Vermont Storm Update: Still Very Windy, Wet And Wet-Snowy Thursday

National Weather Service updated snowfall prediction map issued
Wednesday afternoon. It still looks like this is going to be
an elevation snowstorm in Vermont. Click on the map
to make it bigger and easier to see. Yellow and orange
areas should expect more than six inches of snow.

Since this is going to be a pretty good storm, it's worth updating the situation, as you're going to see a lot of rain and/or snow Thursday morning. Some of us will also see a ton of wind.  You'll need to deal with it, so here you go:

THE SETUP 

This afternoon, light north winds funneled chilly air southward down the Champlain Valley, so it ended up being cooler today than expected.  (Elsewhere in Vermont, the low level cool air couldn't make it in, so today's highs ended up in the mid to upper 30s, as forecast.

This subfreezing air today, along with occasional light snow, doesn't really mean the Champlain Valley is in for a colder, snowier storm than expected tonight and tomorrow.  In fact, as of late afternoon, the snow flurries here in St. Albans had already changed to a some light sleet, mixed with a few drops of freezing rain.  That's an indication that a surge of warmer air is on its way.

For most of tonight, at least until midnight, any precipitation that does fall will be very light and spotty.  It's not until the storm pushes in from the southwest, with its strong weather front, that heavy precipitation will get going after midnight.

HEAVY RAIN/SNOW

That front will initially bring a surge of somewhat milder air, so the heavy stuff that comes down in the valleys early Thursday seems like it will be mostly rain. However, with the weather front and storm itself strengthening as it comes in, that could cool the atmosphere a bit to produce wet snow, so it's no guarantee the valleys will be mostly rain.  Let's just call that rain scenario likely, but it's possible you could be surprised.

If it is mostly rain, it come down hard for a time in the morning. There's still a fair amount of ice and snow on the ground in northern areas.  Storm drains are clogged with ice, too. Expect some urban flooding with this rain, if the forecast comes out as expected.  More than half an inch of rain in just a few hours is expected, which would be enough to cause that kind of problem on town and city streets, and maybe basements.

River and stream flooding won't be much of an issue because a large share of the precipitation that will come down in the higher elevations will be snow.

The higher in elevation you go, the more likely you are to get snow.  It still doesn't look like there will be much in mid-elevations, say around 1,000 feet. Those areas could manage a couple or thre einches. However, it's still possible we'd get a surprise with more, but so far, it's looking like a no.

If you're up above 2,000 feet in elevation in most of Vermont, you've got a great shot of getting six inches or more of snow.  Snowfall rates up there could be in the one to two inch per hour range. Especially given that it will probably be a relatively wet and heavy snow, I wouldn't drive toward the mountains Thursday morning.

HIGH WINDS

Wind gust forecast from the National Weather Service in South Burlington
That dark orange stripe along the western slopes of the Green Mountains
in eastern Rutland and Addison counties forecast gusts of at
least 60 mph early Thursday. Lighter orange shading indicates
gusts of at least 40 mph. 

Adding to this mix is the expectations that winds could get quite strong on the immediate western slopes of the Green Mountains. I mentioned this in this morning's post, and everything still seems to be aligning toward those winds.  

The strongest winds would come before or near dawn in Rutland and Addison counties, closest to those western slopes.

Winds could easily gust past 60 mph. With some snow loading on trees and power lines in higher spots, this is a recipe for power problems in and near communites like Mount Holly, Shrewsbury, Mendon, Goshen, Chittenden, Brandon and Starksboro.

Those high winds along the western slopes will spread north around or just after dawn to western slope communities like Huntington, Bolton, Jericho, Underhill, Cambridge and Bakersfield.

In those towns the wind will be a little lighter than points south along the Greens, but the gusts will be enough to risk some power line and tree issues.

The bottom line is you should prepare for a complicated Thursday morning commute, regardless of whether you get mostly rain, mostly snow, or strong winds.  You might want to charge your devices ahead of time, in case the power goes out.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON

After the front passes, heading north and east, precipitation everywhere will change to snow but become lighter. Winds will become somewhat lighter, but remain gusty. Temperatures Thursday afternoon should keep falling through the 30s and well down into the 20s.

Given that, when you're returning home from work Thursday evening, expect slick spots from continued light snow, and water from the morning freezing on roads.

INTERESTING POST-STORM ACTION

Perhaps the most interesting aspects of this storm will actually be something that will happen after the storm actually passes by.  It could have some effects here in Vermont, but first I need to set things up for you.

The storm will head north into Quebec, and there will be strong west winds behind the storm.  As I mentioned this morning, the Great Lakes aren't frozen like they usually are this time of year.  The strong winds, unstable air and the open waters of the lakes will set up some huge lake effect storms downwind from the lakes.

There's strong indications that an epic lake effect snow band will generate itself on Lake Superior, get more energy as it moves east-southeast across Lake Huron, then heads due east across Lake Ontario into the areas near and south of Watertown, New York.

This is especially true south of Watertown in the infamous snow belt area called the Tug Hill Plateau. They are so going to get slammed.

There's a blizzard warning for this area near and south of Watertown for an expected three to four feet of snow on the Tug Hill Plateau and one to two feet in surrounding areas.  This will be propelled by winds gusting to 50 to 60 mph.  You can imagine the huge drifts, zero visibility and difficulties with this situation.

Vermont won't get anything like that. But I've seen that in cases where there's such a powerful lake effect band with such strong winds, some Vermont higher elevations can get quite a bit of snow.

The lake effect snow band, while slightly weakened will extend across the Adirondacks. Generally, the remains of these snow bands skip the Champlain Valley as the Adirondacks block the moisture associated with these snow squalls.  Still, little upper level disturbances in this fast west to east flow behind the storm can help bring some snow from this lake effect into the Champlain Valley.

People in the Champlain Valley won't get much snow out of this, but an inch or two of accumulation could slicken up the roads Thursday night and Friday.  Just sayin'.

The real point of this little story is what happens when the remains of this snow band hit the central and northern Green Mountains. Since this thing is pretty narrow, not everybody in the mountains will get a lot of snow. But in my opinion there's the potential for six or more inches of snow somewhere in the mountains of northern Vermont after the main storm.

All because of this lake effect snow band.  The snow band could move back and forth for a time spreading some snow through the entire Green Mountain chain north of Killington. Or it could focus on a specific area and really come down.  Parts of the Northeast Kingdom could also get in on this action, especially since weather patterns suggest the atmospher might interact with parts of the lake effect stuff up there.

It's not certain all this will happen. But I think it might. The National Weather Service in South Burlington isn't focusing on this right now, because they have their hands full with the immediate storm.  This post-storm snow thingy is just something to watch.

Mostly because it could help make for another great weekend of  skiing and riding, between Thursday's high elevation snow and the post-storm snow showers.

AFTER THAT

It'll be a pretty chilly, wintry weekend across Vermont, which is to be expected as the calendar just turns from February to March. But another period of warm-ish weather seems likely for the first half of next week.  Again, that's something you have to expect now that we're getting into March.

Wicked Ugly Weather Friday In Vermont. Stay Home!

Storm total map for snow accumulation, updated early Friday
morning. Snow could reach a depth of more than a foot
across the northwest.  Strong winds will blow
the snow around, too. This comes after freezing rain
and sleet early this morning. 

On this February Friday in Vermont we're faced with a storm in which forecasts issued early this morning for your area will probably be at least a little wrong.

However, any little inaccuracies don't really matter with this storm.

The bottom line is, it's a very ugly out there an it will get even uglier as the day wears on.  This is totally a day that you will either want to work from home or just call in sick, if possible.

You won't want to be out in the roads anywhere in or near Vermont today.

In most of the state and surrounding areas, you will experience sleet, freezing rain, then heavy snow, blowing snow, whiteouts, strong winds and plunging temperatures.

The combination, at least in my opinion, makes this just about the worst type of storm to be caught out in.

But, you're perfectly safe if you just stay home.  I just went through the list of today's school closings at the Vermont Public Radio web site and it's an awfully long list.  I'm pretty sure your town's school is closed today.

The overall forecast scenario for this storm is the same as last night with one big question: What will be falling from the sky and when?  That will have a big influence on how much ice accumulates on roads, trees and power lines. It will also determine whether you get only a few inches of snow at your house or a foot and a half. We do know precipitation, whatever it is, will come down really hard at times.

There are big timing questions as to when mixed precipitation will go over to snow in any one spot in Vermont today.  If it changes over even an hour later than forecast, you get more ice, but much less snow accumulation.  If the change comes an hour or two earlier than predicted, you get a few inches of extra snow.

It's really impossible to time the changeover super accurately with this type of storm.

Like I said, though, it doesn't really matter what falls from the sky at any given minute today.  No matter what, it's beyond lousy.

THE DETAILS:

Ice accumulations in central Vermont might be enough to break
some trees and power lines. (Red areas especially).

Overnight, the mixed precipitation, though light, made it northward all the past the Canadian border.

At my house in St. Albans, we had a glaze of freezing drizzle overnight. As of 5:30 a.m., that changed to heavier showers of mixed sleet and freezing rain.

Snow was increasing in northern New York as of 6 a.m. today. Radar indicated the rate of snowfall was rapidly increasing over northwestern New York.

As this heavy band of precipitation becomes established, it will intensify and move east into Vermont.  It will bring sharply colder air with it, changing mixed precipitation to snow over northwestern Vermont first. Then the snow will head south and east across the state.

For this morning's commute, things will go from iffy to much worse as the morning wears on. The best guess from the National Weather Service in South Burlington is that snow will reach the Burlington area by around 9 or 10 a.m. today, Montpelier around noon, and early to mid afternoon in southern Vermont.

As of 6:50 a.m., at least, this scenario seems pretty accurate, as snow was beginning to mix in with the sleet and freezing rain up here in St. Albans, the northwestern corner of Vermont.

As this changeover happens, the rate of precipitation will increase as this storm, already strong, really cranks up. Whatever falls from the sky will come down pretty hard. This type of storm  often sets up narrow, intense bands of precipitation  on its northwest flank, which we will be in.  So, one town might end up with say, 15 inches of snow, while a community just 20 miles to the west or east gets maybe six inches.

Before the changeover, ice could accumulate on trees in power lines in south central Vermont enough to create some power failures, so be ready for that. In the north, there won't be enough ice to cause many problems in tha regard, but high winds later today could be an issue.

The intense storm center will move over western Massachusetts and into coastal Maine this afternoon. If  you have a barometer, check it out this afternoon. It will be awfully low. Strong storms usually create strong winds, so you'll feel that later today.

By the time the wind begins to howl by this afternoon, it will have snowed quite a bit in northern Vermont, and many areas in northern Vermont will see snowfall rates of one or two inches per hour. That's very heavy snow. Those strong winds, gusting as high as 40 mph risk causing whiteout conditions this afternoon and evening. Yet another reason to not go out.

By the way, this winter storm is not just a Vermont issue, of course. Southern Quebec, northern New York, much of New Hampshire and most of Maine also face heavy snow, strong winds and ice.

Back here in Vermont, It'll be rough this evening, but snow will taper off and end overnight, as it gets very cold.  If you're digging out Saturday morning, dress for it.  The day will start with temperatures of near zero degrees.

Big Snow Dump Likely Coming To Northern Vermont/NY

The famous National Weather Service snow forecast map from the
National Weathe Service in South Burlington. Click on it to
make it bigger and easier to see.  There could be 20
inches or more of snow from this storm near the Canadian border.

As expected the first inch or few inches of snow have fallen in much of Vermont early this morning in what promises to be a long slog through snow and mixed precipitation.

The precipitation will harass us through tonight, but the main show comes on Friday, and it has the potential to be a real doozy.

As of around 8 a.m., light snow was falling over most of Vermont, with mixed precipitation coming into the far south of the state. The question for today is, how far north will that mix get?

There's no question the southern half of Vermont will be pretty damn messy today.  

After the few inches of snow that accumulate there this morning, it'll go over to sleet and freezing rain.  In the southern half of Vermont, that mix of yuck will probably continue into Friday morning.

The most ice will probably accumulate south of Route 4.  Except in some isolated areas, it won't be enough to cause tree and power line damage, but it will surely mess up travel!  Additional snow toward the end of the storm could cause more power line trouble Friday.

It's hard to say how far north the sleet or a little freezing rain will get, but I wouldn't be surprised if sleet made it as far north as the Canadian border, at least briefly.  Still, areas north of Route 2 will be mostly snow through tonight.

The rate of precipitation will lull you into a false sense of security this afternoon and this evening.  It won't come down hard, and you'll say, "Oh, this isn't so bad. Another hyped storm."

And I suppose there's a chance it could be a bust.  But right now, things are lining up for Grand Hurrah for the last phase of the storm on Friday - one that could bring a good foot and a half of snow, especially to places north of that infamous Route 2 line.

Yesterday, I mentioned that often, on the northwest side of a storm moving up the New England coast, you get a band of especially heavy precipitation that pretty much stays nearly in one place for several hours at least.

It's starting to become a little more clear where that band will set up, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

They're saying that band of heavy snow will establish itself over northern New York before dawn, then slowly crawl eastward across Vermont during the day Friday. Under this band, snowfall rates could easily reach one to two inches per hour, possibly even more than that. - which is really, really heavy snow. A good portion of northern Vermont could easily get six to 12 inches snow in just a few hours.  

Ice accumulation forecast for this storm in southern Vermont. The
ice, combined with some heavy, wet snow, could cause
scattered power outages Friday.

The expected set up, with a strong, deep cold front hitting the intense moisture feed with this storm, is a recipe for really heavy snow.

It's similar to they type of situation we had in the Valentine's Blizzard of 2007, or the Pi Day Blizzard of March, 2017.  

However, having said that, it does NOT look like this storm will be as bad as those two famous storms. The band of heavy snow won't last nearly as long in any one place as it did in these two historic storms.

At this point the heaviest snow in this band seems like it will come through in the morning to mid-afternoon, so I would stay put and not drive anywhere during this. The snow will initially be somewhat wet and heavy, but turn much more powdery as the day wears on.

Southern Vermont has an even trickier forecast with this.  Remember, they'll be more into the sleet and freezing rain Friday morning.  My guess is they'll be on the southern end of this intense precipitation band.

Sleet and freezing rain could turn heavy for a time, then change to a period of heavy snow, with several inches of accumulation a good bet.

It's interesting that northern Vermont is under a winter storm warning for this event, while southern Vermont is under what to a layman seems like a less dire but still to be taken seriously winter weather advisory.

In my experience, dealing with, then cleaning up after a combined mixed precipitation and heavy snow event is much more difficult than just enduring, then shoveling away a particularly deep snowstorm that comes with little or no ice.

The snow will become lighter in intensity late in the afternoon or evening on Friday, then end overnight, aside from continued snow showers in the mountains.

However, definitely stay home Friday night if you can. Winds will pick up to 20 mph or so, with gusts of 35 mph.  That'll cause a lot of blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures will plummet overnight, too, dropping to near zero in many spots by Saturday morning. Wind chills will be a huge problem.

Saturday will be the time to enjoy a powder day in the northern Green Mountains. It'll still definitely be on the cold side, but the winds will slowly diminish and skies will get sunnier.  Sunday looks pretty gorgeous, too, with light winds and highs up in the 20s (after temperatures recover from below zero readings early Sunday morning.)

The bottom line is this will probably be Vermont's Storm of the Winter.  At least in most of the state. (A December storm was much bigger than this in far southern Vermont.) A band across extreme northern New York, then through places like St. Albans and on over to Newport could get about 20 inches of snow.  Which means this is more than a typical Vermont snowstorm.

Areas between Route 4 and Route 2 are in for roughly a foot of snow, give or take a few inches.  South of Route 4, all that mixed precipitation will limit totals to eight inches or less. At least that's the way it looks now.

Potential surprises with this storm:  Mixed precipitation could work further north than expected, cutting down accumulations somewhat. Or, that band of really heavy snow expected Friday in the north could end up being a little less intense than forecast, which would cut down forecast totals. On the other hand, local wind effects working with this band of snow could create spot snow totals of two feet or more in some northern locations

In southern Vermont, if the atmosphere is a bit colder than expected, snow accumulations will obviously be a little heavier. On the other hand, it's possible it could get a little warmer than forecast, which would change everything over to plain rain for a time.

So yeah, there are still question marks about this storm.  But one thing is for sure: You will certainly notice this storm.

Enormous Winter Storm Continues Its Slow, Hard Hitting Cross-Country Trip

Current forecasts have far southern Vermont getting a HUGE
dump with the oncoming storm, with up to two feet of
accumulations in some spots. The Canadian border MIGHT miss out
with only an inch or two, but surprises could happen!

That impressive storm that's been blasting the West with snow, blizzardy weather, and lowland flooding and damaging wind continues its eastbound trek today, and it will continue to be a doozy for many.

For us Vermonters, it's still looking like it will be a tale of two different worlds.

As it stands now, if you're along the Massachusetts border, you're going to get crushed. If you're along the Canadian border, you'll be asking what all the fuss is about. In the middle, we'll see.  

Plus, there's usually surprised with these things. More on what will go on in Vermont in a minute. First, the overview.

I'm impressed by how far winter storm warnings stretch - all the way from Montana and Wyoming to far southern Vermont and western Massachusetts.  It's quite a storm with an awful lot of moisture to be able to spit out that much snow.  The entire winter storm warning zone is up for at least six inches of snow, with a few places possibly closing in on two feet.

Blizzard conditions are still likely in western South Dakota and northwest Nebraska, and also along the western shore of Lake Superior.  What makes this storm rough, among other things, is there's a lot of wind with it. Even more important, it's not in a hurry. Which means anyone along the path of the storm can expect a long lasting snowfall. Or ice.  Which heaps up the snow and ice even more.

As it heads east, there are some questions about how far north freezing rain and sleet gets.  The worst of the ice looks like it will extend from central Michigan, through southern Ontario and into Pennsylvania.

The freezing rain in Ontario and especially parts of Pennsylvania looks like it could be bad enough to do a lot of damage to trees and powerlines.

In the Northeast, it looks llike the heaviest snow will go through central New York, including the Albany Capital district and central New England. Even there, question marks about. Some models give that area up to two feet of snow, with a good shot of at least a foot.  Again, though, how far north does the freezing rain get?

If the ice goes more north, these areas will have less snow, with the trade off being more treacherous ice. (I certainly would hope for more snow and less ice if I lived in this area.) Right now it's looking like parts of Connecticut and Massachusetts could also have real problems with freezing rain.

The precipitation in the Northeast will come in waves and take quite awhile to pass. The original storm from the west will move in during the day Sunday.  If you have travel plans that take you through central and southern New England, i.e. if you have to get south, do it today.  You WON'T be happy if you try it tomorrow.

The rough weather, once it arrives during the day Sunday, will last into Tuesday. Monday will surely be a mess in much of the Northeast, with terrible roads, lots of flight delays and all the disruptions you can muster in a winter storm.

On Monday, there will be periods when the snow or schmutz comes down really, really hard in these area. You might see snowfall rates at times of two or three inches an hour in the storm's bullseye zone.

VERMONT IMPACTS

With every winter storm, I wonder what the surprises will be as the build up to the storm approaches. The biggest surprises will probably be in central Vermont, and maybe northern Vermont.  That's the zone where we don't know how well deep moisture from the storm will infiltrate.

As it stands now, as of this Saturday morning, far southern Vermont is in the crush zone, with a good foot of snow or more expected between Sunday afternoon in the state's two southernmost counties.  If no ice mixes in, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few two foot reports from favored spots in the far south.

The middle of Vermont is a wildcard.  There will be a lot of opportunity for it to snow most of the time from Sunday night to Tuesday morning, with that lull Sunday night. But will the storm's deeper moisture get into central Vermont? Or will it be just light stuff?

There is a winter storm watch up for Rutland and Windsor counties for the potential for six inches or more of snow.  But not a warning like far southern Vermont.  There's still too many questions. Worst (or best, depending on your perspective) would be a foot of snow near Route 4.

Further north up to around at least Route 2 has to be watched, too. These areas are expecting only a few inches of snow, but a little jog north with the storm or its moisture, and more could fall there, to. Which will win out? Dry air from Quebec, or wet air from the storm?  We need to keep an eye on that.

The east slopes of the Green Mountains could make out well, too. East winds with the storm will be forced to rise up the slopes, unleashing additional snow.

Those of us along the Canadian border shouldn't count on getting away scott-free either.  As it stands now, those very light accumulation forecasts look like a good bet. But watch that storm track!  Those of us who can see Canada from our houses still aren't yet guaranteed to miss out.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has snow coming into southern Vermont midday Sunday and slow spreading north, getting to the north by late afternoon.  It might not ever make it to the Canadian border at all, though, on Sunday night.

There will probably be a lull pretty much region wide Sunday night, but snow will pick up again Monday as the new coastal storm takes over. If anybody gets blasted by the heaviest snow, it would be on Monday.

This will all be good for the ski areas.  Some Vermont resorts are in for a big dump. Those that miss out will get free advertising from the storm, and it will be cold enough to make snow, AND there will be minor systems coming through over the next week or so to keep replenishing things.

I'm sure the winter sports types are happy.

Records To Fall Amid Big Vermont Winter Storm, Arctic Cold Snap

Around a foot of snow could fall with this storm in the northern
Champlain Valley and northeastern New York. Lesser amounts
are due in southern Vermont, but sleet and freezing rain
will be an additional problem down there.

It was already snowing in parts of northern Vermont early this morning, the first small salvo in what will be a major winter storm later today into Tuesday.

I'm not just calling the upcoming storm major because it involves a lot of snow and some ice for this early in the season.  This will be, at least in some places, one of the bigger winter storms of the 2019-20 winter.

After the storm, we'll get into record cold weather, and some of the readings will probably be the coldest for so early in the season.

Let's get into the storm first.

The heaviest snow will come down in the northwestern third of Vermont, including the Champlain Valley.  Which is different than many winter storms, when areas outside the Champlain Valley get the most snow.

Northern New York will be in the heavy snow band, too. In these areas with the heaviest snow, 6 to 14 inches of accumulation is forecast by midday Tuesday.  A foot of snow really is a lot for this time of year.  These forecasts also call for deeper accumulations than predictions for this storm issued on Sunday.

By the way, Burlington has a shot of having one of its ten snowiest Novembers because of this storm. Number 10 on the list had 14.9 inches.  Burlington has already had 2.6 inches of snow this month, and the forecast calls for another 11 inches or so.  Plus, you figure it will snow again later in the month.

After sputtering light snows this morning, the snow will pick up in intensity this afternoon and especially overnight.  There will be periods when snow comes down at a rate of one or two inches per hour, which is a biggie.



You can always tell when it's going to snow by looking at
windshield wipers. Wipers were up off windshields in this
Burlington, Vermont workplace parking lot this morning in
anticipation of snow later today

South and east of a line very roughly between Middlebury and St. Johnsbury, the National Weather Service in South Burlington says there will be mixed precipitation overnight, changing to snow late tonight or Tuesday morning. 

There might be some accumulation of ice on trees and power lines in southern Vermont with this, but I think tree and power line damage will be on the light side. Still, there is the risk of some power outages down there.

After that epic storm on Halloween that cut power to 50,000 Vermont homes and businesses, I'm sure people are thrilled with this news.

The onset of precipitation in the south will be later than in the north, which will also cut down on the expected accumulations. Also, precipitation will probably not be as heavy as in the north.

The drive home this Monday evening will be tricky, and then just awful Tuesday morning. I anticipate a lot of school closures and delays. If you can work from home tomorrow instead of driving into work, that will be ideal.

It's not just us getting the winter storm, of course. Winter storm warnings extend from northeastern Ohio to northern Maine. Winter weather advisories extend much further west in a band extending from the Northeast all the way out to Nebraska and Colorado.

In Canada, Montreal is expecting a good eight inches of snow, and parts of southern Ontario are bracing for potentially their biggest mid-November storm on record.

Even more impressive than this winter storm is the cold that will follow.  One of the strongest mid-November cold waves in history is set to hit the eastern half of the United States, except Florida.

There will be lots of record lows with this, including here in Vermont.

The record low in Burlington Wednesday is 15 degrees and the record low on Thursday is 10 degrees.  Readings are forecast to get at least that cold this week.  Highs Wednesday will only be in the upper teens to around 20, which is actually colder than normal for the depths of winter in January.

The cold will stick around for awhile, as I've been noting   There will be a brief moderation Friday but that will be cut off by a fresh Arctic blast Friday night and Saturday.

Next week, the weather pattern does not look like it will be as extreme as this week. That means it still might be a little chilly next week, but not ridiculous like it will be over the next few days.

Tuesday Update: Today And Tonight's Winter Storm About To Strike

Tuesday morning's National Weather Service forecast map. Darker orange areas
get the most snow, around a foot, if this map comes to pass
Blue and yellow areas get the least snow and sleet, around 5-6 inches.

As of mid-morning Tuesday, clouds were lowering, thickening and turning darker as the well-anticipated winter storm is now on our doorstep.

The forecast hasn't changed too much since last evening's updates, but there's still a high bust potential in the predictions.

THE DETAILS:

The front part of the storm is pretty certain. Snow will spread from southwest to northeast across Vermont between 1 and 5 p.m today. When the snow hits, it'll go from just flurries to fairly heavy snow quite quickly, at most within an hour or two.

So, if you see flurries start in your location and think you'll leave work at that point to beat the heavier snow and the slick roads home, it won't work, unless you live less than five minutes from where you live. Snowfall rates in this first initial heavy band will probably be one to two inches per hour, with locally higher amounts.

That's pretty impressive, and is close to the heaviest snow rates possible in this neck of the woods. The National Weather Service in Albany suggests there's a slim but real possibility of thunder snow with this initial band as far north as far southern Vermont. We'll see.

Don't let the chilly temperatures this morning fool you. There will be plenty of warm air aloft for this, so mixed precipitation definitely enters the picture. And temperatures will slowly and steadily rise now through Wednesday morning, from the single numbers this morning to low 30s by Wednesday morning.

Forecasters are also sure that sleet will follow the snow this evening from southwest to northeast across at least a portion of Vermont. That's where the bust potential in the forecast comes in.

The last bit of sun glow in the southeastern sky over St. Albans,
Vermont this morning as the next winter storm approaches.
Look for plenty of snow and sleet starting this afternoon. 

As we said yesterday, the main storm is going by to our west, while another storm forms along the Northeast U.S. coast.

When that coastal storm gets going, it'll cut the northward progress of the sleet off at the pass. But where will that be?

Where the northward advance of the sleet stops depends entirely on how fast and how strongly the coastal low develops. If forecasters are off by just a tiny bit, the current forecasts will be wrong. How wrong at this point is anybody's guess.

At this point, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is thinking the sleet tonight will get as far north as the central Adirondacks and very roughly up to Route 2 in Vermont. North of that, the thinking is precipitation through the whole storm will be almost exclusively snow, with just the chance of a few brief ice pellets thrown in overnight.

Of course, when and where the sleet comes in depends on much accumulation we'll get.  In places where little or no sleet falls, the snow accumulation will obviously be the most. Those places look like it will be about a foot by Wednesday.

Here's where that is most likely: The thinking remains the big winners in the snow department for New York will be the St. Lawrence Valley and  a few places in the Adirondacks.

In Vermont, the deepest accumulations will be way up in northwestern Vermont in places like North Hero, Alburgh, St. Albans and Highgate. That's the third time this winter a big storm dumped the most snow in these locations. More often than not, far northwestern Vermont misses out on the biggest snow accumulations.

The far northern Green Mountains also look like they will be snow winners.

Southern Vermont is at risk for freezing rain with this, too.  I would say freezing rain could get as far north as Route 4, but again, this could be off by a fair amount. Far southern Vermont could get enough freezing rain to ice up trees enough to break a few branches and power lines.

Strong winds are still expected to be a factor along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, especially in central and southern Vermont. Winds there could gust to or over 50 mph. That also could bring down a few trees and power lines, especially in areas that get freezing rain.

As noted yesterday, the strong downslope winds on the western slopes will cut down on precipitation.  Between the sleet and the drying effects of those winds, parts of Rutland and Addison counties, for instance, might only get four or five inches of snow and sleet. Even that might be generous.

The Connecticut River Valley from White River Junction south look like they will get six inches of snow or sleet - or less out of this.

As the coastal low takes charge tomorrow morning, mixe precipitation will go back to snow, then taper off across most of the area.

The bottom line is this afternoon's commute, and the one Wednesday morning will be tricky regionwide.

Across northern and central Vermont, the snow looks like it might pick up in intensity again for a time Wednesday afternoon and evening, which would prolong the risk of slippery roads in the region.

ELSEWHERE

This storm is creating a mess from the Midwest to Maine.  Lots of places have already gotten a ton of freezing rain and sleet, and that trend will continue the rest of today. ]

For the second time this month, Chicago was under an ice storm warning early this morning. Roads are a mess out there, with trees and power lines weighted down by a lot of ice. It's going to turn windy later today in Chicago, meaning, more icy trees and branches might come down.

Southern Michigan is experiencing the same problem as Chicago this morning. A lot of freezing rain with its associated damage is likely tonight in places like Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southern New York and parts of southern New England.

Further south, the rain is coming down in torrents. Flood watches and warnings extend from Tennessee to the southwestern corner of Pennsylvania.

It's been a particularly stormy winter nationwide, from Hawaii to Maine, and this is the latest assault. An active weather pattern is likely to continue through the end of the month, but of course, it's hard to tease out more than a few days in advance the particulars of how each storm will behave.

Saturday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Real Changes To Forecast

The start of the storm this afternoon in St. Albans, Vermont.
As snow came down, temperatures were below zero, making
salt ineffective on roads Things got slick fast. 

As expected, light snow moved into Vermont during the afternoon, to mark the start of our big winter storm.

As expected, we have some surprises in the storm forecast. This morning I said they would be surprises, so you shouldn't be surprised. Did you follow that? Probably not, but oh well.

The big changes are that there will likely be somewhat more snow than earlier forecast in northern areas of Vermont and New York.  

In southern Vermont, especially Bennington and Windham counties, there will be less snow than earlier forecast, because sleet will mix in.

I alluded to that sleet possibility this morning, and all the forecast trends this afternoon pointed more and more in that sleet direction. These ice pellets could work their way as far north as a Rutland to White River Junction line Sunday  morning.

THE CHANGES: FIRST NORTH

This is really an odd storm. I have to quote the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in 'South Burlington. "Rather amazing snow event under way across the North Country."

The new Saturday evening storm forecas map. It's now saying everyshere
in Vermont should get at least a foot of snow, except the far south
Expected accumlations in northern New York are up substantially.

Here's why: Arctic air from Quebec has been feeding easily into the northern Vermont and northern New York.

Temperatures fell all day and were as low as -4 in Burlington and -8 in Highgate by mid-afternoon.  Dewpoints were in the 20 to 30 below range from Montreal north, which indicates pure Arctic air

This bitter air continues to drain southward into northern areas on a north wind. This situation is very often death to snow storms.

Arctic air is very dry, and helps evaporate snow before it even falls and hits the ground.  That's largely why initial forecasts called for only five inches of snow or so in New York's St. Lawrence Valley.  

Not this time. Despite the Arctic air that normally helps push storms further south, this storm is actually going to track a little north of earlier forecasts. On top of that, warm air is going to be able to ride north over the cold air more efficiently than first thought.

Which means snow totals in the north will be a little higher than first anticipated.  Now it looks like more than a foot will accumulate in the northern Champlain Valley all the way to and past the Canadian border. The winter weather advisory was upgraded to a winter storm warning in the St. Lawrence Valley of New York because instead of five inches, they will likely get eight to 12 inches of snow.

We also need to look out for more surprises in the north. It's possible a band of heavier snow that I said might set up in southern Vermont could set up in central or even northern Vermont instead.  If that happens, somebody, somewhere north of Route 4 could get two feet of snow or even a little more than that out of this storm.

Very cold air like this makes snowflakes small. Basically tiny needles. This type of snow is denser and harder to shovel than fluffy powdery stuff. Plus, it reduces visibility more than regular snowfalls.

Anticipate very poor visibility tonight and much of Sunday because of this. The snow will be more than powdery enough to blow and drift, so that's still going to be a factor.

CHANGES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT

The more northern track of the storm, and more powerful than expected push of warm air aloft, will combine to increase the chances for sleet to come down instead of snow. It'll snow hard at first in southern Vermont, then the chances for sleet ramp up Sunday morning.  .After that, any mix will go back to snow.

Because of the sleet, forecast accumulations have been cut back to about a foot south of Rutland and White River Junction, and as "little" as 10 inches or so around Bennington and Brattleboro.

For you winter storm enthusiasts, this isn't a disaster. The snow accumulation will be more dense than originally forecast, but it will be topped with a nice powder from the additional snow that will come down Sunday afternoon.

However, this will make the snow harder to shovel, because the sleet mixed in will make it heavier.

In the far south of Vermont, around Bennington, Wilmington and Brattleboro, it actually looks like there could easily be a period of freezing rain Sunday morning. I still don't think the freezing rain will last long enough to weigh down trees and power lines to the breaking point.

But the freezing rain will of course make life more difficult than expected in the southern end of Vermont. Road conditions will be even worse than earlier anticipated, and people will have to hack their way through the ice to get into their cars and such. I also have to wonder if emergency rooms will be busy from people falling on the ice.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD

The forecast for Sunday afternoon and night is no different than earlier. The snow will come down at a lighter pace, but continue into Monday. Especially in the central and northern Green Mountains and downwind from Lake Champlain. These areas can expect one to as much as six additional inches of snow between late Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon.

Although temperatures might "warm up" to the single digits above zero in northern Vermont for a time Sunday morning, readings will crash down below zero in the afternoon. Winds will pick up, and there will be a lot of blowing and drifting snow. Forecasters still expect dangerous wind chills through Monday at least.

After that, it will warm up starting Tuesday and continuing until near the end of the week, but there's still a lot of questions about how any storminess behaves from Wednesday onward.

ELSEWHERE:

Extensive tornado damage in Wetumpka, Alabama Saturday.

Because the storm has shifted northward, dangerous freezing rain is now expected in interior southern New England and coastal New Hampshire and Maine. Parts of New York between NYC and Albany are also under the gun.

These areas can expect some tree damage and power failures.

Snow and mixed precipitation will change to a heavy rain in the New York City area and southern coastal New England at least as far north as Boston. Flash flooding is possible in these areas. Also, coastal flooding is likely at the time of high tide Sunday morning.

The temperature will abruptly fall in these rainy areas Sunday afternoon, so a flash freeze will coat everything in ice.

Across the Deep South, the storm has caused an outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes. Social and local media are showing extensive tornado damage in Wetumpka, Alabama late this afternoon

I'll update this post as warranted this evening, and there will be of course other posts tomorrow. You can also get quick updates and little news flashed on Twitter, @mattalltradesb

Friday Evening Storm Forecast: So Far, No Major Changes

We're still on track to get hit by a pretty decent snowstorm over the weekend, with the Vermont forecast as of Friday evening mostly unchanged from this morning.

One of the biggest areas I've seen simultaneously under a winter
storm warning in a long time. The entire area in pink from South
Dakota to Maine is a winter storm warning. Blue areas to the
south and west of this area are winter weather advisories. 

This is truly a cross-country storm. It has affected, at least slightly, or will affect ever state in the Lower 48. This evening winter storm warnings cover a huge area from South Dakota and Maine.

The forecast still calls for snow breaking out Saturday afternoon and becoming heavy in most places Saturday night and Sunday morning.

The air will be frigid, as noted this morning. Air from the Arctic is very dry, and that throws a slight wrinkle into the forecast for the far north. The National Weather Service in South Burlington, in their evening forecast discussion said dry air might overwhelm the wet air feeding into the storm to produce the heavy snow.

This dry air might cut down on snow accumulations right along the International border and especially out toward the St. Lawrence Valley of New York.  It's iffy, but something to keep an eye on.

Some peaks in the southern Green Mountains could get two feet of snow out of this.

I wouldn't worry too much about power failures in Vermont with this. This will be a powdery snow, so it will mostly blow off of trees and power lines before it can weigh things down too much.

As I mentioned yesterday, it will be frigid and windy, with blowing snow and dangerous wind chills later Sunday, Sunday night and Monday.

At least we Vermonters can console ourselves that this storm will "just" consist of snow, blowing snow wind and cold.

Southern New England is in for a mess, with a burst of heavy snow, freezing rain, possibly enough in some places to cause power failures and areas of coastal flooding. It looks like the mid-morning Sunday high tide has the greatest risk of causing floods.

I'll repeat what I said this morning. Just don't go anywhere Sunday. Just stay home.

Forecast Remains Consistent For Big Vermont, New England Snow Dump

Updated snow prediction map issued early Friday looks very
much like the forecast issued Thursday. Deeper orange
and red indicates a foot or more of snow Lighter orange
in the Adirondacks and northwestern tip of Vermont
indicates a little under a foot. That patch of yellow
in northwestern New York represents a forecast
of about six inches of new snow. 

The forecast for the well-advertised and well-hyped storm coming this weekend have remained consistent overnight and this morning, which increases my confidence that a lot of us are going to get a big dump of snow by Sunday evening.

Usually, when forecast computer models and meteorological predictions in the runup in the few days before a storm stay consistent, that often means the advance hype is accurate.

Forecasters are so confident that they've already upgraded the winter storm watch to a winter storm warning across Vermont and New York. 

That's a little more in advance of a storm than usual for the National Weather Service to pull the trigger and upgrade to a warning.

This storm won't be the end of the world, but it is something to take seriously, for sure.

Most of Vermont can expect at least a foot of snow out of this, with the exception of the far northwestern part of the state, which might get a little less. Some spots in southern Vermont, especially the Green Mountains, could easily get two feet of snow out of this.  Northwestern New York might only get six inches of snow out of this.

The bottom line is that this could easily be the biggest snowstorm of the winter for many of us. It's not going to be the biggest snowstorm ever, of course, but take it seriously. Strong winds, blowing snow and really bad windchills will make this storm more intense and more dangerous than the usual run of the mills storms we get.

That said, it's VERY important to note this and any storm can still throw curveballs. It's entirely possible the track of the storm might change a bit. A little shift in track can mean big differences. If the storm goes, say, 30 miles north of where it's expected, the heaviest snow can shift into northern Vermont.

If it goes 30 miles further south than expected, northern and far western Vermont would get a break and get much less snow than expected, so stay tuned.

As of early Friday morning, winter storm warnings, watches and alerts stretched from California to Maine, which gives you an idea of how much real estate this storm is covering.

The storm is a bit disorganized now as it passes over the Rocky Mountains. That always happens when a storm goes over such rugged terrain. It'll reformulate itself today in the lee of the Rockies, giving the Dakotas, Iowa and surrounding areas a windy snowstorm today.

As the storm keeps organizing and moving east, it will spread its snow across the southern Great Lakes, then into our neck of the woods starting Saturday afternoon.

If you're in a panic and have to get your bread and milk, do it before noon on Saturday. Yes, I know most of us sane people won't panic, and we shouldn't, but there's always that crowd.

Seriously, though, since intense cold will accompany and follow the storm, make sure you have enough heating fuel for your home. Also, top off the gas tank in your car, put stuff in your car to help you out if you do venture out and get stuck.  Check on your neighbors, especially if they're elderly, to make sure they're doing OK during and after the storm.

As mentioned yesterday, this storm will be feeding off a very sharp contrast between Arctic air over us and to the north and west of the storm, and warm, tropical air just off the East Coast. Lots of moisture is getting pulled in from the Atlantic.

That wet air will rise over and above the cold air, and there's a lot of it, so during the peak of the storm, the snow will come down quite hard. The most intense snow will start later Saturday night and continue well into Sunday morning. That's when snow for a many of us will be coming down at a one to two inch rate, that's very fast.

We're lucky this storm is moving right along with nothing to really block its progress. Had it been a slow mover, it would have been an enormous, historic storm for us. Luckily, we're just stuck with a rather bigger than usual storm.

By the way, the biggest snow totals might be in Downeast Maine away from the coast, where up to three feet of new snow is possible.

STAY HOME

I wouldn't go anywhere Saturday night and Sunday with the heavy snowfall throughout much of New England. There's still a real risk of some major freezing rain in parts of southern New England into New Jersey and Pennsylvania. That will also bring the risk of downed branches, trees and power lines in those locations. So don't go there, either.

Sunday will be a great day to stay home, watch football or movies, or binge watch Netflix. It wouldn't hurt to have a decent supply of hot chocolate in the house.

Here in Vermont, even as the snowfall rate diminishes Sunday afternoon, the winds will be ramping up big time. Most places will be going at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to at least 30 mph.

The snow will be powdery and there will probably be lots of it, so blowing and drifting snow will be a big problem through Sunday night.

In open areas, like Routes 7, 30 and 22A in southern Chittenden and Addison counties, or in open areas along Interstates 89 and 91, and many other places, it will be a ground blizzard at times. That means there will be periods of zero visibility in the blowing snow. Drifts in some places will also be immense and pile up fast, enough to block roads. Especially the roads that aren't the main thoroughfares. Snow plow operators won't be able to keep up with it.

The winter storm warning notes that travel will be difficult or impossible in Vermont Saturday night and Sunday.

You don't want to be stuck out there in the intense cold. As I said yesterday, this will be an unusually cold storm. It won't warm up during the snow like it usually does.  Temperatures will be near 0 during the heavy snow overnight Saturday and stay in the single numbers Sunday. As the winds increase Sunday, wind chills will be far below zero.

Pace  yourself shoveling out, too.  You know that shoveling snow too vigorously can give you a heart attack, especially if you're not in great shape.  Also, exercise in very cold weather constricts blood vessels, further increasing the risk of heart attacks.

Although I think I'll need to shovel my entire, long driveway, let's face it, I'm in my 50s. I'll probably be careful and just do a partial job. And just go out for brief periods, with plenty of indoor warmup breaks. People will just have to deal with it. If people complain that you don't clear your driveway in a timely manner, just tell them to go to hell.

BEYOND SUNDAY

Forecasts call for continued brutal conditions Sunday night through early Tuesday. Winds and blowing snow and wind chills will be hazards through Monday morning at least. Winds will die down Monday night, but temperatures will plunge into the teens below zero Monday night.

The good news is this cold wave will be brief. It'll get reasonable Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday, a weaker storm passing by to our north and west could lift us into the 30s. With that, though, there's a chance the relatively light snow with that could change to mixed precipitation.

The bad news is we're in for repeated Arctic blasts into at least early February. Some of those might be as bad as the one we're getting Sunday and Monday.  There will also be chances of more snowfalls during that time, but of course it's too soon to say if they will be light nuisance type things or more substantial storms.

No guarantees, but I'm thinking I'll do a quick update this evening, and then a more detailed update later Saturday morning or around noon just before the snow starts. Stay tuned!

Thursday Evening Update: Winter Storm Still Moving Into Vermont To Create Friday Mess

The latest NWS/South Burlington snow prediction map for the
upcoming storm. It's showing a general five to eight inches
of new snow regionwide, but I imagine some favored places
might end up closer to 10-12 inches. 

As of late afternoon Thursday, the National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont has upgraded the winter weather advisory in all but western Rutland County and Bennington County to a winter storm warning.

All day long, I suspected the NWS would make that move, and sure enough.

I theorize that part of the motivation to upgrade to a warning is to alert people that this snowstorm is surely going to make a mess of our Friday morning commute to work and school.

I imagine, though, that quite a few schools in Vermont might shut down for the day on Friday.

The heaviest, most intense  snow for most of Vermont should come through just before or during the morning commute.

Forecast snow accumulations have been bumped up slightly, and almost all of us in Vermont should see at least six to ten inches of new snow by the time this is all said and done.  By the way, this includes the Champlain Valley, so I would remind you once again this isn't a high elevation storm like the last few.

I would not be at all surprised if a few places, especially in higher elevations, pick up a foot of snow or even a bit more than that.

By Vermont standards, this is a mid-sized, typical winter snowstorm, at least on paper. But there are a few things that are going on to make this one more risky than usual.

First of all, and most importantly, this will be the first big dump of snow of the season on the most heavily populated parts of Vermont. We're not used to driving in these conditions, so we don't have our "snow legs."

Some of us, ahem, have not gotten our snow tires yet, so that's an issue.

Here's another problem: As I alluded to, the timing of the heaviest snow could not possibly be worse. We'll really get dumped on before and during the morning commute. So it will take some time to clean the snow and ice from our cars and trucks.

Then we have to plow our way over snowy, icy roads. Yes, I'm sure the Vermont Agency of Transportation trucks will be out, but there's only so much they can do when it's snowing at a rate of an inch or more per hour.

The burst of heaviest snow will come through a little after midnight in far southern Vermont and reach northern Vermont between I'd say 4 and 7 a.m.

Yet another problem is that in many locations, especially in the valleys, is the snow will become somewhat wet and heavy. Unlike dry, powdery snow, wet snow tends to compact into a particularly slick, wet ice beneath car tires. It just makes everything worse.

Snow will taper to snow showers in the afternoon and evening, but the risk of icy roads will definitely continue.

Usually, a November snowstorm like this melts almost completely away within a week or a little more, at least in the valleys. I don't see that happening this time. Temperatures will stay below normal at least through Thanksgiving, and probably beyond.

Some afternoons will get above freezing in the valleys during this time frame, so some snow might melt. But we will also have additional light snow showers from time to time over the next week, even if there are no further heavier snows in the immediate future.

Which means this snow is going to stick around for awhile.

Skiers and riders must be ecstatic. It looks like Vermont will have the best Thanksgiving week snow conditions in ages, possibly since the late 1960s or early 1970s. It'll almost be like January conditions. Snowshoeing and cross country skiing are usually out of the question in the valleys during a Vermont November.

Not this year.

ELSEWHERE: A MESS

Today is awful from Maryland to New England.

Brooklyn Bridge in the snow today. 

As expected, an area of heavy snow is making its way north through New Jersey into the New York City metro area and southern New England just in time for this evening's commute.

Snow in and around New York City was coming down at a rate of one to two inches per hour late this afternoon. All lanes on the George Washington Bridge were shut down late this afternoon by snow and accidents. Video from the GWB shows that multiple cars and trucks collided on the icy pavement.  

Some areas around New York City reported two inches of snow in just 40 minutes.

The storm has turned deadly The Weather Channel reports seven deaths and dozens of injuries due to crashes on snowy and icy highways.

Here's a video of the first snowstorm of the season today in New York's Central Park:

Monday Morning Nor'easter Update: Eastern New England Slam; Vermont Impacts

Here's just one forecast for the amount of snow from
the upcoming storm through Wednesday. Anything
in shades of orange is over eight inches. There's
a chance this forecast might be overdoing the
amount of snow in parts of Vermont and New York. 

Here we are, the start of another week, and the discussion turns to...surprise! A big nor'easter.

It's the third biggie in 10 days here in New England, and this one will probably be just as wild as the other two during the day tomorrow.

I'll give you the headlines first and then delve into the details:

1. In Boston parlance, this one on Tuesday is going to be a "wicked pissah" in eastern New England with very heavy snow and strong winds.

2. Although the storm surge with this nor'easter won't be tremendous, because astronomical tides are pretty low this week, the New England coast is extremely vulnerable to nor'easters due to damage from the previous two storms

3. Just as in the last two nor'easters, the impact in most of Vermont won't be as great as points further east. (Yes, I know the last nor'easter really buried southern Vermont) However, the Green Mountain State is still in for a long, long period of snow which will gradually accumulate to decent depths.

THE DETAILS

The overall forecast scenario for this nor'easter's path and strength has changed very little since Sunday, though there's still some questions of the storm's exact track, which will affect how badly any particular area gets.

As the storm gathers, winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories extend from Kentucky, through the Virginias into much of North Carolina. A winter weather advisory extends all the way to the North Carolina coast, as an inch or two of snow will accumulate there this evening

By the way, snow on the North Carolina coast is pretty rare, but not unheard of, for mid-March. The developing nor'easter is still expected to head off the Carolina coast tonight in an east-northeast direction, then turn almost due north.

Snowing ard in Boone, North Carolina early this
morning as the next nor'easter gathers. 

The storm will pass east of Cape Cod during the day Tuesday as a "bomb" meaning it will be intensifying quickly.

At this point at least, this track puts much of the eastern half of Massachusetts, and most of Maine and New Hampshire in the "sweet spot" for snow, with most places in that region getting a good foot of snow. A few places could close in on two feet.

There will be a lot of wind with this as well, so blizzard conditions could develop in eastern New England Tuesday. I wouldn't be surprised if some areas in eastern New England end up under a blizzard warning tomorrow.

Winds on the Massachusetts coast could gust as high as 65 mph amid all this. Bottom line: Don't drive to Boston or Portland or places like that tomorrow. Like I said. Wicked pissah.

Here's an interesting tidbit: In Portland, Maine, three of the top 10 biggest snowstorms have occurred on March 13-14 over the years. This storm there might go in the Top 10, making it four such monster storms on this date.

As I said, the tides during this storm won't be tremendous. But the sand dunes are missing from many vulnerable coastal places in New England, thanks to the last two storms. The dunes would have gradually been at least partly replaced through normal processes over the next several months, but they haven't had a chance to with these repeated storms.

The lack of dunes and the existing damage on the coast means communities there risk further damage from what would otherwise by minor coastal flooding and splashover from waves. Beaches, already badly eroded, will take another nasty hit from this one tomorrow.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Like the last nor'easter, this will be a fairly quick hit in southeastern New England. Not so in Vermont.

During the nor'easter's trip past New England tomorrow, Vermont will be on the western edges of the snow shield. Expect a general two to six inches of new snow across the state on Tuesday, with maybe a little more than that in far southern Vermont. The least snow will fall to the west.

So it won't be like March 13-14 of last year, when western Vermont was bulldozed by a blizzard that dropped up to three feet of snow.

However, like the nor'easter last week, this one will get hung up in the Canadian Maritimes will slowly weakening over time Tuesday night through Friday.

That means lots of mostly light snow will continue through Thursday night. Over time, the snow will become most focused across the northern part of the state and along the spine of the central and northern Green Mountains.

When all is said and done, total snow accumulations from late tonight through Thursday night could easily exceed a foot in parts of northern Vermont, especially the high elevations.

It will probably be windier and colder than last snowy week, so expect some blowing and drifting as well.

CAVEATS:

If this storm goes a little further east than forecast, the snow in Vermont will be even lighter on Tuesday than currently forecast, but we'd still get that lingering light snow Wednesday and Thursday.

If the storm tracks a little closer to New England than forecast, obviously snowfall in Vermont would also be heavier than forecast. If there's a more westward track, eastern Vermont stands the greatest chance of being hit harder than forecast.

OUTLOOK:

The weather pattern looks to remain active basically for the remainder of March. It's impossible to pick out the details of what will happen with each storm, but overall, the chances that it there will be rain or a mix with subsequent storms is rising, as the storm track might go more inland. Also, the baseline temperature is warming up as we head into spring, making rain increasingly likely at the expenes of snow.

WILD Nor'easter For Some; Meh For Others. Sifting Through The Reports

The scene in Morristown, New Jersey yesterday.
Photo by Bob Karp/The Record via AP

Sorry for the last start with this post here on Thursday morning, but I'm finally getting my act together.

What a storm last night!!  What, you only got some light snow? Yeah, me too.

A grand total of 2.9 inches new in my yard at St. Albans, in northwestern Vermont. We will get some more snow out of this in northern Vermont. More on that in a while.

But first:

The general forecast of who would get a lot of snow and who would get a little panned out, but the people who got the heavy snow really got it. And some of the people were were expecting lighter accumulations didn't get much at all.

 t was a snowstorm to remember in some parts of the Northeast.  There's a couple videos at the bottom of this post, by the way.

Here in Vermont, Woodford, in the far southern Green Mountains, clocked in with a whopping 36 inches of snow. Searsburg got 32.5 inches. Landgrove and Wilmington got 25 inches.

In a band from New Jersey through areas near New York City, the lower Hudson Valley, Connecticut,  western Massachusetts, and, yes, the far southern Green Mountains, it was absolutely wild yesterday afternoon and last night.

Thundersnow was very common in New Jersey up through the Big Apple and into Connecticut. One woman in New Jersey was hospitalized after she was struck by lightning. It's the first time I can remember somebody being injured by lightning in thundersnow.  

Incredible snowfall rate, Springfield, Pennsylvania.
Photo by Matt Slocum/AP

One death was reported so far with this storm, that of an 88 year old woman hit by a falling tree.

The incredible snowfall south of Vermont in many areas was very wet and heavy. More than a million people lost electricity, after last week's nor'easter cut power to more than two million.

More than 3,000 flights were canceled. The heaviest snow hit during the afternoon rush hour in and near the big cities, so there were lots of trapped cars, crashes and other highway nightmares.

Snowfall totals outside the southern Green Mountains were also incredibly impressive - 32 inches was reported from Clarksburg, Massachusetts, with North Adams, Massachusetts close at 30 inches. In Connecticut, 28 inches was reported in Warren. In New Jersey, 26.8 inches was reported at Montville.

It was the rate of snowfall that really crushed some areas and gummed up the works.  One town in the Massachusetts Berkshires got 18 inches of new snow in three hours - that's six inches per hour!

STORM OVER, EXCEPT IN NORTH 

The storm is pretty much over from Massachusetts and far southern Vermont and points south all the way down into the New Jersey storm zone.

Things will keep cranking today in northern New England, especially in Maine and New Hampshire, where many places will get at least half a foot of new snow today.

Here in Vermont, it looks like it will keep snowing in most of the central and northern Vermont the rest of the day today.

Tree on a house, Walpole, Massachusetts with this storm.
Photo from AP

In fact, it looks like the snow might pick up a bit in intensity this afternoon, with another two to six inches of snow likely. (We could easily double the amount of snow we've gotten so far in St. Albans, for example.)

Light snow will probably continue on and off Friday, Friday night and maybe into Saturday across northern Vermont, too, with a little additional accumulation.

By the way, the early and middle parts of next week in Vermont look interesting, too. By "interesting" I mean we could get more snow. I have no idea how much yet.

Some videos:

CBS New York has this report of how awful it was out there on I-280 in East Orange, New Jersey and other areas. Even their news van took a minor hit:



Thundersnow in Moorestown, New Jersey: