"Potential" Tropical Storm Is Really Being Hyped

Just one of many potential tracks for Wannabe Isias.  Expect
forecasts to shift around a lot in the coming days.

If I were to believe some media and social media posts, I'd thing a Category 999 hurricane was about to blow Florida out of existence.

Before we got on with this post, some facts to clear up.

I hope you understand that I know that hurricanes only go up to Category 5; there's no such thing a "Category 999."

Category 5 is the worst hurricane you can get.  There is currently no Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.   In fact, there are no hurricanes anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

It's possible a tropical system of some sort could affect Florida over the weekend, but we don't know for sure if that will happen, and if it does, how big a deal it would be.

So here's the non-hype version, as best as I understand it.  If you want more information beyone what I'm about to describe, check out what real live scientists are saying over at the National Hurricane Center. 

The hype you're hearing is prompted by something called "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine." As of this morning, it was causing really crappy weather way out there in the Lesser Antilles, and will probably do the same to Haiti and the Dominican Republic tomorrow.

They haven't given "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine" a name yet because it hasn't developed a well defined circulation.  It's just a mass of gusty thunderstorms that overall have some spin, but haven't congealed into a storm yet. But as of early this morning, it was getting close to that level.

When it does (or even if) it gets its act together, it will be named Isaias.  If you're curious, it's pronounced "ees-ah-EE-ahs."

As you're probably sick of hearing from me by now, forecasting the strength of direction of any tropical system can get tricky.

It's especially so with Wannabe Isaias.  It's a huge clump of thunderstorms, and where a center eventually forms will determine its path and strength.  Right now, even the folks at National Hurricane Center are throwing up their hands a bit with this one.

But they're giving it a try, because that's what they do.

If Wannabe Isaias gets it act together today, it might get punched down to a wannabe again if it hits the Dominican Republic directly.  The mountains there will screw it up.

If Wannabe Isaias detours around that mountainous island, it could keep getting stronger.

This is where the Florida hype comes in. Wannabe Isaias  could  cause trouble in places like Puerto Rico, the Virgin Island, maybe Cuba or the Bahamas.

Forecasts tracks as of this morning take this thing toward Florida, but remember what I just said: Where the center of Wannabe Isaias eventually establishes itself will determine a lot about its future path.

It could pass south of Florida and go into the Gulf of Mexico.  Maybe it will hit Florida. Or it'll curve north and then east and miss the United States entirely.  Note to Donald Trump: We don't know if Wannabe Isaias will affect Alabama. 

We just don't know any of this for certain yet.  Don't believe anyone who tells you they know for sure where this is going. They don't. At least not yet.  And don't even get me started with questions on whether Wannabe Isaias will affect Vermont and if it does, how so?  Use your Magic 8 ball for that one.

As mentioned above, we also don't know what kind of strength or lack thereof Wannabe Isaias will have.

So here's what you SHOULD do regarding Wannabe Isaias:

1. Continue monitoring the storm, especially if you live in or have interests in the Virgin Islands, Hait, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and Florida.  No need for any kind of panic, by the way.

2. It's early in the hurricane season.  If you live in hurricane prone areas, or flood prone areas, now is a great time to pop down to Home Depot or Lowe's or whatever to pick up your hurricane preparedness supplies. This is whether or not Wannabe Isaias amounts to anything. Wear your mask  into the stores, please!

3. Have a plan in case Wannabe Isaias or any other tropical storm or hurricane comes along.  If told to evacuate, where would you go?  Make it easy to grab important documents and medications and such if you have to go.  Think about what you would do with pets.  Add in some extra planning because of this Covid pandemic.

4.  If this thing does get close to you and the National Hurricane Center and local emergency managers start barking orders, like prepare or even evacuate, do what they say. It'll make it easier on everyone. Including yourselves.

Vermont Is The New Florida - Continued

A strong thunderstorm over Lake Champlain last summer, More
potentially strong to severe storms are firing up todau. 

If the headline on this post seems familiar, it's because I wrote a similar headline in this blog thingy back in late June.

The heat and humidity has been pretty consistent since the third week in June. On and on it goes.

As uncomfortable as it is, at least there's some rain chances.  Believe it or not, that rain prospect is in part due to the influence of a possible tropical depression. or storm.  Yes, that sounds like Florida, too.   I'll get to that in a bit.

Burlington got to 89 degrees yesterday, just missing the chance to notch yet another 90 degree day this summer.  Don't worry, it looks like there will be two more days above 90 degrees this week. Um, yay?

Today would reach 90 degrees if not for a disturbance coming through that will touch off a fair numer of showers and storms.  We need the rain, still. Especially in the northwestern part of the state. Of course, the far northwest has the lowest chances of rain with this, though there's still roughly even odds.

It was frustrating here in St. Albans, Vermont early this morning with a couple flashes of lightning and claps of thunder, but the rain with that storm blew by just to my north.

The showers and storms with this incoming disturbance fired up in Quebec pretty early - before noon. They're moving southeast as of early afternoon and other pop ups are forming in New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.

A few storms, especially from the Champlain Valley east, could be strong or locally severe, with strong, gusty winds, hail, torrential downpours and lightning. Lightning detector maps were already showing lots of lightning as of 2 p.m. All of Vermont, New Hampshire and most of Maine is under a severe thunderstorm watch until 10 p.m.

Storms should wind down this evening

ON WITH THE HEAT

The core of the latest burst of heat will be over us Thursday and Friday. Heat advisories are up in the Champlain Valley for Thursday and Friday.  And in many places around the Great Lakes and Northeast, too.

