Big Storm Winding Down Tonight In Vermont

It seemed like my house and truck in St. Albans, Vermont were gradually
 disappearing beneath deepening snow today despite my futile
efforts to keep shoveling. 

Given that the big storm we had today in Vermont was a nightmare to forecast, I'm impressed by how close the National Weather Service and other area meteorologists were able to predict accurately, well in advance, what would happen with this thing.

As forecast, the snow moved in from northwest to southeast starting early this morning and continuing through the day.

The band of heaviest snow came through in the late morning to mid afternoon, which several reports of one to three inch per hour snowfall rates.

As of 4 p.m. today, I measured 11 inches of new snow at my place in St. Albans, Vermont today. Combined with the 2.1 inches of snow that fell yesterday, the storm total so far is 13.1 inches. It was still snowing at that hour, though somewhat less intensely than it did earlier. The bottom line is I'll come very close to the roughly 18 inches of new snow the National Weather Service office in South Burlington said I would get.

As of 4:55 p.m., the National Weather Service in South Burlington reported 11.5 inches of snow just today so far, for a two day total of 14.1 inches. I guess the Champlain Valley had some pretty uniform storm totals, although down toward Middlebury, there was definitely less snow than further north.

Snow totals taper off a lot as you head south and east across Vermont, as expected.

The only slight things off with the forecast were that ice accumulation was a bit heavier than expected last night in parts of the Champlain Valley. And the changeover to snow in the northwestern half of Vermont came just a wee bit earlier than expected, but not by much.

It appears the ice was also more destructive east of the Green Mountains than originally anticipated.  As of 5 p.m. Friday, Vermont Outage Map was reporting at least 13,000 homes and businesses without power, with most of those problems along and east of the Green Mountains from Caledonia County southward.

It looks like freezing rain, followed by snow that was initially wet and heavy, plus gusty northwest winds did a number on trees and power lines there.  

A snow covered car guns up equally snowy Fairfield Hill Road
in St. Albaans on Friday. 

As happy as I am with the accurate, user-friendly job the National Weather Service and area meteorologists did with this storm, I have a really serious bone to pick with some employers in Vermont.

Outfits like the University of Vermont and the state of Vermont government - at least parts of it - made people come to work this morning.

Then, when, as expected, the snow got intense and the roads became almost impassable, these idiot employers said, "Hey, Guess what?!? We're sending you home now. The storm is bad." 

Well, duh!

So, people had to drive home on unsafe roads in minimal visibility during the height of the storm.  Why did UVM and other not just have people not come to work this morning? Don't use the excuse, "Well, the roads weren't that bad at 8 a.m.!"

Never mind that every single Vermont weather forecast I came across this morning - all the TV meteorologists in Vermont, Eye On the Sky, the National Weather Service - were basically screaming that things would get out of hand with the weather by mid-morning. And that's exactly what happened.

I guess these employers don't give a crap about their employees' safety.

Kudos, by the way, to my supervisor at Gardener's Supply, where I work, who called me before 8 a.m. and told me not to come to work because of the weather.  Which meant I avoided a terrible, potentially dangerous commute back and forth between St. Albans and Burlington, Vermont.

 (I asked UVM about all this by responding to their Twitter message about the midday closure, but  as of late this afternoon, Twitter was refusing to let me post anything or receive messages and notifications. I don't know why.)

This evening, if you're home, stay there. Yes, the storm is winding down, but it will probably keep snowing until around midnight. True, it won't come down nearly as heavily as it did earlier today, but the flakes will keep flying. Gusty winds through the night will keep the snow blowing around too.

On top of that, this was a pretty big snowfall, at least in northwestern Vermont. It's also icy further south. Road crews were working pretty damn hard as of late Friday afternoon, but it will take a while to clean up this mess.

Vermont Emergency Management today did give one good reason why you might want to leave the house this evening.  That would be to check on your elderly neighbors.  Do they have heat? Do they need a path out of house through the snow? Are they OK?

After you're done with that, just go back inside and binge watch Netflix or something.

Also, in areas where the snow is pretty deep now, clear the powder away from vents. You don't want carbon monoxide backing up into the house. That oderless gas is a killer, you know.

In the wake of the storm, we'll have some pretty chilly air to deal with. It'll get close to zero tonight, with wind chills well below zero. It'll only get into the teens at best Saturday, and by Sunday morning, it'll be 5 to 15 below in most areas of the state.  That's the coldest it's been all winter, although that's not extreme by Vermont standards.

A brief warmup Monday means many valley locations will have some minor thawing. Say goodbye to the powder, though as the snow settles and gets wetter then freezes up a bit.

More periods of snow and snow showers will continue on and off all of next week, but there won't be any major storms or blockbuster accumulations.

It's February, deal with it.

Winter Storm Will Wind Down Today; Vermont Avalanche Problems To Follow?

I'm faced with another opportunity to dig the vehicles out
of the driveway as the snow continues to fall this morning
in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Well, we Vermonters are in the process of getting over another winter storm, though snow is continuing off and on at least into midday.

Amazingly, given the complexity of forecasting this thing, the storm behaved pretty close to what was expected. Sleet and some freezing rain worked its way as far north as somewhere between Route 4 and Route 2.

The thought was the sleet would make it to around Route 2. Given the forecast challenges, that is pretty close to what was expected.

It was still snowing in most of Vermont as of 8:30 a.m., so snow totals are not final. But it looks like the National Weather Service in South Burlington and most local meteorologists got it right. 

For instance, as of 8 a.m, my property in St. Albans, Vermont had gotten 7.6 inches of snow. (Somebody else in town measured 8.2 inches). This was measured right before a heavier band of snow started to move through. So the local forecast of eight to 12 inches for northwestern Vermont will verify.

Elsewhere, the most snow as of 7:30 p.m. in Vermont were 9.5 in Alburgh, a town that was expected to be a hot spot for deeper accumulation. Moretown reported 10 inches. Accumulations in southern Vermont were four to eight inches, suppressed somewhat by the mixture with sleet.

Further north, it was an even bigger storm. Montreal reported close to 16 inches of new snow.

A final, decent band of snow was crossing much of Vermont this morning. It'll pretty much make it through and taper off by midday. (It was coming down hard in St. Albans at 9 a.m.) Until at least noon, expect snow covered, slippery roads and slow going. As most of you already know, a lot of schools are closed and delayed.

If possible, you should delay driving until this afternoon, when conditions improve. By then, we'll have just light snow and flurries. Temperatures will rise to near or just above freezing in the warmer valleys, and near 30 elsewhere. That's more than warm enough for road salt to work, and the plows will surely be out all day too.

The strong winds developed as expected along the western slopes of the Green Moutains, too.  Winds gusted to 64 mph in Mendon and 60 mph in Danby. In the mountains, gusts reached 76 mph atop Mount Mansfield and 91mph atop Whiteface Mountain, New York.

The National Weather Service/South Burlington raised a good point in their forecast discussion this morning. Back country winter sports enthusiasts should really be careful for the next few days.

The snow and sleet that fell can easily slide on steep slopes. Especially since it fell on old, crusty snow. This new snow and sleet won't "bond" to the pre-existing snowcover, so it can easily turn into an avalanche. Strong mountain winds also produced a lot of snow loading in chutes and ravines, which also increases the risk of avalanches.

This risk extends through the Green, White and Adirondack mountains. The NWS has issued a special weather statement to alert people to this problem.

After today, the next storm is coming along Friday. It won't be as big as forecasters thought earlier this week, but it will be a warm one.

Expect snow and rain showers on Friday as temperatures rise well into the 30s to near 40 in the warmer valleys. A couple inches of additional snow will probably accumulate in the mountains. Unfortunately, the snow will turn crusty again in the valleys as temperatures fall Saturday, and we will once again have a lot of ice underfoot, as we have most of this changeable winter.

After this weekend, it's hard to tease out what kind of storminess wil happen around here. The weather pattern is fast and active and complex, so it's nearly impossible to gauge the development, timing, path and strength of any storm more than a few days away.

Burlington, Vermont is now just about up to its normal amount of snow for an entire winter - around 80 inches. But that surely means the snow won't shut off. There will be more after this week. It's just hard to tell when and how much.

Storm Pretty Much Done In Northeast Finally

The scene in front of my house in St. Albans, Vermont
this morning with a lilac bush smushed by
dense, heavy snow and plenty of snow to shovel.

I awoke to an additional two inches of snow at my weather hacienda in St. Albans, Vermont this morning, bringing the storm total to nine inches.

Impressive, as I'd only been expecting a couple of inches before the storm.

One last clot of moisture crossed northern Vermont last night, bringing that additional burst of snow. There are many reports of two to five inches of snow last night with that last band.

Unlike Sunday's snow, last night's parting sot from the storm that's heading away from us now was light and fluffy and will be easier to shovel or sweep.

The storm actually caused damage on my property. splitting a large weeping willow tree and causing minor damage to lilac bushes and evergreen shrubs.

Other than snow showers in the mountains today and flurries elsewhere, there won't be much in the way of snow anymore.

Western New York State got clobbered. I found it interesting that the storm system pulled moisture all the way from the tropics near Bermuda up into Quebec, and then turned it southward across the Great Lakes into New York.

Lake effect snows like this usually work by pulling moisture off the relatively warm waters of the lakes and dumping it on land in the form of snow, and that was the case here. But the snow was enhanced even more by that tropical moisture from Bermuda.

This willow tree in my St. Albans, Vermont yard
suffered significant damage in this snowstorm. Note
the large branch that's cracked and now hanging
vertically after nine inches of snow fell.  

This arrangement also pulled lake and other moisture into southwestern New England and the higher elevations near the lower Hudson Valley of New York.  Which meant quite a bit of snow fell there.

Here are some of the totals I came across, based on reports from the Weather Channel and National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Albany, New York and Burlington, Vermont:

40 inches, Lacona, New York
21.9 inches, Syracuse, New York, which was that city's largest snowstorm on record.
32 inches, Redfield, New York
30 inches, Osceola, New York
20 inches, Peru, Massachusetts, in the Berkshires.
26 inches, Woodford, Vermont, in the southern Green Mountains east of Bennington.

Higher elevation towns in central and northern Vermont, and the northern Adirondacks, picked up close to a foot of snow.

The next couple of weeks look stormy for much of the nation, with several systems expected to cross the middle and eastern parts of the country. Some of these storms could be fairly strong.

A weak system will affect New England Thanksgiving morning with light snow and rain showers. A potentially stronger storm Saturday could dump a fairly heavy amount of snow and/or rain on the region, but that prospect remains very uncertain.

I'll update you on that when we get closer. Several more storms of rain or snow will likely follow that.

If nothing else, at least it's some drought relief, right?

Storm Departing; Widespread Shoveling To Start Thanksgiving

Via Twitter: Josh Elniger captured
this nice image of the snowstorm during
thunder snow Wednesday in
Mt. Pleasant, N.Y.  

Look at it this way: You're probably going to consume a LOT of calories, this Thanksgiving Day.

So you might as well burn it off by shoveling.

In the eastern United States, a lot of people have the opportunity to do just that.

A huge area stretching from the higher elevations of West Virginia and Virginia all the way up through the Northeast to Maine have six or more inches of new snow on the ground this morning.

Most of these accumulations are west of Interstate 95, but a big, big area is covered by this.

So far, judging from incomplete reports, the biggest snow totals are 18 inches near Paw Paw, West Virginia and 16 inches in Orwell, Vermont. So you can see how widespread this is.  I'm sure we might find bigger storm totals once all the reports are in.

The storm is departing now. There is some lingering snow falling across northern New England, but in other areas, the roads are being cleared for travel today. So maybe you can still make it to your Thanksgiving feast.

I talked about shoveling to burn off calories, but be careful. The snow in most places, except in northern New England north and west of Albany, N.Y., is very wet and heavy.  Shoveling it will be a lot like shoveling wet cement.

If you're over the age of 50 and/or not in great shape, you'd better let someone else clear the snow. You don't want to have a heart attack. Or destroy your back.

A bigger problem is power failures caused by the heavy wet snow bringing down trees and power lines. AccuWeather reported more than 300,00 outages in New England early this morning, with 148,000 or so in New Hampshire alone.

I can't imagine they'll be able to restore power to everybody today, so that really screws up Thanksgiving feast plans. What, build a bonfire in the backyard and cook the turkey in that? I don't think so.

Via Twitter: Geoff Pattern photographed this
weather related crash Wednesday in
Towamencin, Pa.  

One interesting thing about this departing storm is it went a little more to the west than expected.

Most nor'easters like this have something called a "deformation band" which is a band of heavier snow well northwest of the storm center, near out outer edge of the precipitation shield.

This storm had a well developed one, running from northeastern Pennsylvania, through central New York, curving to near and northwest of Albany, then into western, central and northeastern Vermont.

Albany, N.Y, in this heavier snow band, got 9.6 inches of new snow, making this one of the city's Top 10 biggest November snowstorms. 

In this band, a lot of places had more than 10 inches of snow. Just to the northwest of this band, amounts tapered off dramatically.

Burlington, Vermont, just on the outer edge of this band of heavier snow, got 8.4 inches of accumulation. At my house in St. Albans, 24 miles to the north of Burlington, I barely got three inches, and communities just 5 to 10 miles northwest of my house could barely muster an inch or two.

For the rest of the holiday weekend, it's looking pretty quiet in the Northeast, with just some small storms with scattered rain and snow showers moving through.

An exception might be coastal Massachusetts, where one of those small storms could gather some strength, and moisture from the Atlantic Ocean, to dump a few inches of snow late tonight and Friday morning.

That situation is uncertain, but should be watched.

Other than that, time to go play in the snow.

Snowstorm Totals Pretty Much In Line With Forecasts

The National Weather Service in South Burlington put out a listing of storm totals from yesterday's snowstorm and in general, most places got six to 10 inches of snow.

Snow falling and dusting spruce trees
in my St. Albans, Vermont yard Wednesday.  

That's very much in line with predictions made ahead of the storm.

The most reported was in the northern Rutland County town of Benson, which saw 14 inches. Proctor and Tunbridge each reported 12"

Two things sort of stood out for me with this storm.

The first is, usually, there's a HUGE variability in the amount of snow from one place to another in a Vermont snowstorm. This time, totals were tightly packed between six and 10 inches statewide.

That's pretty unusual.

Secondly, the only part of Vermont where the forecast ahead of the storm was a little off was in the extreme northwest corner of the state. There, two to five inches of snow had been forecast, but more than that fell.

For instance, Swanton reported 9.5 inches and I measured a storm total of 8.2 inches at my property in St. Albans.

The snow is light and fluffy and already starting to pack down. I imagine places that had a foot of snow on the ground this morning from this storm and previous will be down to perhaps 8 inches or so within a week, unless we get a lot more snow.

No big storms are forecast, but there are some chances of light snow now and again for the next week in northern New York and northern New England.

Temperatures are also forecast to stay below freezing for several days at least, so winter sports enthusiasts have plenty of opportunity to enjoy the snow.