Still Watching Dangerous Weekend Storm In Eastern U.S.

Forecast national map for Saturday. Note the very
strong high pressure off the East Coast pumping in
lots of very warm, wet air from the Gulf of Mexico. Storm shown
centered over Arksans will produce severe storms
and tornadoes south and east of it and ice to its northwest.
The storm moves into our area Saturday and especially
Sunday, with a risk of heavy ice or rain, and
possibly snow. 

Ingredients continue to come together for a dangerous storm in much of the eastern United States Friday through Sunday.

While forecasts will undoubtedly change somewhat as more updated data comes in, here's a quick broad brush of what the nation should expect, followed by effects here in Vermont.

Friday:  A line of severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes develops in eastern Oklahoma and Texas and moves into Arkansas and Louisiana. Strong, damaging thunderstorms and a few tornadoes along this line.

Ahead of the squall line, a few supercells with possible tornadoes, might well develop, with the risk of a very big, strong tornado or two.

Heavy rain will develop in the Tennessee and Ohio valleys later in the day. There will be a freezing rain risk from about Nebraska to southern Wisconsin.

Saturday: The threat of severe storms and tornadoes will shift to the central Gulf Coast and lower Tennessee valley. Overall this two-day severe outbreak might resemble one of the stronger outbreaks more common in the spring and early summer.

Meanwhile, heavy rain and the threat of flooding will develop from the Gulf Coast through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and extend as far north as Michigan. There's a risk of a good amount of freezing rain in a broad band from Kansas, through Missouri, into northern Ilinois, Michigan and into Ontario.

Near record warmth will affect the East Coast.

Sunday: The heavy rain shifts to eastward a bit and then diminishes, except north. . Heavy precipitation moves into northern New York and northern New England, and southern Ontario and Quebec. These areas will turn colder and there is a risk of heavy icing in some of these areas. Another day of record warmth is likely along the immediate East Coast.

Lets look at the next few days in Vermont:

Today: Snow showers with a cold front. Sharply falling temperatures this afternoon with the snow showers could cause a flash freeze on roads.

Thursday: Quiet and cold.  Lows a few degrees either side of zero, highs in the teens. At night, south winds start blowing, becoming strong in the Champlain Valley.

Friday: Windy and warm, with patchy light rain. A little ice possible east of the Greens in the morning.

Saturday: Now we're getting into the meat of the storm.  It'll be warm, unless the cold front comes in sooner than forecast. A few record highs possible. Rain is likely, especially north.  Turning sharply colder, especially north and west Saturday night with possible mixed precipitation.

Sunday: A wild card, with a complex thermal profile and questions about the position of cold air. There's a risk of significant, damaging icing, especially north. If it's a little warmer than expected, rain could be heavy enough to produce flooding. If it's a little colder than now expected, more snow would work into northern areas.

Overall, it looks like one to two inches of rain and/or melted snow and ice will come down northern Vermont Sunday. That's a lot for January. Somewhat lesser amounts of precipitation will probably hit southern Vermont.

The bottom line is, we don't know exactly what will be falling from the sky Sunday, but I'd consider postponing travel. And pay attention to those iee forecasts. If we got a lot of ice, we could lose quite a few trees and power lines.  If the forecasts for ice become more certain, stock up on supplies during the warmer weather Saturday morning and afternoon.

Big New Storm This Weekend: Possible More Tornadoes, Plains Snow, Future Floods?

The risk of tornadoes in the South will ramp up again this weekend,
and everybody is hoping things won't get as bad as they
did in Alabama last Sunday. 

It's time to start talking about a big new storm set to affect the United States, mostly this upcoming weekend.

At least to me, the signs that this might be another doozy came earlier this week, when the makings of this storm came ashore in southern California and unleased a spectacular lightning display that residents say they haven't seen in years.

Once this storm emerges into the Plains, it will unleash the risk of severe thunderstorms and possibly tornadoes, heavy snow in parts of the Plains, strong winds and flooding.

I'll break down all the risks in different parts of the nation first, then I'll get into the effects this storm might have in Vermont. Spoiler: Messy, but no disaster in the Green Mountain State.

TORNADOES

An early read on another severe weather outbreak. This is subject
to change, but the yellow area is most prone to severe
thunderstorms and possible tornadoes Saturday. 

Tornado season in the United States is young, but we've already had enough, given the swarm of tornadoes in the Southeast last Sunday that killed 23 people and caused widespread destruction.

Unfortunately, a broad area of the nation is prone to severe storms and possible tornadoes with this storm.

The details of exactly how this will play out are still unclear. After all, the bulk of the severe weather won't hit until Saturday.

This means we don't know where the focus on the most intense storms might be. Also, nobody is yet sure now widespread or intense any storms become, and whether the worst of the storms and potential tornadoes will hit populated areas.

Broadly, the risk of severe thunderstorms covers the lower Mississippi Valley from southern Illinois. States included in this risk area include Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, southern Missouri and parts of Louisiana.

Note that some of these states were hard hit last Sunday. The severe risk will continue eastward to a strip along the coastal Southeast from the Florida panhandle to North Carolina.

A second, similar storm expected during the middle of next week could resume this tornado and severe storm risk in the same areas I've just discussed.

SNOW

The upper Plains have had a rough six weeks of winter, and it's not going to change any time soon. A relatively weak disturbance is dumping some snow on the central and northern Plains. This storm promises to dump a lot more snow in the Dakotas, a good chunk of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Winter storm watches are already up for these areas. 

These areas are already deep in snow from a very snowy February. The water content of this snow is high, and this storm is expected to be on the dense side as well. Plus there's that other storm next week I mentioned that could deposit a lot more snow on the same region. It's also going to stay generally cold in this area through much of this month.

All this means there's a real flood threat. All that snow has to melt and go somewhere. The longer we wait for a spring warm up, the more likely that warm up will come suddenly with a spike to very toasty temperatures. The result in that case would be an abrupt snow melt and some serious flooding.  The Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and a few other places in this neck of the woods are bracing for a potentially dangerous spring flood season.

Speaking of floods......

FLOODING

Serious flooding occurred last month in and near Tennessee during the wettest February on record. Flood waters have yet to fully recede, and this upcoming storm promises more heavy rain. The saturated soil can't take it so there's a real risk of renewed flooding in this region by Sunday. Worse, some early indications are that the storm next week might be even wetter than the one this weekend.

It seems like the Tennessee valley will dry out.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Josh from Montgomery, Vermont posted
this photographic proof that it
was friggin' cold there this morning.

As has been the case during the winter, the upcoming storm promises a mixed bag of precipitation for the Green Mountain State.

Also, as you've surely noticed, it's pretty damn cold out there today, especially for this time of year. It only got to 17 degrees for a "high" in Burlington yesterday, and most of us were within a few degrees either side of zero this morning. Some of the colder spots were in the minus teens.

The good news is this is very, very likely the coldest temperatures we'll see until next winter. That's not to say winter weather is over for the season, not by a long shot. But the worst has passed.

After yet another unseasonably chilly day today and another frigid morning tomorrow, it'll start to warm up.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s, depending upon where you are in Vermont, so that's only slightly cooler than average.  Combined with those temperatures, the sun will erode all those snowbanks out there a little bit.

Then the storminess arrives Saturday night. As it seems to always do, it'll start with a period of snow, then go over to a mix Sunday morning before turning to a light rain Sunday.

For us, this looks like it will be no blockbuster. Early hints are that there will be perhaps an inch of snow in the Champlain Valley and up to three or four in the mountains. The ice won't amount to too much, either, though freezing drizzle might linger much of the day Sunday east of the Green Mountains.

West of the Green Mountains, Sunday will be warm enough to thaw. But it won't be that warm - with highs near 40 - and any rain that falls seems like it will be light. The bottom line is I don't think we have much to worry about in the way of flooding with this one.

A cold front sweeps through Sunday night with snow showers, mostly in the mountains. Then it's more or less seasonable around here during the middle of next week ahead of the next storm.

Storm Chaser Suffers Blistering Criticism For Driving Into Tornado

The view of stormchasers just before driving into
an oncoming tornado on this Louisiana highway
The tornado was luckily weak

Despite the deaths in recent years and the danger, some storm chasers are getting way too cocky in their bids to get the most dramatic tornado videos, for fun, viewer clicks and profits.

This has created a backlash, and one of the more blistering ones hit Bart Comstock, who drove his care into what was fortunately a relatively weak tornado near Lena, Lousiana a few days ago.

