"Potential" Tropical Storm Is Really Being Hyped

Just one of many potential tracks for Wannabe Isias.  Expect
forecasts to shift around a lot in the coming days.

If I were to believe some media and social media posts, I'd thing a Category 999 hurricane was about to blow Florida out of existence.

Before we got on with this post, some facts to clear up.

I hope you understand that I know that hurricanes only go up to Category 5; there's no such thing a "Category 999."

Category 5 is the worst hurricane you can get.  There is currently no Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.   In fact, there are no hurricanes anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

It's possible a tropical system of some sort could affect Florida over the weekend, but we don't know for sure if that will happen, and if it does, how big a deal it would be.

So here's the non-hype version, as best as I understand it.  If you want more information beyone what I'm about to describe, check out what real live scientists are saying over at the National Hurricane Center. 

The hype you're hearing is prompted by something called "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine." As of this morning, it was causing really crappy weather way out there in the Lesser Antilles, and will probably do the same to Haiti and the Dominican Republic tomorrow.

They haven't given "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine" a name yet because it hasn't developed a well defined circulation.  It's just a mass of gusty thunderstorms that overall have some spin, but haven't congealed into a storm yet. But as of early this morning, it was getting close to that level.

When it does (or even if) it gets its act together, it will be named Isaias.  If you're curious, it's pronounced "ees-ah-EE-ahs."

As you're probably sick of hearing from me by now, forecasting the strength of direction of any tropical system can get tricky.

It's especially so with Wannabe Isaias.  It's a huge clump of thunderstorms, and where a center eventually forms will determine its path and strength.  Right now, even the folks at National Hurricane Center are throwing up their hands a bit with this one.

But they're giving it a try, because that's what they do.

If Wannabe Isaias gets it act together today, it might get punched down to a wannabe again if it hits the Dominican Republic directly.  The mountains there will screw it up.

If Wannabe Isaias detours around that mountainous island, it could keep getting stronger.

This is where the Florida hype comes in. Wannabe Isaias  could  cause trouble in places like Puerto Rico, the Virgin Island, maybe Cuba or the Bahamas.

Forecasts tracks as of this morning take this thing toward Florida, but remember what I just said: Where the center of Wannabe Isaias eventually establishes itself will determine a lot about its future path.

It could pass south of Florida and go into the Gulf of Mexico.  Maybe it will hit Florida. Or it'll curve north and then east and miss the United States entirely.  Note to Donald Trump: We don't know if Wannabe Isaias will affect Alabama. 

We just don't know any of this for certain yet.  Don't believe anyone who tells you they know for sure where this is going. They don't. At least not yet.  And don't even get me started with questions on whether Wannabe Isaias will affect Vermont and if it does, how so?  Use your Magic 8 ball for that one.

As mentioned above, we also don't know what kind of strength or lack thereof Wannabe Isaias will have.

So here's what you SHOULD do regarding Wannabe Isaias:

1. Continue monitoring the storm, especially if you live in or have interests in the Virgin Islands, Hait, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and Florida.  No need for any kind of panic, by the way.

2. It's early in the hurricane season.  If you live in hurricane prone areas, or flood prone areas, now is a great time to pop down to Home Depot or Lowe's or whatever to pick up your hurricane preparedness supplies. This is whether or not Wannabe Isaias amounts to anything. Wear your mask  into the stores, please!

3. Have a plan in case Wannabe Isaias or any other tropical storm or hurricane comes along.  If told to evacuate, where would you go?  Make it easy to grab important documents and medications and such if you have to go.  Think about what you would do with pets.  Add in some extra planning because of this Covid pandemic.

4.  If this thing does get close to you and the National Hurricane Center and local emergency managers start barking orders, like prepare or even evacuate, do what they say. It'll make it easier on everyone. Including yourselves.

Do Winter Hype Forecasts Kill The Ski Industry?

Stowe Mountain Resort posted this inviting photograph on Instagram
today. According to an Outside magazine article, ski areas like
Stowe often find themselves battling perceptions that weather
is too severe for skiing, which hurts the bottom line. 

When they tell you the wind chill is terrible, or the roads are glare ice or that you shouldn't travel because it's going to snow, do you cancel your plans?  

Often, that's a good thing to do. You don't want to be reckless.

To many others, this caution is not always a great thing. According to a recent article in Outside, over-hyped winter weather forecasts are damaging the ski industry. The article is worth the full read. 

According to Outside:

"'Negative weather reporting absolutely has an effect on ski area attendance,' says Kelly Pawlak, president of the National Ski Areas Association. It's especially true, she says, for smaller resorts near population centers that rely on the casual, two-or-three times per year skier. 'A negative report on Thursday can scrap a lot of upcoming wekeend ski plans for a resort that relies on day trips.'"

Anything that affects the ski industry here in Vermont is of course important. The Vermont Ski Areas Association said there were nearly 4 million skier days in the Green Mountain State last year, according to VTDigger.  A skier day is one person skiing one full day, which a standard way of counting business in the ski industry.

This winter has been good, so the number of recent visitors to Vermont might have gone up. We'll have to wait until the end of the season for statistics.

The Vermont Ski Areas Association says the industry creates about $900 million in direct spending, $120 million in taxes, reports VTDigger. The business supports 12,000 direct jobs and roughly 22,000 indirecrt jobs here.

Which leads us to the constant tension between reasonable warnings to people who would otherwise be careless with winter weather, and the tendency for many media outlets and weather geeks on social media to overhype winter cold and storms.

Ski enthusiasts tell Outside, and by extension the rest of us, that wind chill alerts are overdone. When you hear a forecast for 20 below wind chills, that doesn't mean it will constantly feel that cold out there. The 20 below "real feel" as some call it, come during peak gusts when the sun isn't out.

During these cold weather events, the wind chill is usually warmer than 20 below, plus the sun makes it feel a little warmer out. Plus, winter clothing is better than ever these days, shielding outdoor sports types from some of the worst weather winter can fling at us.

You've heard the saying: "It's not bad weather, it's bad clothing."  That logic is, if you get too cold and wet outdoors during the winter, it's because you're not wearing the right clothes.

Ski areas are lobbying meteorologists and other weather types about being careful with their winter forecasts and not being too negative.

Says Outside:

"In December, at one of the summits (to) combat negative winter weather reporting, the North American Snowsports Journalist Association organized an event for a dozen broadcast meteorologists at Stratton Mountain Resort (in Vermont).

The three-day event featured technical climate presentations, but also a discussion, led by a North Face employee, on layering, wind proofing, and other snowsports dress techniques. There was plenty of time for skiing and snowshoeing, too. 

The idea, says organizer Adam White, is to make weather journalists more comfortable with winter conditions and to reduce their bias on-air or even Instagram. 'Meteorologists are surprisingly popular on social media,' says White. 'Everyone wants to know about the weather.'"

In my opinion, there's a lot of things going on here. It's always complicated, and you're never going to make everybody happy.

First of all, there is indeed a tendency to overhype things, particularly on social media. Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and other platforms are rife with breathless reports of impending Blizzards of the Century. If you were to believe social media, the Blizzards of the Century come about once every hour.

Wind chill alerts become gloom and doom on social media, telling everyone that if they step outdoors for just one second in these conditions, they will magically turn into an ice cube from which they will never thaw.

The point is eyeballs and clicks. The more hype there is, the more potential clicks and the more money to be made. Social media is certainly not the most ethical place in the world.

On the other hand, Outside magazine caters mostly to people who know what they're doing. An experienced skiing, rider or snowshoe enthusiast, upon learning of a severe wind chill forecast, will just bring along the right gear and they'll be all set and happy.

But there's plenty of stupid people out there, too. You have to hammer home the dangers to people who think nothing of hopping into their cars in a light sweater when it's 30 below for a road trip in a blizzard. Then when they get stuck, they freeze, because they didn't prepare.

Still, the Outside article might prompt me to be a little more nuanced in my reports. Like most weather geeks, I get excited over the drama of storms and weather extremes. I try to keep it in my sneaker, but sometimes my thrill of the weather betrays me.

I can probably try to play to two audiences: One piece of my essays would play to the people who might not be so prepared for the weather, while the other side of me would tell people to go out and play in the extreme weather, if they're smart enough to do it.

God forbid I stop anyone from going out and playing in the snow if they can. Because frankly, the snow and ice that I can see out my window is a total waste unless we find a way to enjoy it.

Is U.S. Having A Cold Winter? Not Really, Despite "Polar Vortex" Hype

Moments like this - heavy snow falling amid subzero termperatures
in St. Albans, Vermont on January 20, might make us think
this winter has been particularly harsh. In the grand scheme
of things locally and nationwide, it hasn't been super bad

Remember all that hype about the "polar vortex" in January? That the United States was having a brutal winter?

In large part, it was hype. It's true that a few cities in the Midwest hit all-time record lows during that brief, sharp Arctic snap in late January.

But the first month of the year as a whole was the 29th warmest January on record or the United States. That's out of 125 years of record.

Which means we didn't exactly skip winter in January, but it was nothing historic, either.

Interestingly, in the rankings, right here in Vermont had the second coldest January, 2019 compared to rankings in all the other states during the month.  Vermont had its 57th chilliest January out of the past 125. That's still pretty close to normal, so it's no great shakes. Only Michigan, which had its 50th coldest January, was worse than Vermont.

No state in January was really uch colder than normal. Most of the west was warm, and California had its 10th warmest January on record.

Four cities in the United States did break or tie their all-time record low temperatures on January 31, writes Bob Henson in this Category 6 blog post. 

Henson cited weather records expert Maximiliano Herrera when he added this factoid to the blog post regarding the all-time record lows in the handful of U.S. cities on January 31:

"We've never gone so deep into January without an all-time cold record being set since global record-keeping began,' says Herrera. In contrast, in the Southern Hemisphere, where it is summer, January, 2019 saw two nations or territories and 47 stations set their all-time heat records."

Which means we shouldn't believe anyone who says global warming isn't happening because it was cold in Illinois in late January.

I think what made January seem harsh in the United States was that it was stormy. The United States as a whole had its 37th wettest January. Again, Vermont was a standout. The Green Mountain State and Rhode Island each had their eight wettest Januaries on record. No other state in the U.S. scored in the top 10 wettest.

Northern Maine was very snowy, Caribou had its snowiest January on record.

So far, February has been particularly chilly in most of the western half of the nation, so that will add an overall chill to the nation's winter as a whole. Places like Montana are particularly brutal. So far, temperatures in much of that state are running more than 25 degrees colder than normal, which is just beyond belief.

The West Coast is very chilly this month as well. Seattle is running 9 degrees colder than normal so far this month. Sacramento, California is nearly five degrees on the cold side.

However, any thought that this is a particularly brutal winter for the United States is hogwash.

Huge Nor'easter And Frigid Arctic Blast Obnoxiously Heated Up Climate Change Debate

Huge expanses of coastal New England ocean water froze over
during last week's record cold spell. The Arctic outbreak did not
prove or disprove climate change, but activists on either side
seized on this big time, facts be damned 

The long Arctic siege that gripped much of the eastern half of the country finally ended Sunday, and the cleanup is well underway from that super powerful nor'easter last week.

Although the Arctic wasteland spell is over, the heat that the cold blast generated in the climate change activist wars show few signs of abating, though.

The brutal stretch of winter weather proved to be a sort of climate Rorschach test of sorts between climate activists on one hand, the climate change denialists and skeptics on the other.

I think the climate change activists did have the intellectual upper hand in this latest battle, but there was still over the top claims on either side.

SILLY DENIALISTS

Surprise, surprise, Donald Trump was the most simplistic of the denialist bunch. We were barely one day into the Arctic siege when he declared global climate change a hoax. Hey, it was cold on the U.S. East Coast, so that's the only indicator of whether the world was hot or cold, right?

Yeah, or something like that. Trump is a real friggin'  climate scientist. (If you didn't notice, my snark font is on.)

Then there was the familiar trope that came roaring back along with the Arctic winds that activists had somehow "rebranded" global warming into climate change, so that they could allegedly blame every kind of weather on fossil fuel emissions.  Hey, now they're saying any weird weather is humans' fault! Silly climate activists! (Ugh.)

For instance, Rex Murphy in Canada's National Post had his sarcasm font on in full blast as he wrote about all those silly little people worried about global warming, er, climate change:

"During the most savage Hyperborean blasts and numbing cold even the little ones busy themselves with exercises to remind themselves of the truth of things. Children in schools hang up posters of the Amazon rainforest, check the temperature in Tanzania, have revivalist reruns of "An Inconvenient Truth" to keep the sense of global peril fresh in their anxious empty little heads."

Cripes, Murphy's prose is as purple as my frostbitten fingers were during the worst of the Arctic blast.

NUANCES, NUANCES, NUANCES

I suppose was a faint glimmer of a point in Murphy's rant about "branding."

Here's why I think that: A number of climate scientists and other activists during the winter siege pointed out that the extreme weather was "consistent" with climate change.

Notice the careful wording. They weren't drawing much of a direct line between the frigid weather pattern and climate change. The climate change crowd was more accurately saying the spell of weather was paradoxically "consistent." with global warming. No proof, but the weird weather pattern might, just might, have had something to do with climate change.

A few activists did flatly say that the cold wave and nor'easter were definitive signs of climate change. Those activists were wrong. A single weather event is proof of nothing. Weather is variable. A world that's overall warmer than it used to be can still have cold weather. It can still have winters. Life goes on, after all.

However, back to that careful working, and the crux of why I said Murphy had a slight point about branding.

The basic science of climate change is simple: Put more carbon dioxide in the air, and more of the sun's heat gets trapped in that atmosphere. So all things being equal, the world warms up.

Then mix in all the nuances of the many ways climate change can affect how things are where you live. And then consider the  million different ways it can affect conditions at all other points of the world. On top of that, add in the complexities that exists with or without global warming. Examples include local effects, natural ocean and air circulation cycles, and factors we might not even know about yet.

Which means you get the simple, if incorrect arguments: "It's cold out where we are, therefore there's no global warming." say the climate denial crowd.

That, versus the scientists: "The weather pattern we are in is consistent with climate change, but it's hard to blame one weather event on climate change. Plus, there are many factors involved that may or not be influenced by climate change, and scientists are still studying these aspects. Melting sea ice in the Arctic might be screwing around with the jet stream and might be bending it in ways that make these Arctic outbreaks in the eastern United States. However, there are winters that aren't so cold because..........."

See the problem? Us humans crave simple explanations for what's going on around us. I know I do. Explanations of how climate change might be affecting us are often not simple at all. We tune out. That's why Donald Trump's tweet got so much attention. It was a simple if wrong sales/con job. He's a great marketer. Simple messages sell.

It's hard to market climate change in ways the public easily understands.

Under climate change, weather extremes will probably continue to get, well, more extreme. You get into the weeds arguing with climate deniers and skeptics on this point, too.

One example is Accuweather Meteorologist Joe Bastardi, among others. Now, I respect Bastardi as a talented meteorologist. He's one smart cookie, and my snark font is definitely OFF when I say that. Where I have a problem with Bastardi is his climate change skepticism. He's not a denialist, but he is very skeptical.   His argument often goes as follows:

Yes, the weather here is exceptionally cold/hot/wet/dry/windy ---- whatever, but it's happened before, so there's nothing going on that's out of the ordinary so there's no human caused climate change. (I'm oversimplifying his argument a bit here.)

And of course, Bastardi is right on one aspect of his argument. There have been cold snaps as bad or worse than the one we just had. There have been nor'easters as bad or worse than the one that socked New England and Atlantic Canada last week. There have been bigger heat waves than the ones that we've had in recent years. All these historic weather events happened without human-induced global warming.

However, Bastardi is missing the most on point of these questions.

Of course these weather patterns have happened before. But are they becoming more frequent than they used to, and if so, why? Are floods getting more frequent and worse in some parts ofthe country than decades ago? Are weather patterns that cause these long lasting cold outbreaks like the one we just had happening more often? again, f so, why? Those are the pertinent questions here.

I'm not sure I have the answer to these questions, but those queries are the ones most worth examining.

Another trope among denialists is to try and discredit all science, as way of trying to convince the public to not believe anything based on scientific fact.

For instance, on Sunday, the climate denial site Watts Up With That mocked NOAA for a winter forecast they put out last fall that said chances were greater than even that the southern and eastern United States would, overall, have a warmer than average winter.

Watts Up With That crowed about the cold weather in the East and parts of the South. Never mind that the winter is less than half over, and, despite the cold spell, these areas could, on the whole, have a milder than average winter. (Notice the January thaw that's now creeping into many of these areas.)

As many, including, to his credit, Bastardi pointed out, it's possible we could have warm weather the rest of the winter, which would make the season a bit on the mild side. We just don't know yet.

NOR'EASTER AS CLIMATE POSTER CHILD

The nor'easter that struck the U.S. and Canada east coasts last weekend strengthened at almost a record pace, and brought near record and even record storm surges to many coastal communities in New England and Canada, especially in Massachusetts.

Waves and coastal flooding batter Scituate, Massachusetts during
last week's epic nor'easter. The storm was huge, and inflated the
arguments over climate change. But it was just one storm, so I'm
counseling that everybody relax. 

The denialists claimed that it was a bitter cold storm, so no global warming. Yeah, it was cold on the western side of the storm, over eastern North America.

But it was super warm on the eastern side of the storm, over the Atlantic Ocean. Nobody lives in the middle of the ocean though, so that warm side of the storm was ignored.

Meanwhile, the climate change activists were a little more careful, but still emphasized that the unusually high tides that flooded Boston and other communtiies were the hallmarks of climate change.

Climate change might have had an influence on all that high water, but it wasn't the principal reason for the flooding. The storm struck when astronomical tides were higher than average, due to the position of the moon.

The worst of the storm also struck just when high tide was scheduled to come in during the early afternoon Thursday. Bad timing, to say the least.

Sea levels have risen due to climate change over the past several decades. Which means climate change did add to the strength and height of the storm tide, It was probably worse than it would have been without climat echange, but it wasn't the main reason for it.

Again, nuance strikes again, and we humans have little patience for that.

This keeps going around and around of course. The always obnoxious Brietbart News, among others, tried to stake the claim that climatologists automatically blamed global warming on the first signs of heat waves last summer, but pooh-poohed the idea that a cold wave on one sliver the globe -namely the eastern U.S., canceled out global warming.

Of course, no reputable climatologists said any such thing.

As long as the denialists have allies in government, sustained by huge campaign contributions by the oil industry and conservative bazillonaires, the science, details and nuances will be as lost in the public discourse as the stuff that floated out to sea when the storm surge hit Scituate, Massachusetts last week.

There will be other exreme weather events. They'll come fast and furiously. (Witness the fatal flash floods, debris flows and mudslides in California on Tuesday)

If you are interested in climate change, and you should be, here's my advice: Don't listen to the shrill public false "debate" when there's a big storm. Seek out the experts, the sober scientists, the politicians that resist hype, the media outlets that don't have much of an agenda, but just want you to know what's really going on.

Doing all these things can be difficult.  But at least you'll know what's really going on. And maybe, just maybe, you'll retain your sanity.

Hurricane Hermine? So Far, Pffft! So Much For The Hype. At Least For Now

Those little patche of thunderstorms near
Cuba and south of the Bahamas was supposed to
be a nasty hurricane or tropical storm, the
hype went. But not so.
That bigger patch of clouds on the right side
of the satellite pic is Tropical Storm Gaston,
which is not a threat to the United States.   

For the past week or more, some of us weather nerds on Twitter and elsewhere on social media have been hyping the idea of a big hurricane hitting Florida by this weekend.

I wasn't one of of the hypsters because I knew long range hurricane forecasts were iffy at best.

So do many meteorologists. The saner heads were saying wait and see, and if it gets to the point where we should be alarmed, we'll let you know.

Meanwhile, just chill.

So, this morning the thing that's headed toward Florida is --- not much at all.

The would-be Hurricane Hermine is just a disorganized patch of thunderstorms heading into the Bahamas. No Category 3 or 4 winds, no massive storm surge, just..... unpleasant weather.

That's not to say we should all just completely relax. The weather disturbance, such as it is, could still cause flooding in the Bahamas and Florida. Thunderstorms around this disturbance did start to increase in size and intensity late this morning, so it might be trying again to form into something, we'll see.

(It does look a bit healthier as of noon than the pic in this post from early this morning.)

Plus, the National Hurricane Center says this disturbance will probably eventually make its way to the Gulf of Mexico, where it still could develop into a tropical storm or even hurricane, since atmospheric conditions might be a little better to allow a tropical storm to get going.

It's something we'll have to watch, but no panic yet.

 I'm also a little disappointed on my Twitter feed this morning that there's an air of disappointment and frustration that this thing, the Non-Hermine, is so lame.

I thought it was good news. A tropical storm or hurricane threat that so far has not materialized. We should all be happy that Miami is not being blown away and drowned.

Us weather geeks love our atmospheric excitement, I'll give you that. But let's not actually hope for a destructive storm.

I hope Non-Hermine continues to choke and fizzle and sputter and die as it heads toward the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Hype On Internet Is Blowing At Catagory Five Now

The two X's on the Natonal Hurricane Center map
show where two tropical disturbances are
that could develop into tropical storms or hurricanes
Despite some hype on the internet, it's
impossible now to determine whether these
will pose any threat to the United States.  

Anybody with a passing interest in the weather, and the Atlantic hurricane season might be forgiven for being horrified and scared.

For the past couple of days, people have been posting pictures of computer forecast models that show, variously, major hurricanes eight to 14 days from now destroying Miami, New Orleans, Houston, North Carolina, New York  and/or New England.

Why all the scares?

They are coming right on schedule. We're entering the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and there indeed some tropical systems out there to watch.

There's three of them at the moment. One is struggling Fiona, which was downgraded to a tropical depression from a tropical storm overnight, and two other disturbances way out over the eastern Atlantic that might develop.

It's impossible to tell whether any of these systems will affect the United States.. Even the sad remnants of Fiona might or might not affect the United States. Plus Fiona could regenerate or stay just a cluster of thunderstorms, who knows? 

There are many computer models that try to hit at where these tropical disturbances will go and whether they will grow into hurricanes.

But data for the computer models is scant. Garbage in, garbage out, which means the models are all over the place as to what will happened to these storms a week or two or more down the road.

So you get the hype. One computer model this weekend had a major hurricane moving up the East Coast a couple weeks from now, then, Poof! The next run of that same computer model that came out 12 hours later had no sign of a hurricane near us.

The computer models, understandably, don't have any idea what these systems will do toward Labor Day weekend. Neither does any human.  So just chill.

You get views and Internet clicks if you show the computer models with major hurricanes along the coast of the United States. If you show a photo of a computer model with no threats, then, sorry, no clicks for you!

The way to handle things this time of year is, yeah, keep track of advisories from the National Hurricane Center and other reputable weather forecasting organizations. If a hurricane does threaten the United States, we'll get three or four days warning of possible impending trouble, and you'll hear about it.

Otherwise, ignore the clickbait.

Big Snows Not The Biggest Threat From Upcoming Stormal

I seriously doubt coastal flooding will be as
bad as in Superstorm Sandy in New Jersey, shown
here, but there is a threat of coastal damage
with this upcoming nor'easter. 

The East Coast is still gearing up for one of those blockbuster nor'easters that tend to get us weather geeks excited, the populace panicked and snow lovers rejoicing, or cursing if the snow misses.

Of course, the forecast is still tricky, and everybody is trying to pin down exactly who gets the most snow, the most wind, the most tidal flooding, that sort of thing.

I think forecasts for the nature of the storm will get a little more precise, accurate and certain later today. That's because the main initial weather disturbance that will cause this storm is coming ashore over the United States West Coast.

That will enable weather instruments and meteorologists to get a more detailed and complete assessment of what's going on in the atmosphere. It's easier to measure such things overhead on land, than it is when things are still over the remote Pacific Ocean.

The forecast for the storm will still end up being imperfect, as they always are for nor'easters, but at least by the end of the day we'll have higher confidence as to what's going on.

Already, winter storm warnings were up this morning for parts of Kentucky and Tennessee due to a smaller, initial storm rolling through ahead of the main action coming in Friday.

A wide area from the Ohio Valley to much of the Appalachians and East Coast are indeed due for a pretty big dump. Some areas in the central Appalachians and parts of the Middle Atlantic states could end up measuring the snow in feet, not inches.

While up to three feet of snow is certainly a big deal, if it materializes, this isn't the only threat from this likely upcoming storm. In fact, the snow isn't even the most serious threat, though it's the aspect of the expected nor'easter that's getting the most attention.

Much more worrisome is the good chance this storm will bring on some serious coastal flooding and coastal erosion. Secondary threats also include damaging icing, the threat of severe weather and possibly tornadoes, flooding, and of course, the snow.  

Forecast maps are still showing a strong nor'easter
on the East Coast Saturday.

Let's break it down:

COASTAL FLOODING

This storm might ultimately be remembered more for its coastal flooding and damage than the snow it will probably dump.

The storm will come along this weekend when the moon is full, which means tides will already be higher than usual.

The barometric pressure in this storm, when it's off the Mid-Atlantic coast, is forecast to be quite low. Such low pressure means the air isn't pressing down on the ocean so much, so the water can expand upward. That would contribute to higher tides, too.

The counterclockwise flow, from the east, will mean strong winds will blow over large expanses of the western Atlantic Ocean and push the water toward the East Coast, further increasing tides.

Add to that the fact that sea levels have risen a bit due to global warming, so the starting point from which the ocean water will rise and potentially cause flooding is that much higher.

While it's still uncertain how bad the coastal flooding might end up being, forecasters are getting concerned.

Yesterday, the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, in southern New Jersey said this storm might bring one of the Top Five highest tides on record, and suggested people with coastal property prepare now.

In New York City, some forecasters feared the tide might become as high as it was during Hurricane Irene in August, 2011. Irene wasn't as bad as Superstorm Sandy a year later, but Irene still flooded parts of Lower Manhattan.

Again, nobody is sure how bad any coastal flooding might be, but it's definitely something to watch

SEVERE WEATHER

As the storm begins to get it's act together near and north of the Gulf Coast Thursday some severe thunderstorms and possibly even tornadoes could break out. If that happens, the best chance is in Louisiana, western Mississippi and maybe southern Arkansas.

As the storm moves east, there's an uncertain chance of more severe weather in Florida. That prospect is iffy since they'e already had enough with the tornadoes and severe thunderstorms and damaging winds over the past week or so.

ICE AND FREEZING RAIN

There will be a transition zone between the heavy snow to the north and rain to the south and east as this storm gets going along or off the Carolina coast.

It looks like there could well be a zone of freezing rain -- maybe a lot of it -- in the Southeast. I'm not sure yet, but the best bet looks to be in much of North Carolina. Maybe southern Virginia, too. There is a chance that enough freezing rain will accumulate in some areas to bring down lots of trees and power lines.

Forecasting ice storms this far in advance is particularly tricky. This IS something to keep an eye on though.

FLOODING

As it's developing the storm will dip down toward the Gulf of Mexico (as I noted in the severe weather section above) When it does that, it will pick up boatloads of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Nor'easters tend to also draw a LOT of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean as they develop. Waters just off the Eastern Seaboard are much warmer than normal. That means the storm will be able to draw even more moisture into its system than normal, since warmer water is more easily drawn into weather systems.

That opens up the possibility of flooding in southeastern North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia.

It's been an incredibly wet winter in that section of the country, so it wouldn't take much to set off some flooding.

That said, although flooding is always dangerous, this will fall well short of a mega flood disaster, like the one that struck South Carolina last fall. 

SNOW

Yes, we have to talk about the snow. Remember how I said in the flooding section that the water off the East Coast is unusually warm, and the storm can thusly draw in more moisture than usual.

When that big moisture load hits the cold air north and west of the storm, the snow would become particularly heavy. That's why everyone is so excited and panicky over this potential storm. Because the snow could come down harder than it does in a "normal" nor'easter.

The first winter storm watch for heavy snow with this storm was issued for much of West Virginia. You'll see those watches and alerts spreading a lot during the day today and tomorrow.

I wouldn't be surprised to see isolated snow totals of up to three feet in the mountains of West Virginia, western Virginia and maybe North Carolina.

The National Weather Service office in Washington/Baltimore appeared ready as of mid-morning to issue a blizzard watch for later Friday and Saturday. 

In some areas, the snow will be wet and heavy. And possibly mixed with freezing rain. That would cause widespread power failures in the most affected areas. Again, it's too soon to pin down precisely who gets the most snow, who gets the dry, powdery snow, and who gets the more dangerous wet and heavy stuff that knocks down trees and power lines.

Sorry, northern New England snow enthusiasts.
It's still looking you''re going to miss out on
the upcoming nor'easter, but you did get a bit of
snow yesterday, as seen in this photo taken
Tuesday morning in Colchester, Vermont. 

There are snow lovers here where I live in northern New England. Miracles can happen, but it still looks like northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and western Maine are going to sit this storm out

Southern New England is going to be living on the edge. I'd hate to be a meteorologist in places like Massachusetts and Connecticut right now. The northern edge of the precipitation is going to have a sharp cut off between heavy and light.

If the storm goes literally just 20 miles north or south of where it is forecast to go, areas in southern New England that are forecast to get light snow could get dumped on, or areas that are forecast to be buried could get next to nothing.

By the way, if, on the day before a nor'easter, you forecasted it to go 50 miles west or east of where it actually goes, you've still done an excellent forecasting job with these notoriously fickle storms. It's nearly impossible to get the path right within a margin of 20 miles.

There's still going to be a lot of updates on this storm as forecasts become more refined.

As I noted yesterday, there's a lot of hype out there. And a lot of information to digest, just in this blog post alone.

If it looks like you're going to get hit with this storm, just relax, chill, make whatever preparations local forecasters tell you to make. And then ride it out at home where you're safe and warm - unless you're right along the coast.

A few places might end up getting a truly memorable storm, we'll have to wait and see. But it's winter, not the end of the world. So enjoy the ride.

Big Nor'easter This Weekend: Facts Vs. Hype

Quite a few areas in the eastern United States
 might look something like this by the upcoming weekend
because a nor'easter is now expected for the region. 

By now, a lot of you have heard rumors about a big nor'easter that will be The End Of The World Snowpocalypse, if you believe the hype and the people trying to get more and more social media clicks for fun and profit.

The truth is, that yes, it looks like parts of the East Coast are in for a big nasty snowstorm, and it could get fairly wild in spots. But DON"T count on everyone from Florida to Maine to be covered in 80 feet of snow or something.

Let's just get into what we can tell you with any scientific and realistic basis:

WHAT WE KNOW:

It looks almost certain there will be a strong and strengthening nor'easter along or just off the East Coast starting Friday and into the weekend.

It's quite likely somebody is going to get a lot of snow.  At this point, it looks like the Mid-Atlantic states are in for the heaviest accumulations, but that could change.

If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say West Virginia, Virginia, parts of Maryland, southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey might get the most snow out of this.

Those areas could easily get a foot of snow, and two feet of snow in some areas in that region are not out of the question. Again, that could change as the track of the storm becomes more certain.

At this point, it looks like the worst of the storm and most of the snow would miss northwestern Pennsylvania, northern New York, most of Vermont, northern New Hampshire and northwestern Maine. Again this could change. A few computer forecasting models do bring somewhat heavier snow further northwest into these regions. Others don't We'll have to wait and see how this plays out

In any event, don't cry too hard, northern New York and Vermont skiers. Today, the mountains in those states will get their third light to moderate snowfall since Saturday. The snow is coming in small doses, but it adds up.    

Here's a National Weather Service map
showing the expected strong nor'easter along
the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. 

If you live along the coast from North Carolina to Maine, listen to forecasts and coastal flood advisories.

Since the waters along and off the coast are abnormally warm, this storm could conceivably get stronger than even some forecasts indicate. That would mean the possibility of strong winds, high tides and battering waves

WHAT TO DO ABOUT THIS:

1. Watch: Continue to monitor forecasts if you live on the East Coast or in the Appalachians. I'd follow the National Weather Service or a local meteorologist or weather forecaster in your area that you trust. and know has a good reputation. Don't trust the social media hype machine.

2. Be Ready: Just in case, get ready but don't panic. This isn't the end of the world. It couldn't hurt to swing by the grocery store if you're low on food in the house. It might be tricky to drive to the store at the height of the storm in the worst hit areas.  If you're that type, it also wouldn't be the worst idea to stock up on wine or beer or hot chocolate or anything that makes you warm and happy in the winter.

3. Fuel: t also can't hurt to swing by the gas station to fill up your tank and make sure there's enough fuel to heat the house. The fuel delivery people aren't thrilled about going out in big snowstorms to make emergency deliveries.

4. Change Happens: Know the forecast is certain to change between now and when the storm arrives. That doesn't mean  meteorolgists are clueless. It means that nor'easters are notoriously tricky to forecast. Some small parts of every nor'easter forecast are wrong. Sometimes big parts of the forecast are wrong.

That means there's a chance that some areas now targeted for very heavy snow might not get it, and some areas outside the expected heavy snow zone might get more than we now think. Also, some areas along the coast could get rain or a mix involved, too.

5. Tis The Season: It's winter. Deal with it. Big snowstorms are part of the bargain during most winters, even in "warm" places like Virginia and Washington DC. Just be smart about it, don't take unnecessary chances on the roads, have some teenager shovel your driveway if you're heart is iffy and you're out of shape.

6. Attitude Is Everything: Enjoy it. If you get a big snowstorm and you don't like snow, there's nothing you can do about it. Except change your attitude. Download some very funny movies to watch during the snowstorm.

Have a snowball fight with the kids. Impress the neighbors with an immense snow sculpture. Let your dogs out into the snow, wait until they do something stupid in the drifts.  Take a video of their antics and put it on YouTube.

If you wanted a lot of snow and don't get it out of this storm, chill. There will always be new snowstorms later this winter, or next winter. Wait and you shall receive.

Social Media Hyping NYC Tropical Storm; Don't Buy It

One forecasting model has a tropical
storm near NYC around Aug 2
but is likely an inaccurate prediction.  

If you hear that a nasty tropical storm is going to strike somewhere near New York City or Long Island on or around August 2, take it with an ENORMOUS grain of salt.

Some computer models come up with some sort of system like that about that time, but a lot of them do not.

Computer forecasting models are pretty good, but are notoriously unreliable when trying to determine  the strength and location or even existence of a tropical storm or hurricane nine days ahead of time.

One recent run of the European model has a tropical storm or hurricane hitting the North Carolina coast, the heading north toward Long Island.

Most of the other forecasting models are not showing this. Something very different, and very likely much more benign, might be along the East Coast then. Maybe there will be a cold front and a few thunderstorms, maybe not. It's way too soon to tell.

I suppose some sort of tropical system could form then near or off the U.S. coastline, but if it does, nobody REALLY has an idea where yet.

Every time a model does predict something like this a week and a half out, some of the more hyper weather geeks on social media go into alarm mode. I guess it's good for Web hits.

To be fair, most of the responsible weather geeks I've seen on social media are giving this tropical storm idea the same kind of skepticism I'm giving here, so that's a good thing.

I suppose for the next week, it will be fun to see if computer forecasting models come around to this idea of a tropical storm, but right now, I'm totally doubting it.

The time to pay attention is just a few days before the supposed storm. If, three days before it hits, the forecasts continue to predict it, then perk up. But for now, go back to your summer doldrums.

The Winter Polar Vortex Hysteria Is Back! (Sigh)

Accuweather's winter forecast: Don't
assume this is a forgone conclusion  

If you read the headlines this week, you could be forgiven for thinking we're all going to freeze to death in the dark amid an incredibly harsh winter coming up.

The headlines are dramatic:  .

Salon's headline screams: "Bad News America: The Polar Vortex Is Coming Back!"

Here's AOL News: "US Winter Forecast: Cold, Snow to Seize Northeast; Wintry Blasts to Slick South."

The occasion for all these doomsday winter headlines was the predictions for the nation's winter weather from AccuWeather, a leading private weather forecasting firm. 

AccuWeather, too, had a scary headline, exactly the same one AOL News used for their online report.

Before you start panicking over the Killer Polar Vortex, don't. It's all hype.

If you delve into the details,  AccuWeather's winter forecast didn't strike me as all that dire.

"The polar vortex, the culprit responsible for several days of below zero temperatures last year, will slip down into the region from time to time, delivering blasts of arctic air.

'I think, primarily we'll see that happening in mid-January into February, but again, it's not going to be the same type of situation we saw last year, not as persistent,' Accuweather.com Expert Long Range Forecaster Paul Pasterlok said."

In other words, the eastern United States is going to get hit by something that happens most winters. Occasionally, the jet stream will carve out a huge southward dip or bulge, which is what many people referred to last winter as the Polar Vortex.

When this southward bulge sags toward the United States, we get a nasty arctic cold snap.

As Pasterlok from AccuWeather pointed out, what made last winter so exceptional and awful wasn't the fact the polar vortex or southward bulge in the jet stream or whatever you want to call it happened.  It just stayed put forever.

Usually, arctic outbreaks come and go pretty quickly. Last winter, the vortex just got stuck, so we never really got much in the way of breaks from the cold. It just kept sending the frigid air from Canada our way from December through March.

If this winter is more typical, we'll get bad cold waves that last a few days, interspersed with periods of more pleasant weather.

I have no idea how this winter will shape up. To be honest, nobody does. Not even AccuWeather, really.

Long range forecasts are notorious for being at least a little off.  That's no slam against Accuweather. It's just the nature of the beast. The science is great at forecasting a day or two out. It's also OK at predicting general trends decades from now, as we keep hearing predictions of a worsening global warming

But forecasting a few months out is dicy.

Another wild card is El Nino, a periodic warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean that seems to be getting under way, at least sort of, right now.  Often, but not always, an El Nino makes winters warmer in North America than they otherwise would be.

Just as a parlor game, though, we can take a look at other forecasts for this winter. NOAA/National Weather Service predicts a warm winter in the western third of the nation and to a lesser extent in New England, and a chilly one in the southeastern United States.

Meanwhile, The Weather Channel and WSI forecast a cold East Coast winter, and one that is not quite as bad as last year in the Great Lakes region.

Here's How To Cut Through The Hype And Get Real Weather Forecasts.

New York City might get a dusting to an inch of snow Sunday night, February 8.     

One of the maps that set of a panic
about a 30" blizzard in NYC
that actually was not going, and didn't happen.  

I'm sharing this totally unremarkable weather news because the New York City area is still recovering from a giant snowball of ugly hype last week that left New Yawkers scared out of their minds that they would get buried beneath a blizzard with three feet of snow.

The cause of those fears was a comedy of errors involving people on the Internet hyping an unreliable forecast computer model that indicated a big storm, a website mistakenly running a year old story about a snowstorm forecast, and other weather bloggers and online types misinterpreting what was going on.

A National Weather Service office in New Jersey actually had to put out a special statement to the public telling everyone to just chill, that they weren't all going to die in Blizzard To End All Blizzards.

So, going forward, as you (hopefully!) keep reading my weather blog, and all those other weather blogs, weather web sites and other weather media, here are some tips to help you sort out fact from fiction as you try to sort out the forecasts.

1. Hype A Week In Advance Is Probably Wrong: Ever since some, but not all computer models in 2012 accurately forecast the extreme destruction from Hurricane Sandy a week in advance, people have been hanging their hats on long range computer generated forecasts.

The truth is, those long range forecasts, though they can give a rough idea of what MIGHT happen several days in advance, usually don't reflect what actually ends up happening. So people like me might show you a long range forecast, just for kicks,  and I'll remember to tell you to take it with a grain of salt. Use long range forecasts as vague information, and nothing to bank on.

2. Some Bloggers Hype More Than Others: The dirty little secret is that weather geeks like me and most of those other weather gurus out there get a rush out of big, huge nasty storms. Actually, a lot of non weather geeks do, too. That explains the popularity of "weather porn" all those videos on the Internet showing extreme weather events.

So, as you look around for your sources of weather information, watch for patterns. If a weather forecaster seems to repeatedly yell and scream the Big One is coming, and time and time again the storm doesn't end up amounting to much, it's time to look for a better forecaster.

On the other hand, if a forecaster who usually doesn't get too overly excited about upcoming storms starts yelling and screaming and pulling his or her hair out over a forecast, pay attention. Things could actually really get bad.

3. Beware the Lingo: For whatever reason, certain weather terms or nicknames get seized by social media these days and become overused, or worse, wrongly used.  The best recent example is the so-called polar vortex in January.

Not every cold snap is a polar vortex  

As you might remember, the polar vortex is a spinning pool of very cold air that pretty much always sits up there by the North Pole. Sometimes, the polar vortex heads south and ends up close to or even in the northern United States.  That's a fairly normal and well known phenomenon among meteorologists.

But the polar vortex got hyped so that it looked to some people as if it were a very rare, extreme thing. Worse, the term "polar vortex" gets used as shorthand for any spell of chilly, wintry weather that hits anywhere.

The other morning, when it was snowing in New York City, I heard a host on one of those network morning shows refer to the snow as the "polar vortex."  It wasn't.

So, if you hear an unfamiliar term, absolutely seek out reputable sites for explanations of what they mean if you are curious. But don't necessarily pay attention to the first reference you see. And if you're not all that curious, just tune out those fancy schmancy words and just listen to the parts of the forecast that tell you how hot, cold, rainy or snowy it's going to get.

4. Results May Vary:   Even the best forecasts by the most responsible, most accurate, most knowledgable weather bloggers, geeks and outlets will have some minor glitches.

But believe it or not, the forecasts often aren't wrong at all.  While a forecast might prove accurate for the vast majority of the area the prediction covered, local effects will cause some towns to be outliers.

A classic example: Last week, the National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont said most of Vermont would get a snowstorm amounting to 4 to 12 inches. I passed along that information in my blog.

It turns out the forecast was remarkably accurate, except for in a teeny, tiny portion of northwestern Vermont. That part of the state was only supposed to get 2 to 5 inches of snow, but got 6 to 10 inches instead. Local variations aren't always picked up in forecasts.

5. "Wrong" Forecasts Aren't Always Wrong: Weather is imprecise, so the level of detail a lot of people want in forecasts are just not possible. Here's an example: Say the forecast for your area was for a 60 percent chance of showers, and it didn't end up raining. Was the forecast wrong? Probably not.

Showers are inherently hit and miss, and the forecaster might have believed that 60 percent of the forecast area would get hit by showers. You just happened to be in the 40 percent of the area that stayed dry.

Also, a forecaster often can't tell you the precise moment the thunderstorm will arrive, the exact second the sky will clear, or the intensity of the snowfall at 1:30 p.m. Thursday. They can give you a general idea, within a few hours,  and you'll just have to live with that. Sorry.

6. We Don't Know Exactly How To Formulate Weather Warnings.  When people are surprised by the level of destruction and danger in a storm, you sometimes hear. "We had no idea it was going to be that bad."

That might be because storms are often warned about repeatedly and most of the time, they don't turn out to be that horrible. Dangerous, yes, but not apocalyptic. So people tune out the warnings to some extent. Then when a truly horrific storm comes, people are surprised.

It's hard to gauge the psychology of the general public and how they react to warnings. That's not an insult. It's just an example of human nature.  Some forecasters are experimenting with enhanced wording in some warnings, rather than using the same boilerplate for every storm.

For instance, weather forecasters will often detect a spinning thunderstorm and issue a tornado warning, even if a tornado has not quite formed yet. There's a strong potential, but no guarantee one will form, and people need to be informed.

But if the forecasters know a tornado is on the ground, and it's really super big and strong, they'll start throwing around words like "extremely dangerous and life threatening" and "TAKE SHELTER IN A BASEMENT IMMEDIATELY"

The bottom line: Always heed the instructions in severe weather warnings, even if the weather doesn't seem at first to be that bad. If it turns out to be a false alarm, what's the harm? You heard a tornado warning and you went to your basement and there was no tornado.

Is your life ruined because you wasted 20 minutes hiding in the basement? Of course not. But if there was a tornado, the life you saved might have been your own.

7: Feedback is Excellent, and Vote With Your Feet: If you don't like the way I or any other weather geek presents weather news tell us! Most of us are not just SEO junkies trying to get web hits at any cost. Almost all of us want to do a good job. If you think of ways we can do better, offer suggestions.

Also, if one particular weather blogger, forecaster or outlet seems irresponsible to you, don't reward them. Don't view them. Don't click on their sites. Move on, and find a competent weather geek.

Believe it or not, there's a lot of us out there.