Friday in our neck of the woods. For once, the timing of the solstice and the arrival of summer weather roughly coincide here in Vermont.
We haven't had much truly summer weather yet. We haven't had many days that got into the 80s not a lot of humid days, not a lot of summertime thunderstorms.
But that is beginning to change. Unevenly, but it's happening.
As you might have noticed, the last few days have been seasonably warm and pleasant, at least in northern Vermont. (Southern Vermont has had to contend with occasional showers.)
Today will remind us of typical summer weather, too. It'll be partly sunny, and there is a chance of afternoon thunderstorms. It doesn't look like any storms will be severe, and not all of us will get a storm. It will be the usual warm season scattered stuff as a weak system comes through.
At least part of Thursday will feel slightly humid as a stronger system approaches. A good slug of rain will come through Thursday night, especially in central and southern Vermont. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has Vermont and most of the rest of New England under aslight risk for excessive rain Thursday night. However, if there is any flooding, it will be minor and localized, at least in Vermont.
We will get a brief interruption to full-on summer weather on Friday, solstice day, and Saturday, the first full day of summer. Both days will be a little on the cool side, but nothing odd of this time of year.
Then, back to summer. Sunday looks sunny and warm. Monday might be a bit humid, and we get into the chance of thunderstorms again Monday and especially on Tuesday, at least as it looks now. It is too soon to tell how extensive next week's storms might be, if they happen at all.
Summer has been really reluctant to arrive this year, but all indications look like it is finally here.
If you look closely at this fresh-fallen snow in Mankato, Minnesota
Thursday, you can see brown from Texas dust blown into the storm system
Photo viaTwitter, Mark Tarello @mark_tarello
In some parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, some of the snow that fell with the blizzard that hit the region over the past couple of days had a tan, brown or orange tint to it.
You couldn't use the phrase "pure as the driven snow" in this case.
The storm system was so strong that dust from New Mexico and Texas was drawn up from the south into the cold northern flank of the storm.
The dust mixed with the falling snow to produce the off-color snow. Voila! The Tex-Mex blizzard.
Hmmm. A mix of snow and dirt. I guess you can say it was snirting in Minnesota on Thursday.
Satellite images of the vast storm system showed winds gusting to 70 mph lifting huge clouds of dust in West Texas and propelling it northward.
This storm reminded me of the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s. My late father remembered brown snow in Vermont in the 1930s as dust from the Great Plains came all the way to New England, mixing with the falling snow to give the drifts a brown hue.
The National Weather Service/Twin Cities, Minnesota shared this
satellite image snowing blowind dust Wenesday over Texas that
drifted northward, causing brown snow in Minneota.
My husband Jeff grew up in South Dakota and he says he can remember a time or two when "snirt" fell - leaving a brownish wintry landscape. Still, this event was rare
There were other weird aspects of this storm. There is often thundersnow with this type of Plains storm. The parent system gets so strong that thunderstorms develop in the heavy snow bands.
However, this storm had an incredible amount of lightning, and there were reports of thundersnow with frequent lightning for two days.
The National Weather Service office in Aberdeen, South Dakota urged people to stay indoors there was so much lightning.
Severe thunderstorms are common during strong Plains systems like this one, but the severe weather almost always happen in the warm, moist air to the southeast of the storm's center.
In this case, there weren't that many severe thunderstorms in the warm sector. But very oddly, some severe thunderstorm warnings for large hail and gusts to 60 mph were issued in areas getting snow and sleet. That's very strange. There were some reports of one-inch diamter hail in Minnesota and Wisconsin.
NEXT STORM OMINOUS
Areas in yellow, orange and especially red are at risk of severe thunderstorms
and tornadoes Saturday. Some of the tornadoes might be strong
and long-lasting.
The next big storm system will develop tonight and tomorrow in Texas. This one looks more conventional, for the lack of a better word, than the last one with the "snirt" blizzard in the Plains. But this new storm seems much more dangerous.
As mentioned yesterday, this storm threatens a nasty tornado outbreak in the South over the weekend.
Severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes will spread into theOhio and Tennessee Valleys and the Southeast Sunday. It's Palm Sunday and churches will be busy. I'm no theologian, but I think God would want churches in these areas to have weather radio tuned in during services. God would also want congregations to have a plan to get to a safe area if a tornado warning is issued.
The storm system will reach New England Sunday night and Monday. Here in Vermont, it still looks like the storm could dump an inch or so of rain on us, and melting snow from the mountains will add to the runoff.
I suspect the National Weather Service will issue flood watches for the region that will go into effect Monday.
A still shot from Pecos Hank's new video "A Storm of Beauty"
I'm going to take a break today from discussiong snow and winter cold and highlight a new video by my favorite storm chaser, Pecos Hank. It's his best yet.
In his Texas drawl, he explains in the new video called "A Storm Of Beauty" some of the most breathtaking aspects of big thunderstorms. He explains how and where to view them, and how to photograph them.
For us Vermonters, who don't exactly live in Tornado Alley, Pecos (real name Hank Schyma) highlights some of the wonders of thunderstorms that we occasionally see and enjoy in Vermont, and pretty much anywhere else.
These include shelf clouds, mammatus clouds, and lightning. (Though you should always try to view and photograph lightning from a safe place.)
What I've always loved about the Pecos Hank videos is he avoids the yelling and screaming and dangerous moves that bring the chasers too close or even inside the tornadoes. For Pecos, he pays attention to art.
Pecos Hank, like fellow storm chaserMike Olbinski, appreciates the allure of thunderstorms, which frankly are my favorite kind of weather anyway. Most of the "A Storm Of Beauty" footage is time lapse.
Pecos is especially talented at establishing the foreground scenes in his videos. He outdoes himself with this talent in "A Storm of Beauty."
Below the drama he's capturing in the skies, we have scenes like a well-kept farmhouse, or some old, abandoned trucks, or grain bins, or train tracks, with a train zooming by as lightning flashes overhead.
You can see how Pecos Hank embraces the Great Plains of the United States. He's really a part of that world, and it shows. He is also an accomplished musician, and he feature his music in the video.
One spectacular example of his music in his song and especially video for "Drive Under The Moon." in which he uses some of his storm footage for a haunting and mysterious music video. Also definitely worth the watch. Seems like all his videos - both storm and music - are moody.
"A Storm of Beauty" ranks right up there as easily one of the best storm videos I've ever seen. Every weather geek, or photographer, or people who just love nature should definitely watch.
To be fair to Pecos Hank, I won't display the video in this post. You'll need to click directly on the link below, so he directly gets hits on his video and YouTube channel.
The National Weather Service office in South Burlington, Vermont posted this photo of thunderstorms at dawn today, as viewed from the Burlington International Airport
Well, it's still humid out there for now, but at least a cold front is approaching that will give us some relief from this ickiness, starting tomorrow.
It won't exactly be cold behind the cold front, but humidity levels will go down a bit by tomorrow, especially in northern sections of region, and temperatures will be close to normal for this time of year. It'll still be vaguely humid, especially south, but not like it was yesterday, or is today.
Today, there might be some pretty strong thunderstorms ahead of this front this afternoon and evening.
As of 11 a.m., there was already a collection of decent-sized, but not severe thunderstorms heading toward the New York border from Quebec. A few more scattered storms were in the Connecticut River Valley, heading into New Hampshire.
This won't be a widespread severe outbreak by any means. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has northern New York and the northern third or so of New England in a marginal risk zone for severe storms.
That pretty much means that there will be isolated reports of wind damage from these storms, but not everybody will get blasted. Still, it's best to take non-severe storms seriously, too, because we might end up with quite a bit of dangerous cloud to ground lightning, and local torrential downpours.
We pretty much missed out on the rain yesterday, with just scattered showers and storms around. The next shot, after today, of any of us getting any decent rain comes Friday, when another cold front will approach.
Forecasters are pretty bullish on most of us getting a slug of rain. Nothing excessive, but still helpful. I'll believe it when I see it. We have frequently been "cheated" out of rain this summer, even when the setup for the storminess seemed pretty favorable at first.
Regardless of how much rain Friday's cold front brings us, it will be noticeably less humid over the weekend. Comfortable, actually, with near normal temperatures, which should be in the 70s to around 80 this time of year.
We're getting close to the end of summer, so I think you will see the general humid pattern we've been in for so long start to fade. There will be uncomfortably muggy days heading into September, but you'll notice some fresher days getting into the mix, too.
Amid all the humidity and warmth we've had lately, the sky over northern Vermont often seems to have a tropical look to it.
I hope my fellow Vermonters and others in the area enjoyed their one-day break from the humidity that has smothered us for the better part of a month now.