Highs will get into the 90s for most of us both days.  Humidity will be even higher than it was during that horrible June heat wave.

An interesting thing might happen with the heat Friday, and may worsen it.  A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form off the South Carolina coast soon and move northward.

It'll never get that strong, but as it approaches coastal New England Friday, it will pump up the hot ridge of high pressure over northern New England, northern New York and Quebec. That, in turn,  has the potential for boosting temperatures even higher. It's not definite, but it's possible we'll see highs in the mid to upper 90s in some of the hotter spots Friday.

It depends on clouds and the path of that tropical or subtropical system.

WAIT, TROPICAL STORM?

Yes, I did say tropical storm.  If wannabe Tropical Storm Fay develops, it would most likely track toward southeastern New England, or offshore.

It would bring a slug of torrential rains to southern and eastern New England, and perhaps some gusty winds. Wannabe Fay will probably go to far east to directly affect most of Vermont.

However, it will bring added tropical moisture into Vermont, just as another disturbance approaches for the west.

At this point, it appears this situation will give us a terribly oppressive weekend with sky high humidity. But this scenario could also give us numerous showers and storms Saturday afternoon and evening, and maybe into Sunday.

The good news is if this pans out, we'll get some beneficial rains.  A bit of potential bad news is some slow moving storms this weekend could cause some local flash floods. We certainly don't know that for sure yet, but it's something to keep an eye on.

THEN DO WE GET RID OF THE HEAT?

The answer is no.  But you kind of knew that, right?

We do get a temporary reprieve.  That disturbance which could give us the rains over the weekend will probably "cool" us off to readings early next week that are only a little warmer than average. It will still be a little uncomfortable because the humidity won't totally crash. But it will definitely be better.

Not for long, it looks like. Early indications are another burst of high heat and humidity could surge into northern New England during the second half of next week.

Sigh.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Lurks. Eventual Gulf Coast Hit?

The projected path of Tropical Storm Cristobal from the
National Hurricane Center. This forecast will surely be
adjusted in the coming days as more data comes in

As was pretty much expected, Tropical Storm Cristobal formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday.  It is the third tropical storm of the season in the Atlantic basin, the earliest on record for a "C" storm.

As we know, the names of each season's tropical storms and hurricanes go in alphabetical order.  Last year, we didn't have a storm that started with a "C" until August.

By this morning, the National Hurricane Center said Cristobal had strengthened to the point where it had top winds of 60 mph. It was just making landfall early this morning on the southeastern Mexican coast.

Cristobal is moving very slowly, so it will dump huge amounts of rain in the areas it hits later today. No doubt there will be catastrophic flooding as the storm is forecast to dump 20 inches or so of rain on some areas.

As noted yesterday, parts of El Salvadore and Guatamala were hit with torrential rains from Tropical Storm Amanda this past weekend.  Additional rainfall from Cristobal will raise rainfall totals in parts of those two countries to 35 inches since last Saturday.

That will make already horrific flooding even worse.

For persepective, 35 inches of rain is very roughly how much precipitation we get in Vermont during the course of a whole year.

As is often the case, what happens to Cristobal in the coming days is pretty uncertain.  It's expected to  linger near the shore of the Bay of Campeche for the next couple of days.  If the storm center stays very close to the shore, it will weaken slowly.  If it moves inland more, it will weaken faster.

That either/or scenario might have implications for the United States Gulf Coast.  Steering currents are expected to eventually draw Cristobal northward, which would make it aim toward perhaps Louisiana late Sunday night or Monday.

If Cristobal weakens a lot over the next couple of days, that could mean maybe a weaker, less impactful storm on the U.S. Gulf Coast. If Cristobal maintains its shape better between now and Thurday, it will have more ability to strenghten further as it heads north through the Gulf of Mexico over the upcoming weekend.

Under that stronger scenario, Cristobal could actually be a hurricane once it reaches the Gulf Coast. If it is a hurricane at U.S. landfall, it would be the earliest in the year on record a hurricane hit the United States. The current record holder is Hurricane Alma, which struck Florida on June 9, 1966.

People in and around Louisiana ought to keep an eye on Cristobal, as it could really cause some flooding problems if it gets or keeps its act together.

Semi-Tropical Storm Nestor: Weak On Paper, Nasty In Reality

Tropical Storm Nestor about to make landfall in northwestern Florida
this morning.

Tropical Storm Nestor, if you can call it that, is expected to make landfall in northwestern Florida today..

It doesn't at all look like a classic tropical storm. It looks more like just a regular old nasty batch of thunderstorms arranged in a comma shape. 

Top sustained winds  this morning were  a ho-hum 50 mph. It was even kind of hard to pick out its center of circulation, as it mostly consisted of rough weather to the north and east of the center. 

So on paper, Nestor is not much to worry about. In reality, though it's a pretty rough one.

It's coming ashore, as I said in northwestern Florida. The topography of the region is helping make the storm surge from Nestor worse than it otherwise would be, so flooding is a problem.

As you can see on a map, the coastline of western Florida makes an arc like a tilted, backwards "C" between Pananma City in the panhandle, and Tampa, halfway down the west coast.

Water is being driven from the southwest toward the northeast into this backwards "C".  That tends to shove and converge water into the middle of this curving coastline.  Which means Nestor is capable o storm surges of three to five feet above normal water levels.

Since much of this coastline is low and flat, water can definitely push inland past the beaches into homes and businesses. There was already a round of storm surge flooding last night, and there will be another one today.

Friction with land can also help make the disorganized storms with Nestor, creating tornadoes. There were already a couple last night, including one that sent debris flying across busy Interstate 4 near Lakeland Florida.

More tornadoes will probably touch down in Florida and Georgia today.

What's left of Nestor will move up over the eastern Carolinas today and tomorrow, then out ot sea.  It won't really affect Vermont much, except perhaps add a little moisture to a cold front coming in Tuesday night.

That cold front, and not Nestor, will be the main player for us here in Vermont. We'll get a decent slug of rain out of it but not nearly as much as we got from that nor'easter on Thursday. So the flood threat looks pretty low at this point

Humberto Forms, Looks Like It Will Miss United States, But....

Tropical Storm Humberto looking large but disorganized in the
Bahamas Saturday morning. It is expected to organize and
grow into a hurricane once its north of the islands.

As expected Tropical Storm Humberto has formed in the Bahamas.

Even though it's not very strong, it's near the Abaco Islands in the Bahamas, which was basically wiped off the map by Hurricane Dorian a couple weeks ago.  Which means Humberto is going to cause more misery in the northern Bahamas as it slowly strengthens and moves north.

At least it's moving, unlike Dorian. Humberto is expected by the National Hurricane Center to become a hurricane, but only when it's safely north of the Bahamas.

More good news: It looks like Humberto is going to head east and northeast after that, away from the United States coastline.  

I did mention this week that the overall weather pattern over the western Atlantic Ocean favors tropical storms and hurricanes heading toward the United States. That's due to strong high pressure in this region.

But, timing is everything. While Humberto wants to move north, a weak, temporary dip in the jet stream east of New England will cause an area of weakness in that high pressure. The dip in the jet stream and that weakness looks like it wants to take Humberto out to sea.

This out-to-sea scenario comes with a caveat: It's possible that dip in the jet stream could keep moving on, prompting Humberto to reverse course and head back to the United States. At this point it seems unlikely, but some computer models do show this scenario. It's worth it to watch and see.

Additionally, the weather pattern that is favorable for tropical storms and hurricanes could easily reassert itself. There are several disturbances way out there in the Atlantic Ocean that the National Hurricane Center is watching. Some of them could develop into tropical storms and head toward the United States.

That is just speculation at the moment, but since we're still in the peak of hurricane season, all these systems will need to be watched.

Meanwhile, some residents of Vermont's Champlain Valley could be forgiven if they thought they experienced their own tropical storm this morning.

Of course, there is no tropical storm anywhere near Vermont. But strong high pressure to the east of us, and  cold front coming from the west - which is part of that dip in the jet stream that should take Humberto away from the United States - is funneling strong winds up the Champlain Valley.

I noticed a gust 51 mph at Burton Island and  49 mph at Colchester Reef this morning. On my exposed hillside in St. Albans, I would stay some gusts are going a little over 40 mph and some small branches are down on my property.

This windy state of affairs should continue most of today. Expect a few downed branches and maybe a couple of power failures here and there. As of 8 a.m. today, there were a smattering of outages, mostly in Chittenden County. Statewide, only about 50 homes and businesses were without power, so that's not extreme, thank goodness.

Winds should calm down nicely by this evening.

Bahamas Tropical Storm Nightmare, South Dakota Flood, Vermont Wind

Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 building steam this morning near the Bahamas
and likely to become Tropical Storm Humberto within a couple days.

This is so, so NOT what the northern Bahamas needs.

Things are still in full crisis mode in the devastated northern islands of the Bahamas after Hurricane Dorian a couple weeks back.

Now, the same area is under a tropical storm warning. 

Normally, the Bahamas can manage a "mere" tropical storm, but torrential rains and winds in excess of 39 mph are going to make a terrible situation worse.

The culprit is something now called "Potential Tropical Cyclone #9." This is the National Hurricane Center's way of alerting the public to a near-term threat from a developing system that hasn't quite made it to tropical storm intensity. Yet.

Forecasts for Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 are still all over the place, but it appears, just like Dorian, it will slowly, grindingly head through the Bahamas and probably near the Florida east coast. The only good news is it won't be a Category 5 hurricane. Chances are, it will stay below hurricane strength.

But Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 will probably bring a prolonged period of gusty winds and heavy rain to the Bahamas, and a tropical storm warning is out for many of those islands, including the ones hardest hit by Dorian.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for much the Florida east coast this weekend.

Given the uncertain forecast for the path of this wannabe tropical storm, I'm sure there will be updates and changes to its expected impacts.

SOUTH DAKOTA FLOODS

South Dakota cannot seem to catch a break this year. Or last year even.

Last year was among the wettest on record in parts of South Dakota. This year is even wetter. All this was made worse by widespread downpours this week.  A large part of southeastern South Dakota received four to as much as ten inches of rain in 48 hours earlier this week.

This is in addition to the the three tornadoes that blasted through Sioux Falls, South Dakota the other day.

Widespread flooding is occurring in South Dakota.  Parts of the Big Sioux River reached record high levels. The previous highest flood along the river near Dell Rapids was set just a few months ago in March, the Sioux Falls Argus Leader reports.

Parts of Interstate 90 in eastern South Dakota also shut down because of flooding. Much of the town of Madison was under water Thursday after six to 10 inches of rain fell in the area.

Sioux Falls has had 34 inches of rain so far this year. Normally, only 20 inches or so should have fallen by now.  It's been so wet that parts of the James River between Huron and Yankton have been continuously above flood stage since March.

Video of Madison, South Dakota is at the bottom of this post.

VERMONT WIND

Once we get into autumn, cold fronts and storms can cause relatively strong winds in Vermont, especially when south winds funnel up the Champlain Valley.

This type of thing looks like it will happen late Friday night and Saturday, when gusts in the Champlain Valley could reach 45 mph.

Leaves are still on the trees, obviously. In strong winds, the leaves act like little sails, catching the wind and bending branches more than if the foliage was already on the ground. This makes it more likely we'll see a few scattered trees and branches down and a few spot power failures.

This won't be a major event - no big destruction with this. But don't be surprised if your yard is littered with twigs and branches by Saturday evening.

VIDEO:

Here's a drone video of serious flooding in Madison, South Dakota:

Will A Tropical Storm With An Origin Over Tennessee Form In Gulf Of Mexico?

The National Hurricane Center is telling us there's a decent chance that Tropical Storm Barry could form in the Gulf of Mexico this week.

This computer model shows the chances of a tropical storm
over any shaded area between now and July 21. Note
this is just ONE computer model and there is a lot of
uncertainty over whether Tropical Storm Barry
will form in the Gulf of Mexico. Take this
map with a giant grain of salt. 

That fact isn't all that unusual. Tropical storms do form pretty often this early in the hurricane season.

Water in the  Gulf of Mexico is easily warm enough to support a tropical system. This type of storm needs very warm water to survive.

The origins of wannabe Tropical Storm Barry seem a bit unusual. But it's also the type of thing that happens occasionally. I should back up and explain.

An area of low pressure, really just a lame swirl of showers and thunderstorms, has been meandering slowly from western Tennessee down toward the Southeast.

This little system is not impressive, and this morning, had few showers associated with it. During the afternoons and evenings, this system has been popping up some pretty good thunderstorms in the South

However, sometimes, it doesn't take much to set up a tropical storm, or at least the potential for one. This weak little stormish thing is forecast to sink south into the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

There, it will start to feed off the warm Gulf of Mexico water and perhaps develop into a tropical storm. It's already got some spin to it, which could also help its development. The National Hurricane  Center gives this a 70 percent chance of forming into a tropical storm within the next five days or so.

This all goes to prove that a tropical storm does not need to have its origins in the tropics, although most tropical storms and hurricanes have their beginnings over tropical ocean waters.

Still, wannabe Barry isn't all that unusual. Sometimes, a cold front will drop into the Gulf of Mexico and then stall. A few days later, a tropical storm or hurricane pops out of the stalled front.

If wannabe Barry forms, nobody is really sure where it will go. It does pose the risk of dumping very heavy rain somewhere along the Gulf Coast of the United States. Time will tell.

Like Somalia Needed This: Tropical Storm Causes Death, Destruction

Tropical Storm Sagar hit near Djibouti, on the far western end of
the Gulf of Aden. 

A terrible tropical storm struck Somalia over the weekend, killing at least 16 people and causing widespread destruction.  

Tropical Storm Sagar was reported the strongest tropical storm on record in Somalia. It packed 60 mph winds and heavy rain.

Here in the United States and other developed countries, a storm with 60 mph winds and downpours would cause relatively light damage. Plus, we're used to storms of that caliber.

But poverty-ridden, dry Somalia does not normally get anything near anything like Sagar. This storm made landfall further west than any tropical storm in 52 years or record keeping on the northern Indian Ocean basin, according to the Category 6 blog. 

Tropical Storm Sagar caused flooding in Mogadishu, Somalia.
Photo by Feisal Omar/Reuters 

The storm was able to travel westward threading the needle between Yemen and Somalia in the Gulf of Aden before moving inland over flat, arid areas of far western Somalia.

What's worse, unusual rains hit Somalia in April - causing a lot of damage to agriculture and infrastructure. The April rains also primed the pump for even worse flooding.

Somalia remains an unstable country, with the terrorist group al-Shabab continues to spread terror and misery across that nation. So a tropical cyclone didn't help a lot.

Meanwhile, forecasters say another dangerous tropical storm is threatening to develop and could hit in or near Oman later in the week. It could attain hurricane strength, and also could cause very destructive flash floods in Oman and eastern Yemen later in the week.

We Actually Managed To Get Tropical Storm Arlene Out In The Atlantic

The swirls clouds in the center of this satellite photo of a
lot of clouds in the North Atlantic is Tropical Storm Arlene,
which was expected to get absorbed into the rest of the
clouds and dissipate later Friday. 

The other day, I told you about a subtropical storm trying to get going way out in the Atlantic Ocean.

It did, and did something I told you was highly unlikely: It turned into a pure tropical storm.

Yep, Tropical Storm Arlene was spinning way out in the Atlantic Ocean early Friday morning, way northwest of the Azores and way northeast of Bermuda.  It had sustained winds of 50 mph.

It joins Ana in 2003 as the only tropical storms known to have formed in the Atlantic in April.

Arlene is also the furthest north a tropical storm was found in the Atlantic this early in the season.

That doesn't mean it never happened before. Arlene was a tiny little thing embedded in a big area of storminess in the North Atlantic.

Before, say, 1970, when satellites really started taking pictures of the Earth's clouds from above, little tropical storms like this would almost surely have gone undetected.

Who knows? There might have been many April tropical storms that we never knew about.

Subtropical storms, as I mentioned the other day, are hybrids between storms with warm cores, and regular storms, that have cold upper level cores along with cold and warm fronts.

Arlene managed to transition to a warm core storm, but a lame one.

That's because it's core is indeed warmer than its surroundings, but its surroundings are cold. Water temperatures beneath Arlene are a little under 70 degrees. Usually you need water temperatures several degrees warmer than that at least to sustain a tropical storm. '

In any event, Arlene will get sucked up into the other storminess around it today and cease to exist. It poses no threat to any land areas.

Matthew Strengthens, Mid-Atlantic Floods

A strengthening Tropical Storm Matthew looked
healthy on visible satellite imagery Thursday morning.  

As expected, Tropical Storm Matthew was continues to strengthen as it cruised westbound through the Caribbean Sea,

At 8 a.m. Thursday, the National Hurricane Center said Matthew had top sustained winds of 70 mph, just short of hurricane strength. The Center said Matthew will very likely grow into a hurricane later today or tonight.  

The storm has already caused problems as it moved through the Lesser Antilles islands on Wednesday.

One person was killed by the storm on St. Vincent, a wind gust of 89 mph was reported at a high elevation station in St. Pierre, Martinique, and damage was reported in Barbados as well.

Matthew is over very warm water, and strong upper level winds over the storm that would interfere its development are forecast to weaken. Matthew could become a pretty damn strong hurricane

Most of the forecasts are still saying Matthew will take a sharp right turn northward Sunday or Monday, which would make the then-hurricane a threat to Jamaica, Cuba and/or Hispaniola.

After that, we still don't know what will happen. Matthew will likely weaken as it goes over the land masses and mountains of these islands, but could strengthen again once it gets by there.

Where it goes is an even bigger question. Some still take it up the Eastern Seaboard, some skirt it off the coast more so it wouldn't be a threat, and still others steer Matthew back westward into the Gulf of Mexico.

It all depends on how a strong high pressure ridge over the North Atlantic, a storm coming across the nation from the west, and that pesky, floody cut off low in the Ohio Valley and Northeast I talked about yesterday all interact. All those will determine the path of Matthew.

Speaking of that cut off low:

FLOODING:

As expected, flooding is ongoing and expected to continue today amid the heavy rains brought in by the cut off storm system that I talked about yesterday.

Southern parts of North Carolina, in and around Fayetteville, got the worst of it. So far, five to eight inches of rain has fallen there, and a flash flood emergency is ongoing.  Television station WNCN reported many water rescues from cars and homes in that region.

There are also numerous flood and flash flood warnings in parts of Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, and New Jersey. Several roads along the I-95 corridor were shut down by high water early this morning so I'm sure the commute into the Washington DC area this morning was an absolute joy.

More areas of heavy rain are forecast for the region today, so flooding will continue.

I still don't think much rain will make it into New England, which really needs it, but at least a little rain will come down over the weekend up there.

Tropical Storm Matthew Forms. Could Be East Coast Threat, But HIGHLY Uncertain

Tropical Storm Matthew is still disorganized over
the Lesser Antilles as of Wednesday, but is
forecast to consolidate and strengthen.

As expected, Tropical Storm Matthew formed near the Lesser Antilles this morning.

Even though it has barely formed and is still disorganized, it's got sustained winds of 60 mph.

As it consolidates itself, it will likely strengthen into a hurricane as it initially heads westward into and through the Caribbean Sea. 

It will be going over very warm water, record warm, in fact, so that's one big factor that favors strengthening.

There is potential Matthew, my namesake storm, could affect the East Coast, but before you panic, I'd hold off. The future path of this thing is highly uncertain from the point at which it gets to a position south of Hispaniola or Cuba.
It'll turn northward. Many of the forecasting computer models have a sharp northward turn, but when Matthew decided to head north is really open to question.

If it turns north sooner than expected, Matthew would slide east of Florida and probably head north out to sea, or at least far enough off the coast to not be a terrible thing for the East Coast.

OR, it could go east of Florida and then go directly north into New England from there, which would be really bad.

OR, if it turns north a bit laterit could smack right into Florida and cause big trouble there, then ride up along the East Coast as a weakening but still dangerous and flood-producing tropical storm,

OR if Matthew turns north even later than expected, the threat would be along the Gulf of Mexico.

So at this point, it's anybody's guess, so I suppose we'll all have to stay tuned, wait and see if Matthew will be disaster, or just another tropical puff of wind that evaporates before anything bad happens.

It's a waiting game at this point.

Julia The Weirdo Continues To Confuse Forecasters

Tropical Depression Julia was still a disorganized mess
off the Southeastern U.S. coast Sunday morning
but the weird little storm still has life in her.  

When last we left Tropical Storm Julia, we were remarking how weird it was that a cluster of thunderstorms that pretty much no chance of developing into a tropical storm did so.

And Julia did form into a tropical storm. Over land, which almost never happens. Over northeastern Florida, to be specific. Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes form over warm ocean water.

We thought Julia would live its entire short life over land, which would be unprecedented. But nope, she fooled us again, jumping to just offshore Georgia and dumping heavy rain on the coasts of that state and South Carolina.

Next, we were assured that strong upper level winds would tear Julia apart and it would be a nothing burger by now.

Wrong again!  Tropical Depression Julia, downgraded from a tropical storm a few days ago is still east of Georgia and South Carolina, just further offshore now, and showing signs of making a comeback.

Julia is still a disorganized mess, with those strong upper level winds keeping thunderstorms well away from its center. Tropical systems don't develop or get stronger when this kind of thing happens.  You want the powerful thunderstorms to fire up near the center of the storm.

Usually, when the upper level winds keep up, the thunderstorm production finally dies, and so does the wannabe tropical system.

Julia is still firing up thunderstorms, though. Persistent little devil. And now, those strong upper level winds might relax, and that would give Julia a chance to restrengthen. Also some signs point to Julia drifting north toward North Carolina.

Julia has confused and put eggs on the faces of just about every hurricane forecasters since she formed last week. I bet she will continue to do so. Which means anything could happen with Julia. Stay tuned.

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Karl is out there in the middle of the Atlantic. Unlike Julia, Karl's generally behaving, taking a very typical path from the west coast of Africa and traveling westward across the tropical Atlantic.

He's expected to be upgraded to a hurricane in a few days, which is not unusual for this type of system. It's also expected to recurve to the north, away from the East Coast. Again, this happens a lot.

However, a small number of forecast models nudge Karl a little closer to the East Coast eventually. Doubt that will happen, but it's worth keeping half an eye on anyway.

We're Likely To See Tropical Storm Earl Any Minute Now

This storminess south of Hispaniola today
is likely to strengthen into Tropical Storm
Earl later today or tonight. 

Last week I said the tropical Atlantic was getting active, and sure enough, a new tropical storm looks like it will get going any minute now.

One of the weather disturbances that I said was way out over the central Atlantic raced westward and now it's in the western Caribbean already and is approaching Jamaica. 

It's pretty well organized and getting more organized, but doesn't yet have a full, circular wind pattern that you need to declare this a tropical storm.

Still, winds are running at 40 to 45 mph north of the storm's center, says the National Hurricane Center.

The weather system's circulation will probably become whole later today and tonight, and that will mean we'll have Tropical Storm Earl.

Wannabe Earl will probably keep zipping along on a generally westbound direction and will threaten Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and/or Guatemala later in the week.

Earl could easily strengthen into a nasty hurricane by the time it reaches Mexico or Central America. Upper air patterns favor strengthening, and the ocean water in the path of Wannabe Earl is at near record highs.

In general, the warmer the water, the more likely it is for  a tropical storm or hurricane to strengthen.

Stay tuned! 

Yet ANOTHER Early Tropical Storm Might Form

That patch of clouds in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
on Sunday could become Tropical Storm Danielle 

UPDATE Mon. Morning:

This disturbance did indeed strengthen to Tropical Storm Danielle early this morning.

As I noted Sunday, this is the earliest the fourth tropical storm of the year has formed in the Atlantic Ocean.

Danielle remains weak and disorganized. Top sustained winds are 40 mph, making it barely tropical storm strength.

It'll move inland today and then dissipate, causing some flash flooding in parts of Mexico in the process.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

There's an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche, off Mexico's east coast that could become a tropical storm by Monday.

If it does become a tropical storm, it will easily be the earliest on record the fourth tropical storm of the year formed in the Atlantic Basin. If it becomes a tropical storm, they'll name it Danielle.

The would-be tropical storm was an area of showers and thunderstorms in the far western Gulf of Mexico Sunday afternoon.

The storms were slowly becoming more organized, and the National Hurricane Center gave it an 80 percent chance of becoming at least a tropical depression.

A tropical depression is a weak version of a tropical storm, and are not given names. If sustained winds with this thing go up to 39 mph or more, it'll become Tropical Storm Danielle.

Wannabe Danielle doesn't have much time to strengthen before it makes landfall in Mexico Monday. Once it comes ashore, it'll dissipate, but not before dropping heavy rains that could lead to flash floods.

The chances of wannabe Danielle reaching hurricane strength -75 mph winds - is almost nil.  This storm will also not affect weather in the United States to any great extent.

Just because the start of the Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season has been very busy doesn't necessarily mean this will be a blockbuster year for such storms.

The National Hurricane Center is predicting an average year for hurricanes and tropical storms. El Nino, which tends to suppress Atlantic tropical storm activity is dead, and probably will be replaced by La Nina.

La Nina is a cool patch of water in the eastern Pacific Ocean that influences weather patterns and can make Atlantic Ocean tropical storms and hurricanes more likely. But again, we're not looking at an extreme year.

Still, it only takes one powerhouse of a hurricane hitting the United States to cause an epic disaster.

We've gone a record number of years without a major hurricane striking the U.S. coast, so we're way overdue.

A major hurricane is one with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

Plus, it doesn't take a major hurricane to cause epic damage.  Superstorm Sandy in 2012 was transitioning into a non-tropical storm, but caused an immense disaster along the East Coast.

In 2011, Hurricane Irene became a tropical storm with winds dropping below 75 mph soon after landfall on the East Coast, but still caused record flooding and lots of deaths in New York and Vermont.

Danielle won't be much of a threat to the United States, but we still need to keep an eye out for dangerous tropical storms and hurricanes, especially as the hurricane season ramps up in August and September.

Stormy, Maybe Even Tornadic Trouble On U.S. East Coast This Sunday

An enhance risk of severe storms and maybe some
tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic states Sunday. 

Sunday sure is shaping up to be a turbulent day along the East Coast, with what appears to be an upcoming outbreak of severe storms and maybe even some tornadoes in the Middle Atlantic states, and flooding elsewhere.

A storm system that's expected to be quite strong for this time of year is likely to cross the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada.

Below that, extending into the United States, will be an energetic cold front approaching the East Coast.

A lot of parameters seem to be coming into place for what could be a oddly placed tornado outbreak extending most likely through Maryland, the Washington DC area, Virginia and on into North Carolina, and maybe some states surrounding these regions.

The air will become humid. And highly unstable due to that approaching cold front. Winds will veer with height, setting the stage for what NOAA's Storm Prediction Center expects will be some supercell thunderstorms.

Supercells can happen anywhere but are most common in the Midwest and in the spring, in the South. They tend to be long-lasting powerhouse thunderstorms that can rotate, drop huge hailstones, produce very damaging winds and, often, tornadoes.

Not everyone in the area I mentioned will see a tornado. In fact, not everyone there will see a severe thunderstorm.  But the Storm Prediction  Center has already noted an enhanced risk of severe weather for the region, which is a higher level of alert than I usually see two days in advance.

In general, the greatest threat in the Mid-Atlantic will be from very strong, damaging straight line winds, but I think there will be at least a few tornadoes.

Definitely something to worry about in such a heavily populated part of the country.

Further to the south, another tropical storm will try to get going in the Gulf of Mexico. I don't think upper level winds are favorable enough to produce what would be Tropical Storm Colin. But something will get going in the Gulf, even if it's not a true tropical storm.

The upshot is very heavy rain and flooding for Florida from this thing toward Sunday.

New England will be too far north to get severe storms, but it is in for a drenching Sunday and Monday. Normally, I'd be worried about flash flooding in the New England from this, but it's been so dry up there until now that the risk is lower than it otherwise would be.

Still, this storm system is dynamic enough to produce very heavy rain, so there's still a chance of some localized flooding Sunday afternoon or night, or Monday, for much of New England.

Following all this chaos, it will turn much cooler in the Northeast next week than it has been for the past two weeks or so.

Meanwhile,  a heat wave with some record high temperatures is starting along the West Coast and is likely to continue into the weekend.

Possible Tropical Storm Bonnie Steals Media Spotlight From Much Worse Texas Flood

KHOU's Tiffany Craig reports
Darren Mitchell took this
photo of water covering
the windows of his
submerged car with
him inside. At last report,
tragically, he's still missing.
He posted the photo on Facebook
just before the car was swept away.

I notice today the media attention is all on a tropical depression northeast of the Bahamas.

It might turn into Tropical Storm Bonnie today and will probably cause a little gusty wet weather in South Carolina coast this weekend.

A tropical storm in May! How novel! Especially since the Atlantic hurricane season doesn't officially start until June 1.

While wannabe Bonnie should be taken seriously, given its potential for some gusty winds and potentially flooding rains in South Carolina, I'm guessing this won't be as big a deal as say, the thunderstorms that have been going on in Texas since Thursday.

Some areas northwest of Houston have gotten up to 17 inches of rain and it was still pouring in many areas around there late Friday afternoon.

As you can imagine they're having an epic flood, one of a series of record and near record floods that have hit that part of the country over the past year or two.

I'm totally willing to bet that the effects and destruction from the Texas storms are turning out to be much worse than what will happen with wannabe Bonnie.

Oh sure, there's media attention on the unfolding disaster in Texas, but tropical storms and hurricanes get the bulk of news coverage, because, well, they're tropical storms and hurricanes.

Texas, quite frankly, as bad, though. The Weather Channel reports two people dead and three missing fron the flooding.

They had to rescue people from roofs of homes near Austin, and many roads were closed by the flahs flooding. In Bryan, Texas, a tornado added to the chaos. The twister damaged about 150 homes.

This is yet another in a series of weather disasters for Texas.

And it ain't over. More flooding and bouts of severe weather are due in the Lone Star State occasionally over the next week.

Texas is in for a lot more weather trouble than anything a little tropical depression could do.

Late Kate: Tropical Storm Forms In the Bahamas

Tropical storm Kate now gaining some steam
in the Bahamas. Expected to miss the United States. 

Tropical Storm Kate has formed in the Bahamas, but it looks like it will miss the United States.

The National Hurricane Center says Kate is in the Bahamas, with sustained winds of 40 mph, and it's moving to the west-northwest.

At first glance, that would put its path toward the southeastern United States, but rellaaaxxxx! Don't worry! 

All indications are a separate trough of low pressure along the East Coast, plus maybe that big storm I told you about earlier today that's expected to produce a severe storm outbreak in the Midwest will help push Kate north, then northeast, then east, pretty sharply, away from the United States.

So, basically, a severe thunderstorm and potential tornado outbreak might help save us from experiencing a tropical storm. Hurray, I guess.

The National Hurricane Center says Kate is never going to be a powerhouse like Joaquin in the Bahamas earlier this year. Joaquin blasted parts of the Bahamas with sustained winds of up to 150 mph or so.

Current forecasts have Kate getting up to 50 mph or so, maybe a little stronger.

Hurricanes and tropical storms do occasionally form in the Atlantic basin during November, though we are well past the peak of hurricane season. We've had a November tropical storm in the Atlantic once every two years since 2009.

Unlike Kate, sometimes November tropical storms or hurricanes do make landfall in the United States, too. Just not this time.

Phew!

Will Erika Threaten Florida? Everybodys Asking, But Nobody Knows For Sure

Satellite photo of Tropical Storm Erika over the
Lesser Antilles Thursday morning.  

Tropical Storm Erika was struggling westward through the northern Lesser Antilles in the central Atlantic Ocean early this morning, and has a lot of people asking what she's up to.

Like her smaller predecessor, Hurricane Danny, Erika is struggling with dry air and strong upper level winds that are preventing Erika from strengthening much.

Unlike Danny, Erika's larger size gives this tropical storm a shot a surviving the hostile weather conditions around it.

Erika is also a little south of where forecasters thought it might be today. If that's the case, the slightly more southward position might take the storm over the land masses of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, instead of the current forecasts that take it just north of those islands.

If Erika goes over those land areas, it could weaken or even fall apart. Tropical systems feed off warm ocean water, but weaken and die over land.

If Erika manages to survive, it could pose a threat to Florida. If Erika gets to the Bahamas relatively intact this weekend, the tropical storm will encounter weaker upper level winds and very warm ocean waters.

Those are two ingredients that really help tropical storms grow into hurricanes. A lot of computer models do strengthen Erika into a hurricane by the time it gets to its expected position in the Bahamas this weekend.

Then what? A worst case scenario is Erika would indeed strengthen to a hurricane and hit the Florida east coast Monday or Tuesday.

Lately, a lot of models predict Erika will curve northward, just off the Florida east coast.

There's still LOTS of questions on where Erika will end up, and now strong it will be once it gets where it is going.

I'm sure officials in Florida are dusting off and booting up their emergency plans, just in case.

I also bet Lowe's and Home Depot will be SLAMMED with people the next couple of days with people buying hurricane supplies and plywood to board up windows, just in case.

Incredibly, Florida has not had a landfalling hurricane since Wilma in October, 2005, so that's a way, way unusually long time for Florida to go without a hurricane.

I'm sure there will be more surprises with Erika down the line, so don't hang your hat yet on any one forecast for the storm. If you're in Florida or the southeastern United States or planning on going there the next few days, keep yourself updated on what Erika is up to.

Social Media Hyping NYC Tropical Storm; Don't Buy It

One forecasting model has a tropical
storm near NYC around Aug 2
but is likely an inaccurate prediction.  

If you hear that a nasty tropical storm is going to strike somewhere near New York City or Long Island on or around August 2, take it with an ENORMOUS grain of salt.

Some computer models come up with some sort of system like that about that time, but a lot of them do not.

Computer forecasting models are pretty good, but are notoriously unreliable when trying to determine  the strength and location or even existence of a tropical storm or hurricane nine days ahead of time.

One recent run of the European model has a tropical storm or hurricane hitting the North Carolina coast, the heading north toward Long Island.

Most of the other forecasting models are not showing this. Something very different, and very likely much more benign, might be along the East Coast then. Maybe there will be a cold front and a few thunderstorms, maybe not. It's way too soon to tell.

I suppose some sort of tropical system could form then near or off the U.S. coastline, but if it does, nobody REALLY has an idea where yet.

Every time a model does predict something like this a week and a half out, some of the more hyper weather geeks on social media go into alarm mode. I guess it's good for Web hits.

To be fair, most of the responsible weather geeks I've seen on social media are giving this tropical storm idea the same kind of skepticism I'm giving here, so that's a good thing.

I suppose for the next week, it will be fun to see if computer forecasting models come around to this idea of a tropical storm, but right now, I'm totally doubting it.

The time to pay attention is just a few days before the supposed storm. If, three days before it hits, the forecasts continue to predict it, then perk up. But for now, go back to your summer doldrums.

More Big Flooding, And Will Tropical Storm Make It Worse?

What might become Tropical Storm Bill
forming over the Gulf of Mexico Sunday. 

Flood and flash flood warnings and watches were scattered across different parts of the nation this morning as a wet early summer continues in many areas.

It's about to get worse, and some place - like Texas and Oklahoma - that suffered enormous floods last month are going to get slammed again.

There's two main ingredients to this latest bout of flooding. One is a strong ridge of high pressure causing a torrid heat wave in the southeastern United States.

That high pressure is steering lots of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas and Louisiana coast,  up into the southern Plains, then into the Ohio Valley.

Worse, a tropical storm is trying to form in the western Gulf of Mexico. If it forms, they'll name it Bill. 

Hi, Bill.

Bill will never be a powerhouse in terms of wind, but boy will it bring a lot of rain! That's true even if it doesn't get strong enough to get the name Bill.

A great huge arc from eastern Texas, on up into Missouri, the Ohio Valley then east to maybe the New York City area, New Jersey and southern New England could get at least four to eight inches of rain in the next week. Locally more, even, especially the more south you go.

Since most of these areas are already quite wet, the flooding over the next several days could get quite intense. People in this great huge arc of predicted wetness might want to build an ark.

Here's a geeky, interesting thing about would-be Tropical Storm Bill.  Tropical systems and hurricanes rely upon warm ocean water to maintain their strength. Virtually always, tropical storms and hurricanes weaken quickly once they get on to land, largely because the friction of the land slows the winds, and the ready supply of moisture from the ocean isn't there anymore.

(However, tropical storms remnants can cause heavy rain and flooding far inland, well after the winds have died down.)

In would-be Tropical Storm Bill's case, there's a chance it could maintain its strength well inland into Texas and Oklahoma.

This has happened at least once before. In 2007, Tropical Storm Erin moved ashore in the western Gulf of Mexico and quickly weakened once it got over land, as most tropical storms do.

Once it got into Oklahoma, though, favorable upper level conditions helped maintain it. Also, the flat ground of Oklahoma was very wet from previous rainfall. Erin pretty much redeveloped into a tropical storm, complete with winds of 60 mph, spiral rainbands and an eye characteristic of tropical storms and hurricanes.

The National Hurricane Center called it just a low pressure system at this point, but it had all the characteristics of a tropical storm.

Atmospheric scientists Theresa Anderson and Marshall Shepherd studied this, and said wet, flat earth can mimic the ocean's rich moisture source  in some cases to encourage inland tropical storms like Erin. They called this the "Brown Ocean Effect."

Since Texas and Oklahoma are so wet right now, maybe Bill will become or maintain itself as a tropical storm in the southern Plains like Erin did eight years ago?

Maybe.  If the "Brown Ocean Effect" helps Bill maintain its strength once it's well inland, that would likely worsen the flooding that's already almost a sure bet.