Florida Storm Floods Big Time, Brings Odd Tornado Scare

Flooding at the Fort Lauderdale airport last night. 

As I mentioned yesterday, most of the nation is having quiet Christmas week weather, but not sunny Florida, which at the moment isn't so sunny.

Parts of the state got hit by some big time flash flooding overnight. It was so bad it temporarily blocked access to the Fort Lauderdale airport.

The flooding was mostly concentrated between Miami and Fort Lauderdale, with rainfall amounts outside thar area being not as bad. Where it rained hardest, though, the rain was incredible.

Hallandale, Florida reported 12.8 inches of rain. Fort Lauderdale itself had about eight inches of rain.

The downpours hit in a very short amount of time, which made the flash flooding worse. The Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport had 4.45 inches of rain in just an hour. For comparison's sake this area normally gets about two inches of rain during the entire month of December. It's normally the dry season in South Florida about now.

Access roads to the airport were closed, and a lot of flights were delayed.  The airport has since reopened, but the water flood had been replaced by a flood of traffic from cars originally blocked from being allowed in. A number of homes and businesses were flooded in the region.

Meanwhile, in the Florida Keys, residents and tourists hunkered down as rare tornado warnings were issued. Supercell thunderstorms came ashore in that area, carrying the risk of strong waterspouts that would turn into a risk of strong tornadoes down there.

Waterspouts are common around the Keys, but almost always, they stay offshore and weak. This was a totally different scenario with the nearly Midwest-style supercells creating a risk of stronger twisters.

So far, though, there have been no official reports of any tornado touchdowns.

The storm is moving northeast into coastal Georgia and South Carolina.  Flooding is especially likely to hit coastal South Carolina today.

Early this morning, rain and high tides had already blocked sections of 26 streets and roads in Charleston, South Carolina.

The storm will then go safely out to sea and not affect the rest of the Eastern Seaboard.

Here's a news report from the Fort Lauderdale airport:

More On Dorian: Canada Is Next Target, Believe It Or Not

The western eyewall of Hurricane Dorian was brushing the Outer Banks of North Carolina this morning.

Complete destruction in the Bahamas from Hurricane Dorian.
Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images.

It's unclear whether the eye of Dorian will actually hit land, but conditions were still really rough out there this morning. One town reported a gust of 96 mph.

The National Hurricane Center reported at 7 a.m. Orcacoke, North Carolina had a sustained wind of 69 mph with gusts to 89 mph. 

So more damage is certainly occurring out there on the Outer Banks.

As if Dorian needed to cause more damage.

Four United States deaths have been reported with Dorian. The Associated Press said those deaths were attributed to falls or electrocution as people prepared for the storm. The death toll in Bermuda rose to 30, and will go higher. Survivors have told harrowing stories of people swept away and of houses disintegrating with families inside.

Dorian is now accelerating toward the northeast.  The hurricane, as we know, was notably slow moving, even stalling over the northern Bahamas for a day.

Once hurricanes get as far north as Dorian is now - near North Carolina - mid-latitude westerlies usually pick them up and sweep them northeastward very, very quickly. This will happen with Dorian.

When hurricanes accelerate northward like this, their wind fields expand. Dorian will pass well east of New England, but with its larger size, it will come close enough to prompt a tropical storm warning for Cape Cod and the islands. Winds there could gust to 60 mph late tonight and early Saturday

Dorian looks like it's also going to hit Nova Scotia, Canada on Saturday, and a hurricane warning is in effect there. Strong winds and heavy rain are sure to cause quite a bit of damage in the Canadian province. Environment Canada says winds could reach hurricane force and rainfall might reach six inches.

By tomorrow, Dorian will begin to lose its tropical characteristics, but will still be a powerful storm as it hits Newfoundland on Sunday.

Here in Vermont, we don't expect any effects from Dorian other than clouds and a chance of a few showers east.

Dorian will help drive a couple of cold fronts southward through us, so expect some showers, especially Saturday night with these cold fronts and some cooler than normal weather through at least Monday.

Not Alabama: Reivigorated Dorian Targets Carolinas

Devastation in the Bahamas. Image via The Weather Channel

Seemingly indestructable Hurricane Dorian gathered some strength yesterday from the warm Gulf Stream waters east of Florida and is now slogging its way toward the Carolinas, where a lot of damage seems inevitable.  

Early this morning, the National Hurricane Center said Dorian was 75 miles south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina with winds of 115 mph.  Charleston and surrounding areas were already getting gusty rainbands and flooding by dawn, and it will get worse.

Storm surges will range from four to eight feet in many areas, and water levels might rise well in advance of Dorian's strong winds. Many streets in Charleston were flooded by storm surges early this morning. Additionally, six to 12 inches of rain are in the forecast for coastal areas of the Carolinas.

Dorian was also spinning off several tornadoes this morning. There has already been several reports of confirmed tornadoes with damage in North and South Carolina.