It certainly was refreshing this morning. Burlington, Vermont had dipped below 60 degrees for the first time since July 20. The humidity dropped yesterday and it's still low.
This week, though, it's back to the steambath. Today won't be all that humid, but it will warm up into the 80s, with even a few spots in the upper 80s today.
Then that Bermuda High will re-assert itself, a dip in the jet stream will form to our west again, and it's rinse and repeat. This week will be much like last week.
Count on plenty of humidity, with stuffy nights and oppressive days. Overnight lows will get down to only into the 60s to around 70 most of the week, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Low to mid 80s isn't really bad, until you factor in the high humidity levels.
We still really, really need the rain, despite some relief from the dry conditions last week. The forecast picture is mixed on that front. The humidity, and the trough of low pressure to our west, will create a decent chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day, especially Wednesday through Friday or Saturday.
It won't be an area-wide soaking, though. These showers and storms will be hit and miss, as usual. Some places will get decent downpours, others will get just sprinkles, if that. As of last Thursday, the U.S. Drought Monitor had all of Vermont in either moderate drought or abnormally dry conditions, so we should hope the downpours are more widespread than the sprinkles.
You usually don't get widespread, soaking rains in the summer anyway. Often, we have to wait until September or October for that sort of thing, unless some sort of tropical storm or hurricane remnants head our way. That's not in the cards for the foreseeable future.
If you have your air conditioner, keep 'em cranking this week. If not, August starts this week. Summer will begin to wane, and soon enough you will be complaining about how chilly it is out there.
Sun sets at the end of a torrid Vermont day yesterday. The large, hazy cloud
to the left and above the sun is the remnant of a thunderstorm that suddenly
developed over the Adirondacks yesterday evening and then just
as quickly dissipated.
UPDATE, 4 PM MONDAY:
So far, record high of 97 degrees today in Burlington, Vermont, exceeding the old record of 96.
As hot and awful as it will remain the rest of the day, attention is turning to thunderstorms.
A weak trough or disturbance is heading our way, and forecasters now think thunderstorms between now and midnight will be a little more widespread than first thought.
Unlike on Saturday, when storms were very reluctant to develop, some good ones have gotten going in western New York and Ontario.
I think some of these will hold together and reach eastern New York and Vermont. Also unlike Saturday, all of the region is at risk for storms.
This will definitely be hit and miss. Many areas will get no storms, or just hear thunder in the distance. Perhaps as many as 50 percent of us will get an actual storm. A very few locations will get strong gusty winds and torrential rains this evening. Keep an eye on the sky and try to stay cool.
Thunderstorms end by midnight or shortly after tonight. Hot again Tuesday and Wednesday, but a bit less humid, so that will be nice.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
Today, as advertised will bring us the peak of the big heat wave that will go on through Thursday. If you don't have air conditioning, bet you didn't sleep well last night in parts of the Champlain Valley.
It is quite a morning around Burlington, Vermont. As of dawn, the lowest overnight temperature had reached 83 degrees. The heat index was 88 degrees at 5 a.m., having slipped below 90 degrees just two hours earlier.
The people at National Weather Service in South Burlington are certainly impressed by these stats. While Senior Forecaster Peter Banacos wrote the discussion in the pre-dawn hours, the temperature was still 85 degrees. He wrote:
"The south wind around 10 mph feels like a misplace trade wind from the tropics, a surreal Vermont weather experience."
I'll say.
If there are no thunderstorms to bring rain-cooled air to the National Weather Service office before midnight tonight (an iffy proposition) Burlington will set the all time record for hottest minimum temperature for any date since they started keeping track of this stuff in the 1880s.
Because we're starting out so warm, we'll have no trouble getting into the mid and upper 90s today. It could still possibly reach 100 degrees.
Burlington on Sunday managed to tie the record high for the date of 96 degrees. I guess that's a mini-bonus, given the predicted high was 97 or 98 degrees. Montpelier on Sunday set a record high for the date at 92 degrees. The summit of Mount Mansfield got to 83, just shy of its all time record high of 84 degrees.
OPPRESSIVE AND AWFUL DETAILS
Today - another bonus! The humidity will decline by a pretty much non-perceptable level. That "decline" in humidity is just background noise for us humans. It's still awfully muggy out there.
However, that the humidity will be that tiny bit lower could help the atmosphere get hotter than yesterday, since "drier" air can help temperatures rise more under sunshine. Also, overall temperatures a few thousand feet overhead might be a couple degrees warmer than Sunday could also encourage temperatures in the Champlain Valley to approach 100 degrees.
Speaking of humidity, dew points in some spots across the North Country were higher than I can ever remember. The dew point is the temperature at which we'd have to go down to in order to create dew or fog.
If the dew point is over 70 degrees, most of us will feel ridiculously uncomfortable. High dew points make hot weather feel even worse. For instance, at 2 p.m. Sunday, the temperature at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, Vermont was 95 degrees, with a dewpoint of 73. That translated to a heat index - what the air felt like to us humans - of 105 degrees.
By the way, Burlington spent nine hours in a row with a heat index of over 100 degrees. I hope you're not wondering why the National Weather Service has issued an excessive heat warning.
In the St. Lawrence Valley of northwest New York, the dewpoint was even more ridiculous. At Massena, New York, the dewpoint at one point Sunday was 81 degrees. That's unusually high for places like the ultra-sultry Gulf Coast, never mind Arctic northern New York. I don't think I've ever seen dewpoints that high that far north.
To make matters all the more worse, an Air Quality Alert is in effect for Vermont today. Pollution from the big cities along the East Coast is streaming north toward us. When it's this hot, the sunshine interacts with pollution to create high ozone levels, which can be dangerous, especially for people with pre-existing health conditions. It's all made even more risky because those people with the health problems are also under stress from the heat.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
As I've mentioned before, it's hard to get thunderstorms going in this type of heat wave, despite the energy all this hot air and humidity add to the atmosphere.
Think of it as being in a pot with its lid on it, heating up on the stove. Gawd knows it feels like that out there, so let's run with this analogy.
The boiling liquid in the water and air inside the lidded pot can't escape. The air outside the pot is of course much cooler than the air inside it. Thunderstorms bubble up when they can access cooler air aloft. But the thick layer of very warm air over us acts as a lid that keeps those thunderstorm clouds from towering up into the atmosphere.
But what if there was a hole in the lid of our boiling pot of soup on the stove? Then steam would rise pretty high above the pot in the kitchen. That would be akin to an updraft finding some cool air aloft and forming a thunderstorm.
During heat waves like this, an updraft caused by say, a mountain, finds a "hole" in the lid of warm air. Then a thunderstorm develops instantaneously and becomes strong fast. That's why isolated thunderstorms develop. They last only as long as the updraft can find the cooler air above, which is not very long in these situations. The updraft moves a few miles down the road, and the thunderstorm quickly collapses into nothing.
We did see exactly that scenario happen near Lyon Mountain, west of Plattsburgh, New York last evening. There could be a isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon in the mountains today, but the chances are low. Just don't be surprised if you do see an intense but very brief boomer somewhere out there today.
This evening and tonight, there's a somewhat better chance of thunderstorms. The remnants of a weak, now pretty much dead cold front will approach. This disturbance might help take the "lid" off our boiling pot of soup, our heat wave.
This will lead to scattered storms overnight, kind of like what happened Saturday night. Not everybody will see a storm after 6 p.m. today, but a few of us who do could face some pretty strong, gusty winds and torrential downpours.
The "cold front" such as it is, will have moved through by tomorrow morning. The temperature will probably "only" hit the low to mid 90s on Tuesday, and the humidity will drop a unnoticeable smidge again.
It won't be until Friday, when a cold front that really means business will end this long, strange Vermont heat wave.
LIKE A WINTER STORM
To me, a heat wave like this is kind of like a winter storm without the icy roads. The advice we get is the same as during a bad snowstorm: Don't overexert yourself outdoors, check on the elderly, stay inside if you can.
Driving to work yesterday, the streets, parks and sidewalks did not look like a normal summer Sunday in Vermont. Usually there's lots of people out walking, jogging, running around the park. Yesterday, nobody was out, it seemed. It was eerily quiet. People were hunkered down, waiting out the heat, just as they do as they wait out the storm in the winter.
HEAT EVOKES MEMORIES
Funny how these rare strong summer heat waves, the kind we get in Vermont only once every few years, evokes strong memories. I guess that happens because anything that's unusual plays with your brain.
Back in the 1970s, there were a few summers in Vermont that featured some big time hot spells, much like the one we're currently experiencing.
This heat wave takes me back to my youth in West Rutland, Vermont. My dad, Red, owned a tavern, called Marble Valley Restaurant, but everybody called it Red's Place. It was the local hangout, where quarry workers, truck drivers, and the barely employed in this decidedly not picture-postcard working class town would go after their shifts ended. They'd all console themselves, or recharge with a few cheap drafts of Schlitz or Shaefer or Utica Club.
Last night, the muggy night air took me back to Red's Place to an evening that was eerily similar. Those summers, I'd go down there to the bar at 10 or 11 on those nights, walking the 15 minutes or so from our house to the bar, working up a sweat in the stuffy air.
The front door of the bar was wide open, in a vain attempt to catch any breeze that would somehow drift down Marble Street and into the bar. Inside, it was even hotter than outside. Overhead, a fan slowly, listlessly spun, having no effect on the heat but slightly stirring the dense clouds of cigarette smoke hanging in the bar like an acrid fog.
Middle aged men, half drunk, very tired, sat hunched over the bar. I wasn't sure if they were weighed down by the heat or life. It was probably both.
I'd stand by the door of Red's Place, trying to catch a breath of fresh air that wasn't to be. Off in the distance, faint flashes of heat lightning played above the mountains. The distant flashes seemed so half-hearted I'd swear they were being worn down by the dense humidity. Beyond Marble Street was the big West Rutland marsh, where frogs croaked their weary disapproval of the heat.
On the jukebox, Patsy Cline sang "She's Got You." The song's melody seemed to somehow transmit that we'd been transported to a lazy, hot Georgia night.
This description sounds negative, but it's a cherished memory, and I thank the current heat wave for bringing it back to me. See? There's a positive side to everything. To give you a taste of this, listen to Patsy Cline sing "She's Got You."
Some thunderstorms today in Vermont could have torrenetial rains,
and might cause local flooding like this storm did last
August in Burlington
After a night that proved increasingly muggy, we've got a classic Vermont summer day coming up today. Not classic as in beautiful, like, say Friday afternoon and Saturday were.
I'm talking oppressively hot, with lots of afternoon showers and thunderstorms around. Forecasters still think some of the storms might be strong to severe, and there is a risk of one or two towns getting a flash flood today.
First, the heat. Temperatures won't be too extraordinary, but hot enough. The humidity is what's going to make today nasty. There is a heat advisory up for the Champlain Valley and southeastern Vermont. Afternoon readings before the storms will get up to near 90 degrees, but the humidity will make it fell like it's in the upper 90s.
Today is not the day you want to move that big rock pile or run a marathon. Save it for another day, bub.
There is a cold front coming in from the northwest, which means this heat and humidity is here just for today. It'll be gone tomorrow. Of course, we have to get through lots of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front this afternoon and evening.
Most of us will just get garden variety storms, except many of the storms will have some torrential rain.
Early this morning, there were already some showers and storms in the Northeast Kingdom, and also just north of the Canadian border above Highgate, Vermont.
The storms will increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon. Some storms will contain microbursts, which, as I described yesterday, are intense blasts of wind and rain coming down from a collapsing thunderstorm. Microbursts cover only a small area, but the wind in these things is dangerous, and can cause a lot of damage.
We could use the rain, as it has been dry. Yet, forecasters still say one or two towns could get a flash flood out of today's weather pattern.
Most of the storms will be moving right along, so they won't sit over any particular area for a long time. That means they won't have time to dump enough rain to cause much more than some minor street flooding and a bit of erosion on your hilly driveway.
However. There's always a however. A few places might get what are known as training thunderstorms. The storms will be lined up like boxcars on a railroad track. Which means one storm after another would hit a particular place. That would be enough to cause flash flooding in the spots where the training thunderstorms hit.
The weird thing about training is one town might have some damaging flash floods while communities just a couple miles away, outside the storms, are just fine. You don't know much in advance where this will hit.
So, the best thing to do today is take it easy. Stay in the AC if you can. Listen for severe thunderstorm and/or flash flood warnings today, and if you're area is covered by one of these alerts, get inside a nice sturdy building. Unless the nice sturdy building is in a flood prone area. Then go up to higher ground.
At least the storminess we're getting today is not nearly as bad as it was in places like Wisconsin and Michigan. There, the flash flooding was pretty extreme. As an example, here are some scenes from hilly Houghton, in the Upper Penninsula of Michigan:
