Tropical Storm Fay Is Vermont's Friend

Vermont is rarely hit by any kind of tropical system.

Visible satellite photo showing Tropical Storm Fay
moving northward just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. 

But when the Green Mountain State is hit by a tropical storm or depression or hurricane, it's pretty much always had news.

In the topsy-turvy year of 2020, though, Tropical Storm Fay, on balance, looks like it will help Vermont much more than it will hurt.

Since Fay is a tropical storm, which are always very wet and windy, the storm will be bad news for some people, though.

WHERE IT'S AT AND GOING

As of 8 a.m this morning, Tropical Storm Fay had top winds of 50 mph, mostly east of its center.It was about 100 miles or so south of the southern tip of New Jersey.

Tropical Storm Fay was northbound as of early this morning, and will continue in that direction as it picks up forward speed. It'll scrape past New Jersey, possibly even making landfall there.  If not, it will come ashore not far from New York City tonight

At this point, forecasts take Tropical Storm Fay up the Hudson River Valley into either eastern New York or western Vermont.  The official 5 a.m. Friday National Hurricane Center forecast track had Fay pretty much sitting right over my house in St. Albans, Vermont at around 2 p.m. Saturday. It will then head into Quebec.

I'm delighted this could happen. So are my gardens.  We welcome the prospect of a potential soaking.

Of course, by the time, Fay hits Vermont or nearby, it will have been downgraded to a tropical depression and it will be starting to transition to a non-tropical system.

If Fay is still at tropical storm strength by the time it hits Vermont, it will only be the fourth tropical storm known to have its center pass over somewhere in the Green Mountain State.

Two of those past tropical systems were devastating and deadly. Tropical Storm Irene killed at least six Vermonters and pretty much tied with 1927 as creating the worst flood in the state's history.

The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 also passed through Vermont, causing serious flooding and leveling tracts of forests with its winds. The 1938 storm decimated the maple sugar industry for years afterward.

FAY IS NOT MEAN LIKE THE OTHERS

Fay's effects will be far, far, less serious in Vermont than Irene or the 1938 storm.

Here's why:

1. It's weak, so doesn't have the power to unleash widespread torrential rains or damaging winds.  Wind gusts for almost all of us should stay below 35 mph. A few favored areas, perhaps including some of the western slopes of the Green Mountains, could see gusts as high as 45 mph.

2. It's fast. Fay will be rocketing northward and will only affect directly affect Vermont for several hours.  It might rain torrentially at times, but the rain won't last long enough to cause serious flooding. Some favored spots might get extra rain, causing local stream flooding, road washouts and urban flooding, but this is certainly no Irene.

3. Vermont is dry. Parts of the state are in a drought. That's why I'm liking Fay so much.  It could put a good dent in the dry conditions we have been having.

The thing I worry about most from Fay is not too much rain, but too little. Forecast tracks for Fay keep pushing it further west.  The heaviest rain with northbound tropical storms in the Northeast is to the west of their track.

If Fay goes up through New York State instead of through Vermont, we could miss out on the heaviest rain.   Right now, forecasts call for one to two inches of rain from Fay in Vermont, with locally higher amounts.

More rain and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday could offer additional help with the dry conditions.

Fay will also help break the heat somewhat.  We have one more hot day today, but the clouds and precipitation with Fay, and another disturbance approaching from the west, will encourage clouds, which will hold daytime temperatures down a little. It will still be miserably humid though, at least into Monday.

Some clouds from Fay will move northward across Vermont this afternoon, and those might actually temper the heat a little in southern  Vermont  It will still be blazing up north, though.

FAY'S EFFECTS ELSEWHERE

It isn't all fun and games with Tropical Storm Fay.  Closer to its landfall, Fay could easily dump enough rain to cause flooding. Flash flood watches are up for New Jersey, western Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, far eastern Pennslyvania  and the Hudson River Valley and surrounding areas from Saratoga Springs south to New York City.

Some of the downpours with Fay are pretty intense.  Ocean City, Maryland had about 1.5 inches of rain in one hour, and 2.75 inches within just two hours, for instance.

Winds along some coastal areas could gust to 55 mph. Coastal flooding is likely to be minor.

Tropical storms like Fay can spin up tornadoes, so some are possible later today and tonight in and near Long Island, New York parts of far southern New England, the  New York City metro area and coastal New Jersey.

And You Thought The Mother's Day Weekend Snow In Vermont Was Weird

Traffic cam of Interstate 80 in Laramie, Wyoming. Yes, this was
taken this morning, June 9

It's June 9. Practically summer.

Imagine waking up to this on your morning weather report:

Winter storm warning....Heavy wet snow. Additional accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, Total accumulations of 5 to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph....Impacts: Some power lines and numerous tree branches will be down. Roads will be slushy and snowcapped, and icy in spots especially over bridges."

That was the state of affairs in Laramie Wyoming this morning, as very odd weather continues to hit the West and parts of the northern Plains.

Snow fell from Washington to Montana and south to Colorado over the past couple of days.  Snowfalls in the Rocky Mountains happen almost yearly in June, but this one is more extreme than usual, that's for sure.

Ski resorts in much of Colorado had fresh powder this morning. Snow plows were clearing slush and ice of Interstate 70 in Loveland Pass, Colorado, west of Denver.

This is all part of a very stormy pattern over the north central United States. The remnants of Cristobol continue moving through the Midwest toward the western Great Lakes and Canada, carrying a flood threat with it.

A separate storm that will eventually merge with former Cristobal is creating an odd wind storm in Kansas and Nebraska. Winter and early spring storms often carry widespread 60 to 70 mph wind gusts with them, but those storms don't happen in June.

This one IS  happening in June with forecasted wind gusts in that 60-75 mph range. Leafless trees in the winter don't fall as easily as ones with leaves.  The leaves act like little sails in strong winds, which will  pull down a lot of branches and trees in the central Plains today.

By the way, a few tornadoes are also likely today in parts of eastern Kansas and Nebraska, and in Illinois and surrounding states.

Back in Laramie, meanwhile winter redux will come to an abrupt end later this morning. They're expecting a high temperture of 57 degrees there today under increasing sunshine.  That's still chilly for this time of year - normal highs this time of year in Laramie are around 70 degrees - but at least the snow will melt quickly.

Some videos:

Nighttime video of snow laden trees and power flashes from  branches falling on lines in or near Laramie:



In a rather high elevation spot in Colorado this morning:

Interesting Big Storms Around, But Vermont Mostly Spared

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Harold smashed into parts of Vanuatu
in the South Pacific Sunday and Monday 

The past day or so, and the forecast, calls for a few odd - and strong - storm systems both in the United States and elsewhere, especially in the South Pacific.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD

The nation of Vanuatu in the South Pacific comprises about 80 islands stretched out over 800 miles. Part of that island chain was hit by an immense hurricane named Tropical Cyclone Harold.

Hurricanes are called tropical cyclones in that part of the world and this was an extreme one.

Tropical storm Harold hit Vanuatu's largest island with winds estimated at 145 mph.  According to the Category 6 blog, the island has about 40,000 residents, mostly scattered in small villages across the island.

Harold had earlier killed 27 people in the Solomon Islands, the Weather Channel reports.

The coronavirus pandemic is going to complicate relief efforts in Vanuatu.  The island nation had not yet reported any cases of Covid-19, thanks in large part to restrictions at international borders and on tourism.

However, relief workers won't be allowed to come to Vanuatu to assist, unless they do a 14-day quarantine first, notes the Weather Channel. The economic and social toll of the pandemic will probably also interfere with relief efforts.

Harold is still out there, and is threatening the island nations of Fiji and Tongo.

BLIZZARDY MAINE?

A winter storm watch is up for western and central, and parts of northern Maine Thursday into Friday for what could be a doozy of a storm.

A storm system and cold front will move through New England Thursday, including here in Vermont.  The good dynamics with this storm will create plenty of showers, gusty winds, maybe a rumble of thunder and then some snow showers here in the Green Mountain State Thursday and Friday.

Once the storm gets to the Maine coast, Pow! It looks like it will blow up rapidly into a late blooming nor'easter.  Even the normally staid meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine are wowed with the storm's potential.

"This is an impressive winter storm for any winter month, let along mid-April," they wrote in this morning's forecast discussion.

The storm will be pretty compact, at least at first, so the big storminess will focus mostly on Maine, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and the far southeastern corner of Quebec.

Maine and adjacent Quebec will be on the colder northwest side of the storm. Current forecasts call for a good seven to 10 inches of heavy, wet snow, along with strong winds. If that comes to pass, there will certainly be some nasty power outages in that neck of the woods.  Luckily the storm won't hang around for a long time, so conditions in Maine will start to improve later Friday.

Even so such a nasty winter storm is a bit of a shock to the system in April, even by Maine standards.

SOGGY S. CALIFORNIA

The winter rainy season in southern California is usually ending by now, but don't tell that to residents down there now. Flood watches are up for southern and southeasternn California, mostly south and east of Los Angeles.

A slow moving storm will dump heavy showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the usually dry deserts inland from the southern California coast. Those storms could easily cause some flash flooding.

Los Angeles got into the act yesterday with 1.22 inches of rain, the most for that date on record. It's a cold storm, so winter storm warnings are up for the mountains east of the city.

Forecasters are carefully watching what this storm does once it ejects out into the southern Plains of the United States toward Saturday.  If conditions come together right, the storm could produce a nasty tornado outbreak in the Southeast.

However, forecasting models are all over the place with this system, so nobody yet knows if the storm will turn into a monster or a nothing burger once it gets out into the south and middle of the nation.

Seems Like There's Flooding Everywhere This Winter

Evacuations as the Pearl River around Jackson, Mississippi continue
rising. Photo via the Jackson Clarion-Ledget

The climate change experts say that as the world warms, rainfall events will become more and more extreme in many parts of the world

That seems to be already happening.  It seems like there were lots and lots of floods around the world in the past couple of years. This year seems to be starting on an even worse footing.

You can't point and yell "Climate change!" at every odd or big time weather event, but this spate of flooding, various videos of which you will see below, are certainly consistent with climate change.

So let's wander around the flood zones.

The southeastern third of the United States has had repeated bouts of flooding since January.  Some places have had four times the normal amount of rain for this point in the year. Not surprisingly, the flooding has been intense.

The rain has temporarily let up in the South, but the flooding continues. In Jackson, Mississippi, the Pearl River is likely to reach its third highest level on record, flooding several neighborhoods and part of the downtown.

During the height of last week's floods, some of the worst of it was in hilly and mountainous parts of Kentucky and Tennessee.

Here's a mobile home being swept away in Harlan, Kentucky:



Australia spent the first half of the summer burning down. Then torrential rains hit. The good news is all that record breaking rainfall put out the fires. But now, many of the same areas that were hit by fires are now having serious flooding. Here's just one news dispatch from Australia this past week:


In Great Britain a week ago, a storm  dubbed Ciara caused widespread havoc, including the third destructive flood in West Yorkshire in eight years.  This was even before Storm Dennis caused even more havoc, which deserves its own post in this blog, which you will see coming in a day or two. (That story is still breaking as I write this Sunday morning).



That British flooding also did this to a riverside building:



It's not just coming from the rivers in Great Britain.  Watch this storm surge from Storm Ciara in New Brighton:



Now on to the Pacific Northwest.

Pendleton, Oregon, in the northeastern part of that state, is normally pretty dry. The Cascade Mountains well to the west block the flow of moisture off the Pacific Ocean, so they only get about 14 inches of rain per year. You don't associate Pendleton with heavy rain and flooding.

However, this year, the firehose of moisture off the Pacific is so extensive that Pendleton just experienced some  serious flooding:



Closer to the Pacific Coast, heavy rains over the past month have caused a lot of flooding. Winters are normally really wet west of the Cascades, but this year has been ridiculous.  However, rainfall in the West has been oddly variable.

San Francisco, California usually gets a fair share of rain in February.  This year, for only the second time on record, it doesn't look like it will rain in February at all. They want some of that rain a few hundred miles to the north, and Washington State would love to send some of their rain south.

It ain't happening.

Meanwhile, flooding along the Snohomish River stacked a massive logjam against a major highway bridge in Everett, Washington.  It was eventually cleared out, but only after a lot of effort. You can see why from this video:

Floods, Snow, Stupidity, More: Recent Wild Weather Videos

Aftermath of severe floods and mudslides in Brazil.
See video in this post. 

As I always say, pretty much everybody has a camera in their pocket, so we get all kinds of new perspectives on everything, including extreme weather.

As I do from time to time, I highlight some of these videos of wild weather going on in the world currently.  

The first one is part of a tragedy.  Massive floods and mudslides have hit parts of Brazil, killing at least 50 people. This video is very much reminiscent of the Ellicott City, Maryland flash flood videos of 2016 and 2018 in which people are trapped in a restaurant as a torrent sweeps cars and pretty much everything else away through the downtown.

This one is in the city of Belo Horizonte, Brazil:


Here's a flash flood hitting Narok, Kenya this past week. Would you cross this bridge in this weather?



St. John's Newfoundland has largely recovered from that massive blizzard earlier this month, but as you can imagine, there's still LOTS of snow on the ground.

Let's take a trip to the St. John's Costco, via this web cam video to pick up supplies. The middle segment of the video is something. Like driving at the bottom of a canyon:



The opposite end of Canada has gotten an oddly huge amount of snow, too.  Not nearly as much as Newfoundland, but for the Vancouver, Canada area, it's incredible. They've had about 14 inches of snow this month, compared to a normal of about four inches.

The snow there typically melts fast and doesn't stick around, but this time, it did. The next clip is from the famous Chilliwack, British Columbia security camera, which seems to catch an incredible number of odd happenings.

This clip is of all the people there who can't drive in the snow. And you thought it was bad here in Vermont! Watch:

Quick Friday Evening Vermont Storm Update

The latest ice forecast map from the National Weather Service in
South Burlington, issued this afternoon. An inch of very damaging
ice is likely in northern New York. In northern Vermont, ice could
get to near a half inch, especially in the far northern Champlain Valley.
This would definitely lead to some damage just not as bad as NY.

As always with big storms, there are a few adjustments and updates to the forecast for our upcoming nasty storm.

The ice looks like it'll be at its worst in far northern New York, where an ice storm warning is now in effect from Saturday evening through early Sunday afternoon.

There, the rain is likely to come down harder than in Vermont, and the subfreezing temperatures might also last a bit longer in that area. Ice accumulation in the ice storm warning area should come out to be about an inch thick.

That's enough to cause really bad damage to trees and power lines.  Long lasting power outages are likely in this area. Southern Quebec and parts of Ontario are in for the same thing, so it will be totally awful there, too.

In northern Vermont, there's a slightly less dire but still serious ice forecast. Closest to the Canadian border, in northern Grand Isle and Franklin counties, ice is now expected to thicken up to between a quarter to a half inch of ice.

That much  ice would still bring down a lot of trees and power lines and cause pretty widespread outages. But on the bright side, it won't be as bad as 1998, and, if the forecast comes true, the tree damage won't be super devastating, just kinda bad.  It probably won't look like the wholesale disaster zone the way the trees did in 1998.  Be prepared for a lot of yard cleanup with this is over, though.

Click on this map and the ice storm map above to make them bigger
and easier to read. More than 2.5 inches of rain and freezing rain
is likely in northwestern New York, which is an incredible amount
for January. Northern Vermont is getting more than
 an inch of precip, which is still a lot for this time of year. 

In Chittenden, Orleans and Essex counties, there's going to be ice accumulation later Saturday night and Sunday morning, but damage should be relatively light, again, if the forecast comes true.

If it turns a little colder than expected or rain is a little heavier than expected, the ice storm effects could be worse than I'm envisioning here.

Needless to say, road conditions wherever there is freezing rain will be atrocious.

Pretty much all of the forecasted icy areas in Vermont are under a winter weather advisory. But I'm going to advise a little extra on this advisory.

Most winter weather advisories in Vermont tend to be taken by the public as no big deal. Just kind of nuisance winter weather. This storm will go beyond nuisance and be a real problem.

The only main reason I can see that there's not a more dire ice storm warning in Vermont is because the criteria for an ice storm warning is that most of the area affected will have at least a half an inch of ice or more.  It doesn't look like northern Vermont will quite reach that criteria, although a few spots, especially the far northern Champlain Valley will probably see around a half of ice or a little more.

Flooding is still a good bet, too.  Forecasts call for minor to as much as moderate flooding along parts of the Winooski and Mad rivers and the Otter Creek.  This won't be as bad as the Halloween storm of 2019, but of course you would be stupid to drive into any flooded road.

Flood watches are up for the northern two thirds of Vermont, except right along the Canadian border where the already mentioned ice will build up.

As you well know, all this is subject to change as more data comes in. I'll update again Saturday morning, and again as needed as the storm progresses.

REST OF THE NATION:

As expected, severe thunderstorms and probably some tornadoes have been bubbling up, mostly in Oklahoma and Texas.  These will continue to expand and intensify overnight.  Tornadoes and very severe thunderstorms are especially dangerous at night. You don't see them coming and people are sleeping and don't get warnings.

An expansive area of freezing rain was beginning to blossom from western Oklahoma all the way up toward the Great Lakes.  If anything, some of that ice storm could be worse than what we're getting

Also, flood watches remain up for a huge area of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and of course, part of our region.

Top Vermont Weather Events Of The Decade 2010a

An iconic, old Vermont house destroyed by Tropicql Storm
Irene in 2011.

I'm a little late to the game here, given it's a week into the new year, but here's my list of Vermont's top 10 weather events of the decade that just ended at basically one minute before midnight, December 31, 2019.

I'm interested to see what people will think of my ranking.  My list is surely colored by personal experience, where I was living in that decade in northwestern Vermont, and what made an impression on me.

So, here are my nominees and what happened during those rather momentous wather events.

1. Tropical Storm Irene Flood Disaster, August 28-29, 2011

Hurricane Irene, not the worst hurricane ever as it came ashore at Cape Lookout, North Carolina with top winds of 85 mph.

But as it made its way northward the next day, with its huge slug of wet air into New England, it unleashed torrential downpours on an already sodden Vermont, unleashing the state's worst weather disaster since the Great Flood of 1927.

In a few places, it was as bad or worse than 1927. For instance, my late father who was still around in 2011 an a lifelong resident of West Rutland,  said Irene's flood crest was a little lower in town than in 1927, but the Otter Creek in nearby Center Rutland was higher than in 1927.

By the time in reached Vermont and New Hampshire, Irene was "downgraded" to a tropical storm.  However, tropical systems moving inland often create serious floods. That was the case here.

Irene killed six Vermonters, which is terrible, of course. Yet in these times, weather warnings from the National Weather Service and elsewhere are terrific. This storm was warned well in advance, with strongly worded statements from the NWS.  Which left us a silver lining: People got out of the way, and the death toll was so much less than the 84 deaths in Vermont the 1927 caused.

Farmstand owners and workers and volunteers frantically try to save
pumpkins and other merchanes amid rapidlyu rising
Mad River waters in Waitsfield, Vermont during Tropical
Storm Irene, Auguist 28, 2011.

The statistics, courtesy of Vermont Businss Magazine,  are staggering.  More than 500 miles of state highways and 200 state bridges were wrecked. It cost about 200 million to fix that damage

More than 2,000 municipal road segments were damaged, as were 280 town bridges and 960 culverts.   In the immediate aftermath of the storm, thirteen towns were without passable roads leading in and out of town.

The resilience of Vermonters shined bright during and immediately after the disaster. Volunteers arrived in droves to the hardest hit towns and mucked out muddy basements, cleaned houses, cleared debris, and offered food, money, supplies and moral support in droves.

By the time Vermont's all important fall foliage season arrived about six weeks after Irene, most roads were open, and much of the state looked like it was back to its old self, even as flood victims quietly continued trying to pick up the pieces.

One terrific example of this came on the Rachel Maddow show just under three weeks after Irene.  She showed what wiped-out Route 4 in Mendon looked like the immediate aftermath of Irene, and what a marvelous job construction crews did rebuilding it in less than three weeks.

2. Spring Flooding April-June, 2011

Lamoille River floodwaters cascade through trees near Fairfax,
Vermont during severe flooding in April, 2011.

The year 2011 was really the year of the flood in Vermont. A few months before Irene, in February and March, snow lay deep in Vermont, especially in higher elevations.

A  record large snowstorm in early March didn't help.  Water content in the snow was exceptionally high.

Minor flooding began in late March, and waxed and waned throughout the spring. On Vermont rivers, the worst flooding came on April 26-27 and on May 26 and 27.  Meanwhile, through all this, Lake Champlain reached record, destructive flood levels. More on that in a minute.

The first high flood, on April 26-27, was part of the same storm system that caused arguably the nation's worst tornado outbreak on record in the southeastern third of the nation.

Here, unseasonable waves of thunderstorms, some borderline severe, dumped heavy rain atop of snow that was still deep in the higher elevations. The melting was fast because of mild temperatures in the 50s and 60s. By early morning on April 27, the Lamoille River reached its fourth highest level on record, causing damaging floods along the river from above Johnson down through Milton.

The second wave of flooding struck as part of a severe weather outbreak on May 26-27.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington described the storms as a parade of mini-super cells that trecked across northern New York and through central and northern Vermont.

The storms prompted some tornado warnings in central Vermont, but none were known to have touched down. Baseball sized hail was reported at Duxbury,

Overnight on the 26th, the storms jelled into a train of storms that dumped up to seven inches of rain on central Vermont. This led to serious flooding, especially in the Winooski River Valley from Plainfield all the way to Lake Champlain.  Barre and Montpelier were especially hard hit, with numerous buildings damaged and roads wiped out.

Five to seven inches of rain fell on saturated soil in a band from around Barre to near St. Johnsbury, causing the extensive floods.

The series of floods inland over Vermont and New York during the spring of 2011 caused easily the worst flood on record for Lake Champlain.

At Burlington, Lake Champlain reached a record crest of 103.2 feet on May 6, 2011 easily exceeding the previous record of 102.1 feet in 1869.  

Camps destroyed by record Lake Champain flooding in May, 2011.

An estimated 500 Vermont homes were severely damaged by the flooding.  Extensive damage was reported in New York and especially southern Quebec.

In Quebec, the Richelieu River is the main outlet for Lake Champlain.  With the lake at record high levels, that river inevitably reached record high levels, too, flooding hundreds of homes.

Lake Champlain is a pretty big lake, so strong winds can stir up some big waves. Much of the destruction was caused by large, battering waves striking the shore.

The spring flooding helped set the stage for Irene a few months later.  The soil was still very soggy by June, and continued rains during the summer kept it that way. Then Irene's rains came.

Flood, Wind Storm October 31-November 1, 2019

Winooski River in Winooski, Vermont in high flood,
November 1, 2019.

This was probably Vermont's most destructive storm since Tropical Storm Irene.  After a very rainy October that saturated soils, a strong storm passed northeastward across the eastern Great Lakes into Quebec.  

This put Vermont into the warm side of the storm, the side in which deep tropical moisture rode northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

On Halloween night, the storm dumped three to five inches of rain across the northern half of Vermont in just a few hours, creating flash floods that damaged or destroyed dozens of culverts and road segments. Many homes were damaged as well.

In Burlington, 3.30 inches of rain fell as temperatures reached a record high of 71 degrees late in the evening of October 31.  Streets flooded, stalling cars. A landslide off Riverside Avenue nearly took a couple buildings with it.

Sections of two rivers in northern Vermont - the Lamoille and Missisquoi - reached record crests, flooding more buildings.

Behind the storm on November 1, strong west winds gusting as high as 65 mph cut power to?????  homes and caused damaged to roofs, other structures and trees.

3. March, 2017 Pi Day Storm 

Stuck cars amid near zero visibility during the Pi Day blizzard
of March 14, 2017.

An easy contender for one of the most intense snowstorms in Vermont history hit on March 14, 2017.

 The so-called Pi Day Storm (because it hit on Pi (3.14) dumped more than 30  inches of snow in parts of northwestern Vermont and New York.

Burlington's snow total reached 30.4 inches, which is the second deepest snowstorm on record and easily the biggest March snowstorm on record for the Queen City.

During the afternoon of March 14, snow fell at the rate of up to five inches per hour.  A foot of snow fell in Burlington in just over four hours. People who were foolhardy enough to go to work that morning pretty much could not drive home that late afternoon.

Thankfully, the storm was well-forecast by the National Weather Service, so most people had hunkered down at home to wait the storm out.

Also, the snow was relatively dry and powdery, so there were no issues with power lines and trees.

Even so, the western half of the state basically shut down during the blizzard.

4. May 2013 Flood and Snow, With More flooding June, July 2013

If you look  carefully you can see a swimming pool  beneath muddy
flash flood water on July 4, 2013. This storm was toward
the end of a nearly two-month siege of heavy rain
and flooding in Vermont. 

Vermont got locked into an incredibly wet pattern in mid-May of 2013, and it turned out to be something we couldn't shake until we got well into July.

The result was repeated flash floods and incredibly wet soil conditions that took a toll on farming throughout the state.

The rains came around the third week in May. Burlington received a whopping 7.47 inches of rain in the six days ending May 26. That's twice the normal amount for the entire month. Rainfall of that intensity was common in the northern half of the state during this period.

On May 21 through 23, the heavy rain came in the form of thunderstorms, some of which formed into a train of repeated storms over north-central Vermont.

The result was a swath of flash flood damage in northwestern Vermont, especially around Underhill and Cambridge.

On May 25, unusually cold air swept in and changed rain to snow at mid and high elevations, leading to some incredible snow totals for so late in the season. It was Memorial Day weekend, after all.

The summit of Whiteface Mountain, New York was buried beneath 30 inches of snow. In Vermont, Jay Peak had 18 inches, and the summit of Mount Mansfield had 13.2 inches.  At lower elevations in Vermont, Walden reported six inches,  Greensboro, 4.5 inches, Topsham, 3.5 inches and Troy, two inches.

Repeated flash flooding continued through June and into early July.  The floods would hit individual towns here and there through the period as the rest of the state endured continued soggy conditions.

In late June, a torrential thunderstorm flooded a several mile stretch of southbound Interstate 89 in Williston and Richmond and caused other property damage in northwestern Vermont.

Huntington was hit hard on July 3 On July 4, more flash flooding caused additional extensive damage, especially to local roads in an area centered around Jericho, Underhill and Richmond.

Total rainfall in June at Burlington amounted to 9.86 inches, which was just 0.06 inches shy of the wettest June on record. Essex Junction reporte 10.48 inches for the month.

5. July 4, 2012 Storms

Flooding in Burlington, Vermont after a very severe thunderstorm
on July 4, 2012.

Two severe storm complexes moved southeastward across parts of Vermont on the afternoon and evening of July 4 causing widespread wind damage and some flash flooding.

A third storm, a supercell, caused damage in northwestern New York that afternoon.

In Vermont, the first storm complex of the day formed near the Quebec border just north of Jay Peak and moved into the Northeast Kingdom during the mid-afternoon.

Strong straight line winds caused lots of tree damage throughout much of that area. Winds gusted to 70 mph in Walden.

The second, more serious storm complex formed southwest of Montreal and traveled southwestward down the Champlain Valley. The storms arrived just before planned fireworks festivities and other events, sending people scrambling for cover. Luckily, storm warnings were both timely and strongly worded, so no serious injuries were reported.

The storms did pack probably the strongest punch for a storm since the extreme severe storm outbreak and Colchester EF-2 tornado of 1983.  Winds hit 75 mph at Diamond Island, 70 mph in Colchester and 63 mph in Burlington.

There was widespread tree and power line damage. The storm produced intense rains. That caused flash flooding that damaged several buildings in and near downtown Burlington and stranded some cars. Nearly 1.4 inches of rain fell in Burlington in less than an hour.

6. December, 2014 Snow

A very wet, heavy and deep snowstorm struck Vermont in mid-December dumped six to 20 inches of snow that was basically the consistency of wet cement.  Damage was especially heavy in parts of Rutland County and the Champlain Valley.

The storm was considered by some the most destructive to Vermont's power lines since either Tropical Storm Irene or the Great Ice Storm of 1998.

7. Southwest Vermont Supercell, May, 2014

This is likely one of the most damaging single thunderstorm on record in Vermont (Outbreaks of many thunderstorms on the same day across Vermont were likely costlier).

The supercell thunderstorm developed in the southeastern Adirondacks around 2:30 p.m and barreled southeastward across Addison and Rutland counties before weakening in southeastern Vermont tha evening.

The storm produced a roughly three to four mile wide, 40 to 50 mile long stripe of hail and wind damage, with wind gusts to 74 mph near Bridport and very damaging hail, some golf ball sized or larger, especially in and around Rutland and Proctor.

8. Hot March, 2012

Vermont was affecting in what was very likely the nation's biggest March heat wave. The record heat extended from the northern Plains to the East Coast and on up into southeastern Canada.

Temperatures were as high as 84 in Montpelier, which tied the statewide record high for the month of March. It was 83  in Springfield and Union Village Dam. It wss 81 degrees up in the Northeast Kingdom in St. Johnsbury

Burlington had daily highs of 76. 79.80,81 and 81 on March 18-22. The month was a whopping 12.6 degrees above normal.

9. Hot February, 2017

Unprecedented springlike heat reached Vermont in late February, 2017 establishing some incredible new monthly records. On February 25, Burlington reached 72 degrees, beating the monthly record by a full nine degrees. (That record had been set just two days earlier.).  The 72 in both Burlington and Bennington established a new statewide record high for February.

10. Cold February, 2015

Winters have trended mild most of the time in Vermont over the past decade. However, a big exception was February, 2015.

Burlington ended the month 13.9 degrees colder than normal, enough to be the ?/coldest February on record. Sixteen of the 28 days were below zero.

Also Rans

There are other contenders for the top 10 weather events of the decade. Some that come to mind are the record hot summer of 2018, that killed six Vermonters. That's the one that maybe really should have been on the list.

Other biggies are the March 6-7 storm of 2011, which I briefly mentioned. It caused some flooding with heavy rain, which turned to heavy snow to the tune of two feet in northern Vermont.

Others include a severe storm outbreak in May, 2012 which included one tornado; dense smoke in Vermont on May 31, 2010 due to Quebec wildfires; Burlington's deepest single snowstorm, 33.1 inches as the decade opened on Jan 2-3, 2010; destructive ice jams and flooding, in January, 2018; severe thunderstorms and wind damage on July 8, 2014; and the supercells in northwestern Vermont and severe thunderstorms elsewhere on May 4, 2018.

Still Watching Dangerous Weekend Storm In Eastern U.S.

Forecast national map for Saturday. Note the very
strong high pressure off the East Coast pumping in
lots of very warm, wet air from the Gulf of Mexico. Storm shown
centered over Arksans will produce severe storms
and tornadoes south and east of it and ice to its northwest.
The storm moves into our area Saturday and especially
Sunday, with a risk of heavy ice or rain, and
possibly snow. 

Ingredients continue to come together for a dangerous storm in much of the eastern United States Friday through Sunday.

While forecasts will undoubtedly change somewhat as more updated data comes in, here's a quick broad brush of what the nation should expect, followed by effects here in Vermont.

Friday:  A line of severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes develops in eastern Oklahoma and Texas and moves into Arkansas and Louisiana. Strong, damaging thunderstorms and a few tornadoes along this line.

Ahead of the squall line, a few supercells with possible tornadoes, might well develop, with the risk of a very big, strong tornado or two.

Heavy rain will develop in the Tennessee and Ohio valleys later in the day. There will be a freezing rain risk from about Nebraska to southern Wisconsin.

Saturday: The threat of severe storms and tornadoes will shift to the central Gulf Coast and lower Tennessee valley. Overall this two-day severe outbreak might resemble one of the stronger outbreaks more common in the spring and early summer.

Meanwhile, heavy rain and the threat of flooding will develop from the Gulf Coast through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and extend as far north as Michigan. There's a risk of a good amount of freezing rain in a broad band from Kansas, through Missouri, into northern Ilinois, Michigan and into Ontario.

Near record warmth will affect the East Coast.

Sunday: The heavy rain shifts to eastward a bit and then diminishes, except north. . Heavy precipitation moves into northern New York and northern New England, and southern Ontario and Quebec. These areas will turn colder and there is a risk of heavy icing in some of these areas. Another day of record warmth is likely along the immediate East Coast.

Lets look at the next few days in Vermont:

Today: Snow showers with a cold front. Sharply falling temperatures this afternoon with the snow showers could cause a flash freeze on roads.

Thursday: Quiet and cold.  Lows a few degrees either side of zero, highs in the teens. At night, south winds start blowing, becoming strong in the Champlain Valley.

Friday: Windy and warm, with patchy light rain. A little ice possible east of the Greens in the morning.

Saturday: Now we're getting into the meat of the storm.  It'll be warm, unless the cold front comes in sooner than forecast. A few record highs possible. Rain is likely, especially north.  Turning sharply colder, especially north and west Saturday night with possible mixed precipitation.

Sunday: A wild card, with a complex thermal profile and questions about the position of cold air. There's a risk of significant, damaging icing, especially north. If it's a little warmer than expected, rain could be heavy enough to produce flooding. If it's a little colder than now expected, more snow would work into northern areas.

Overall, it looks like one to two inches of rain and/or melted snow and ice will come down northern Vermont Sunday. That's a lot for January. Somewhat lesser amounts of precipitation will probably hit southern Vermont.

The bottom line is, we don't know exactly what will be falling from the sky Sunday, but I'd consider postponing travel. And pay attention to those iee forecasts. If we got a lot of ice, we could lose quite a few trees and power lines.  If the forecasts for ice become more certain, stock up on supplies during the warmer weather Saturday morning and afternoon.

Let's Go Back To Australia For More Weather Drama

A recent wildfire near Perth Stadium in western Australia. An incoming
heat wave will only make things worse.  Photo: AFP via BBC.

Summer has barely started in Australia, and the extremes are just coming fast and furious down under.

We've already mentioned the massive wildfires hitting large parts of the nation/continent. To make matters worse, a long lasting, intense heat wave is now moving into pretty much all of Australia, which is very roughly the size of the United States, excluding Alaska.

Perth in far western Australia, and Melbourne, in the southeast are expecting high temperatures of around 105 degrees this coming week, according to the BBC.  There's even a chance Australia could break the record for its all time hottest temperature, which is 123.3 degrees.

And there have been incredible thunderstorms, producing massive hailstones that have pummeled and wrecked countless cars, roofs and windows, and flash flooding that have quickly inundated neighborhoods. Some areas around Brisbane got as much as five inches of rain in a little more than an  hour.

Before you say that at least the storms are dropping rain to squelch all those wildfires, think again. The storms, intense as they are, have been quite localized, causing patches of severe damage, but not wetting down most of the landscape. So the fires burn on.

Image from the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
shows a big upward trend in that nation's temperatures.

Still, areas around Brisbane got a little drought relief from the storms, so that's a small area of good news in hot, burning Australia. However, areas in southeastern Australia below Brisbane with the most intense fires got little or no rain.

The incoming heat wave will also dry out any place that did manage to get some rain and hail, increasing the risk of wildfires.

If you think I've been harping on Australian heat and fires every winter (their summer), you're right. Like most of the rest of the world. Australia is heating up with climate change, so the summers are generally hotter there. That, in turn, helps make the bush fires, bigger, more intense and longer lasting.

Even if the heat and drought are briefly interrupted by thunderstorms, destructive as they may be, they're generally not enough to overcome the effects of the summer heat

Here's a hailstorm wrecking a roof of one Australian house in the past couple of days:



News report on the Brisbane storm. Mixed emotions, clearly. Happy for the drought-relieving rain, not so much for the flash flooding:



Meanwhile, in New Zealand, heavy rains caused this huge cliff to collapse. Hope nobody was standing beneath it!

September Weather: Vermont A Normal Island In A Really Abnormal U.S. Month

Still no frost at my St. Albans, Vermont house yet.
so I've still got some flowers as October begins
even though the leaves are changing and falling. 

September was a month of extremes across the United States, with winter weather in the northern Rockies, massive flooding in the middle of the nation and unprecedented late summer and early autumn heat in the South and Southeast.

Meanwhile, here in Vermont, we enjoyed a most pleasant weather for the most part, weather that was pretty much spot on normal for September.

The Green Mountain State spent September in the sweet spot.  Close enough to the heat dome in the South to keep the heaviest rain storms at bay, but far enough away to get some coolish, dry air from southern Canada.

We were too far east to get caught up in those midwestern storms, and way too far away for us to get any kind of weather that would remind you of winter.

Subjectively, this was easily one of my favorite Septembers in my 57 years living in Vermont. Rainfall was certainly adequate, but between those showers, we had a large number of days with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures. It ws just pleasant.

For stats, Burlington came in with a mean September temperature of 62.0, which was 1.5 degrees above normal. Rainfall was nearly spot on perfect, with 3.71 inches for the month, just 0.07 inches wetter than normal. A rounding error, basically.

There wasn't even that big a range in temperature during Burlington's September. The hottest day reached 83 degrees, the coolest morning was just 40 degrees.

Elsewhere in Vermont, September temperatures were at or just a smidge below normal. The Northeast Kingdom was a bit on the cool side. Like in Burlington,  precipitation was close to normal.

Temperatures in southern Vermont were also quite close to normal, but it was on the dry side down there. For instance, Springfield had only 1.27 inches of rain during the month, which was about 2.5 inches below normal.

As mentioned, other parts of the nation were wild. I'll cherry pick some spots as examples.

Dallas, Texas endured a September that averaged out at 85.5 degrees, or 7.5 degrees hotter than normal. Only one day in September there failed to reach 90 degrees.

Memphis, Tennessee had its hottest September on record, as did Evansville, Indiana, where temperatures reached 80 degrees each day of the month for the first time records started being kept there in 1897.

Atlanta, Georgia was just about nine degrees hotter than normal. The average high temperature in Macon, Georgia in September was 96.4 degrees. During the final week of the month, each day in Macon reached at least 97 degrees, with three of those breaking 100 degrees. Only 0.03 inches of rain fell there. They should have had more than 3.5 inches.

All the rain was instead in the middle of the nation. Peoria, Illinois, for instance had more than 7.5 inches of rain last month.

Actually, places like Montana didn't have all that cold a September until the final days of the month, with that record snowfall of up to four feet. This morning, the temperature was a wintry 5 degrees in Cut Bank, Montana.

The opening few days of October will bring more of the same. Record heat will continue in the South and East for the first few days of the month. All-time record October highs are expected today and tomorrow in some places.

Flood watches are up once again in a band stretching from New Mexico to Michigan.

And here in Vermont, there will be some weather action, but nothing too extreme. The oddest thing would be the chance of a few late season thunderstorms today. A few might even bring gusty winds and heavy downpours.

It'll be a little on the warm side today, and a little on the cool side tomorrow and on through the weekend. There will definitely be showers around on several of these days, but again, nothing scary.

Once we get into the cool season, weather tends to get more variable, so anytbing could happen durin the rest of October. But will Vermont remain in the relatively calm weather sweet spot? Only time will tell.

.....But Those Floods Are Anything BUT Normal

This aerial view shows many homes already flooded in Oklahoma
by the Arkansas River. Photo via Twitter from the Tulsa World newspaper.

Yesterday, I remarked upon our nation's busy tornado year. I said that as tragic as it has been, it's not that far from what is regarded as "normal," at least so far.

What's really, really abnormal this year is the flooding. I've been saying this since March, when the opening salvos of severe flooding hit the Midwest. Since then, it's only been getting worse and worse.

This is more and more reminding me of 1993, which is considered the epic, worst year of Midwest flooding. That year, broad areas of the middle of nation, basically from Wisconsin south and down along much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys, spend months in the spring and summer dealing with devastating floods.

So far this year, the flooding has been going on for more than two months and shows few signs of stopping. The Weather Channel reports 70-year-old earthen levees are just barely holding back the record high Arkansas River in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and parts of that city might flood.

In Fort Smith, Arkansas, the Arkansas River is expected to crest at a level four feet higher than the previous record high crest, set in 1945.

This same general areas, from Iowa down to Missouri and Oklahoma and Arkansas, can expect another three to six inches of rain in the next seven days, with locally higher amounts.

Some rivers have been above flood stage since March, and this forecast is sure to prolong this agony.

In Louisiana, officials expect to open the Morganza Spillway for only the third time in history, beause the Mississippi River remains so high, and is expected to be at major flood stage into early June at least.

The spillway, built in 1954, diverts excess Mississippi River floodwater onto an expanse of farmland. It's a last ditch effort as the water coming through the open spillway ends up in the Atchafalaya River to the west, which of course would worsen flooding there.

The last time the spillway was open, in 2011, it flooded about 4,600 square miles of rural Louisiana near the Atchafalaya River, says the Category 6 blog. So as you can see, there are no really great solutions to dealing with this large amount of water.

Flooding does seem to be becoming more frequent and serious in recent years and decades. Part of that has to do with land use. More parking lots, roofs, roads, houses, etc. mean water can't soak into the ground so much. So it runs off, worsening flooding.

Part of it has to do with climate change. Warmer air can hold more water vapor, and if the right kind of storm comes along, that extra water vapor gets released as extra heavy downpours, which makes floods worse than they otherwise would be.

After this week, it's unclear whether the relentless rains in the Midwest will finally taper off. The weather pattern is changing somewhat, which could cut down on the amount of rain drenching the middle of the nation.

Tornado Outbreak Escalated Wednesday On Annivesary Of Epic, Tragic Joplin Tornado

A lightning flash illuminates a huge tornado going through
Jefferson City, Missouri last night. Photo via Twitter by Jaclyn Morrow.

Monday was the anniversary of the 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado that killed 24 people and caused $2 billion in damage. That area was on high alert for a repeat: There was a high risk of more big tornadoes on Monday.  

That didn't fully pan out, luckily, as the tornadoes weren't as strong or as numerous as expected.

Luck ran out Wednesday elsewhere, though. On the ninth anniversary of an even worse tornado disaster, this one that destroyed much of Joplin, Missouri and killed 161 people, another giant twister touched down on the outskirts of Joplin Wednesday evening.

The good news is Wednesday night's tornado did not slam through the city of Joplin, sparing its surely freaked out residents. The bad news is the tornado hit other towns just north of Joplin,  killing at least three people. The parent supercell thunderstorm kept marauding northeastward from there, dropping more big tornadoes.

Those included a devastating one that hit Missouri's capital of Jefferson City. So far, we have reports of 20 injuries there and lots of damage. Houses have collapsed, roofs are gone from schools and other buildings in Jefferson City.

On top of all that, the Missouri River in Jefferson City is expected to crest at its highest level in 24 years,  which will flood some downtown streets.

Wednesday night's tornadoes are part of an ongoing series of severe weather that I talked about yesterday. There's no rest of the weary. Some more tornadoes are forecast in various locations in the middle of the nation daily through at least next Tuesday.

I imagine flooding in the middle of the country, already very bad, will worsen, too, with moderate to high risks of new flooding from heavy rain ongoing at least today through Saturday.  This is a long running disaster, with no signs of quitting.

Occasionally, this awful weather extends its tentacles outside the Midwest. Today, the Northeast is under the gun with the threat of severe weather, and even maybe a few tornadoes in Pennsylvania and New York, and parts of surrounding states.

Some of those storms that get going in New York could hold together by the time they reach western Vermont later today.  That means a couple places could see strong, gusty thunderstorm winds and maybe some small hail.

The severe threat in Vermont isn't nearly as high as it is in New York and Pennsylvania, but it's something to be watched. If you get any kind of severe thunderstorm warning later today, get inside a sturdy building and wait it out. The storms will be moving fast, so it won't last long.

Another dose of severe thunderstorms is likely Saturday, though those storms will go south of Vermont. We'll just get rain and maybe some rumbles of thunder.

Vermont Weather To Go From Wild To Mild, But For Rest Of Nation, Just The Opposite

A spring snowman in Peacham, Vermont today. Photo via
Twitter from Tim Scott Real Estate.

As expected, snow was falling in the higher elevations of northern New England, including here in Vermont.

Web cams from the ski areas all show snow covered slopes. According to National Weather Service reports this morning,
Greensboro and Woodford reported four inches. Danville, Vermont has seen 3.5 inches of new snow, with 3.3 inches on a hill above Ludlow; 2.5 inches in a high spot in Plainfield, and 2 inches at the 1,600 foot elevation in Marshfield.

After today, the weather in Vermont will improve through the rest of the week as we head toward near normal temperatures, we think, by the weekend. The weather will probably remain unsettled, but the snow will be over by Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile, big trouble is brewing in much of the rest of the nation. It's peak tornado season. We're in a bit of a lull with the severe storms, which is great, but that's not going to last. Things might get very bad in the middle of the country by the weekend.

It looks like there will be a multi-day outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes in the middle of the nation. It will begin Friday and last through at least Monday. Weather pundits are saying this could well be the most impressive and potentially dangerous weather pattern in the Plains since 2003 or 2004.

It could also possibly be the worst outbreak of severe weather for the nation as a whole since 2011 or 2012, but that remains to be seen. The potential is there.

Details of how this possible outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes plays out is TBA, but I think you will be seeing such weather on the news by the weekend.

Vermont Agency of Transportation web cam image along
Interstate 89 in Brookfield at mid-morning today. 

The stormy weather will also dump a lot of rain on the Mississippi River Valley and surrounding things. Not good, considering all the flooding that's been going on in the region since March.

Meanwhile, on the West Coast, an unseasonably cold and wet storm is expected to come in this week.  By this time of year, the kind of storm that brings inches of rain to the lowlands of northern California and feet of snow to the Sierra Nevada mountains is pretty much over.

But that's exactly what they're going to get. Several inches of rain could fall in northern California over the next week. Winter storm watches are already up for the Sierra Nevada above about 6,000 feet in elevation.

California already had a wet winter, and there's still plenty of snow still on the ground in the mountains to keep already full reservoirs filled to the top. I guess these storms are the icing on the cake.

All of the weather drama I've described above is all related to each other. A deep dip in the jet stream is about to carve itself out along the West Coast. That'll drive the big storms inland into California and Oregon.

Then, pieces of storm energy will eject through the Rockies into the Plains. This will draw warm, wet air northward into the Plains. This will also cause strong wind shear in the atmosphere. (Wind shear is  wind direction and speed changing with height, which is one necessary ingredient for tornado outbreaks.)

The dip in the jet stream out west will build a northward bulge in the jet stream in the East. That will be one way to keep the warm, wet air flowing into the potential tornado zone, and it will warm much of the eastern United States up to summertime levels.

But that warm outlook is super uncertain here in Vermont. We'll be on the northern edge of that northward bulge in the jet stream, which means we'll be close to the border between summer like air to the south and springtime chill to the north.

Weather disturbances will zip along this boundary, whipping it up and down like a rope. That makes it impossible to time out when it will rain in Vermont over the next week and when it won't rain. It also makes it almost impossible to tell more than a couple days in advance how warm or cold it will be coming up.

As usual, what will happen next with Vermont's weather is anybody's guess.

Macabre Effect Of Global Warming: Dead Bodies Emerging From Ice On Mount Everest

Because glaciers are melting, dead bodies of people who passed away
in climbing expeditions have been emerging from the glacier at this
high elevation camp on Mount Everest. Photo via BBC by
Doma Sherpa

Mount Everest, the world's highest mountain, is a deadly place.

More than 4,800 have climbed to the top of Mount Everest. Nearly 300 other people died trying, according to the BBC.

In most cases, the people who died were left there, because of the obvious danger of bringing the deceased off the mountain. From there, snow and ice would entombed the fatalities forever.

Or so we thought. As the BBC reports: 

"Because of global warming, the ice sheet and the glaciers are fast melting and the dead bodies that remained buried all these years are now becomeing exposed, said Ang Tshering Sherpa, former president of Nepal Mountaineering Association."

Another person who is a liason officer on Everest said he has personally retrieved about 10 bodies in recent years from different spots on the mountain and more are emerging lately.

While most of the bodies are appearing because of glacial melting on Everest, some are emerging because of natural movements in the Khumbu Glacier, which sometimes exposes long-deceased people.

Climate change is actually creating far bigger risks in the Himalayas than the macabre exposure of dead mountaineers on Mount Everest.  Melting glaciers over time threaten the water supply of perhaps a tenth or more of the world's population.

According to National Geographic:

"The Hindu Kush Himalaya encompass hundreds of the world's most iconic mountains, hold over 30,000 square miles of glacier ice - more than anywhere else in the world besides the poles - and sustain 240 million people in the peaks and valleys. The mountain ranges also cradle the headwaters of rivers like the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra that provide water to billions in the lowlands downstream."

Most of the snow in the highest elevations in much of the Himalayas actually comes during the summer. At that time of year, the monsoons that sometimes cause flooding in the low elevations to the south sneak up to the Himalayas, creating big summer snowstorms.

However, in general, the monsoons have been weakening, meaning less snow falls. That downward trend in snowfall is expected to continue with climate change, so snowfall in the high mountains will continue to decrease, says National Geographic.

Less snowfall eventually means less ice for the glaciers. And global warming threatens to increase melting of those glaciers. A double whammy.

Eventually, the fear is the glaciers will get so small that they'll reduce the amount of water feeding into rivers. These are the rivers that those billions of people rely upon.

On top of all that bad news, there's a shorter term danger, according to the National Geographic article.

Melting glaciers feed into glacial lakes. Rocks, dirt and debris typically hold these lakes back. If melting increases, the lakes will overwhelm these natural dams, sending walls of water into populated areas below.

All this is just another local, and very serious end result of climate change. I'm sure scientists will keep coming up with other reasons why this is all bad. I can't wait to find out more

Another Winter Throwback In Vermont; Much More Serious Threats Elsewhere in Nation

Sunshine tries to break through as snow falls in my St. Albans, Vermont
yard on Wednesday. It looks like a little more snow will fall tonight.

The never-ending winter of 2018-19 in Vermont marches on the best it can, despite the calendar saying we are well into spring and the strong sun trying with limited success to oust the cold.

Despite that bright sunshine, it was a cold Thursday. I cut short outdoor chores at my house in St. Albans, Vermont early last evening.

The sun felt nice enough when it was out, but the air was cold - only in the low to mid 30s. Winds gusting past 30 mph added a lot of chill to the air.

This morning, it's as cold as 8 degrees in Saranac Lake, New York, and Island Pond, Vermont. The "toasty" spots in the state were around 20 degrees. Not exactly spring-like, huh? 

And guess what? It's going to snow tonight!  Luckily, it won't be a big snowstorm at all by Vermont standards, or even April standards, but snow does frustrate this time of year. Ironically, the snow will be caused by a warm front.

Precipitation will break out as the warm front approaches late this afternoon and evening. Many of us will probably start off as rain. But the rain will initially be falling into dry air. That causes the air to cool, so the rain will change to snow.

Almost all of us, including the Champlain Valley banana belt, will get some snow out of this. The current thinking is we'll get an inch or so of slush in the valley, with one to three inches in north-central and northeastern Vermont tonight. A couple favored higher elevation places might clock in with four inches or so.

The good news is this is a warm front, after all, so we'll be left with a decent weekend. High temperatures will reach the 50s both Saturday and Sunday. That's not super warm for April, but it's OK, and we'll take it

The weather turns unsettled again next week. We're settling back into that pattern we had all winter, with storms crossing the country from the West Coast up to the Northeast, leaving trails of bad weather with them. 

Here in Vermont, that means rain, with some mountain snows each time a storm comes by. We'll have to watch this, as there's still a lot of snow in the mountains. If the rain is heavy, there could be some flood concerns. It's too early to tell on that one.

We know a slug of rain, with maybe a little mountain snow will come through Monday, with showers lingering into Tuesday. There's the potential for a relatively strong storm to pass through in about a week, so we'll see about that.

SEVERE WEATHER

Big area of the South, in yellow, under threat for severe weather Saturday.
A possibly even bigger area is possibly under the same threat Sunday. 

The increase in storminess across the nation, combined with the fact that it's spring, means the potential for severe weather and tornadoes is really ramping up now.

The first round of severe weather starts today in Texas, part of the storm system that will affect us here in Vermont by Monday.

A very big area of the nation, which includes much of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana Saturday, are in for large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes Saturday. 

An even bigger area encompassing a broad area along and a couple hundred miles either side of the central and southern Mississippi River is under the gun for this severe weather on Sunday.

Following that is a larger storm during the middle of next week in the middle of the nation. If that one shapes up like it appears it might, that would produce an even more intense round of severe weather and possible tornadoes in the southern Plains, and Mid-South next week.

After that, the parade of storms will probably continue with more threats of severe weather.

FLOODS INTENSIFY?

Especially the areas in pink, purple and red can expect heavy precipitation
over the next week or so. 

The northern and central Plains are still reeling from spring floods this year, and much of the Mississippi River, among many other major waterways are still in flood.

This upcoming parade of storms threatens to unleash another deluge on these areas. Up to two inches of precipitation are expected in just the next seven days in parts of the Plains. Then more storms will come after that.

Some of this might come down as snow, which further delays spring planting preparations. And that snow will melt, of course, leading to more water in already badly flooded areas.

Parts of the southern Mississippi Valley had heavy rain and flash flooding on Thursday. The storms will produce more heavy rain in that area over the next week or two.

I guess this is turning out to be the spring of our discontent.