A little over a week , National Weather Service meteorologists issued alerts for the potential of particularly dangerous tornadoes in northern Louisiana. The forecasters worried some of the tornadoes that would form would be exceptionally strong and long lasting and deadly.

Needless to say, hordes of storm chasers converged on northern Louisiana.

One of them was Comstock and his crew.  They spotted what they judged (correctly, it turned out) to be a pretty weak, but still impressive tornado.

As the Washington Post Capital Weather Gang explained it:

"After spotting the tornado, video from Comstock and his crew shows the chase vehicle take off at a high speed straight for the twister - as its engine roars.

A second camera view from the same vehicle....shows the driver with one hand on the steering wheel, the other with a camera photographing the storm.

'We're in it, we're inside the tornado right now,' one of the crew says while another chaser is heard laughing in the background. 

The car is nearly blown off the road, while the chasers shout excitedly, "Whoa!"

After the encounter, one of the crew boasts, tweeting, "OMG, Just took a DIRECT HIT from a #tornado in Lena, LA. Got great footage, mult cameras.'"

Yeah, that sounds pretty reckless.

As a side note, you shouldn't be holding a camera with one hand a steering wheel with another even while driving in nice weather, never mind a tornado.

As the Washington Post notes, a lot of other chasers agreed with me.

These chasers and meteorologists took to Twitter right away to blast Comstock.

"You're doing it wrong...Takes direct hit and brags about having video," tweeted Victor Gensini a meteorology professor at the College of DuPage who leads student storm chasing tours.

"This is not a badge of honor, nor is it a good example. Bragging about it is tone deaf," said National Weather Service meteorologist who storm chases in her spare time.

"I try not to be judgmental.....but storm chasers driing INTO a tornado essentially laughing all the way. That's...not a good look," tweeted Houston meteorologist Matt Lanza.

Comstock argues that he is an experienced storm chaser and only takes calculated risks.

He had a direct message chat about it with Marshall Shepherd, a meteorologist, who among many other things, writes for Forbes magazine.

Comstock said radar indicated that if there was a tornado near Interstate 49 in Lena, it wasn't strong and didn't show signs of getting stronger. They stayed south of the storm cell, which would have meant they had an escape route if things escalated.

The storm chasers figured the tornado would weaken, as its parent storm's energy was being damaged by another nearby storm. Thus, they decided to drive into it. Had it been a stronger storm, Comstock said, they would have stayed away.

"Our choice to get closer and then transect the tornado was not made as lightly as the video may make it appear," Comstock said.

What about less experienced storm chasers who see that video, see what they think is a weak tornado and drive into it? And then the tornado strengthens, or is worse than what appears from a distance? Doesn't that risk peoples' lives?

Comstock told Shepherd:

"Simply because I do something when chasing does not mean I condone nor do I want others to copy me. Especially those who may only have limited experience with storms and chasing. Driving into tornadoes is dangerous no matter how strong they are. I took a calculated risk but not one with 100% odds that I would come out unscathed."

Of course, people like me are perhaps culpable, too. After all, I do share these videos from time to time. And I'm putting Comstock's in this post, so you can see exactly what we're talking about.  But by doing so, am I encouraging risky behavior?

I'm not sure.

On the one hand, as Shepherd notes, you want to bring the awe and excitement of science into the mainstream. On the other hand, you don't want to put people in harm's way.

No matter what, it's always going to be a matter of walking a fine line in these matters.

Severe weather and tornado season is ramping up toward its peak in late April, May and June. There's going to be a lot of new tornado videos coming out in the next few months. How many risks will people take to get the "money shots" of these tornadoes? And will they be worth it?

I'll repeat. I'm not sure.

For what it's worth, here's the video of Comstock and his carload of chasers excitedly driving into the Lena, Louisiana tornado.  As you can see, the tornado wasn't too dramatic, as tornadoes go, but what if it surprised them?

You decide.

Nominee For Dumbest Person To Ever Ignore A Weather Warning

I'll admit it.


Some idiot drove his pickup truck onto a California coastal jetty
amid huge, crashing storm waves. It ended poorly.

If I were near a coastline and there was a big storm kicking up humongous waves and surf, I'd go down and watch it - provided I was well away from the waves and far above them, and had an easy, safe escape route if flooding started.  

Not so for a dumb guy in northern California. There's a video of him and his exploits at the bottom of this post.

On Thursday, there was a high surf advisory in northern California, including Humboldt Bay.

Photographers flocked down there to enjoy the view of the picturesque, but dangerous large waves crashing into the rocks - from a safe, dry distance. Ah, the beauty of long lenses.

Suddenly, one of the photographer had an astonishing sight: As turbulent, scary waves crashed against and over a jetty, some idiot drove his Nissan pickup truck with Arkansas plates out onto it,   apparently to get a better view of the stormy seas.

As you might have guessed, this didn't end well at all.

One of the photographers who was safely on shore, H. Phil Hanes said he and his wife watched the whole scene. And photographed and filmed it, of course.

Soon, waves overwhelmed the truck and battered it around. The video appears as if the truck would be swept off the jetty, but somehow it wasn't. But the guy driving the Nissan was stuck.

"It was just stopped on the part you shouldn't even be driving on.....The waves were so big" Hanes told the Eureka, California Times-Standard.

Somebody called the Coast Guard, which sent a helicopter to the scene. Because of the dangerous waves, a rescue swimmer was lowered via rope to the stranded Nissan driver. He was plucked from the jetty and brought up to the helicopter.

Nobody was hurt, but this idiot sure put other peoples' lives in danger. We don't know who this moron is. The Coast Guard said the guy didn't have any identifying information with him.

At last report, the battered pickup truck was still out on the jetty. The Coast Guard said it is the driver's responsibility to remove it, when there's no storm waves.

Could get expensive to do, but oh well, his fault, right?

Heed those weather warnings folks, no matter what the hazard is.

Here's the video. You can see what an idiot this guy was. Waves are pretty, though:

Weather Porn: Dangerous Close Up Money Shots Or Stunning Scene Setters?

The Washington Post's Capitol Weather Gang had an interesting post today on the relative merits of different kinds of severe storm photography and videos, stuff I like to call weather porn.

@TornadoTitans, via Twitter offered up
this long view of a scary supercell thunderstorm
in Kansas over the weekend. 

Is it better to get distant shots of storms, where you can see the gorgeous, complex structures of these supercell thunderstorms that roam the Plains?

Or do you want to get right into the storm's business, getting as close to a violent tornado as possible, or inside the damn thing, so you can vicariously live on the edge of danger when you watch the videos?

Gawd knows there's a market for both. I certainly lap up both.

But there's moral issues involved. Everybody in the storm photography and video field wants to outdo what's already been done, so they take more and more risks.

The result seems to be more and more people are getting run over by tornadoes.

This came to a head last May 31, when storm chasers were killed by a massive, unpredictable tornado near El Reno, Oklahoma.

Over the weekend, tornado chasers got in trouble once again as unpredictable tornadoes spun up in and around Nebraska.   

Even the tame thunderstorms of Vermont
like this one north of Sheldon, Vermont
in 2012 I captured, can be
awesomely beautiful from a distance.  

Luckily, nobody got killed this time, but one chase team got its vehicle smacked through the windshield by a huge piece of irrigation equipment that became airborne as a tornado approached.

Another team dodged falling power poles and lots of scary sparks and electrical currents when they got too close to a tornado.

I have to admit, I get a thrill out of these in or near the tornadoes videos, which makes me part of the problem. I'm part of the demand.

I chase storms myself occasionally, but I'm in Vermont, where we rarely get tornadoes or extremely severe storms. Just marginally severe ones, mostly. Still I'm cautious.

In the rare instance when there is a tornado warned supercell, I keep my distance. Yeah, I get into the thick of a strong storm to get a sense of the drama, but if things get dicey, I try to get out of Dodge.

I often pull back from storms,  not necessarily out of a sense of safety, but out of a desire to take in the whole picture, to enjoy the complex structure in the clouds of even the most pedestrian, garden variety thunderstorm off in the distance.  

Many storm chasers pull back also and give us stunning images of storms. Even the most aggressive, in the heart of the storm type chasers, like TornadoTitans often give us perspectives from outside the chaos of a supercell.

I want to see even more of that.

At the risk of glorifying people who take too many risks, here are a couple of the videos I was talking about, where people got too close last weekend.  The first is the crew getting hit by wind blown irrigation equipment, the second is the close call with a tornado involving electrical poles: