Fast Start To Tropical Storm Season, But No Biggies - Yet

Hurricane Katrina in the devastating tropical storm season of 2005.
So far in 2020, there have been more storms than normal, but all
weak. That will change as we head further into hurricane season

If you blinked, you missed it.

But Tropical Storm Edouard formed in the Atlantic Ocean well off the United States East Coast Sunday and dissipated in less than 24 hours. Top winds were a paltry 40 mph.

The only impressive thing about Edouard was it's the earliest we've gotten to the letter "E" for an Atlantic tropical storm on record. (Tropical storms come in alphabetical order, so Edouard was the fifth tropical storm of the season).

The last time we'e seen anything like this was the previous record breaking early season in 2005, when Emily formed on July 12, 2005.

That year was when the infamous Hurricane Katrina hit.  We also had destructive hurricanes Rita and Wilma, among others.

Like most years, the early storms so far this summer have been relatively weak, with none of them becoming full-blown hurricanes. The early season of 2005 was remarkable because storms like Dennis became a Category 4 monster near Cuba and Emily in the Atlantic turned into the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record. Both storms formed in July that year.

Category 5 storms are the strongest and worst of the bunch.  

In an average year, the first full hurricane of the season gets going around August 10. The season peaks in September.

According to Dr. Jeff Masters, writing in the Yale Climate Connection, noted the early 2005 storms formed deep in the tropics. That pattern is usually a harbinger of a severe hurricane season and 2005 was certainly that.

So far, all but one of this year's tropical storms have formed further north, which is less of a sign that this year will be tough.  There might actually be another northern, weak tropical storm in our future. There's a weather disturbance over Georgia this morning.  If it emerges out into the werm waters off the coast of the Carolinas, it could turn into Tropical Storm Fay in a few days.

But don't relax.  There are plenty of other signs we could be in trouble with hurricanes later this summer and fall.

The tropical Atlanttic waters are mostly much warmer than average.  Hot water is fuel for hurricanes, as long as there's not a lot of strong upper level winds to tear thunderstorms apart. Overall water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are actually a little warmer than the toasty levels see in 2005.

The overall weather pattern, and relatively warm water tempertatures in the eastern Pacific, influence the air over the Atlantic tropical region.  Upper level winds are forecast to be relatively light in the Atlantic, which would encourage hurricanes to form.

Additionally, a region in Africa south of the Sahara Desert has been wet and stormy in the late spring and early summer.

If this pattern continues. some of that storminess would move westward off the coast of Africa into the Atlantic Ocean and spawn hurricanes.

Hurricanes forming from these disturbances coming from Africa are often the most dangerous. They have time to get strong as they move westward toward the Caribbean, and ultimately, sometimes the United States.

Even if this year turns out to be a busy one with hurricanes, everything depends on their paths.  If all of them manage to stay well out to sea, well, then who cares? It's all good.

But chances are, at least one biggie, if not more will threaten Caribbean islands and the United States. Basically, everyone even remotely near the coast from Brownsville, Texas to Eastport, Maine should keep an eye on the tropics through the autumn, just in case.

Why It's Hard To Predict Whether Vermont Will Have Spring Flooding This Year

Motorists slog through spring floodwaters near Enosburg, Vermont
in April, 2011. 

We here in Vermont are getting toward the start of the spring flood season, so it's only natural to start wondering if this year will be bad for that kind of nastiness.

At the moment, there are plenty of mixed signals on what kind of spring flooding, if any, the Green Mountain State sees this year.

First, some background. Flooding can and does occur at any time of year in Vermont. Ice jams during rainy, very warm January thaws can trigger floods, as they did in 2018.

Late spring and summer torrential thunderstorms can set off big local flash floods, as they have in many years, like in 2013.  Tropical storms heading north into New England we know can cause serious floods, as we remember from Irene in 2011.

Large autumn storms can sweep through and cause floods, as we saw big time last Halloween.  And of course, rain and melting snow can cause spring flooding in March and April.

Quite frankly, Vermont doesn't need any more flooding.  Last April, the kind of spring flood I'm talking about hit parts of central, southern and eastern Vermont, prompting a federal disaster declaration.

Then that even worse Halloween storm a few months back triggered serious flooding across the northern half of Vermont, prompting another federal disaster declaration. Yep, two such declarations within about seven months.

So, on to this spring. We might as well talk about it today, Sunday, since the outdoors does have a mild, spring-like feel.

Today's weather signals that we are now entering our first good thaw of late winter and early spring.  The first chance of any late winter or spring flooding comes late this week, but that is decidedly iffy. The chances that an expected pretty big storm late this week are pretty low.

That's because at this point, the storm looks like it will bring us a mix of stuff. It will probably include rain, but that rain will likely mostly just soak into the existing snowpack. Plus the storm will probably bring other types of precipitation, like wet snow, sleet and/or freezing rain.  If the storm ends up being mostly snow or mixed precipitation, that would actually add slightly to the risk of flooding later.

That's because there will be even more snow and ice locked up on the ground, waiting to melt.

Even if that happens, the amount of snow on the ground, and the amount of water locked up in that snow, is roughly normal for this time of year, says the National Weather Service South Burlington.

That NWS office issues a winter/spring flood outlook every other week this time of year, so that's where I'm getting this information.  A normal late winter snowpack implies a normal spring flooding season, if you ignore all other possible factors, which of course you can't do.

Moisture in the soil is near to just a little above normal, which is largely a legacy of last year's very wet autumn. River flows currently are also near or a little above normal.  There's ice in the rivers which could cause ice jams, but it's not a huge amount of ice. We've had a warm winter.

Lake Champlain also has a near normal level heading into the spring flood season.

All this means is it's a tossup as to whether you should think about any spring flooding in Vermont this year.

Spring flooding is a major concern for much of the nation this year.  

Last spring brought widespread, disastrous and in some places unprecedented flooding to much of the central United States, especially in places like South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Missouri.

The outlook for this year is pretty grim, especially in the eastern Dakotas, the upper half of the Mississippi Valley, around the Great Lakes and other parts of the Midwest, as The Weather Channel reports.   Of course, we've already had super serious flooding in the South this month.

In the bigger river systems like the Missouri, Mississippi, Ohio and other large rivers, you can make an educated guess ahead of time as to how serious flooding might be a month or two down the road,

Vermont lacks those big rivers.  In the large river systems further west, floods are slow rolling disasters.  Vermont floods are like a mugging.  They hit you in an instant, and just as quickly, they're gone.  It's hard to predict a mugger, and it's hard to predict a Vermont flood well in advance.

In some years, when the snowpack and the soil moisture and the rivers are high in late February, you can safely anticipate at least some flooding later in the spring. In normal-ish years like this, it all depends on what March and early April does.

If we have a lot of very wet storms over the next two months - either rain or snow - that can make the flooding risk skyrocket.  If we have a March and early April full of perfect sugaring weather - mild thawing afternoons and freezing nights - the snow melt is slow and we have a low flood risk.  A big bout of super warm, record temperatures, especially if accompanied by heavy rain, you get floods.

Long range forecasts are tricky, but some of those forecasts do predict a relatively stormy first half of March. Beyond that, you might as well flip a coin.

Climate change adds an additional twist.  The risk of heavier individual rain storms is getting higher.  However, that overall risk is a big picture thing.  You really can't tell when those bigger, heavier storms might hit.  The next monster storm could be next week, or it could wait five years or more. Who knows?

The only thing I can say is have your sump pumps ready, just in case. This year truly is a tossup.

Semi-Tropical Storm Nestor: Weak On Paper, Nasty In Reality

Tropical Storm Nestor about to make landfall in northwestern Florida
this morning.

Tropical Storm Nestor, if you can call it that, is expected to make landfall in northwestern Florida today..

It doesn't at all look like a classic tropical storm. It looks more like just a regular old nasty batch of thunderstorms arranged in a comma shape. 

Top sustained winds  this morning were  a ho-hum 50 mph. It was even kind of hard to pick out its center of circulation, as it mostly consisted of rough weather to the north and east of the center. 

So on paper, Nestor is not much to worry about. In reality, though it's a pretty rough one.

It's coming ashore, as I said in northwestern Florida. The topography of the region is helping make the storm surge from Nestor worse than it otherwise would be, so flooding is a problem.

As you can see on a map, the coastline of western Florida makes an arc like a tilted, backwards "C" between Pananma City in the panhandle, and Tampa, halfway down the west coast.

Water is being driven from the southwest toward the northeast into this backwards "C".  That tends to shove and converge water into the middle of this curving coastline.  Which means Nestor is capable o storm surges of three to five feet above normal water levels.

Since much of this coastline is low and flat, water can definitely push inland past the beaches into homes and businesses. There was already a round of storm surge flooding last night, and there will be another one today.

Friction with land can also help make the disorganized storms with Nestor, creating tornadoes. There were already a couple last night, including one that sent debris flying across busy Interstate 4 near Lakeland Florida.

More tornadoes will probably touch down in Florida and Georgia today.

What's left of Nestor will move up over the eastern Carolinas today and tomorrow, then out ot sea.  It won't really affect Vermont much, except perhaps add a little moisture to a cold front coming in Tuesday night.

That cold front, and not Nestor, will be the main player for us here in Vermont. We'll get a decent slug of rain out of it but not nearly as much as we got from that nor'easter on Thursday. So the flood threat looks pretty low at this point

September Weather: Vermont A Normal Island In A Really Abnormal U.S. Month

Still no frost at my St. Albans, Vermont house yet.
so I've still got some flowers as October begins
even though the leaves are changing and falling. 

September was a month of extremes across the United States, with winter weather in the northern Rockies, massive flooding in the middle of the nation and unprecedented late summer and early autumn heat in the South and Southeast.

Meanwhile, here in Vermont, we enjoyed a most pleasant weather for the most part, weather that was pretty much spot on normal for September.

The Green Mountain State spent September in the sweet spot.  Close enough to the heat dome in the South to keep the heaviest rain storms at bay, but far enough away to get some coolish, dry air from southern Canada.

We were too far east to get caught up in those midwestern storms, and way too far away for us to get any kind of weather that would remind you of winter.

Subjectively, this was easily one of my favorite Septembers in my 57 years living in Vermont. Rainfall was certainly adequate, but between those showers, we had a large number of days with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures. It ws just pleasant.

For stats, Burlington came in with a mean September temperature of 62.0, which was 1.5 degrees above normal. Rainfall was nearly spot on perfect, with 3.71 inches for the month, just 0.07 inches wetter than normal. A rounding error, basically.

There wasn't even that big a range in temperature during Burlington's September. The hottest day reached 83 degrees, the coolest morning was just 40 degrees.

Elsewhere in Vermont, September temperatures were at or just a smidge below normal. The Northeast Kingdom was a bit on the cool side. Like in Burlington,  precipitation was close to normal.

Temperatures in southern Vermont were also quite close to normal, but it was on the dry side down there. For instance, Springfield had only 1.27 inches of rain during the month, which was about 2.5 inches below normal.

As mentioned, other parts of the nation were wild. I'll cherry pick some spots as examples.

Dallas, Texas endured a September that averaged out at 85.5 degrees, or 7.5 degrees hotter than normal. Only one day in September there failed to reach 90 degrees.

Memphis, Tennessee had its hottest September on record, as did Evansville, Indiana, where temperatures reached 80 degrees each day of the month for the first time records started being kept there in 1897.

Atlanta, Georgia was just about nine degrees hotter than normal. The average high temperature in Macon, Georgia in September was 96.4 degrees. During the final week of the month, each day in Macon reached at least 97 degrees, with three of those breaking 100 degrees. Only 0.03 inches of rain fell there. They should have had more than 3.5 inches.

All the rain was instead in the middle of the nation. Peoria, Illinois, for instance had more than 7.5 inches of rain last month.

Actually, places like Montana didn't have all that cold a September until the final days of the month, with that record snowfall of up to four feet. This morning, the temperature was a wintry 5 degrees in Cut Bank, Montana.

The opening few days of October will bring more of the same. Record heat will continue in the South and East for the first few days of the month. All-time record October highs are expected today and tomorrow in some places.

Flood watches are up once again in a band stretching from New Mexico to Michigan.

And here in Vermont, there will be some weather action, but nothing too extreme. The oddest thing would be the chance of a few late season thunderstorms today. A few might even bring gusty winds and heavy downpours.

It'll be a little on the warm side today, and a little on the cool side tomorrow and on through the weekend. There will definitely be showers around on several of these days, but again, nothing scary.

Once we get into the cool season, weather tends to get more variable, so anytbing could happen durin the rest of October. But will Vermont remain in the relatively calm weather sweet spot? Only time will tell.

Vermont Gets One-Day Reprieve From Heat, Humidity, Storms

High humidity helped lead to this brief but very torrential
downpour in St. Albans on Wednesday. 

It was actually nice out when I wrote this blog post thingy at 7:30 this Thursday morning.

The sun was out, the temperature was reasonable and so was the humidity. The dewpoint, the best measure of how humid it is, was under 60 degrees in northern Vermont, which is terrific for July.

Temperatures will get into the low to mid 80s this afternoon, and the humidity might creep up a bit, but it'll be a nice day.

It's a nice break from the downpours and the oppressive, soupy air of yesterday, and the brief but intense bout of potentially stormy heat and humidity we're about to get.

Dewpoints were over 70 degrees yesterday and any little shower cloud that formed took advantage of the wet air and dumped lots of rain in short periods of time. I've heard Westford, Vermont got an inch of rain in 30 minutes.

Luckily, the storms were small in size and moved right along, so we didn't get any real flash flooding, like the spot flash floods that occured in southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic states.

Overnight and especially Friday, the heat and humidity is still expected to blast in. I'm betting the National Weather Service in South Burlington will issue some sort of heat advisory for Friday and Saturday as heat indexes go into the upper 90s.

Actual temperatures during the day Friday and Saturday will probably top 90 degrees, with lows in many areas of Vermont not getting below 70 degrees at night. Yuck.

The thunderstorm outlook for this hot spell that we've been talking about is more uncertain. I suppose as the hot, humid air comes in early Friday, there might be some pre-dawn storms, especially near the Canadian border.

The heat and humidity will provide the ingredients for some strong storms Friday afternoon and evening, but the triggers to set them off are lacking. So there might not be much in the way of fireworks.

You want temperatures to cool with elevation as another ingredient for storms. But there is likely to be a warmer layer of the atmosphere above us on Friday. That's known as a cap, and these caps inhibit storms. Sometimes an updraft can break through the cap, leading to an isolated strong storm or two.

That'll probably happen Friday afternoon and evening, but it will be hit and miss, mostly a miss. The majority of us won't get a storm.

Saturday is iffy when it comes to storms. It surely will be hot and humid, with highs getting past 90 again and heat indexes approaching 100.

Again, the ingredients are there for strong storms. But will they materialize?  It's tricky.  It all depends on the position of a cold front to our north in Canada. If it gets close to the International Border, that would cool off the air aloft and help trigger strong updrafts with potentially severe storms.

If, as other computer models suggest, the front stays way north - north of Montreal - that cap I talked about would stay intact and we won't get much in the way of storms.

Finally, that cold front will come through Sunday. As it stands now, central and southern Vermont would get the most storms on Sunday.  Current forecasts have the front coming through in the late morning across northern Vermont, which would be too early in the day to take advantage of heat and humidity to trigger big storms

The front would hit southern Vermont later, leading to a chance of strong storms. This forecast is very much subject to change.

The good news is this cold front still looks like it will represent a weather pattern change. It looks like temperatures next week in Vermont will be near to a bit below normal. Humidity levels will crash downward, too.

Long-range forecasts suggest this relatively cool pattern could last through the end of the month. So we just have three or so days of awfullness to get through. Not as bad as last summer, right?

For an idea how soupy the air was over the Northeast yesterday, watch this time lapse of a storm moving into New York City. The rain is so heavy eventually in the video that even nearby high rises seem to disappear:

Another Winter Throwback In Vermont; Much More Serious Threats Elsewhere in Nation

Sunshine tries to break through as snow falls in my St. Albans, Vermont
yard on Wednesday. It looks like a little more snow will fall tonight.

The never-ending winter of 2018-19 in Vermont marches on the best it can, despite the calendar saying we are well into spring and the strong sun trying with limited success to oust the cold.

Despite that bright sunshine, it was a cold Thursday. I cut short outdoor chores at my house in St. Albans, Vermont early last evening.

The sun felt nice enough when it was out, but the air was cold - only in the low to mid 30s. Winds gusting past 30 mph added a lot of chill to the air.

This morning, it's as cold as 8 degrees in Saranac Lake, New York, and Island Pond, Vermont. The "toasty" spots in the state were around 20 degrees. Not exactly spring-like, huh? 

And guess what? It's going to snow tonight!  Luckily, it won't be a big snowstorm at all by Vermont standards, or even April standards, but snow does frustrate this time of year. Ironically, the snow will be caused by a warm front.

Precipitation will break out as the warm front approaches late this afternoon and evening. Many of us will probably start off as rain. But the rain will initially be falling into dry air. That causes the air to cool, so the rain will change to snow.

Almost all of us, including the Champlain Valley banana belt, will get some snow out of this. The current thinking is we'll get an inch or so of slush in the valley, with one to three inches in north-central and northeastern Vermont tonight. A couple favored higher elevation places might clock in with four inches or so.

The good news is this is a warm front, after all, so we'll be left with a decent weekend. High temperatures will reach the 50s both Saturday and Sunday. That's not super warm for April, but it's OK, and we'll take it

The weather turns unsettled again next week. We're settling back into that pattern we had all winter, with storms crossing the country from the West Coast up to the Northeast, leaving trails of bad weather with them. 

Here in Vermont, that means rain, with some mountain snows each time a storm comes by. We'll have to watch this, as there's still a lot of snow in the mountains. If the rain is heavy, there could be some flood concerns. It's too early to tell on that one.

We know a slug of rain, with maybe a little mountain snow will come through Monday, with showers lingering into Tuesday. There's the potential for a relatively strong storm to pass through in about a week, so we'll see about that.

SEVERE WEATHER

Big area of the South, in yellow, under threat for severe weather Saturday.
A possibly even bigger area is possibly under the same threat Sunday. 

The increase in storminess across the nation, combined with the fact that it's spring, means the potential for severe weather and tornadoes is really ramping up now.

The first round of severe weather starts today in Texas, part of the storm system that will affect us here in Vermont by Monday.

A very big area of the nation, which includes much of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana Saturday, are in for large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes Saturday. 

An even bigger area encompassing a broad area along and a couple hundred miles either side of the central and southern Mississippi River is under the gun for this severe weather on Sunday.

Following that is a larger storm during the middle of next week in the middle of the nation. If that one shapes up like it appears it might, that would produce an even more intense round of severe weather and possible tornadoes in the southern Plains, and Mid-South next week.

After that, the parade of storms will probably continue with more threats of severe weather.

FLOODS INTENSIFY?

Especially the areas in pink, purple and red can expect heavy precipitation
over the next week or so. 

The northern and central Plains are still reeling from spring floods this year, and much of the Mississippi River, among many other major waterways are still in flood.

This upcoming parade of storms threatens to unleash another deluge on these areas. Up to two inches of precipitation are expected in just the next seven days in parts of the Plains. Then more storms will come after that.

Some of this might come down as snow, which further delays spring planting preparations. And that snow will melt, of course, leading to more water in already badly flooded areas.

Parts of the southern Mississippi Valley had heavy rain and flash flooding on Thursday. The storms will produce more heavy rain in that area over the next week or two.

I guess this is turning out to be the spring of our discontent.

United States Just Had Its Wettest Winter On Record. Floods Next?

The United States had its wettest winter on record, says NOAA
All the states in blue were wetter than normal. Dark blue
represents a much wetter than normal winter. 

For the United States as a whole, this past winter was the wettest on record. Which means floods.

Yeah, we already had 'em, especially in places like Tennessee and California.

But since a lot of the precipitation came down as snow in parts of the country, the high water will spread to those northern areas that are snowy at the moment.

Climatologists use the period from December 1 to February 28 to define winter.  During that time, precipitation averaged across the United States amounted to 9.01 inches. That barely exceeds the old record of 8.99 inches during the winter of 1997-1998.

This past winter, the wetness was distributed over almost the entire nation. The only places that were not wetter than average were Washington State, parts of the northern Rockies and New Mexico. Even there, precipitation was near average for the winter.

As mentioned, Tennessee, which seemed to be having floods every time you turned around this winter, not surprisingly had its wettest winter on record. Eighteen states, mostly in Midwest and Ohio and Tennesse valleys had a winter that was in the top 10 wettest.

Here in Vermont, it was the 11th wettest out of the past 124 winters.

The predominant weather pattern featured storms entering the West Coast of the United States and then heading east, then northeast toward the Great Lakes. This ensured that most places in the nation got precipitation from this parade of storms.

The wet winter continued a trend that became well established last year. Many cities near and east of the Mississippi River all the way to the Atlantic coast had their wettest year on record in 2018.

Writing in the Category 6 blog, Bob Henson said:

"Despite periods of intense drought in recent years, especially toward the Southwest - with the impacts worsened by rising temperatures - the overall trend over the last century has been toward wetter U.S. conditions. The 48-state annual precipitation average is now around 31 inches, compared to 29 inches a century ago."

A two-inch increase over 100 years might not seem like a lot, but it is if you consider you have to average out all the dry and wet spots yearly in a vast nation like the United States.

Much of the winter precipitation came down as snow in the northern tier of states near the Canadian border from Washington to Wisconsin, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and in far northern New England, especially northern Maine.

Snow depths are now great in many of these areas and the water content in the snow is high. That sets the stage for spring flooding.

California National Weather Service offices issued a statement Thursday saying that there's an elevated risk of spring flooding in much of the Golden State.

The snowpack in the Sierra Nevada is above average. If the spring is warm, or if there are unusual rains, the flooding could get pretty intense. There's already been quite a bit of flooding in California this winter from heavy rains, especially in the Russian River basin.

In Minnesota, where the deep snow has the equivalent of up to six inches of rain locked into it, National Weather Service forecasters are expecting the highest risk of flooding in years. In this state, a wet autumn made the soil soggy. Then a deep freeze at the end of January made the ground freeze to a pretty good depth, so runoff won't soak in easily.

Then February had record snows, and there's a good chance of two more really big snowfalls in the coming week. When it finally warms up in Minnesota, there's bound to be quite a bit of flooding.

Further south in Iowa, forecasters said snowmelt alone will probably be enough to cause flooding. If it's a rainy spring, it could turn disastrous.

It will be interesting to see what happens along the Mississippi River, especially if this spring is wet. It's already at flood stage in its lower half. Some areas along the river are at major flood stage.

Although that southern flood crest will start to head toward the Gulf of Mexico, will it recede enough once the snowmelt surge from the North, and crests from the Missouri and possibly the Ohio rivers move into the region.

Closer to home northern Maine, and to a slightly lesser extent northern New Hampshire, are at a pretty high risk of flooding this spring.

As of Thursday, Caribou, Maine had received 151 inches of snow this winter, and there was 45 inches - nearly four feet - on the ground. There's nine to 14 inches of rainfall equivalent in that northern Maine snowpack, so the flood risk there this spring is way above average.

Here in Vermont, the National Weather Service in South Burlington just issued its latest spring flood outlook on Thursday.

Spring flooding in Cambridge, Vermont in April, 2014. Depending
on weather patterns and precipitation, similar flooding could
hit the Green Mountain State later this spring. 

Vermont is on the edge of the deep snow in far northern New England.  That brings us to a bottom line above average flood threat in the Northeast Kingdom, north-central and much of eastern Vermont.

The rest of the state has a near average flood threat, but the risk of ice jam floods is pretty high on most rivers, since they have a lot of ice in them and there's lingering ice jams still in place from thaws earlier in the winter.

Storms in the forecast for the next week to ten days don't look like they will have huge amounts of precipitation, so we're probably safe in the short term.

Spring flooding in Vermont, if it happens, is most likely in late March or April, and how much high water comes depends on whether we get particularly heavy rain storms or sharp, strong spikes in temperature that would lead to rapid snow melt.

A slow snow melt with relatively dry weather will mean little if any flooding.

There's a great chance that Lake Champlain will reach the flood stage of 100 feet sometime this spring. The lake level is already above normal for this time of year, being at 96.73 feet as of this morning.

A minor lake flood is good for the ecosystem, but a larger one - perhaps a level of 101 feet or more - can really cause some damage. I'm doubting the lake will get that high this spring unless we get a TON of rain in the coming six weeks or so.  A repeat of the devastating 2011 Lake Champlain flood does not look like it's in the cards this year, which is a good thing.

Up And Down January Proves Snowy; But Not THAT Much On Ground

The first day of January, 2019, featured no snow on the ground in
St. Albans, Vermont and it almost looked springlike, but......

January in Vermont has ended and February has begun, so it's time to assess the weather during the first month of 2019.

It certainly was an up and down month, as we'd go a few days with warmth, then a few days with cold, and back again.

There were never more than six days in a row with continuous below freezing temperatures. Thaws were frequent, but not huge or particularly long lasting.

Cold waves came in abundance, but they, too, were not anywhere close to record-setting.

In the end, Burlington's mean temperature for the month was. 17.3 degrees, or 1.4 degrees chillier than normal. Other locations in Vermont were a bit colder than that. Montpelier's 13.5 degree average temperature for January was 3.5 degrees colder than normal. St. Johnsbury was 2.9 degrees chillier than normal during January, 2019.

Even though temperatures yo-yo'd back and forth all month, we never did hit any super extremes. Burlington's warmest day during January was 44 degrees and the coldest was minus 16.  Neither of these temperatures came anywhere close to setting any records.

The frequent temperature changes during January hint at the idea there was a lot of storminess, and sure enough, the month was wet and snowy.

Burlington has 3.29 inches of precipitaition which was about 1.2 inches more than normal. It fell just outside the Top 10 list of wettest Januaries. Other places were wetter. Montpelier had 3.71 inches of precipitation, and St. Johnsbury was soggy at 4.64 inches.

Much of this precipitation came down as snow, of course, and Vermont was really snowy. Burlington's 41.8 inches of snow for the month made this January the third snowiest. Only the Januaries of 2010 (48.4 inches) and 1978 (42.4 inches) were snowier.

....by the last day of the month, there was nearly a foot of snow on
the ground in St. Albans after frequent snows during January.  

Because of the frequent thaws, there was never that much snow on the ground despite the amount of flakes coming from the sky.

The most snow on the ground in Burlington was briefly 18 inches. There were only five days during the month in which the snow depth exceeded 10 inches.

If you go a little higher in elevation, the snow stayed on the ground a little better.

On the final day of the month, there was 33 inches of snow on the ground in Waterbury, 31 inches in Pomfret and 30 inches in Sheffield. The summit of Mount Mansfield had an impressive 98 inch deep snow cover.

Northern New England had a lot of snow in January, and southern New England had very little. Boston only had 2.1 inches of snow in January. Providence, Rhode Island only managed 1.6 inches.

There's no such thing as normal, really, since the normal for any period is the some total of a month's ups and downs.

Still, we like to compare things to "normal." Especially as we look ahead into this new month.  February usually is the point at which we start getting past the heart of winter. By later in February, the sun feels a little stronger, and thaws become a little more likely.

Then again, it can get brutally cold any time in February. It has been known to get into the 20s and 30s below any time during the second month of the year in Vermont. We had something like ten mornings in a row in Vermont during February 1979 when the temperature stayed almost continuously below zero, bottoming out in the 30s below zero. Some of state's biggest snowstorms have come in February.

On the other hand, there's Februaries like 1981, in which temperatures were in the 50s and 60s for more than a week. Or February, 2017, when temperatures soared into the 70s in Burlington and Bennington. Or even last year, when Bennington topped out at a summery 78 degrees.

Of course, it's impossible to know what this month will bring. It's off to a somewhat chilly start this morning, but nothing out of the ordinary for February. It's going to warm up starting Sunday, and the first half of next week will feature thawing. Beyond that is anyone's guess.

Annoying, Hard-To-Forecast Storm Leaving, Cold Pours In

It was still snowing at mid morning in Montpelier, as  this
snowy web came view of the State Capitol indicates.

The snow in Vermont and surrounding areas is slowly tapering off as we head into this mid-morning Thursday as a storm that was frustrating for meteorologists and weather geeks begins to depart.

Although the broad outlines of the forecasts ahead of the storm were right, the system's dynamics and its stage of development had meteorologists pulling out their hair.

It quickly became apparent later on Tuesday - almost at the last minute - that this wouldn't be the minor system we anticipated a couple days earlier. Then, forecasting where the heaviest snow would come down, the temperatures, the risk of mixed precipitation near the onset, were all difficult.

Winter storm warnings and advisories seemed to change by the hour as forecasters caught up with the storm.  Parts of the Champlain Valley and southeastern Vermont got more snow than anticipated, while other areas got a bit less.

In the end, the storm did, and is dumping more snow in the mountains than in the valleys, as expected.

What maded this storm difficult is that it was just in its initial developing phase as it formed over roughly Ohio Tuesday, then made its way across Pennsylvania and New York, and then into New England Wednesday.

When a storm is just beginning to gather steam, as this one was, my opinion is they're harder to figure out, and small differences in anticipated air temperatures, air flow and the like can make things especially tricky to forecast.

Usually, by the time a storm reaches New England, or the coast, or the Great Lakes and starts affecting us, the storm is mature. By then, it's more likely to follow "the rules" and thus is a bit easier to forecast, although these things can still surprise.

This week's storm wasn't mature when it got to us, and it confounded us a bit.

By today, the storm IS mature, and is "behaving" more like a storm ought to as it spins its way into the Canadian Maritimes.  So,  unlike on Tuesday and the first half of Wednesday the weather late last night and this morning turned out just about as expected, for once.

Forecasters knew a spoke of energy rotating around the back side of the storm early this morning would enhance snowfall over northern Vermont, and that indeed happened. That spoke of energy is departing, and now we're transitioning into a very normal post-storm pattern.

Northwest winds around the back side of the storm are focusing the snow on the Adirondacks, the west slopes and summits of the Green Mountains, the higher elevations of the Northeast Kingdom, and the White Mountains of New Hampshire.

I don't think areas outside the zones I just described will get much more snow. Maybe another inch or two, three at the very, very most.

In those mountain locations, the snow should keep going the rest of the day and probably into this evening, so several more inches of fluff will come down there.

So far, central Vermont is the big winner in the snow accumulation derby. They're closing in on a foot of new snow in Waterbury and Waitsfield. Morgan in the Northeast Kingdom reports 10 inches of new snow, and there are mulitple reports of 9 inches along the western slopes from South Lincoln to Jeffersonville and Fairfax and beyond. They'll get some more before this ends.

Cold air was delayed in coming in yesterday. It was still in the low 30s last evening across most of the North Country.

Now, normalitiy is back. The cold air is gushing in on gusty northwest winds. It's still not too bad out there this morning, with temperatures mostly in the 20s. But temperatures will fall this afternoon, and that bitter cold air we've been talking about will establish itself. Winds are already gusting past 30 mph in many locations. This will blow the snow around and add a lot of bite to the air for the rest of the day.

Wind chill advisories are up for late tonight and most of Friday morning for the Adirondacks and a good chunk of north central and northeastern Vermont, as those wind chills sink into 20s below zero.

High temperatures for many of us won't crack 10 degrees Friday and possibly Saturday. We have a couple nights at least of subzero readings ahead of us before temperatures moderate early next week.

As far as storms go, we're temporarily entering a very quiet period. One storm will scoot by far to our south Sunday and Monday and not have any effect on us.

Really the only thing I see coming through between now and about January 19 or so is another cold front during the middle of next week, which would throw a few snow showers our way, with light accumulations at best.

This Morning's N. New England Snow Will Continue Into Thursday

Updated snow prediction map from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington. Now, most of Vermont
including the majority of the Champlain Valley will
get at least six inches ofnew sow. The areas expecting
a foot or more (dark orange and red) have also
expanded. 

UPDATE: NOON WEDNESDAY

This storm continues to over-perform as the snowfall in parts of northern Vermont is still even heavier than expected.

The amounts keep going up. Remember two days ago we thought this would be no big deal. I guess it was.  

The winter storm warning has been widened to include the Champlain Valley north of Ferrisburg. This area was just under a winter weather advisory earlier.

Pretty much all of Vermont is now under a winter storm warning except the western halves of Addison and Rutland counties, n the southeastern corner of Vermont.

Snowfall has really picked up in the Champlain Valley this morning, as north winds funneling down the valley are making the air squeeze, which means it rises. Rising air enhances snowfall rate.

There are numerous reports of over four inches of snow already and it will continue to pile up

It now looks like the Burlington area will get at least six inches of total snowfall out of this, if not ore. Up in the northern Champlain Valley totals might approach a foot around St. Albans, at least in areas a few miles inland from Lake Champlain.

Much of the snow that's falling across Vermont is wet and heavy, and that's causing some tree and power line damage.

There were a good 3,000 or so homes and businesses without power as of 11:30 this morning. Thankfully, the temperature will  slowly drop this afternoon, so the snow will take on a more powdery consistency. So most of the additional snow will blow off branches and lines. This won't be nearly as bad as the power failures in the big wet snowstorm in late November, when tens of thousand of Vermonters lost power

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

I'm sure you had a lovely commute this morning if you live in northern New York and most of northern New England, including here in Vermont.

Wet snow made the roads slick. The temperature is falling and some of the slush is turning into ice.

Well, get used to it. For most of us, it will keep snowing all day, and the temperature will keep falling all day, too.

Winter storm warnings are up for the entire Green Mountain range, and north central and northeastern Vermont, where total snow accumulations by Thursday evening will be in the eight to 14 inch range, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont.

Elsewhere, expect three to seven inches of fresh powder. These zones are under a winter weather advisory. 

OK, it's not the biggest snowstorm ever. But it will harass us through Thursday, as mentioned, so we have to deal with it.

Also, as noted yesterday, the big winners out of this snow will be the Green Mountain range and the western slopes of those mountains. I'm sure the ski areas will love this.

We're still expecting a cold snap Friday through Sunday at least as an Arctic high pressure system noses down toward us from Ontario and Quebec.

Snow lovers are still hoping for a coastal storm to bring more snow to parts of the Northeast. It's still possible areas well south of Vermont might pick up some snow, but all indications at this point are that any storminess will stay well south of us Sunday and Monday.

In fact, we're in for a long stretch of  cold, dry weather. Temperatures will go up and down through at least January 19 but stay generally near or below normal, with the exception of a day or two here or there ahead of cold fronts that might be relatively mild.

At this point, it also looks like it will be quite dry here in Vermont at least through January 18 or 19 or so with only weak systems zipping through with light snows. Of course, there's always a risk of surprises this time of year, so this dry forecast might be a bust. But after today and tonight, for now, expect no exciting storms at least through mid month.

Same Parts Of Nation Flooded All Summer Getting It Again

Today, these areas of the nation are subject to flash floods. The area
in red, mostly in Iowa, is most at risk, but anywhere from Kansas
to Wisconsin is under the gun.

My place in northwestern Vermont has been too dry this summer, but the opposite has happened here in Yankton, South Dakota, where I'm staying for the week with relatives.

It has rained and rained and rained out here this summer in a location that is usually a little dusty this time of year.

My mother in law's basement flooded a couple of times, and the community garden in Yankton was pretty much wiped out when a creek overflowed earlier this summer.

On the bright side, the flowers I planted for my mother-in-law back in May are doing better than I expected.

The rain and flooding has been even worse a little further to east in eastern Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin with repeated flooding events. And it's getting worse.

Since I got to Yankton on Friday, I have seen wave after wave of torrential thunderstorms march across Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin, setting off severe thunderstorms and repeated flash flooding. Mercifully, so far, hese storms have missed Yankton, and we have only had a couple of bouts with drizzle.

This weather pattern is going to continue for the next few days, and with saturated ground in parts of the Midwest, there is a really significant danger of additional dangerous flash floods.

Today, the greatest risk of flash flooding seems to be over Iowa, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin as one thunderstorm after another is expected to roll over this region in a stalled weather pattern.

It looks like Iowa, Wisconsin and surrounding areas will remain under the gun on Labor Day.  If anything, the flood risk in this region could get worse on Tuesday before cold front diminishes the chances of heavy rain starting Wednesday.

Meanwhile, parts of Pennsylvania are picking up the pieces after yet another round of flooding on Friday. Areas around Lancaster, Pennsylvania were especially hard hit. Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and other areas of the Mid-Atlantic have been pummeled by flooding all summer.

Luckily, it's temporarily looking a little drier there for the next few days, so only isolated flash flooding from widely scattered, slow moving thunderstorms is expected.

VERMONT UPDATE

We're still waiting on an end to summer and more rain in the Green Mountain State, and we're going to have to wait awhile longer. It will generally be very warm and humid through at least Wednesday, with the worst days being Monday and Wednesday.

Those days will be well into the 80s with high humidity and heat indexes in the 90s. It will be vaguely cooler and drier on Tuesday, but not by much. There are chances of thunderstorms here and there, especially Monday afternoon and evening in the north, but not everybody will get them and they won't last long.

Which means we won't get the soaking rains we need. Some sort of cold front on Thursday will probably push the warmth, humidity and showers out of the picture.

The weather this upcoming weekend is still a bit uncertain, but there's the potential we could finally get some true autumnal weather. It's possible high temperatures on Saturday might only get into the 60s, if a high pressure system to the north prevails.

If this high really takes charge, we'd end up with those cool temperatures, bright sunshine, low humidity and a brisk breeze. We'll see on that.  I'm also entirely not sure if this potential cool weather really, truly marks the end of the summer heat until next year.

Wild March In Vermont Comes Out "Normal" Here's How

Tonks the Weather Dog warily watches a heavy layer of snow slide
off our roof amid deep snows in mid-March, St. Albans, Vermont.
To anyone out in Vermont weather this March the weather
seemed abnormal. But average out the extremes, and the month
turned out about normal in the weather department. 

March was consistently warm. It was consistently cold. There was a lot of snow. Lots of storms. Nor'easters.

So the climate summary for the month in Vermont will have off the charts weird stats, right?  

Wrong.

The only weather statistic of note I could find was that Burlington, Vermont had its sixth snowiest March, with 30.1 inches of snow.

But that was nowhere near the snowiest March, in 2011, when there was 47.6 inches of snow.

Other than that, the month seems
like a yawner on paper, even the weather was anything but boring in March.

East of the Green Mountains, Vermont's snowfall in March, 2018 was heavy, but not record breaking. Except perhaps in the far southern Green Mountains.

The mean temperature in Burlington in March, 2018 was 31.3, just 0.3 degrees "warmer" than normal. But we can really call temperatures for the month normal, since it was so close to average.

However, temperatures got "stuck" in various ways during the month. Typically, you get a couple, few days of warmer than average temperatures, folllowed by one, two, or three days that are on the cool side, back to warm, etc.

Not this month. Each of the first 15 days of March in Burlington were warmer than normal. That was followed by 12 consecutive days of colder than average weather. (The last four days we a bit on the warm side.)

Average the two long temperatures out, and you see how we came close to "normal" for the month, though it didn't feel normal.

Interestingly, the hottest day of March, 2018 was much cooler than February's hottest day. In February, Burlington had its second warmest February temperature on record --- 69 degrees. The warmest day we could muster in March, 2018 was just 54 degrees. It was the coolest "high" for March in years.

Also, the coldest temperature of the month in both February and March was minus 2.

Elsewhere in Vermont, March turned out just a wee bit cooler than normal, but not by much. Essentially, it was normal.

Rain and melted snow amounts for March, 2018 turned out to be very close to normal, too. Burlington had 2.63 inches of precipitation, which was a little less than half an inch above normal. Monpelier and St. Johnsbury were pretty much on the money for precipitation during the month.

As I always say, I don't know what the next month has in store for us. I have a feeling that April as a whole will be cooler than normal here in Vermont. I base that on projections indicating the first two weeks of the month will be chilly. And some days during that period will be much colder than normal.

Long range projections are never that good, and right now, they're not at all helpful at predicting what the second half of April will be like. It will be warm unless it's cold, and wet unless it's dry. That doesn't tell you much, does it?

Now's The Time To Start Watching Lake Champlain Lake Level

Lake Champlain waves crash onto Route 2 in Grand Isle in April, 2011 as
the lake was rising toward a record crest a few weeks later.

The first good thaw and rain of the spring came Thursday and Friday, which meant the first good rush of water into Lake Champlain since February.

This is the time of year when we'll begin to watch the water level of Lake Champlain creep upward.

As of Friday, the start of the melt season, the lake level was more than 3.5 feet below flood stage.

It might or might not get to the flood stage of 100 feet above sea level this spring. It depends on how much rain we get, and how fast the snow melts.

Flood stage on Lake Champlain is not a bad thing at all. The ecosystem of the lake needs its annual rise and fall to maintain itself. The floods help the natural cycle of wildlife. The lake doesn't reach flood stage every year, but even if it gets close, it helps with ecology of the lake.

Us humans, of course, don't like flooding, because we build things that can get wrecked too close to the shore. If the lake barely reaches flood stage - say it rises to between 100 and 100.5 feet above sea level, that really isn't a big deal. Which is good, because spring lake levels of just over 100 feet are pretty damn common.

At that level, some roads very close to the lake get flooded, the park at Perkins Pier in Burlington goes underwater and waves can cause some shoreline erosion around summer camps and such. But such flooding is just a routine part of spring.

Once you start getting water levels above 101 feet, damage starts to occur. The worst, flooding, during the memorable spring of 2011, brought Lake Champlain water levels to a record 103.27 feet. As we remember, there was widespread, very extensive damage around the lake in Vermont, New York and Quebec.

As for this year, it doesn't look like we'll come anywhere close to those levels in 2011, unless there are unprecedented rains, even beyond the record downpours of April and May, 2011.  In other words, no worries.

It's unclear as to whether we'll even make it to the minor flood stage of 100 feet above sea level. It could, because there's still plenty of snow in the mountains and an active jet stream means we have the potential for relatively frequent rains and snows - at least through the first half of April.

On the other hand, if the storms are small and the snow melt is gradual, the lake level won't rise all that much.

As we see the lake level slowly rise in April, take it this way - it's a sign spring is really taking hold. We still might need to wait a little while for full on spring. But on a snowy early April day when you notice the lake is a bit higher than it was a week earlier, you can still have confidence warmer days are ahead.

Saturday Update: Surprise Friday Snow, Temporary Spring Still Coming

After much of the snow in my St. Albans, Vermont yard
disappeared in 50 degree temperatures on Thursday,
 an unexpected 3.3 inches of new snow that fell Friday
returned my property to a wintery look Saturday morning.

I was frankly a bit dismayed Friday evening as I drove home from work in Burlington, Vermont, which barely got a dusting of snow during the day, to my house in St. Albans, Vermont, where I measured 3.3 inches of new powder that came down during the day. 
Some northern areas of Vermont, like St. Albans, got more snow than expected as a cold front came through during the day. There was enough moisture in the air to wring out when the cold front invaded.

When I said yesterday that, regarding this early preview of spring, results would vary. They did.

A more expected storm is still expected to hit southern New England tonight, with a quick burst of five to 8 inches of snow likely in most of Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Similar amounts are likely near or just north of New York City. 

But that will be it for winter for the next several days as the long awaited big thaw is still coming.  The new snow in southern New England will almost certainly be melting rapidly by Sunday afternoon.

It's already developing as warm air builds in the Southeast and off the Southeast coast. There were record highs in the low 80s Friday in North Carolina. While that warmth has temporarily subsided down there, it will resurge - all the way to New England next week.

All the picky details still need to be worked out. Nobody knows exactly where warm fronts and cold fronts will set up, and when they will go through our region.

If fronts stall close to Vermont Monday through Wednesday, the warmth will be tempered by clouds and rain, but it will still be warm -- with unseasonable readings in the 50s. If the sun breaks through, it could get ridiculous, with temperatures maybe topping 60 degrees.

Places as far north as southern New England could reach 70 degrees. Like I said, insane!

Also, like I noted yesterday, despite the oncoming warmth, winter is NOT over. I'm absolutely certain we'll have at least an occasional bout in March with mid-winter style cold and snowstorms.

Early End To Vermont Winter? Well........It's Complicated

Tonks the Weather Dog out in our St. Albans, Vermont
driveway today sniffing the air for early signs of spring.
Tonks says there are subtle, vague indications to be hopeful.

This seems to be turning out to be - at least from what I can see - as something I'd call a front-loaded winter in Vermont.

The winter hit earlier than in recent years way back in November and December. And as you'll recall, by the second half of December and early January, the weather got quite harsh.

Since then, it's been a relatively easy season, as far as Vermont winters go, and there's nothing in the immediate forecast that I would call all that wintry. In fact, there are signs most of the rest of February will be kind of gentle.

Looking back in more detail, November turned out to be a little colder than normal, and December was more than three degrees chillier than what we would normally expect.

Then there was that first week of January when the temperature fell to a record 20 below in Burlington, Vermont and close to 40 below in some of the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom.

Then we got a break, and despite some wintry shots, we've been coasting since. It's as if winter got all revved up and exhausted itself early. Like I said, front loaded. The second half of January was more than seven degrees warmer than normal.

February so far is running 3.5 degrees warmer than normal in Burlington. Though it's somewhat chilly today, the forecast indicates the running February average will get even more above normal in the coming days.

We're expecting highs in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday. After cooling off to near normal readings Friday and Saturday, we go back above normal next week, and could get all the way to almost the end of the month with the majority of the days being on the toasty side.

I would almost dare to bet my next paycheck that it won't get down to 20 below again in Burlington this winter.

By mid-February, the Vermont winter cold usually begins to show signs of abating anyway. It least in most years. The sun feels a little warmer in these longer days, and the normal average temperature begins to creep up. It's just this year, the early signs of winter's end seem just a tad more pronounced than in some years.

One thing this means is, I'm hoping Vermont sugarmakers are ready to start their season early once again. It's looking more and more likely there's some decent sap runs coming in the next couple of weeks.

There has been a general trend in Vermont and elsewhere for earlier seasons anyway in recent years.

You want to catch the sap now, in case March turns out much warmer than normal, which would end the season early. Of course, at this point, we have no idea what kind of month March will be.

March is, of course, a wild card. Probably the most wild card month of the year. True, we've had a warm March here and there, like in 2012, in which Vermonters spent a week during March in summery temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. 

We also know March can be extremely wintry. Just last year, after Burlington, Vermont reached an incredible, unprecedented 72 degrees in late February, March brought us the three-foot- deep Pi-day blizzard and a deep snow cover that lasted into the first days of April.

March, 2007 and March 1993 might as well have been midwinter months, they were so cold and snowy, so you can see anything can happen.

Winter might or might not be largely over, but we can now take comfort in the fact that this winter will not go down in history as severe as we thought it would be back at Christmastime. Even if March turns out to be rough on us.

A thunderstorm looms over St. Albans, Vermont on
August 28. More storms, some with welcome rain
but umwelcome gusty winds, are possible
in Vermont today. d

As anyone up here in Vermont knows, it's awfully warm for September.

Sometimes with the heat comes the storms, and there's actually a risk of severe thunderstorms both today and Saturday.

Certainly, only a few areas will get severe weather today. Some areas, especially in the southeastern half of Vermont, might not get any storms or rain at all.

Which is too bad, because everybody needs the rain, and the need for wetness is stronger in southern Vermont than the north.

At least up north there were a few rounds of storms back in the closing days of August. Those Augusts storms missed the south.

So overall, most storms that do get going today will do more good than harm. Because, you know. Rain.

Still, there's the risk that some storms could produce strong, damaging wind gusts. This is especially true in the northwestern part of Vermont and northern New York. Again, most people will escape the damage, but a few unlucky folks will lose a tree, or a few branches, or have their electricity cut for a little while

Actually, the low, but real risk of a few severe thunderstorms runs in a long stripe from Kansas to western New England, including western Vermont. 

Up in our neck of the woods, storms should get going in northern New York near or shortly after noon, then wander into Vermont this afternoon and evening.

The humidity has creeped upward, so some of the storms could have torrential rains. Not the kind of rain we need. It would be better if we got something slow and steady.

On the bright side, there's an even better chance of rain Saturday when a warm front, then a cold front are expected to pass through Vermont.

However, it's beginning to look like some storms Saturday afternoon could turn strong to severe, so we'll have to keep an eye on that.

More details to follow as we get closer to Saturday.

Torrid Weather About To Torch Much Of The Nation

Looks like most of the nation over the next week
or two is going to be even hotter than the
normal July heat. The exception is an expected
cool Pacific Northwest and parts of Alaska.  

For most, but not all of the nation, mid-July is traditionally the most likely time of year to get the nastiest heat wave of the year.

Cue the hot spell!

A big, huge subtropical ridge of high pressure is setting itself up in the middle of the country, and that promises to engulf much of the nation in very, very hot weather.

Most of the heat will cover the southern Rocky Mountains, most of Plains States and most of the nation east of the Mississippi River.

Except in the Southwest, the heat will be accompanied by terrible humidity. The heat will largely miss the Pacific Northwest.

The heat ridge will tend to wax and wane a little bit periodically, but it's probably going to generally stay put for close to two weeks at least.

It'll be centered in the middle of the nation, so that's the spot that should experience the worst and most persistent heat for much of the rest of July.

The northern tier of states and the Northeast, especially New England, will be on the outer edges of this Heat Ridge From Hell.

The good news is that there will probably be occasional cold fronts, so the heat will come and go. You know the pattern: Hot 'n humid for a couple days, then refreshing, then back to the steam bath.

The bad news is being on the edges of the Heat Ridge From Hell ups the chances of severe weather outbreaks.

This is especially true if you happen to be on the northeast side of his big hot bubble. (which is most likely in this pattern in New England.

The air aloft will be coming from the northwest, the heat will be trying to invade from the southwest, and this combination can create lines of bad storms or even, in rare cases, dangerous derechos.

There's no guarantee any of those severe storms would happen, and it's really impossible to tell more than a day ahead of time if there will be any severe weather.

But the potential is there across the northern tier, especially the Northeast, much of the rest of the month.

Another caveat is forecasts can get iffy beyond a few days, so the intensity and location of the worst heat might be a bit different from what I'm laying out here.

Meanwhile, try to stay cool!

California Drought: Things Are Better, But Not That Great

Last April 1, water managers tried to measure snow
in a high Sierra field, but came up empty. There should
be several feet of snow on the ground there
this time of year.  

Around the first of April last year, Frank Gehrke, chief of the California Cooperative Snow Surveys Program, strolled out into an alpine meadow in the Sierra Nevada mountains to measure the snowpack.

There was no snow to measure. Just green grass and dust. The moment encapsulated the dire water shortages California was facing in a record drought. The Sierra snowpack was just 5 percent of normal about a year ago.

This week, Gehrke strolled out into that same Sierra alpine meadow. This time he happily trudged through deep snow.

He poked a measuring stick into the slush and powder, and discovered the snow was 58 inches deep, says the Los Angeles Times.

The snow was packed down tight in that field. It held the equivalent of 26 inches of rain. That's just a wee bit below normal, 97 percent of normal to be exact.

The same Sierra meadow as above on March 30 this
year had a welcome snow cover of 58 inches.  

Which means, in terms of drought, things have vastly improved in California, but the state has a long way to go to recover to normal levels of moisture in the snow, in the ground, in the reservoirs, in the aquifers.

Thanks to El Nino, that periodic warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, a number of wet storms slammed into California over the winter.

But compared to other big El Nino years the amount of precipitation in California over the past several months was "Meh." The state was counting on El Nino to deliver epic rains and snows.

El Nino only delivered something close to average for a winter. Not enough to get California out of the hole.

In fact, southern California in particular missed out on the storms. San Diego had the least amount of winter precipitation of any El Nino year on record. As noted, El Nino years in California are normally quite wet.

Last year, when Gehrke had no snow to measure, California Gov. Jerry Brown declared there would have to be a 25 percent reduction in California water use for the year, a goal the state largely met.

With this year's good but not spectacular snow and rain, the governor left the restrictions in place.

Here's how Gehrke describes the current situation, as reported in the Los Angeles Times:

"We're barely average. It stops the downward slide.....Now we're clearly looking at next year, and there are no reliable indicators of what next year will bring."

There's the rub. El Nino is fading, and we don't know what the weather patterns will be like next winter in California.

The Golden State gets next to no rain from late spring, through summer into the autumn. That's normal.

The question is, will the dry times return to California next winter? Will they get more welcome storms, or will the pattern flip back to dry?

Moreover, will temperatures continue to run well above normal, as they have in California for the past few years. High temperatures prematurely melt the Sierra snowpack and increase evaporation, hastening water losses.

These trends can have long term consequences. Farmers in California, especially in the south, are scaling back, because we are possibly in a "new normal" that features a drier California, notes Yale Climate Connection.

Maybe farms will just move north, and farming will be a thing of the past in southern California. Time will tell.

Tornado Season Past, But That Doesn't Mean We Won't Get More Tornadoes

A tornado near Gilman, Minnesota on Sunday.  

It's late summer, so the spring and early summer tornado season is gone.

So we don't have to worry about twisters, right?

Wrong.

There are fewer tornados in the United States once we get into August and beyond, but that doesn't mean we're in the clear.

True, the average number of tornadoes in the United States falls from about 240 in June to 74 in September and down to 24 in December. But any tornado can be dangerous, and they can form any time of year.

Strong cold fronts this time of year can help produce tornados, although the outbreaks aren't nearly as widespread as they are in the spring.  Minnesota just got hit by a tornado on Sunday.  

We're also getting into hurricane season.  Once a hurricane or tropical storm makes landfall, the storms can generate tornadoes even days after they hit shore. That's particularly true if the dying hurricane interacts with other weather fronts or disturbances. interact with other weather disturbances, or t......

Then in October and November, the large scale storm systems get stronger as we head toward winter. That can create a secondary tornado season in the United States, but one that's not nearly as big as the one in the spring.

One ingredient in the formation of tornadoes is the strong spring and early summer sun that can destabilize the atmosphere to help supercell storms to form. That strong sun is missing in November.

But on a few occasions, as was the case in a big tornado outbreak last November 17,  a storm can overcome the lack of heating from the sun and cause a nasty round of twisters.

Below is a video of the tornado in Minnesota last weekend.

In the video,  I bet the occupants of the house in the foreground at about 45 seconds in were REALLY glad the twister was barely able to miss them, instead of scoring a direct hit.

Watch: