Matt's Weather Rapport is written by Vermont-based journalist and weather reporter Matt Sutkoski. This blog has a nationwide and worldwide focus, with particular interest in Vermont and the Northeast. Look to Matt's Weather Rapport for expert analysis of weather events, news, the latest on climate change science, fun stuff, and wild photos and videos of big weather events. Also check for my frequent quick weather updates on Twitter, @mattalltradesb
A hot, steamy day in Burlington, Vermont in 2018. In June we've re-written the heat records of June in recent years.
I noticed quite a June trend in recent years in the weather record books for Burlington, Vermont.
The last several years have totally transformed the listed record highs in the second half of June.
The National Weather Service has been keeping track of the weather in Burlington since the 1880a. records.
Over the more than 100 years from around 1885 to 1994, the warmest it ever got in Burlington during June was 96 degrees.
Since 1994 just the last quarter century or so, it has gotten to 96 degrees in June at least another 11 times including twice last week.
And let's not even talk about the record for longest June heat wave - six days in a row - set just this past week.
We've almost totally re-written the record book for June highs since 1991. In the last 14 days of June, eight of the daily record highs have been set just since 2007. All but one of the record highs in that period came after 1990.
We tied the record for the second hottest reading in Burlington with a high of 100 degrees on June 19,1995. It was only the third day on record it had been 100 degrees in the Queen City
We still get record daily lows in Burlington, of course. I did find a single recent daily record low in June - a reading of 36 degrees on June 2, 2003. But other than that, I can't find a daily record low in June newer than one set on June 24, 1988 when it was 40 degrees.
Consistent with climate change, daily record highs have been exceeding record lows, though of course you can still get cold snaps in a warmer world.
By my quick count - and somebody can check this if they'd like - I see 29 daily record highs tied or broken in Burlington since July 1 2017 and just five record lows tied or broken.
We're not expecting any record highs or lows in the next few days, of course. But fasten your seat belts, we're sure to have more record warm episodes to come.
So close and yet so far. A thunderstorm juuusst missed my
parched gardens in St. Albans, Vermont last evening, leaving
me literally in the dust. Photo taken while I was watering
said garden as I watched the storm depart toward the east.
The heat goes on in Vermont, at least for one more day today as records fall due to the persistent heat wave.
The temperature reached 96 degrees in Burlington Monday, exceeding the old record of 92 set in 1921. It was the fifth consecutive day of 90+ heat, making it the longest such stretch on record for the month of June.
That record just got extended.
It was 90 degrees at noon in Burlington. That's six days in a row at 90 or above. That ties the record for the second longest heat wave on record in Burlington.
Today's 90 also means we tie with 1949 the record for the most 90 degree days in the month of June - which is seven.
Today's record high in Burlington is 93 degrees. We have a good shot of reaching that, too. If it gets to 94 degrees today, we will be in a four way tie for the most consecutive days of 94 degree weather in Burlington, says WPTZ-TV meteorologist Ben Frechette. That would be four consecutive days of such weather.
Atop Mount Mansfield, the high temperature yesterday was 83 degrees, shattering the old record of 75 degrees set in 1998.
A remarkable record has been set on Lake Champlain. The water temperature, as measured roughly seven feet below the surface was 79 degrees this morning, which is the hottest the lake water has been since they started keeping track in 1972.
Lake Champlain water temperature, by the way, usually peaks in August.
I'm theorizing a unique set of circumstances created this hot Lake Champlain water. It's been dry, so cool river water has not been flowing in. More importantly, mainly clear skies have been sitting over the lake for days on end right around the Summer Solstice, which offers plenty of time for the sun to heat the water.
A record long heat wave striking right at Summer Solstice also helped. Probably an even more important factor is winds have been light winds for several days now. Strongest wind gusts over the past week have been under 20 mph, except in highly local areas that were near isolated thunderstorms
With a little more wind, clouds and somewhat cooler temperatures on the way, Lake Champlain water temperatures will fall somewhat, but stay unseasonably warm, is my guess.
Some relief is finally on the way, believe it or not, but it won't necessarily get chilly by any means.
As of late morning today, billowing thunderheads are already forming in the mountains. Unlike yesterday, these nascent storms are actually moving, so the percentage of us who will get some rain today will be a wee bit higher today than in the past few. Most of us will still miss out, I think.
Which is too bad. We really, really need the rain. Burlington, for instance, has just had a paltry 0.37 inches of rain this month. They should have accumulated about 2.7 inches during June so far had this month been anywhere near normal.
It was frustrating yesterday here in St. Albans, when a thunderstorm formed near Plattsburgh, dumping a wondrous 1.3 inches of rain on that city. The storm began to move slowly northeastward, right toward me.
But the storm collapsed on the way over, and all I got was a trace of rain and an outflow boundary that brought a brief, cool gust of wind of about 25 mph.
That outflow boundary created a new storm just to my east, which created a nice downpour there. That new storm headed east, away from St. Albans. For me, I was left in the dust, literally.
Although some of us have gotten some welcome rain in isolated storms - I see you @VermonsterWx - most of us have missed out just like me.
At least there's now hope of getting a little rain. If you avoid a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening, that welcome cold front will probably bring some more widespread showers and rumbles of thunder later tonight and Wednesday.
The timing of the front means there won't be a lot of rain, except for a handful of places that get bullseyed by a thunderstorm. But even a little will help. Generally we can expect a half inch of rain or less with this, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.
We have a second chance of some watering this weekend. A warm front and little storm system has the potential to dump some decent rains on us Saturday. Don't hold your breath on this one, though. Currently, it's a big maybe.
Temperatures will fall to near normal for a few days, starting Wednesday afternoon and going into the weekend. (Highs in the 75-82 degree range).
I do see some worrying signs that it could turn hot again as June closes and July begins. That's also a big maybe. It might well be not nearly as bad as the heat wave we just went through. But judging by the weirdness of this weather year, you never know.
The more north you go, the hotter it gets. Forecast highs for today. Northern Maine is expected to be in the mid-90s, but it'll only be 80 degrees or so once you get down to New Jersey.
As expected, it was quite a hot day in Vermont Thursday. Burlington made it up to 92 degrees. That was already the fourth day this year that made it to 90 degrees or better.
Normally, the Queen City has just five or six 90 degree days each summer, and most of those days come in July or August.
So we're ahead of the game. Especially since there's at least a chance today, tomorrow, or Sunday could also reach 90 degrees. The humidity is also going to increase.
However, we're just on the edge of an intense heat wave that's hitting northern Maine, southern Quebec and New Brunswick with some mind-blowing temperatures.
To begin with, the temperature maps are inverted. It's hotter the further north you go on the East Coast. The hottest place anywhere in the United States yesterday east of the Mississippi River was the northern tip of Maine.
Caribou got up to 95 degrees, a record for the date. Meanwhile, places like Atlanta, Georgia are still waiting for their first 90 degree day.
Some of the temperatures up in southeastern Canada were off the charts. At Sept Iles, way north along the north shore of the mouth of the St. Lawrence River, they experienced their all-time hottest temperature on record at 98 degrees.
Even further north, about 310 miles north of Montreal, Chibougamau, Quebec reached 91.5 degrees.
Jackson the weather dog sits in cool grass in the shade while taking observations of 90-degree heat in St. Albans, Vermont Thursday afternoon.
In New Brunswick, Bathurst reached 99 degrees on Thursday.
The heat will continue in full force across southeastern Canada and northern Maine today. Heat warnings are up for much of Quebec, including metrol Montreal. Caribou could have a high temperature of 97 degrees today, which would be the hottest reading there since at least 1939, when official records began.
Here in Vermont, it will be hot and humid through the weekend, but perhaps not as bad as points north. Most of the Green Mountain State can expect dailly hghs mostly between 85 and 90 degrees, probably through Tuesday.
There might be isolated thunderstorms, especially in the mountains, today through the weekend. Most of us will stay dry, though. So drought or drought like conditions will likely keep building.
Lilacs in front of my St. Albams, Vermonnt house. Hot weather is making them come and go too fast.
There was definitely a vaguely humid feel to the air this morning in St. Albans, Vermont as we got off to the start of a three, or even possibly four day spell of toasty weather.
At this point, temperatures look like they will be at near record levels this afternoon and tomorrow, with highs reaching 90 degrees or maybe even a little above that in the warmer valleys and 80s elsewhere in Vermont.
The record high for today in Burlington is 92 degrees and the record high Wednesday is 91, so those will be challenged. The all time record high for the month of May is 93 degrees, set in 1977 and 2017. There's a low chance that could be tied or broken.
Yes, it will be humid during this, but not as humid as during the worst mid-summer heat waves. Dew points are a good measure of how muggy it feels. Today and tomorrow, dew points will be in the low 60s.
Anything over 60 starts to feel humid for most people. If the dew point were at 70 degrees, that's oppressive and awful.
Of course, us humans get accustomed a bit to a consistent type of weather. This will be our first hot spell, so it will probably feel worse than it actually is. So if you're going to be outside working or playing, be doubly aware that you need to drink plenty of water and rest when you need to.
One bummer about the early season heat is that it makes flowers come and go so fast. Apple blossoms appeared and disappeared behind my house in just four days because it was so warm. My lilacs were barely starting to blossom Friday. Now they're already in full flower and will probably fade away by the end of the week. Oh well.
Lakes, especially bigger ones like Lake Champlain, are still cold, so you want to be careful boating. If you fall into the water, you're in trouble. The water is so cold it's paralyzing, and you could drown quickly because of that. Consider postponing that boating excursion until later in the summer. Or at least stay wicked close to shore.
The cold Lake Champlain water will have an interesting effect on local weather today and especially tomorrow.
The chilly water will generate lake breezes, so it will be much cooler on the immediate shore of the lake than inland just a bit.
The collision between the cool lake breezes and the hot air over land will essentially form boundaries, which are little weather fronts dividing the cool lake air and the hot land air. These little "weather fronts" might create just enough lift to trigger widely scattered showers and thunderstorms near them.
This hot air is pretty unstable, but there won't be a lot of lift in the atmosphere, so any storms will need a trigger, like those lake breeze boundaries. Once these thunderstorms get going, there's a slight chance one or two of them will get strong.
But they won't last long, and the vast majority of us won't see these thunderstorms. But they are another hazard to watch out for if you're near the lake.
Chances for showers and storms increase late in the week, especially on Friday as a cold front approaches. It will remain warm and humid both days, but there's a lesser chance of either day making it to 90 degrees.
A relatively brief shot of unusually chilly air will come in for the the last day of the month Sunday, and the first couple of days of June. It' might actually be cold enough for frosts in the colder valleys Monday morning, so if you're considering putting in your tomatoes in the cold spots, I'd wait a bit until we see how that upcoming cool spell plays out.
Like yesterday, more comparison photos. One of my frozen gardens in St. Albans, Vermont on May 9, this year.,.........
Kudos to WPTZ-TV meteorologist Tyler Jankoski, who alerted us to one of those weird potential records that fascinate us weather geeks.
This is Vermont, afte rall, so there's been measurable snow in Burlington during several Mays in the 128 years of weather records there.
There have also been several Mays with temperatures of 90 degrees or hotter. But those two things have not happened during the same May in this past century and quarter.
Until likely this year. Barely, though.
On May 9 this year, 0.1 inches of snow accumulated at the official National Weather Service site in South Burlington. Now, there's a decent possibility that temperatures in Burlington could reach 90 degrees Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday and Thursday. That would be a new one for May!
I've been comparing this month a lot to May, 1977, when basically the same thing happened. It snowed in most of New England that year on May 9 - the same day of the month it snowed this year. However, Burlington only received a trace of snow in May, 1977, so it wasn't measurable there.
Same garden this morning as we ramp up toward 90 degree heat later in the week.
By May 21-23, 1977, the temperature was in the low 90s. It was only one of two official May heat waves in Burlington. (It's officially a heat wave in these parts if the temperature is 90 degrees or warmer on three or more consecutive days).
And on May 23, 1977 the temperature reached 93, to establish an all-time high temperature for the month of May. That record was subsequently tied in 2017.
It's unclear whether we'll get three days in a row with 90 degree temperatures this upcoming week. It's even more doubtful we'll get to 93 degrees or past that, but you never know.
However, it's amazing how weather has repeated itself so precisely in May, 1977 and 2020.
I'm not sure I'm loving the idea of such hot weather already. Sure, I detested the snow earlier this month and have really enjoyed the sunny, warm, but not hot conditions over the past week. It will turn more humid during the upcoming hot spell as well, so it will be uncomfortable.
Fortunately, it looks like we'll continue the pattern of May, 1977 this year. That year, in 1977, high temperatures cooled to the 60s and 70s during most of the final days of that month. Longer range forecasts suggest the same will happen this year.
Not that history will keep repeating itself - it probably won't - but the subsequent summer of 1977 was for the most part coolish except for one week of exceptional heat in mid-July that year.
Daffodils in my garden in northwestern Vermont were getting ready to bloom yesterday, March 31, among the earliest I can remember.
Up until this year, the past few Marches in Vermont have been pretty wintry, with big, sometimes immense snowstorms and subzero chilly periods.
This year certainly broke the pattern, didn't it?
The stats from Burlington are kind of impressive, actually. The average temperature for March was 37.3 degrees, which was 6.3 degrees on the toasty side.
That was good enough to make the month the ninth warmest March on record, out of the past 135 years or so.
The warmest March on record was the insanely summerlike March of 2012, which feature three days that topped 80 degrees!
The warmth was statewide, with most places running around four or five degrees warmer than average this March.
This March, the warmth wasn't nearly as extreme as 2012, but if anything, was more consistent than in 2012. The coolest it ever got all month in Burlington was 11 degrees above zero. There have been a handful of Aprils with colder temperatures than that. The only day all month that failed to rise above freezing was March 1.
The result is one of the earliest starts to spring I can remember, as far as what the Vermont landscape looks like. In my memory, only 2012 had a "greener" look at the end of March..
Yesterday, the final day of March in Vermont, lawns are greening up around me in and near St. Albans, up in the northwest corner of the state. Most of my perennials in my gardens are up, and some early daffodils have flower buds and are almost ready to bloom. That usually doesn't happen until the middle or third week in April.
March, 2020 was also relatively gentle in Vermont in terms of storms, especially compared to what many Marches bring. Precipitation across the state was near average, with snowfall at or below normal.
A mourning dove, lower left, checks out some very early season green spring shoots in my St. Albans, Vermont garden on Tuesday.
No storms were particularly heavy, so the typical March ice jams and flooding during thaws never happened.
There were some early season thunderstorms in parts of the state on March 20 and especially on March 29, which is about a month before we Green Mountain boys and girls usually start seeing lightning an hearing thunder.
The March warmth this year was widespread, covering most of the nation, especially from the central Plains eastward. Final numbers aren't in, but I know many cities in the East will list March 2020 as one of their top five warmest on record.
An exception is northern Maine, where Caribou still had around a couple feet of snow on the ground as of yesterday. It was snowing there this morning.
As always, who knows what this new month will bring in terms of weather. The first couple of days will be coolish, but a milder trend is forecast to start Friday. Which means our very early spring will continue on, at least for now.
A storm in the North Atlantic, named "Dennis" by the British Met Office, is something to behold.
It could become the strongest storm on record in the North Atlantic, which is really saying something considering extremely powerful storms come a dime a dozen in the winter North Atlantic.
The lower the air pressure in the center of a storm, the stronger that storm is. The record lowest air pressure for a North Atlantic storm was 913 millibars in January, 1993 near Scotland. That storm broke apart the super oil tanker Braer on a rocky shoal of the Shetland Islands, causing a massive oil spill, the Weather Channel notes.
Storm Dennis has a shot at breaking the record for the lowest air pressure in a North Atlantic storm, thus becoming more extreme than the 1993 disaster.
Needless to say, ships are advised to avoid the massive storm if possible, given the hurricane force winds and the gigantic waves associated with it
The storm will stay relatively close to Iceland over the next couple of days, but it will fling gales and towering waves all the way to Great Britain and northern Europe. Wave heights of 50 feet are forecast near the coast of Ireland, and winds of up to 70 mph could hit coastal areas.
That means Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland in particular face the prospect of coastal flooding and extensive beach erosion by Saturday.
So far, the biggest effects from the storm, at least on land, are likely in Iceland. TheIceland Met Office has issued its highest level weather warning for southwestern Iceland today, which is expecting hurricane like conditions, with winds of 75 mph gusting to 125 mph. Blizzard conditions are forecast amid those powerful winds, and people there are urged to stay home during the storm.
However, before the storm hits, residents are told to secure as many things as possible from the wind. Construction sites were also told to pin everything they can down. Coastal flooding and damage is also likely in Iceland from this beast.
Conditions aren't expected to be quite as dramatic in Iceland's capital city of Reykjavik, but even there, conditions are likely to be dangerous today, with possible hurricane force gusts.
Icelandair is already offering to rebook passengers as flights are likely to be canceled due to "Dennis the Menace."
In both this storm, and the massive blizzard that hit Newfoundand back in January, an ingredient that helped form these two giant storms passed right over New England before causing havoc. But you'd never know it.
In January, a relatively weak storm dumped a few inches of snow on Vermont, then moved on to become the massive Newfoundland blizzard. On Tuesday and Thursday, two weak storms blew past New England, which are helping energize Dennis into the monster it is.
We should be glad these storms didn't blow up anywhere near us, huh?
Warm temperatures this January in Vermont encouraged mixed precipitation
over snow for most of the month. Here, ice accumulates on a bush
with berries on January 12 in St. Albans
Well, that wasn't so bad. At least if you don't like bitter winter cold.
January, normally the coldest month of the winter, was quite warm, at least relatively speaking here in Vermont. Very many other places around the world were unusually toasty in January, too. I'll get into that in a minute.
In Burlington, Vermont, January's average temperature came to 26.1 degrees which was a substantial 7.4 degrees warmer than normal.
Even with that amount of warmth, Burlington didn't quite make it into the Top 10 list of warmest Januaries.
The 10th warmest was 26.4 degrees in 1950. The very warmest was 31.2 degrees in 1906.
This January, the coldest it ever got in Burlington was minus 4, which is nothing, considering most daily record lows in Burlington are in the minus 20s.
Elsewhere in Vermont, both Montpelier and St. Johnsbury were 5.9 degrees warmer than average during January. Morrisville was 6.5 degrees warmer than average, Springfield was 6.8 degrees on the toasty side.
The January warmth in Burlington was part of a nationwide toasty opening to the year. Arctic air stayed bottled up in northern Canada and Alaska for almost the entire month, and warmish Pacific air kept flooding the contiguous United States coast to coast.
Dozens of cities across the nation had one of their top 10 warmest Januaries. A few places in the southern Plains and Tennessee Valley, and maybe a couple in the Pacific Northwest set all-time records for warmest January.
There are already signs of spring. Trees in the far Southeast are starting to leaf out two or three weeks ahead of schedule. Daffodils have been blooming in Atlanta much of this month.
Much of Europe was incredibly toasty in January as well, arguably more so than in the United States. Moscow, Russia had its first January on record in which the average temperature was marginally above freezing. Every day in Oslo, Norway got above freezing. It reportedly did not snow all month in Oslo and in Helsinki, Finland.
Hamburg, Germany also is reporting its warmest January on record. In Amsterdam, flowers than normally start to bloom in early April are blossoming now.
The only really cold spot I could find in the world in January was Alaska. Even there, despite the consistent cold, it wasn't as extreme as you'd think. The "warmest" temperature for the month in Fairbanks was 4 degrees, which is the lowest "highest" temperature for January. Still, January in Fairbanks was only the 17th coldest on record, says climatologist and Alaska expert Brian Brettschneider.
It will be interesting to see how January ranks globally for temperatures compared to the past. I think it has a real shot of being the warmest on record, globally.
Back here in Vermont, precipitation wasn't as extreme as the temperatures.
It was also a sort of wet January in the Champlain Valley but a little on the dry side elsewhere in Vermont. . Burlington had 2.61 inches of rain and melted snow and ice, which is about a half inch above normal for the month.
Places like Morrisville and St. Johnsbury were slightly on the dry side.
As always, we can't tell from this vantage point how February will shake out. This morning, the first day of February, it felt like the winter had already advanced a bit toward spring. Outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont, we had a dusting of sugar snow overnight. It was very mild for an early February dawn - upper 20s - and the air had an aroma that I strongly associate with early March.
Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal at least through the entire first week of February, and there's a good chance the relatively mild weather could extend beyond that.
The western and central United States had one of their coldest Octobers on record this year.
That was a big anomaly: Pretty much all of the rest of the world was unusually warm, enough to make October, 2019, the second warmest on record for Earth as a whole. Which goes to prove, if it's cold in your backyard, that doesn't mean climate change is canceled.
"Record warm October temperatures were mainly present across parts of the North and Western Pacific Ocean and northeastern Canada, as well as scattered across parts of the South Atlantic Ocean, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, the Indian Ocean and South America."
Additionally, Arctic sea ice extent was the lowest on record for October. Antarctic sea ice extent was also below normal.
Some scientists are tying the unusually cold weather in the central and western United States in October, and the record chill in the eastern two thirds of the United States so far in November to that lack of sea ice.
When the jet stream is wavier than usual - meaning bigger northward bulges toward the north and deeper dips southward, the weather gets more extreme. A big dip in the jet stream has repeatedly set up over central North America, causing the cold waves in the United States.
Some research suggests that a lack of Arctic sea ice can make the jet stream wavier, and make it stick in more persistent patterns. This could be one major contributing factor making muh of the United States cold while most of the rest of the world bakes.
I would add that this research still isn't conclusive. Plus, with or without climate change, there is still going to be variability in weather and climate month to month and in different locations. Climate change does not cancel out other factors that can influence the weather in your back yard, as I've already noted.
On top of all this, the year 2019 so far is the second warmest on record for the Globe. Highlighting the persistence of weather patterns this year, it looks like parts of the central United States will be an outlier. The whole year has been generally chilly in that part of the world.
Usually and traditionally, when global temperatures are near record highs, there's an El Nino pattern going on, which is a warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean off South America. El Ninos tend to make the world a little hotter than it otherwise would be. But there's no El Nino going on now, which makes the October heat pretty impressive.
November, as we well know, has been brutally cold around here in Vermont. Still, I bet on a global basis, the current month will be another very warm one.
Bad road conditions in Burlington, Vermont last winter. Expect more
of the same as winter's early arrival keeps punishing us.
I'm more than a little jealous of people in north central and parts of the Northeast Kingdom.
Last evening, as those well-predicted snow squalls lumbered through, there were lightning strikes up in that area.
Thundersnow! I haven't seen that in a few years, so I missed out. Where I'm at in St. Albans, there were some snow showers, but nothing spectacular. So congratulations to those who got thundersnow. You get theJim Cantore thundersnow excitement award.
Now, as expected, its ridiculously cold out there. Most of us were in the single numbers to low teens at dawn broke this morning. A couple subzero readings showed up. As of 6 a.m., it was minus 2 at Gallup Mills, Vermont in the Northeast Kingdom and early this morning it was a remarkable 8 below at the tradtional cold spot of Saranac Lake, New York.
We will have record cold high temperatures today, as temperatures only peak between 15 and 22 degrees. It should be in the low to mid 40s this time of year. More record low temperatures are due tonight, with lows regional wide from about minus 5 to plus 10.
Think this winter misery for so early in the season is over after that? Think again. I hope you like freezing rain and ice, because that seems like it's coming our way Monday into Tuesday.
Now, this won't be the type of 1998 ice storm that brings down all the trees and powerlines. Not by a long shot. There will only be a light accumulation of ice. Enough to make the roads, sidewalks and such a slick nightmare.
There's still a lot of question marks as to how much ice will come, exactly when it will come and how much sleet or snow might mix in. On Monday afternoon, temperatures in many areas will probably sneak a couple degrees above freezing.
But it's been so cold that the ground is frigid, so rain will freeze when it hits. This is normally a problem later in the winter, not in November. But this is a bizarre month. Has been from Day 1.
The Monday evening commute and Tuesday morning trip to work will both be tricky. Again, there won't be a lot of precipitation, but it will be the wrong kind. At this point, it looks like the mix will change to snow Tuesday morning, but there won't be a huge accumulation.
This icy start to the week will come from an offshore nor'easter. It will be pretty far out to sea, which explains why the precipitation won't be especially heavy in Vermont. But the weather pattern will pull moisture inland from the storm, which means we will get some icy ick coming from the sky.
This same nor'easter will cause gusty winds, coastal flooding and a lot of beach erosion in the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic states.
The next storm comes Friday. It's too soon to give you details. Early hints are it will be a rain to snow situation, but there's plenty of time yet to figure that one out.
Beautiful satellite photo from Friday afternoon showing streaks
of clouds, many of them snow showers as cold air
blasted into New England.
So, that was a quick plunge into winter wasn't it?
Around the Champlain Valley of Vermont, Friday morning was basically a complete societal breakdown, as we seem to get every year during the first snowy morning commute of the winter season.
Yes, it was icy and we all had to drive slowly. But, as always, there were a few people panicking and a few people who thought driving on bald tires on ice at 100 mph was a good idea. So the rest of us sat, like forever, in the resulting traffic jams. Most of us were late to work.
We got through that, only to face more winter coming up. Nastier than Friday, for sure. I'll get to that in a minute.
Yesterday truly was a harsh, sudden introduction to winter. Considering that Burlington's high temperature Friday was only 30 degrees, tying a record for the lowest high for the date. The 2.6 inches of snow in Burlington was also a record for the date, just squeaking by the 2.5 inches on November 8, 1968.
Check out the satellite photo in this post (Click on it to make it bigger and easier to see). Most of those streaks of clouds are snow showers produced by the cold air blasting into New England Friday afternoon. If you look closely, you see clear skies in the immediate western shore of Lake Champlain near Plattsburgh.
Winds from the west flow downward off the slopes of the Adirondacks. Sinking air dries out, causing the little patch of clear skies. If you look even more closely, you can see an enhanced streak of clouds from about Burlington southeastward into southern Chittenden and northern Addison counties. That's a lake effect snow band off of Lake Champlain.
You can also see larger patches of clouds near and north of the Quebec border, which were heavier snow squalls.
It was cold this morning, too, with most of us down in the teens. It will still be much colder than normal this afternoon. It'll only get into the 30s, so bundle up.
On Sunday we get a brief January November thaw, as it will get into the 40s ahead of the next Arctic front that we've been advertising for days.
It's also still looking like a storm will get going along this front just after it pushes through Vermont. There's nothing definite with this yet, but there is quite a high chance of a pretty big snowstorm, especially for November.
I'm purposely being vague on expected snow accumulations Monday, Monday night and Tuesday because a lot can change in the forecast between now and then. I'm only mentioning it so you can get your snow shovels, snow blowers, skis are whatever else you need ready for the potential.
Nobody has locked in what the potential accumulation will be, but the general consensus is much of Vermont, including the valleys could easily wind up with six or more inches of snow. This will be followed by one of the sharpest November cold waves on record for the eastern half of the United States, including Vermont.
All this is bad news for people still trying to recover from last week's destructive storm in Vermont. A lot of roads were badly damaged or washed out entirely, and it is taking a long time to put them all back together. I know there are still local roads closed or partially so because of damage. Like Dugway Road in Richmond, for instance, or the southbound off ramp at Interstate 89 Exit 18 in Georgia.
This bad weather will just make the job harder, and make it take longer.
It's not like everybody's cold. Around normally frigid Anchorage, Alaska, it's been such a warm late autumn that a few trees and bushes are trying to bud like they do in the spring. And already hot Miami suffered through its hottest September, October and first week of November on record.
Amarillo, Texas got its first snowfall of the season yesterday, before
we in Vermont have gotten anything substantial
So far this week, I've talked about, among other things, wildfires in California and the prospects for snow, or lack thereof in the near future here in Vermont.
Today, the news is still full of wildfires and snow.
I'll start with the less disastrous stuff first. Texas and Oklahoma have managed to get a bunch of snow before we here in Vermont have gotten any. Yes, it's snowed on the peaks of the Green Mountains, but most of us Vermonters have not seen anything yet.
Boy, the Texas Panhandle sure did, though. Amarillo, Texas picked up 2.6 inches of snow. It occasionally fell heavily, with thunder and lightning, winds gusting past 40 mph and occasional near whiteout conditions. A town in far western Oklahoma reportedly picked up nine inches.
Snow in the Texas Panhandles is of course rare this time of year, but not unheard of. As CNN reports,Amarillo once got measureable snow as early as September 29, 1984. The earliest one inch or greater snow there was on October 15, 1970.
Amarillo sits at about 3,600 feet in elevation. So somewhat like mile-high Denver, Colorado, it is often hot and dry, but under certain conditions the relatively high elevation can bring enough cold for seemingly out of season snows.
CALIFORNIA FIRES
People fleeing through fire and live ashes during wildfires
in northern California on Thursday.
The big news is how things are going from bad to worse in California. A fast-spreading blaze broke out in the hills above the California wine country, north of San Francisco late Wednesday or early Thursday.
That fire has destroyed an as yet undetermined number of homes. KQED says CalFire is estimating 49 structures lost so far. About 2,000 people have been evacuated.
Winds have temporarily died down in northern California, but the worst is yet to come. Over the weekend, extremely strong winds and low humidity will make for a critical fire risk. Winds could gust to over 45 mph in the valleys and 75 mph in the mountains. This is certainly a recipe for disaster. The conditions will be similar to 2017, when a wildfire chewed through a large section of Santa Rosa, California.
Pacific Gas & Electric, which cut power to hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses to help prevent fires from falling power lines, plans to do so again on a larger scale this weekend. The thought is if the wind breaks power lines, they won't cause fires because no electricity will be flowing.
In southern California, another fire, called the Tick Fire, is burning through canyons north of Los Angeles. It kept spreading early this morning amid gusty winds and jumped the 14 Freeway, prompting more evacuations. Several buildings have burned and the fire is far from contained.
The chances of high winds this weekend are slightly less in southern California than in northern parts of the state, but the risk is still real. It's turning out to be another ugly fire season in California.
Once again, and I'm sounding like a broken record, the world had a wicked hot month in September.
The latest word came out from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information this past week, and they said this September tied with 2015 as the hottest global September since good records got going somewhere in the late 1800s.
For those keeping score, all of the top 10 hottest Septembers have happened since 2005, and each of the last five Septembers were among the five hottest.
This, of course, is just another little addition to the mountain of evidence that overall, the world's climate is warming.
The year 2019 so far has been the second warmest on record. Only 2016 was toastier.
The warm trend has, of course been going on for decades now. If you're under the age of 34, you have never seen a global month that was cooler than average.
As always Arctic sea ice reached its minimum summer extent in September. It was tied with 2007 and 2016 as the second lowest season minimum on record. Of course these records only go back 41 years, but still.
You might recall that we here in Vermont didn't have a particularly warm September this year, but many places in the world obviously did.
The places that were warmest, relative to average, according to NOAA, were the northern and westernPacific Ocean, the south-central United States, northern Canada, much of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, the Middle East, northern China and a big chunk of Africa.
The Wheat Ridge, Colorado police department posted this photo
of traffic nightmares in Colorado Thursday.
As we continue to enjoy a fabulous October in Vermont, imagine being slapped in the face with this dire set of warnings this time of year:
"Heavy snow is expected to continue today. For this entire event, one to three feet of snow is expected. 40 to 60 mph winds will occur today into Saturday, which will result in whiteout conditions and large, impassable drifts. Several days of impossible travel. Disruptions to travel will last through at least the weekend. Localized power outages Tree and structural damage from heavy snow loads...."
Such is life currently in central North Dakota, where an unprecedented early season blizzard has taken hold. The warning above came from the National Weather Service in Grand Forks, North Dakota.
That forecast office said they were pretty confident up to three feet of snow would fall, especially in areas around Devils Lake, in north-central North Dakota. There's never been anything known like this in October there, even for a place that's known for its harsh winter weather.
In fact, there's a chance some North Dakota towns, and some right across the border in Canada, will have their largest snowstorm on record, for any time of year.
This will really screw farmers in this region, as not all crops were in by the time this hit, and livestock hadn't been sheltered for the winter year. Plus, it's not as if farmers these days have it easy to begin with.
To make matters worse, the snow won't really melt very fast. Temperatures in parts of North Dakota are forecast to stay under 40 degrees at least through next Thursday.
There have been an odd series of severe October snowstorms in the Dakotas lately. Just last year, right around this time in October, areas just west of Grand Forks, North Dakota had up to 17 inches of snow, causing lots of farm losses. (So they're going through this for the second year in a row.)
A devastating blizzard hit western South Dakota in early October, 2013, dumping more than four feet of snow in some areas.
Now, before some of you say this proves global warming doesn't exist, remember that it's warmer than normal in most parts of the world currently.
I'm also NOT saying climate change influenced this particular storm, or the other recent autumn snowstorms in the northern plains, but: In general, with a warming climate, storms can work with more moisture than they used to, which means they can dump more precipitation than they used to.
If it's cold enough, that could mean more snow than might have fallen in the past. This is all conjecture in this instance, but worth noting.
CALIFORNIA FIRE/BLACKOUT
As expected, wildfires broke out in California amid, hot, dry windy conditions. One fire early this morning jumped over and closed two major freeways near Los Angeles. Several homes were reported burning in Grenada Hills, as news about this fire was breaking early this morning.
Another fire yesterday blasted through a mobile home park and destroyed dozens of homes.
The precautionary power blackouts by PG&E in California this week could cost businesses and homeownerup to $1 billion, as the Weather Channel reports. PG&E shut off the electricity so that fires wouldn't start if high winds blew down power lines. Big fires, including the one that leveled Paradise, California and killed more than 80 people, were caused by falling and arcing power lines.
Giant Hurricane Lorenzo in the central Atlantic
Ocean this morning.
Time to update one of those weekend when the weather across the nation and parts of the world have once again kind of gone off the rails.
There's a couple videos at the bottom of this post.
So let's get going:
WILD HURRICANE LORENZO
Yesterday,I joked a littleabout Hurricane Lorenzo, in relation to ex-tropical storm Karen. But Hurricane Lorenzo really wowed the weather world last night.
Lorenzo is way out over the central Atlantic, and is no threat to land with the very notable exception of the Azores, which are really under the gun from this storm.
At the end of the week, Lorenzo was a high-end category 4 hurricane, and it was arguably the furthest east in the Atlantic Ocean for such a strong storm. Water temperatures are usually cooler in the eastern half of the Atlantic Ocean than in the western half, at least in the northern hemisphere.
That means those eastern hurricanes tend not to get as strong as those more to the west, since hurricanes crave the warmest water possible to thrive.
Last night, Lorenzo pulled a fast one on everybody. It was expected to slowly weaken as it moved northward over the open water. And it was weakening Friday night and the first half of Saturday.
Lare Saturday night, though, Lorenzo blew up into a category 5 monster with 160 mph sustained winds. Luckily it wasn't near land. This is easily the strongest hurricane on record in the eastern half of the Atlantic. Also the furthest north we've seen a category 5 hurricane.
Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) posted this map. The dot in blue
is where Category 5 Hurricane Lorenzo was. The red dots
are where all other Category 5 hurricanes developed. You
can see ho far east Lorenzo is
As Dennis Mersereau notes in Forbes, and citing meteorologist Eric Blake, the previous record for the furthest east Category 5 was Hurricane Hugo in 1989, which was a good 600 miles west of Lorenzo's position. (Mersereau is @wxdam on Twitter.)
A number of weather experts I've seen on line say this could easily be another sign of climate change. The water in the eastern Atlantic is now warmer than it used to be decades ago, so this region can support more intense storms.
There certainly has been an uptick in unusually strong Atlantic hurricanes in recent years. As Mersereau writes:
"Lorenzo is the second category five hurricane we've seen in the Atlantic Ocean so far this year, and the sixth such storm to form in the Atlantic in the last four years."
As Lorenzo moves north into cooler waters, it will finally weaken and transform into a regular mid-latitude storm. It could bring strong winds and heavy rain to the British Isles toward the end of the week, we'll have to wait and see.
ROCKIES SNOW
A lovely September day in Choteau, Montana Saturday
It usually snows in the northern Rocky Mountains in September, but not like this!
Some areas, especially in the mountains, can expect a good three feet of snow by the time things taper off Monday night or Tuesday.
Since leaves are still on the trees in many areas, the heavy wet snow is causing a lot of damage to forests, street trees and powerlines. Livestock is suffering and crops are being ruined.
According to meteorologist Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman on Twitter), Great Falls, Montana has 9.7 inches of snow Saturday. That's the snowiest September day on record there. It also would have been the snowiest October day in Great Falls. Erman said you'd have to go to November 8, 2012 to find a snowier day in Great Falls.
Over in Spokane, Washington, they had their first September snowfall since 1926. And it was quite a bit considering the season - 1.9 inches.
Cut Bank, Montana has been snowy, with temperatures in the upper 20s and wind chills in the lower teens since Saturday morning. That would be rather unpleasant by January standards here in Vermont.
CALIFORNIA SUPERCELL
A relatively rare supercell thunderstorm developed about midway between San Francisco and Sacramento, California Saturday evening. It produced a possible tornado near Davis, and dumped several inches of hail on one area, including a stretch of major highway.
There was also a smattering of severe storms in the mid-Atlantic states, and in and around Missouri yesterday. One especially strong storm hit aChristian music festival in PennsylvaniaSaturday, blowing tents around and injuring six people.
RECORD HEAT
Intense heat continued in the Southeast Saturday, with many more records being set. This state of affairs will continue into the middle of the week. I expect several cities in the East and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to set all-time records for the month of October.
Several cities in the Southeast and Deep South are having their hottest September on record.
VERMONT IMPACTS
The Green Mountain State will mostly miss the wild weather over the next couple of days. But things will still be interesting. And very changeable.
Yesterday actually felt humid in Vermont ahead of a cold front. Now that front has gone by, and it's cool and sunny. It's going to be a gorgous Sunday for leaf peepers (though most places aren't at peak yet.) Look out tonight, as there will be scattered frost around, especially away from Lake Champlain.
After another nice day Monday, a warm front will come in with some rains for Tuesday. If skies clear enough briefly before a cold front approaches, highs in some parts of Vermont could top 80 degrees
It appears this cold front will give us a good slug of rain especially Wednesday.
Then it will cool down dramatically. It won't be anything too out of the ordinary for October, but it will come as a shock because it's been rather mild lately. By the end of the week and next weekend, highs will only be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A hard freeze is beginning to look like a fairly good bet next weekend. It could even snow on the mountain peaks.
Yeah, I just said the "s" word.
Some videos:
Possible tornado in Davis, California Saturday:
Incredible amounts of hail on a highway near Davis, California Saturday after a tornado-warned
supercell thunderstorm went by:
And a bit of time spent outdoors in Montana Saturday:
Tornado damage cleanup continues in Windham, Vermont, as
seen in this photo from WCAX-TV
Vermont is hardly tornado alley.
We average just one tornado per year, and most of those tornadoes over the years have been quite weak.
In recent years, though, Vermont has had a sort of tornado drought.
There hadn't been one since 2012 in the Green Mountain State, even as the rest of New England and the Northeast have had something of an uptick in tornado activity over the past few years.
Turns out, the Vermont tornado drought, or whatever you want to call it, ended Wednesday.
By the standards of, say, Oklahoma, this one was weak. But it was relatively strong by Vermont standards. Tornadoes are ranked in a zero to 5 scale, with 5 being the strongest. This one was an EF-1, almost an EF-2, with winds of betweeen 105 and 110 mph.
The twister damaged the roofs and siding of several homes and sheared off or toppled dozens of trees. Outdoor furniture and other debris was tossed hundreds of yards
The tornado was about 350 yards wide and had a path that was 0.75 miles long. Again, not huge, but fairly impressive for Vermont. Nobody was injured by this tornado, so that's good.
WCAX-TV reportsthat at one house, the tornado blew out windows, damaged the roof and tossed down a bunch of trees while a terrified family huddled in the home.
Windham is in a pretty mountainous area, just east of some of southern Vermont's largest ski areas. It's proof that mountains and hills don't necessarily protect you from tornadoes.
The tornado seems to have been associated with a supercell that got going well northwest of Albany, New York. The storm also produced confirmed EF-1 tornadotouchdowns in Johnstown and Saratoga Springs, New York, NWS New York says.
A distant thunderstorm looms over a still, muggy Malletts Bay, Colchester, Vermont Wednesday to close out the the third hottest July o record.
July ended with a bang - literally - across parts of Vermont as another round of thunderstorms ushered out a near-record hot month.
Wednesday's storms weren't as extensive or destructive as those on Tuesday. Still, one strong storm cut power and flooded streets across St. Albans, Vermont. Trees and power lines went down in Bridport.
The storms ushered in a welcome cold front. It's much nicer - and cooler - as we open up August today. but it remains to be seen whether August will be another hot one or not.
In Burlington, Vermont, the mean temperature for July was 74.9 degrees, which was 4.3 degrees hotter than normal. It was also the third hottest July on record, with data going back to the 1880s.
Temperatures in Burlington reached 90 or more on seven days. We normally get about five days per year with 90 degree temperatures, so we're already ahead of the game heading into August. Only two days in July failed to make it to 80 degrees. We usually get many more cool days than that.
The only hotter Julys in the data base are 76.0 degrees just last year and 75.3 degrees in 1921. Interesting, four of the top ten hottest Julys in Burlington have happened since the year 2000.
A thunderstorm approaches Georgia, Vermont Wednesday afternoon, signalling the arrival of cooler air. July was the third hottest on record.
It was a hotter than normal month throughout the rest of Vermont and New England, too. Boston, Massachusetts and Hartford, Connecticut both clocked in with their hottest month on record this year. Not just hottest July, but hottest month.
Also, the only two months in Boston that had a mean low temperature of 70 degrees or higher were August, 2018, yes, last year and July, 2019. Nights are getting warmer, it seems.
For the most part, July was dry up here in Vermont, as thunderstorms were few and far between. But they had some gusto where they did hit. Montpelier was the exception to the dry July. They had 5.62 inches of rain, which is 1.5 inches above normal. Half of that total came in just the last four days of the month.
If you're sick of muggy, hot air, I do have a bit of good news. There's no real sign of another significant spell of sticky weather for at least a week or more.
People cool off in a lake near Wasila, Alaska during this record breaking heat wave. Photo by Mark Thiessen/AP
If you like cool summer weather, Anchorage, Alaska is your kind of place.
Normal highs there this time of year are in the mid-60s and lows generally get to the low 50s.
Except this week. Parts of Alaska are having what might turn out to be an unprecedented heat wave, joining a long list of other places to have previously unheard of type heat waves.
To break an all time record by five degrees is really something. Heat waves - at least some of them - have gotten more extreme in recent years, and this is another example. It's rare to break an all time record high, and much more rare to break it by such a big margin. And just last month parts of Europe broke record highs by similarly odd, large margins.
For perspective, it was hotter in Anchorage on the Fourth of July than it was in Little Rock, Arkansas and Key West, Florida, though it was more humid in Arkansas and Florida than in Alaska.
It's going to stay hot in much of Alaska for the next week or so, and it's already been off the charts for a week.
The seven-day period ending on Wednesday in Anchorage was the hottest such period on record, with a 67.4 degree average temperature. And that was before the real heat set in yesterday for a what will probably be a week long stay.
Other Alaskan places are hot, too. King Salmon and Kenai, Alaska broke or tied all time high temperature records at 88 degrees. Kodiak, Alaska just had its hottest July day on record, with a reading of 83 degrees. Northway, Alaska hit an all-time high of 92 degrees on June 30.
Last month was the warmest June on record in Anchorage,with a mean temperature of 60.5 degrees. That beat the old record set in 2015 by a whole degree. And talk about the longevity of the southern Alaska warmth! Each of the past 16 months have been warmer than average.
June in Anchorage was also the driest on record, with just 0.06 inches of rain. For perspective, a one-hour rainfall of that magnitude would barely make the pavement wet.
As can imagine, the odd warmth and dryness has been causing lots of problems. Overall, the current young wildfire season in Alaska is only slightly worse than average, but the fires could really get out of hand with the upcoming week of hot, dry weather and lightning strikes.
Plus, the Anchorage area is usually on the moist side, but not this year. So wildfires and the resulting air pollution is hanging around that city much more than usual.
The hot water is screwing up fisheries. Also, lots of dead seals are appearing on Alaska's northern and western shores. It's a mess.
The Alaska heat has so far only made occasional forays into central and northern Alaska. June in Utqiagvik, formerly Barrow on the northern tip of Alaska was only a modest 1.4 degrees warmer than normal, but did feature one day that hit 73 degrees, the warmest June reading on record there.
Fairbanks, in central Alaska, definitely had above normal temperatures in June, but it didn't break records. Temperatures in Fairbanks are expected to reach the 80s over the next week to ten days, which is about 10 degrees hotter than normal for this time of year.
The Alaska heat wave was created by a very unusually strong and far north ridge of high pressure parked over the state. It's a similar setup to what caused the record European heat wave last month.
Climate scientists keep tellling us these extreme heat waves are boosted by climate change. Perhaps these heat waves would have occured without climate change, but are being made more intense by all the CO2 we're pumping into the air.
Referencing the Europe heat wave, Columbia University climatologist James Hansen told CBS:"For all practical purposes, the heat wave is caused by human-made global warming."
I suspect the Alaska heat wave has climate change fingerprints all over it, too.
Skeptics point out, correctly, that the jet stream is wavy. Immediately to the east of the European and Alaskan heat ridges were dips in the jet stream. Under these dips, temperatures were or are cooler than normal.
That's true. But the chilly weather in these jet stream dips wasn't record-breaking, or nearly as far from normal as the temperatures in the core of the heat waves.
Here in Vermont, we will very briefly get into this "dip" in the jet stream on Sunday, when high temperatures will "only" reach the mid and upper 70s. That's just few degrees cooler than normal, and nothing at all unusual for July.
A gorgeous summer day last year in Burlington, Vermont. This year's Fourth of July weather - today - will be about the same.
"Hot as the Fourth of July," is a timeworn cliche, but hey, cliches are often true, right?
Such as the case today, the Fourth of July 2019, as we in Vermont are setting up for a hot one. Great beach weather. Great barbecue weather. Great fireworks watching weather. What's not to love?
Well, it will be a bit too hot for some people today. (I've become a hot weather wimp in my old age, for instance.)
Everybody in Vermont, except those on the tippy tops of the tallest mountains will see high temperatures in the 80s today. Warmer valleys (I see you, Champlain and lower Connecticut valleys!) will have a great shot of getting to 90 degrees or even a little above that this afternoon. Thank goodness humidity levels will only be moderate. Not super dry, mind you, but not awful, either.
Plus the sun will be out most if not all of the day. Bottom line: The Fourth of July this year is a classic in the weather department.
The time around the Fourth of July has had its extreme weather. Two of Vermont's most historic, biggest heat waves happened on and around July 4.
In 1911, Vermont had it's hottest day on record on July 4, reaching 105 degrees at Vernon, in the southeastern corner of the state. Neighboring New Hampshire also had its hottest day on record on July 4, 1911, reaching 106 degrees.
Burlington, Vermont, was relatively "chilly" on July 4, 1911, only reaching a high of 98 degrees (ugh!) But that was down from 100 degrees the day before.
The 1911 heat wave was long, with a break in the middle of it. According to the Vermont Weather Book, Burlington's daily high temperature from July 1 to 12 was as follows: 86. 94, 100, 98, 98, 91, 75, 88, 95, 96, 96, and finally on July 12, a cooling trend started when the high only reached 86 degrees.
It's possible the 1911 heat wave was New England's worst weather disaster. Someestimates are that 2,000 New Englandersdied in those pre-air conditioning days.
The other historic July 4 heat wave happened just last year, in 2018. On July 4 last year, Burlington reached 95 degrees on the Fourth of July, so the record for the date from 1911 still stands.
But the heat wave that lasted from June 30 through July 5 last year was among the most extreme on record. The low temperature in Burlington on July 2 was 80 degrees, the hottest "low" temperature on record. Burlington also suffered through six consecutive days with highs of 93 degrees or more.
Not to be morbid again, but the July, 2018 heat wave was Vermont's worst weather disaster since the Hurricane Irene floods of 2011. The heat caused little physical damage but caused at least six deaths in the Green Mountain State. (The link has four deaths, but two more fatalities were confirmed later.)
The 2018 Fourth of July heat wave was part of what was to become the hottest summer on record in Burlington.
Sometimes, Mother Nature creates her own fireworks display on the Fourth of July weekend. We've had some doozies in Vermont.
Some examples:In 1999, a derecho formed in North Dakota on July 4, and sped rapidly over a long distance through Minnesota, upper Michigan, Ontario, Quebec and on into northern Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine in the pre-dawn hours of July 5.
The path of a long lasting derecho on the Fourth of July weekend, 1999. It caused one death in the Northeast Kingdom. No storms anylike this in the forecast today!
Winds in that 1999 Derecho reached 90 mph Colbrook, New Hampshire. In Vermont's Northeast Kingdom, one person diedand others were injured as the derecho winds slammed through crowded camp grounds.
The first round headed southeastward across eastern Vermont in the afternoon, causing lots of tree damage. A second round moved southeastward through the Champlain Valley, with winds gusting to 70 mph in Colchester and 63 mph in South Burlington.
There was, predictably a lot of wind damage, mostly to trees. There was also extensive street flooding in Burlington, causing damage to several buildings. (See the video I took of this storm in Burlington. The rain amid the wind was so heavy that visibility was almost zero.)
On this Fourth of July, 2019, there is a slightest chance of an isolated shower or storm, but don't hold your breath. The air is too stable to support much more than some cumulus clouds.
Here's a video of the July, 2012 wildness in Burlington. I know it looks like I was in a weird spot, but I was trying to shoot the video from a protected area behind buildings and tanks. Love the close lightning strike about two minutes in:
Green areas are parts of the nation that were wetter than normal in May. The darker the green the greater departure from nornal rainfall.
It seems as if every day, floods capture the attention in weather news.
Yesterday, it wasLouisiana and the Oklahoma City metro area that suffered through damaging, dangerous floods. It's just been a continuous drumbeat for it seems like a couple years at least now.
As if to prove that point, NOAA's National Centers for Climate Informationreleased their summary for the month of May, which showed the month was the second wettest on record for the United States.
If you average it out. 4.41 inches of precipitation fell across the nation. Only May, 2015 was wetter and just barely - that month four years ago had 0.03 inches more rain than May, 2019.
The only dry areas of the nation during May, 2019 were in parts of the Southeast, western Washington and along the immediate Canadian border in Idaho, Montana and North Dakota.
Three states - Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri - had their wettest Mays on record. Twelve other states had one of their top 10 wettest Mays. (Here in Vermont it was the 18th wettest May out of the past 125 years, so pretty soggy, but not record breaking.)
Also, the 12 month period ending on May 31 was the wettest such stretch on record. The period ending April 30, 2019 (this year) was the previous wet record holder for a 12-month period. Records go back 125 years.
During that 12 month period, an average of 37.68 inches of precipitation fell across the nation, which is a whopping 7.73 inches above average.
This wetness is consistent with climate change. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor that cooler air. That added water vapor in the toastier air leaves the potential for heavier downpours.
That said, month to month precipitation in the United States is highly variable. With or without climate change, a given month for the nation can be very wet, very dry, or just average.
But the overall trend has for wetter months overall, especially in the eastern half of the United States.
It's hard to say whether the rest of the year will be wet, but the first half of June is not proving to be particularly encouraging.
Long range forecasts into the third week of June suggest that larger areas of the United States will be wetter than normal compared to those that will be drier than normal. (For the record, Vermont is forecast to be overall cooler and wetter than normal into the third week of June, despite an expected warm, dry weekend coming up.)
Flash flooding in Tulsa, OK Thursday. Photo via Twitter by Jonathan Torrio
This next part will get confusing, but bear with me. The overall temperature for the nation as a whole was a little cooler than average during May.
This, after I just got done explaining that a warmer atmosphere holds more water, so that might help explain why we had such a wet national month.
Storms are at least in part a clash between warm and cold air. Although final numbers aren't in yet, May, 2019 was almost certainly in the top 10 warmest for the world as a whole. Warmer air feeding into the storms that affected the nation might have increased rainfall somewhat. Some of this warm air came from outside the nation.
And note the heaviest precipitation was in the middle of country. The Southeast was warmer than average in May, and that's where much of the humid air was coming from to feed the precipitation in those Midwest storms.
However, parts of the United States was on the cool side, bucking a worldwide trend in May, because the weather patterns during the month favored cool air flowing into the middle of the nation.