Dorian is still expected to parallel the Carolina coast, and might come ashore at least briefly anywhere between South Carolina and North Carolina's Outer Banks.  It'll be close enough to cause hurricane force winds, especially east of Interstate 95.

Trump o Wednesday tried to defend his incorrect Sunday statement
that Dorian would hit Alabama, using an outdated National
Hurricane Center map altered with a Sharpie making it look
like it was headed toward Alabama.

This after all the extreme destruction in the Bahamas, where the death toll has risen to 20. Authorities expect to find more fatalities. Many injured people were airlifted to hospitals in Nassau in the Bahamas. (There is little hurricane damage in Nassau, as Dorian passed well north of that city.)

Meanwhile, we had our own unfortunate hurricane sideshow Wednesday in the White House.  President Trump falsely or mistakenly said on Sunday that Alabama would get hit by Hurricane Dorian.

After that little gaffe, he could have easily corrected himself and moved on. Anyone can make a mistake, and everybody would have forgotten about it.  

About 20 minutes after Trump said Sunday Alabama would be hit, the National Weather Service in Birmingham, Alabama tweeted out assurances to the public that the state was fine, no need to panic. Trump could have then said, "Whoops! We have updated information, Alabama is OK after all."

But oh, no, not Donald! He actually wasted time Wednesday showing a doctored National Hurricane Center map that had been very outdated by the time he made his Alabama comments on Sunday.

Here's a National Hurricane Center map issued Sunday morning,
hours before Trump's Alabama gaffe. He could have consulted
this map, which (accurately) predicted Dorian would
avoid Alabama and parallel the Florida coast instead.

The map was from three days earlier, showing a projected path for Dorian into the heart of Florida. Worse, Trump or more likely somebody on his staff took a Sharpie and appended a further path on the map into southeastern Alabama. Trump needs his own reality,  you understand.

Of course, you'd think a president would have the latest information from the National Hurricane Center. By Sunday, the NHC forecast had Dorian moving northward, paralleling the Florida coast (which is exactly what actually happened.)  Why wasn't he using Sunday's NHC information on Sunday?

By the way, it is technically illegal to falsify a National Weather Service forecast or statement.

Trump later cited so called "spaghetti plots" which are maps that show what each computer model thinks would be the path of the storm. (The lines go in many directions, so all the lines on the map look like a bowl of spaghetti, hence the name.)

The spaghetti plots that Trump said indicated possible Dorian paths into Alabama were issued four days before his statement, so they were outdated. If Trump is that interested in spaghetti plots (doubtful) why didn't he check them Sunday morning, when all of them had Dorian missing Alabama?

Instead of laughably trying to defend himself with big efforts to defend his lies, maybe Trump should focus on a hurricane response in the Carolinas, and to see what the Bahamas need from us.

No Deaths, But Another Disaster Might Now Be Hitting The South

Peach blossoms like this might be damaged or destroyed in a
widespread hard freeze going on in the South this week. A large
percentage of this year's crop might be ruined. 

It's kind of hard to tell right away, but another big disaster might be hitting the South, the second one this week.

As we know, tragic tornadoes killed 23 people and caused widespread property damage Sunday, especially in Alabama and Georgia.  

This new disaster now unfolding very likely won't kill or physically injure anybody. No additional houses will suffer structural damage. But this latest weather event could prove pretty expensive.

Freeze warnings stretch this morning in a broad band from Texas to South Carolina. It was below freezing, with some areas of reporting record chill this morning. More hard freezes are forecast tonight and in some places, tomorrow night.

It's especially harsh in areas hit by the tornadoes. In Lee County, Alabama, the epicenter of the tornado disaster, some sleet was reported overnight, and temperatures were in the mid-20s this morning.

Across much of the South, especially east of the Mississippi River, it was a near-record warm February. That prompted a lot of crops, including big fruit tree farms to start budding and blooming much earlier than normal.

Then this blast of Arctic air hit. If this sounds familiar, it's because it is. Similar expensive freezes after record early season warmth  hit parts of the middle, southern and eastern parts of the nation in 2017 and 2018.

In the Texas hill country, a big area around Austin, peach trees were blooming. If the temperature falls to 28 or lower for a fairly extended period of time, you lose the entire peach crop once the flowers are blooming. That's the scenario Texas peach farmers are now facing. 

Early this morning, it was 26 degrees in Austin, Texas and 29 in San Antonio. Remember: It's usually a bit warmer in the cities than in rural areas, where the peach trees are.

In North Carolina, early varieties of peach trees are blooming, so those could be wiped out. On the bright side, later varieties of peach and apples aren't far enough along yet in North Carolina to suffer much harm. The cold will also slow down growth in those trees, so subsequent freezes later this month might not cause as much damage.

The situation is a little more dire in further south in South Carolina and Georgia, where peaches and other fruits have progressed along more than up in North Carolina.  Peach blooms are about two weeks ahead of schedule in South Carolina.

The freeze is in progress, so it won't be clear how much damage there is until days after the freeze ends, at least.

This isn't the type of weather disaster or event that garners headlines, like dramatic storms do, but worst case scenarios can cause many tens of millions in damages for farmers. Crop insurance helps, but it's not a cure all.

For the few of you who might be worried about how this will affect the famed cherry blossom spectacle in Washington DC, the short answer is, it won't. It is cold in Washington this week, with forecast temperatures to get as low as 20 degrees tonight and tomorrow night.

But the cherry buds are not nearly far enough along to suffer damage from the cold blast. Peak bloom in Washington is usually in late March or very early in April.

Texas, North Carolina To See Biggest Impacts Of Far-Ranging Storm

The opening salvo in the storm that's causing coast-to-coast problems
in the U.S. caused musdlides in California.
Photo via AccuWeather 

The storm that's causing problems from California to the southeastern United States looks like it will affect Texas and North Carolina the most.

Everybody in a stripe from northern Texas to Virginia is going to share in the bad weather.  Already, parts of southern California have been walloped by heavy rains.

Some of that rain fell on areas hit by
wildfires earlier this autumn. That causes mudslides, flash floods, debris flows and mandatory evacutations of some homes.

Roads were blocked by rocks and mud, but so far at least, there hasn't been much damage to houses and other buildings from this storm in southern California. The storm is now moving out of that area.

Texas is in trouble not so much by winter precipitation but by heavy rains in the eastern part of the state. True, northern Texas is going to have to contend with snow and ice, but a broad area of central and eastern Texas and much of Louisiana will get three to seven inches of rain out of this, with locally higher amounts.

Even bigger cities like Asheville, Winston-Salem, and maybe even Charlotte are in trouble with this storm.

It's already wet there, so there will probably be pretty extensive flooding in this region through Saturday.

The next trouble spot is North Carolina, South Carolina northeastern Georgia and western Virginia. In the highlands of western North Carolina, a few places can expect up to two feet of wet snow. Freezing rain looks like it will mix in through much of this area. Plus, it's going to get windy.

My bet is the power will be out in some of these areas for many days after the storm as a result.

For us Vermonters, good news: It still looks like this storm will miss us by a wide margin. We'll have mostly dry, chilly weather for the next few days. Some snow showers will come down Saturday and Saturday night, but it won't be a big deal.

Category 4 Hurricane Matthew A Dangerous Worst Case Scenario

Satellite view of extremely powerful Hurricane Michael as
it approached the Florida Panhandle this morning. 

I was a little worried yesterday that Hurricane Michael might end up being more powerful than forecast.

Unfortuately, it's more powerful than expected. Much more powerful.

Hurricane Michael was a Category 4 storm with top winds of 145 mph as of 7 a.m. today.

Worse, it was still strengthening as of 8 a.m. this morning. The tops of the clouds near the eye of the storm were getting colder, which is a sure sign of strenthening. The central air pressure of Michael was also falling, meaning it's getting stronger.

If Michael comes ashore with 145 mph winds, it will be among the ten strongest hurricanes to make landfall anywhere in the United States. The area where it hits - probably near Panaman City - will never look the same.

To think that just five days ago, Michael seemed like a distant, minor threat. Now, it's a cataclysm. Another one in an era that has brought us some of the most destructive  hurricanes in U.S. history: This list is getting long and depressing: Harvey, Irma, Maria, Matthew. Sandy, Irene

The outer winds of Hurricane Michael were coming ashore in the Florida this morning. As I noted yesterday, this area has had a lot of hurricanes over the years. But this one is the strongest in memory.
A category 4 hurricane has never come ashore in the Florida Panhandle in records dating back to at least 1851.

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee put it starkly enough: "This will be a catastropjic event the likes of which this region has never seen."

The 145 mph winds will cover a relatively small area, as they do in most strong hurricanes. But destructive hurricane force winds will  cover a wide area. As of early this morning, the hurricane force winds extended out 45 miles from the center of Michael. Tropical storm force winds extended out 185 miles from the center.

The winds of all hurricanes diminish fairly quickly once they come ashore. But Michael is so powerful it will take quite awhile for the winds to spin down. That means hurricane force winds will plow into Georgia and tropical storm force winds will go all the way up into the Carolinas.  Michael will then pass off the East Coast by early Friday morning.

Best guesses are more than a million people will lose electricity from Florida to North Carolina.

Hurricane winds are often the most visually dramatic aspects of storms like Michael. We'll see a lot of  videos of it, I'm sure,since this storm is coming ashore during daylight hours.

Radar imagery of Michael at
7:10 a.m. today. 

However, storm surges are the most dangerous and most deadly aspects of hurricanes. The storm surge associated with super strong Michael will be beyond awful.  When the storm was still well off shore early this morning, Apalachicola, Florida had its fourth highest tide on record.

When the storm comes in, the storm surge will be ridiculous. If the storm comes ashore at high tide, the surge could be as much as 13 feet above normal levels.

Anybody who didn't evacuate from the storm surge zone will very likely die.  Storm surges flow violently, and have battering waves from the hurricane winds to boot. The water will also be laden with debris as it plows into shoreline neighborhoods.

I hope everybody is away from the coast by now. The mayor of Tallahassee, Florida said this morning it's now too late to evacuate. People just have to hunker down and hope for the best.

All hurricanes produce torrential rain. There will be stripe of four to eight inches of rain, with locally higher amount from the Florida Panhandle, across central Georgia, and into the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia.

As you remember, the Carolinas are still dealing with the catastrophic flooding and its aftermath from Hurricane Florence.  As of this morning, a southeasterly air flow off the Atlantic Ocean, arranged in part by the position of Michael, was dumping heavy showers on South Carolina.

This is going to be another extreme disaster. This, in a year we've had far too many.

Florence Floods Worsen; Hong Kong Typhoon, Never Ending Dry Summer Here

Just one example of the destruction from Florence. 

They warned us last week that Hurricane Florence, and its remnants once it came ashore would unleash cataclysmic flooding, and anyone who glances at the news knows this came to pass.

Already, at least 12 deaths have been reported from the storm and flooding. We are only in the middle stages of this disaster, as the rain continues to pour down in North Carolina, parts of South Carolina and some of Virginia.

Many rivers are or will be at record high levels. Some of these rivers won't crest until sometimes next week. There's a lot more destruction to come.

In a tweet, the National Weather Service said late last night, "The worst flooding is yet to come for portions of the Carolinas, the southern/central Appalachians from western NC to west-central VA and eastern WV."

The downpours today have already spread inland to the Blue Ridge mountains in western North Carolina and adjacent Tennessee and Virginia. This raises the prospect of sudden, terrible flash floods and landslides.

There's a lot of concern about people living in deep valleys and hollows in those mountains that could be hit by these mudslides and floods.

This is a big enough disaster to have impacts far from the flood zone.  The cost of many items, from gasoline to pork is expected to go up for all of us. Deliveries, shipments and travel is delayed because so many major roads are under water. This includes what is normally extremely busy Interstate 95 in North Carolina.

A new North Carolina single-storm rainfall record has already been set, with more than 33 inches reported in Swansboro, North Carolina.

The remains of Florence will finally head northeast and out of the Carolinas early this week. It will likely cause some flooding from Pennsylvania to southern New England, but that flooding will be nothing like what's hitting the Carolinas.

TYPHOON MANGKHUT

As if Hurricane Florence and its flooding wasn't bad enough, Typhoon Mangkhut spread lots of death and destruction in the Philippines and Hong Kong. This is just a couple weeks after another typhoon caused widespread destruction in Japan.

Mangkhut is so far the strongest hurricane or typhoon on the planet this year, with gusts of 200 mph. (Hurricanes and typhoons are exactly the same thing as each other, just the names are different. )

About 50 people are confirmed dead in the Philippines, and that toll is very likely to rise. 

Videos from Hong Kong show people being violently blown against buildings, cranes falling off skyscrapers, high rises swaying ominiously in the wind, countless windows blown out of other high rises with stuff from inside these buildings being sucked out by the wind, and airborne debris racing past windows as frightened people watch.

All this with the eye of the typhoon passing roughly 60 miles to the south of Hong Kong.

Some of those incredible videos of this typhoon are at the bottom of this post that you have to watch.

VERMONT HEAT GRINDS ON FOR NOW

Today will be the 80th day this year that Burlington, Vermont has a high temperature of 80 degrees or more. That's close to the record for most days of such weather in one year. There were 86 days of 80 degree heat during 2016.

There will probably be another 80 degree high in Burlington tomorrow, but that's probably it for now.  There might or might not be more 80 degree days later this autumn, but the chances of that happening are falling fast.

Today will feel like midsummer with rather high humidity and temperatures well into the 80s. So much for September cool.

Northern Vermont still needs rain, and of course, the remains of Florence look like they will largely miss that area, so the drought goes on.

At least it will be cooler midweek in the wake of Florence. High temperatures will "only" be in the seasonable 60s.

Here's some of those videos from Hong Kong in Typhoon Mangkhut



This video also graphically illustrates the power of this typhoon:



I don't know what this adult and child were doing out in the typhoon, but it easily blew them away. Luckily, they were rescued:

Florence About To Unleash Catastrophe On The Carolinas

Terrifying satellite photo of Hurricane Florence off te Carolina coast
this morning. 

Hurricane Florence continues its march toward the Carolina coast. Meteorologists and emergency managers are almost at a loss for words about how bad this is going to be.

Latest forecasts now have Florence stalling just off or over the coastline Thursday night and Friday.

This will unleash a long period of storm surges that will cause immense flooding in a large are of the coastline. Experts say some of North Carolina's barrier islands will never be the same after this.

Meterorologist are still expecting feet of rain, with some forecasts pointing to up to 40 inches of rain from this.

That would shatter records for the most rain from any storm in history along the East Coast. Of course, this would also mean incredible, unprecedented flooding.

Storm surges could range from nine to thirteen feet deep between Cape Fear and Cape Lookout.

This all might sound like I'm exaggerating. I'm not. A miracle could still happen and things might not be as bad as this, but don't count on it. Nobody else is.

A meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Wilmington, North Carolina had this to say:

"This will likely be the storm of a lifetime for portions of te Carolina coast, and that's saying a lot given the impacts we've see from Hurricanes Diana, Hugo, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd and Matthew....I can't emphasize enough the potential for unbelievable damage from wind, storm surge and inland flooding with this storm."

Veteran storm chaser Reed Timmer said: "A storm like this is something that you can't really compare with previous history....We just simply have never seen a forecast track like this."

In other words, if you wanted to create a nightmare path for a hurricane, Florence has got it.

Another satellite view of Hurricane Florence. Note the solid clouds
around the eye indicating a strong, well-organized storm

There will be picky changes to the forecast strength, path and potential location of a stall with Florence, but it's now almost guaranteed that parts of South and North Carolina are in for an unprecedented disaster.

This also threatens to become an immense environmental disaster, too. As CBS reports, the flooding will hit countless manure pits and coal ash dumps, and the toxins from these sites will spread far and wide in the floodwaters.

Florence will affect all of is. For instance, CNN reports that the hurricane has a big chance of causing a giant spike in gas prices for all of us, especially for people up and down the East Coast, including us Vermonters.

Two major pipelines, including one that carries 100 million gallons of gas from Houston to New Jersey is in the path of Florence. The pipeline is highly vulnerable to damage.

There's probably a lot more I can say about Hurricane Florence, but I'm going to just let this go for today and brace for impact.

Hurricane Florence Still Set To Unleash Terrible Disaster On The Carolinas

Hurricane Florence as seen from space. Photo via Reuters.

Hurricane Florence continues to churn menacingly in the Atlantic Ocean this morning. The Carolinas are still in its crosshairs, and all indications are that unfortunately, this is going to be very, very bad.

If you were heartened by reports that Florence weakened a little bit overnight, don't be. It's still an incredibly dangerous hurricane, and there's no reason why it can't restrengthen.

When you get a hurricane as big and bad as Florence, the eye of the storm often collapses and re-forms.

During these so-called eyewall replacement cycles, the strength of the storm will fluctuate. Hurricanes like Florence will weaken a bit when the thunderstorms surrounding the eye of the storm rearrange themselves. Once the storms are done fixing themselves up, the hurricane re-strenghtens.

Worse, these cycles often make the area of strong winds in a hurricane cover a larger area, which would eventually make the wind damage and storm surge worse and more widespread once the hurricane makes landfall.

Forecasts are consistent that Florence will probably come ashore somewhere in North or South Carolina. Don't pay too much attention to exact spot where Florence will land. The whole region is in trouble, regardless of whether Florence makes landfall a couple dozen miles north or south of where it's currently expected to.

The projected path of Hurricane Florence continuies to
consistently target the Carolinas. 

The bottom line is that the Carolinas and some surrounding areas are really screwed,  and the people who live down there know it. Already,  more than 1.5 million people have been wisely told to evacuate inland and away from rivers that will inevitably flood.

Although the core of the hurricane isn't expected to hit land until Thursday night, Florence is already causing some problems.

The evacuation of the Outer Banks of North Carolina, those barrier islands that jut out into the Atlantic, was slowed because high surf was washing across some of the roads that serve as evacuation routes.

Reuters reported that traffic was backed up for nine miles because of this. But at least the traffic jam was a sign that people are taking Florence seriously and are getting out of Dodge.

Even though the hurricane hasn't hit yet, it's still disruptive. What do you do with 1.5 million people who are fleeing inland? And fleeing inland isn't necessarily good enough. You want people to move to places that won't be affected by river flooding. Some are going all the way to place like Tennessee and Kentucky or even more distant places to get away from the storm.

Echoing the disaster with Hurricane Hugo in 1989, South Carolina officials are blocking eastbound lanes of Interstate 26. Both east and westbound lanes will become all westbound, which will help facilitate evacuations.

By the way, if you know anybody in the Carolinas, or Virginia or anyplace else threatened by Florence, tell them to heed all warnings and alerts. If they're ordered to evacuate and they don't, tell them you will hate them, disinherit them or whatever it takes to get them to move.

The wind and storm surge are going to be immensely destructive with Florence. Winds could easily gust past 130 mph along the coast. Storm surges could reach six to 12 feet. More than 750,000 homes are in the path of this potential storm surge. Coastal areas in the Carolinas are flat, so storm surge flooding can extend inland quite away.

Speaking of inland, flooding in the interior of the Carolinas and surrounding areas still look to be the biggest problem with Florence.   There are still signs that Florence will slow down or stall once it gets inland. The wind with the storm will quickly diminish, but the rain will keep pouring down.

The benchmark for how bad a hurricane can get in the Carolinas is
Hurricane Hazel in 1954. This photo shows what Hurricane
Hazel did to the North Carolina coast. 

There's the potential for one to two feet of rain. A few computer models hint at as much as 40 inches of rain, the amount of rain we in Vermont normally get over the course of a year.

Some of these downpours will bump up against the mountains in the western parts of North and South Carolina, and maybe Virginia and West Virginia.

The wet air rising up and over the mountains would intensify rainfall rates, sending walls of water down the slopes of the mountains and into populated areas.

Even if most of the rain falls in North Carolina, people in South Carolina are still screwed because most of the rivers enter South Carolina from the north.

Heavy rains could also spread into saturated areas of Maryland, Pennsylvania and Delaware, causing another round of serious flooding there.

Hurricane Florence is even a national security risk. There are military installations in low lying areas around Norfolk, Virginia and along Chesapeake Bay, and storm surge flooding has the potential to be especially destructive there.

As Reuters notes, Camp Lejeune, the largest U.S Marine Corp base on the East Coast, is on the beach near Wilmington, North Carolina.  Navy ships are leaving the port in Norfolk, Virginia ahead of Florence

This will certainly be a life-threatening, and very expensive disaster. It's something the United States doesn't need, given the horrible hurricane season last year, and the parade of floods, wildfires and storms that have continually raked the nation in recent months and years.

Wild Storm Video From North Carolina

Tornado damage in Texas Tuesday.

Part of the ingredients that gave New England its  latest snowstorm Wedneday and Thursday produced severe weather in parts of the South.

At least five tornadoes touched down in the Houston, Texas area Tuesday, causing quite a bit of damage.

A few more tornadoes and severe storms struck the Carolinas Wednesday.

Here's a dramatic video of a very severe thunderstorm in coastal North Carolina Wednesday shot by Deborah Corman in her yard. Bet she was afraid her roof would go:

 

Matthew, Slamming Bahamas, Targets Florida, South Carolina

Hurricane Matthew, with its eye over Haiti
early Tuesday, looks like a horrible sinister
face in this undoctored satellite image.  

Reports are still sketchy from Haiti after Category 4 Hurricane Matthew slammed that impoverished nation with winds of up to 145 mph and feet of rain.

However, I'm afraid we might ended up hearing of a high death toll, but I could be wrong. I hope I AM wrong.

The New York Times reports massive devastation in Haiti, with crops ruined, houses blown away and terrible flooding.

The Times' reports are still understandably sketchy, as it takes days for word to get out after a disaster like this.

However, humanitarian groups said since crops are destroyed, hunger will be a growing problem in Haiti. Plus, roads, houses and other infrastructure are destroyed, making things worse.

Matthew went over the eastern end of Cuba late Tuesday, and the mountainous terrain there weakened it somewhat. Top wind speeds in Matthew were "only" 125 mph as of early Wednesday morning.

The hurricane is going over very warm water now, and upper level winds are light, so chances are it could restrengthen. 

Which, of course, is bad for Florida. And probably the Carolinas. Matthew, as you might have heard, is expected to parallel Florida's east coast. It might or might not make landfall in Florida, and that will determine how bad things get down there.

If it stays offshore, there will be gusts to hurricane force, torrential rains and very bad beach erosion. That sounds terrible, but if it comes ashore, it will be much worse, with major hurricane winds and even more extreme destruction.

Same goes for the Carolinas if it manages to come ashore there.

NBC News and other news outlets say that people are preparing for this by stocking up on supplies to get them through what might be very long power failures.

A man pushes a bicycle through the flooded wreckage of
Les Cayes, Haiti Tuesday. Photo by Andres
Martinez Casares/Reuters.  

Shelves at places like Walmart throughout the region of have been stripped bare of bottled water, canned food and batteries.  Long lines of cars are at gas stations, their owners trying to fill up.

Possibly millions of people are on alert for possible evacuations.

Some are already leaving. A million people have been told to leave in coastal South Carolina. Hotels are already booked inland, for example in the central South Carolina city of Columbia, which is away from the coast.

It's looking less likely that Matthew will affect the Northeast, though that can't be ruled out. Most forecasters thought an incoming frontal system would pick up Matthew and pull it toward New England.

Now it looks like that weather front won't be strong enough to pull Matthew north, so it's becoming increasingly likely that it will head east out ot sea once it's done with North Carolina.

However, we still might be talking about Matthew for awhile. Though this is very, very iffy, some forecasts pull Matthew out over the Gulf Stream, where it could take advantage of very warm water and restrengthen (depending upon whether upper level winds are favorable) It could even loop back towards the United States in about a week or more, but that idea, as I said, is just speculation at this point.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Nicole has formed well to the northeast of Matthew over the open Atlantic.

At this point, it looks like Nicole will meander in the open waters south of Bermuda without ever becoming super strong. It's unlikely to get strong enough to become a hurricane.  However, Nicole might somehow influence the path of Matthew, possibly making the hurricane do strange turns or even loops. We'll see.

As Expected, Epic Flood Underway In The Carolinas

Just the beginning. Flooding increasing last
evening in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Photo
from MyrtleBeachonline.  

Hurricane Joaquin has certainly been unpredictable, with all the different scenarios we ran through all week on where it might or might not make landfall.

As of this morning Joaquin was finally starting to move north away from the Bahamas, after crushing many of those islands with winds of over 100 mph for two days.

There's a lot of damage down there no doubt from wind, storm surges and flooding.

Certainly a big, sad disaster for the Bahamas.

At least now we know where Joaquin is going, which fortunately out to sea well east of the United States. Because we have enough of our own problems with weather in the good ol' U.S of A anyway.

Unlike Joaquin, what has been consistent for days now has been the forecasts for epic flooding in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.

That forecast of terrible flooding sure was coming true this morning.

Widespread flash flood and flood warnings were in effect for the Carolinas early this morning and the rain continued to pour down intensely. Things will undoubtedly worsen as the day goes on today.

Early this morning, all traffic was banned from the penninsula that houses Charleston, South Carolina because of the widespread flooding.

(Charleston residents probably knew this would get bad, not only because of the warnings before the storm, but also because The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore showed up in town. When he's around, you know the weather is going to get very, very bad.)

There have already been reports of over ten inches of rain in the Carolinas. Forecasts continue to say more than 20 inches could fall in some spots. Other forecasts call for a foot of rain in parts of South Carolina just today.

Television station WLTX in Columbia, South Carolina said residents in much of the area around that state are bracing for the worst flooding in at least 125 years. Gov. Nikki Haley is among several governors who have declared states of emergency.

Haley is already urging people to leave low lying areas, and is also telling people to pretty much not drive anywhere this weekend.

Overnight and this morning, the storm system in the Southeast was siphoning moisture straight from Hurricane Joaquin and spraying it as if it were a giant fire house into South Carolina and on into central North Carolina.

The deep tropical moisture and the storm system will linger in the Southeast all weekend so these heavy rains will continue. 

A house in Bermuda was swept away
by Hurricane Joaquin. 

Further north into Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey, it won't rain as hard as it will in the Carolinas, but the problem there will be coastal flooding.

The contrast between strong high pressure over Quebec and low pressure over the Southeast will continue the strong east winds that are pushing water into the coast.

Usually, when there's a coastal flood on the East Coast, it's usually maybe just two high tide cycles that cause the problem.

But this is lasting FOREVER. It started in earnest yesterday, and each high tide through the weekend will bring flooding. The repeated battering from the Atlantic Ocean will cause massive beach erosion. And the repeated high water with each tide cycle is going to cause more and more damage to shoreline buildings and roads.

So this is really a disastrous weekend. Things should get better for everyone early next week, but the extreme damage will have been done.

Some people have asked if global warming is causing all this extreme weather. Those kinds of questions always pop up in big storms, and that's a good thing.

The best I can do is speculate that global warming might, just might have had an influence, but obviously wasn't the sole cause of all this trouble.

Let's break it down:

Hurricane Joaquin was stronger than forecast, having fed off record high water temperatures near Bermuda. The record high ocean temperatures are consistent with global warming, so there's that. Maybe Joaquin was stronger than it would have otherwise been without climate change.

However, there have been hurricanes this strong in the region in the past.

The epic flooding in the Southeast is also consistent with global warming, in that precipitation events are likely to become more extreme as the climate changes. Again, I won't say climate change is causing the flood disaster in the Southeast, but there's a chance it contributed.

In terms of the coastal flooding further north, I have no idea if the high tides themselves were influenced by climate change. But sea levels have been rising as ice caps melt, so if the sea level is a bit higher to begin with, then the coastal flooding we're getting now is probably worse than it would have been under similar weather patterns decades ago.

Ghosts Of Pacific Hurricane Blasted Canada, Carolinas, Maine, Malta, Sicily.....

A severe "Medicane" storm in the Mediteranean Sea
this week distantly had a bit of its origins
in a Pacific Ocean hurricane.  

During the third wee in October,  a hurricane named Ana threatened Hawaii.  Turns out it didn't actually make landfall there, but it did give them a scare, along with some high surf, gusty winds and some heavy rain.

Ana then fell apart, and its remnants moved across the Pacific Ocean. The Ana remnants combined with other weather systems to cause a nasty storm with wind gusts to hurricane force in British Columbia, Canada  around October 28.

That British Columbia storm, partly the remains of Ana, then combined with other weather systems to produce that epic storm in the eastern United States last weekend.

That's the one that caused the record early snowfall in the Carolinas, and then blasted northern Maine with up to 21 inches of early season snow.

The ghosts of Ana continue to haunt. Energy from the nor'easter that hammered the Carolinas and Maine went across the Atlantic Ocean, where it helped spin up a nasty storm in the Mediterranean Sea late this week.

A snowstorm in Bangor, Maine last weekend left this damage
A bit of the storm had its origins as a hurricane in the Pacific
Ocean. The nor'easter that brought this snow helped
contribute to a subsequent severe storm in the Mediterrannean.  

According to Dr. Jeff' Master's weather blog, the storm in the Mediterranean was dubbed a "medicane" because it acquired characteristics of a tropical storm or hurricane.

The "medicane" wasn't a true hurricane as it had a blend of elements of a tropical system and that of a regular storm system.

It was a nasty storm though, causing terrible flooding in Malta, and sustained winds on the island of 47 mph gusting to 66 mph. Other weather stations on Malta reported gusts of over 90 mph.

Still, it's amazing to see that the ghosts and traces of a hurricane near Hawaii subsequently helped lead to very troublesome storms in such disparate places as British Columbia, South Carolina, Maine, Malta, and at last report, Sicily.

I wonder if the ghosts of Ana will cause trouble anywhere else. Who knows? Maybe it'll be Hawaii's turn again.  I really, really strongly doubt that would happen, but wouldn't it be wild if it did?

Wacky Jet Stream Partly to Blame for Carolina, Maine Snows And Other Recent Weather Weirdness.

The scene in Bangor, Maine this morning. And
this is before the worst of the storm arrived.  

Every so often, the weather really goes off the rails, and this weekend is one of those times.

You might have seen all the news about the snow in the Carolinas yesterday.  It was the earliest in the season they'd seen such snowy weather.

Today, Maine is getting an epic snowstorm, with up to a foot of snow and gusts to 55 mph expected. This is something that normally doesn't hit until December. And even by December standards this storm is really something up there.

The cause of all this big weather in the northern hemisphere is, of course, the jet stream. We can always blame the jet stream for big weather.

It usually has a wavy, curvy path, trending northward in one part of the world, then turning a corner and sliding southward, only to head north again downstream.

You start getting into problems with the jet streams curves, those northward and southward excursions, when they get really intense, going way, way north, then way, way south and so on.

This is called an "amplified" pattern.  Think of it this way: When sound is amplified, it's loud. When the jet stream pattern is amplified, that means the weather is loud.

So you get we had in the United States and elsewhere in the world this week. The amplified jet stream was able to grab a strong weather disturbance from way up near the Arctic, and slam it down way south into the Carolinas.

Amazingly, this is not Buffalo, New York in January
but Gilbert, South Carolina yesterday, November 1.
Photo by Tom Dominick of The State newspaper.  

That's why it snowed there. Had the jet stream not been so extreme, not so amplified, and more normal, there would probably have been a run of the mill cool spell near the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.

And if anything happened in the Carolinas, it would have been a normal autumn rainfall.

That amplified jet stream then curves way, way north off the East Coast, and that is, in part, why there's such a strong storm hitting Maine today.

Elsewhere in the northern hemisphere, the jet stream is also pretty amplified. It's contributing to a strange week of weather in Europe, including record late season warmth from Finland to Britain,
a very odd, extreme early season ice storm in Bulgaria, and a reported damaging tornado today in Leicestershire, England. 

There's no rest for the weary, either. It looks like some fairly strong storm systems will keep crossing the nation over the next two weeks. Long range forecasts are notoriously dicey, so I can't really give you details on how those storms over the next couple of weeks will play out.

We also have the inevitable question about this amplified jet stream I've been talking about: Does it have anything to do with global warming?

The answer is: Maybe.

The theory is that since the Arctic is warming faster than places near the Equator, the temperature difference between the tropics and the Arctic isn't as great as it once was. A well-behaved jet stream depends on this contrast of temperatures between the North and the South.

If the contrast isn't as great as it once was, that means the jet stream has more room to get "wavy" or amplified, so as the planet warms, we get more extreme weather.

Scientists still disagree on whether this aspect of climate change is real.  The consensus, by my reading, seems to be that global warming is influencing the jet stream, but so are other things. The bottom line is this particular aspect of the science is not well understood. It needs more work.

There's studies going on to determine if this potential effect of climate change, the wacky jet stream, is actually happening, or just a false lead or illusion.

Stay tuned on that one. Meanwhile, enjoy the big storms. Or at least try to.

Photos Starting To Pop Up From Epic Southeast Ice Storm

Here are some photos that have appeared on social media today from that immense ice storm in the Southeast. I'm sure there are more dramatic ones to come:

From WBTV, North Carolina

From WJBF, Augusta, Ga.

From Twitter from @beerandracing, shows scene in Raleigh,  N.C.

Splitting tree near Charleston, S.C. via Twitter, @ktch3400