Weird, Wild, Dangerous Storm Gets Under Way Today

 I love these three big trees in my St. Albans, Vermont back yard. I
definitely risk losing them to the oncoming ice storm, unfortunately. 

Up here where I live in Franklin County, Vermont, I'm already mourning the likely loss of some trees I love in my yard.

There's that damn ice storm coming, that's whh.

I already lost a beautiful willow tree to the storm back on November 1.  I have three enormous poplars in the back yard. They're just wonderful. But they don't hold up well in heavy ice accumulations.  So, maybe I'll lose those.

A row of cedar trees has grown up over the years on the south side of the property facing the road. They've helped turned the back yard into a private Eden. Cedars don't hold up in ice, either. So they're gone.  

That's why we can't have nice things, right?

Maybe I'm overstating this. I hope I am. Maybe the trees will be saggy under the ice for a couple days then everything will be fine. I just don't like the risk. I love my trees almost as much as I love my precious two dogs.

Regarding the ic, forecasts have been pretty consistent for days now as to what will happen with this storm. It's still looking like the northern border counties of Vermont and New York will get a ton of ice. Slightly further south, there's a flood risk.

I'll get into the specifics in a minute, but first let's set this storm up.  It is a weird one.

First of all, conditions are very ripe in the South for severe weather because winds veering with height south and east of the storm center. Ahead of the main line of severe thunderstorms with this system, supercells could easily develop. They have the potential to bring strong, long lasting tornadoes to parts of eastern Texas and Oklahoma and parts of Lousiana and Arkansas. Huge hailstones might fall with these, too.

A squall line of severe thunderstorms will also form and zoom eastward today, tonight and tomorrow through the Gulf Coast states.

A low-level jet, which is a current of fast-moving air a couple to a few thousand feet over the Earth's surface, will be going over this region. The low level jet is a product of this strong storm system and is unusually strong, as it's expected to reach speeds of up to 100 mph.

It's so strong people in the Gulf Coast states will probably be able to hear it roaring overhead.

This squall line will be able to grab chunks of this high speed air from a few thousand feet overhead and bring it to the surface. That means there's going to be a lot of wind damage with this. There will probably be widespread gusts of 75 mph or more with some of these storms.

Worse, the air will still be veering with height, so there probably will be some embedded tornadoes with this dangerous squall line.

Luckily, we in New England don't have to worry about this aspect of the storm, although there is a chance of gusty thunderstorms in southern New England Sunday.

The forecasts have been steady as she goes as the storm lifts northeastward later tonight, Saturday and into Sunday. Along the storm path, a broad band of heavy rain has prompted a widespread area of flood watches extending from northeastern Texas, through the Midwest, parts of the Great Lakes and on into central Vermont.

North and west of that line, it appears there will be a nearly equally broad band of damaging freezing rain. It'll extend from Oklahoma and Missouri, up through Illinois, into the Great Lakes and on into Ontario and southern Quebec, and northern New England.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Expected ice amounts in northern areas. I expect there to be somewhat
thicker ice than this. You start to see some damage at a quarter
inch thick. At a half inch, damage starts to get more substantial.

Of course you've noticed by now I've mentioned flood watches and a risk of damaging ice in Vermont in this post.

One thing that gives me confidence this forecast is fairly accurate is the computer models, and the forecasts, have been pretty consistent for days.

As always, the devil is in the details.  

The details are a forecasting nightmare.  The temperature gradient across Vermont Saturday night will be extreme.

 I have a feeling that somewhere in western Vermont, there will be a 30-mile or less zone where the temperature goes from the mid 50s to around 32 degrees south to north. As you can imagine, that makes it basically impossible to tell who gets what and when.

The broad brush expectation from the National Weather Service in South Burlington will have to do, then.

The (very reasonable) way they see things developing is this:

It's windy today, especially in the Champlain Valley, as you've surely noticed. That'll keep temperatures rising through the 30s and 40s during the day today and tonight.  There might be a little rain around, but not much.

In southern areas of Vermont especially, temperatures will keep rising into the 50s to possibly near 60  as we get into Saturday.

Meanwhile, as the real rain begins in earnest, that low level cold front will slip down from Canada into northern Vermont and adjacent New York and New Hampshire.

How far south the cold front gets, and whether it wobbles north at times during the storm, will determine how much ice will accumulate.  Remember, it will stay quite warm a few thousand feet overhead. So we won't get any snow, except maybe at the very tail end of the storm.

Instead, rain will fall into that thin layer of subfreezing air near the surface and freeze on contact.

Generally speaking, you start to see scattered power outages and tree damage when ice gets to be about a quarter inch thick.  At half an inch, the damage gets pretty extensive. At three quarters to an inch thick, there's widespread, serious tree damage and also widespread, long-lasting power failures.

Early thoughts are Burlington's ice accumulation will be around a quarter of an inch. Bad, but not the end of the world.

But when you get to the northern border counties, we're talking a half inch of ice or more, which is definitely serious. There could be ice at least an inch thick in New York's St. Lawrence Valley.  That area is really in trouble.

Of course, if the freezing rain begins earlier than expected and lasts longer than we think now, everything would be even worse. Stay tuned.  For now, there's a winter storm watch for this scenario in the northern border counties.

Here are some tips for those of you in the expected ice zone:

--- Charge up your devices before the storm.  The power outages might last a long time.

--- Get battery operated candles and lights ready, too. Make sure in advance you have plenty of extra batteries.

---- Fill up the car with gas, too. If the power is out, the gas stations can't pump gas. Don't park under trees, as branches or the whole thing might come down. If you park outside, consider covering your vehicle with a tarp. It'll be easier to get the ice off when this storm is over.

----  Get some cash, too.  If you need to buy anything, especially in an emergency, stores with no power won't be able to process your credit or debit card

---- If you're going to use an electric generator, for gawd's sake make sure no fumes get in the house and everything exhausts outside. You don't want to die of carbon monoxide poisoning.

-----This being Captain Obvious, but stay away from downed power lines and out from under trees.  You never know when a branch will snap off.

At this point,  it's still seeming like precipitation will be mostly plain rain from very roughly Route 2 south, although there might be periods and pockets of freezing rain, too.

There's an inch or two of rain or melted ice coming with this storm, plus the squirt of warm air will melt what snow we have out there. So, there's a floo warning from immediately south of winter storm warning zone near the border down to Rutland and Windsor counties.

Precipitation will be somewhat lighter in far southern Vermont, which means so far, there's no flood alerts there.

The rain, and freezing rain and whatever else will end Sunday afternoon, but the ice will stay on everything in the north. Gusty winds will cause additional power outages and tree damage. Ugh.

I don't know about you, but I am NOT looking forward to this storm.

So Far, Vermont Flooding Mostly Minor In Vermont; But Water Continuing To Rise

State of the flooding in the region as of 7:15 this Saturday morning.
Light green areas are flood warnings, meaning flooding is occuring.
Dark green is flood watches. I do think we'll see a few more
light green flood warning areas popping up during the day today. 

As expected, rivers were rising across much of Vermont and surrounding areas early this Saturday morning. Already a few flood warnings were up in northern parts of the state.

With continued warm temperatures in at least some of the mountains and another surge of rain to go, flooding will probably still worsen in the state.

Rainfall across northern areas overnight ranged from a quarter inch to an inch. Normally that wouldn't be a big deal, but with snow melting from the mountains and saturated ground, this was enough to create at least a little flooding.

Snow melt from the mountains is pretty healthy. The top of Mount Mansfield lost eight inches of snow Friday, leaving the snow depth at 99 inches. That's still a lot, but it's the first time they've been under 100 inches since mid-February.

So far, things aren't as bad as they were with Monday's flood, but there's still areas of concerns. Parts of the Passumpsic, Missisquoi and Lamoille rivers in northern Vermont were already under flood warnings at dawn today. Route 122 near Route 5 in Lyndonville was already shut down by high water. So is part of Route 5 in St. Johnsbury Center.

In New York, flood warnings were up along the Ausable River. Flood warnings were also in effect on some northern New Hampshire rivers.

We'll have to follow rain patterns today to see if the situation intensifies. In general, the low areas that usually get flooded in the spring will go under water. As always, avoid driving through floodwater. Turn around and find another way to get to where you're going.

Forecast map has the Missiquoi River at North Troy flirting with moderate
flood stage today. 

Early this morning, a stalled out cold front bisected Vermont, roughly from between Bennington and Rutland, to a little southeast of Montpelier, to a little northwest of St. Johnsbury.

South and east of that line, it's summery humid with temperatures in the 60s. North and west of that front, it's a dank April morning with temperatures in the 40s.

If you have a sharp temperature contrast like that, you do have to worry about heavy rains.
Moisture pools along such boundaries and the contrast helps add lift to the atmosphere.

As it was, with the front stalled across north central Vermont overnight, some of the heaviest rain fell right along this boundary, with about an inch reported.

A batch of steadier rain from overnight was heading northeastward out of Vermont and into central and northern Maine, where flood concerns are even bigger than they are in Green Mountain State.

Meanwhile a batch of heavy showers and thunderstorms was entering southern Vermont as of mid-morning. It's unclear exactly how far north this rain will get before it gets shunted east. But much of the state can expect more showers, a few of them heavy, on and off during much of today.  It's also unclear if this northward moving batch of rain will lighten up, or maintain its intensity. 

Nevertheless, the rain and storms will generally want to follow that stalled front, so chances are at least southern and central and eastern Vermont, if not the whole state, could get another good, unwelcome dousing today.

In the warmer air in eastern Vermont, there's a heightened chance this rain could develop into heavier downpour-ish thunderstorms. That could increase the flash flood risk over the eastern half of the state.  Forecasters will just have to track it and see what happens.

Since there are some thunderstorms mixed in, there's the risk of torrential downpours that could touch of flash flooding in a few spots.

Rain will taper off this evening.  Easter Sunday still looks nice, with partly sunny skies, warm temperatures and only a minimal risk of showers.

Although there looks like there will be unsettled, showery weather of and on next week, the rain doesn't look particularly heavy, which is good.

Runoff from today's rain and snowmelt and continued runoff from some rain will continue to flow into Lake Champlain. It'll reach its 100-foot flood stage as soon as today.

Risk Is Growing For A Second Vermont Flood In A Week

Areas in green are under a flood watch this weekend.

Gosh, Wednesday was a gorgous day!

Wall-to-wall sunshine, light winds and pleasantly mild afternoon temperatures drew a lot of people outdoors. I hope you enjoyed it, as things are going downhill.

The big weather news is there seems to be a growing risk of renewed flooding in Vermont and surrounding areas, though questions remain about how serious this might get. More on that in a second.

A warm front was coming at us this Thursday morning, but it will get temporarily get hung up over the Green Mountains today. That means it will be warm-ish west of the Greens today with highs closing in on 60 degrees, while many areas east of the Greens won't even make it to 50 degrees.

Only scattered light showers will accompany this warm front, so don't worry about any flooding today Winds will get blustery today and tonight, with winds gusting past 40 mph in spots, especially in the Champlain Valley. (The wind went from calm to gusts estimated close to 30 mph in the hour ending at around 6:15 a.m. at my house in St. Albans, Vermont.

Then the flood threat grows on Friday and Friday night. That storm system we have been talking about will move northeastward along the western slopes of the Appalachians Friday and Saturday, while a cold front sort of sags into northwestern parts of our area from Canada.

The storm will have a rich feed of moisture coming off the Atlantic, and that moisture will interact with that cold front that will be sort of sitting around somewhere over northern New York or perhaps northwestern Vermont.

That means a good slug of rain falling on a wet landscape and rivers still running high from Monday's flooding. At least initially, the flood threat looks best in northern Vermont, rather than southern Vermont Friday night, though the threat is there aross the entire region.

Flood watches are up from Friday evening through Sunday morning for the entire region.

There's a lot of question marks about Saturday. At this point, it looks like dry air will wrap into the storm Saturday over New York State, so only scattered showers are expected there.

East of this area, more wet air will be streaming up from the south, and showers and thunderstorms will develop. Now, that's bad, because downpours associated with thunderstorms would cause flash flooding and worsen the general flooding.

Nobody is sure if Saturday's storms will get going somewhere in Vermont, or further east in New Hampshire or Maine. (There's flood watches over in New Hampshire and western Maine, too.)

One example of the flood threat in Vermont. After some flooding
on the Passumpsic River in the Northeast Kingdom Monday,
high water is forecast to be possibly even worse this weekend. 

North central and the Northeast Kingdom has the most snow left to melt. If the expected slow-moving thunderstorms target that area, the flooding could get pretty serious.

Already, forecasts for the Passumpsic River in the Northeast Kingdom call for a moderate flood crest, higher than on Monda. That would flood some neighborhoods in Lyndonville and shut down parts of Route 5 near St. Johnsbury.

Again, nobody knows where these showers thunderstorms will set up and how torrential they will be, so we just have to monitor future forecasts.

In general, minor to moderate flooding is forecast, which is what we had Monday. But as we saw, even moderate flooding causes a lot of trouble.

Damage assessments are still underway. There's a lot of destruction of town roads and bridges. For instance, in Pittsfield, deep in the Green Mountains of central Vermont, damage to roads and bridges might be as much as four times the town's $230,000 annual road budget, NECN reported.

The Otter Creek at Center Rutland actually reached major flood stage on Monday, flooding a few homes in Rutland City and Center Rutland. The state has so far tallied at least $2 million in flood damage from earlier this week.

It's possible that there was enough damage for parts of Vermont to be declared a disaster area. Of course, if flooding develops this weekend, that would increase the damage.

Lake Champlain was just below flood stage today, but those strong south winds will cause some wave splash over and erosion. The steady winds will actually tilt the lake, so it will be higher on the north end. So up by Rousses Point and Alburgh, the lake might reach flood stage of 100 feet today.

The renewed rain this weekend is sure to make the entire lake go over that 100 -foot flood stage

Beyond Saturday, the weather will remain generally unsettled, but at this point it doesn't look like there will be any heavy rain storms between Sunday and the middle of next week. Just the usual April showers.

Tornado Risk Today And Coming Week In South; Flood Concerns Here In Vermont

Tornadoes, some possibly strong, are expectd in the South today,
especially in the red-colored area. The threat spreads east and north
on Sunday.

As advertised, today looks like a dangerous day in parts of the South, especially in Louisiana and adjacent parts of Mississippi, southern Arkansas and eastern Texas.

Here in Vermont, spring appears to have finally sprung, but that brings some flood risks. I'll get to that after we deal with the bigger weather news of the day.

The focus today is on the Gulf Coast. As of now, the table looks set for a tornado outbreak in this region. Some of the tornadoes look like they will be strong and stay on the ground for long periods of time.

It's always possible that there could be pleasant surprise and the atmosphere might not line up perfectly for severe storms and tornadoes. But most forecasters are pessimistic.

Already, early this morning, an intial band of thunderstorms, some severe, were heading north through northern Louisiana. Once they clear out, that will set the stage for even worse storms later today.

A tornado watch was already up early today in southwestern Texas. At least one supercell thunderstorm was already roaming that region before dawn, which gives you an idea how much potential there is for trouble.

The energy helping to produce those storms is heading northeast.  Most of the ingredients for a lot of tornadoes are setting up in Louisiana. The air is unstable. The sun will heat the atmosphere and worsen that instability.

Strong winds will blow overhead, and those winds will change direction with height. Let's just hope the bigger tornadoes that do develop stay out in open country and not through any bigger towns.

Tomorrow, the risk of severe weather and tornadoes moves east and expands to a broad area mostly along the Appalachians from Pennsylvania to Florida. High winds, hail and tornadoes are all possible in this area, especially in parts of the Ohio Valley and the Southeast.

The bottom line is that a large chunk of the southern United States better have their weather radios close at hand, and have a plan to get to a safe spot if a tornado warning is issued.

Normally the rule is, if there's a tornado watch, that means twisters are possible, and you should continue your routine but keep a sharp ear out for any warnings. A tornado warning means a twister has been spotted or indicated on radar, and you'd better get to a safe shelter, pronto.

With the risk of larger tornadoes this weekend, I'd advise people who live in less-sturdy mobile homes or manufactured homes, especially those that aren't tied down correctly, to take an even more cautious plan.

People who live in this type of house ought to play it safe and leave even if there's "just" a tornado watch. Just hang out at a friend's house, a friend who lives in a home with a very good storm shelter or secure basement.

The risk of severe storms and tornadoes will continue much of this week. After a lull on Monday and possibly Tuesday, another strong storm system looks poised to spin up more tornadoes across the South and middle of the nation Wednesday and Thursdays.

The parent storms that are spinning up these tornadoes will affect us here in Vermont. Not with tornadoes, which is a good thing, but with possible flooding. Details follow:

VERMONT RAIN

This motorist was tempted to take his
chances crossing a flooded stretch of
road during spring flooding in April, 2015
near Enosburg. He saw me filming and
decided he didn't want to be part of an
embarrassing YouTube video. He
wisely decided to turn around
rather than proceed.

It was gloriously the first truly spring morning outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont when I took the dogs out early this morning.

Temperatures were in the 50s, birds were singing like crazy and there was that delicious organic aroma in the air of springtime mud and new growth.  Tiny daffodil shoots shot up a couple inches more overnight.

A cold front was also making its way through Vermont, but since it's not a strong front, and we're starting off so warm, today will be the mildest day so far this year.

While highs in the 60s to a few 70s in the southern Champlin Valley and lower Connecticut River valley are not unusual for mid-April, they sure are welcome.

This warmth is now eroding and melting the deep snow pack still in the mountains. Next up, the storm that will produce the weekend tornadoes in the South is heading in our direction.

Rain will break out Sunday afternoon and continue well into Monday.  Rivers will be rising a bit even before it starts raining because of today's warmth. Add an inch or so of rain with the upcoming storm and more melting snow, and you'll have some flooding problems.

Which is why the National Weather Service has issued flood watches for Vermont and adjacent New York from Sunday night into Tuesday. 

I'll let the National Weather Service in South Burlington do the talking for a bit here. According to their hydrology discussion this morning:

"Some of the more susceptible basins include the Ausable, Missisquo, Passumpsic, Otter Creek, Winooski, Lamoille and possibly the Mad River. Sharp river rises are likely beginning Monday. Most main stem rivers are expected to crest during the day Monday based on current indications. Any mountain streams or small rivers will be very susceptible as well, especially Sunday night into Monday."

In other words, this is going to be a statewide problem.  In a few spots, the flooding might be had enough to force evacuations. We'll see. If told by emergency managers to get out because of flooding, absolutely do so!

One of the biggest and most persistent risks in flooding are those people who insist on trying to drive over flooded roads. Don't. Especially don't be one of those morons that drive around barriers put up because of the flooding.  This type of idiot then gets stuck, putting themselves and their rescuers at risk.

By the way, this time of year, flood waters are obviously very cold. If you get stuck in the water, hypothermia sets in wicked fast.

The next storm late in the week, the one that will bring that second round of tornadoes to the South Wednesday and Thursday, also looks like it will come toward New England. It's too soon to say how  that will affect things, but there's the risk of some more moderate to heavy rains with that one. If it does rain hard with the second storm, there could be a renewed flood threat.

Today's Soggy, Warm, Gusty Storm Playing Out As Expected

12:30 PM FRIDAY UPDATE:



Radar imagery from this morning shows a remarkably long and strong
plume of moisture extending all the way from Nicaragua and Honduras
to New England. Very odd indeed!

Parts of New England and southeastern New York, including southern Vermont, either are or could be in real trouble with flooding later today. 
The reason I'm saying this is because in this region, the amount of water in the atmosphere is at record highs for this time of year.

This raised the potential for some fairly extensive flooding, and in some places it could get nasty.

Flash flood warnings were in effect for much of Connecticut as of early afternoon. Flood warnings are in effect for much of southeastern New York and New Jersey, along with parts of western Massachusetts. .

While the flood watch remains in effect for all of Vermont, there are currently no flood warnings yet. If flooding does develop, it would most likely be in the southern half of Vermont, but could develop anywhere in the Green Mountain State between now and Saturday.

The rain might not be as heavy in Vermont as elsewhere in New England, but there's melting snow and temperatures far above normal. So watch out!

The eastern half of New England is also really under the gun by this high moisture content in the air.

Satellite and radar images are remarkable because they show a plume of moisture extending all the way from Honduras and the tropics, up through Cuba then north into New England. This is extremely weird. Which is why we have the unprecedented amounts of moisture in the air for this time of year.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

A gloomy, wet morning along the Winooski River near the Intervale in
Burlington this morning. Water levels will surely be higher than
this by tomorrow, due to rain and snowmelt.

My dogs were not as enthusiastic early this morning as usual when it came time to go outside to do their business.

They're not fans of drenching, cold rain, so I can't blame them. There was no leisurely sniffing around to see what transpired last night outside. It was go out, run back in. 

I can't blame them. No nice Charlie Brown Christmas Special light snow falling. Just a wind-driven rain. Yuck.

That's our lot for today, folks. As advertised, that warm storm is here.  The forecast from yesterday still stands, so kudos to the National Weather Service in South Burlington and other local meteorologists for getting this one right so far.

Flood watches are still in effect area wide. Total rainfall will range fron three quarters of an inch to around two inches.  East and southeast facing slopes will get the most, western slopes of any mountains will get the least.

With temperatures forecast to soar into the 50s later today, the snow left over in the high elevations and woods will melt fast. So the flood watch is a good idea.  If readings actually manage to get just a touch warmer than forecast, we could be flirting with record highs. The record high today in Burlington is 61, set in 1957. The record high in Montpelier for today is 56 degrees.

Wind advisories stay in effect until 1 p.m. this afternoon, mostly along the western slopes of the Green Mountains.  After that, winds should diminish some, but stay kind of gusty.

I noticed the top of Mount Mansfield was reporting wind gusts of 79 mph early this morning, so it wouldn't take much for some of those gusts to mix down onto the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

Nobody is expecting wind as strong as what they were seeing atop Mount Mansfield  in populated areas, but gusts over 50 mph are a pretty smart bet.

This wind will be localized and sporadic. In some areas, winds aloft won't be able to mix down, so things will be pretty calm. That was the state of affairs in places like Burlington, at least early this morning. Meanwhile, Rutland was gusting to 41 mph.

It still looks like it will cool off to seasonable winter conditions starting tomorrow afternoon. The rain showers will probably end as a few snow showers. A weak system might bring us another dusting of snow Christmas Eve.

Some areas might have a coating of snow on the ground for Christmas, but it won't be like last year, when most places have a half foot or more of powder on the ground.

It has actually been snowier this year leading up to Christmas than last year. Through Dec. 22 in 2017, Burlington had accumulated 20.8 inches of snow for the season so far, compared to 25.2 inches this year.

Of course, unlike this year, there was no big pre-Christmas thaw in 2017, and the snow kept coming. Another 1.1 inches came down on December 23, with 3.5 inches on top of that Christmas Day.

I'll be surprised if Burlington gets an inch of snow between now and Christmas Day, 2018.

Update On Loud Storm Headed Our Way

A really active day is coming on Friday, with possible flooding and areas
of strong winds. Orange areas on this map can expect wind gusts
exceeding 45 mph. Those small hot red areas in the mountains
and western slopes of those mountains might see gusts over
60 mph, which could cause some damage. 

As previously advertised, expect a really active, noisy day on Friday.

Before we get into that kind of nasty weather, today might be the most gorgeous day of this December in Vermont. That's not saying much, given how it has been quite cloudy and chilly so far.

However, today will feature some sun, especially this morning before clouds from the warm storm that's coming cover the Vermont sky.  

And it will be mild. Many of us will get at or just above 40 degrees. Not bad for the Dark Days of December.

Not much has changed in the forecast since yesterday. Severe storms and tornadoes are expected in Florida today and this evening in eastern North Carolina.

Flood watches are scattered from Florida to Maine, with the main areas of flood alerts being from the Mid-Atlantic States into New England. Vermont is included in this flood risk zone. 

The only real winter weather with this so-called winter storm will hit northern New Hampshire, northern Maine and to a lesser extent the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. Freezing rain will slicken roads in these spots early Friday. The surge of warm air is extensive enough that most of us won't see much in the way of ice.

For us in Vermont, the main show will be Friday, which will be wet and windy. The flood watch is continued, as temperatures soaring into the 50s along with moderate rain and rapidly melting mountain snow should get rivers up and running.

As I said yesterday, this won't be a mega-flood, but still worth paying attention to. Please don't be an idiot and drive onto flooded roads. I imagine there will be some low spots that get flooded Friday into Saturday.

River ice isn't too thick yet, but there is enough so that there might be some ice jams and local flooding as the rain and warmth break up that ice on area rivers.

The main story might be the wind. It's looking more and more likely that there will be some strong gusts, especially along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. The worst of it looks like it will come Friday morning starting before dawn and lasting into the early afternoon. Winds in much of western Vermont look like they'll gust to 50 mph or so.

That's enough to bring down some branches, trees and power lines, so be aware of that. I also think there could be some very localized much stronger gusts in the immediate lee of some of the mountains

This might be places like east and southeast of Rutland, areas around Ripton and Bristol, and up near Cambridge, Underhill and  Bakersfield. These will be very local strong winds but still worth noting.

Temperatures will fall during the day Saturday as cooler air comes in behind the storm. Rain showers will go over to snow showers in the afternoon and evening, but don't expect much in the way of accumulation.

There's a chance a weak system might spread an inch or snow across much of Vermont on Christmas Eve, which would let us eek out a white Christmas, but don't count on it. It's not much of a storm, and there's still a chance it won't amount to anything at all.

My Five-Year-Old Type Brain Saw A Funny On A Weather Map

I admit it. I can be really, really immature. 

I get it that weather warnings and watches from the National Weather
Service are serious, but all I could think of when I saw this map
Tuesday evening was a dinosaur pooping on central Texxas.
Yes, I'm a bad, bad person. 

Which is why I laughed out loud last evening when I got to the home page of the National Weather Service. 

The home page features a color-coded map of the entire United States, and shows all the weather warnings, watches, alerts and statements in every county in the nation. 

The map is color coded, so you can easily pick out the flood watches, winter weather alerts, severe thunderstorm statements, etc. 

Last evening, a large area from northeast Texas to central Illinois was under a flood watch, depicted in dark green. Meanwhile, west-central Texas was under a severe thunderstorm watch, depicted in purple, with a couple of severe weather warnings and statements showing up in the middle of that purple in the colors orange and beige.

Serious stuff, yes. But all I could think of when I saw that map was a dinosaur pooping on west-central Texas. 

You can see it in the photo in this post. And yes, I'm a bad, bad, childlike person who should feel ashamed. 

But oh, well. 

Tropical Vermont In February Continues For (Part Of) Today

Here's something I thought I'd never see. A forecast
map issued by the National Weather Service office in
South Burlington, Vermont forecasting high
temperatures today - in mid- February - in the
low 70s across western Vermont. 

Just a quick update this morning as I've got an early meeting.  

That strange February heat wave has arrived and records are already falling. It was more than a little bizarre this morning to take the dogs outside this morning in far northern Vermont comfortably wearing shorts and a t-shirt. In Vermont! In February!

Before midnight, Burlington, Vermont had a record high for the date of 59 degrees.

Before dawn this morning, it was already 61 degrees in Burlington, a record high for today, and the temperature will keep rising before a cold front comes in this afternoon.

It's actually too bad the front is coming when it is. Had it held off until evening, the temperatures would really climb. Still, this heat wave is unprecedented, in an era when we're having unprecedented heat waves now once every few months or more. (Examples: Remember the four days of 90 degree heat in late September, during the autumn? and the 70 degree heat at the end of February last year?)

By the way 61 degrees at 5 a.m. in Burlington is exactly normal for that time of day in mid-July, the peak of summer. Today's forecast highs, in the 60s, with a few low 70s possible in southwestern Vermont, are normal for late May.

If it reaches 70 degrees in Vermont today, this will be the third winter in a row that the Green Mountain State has seen 70 degree readings during both the winter.  That's never happened before.

The flood watch is still in effect for today for most of Vermont and northern New York as the snow is rapidly melting, rivers are rising and ice jams are holding in place. As of dawn, I haven't seen many flood warnings in the region yet, but I have a feeling that will change soon. There was an ice jam on the Ausable River in New York that prompted flood warnings for awhile overnight.

The only good news regarding the flood watch is that although there will be showers around with the cold front this afternoon, those rains won't be particularly heavy and they won't last all that long in any particular spot.

After today, it's back to winter reality in Vermont with temperatures tonight bottoming out near 20 degrees by dawn and rising to only the low 30s Thursday afternoon. Which is normal for this time of year.

Beyond that, we're still in a weather pattern in which there's a strong ridge of warm high pressure to out southeast and cold air over the continent. That will drive a few  modest storm systems by us through the weekend.

It'll be warm enough so that most of the precipitation will be rain, but snow will mix in at times. There will be some light accumulations in the mountains, but not remotely enough to replace what was lost in this heat wave.

While we Vermonters are basking in summer warmth for at least part of today, freezing rain in the middle of the country extends as far south as central Texas.  

A conveyor belt of deep moisture and heavy rain that started a couple days ago continues to run from northeast Texas to the Great Lakes.

Flood warnings and watches continue to extend from Texas to Michigan. Some areas have had up to five inches of rain already. Another six or seven inches of rain or locally more is forecast over the next several days in and near Arkansas, so flooding will continue to spread and get worse.

Flood Watch Continues, Southern Tornadoes, And, Snow?

As the rain began to fall in earnest today, the little brook
by my house was already muddy and high. 

Up here in New England, we're continuing with our flood watch for most of the region, as waves of rain move through today, as forecast.

Though there's still a flood risk for sure, the amount of rain we are now expected to get is just a smidge less than earlier forecasts, at least here in Vermont and the rest of the North Country.

The storm system causing this wet weather has gaps in its precipitation moving south to north up the East Coast.

That means it'll rain most, but not all of the time for the rest of the day and tonight. Sometimes the rain will come down quite heavily, sometimes it'll be pretty light.  As I write this at 12:45  p.m. Thursday, it's raining pretty hard in St. Albans, Vermont.

However, the rainfall, combined with snow melt and rain from a few days ago, is already raising water levels in area rivers.

Some will go over their banks by Friday.  If not sooner.

There are already some spotty flood warnings and advisories in parts of southern New England and New York State as rivers rise.

This isn't going to be a repeat of the devastating floods of Tropical Storm Irene in 2011, but you still want to take any flooding seriously.

That means you don't drive over flooded roads. The water might be too deep. It doesn't take much to float a car away. Even if the water is shallow, the flooding might have undermined the road, so you'll fall in if you try to drive over it.

It's always wiser to take a detour, even if it makes your trip a bit longer. Just deal with it, OK?

Rain will continue Friday, and gradually change to snow in the higher elevations later in the day. Some snow might reach valley floors Friday night, but there won't be a huge amount of accumulation if any.

So don't worry about a major return to winter. Plus, we're still expecting temperatures to get into the 60s to near 70 early next week for a brief, but welcome taste of full-on spring.

SNOW ELSEWHERE 

Places further west and even south did get some snow from this, or are about to. A few inches of snow piled up in Michigan during this storm, and accumulating snow is likely in the central Appalachians tonight.

Even there, the snow will quickly melt as spring keeps working to overwhelm the last vestiges of winter.

Also in the Great Lakes, high winds are pushing big crashing waves into many shorelines, including the Chicago lakefront today.

Out West, though, a major winter storm is going to hit the Sierra Nevada mountains again. (They often get heavy snows in April in the higher elevations of those mountains.)

This storm will be pretty hefty in California, with two to four feet of new snow expected at elevations above 6,000 feet.

Lower elevations of California can expect quite a bit of rain and wind out of this storm Friday and Saturday. After an incredibly wet winter, storms tapered off a bit in March, but it looks like California is going to get one or two last minute soakings in April to top off quite a water winter.

TORNADO UPDATE

Yesterday, I said we should hope for good luck in the Southeast with an expected tornado outbreak, and we kind of got that good luck, though not everybody would think so.

There was a lot of damage and some injuries, but no deaths that I know of. There was at least one very strong, long lasting tornado, the kind that people feared the most yesterday. But that tornado largely stayed out of large towns and cities. It also wasn't as wide and as long lasting as first reported.

That big tornado damaged many houses and trees in southwestern Georgia, though. And there were fewer tornadoes overall than there could have been, given the volatile weather situation. The Storm Prediction Center said there were 10 reports of tornadoes Wednesday, mostly in the Southeast.

Damage from tornadoes, flooding, high winds and hail were reported in several states from Missouri to South Carolina.

There is the chance for some severe thunderstorms in the Middle Atlantic States for the next few hours until the storm system's cold front passes off the coast.

Flood Watches Now Up In Vermont, Much Of The Rest Of The Northeast

Floodwaters rush across Route 15 in Cambridge, Vermont
during spring flooding in April, 2014. I expect similar
scenes in Vermont later this week. 

As expected, flood watches are flying now for Thursday into Saturday in much of the Northeast, including Vermont.

The culprits are melting snow and a wet, windy storm that's due here Tuesday.

The storm is likely to cause a nasty tornado and severe thunderstorm outbreak in the southeastern United States Wednesday, as I mentioned this morning. 

The storm will consolidate into a large system which will bring lots of moisture in off the Atlantic Ocean into the Northeast.

The flood watches cover most of Vermont, most of the eastern half of New York, pretty much all of southern New England, southern New Hampshire and parts of northern New Jersey.

In places like New York City and far southern New England, the problem won't be melting snow as much as the downpours that will be coming down.

Here in Vermont, the flood watch covers the entire state except the Northeast Kingdom and Grand Isle County. The rain won't be as heavy around here as it will be closer to the coast, but it will combine with snow melt to raise river levels.

It doesn't help that it rained today and the snow has been melting, so rivers are already running high. Even though we'll probably only get an inch or so of rain, that precipitation, combined with melting snow and those already high rivers, will almost certainly result in flooding.

Spring flooding in Cambridge, Vermont in April, 2014.
Similar floods are likely later this week.

The Northeast Kingdom will probably have a little less rain than the rest of the state during the upcoming storm, but I still wonder if the flood watch might be extended to that part of the state by Friday.

In Grand Isle County, there is, of course, no major rivers to flood. And there's much less snow there to melt than in most other parts of the Green Mountain State.  

Still, even in Grand Isle County, I'm sure there will be some wet basements and some brooks that go out of their banks a bit

For the rest of us, the flooding threat will start with small brooks and streams Thursday as an intial slug of rain blows through.  Low spots on area roads will probably flood, too.

As we go into Thursday night and Friday, the bigger rivers across the North Country will probably start to see some flooding.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says the rivers most likely to go over their banks Friday are the Ausable in New York and in Vermont, the Winooski and Mad rivers, plus the Otter Creek.

At the very least, I expect some of the traditional flood spots in Vermont to go under water by Friday, including low lying roads like Route 73 in southern Addison County, North Williston Road between Williston and Essex, the "Wrong Way Bridge" area in Cambridge, and Route 125 in Westford.

Beyond that, for those pining for spring, it's beginning to look like temperatures might make it into the 60s, possibly near 70 in Vermont toward the beginning or middle of next week.

Bring the spring greening on!

The February Heat Remains Ridiculous. I Have No Words....

A chance of severe thunderstorms today as far north
as Vermont, says the SPC. In February!!

The amazing February heat wave continued to mindbogglingly smash records across much of the eastern United States Friday, and some areas have one more day to go with this absolute ridiculousness.

Monthly all time record high temperatures always fall from time to time in various cities, but the sheer number of places that have had their hottest February day on record is just huge.

And some of those records were smashed by wide margins, and/or broken repeatedly over the course of a few days.

I counted at least 30 cities in the Northeast from Ohio to Massachusetts that tied or broke their all time February highs on Friday. That's a big number. That's on top of the dozens of cities, including Burlington and Montpelier, Vermont that set monthly record highs Thursday, or other cities in the Midwest Wednesday.

Some examples of temperatures Friday way far north would not have been the least bit unusual for July, but February. Just wow.

Among them: 74 in Albany, New York, 73 in Boston, and 71 in Buffalo (no lake effect snowstorms there yesterday, that's for sure!)

Other February record highs included 80 in Charleston, West Virginia, 77 in Erie, Pennsylvania and 78 in Cincinnati.

It got up to 107 degrees in southern Texas this week, which I think is a national record for United States's hottest February reading.

Here in Vermont, it cooled slightly in all but extreme southern parts of the state. It got up to 72 degrees in Bennington Friday, but most of the rest of Vermont was in the 40s and 50s.

However, more records will happen today. The warm front passed through Burlington, Vermont on its way north between 5 and 6 a.m this morning. At 5 a.m., it was 37 degrees in Burlington. The temperature jumped, incredibly, a full 18 degrees to 55 by 6 a.m.

That 55 ties the record high for the date in Burlington. We reached it by 6 a.m. Just wild.  r

There's also still an excellent shot at having the all time February high temperatures that were set Thursday in Vermont to be broken today.

For instance, in Burlington, the high reached 63 Thursday and the forecast high today is 65. Montpelier's forecast high of 64 degrees today would beat the February record of 62 set on Thursday.

The February heat isnt the only interesting bit of weather here in New England today. That flood watch is still in effect for good reason, given the fast-melting snow.

A long list of record highs in the East Friday.
Click on the image to make it bigger and easier ro read. 

And that cold front that's coming. You sure will notice when the cold front comes in from the west later today.

The temperature will abruptly tumble, perhaps 20 degrees within an hour. There will also likely be a brief burst of very heavy rain and possibly damaging wind gusts with the arrival of the front.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center actually has all of Vermont in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms later today.

The SPC actually has southwestern Vermont, and a stripe from eastern New York to Virginia in a slight risk zone for severe storms, which is a step up from marginal, meaning there's a bit of a higher risk of severe storms there than in the marginal risk area.

The Storm Prediction Center even has a very tiny risk of a brief tornado as far north as southwestern Vermont. In February! Don't hold your breath for a tornado because the risk is extremely low, but it could conceivably happen anywhere from  southwestern Vermont all the way south to Virginia.

Still, it' extremely rare to have the Storm Prediction Center hold out the possibility of severe thunderstorms in Vermont in February. This is just amazing.

The timing of the cold front would take it into northern New York mid to late afternoon and Vermont's Champlain Valley late in the afternoon or very early evening, then through the evening in the rest of Vermont and New Hampshire.

Tonight will bring the biggest risk of flooding since the snow will have been melting all day and we'll get that burst of rain this evening. Mainstem rivers like the Mississquoi and Winooski would still be high and/or flooding Sunday morning.

Be careful on those low spots! And don't drive on flooded roads.

Following the front, temperatures will end up at just a little warmer than normal Sunday, then it's back to well above normal temperatures most of next week.

It won't be record warm next week but it will still be awfully mild for the end of February and the beginning of March.

In a subsequent post in the coming couple of days I'll explore whether this heat wave has anything to do with climate change, because I know a lot of people are asking.

Yesterday Was Vermont's Weirdest February Weather Day Even, More Weirdness Coming

Weather dogs Tonks and Jackson enjoyed the record
February warmth Thursday on their St. Albans, Vermont deck.

There's that cliche that says, "That was one for the record books," but that phrase is the only way to describe Thursday in Vermont.

What a bizarre weather day.' And more weirdness is coming fast. Also note we're under a flood watch, to complicate matters further. More on that in a minute.

The headline of course was the warmth. Burlington and Montpelier set records for their all day warmest reading for any February day.

It hit 63 degrees in Burlington, besting the previous high for any February day, which had been 62 degrees on February 19, 1981.

Montpelier reached 62 degrees, also breaking the record for hottest February day. The old record was 61 set in 1997.

St. Johnsbury tied its all-time monthly high temperature of 62 degrees. The high temperature in Rutland reached 67 degrees Thursday. Bennington got up to70 degrees- in February! .

Record highs elsewhere in New England include 68 in Boston and Manchester, New Hampshire, 66 in Providence, Rhode Island, 65 in Concord, New Hampshire and 64 in Worcester, Massachusetts.

Here in Vermont, Thursday was an absolutlely, perfectly normal day -- for mid-May.  It was hazy, warm and breezy. Notably, across northern Vermont, there were billowing towering cumulus clouds and some brief downpours.

The mix of sun and convective showers lasted most of the afternoon where I live in St. Albans

These types of showers are common during the warm seasons - late spring and summer, but very, very rare in February.

The weirdness goes on today and tomorrow. I'll have to paraphrase Donald Trump here and say the showers yesterday in northern Vermont were part of a so-called cold front that sank through Vermont last evening.

I'm calling it so-called because it's still spectacularly warmer than normal behind the front, just not record warm.

The front will come back at us from the south as a warm front today, triggering showers and maybe even some thunderstorms this afternoon.

Towering cumulus clouds near St. Albans, Vermont late
Thursday afternoon. Such clouds are common in the late
spring and summer, but not in February. 

Yes, maybe thunderstorms. That, again, is very rare in a Vermont February. (There were already thunderstorms this morning in Massachusetts and western New York)

Then we get back into the warm air late tonight and Saturday.

You know those all-time February record high temperatures set Thursday? They're going to be challenged Saturday.

Yep! There's a chance that those new February records won't survive two days. Another weird thing, for sure.

A strong cold front will come in late Saturday. There will be a burst of pretty heavy rain Saturday afternoon and night, possibly accompanied by another rumble of thunder.

That's part of the reason why we're under that flood watch. 

Snow has obviously been melting wicked fast the past couple of days and that will continue. The showers and possible thunderstorms later today will add water to the mix. Then we get the record high temperatures again Saturday, then that expected burst of rain.

Initially, the threat from flooding tonight and Saturday morning will come from water collecting behind ice jams in rivers as the ice breaks up.

Later Saturday, Saturday night and into Sunday, rivers could flood in New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine because of the runoff brought on by the melting snow and rain.

By the way, the storm system causing this wacky weather is expected to produce severe thunderstorms and maybe a few tornadoes in Indiana, Ohio and southern Michigan. If Michigan gets a tornado today, it will be the earliest in the season for one in that state.

Further west, the storm is creating a big snowstorm. Yankton, South Dakota was at 75 degrees Tuesday. This morning, there's a fresh foot of snow on the ground. Quite a switch!

Next week, the weather in the Northeast will remain warmer than normal, though at this point I don't expect more record highs.

But the way things have been going, you never know.

Flood Threat Rising In Vermont, Surrounding Areas Now Through Wednesday

It's going to be a gorgeous April Saturday here in Vermont with sun and temperatures reaching the low 60s.  

Raging floodwaters crash through trees along
the Lamoille River in Cambridge, Vermont during
spring flooding in April, 2011. Similar scenes
are possible in Vermont, New York and New
Hampshire early next week. 

And that is the beginning of some problems.

Yes, I'm being a killjoy for going negative on some well deserved springlike weather, but today's warmth will help set the stage for what could be some fairly substantial flooding.

Most of the snow is gone from Vermont valley floors, but there's still quite a bit in the mountains.

It's been warm the past few days. Some snow has melted and rivers have risen.

That trend toward rising rivers will continue, starting today and continuing over the next few days as it gets warmer and warmer and rain enters the picture.

The National Weather Service in South Burlinton has got Vermont and northern New York under a flood watch through Wednesday.

It looks like any flooding this weekend won't be too serious. Just the usual low lying fields and low spots on local roads could go under water. But things could get much worse Monday and Tuesday, and maybe into Wednesday.

Here's what the flood watch says:

THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN THE

  MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD ON MAINSTEM RIVERS AS
  WELL AS SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANYONE LIVING NEAR THE
  LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS MAY WANT TO THINK ABOUT TAKING
  PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS THIS WEEKEND TO PREPARE FOR POTENTIALLY
  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

On Sunday, a warm front will cross Vermont, bringing some rain, especially to northern Vermont and much warm temperatures. Clouds and rain will hold temperatures in the 60s Sunday, but they won't fall much Sunday night.

Monday turns really, really warm, with readings well up into the 70s, possibly near 80 in much of Vermont, northern New York and a good chunk of the rest of northern New England. That will get the snow in the mountains melting super fast, and river water will rise accordingly.

Then a very slow moving cold front enters the picture. Little storms will ripple south to north along the front as it slowly drifts eastward across New York and New England. With a lot of moisture to work with the front and its parade of little storms has the potential to dump 1 to 2 inches of rain across the region.

Normally, two inches of rain wouldn't cause much of a flood worry. But by the time the rain arrives, rivers will probably be nearing or even already over flood stage.

So the stage is set for something that could definitely be worse than the usual springtime lowland flooding. At least moderate flooding is a good bet, which in some areas is high enough to damage some buildings.

The worst case scenario is flooding like that in the Lamoille River basin in Vermont in late April, 2011. Then, buildings were badly damaged in flooding in a stretch from Wolcott to Cambridge.  Such flooding could happen anywhere in Vermont, and parts of New York and New Hampshire by Tuesday.

Such damaging floods aren't guaranteed, but there's a chance. So if you're in a flood prone area, I'd spend the weekend taking precautions. If you can move stuff that would get damaged in a flood, I'd do it. An example might be some store owners in Montpelier, Vermont, which is along the Winooski River.

If you have backstock in your basements, I'd get those items to upper floors now. Homeowners in floodprone areas should get stuff out of the way too. And have a plan to get out of the way pronto in case the rivers rise.

Lake Champlain waters will rise, too, though don't look for a repeat of the 2011 record flood disaster. As of Friday, the lake level was at 97.7 feet, which is a little more than two feet below minor flood stage.

Flood stage is 100 feet, and the lake could reach that level as soon as the end of  next week. At 100 feet, there's minor flooding along the lake, with some low lying roads under water, a few shoreline parks get some flooding and there's often some minor shoreline erosion if it's windy.

My guess is Lake Champlain won't go into major flood territory unless there's a lot of heavy rain later in April and in May.

After the very wet cold front goes through Tuesday night, temperatures will crash. It will snow Tuesday night and Wednesday, and maybe pile up a few inches in the mountains. Valleys might even get a coating. But that won't last long. It's April, so readings will inch toward 50 degrees by the end of the week.

I'll caution again that a serious flood early next week is not certain. We could get lucky and get less rain than forecast, or maybe it won't get as warm as predictions indicate. Then things wouldn't be so bad.  Keep watching forecasts for updates on this one.

But better safe than sorry, right?

Another Wintry, Messy New England Storm Tonight

Time for some replacement snow!  

Heavy, wet snow weighs down trees in
St. Albans, Vermont in April, 2010.
Similar scenes are possible in
northern New England by Sunday morning.
 

The way this spring has worked in northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire is as soon as a bit of snow thaws away, Mother Nature replaces what was lost with another storm.

And, after yesterday's replacement snow melted in afternoon rain, we've got another wintry storm to deal with.

This one has high bust potential, which means in some places the forecast really won't work out as forecast.

Here's what we're sure of: There is a storm loaded with lots of moisture and lots of precipitation heading into the Northeast tonight.

Flood watches are up from eastern Pennsylvania, through much of metro New York on up into southern and central New England into coastal Maine. There, it looks like a safe bet there will be mostly if not all rain, and plenty of it.

Hence, the flood watches.

Once you get into northern New England and northern New York, things get really, really tricky in the forecast department.

Warm air high up in the atmosphere will blow in, which would want to keep precipitation rain. But cold air is going to bleed down from southern Quebec near the surface. With warm air above and cold air below, that would argue for sleet and freezing rain.

But when heavy precipitation moves in, the entire atmosphere overhead cools. That would argue for snow.

So which of these three influences win out? The low level cold air? The higher level warm air? The heavy precipitation cooling everything down? All of the above?

Who knows? All this means we're not entirely sure what's going to come out of the sky tonight in northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and the northwestern two thirds of Maine.

The best guess, in northern New York and Vermont is wet snow, mixed with rain at the beginning of the storm this evening and as it tapers off Sunday. Sleet mixing in is a good bet.  Freezing rain is a risk, too. The best chances of heavier accumulations of ice from freezing rain is in the high elevations from 1,000 to 2,000 feet, according to the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

This snow, slush and ice is all going to be wet and heavy, so look out for fallen branches, trees and powerlines overnight in northern New York and northern New England.

The guestimate of how much snow and slush will accumulate is about three to six inches.

In the southern third of Vermont, the southern two thirds of New Hampshire and in New York from Lake George south, it seems as if most of the precipitation will be rain. It might be enough, combine with melting snow, to loosen ice in frozen rivers, so ice jams are a risk.

It's kind of hard to say exactly where the line will be in this region between wintry precipitation and mostly rain, so you sort of have to play by ear tonight.

Precipitation lightens up, but light rain and light freezing rain will continue much of Sunday night into Monday morning in many spots.

In other parts of the nation, winter rolls on, too. Blizzard and winter storm watches are up for much of the Dakotas and Minnesota Monday as yet another wintry storm system blasts through that region.

At this rate, towns will hold community snowball fights on the Fourth of July.