Tornado Outbreak Kills 3, Causes Huge Damage, And Alters Storm Forecast In Northeast.

A tornado destroyed this school Monday in Alexandria, Louisiana
Image from KALB

Monday's tornado outbreak in the South killed at least three people and caused millions of dollars in property damage.  But as they always say, it could have been worse.

Warnings were excellent as the powerful tornadoes moved through, and those warnings saved lives.

One such example was in Alexandria, Louisiana, which was in the path of a strong tornado with a long track of 63 miles.  In that path was the Hope Baptists School and Church, where 18 kids and their teachers were in classrooms as the storm approached.

According to television station KALB, teachers in the school received phone alerts of the approaching tornado.  The teachers hustled the children to a safer church sanctuary next door. Moments later, the school collapsed in the tornado. The sanctuary was also badly damaged, but everybody was by then hiding in protected corners of the building.

The complex was destroyed, but nobody was hurt. Just after the tornado, emergency responders  took the kids to a nearby, undamaged building where parents picked them up.

Not everyone was so lucky. A husband and wife in Town Creek, Alabama were killed by a tornado and several others hurt, according to the Weather Channel, citing an Associated Press report. 

So far, there are 37 reports of preliminary reports of tornadoes in the Deep South.

There is a history of terrible December tornadoes in the South.  A twister hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama on December 16, 2000, killing 16 people. Several rounds of southern tornadoes in December, 2015 killed 20 people.  The deadliest December tornado on record killed 38 people in Vicksburg, Missisippi on December 5, 1953.  (That was the end of a terrible tornado year in which powerful tornadoes killed hundreds of people in Texas, Michigan and Massachusetts.)

The large number of tornadoes and violent thunderstorms Monday pumped a lot of latent heat into the atmosphere, which has helped pump up a high pressure ridge off the East Coast. That is affecting the snow and ice storm hitting the Northeast today.

It doesn't change the forecast much for the northern two thirds of Vermont (One to three inches north, three to five inches of snow south).  But the extra heat and moisture in the atmosphere might boost snow totals in southern Vermont and New Hampshire up to or even beyond six inches.

And that extra heat floating around as a "gift" from yesterday's thunderstorms are creating   more favorable conditions for a lot of freezing rain in parts of southern New England, New York, New Jersey and Pensylvania. It was already a total mess in these areas early this morning.

Here's a video of a close miss tornado to the video maker's house. Her name is Heather Welch. Early on in the video you can see large debris falling and trees toppling as the twister made its closest approach to the camera person.

I probably would not have been standing under those trees. When a tornado just passes, you get something called a rear flank downdraft, which can contain powerful winds that would easily topple trees and cause additonal damage, even away from the tornado's direct path:



Another large tornado near Bogue Chitto, Mississippi:



This aftermath video of the Hope Baptist School in ??? is scary because of what could have happened to all the kids inside. Video shows the destruction and children being evacuated:

Long, Hellish Weekend in Louisiana, Mississippi Due To Barry

Tropical Storm Barry was looking somewhat more organized
early this morning on satellite imagtes. 

UPDATE 11 a.m.

Tropical storm Barry briefly achieved hurricane status this morning as it moved into Louisiana, as it had top sustained winds of 75 mph.

These strong winds were only in a small area east of the center, and of course probably have already started weakening.

Plus, Barry certainly does not look like a hurricane on satellite photos. At least not a traditional one.

This brief hurricane status basically means nothing in real terms. The expected outcome is the same: Strong, gusty winds in southern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi, with the biggest impacts being flooding from the expected rainfall of up to two feet

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Tropical Storm Barry, that lopsided mess of a storm, was slowly inching toward the coast of Louisiana this morning, still destined to bring horrible flooding to Louisiana, Mississippi and perhaps beyond for the next few days.

Barry really is one of those storms that on paper, shouldn't be that big a deal. But, as we've pointed out for days, it's very slow and very wet, even by tropical storm standards, so the flooding still looks to be tremendous.

That flooding will begin today, if it hasn't already. Heavy rain was moving onshore early Saturday. Forecasters still expect an incredible ten to 20 inches of rain in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi.

Storm surges have been causing some coastal inundations at least since Friday morning at the times of high tide. Power is already out in many neighborhoods as winds pick up. Some exposed areas along the shore and up high, like in upper floor condos, have had wind gusts to hurricane force already.

Honestly, there's not much new to report on Tropical Storm Barry this morning. Everybody down in the storm zone is just bracing themselves, hoping for the best, and expecting the worst. Baton Rouge is expecting flooding that could easily rival the epic disaster of 2016.

That was just three years ago, and people haven't really recovered from that yet, and here they are getting hit again

For weather geeks, Tropical Storm Barry looks very weird especially for a tropical storm packing top winds of 70 mph and one that could still become a category 1 hurricane.

The northern part of the storm was still blown apart all day Friday by dry air and strong winds aloft, while the southern half of the storm looked intense to say the least. Tropical storms and hurricanes usually have a roughly circular shape. Barry looks more like a ragged half moon.

The storm on satellite looked a bit more like a traditional tropical system this morning, which tells me there's still some opportunity for strengthening as it nears the coast.

Still, because of the more disorganized northern part of the storm, the worst of Tropical Storm Barry will probably come a few hours after landfall. Heavy rain will come out ahead of it, of course, but it'll get really nasty once Barry is inland later today.

Flooding is obviously the big risk, but storms like Barry often spin off a lot of tornadoes, so that's a risk, too. Early this morning, tornado warnings went up in New Orleans, just a few days after another tornado destroyed a house near the city.

Anyway, Saturday morning is a time to watch and wait and see what Barry has in store this weekend. I'm sure there will be some bad news on this by Sunday.

Mississippi College Bar Tornado Panic Proves Need For People To Plan For Scary Weather

 The building housing Bin 612 in Starksville, Mississippi. The
bar came under controversy this month when it ordered
patrons out when a tornado warning was issued. 

If you're out and about and a tornado warning is issued, you should seek shelter in a sturdy building if at all possible.

One good idea if you have time is to run into a business in a substantial building.

People do that all the time during warnings. Business owners are pretty much always happy to rescue people caught out in their cars or on foot when a tornado is bearing down.

However, you can't always count on a business being accommodating, or even capable of helping people out in dangerous weather.  

This was the case earlier this month in Mississippi. It highlights how people should be prepared in advance for scary, dangerous weather. And how businesses and municipalities can develop or improve severe weather emergency plans.  

Controversy erupted in Starksville, Mississippi during a recent tornado outbreak in the South, when a pub called Bin 612 near Mississippi State University.

Bin 612, and other nearby restaurants, shut their doors when a tornado warning was issued.  Some people were outraged that the bar would kick people out in a tornado warning. Others wondered why people were out at bars in the first place when forecasts had called for severe weather all day.

According to Al.com:

"Bin 612 - and nearly half a dozen nearby restaurants in the area's Cotton District - shut their doors as soon as the tornado warning was issued. Those already inside were asked to leave. And it didn't go over well.

Video posted to social media Saturday night showed a cacophony of dumbstruck students as chaos ensued following the evacuation notice. 'Get the (expletive out!' a voice can be heard shouting - later revealed to be a third-party security guard."

In the jumpy video, you can also hear a young woman pleading, "Where do we go for shelter?"

Dire warnings probably unintentionally helped lead to the panic. Often, if a tornado is confirmed or if signs point to a particularly bad one, tornado warnings often have enhanced working. Shortly before 10 p.m. that Saturday, the National Weather Service in Jackson, Mississippi issued a tornado warnint for the Starksville area.

A few minutes later, that warning was upgraded to include the message that "a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located....nine miles southwest of Starksville" and moving right toward the town. People had less than 10 minutes to take cover.

This enhanced wording from the National Weather Service is meant to tell complacent people that this one is serious, take it seriously.

The dire warning panicked people in Bin 612 and surrounding bars. Bin 612 has a basement, but it can only hold about 50 people. Close to 300 people were in Bin 612 that night. Video of the moment is at the bottom of this post.

Staying in the bar would have been dangerous, Ty Thames, the owner of Bin 612 told Al.com

"'People were too intoxicated to understand they were in danger there,' explained Thames. 'It's basically wall to wall glass on the front and back of the building. The only non-glass walls we have are interior room-to-room walls. And those are lined with glass racks to hold glasses, over 300 liquor bottles and tons of serving glasses."

Thames said security guards tried to guide people to a nearby underground parking garage. But the crowd was panicked, the guards were frantic and yelling expletives. So any sense of a reasonable process to take cover was lost

Thankfully, the tornado lifted before it reached town.  So, death and disaster averted.

That's not always the case. There have been deaths over the years at outdoor concert venues and other events when severe weather rolled in and organizers didn't have a good enough plan to get people to shelter in time.

All this points to lessons that should have been learned. Bin 612 and other businesses should think through a plan to evacuate people in an orderly fashion during an emergency. No ad hoc security guards shoving people out through doors, please. To his credit, Thames said he would review and upgrade his severe weather plan

And people out for an evening when severe weather is forecast should have looked at their surroundings and figured out where they would go if a tornado warning was issued, or another emergency cropped up. Better yet, since they'd been forecasting rough weather all day, people maybe should have stayed home, and go out another night when the weather was calmer.

I know this is paranoid, but when I go to a crowded public venue, I always take note of where the exit  signs are, and think for a moment how I would leave if I had to get out in a hurry.

Here's the video of security guards yelling, scared, drunk patrons and people not knowing what to do. Not the best moment in severe weather prep:

Turns Out Dangerous High Winds Will Be Worst Part Of Vermont Wintry Storm

Midwinter conditions: I took this photo of my St. Albans, Vermont
yard today, April 15. I swear I did not take this image on
January 15, but it sure looks like it. 

Well, this sucks.

On this Sunday morning, we're still stuck here in frigid temperatures - in the 20s. Most of us are getting light snow, sleet and freezing rain, and that state of affairs should continue all day.

Temperatures which should be in the 50s by afternoon will stay stuck remarkably below freezing all day.

Some parts of far northern Vermont will have close to 48 hours of continuously below freezing temperatures before this is over -- in April!  

I guess I try to console myself by saying it's worse elsewhere and it is (I've got news and video at the bottom of this post to prove it. You'll want to take a look.. However, it's not much worse elsewhere than it is here in Vermont, I'm afraid.

Still, we don't have all that much ice on the trees. At least not yet. And snowfall has been relatively light. Most areas in the north received 2.5 inches of snow and sleet or less. Here in St. Albans, I was at an even two inches as of 7:30 this morning

Today, precipitation won't come down particularly hard, and might stop altogether for some brief periods. But it'll all be snow, sleet and freezing rain, with less snow and more freezing rain by afternoon.

More occasional freezing rain, possibly turning into a cold rain later on, should continue tonight.

However the worst is not here yet. It turns out the worst isn't going to be ice or snow or flooding. It looks like high winds will be the most dangerous and destructive aspect of this storm. 

DANGEROUS WINDS MONDAY

Things are coming together to produce a destructive high wind event, mostly along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. This one could turn out to be as dangerous and damaging as the epic wind storm last October, and the extreme nor'easter winds that trashed Rutland and surrounding areas in April, 2007.

The wind direction, the pressure gradient between the storm approaching from the Ohio Valley and that frigid high pressure system in Canada that has been torturing us this weekend looks like they might come together perfectly to create very strong downslope winds Monday along the western slopes of the Greens.

There's danger anywhere in that range Monday from east of Bennington to northeast of St. Albans. At this point, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is saying the worst of the wind might end up in eastern Rutland and Addison counties, where winds in some spots could gust to 75 mph. 

Elsewhere along the western slopes in Vermont, winds could gust to 60 mph or higher. There are also signs that some gusts could "bounce" further west into western Vermont. That's what happened in 2007 in Rutland, when those downslope winds extended westward into the city's downtown, which caused a LOT of damage.

This also happened last October, when those winds extended westward, especially into places like Colchester, Milton and Georgia, where there was a lot of tree and structural damage.

There's no guarantee these winds will extend into more populated areas, but it's something to watch.

A couple of other things that are expected to make this wind storm even more dangerous than it otherwise would be: The soil is saturated, and thus softer, making it easier for winds to push over trees. (The soil didn't freeze in this snow and cold snap, or if it did, only the top inch or so is frozen, so that doesn't make much of a difference.)

Also, there might also still be ice clinging to the trees in some areas when the wind gets cranking, making it all the more likely they'll topple in gusts.

If you live along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, definitely get your flashlights and your LED candles ready. And charge up your devices. I guarantee power failures on Monday.

I would also repeat that the wind could get strong enough to cause scattered power failures and tree damage away from the western slopes of the Green Mountains, too.

If there's any good news in this awful weather and awful forecast, it's that it looks like the flood threat on Monday is definitely diminished. So much so that the National Weather Service has dropped the flood watch.

It won't rain as hard as originally anticipated on Monday and Monday night. Plus, it won't get as warm as originally forecast. And what warming we do get was originally scheduled to start coming in today, but has now been postponed until Monday.

That means less runoff from melting snow and ice, so rivers won't rise so much. There might be localized minor flooding, but it won't be that huge a deal.

LOOKING AHEAD

If you want full-blown spring here in Vermont, keep waiting. It's going to be awhile. That said, things will get better than they have been this weekend. Temperatures will still stay a little colder than normal all of this upcoming week, but it won't feel like mid-winter. Maybe like March, with highs mostly in the 40s most days.

It'll stay unsettled with scattered rain and mostly mountain snow showers Tuesday and to a somewhat lesser extent Wednesday. It looks like another storm is coming in Thursday or Friday, but it's unclear at this point if we'll get a lot or a little precipitation out of that one.

The good news is it looks like whatever comes Thursday and Friday will be mostly or exclusively in the form of rain and not ice and snow.

Unfortunately, at the moment I'm not finding many hints of any springtime warmth of note in any of the long range forecasts

MISERY ELSEWHERE IN U.S., CANADA

The blizzard in the northern Plains and into the western Great Lakes area is finally beginning to diminish today.

Tornado damage in Meridian, Mississippi on Saturday.
Photo by Paula Merrit/Meridian Star

There have been some incredible snow totals out there, especially for mid-April, and in some areas it's still snowing.

Some examples so far: Tiverton, Wisconsin got 24.` inches of snow. An even 20 inches came down in Okreek and Winner, South Dakota. Canby, Minnesota got 19 inches.

Sioux Falls, South Dakota got 13.7 inches of snow Saturday, it's snowiest April day on record. So far this month in Sioux Falls, they've had 24.9 inches of snow, making this by far the snowiest April on record there.

Minneapolis got 11 inches of snow through midnight Saturday, bringing this month's total to 22.5 inches, to create that city's snowiest April, breaking the old record set in 1983. It was still snowing in Minneapolis this morning.

Between the heavy snow and winds gusting past 50 mph, many Interstate and other highways were shut down in the region Saturday.

Meanwhile, freezing rain was causing car crashes and power outages around Toronto, Ontario, Canada and in western New York.

In Oklahoma, wildfires have killed two people and burned over 366,000 acres. Wildfires there spread as fast as a mile every ten minutes. Several homes were destroyed by wildfires in Oklahoma, Texas and New Mexico.

Winds have calmed down out there temporarily, but very high fire danger is expected to resume Monday and Tuesday.

Severe storms and tornadoes continued in the South Saturday, with one tornado in particular causing a lot of damage around Meridian, Mississippi. (one of the videos below shows it.) Today, severe weather and possible tornadoes could develop in the Southeast, especially in the Carolinas.

Some videos now.

We'll start with a couple of moments of tornado drama. The first was a giddy guy being way too close to an Arkansas tornado on Friday.




Next, we have some people in a house in Meridian, Mississippi as things get bad in a hurry as a tornado comes over. Pretty terrifying!



Here's a news clip of lovely blizzard weather in Nebraska:

Nate Thrashes Gulf Coast; To Become Welcome Vermont Soaker

Storm surge flooding from Hurricane Nate in Biloxi,
Mississppi last night. Photo by Mark Wallheiser/Getty Images

As expected, Hurricane Nate smashed ashore first near the mouth of the Mississippi river and then near Biloxi, Mississippi last night packing 85 mph winds.

As of early this morning, Nate was rapidly weakening, again, as expected, as it races northeastward up the spine of the southern Appalachians.

The worse effects of Nate were the storm surge, which caused flooding along the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and Louisiana.

Media images showed something like four feet of water inside the Golden Nugget casino in Biloxi, and waves surging inland from the beaches.

Perhaps 300,000 or more people lost electricity in the storm zone - not as bad as strong hurricanes Irma and Harvey, but still a mess. Flash flooding is possible as the heavy rains associated with Nate pour down on the hilly terrain of northern Alabama and Georgia and on up into Tennessee and Georgia.

Nate moved far enough east of New Orleans to spare that city any severe flooding.

The worst effects of Nate occurred in Central America when the storm was still just a tropical depression. There, the storm unleashed flash floods which killed 28 people.

Overall in the United States, Nate was bad, but certainly not as terrible as Irma and Harvey.

The remnants of Nate will continue to move north and northeast, and go right across New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine tomorrow. That's nothing to worry about, since winds will not be a factor by the time it reaches here.

True, the rather heavy rain with Nate's remnants will interfere with Columbus Day leaf peepers, but we do need the precipitation. Most of Vermont and surrounding regions can expect an inch or two of rain out of this. I don't anticipate any flooding problems.

Best TV Weather Segment Ever Includes Forecasts Of Farts And Toots

A little kid named Houston crashed a Mississippi television
meteorologist''s segment to forecast "farts and toots."

Residents in and near Jackson, Mississippi were probably startled, and maybe delighted, that their televisied weather forecast included the chance of farts.

Probably delighted because the scary news was delivered by a little boy who crashed an adult meteorologist's on-air weather forecast.

The WBLT-TV forecast presented by meteorologist Patrick Ellis on a recent Saturday began benignly enough.

Ellis said the area was under a threat of light showers, but that dry air over Mississippi would squelch most of the showers.

So, nothing extreme to worry about among Mississippi weather watchers.

That's when a young kid named Houston decided to spice up the ho-hum weather forecast a little bit, says Adweek's TVSpy website. 

Houston burst onto the set during Ellis' segment to warn viewers that "farts and toots" were also in the forecast. It looks like Houston demonstrated the threat of this "dangerous" weather by letting one loose himself.

You can see the delightful video at the bottom of this post.

It turns out that WLBT that local lawyers are sometimes invited onto the news set during the station's 6 p.m. Saturday broadcast. Often, these lawyers bring their kids to see how a local television news cast is run.

Usually, this doesn't cause much excitement. This time it did. "This Saturday was a little different....This Saturday our friend Houston decided he wanted to be on television."

When you watch the clip, it's great to see that Ellis just rolls with the situation until Houston's father abruptly pulls Houston off the air, pre-empting what could have been a really glorious weather forecast.

Here's the clip:

Little Publicized Intense Summer Heat Melting The Southern United States

Nightime view of Jackson, Mississippi. But
even nights have been sweltering in the Deep South
during this persistently hot summer.  

There hasn't been too much publicity about the unrelenting heat in the Deep South, mostly because it hasn't been spectacularly breaking all time record highs on any given day.

But it's been a long slog of horrible heat and humidity in places like Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama for more than a month now.

Today will likely be the 30th day in a row that Jackson, Mississippi has reached at least 95 degrees. Such a long streak is a new record for them.

It's been 90 degrees or better in Jackson every afternoon since July 6. It's been 95 or more every day since July. Only one night has gotten any cooler than 70 degreds since July 7. Since July 25, nine days have reached 100 degrees or more.

Of course, Jackson, Mississippi isn't the place to go if you like refreshingly cool summer breezes. It's usually humid there, and normal daytime highs there are in the low 90s.

But this summer has been horrible. I bet they're sick of it.

If you go to Shreveport, Louisiana, it's not any better. Yesterday was the 8th consecutive day in Shreveport that made it to 100 degrees or more

Relief, such as it is, looks destined to finally reach these areas later this week. Relief is way too strong a word, though. Daytime highs later in the week across the Deep South will "only" reach the low 90s.